The Culture War - Tim Pool - March 05, 2026


Democrats LOSE, California IS FLIPPING REPUBLICAN


Episode Stats

Length

23 minutes

Words per Minute

174.88905

Word Count

4,059

Sentence Count

349

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary


Transcript

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00:01:04.480 California is on the verge of flipping to Republican governorship due to the structure of their elections.
00:01:12.240 The simple version is everybody, regardless of party, is running against each other,
00:01:18.000 and the top two contenders advance to a general election.
00:01:22.240 This means, as of right now, the top two contenders being both Republicans,
00:01:27.840 the general election for the governorship of California may be between Republican A and Republican B,
00:01:34.720 and the people in California can only choose Republican.
00:01:38.240 You know, I really love their popular vote dictates method.
00:01:43.280 See, I believe in an electoral college system.
00:01:45.200 I think, obviously, it makes no sense that if 70% of the state wants a Democrat,
00:01:50.640 that you'd get a Republican with 15%.
00:01:53.440 I'm not kidding.
00:01:54.560 But these are the rules these people would live by.
00:01:57.040 And so I say, by all means, you may have what you have asked for.
00:02:01.520 So for the longest time, California, as well as many other states,
00:02:05.280 have talked about this national popular vote coalition,
00:02:08.160 that the president should be chosen by the popular vote and not by an electoral college system.
00:02:12.640 Basically, the system set up by the founding fathers was attempting to weigh the interests
00:02:17.440 of sovereign states against each other, trying to find some kind of balance, not an easy thing to do.
00:02:23.040 Recognizing that a popular vote could result in large cities overpowering smaller states and effectively oppressing them.
00:02:31.520 So they said, then let's set the electoral college vote up by how many senators and congressional representatives you have.
00:02:40.560 So it's a mixed bag.
00:02:42.760 Basically, you get a member of Congress based on, you know, breaking up over a certain number of people.
00:02:48.100 It used to be like 35,000.
00:02:49.720 Now it's 775,000.
00:02:52.200 But you will always get two senators, no matter what.
00:02:56.080 This meant that Rhode Island, which is the size of my thumbnail, is going to get one member of Congress and two senators.
00:03:03.360 So effectively, everybody's going to get at least two votes.
00:03:06.840 However, because we are somewhat still dealing with a population that's deciding on the president,
00:03:12.280 we'll also add in the member of Congress.
00:03:14.160 They will then, you'll get an elector for each of these individuals, and they will then cast their vote for president.
00:03:19.480 It creates some kind of balance.
00:03:21.000 Well, California liberals and many others in these blue states say, let's do away with all that and vote purely based on popular vote.
00:03:28.200 And what that gets you is, okay, whoever gets the most votes wins.
00:03:33.820 And as of right now, according to the polling, it's two Republicans.
00:03:37.180 So indeed, my friends, CalMatters says California Democrats could sabotage their party's race for governor.
00:03:45.260 And the scary thing is, well, I don't know if it's scary in this regard, but in general, they say that California is five to ten years ahead of the rest of the country.
00:03:54.540 And Gavin Newsom is the frontrunner for 2028, who is the current governor.
00:03:58.900 Expect all of the worst things imaginable as California, which is, it's got a lot of problems.
00:04:04.540 I'm going to go through a list of all their problems from homelessness, affordability, indeed, bubonic plague.
00:04:12.180 Okay, that's not fair.
00:04:13.500 They have some bubonic plague, but it's not like it's a pandemic or anything like that.
00:04:19.140 They just have some.
00:04:21.480 Maybe that's fine.
00:04:22.800 I don't know.
00:04:23.540 But let's go over this.
00:04:24.720 Let's break this all down.
00:04:25.580 Before we do, my friends, smash the like button.
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00:04:42.600 Here's a story from CalMatters, how California Democrat candidates could sabotage their party's race for governor.
