The Culture War - Tim Pool - SECOND Civil War Game Out Online, Former CIA Says ＂It's Coming＂ And TRUMP Is To Blame

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00:00:45.320 We have a story from military.com.

00:00:48.140 An alternate history channel on Reddit is gaming out a shockingly realistic

00:00:53.640 second U.S. Civil War.

00:00:56.780 Very interesting stuff.

00:00:58.260 But let me just say this. 0.98

00:01:00.860 You may be saying, Tim, you crazy. 0.82

00:01:03.780 There's not going to be a Civil War. 0.99

00:01:04.880 That's silly.

00:01:05.560 Who would fight? 0.90

00:01:06.560 Why?

00:01:07.340 You know, I've talked to prominent individuals,

00:01:09.040 and they always say the same thing.

00:01:13.440 They always say the same thing.

00:01:14.940 I go outside, I look around, nobody's fighting.

00:01:19.260 To which I respond, do you think, in 1864, in Atlanta, some dude walked out of his house

00:01:26.680 and looked at his neighbor who was flying an American flag, a Union flag,

00:01:30.840 and they went, ooh, I'm going to fight you.

00:01:33.240 No, they went outside and said, howdy, neighbor.

00:01:36.160 The same is true today.

00:01:38.220 I don't know what happens.

00:01:39.180 But I do know that it is now in the highest levels of government.

00:01:44.720 We've got the story from the New York Times.

00:01:47.860 Unease FBI as Kash Patel ousts top officials.

00:01:53.280 Quote, the FBI has become so thoroughly compromised that it will remain a threat to the people

00:01:57.780 unless drastic measures are taken.

00:01:59.780 He wrote in his book, Government Gangsters,

00:02:02.320 asserting that the top ranks of the bureau should be eliminated.

00:02:05.680 Behind the scenes, his vision of an FBI under Trump is quietly taking shape.

00:02:09.820 Agents have been forced out.

00:02:11.000 Others have been demoted or put on leave with no explanation.

00:02:13.700 And in an effort to hunt down the sources of news leaks,

00:02:16.700 Mr. Patel is forcing employees to take polygraph tests.

00:02:21.260 Is it coming?

00:02:22.540 A civil war.

00:02:24.440 But let's talk about it.

00:02:25.720 Among the younger generation, and this is what I think matters most,

00:02:29.460 43% of Americans say a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years.

00:02:34.940 Among the younger, I'm sorry, this is general, public, posted in 2022.

00:02:39.800 However, it's actually much crazier than that among young people.

00:02:45.220 Among the younger generation, they actually think it's much more likely there will be a civil war.

00:02:51.040 UGOF has the data that shows it skews largely into the among younger people.

00:02:57.860 Let me see if I can find the quick civil war.

00:03:01.880 40% think that a civil war is likely.

00:03:04.760 32% think it's likely between red and blue states.

00:03:07.640 30% says rich and poor.

00:03:08.920 29% think people of different races.

00:03:11.000 20% think it's likely between urban versus rural.

00:03:13.980 And so this is actually an interesting poll.

00:03:19.440 I know a lot of people may be saying they don't think it's going to happen.

00:03:21.560 But the question is, why do you believe that UGOF thought it necessary to do this poll in the first place?

00:03:28.620 And why do you believe they found 43% of people think it's possible?

00:03:33.740 Because people are actually discussing it.

00:03:36.480 This was 2022.

00:03:38.980 It's a year and a half, September, after J6.

00:03:42.220 Donald Trump is now in office.

00:03:44.280 When I talk about the issue, people tell me I'm crazy.

00:03:47.420 I recommend you guys watch the episode of Triggernometry I did, where we basically had this debate.

00:03:54.120 I went into great detail.

00:03:55.820 Now, I'm not sitting here saying I think a civil war is going to happen.

00:03:58.500 I'm not sitting here saying it's guaranteed or anything like that.

00:04:00.720 I'm saying the precursors are as such that people believe it may be coming, a substantial amount.

00:04:06.180 I didn't create the idea.

00:04:07.580 I didn't coin it.

00:04:08.400 Nor do I ever actually promote that it will happen.

00:04:13.380 However, to be fair on Twitter, people don't understand nuance. 1.00

00:04:17.040 They're very stupid. 1.00

00:04:18.260 So when I say things like civil war, I'm not saying it's literally happening. 1.00

00:04:23.020 People aren't smart enough to understand that.

00:04:25.060 I'm saying these are all precursors to and indicative of.

00:04:28.520 So take a look at this.

00:04:31.880 Among Democrats, they say Democrats are more confident than other Americans in the government's ability to defeat an uprising of armed citizens.

00:04:39.280 It's fascinating.

00:04:41.240 They say that how concerned are Americans about political, racial, and religious extremism?

00:04:47.460 White supremacy, 43% are concerned.

00:04:50.280 Isn't that very concerned? 0.77

00:04:51.240 Isn't that crazy?

00:04:52.180 That's the media, largely targeting the older demographic.

00:04:55.460 So Bloomberg, I think, I don't know if I have them breaking it down.

00:05:00.120 They say, the survey conducted among 1,500 U.S. adults found two-thirds of Americans believe political divisions have gotten worse since 2021.

