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00:02:39.000We're going to have Steve Bannon joining us here in just a second.
00:02:42.000But you made a great observation when it comes to Arizona.
00:02:45.000When just looking at the votes that are out there to be had.
00:02:47.000I looked at, I asked the team at Turning Point Action to show me the chart, and they have down to the exact number how many four out of four Republicans are still yet to vote in Arizona.
00:04:38.000And we're going to be playing clips from all over the country of different people that have cast their ballots and what they're saying.
00:04:45.000And that's good to get a sense of the national vibe.
00:04:47.000But if you are playing with that psychological game of my vote doesn't really matter, I got kids' stuff, I got to get them to school, I got to get them to a doctor's appointment, there's a huge freaking storm through half the country today, and then you don't want to go out in the weather.
00:05:02.000If you are playing that psychological game that your vote does not count, Or that I just can't quite fit it in today, and I wish I could, but listen, I see the pictures of the lines everywhere.
00:05:12.000Listen, we're having presidential level lines in Maricopa County, in Clark County, Nevada, in New Hampshire.
00:05:19.000We're seeing it live, but it's not good enough yet.
00:06:21.000I mean, we wouldn't want to be in a better place to know that our destiny is right with grassroots leaders and grassroots participants that can make this happen.
00:06:31.000It's going to be a tall hill to climb.
00:06:33.000One of the stats you guys just threw out that shocked me.
00:06:35.000And I would hope that's all different.
00:06:37.000I know Carrie Lake definitely, and we love Carrie, and you guys were all in from the beginning, but she did have some issues with the Republican Party.
00:06:48.000And so that 89, I would hope that Andy Biggs, who I think is one of our greatest members of the House, would not have that.
00:06:55.000I would hope that you would see traditionally the 92 93 supporting Andy Biggs.
00:07:01.000I mean, is there any possibility that?
00:07:02.000I think this Andy Biggs governor's race is by far one of the most important governor's races in the country.
00:07:09.000And of course, those seats, the seats, Feely, Jay Feely, the kicker for the Cardinals, him running, and then Juan Siscomani up in the Tucson.
00:07:19.000Area and parts of Cochise County, I guess, are these two important?
00:07:23.000I mean, late at night, because you guys don't close the polls till late, the fate of the house could rest on these seats, on these races in Arizona, guys.
00:07:33.000So, what you've done in Nevada, here's the good news we're going to know about your work and Cliff Miller early because I keep saying Maine, Eastern Kentucky, and Virginia, too, and New Hampshire, very early on in the evening, we're going to know if we get a wave or not because if we can hold off, if Collins looks strong out of the gate, If LePage looks good or solid in Maine, too.
00:07:55.000If what you guys have done in New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte, she's not MAGA, but God bless her.
00:09:20.000We have way more high prop voters on the table than they do.
00:09:23.000I mean, our four out of fours starting this morning, and so we don't have updated numbers, but as of this morning, there were 260,000 four out of fours still on the board.
00:09:32.000There was about 160,000 three out of fours.
00:09:35.000So, the votes are there if they show up.
00:09:46.000The 43%, how do you and Blake and the team get to that?
00:09:50.000Because I asked people around the country, Texas, everywhere, talk to me about the Indy vote because where we could get caught by surprise is what they keep arguing.
00:10:01.000Oh, it's going to be a massive, the Indies have all flipped against Trump.
00:10:04.000How did you guys derive the 43% number?
00:10:07.000So that's based on historical mean and some independent polling that we've been doing.
00:11:17.000On election night, but somehow the culinary union, surprise, surprise, surprise, steals it.
00:11:22.000I don't think that's going to happen this time.
00:11:24.000I think people, I think you've got a lot of very savvy people in Nevada that understand how that thing rolls, how that deal rolls, and it's not going to let it happen again, guys.
00:11:33.000So just to throw it out there for all the Patriots in Nevada that are turning up today in record numbers.
00:11:39.000Nevada's looking strong, very, very strong.
00:11:41.000I mean, the early returns out of Clark County are trending more Republican than they did even in 2024.
00:11:47.000And obviously, we know how that state went in 2024.
00:11:51.000But, yeah, I mean, listen, there's a lot on the line today.
00:11:54.000And I just want to make it very clear.
00:12:04.000We just never know how Andy Biggs is going to line up and how many defections we're going to get and how many indies we're going to get.1.00
00:12:11.000So those are things we're watching closely as the day goes on.0.99
00:12:14.000And this is why when we did the special with you guys on the work ethic of Charlie Kirk, I tell people, you know, don't believe all the glamour, Charlie.
