00:00:00.000So, speaking of these campaigns, one of the big narrative ops that is happening right now is this idea that Democrats are running away with this thing.
00:00:07.000Every single headline is Democrat tsunami, Democrat tsunami.
00:00:27.000We got to talk about the polling here because, again, there's lots of focus on the polling.
00:00:31.000I myself cite polling an awful lot because Again, data is data, but you actually don't have to read the data.
00:00:37.000And so let's start off with what the polling says, and then we'll talk about the garbage in, garbage out problem.
00:00:41.000Basically, there are three problems when it comes to polling.
00:00:44.000Okay, one, you could have a bad poll with a bad design.
00:00:47.000The way that pollsters actually do polls is they try to figure out exactly what the mix of voters is going to be, and there are a bunch of assumptions baked into the cake.
00:00:54.000So if you think there's going to be heavy black turnout, you oversample black voters, or you adjust for the black population in your voting poll to adjust for the general population of the voting pool.
00:01:06.000You have to have a model of what the voter turnout is going to look like.
00:01:09.000And then you backfill your poll results from each particular group into that poll.
00:01:14.000So you can be totally off based on that.
00:01:16.000So number one, you can have polling misses.
00:01:18.000Number two, humans don't know how to read polls.
00:01:21.000So just to give you a quick example, let's say that you have a 4844 poll in favor of a particular candidate and it says margin of error four points.
00:01:42.000You see a 48 42 number, you're figuring, and that is a blowout in favor of the 48 candidate against the 42 candidate.
00:01:48.000Let's say that same race has a margin of error of four.
00:01:53.000That same poll is a margin of error of four.
00:01:54.000The way you need to read that poll is that it could be four points off in any direction, meaning that 48 42 race could actually be a 46 44 lead.
00:03:24.000Now, as you aggregate polls, the margin of error goes down because your sample size is going up, right?
00:03:30.000The number of people who are polled in an average of polls is larger than any individual poll.
00:03:35.000And so your margin of error, meaning like the amount that it could be wrong, goes down and shrinks.
00:03:40.000But bottom line is that if a race is within two points inside the Real clear politics polling average, which is in three.
00:03:47.000That needs to be treated as a dead heat.
00:03:50.000That would not mean the polling is wrong.
00:03:51.000It means you don't know how to read a poll.
00:03:53.000And then finally, you get to the problem of the day.
00:03:56.000And the problem of the day right now is garbage in, garbage out.
00:03:59.000So there's an unbelievable story that is now breaking about the garbage that is polling in some areas.
00:04:08.000So there is a fake pollster called Wedgwood Polls 50 plus one, which is the sort of revision of Nate Silver's 538 over at the New York Times.
00:04:18.000They report Last week, we received a credible tip from a trusted source that Wedgwood Polls might be faking data.
00:04:25.000We had received tips about Wedgwood in the past, but this particular tip had something crucial that others didn't.
00:04:31.000So 50 plus one investigated by running an identical poll to Wedgwood's back end data, and they uncovered a bunch of red flags, including unnaturally clean sample data that lined up perfectly with Mississippi demographics, impossible user IDs, scrambled timestamps, and outdated serial numbers.
00:04:45.000So 50 plus one reached out to Wedgwood polls.
00:04:48.000They said, quote, we reached out to them to ask who they were and confirm the methodology statement on their website.
00:04:53.000We were given two names, Jack Sims and Andrew Prater.
00:04:56.000We were able to independently confirm that Sims had previous experience in the polling industry and reviewed their methodology statement in detail.
00:05:02.000It is not atypical for a pollster to leave an existing firm, form their own, and self fund some surveys to build a reputation.
00:05:08.000We had no reason at the time to believe this case was any different.
00:05:10.000Wedgwood operated as if it were a legitimate polling firm, including collecting money from donors to conduct crowd funded polls and sharing raw data survey with 50 Plus One on October 15th, 2026.
00:05:23.000Well, a few days later, 50 Plus One reached out to Wedgwood with a request for comment on an investigation we had conducted into their alleged survey research.
00:05:30.000They did not respond to our request, but instead posted a public statement on social media admitting they had been fabricating data.
00:05:37.000They also reached out directly in social media DMs minutes before publishing their memo with an official comment F you, plus the name of an individual not affiliated with 50 plus one.
00:05:48.000Here is the screenshot of Wedgwood Polls DMing the New York Times reporters saying F you.
