00:00:56.000Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.
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00:01:52.000I see pictures flooding in from activists all over the place.
00:01:56.000You guys are knocking doors, getting out.
00:01:58.000You're speaking to lots of big crowds.
00:02:00.000Give us a sense of the energy on the ground in this state because it was a race that the prognosticators and the pollsters said wasn't even basically worth running.
00:02:09.000They had you down double digits until Katie Hobbs' own internal poll showed that this was a jump ball.
00:02:14.000So give us a sense of the ground energy, Mr. Biggs.
00:02:18.000Well, wherever we go, thanks, Andrew and Blake, for having me on.
00:02:21.000But wherever we go, it is amazing how many people are engaged.
00:02:27.000I've never seen a ground game more electric and more broad swelling across this state.
00:03:24.000So we're up by about 0.7%, and we're beating them in raw vote totals by about 12,500, 13,000 votes, okay?
00:03:34.000So how do you square that with what Congressman Biggs just said, our future governor?
00:03:39.000Well, we have more registered voters in this state.
00:03:42.000But here's why I'm actually pretty bullish on this, Andy, is that We can look at election day history in this state, and we tend to dominate on election day.
00:03:53.000I'm talking to the Turning Point Action team.
00:03:55.000We're expecting between 220 and 275,000 Republicans to get to the polls on election day, which is probably about three to one versus what the Dems are going to get out.
00:04:07.000Is that kind of what you're seeing or predicting as well in your modeling?
00:04:10.000It's all going to be about turnout on day of.
00:05:14.000I mean, I want everybody look, if you look on social media, if you look on the polls, they are telling you a much different story than what we're telling you right now.
00:05:25.000And that is, and it's not just with your race, Andy, it's all across the country, right?
00:05:29.000But if you look at the turnout, we're looking at live data.
00:05:35.000Based on ballots we know have got returned, and we have the edge, and we're going into election day where historically we know we have the edge.
00:05:43.000So, this is a win, winnable, very winnable race right now as it stands.
00:05:49.000It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout.
00:06:12.000I mean, you've been running elections for a long time.
00:06:15.000The muscle memory that we've established in the state of Arizona after 2024 and building on that momentum in 2026, you can feel it and you can see it in the data.
00:08:34.000If you want to get involved even now, you can download the Turning Point Action app.
00:08:38.000You can make calls in this race, in other races, today, tomorrow, push all the way through to the end.
00:08:45.000It doesn't matter if you don't live in Arizona or New Hampshire, Nevada, or anything like that.
00:08:49.000If you're in California right now, I know we have a huge California contingency and we want to get behind what Steve Hilton is doing, and you got to get that voter ID measure across the line.
00:08:57.000But pick up the phone, you pick up the Turning Point Action app on your phone, and you can start making calls for Andy Biggs right here.
00:09:05.000What was crazy, so Blake and I were actually at a Super Chase event with you, Andy.
00:09:10.000I was at another one on Saturday, too.
00:09:12.000But what was crazy about the conversations we were having was the folks on the ground were like, oh, don't go to this neighborhood, don't go to this neighborhood.
00:09:21.000He's like, ah, we could use a little bit of help in LD4 up here.
00:09:24.000And that was, I think, where the picture was.
00:09:26.000He's like, but that neighborhood's picked over.
00:09:28.000That neighborhood's, we've already, you know, you don't hear that kind of language like, oh, we've already worked that neighborhood too hard.
00:09:34.000We've already worked that neighborhood, you know.
00:09:36.000The fact that there was this sense like, don't, we've already hit all those doors.
00:09:40.000I really loved, I knocked on a door on Saturday and they opened it and they said, I've already, like, I have my plan to vote.
00:09:46.000Like, they knew the whole script for what to say.
00:12:29.000As you may have seen, our Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul, said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away.1.00
00:16:51.000He's complaining that his parents never came to his games and that Pete Hegg says parents came to his games, even though he wasn't any good.
00:16:56.000Then he goes up and throws up a bunch of words.
00:16:58.000You need to elect me because white people are why my parents didn't love me more.0.69
00:17:13.000An important message from Noble Gold Investments.
