The Glenn Beck Program - Best of The Program ｜ Guests： Sohrab Ahmari & David Steinberg

00:00:00.000 all right we've got some great stuff on today's podcast breaking news on ilan omar and the

00:00:07.480 scandal that apparently no one wants to pay attention to we have it now on tape it's taken

00:00:13.940 us months to get it translated we have the author of the story it's an exclusive story only on

00:00:20.620 theblaze.com it is about vote buying in minnesota in the somali community it's dead to rights we

00:00:29.680 have that story for you also we have the op-ed editor of the new york post talking about not

00:00:36.660 only the story of hunter biden and now all of the documents that have come out and look like it

00:00:42.680 proves everything we said in our specials uh on hydra to be true we uh we have that story for you

00:00:51.620 but also we have the story of the um pushback from twitter and facebook and we have the poll numbers

00:01:01.240 and uh stew and uh stew and steve dace kind of go at it head to head uh and you also probably want to

00:01:07.960 stick around uh and don't want to miss glenn's story about uh and if you're an nfl fan you'll know this

00:01:14.200 name patrick mahoney the quarterback of the kansas city chiefs uh you'll really appreciate i thought

00:01:20.020 that was his name i don't know who he was it was an embarrassing moment you're not gonna want to

00:01:24.880 miss that one all on today's podcast don't forget by the way go to blaze tv.com slash glenn uh you

00:01:31.060 can get the code save our election save our election we'll save you 20 bucks you get the glenn special

00:01:37.620 yesterday on hijacking the election also studios america lots of other great stuff no late no baloney

00:01:43.420 but some mahoney some mahoney patrick mahoney playsteve.com slash glenn save our elections

00:01:51.160 an honest effort it really was on my part save 20 bucks here's the podcast

00:01:54.780 you're listening to the best of the glenn beck program

00:02:05.580 we have david steinberg uh on with us he's the investigative reporter who has

00:02:13.220 dedicated the last few years of his life uh to ilan omar and the now story that has just been

00:02:20.480 posted uh at uh the blaze.com uh about the minnesota democratic democratic candidate that is alleging

00:02:29.960 outright vote buying uh by minnesota democrats and she says it's worse than somalia uh and she is

00:02:38.380 from somalia uh welcome to the program david how are you glad thanks for having me on you bet thank

00:02:44.760 you for your your hard work and your great story on on the blaze uh david tell me tell tell me the

00:02:51.000 story again in a nutshell i just went over it but tell me your version of the story here on what happened

00:02:55.360 well the big thing going on here is that this isn't an edited this isn't a sting operation

00:03:03.080 this woman is a democrat she was running for city council in minnesota minneapolis and again this

00:03:11.120 is the city council which recently voted to defund the police uh she she is a defund the police

00:03:17.400 supporter so this is a very progressive left-wing democrat she's running for that seat on july 6th

00:03:25.140 she gets on to facebook live she speaks only in somali she's very upset she talks for 15 minutes

00:03:32.080 she says i'm announcing that i'm no longer going to go door-to-door campaigning because she's so

00:03:38.780 upset that everybody she meets says my vote is 200 bucks and apparently they're saying this because

00:03:47.900 they were promised this by somebody else so in this video she says you know what if someone promised

00:03:53.820 you 200 bucks don't vote for me just go get your 200 bucks and vote for them i don't want any part of

00:04:00.260 this and then she describes two very specific uh is two specific instances she witnessed while she

00:04:07.560 was out campaigning she says uh she met these eight women and they wanted to vote for her and her

00:04:16.240 campaign had sent a van to drive them to the poll and this is perfectly legal helping get people to

00:04:21.940 the polls she said there were eight mostly elderly women they all get there and they're all waiting

00:04:27.380 around for the driver and they start to tell him sort us out sort us out the driver says i don't know

00:04:33.140 what this means so the driver calls her up she he asked her what it means she says i don't know what

00:04:37.640 it means apparently they were all promised two hundred dollars by somebody else and they were expecting

00:04:44.100 the two hundred dollars and she told so she tells the driver take him back home i don't want any part of

00:04:49.580 this she describes another situation where she met an older woman she asked if the woman had voted and

00:04:58.180 she said oh yeah sure i voted already said who'd you vote for i don't know and apparently after a few

00:05:05.380 more questions the woman revealed that a somali man came around knocked on her door and took her ballot

00:05:10.640 now this is apparently such a widespread situation that as she says in this video

00:05:18.240 the the elder somalis in the community a lot of them simply do not understand that buying votes is

00:05:25.180 illegal in the united states she says these are these are older refugees most of them have not been able

00:05:30.780 to learn english they they came from a very poor background they escaped a war and they've since

00:05:37.020 they've gotten to america they have been exploited like this they simply don't know they they think

00:05:43.300 it's just how it's done and so this woman who i'm describing her as a patriot in the article

00:05:49.500 look she wants to defund police she's very radical left i don't agree with her but what she says in

00:05:56.040 this article is this is a country of laws this is going to destroy our community it has to stop now