00:04:48.060 Let's start with this real quick.
00:04:50.280 And I'll show you this from interactive polls.
00:04:53.100 The governor top two will advance.
00:04:55.380 And so you can see that Chad Bianco at 15% versus Steve Hilton at 15% are the two frontrunners, followed by Swalwell at 14, Porter at 13, Steyer at 10, Villaraigosa at 7, Becerra 5, Yee 2, and Thurmond 1.
00:05:12.440 Now, here's the real simple thing.
00:05:14.280 If half the Democrats dropped out, then you'd get two Democrats.
00:05:17.500 So I think that that is a strong possibility.
00:05:20.180 It just depends on how different do these people view themselves.
00:05:26.720 And because the Democratic Party has progressives and moderates and corporate, elite, neolib, whatever, it may actually be that these candidates are so at odds with each other, they refuse to back down.
00:05:38.280 And that would be fantastic if California got a Republican leader.
00:05:41.080 Cal Matters says,
00:06:11.080 California, you must do everything you can to go out and vote because right now, if nothing changes, it is going to be Republican versus Republican for the governorship.
00:06:24.160 And this this kind of thing does happen.
00:06:26.200 You know, it does.
00:06:27.480 If some Democrats drop out and it boosts Swalwell, it could be Democrat versus Republican.
00:06:32.620 Well, if everybody on the right went out and voted, you can make sure that doesn't happen.
00:06:38.220 They're going to say under California's two party system, blah, blah, blah, but we get it.
00:06:42.040 With so many Democrats potentially splitting the vote, they could be shut out.
00:06:45.740 At least one Democrat is bowing out.
00:06:48.320 Former State Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon withdrew from the race Thursday and endorsed Swalwell.
00:06:54.080 Okay, we have to do it.
00:06:57.420 I'm sorry.
00:06:59.940 Is this is this it right here?
00:07:02.280 Do I have it?
00:07:04.020 I think I have it pre-saved.
00:07:06.760 No, no, no, no, no.
00:07:09.020 It is pre-saved.
00:07:10.680 It is pre-saved.
00:07:12.420 And I have the video.
00:07:14.220 And I hate to do this to you.
00:07:16.020 But this is from 2019.
00:07:17.260 And Swalwell is the front runner.
00:07:18.440 The evidence is uncontradicted that the president used taxpayer dollars to ask the Ukrainians to help him cheat an election.
00:07:26.380 And the complaint that I've heard from the evidence is uncontradicted that the president used taxpayer dollars to ask the Ukrainians to help him cheat an election.
00:07:34.580 And the complaint that I've heard.
00:07:35.700 Okay, he farted on TV.
00:07:37.660 And they claimed he didn't.
00:07:39.180 But you can see him tense up and pause and fart on TV.
00:07:42.960 And this guy is the front runner for the Democrats in California to be governor.
00:07:47.660 Help him cheat an election.
00:07:49.640 Help him cheat an election.
00:07:51.540 Come on!
00:07:52.620 MSNBC claimed they were sliding a mug across the table and it made that noise.
00:07:57.040 Bro, spare me.
00:07:59.660 He farted.
00:08:00.880 He's in.
00:08:01.820 You know what it is?
00:08:02.700 People don't understand that the Capitol, like the Rotunda, like that room, it's echoey.
00:08:09.020 It is crazy.
00:08:09.980 So he farts.
00:08:11.460 Everybody heard it.
00:08:13.200 So he's winning.
00:08:13.960 And he might actually make it because he's getting these endorsements.
00:08:20.680 Ultimately, every candidate has to make a clear right assessment about whether they can assemble the resources necessary to run a competitive statewide campaign.
00:08:27.020 Calderon said.
00:08:28.360 In a race of the scale, a message only matters if you have the resources to ensure Californians can actually see and hear it.
00:08:32.780 Now, I do think, to be completely honest, you'll get some people dropping out when they realize they're not going to win.
00:08:37.620 We'll see, though.
00:08:38.140 They do say the remaining eight candidates seem unfazed.
00:08:42.200 Former Orange County Rep Katie Porter pointed to her position in the polls tied with two other Democrats and two Republicans.
00:08:48.960 Former state controller Betty Yee was buoyed by support from party delegates at a convention last month.