00:05:08.260 In comparison, only 8% say it's grown less divided.

00:05:11.740 Here's why I bring this up.

00:05:13.560 And the fact that young people are more likely.

00:05:16.600 Let me see if we have this.

00:05:17.280 Let's see, the age breakdowns.

00:05:22.100 47% of Americans under 30, according to you, Governor the Economist, said a civil war in the next decade is at least somewhat likely.

00:05:30.320 47%.

00:05:30.800 All right.

00:05:32.260 Here's over at military.com, talking about the alternate history, people gaming out a shockingly realistic civil war.

00:05:41.740 Now, what I want to say, which is hilarious about this, I live here.

00:05:44.540 This map they're showing on the screen, for those that are just watching, shows Harper's Ferry.

00:05:49.660 And it says, the second battle of Harper's Ferry, April 15, 2025, to 27 of April, 2025.

00:05:55.700 Yeah.

00:05:56.320 It didn't happen.

00:05:57.300 We're well past that.

00:05:58.000 I don't think this stuff is actually realistic, especially considering the article was written after, I suppose, the battle already took place.

00:06:05.460 But I will say this.

00:06:07.860 It's fascinating to look at a map where people are wondering what would happen to Harper's Ferry, because I use these bridges like every day.

00:06:15.560 Let me take a look at where we're at.

00:06:18.060 So here's Harper's.

00:06:18.720 This is the Horn, Harper's Ferry.

00:06:21.240 Harper's Ferry is a postal jurisdiction and actually extends well down into the southern area, into these mountains.

00:06:28.000 Blue Ridge Mountains.

00:06:29.220 And though each of these areas are unincorporated and have their own names, it's the postal zone is still Harper's Ferry.

00:06:34.660 And then we have, this is the walking bridge and train.

00:06:38.100 And you have, where are the bridges?

00:06:40.300 Okay, so this is a bridge right here.

00:06:41.640 This is a bridge right here.

00:06:42.720 These are the bridges we use to get into.

00:06:44.220 So when I talk about how close we are, our old studio is actually just over here.

00:06:48.580 I said we're very close to Loudoun County.

00:06:50.020 This is Loudoun County right here.

00:06:51.120 Military.com says,

00:06:54.340 Alternate history writing looks at what-if scenarios.

00:06:57.960 What if the Soviet Union won the Cold War?

00:06:59.260 What if the Roman Empire never fell?

00:07:01.040 It's not just interesting escapism.

00:07:03.520 It also allows readers to look critically at the world they really live in and reflect on current events.

00:07:08.260 Popular alternate history stories have even become major television shows or movies.

00:07:11.880 Philip K. Dick's 1962 novel, The Man in the High Castle, set in an alternate timeline where an assassin killed Roosevelt and Germany and Japan won World War II.

00:07:20.860 The book was later adapted into an Amazon Prime series.

00:07:24.140 I do think it's largely silly, though, The Man in the High Castle, because I don't think the U.S. would ever get invaded and taken over nor forced to have a Nazi ideology.

00:07:32.340 To be fair, though, Nazism was prominent in the United States before World War II.

00:07:36.340 On Reddit's alt-history subreddit, users post scenarios asking what if the Soviet Union intervened in Iran, or what if the U.S. plan for the Middle East was implemented after World War I?

00:07:48.560 The usual posts garner a handful of likes or comments, but a new alternate history timeline is making the rounds with interactions in the thousands.

00:07:55.020 This new timeline from Redditor George Squershington looks at an alternate world where someone really did hack the 2024 election, both sides contested the results, and America fell into a dark civil war.

00:08:11.380 Now, I've talked about this before, this alternate timeline.

00:08:15.100 What I want to say is they're entering an alternate path for us.

00:08:18.880 What I think is interesting about it and why it's worth looking at, the posts that they fabricate—I say fabricate, but the posts that they've created artistically to represent the real world actually look like real world posts.

00:08:32.860 What I mean is when you see someone saying, we've created a path for an alternate timeline where there's a civil war, they mention in themilitary.com that they're looking critically.

00:08:44.640 I'll see you next time.

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00:09:29.400 Please play responsibly.

00:09:31.060 At How It May Play Out, you'll see a story that says something like,

00:09:36.640 far-life extremists, you know, open fire on, you know, right-wing group or something like that.

00:09:42.780 And when you look at it, you're like, wow, that's crazy.

00:09:45.620 That's what starts a civil war.

00:09:46.760 Then you take a look at our own actual news, and it's like far-leftists open fire on Tesla vehicles and attack private owners.

00:09:53.540 And you start to understand, oh, that it's actually, it is actually happening, this escalation and before our eyes.

00:10:04.760 Now, again, that doesn't mean the predictions of these people are correct in that it would lead to a civil war.

00:10:09.840 The point is, we are looking right now, a man in Colorado with Molotov cocktails set fire to several individuals who are pro-Israel.

00:10:22.980 Or I don't even know if that's fair to say.

00:10:24.220 They were raising awareness for the hostages, the Israeli hostages.

00:10:28.240 And this man was screaming, free Palestine, screaming that he had to do something. 0.57

00:10:31.200 We see actions like that.