00:06:03.600 you all know about it we all know each other here and you all know sooner or later this is going to

00:06:10.440 come down on us and this she she's very upset that this is bringing a terror light on the somali american

00:06:17.740 community there and to be honest she's right i mean you know trump has been very hard on the community

00:06:25.040 and he is in every rally he discusses omar he discusses what's going on with minnesota and the

00:06:31.380 refugee community and that reputation there are a tremendous number of people in this community

00:06:38.540 they're all my sources and they've had enough they are intimidated they want to join america they don't

00:06:45.460 want to live like this and they feel like they have to keep their mouth shut this woman had enough

00:06:50.280 she got on she just got on facebook live talked for 15 minutes in somali she said her name she says

00:06:57.400 i know people are going to say i'm crazy i'm a snitch but she said you know what people know they

00:07:03.900 already know and you're all going to get caught and she's not a nobody i mean she is the former

00:07:09.160 head of the fundraising for the democratic party in minnesota is she not yeah the uh dfl is the name

00:07:17.440 of the democratic party in minneapolis she was the head of fundraising for the the dfl office in

00:07:24.180 minneapolis she has been selected for several state boards and commissions by the governor of

00:07:31.880 minnesota this is not a newcomer who just decided to run and had no vote this woman's been around

00:07:37.700 she's uh it seems like at least 15 years of volunteering and campaigning and activism in the

00:07:45.340 local democratic party she knows everybody and she just had enough she was tired of people asking her

00:07:52.160 for money and she was tired of seeing the seniors get exploited and she just posted this very upset

00:07:59.060 video i didn't edit it you posted the whole video on the site we posted the entire translation we got

00:08:06.180 two somali translators one person to translate one person to check it over and everything you see there

00:08:12.940 is exactly what she said and as of this moment the video is still live she posted this on july 6th

00:08:20.160 that won't be up there for very much longer uh we do have all of this burn to disc do we not

00:08:26.260 i'm sorry we do have all this on the hard drive don't we yes yes what you have posted right now

00:08:33.400 is uh stored on the blaze we did download it we have archived everything and uh it's not going anywhere

00:08:40.540 we did reach out to her for comments uh it's been two days and we have not heard back from her

00:08:46.340 uh but again if we do hear from her the first messages of course this is incredibly brave we

00:08:53.660 think she's a patriot we're glad she did this and she wouldn't be necessarily a friend of of the

00:08:59.740 blaze she probably i mean she is a progressive democrat absolutely again she if you look at her

00:09:07.180 campaign page she was certainly on board with defunding the police she said disfund dismantle rebuild

00:09:14.220 what was her motto on that um absolutely i don't expect she would be a fan of anything we post but

00:09:22.300 again uh my point of view on this again all i mean who do you think my sources have been for two years

00:09:29.280 uh somali refugees muslim refugees in the community which is about 80 percent uh democrat to begin with

00:09:39.400 but they're scared they're intimidated they've had enough they want to be so i mean david how do you

00:09:46.480 mean they've been intimidated who's intimidating them oh the the elder voters uh they people come

00:09:54.120 around collecting ballots and they simply think they have to give them the ballot uh because this is how

00:10:00.060 it went in somalia and she describes it she says you know we have all these other problems in our

00:10:05.780 community and now you can add corruption of seniors to that list uh there's there's everything that you

00:10:14.300 have put in this article has been verified and re-verified um and you can see it with your own

00:10:21.860 eyes you can read the text again uh somebody translated then we went back and we had somebody else

00:10:28.740 independently translate translate to make sure that it was all exactly uh what we say it is

00:10:35.040 uh and get her words exactly right uh and so all of this is all buttoned up there is another part of

00:10:43.500 this story that um may or may not be true that we will only know if a subpoena but it uh it goes to

00:10:51.880 keith ellison and i don't know if you want to or or care to share that but um it would explain why

00:10:59.200 nothing is being done by the attorney general uh any you want to share that i'm happy to share that

00:11:06.980 look the election is coming in two weeks and if we have several thousand votes purchased in a swing

00:11:13.360 state uh look minneapolis could be decided by a couple thousand votes uh and minnesota the state

00:11:20.420 the presidential election might be decided by minnesota so somebody's got to look into this now

00:11:26.300 so the what i've heard is that uh miss sayido shy is her name after she posted this video on july 6th

00:11:36.760 she received a text from keith ellison with two words shut up

00:11:41.660 now apparently people were trying to get her after she explained this to people they were trying to get

00:11:51.060 her to show to show the phone and to uh to just see the evidence of what happened and she she walked

00:11:58.580 away and left uh she was not willing to share that but yes that is uh that is the story circulating is

00:12:05.440 that after she posted this she gets a text from keith ellison shut up david you told me a few months ago

00:12:14.580 that you had confidence because you knew the fbi doj was looking into this uh and not this particular

00:12:20.680 thing but ilan omar and all of the corruption that was happening there with keith ellison etc etc

00:12:26.080 now we have this why hasn't anything been done is it is it just deep state all part of it