00:17:15.000November 3rd, control of Congress is on the line.
00:17:18.000And whatever happens, your savings are going to feel it.
00:17:21.000If Democrats take power, we could be looking at years of gridlock, followed by the same policies that fueled inflation before more spending, bigger deficits, and a weaker dollar.
00:18:25.000So we have seen this poll going around social media, and it's the final predictions from the New York Times.
00:18:32.000So your reaction to it, it didn't inspire a lot of hope, Ryan.
00:18:38.000You basically said that comparing this to other wave elections, which the polling would have you believe that it's going to be, that the Democratic electorate is more Democratic than it was even in Watergate.
00:20:14.000First, too many Democrats are sampled in the poll.
00:20:17.000Secondly, in the poll, it says that the voting block in Ohio would be 80% white.
00:20:22.000That is less white than both 2024 and 2018.
00:20:26.000Usually in these midterm elections, the electorate is whiter as younger people drop off.
00:20:31.000So that also kind of spurs me as a big question but this is the number one thing that i had a problem with this poll john eusted is winning the white vote against sheriff brown by four points just two years ago and ohio is a great state because we have the same candidate sheriff brown running two years ago sheriff brown two years ago lost the white vote by 13 points 13.
00:20:53.000so we're talking about and the entire shift of the electorate is primarily based out of more democrats and white non-college educated whites moving double digits towards democrats I frankly have a very difficult time believing in it.
00:21:07.000I think there's certain narratives in the poll that are correct.
00:21:09.000I think Vivek is performing worse than Houston, but I absolutely know it's from internal numbers that it's much, much tighter and that Houston could still win Ohio.
00:21:54.000Todd Aiken in that race in 2012, with Obama top of the ticket, did not lose that many Republicans as they say are going against Roger Marshall this time.
00:22:05.000And they also have the Republican for governor losing 15% of Republicans.
00:22:09.000It is virtually unheard of for that many people within a party.
00:22:14.000To leave the party to vote for the opposite party this day and age.
00:22:17.000Susan Collins in 2020 did not get 20% of Democrats.
00:22:21.000Like these numbers are way, way, way too high.
00:22:25.000I think there's a lot of self reporting and misreporting by people identifying as Republicans.
00:22:30.000Like, yeah, I was Republican in the sense that I voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but haven't voted for Republicans since.
00:22:36.000Therefore, you're probably not a Republican in my eyes.
00:22:38.000I think that's probably where a lot of this is being picked up.0.54
00:22:41.000But lastly, in the state of Michigan, They have Abdul-Said winning the white vote.0.98
00:22:50.000I know that maybe I am a bit of a skeptic.
00:22:53.000I do not believe Abdul-Said is winning the white vote, especially when you consider, once again, like Ohio, this is a state where Mike Rogers ran just two years ago.0.61
00:23:03.000Rogers won the white vote by nine points in Michigan.
00:23:06.000So he's going to have a double-digit loss of the white voters, specifically white non-college educated voters, the group that were most misidentified in the Democratic primary in 2026, rather.
00:23:20.000I think that this, and also Mike Rogers, who's done an immense amount of black outreach in the Democratic Party, sorry, outreach to black voters in the general election, they have his support among black voters falling by two-thirds from just 2024.
00:24:55.000We see that in New York quite often where a lot of Republicans are Democrats.
00:25:00.000Even that being said, to have almost one in five is literally crazy.
00:25:05.000And here's the problem with the overall problem if you're finding the Republican, if you cannot.
00:25:09.000Find the registered Republican who's a registered member because they're not responding to polls.
00:25:14.000What are the chances you're finding the independent who leans Republican every election, but once again doesn't respond to polls?
00:25:21.000Because in these polls, you have most Republicans losing the independent vote by 30 something points.
00:25:26.000Now, once again, I think that Republicans are going to lose the independent vote.
00:25:29.000However, these numbers are absurdly high to lose them by.
00:25:34.000There's a few that kind of make sense.
00:25:36.000Sherrod Brown, ironically, in the Ohio poll, is winning independence by nine.
00:25:42.000That's the same number he won independence by two years ago.