00:10:34.660 The man who went into D.C. screaming, free Palestine, and gunned down two young embassy staffers, Israeli embassy staffers.

00:10:41.260 We saw the Tesla attacks.

00:10:43.620 In an alternate timeline, it is reasonable.

00:10:46.960 If someone were to write up a story about how a war broke out or a civil war broke out,

00:10:52.320 these things are realistically believed to be components of that escalation.

00:10:56.820 The issue now is, in the fictional reality that's being drafted about a second world war,

00:11:03.680 many people, it's easy to believe, oh yeah, like someone, you know, blew up a car or whatever.

00:11:08.680 Of course that makes sense in this story you've written.

00:11:11.720 Then you ask about the real world.

00:11:14.500 What about the people who are unloading rifles into Tesla dealerships?

00:11:18.720 That happened.

00:11:19.800 And they say, oh, that's isolated.

00:11:21.900 It's not going to go anywhere.

00:11:22.900 Why?

00:11:23.980 Why the difference?

00:11:24.840 Optimism bias and normalcy bias.

00:11:27.980 They may be correct.

00:11:29.660 We don't know.

00:11:30.880 There's been terror before.

00:11:32.020 The weather underground did a lot of bombings.

00:11:34.180 No civil war happened.

00:11:35.920 The point is, because of optimism and normalcy bias, people want to reject the possibility outright.

00:11:43.080 Instead of saying it's probably low, but these are the precursors.

00:11:47.800 Military.com says,

00:11:49.180 George Squarshington, asked only to be identified by his username because of harassment, calls a scenario, how would Reddit react to a modern civil war in the U.S.?

00:12:01.000 The story plays out in fictional screenshots from social media, Wikipedia, YouTube, and more, all posted to the Reddit channel.

00:12:07.180 Quote,

00:12:07.400 I saw where people were claiming that the election was stolen, like even my mom and dad talk about it sometimes, saying the 2024 election might have been hacked.

00:12:17.300 George Squarshington told military.com.

00:12:19.740 And I just started to think, what would happen if it were true?

00:12:22.440 Or at least if an intelligence agency or people in the military thought it was true, and the story granted that.

00:12:28.480 Well, let me pull it up for you guys.

00:12:33.300 It's a small subreddit.

00:12:34.980 But, here we go.

00:12:37.960 This is r slash verify 2024.

00:12:42.660 This is a subreddit.

00:12:43.680 Only 7,000 members.

00:12:45.440 Okay?

00:12:46.880 But it's a top 9% ranked by size.

00:12:51.900 Meaning, it may have a very small amount of members, but it gets a lot of activity for how small it is. 0.97

00:12:57.100 These people are insane.

00:12:59.280 They genuinely believe the 2024 election was stolen.

00:13:03.080 They say, from last week, New Georgia voter website glitch briefly exposes personal data.

00:13:09.520 Big report on 2024 election interference in conjunction with Election Truth Alliance.

00:13:13.800 These aren't the only ones.

00:13:14.920 It's just one dedicated subreddit.

00:13:16.940 Rosie O'Donnell has been making videos that are insane and make no sense because she genuinely believes this stuff. 0.60

00:13:23.000 And she's prominent.

00:13:24.120 She fled the country.

00:13:25.540 She had a video where she was like, explain to me how, for the first time, the Republican won every swing state.

00:13:30.820 Not true.

00:13:31.860 Just plum not true.

00:13:34.400 Quote.

00:13:34.760 I'm sorry.

00:13:37.700 So I did read all this already.

00:13:38.980 He said, what would happen if it were true, at least?

00:13:40.440 Readers learned about new developments in their war through simulated internet reactions to the war's events.

00:13:46.800 George Squashington, along with his supporters in a special Discord channel, game out scenarios, and the story continues to evolve.

00:13:52.620 Then he and some of the collaborators create detailed screenshots of what it would look like as the internet responded to the news.

00:13:59.080 In the story, the first contested election results lead to recounts in key states.

00:14:03.080 Tipping the election from Donald Trump to Kamala Harris.

00:14:05.600 Protesters from both sides clash violently.

00:14:08.640 Fires break out in Trump Tower.

00:14:10.360 Harris is inaugurated in a bunker.

00:14:12.220 And Trump barricades himself at Mar-a-Lago.

00:14:14.680 None of that happened. 0.95

00:14:15.940 It is all a silly story.

00:14:18.240 But let me try this. 0.79

00:14:19.300 What about the people that are claiming these silly stories are actually real?

00:14:23.440 June 1st, from El Paez, which is Spanish language news, Barbara F. Walter, civil conflict expert, quote,

00:14:32.920 I see Trump provoking a foreign war to force a third term.

00:14:37.340 I don't because I'm not insane.

00:14:40.760 Now, all these people, there's many people who believe it's not possible for the U.S. to break into civil war.

00:14:47.080 Once again, they say silly things like, I go outside and nobody's fighting.

00:14:50.420 They say things like, who would the factions be?

00:14:52.920 There's no north and south.

00:14:54.060 Red states are split up all over the place.

00:14:56.320 And I just, I ask them, please, for the love of all that is holy, read about any other civil war.