00:12:35.700 uh all i can say is that it's been it's been almost a year i'd say i think 11 months since

00:12:45.400 there was initially a meeting set up with the minnesota doj and the fbi to receive uh to speak

00:12:56.180 with some witnesses and to receive uh information some of it has been published some of it not

00:13:00.940 and i do know that the fbi then brought on uh an agent from ice and also an agent from the

00:13:13.760 department of education inspector general's office because ilhan omar's marriage fraud

00:13:20.400 is it absolutely appears to be partly part of it was immigration fraud part of it was student loan

00:13:29.700 fraud after she got married both she and her brother husband attended north dakota state

00:13:37.780 university for two years the marriage essentially started two months before school and they separated

00:13:45.640 two months after she gets her degree and they certainly would have received being married they

00:13:51.440 would have received a much better student loan deal so it was also sent to the department of education

00:13:57.380 uh david i want to to uh uh just consider something i just remembered in talking to you i remember

00:14:04.460 uh back in the day this is probably 2010 of hearing how out of control the state department was in

00:14:12.240 settling all of these somali refugees in one place that it was unusual and that they had just set up a

00:14:19.580 whole somali community and they they picked uh minnesota and the people involved at the time said i don't know

00:14:28.720 why this is happening why it's in minnesota and they just picked it and picked this whole community up

00:14:34.920 and planted in somalia now with everything we know about the state department i would i would wonder if

00:14:40.620 there's any um if there if they knew exactly what they were building there well look if you if you head

00:14:48.160 back to uh i believe the the bush administration was when this first began um they started to do dna

00:14:57.240 testing on the scene in in west africa and among the applicants and they completely shut off the somali

00:15:06.580 refugee program went up to i believe the number was 83 percent of tests proved that uh families were

00:15:15.100 not actually related to each other now again i'm i'm not here to criticize people fleeing

00:15:22.720 the war zones no more yeah yeah i'm not here to criticize i'm saying what they did was they brought

00:15:29.180 people to this country who could never assimilate because they came here on under illegal circumstances

00:15:37.860 so what you have in minneapolis is you have a community that was destined to fail destined to be

00:15:45.680 run by by strong arm uh you know people like ilhan omar's campaign because it's lawless nobody wants

00:15:53.660 to snitch everybody has a secret and that's what happened and and this woman is just she's tired of

00:16:00.080 it she you know it's she said it's worse than somalia it's lawless we have certainly heard of people

00:16:07.100 afraid to speak not because of of the bad actors in the somali community but because everybody has

00:16:15.380 relatives back home in somalia and they know uh they know who has power back there for example ilhan omar's

00:16:22.680 family is the most powerful family in in putland which is the the northern republic uh somalia is

00:16:30.580 essentially split into three loosely uh combined nations at the moment unstable the north the north

00:16:38.620 part putland uh garo i believe is the capital she has the most powerful family in the city over there

00:16:44.760 david yes thank you so much for this please uh keep us up to speed on it there is an exclusive

00:16:51.580 article now on the blaze.com front page read it share it with as many people as you can while you can

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00:17:59.780 this is the best of a glenn beck program

00:18:05.220 let me go to uh so rob amari uh he is the op-ed editor uh for the new york post author of the

00:18:15.860 unbroken uh thread and he has been witnessing in a part of this uh in real time on what is going on

00:18:25.440 so rob welcome gwen thanks for having me so tell me first of all quickly and we'll get back to it

00:18:32.280 maybe later quickly tell me the joe biden story that was posted yesterday so um this was a well

00:18:41.720 really a hunter and and joe biden story um you'll remember that um joe biden has repeatedly and

00:18:49.740 emphatically denied that there was nothing untoward going on between his family his dynasty

00:18:57.220 and ukraine while uh mr biden was vice president and the second most powerful man on earth

00:19:06.520 playing an outsized role in the destiny of that embattled eastern european nation he's denied it but

00:19:14.440 um the new york post my colleagues i'm not the reporter on this i can't take any of the credit for

00:19:20.040 it i'm just our opinion or op editor um but our reporters uh got hold of uh the contents of a hard

00:19:28.740 drive um that appeared to belong to hunter biden and they include uh emails showing that uh the

00:19:39.380 uh firm called barisma it's a shady ukrainian energy firm that had um hunter on its board of directors

00:19:48.800 paying him at least fifty thousand dollars a month nice work if you can get it uh that they had um

00:19:55.720 asked him to arrange a meeting uh with his father and so it becomes clear why uh our illustrious vice

00:20:06.520 presidential son you know uh otherwise has no special expertise in eastern european energy markets

00:20:13.580 and oil and gas matters was being paid fifty thousand dollars a month i mean it was obvious

00:20:18.560 all along right why would charisma pay hunter biden fifty thousand dollars a month but now we

00:20:24.640 you know we we we get it it's it's influence peddling and so in addition to other things that just

00:20:30.760 corroborate that you know this is this is the real material you need also that among the cache of

00:20:37.480 material there are all sorts of personal photos including photos of hunter with like a crack pipe