00:25:46.000So it's very strange where they're seeing these massive shifts along certain categories of people and then seeing virtually no shift among other ones.
00:25:55.000That's why I have a problem with this poll.
00:25:57.000And the New York Times is a very, very good polling.
00:25:59.000But when they're saying, hey, we're having a really difficult time finding Republicans, just like the Wall Street Journal said, just like Maris said, and we're just crazy changing the weights of our polls to try to reflect what we're thinking we're seeing, I have an issue with that.
00:26:12.000Also, their sample size of young voters is very, very large.
00:26:16.000The youth vote is very large in Florida.
00:26:26.000There's no evidence that any of these numbers make any sense given that they say that the under 30 vote will be 12% of the electorate.
00:26:33.000So far, which 40% of the vote's been captured already through the early vote process, it's only 6%.
00:26:39.000So you would need almost every young person to go out and vote and almost no older people.
00:26:44.000For these numbers to hit, and these youth votes is really where the Democrats are making up a 50 point win margin within those certain demographics.
00:26:52.000Yeah, that's what's we've noticed that too in Arizona.
00:26:55.000The youth vote we had originally modeled it between 15 and 18 percent, we're only at six percent of the total electorate at this point.
00:27:03.000So, that 18 to 29 year olds, we're just not seeing them come up.
00:27:06.000And they typically are not big election day people.
00:27:09.000They tend to vote a little bit later in the cycle.
00:27:12.000But, I mean, they would have to have a historic, historic election day turnout for these models to get anywhere near what the pollsters are predicting.
00:27:43.000So, Ryan, when we look at Haley Stevens' late endorsement, yeah, it would have been better for her to do this like two weeks ago, three weeks ago.0.50
00:27:50.000But when we see that endorsement, I mean, that sent shockwaves across the commentariat last night.
00:28:40.000That is, but I don't know if that's enough.
00:28:43.000What we saw in 2025 in New York City is in the primary, in the Democratic primary, Andrew Cuomo winning blacks hand over fist and then losing them because they are essentially always Democratic voters in the general.0.57
00:28:57.000Had he won them, he would have been mayor.0.62
00:28:58.000I think we're going to see a lot of it still where a lot of black people who voted for Haley Stevens are going to end up voting for Abdul Al Seed.0.73
00:29:05.000So you think that the blacks against, the blacks, they're coming out against, because there's been a lot of ink spilled about this coming out against El Said.
00:29:49.000So the question then is okay, there's sort of like three scenarios blue tsunami.
00:29:56.000There's a sort of kind of neither team really does as well as they hope, but it's kind of a detente.
00:30:04.000And then there's a scenario where we actually do a little bit better than people suspect.
00:30:08.000Let's go through each of those outcomes.
00:30:11.000And if it's a blue tsunami, which the polls indicate that it's going to be, what are the takeaways?
00:30:17.000What is the messaging that The Republicans need to sort of focus on what are the lessons that need to be learned from that?
00:30:24.000Um, I think that it's going to be different in different states.
00:30:26.000I think that like Texas has a lot of problems.
00:30:28.000I think partly because Greg Abbott has stayed too long at the fair, right?
00:30:32.000I think there's a big push then to make older members retire when they're in their 70s.
00:30:37.000Had Abbott and Cornyn retired, had there been generational change in Texas, I don't think we'd be in the same situation that we're in now.
00:30:42.000It's very difficult to blame the opposite party when they've been out of power for so long and the people in charge are in their 70s or nearing their 70s, right?
00:30:50.000An entire leadership cannot all be on social security.
00:30:54.000Secondly, I think that the conversation around that the president has had around things like renaming lakes and rivers and bodies of water, taking over Canada and Iceland, were very tone deaf to the needs of the American people at this point and the concerns over cost of living.
00:31:11.000And it is very ironic that the president really cast the Republican Party as the party of the working class.
00:31:17.000And then it seemed like it was the party of tech oligarchs, right?
00:31:22.000We've given tech people, at the time they are the least likable they've ever been, given them a big seat at the table.
00:31:29.000And I think those are things that really the Republican Party's kind of been missing in.
