00:00:00.000The Republican Party under the Trump administration, but largely speaking for a lot of Republican leadership, is really, really, really online.
00:00:10.000All the American people were looking for in 2020 was a sense of normalcy, and Joe Biden decided to blow up the country by opening the border wide and spending oodles of money and keeping the country shut down for an additional year.
00:00:22.000All the American people wanted in 2024 was some sense of normalcy.
00:00:26.000And President Trump came in, and then he proceeded to unleash a wild tariff war and then follow that up.
00:00:32.000With a bunch of picking various apples from the tree.
00:00:35.000Some of those apples I'm not so fond of, and I think they have worms in them.
00:00:38.000But the sense of constant chaos is not the friend of the Trump administration.
00:00:44.000I think one of the reasons that you've seen both the right and the left run off the rails here, the Democrats and the Republicans, is they are super duper duper online.
00:00:51.000Every single election in the country right now, because the elections are so close, because the polling data is sometimes skewed, people are tending to operate off vibes.
00:00:59.000So for the left, the vibe is the ascendant DSA.
00:01:02.000We must mirror the priorities of the ascendant DSA.
00:01:05.000We'll see how that works out for them.
00:01:06.000I don't think it's going to work out well for them.
00:01:07.000For the right, there's been this move over the course of the last several years to suggest a vibe shift, particularly among young male Americans.
00:01:16.000And those are the people that we are supposed to aim for.0.70
00:01:18.000If you're a conservative or Republican, you must aim for the Gen Z male.0.70
00:01:23.000It's going to be the most right wing generation.0.98
00:01:35.000If you wish to build a victorious coalition, you have to determine where the votes are.
00:01:40.000You have to, John Dillinger, the bank robber, said the reason that he robbed banks is because that's where the money was.
00:01:47.000If you are going to build a political coalition, you have to go where the votes are.
00:01:50.000And that means that if you have a choice between winning over 100% of a tiny constituency or winning over 60% of a gigantic constituency, you pick the latter.
00:02:00.000That's quite important because, again, I think the Republicans have been drawn increasingly into a vibes based politics that is not helping them very much.
00:02:10.000Even the popular policies of the administration have gotten way, way, way too online because, again, All the vibe discussion about how the podcast bros put Trump over the top in 2024.
00:02:20.000So there is some new data, and it is not salutary to this idea that Republicans really ought to be programming to the young males if they wish to win future elections.
00:02:30.000So, a couple of pieces of evidence along these lines.
00:02:35.000So, Puck has a piece looking at the podcast sphere.
00:02:43.000And what it finds is that the podcast sphere is not particularly popular with Americans, period, right now.
00:02:49.000Including among young Americans, by the way.
00:02:52.000According to Puck News, Joe Rogan had a 53% favorable rating among young men at the beginning of Trump's second term.
00:03:01.000Andrew Tate has a negative 30% net approval rating.
00:03:06.000Tucker Carlson's net favorable rating has dropped by 12 points as well.
00:03:11.000According to Peter Hanby, writing over Epoch, John Della Volpe, the director of the youth polling from Social Sphere, has been tracking young voter sentiment for a quarter century, making him one of the nation's foremost Gen Z broologists.
00:03:24.000If Joe Biden's honeymoon lasted arguably eight months until the Afghanistan withdrawal, Donald Trump's honeymoon only lasted about 90 days with young men, Delavolpi said.
00:03:32.000Once he started talking about tariffs, we could see how quickly the mood changed.
00:03:36.000And we saw that more younger people believed he would have a negative, not a positive, impact on their lives.
00:03:43.000At the time of Trump's inauguration, according to the data, young men believed by a 33% margin that Trump would make a positive difference in their lives.
00:03:50.000Today, by a negative 35% margin, they say his presidency is making their lives worse.
00:03:55.000That is a jaw dropping 68 point swing.
00:03:58.000Away from the president on the question, effectively erasing support from one of the core groups that got him elected in 2024.
