The Ben Shapiro Show - Trouble With The Curve | Ep. 988

00:00:00.000 As America flattens the curve, questions arise about what comes next, the media beclown themselves with a variety of foolish narratives, and Alyssa Milano discovers due process. 0.68

00:00:08.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:09.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:11.000 Today's Ben Shapiro Show is sponsored by ExpressVPN News.

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00:00:24.000 Slash Ben.

00:00:25.000 Alrighty.

00:00:26.000 Well, time for your coronavirus updates because once more, this is the only thing happening on planet Earth in the news at all.

00:00:32.000 And it's the only thing anybody cares about, which makes perfect sense.

00:00:34.000 The United States has passed 11,000 total deaths.

00:00:37.000 This comes basically a week and a half after we were less than 3,000.

00:00:41.000 The United States is seeing a significant curve in terms of cumulative deaths, but in terms of new cases, we are not seeing cumulative growth.

00:00:49.000 It looks more arithmetic than cumulative.

00:00:51.000 It's a percentage of the new tests that are being taken.

00:00:53.000 We are not seeing a sharp uptick in the number of new cases that are out there, more just an uptick in the number of cases that are identified as we are doing more testing.

00:01:02.000 Yesterday, New York saw 599 deaths according to Worldometers, which is the Johns Hopkins Rip.

00:01:09.000 Overall, the United States yesterday saw about 1,255 deaths.

00:01:13.000 These are not good numbers, obviously, but we are starting to see the curve flatten somewhat, and everybody is sort of optimistic.

00:01:20.000 Andrew Cuomo in New York, he said the data are hopeful but inconclusive.

00:01:23.000 At this point, here's the governor of New York.

00:01:25.000 It's hopeful, but it's also inconclusive, and it still depends on what we do, right?

00:01:33.000 These models all have a coefficient of what we do and how successful we are at social distancing, etc.

00:01:43.000 And from our decision-making point of view, it doesn't really matter if we've hit the plateau or not, because you have to do the same thing.

00:01:52.000 If we are plateauing, we are plateauing at a very high level.

00:01:56.000 And there's tremendous stress on the healthcare system.

00:01:59.000 Okay, so he has said that the coronavirus deaths have been flat.

00:02:02.000 That's the plateau that he is talking about.

00:02:04.000 The idea is that if you keep having that number of deaths day after day after day, that's bad.

00:02:08.000 Eventually, you want that number to go down.

00:02:10.000 We have not hit the peak yet.

00:02:11.000 The peak is expected to hit sometime later this week.

00:02:14.000 The study that everybody had been using in order to determine exactly how many deaths there would be is, of course, the University of Washington study.

00:02:21.000 And they had projected that Overall, peak resource use in the United States would not happen until April 15, 2020.

00:02:28.000 In New York, they were expecting that this thing would happen just a little bit later this week.

00:02:32.000 It was going to precede the rest of the United States. 0.87

00:02:36.000 They have downgraded, as I mentioned yesterday, the number of total deaths to 82,000 in that University of Washington model.

00:02:43.000 Andrew Cuomo says the coronavirus deaths are indeed flat, which is, again, good news.

00:02:46.000 I mean, if it were continuing to go up, then that would be a little bit scarier.

00:02:49.000 And again, the number of coronavirus deaths, if we were to plateau exactly where we are in the United States, that would be some very, very good news because we are expecting that this thing is supposed to kill some 3,000 people by the middle of the month in a single day.

00:03:01.000 And right now, again, we're at about 1,300, which is ugly, but it is nowhere near 3,000.

00:03:06.000 Here's Andrew Cuomo pointing out the coronavirus deaths have been flat in New York City.

00:03:11.000 4758, which is up from 159, but which is effectively flat for two days.

00:03:20.000 While none of this is good news, the flattening, possible flattening of the curve is better than the increases that we have seen.

00:03:34.000 Big question that we're looking at now is what What is the curve?

00:03:42.000 And we've been talking about cases increase, increase, increase until they don't.

00:03:47.000 When they stop increasing, then what happens?

00:03:52.000 And that is the real question is where we go from here.

00:03:55.000 So what you're seeing from cities all over the nation is an attempt to keep people in their homes that sometimes takes very dystopian forms.

00:04:02.000 We've seen people being pulled over in places like Pennsylvania for literally just going for a joy ride, like literally just getting in a car and driving.

00:04:09.000 There's nothing wrong with that.

00:04:10.000 It's absurd. 1.00

00:04:11.000 One of the big problems when you have an emergency is that petty tyrants often emerge and then use their petty tyranny as an excuse in order to do really stupid things. 0.99

00:04:18.000 There's nothing wrong with getting in your car and going for a drive with your kids and then driving right back home. 0.92

00:04:22.000 I do it with my kids all the time because anybody with kids understands you must do this or your kids will go completely mad, rip all of the Windows off the hinges and start hitting each other with them.

00:04:31.000 You need to get them outside.

00:04:32.000 If there's no place to go outside, sometimes you throw them in the car and you go for an hour drive.

00:04:35.000 That is not a big deal.

00:04:36.000 You have not hurt the social distancing curve. 1.00

00:04:39.000 All of this is very stupid. 0.97

00:04:40.000 It has also taken the form of some pretty freaky video in New York City where the police have been using drones to tell people to socially distance. 1.00

00:04:48.000 I get it.

00:04:49.000 I do.

00:04:50.000 But it's kind of weird.

00:04:52.000 Here's this video from New York City.

00:04:53.000 Now, do I think that that's particularly do I think that that's particularly effective, having drones that are flying above walkways and telling people to socially distance?

00:05:22.000 Presumably not, and I look forward to Judge Dredd arriving to do justice in the middle of all of this.

00:05:28.000 Now, the reason that obviously there's the amount of focus that there is on these death totals and on the curve is the fact that The experts keep saying that we can only lower the curve if we continue to keep people indoors.

00:05:40.000 What they are afraid of is that people are going to say, oh, it looks like things are all better, and then they rush out of doors and they infect each other over and over.

00:05:45.000 So Dr. Deborah Birx, who's of course leading up the coronavirus task force for the White House, she said the death totals could be a lot lower than we were seeing from University of Washington, but only if we work hard and only if we pay attention to the orders to socially distance and stay at home.

00:05:57.000 Dr. Fauci and I both strongly believe that if we work as hard as we can over the next several weeks, that we will see potential to go under the numbers that were predicted by the models.

00:06:11.000 And I think that is really two things.

00:06:14.000 It is the extraordinary compliance of the American people and the diligence that they have mitigated with.

00:06:21.000 Because remember, we're doing this strictly by behavior change.

00:06:26.000 And as she says, there's not a lot of tracking in place right now.

00:06:30.000 Basically, I guess the goal is that we lower the curve again below the point where we overwhelm the hospital system.

00:06:35.000 As the University of Washington study shows, that actually is likely.

00:06:38.000 We are now likely to not exceed the requirements of the hospital system, actually, as we adjust these totals downward.

00:06:46.000 But the question is going to be what happens afterward.

00:06:49.000 And listen, I'm all for the hopeful language.

00:06:51.000 I like it.

00:06:52.000 I think that we ought to continue to maintain this sort of thing until we have the data.

00:06:52.000 I think it's good.

00:06:56.000 The problem is that now that the data seems to be showing that we are flattening faster than we actually thought was going to be possible, how fast can we actually get back to some semblance of normalcy?

00:07:07.000 Dr. Anthony Fauci also sounds it off alongside Deborah Brooks.

00:07:10.000 He said, we too are hopeful.

00:07:13.000 I don't think anyone has ever mitigated the way I'm seeing people mitigate right now.

00:07:18.000 This has never happened in this country before.

00:07:21.000 So I am optimistic, always cautiously optimistic, that if we do what I've been talking about over the past few minutes, we can make that number go down.

00:07:31.000 I don't accept every day that we're going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

00:07:37.000 I think we can really bring that down, no matter what a model says.

00:07:43.000 Okay, so everybody is suddenly optimistic in a way they were not optimistic just a little while ago.

00:07:47.000 We'll get to what the studies are showing, what the data are showing, and what are the shortcomings of those data.