00:12:31.000And in 2022, we all learned tons of lessons about 2022, and you guys kind of perfected the model.
00:12:38.000President Trump would not be in the White House today unless it was the effort of the Turning Point team and Charlie Kirk, and let me give the devil his due, and Elon Musk, who understood that you guys knew what they were doing.
00:12:53.000And you guys have put more lessons learned.
00:12:56.000In this midterm, because remember, there was a time you guys were saying, Hey, maybe we don't even work in the midterm.
00:13:00.000I was saying, No, you got to at least do something.
00:13:02.000And you guys said, Hey, we're going to do a handful to make sure we perfect the model again.
00:13:06.000And this is why it's such a tee up for 2028.
00:13:09.000And this Arizona, what you guys have done in Arizona, particularly partnering with people like Cliff Maloney and others, I think is the model for the future.
00:13:33.000Also, these house seats, I'm telling you, Nevada and Arizona, if we hold to 218, what I call hold serve, it's going to, it's a torturous path, but it's doable.
00:14:39.000Last thing, what's going to be the first thing you look at today to read the tea leaves?
00:14:44.000What's the first race that this audience needs to look at to see how the bellwether is turning?
00:14:51.000The northern flank, I think, with Cortez and that team up there, I think you look early in the evening, you look at Maine, you look at New Hampshire, you look at these Virginians, the ones that start closing early.
00:15:01.000You look, I think if you're going to see a blue wave, you'll see a blowout, you'll see them taking Maine.
00:15:07.000Early on, you'll see the New Hampshire thing hits on a crash on the shore.
00:15:11.000You'll see Virginia one and two and others.
00:15:13.000So, I think if you're going to see a wave, maybe North Carolina, people got to look at those eastern states, particularly.
00:15:19.000I'm feeling pretty good, particularly if we keep the turnout going throughout the entire day.
00:15:24.000And I'm feeling pretty good about Texas of people grinding.
00:15:27.000It's all look, it's going to come down simply as in Arizona.
00:15:30.000If we turn out today, we can hold this off.
00:15:33.000We can hold the Senate, and I think you can still hold the House.
00:15:37.000If we don't turn out today, Folks, by tomorrow afternoon, Wednesday afternoon, early Wednesday evening, or Thursday, you could have 196 seats in the house, 197 seats.
00:15:47.000And if we have that, it is a long, torturous path to give it up.
00:15:52.000And I tell people, and I realize people have legitimate complaints about some of the things that have gone on.
00:16:19.000Early in the evening, I think you'll see if there's a blue wave or not, particularly on this northern flank.
00:16:24.000But late Wednesday night, early or late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning, as it starts coming in from Nevada and Arizona and Montana, Montana one up in Kalispell, where the president went, we're going to see.
00:16:39.000I also think some of the propositions in Colorado and some of the propositions in California, we might have a positive surprise on that as conservatives turn out.
00:16:48.000So the point is just like Charlie said in that spot, that little clip we played.0.91
00:16:53.000Our fate's in our hands, so we can't bitch and moan here.0.78
00:18:24.000But what I'm saying is, as a member of the, you know, a committed member of Team Wawa, I'm breaking the barriers, reuniting the clans.
00:18:31.000Listen, Wawa, Sheets, Rutgers, Turkey Hill, Cumberland Farms.
00:18:36.000Maybe even some royal farms down there in York County.
00:18:39.000We will do it all because that line, and by the way, that line is your sacred right.
00:18:44.000It is your sacred right to be in that line because it's your sacred right to vote because veterans gave their lives for that and don't let anybody tell you that you can't.
00:18:51.000And I'm hearing stories about long lines.
00:19:48.000I've noticed several people that I know who are Christians say they will not vote because they believe God will steer our country in the right direction.
00:19:53.000So apparently they want God to do their job.1.00
00:19:55.000Okay, well, those people are morons.1.00
00:19:56.000It's like saying, oh, I'm not going to eat dinner tonight because God's going to feed it and put it in my mouth.1.00
00:20:00.000Or I'm not going to drive my car because God will drive my car.0.99
00:20:04.000That is a moronic theological view.0.98
00:20:06.000It is not scriptural, it's not theological.0.98
00:20:09.000Oh, so God doesn't actually want you to ever do anything right, moral, just, or pure or good.
00:20:14.000He just wants you kind of to sit around, veg out, and for things to come to you.
