Today's episode of the Charlie Kirk Show is all about turning the summer into a Low Props Summer and turning the midterms into a low turnout summer. Today's episode is a mashup of a few of my favorite segments from the past few days that I think will have a lot of impact on the outcome of the election. 1:00 - Why Joe Biden is having a hard time getting Democratic voters out to the polls 2:30 - How to turn out Democratic voters 3:15 - Why the Democratic Party is losing ground to the Trump Campaign 4:20 - Why Trump is doing so well with the voters who are less likely to vote in 2020 5:00 Who will win the election in November? 6:10 - Who will lose the election if Democratic voters turn out in droves in midterms? 11:30 What's going on with Baby Boomer Turnout? 12:00- Why Democrats are losing ground with the Baby Boomers 13:30- Why Trump has the best chance to win in 2020 14:15- Who's going to vote for Trump in 2020? 15:10- Why the election will be a referendum on the 2020 election? 16:10 17:40 - Who are the Low Probability Voters? 18:40- What is a Low Perfensity voter? 19:15 Can the election be won by the Right-wing Revolution? 21:40 22:00 -- Who will vote for Donald Trump? 23:30 -- Who's the better candidate? 26:40 -- Who is the most likely to turn the vote? 27:20 -- Who do you think Joe Biden has the biggest chance of winning the election this fall? 29:30 Is Joe Biden going to be the best presidential candidate in 2020 or Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren? 32:00-- Is there any chance that Joe Biden a better candidate than Donald Trump a better presidential candidate than Hillary Clinton? 35:30-- Is the election going to have the most Democratic candidate than Joe Biden the most vulnerable? 36:40-- Who will be the most electable candidate in the election is going to win the 2020 midterms in 2020 than Trump s chances? 37: Who will turn out the most votes? 39:10 -- Who has the highest turnout? 40:00 Is there a chance that Donald Trump better than the other guy? 45:00 ...
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00:02:40.000If you're someone who didn't vote in the 2022 midterms, if you're someone who didn't vote in 2020, if you're someone who didn't vote in the 2018 midterms, you are a low-propensity voter.
00:02:51.000Typically, Republicans do well with higher propensity voters.
00:02:55.000As we mentioned yesterday, and my email inbox looked like Hiroshima and Nagasaki after I even read the article that baby boomers are favoring Joe Biden.
00:04:00.000That's all I'm going to say about that.
00:04:03.0002020 was the highest turnout election of the century.
00:04:06.000While early voting and mail votes will be widespread this year, It's almost certain that turnout will fail.
00:04:13.000And the question is, who will fall for it more?
00:04:16.000It used to be taken as a given that Democrats were the low propensity party, the low turnout voters, immigrant communities, the young, the poor, and so on.
00:04:25.000But 2024 and Trump's political realignment has changed the game.
00:04:29.000Poll after poll shows a trend that was previously hard to ever grasp or imagine.
00:04:35.000Donald Trump does worse with people who make a point in voting every election.
00:04:40.000While polling best among those who vote sparingly or not even at all.
00:04:44.000This is the entire election, everybody.
00:04:48.000If you were to say what is going to determine November, it is low prop voters.
00:04:53.000If you look at people who voted in the 2022 primary elections, representing the most committed, highest turnout elections, things seem very sunny for Joe Biden.
00:05:03.000He leads in this group by about five points, according to recent New York Times polling.
00:05:08.000Among those who skipped the primaries but voted in the midterm general election, Biden is up one point.
00:05:14.000But among voters who last ballot was in 2020, Donald Trump leads by two.
00:05:21.000Among those who voted in none of those elections, Trump is leading by 14 points.
00:05:28.000This is hard to believe, and it only gets even more radical when you dive into the data.
00:05:33.000A May Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump leading Biden by one point among those ages 18 to 34, when no Republican had won younger voters since 1988.
00:05:43.000The same poll shows Donald Trump getting 47% of Hispanics and 18% of Blacks.
00:05:48.000For comparison, Mitt Romney managed only 27% and 6% respective in those groups.
00:05:54.000This is the most profound political swerve of our lifetime.
00:05:57.000It is a huge opportunity, but it also is a major risk.
00:06:01.000It's a risk because you might end up leading in the polls, but you might lose in the ballots because you might be polling people who actually are not going to end up voting.
00:06:09.000This is why Donald Trump traditionally outperforms polling, because these people are not always in the likely voter polling survey.
00:06:19.000If we do the work of getting those low props registered, if we do the work of getting those people onto the voting rolls, we're going to have a structural advantage.