00:08:54.320 Superintendent Thurmond, polling at 2%, cast his campaign as bucking political elites and said by favoring those with higher polling numbers, party leaders were essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out.
00:09:05.380 Meanwhile, L.A. Mayor Villarigosa singled out former state attorney Becerra, a fellow Latina, to drop out under the rationale that doing so would reduce the chances of two Republicans advancing.
00:09:19.840 Becerra responded on social media that Villarigosa had never won statewide office before, but I have and I'll do it again.
00:09:26.180 Let's go.
00:09:27.240 You know what we need to do?
00:09:28.960 Did you guys ever see the Simpsons episode where the teachers are going to go on strike?
00:09:31.380 And then Bart goes to the teacher and he says, I heard Skinner saying the teachers are going to cave.
00:09:37.360 And then they go, huh?
00:09:38.660 And then they start whispering to each other.
00:09:40.900 And then Krabappel is like, Skinner saying we're going to cave purple monkey dishwasher.
00:09:46.080 That is that is an absurd statement, especially the purple monkey dishwasher thing.
00:09:50.000 The point is you you what we need right now is for someone to just, you know, like whisper to like Villarigosa.
00:09:56.360 Like I heard Becerra said you suck.
00:09:58.260 I'm kidding, by the way.
00:10:00.060 Calm down.
00:10:00.480 The point is, so long as they keep fighting with each other and refusing to drop out, you're going to get Republicans winning in California.
00:10:07.700 Whatever the justification, seven Democrats have already met Friday's deadline to file the paperwork that officially puts their names in the primary election ballot.
00:10:14.620 Billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer headed to file Thursday, but indicated he would remain in the race, making for an eight candidate Democratic field and raising the possibility of an all Republican gubernatorial election this fall.
00:10:25.560 Are you kidding me?
00:10:27.540 They say.
00:10:27.960 Concern has been percolating for months, prompting Democratic data guru Paul Mitchell to set up a website with the latest polling data.
00:10:34.920 Let's let's see what he's got going on to run statistical models, predicting the chances of an all Republican general election.
00:10:40.520 It's swung anywhere between 10 and 18 percent in recent weeks.
00:10:43.520 And Tuesday, long shot Republican contender John Slavitt withdrew from the race, further consolidating support among the two GOP frontrunners.
00:10:49.660 Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton.
00:10:54.620 The chances of Bianco and Hilton advancing shot up on his model to 28 percent.
00:11:00.560 Let's see.
00:11:02.660 California top two twins.
00:11:06.360 So how does this work?
00:11:07.900 Preloaded polls as of March.
00:11:11.620 Select polls, adjust settings and then hit the button to find out who's on top.
00:11:15.220 Which button?
00:11:15.900 Oh, there you go.
00:11:16.680 All right, let's get it.
00:11:17.260 So right now.
00:11:19.720 Wow.
00:11:20.220 Look at it.
00:11:20.560 Run these.
00:11:21.240 It's running that math like crazy.
00:11:23.320 Chad Bianco.
00:11:24.120 And this is insane.
00:11:26.800 This is a wow.
00:11:28.860 Five thousand polls.
00:11:30.860 All is it?
00:11:31.800 Is that what it is?
00:11:32.260 Five thousand?
00:11:33.040 Chad Bianco greater than 60 percent to Steve Hilton.
00:11:36.640 Sixty percent.
00:11:38.000 Swalwell sitting at just just about 43 percent.
00:11:41.780 Holy crap.
00:11:43.320 Swalwell, Porter and Steyer have a decent probability of making the top two.
00:11:47.260 But the two favorites still right now are Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, which could mean California goes Republican.
00:11:54.480 Hey, they got what?
00:11:55.960 Like 10 million Republicans in the state.
00:11:58.120 If every single one came out and voted, they'd get it.
00:12:02.860 We will see, however, my friends, because it all takes a couple to drop out.
00:12:07.760 So we shall see.
00:12:09.540 And let's let's take a look at what's who's currently running, says The New York Times.
00:12:13.280 And we'll see what we've actually got.
00:12:15.980 Xavier Becerra.
00:12:17.320 He was Joe Biden's secretary of health and human services.
00:12:20.200 So we got a lefty.
00:12:21.940 Chad, Chad Bianco, a law enforcement officer, was elected sheriff of Riverside County, a fast growing rural area.