00:07:51.000 Because as it turns out, all the models are basically flawed and everybody knew this going in.

00:07:56.000 And what that creates is a sort of unfalsifiable thesis.

00:07:59.000 Because Every time the data are adjusted downward, we just say, OK, well, we're adjusting the model as new data comes in.

00:08:04.000 And then the idea becomes, OK, well, but you modeled with a certain level of certainty what exactly everything would look like in the counterfactual if we had not all locked down or if we had done sort of partial lockdowns or if we had let the healthiest people go to work or if we had taken the elderly and we had basically segmented them off and the vulnerable and segmented them off.

00:08:21.000 Like, we were basing our action on these models, and as the models change, our actions should change.

00:08:28.000 But our actions seem not to be changing, even as the models change, because nobody has set out any sort of reliable counterfactual in that case.

00:08:35.000 To give a brief example, let's suggest that the United States is experiencing well under 80,000 deaths.

00:08:40.000 Let's say the United States comes in at, say, 50,000 deaths, or 40,000 deaths.

00:08:44.000 Like, right in line with the actual numbers that you get every year from the flu.

00:08:47.000 Now, of course, the flu Those number of deaths happened when we were all going out and infecting each other.

00:08:51.000 And this is happening in the absence of us going out and infecting each other.

00:08:54.000 But let's say we get 40,000 deaths.

00:08:55.000 There will be two narratives that emerge.

00:08:57.000 And this is the highest likelihood here is that we actually do a pretty good job in flattening the curve.

00:09:01.000 It's fewer deaths than expected in the first wave.

00:09:02.000 And then you have one side that says, okay, so the models were totally wrong.

00:09:06.000 And we destroyed the entire American economy.

00:09:08.000 And we went to 20% unemployment on the basis of models that were wrong.

00:09:13.000 Why did we pursue it this way?

00:09:14.000 And the other side says, well, if we hadn't pursued it this way, then millions would be dead.

00:09:17.000 And there's not going to be any way to bridge that gap at all, right?

00:09:20.000 Because you can't live in a counterfactual universe because we actually don't know the counterfactuals.

00:09:24.000 The models were supposed to provide the counterfactual, but how are you supposed to trust the model's worst case scenario?

00:09:30.000 When they're moderated worst case scenario, meaning even if you stay indoors, 100,000 people are going to die.

00:09:34.000 What if the numbers come in way under that?

00:09:36.000 Well, that sort of discredits the entire model.

00:09:38.000 And this is one of the problems that we're going to have going forward, because one of the ways that the experts and the folks who are in charge and the scientists are going to suggest that we stay indoors is, again, suggesting the counterfactual.

00:09:50.000 And a lot of people are going to look at the counterfactual and say, right, right, but you suggested a counterfactual like a few months ago, and you said two and a half million people were going to die.

00:09:56.000 And then you said, if we all stay indoors, still a quarter million people are going to die.

00:10:00.000 And so we all did stay indoors, and 40,000 people died.

00:10:03.000 Or 30,000 people died.

00:10:04.000 Right?

00:10:05.000 And so, why should we take seriously your worst case scenario?

00:10:08.000 Like, what do you know that we don't?

00:10:10.000 And the answer is that a lot of the experts still know more than the average man.

00:10:12.000 I'm not proclaiming that I am an epidemiologist.

00:10:14.000 I think it's dangerous for anybody to proclaim that.

00:10:16.000 I still think the experts know a lot, but they don't know A lot.

00:10:20.000 And they're not being transparent about what it is they don't know, and that actually is going to undermine faith in the experts at a time when the experts are suggesting that we have to listen to them no matter what, right?

00:10:20.000 Too.

00:10:28.000 I mean, that's the biggest problem here.

00:10:29.000 If you have somebody who proclaims expertise on a subject, and then they're wrong on a bunch of things.

00:10:34.000 And they haven't told you where the uncertainties lie.

00:10:37.000 It makes everybody pretty nervous about the expertise.

00:10:39.000 Sometimes it makes people feel that the institution itself is discredited, and that's a danger.

00:10:42.000 It's why radical transparency is necessary, and you need an explainer out there explaining the models.

00:10:47.000 You need an explainer out there explaining why we are doing what we are doing.

00:10:49.000 But the truth is, I'm not sure that the politicians or the economists or the health care professionals, the epidemiologists, actually know full scale why we are doing what we are doing in the long run.

00:10:59.000 We'll get to that in just one.

00:11:00.000 Like this really is catch as catch can.

00:11:02.000 This really is that we are betting that maybe worst case scenario happens and a couple million people die.

00:11:07.000 And so we sort of just said, lock it down.

00:11:10.000 Right.

00:11:10.000 That was the first move.

00:11:11.000 Just lock it down.

00:11:11.000 And now that that has been made the extreme.

00:11:14.000 Where do you go from here?

00:11:15.000 That's the really tough question.

00:11:17.000 I keep harping on that because it's pretty important that we end what is going on right now.

00:11:20.000 I mean, Tony Blair of the Labour Party, right?

00:11:22.000 He was saying, listen, the NHS is going to collapse if the economy collapses.

00:11:25.000 So you talk about the health care service in Britain.

00:11:27.000 You can't keep taking out endless debt and then paying for the health care service because what if the debt is not sellable?

00:11:32.000 We'll get to more of this in just one second.

00:11:34.000 First, let us talk about the fact That there are lots of things in life you get wrong.

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00:12:47.000 Okay.

00:12:49.000 Let's take a look at some of these models.

00:12:51.000 So first of all, an MIT economist is already saying that the curve is basically flattening, which again is a lot earlier than originally thought.

00:13:00.000 According to Robert Verbruggen over at National Review, he is suggesting that an MIT economist concludes that the curve is indeed flattening in New York City and that does bode well for Actually, you can see the trend lines.

00:13:15.000 It's flattening in New Jersey.

00:13:16.000 It's flattening in Michigan, even though Michigan obviously is having this scary uptick in number of deaths.

00:13:21.000 LA has been basically flattening.

00:13:23.000 None of the curves look exponential in terms of confirmed cases.

00:13:26.000 All of the curves look Like this.

00:13:29.000 All the curves look like they are flattening out.

00:13:31.000 And that's a very good, they look parabolic.

00:13:33.000 That's a very good thing.

00:13:34.000 I mean, that's exactly what we are looking for.

00:13:38.000 The growth rate in new cases continues to slow.

00:13:40.000 In New York, the change in the growth rate, day over day, is 4.1% down.

00:13:45.000 California, 4.1% down.

00:13:47.000 Washington, 4.7% down.

00:13:49.000 Michigan, 7.6% down.

00:13:51.000 Massachusetts, 6.7% down.

00:13:53.000 The slowing transmission is beginning to reduce deaths.

00:13:55.000 In New York City, the number of daily deaths has actually been decreasing Since the weekend, which indicates a decreasing strain on medical systems and reduces worries that hospitals will be overwhelmed with coronavirus cases.

00:14:05.000 Now remember, there's a lot of worry about ventilators being, having to be rationed.

00:14:09.000 There wasn't, there weren't gonna be enough ventilators on order.

00:14:12.000 Well, Admiral Brett Giroir, who is the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, he says, listen, everybody who needs a ventilator has gotten one so far, right?

00:14:19.000 There's not been anybody who's walked into the hospital and somebody says, okay, sorry, all our ventilators are used.

00:14:23.000 You're gonna have to die here in the waiting room.

00:14:24.000 Here's Admiral Brett Giroir.

00:14:27.000 We look at ventilator use granularly every single day in every single state and down to the hospital level.

00:14:35.000 So we have been able to meet and easily meet all the ventilator requirements that have been brought to us by the state.

00:14:41.000 No one has not gotten a ventilator that needs a ventilator.

00:14:46.000 And as far as we can project, looking at all models, every person who needs a ventilator will get a ventilator.

00:14:53.000 Daniel Tenray-Rosari is the author of this piece at National Review, looking over sort of the record there.

00:14:58.000 By the way, it is interesting, the focus on ventilators.