00:05:55.000So Wedgwood Polls is now admitting that it was all fake and they're claiming it was an experiment.
00:06:02.000Quote Wedgwood Polling, an experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight, and overall low barrier to entry.
00:06:09.000In the modern political polling industry makes this public statement.
00:06:12.000Having previously worked in the polling and research sector, we washed as the public's trust in polling eroded alongside a rise in unverified, low quality methodology.
00:06:21.000We wanted to test a sample hypothesis.
00:06:23.000How easy is it for an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary?
00:06:32.000Despite having no history, formal credentials, or real data behind the vast majority of our releases, Wedgwood polling was added to major polling aggregators, including The New York Times, 50 plus one, and Vote Hub, and repeatedly treated as a legitimate data source.
00:06:45.000Our fabricated numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms, including being cited on air and in reporting by outlets such as MS Now.
00:06:55.000The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation.
00:07:04.000And so they basically are now claiming that they made up all these fraudulent polls as a way of exposing how bad the polling industry is.
00:07:12.000There are a lot of screenshots of them basically soliciting business and all this.
00:07:16.000So it sort of sounds like the excuse of the guy who's been searching kiddie porn on his computer and then says that he was just doing it for research.
00:07:24.000In any case, Wedgwood's statement concludes Wedgwood polling was never intended to sway an election or permanently mislead the public.
00:07:37.000If a fictional entity run by a small group of industry veterans can be integrated into major polling averages and cited by major news organizations, the standards for how polling data is vetted, aggregated, and reported must change.
00:07:48.000Okay, so the New York Times did cite Wedgwood 15 times between June and October.
00:07:57.000It was cited by Decision Desk 17 times in that same period.
00:08:03.000Now, again, they are trying to rerun all of their polling averages.
00:08:09.000But their polls always tend toward the Democrats.
00:08:12.000So if your polling average, right, we were talking about polling averages before, if your polling average included an LCIAD poll in Michigan that showed him up a week and a half ago plus six, they're just making that up.
00:08:27.000They have Troy Jackson up four in Maine.
00:08:30.000That was included in the poll averages.
00:08:31.000Now it makes a huge difference in some of these states that aren't routinely polled.
00:08:36.000So if it turns out that one of your four polls is just totally made up by a Democrat Oppo firm, Well, that's going to skew the poll average.
00:08:42.000And then that is going to generate people saying, well, the race is already over.
00:09:59.000But tens of thousands of people poured their hearts, time, energy, hard earned money into something they believed in for a year and a half, and it was treated like a game.
00:10:07.000Our volunteers gave their all, and then some.
00:10:10.000I felt like I had let so many of them down.
00:10:12.000If this teaches us anything, don't get complacent and don't trust the polls.
00:10:16.000Lock in, sign up for a canvassing ship, leave nothing to chance over the next two weeks.
00:10:21.000And meanwhile, another polling founder named Adam Carlson says that Wedgwood went to great lengths to lie privately about what it was that they were doing.
00:11:05.000It means that if you are reading the polling data and all the polling data is very close, the only thing you know about all of these elections is that they're close.
00:11:17.000If you want to hide in the crowd, if you want to have an impact on the polling average, but you want to hide in the crowd, like you're going to fake the polls.
00:11:24.000All you have to do is change the sample sizes in various areas.
00:11:27.000If you're going to do that, you can easily skew the polling average.
00:11:31.000The only poll that matters is the one that actually includes actual voters voting on the day of the thing, plus the absentee ballots and mailings and all the rest.
00:11:39.000The only poll that matters is the election itself.
00:11:41.000So don't fall for any op that tells you that these elections are foregone conclusions or that the polling means a tsunami or anything like that.
00:11:51.000And right now you're watching as people rush to group because let's say that you're a pollster and you have an outlier poll.
00:11:57.000Very often, you'll ditch the outlier poll in order to ensure that you're not the one with an egg on your face if it turns out that you're wrong.
00:12:05.000Better to stick with the group average.
00:12:07.000Folks, we talk a lot about the midterms here on the program, and you want to keep up with all the info, right?
00:12:11.000Well, there is a great way to do that.
00:12:18.000Interactive maps, a March Madness style bracket challenge where you can make and save your picks for the most contested races in the nation.
00:12:23.000All of our midterm related coverage in just one place.