00:31:33.000And we, as soon as I guess the election ended, there's really been a refocusing on the agenda around economic needs of working class people.
00:31:51.000That the last time a party flipped three double digit blue seats was 2010.
00:31:58.000That's when Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Illinois, three states that have voted for Obama by over 10 points, flipped for Republicans in the following Senate election.
00:32:14.000It's very, very, very rare that political gravity still exists.
00:32:18.000And at the end of the day, people would rather vote for the party that they know and the devil that they know than the devil that they don't.
00:32:23.000And for many of these people, many of these places, that's what the Democratic Party represents.
00:32:31.000You mentioned the tone deaf concerns around Trump and what he did.
00:32:36.000I suspect, let's say we get a bad outcome for Republicans or even just a moderately bad one, there's clearly a lot of people who are chomping at the bit to come out and say Trumpism is dead, MAGA is dead, it's all over.
00:32:52.000Some of them want to take it back to 2014, some of them want to burn down the whole Republican Party.
00:32:56.000Different narratives, but they're all going to try to say that.
00:33:00.000Do you think that'll be the case, or what do you think the position of President Trump will be within the party if we have a negative outcome tomorrow?
00:33:08.000Well, if the Democrats take over and they try to impeach him, he becomes a sympathetic figure again.
00:33:31.000I think that there's the arguments and the conversations around corruption, around foreign policy around Iran, and around cost of living really become heightened.
00:33:40.000And you're probably seeing Republicans start breaking from the overall narrative.
00:33:43.000A lot of times, congressional Republicans have been very scared to get on the opposite side of Trump on almost any issue.
00:33:50.000I think you may see some actually starting to break with him on issues and trying to take the lead where they possibly can, being in the minority.
00:33:57.000You know, it's an interesting question.
00:33:58.000I mean, I hate to do doomsday stuff, but if it goes bad enough and they do try and impeach Trump.
00:34:05.000You know, say they get to 54, 55 seats in the Senate.
00:34:09.000I mean, I'm talking like worst case scenario here.
00:34:11.000If Democrats do, you know, could there be a scenario where you could get enough Republicans to flip over and actually convict the president in an impeachment?
00:34:37.000Every one of these weaker Republicans is already gone.
00:34:40.000So I find it very hard to believe that maybe the guy from Utah might do it, but there's not going to be enough because some people have already lost at that point.
00:34:49.000So, the next question, the last question I'm going to ask you here is looking at this map, do you see any potential bright spots, any surprise victories, flips for Republicans?
00:35:22.000For the Senate seat, I think Vivek's going to lose, but I think it's tighter for the Senate seat than people think.
00:35:27.000I don't know any about Collins or Alaska's kind of ground game, but I think that the most important thing to emphasize from this election is we're going into it in a massive deficit in many states because Republicans need to get one thing through their head more than anything else.
00:35:59.000It actually helps Republicans win in the long term.
00:36:02.000Well, I mean, we just got a report here that in Paradise Valley, you know, which is a Republican stronghold here in Maricopa, one of the voting centers has gone offline because of power issues.
00:36:23.000I feel a bit white pilled in that I was out door knocking on Saturday and several people were explaining, I've already got my plan to vote.
00:36:48.000So, I mean, hopefully, I mean, in Arizona, we're ahead in the early vote and we're going to, historically, if trends hold, we're going to dominate on election day.
00:36:57.000Then you're just wondering about how bad that indie vote is.0.89
00:37:00.000And, you know, how many defections you get when the R's.
00:37:03.000But we're going to have more R's in the box than D's.0.96
00:37:06.000It's just a matter of those unknowns that we can't know yet.
00:38:21.000Your premium membership also gives you access to Angel's growing library of movies and shows, including Sound of Freedom, The Last Rodeo, Young Washington, Solo Mio, and plenty more.
00:38:32.000So join the premium Angel Guild by visiting angel.comslash LO.
00:38:36.000Claim your two tickets and make plans to see Drummer Boy in theaters November 6th.
00:38:40.000Again, it's a movie you are going to want to experience on the big screen.0.68
00:38:47.000What happens with transgender kids on sports teams and so on, right?