00:20:42.860 in his mouth smoking you know and sort of debauched stuff um but the important thing is that uh we were

00:20:49.540 very clear from the beginning about how we got hold of this material it was reported deeply fairly

00:20:56.200 meticulously meticulously and uh it was based on much more solid sourcing than mountains of stories

00:21:06.220 published and center-left outlets over the past four years sure that collapsed and were based on uh

00:21:13.660 uh unnamed sources telling unnamed sources telling the reporter and none of those got censored by the

00:21:21.600 major media social media platforms the way this story is and this story in this story i mean it's

00:21:27.860 either a very good fraud um or it is the truth and and the reason why i say a very good fraud fraud is

00:21:35.820 it confirms all of these threads that most people aren't even covering that it covers all of the threads

00:21:44.640 and all of the uh players that if you've really been doing your homework if you really know the story

00:21:50.600 of burisma etc etc it all fits it all fits yeah i mean i blend there is something very uh delicious

00:21:59.960 about this because we've you know past the past four years talking about collusion collusion collusion

00:22:06.700 that never never materialized the special counsel again in his report robert muller definitively ruled

00:22:15.000 out there having been any collusion between team trump and the kremlin right or any russian assets or

00:22:21.380 elements definitively ruled out then at the end of this hail end of his four years it's almost like

00:22:26.940 some sort of greek tragedy or or comedy uh you know you find uh uh you know a cache of material that

00:22:35.040 confirms that there was influence peddling certainly with foreign entities when joe biden was

00:22:41.420 vice president with his clan so yesterday yesterday they came out and said joe biden because in this

00:22:48.000 information it it shows that uh hunter biden asked for a meeting with uh the burisma officials

00:22:56.040 uh and joe biden in washington and joe biden said well uh there's nothing on the official schedule

00:23:02.840 however there's a hole in his schedule exactly where that meeting was supposed to take place

00:23:07.780 and also the july or the january 5th uh meeting that we know now because of handwritten notes

00:23:15.040 he was a part of with president obama that went uh went against what the fbi was saying

00:23:22.040 um we know that happened and that's not on the his schedule so what does it's not on my schedule even mean

00:23:29.020 so go ahead if i may i just want to rehearse the denial that the trump that the biden

00:23:35.800 uh camp put forward yesterday okay and go through it's it has three elements and it's very amusing if

00:23:42.740 you think about it so the first element says a bipartisan committee found that you know joe biden

00:23:50.160 had done nothing wrong in ukraine concluded that that's a non sequitur we we have new evidence so

00:23:56.280 that it doesn't be whatever that can you know various congressional bodies found fine that's very

00:24:00.160 nice but we have new evidence that's you know we have the smoking gun or the smoking crack pipe if you

00:24:05.100 will so that i can't rule that the second one was the second one was the post did not tell us

00:24:12.200 that rudy giuliani was involved in obtaining this underlying material okay but plenty of newspapers

00:24:18.120 don't go around saying who their sources are so that again is a non sequitur and then the third thing

00:24:23.820 they said was that the meeting and this is uh you know as you know if you know lawyers if you know pr

00:24:28.980 people there choose words very very carefully they said the meeting did not take place as alleged by

00:24:36.140 the new york post as alleged by the new york post so okay so but then in a political story they said

00:24:42.940 they couldn't rule out the possibility that an informal get-together took place so this is a story

00:24:49.580 where we're being banned we're not being facebook has reduced distribution they said they had and and

00:24:56.480 you can't post it on twitter um this is a story where the complainant has not disputed really any of

00:25:03.220 the facts in the story right then that's the person who's being accused they haven't hunter it does not

00:25:08.760 say that i didn't write those emails or what anything like that so twitter and facebook are acting

00:25:16.120 on a case where the even the person who's being accused in the story isn't really denying

00:25:20.540 the core facts so now here is what happened yesterday we know that uh twitter and facebook

00:25:27.620 uh throttled you back twitter actually uh i think banned your post did it not

00:25:33.420 uh correct so it began with a facebook official actually named andy stone andy stone tweeted although

00:25:42.800 he's a facebook official but he used twitter to say that you know i'm paraphrasing but i won't link

00:25:47.480 to that awful new york post story but it certainly deserves fact checking in the meanwhile we have

00:25:53.580 taken steps to reduce its distribution on our social media platform now the thing to know about andy

00:25:59.460 andy stone before we get into the actual substance of that stuff is andy stone in his bio says before

00:26:05.960 he joined facebook he worked for uh as a staffer for senator barbara boxer democrat of california

00:26:13.480 and for the democratic congressional campaign committee the dccc that's weird so you have

00:26:18.620 essentially a democratic operative who's at the levers of control for you know where free speech

00:26:25.980 really happens right we have theoretically we have a first amendment where i can go in in a

00:26:31.280 you know i live in manhattan i can go on a street corner and sort of bang drums and be like hunter

00:26:36.380 was corrupt but that's not where speech really happens in our day and age where it really matters