00:20:35.000I think a genuinely frustrating thing on the right that hurts us is it is common for people who are conservative, they get very invested in political outcomes, but they do it in a counterproductive way where They'll decide to not vote because they're scared they'll lose.
00:20:50.000And it's like if they vote for someone and that person loses, they just take it as a huge setback.
00:20:55.000And, like, no, Charlie's so good at laying it out.
00:20:58.000Like, you have a duty to vote, win or lose, because that is your obligation as a Christian.
00:21:09.000If you're going to be defeated, you should be lying on the ground in your own blood and sweat, exhausted because you went all out.
00:21:16.000You should not be submitting to defeat.
00:21:18.000Because you decided it wasn't worth going on this time.
00:21:21.000And in the American political process, this is one of the geniuses of the founders of their many genius features of our republic is that this is a midterm election.
00:21:32.000That means there's going to be another one in two years.
00:21:34.000And that includes the full House again, then another third of the Senate and the presidency.
00:21:38.000And then in 2030, we'll have another midterm election.
00:21:43.000So the way to look at these things is to look at them in terms of a spectrum on where we are as a country.
00:21:50.000And Greer, of course, had his book, The White Pill, where he really goes back and talks about where we were in like 2012 and 2013 and 2014 in like the McCain Romney years as a movement pre Trump.
00:22:03.000And people thought the Republicans were never going to come back.
00:22:09.000I remember a National Review article after Obama got elected, and it was like a satirical article that speculated on the last Republican in the country.
00:23:01.000Ignore the polls, ignore the pundits, ignore the betting markets, ignore early voting numbers, ignore those saying Kamala has seized momentum, ignore those saying Trump has got this in the bag.
00:25:05.000If you are watchers of this show, if you are regulars in this audience, you know that I have a certain penchant, and Blake does too, to be perfectly fair.
00:25:15.000And that is, we are real hardcore when it comes to immigration.
00:26:11.000Look, first of all, I don't take credit for this.
00:26:13.000I give credit to the men and women wearing that green uniform down on the border, the United States Border Patrol, and the men and women of ICE under President Trump's leadership.
00:26:21.000They have the most secure border in the history of the nation, never been more secure.
00:26:31.000We got 2.3 million less illegal aliens in the country.
00:26:38.000Negative net migration for the first time in the fifth year.
00:26:40.000President Trump's leadership has made this all happen.
00:26:43.000But here's what's on the line the same party, the Democratic Party, that was complicit in the invasion of our border, four years of historic illegal immigration, where there are days where 12,000 illegal aliens come into our border, most of them released into the United States.
00:27:00.000Now we've had zero illegal aliens under Trump for at least in almost 18 months.
00:27:04.000But here's that risk the same party that's complicit in open borders and never raids all about it, never tries to stop it.
00:27:12.000Now they want to abolish the agency that's responsible to find these people and deport them from the United States.
00:27:40.000Not only do they want to abolish ICE, like, we know what this would mean if they get full power back.
00:27:45.000They would want to undo the deportations we did, not even say we disliked how you did it or that it happened.
00:27:51.000They'll spend millions of dollars to go and find every illegal immigrant criminal in other countries and fly them back here and give them millions of dollars.0.50
00:28:13.000Look, they let millions and millions of illegal aliens in this country, released them into the country illegally, by the way, because they take their future Democratic voters, or they'll get another Democratic administration to come in and they change the Trump census rule so they counted the next census, which equals what?
00:28:30.000Millions of illegal aliens in sanctuary cities going to equal more Democratic seats in the House.
00:28:36.000They sold this country off to political power.
00:28:38.000And right now they're rabid because we're removing millions of them and they can't stand it because this is a long term plan.
00:28:45.000They sold this country off for future political power.0.94
00:28:47.000As we remove these illegal aliens, they see us removing future Democratic voters.1.00
00:28:57.000And what you say, when, you know, they're selling out the country, they're selling out our culture, they're selling out our kids' schools, they're selling out the DMV, they're selling out your emergency rooms, they're selling out your health care, they're selling out the budget, they're blowing deficits out of the water, they're selling out all of it.
00:29:44.000A decline of foreign born population of almost 3 million people.
00:29:48.000That's never been done in living memory, okay?
00:29:51.000That these are massive, massive border crossings declined by over 90%.
00:29:56.000Border Patrol has set two lowest records for apprehensions at the border in the last two years.
00:30:01.000Fentanyl overdoses are dropping like a rock.