00:38:51.000I don't know that that's actually true.1.00
00:38:53.000I think we manufacture these social issues.
00:38:55.000Because here's the thing about it you have a phone in your pocket, right?
00:38:57.000You can get access to everything and anything in the whole world, all the world's information in your pocket.
00:39:03.000The notion somehow that you are going to prevent your child from being exposed to something that you may find disagreeable and that that is going to be because of school is so profoundly outdated.
00:39:15.000And the most important thing you can do is not try.
00:39:17.000To protect a person from seeing a thing, it's about trying to make sure that as you coach your kid through the world, you are engaging with them and saying, Here's what I believe, here's what you may see in the world.
00:39:28.000You get to make your choices about who you're going to be in the world.
00:39:31.000But that's going to require us to make do with the fact that, like, the internet is a real thing.
00:39:38.000So, Abdul Al Sayed says, You know, we shouldn't care about men in women's locker rooms because they can look up hardcore pornography on their phone.
00:40:12.000Looking good as always, chipper as always.
00:40:16.000Help us understand the dynamic that's happening in the black community, specifically when it comes to are they going to vote for a Muslim?0.86
00:40:24.000Are they going to vote for Abdul Al Sayed?
00:40:27.000Abdul Al Sayed, he knows he's in trouble with black people.1.00
00:40:30.000He knows that there are 16 majority black cities in Michigan, and there is not one black person that has not been hurt by the power of Islam.1.00
00:41:04.000Because they are a racist group of people.1.00
00:41:05.000They hate black people, although it's on the backs of blacks, so they've gotten rich.0.99
00:41:08.000That's why you have Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck, the only three majority Arab cities in the world outside of the Middle East.1.00
00:41:46.000And what it found was a plurality, 35% of black adults were part of the order and opportunity left as they categorized them, while only 4% were of the leftward progressives, right?
00:42:35.000Before President Donald Trump came to my church for his birthday weekend in 2024, people like Mike Rogers and quite frankly, the Republican Party, they didn't see a need to go into black communities, although black communities represent the second largest voting block.
00:42:49.000You have almost 1,000 majority black cities, but not one majority black Republican congressional district.
00:43:39.000And I don't know that it's fully baked yet.0.59
00:43:41.000In the sense that I don't know that black voters have fully internalized this, but there is a growing discontent that I have perceived from black voters, and maybe you could shed some light on this, that they feel like they've been replaced and left behind by newer imports within the Democrat coalition.
00:43:58.000That you're playing second fiddle now to Muslims, to Somalis, to whatever group that has been brought in in the last 20 years.
00:44:27.000I mean, in my church, we have people come to my church who get John James signs.
00:44:31.000They come and get Mike Rogers signs.0.99
00:44:33.000Before President Trump came to my church, before I prayed at the inauguration, preached at the RT, black people, they didn't feel comfortable.0.99
00:44:39.000But our argument has always been this.0.93
00:44:42.000Look at the largest majority voting blocks in each respective state, whether you look at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia.
00:44:50.000When you look at these states, even when you look at a place like Maryland, what do we see?0.92
00:44:54.000We see that these are the places that have the largest voting blocks that are black.0.96
00:44:59.000And we understand that those black people never get the contracts, the grants, the loans because they're democratically led.
00:45:05.000So Republicans have been messaging to black people here's your opportunity to come and work with the Republican Party so that you can get the resources that you should get.
00:45:15.000And we believe that we are not entitled to the lion's share because this is a majority white Christian country, which is the greatest country of all time.
00:45:24.000We believe that we should get our fair share.
00:45:26.000And now, black Republicans are feeling like I can come out of my conservative cave, so to speak, because I'm supported by people like the Charlie Kirk Show, by people like me, by people like our president that are willing to support those new black conservatives.
00:45:39.000How much is the Haley Stevens endorsement going to play with black voters?
00:45:44.000Well, it's great for optics, but black people aren't going to vote for Mike Rogers because of Haley Stevens.0.99
00:45:50.000I think her political career is now resurrected as it relates to the president inviting her to be a part of the MAGA movement.
00:45:56.000I believe it does great for Jewish people.