00:15:03.360 Basically, every single civil war that's ever happened except the United States

00:15:06.820 was various jurisdictions falling to ideological groups.

00:15:12.380 The Syrian civil war had something like 12 different factions fighting the government.

00:15:17.720 They slowly got defeated and then started to unify under, was it al-Nursra and ISIS,

00:15:23.700 then eventually just ISIS, a unified group, the Islamic caliphate at war with the Assad regime.

00:15:31.380 It doesn't have to be red versus blue.

00:15:34.720 In the United States civil war, in fact, you had seven states secede from the end before Lincoln was

00:15:40.500 even inaugurated. And then they formed their own confederacy.

00:15:44.740 It was stated that Texas only joined out of necessity because of the proximity.

00:15:49.160 Certainly, they were a slave state, but they were also just like, 0.94

00:15:51.500 we can't be part of a union with no access to the union.

00:15:55.260 So for the most part, they just said, I guess we're out.

00:15:58.860 Then Lincoln attacked.

00:16:00.460 To be fair, the battle for something happened.

00:16:03.180 People were pissed. Nobody died from the conflict.

00:16:05.580 One person died in an accident.

00:16:06.420 Then you had the Battle of Bull Run.

00:16:08.900 The union was routed and then Lincoln rallied the North and then invaded the South.

00:16:14.160 That's literally how it started.

00:16:18.180 After this, several states then flipped.

00:16:21.180 They were two-thirds pro-union, not in favor of the Confederacy,

00:16:25.480 but after the Lincoln rallying of troops and the invasion of the South,

00:16:29.460 several states then said, we're breaking from this.

00:16:31.460 The point I'm making is, no one really understands how these things can escalate to this point.

00:16:37.280 But I do have questions about where we go from here.

00:16:39.840 If Barbara F. Walter is correct, or more importantly, I doubt she is.

00:16:43.940 But if she feels this way, and many other people do, then I have some questions.

00:16:51.820 What happens if Trump does win another term?

00:16:55.940 What happens when, with a moderate coalition on the right, Republicans win 2026 and 2028,

00:17:04.200 and Democrats get locked out of power?

00:17:06.280 They're not going to tolerate minority rule. 1.00

00:17:10.040 I shouldn't say minority.

00:17:10.780 They're not going to tolerate being in the minority is what I mean to say.

00:17:14.560 Take a look at this from El Piaz. 0.62

00:17:16.420 Barbara F. Walter, 60, has spent her entire career studying what drives countries to civil war

00:17:20.020 and how to avoid such conflict.

00:17:22.500 Born in Bronxville, New York.

00:17:23.840 She's a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.

00:17:27.800 During Trump's first term.

00:17:29.400 Ugh, I need coffee.

00:17:30.960 Utility bill, $145.

00:17:33.520 Okay, let's check the news for traffic.

00:17:35.340 Gas, $95.

00:17:36.880 Sorry, your account has insufficient funds.

00:17:39.720 Farber Debt Solutions, licensed insolvency trustees.

00:17:43.020 Get the truth about debt.

00:17:44.620 Particularly in the wake of the pandemic and the assault on the Capitol,

00:17:47.660 she began to have an uneasy feeling about the signs of instability.

00:17:50.200 She had seen places like Yugoslavia, Syria, and Iraq were beginning to appear in her own neck of the woods.

00:17:57.320 In 2023, the publication of her book, How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them,

00:18:01.940 caused a considerable intellectual impact in the United States.

00:18:04.920 In the book, which includes interviews with civil war survivors

00:18:07.860 and presents all the precedents to internal conflict with scientific rigor.

00:18:12.700 Before issuing a diagnosis,

00:18:14.440 she argues that her country meets the two requirements

00:18:16.840 that usually occur before a fratricidal conflict.

00:18:22.120 Sure.

00:18:23.340 The emergence of two factions,

00:18:25.680 organized on either side of the lines,

00:18:27.160 marked by race, religion, or identity.

00:18:28.520 And the fact that the U.S. has fallen for the first time

00:18:31.280 since its founding into the group of what the Center for Systemic Peace calls

00:18:35.420 anocracies.

00:18:37.240 These regimes fall somewhere in the gray area between full democracies and pure autocracies.

00:18:41.640 Two systems that, for opposite reasons, never slide into civil war.

00:18:46.980 This is a scale on which the former are rated plus 10,

00:18:50.620 and the latter minus 10.

00:18:52.040 In between are the anocracies,

00:18:53.640 countries that rank between minus 5 and plus 5.

00:18:55.340 So here's what I want to say before we read on for more of this.

00:18:59.260 The reason why I brought up the YouGov data

00:19:02.040 about how younger people are more likely to believe

00:19:05.840 that there is a civil war coming.

00:19:07.740 The issue is that hyperpolarization among the youth

00:19:10.740 is more pronounced than the older generations.

00:19:13.240 With all of these generations voting right now,

00:19:16.520 you will get an older generation voting for unity

00:19:19.600 and saying we don't think civil war is coming,

00:19:21.680 and a younger generation voting in a hyperpolarized manner.