00:26:41.740 is on these privately owned platforms that's where free speech either lives or dies and the person who

00:26:48.200 controls the levers is an openly democratic operative proudly says he works for senator boxer and works

00:26:55.260 for or used to work for the dccc and is reducing distribution and then a couple hours later

00:27:01.280 i think i tried to post the story and i noticed i got an error message from twitter saying you know

00:27:07.120 uh we've we've determined that this story is harmful alongside our partners and so we're not going to

00:27:13.980 let you post it so here's what you get today today when you get uh the post of hey make sure you read

00:27:20.840 our follow-up you're not going to get it because they're not circulating it um but uh i tried to

00:27:26.720 click through on the story and it says warning this link may be unsafe the link you're trying

00:27:32.320 to access has been identified by twitter or our partners as being potentially spammy or unsafe in

00:27:40.200 accordance with twitter's url policy this link could fall into any of the below categories malicious

00:27:45.780 links that could steal personal identification or harm electronic devices spammy links that mislead

00:27:53.440 people or disrupt their experience violent or misleading content that could lead to real world

00:28:00.400 harm or certain categories of content that if posted directly on twitter are a violation of the twitter

00:28:06.320 rules back to the previous page or ignore this warning and continue that is so damaging to not only

00:28:14.980 your traffic but also your reputation that i think there's a lawsuit uh to be had in that

00:28:21.720 well i i will leave that to uh to our legal team but what i will say is that we are talking about

00:28:28.700 america's oldest continuously published newspaper that was founded by one of our founding fathers

00:28:33.880 alexander hamilton and i get goosebumps when i say that about the post and so you know this is not

00:28:40.300 some sketchy website where they can do this without consequence this is uh an old newspaper

00:28:48.100 uh a beloved newspaper in new york city a paper that's a local paper but also has a national and

00:28:54.340 global voice and imprint and uh you know the the closest thing to an argument i saw from a twitter

00:29:01.120 safety thread they had put up they said um this includes uh you know information that was you know

00:29:08.300 unauthorized for release well my twitter friends let me tell you about uh the pentagon papers let me tell

00:29:15.100 you about the trump tax story all of journalism is practically built on disclosing things that

00:29:20.460 people don't want disclosed that's the the line of work that you and i are in glenn so what does that

00:29:28.060 mean so what is the what is the solution to this uh where do you see this going so rob oh i glenn i

00:29:38.560 um you know we're conservative and we're used to i mean i am uh we're used to talking about uh you know

00:29:47.820 everything being a uh a market-based solution to everything but i think um you know there are

00:29:56.240 situations where market actors can become monopolistic and we have a you know a great republican

00:30:02.480 trust-busting tradition uh you know the way that these uh operators can uh uh silence dissident

00:30:11.100 voices essentially i mean i described it in a column in today's paper i said this is a kind of

00:30:16.380 neo-totalitarianism and it's not the kind of totalitarianism where you know you have this

00:30:21.780 hardened man in a darkened cell driving a screw under someone's nails and so forth it's just this kind of

00:30:27.920 you know kind of silicon valley type who's very righteous and certain that you know he's educated

00:30:33.240 and he knows better than the american people and they they shouldn't be able to decide for themselves

00:30:38.280 what information they read and and what conclusions they draw it's better if someone enlightened like

00:30:44.140 himself or herself um decide for them i'm in engineering i went to engineering school i know tech

00:30:49.520 so i know better than you um and that's you know profoundly un-american but they have the power

00:30:55.040 because that's where that as i said this is where speech really happens if we have free speech

00:31:00.340 it it lives or dies on these platforms not not just on a street corner and so um i believe there has to

00:31:07.400 be reform of uh you know the law governing uh a lot of these platforms it's called section 230 uh and

00:31:16.900 it it's all very complex but the bottom line is look if we at the new york post publish

00:31:24.120 libelous material against someone we can be held liable in court um for for publishing libel if you

00:31:33.940 broadcast libel you can be but this law in the 90s created a kind of carve out that said you know

00:31:41.860 platforms that are these neutral platforms can uh uh avoid liability they're like bulletin boards so

00:31:50.640 the stuff that you various people come and post on there even if it's libelous they don't they're

00:31:55.420 not treated as publishers the way the way your program is or the way uh our you know our newspaper

00:32:02.060 is treated under the law um and and they're specifically allowed to censor you know prurient

00:32:08.020 content right but the whole philosophy behind section 230 was that they would act like neutral

00:32:14.840 arbiters other than these kind of specific categories of pornography and so forth um but

00:32:20.640 you know now they're not they're they're really acting like publishers twitter has a kind of world

00:32:25.480 view of its own like right now if you go on twitter there's a kind of the first page that opens up says

00:32:31.200 discover or search i can't remember and it kind of presents what twitter's own editors think are

00:32:36.860 interesting stories and today's is guess what the washington post confirmed that joe biden did not uh

00:32:44.060 push that troublesome prosecutor to be fired literally says that there is video of joe biden