00:45:58.000But in terms of Black people voting for Mike Rogers, they're going to vote for Mike Rogers because the president endorsed him.
00:46:05.000Haley Stevens, is that a good thing that she did that?
00:46:07.000Obviously, that she loves now her own people standing up for Jewish people and that she is willing to actually help Black people stop the greatest genocide that has happened against Black people as it relates to abortion.
00:46:18.000So, yes, she did a great thing in terms of her integrity and her own political career.
00:46:22.000Well, man, I hope that it is resonating loudly around Michigan.
00:46:27.000You know, the polls, Lorenzo, Pastor, they have Mike Rogers way down.
00:46:33.000New York Times says he's down 11 points or something like that.
00:46:37.000But it's good to remember that the polls also had Haley Stevens down 16, 19 points, and she lost by one point.
00:46:43.000So if we can recreate that situation, then he's going to win by four.
00:47:01.000Before President Trump came to Detroit, a Republican hadn't been there since Reagan.0.69
00:47:06.000Now, since he's come to Detroit, Republicans feel comfortable being able to court the black vote.0.98
00:47:10.000Well, I hope you were right, Pastor.0.99
00:47:13.000You know, the Washington Post had an interesting poll where it was basically, you know, something like 83% of blacks in Michigan want a Democrat controlled Senate, but only about 67% of them are planning on voting for El Sayed.0.60
00:47:26.000That softness there could mean the difference between a Republican senator and a Democrat senator in the state of Michigan.
00:47:34.000So we hope you are right when we pray and we petition the Lord that you are right and that we don't let this.
00:47:42.000Trojan horse into the United States Senate.0.98
00:47:44.000We don't let somebody that hates this country, hates white people, hates Jewish people, into the United States Senate.0.99
00:48:06.000We want to go through with you a little primer on the Turning Point Action app, okay?
00:48:12.000So to get it, you just go to tpaction.comslash app.
00:48:17.000And it will guide you to downloading it either on the Apple Store or on the Google Play Store, whichever you prefer, whatever phone system that you have.
00:48:28.000And then you open it up and then you see this.
00:48:30.000This is the first screen that you see.
00:48:54.000So you hit that arrow, those three arrows, and it opens up and it gives you all these options make calls, chase ballots, attend a super chase event.
00:49:04.000So if you do make calls, you can do Maha, Iowa calls, Biggs Latino coalition calls, LD3 in Arizona, LD4, LD11, LD13.
00:49:50.000What is any tips, tricks, things that kind of confuse you that you want to make sure are clear for the audience?
00:49:56.000Well, it could definitely, we'll work on this, of course, for 28.
00:49:59.000You can definitely have issues where, like, you populate if you're going to go door knock, for example, and make sure you're in the right areas and all that.
00:50:35.000So, and one of the things when you're doing the walk maps, if you are going to go door to door, for example, you open it up, voters near you, and it assigns you basically.
00:50:47.000So, if you say you're with two people and you both have the app, it's going to give both people different houses to hit, right?
00:50:52.000Because it's assigning specific houses to you so that they're not duplicated.
00:50:58.000So, that actually, because I went out with Ryan and And we both had different houses to hit, but it was good because then when we hit one of my houses, then we hit his house and vice versa back and forth.
00:51:07.000But it took me a second to realize that that was what was happening because it actually gives you specific names and you sort of become the owner of them, right?
00:51:14.000So definitely, definitely take advantage of the Turning Point Action app.
00:51:18.000We put a lot of resources and thought and time and energy into that and populate it with all the data and it updates.
00:51:23.000So the data is continuously updating as ballots come in.
00:51:26.000So it should be as up to date as possible.
00:51:29.000Now, sometimes it takes a little while for the Secretary of State.
00:51:32.000To turn around those ballots and then for us to update our system.
00:51:35.000So there might be some lag, but generally speaking, it's accurate.
00:53:53.000We tend to have problems on election day.
00:53:55.000Shenanigans tend to happen on election day.
00:53:58.000So, this is yet another reason why banking your vote early is very, very helpful.
00:54:03.000So, we've got to have a huge day on election day across the country Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Texas, Florida.