00:12:27.060 And you know what?
00:12:27.720 I'm going to say this.
00:12:28.420 It is great that both Chad and Steve are running.
00:12:32.000 If Chad were to drop out, of course, Steve Hilton would be guaranteed to advance.
00:12:35.860 If Steve were to drop out, Chad would advance.
00:12:37.560 But you would then have Democrat v. Republican.
00:12:39.820 Democrat would win handily.
00:12:41.560 With these two taking the top spots, it could guarantee their victory.
00:12:47.380 Steve Hilton, of course, you've seen him probably on Timcast IRL, if not on Fox News.
00:12:50.860 He worked in conservative politics in Britain and moved to Silicon Valley for his wife's job at Google in 2012.
00:12:56.180 His campaign for governor has received support from Robert Murdoch, the conservative media magnate.
00:13:00.800 You got Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose.
00:13:02.960 Katie Porter, a professor, former congresswoman.
00:13:06.280 Tom Steyer, you know these people.
00:13:08.200 Eric Swelwell, we all saw him fart on TV.
00:13:10.720 Tony Thurman, Antonio Villarigosa.
00:13:13.640 Butch Ware for the Green Party, which I doubt he's going to drop out.
00:13:18.440 Betty Yee.
00:13:19.100 And that seems to be the case as of right now.
00:13:22.220 So we'll see, my friends.
00:13:24.000 We will see.
00:13:25.420 In the meantime, why should you be concerned about California?
00:13:29.200 Well, my friends, according to Google's AI, the notion that California is ahead of the rest of the U.S.,
00:13:35.380 often cited as 10 to 15 years ahead rather than just five, is a common perspective in politics, technology, and policy,
00:13:41.740 though it's accompanied by significant debate regarding its sustainability.
00:13:45.540 Now, several years ago, I had heard that it was about five years.
00:13:48.220 Well, they're arguing 10 to 15.
00:13:50.160 We don't want to be like California.
00:13:52.240 California sucks.
00:13:53.280 No, no, don't get me wrong.
00:13:54.200 The weather is beautiful.
00:13:55.220 It's got mountains and everything.
00:13:56.380 I'm talking about policy-wise.
00:13:58.680 It sucks.
00:14:00.760 And if it's true that the rest of this country is going to follow in those footsteps,
00:14:03.580 then I would very much like to see California get some Republican governorship, which changes the script,
00:14:09.520 and then maybe the future of the rest of this country may follow suit as well.
00:14:13.600 Not that the point isn't that California does something and then we just have to do it.
00:14:20.020 It's that California's politics and worldview are culturally impactful.
00:14:27.340 So even if by a fluke you get a Republican governor, it doesn't mean the rest of the U.S. will change,
00:14:31.860 especially when Newsom himself is the frontrunner for the Democratic Party.
00:14:35.400 Trump will be out.
00:14:36.200 And the question remains, will J.D. Vance have the X factor needed to defeat a Newsom if it comes down to Newsom v. J.D. Vance?
00:14:44.540 Well, right now, my friends, we got concerns over gas prices exploding in California due to their climate regulations.
00:14:51.800 We know that California's got bad law enforcement policy, bad immigration policy, bad gas policy.
00:14:59.060 I don't know that a governor is going to change all of that, even if he's a Republican.
00:15:02.760 My point is just we should hope for the future of California because the trend seems to affect us all the same.
00:15:11.200 And I know the point I just made earlier that whether they get a fluke governor or not doesn't change much.
00:15:16.960 However, you could also argue these things are still a component of the cultural shifts and trends.
00:15:22.660 And if enough people came out to vote for a Republican, maybe you will actually get not a popular vote victory like Trump just had,
00:15:29.900 but a minority vote victory with an Electoral College victory for 2028, giving it to J.D. Vance or maybe even a Rubio.
00:15:38.340 You know, I got to say this as an aside.
00:15:40.960 Rubio's really been impressing me over the past several months.
00:15:44.600 And it's not so much about his policy positions for which I'm like middle of the road on.
00:15:49.960 I'm not big on the foreign war stuff.
00:15:51.920 OK, but I'm also not like shrieking and pulling out my hair from the sides.