00:32:50.560 saying sorry i get angry about this stuff because it's such gaslighting there is video of joe biden

00:32:54.860 saying uh uh i pushed that guy out i threatened the ukrainian saying if he's not fired by the time i'm gone

00:33:01.400 this is the best of the glenbeck program

00:33:07.280 so i just want to i just want to get the both of you on to see what you agree on and what you

00:33:15.080 disagree on and where the differences are because i get a happy vibe from steve i get a very sad vibe

00:33:23.240 from stew uh and i i want i just want some hope in my life so if you both agree with what stew says in

00:33:32.160 the end please spin it in such a way you know i'm not buying the stool i already have the rope

00:33:37.960 okay donald trump is gonna win by 45 points that's my prediction good and we keep the senate oh gosh

00:33:44.340 they're gonna have all the senators even though it's not even running they're gonna resign and

00:33:47.340 get appointed to be republicans wow that's great okay so steve start with the let's start with a

00:33:52.960 happy talk and the good news tell me why we shouldn't believe the polls and which polls are accurate

00:33:59.980 you know i i just goes to show you how weird this year is that i am now where america goes for

00:34:06.200 optimism i don't even know what to do with that i know i know i know the feeling they came to me

00:34:12.580 they came to me for common sense you just reasonably like well we want him to explain it what that's how

00:34:18.620 screwed up you are this is usually the stage of the election when you all put me in a closet so i

00:34:23.660 don't ruin this thing down the stretch okay but but the reality is that the methodologies are just

00:34:30.420 deeply flawed and i think we could have two separate debates who's going to win the election

00:34:34.780 and are the polls correct and i just look at just this morning uh three of the last four polls that

00:34:40.900 were included in the rcp average real clear politics polling average are are putting donald trump

00:34:46.080 in the danger zone of breaking herbert hoover's record for the worst popular vote finish in the

00:34:51.860 two-party era when it was just a two-man race of an incumbent president he got 39.7 percent

00:34:58.200 you look at the base energy donald trump has you look at the energy of the crowds that he can draw

00:35:04.280 you look at where the unemployment numbers are i think we're going to get a massive economic growth

00:35:10.160 report here at the end of this month there's just no way possible donald trump is going to hover

00:35:15.900 anywhere near on a light and then how polarized the country is how radicalized the opposition

00:35:21.480 is there's no way he's getting a herbert hoover like popular vote percentage and i just go back

00:35:27.280 to 2008 i mean guys tell me right now right now which campaign do you think if you didn't look at a

00:35:34.880 poll if you looked at every other metric which campaign do you think was in better shape at this

00:35:39.820 state without mccain 2008 or trump 2020 which one which wait wait wait which one trump 2020 or mccain

00:35:47.620 2008 oh my gosh yeah absolutely trump 2020 well the good news for you is the real clear politics polling

00:35:54.800 average at this point had john mccain about three and a half points better than it has donald trump so

00:35:59.800 at the and that in that election barack obama got the biggest democratic presidential election victory

00:36:06.360 since lbj's historic romp in 1964 so then to me we're starting from a baseline glenn that the polls

00:36:13.860 are at least wrong that donald trump is at least in as good a shape as john mccain was in 2008 and then

00:36:20.540 we can debate how much better shape from there i will tell you that i think it is possible to see

00:36:26.680 now now not with the historic reasons uh of obama but i think there is in the gop the kind of

00:36:36.020 momentum that that uh barack obama had in the democratic party not the crossover independence

00:36:43.940 i'm not talking about that but the people who are in the party there's i think there is the kind of

00:36:50.120 he's got to win kind of attitude uh that obama had in the this is going to be great historic you've got to

00:37:01.160 vote for him because what it says about you in history i think that's the same kind of momentum

00:37:06.740 i agree i know i think the momentum is there on the opposite of that as well he's got to lose or

00:37:13.620 america is over and i i think both of those dynamics are at play you look at the you look at the the voter

00:37:20.040 registration energy on the republican side all over the country republicans are actually winning early

00:37:25.060 voting right now never happened as far as i that i can ever remember uh and and but you look at the

00:37:30.460 amount of money democrat candidates are raising all over the country it's insane amounts of money

00:37:35.240 i think that just further proves this isn't going to be some historic 12 point popular vote margin

00:37:41.980 loss it's not even going to be some historic i mean barack obama i just said had the biggest win

00:37:46.820 since 1964 he won the popular vote by seven points joe biden is going to do better than that and

00:37:52.840 against a sitting president with this kind of loyalty amongst his own base there's no way that's

00:37:58.380 going to happen so i'm not arguing that trump is going to win i can't bet political futures in iowa

00:38:04.160 if i could and you gave me plus 160 or plus 200 i'd absolutely put 100 or something on trump

00:38:09.820 would i do it straight up no okay but if you were going to give me value odds yeah you bet i would bet him

00:38:16.140 but that's a different question to are the polls right okay those methodologies are flawed clearly all

00:38:22.180 right before we get into the methodologies stew comment on what he just said because those are