00:19:25.340 In fact, our own market research here at TimCast suggests

00:19:27.780 that if we want to attract younger viewers,

00:19:29.520 we have to be extremely aggressive on what we want this country to be doing

00:19:33.220 to the enemy factions, to the opposing political faction.

00:19:36.200 Kind of creepy.

00:19:38.560 Younger people believe a civil war is coming,

00:19:40.960 and they are hyperpolarized.

00:19:43.440 Older people don't believe it's coming, and they are less. 1.00

00:19:46.300 So let's do the math.

00:19:47.540 If you're 65, hanging out with 65-year-olds, 0.99

00:19:50.400 you know some people in your family are liberal and conservative,

00:19:53.260 and you mostly get along.

00:19:55.000 And that's it.

00:19:56.280 But if you're 25,

00:19:57.740 you probably don't hang out with any people of the opposing political faction,

00:20:01.120 and all you see is violence on social media.

00:20:04.500 So what happens?

00:20:06.160 These people are prepared for something to escalate.

00:20:09.780 They believe it will.

00:20:10.500 When the older generation dies, 0.95

00:20:13.760 there will be,

00:20:15.040 let's just say,

00:20:16.180 let's break it down into 50-plus and 50-below.

00:20:20.120 18 to 50.

00:20:21.320 They are more likely to believe a civil war is coming,

00:20:23.580 and they're more hyperpolarized.

00:20:25.060 50-plus are not.

00:20:26.360 The 50-plus die, 1.00

00:20:27.740 then you have a younger generation,

00:20:29.480 likely to,

00:20:30.040 then every single person in this country is going to be in the camp of,

00:20:33.480 we are heading towards some type of civil conflict.

00:20:35.780 Now, I've asked many people about this,

00:20:39.260 and it's fascinating that they can only conclude one of two things.

00:20:44.640 And that is,

00:20:46.100 if you're on the right,

00:20:48.000 I would ask this.

00:20:49.260 Do you believe that Democrats are unscrupulous?

00:20:52.500 Of course.

00:20:53.400 Okay.

00:20:53.760 Do you think that they are willing to violate the Constitution to steal power?

00:20:57.240 Of course, they did.

00:20:58.260 They arrested Trump's lawyers.

00:20:59.240 Okay.

00:20:59.720 So if you're on the right,

00:21:00.700 you recognize the left is violating the law,

00:21:04.520 stealing elections and doing all of these things.

00:21:07.020 Yes.

00:21:07.300 Okay.

00:21:08.060 Do you think Trump will fight back?

00:21:11.180 Well, then you get mixed answers.

00:21:12.620 Some say yes, some say no.

00:21:14.320 All right.

00:21:15.060 And that's where we end up with the two potentialities.

00:21:18.640 Either you get a communist revolution and full Democrat takeover,

00:21:22.300 or Donald Trump fights back.

00:21:26.860 Now we have another question.

00:21:28.840 Do you believe the Democrats will resist?

00:21:32.760 Invariably, people say, of course they will.

00:21:34.120 The far left is violent all the time.

00:21:35.500 Okay.

00:21:36.040 So some kind of civil conflict.

00:21:38.500 The question then is, it's very simple.

00:21:41.460 Both the left and the right.

00:21:43.220 I have someone on the left.

00:21:44.540 I was talking to Adam Friedland about this.

00:21:46.060 I don't know how they edit their show,

00:21:48.140 but he was saying civil war can't happen.

00:21:49.760 Stuff happens all the time.

00:21:50.360 And I said, let me ask you a question.

00:21:51.800 Do you think Trump is violating the law?

00:21:53.200 He says yes.

00:21:53.540 Do you think he's acting unconstitutionally?

00:21:54.800 Yes.

00:21:55.160 Do you think he is doing things that are unprecedented?

00:21:57.080 Yes.

00:21:57.680 Do you think anyone's going to stop him?

00:21:59.100 No.

00:21:59.520 Okay.

00:22:00.080 So you think there will be a fascist revolution in this country?

00:22:02.900 You are either arguing on the left or the right that there will be a fascist revolution,

00:22:09.260 a communist revolution, or a civil war.

00:22:12.600 I don't see how anyone could be arguing for something else.

00:22:17.680 No, no.

00:22:18.420 We're going to have this, you know, hyper-polarized nation where both sides are committing,

00:22:24.720 are violating the constitution against each other, but it never breaks out in a fighting.

00:22:29.020 Doesn't that just sound silly? 0.99

00:22:29.820 Like, Democrats are going to be like, they're all fascists. 0.97

00:22:32.860 They're arresting people illegally and doing whatever they want, but we don't care. 0.96

00:22:36.280 But then we're going to go arrest people illegally.

00:22:38.080 No, that just sounds like administrative civil war, which is what we're in already.

00:22:43.140 Now, I certainly think, I think many of you would agree, that on the right, Republicans,

00:22:50.260 Trump, Cash are enforcing the law, upholding our constitution, and fighting corruption.

00:22:57.600 I think it's a fact.

00:22:59.680 I think when you look at the data, you can see that it's a fact.

00:23:03.540 On the left, it's inverted.

00:23:05.040 They think Cash is corrupt.

00:23:06.260 He's targeting his political opponents because, well, they don't read the news.

00:23:10.020 So how does this end up?