00:30:04.000And don't forget, this is all linked to overall crime.
00:30:07.000Murder rates down to the lowest level since per capita since 1900.
00:30:11.000Violent crime is dropping all across the country.
00:30:13.000There are 5,000 more people alive today because of the drop in violent crime, just in murders, because tens of thousands due to the drop in fentanyl deaths that are here over the border.
00:30:25.000So massive and so sweeping the success that the Trump administration is.
00:30:29.000Mr. Borders, my biggest fear is that because we have memories like a goldfish in this country, that because it's no longer a problem at the border, we're not seeing those caravans sweeping through, we're not seeing just the rush at the border, that it's not animating, it's not invigorating the voting base the way it would and the way it did in 2024 because we don't see those images anymore.
00:30:53.000So that's why I wanted to have you on to keep screaming it from the rooftops base, get out and vote.
00:30:59.000We need a huge election day turnout so that guys like Tom Homan can continue doing their job unabated and with just gas, just full pedal to the metal.
00:31:10.000So, Mr. Homan, whatever you want to tell our audience right now about why Democrats are going to get in your way, what you want to do in the next two years, the floor is yours, sir.
00:31:20.000Well, first of all, I want the American people to understand don't forget the visions.
00:31:26.000Don't forget what you saw during the Biden administration.
00:31:30.000Again, up to 12,000 illegal aliens rushed our border.
00:31:35.000And the last administration released a declaration.
00:31:37.000Don't forget those images of soldiers and border collisions being pushed aside while they came in.
00:31:43.000And here's the issue out of all the hundreds of thousands and the 1.3 million people that ICE arrested, over half of them are criminals.
00:31:51.000ICE has arrested and removed hundreds of thousands of public safety threats from this country in less than two years.
00:32:00.000If the Democrats get power, they're going to squeeze ICE for every dollar.
00:32:04.000They're going to have hearing after hearing after hearing.
00:32:07.000They're going to put more radical judges in place.
00:32:10.000That right now we have over 85,000 habeas cases filed by radical judges.
00:32:14.000Aliens we arrested were forced to release by a federal judge.
00:33:20.000Thousands of parents in this country buried their children because their child was killed by an illegal alienation, not supposed to be here.
00:33:46.000I genuinely think sometimes, Mr. Homan, that so many in this country don't understand the historic nature of the interior enforcement that this administration has been able to accomplish.
00:34:02.000They told us it was impossible to do what this administration did so easily that, like, if we lose today, it's going to be because voters, like, they banished it from memory how bad things were because they fixed it so completely.
00:34:19.000And maybe give us a glimpse, Mr. Homan, of what you think can be accomplished in the next two years if we have a really big election day surge and we get out to the polls and we keep power, especially in the Senate.
00:34:32.000What do you think this DHS, the CBP, and ICE agents are going to be able to accomplish in the next two years?
00:34:39.000Well, first of all, we have the most secure border in the history of the nation.
00:34:44.000We still got some border wall to build.
00:34:47.000But by the end of this Trump administration in the next two years, We would have built every mile of wall that we needed.
00:34:54.000And not just wall, border barriers, technology.
00:34:57.000So we can have the most secure border and it will be maintained security.
00:35:01.000The only way you're going to lose security in that border is if another president comes in and issues executive orders opening that border up.
00:35:08.000And this is what the American people need to understand.
00:35:10.000The success we've had in that border is based on executive orders by President Trump.
00:36:41.000We hinted at it in the previous segment, and we're going to be doing some deep dives on whatever early return data we can get in just a second.
00:36:51.000But we got to tell you about this flash sale for Amfest.
00:36:54.000So I know so many of you in this audience love Amfest.
00:39:08.000You know you are part of something bigger than yourself.
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00:39:54.000This is where we defend the values that built this country and build what comes next.
00:40:14.000Now, this is a race I'm going to be watching very, very closely.
00:40:18.000Already some early tape from early voters on Election Day saying they're switching to Mike Rogers.
00:40:23.000This is a remarkable piece of tape because this is CNN.
00:40:27.000These voters are Democrats who definitely know where CNN sits ideologically, and they're willing to put their name and their face to their vote.
00:40:36.000That tells me a lot about how strong this movement actually is after the Haley Stevens endorsement, SOT 7.
00:40:41.000So you voted for Stevens in the primary, but now you went Republican.
00:43:13.000Because the Arabs tend to own the bodegas and the shops that they go to.
00:43:17.000And there is tension between those two communities.