00:15:00.000 We'll get to the hydroxychloroquine question in just a little bit, because people are still going nuts over Trump mentioning hydroxychloroquine.

00:15:06.000 They're saying, oh, it's an unconfirmed treatment.

00:15:08.000 Let me explain something about ventilators.

00:15:10.000 Once you're on a ventilator, you are in serious, serious trouble.

00:15:13.000 This Sunday, we had on a doctor from University of California, San Francisco, and we talked specifically about what ventilator use means.

00:15:22.000 He said anywhere from 50 to 90% of people on ventilators will die.

00:15:26.000 Okay, so the idea that the ventilator is sort of the cure-all?

00:15:28.000 I understand it's the last gasp measure.

00:15:30.000 But you know what is not a last gasp measure, at least not to that extent, is hydroxychloroquine, right?

00:15:34.000 You start to degrade, and they give you hydroxychloroquine.

00:15:36.000 Okay, you're right.

00:15:37.000 There have not been any clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine.

00:15:40.000 One of the reasons there have not been any clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine is because it's basically unethical to have two people in a room and then randomly select one of them to get hydroxy, right?

00:15:49.000 You can't do that.

00:15:50.000 Instead, you have to ask people what they are willing to do.

00:15:52.000 Informed consent is still an element of clinical trials.

00:15:55.000 And you can't actually tell people who are dying, "We're not going to give you this experimental drug that is basically off-label." You can't tell people you're not going to do that.

00:16:05.000 So while the media are fulminating over hydroxychloroquine, they are simultaneously suggesting that ventilators are the most important single thing that any hospital can have at this point.

00:16:14.000 The fact is, ventilators are important.

00:16:16.000 But you know what else is super duper important?

00:16:18.000 Coming up with mitigating medications at this point.

00:16:21.000 And if that means it's experimental, if that means that the only evidence for it is anecdotal so far, well, the last thing you want is to not have that and then end up on the ventilator.

00:16:29.000 The ventilator is not where you want to be.

00:16:31.000 In a second, I want to go back through the question of modeling.

00:16:34.000 Because again, it's based on these models that we are making the decisions.

00:16:37.000 And that's okay, right?

00:16:38.000 As models change, we need to update our decision-making processes.

00:16:42.000 And some of the solutions that have been put forward are just not realistic.

00:16:44.000 Like when people are talking about contact tracing in the United States.

00:16:47.000 The question is how you contact trace in a country of 330 million people, where people are fairly used to not being monitored by the government.

00:16:53.000 South Korea has had contact tracing in place since 2003, since the SARS outbreak.

00:16:57.000 In the United States, what are we going to do?

00:16:58.000 Ramp up contact tracing?

00:17:00.000 Now when we have community infection?

00:17:03.000 And when the testing is not complete?

00:17:05.000 If you're talking about ramping it up to the point where you have a million tests a day for people who are symptomatic, and that you are then going to contact trace when the number of cases goes all the way down to zero, then you could talk about it.

00:17:17.000 But that seems fairly unrealistic.

00:17:18.000 I mean, it seems fairly unrealistic that we're going to get to the point where we are contact tracing every single person who has coronavirus in the United States when we have in the United States, at last count, 350,000 cases of coronavirus that have just been identified and tons of people who are asymptomatic, maybe up to five to ten times that number.

00:17:34.000 It's gonna be pretty damned difficult.

00:17:36.000 So, we'll get to more of this in just one second.

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00:19:15.000 Okay, so, as I have mentioned, because the models have been So variable.

00:19:20.000 It makes it difficult for people to trust experts when experts say you need to stay in your house, and especially when they say things like you're supposed to stay in your house indefinitely and social distance from your own family inside your house.

00:19:30.000 So what we have seen is that the models have been dramatically downgraded.

00:19:32.000 So the model that's been getting the most press in the United States is the University of Washington model.

00:19:36.000 I talked about this pretty extensively yesterday.

00:19:38.000 They dramatically downgraded over the weekend the number of expected national deaths from 94,000 to 81,000.

00:19:43.000 They also really, really dramatically downgraded the number of hospital beds they thought would be necessary.

00:19:48.000 But originally, they thought that the number of hospital beds that were going to be necessary, that that was going to actually be a lot, a lot higher.

00:19:57.000 They thought the number of hospital beds that was going to be necessary, it could stack up at something like 260,000 by August 5th.

00:20:03.000 something like 260,000 by August 5th.

00:20:06.000 Instead, they decreased that number to 140,000, which is a decline of 120,000.

00:20:13.000 ICU beds needed at peak, they went from 39,727 down to 29,210, which is a decline of over 10,000 ICU beds.

00:20:21.000 Invasive ventilators needed to peak they went down from 32,000 all the way down to 19,000.

00:20:25.000 Those are really significant changes in the in the data that they have been providing to us.

00:20:31.000 And so the question becomes why did the changes occur?

00:20:33.000 Well, the first thing to understand about that University of Washington model everybody is relying upon is it's a curve-fitting model.

00:20:38.000 So there are certain models that sort of attempt to model out what disease vectors look like.

00:20:44.000 By looking at particular factors and then speculating.

00:20:48.000 But the IMHE model actually attempts to just use data as it comes and then fit the curve to the data that's coming in.

00:20:54.000 So originally they were using the Wuhan data, then they were using the Italy data, and now as they're starting to get U.S.

00:20:59.000 data, it looks like U.S.

00:21:00.000 data is actually pretty different from Italy data and also from Wuhan data.

00:21:03.000 Robert Verbruggen has a good explanation here at National Review.

00:21:07.000 The IMHE model by contrast simply looks at what has actually happened elsewhere in the world during this outbreak and then uses that information to predict what will happen in the U.S.

00:21:12.000 how a virus spreads through a population based on a host of assumptions about how easily the disease jumps from one person to another and how often people come into contact with each other under various social distancing rules.

00:21:22.000 The IMHE model, by contrast, simply looks at what has actually happened elsewhere in the world during this outbreak and then uses that information to predict what will happen in the U.S. and individual states.

00:21:31.000 That means that the IMHE model is a lot more malleable because as new data puts in the curve itself changes, as opposed to as data comes in in the Imperial College model, you have to actually go in and change the factors that are being used in order to calculate that model.

00:21:46.000 So when the group released their new predictions, which came out just two days ago, they put out a big explanation, including a salient bit regarding deaths.

00:21:54.000 They said, at the time of our first release on March 26, the only location where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan City.

00:22:00.000 These data from Wuhan formed the basis of our estimation of the time, from the implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths.

00:22:06.000 One of the reasons that they were in fact saying that was a longer curve to peak day of deaths is because China was lying about its numbers.

00:22:12.000 They started seeing mass death very early and then it tailed off really fast, which is why what you saw in the updated numbers from the University of Washington model is a quick rise to apex and then a fairly steep decline from apex.

00:22:24.000 Since then, an additional seven locations in Italy and Spain with large coronavirus epidemics appear to have reached the peak number of daily deaths.

00:22:30.000 That'd be in Spain and then Italy.

00:22:32.000 With today's update, they say, we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appear to be peaking or to have peaked.

00:22:41.000 The time of implementation?

00:22:43.000 of social distancing to the peak of the epidemic is shorter than what was observed in Wuhan because China has been lying. 0.99

00:22:47.000 By the way, NBC News doing yeoman's work, parroting all Chinese propaganda. 0.78

00:22:51.000 They had a story out today that they tweeted out saying, America experiences over 1200 deaths.

00:22:55.000 China reports no new deaths.

00:22:57.000 Yeah, well, China reported no deaths at Tiananmen Square also. 0.81

00:22:59.000 So it turns out that a communist country is a lying country.

00:23:02.000 Also, they dramatically downgraded in this study what they thought hospital capacity would be necessary.

00:23:07.000 Originally, they suggested a ratio of 11.1 hospital admissions per COVID-19 death.

00:23:12.000 Now they're saying 7.1 hospitalizations per COVID-19 death.

00:23:16.000 And that means that what they were doing is they were just multiplying the number of expected deaths by the number of hospital admissions.