00:12:26.000And then on election night, You can join me and the other hosts live from Nashville for all night coverage as we break down every race, every map, every call, what it all means for the country.
00:12:35.000So either we will be happier than you expect or we will be, you know, at the bottom of the bottle.
00:12:47.000Meanwhile, again, the, the odds on the Senate are very, very close, even in the prediction market.
00:12:52.000So CalShee, one of our sponsors, it shows this is not by any stretch of the imagination, like a blowout in favor of the Democrats.
00:13:01.000And these sort of late breaking movements in the prediction markets, I do not think is reflective of anything but the narrative power that's being presumed.
00:13:11.000Basically, if you go back to February, from February all the way to the beginning of October, the Calchee markets had this thing dead even.
00:13:19.000Today, the Calchee markets suggest that Democrats essentially have a 66% shot of winning the United States Senate.
00:13:27.000Again, I think that's overstated, and I think that is a reflection of people who are putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to the narrative.
00:13:35.000All of which brings us to the nature of the current race.
00:13:38.000So, you have been told, for example, that Michigan, El Sayed, has a clear advantage.
00:13:41.000Michigan, you know, no big deal, Michigan.
00:14:45.000So on October 7th, the Egyptian chapter.
00:14:47.000As I said, any organization engaged in political violence or calling for political violence is engaged in terrorism, and I would support those designations.
00:14:54.000I have not heard you disavow them yet.
00:15:54.000No, we're not good because I need you to explain why you disavow it.
00:15:57.000And more importantly, All the other things that you've done and commented on.
00:16:00.000You know, you just shouting, I declare bankruptcy like Michael Scott in the middle of the office doesn't actually mean that you've declared bankruptcy.
00:16:16.000The reason Al Said is doing this, put aside the actual merits of what he's saying, the reason he's doing this is because it was damaging him in the polls.
00:17:11.000I've always tried to be on the right side of that.
00:17:13.000But I also understand that, like, if that's your experience with somebody whose name is like mine, that leaves a terrible taste in your mouth.
00:17:21.000Okay, so he's not a gas station, Abdul.
00:17:23.000I mean, the stuff that he is saying about Arabs in Michigan, by the way, the person who owns the small shop in Michigan behind the glass is doing more for Michigan than anything Abdul El Sayed has ever done.
00:17:34.000That guy is, you know, I assume that guy is not a supporter.
00:17:35.000Supporter of terrorism, and that he's not going to occupy a seat in the Senate in order to destroy the country.
00:17:41.000The reason he is doing all of this, the reason that he is making these moves, is because he is in danger of losing.
00:17:48.000Now, again, every so often, the real Abdullah el Sayed escapes the laboratory.
00:17:53.000So, for example, he's now dismissing wait times at medical offices because who cares?
00:18:24.000That's okay, according to Abdul El Sayed.
00:18:26.000Also, he says that the Second Amendment only allows you to own a musket, which we'll see how that goes over because Michigan is a very gun rights friendly state.
00:18:35.000I'm going to swear an oath to the Constitution.
00:18:37.000The Constitution has the Second Amendment in it, but the Second Amendment, just so we all are clear, Even the most conservative folks, they hew to this idea called originalism.
00:18:47.000And originalism is the idea that you should interpret the Constitution in the context in which the Constitution was written.
00:18:54.000When they promised the right to bear arms, they had muskets.
00:18:59.000So, yeah, everyone should have equal rights to a musket.
00:21:02.000And meanwhile, on the left, Shadi Hamid, who is out there constantly defending radical Islam, says it's totally fine if Abdul El Sayed's mom was involved with the Muslim Brotherhood.
00:21:56.000DSA, the Democratic Socialist of America, is not simply a tool for popular candidates to run on the Democratic ballot line and become popular Democrats.
00:22:05.000We are not here to do PR for the Democratic Party.
00:22:19.000The agenda is to ultimately build socialism, to retool this capitalist system to yield more prosperous outcomes for all and not just those who have capital, not just those who simply care about profit.
00:23:17.000And he said, Giving people the resources that they need to live a dignified life.
00:23:22.000So there's this idea that socialism is like, It's like a, I guess, economic strategy so that everybody lives in poverty, right?
00:23:32.000That's how the right wants you to think about socialism.
00:23:35.000But actually, it's that they want nobody to live in poverty and that there's enough wealth in this country that no one should have to, but it's being hoarded by like 10 guys.