00:43:19.000Maybe that's going to end up reflecting in a massive way when it comes to exit polls and what we actually see getting rid of the polls.
00:43:25.000We've had ugly elections where a well run or badly run local race just changes the course of this country.
00:43:32.000Remember, 2018 was an ugly year in the House.
00:43:35.000We lost a ton of seats, lost the House, but we actually gained in the Senate because Rick Scott heroically took down an incumbent Democrat senator in a Democrat wave year in a swing state.
00:43:48.000His waves carried Ron DeSantis over the finish line, who only eked it out a few thousand votes.
00:44:03.000It became the sanctuary for the right.
00:44:05.000It's become a laboratory for the right.
00:44:07.000So many wins came out of that well run Senate race.
00:44:11.000What if we get something like that?0.94
00:44:12.000Maybe this is an ugly day, but we cling to the Senate because El Syed couldn't help himself from alienating other Democrats, alienating their black base.0.94
00:44:21.000Mike Rogers ran a good campaign and reached out to those people.0.98
00:44:24.000Maybe he'll be the one who ekes it out by 5,000 votes in a bad year.
00:44:27.000And I'm telling you, just a quick touch point on Florida right now.
00:44:30.000The numbers coming out of Florida right now are absolutely bonkers.
00:44:34.000We're talking presidential margins during a midterm.
00:44:38.000So, any advantage they had, the Democrats, in making that close, the turnout is really, really good, really, really strong in Florida.
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00:45:33.000Let me repeat when women see their babies on an ultrasound, 80% will choose life.
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00:46:25.000We have Tyler Boyer, COO of Turning Point Action, joining us now.
00:46:30.000Tyler, I know this is, you know, basically the busiest day every two years for you, so you're Got eyes everywhere in the country.
00:46:39.000You're hearing from grassroots activists.
00:46:40.000Give us a sense of what you're seeing so far.
00:46:43.000We're at 11 a.m. mountain time right now on Election Day.
00:46:47.000Yeah, we're still, I mean, it's still early.
00:46:49.000So we're taking in, ingesting the data.
00:46:52.000So for the audience to really understand, there's a couple of different ways that ballots are turned in on Election Day.
00:47:01.000You have people that are hanging on to mail ballots that are dropping off.
00:47:04.000You have people who are showing up to vote in person the old school way.
00:47:08.000And then you have people who are voting.
00:47:11.000In some cases, scanning ballots, their mail in ballots at the polling sites.
00:47:17.000Here in Arizona, we have all three of those ways.
00:47:20.000So, the people who drop off ballots late, we don't typically figure out who they voted for until days from now, which is unfortunate.
00:47:29.000That's hundreds of thousands of people.
00:47:32.000And then the same thing happens in a lot of the states.
00:47:35.000So, places like Florida, where we're tracking right now, seems to be a healthy turnout of Republicans, where they don't have a ton of that because they have pretty locked down elections.
00:47:49.000But again, states like Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, other places where you have a ton of mail in votes that get dropped off and get counted late.
00:47:58.000You have, you know, potentially days after the election, if it's close, where you're not going to really know what's going on.
00:48:05.000So, right now, and then it's really going to matter with our operation because you'll have like ballot curing.
00:48:10.000We have that operation starting up already.
00:48:12.000The more mail in ballots that you have, the more curing you do because ballot curing means that when people miss putting a signature on their ballot or they sign it wrong or they put the wrong dates or Things like that, that all those things can lead it to go to put in a separate pile where they have to be verified to make sure that the actual voter was the one that cast the vote.
00:48:33.000And so, yeah, you've got, you know, that adds on tax on even more time before ballots are counted because of that.
00:48:40.000So, yeah, so right now, general consensus is that I think people, I think that the clear determining factor here is that this is not a blue wave.
00:48:49.000This is not an election where it looks like Republicans are getting slaughtered in some of the most competitive places with turnout.
00:48:58.000Yeah, the big question now is is the turnout good enough for Republicans to be able to eke out some wins?
00:49:05.000And right now, in most of the states, a lot of turnout numbers are looking more similar to 2022, which, again, as a reminder, 2022 wasn't necessarily a great year for us.
00:49:20.000We were expecting the red wave and huge numbers, and it ended up being kind of a red trickle.
00:49:28.000So, I mean, there's some good and bad to that, which is number one, is, you know, there's probably not going to be a scenario where Republicans surprise everyone and win out everything.
00:49:40.000But you do have a capacity to surprise and shock because it's a little bit closer, a little bit more similar in composition to that 2022 election right now, as we're seeing.