00:23:21.000 So you saw the rate of death go down and you saw the rate of hospital admission go down.

00:23:25.000 And so the result is fewer hospital beds needed and less of a chance of overwhelming the system.

00:23:30.000 Andrew Cuomo yesterday, by the way, said they don't have a hospital bed problem in New York City.

00:23:33.000 He said they might still have a ventilator problem, but that has not actually materialized in terms of being overwhelmed at this point.

00:23:39.000 And in terms of hospital beds, that apparently is not a problem anymore.

00:23:44.000 The uncertainty in the modeling is both a good thing in the sense that if the models were certain and right, that'd be very scary.

00:23:50.000 It's also a problem because if you are making all of your decisions off of variable models, Then there are going to be a lot of questions to be asked about how well those decisions are being made.

00:23:59.000 We'll get to more of this in just one second.

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00:25:16.000 Okay, so I'm not the only person who's having questions about the models.

00:25:20.000 Pretty much everybody at this point is having questions about the models.

00:25:23.000 According to the Associated Press, A statistical model cited by the White House generated a slightly less grim figure Monday for a first wave of deaths from coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., a projection designed to help officials plan for the worst, including having enough hospitals, staff, beds and ventilators.

00:25:35.000 The only problem with this bit of relatively good news, it's almost certainly wrong.

00:25:38.000 All models are wrong. 0.99

00:25:39.000 Some are just less wrong than others.

00:25:41.000 And those are the ones that public health officials rely on.

00:25:44.000 NASA top climate modeler Gavin Schmidt says the key thing you want to know is what's happening in the future.

00:25:48.000 Absence of time machine, you're going to have to use a model.

00:25:52.000 The latest projections show that anywhere from 49,431 to 136,401 Americans will die in the first wave, which could last into the summer, which is a huge range of 87,000.

00:26:03.000 So, again, these models are somewhat useful, but they are not extraordinarily useful because they are uncertain.

00:26:12.000 There's a huge range on them.

00:26:13.000 They're not great at modeling human behavior.

00:26:16.000 And so, and the biggest problem with the model, as I keep mentioning over and over and over with this UW model, is that it just goes until the beginning of August.

00:26:23.000 So it doesn't tell you what happens in a second wave.

00:26:24.000 And we are beginning to see, even while Italy is flattening, And even while there is consideration being put forward toward the reopening of places like Italy and Denmark, you're starting to see a second wave in Asia, according to the Economic Times.

00:26:39.000 The Japanese government may declare a state of emergency this week to contain a coronavirus outbreak.

00:26:43.000 Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister, is reportedly set to make a declaration for parts of Japan, including Tokyo, as the number of people infected with the virus continues to increase.

00:26:51.000 The news pushed up Tokyo stocks, with investors seeing the move as a positive for containing the outbreak.

00:26:57.000 Authorities reported 120 new virus cases on Sunday, so they're declaring an emergency in Japan, which until now had been fairly non-hard hit.

00:27:03.000 Also, in Singapore, they have been re-locking down in particular areas.

00:27:08.000 They're locking down dormitory complexes because people are coming in and reinfecting everybody.

00:27:13.000 So the big question is, what happens when you start to open this thing back up?

00:27:17.000 Meanwhile, Italy and Norway are beginning to look at easing their lockdowns after Denmark and Austria became the first two European countries to loosen restrictions as governments seek to gradually revive economies crippled by the containment measures without risking a second wave of infections, according to Bloomberg.

00:27:31.000 Italy, the original epicenter of the outbreak, has begun to plan for emerging from the lockdown.

00:27:34.000 Selected firms could open in mid-April, according to an official familiar with the discussions.

00:27:38.000 Norway may also move to ease restrictions, with a press briefing scheduled later on Tuesday.

00:27:42.000 Parts of Italy's agribusiness and health sectors and mechanical equipment companies linked to those industries could be allowed to restart operations, but protection for workers will be critical for each company involved, said a person who was talking on condition of anonymity.

00:27:55.000 After weeks of measures designed to limit contact between people, European governments are seeing growing evidence that shutting down much of modern life is containing the disease.

00:28:02.000 But the scale of the outbreak means officials need to weigh any attempts to restart parts of the economy against the risk of reigniting the spread.

00:28:09.000 Europe has been hardest hit by the pandemic.

00:28:12.000 Denmark is going to press ahead with cautious reopening.

00:28:14.000 They're going to start with daycare and primary schools on April 15th if the virus numbers remain stable.

00:28:18.000 The government will also start talks with business leaders on gradually moving employees back into offices, but with some restrictions in place for months to come.

00:28:27.000 So this is where the rubber's gonna hit the road.

00:28:29.000 It'll be fascinating to see what happens in these countries where they go back to some level of reopening.

00:28:34.000 Now, people are all over Sweden because Sweden has basically allowed people to continue going to restaurants.

00:28:38.000 You just don't go to the counter.

00:28:39.000 Instead, you sit at your table and you social distance.

00:28:41.000 They've allowed people to continue going to work.

00:28:43.000 They've kept their schools open.

00:28:44.000 And so they've seen a jump in deaths.

00:28:46.000 But we're not gonna know, again, the counterfactual, which is if they had locked everybody home for a year, was that going to be better?

00:28:52.000 Was that actually going to turn out better?

00:28:54.000 Again, if the models are trying to tell you that over the next few months you are less likely to die if you stay home, that is true.

00:29:00.000 If the models are telling you that over the course of the next year you have precisely the same chance of dying if you go out as staying in, then everybody is just going to go out.

00:29:09.000 And that remains the question that no one is willing to answer.

00:29:12.000 What happens with this second wave?

00:29:14.000 Once you got the ICUs in place, once you have the ventilators in place, once you've tested all the drugs that you can test, at least for the moment, then why are we not going to a system where the people who are the most vulnerable, namely the oldest, the people with pre-existing conditions, why are we not moving?

00:29:30.000 to a system where those people are basically quarantined off or self-quarantining until we have a vaccine and everybody else who is much lower risk goes back to work.

00:29:39.000 Because one of the things that we've been seeing, even in New York City, is that the people who are dying of corona almost entirely have pre-existing conditions.

00:29:49.000 We are seeing the data.

00:29:51.000 The data are fairly clear at this point.

00:29:54.000 Which is that if you are older, you have a significantly higher rate of death.

00:29:59.000 If you have a pre-existing condition, you have a significantly higher rate of death.

00:30:03.000 You can see this information is indeed available from the New York City government.

00:30:09.000 The New York City government is reporting in terms of rates by age per 100,000 people, if you are 75 and older, this is COVID-19 acquisition.

00:30:18.000 If you have the rate that is so far measured, and again, the rate's not perfect because the testing is not perfect.

00:30:23.000 If you're 75 and older, then out of 100,000 people, you have about 1.3% chance.

00:30:29.000 If you're 75 and older of having coronavirus, 1.25% chance.

00:30:33.000 If you're 65 to 74, 1.2% chance.

00:30:36.000 If you're 45 to 64, a 0.7% chance.

00:30:39.000 If you're 18 to 44, and you have a 0.69% chance.

00:30:42.000 If you are 0 to 17.

00:30:44.000 And if you look at pre-existing conditions, you will see that the number of people with pre-existing conditions is, it is fairly obvious that people have tremendous underlying conditions if you are typically going to die.

00:30:58.000 So I'm looking right now at the New York City health data from today.

00:31:02.000 And I'll get to what exactly that finds in just one moment.

00:31:04.000 First, let's talk about your safety and security on your own property inside your own home.

00:31:09.000 So, I've for a long time been worried about safety and security on my property.

00:31:12.000 We are seeing in cities around the nation, Seattle, LA, New York, crime rates rising as the police are overwhelmed, as many of them are staying home, as people in jail are being released instead of being put into prison or put on trial.

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00:32:18.000 Okay, well, in just a moment, we're going to get to the statistics from New York City.

00:32:21.000 Again, I wish there were more transparency.

00:32:23.000 It seems like a lot of the experts are trying to upplay the number of young and healthy people who are getting this thing and dying, and downplay the number of people who are elderly and have pre-existing conditions who are dying.