00:54:12.000There are so many states that we can win, and we can turn what they think is going to be a blue tsunami into a Either a blue trickle or a red trickle.
00:54:22.000I'm not as bullish as one of the options being a red tsunami.
00:54:25.000I don't think that's really in the cards this year.
00:54:27.000I just want to lay it on thick because we say it over and over, but we have to get this through.
00:54:32.000Everything about this election is a turnout election.
00:54:34.000Everything about this is an enthusiasm election.
00:54:37.000If we lose tomorrow, it is not going to be because all of these voters switch from Republican to Democrat.
00:54:44.000There will be voters who do that, but categorically, both parties are going to have far lower turnout than they did in 2024.
00:54:52.000Both parties will have much lower turnout.
00:54:57.000And so, If you are blowing off this election because you think it just doesn't matter that much, you only really care about voting for Trump, you just didn't feel like it, you felt tired, you felt sick, you have a candy hangover from Halloween, you are part of the, you're just part of those people who aren't turning out.
00:55:15.000And the Democrats are working very hard to get their people worked up into a frenzy.
00:55:41.000And everybody here, by definition, that is listening to this broadcast is probably a high propensity voter, meaning we don't have to worry about your ballots getting it.
00:56:12.000Make calls, send texts, do what you can right now in the races that matter most.
00:56:18.000You might just get Andy Biggs elected, you might just get Sununu elected in New Hampshire.
00:56:24.000I talk about jobs and industries on this show all the time, but I didn't expect to find an entire skills trade community on TikTok.
00:56:32.000Plumbers, electrician, builders, and contractors sharing the work they do every day.
00:56:37.000And it went way beyond tips and tricks.
00:56:39.000People were sharing their craft, connecting with local contractors, and talking about how they were building their businesses and growing their teams.
00:56:46.000It opened my eyes to how people in the trades are using TikTok to share their skills, make connections, and find new opportunities.
00:56:52.000I remember thinking, this is exactly what we need more of people sharing what they know and creating opportunities for others.
00:56:58.000And I never expected to find a community like this.
00:57:02.000You start with something you know, and suddenly you're finding a whole new side of it that surprises you and leaves you wanting to know more.
00:57:08.000Your next discovery is waiting for you on TikTok.
00:57:11.000Learn more at TikTok.comslash discover more.
00:57:17.000Ari Fleischer, Fleischer Communications, former White House press secretary.
00:57:21.000And I should say this out front, Ari, you are working on the Michigan race, but that's why I wanted you here because this was a bombshell heard around the political world.
00:57:31.000The question is, with Haley Stevens obviously endorsing Mike Rogers yesterday, the question is, will it matter?
00:57:37.000And I want to throw up this New York Times poll because it's.
00:58:04.000And does the Haley Stevens endorsement, is it going to move the needle?
00:58:07.000Yeah, it reminds me of the poll that showed Wisconsin was going to go 18 points for Kamala Harris.
00:58:14.000I mean, there's something going on with the polls this cycle.
00:58:17.000And either you believe them, they certainly have been good news and put wind in the sails behind the Democrats, or you realize that a lot of Republicans have just not shown any interest in talking to pollsters or hitting on their phone who they're voting for.
00:59:50.000If you think that these Republicans are going to treat you as anything other than what they view you as, and that is, let me just break the news to you, a used condom.0.94
01:00:01.000The Democrats don't even think you're worth a used condom, but that's about where you are.0.51
01:01:20.000So when Haley Stevens comes out and endorses Mike Rogers, she's the type of person who gives permission to that undecided Democrat anti-Trump group to vote for Mike Rogers because Haley Stevens did it.
01:01:34.000And Haley Stevens also got 49% of the vote in the Democrat primary against Abdul.
01:01:39.000So she does have a following in Michigan.
01:02:06.000Polling in Michigan last few cycles because in 2024 it was a two point miss in the polls in Trump's favor.
01:02:14.000In 2020, it was an over two point miss in the polls where it was showing, you know, it still had Biden one or one, however you want to interpret it, but it looked much uglier.
01:02:23.0002016, two and a half, almost three points in the polls.