00:04:04.000Support for the GOP is now at 33% among young men.
00:04:36.000Because, again, if you're building for the future and you're Republican, you might want to build around a set of principles and approaches that are broader in nature than programming into X, programming into podcast to stand.
00:04:49.000And yet, the Republican Party, and in particular, the Vice President's Shadow 2028 campaign, they're steering directly into the notion.
00:04:59.000That young Americans, young male swing voters, must be pandered to.
00:05:02.000Those are the most important people in America.
00:05:04.000If you lose them, you lose everything.
00:05:07.000We'll get to more on this in a moment.
00:05:08.000First, you know, you have one asset that's probably worth more than all your other assets, maybe combined, and that would be your home title.
00:05:14.000Now, you're not thinking about how somebody can take the value from that because, hey, I mean, you own your home.
00:05:17.000Nobody's going to like jack it up on wheels and take it somewhere.
00:05:20.000But the way that criminals gain access to the asset value of your home is they forge your name on a signature sheet and then they basically steal your home title and they start borrowing against it.
00:05:29.000Well, you can stop them from doing this by checking out.
00:07:13.000Okay, so in order to see what populations ought to be targeted with particular policies, you actually need to compare the actual vote shift from 2020 to 2024.
00:07:23.000So in 2020, Hispanics made up 13% of the total vote.
00:09:40.000What you see is that the Hispanic swing was worth well over 250% more than the Gen Z male swing.0.66
00:09:50.000That the middle aged male swing was literally worth twice as much as the Gen Z male swing.0.71
00:09:55.000So, if you have a choice between targeting Gen Z, Are targeting middle aged men or Hispanics, you should choose the middle aged men and the Hispanics rather than the Gen Z men.0.97
00:10:15.000It's a seven point swing among millennial men.
00:10:17.000That was worth about 1.2 million net votes.
00:10:19.000And senior men were worth about 800,000 net votes.0.55
00:10:23.000So, bottom line is if you are spending all day looking at Gen Z men, at the podcast, at Stan Sphere, at the vibe shift, if that's what you're looking at, You are missing the vote.
00:10:35.000In fact, if you look at the net swing of non college educated Gen Z white men, right, this would be the high school educated white men of Gen Z, the people we're told are the most important by the podcast bros.
00:10:44.000They made up 3.4% of the electorate in 2020 and 2.9% of the electorate in 2024.
00:10:50.000They voted heavily for Trump in 2020 by 26 points.
00:10:53.000They voted 35% swing for 2024 for Trump.
00:10:59.000That is about 400,000 net votes, raw net votes.
00:11:02.000So if you're aiming at non college educated white men, In Gen Z, rather than say the Hispanic shift, you are aiming literally for one tenth the shifting population.
00:11:18.000Because if Republicans wish to be victorious, they need to what we call broadcast, not narrowcast.
00:11:24.000They need to stop worrying so much about, oh no, I'm going to alienate a couple of podcast bros.
00:11:29.000Oh no, Joe Rogan might get mad at me, or Tucker Carlson might get mad at me.
00:11:33.000Oh no, what's going to happen if I lose podcasts to Stan?
00:11:38.000What's going to happen if people on X get really, really mad?
00:11:41.000It turns out that's a terrible electoral strategy.
00:11:43.000It's a terrible electoral strategy for Democrats, too.
00:11:46.000It turns out, Democrats, just I don't want to give notes to the people who I hope lose, but Democrats, if you program to the pod Save America Bros, that is a bad strategy.
00:11:56.000If you decide that Blue Sky is your crowd, if you decide that Abdul Al Sayed is the future of your party, it's not going to go great for you.
00:12:02.000That's not where the American people are.
00:12:06.000What would be better for America is if both parties started digging where the votes are.
00:12:09.000They're all digging in the wrong place.
00:12:13.000Why don't you actually go after where the American people actually are?
00:12:15.000What an amazing video you just watched!
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