00:38:28.560 good points yeah and i think i don't think there's much there that i disagree with i don't believe it's

00:38:33.280 going to wind up a 12 point i mean these there are polls out there that are showing that but i i don't

00:38:39.180 think that's going to be the reality um you know the the average poll right now is around what's what's

00:38:45.360 the rcp at right now uh is seven or eight uh it's it's increased a little bit since that debate but

00:38:51.000 it's been bouncing around in the high single digits basically um i i do think we'll see some

00:38:57.200 narrowing before election day i'd be surprised if donald trump loses by more than john mccain i think

00:39:03.040 steve's right on that like i mean my impression not looking at a poll would be that they're in better

00:39:06.980 shape but again he you know this has bounced perfectly for joe biden you know i mean what is

00:39:14.020 donald trump's best strength as a campaigner large in-person rallies he's tried to do that

00:39:20.300 but for most of the year they've basically been illegal right he's he's had he's in the middle

00:39:25.140 of the you know the the pandemic and all the things that that bring along but it doesn't only bring

00:39:29.000 around bring along negative things like you know economic despair and all that with with trump it

00:39:34.340 also brings out incredibly positive things for joe biden in that you can hide him i mean they've been

00:39:39.740 able to literally hide this guy i don't know if you've seen a single crowd of joe biden's they just

00:39:46.300 they they show them at an in an airport hangar and they never show the crowd because there's nobody there

00:39:53.860 yeah and you know i think trump entered the first debate with an opportunity to change the narrative and

00:40:01.040 and take him from a place where he was i think throughout the summer which was behind but you know

00:40:07.440 within striking distance with a couple of big good positive events and he had three three of these

00:40:13.280 debates to go the first one it's you know we we all covered it together we all thought it was a

00:40:18.760 terrible debate uh and it seems to have affected the polls in a negative way for trump debate number

00:40:25.140 two gets canceled because trump's got the coronavirus uh and debate three is i mean it's supposed to happen

00:40:32.080 next week but is it i mean who even knows we're now seeing that kamala harris has uh people who are

00:40:37.280 traveling with her that have tested positive for coronavirus so would you be shocked in the least

00:40:42.820 no if joe biden again this is one of the reasons i don't understand what trump was doing tonight

00:40:47.220 you have an opportunity joe biden is going on television for a length a period of time and

00:40:52.300 actually going to talk in front of the camera the last thing in the world i want people to do

00:40:56.300 is to not see that and now donald trump is on another network who's going with savannah

00:41:02.740 guthrie who hates him who hates his guts like i if i was donald trump i would walk out on stage

00:41:08.760 with a television with abc's broadcast of joe biden and just hold it up to the camera and hope

00:41:13.680 people watch that because honestly like people know who donald trump is they need the problem i think

00:41:19.940 that trump has here is that people unlike 2016 where they hated hillary clinton they don't have that

00:41:26.140 visceral hatred uh for joe biden and he's just a non-factor so they're looking at trump and trying

00:41:32.580 to guard it and so i i would agree with steve that there are there have been some outlier polls i think

00:41:36.860 the the the ones in double digits i just don't believe i think i'm with steve i just inherently

00:41:41.100 don't believe them all right so i want to get to methodology because that's where stew always you

00:41:45.340 live there and so does steve oh yeah steve was uh uh a a campaign guy who used to you know commission

00:41:53.180 polls and he reads them uh you know he used to for a living he knows what they mean uh and stew has done

00:42:00.860 the same over the 20 years that i've been with him and i i want to see where you agree and disagree

00:42:06.120 on the polls and their methodology tell me about the methodology and where you think these polls are

00:42:13.900 falling apart and if there are any polls that you trust well i i trust methodologies not brands i

00:42:21.560 need to know it's similar to when i looked at covet models earlier this year i didn't say i'm an

00:42:25.500 epidemiologist i just said these models are bad those are two different questions okay same thing

00:42:30.500 here uh when you have a model and that's what a poll is it's a model a poll of assumptions and

00:42:35.780 premise and logic have to add up to the conclusion and then you got to be able to reverse engineer it

00:42:40.340 meaning that when i see your conclusion and then i go backwards and look at how you arrived at that

00:42:44.420 conclusion it makes sense to me so let me let me give you two polls and brands that a lot of

00:42:49.280 conservative audiences trust in 2016 rasmussen was the most accurate national poll last week it put out

00:42:56.100 a poll that had trump down by 12 points and it had him with only getting only getting 76 percent of

00:43:01.460 republican voters despite the fact he's averaged an 87 percent approval rating throughout his presidency with

00:43:07.040 republicans despite the fact that four years ago glenn he faced guys like you me and not the fake

00:43:11.700 conservatives but real ones like you me ben shapiro that didn't want to vote for him four years ago

00:43:15.580 that he doesn't face this time and and they said he's going to get one out of basically one out of every

00:43:20.960 four republicans that would be the worst by a republican president since george hw bush in 1992

00:43:26.600 who had ross perot that's clearly not going to happen and that 12 point decline of republican voters