00:23:44.000And so, if we redistributed the wealth, made them pay taxes, we could solve a lot of problems.
00:25:11.000It's about your national movement to destroy the United States.
00:25:14.000That's the thing that you want, which is why Zoran Momdani is now saying that it is critical to New York City that El Sayed win in Michigan.
00:25:22.000Now, I was under the impression that Michigan and New York City are two completely separate jurisdictions and that the federal Senate has little to do with the governance of New York City, a locality.
00:25:33.000Well, I wonder why Momdani thinks it's important for El Sayed to win.
00:25:40.000When you think about Dr. El-Sayed's campaign, I often go back to the way that he describes it.
00:25:47.000Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all.
00:25:51.000Those are concerns that ring true for Michiganders.
00:25:55.000They're also concerns that ring true for New Yorkers.
00:25:58.000And I think that his victory and the victory of Democrats across this country is of critical importance to our city because what it also indicates is a willingness to chart a new course in Washington that has working people at the heart of it.
00:26:25.000The entire narrative that is being driven by the DSA and is being promoted by the legacy media is that the United States sucks and requires fundamental transformation.
00:26:34.000And what has to be the most delicious piece of the day is a piece from Wired.
00:26:39.000It is titled, They Fled Trump's America and Now They Regret It.
00:26:42.000Quote, in the autumn of 2024, Annie was ready for something new.
00:26:46.000She was living in the southern United States when her husband received an unexpected job offer that would move them to a town just outside London.
00:26:56.000While researching their new destination on Reddit, TikTok, and Instagram, Annie found Americans eager to explain how enchanting life in the British suburbs could be.
00:27:03.000All the benefits of a small town, just a short train ride away from one of the biggest cities in the world.
00:27:07.000The more she read, the sunnier her expectations about the UK's healthcare system, social culture, and European transportation systems became.
00:27:15.000They moved before the end of the year, but the reality of life in the UK was dramatically different from what she'd imagined.
00:27:20.000Quote, there are huge misconceptions about access to quality health care, standard of living.
00:27:25.000The quality of life is significantly lower than in the United States.
00:27:29.000She cited challenges she experienced with the NHS's maternity care.
00:27:34.000Things in the UK that are considered luxury items are very common in America, like a dishwasher and a dryer, she adds.
00:27:39.000She also found it very common that people just mocked Americans.
00:27:44.000I found it particularly surprising how people feel so comfortable mocking my accent and culture, even in a workplace environment, she says.
00:27:50.000The UK is very much a place of it is what it is.
00:27:52.000But as Americans, we're taught to improve and strive for better things.
00:29:15.000And listen, our most wealthy and famous fall for this.
00:29:20.000In July 2025, Ellen DeGeneres said she was moving to England because of Trump.
00:29:26.000And then she just bought a $27 million mansion in Montecito.
00:29:29.000Rosie O'Donnell went to Ireland and now she's back, unfortunately.
00:29:33.000So it turns out that all the same people who hate the United States and talk about how terrible it is and how we're responsible for all the world's ills and so unequal and so unfree and it's fascistic, they go somewhere else and they realize, oh, wait, what did I do?
00:29:49.000This is why I say the best corrective to anti Americanism is an airplane.
00:29:53.000Take it somewhere for more than like a week, more than just visiting the tourist sites.
00:29:56.000Like, go live somewhere else for two months and see how it works for you.
00:30:27.000Quote As indicated in my previous response to your inquiry, this is Kathy Engelbert, the WNBA commissioner.
00:30:34.000WNBA officials are responsible for enforcing rules and assessing fouls and other violations that occur during gameplay.
00:30:40.000Based on that review, the league may upgrade fouls or take disciplinary action where appropriate.
00:30:44.000Fans in WNBA arenas are governed by the WNBA Fan Code of Conduct, which requires that they enjoy the basketball experience free from disruptive behavior.
00:30:52.000This is talking about why he was thrown out of a game recently for literally standing up with a t shirt.
00:30:57.000Quote With respect to your questions regarding eligibility, only women are eligible to play in the WNBA, and the individuals you cite in your letter are both men.
00:31:08.000And it remains one of the great hilarious idiocies of modern society that we have to pretend we don't know these things.
00:31:16.000Our friend Matt Nuclear, who does a streaming show with us where he debates folks, he was touring with TPUSA and he was accosted by a male to female transgender.
00:32:47.000Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free or check out this crazy story here.