00:32:32.000 And again, it is an enormous tragedy every time somebody dies of Any of these causes, but certainly coronavirus.

00:32:40.000 It's not to downplay that, but if we're going to assess risk factors and who gets to go back to work and who does not, let's stop pretending that every element of the population is equally susceptible to dying of coronavirus.

00:32:49.000 We'll get to more of this in just one second.

00:32:50.000 First...

00:32:52.000 If you haven't had a chance to see some of our new content, All Access Live, you should head over to dailywire.com and check it out.

00:32:56.000 Jeremy and Boring and I launched it a couple of weeks ago.

00:32:58.000 Originally, it was scheduled for later this summer.

00:33:01.000 We accelerated it because we want to hang out with you.

00:33:02.000 We understand everybody is at home.

00:33:04.000 Everybody is feeling lonely.

00:33:05.000 Everybody is feeling cut off.

00:33:06.000 What we do on All Access Live, it's really informal.

00:33:08.000 Basically, I just take your questions.

00:33:09.000 I hang out with you.

00:33:10.000 Sometimes I play Classical music to annoy you off of my phone.

00:33:15.000 I wear a short-sleeve shirt, which is, if that's something that you've ever thirsted for, then this would be your time.

00:33:21.000 If not, well, too bad, because I'm not going to wear this long-sleeve shirt all day.

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00:33:48.000 Okay, so I'm going to give you right now some of the information about underlying conditions in the city of New York.

00:34:00.000 They have the New York City health data, and I wish that this data were a lot more transparent, because it doesn't actually tell you what the underlying health conditions are.

00:34:06.000 And that's freaking everybody out, because a ton of people in the United States are overweight, a ton of people are taking statins for slightly high blood pressure, a lot of people have sort of mild conditions.

00:34:15.000 Are those pre-existing conditions?

00:34:17.000 New York health data doesn't really say.

00:34:19.000 They say the underlying illnesses include diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease, and GI liver disease.

00:34:27.000 So that sounds, you know, a lot more serious.

00:34:29.000 Here are the numbers on who is dying.

00:34:31.000 So only two people have died under the age of 17 in New York City thus far.

00:34:35.000 Both of them had underlying health conditions.

00:34:38.000 In the 18 to 44 group, 180 people have died.

00:34:39.000 144 of them had underlying health conditions.

00:34:41.000 Only 12 had no underlying health conditions.

00:34:46.000 The other 24 are still pending testing.

00:34:48.000 45 to 64, 777 people dead, only 25 had no underlying health conditions.

00:34:50.000 65 to 74, 789 people dead, only 9 had no underlying health conditions.

00:34:54.000 75 and over, 1,454 people have died, only 9 had no underlying conditions.

00:34:56.000 89 people dead, only nine had no underlying health conditions.

00:34:59.000 75 and over, 1,454 people have died, only nine had no underlying conditions.

00:35:05.000 Now, we're still waiting testing on some of this stuff, but the fact is that what that suggests is if you have an underlying health condition, you are severely vulnerable from this thing.

00:35:14.000 If you do not have an underlying health condition, then there's an almost extraordinary shot that you're not going to die of this thing.

00:35:20.000 Okay, if you're young and you're healthy and you're out working, you're probably not going to die.

00:35:23.000 Now, you may transmit it to other people.

00:35:25.000 And this is where these studies start to come in, right?

00:35:27.000 Which is how easily is this thing transmitted?

00:35:30.000 How fast does it pass?

00:35:31.000 But we may get to the point when we lock this thing down such that The elderly are at least protected for the moment and those who are immunocompromised are protected at least for the moment.

00:35:41.000 Then we may have to say to that group of people, particularly, guys, you need to stay out of the general population.

00:35:47.000 You need to stay home.

00:35:48.000 And listen, I know how rough and terrible that is.

00:35:50.000 I understand how rough and terrible that is.

00:35:52.000 I really do.

00:35:54.000 Look, my parents right now, they're 64 years old.

00:35:57.000 They're at our house every day.

00:35:58.000 Why are they at our house every day?

00:35:59.000 Well, number one, we need the help.

00:36:00.000 But more importantly, we know we don't have corona because we had a closed loop before some of this stuff started.

00:36:06.000 We're not super social.

00:36:07.000 And they've been here for now a month, basically, in lockdown.

00:36:10.000 Nobody's got it.

00:36:11.000 And so that means we have a closed loop.

00:36:12.000 What happens when we open back up?

00:36:14.000 Right?

00:36:14.000 What happens when the government says that my kids can go back to school?

00:36:17.000 Well, now the chances that my kids become carriers Dramatically spike, right?

00:36:21.000 The chance that when I go back to work and my wife goes back to work and she's a doctor, right?

00:36:25.000 That the chances that she becomes a carrier, those dramatically spike.

00:36:28.000 And once those spike, then can my parents be over at our house?

00:36:31.000 Do they have to lock themselves inside their house up until January, right?

00:36:34.000 All of this stuff, these are really difficult and terrible decisions.

00:36:37.000 But something that we're definitely going to have to look at because the case remains, it remains the fact that shutting down the world economy has pretty dire ramifications.

00:36:45.000 And again, everybody should be acknowledging this at this point.

00:36:48.000 That the dire ramifications of shutting down the world economy, this is not insensitivity.

00:36:52.000 It is not insensitive to think of the jobs of literally hundreds of millions of people all over the planet, including tens of millions of people in the United States.

00:36:58.000 There are food bank lines that are literally miles long right now in the United States for people waiting to get food.

00:37:04.000 And so the question is going to become if we are not even balancing death, right?

00:37:08.000 Let's say for example, let's say we best possible world.

00:37:11.000 We knock this thing down such that beginning of May, the rates of death from this thing are basically 20 a day, right? 0.82

00:37:18.000 We really knocked the crap out of this thing.

00:37:20.000 And by the end of June, we are down to basically zero, right?

00:37:22.000 We're really low.

00:37:24.000 And then we say to the people who are the most immunocompromised and the elderly, we say to those people, you need to stay home. 1.00

00:37:29.000 We'll bring you your groceries.

00:37:30.000 We'll drop them at the doorstep.

00:37:32.000 You need to continue to self-quarantine until you get the vaccination because you are the people most likely to die.

00:37:36.000 And everybody else go back to school.

00:37:38.000 Everybody else go back to work.

00:37:39.000 Everybody else keep the economy humming.

00:37:42.000 That may be the best we can do.

00:37:45.000 And these sort of solutions that have been suggested by people who really know what they're talking about, right?

00:37:49.000 Scott Gottlieb over at the FDA, who's now an advisor to Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.

00:37:54.000 When people talk about contact tracing and hundreds of thousands of tests being done every single week and using the South Korean model and electronic surveillance, does that seem realistic to you in the United States?

00:38:05.000 Seriously, South Korea has been doing this sort of stuff for 20 years.

00:38:07.000 Does that seem realistic to you in the United States?

00:38:09.000 It may be better than the alternative, which is staying home, but does that seem more realistic?

00:38:13.000 Or does it seem more realistic to say people are going to start to go back to normal life?

00:38:18.000 That if you're vulnerable and you're elderly, we're going to have to quarantine you off until either herd immunity is reached or until a vaccine is developed.

00:38:25.000 And right now, again, people are ripping on Sweden for taking this exact strategy, but I don't know whether Sweden is going to pay off.

00:38:31.000 Maybe Sweden does.

00:38:32.000 Because one of the things you're doing right now by flattening the curve is ensuring that more people do not get this thing.

00:38:37.000 Which means that people will get it in the fall.

00:38:39.000 Fauci has said this is seasonal.

00:38:41.000 Everybody is saying this is seasonal.

00:38:43.000 So what exactly is going to happen next?

00:38:45.000 That's the big question.

00:38:46.000 Dr. Anthony Fauci says we may never go back to anything approaching normal.

00:38:50.000 Here is the head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases.

00:38:55.000 Back to normal means acting like there never was a coronavirus problem.

00:39:00.000 I don't think that's going to happen until we do have a situation where you can completely protect the population.