00:43:33.200 from 2016 was their entire top line result of biden plus 12 and then look at the most recent fox poll

00:43:40.160 so fox has a poll and here's their dual headline uh from fox news biden widens lead but people but

00:43:47.160 but trump widens the gap of people who think he's going to win if if i if i was doing a poll and i asked

00:43:54.440 people hey who do you think is going to win and it was like 30 point swing difference or 25 point swing

00:44:01.440 difference from what i was going to weight my top line results i'd fire myself for that okay i mean

00:44:08.560 i cannot believe fox news published that garbage it one of those things has both those things glenn can

00:44:15.360 be false one of them can be true and the other false they cannot both simultaneously though be true

00:44:21.840 yeah i mean there's been some polls i've seen where he's outperforming every republican among hispanic and

00:44:27.720 black voters uh over the past just several decades and he's down by eight and ten and twelve points

00:44:33.560 um i think though like when you look at this as a whole right like because i think i see these same

00:44:40.280 results i think as steve is seeing and we're maybe looking at slightly different things he may be very

00:44:45.480 right i believe the final vote will not be 10 or 12 points however there's a lot of room before

00:44:51.560 between uh um there's a polling error and donald trump winning this election there's a significant

00:44:57.960 different issues but here's why i don't disagree with any of your analysis i mean i could stew i could

00:45:03.480 come back with it with a counter pro trump analysis but it would be really splitting hairs this is why i'm

00:45:09.000 zeroing on these methodologies because i think these methodologies are the same thing as the bad corrupt

00:45:13.880 covid models we got earlier this year it's a psyop it is trying to convince you don't believe what your eyes

00:45:20.520 see yes trump pulled in 25 000 people down the street from me last night and 30 of them were

00:45:26.520 registered democrats don't believe any of that don't believe any of that here's our poll the next

00:45:30.600 morning he's going to lose by 12 points just like throw out the laws of immunology virology and biology

00:45:36.120 antibodies doesn't mean you're immune anymore there's no t-cell immunity what is it we don't know never

00:45:41.160 heard of it it's the same thing that that's why i'm zeroed in on the models because i think what it

00:45:46.920 is is a psyop operation just like the covet doomsday ihme models and do and imperial college models

00:45:53.960 were the same it's the it's a model with the intent of generating a policy result that's what we saw with

00:45:59.480 covid and this is a model with an intent of generating an outcome electoral result that's

00:46:04.680 what i think you're seeing right now all right so then let's go here what do you think is going to

00:46:10.280 happen what's what do you what does your gut tell you is going to happen if i worked on the trump

00:46:16.920 campaign this would be my brutally honest analysis mr president i really believe whatever items are

00:46:22.760 trending on social media the day before the election will determine whose narrative is driving

00:46:27.800 out turnout i think it's a very volatile election i think it's all driven by negatives and no aspirational

00:46:34.120 or no inspirational aspects at all and therefore i think on a given day my prediction of who would win

00:46:39.480 this election would be determined by what stories are trending what narratives are trending whoever's

00:46:44.760 dumbest last loses i really believe that i think that could be a four or five point swing right there

00:46:50.200 within 24 hours and i think you know one of the because you mentioned the the impact on on the way

00:46:56.920 these polls are going for a lot of people and i think that's it's true a lot of people are are are

00:47:02.120 looking at this oh maybe it's hopeless and maybe i won't go i do see the opposite too on conservative

00:47:07.080 media and this is not not what steve's doing here at all he's doing obviously a much more detailed

00:47:11.880 analysis but there's a lot of like social media people on the conservative side who are kind of

00:47:16.440 giving this idea that like look in 2016 everybody said the polls are wrong and that you know look

00:47:21.960 they were wrong last time and they're going to be wrong again this time and this idea that like

00:47:26.920 the democrats are going to be sobbing into their into their arms and they're going to be all their

00:47:31.160 tears are going to be piling up in the streets and we're all going to laugh at them

00:47:34.040 and i don't think that a lot of people at least um you know real hardcore trump supporters who are

00:47:39.800 on a lot of social media have the idea that this is where this is like there is a point here that

00:47:45.560 donald trump needs to do what steve's talking about right he needs to be on the right side of these late

00:47:49.760 breaking issues it's it's not it's not it's not a thing where trump is killing is crushing this and

00:47:55.280 winning by a ton as it's presented by so many on on the right and i i feel like the opposite

00:48:01.080 psychological thing might happen where conservatives are like wow they all said it was wrong last time

00:48:06.480 what do i need to do i don't need to go out and knock on that last door i don't need to make those

00:48:09.520 extra phone calls i haven't met a conservative yet that feels that way it's all over social media for

00:48:15.460 sure well that's that's unfortunate i have met people who think he's gonna win but they always go

00:48:20.300 he's gonna win right you know what i mean uh and that's different than ah he's gonna win

00:48:27.260 you

The Glenn Beck Program - October 15, 2020

Best of The Program ｜ Guests： Sohrab Ahmari & David Steinberg ｜ 10⧸15⧸20

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