00:23:12.840 Where does this country end up going if this is the case?

00:23:16.540 There's a few potentials, I guess.

00:23:18.140 There's a possibility.

00:23:19.540 All the fighting simmers down.

00:23:21.380 Everybody's bored.

00:23:22.640 Nobody cares about politics anymore.

00:23:23.860 I don't think so.

00:23:27.300 Because of the Democrats' willingness to say, I don't know, like publish the private

00:23:30.240 phone records of a journalist like Adam Schiff did, or to arrest Trump's lawyers like we

00:23:35.100 saw in Wisconsin and Georgia, to falsely accuse Trump of felonies, to falsely accuse a sitting

00:23:41.720 president of being a traitor to his own nation and working for the Russian government.

00:23:46.720 I don't see why this deescalates.

00:23:47.860 Is Trump just going to be like, no, no, no, we're completely okay that they did all that

00:23:52.920 stuff?

00:23:53.920 Yeah, I don't think so.

00:23:56.220 Certainly it's possible that Trump just says no.

00:23:59.500 And then Democrats simply just go like, well, we're not going to be communists anymore and

00:24:02.220 we're not going to violate the law and everyone just calms down.

00:24:05.080 But I don't think anybody sees it as a realistic probability.

00:24:08.720 We have this from El Piaz.

00:24:12.320 They ask Barbara F. Walters, did you enjoy the movie Civil War?

00:24:15.800 Oh boy.

00:24:17.180 She says, you know, they invited me to the premiere in New York and I didn't go because

00:24:20.020 I didn't want to be seen as legitimizing the movie.

00:24:22.220 I would have bet that it was going to be a very terrible movie, but I watched it and

00:24:25.080 thought they did a very, very good job of living against Americans, the sense of what 0.94

00:24:28.100 a civil war would feel like.

00:24:29.120 No, they didn't.

00:24:30.080 Kind of.

00:24:31.260 The movie didn't do any justice to the concept of civil war.

00:24:34.980 It was a bunch of journalists who were on a vulture romp gloating over the death of

00:24:40.800 other people and it was just, there were some instances where you were like, that's

00:24:45.380 what it might feel like.

00:24:46.260 Some.

00:24:47.960 But really, no.

00:24:49.680 Really, I think the movie's goal was to show you the depravity of modern journalists and

00:24:53.760 show you how evil people are.

00:24:55.480 I will tell you this.

00:24:56.740 In the journalism industry, I've largely met 80% evil.

00:25:01.940 I mean it.

00:25:02.740 I genuinely mean it.

00:25:04.080 On the ground covering conflict and crisis, mostly evil people.

00:25:07.260 They call them vultures.

00:25:09.780 That's why.

00:25:10.840 Now, I know that a regular vulture ain't evil, just it eats carrion, right?

00:25:14.300 But these journalists choosing to go in and seeking to inflame and laugh and enjoying

00:25:20.320 death, that's depravity.

00:25:23.860 The question.

00:25:25.120 It wouldn't look like the first one, North versus South.

00:25:27.380 Barbara F. 0.79

00:25:27.780 Walter says, there wouldn't be soldiers in tanks.

00:25:30.960 I mean that came at the end of the film.

00:25:32.360 But that middle section of the movie, when they're traveling to D.C. and they're stopping,

00:25:37.480 for example, at a gas station, that's exactly what I thought of, to be honest.

00:25:40.740 And I see these men strung up.

00:25:42.700 That's what a 21st century war looks like.

00:25:45.080 It's anarchy.

00:25:46.880 It's anarchy that allows these subplots and subfights to happen.

00:25:50.220 So you may have a rebel group fighting the government, but then you might have energy at

00:25:54.200 the local level, where if your neighbor wants a piece of your farm, they just walk into 0.59

00:25:57.780 your house and kill you. 0.99

00:25:58.900 And Americans don't realize that a civil war could unleash a whole series of micro events. 0.99

00:26:03.880 They just want to have hope that things work out.

00:26:07.120 Indeed.

00:26:08.220 There has been two years since you've published the book.

00:26:10.100 What's changed?

00:26:11.420 Barbara F. 0.79

00:26:11.820 Walter says, a lot has happened.

00:26:13.640 But the conditions I describe in the book remain the same or worse.

00:26:16.960 We are fully ensconced in an inocracy.

00:26:19.320 With Trump's return, there's been a drastic decline in the quality of the democratic system.

00:26:23.160 It's happening quickly.

00:26:24.420 And everything indicates the president wants to weaken it further.

00:26:27.560 If he can, he will eliminate the checks and balances on the executive branch.

00:26:31.780 I can imagine a scenario in which he's successful in creating a dictatorship.

00:26:36.100 Interesting.

00:26:36.760 Interesting.

00:26:37.300 OK, I will give Barbara F.

00:26:39.220 Walter this one.

00:26:41.120 I think functionally she's correct.

00:26:43.860 The only problem is, like her and Stephen Marsh, they ignore the fact that Democrats were

00:26:48.180 doing all these things.

00:26:49.180 It's like their brains shut off when Democrats do things. 0.98

00:26:52.900 Me.

00:26:53.120 I don't care for either bubble individually.

