00:00:31.000That would be a blowout for Democrats.
00:00:34.000With that said, I think that some of the stuff you're seeing in the prediction markets and some of the stuff you're seeing in the poll averages is being skewed by outliers.
00:01:37.000So, pretty much all the battlegrounds right now are margin of error.
00:01:40.000Ohio seems to have fallen outside the margin of error, but maybe not because the last couple of polls in Ohio show Sherrod Brown maybe a three point lead over the current incumbent, John Huston.
00:01:53.000So, these elections are still really close in the Senate.
00:01:56.000But when you aggregate all of the polls and you include these outliers, you end up with some pretty bad polling data.
00:02:01.000And we've seen some very, very big individual polling misses.
00:02:07.000And I want to point them out because I think that what you're seeing right now is a narrative that's being created by some of these outliers.
00:02:13.000If I just told you those poll averages that every one of those races is within margin of error, that sounds basically right.
00:02:18.000If I say Texas is within margin of error, that's uncomfortable that that's basically right.
00:02:22.000If I say Iowa, Michigan, these are within margin.
00:02:26.000But if I tell you that there is a poll that shows Kansas within margin of error, I'm going to go no on that.
00:02:34.000So the latest Emerson poll, Has the Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of incumbent Roger Marshall in the Senate race by two points?
00:02:43.000Donald Trump won 57% of the vote in Kansas in 2024.
00:02:48.000I do not think that you're going to end up with a Kansas Democrat in that seat.
00:02:51.000That is what we call an outlier poll happening well prior to the election.
00:02:57.000Right now, in the South Carolina polling, Darlene Graham Norton, the sister of Lindsey Graham, is only ahead of the Democrat Annie Andrews by 3.5 points in the polling average.
00:03:07.000That's only because the polling average includes about two polls.
00:03:10.000Donald Trump won almost 60% of the vote in South Carolina.
00:03:14.000And Darlene Graham Norton just inherited her seat from her brother who died suddenly and was quite popular with South Carolina Republicans.
00:03:24.000No, I don't believe that we're within margin of error in South Carolina.
00:03:27.000I don't believe that we're within margin of error in Florida.
00:04:20.000I think the goal of some of these outlier polls, in some cases, is to deliberately drive down the Republican voter turnout.
00:04:26.000The reason I say this is because we have seen this game before.
00:04:30.000The prediction markets, taking outlier polls into account, suggested that Abdul El Sayed was going to swamp Haley Stevens in the Michigan Senate primary.
00:04:38.000She ended up losing by bare thousands of votes out of a couple of million cast.
00:04:45.000If they adopted all these push polls suggesting that El Sayed was the runaway favorite, would more people have shown up for Haley Stevens?
00:04:51.000You saw the same thing happen in Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong, the DSA candidate, was supposed to wipe out her opponent in that particular race, and he ended up coming back and winning with basically no public support.
00:05:03.000So, when you see outlier polls that just sound outside the realm of reality, and again, I'm not doubting that there are certain polls that have Tallarico ahead in Texas, but I do doubt that Texans are going to favor James Tallarico by six in Texas.
00:05:16.000Some of these polls are designed, again, to drive down voter turnout.
00:05:20.000And we have seen voter error, we have seen polling error in some of these states before, right?
00:05:24.000That Iowa poll that's showing Ashley Hinson down by eight points to Josh Turek.
00:05:28.000Okay, well, I mean, the Ann Seltzer Iowa poll showed.
00:05:33.000Harris winning Iowa by three points in 2024, days before Trump won the state by 13.
00:05:40.000And it turns out, by the way, some of these polls are just made up.
00:05:42.000The Francesca Hong supposed victory was never a reality.
00:05:47.000There was a firm called Meridian that said that she was leading Democrat David Crowley in the primary by over 20, and she lost by 0.5%.
00:05:54.000The firm then announced after the fact the poll was fabricated as part of a social experiment.
00:05:59.000So there are a lot of reasons to think Republicans are not going to perform particularly well here.
00:06:30.000The really big reason that Republicans are in bad shape right now is the president has horrible approval ratings.
00:06:35.000Right now, According to the Nate Silver polling average, Donald Trump is underwater to the tune of 38% approval rating, 59% disapproval rating.
00:06:45.000But what's most interesting about President Trump's chart is if you look at President Trump's net approval rating, what you see is a fairly consistent downward line since Liberation Day.
00:06:57.000You don't actually see the sort of step function that you see normally with presidents, events are shocking the system.
00:07:03.000Joe Biden, if you look at Joe Biden's approval, what you can see in Joe Biden's presidential approval, just by way of contrast, As you can see, that it dumped essentially with the Afghanistan withdrawal in late 2021, and then it just stayed there.
00:07:17.000You draw a horizontal line through Joe Biden's approval rating, and it basically just stagnates around 40% for the rest of his presidency.
00:07:24.000If you look at Obama's approval rating from 2009 to 2017, what you can see here is that, again, kind of a horizontal line that applies across his presidency.
00:07:34.000He drops down to about 50% fairly early on, and then he's occasional below 50%.
00:07:40.000He kind of sticks around the 45 to 50% range his entire presidency.
00:07:43.000Go back to that Trump chart, and what you see is a steady, even decline in his approval rating.
00:07:50.000The reason that's happening is because essentially President Trump made a large scale promise.
00:07:56.000He was going to bring costs down, life was going to become more affordable.
00:07:59.000And then, since Liberation Day, which is when the American people started to perceive that Trump had other priorities other than affordability, since then he has not bucked that idea.
00:08:10.000And so, the American people, particularly Republicans, by the way, have grown increasingly disenchanted with the lack of focus on the fact that inflation has not been conquered.
00:08:20.000And that the prices aren't going back to 2020 prices.
00:08:22.000So, overpromise, underdeliver would be the problem for President Trump, which is why you haven't seen him hit that bottom yet, where he just sort of hangs around at 40% the way that Joe Biden did, or hangs around at 45% the way that Barack Obama did.
00:08:35.000If Republicans do get shellacked, it will largely be due to President Trump's approval rating.
00:08:38.000Presidential approval ratings are, in fact, heavily correlated with midterm outcomes.
00:08:46.000That's a reality, more so than economic statistics.
00:08:49.000But for those who are trying to sell you the soap, That basically the president's foreign policy is to blame for all of this.
00:08:53.000That's the thing that really did all of this.
00:08:55.000There is not a lot of support in the public approval ratings to suggest that that is the thing that has been the major problematic factor for President Trump.
00:09:04.000Also, again, don't take too seriously the warnings from the media that Democrats are going to wipe out Republicans.
00:09:10.000I do think some of that is a demoralization op designed to get Republicans not to show up to the polls in 2026 and turn that into a self fulfilling prophecy.
00:09:18.000What an amazing video you just watched!
00:09:21.000Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free or check out this crazy story here.