00:15:57.680 No, but he's been rather calm and reasoned and it's made it very difficult for them to go after.
00:16:03.920 The Democrats like to attack J.D. Vance, Trump or otherwise based on cultural issues they bring up.
00:16:08.560 And Rubio's been rather professional and refrained from this, which has given him a unique position.
00:16:14.640 And I think he's aware of it. So we may actually see him and be surprised.
00:16:19.080 However, back to California, Chevron warns Newsom's adversarial energy agenda will cripple California economy and send gas prices soaring.
00:16:30.880 My friends, you must, you must resist Democrats who are just burning everything down.
00:16:37.560 You know what I see?
00:16:38.180 I see a Democratic Party that tends towards give the baby their candy and a Republican Party that tends towards tell the kid to do his chores.
00:16:47.820 And here's the truth.
00:16:49.020 Everybody knows when you're a little kid and you say, I want ice cream.
00:16:52.780 You know, you got good cop, bad cop parents.
00:16:55.380 You know, maybe it's mom or dad.
00:16:56.460 Either way, one of them says you can't have ice cream until you finish your broccoli.
00:16:59.760 And they go, oh, but I want ice cream now.
00:17:01.880 And the other parent goes, I'm going to sneak you some ice cream.
00:17:04.880 Well, guess which one the kid likes?
00:17:06.380 Yes, the kid likes the pair that sneaks in the ice cream.
00:17:09.220 But is that good for the kid?
00:17:10.720 Nope.
00:17:11.400 That kid's going to grow up being a spoiled, entitled brat and have a hard time surviving on their own.
00:17:16.420 That's what I see with Democrats and Republicans.
00:17:18.280 The Democratic Party says, I'll say whatever you want to give you whatever you want so that you vote for me.
00:17:23.380 And the Republicans are like, sometimes we have to do hard things and it's going to suck, but it'll get better.
00:17:27.760 Well, I tell you this.
00:17:29.820 If the Republicans say, we're not going to make the economy perfect because everyone's got to buckle down and do hard work.
00:17:35.220 But five years from now, you will not regret it.
00:17:37.320 They're going to go, oh, just give it to me now.
00:17:39.740 And the Democrats are like, I'll just tax someone else and take their money from them.
00:17:42.980 Who do you want to blame?
00:17:44.780 Therein lies the problem.
00:17:46.260 The problem of Democratic leadership.
00:17:49.780 Chevron, I'm sure in response to this, a bunch of liberals are saying, yeah, but they're a big evil corporation.
00:17:54.880 There's this great scene in Landman where Jon Hamm's character, who, as most of you know, in season two, he is dead.
00:18:04.340 They're talking about protests and activists against energy companies.
00:18:08.000 He's like, we're drillers.
00:18:08.940 We're not oil companies.
00:18:10.220 It's like we have one customer.
00:18:11.460 We drill for oil companies.
00:18:13.540 So we're not going to play politics.
00:18:15.420 And then he makes a great point about all of these people protesting for climate don't even realize the clothing they're wearing is made of oil.
00:18:24.160 They have no idea what's actually going on.
00:18:27.460 And this is what Democrats do.
00:18:29.300 They latch onto a cause and tell you it's for your own good, and you have no idea why it's not.
00:18:34.560 Don't get me wrong.
00:18:35.080 Republicans are not perfect.
00:18:36.720 Industrialists, corporatists will absolutely skirt environmental regulations, poisoning us to turn a profit.
00:18:41.660 But that's not been so much the issue these days.
00:18:45.200 Since the MAGA movement, the populist movement, came in, the MAGA people have been kind of a hybrid, anti-establishment with former disaffected liberals and conservatives, though largely conservative.
00:18:56.280 In the future, my friends, I think the problem that we face would be if we get these policies from someone like Gavin Newsom moving into our national-level politics.
00:19:05.620 And Emerson College poll shows that Gavin Newsom is leading the 2028 Democratic field.
00:19:11.500 Oh, boy.
00:19:13.080 I can't say that I'm excited for what happens when someone like Gavin Newsom, who, mind you, told everybody he had to wear masks, but then walked around not wearing a mask, went to restaurants, did whatever he wanted.