00:26:57.300 I can tell you exactly.

00:26:59.300 Donald Trump and the gutting of USAID and these institutions was detrimental to the global

00:27:05.060 liberal economic order and the way they view democracy.

00:27:08.840 They view democracy as powerful, deep-stated, bureaucratic institutions doing whatever they

00:27:13.920 want.

00:27:15.120 So when they see Trump gutting this stuff, they say he's ripping our institutions to shreds.

00:27:19.720 But seen therein lies the conundrum.

00:27:23.120 I can tell you outright, Donald Trump shuttering of these agencies can escalate the tensions.

00:27:30.060 Donald Trump and Cash Patel and Bongino and Pam Bondi going after Democrats can push us to

00:27:36.820 civil war, indeed.

00:27:38.460 But I think it is right to hold these people accountable for what they've already done.

00:27:42.960 On the left, they seem to completely ignore the fact that Democrats falsely charged Donald

00:27:49.000 Trump with felonies, falsely accused him of rape, falsely accused Brett Kavanaugh of gang

00:27:53.680 rape, falsely accused Trump of civil fraud, raided his home, falsely arrested his lawyers

00:28:00.760 violating the Constitution.

00:28:02.280 You can't arrest people's lawyers.

00:28:04.180 Like, none of that ever happened.

00:28:07.080 Remarkable.

00:28:09.500 She's asked, when did the U.S. join the Anacratic Club?

00:28:13.720 Now, what I want to add is many people may say, well, why are you talking about this, Tim?

00:28:16.140 And Barbara F. Walter did work for the CIA and did track when other countries would fall. 0.84

00:28:21.420 So I do think, functionally, she brings up interesting points.

00:28:24.440 I just think she's biased and has ignored the fact that Democrats are the ones who started 0.98

00:28:28.100 all the conflict.

00:28:30.060 She said, in December of 2022, we were at a plus five.

00:28:33.040 It was the first time we hit it in history of the United States.

00:28:35.740 This lasted until early 21, when it became clear that Trump would actually leave the presidency

00:28:40.300 peacefully and that his successor, Biden, wouldn't try to exploit the undemocratic features 1.00

00:28:45.020 in the U.S., laughably stupid. 1.00

00:28:48.900 We rose to a plus eight. 1.00

00:28:50.540 I'd say we're now at a plus three.

00:28:52.640 The risk of civil war isn't just if you're in this Anacracy zone, which we now are, but 0.98

00:28:57.880 it's exacerbated if you get there very rapidly.

00:29:00.880 If you have a two-point or more change in the score, we've had at least a five-point

00:29:04.720 change in a matter of months.

00:29:06.180 So this is extraordinarily rapid, which tends to be quite destabilizing.

00:29:11.020 She says, the risk isn't less, it's different.

00:29:12.780 The way civil wars break out, they're usually started by the group that's losing power or

00:29:16.960 is out of power.

00:29:18.240 So if Biden or Harris had won, then this group would be Trump supporters on the far right.

00:29:22.440 The MAGA movement is heavily driven by white Christians.

00:29:24.900 The declining population in the United States are whites.

00:29:27.660 And so had Biden won historically, this would be the group that you would see mobilized.

00:29:30.980 But they won, right?

00:29:31.640 If Trump is successful in fixing elections, if he's able to suppress the vote, and if he's

00:29:36.780 able to purge the voting rolls, it becomes very hard for Democrats to win again.

00:29:40.500 This would be the Viktor Orban model.

00:29:42.960 If we have elections, but Trump always wins or the Republicans always win, then you'll probably

00:29:46.580 have more than half the American population essentially excluded from government.

00:29:49.960 They become the group out of power.

00:29:51.720 And I think they would eventually begin to mobilize to demand reform.

00:29:54.200 But if it became clear that they were never going to get back into power through nonviolent

00:29:58.440 means, I could see extreme elements emerge within the Democratic Party.

00:30:03.760 Really?

00:30:04.780 Only then, huh?

00:30:07.620 Which political faction has got a voter base going around that's anti-Israel, anti-Zionist?

00:30:13.700 Don't get me wrong.

00:30:15.020 The right certainly has it.

00:30:16.400 But I can tell you this.

00:30:18.180 Anti-Zionist conservatives or right-wing individuals, however you want to call it, said don't vote

00:30:22.160 Trump.

00:30:22.420 Well, famously, Nick Fuentes told people not to vote for Trump.

00:30:26.360 On the Democrat side, the anti-Zionist progressives told all their followers to vote for Joe Biden.

00:30:32.260 We here at TimCast had people super chatting on TimCast IRL saying they would vote for Joe

00:30:37.660 Biden because Joe Biden was more anti-Israel than Trump.

00:30:41.080 That's what they cared about.

00:30:43.120 So you mean the Democratic Party, these progressives who voted for Joe Biden and advocated for the

00:30:47.620 Democratic Party, who were shooting up Tesla locations, firebombing Tesla vehicles.

00:30:51.640 Who have protested violently for years in black bloc for a variety of issues.

00:30:59.980 That's not within the Democratic Party.

00:31:01.380 This is the insane world that these people live in.