00:06:32.000This is the most profound political swerve of our lifetime.
00:06:36.000The American electorate now seems to lean to the right, but they're also discouraged, disengaged, and quite honestly, sometimes a little bit lazy.
00:06:44.000Not you in this audience, but some people.
00:06:46.000For decades, it was Democrats who built aggressive get-out-the-vote operations, but they rightly believed they'd benefit if turnout went generally higher.
00:06:56.000Republicans, meanwhile, worried that maximizing the turnout of our core base.
00:07:01.000America is filled with millions of people who dislike Biden and like Trump, but who are otherwise disengaged.
00:07:08.000They rarely or never vote, and they may not even be registered.
00:07:13.000Shockingly, there are millions of people Who actually follow politics, listen to shows like this one, and care about the country, yet they still don't vote.
00:07:22.000I've seen this myself countless times.
00:07:47.000Whenever you have a reason to think that you are with a fellow conservative or just somebody who hates Biden, take the leap and say, are you registered?
00:07:56.000And if they are not, help them get registered.
00:08:04.000In fact, just in the next room, one of our interns, Danny, goes to The Ohio State University, went up to a rodeo to go register voters.
00:08:13.000Talked to five people, and the first five people all went, we love Trump, we don't believe in voting because it's all rigged, it's all broken.
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00:13:35.000James Carville warns about how bad Joe Biden's poll numbers are, but Joe Biden thinks that his path forward I don't think people really appreciate how bad Biden's poll numbers are.
00:13:45.000When you look at them, it's like walking down your grandmother's neck.
00:14:18.000And if it wasn't for the ballot chasing effort at Turning Point Action, let me be clear, the new RNC and the Trump campaign, they're doing a great job.
00:14:25.000James Blair, Susie Wiles, Chris Lasavita, Stephen Chung, Laura Trump, Michael Whatley, we're working well together and they're playing catch up.
00:14:31.000They're doing a much, much better job.
00:14:34.000But this is a structural problem that we've inherited.
00:15:14.000If just a couple thousand people in this audience, because not everyone's going to do it.
00:15:18.000Not everyone is committed to actually do work.
00:15:21.000But if a couple thousand people in this audience, let's say 1,000 people, register a couple hundred people, that is 200,000 new voters.
00:15:31.000And what Jono is doing is in the battleground state of Georgia, that could make the entire program.
00:15:37.000It is easy and it's fun because we gamify it.
00:15:41.000And now with Donald Trump's new announcement that he won't tax tips, every time you go out to eat at a Denny's or IHOP or a TGI Fridays or at the local steakhouse or the local bar, engage your waiter or waitress.
00:15:54.000Be bold enough to have that conversation.
00:16:52.000He loves dogs and is on a mission to help as many as he can.
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00:17:02.000It is book launch week and we've been going on Newsmax a lot and joining us now is the CEO of Newsmax, NewsmaxInvest.com, Christopher Ruddy.
00:17:09.000trial bag. So fetch your free Jumpstart trial bag.
00:17:12.000Just cover shipping. Don't change your dog's food.
00:17:14.000Just go to roughgreens.com slash Kirk.
00:18:31.000And we felt, you know, this year that I've had so many people through the years say, can I buy shares of Newsmax?
00:18:37.000And we thought, you know, wouldn't it be great if we had thousands of people invest in Newsmax, become partners.
00:18:44.000So we're planning on going IPO later this year or early next year, subject to government approval.
00:18:50.000And we have a great investment bank bringing us public.
00:18:53.000We're doing what's known as a pre-IPO raise in preferred shares where they get a 7% dividend.
00:18:59.000So eligible investors known as accredited investors can go online to Newsmaxinvest.com and actually sign up now if they're eligible to be a subscriber.
00:19:09.000Certainly get information about the upcoming IPO, but they can buy shares and even buy credit card.
00:19:16.000And we've gotten a phenomenal response.
00:19:18.000And I think America is saying they want to have more fair media.
00:19:31.000Talk about the need to build that kind of alternative media, especially this election cycle, where the mainstream media still has so much power over our society.
00:19:40.000Well, you're doing important work on radio, and I know you're having a tremendous impact, Charlie.
00:19:46.000And you know, when the internet came along, I was one of the first websites, conservative sites, Newsmax.com, and we thought, wow, this is great.
00:19:54.000We're going to start bypassing the liberal media.
00:20:44.000We don't need the money because we're a profitable company, but we're selling a share of Newsmax so that we can grow and be bigger, both online, on television, on podcasts and things like that.