00:49:52.000But again, that's also with the asterisk because we're not seeing everything everywhere.
00:49:57.000We're not seeing, you know, the late drop offs.
00:50:01.000The votes that aren't being reported or tabulated.
00:50:04.000Some states like New Hampshire, where we're at, we're seeing signs of huge turnout.
00:50:55.000And the interesting part about that is there's a ton of members of the military in Guam.
00:51:00.000So this concept that everyone's ticked off about the Iran war and everything else, Typically, you would expect that a Republican wouldn't win in a place where maybe the military is really upset with the government.
00:51:14.000And so there's a little bit of a lining here, and not to read too deeply into absolutely everything, but there's a little bit of a lining with the Guam governorship is that maybe perhaps people aren't as upset about the Iran conflict as the media would make you think.
00:51:31.000So there's a couple of other things that I'm looking at here.
00:51:34.000Nevada, which is a state we're very active in, it looks like, so if you compare the election day 2024 to 2026, so that was a presidential to a midterm.
00:51:47.000But in the presidential state that Trump ended up carrying, it was R plus 0.8 at this point in 2024.
00:52:31.000So, you're going to have lower turnout on election day, probably because, at least from Democrats, because that's historically what happens.
00:52:38.000But it's a good sign for Republicans if Republicans show up today.
00:52:44.000This is Dave Wasserman, not exactly a conservative here.
00:52:48.000He says, If Dems were hoping favorable early voting patterns would extend into Election Day, that's not happening in Florida, where E Day vote turnout is tracking much.
00:53:14.000Now, we've had, I remember the red trickle year, 2022, Florida outperformed everywhere else.
00:53:19.000But this is a great sign because we were legitimately, at times in this election, very fearful about Byron Donalds and potentially having Angie Nixon, DSA, Angie Nixon as a senator.
00:53:31.000Now, she's been down in all the polls, but this is great, great signs out of Florida.
00:53:36.000So you got Guam, you got Nevada, you got Florida.
00:54:21.000Running around New Hampshire, New Hampshire is becoming kind of this release.
00:54:25.000You could see near, I think you're going to see somewhere in between 2022 and 2024 turnout results.
00:54:32.000Some of our people on the ground are saying it looks like 2024 at the polling places, which it's not going to be, it's not going to be presidential turnout, but higher turnout tends to be a little bit more Republican.
00:54:50.000So if you're the Republican Party, a little bit more turnout means that.
00:54:54.000We're matching the Democrats in their turnout.
00:54:57.000I want to show you a picture out of Hennepin County.
00:54:59.000This is a real poll worker and wearing a problem solved t shirt.
00:55:05.000Now, as far as we know, this is not a math teacher, but I don't know what the hell would be the possible justification for wearing a bloodstained white shirt as a poll worker on election day.
00:55:35.000If they're at a poll worker where it's going to confuse people, it's going to upset people, I'd be very interested in finding out if this person is even a teacher.
00:55:44.000Because if they're not, I think they lack the excuse for why they would be wearing that shirt.
00:57:04.000But I don't know if Tafoya had enough money to be able to make enough people aware of that and turn out enough people, especially in this election year.
00:58:54.000If you ask me where I stand right now, I don't think you're going to have dramatic surprises.
00:58:58.000I don't think you're going to have deeper blue states flip red, and I don't think you're going to have deeper red states totally flip blue.
00:59:05.000So I think Kansas is probably going to be fine.
00:59:09.000I think Oregon and Minnesota were not.
01:01:40.000So, again, every election is different.
01:01:41.000Where you have some years, you know, you boom early in the morning and there's the fight or there's some pent up, you know, whatever.
01:01:49.000You know, with more early voting, there's less pent up election morning, in my opinion.
01:01:55.000Republicans historically do really, really well and numbers do really, really well in the afternoons because that's when people get off work.
01:02:02.000So, and this isn't just this isn't everywhere, but mornings on election day, Democrats in competitive places, Democrats do a little bit better because teachers and so on, they usually go before work.
01:02:14.000And then they go to work, and then, and then they, yeah.
01:02:17.000So, Republicans usually go to work, and then they go vote.
01:02:27.000We want to see that number get to like R 30, even R 35 as the day goes on.
01:02:31.000If we get there and we get that sheer volume, the raw vote tally up, up towards that maybe 275,000 Republicans vote, 250,000, whatever it ends up being, we have a really good shot.