00:19:22.640 Do you want that kind of leadership?
00:19:24.680 I view the Democratic Party as the party of, quote, you are too stupid to decide for yourself, so we'll do it for you and we'll deceive you.
00:19:31.400 And the Republican Party is a bunch of stodgy, suit-wearing guys who couldn't sell, you know, they couldn't sell a NASCAR ticket to a NASCAR fan.
00:19:43.580 Is that, you know, you say you could sell ice to an Eskimo or sand to a Saudi.
00:19:47.960 I like the second one better.
00:19:50.320 The saying is when you're really good at sales, you go, I could sell ice to an Eskimo.
00:19:54.520 Pointing out that the Eskimo, the Inuit, lives surrounded by ice.
00:19:59.200 Why would he buy it from you?
00:20:00.040 Because you're a smooth talker.
00:20:01.500 Or sand to a Saudi, because Saudi Arabia has sand.
00:20:04.480 Like, they don't need to buy it from you, you know?
00:20:05.980 I like that one, though, because, you know, Saudi Arabia is a specific place.
00:20:09.620 Anyway, what's the opposite of that?
00:20:11.860 Republicans couldn't sell ice cream to a kid who wants ice cream?
00:20:15.560 I don't know.
00:20:16.260 You come up with one that's alliterative and fun.
00:20:18.100 Ice to an Eskimo, sand to a Saudi.
00:20:20.240 The point is, the Republicans know that the majority of people in this country want voter ID.
00:20:25.640 And Democrats want it, independents want it, Republicans want it.
00:20:30.240 The only people who don't are Democrat politicians.
00:20:32.160 And the Republicans still will not pass the SAVE Act.
00:20:34.800 They could not sell, here we go, water to a man dying of thirst in the desert.
00:20:40.740 They couldn't do it.
00:20:42.020 In fact, I got to be honest, the guy dying in the desert of dehydration is going to be going,
00:20:45.780 please, I'll give you anything.
00:20:47.840 Like, there is literally a billionaire whose plane has crashed, and he's crawling through the sand,
00:20:53.700 desperate and dying, with money bursting from his pockets, covered in gold chains.
00:20:58.680 And there's a Republican holding a glass of water, and he goes, you can have anything, anything.
00:21:04.980 You can have my money, my clothes, my empire.
00:21:08.040 And the Republicans are like, hmm, I don't know.
00:21:13.480 And that's the point.
00:21:15.100 I can make the joke about how Republicans couldn't sell ice to water to a dehydrated dying man in the desert.
00:21:20.460 But it's actually worse than that, in that they won't do it.
00:21:23.940 That the man's literally begging them to do it, and they won't do it.
00:21:26.980 So here's what I see.
00:21:28.500 The Democrat walks up, and it's Gavin Newsom.
00:21:31.460 And he cuts a deal with the Republican on some stupid thing like some transgender kids will get sex changes
00:21:38.520 in exchange for a 3% reduction in taxes for interstate commerce or something.
00:21:45.440 And the Republican goes, ha-ha, we won.
00:21:47.580 Then the Democrat goes to the billionaire and says, give me everything you have and more, and here's the water.
00:21:53.500 And then makes the sale, cuts the deal with the billionaire, gets the money, takes the power.
00:21:58.720 See, this is what I can't stand about Republicans.
00:22:00.220 But maybe they're supposed to be the Washington Generals, the Democrats, Harlem Globetrotters, right?
00:22:05.240 My friends, California could go Republican.
00:22:10.040 And I know I'm ragging on the Republicans, but it would be beneficial at least to get some political competition.
00:22:16.200 And that being said, you know, I think Steve Hilton will do a pretty decent job.
00:22:19.960 But the challenge then becomes, for these individuals, how do you maintain control in a state that wants to give children sex changes
00:22:27.060 and wants illegal immigrants?
00:22:28.920 I don't know, man.
00:22:31.400 All I can say is good luck.
00:22:33.080 We're going to episode a little bit short today.
00:22:35.240 But, you know, it is what it is.
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00:22:40.040 Stay tuned.
00:22:40.740 We're back tonight at 8 p.m. for TimCast IRL.
00:22:42.780 And we will see you all then.
00:22:43.980 No.
00:22:44.540 ames.
00:22:44.580 Sorry.
00:22:45.460 See you.
00:22:45.800 Bye.
00:22:46.580 Bye.
00:22:47.600 Bye.
00:22:48.160 Bye.
00:22:48.600 Bye.
00:22:49.280 Bye.
00:23:10.080 Bye.
00:23:10.260 Bye.