00:39:06.000 But when we say getting back to normal, we mean something very different from what we're going through right now.

00:39:11.000 Because right now we are in a very intense mitigation.

00:39:15.000 When we get back to normal, we will go back gradually to the point where we can function as a society.

00:39:21.000 And I don't know what that gradual looks like.

00:39:23.000 I don't know what that looks like.

00:39:24.000 Again, if you send the kids back to school, grandparents are still going to have to lock down.

00:39:28.000 They are.

00:39:29.000 The minute my kids go back to school, grandpa and grandma have to lock down.

00:39:32.000 That's what they have to do.

00:39:34.000 That's just the way it's going to work.

00:39:36.000 I don't know what going back to semi-normal looks like.

00:39:38.000 The minute people go back to the office, if you think they're not going to get reinfected, I don't know what planet you're living on.

00:39:43.000 Like if they say that we have to wait till 14 days of no cases, that's not going to happen.

00:39:43.000 Right.

00:39:47.000 There will not be in a country of 330, 350 million people.

00:39:50.000 There's not going to come a point like Italy's talking about reopening right now.

00:39:54.000 Italy is talking about how they go back to a partial reopening.

00:39:57.000 And Italy had like a lot of death yesterday.

00:39:59.000 OK, Italy still had, as of yesterday, 636 deaths.

00:40:05.000 They had over 3,500 new diagnosed cases in Italy, and they're talking about reopening right now.

00:40:11.000 Norway, which is talking about reopening, had 5 new deaths and 178 new diagnosed cases yesterday.

00:40:16.000 So nobody's down to zero.

00:40:18.000 The only country that says they're down to zero is China, and they're lying. 0.63

00:40:21.000 So can we at some point get like a realistic assessment of where things are going to be?

00:40:25.000 I really don't think anybody is being particularly realistic about this stuff, especially in light of the fact that, again, we are not going to keep the economy locked down.

00:40:33.000 And if you really believe that people are going to sit there and take their $1,200 check and be happy for the next four months while losing their job permanently, If you think that, I mean, I know parents in New York City, right now, in their apartments with three kids, unable to go to a public park, unable to take their kids on walks, and they've been locked down for three weeks.

00:40:49.000 You think you're gonna be able to do that for another three, four, five, seven months?

00:40:54.000 Not going to happen.

00:40:55.000 Not going to happen.

00:40:57.000 Okay, meanwhile, the media continue to beclown themselves on a wide variety of issues.

00:41:02.000 Don Lemon, objective journalist, he was really journalism-ing hard yesterday.

00:41:07.000 He was shouting at the moon, shouting at President Trump, How much more of this are you going to take? 0.94

00:41:11.000 Are you mad as hell? 0.67

00:41:12.000 Mad as hell over what? 0.72

00:41:14.000 What is the thing I'm supposed to be mad as hell over exactly? 1.00

00:41:17.000 Trump saying dumb stuff? 0.99

00:41:18.000 Welcome to Trump world. 0.99

00:41:19.000 That's what he does.

00:41:20.000 But am I supposed to be mad that Fauci and Birx are running the show?

00:41:23.000 Because those are the people the media would like to run the show.

00:41:26.000 Trump is taking their advice.

00:41:28.000 Am I supposed to be mad that the ventilators are being delivered?

00:41:31.000 They are.

00:41:32.000 Andrew Cuomo has thanked the White House pretty much every day for their work with him.

00:41:36.000 Gavin Newsom has been thanking the White House every single day.

00:41:39.000 Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan has been thanking the White House every single day.

00:41:43.000 Like, I just don't understand what we are supposed to be so all fired angry about, Don Lemon.

00:41:47.000 It doesn't make any sense to me.

00:41:48.000 Here's Don Lemon.

00:41:49.000 For the last couple of weeks, when I walk into this building and I get in front of this camera, I swear, I feel like I'm in the movie network.

00:41:56.000 I feel like Howard Beale. 0.97

00:42:02.000 Americans are mad as hell. 1.00

00:42:03.000 What are you going to... How much more can Americans take? 1.00

00:42:11.000 Every single day, berating people, lying.

00:42:16.000 First, it's a hoax.

00:42:18.000 And then, all along, I knew it was serious.

00:42:20.000 I knew it was a pandemic.

00:42:22.000 How much more?

00:42:25.000 How many people have to die?

00:42:28.000 Okay, I'm sorry.

00:42:29.000 First of all, Trump never said coronavirus was a hoax.

00:42:29.000 What in the world?

00:42:32.000 He said the Democrats playing up his lack of response was a hoax.

00:42:36.000 And then, Don Lemon says, how many more people are going to die before he gets serious?

00:42:40.000 Does he look unserious?

00:42:41.000 He's having a press conference with the doctors every single day.

00:42:45.000 The media are so eager to rip on Trump that they are making themselves the issue and they are losing credibility in the process.

00:42:52.000 One of the big problems here, again, is this is a time when you require high institutional health, tremendous institutional health.

00:42:58.000 We've got to trust Congress to get us our checks.

00:42:59.000 We've got to trust the White House to provide great information.

00:43:02.000 We've got to trust the media to be straight in their coverage.

00:43:04.000 We have to trust the experts in their modeling.

00:43:06.000 And nobody trusts any of these people.

00:43:08.000 So it's a really difficult problem right now.

00:43:10.000 And then you got Don Lemon out there channeling Howard Beale.

00:43:12.000 I mean, for those who haven't seen the movie, by the way, that is Don Lemon labeling himself an insane schizophrenic because that's what Howard Beale actually is.

00:43:17.000 He thinks God is talking to him in network.

00:43:19.000 So not a great way to compare yourself there.

00:43:23.000 But the media are so over the top.

00:43:23.000 Don Lemon.

00:43:25.000 Like they interviewed yesterday.

00:43:26.000 I think it was on CNN.

00:43:27.000 They interviewed a New York City health commissioner whose mother, who was in her 80s, died of coronavirus.

00:43:33.000 And this person gets on TV and blames Trump for it.

00:43:36.000 Do we have the video of that one?

00:43:38.000 I mean, it's truly astonishing.

00:43:42.000 This person gets up and they're like, well, you know, my mother died and Trump has blood on his hands.

00:43:46.000 You are in the New York City government.

00:43:48.000 There's a mayor there.

00:43:49.000 His name is Bill de Blasio.

00:43:50.000 He had a governor in New York State last I checked.

00:43:52.000 His name is Andrew Cuomo.

00:43:53.000 But somehow it's Trump's fault?

00:43:54.000 And solely Trump's fault?

00:43:55.000 Bill de Blasio was telling people to go out there and party as of early March.

00:44:00.000 So, spare me a little bit, but this is, this is, the media are just, they're awful at this.

00:44:05.000 The case in point, obviously, is their coverage of this hydroxychloroquine issue.

00:44:09.000 So, I'm going to show you two clips.

00:44:11.000 One is from Donald Trump, the other is from Andrew Cuomo.

00:44:13.000 One of these people the media hate.

00:44:15.000 One of these people the media love.

00:44:16.000 They're saying basically the same thing about hydroxy.

00:44:18.000 Here is President Trump touting hydroxychloroquine yesterday at his briefing.

00:44:22.000 You know the expression, I've used it for certain reasons.

00:44:24.000 What do you have to lose?

00:44:26.000 What do you have to lose?

00:44:28.000 And a lot of people are saying that when, and are taking it, if you're a doctor, a nurse, a first responder, a medical person going into hospitals, they say taking it before the fact is good.

00:44:44.000 But what do you have to lose?

00:44:45.000 They say take it.

00:44:47.000 I'm not looking at it one way or the other.

00:44:51.000 But we want to get out of this.

00:44:52.000 If it does work, it would be a shame if we didn't do it early.

00:44:57.000 Okay, so first of all, he is wrong to suggest that you ought to be taking it preventatively, right?

00:45:01.000 There's not evidence that you ought to be taking this thing preventatively, that you should be taking... That is a legit fact check.

00:45:06.000 If President Trump says you ought to be taking this thing preventatively, he should not be saying that, right?

00:45:10.000 It should be prescribed by a doctor when it is useful.

