00:00:11.000When it comes to key issues like health care tariffs, cost of living, doing what's best for ordinary people, what you see is the Democrats have a lead pretty much everywhere, except on being an effective senator.
00:00:22.000There, Republicans are running even in Alaska, Ohio, they're running ahead in Kansas.
00:00:26.000On immigration, Republicans are running ahead across the board.
00:00:29.000Okay, the issues where Republicans are really getting creamed in states like Texas or Ohio are actually on issues like doing what's best for ordinary people in Texas, plus 14 for Taylorico, or data centers, or healthcare.
00:00:46.000Okay, but this does not mean that this is a blowaway election for Democrats, not yet.
00:00:52.000So there's a current New York Times Siena poll, and it is demonstrating again a fairly large lead for Democrats in some states that are really more like a dead heat.
00:01:05.000So, the new New York Times stand up poll among likely voters shows Tala Rico up six, 51 to 45.
00:01:11.000It shows Maria Paltola up on Dan Sullivan in Alaska by seven.
00:01:15.000It shows Sherrod Brown up three on John Huston.
00:01:17.000It shows Ashley Hinson up one on Josh Turek.
00:02:11.000Now, again, one of the things that is pretty clear about the polling bias is that it is quite rare that you have a polling bias toward Republicans.
00:02:20.000In fact, over the last nearly 20 years of election cycles, the only case in which there is a Republican bias to the polls was 2012.
00:02:31.000That's where it was a little bit biased toward Romney and Obama outran Romney.
00:02:36.000But since then, heavy Democratic bias in 2014, heavy Democratic bias in 2016, 2018.
00:02:42.000Supposedly unbiased in 2020, gigantic democratic bias.
00:02:50.000But one of the points that Sean Trend over at Real Clear Politics makes is that when Nate Silver declares unbiased, that is an average of the poll.
00:02:57.000So it does not account for polling in a few important races being totally incorrect.
00:03:02.000So unbiased doesn't mean zero error, it means across the board errors all in the same direction.
00:03:07.000So it means that there are certain errors that were in favor of Democrats in certain states and in favor of Republicans in other states.
00:03:13.000Now, even if there were to be a blue wave this November, Sean Trent points out that would not be predictive of what happens in 2028.
00:03:19.000In 2010, the GOP picked up 63 seats and then Obama got reelected in 2012.
00:03:24.000Okay, so how are the midterms actually going to go?
00:03:28.000Well, according to the Harvard Caps Harris poll, the generic congressional ballot is actually a dead heat right now.
00:03:35.000The likely midterm voter breakdown has Democrats up two points.
00:03:41.000It means all of these are very, very, very close races.
00:03:44.000And when you spend your days demoralizing Republicans and telling them, All is for naught.0.64
00:03:49.000See, Democratic demoralization, the El Sayeds or the Mamdanis, that is demoralization with the system.0.96
00:03:54.000And so you get Democrats to go vote for it because, again, they are the ones who are outside the system.0.51
00:03:59.000But if you're a Republican, supposedly, like supposedly Tucker is, and you're spending all day just ramming down this idea that you were betrayed 80 years ago and everything has gone wrong since, and Donald Trump is a tool of Israel and all the rest of this kind of stuff, if you say all of that and you drive down the polling numbers, you could cost Republicans the Senate, which, again, would be insane.
00:04:21.000JD Vance was interviewed by Sean Hannity, the vice president, and he says, guys, you need to go vote.
00:04:27.000I would love to have a Democrat party that we could work with.
00:04:30.000Not that we're going to agree with on every issue, but where you could come and find some common sense solutions, like Newt Gingrich did with Bill Clinton back in the mid 90s.
00:04:38.000Era of big governments over and a welfare bill.
00:05:03.000He says, guys, you need to go out and vote and you need to show them that the nuts shouldn't win.
00:05:08.000Well, you know, one element of making sure the nuts don't win is kicking the nuts out of your own party and making sure that they can't demoralize the people inside the tent.
00:06:01.000Stop overpaying for subpar wireless service.
00:06:04.000Stop buying the nonsense that you have to walk into some sort of wireless store and they'll offer you a smorgasbord of options, then you just get the most expensive one.
00:06:24.000So the president has now announced that he is going to give all adult citizens $5,000.
00:06:31.000Our country is doing so well under Republican leadership.
00:06:35.000That only I can make you this promise.
00:06:38.000If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I'm going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America $5,000.
00:06:50.000And Republicans can do it, and Democrats can't.
00:06:54.000Okay, well, then he announced, by the way, that he was going to send $100 checks from the Medicare Improvement Fund to be sent to 20 million seniors.
00:07:02.000And just sending people money is not going to win you elections.
00:07:11.000President Trump sent out $1,200 COVID relief checks through the CARES Act in 2020.
00:07:15.000He sent another $600 COVID relief check in December 2020.
00:07:18.000He sent $1,776 as a warrior dividend check to $1.45 million active duty military right before Christmas in 2025.
00:07:27.000So, this would not be the first check the president has tried to issue.
00:07:30.000It has had basically zero electoral impact at this point.
00:07:33.000But here is why Republicans ought to vote they ought to vote because if Republicans lose the Senate, things get very, very dicey very quickly.
00:07:44.000He has considered retirement, but it's going to be too hard to predict what the political situation will be.
00:07:48.000So, in other words, if the Republicans lose the Senate, it's going to be hard for Alito to retire and be replaced by somebody who's a textualist.
00:07:55.000If the Republicans win the Senate, he'll likely step down and you will get a 55 year old, 50 year old judge who agrees with Alito on the issues replacing Alito.
00:08:03.000That's a pretty big incentive for Republicans to go vote.
00:08:06.000You decided not to retire this year despite, I think, some pretty intense pressure from Republicans who thought, well, Republicans are in control of the Senate, so it would be more easy, easier to confirm.
00:09:00.000It's too hard to predict how, for anybody, and particularly when you reach a certain age, what your situation will be a year from now, two years from now, and so forth.
00:09:47.000Because remember, if Republicans lose the Senate, Democrats will just hold whatever nomination takes place until the next presidential election cycle, even if it means a year and a half.
00:09:57.000Okay, so control of the Supreme Court is up for grabs, especially because, again, Justice Roberts is very often a swing vote in favor of the left wing of the court.
00:10:16.000Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free or check out this crazy story here.