01:03:19.000An important message from Noble Gold Investments November 3rd, control of Congress is on the line.
01:03:25.000And whatever happens, your savings are going to feel it.
01:03:28.000If Democrats take power, we could be looking at years of gridlock, followed by the same policies that fueled inflation before more spending, bigger deficits, and a weaker dollar.
01:05:43.000And that gives me a huge level of hope.
01:05:46.000The level of hope is because I don't honestly feel like Maine is going to kick out Susan Collins, who always does terribly in the polls and always does very well on election day, for a guy who impregnated his own cousin.
01:06:00.000I don't really see an oil state going for an effeminate guy like James Tallarico, who wants to trans all the children and doesn't like the fossil fuel industry and uses The story of the virgin birth of Jesus Christ to justify the mass genocide of children in the womb via abortion.
01:06:20.000I don't see a guy who minimized terror, Abdul El Sayed, against a synagogue, Jewish children getting slaughtered by a guy inspired by Hezbollah as hurt people, hurting people.
01:06:31.000I don't honestly see Michigan voting for a guy like that.0.51
01:06:33.000And then in Alaska, where they are undermining our democracy, subverting our democracy with blatant cheating, where they put a decoy Dan Sullivan on the ballot because they're trying to deceive the voters.
01:06:44.000I can't picture the Democrats running.
01:07:16.000Then the next two years, all we do is talk nonstop about how the Democrats have turned themselves over, turned themselves into a freak show.
01:07:22.000And that's all we're going to talk about as we head into the Vance Rubio election of 2028.
01:07:28.000Yeah, I mean, that's what we're staring at.
01:07:31.000At the top of Breitbart right now, Alex, you have exclusive John McLaughlin, establishment pollsters, quote, try to discourage us so that we don't vote.
01:07:39.000This is an off-talked-about thing on the right: these demoralization ops, right?
01:08:09.000And it's almost too delicious to think about how much fun it's going to be if the blue wave doesn't hit, just because you dunk on the betting market industry, you dunk on the polling industry, you dunk on all of the freak show on XE Everything app from the left, just the rage.
01:08:25.000Did you see the rage at the little Haley Stevens yesterday?
01:08:29.000It was just unbelievable to see those guys have a bad night, how much fun that would be.0.54
01:08:34.000The New York Times had their big article out where they were trying to find all the Jews who are voting for El Sayed in Michigan, and they're putting fake names on there with sexual references in there.
01:08:45.000The media has been so disgraceful, and social media has been just as bad.
01:08:48.000I monitor the dials on what's trending online as well as just about anyone I would say to lead Breitbart.
01:08:55.000And it is so overwhelming how the left turned out their digital army, and the righteous cannot compete in this regard.
01:09:01.000But is this an election where normal people who are not liking what they're seeing in the Democrats are going to come out and they're going to support these radical?
01:09:09.000People versus kind of normal Republican slate.
01:09:12.000And that's, I think, one of the big questions that we have.
01:09:16.000We know, and the New York Times admitted this, working class Republican males are not responding to polls.
01:09:21.000This is often the case, but more so this year than before.
01:09:24.000So I do think the polls are undersampling Republicans.
01:09:27.000The question is, are they undersampling them a point, two point, three point, four point, maybe even more?
01:09:32.000And that's what we're going to learn tonight.
01:09:36.000I think the undersampling, I think the modeling, here's what I can tell you.
01:09:40.000Having seen Inside a dashboard of how you model an electorate, there are about five or six really important knobs you can twist one way or the other.
01:09:53.000When they're trying to sample and size an electorate and then right size it when they don't get enough Republicans responding, they're making so many assumptions.
01:10:16.000Going back to 2024, if you look at where some of the New York Times had Trump in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, they missed on a lot of these things because you're forced to make assumptions because people simply do not respond to polls the right way.
01:10:29.000So I think this is something that Republicans need to ingest deeply and internalize that it doesn't matter.
01:10:36.000Both sides have enough votes in a midterm to win.
01:10:39.000That is something we have said over and over and over again.
01:10:42.000You get 160 million votes in a general for a presidential, you get about 100 million.
01:11:27.000And that's what I'm very curious to see.
01:11:29.000And it'll be pretty delicious if they're able to do that.
01:11:32.000And talk about the pollsters this cycle.
01:11:34.000And again, it's tough to be a poll truther because it seems like every other cycle, they get it right and then they get it wrong and they get it right and they get it wrong.
01:11:41.000But so far this cycle, we've got some really huge examples of misses, particularly Abdul El Sayed, who was supposed to win by double digits and won by a fraction of a point.