00:45:12.000 Okay, but him touting the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, the media have more broadly suggested it is very bad to tout the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, and yet here you have Andrew Cuomo yesterday suggesting there's anecdotal evidence and we're going to ask for more of it.

00:45:24.000 There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising.

00:45:27.000 That's why we're going ahead.

00:45:31.000 Doctors have to prescribe, but there are some people who have pre-existing conditions where it doesn't work, or they're taking medication that's not consistent with this treatment.

00:45:42.000 But anecdotally, it's been positive.

00:45:45.000 We'll have a full test once they have a large enough sample and data set, Jesse.

00:45:51.000 But anecdotally, it's been positive.

00:45:55.000 OK, so he's saying also that there is some benefits to the drug.

00:45:59.000 A Michigan Democrat yesterday came out and said hydroxy saved my life.

00:46:03.000 Hydroxychloroquine saved my life.

00:46:04.000 Should thank President Trump for that.

00:46:09.000 And this has led the media to lose their mind.

00:46:13.000 The worst story from the New York Times, this is amazing.

00:46:15.000 So the New York Times is covering hydroxychloroquine and saying Trump is pumping it and all of this.

00:46:18.000 So why is Trump pumping this?

00:46:20.000 So the obvious answer is that Trump is trying to give people hope for a treatment that is short of a ventilator and death.

00:46:25.000 That is the short answer.

00:46:26.000 That he's looking at anecdotal evidence.

00:46:28.000 He is seeing anecdotal evidence.

00:46:29.000 There are small studies that suggest that this thing is at least somewhat effective.

00:46:33.000 Some say mildly effective.

00:46:34.000 Some say more than mildly effective.

00:46:36.000 And Trump is trying to give people a ray of hope in the midst of a really, really dark time.

00:46:41.000 Right?

00:46:41.000 That is the most logical explanation.

00:46:43.000 That is not where the New York Times goes.

00:46:44.000 Instead, here's the New York Times reporting.

00:46:46.000 If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president.

00:46:53.000 Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drug maker that makes Plaquenil, the brand name version of hydroxychloroquine.

00:47:02.000 Um, so you think that Trump is pushing a hydroxychloroquine because he owns stock in a company that makes Plaquenil?

00:47:09.000 First of all, this thing is off patent.

00:47:11.000 Hydroxychloroquine is not on patent, which means that the maker of Plaquenil is not the company that stands to benefit most.

00:47:19.000 Second of all, how big a stake does Trump own in Sanofi?

00:47:23.000 According to Market Watch, His three family trusts have investments in a Dodge and Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding is Sanofi.

00:47:31.000 Trump's 2019 financial disclosure form lists stakes in family trusts 1, 2, and 3, valued at between $1,000 and $15,000.

00:47:38.000 So if Trump has the maximum $15,000 in each of the trusts, he holds a stake in Sanofi that's worth $1,485, and at the minimum, $99.

00:47:47.000 You're right, probably Trump, who's at the very least worth a billion dollars.

00:47:51.000 He may not be worth ten billion, he's worth at least a billion.

00:47:53.000 You're saying that that guy is recommending hydroxychloroquine because the on-brand version, now that we are off patent, that that brand version, he needs that to sell because of his $99 stake in the company?

00:48:09.000 That's what's happening here?

00:48:10.000 That's your chief explanation? 0.92

00:48:13.000 I'm sorry, it's just ridiculous. 0.98

00:48:14.000 It's just ridiculous. 0.96

00:48:16.000 But the ridiculousness of the media, they're blowing their own credibility. 0.99

00:48:21.000 They really are. 0.80

00:48:22.000 And now is not the time to blow your credibility.

00:48:24.000 Now would be the time for some responsible reportage.

00:48:28.000 Alrighty, time for a quick thing I like and then we'll get to some things that I hate.

00:48:33.000 Things that I like today.

00:48:34.000 So when you are cooped up long enough with small children, eventually you take to physically throwing them around.

00:48:40.000 And that's pretty much what has happened in my house.

00:48:43.000 I have a six-year-old and a three-year-old.

00:48:44.000 And their favorite game right now is for me to take out my phone and put on Ozzy Osbourne's Crazy Train and then proceed to air guitar with them as human beings.

00:48:52.000 Not like they air guitar with me.

00:48:53.000 Like I physically pick them up and they become the guitar.

00:48:55.000 And it's a fun thing to do.

00:48:57.000 They've really been enjoying that.

00:48:59.000 My daughter particularly likes the drum solo and she has long hair so she can really headbang along to Ozzy Osbourne.

00:49:04.000 So, in honor of the only person who has eaten a bat and not gotten COVID apparently, here is a little bit of Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne.

00:49:14.000 I get a lot of people who ask me about, do I listen to like hard rock music?

00:49:17.000 There are a couple good songs.

00:49:18.000 Crazy Train's a pretty great song.

00:49:19.000 I wish I had my kid's record, air guitar. .

00:49:33.000 You wait until right now, and then you pick them, like, wait for the cue.

00:49:36.000 And then right now.

00:49:37.000 Right, this is where you pick up the kids and you air guitar with them, going behind your head.

00:49:45.000 Yeah, you really go for it.

00:49:46.000 It's a pretty great song, honestly.

00:49:48.000 I don't like Ozzy Osbourne's music all that much.

00:49:50.000 I don't think there's a lot of variety.

00:49:51.000 This song is pretty fantastic.

00:49:54.000 Yeah.

00:49:55.000 Okay, so.

00:49:56.000 You know, if you're in that kind of mood, and I think everybody is, if you don't want to go Howard Beale, go Ozzy Osbourne.

00:50:00.000 Just don't eat the bats, guys.

00:50:01.000 No eating of the bats.

00:50:03.000 Regardless of color or culture, no eating of the bats.

00:50:05.000 Okay.

00:50:06.000 Other things that I like today.

00:50:07.000 I do love rich irony.

00:50:09.000 Here's the rich irony.

00:50:10.000 The founder of BDS, which is Boycotts, Investments, and Sanctions from Israel.

00:50:14.000 His name is Omar Barghouti. 0.82

00:50:16.000 He's awful. 0.99

00:50:16.000 He wants to destroy the state of Israel. 0.99

00:50:17.000 He's made this absolutely clear from the outset.

00:50:20.000 Now he says that if Israel does create the vaccine for coronavirus, that BDS supporters can take it.

00:50:25.000 Weird!

00:50:26.000 Your principles went directly out the window when it turns out that Israel made something you want to use. 1.00

00:50:31.000 Who could have predicted such a thing?

00:50:33.000 He said, according to the Jerusalem Post, if you use medical equipment from Israel, it's not a problem.

00:50:37.000 Cooperating with Israel against the virus, to begin with, that's not normalization.

00:50:41.000 The BDS announced normalization criteria long ago.

00:50:43.000 If Israel finds a cure for cancer, for example, or any other virus, there's no problem in cooperating with Israel to save millions of lives.

00:50:49.000 Up until now, we've not been in a situation where we need Israel urgently, and no one else can save us but Israel. 0.71

00:50:55.000 If that happens, saving lives is more important than anything else.

00:50:59.000 Oh, weird.

00:51:00.000 Weird how, like, all of your, Israel is very bad, we won't use any of their products, went directly out of the window as soon as you wanted to use one of their products. 1.00

00:51:06.000 Very odd how that worked. 0.88

00:51:08.000 So, I only hope that this materializes not only because everybody wants the vaccine, that'd be great, but also because it would be absolutely delicious to watch all the BDS people have to acknowledge that their garbage strategy has indeed failed.

00:51:21.000 So I think that would be quite good.

00:51:23.000 Alrighty, time for a quick thing that I hate.

00:51:29.000 Remember that time there was this guy.

00:51:31.000 His name was Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

00:51:33.000 And there was a trial in the Senate.

00:51:35.000 Well, not a trial.

00:51:35.000 It was a hearing for him.

00:51:37.000 A confirmation hearing for him in the Senate, in the Judiciary Committee.

00:51:39.000 And everything was going fairly swimmingly.

00:51:41.000 In fact, I was not particularly high on Judge Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court pick.