00:31:05.020 Now that the popular vote went to Trump, Trump has the popular mandate, I would not be surprised

00:31:10.180 to see the far left escalate to that degree.

00:31:13.360 But I'm going to wrap it up there, my friends.

00:31:14.740 I'll grab a couple of rumble rants on the way out.

00:31:16.320 Smash the like button.

00:31:17.720 Share the show with everyone you know.

00:31:19.880 Thank you all for hanging out.

00:31:20.780 I do humbly request you guys share this video if you can.

00:31:23.820 You can follow me on X on Instagram at TimCast.

00:31:26.500 Thank you all so much for hanging out.

00:31:27.920 Do have about a minute left.

00:31:28.960 So we will grab some of your ramps before we send you on a raid to our friend Russell Brand.

00:31:35.180 Wolfblossom Farm says, Bigfoot is real.

00:31:37.400 Never stop believing.

00:31:38.840 We saw that Bigfoot video last week and it looked like a guy in a suit.

00:31:41.660 Sorry.

00:31:43.540 All right.

00:31:44.320 What have we here?

00:31:45.320 Superimmersive bro says, conduct Chris.

00:31:46.500 The bandwidth sucks almost all the time and we have to restart the video multiple times.

00:31:49.200 Never happens on Kick, X, or YouTube.

00:31:51.560 I'm forced to YouTube for my rumble lineup.

00:31:55.120 Well, I'll talk to him.

00:31:57.640 Pinochet says, in the second U.S. Civil War, the Harvard Shield should serve as an identifier of a legitimate military target.

00:32:03.620 Yikes, man.

00:32:04.760 Yikes.

00:32:06.120 My friends, thank you all so much for hanging out.

00:32:09.420 I'm going to gear up that rumble raid for our friend Russell Brand.

00:32:12.980 You know, sometimes I check and it's like, you know, they're not live.

00:32:16.360 But usually Russell's gearing up.

00:32:19.200 Okay, I don't know if Russell is going live right now.

00:32:22.140 So I don't know who is set to go live.

00:32:24.360 See, that's what I said.

00:32:25.520 That's what I said.

00:32:26.420 Sometimes that happens.

00:32:27.920 So usually we just check.

00:32:29.200 We've got a pretty standard lineup.

00:32:31.720 But I'm not sure if we have anybody else.

00:32:35.240 I think we have Charlie Kirk, Stephen Crowder.

00:32:39.660 I don't know who's going to be live.

00:32:41.180 So I don't know who else to send you to.

00:32:43.680 So I guess we'll just check Russell one more time before we get out of here.

00:32:50.460 And he has not appeared to be going live and doesn't look like we've got any word.

00:32:56.000 So I guess we'll wrap it up there.

00:32:58.400 Let's give a raid to our friend Charlie Kirk.

00:33:02.140 I don't know if he's going to be staying live.

00:33:05.320 Let's see.

00:33:05.820 Where's he currently at?

00:33:07.120 Is he about to go live?

00:33:08.120 I think he's live now.

00:33:11.320 We'll send a raid Charlie's way.

00:33:12.820 Charlie's a good dude.

00:33:13.580 He's a friend of the show.

00:33:14.400 We're fans.

00:33:15.680 Don't want to leave you guys hanging.

00:33:17.220 So let's get it.

00:33:18.300 Thank you all so much for hanging out.

00:33:19.660 Smash that like button.

00:33:20.480 And we'll see you all in the next segment.

00:33:38.120 Hi, I'm Chris Gethard, and I'm very excited to tell you about Beautiful Anonymous, a podcast

00:33:42.560 where I talk to random people on the phone.

00:33:44.960 I tweet out a phone number.

00:33:46.180 Thousands of people try to call.

00:33:47.600 We talk to one of them.

00:33:48.460 They stay anonymous.

00:33:49.460 I can't hang up.

00:33:50.420 That's all the rules.

00:33:51.400 I never know what's going to happen.

00:33:53.000 We get serious ones.

00:33:54.420 I've talked with meth dealers on their way to prison.

00:33:56.420 I've talked to people who survived mass shootings.

00:33:58.640 Crazy funny ones.

00:33:59.640 I talked to a guy with a goose laugh.

00:34:01.020 Somebody who dresses up as a pirate on the weekends.

00:34:03.480 I never know what's going to happen.

00:34:04.960 It's a great show.

00:34:06.200 Subscribe today.

00:34:07.260 Beautiful Anonymous.

00:34:08.520 And welcome.

00:34:09.440 We're getting started.

00:34:10.040 Bye.

00:34:11.040 Thanks for listening.

00:34:11.180 Bye.

00:34:11.420 Bye.

00:34:11.620 Bye.

00:34:12.420 Bye.

00:34:13.180 Bye.

00:34:15.300 Bye.

00:34:25.480 Bye.

00:34:27.980 Bye.

00:34:30.640 Bye.

00:34:34.560 Bye.

00:34:36.120 Bye.

00:34:37.120 Bye.

00:34:37.500 Bye.

00:34:37.860 Bye.

00:34:38.020 Bye.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - June 02, 2025

SECOND Civil War Game Out Online, Former CIA Says ＂It's Coming＂ And TRUMP Is To Blame

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