01:11:49.000And then we had the Francesca Hong race in Wisconsin, who was supposed to win by 20 points in her primary and lost 20 points.
01:12:31.000If all of the four out of four Republicans of the last four elections turned out to vote today, we win.1.00
01:12:38.000The only reason this is in doubt is because a bunch of four out of four Republicans today will decide, eh, it's not going to make a difference.
01:14:37.000Yeah, everything I'm hearing is very positive right now.
01:14:39.000I'm seeing massive turnout in red areas across the country.
01:14:42.000And huge Republican turnout, which is really interesting to me because we know they're not going to be as enthusiastic as they were two years ago.
01:14:49.000But an unenthusiastic vote and an enthusiastic vote count the exact same.
01:14:54.000And some of these weather fronts, it's interesting to see who they could affect because it seems like they're in areas Republicans need to win.
01:14:59.000But remember, the Democrats have all these low propensity voters now.
01:15:02.000They have all these community organized voters who are just getting rounded up and taken to the polls essentially because they're better at organizing than we are.
01:15:22.000But a lot of them might believe that if they read something on Blue Sky.
01:15:25.000So, again, there's a lot of reason for optimism as we say this in the morning on the West Coast today, as of now, that this could be, you could be a part of a much better night than you thought if you're voting red today.
01:16:05.000That's 50,000 people that either make the choice today to don't show up or they choose to, hey, I might show up.
01:16:10.000It just enrages me that we could be tomorrow, have a race, we lose by 10,000 votes, 5,000 votes, and then we'll have to hear the people come out.
01:16:32.000Give me the three races that you're looking for right now as a bellwether, how the night's going to go.
01:16:38.000Yeah, I really want to see how Ohio goes because Ohio is a huge voter registration advantage for Republicans.
01:16:43.000Those races should not be close, and yet they seem very close for a number of reasons that we could get into.
01:16:49.000So I'm definitely checking that out as well.
01:16:51.000And then some of those races were the ones that just don't pass the eye test.0.96
01:16:55.000I'm talking Maine, Michigan, and Texas.
01:16:58.000If any of those really end up going Democrat, that suggests to me that it is going to be a bad night for Republicans because those are just the ones that, let's just be honest, guys, gunned your head.
01:17:07.000Do you really think, do you really think that those Republicans are going to lose those seats?
01:21:03.000John Fetterman has repeatedly described El Sayed as having weird little man syndrome energy just going around insulting people, quote unquote.
01:21:12.000A real little man syndrome thing, quote unquote.
01:21:14.000He's the worst case of little man syndrome I've ever seen.
01:21:18.000Well, the best part of this is Fetterman himself is gigantic.
01:21:22.000You need a confrontation between them in real life.0.57
01:21:24.000Fetterman has called El Sayed someone, quote, very proud of his very deeply anti Israel views and, quote, pro Hamas candidate that's been anti American and deeply anti Israel and has said he, quote, supports Sharia law.0.77
01:21:57.000I absolutely do because Fetterman has huge approval with Republicans in the state and he gets along great with Senator McCormick, who's terrific, and he has low approval with Democrats.
01:22:06.000So you can certainly see it happening.
01:22:09.000And this is why Haley Stevens coming out and supporting Mike Rogers.
01:22:14.000I'll tell you, no one cares about Haley Stevens, but the issue is that people got to Haley Stevens and who got to her?
01:22:20.000It was the same day or a day after Nancy Pelosi came out and said that Syed's a problem.0.75
01:22:25.000So there are people in the Democrat establishment that don't want the party to become a pro Hamas party.0.74
01:22:30.000They don't want a party that minimizes Hezbollah terror in America's heartland.0.92
01:22:34.000They don't want that type of person who is the face of the party, which is exactly what's going to happen.0.99
01:22:39.000So, I do think that there will be some people that you got to be brave and you got to be someone like a Fetterman type who's a real iconoclast who are going to say that I'm out now.
01:22:47.000This is official, that I don't want a guy who's bestie friends with a son piker who hates this country and thinks America deserves 9 11.0.52
01:23:24.000Mr. President, I just want to clarify something you said earlier when it comes to Israel aid.
01:23:29.000We'd understand we've cutting off aid to Israel, that we weren't giving them $4 billion, and you're no longer going to be giving them $4 billion.
01:25:02.000And if Israel needs the money for a specific purpose, they can make that case at a time instead of just having an allowance from the United States.