00:51:45.000 I thought he was too wishy-washy.

00:51:46.000 I was suspicious that he was not going to be as originalist as a Justice Thomas, for example.

00:51:50.000 And then things went sideways.

00:51:52.000 And the way they went sideways is that a woman came forward named Christine Blasey Ford, and she said that some Four decades ago, that this person had allegedly attempted to rape her at a party.

00:52:02.000 And nobody came forward with any corroborating details.

00:52:04.000 She herself could not say the night.

00:52:06.000 She herself could not say where it was.

00:52:08.000 She herself improperly named the people who were there, all of whom denied having been there.

00:52:13.000 Her allies attempted to pressure some of the witnesses at this thing.

00:52:16.000 That did not stop Alyssa Milano.

00:52:18.000 Star of the magnificent, unparalleled TV show, Charmed.

00:52:23.000 It did not stop Alyssa Milano from showing up and wearing Handmaid's Tale outfits and sitting behind Brett Kavanaugh because hashtag me too, ladies. 1.00

00:52:32.000 Hashtag me too.

00:52:33.000 And when people like Alyssa Milano were asked specifically about this thing called due process, where you have to provide evidence of an allegation to make us take it a little bit more seriously than the mere allegation itself, it was This is because you just don't believe all women. 0.98

00:52:46.000 If only you believed all women. 1.00

00:52:48.000 If only you weren't a vicious sexist trying to cudgel all women into being child-bearing sows, then you would have just accepted at face value any accusation made about any man anywhere. 0.98

00:53:00.000 Well, speaking of hypocrisy, it turns out that there is a woman who has now come forward and she's accused the former vice president of the United States of asexual assault. 0.97

00:53:13.000 So this woman, his name is Tara Reid, not the actress, different person. 0.90

00:53:18.000 She was an intern for Biden's office, and she alleges that Biden basically pushed her up against a wall and then tried to go under her skirt and actually touched her genitals forcibly.

00:53:28.000 And then when she told him not, then he sort of backed off.

00:53:31.000 Well, Alyssa Milano is a big backer of Joe Biden, and she did a radio show yesterday in which she explained why she had not spoken out about the sexual assault allegation.

00:53:41.000 It turns out that Believe All Women goes completely by the wayside as soon as it's somebody that she likes.

00:53:47.000 So here is Alyssa Milano explaining why she was not going to give any credence to the allegations.

00:53:53.000 The obvious answer is she's not giving credence to the allegations because she doesn't like the allegations.

00:53:57.000 I believe that even though we should believe women, and that is an important thing, and what that statement really means is like, you know, for so long, the go-to has been not to believe them.

00:54:15.000 So really, we have to sort of societally change that mindset to believing women.

00:54:22.000 But that does not mean at the expense of not, you know, giving men their due process.

00:54:32.000 Um, what now?

00:54:34.000 Wait, wait, did she just stumble over due process?

00:54:37.000 It's like she was walking along the road and...

00:54:39.000 There was a due process right there and boom, she just stumbled right upon it.

00:54:42.000 Who could have suggested long ago the due process would have been a good idea?

00:54:47.000 Well, not Alyssa Milano, right?

00:54:49.000 She actually continued to say, investigate situations.

00:54:51.000 It's got to be fair in both directions.

00:54:53.000 So I've been very vocal about Biden and my support for him.

00:54:55.000 I've known him for a long time.

00:54:56.000 I did my due diligence because part of it was that.

00:54:58.000 The article that sort of stood out to me was that Time's Up decided not to take the case.

00:55:03.000 Well, so what if Time's Up decided not to take the case?

00:55:05.000 Does that mean that the woman is lying? 0.99

00:55:07.000 What interest does she have in lying? 1.00

00:55:08.000 We were told that Christine Blasey Ford had no interest in making things up, that there was no possibility she was misremembering, that there was no possibility at all that memories from 40 years ago are vague or confusing or anything like that.

00:55:19.000 It was crystal clear in her memory and other allegations which required lawyers to basically convince people to go out and say things.

00:55:26.000 There's another allegation where a woman had to meet six times with her lawyer in order to accuse Brett Kavanaugh of something. 0.95

00:55:31.000 That was perfectly good evidence that Brett Kavanaugh was indeed a rapist.

00:55:36.000 She says, I don't just feel comfortable throwing away a decent man I've known for 15 years in this time of complete chaos without there being a thorough investigation.

00:55:43.000 I'm sure that the mainstream media would be jumping all over this as well if, you know, if they found more evidence.

00:55:48.000 So I'm just staying quiet about it.

00:55:49.000 I sent the Me Too tweet over two years ago.

00:55:51.000 I never thought it would be something that was going to destroy innocent men, right?

00:55:53.000 We don't want that to happen either.

00:55:55.000 So we have to find this balance in the Believe Women movement and also giving men their due process.

00:55:58.000 Realizing that we're destroying lives if we publicly don't go through the right steps in order to find out if an accusation is credible or not.

00:56:06.000 Okay, in September 2018, here's what she had to say, Alyssa Milano.

00:56:09.000 Let me be as clear as possible.

00:56:10.000 I believe Christine Blasey Ford.

00:56:12.000 I demand our senators vote to reject Brett Kavanaugh as the next justice on the Supreme Court.

00:56:15.000 Every person who refuses to loudly and openly reject Brett Kavanaugh's nomination is telling every generation of Americans that an alleged abuser's career is more valuable than a survivor's humanity.

00:56:24.000 The highest court in our land is no place for an alleged sexual offender to sit.

00:56:27.000 How about the White House?

00:56:28.000 How about the White House? 0.65

00:56:29.000 Is that a good place for an alleged sexual offender to sit?

00:56:32.000 And also, it seems to me that if this is the standard for Brad Kavanaugh, it should be the standard for you.

00:56:38.000 But apparently not.

00:56:40.000 Shocker. 0.99

00:56:40.000 Shock of shocks, Alyssa Milano is a giant hypocrite, and the Me Too standards only apply to people that we don't like. 0.99

00:56:46.000 Everybody else we do like. 1.00

00:56:50.000 At that point, we just call them trailer trash.

00:56:52.000 People who, if you drag a $100 bill through a trailer park, then you pick up people like this, which is what James Carville suggested about the alleged victims of Bill Clinton.

00:57:04.000 So yes, me too, and due process.

00:57:06.000 Alyssa Milano rediscovering due process.

00:57:08.000 Pretty delicious.

00:57:08.000 Alrighty, we'll be back here a little bit later today with two additional hours of content and all your updates.

00:57:12.000 Also, all access live tonight, so I'll be hanging out with you for an hour, taking all your questions.

00:57:16.000 Maybe 45 minutes, because I don't want to hang out with you that long, but at the very least, we'll hang out for 45 minutes before my screaming children come in and invade the place. 0.97

00:57:24.000 Otherwise, we'll see you here tomorrow.

00:57:25.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:57:25.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:57:31.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is produced by Colton Haas.

00:57:33.000 Directed by Mike Joyner.

00:57:34.000 Executive producer Jeremy Boring.

00:57:36.000 Supervising producer Mathis Glover and Robert Sterling.

00:57:39.000 Assistant director Pavel Lydowsky.

00:57:41.000 Technical producer Austin Stevens.

00:57:43.000 Playback and media operated by Nick Sheehan.

00:57:45.000 Associate producer Katie Swinnerton.

00:57:47.000 Edited by Adam Sajovic.

00:57:48.000 Audio is mixed by Mike Koromina.

00:57:50.000 Hair and makeup is by Nika Geneva.

00:57:52.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is a Daily Wire production.

00:57:54.000 Copyright Daily Wire 2020.

00:57:57.000 Alyssa Milano believes all women, except for the women accusing her friends of sexual assault.

00:58:02.000 We will examine how the MeToo movement died yesterday, and what lessons we can learn from its demise on everything from politics to the coronavirus.

00:58:10.000 Then, more good news out of New York, more bad news for the fake news media, and a Bernie bro endorsement for President Trump.

The Ben Shapiro Show - April 07, 2020

Trouble With The Curve | Ep. 988

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