01:04:21.000And to put a point on it, you remarked about the Democratic primary polls and the race between Saeed and Haley Stevens and how those polls dramatically by double digits overinflated Abdul's lead, and he only won by one percentage point.
01:04:36.000What I think happens inside the Democratic Party, which is such a party that is in tune with identity politics and racial politics and the importance of saying things that are racially pleasing, chromosomally pleasing, this is kind of what the Democrats define themselves as.
01:04:52.000I think a lot of Democrats, when they're on the phone with a pollster or even just entering a digit in their phone to talk to the internet on behalf of a poll, as part of a poll, they cannot bring themselves to say, I'm against Abdul El-Said.
01:05:08.000So they tell the pollster, I'm for Abdul, because it's expected to be that way based on identity politics inside the Democratic Party.
01:05:30.000It's the fact that he won't even acknowledge that Israel has a right to exist.
01:05:34.000It's the fact that he won't say Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state.
01:05:37.000So if you're a Jewish voter in Michigan and identity politics and care and compassion, all that is part of who you are, you've never voted Republican before.0.89
01:05:47.000Yeah, you lie to the pollsters because it's expected of you.0.93
01:07:20.000So the black vote is on the move, but particularly in Michigan, there's been a history of strife between the Arab and the black community in Detroit, and Mike Rogers is working hard.
01:08:24.000It's so interesting to divide between the polling and the vibes on that race because that's definitely the one where you just feel the Democrat keeps stepping in it, keeps alienating people.
01:08:33.000It's fair to say that's an independent campaign.
01:08:35.000Like you can tell the story, you can so easily write the story.
01:08:38.000But let's take a look at a national level.
01:08:40.000Ari, we asked this to Ryan as well, and we want to be honest about it.
01:08:43.000The polls say we're likely to lose the House, might lose the Senate, might really lose the Senate.
01:09:39.000And that seems to be the era we're in where control of the House, control of the Senate, whoever is unfortunate enough to get it by a really small margin can't hold it very long.
01:09:50.000It's almost like the country is screaming that they want the center to be strong.
01:10:38.000Are they going to nominate an Abdul El Said type candidate?
01:10:41.000Are they going to nominate an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez candidate?
01:10:45.000Is this progressive movement, is the socialist ascendancy inside the Democratic Party so strong that it can deliver a presidential candidate?
01:10:53.000If it does that, Republicans are going to win the White House by a huge margin in 2028.
01:11:04.000But the rest of America just ain't there.
01:11:07.000Now, on the Republican side, of course, who's going to win?
01:11:11.000But I'll tell you this, as somebody who made a living in establishment Republican politics, but who has always been very open-minded about President Trump, his strengths and his weaknesses, that battle is settled inside the Republican Party.
01:11:23.000The populist movement that Donald Trump brought to power in 2015 and 2016 has won.
01:11:30.000The old country club establishment Republicans are really now Democrats.
01:11:35.000And they didn't give Donald Trump a fair chance.
01:12:04.000And I would have to say, edge to JD just because he is the vice president.
01:12:08.000And, you know, he's done, I think, a A pretty good job of taking those center cuts, you know, 60, 70% positive issues, whether it's the war, fraud.
01:12:17.000So, but listen, it's going to be interesting to watch.
01:13:02.000And that's a huge question mark to me.
01:13:05.000And it's going to likely take weeks to know who wins Alaska because of its ranked choice voter system.
01:13:12.000And if the Democrats take those four, Then they're up in the Senate by one vote, which makes the Michigan flip turn it back into a 50 50 Senate, which means Republicans keep the Senate.
01:13:24.000So, Republicans in my book win 51 49 if they keep Alaska, 50 50 if they lose Alaska.
01:13:31.000So, you think Texas, you think Paxton loses that?
01:14:06.000But just looking at who would have been a stronger candidate to keep the seat, I think there's no question John Cornyn would have kept the seat.
01:14:13.000I think this had to do with personal animosity and personal issues between President Trump and John Cornyn, his loyalty to Ken Paxson.
01:14:19.000Ken Paxson's always been great for Donald Trump.
01:14:22.000So I think Donald Trump made a personal loyalty decision as opposed to what is the best candidate to win the state decision.