00:20:56.000And, you know, the more bigger we are, the more impact we can have.
00:21:00.000And we need more alternative media, especially with the woke stuff that we're seeing.
00:21:05.000From every media organization now in America that's not openly conservative, they're all pretty much polarized and weaponized.
00:21:27.000It says, Charlie, some friends of mine and I went out to some burgers at a place called Mulligan's in Jensen Beach, Florida.
00:21:34.000One paying out bill, I put that little note for Trump and he will stop taxes on your tips.
00:21:40.000A day or two later, I think it was, but he got the same waitress and she was there on breakfast shift as well.
00:21:45.000Later, I repeated the same message on the bill and she came back and said, you know, you're not the first person that has written that I've gotten a lot of people saying that lately.
00:21:53.000She's never voted a day in her life, but she's now registered to vote and will vote for Trump.
00:21:59.000See, that's the sort of grassroots tenacity and hustle that is necessary.
00:24:24.000The emails we're receiving are quite remarkable.
00:24:27.000And they're saying, wait, Charlie, I can register people to vote.
00:24:30.000Yes, you can go out and register new people onto the voter rolls and to chase ballots.
00:24:37.000There is a serious issue in front of us, which is If we are not able to find the people that should be voting for us, then Biden might ultimately be successful, and that's not me fear-mongering.
00:24:56.000This is one of our ballot-chasing classes out in Wisconsin that will be registering voters, getting people out to vote, especially low-prop voters.
00:25:05.000Every single one of us has the agency to make a significant difference.
00:28:06.000I want them to win and finish the war.
00:28:08.000But I was smeared and slandered by many people as being called an anti-Semite and conspiracy theorist for what is now reported in the Jerusalem Post.
00:28:15.000The IDF knew of Hamas's plan to kidnap 250 before the October 7th attack.
00:28:21.000The IDF had precise information about Hamas intentions, but due to prevailing conceptions in the security establishment, possibly negligence by officials, the warning signs were not acted on.
00:28:30.000I went on the Patrick Bet-David podcast.
00:29:28.000Washington Times, I could go through all the different publications that publish that nonsense.
00:29:34.000There was a document titled, Detailed End-to-End Raid Training, was distributed on September 19, 2023, and described in detail the series of exercises conducted by Hamas elite units.
00:29:45.000These exercises included raiding military posts and kibbutzim, collective communities in Israel, kidnapping soldiers and civilians, and maintaining the hostages once they were in the Gaza Strip.
00:29:56.000The report by Kan News stated, quote, security sources told Kan News that the document was known to intelligence leadership, at least in the Gaza Division.
00:30:06.000The Jerusalem Post reports that warning signs of the October 7th attack were not acted on.
00:30:11.000The IDF had precise information about Hamas's intentions, but due to prevailing conceptions within the security establishment and possible negligence by security officials, the warning signs were not acted upon.
00:30:21.000The report further detailed that Israeli intelligence officials monitored the exercises and documented the steps Hamas planned to take after breaching Israeli territory and taking over military posts.
00:30:32.000The expected number of hostages, according to the document, was between 200 and 250 people.
00:30:37.000Quote, Israeli intelligence officials who monitored the exercise detailed in the document all the steps that were taken.
00:30:43.000The expected number of hostages is 250 people.
00:30:45.000So then the General Staff Investigation Team is expected to present initial findings from the failure to the Chief of Staff in the coming weeks as the country seeks to understand how a lapse in security could occur despite having detailed advanced knowledge of the enemy's plans.
00:30:58.000So, the Israeli government knew that the attack was going to happen.
00:31:01.000That is now what Jerusalem Post is saying.
00:31:04.000The IDF is very, very close to victory.
00:31:06.000So, this timing of this story is quite interesting, probably from the liberal arm.
00:31:21.000This is me on the Patrick Bet-David Show.
00:31:22.000And I say this again, I want Israel to finish the war, to win the war, all in.
00:31:28.000But I said what I said, and what I said is true, and it is a learning lesson.
00:31:32.000That when somebody says something that is rooted in shared experience, and he's also on your side, I was attacked by so many conservatives as being a conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones type, I don't even know what that means.
00:31:48.000This was me on the Patrick Bet-David Show.
00:31:50.000It was the number one most viral clip for almost three to four days straight.
00:32:56.000This is the Jerusalem Post that they wrote here.
00:33:00.000Quote, The country seeks to understand how such a lapse in security could occur despite having detailed advanced knowledge of the enemy's plans.