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00:00:27.880If you're anything like the vast majority of Americans, the following question will be depressing to answer. In a typical month, do you ever host people, whether friends or family, in your home to spend any amount of time together? I'm talking about friends or family members from outside of your household. Do they come over and spend time with you at least once a month on average?
00:00:51.040Well, the author Derek Thompson on his Substack recently reported on the latest data on how people are answering this question and how the responses have changed over time.
00:01:00.260And you can see on your screen right now, from 1975 to 2026, the percentage of Americans who host people at their home at least once a month has dropped from 42 percent, nearly half of the country, to just 12 percent, which adds up to a decline of more than 70 percent.
00:01:17.960So in just 50 years, inviting friends and family over to your home has gone from very typical experience to extremely rare.
00:01:27.660By the same token, in that period, the number of Americans who host or attend monthly dinner parties is down by 62% to just 6% overall.
00:01:37.760The number of Americans who report playing cards once a month has dropped by 67% to 13% overall.
00:01:44.240The number of Americans who finish a book every month has dropped 60% to just 15% overall.
00:01:50.440The number of Americans, of course, who attend church at least once a month is down by 58% to 24% overall.
00:01:57.720This is a decline that's been underway for some time.
00:02:02.920These are the trends from 1975 to the late 1990s, which were compiled by something called the DDB Needham Lifestyle Surveys,
00:02:11.300which were cited by Robert Putnam in his famous Bowling Alone book, which you've probably heard
00:02:18.240of. As you can see, even before the introduction of cell phones and the internet, Americans were
00:02:23.840already becoming dramatically less likely to host people at their homes or go on picnics or attend
00:02:31.460church or, you know, involve themselves in social activities in general. So we've been on this
00:02:37.360trajectory for some time. And now we have data through 2026, which was compiled by a separate
00:02:44.000group called Data for Progress, which replicated the methodology of the lifestyle surveys that
00:02:49.120were conducted in the 1990s. And unambiguously, the new data demonstrates that Americans are far
00:02:55.520more isolated and lonelier than they've ever been at any point in human history. And it's not just
00:03:03.340dinner parties and poker we're talking about, no matter what social event you think of, odds are
00:03:09.620it's become dramatically less popular in the past few decades. This chart shows how many Americans
00:03:16.140have done these activities at least one time in the past year. So we're not even talking about
00:03:21.660monthly numbers anymore, and it's comparing 1995 numbers to 2026 numbers. And according to this
00:03:27.500data, only 49% of people have gone to a bar or tavern one time in the past 12 months. Just 46%
00:03:36.420attended a sporting event. Just 32% have attended a class or seminar, down from 54% in 1995. Again,
00:03:43.500this is just over the course of a year. And as you'd expect, more Americans are eating alone
00:03:49.000than ever. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2023, roughly 25% of Americans
00:03:53.800reported eating all of their meals alone the previous day, which is an increase of 53 percent
00:03:59.900compared with 2003. And the problem is particularly common among young people. Another analysis cited
00:04:06.560by the New York Times found that, quote, for American adults under 25, there has been an 80
00:04:11.300percent increase in dining alone. Now think about how bizarre and unprecedented this is. Total social
00:04:18.260isolation, which is what we're talking about, wasn't even an option for humans. Aside from
00:04:24.800like hermits living in the woods, for everybody else, it wasn't even an option until very recently.
00:04:30.440I mean, you couldn't just stay in your house every day, all day, you would die.
00:04:34.520Now it is an option at scale. And lots of people at scale are taking advantage of that option.
00:04:42.080This phenomenon is not unique to the United States, not even close. In fact, it's even worse
00:04:46.960in other places. In Japan, they now have an official category called lonely deaths,
00:04:52.000where somebody dies alone and their body isn't discovered for a lengthy period of time.
00:04:58.900Lonely deaths have become so common that they're now tracked by the government in Japan. And
00:05:02.820one of the most well-known examples, the death that made Japan realize they had a problem,
00:05:07.760took place in 2000. So this was a long time ago. It's gotten worse since then.
00:05:11.600when a 69-year-old man was discovered on the floor of a massive government apartment complex.
00:05:18.040He had been dead for three years, not months, years, and no one noticed. All of his rent and
00:05:26.120utility payments were auto-paid through his bank, so there was no reason to evict him.
00:05:30.820It wasn't until his savings finally ran out after several years that the police came to investigate.
00:05:36.420And what they found, as the New York Times reported, was, quote,
00:05:38.960his skeleton near the kitchen, it's flesh picked clean by maggots and beetles just a few feet away
00:05:45.000from his next door neighbors. This is the reality of living in a country that's well below replacement
00:05:51.240level in terms of its birth rates. Before long, elderly people start dying and there's no one to
00:05:57.220check in on them. Preventing this horrific and highly depressing state of affairs in our own
00:06:03.380country should obviously be a top priority, maybe the single highest priority, for our elected
00:06:10.320leaders. We're not far behind Japan in this regard. Japan's birth rate is roughly 45% below
00:06:16.320replacement level. Meanwhile, the United States is around 25% below replacement level. Combine that
00:06:22.160with the data we just talked about, and it's not hard to see that lonely deaths are going to become
00:06:27.380an epidemic in this country very soon, if they aren't already. We're already seeing a dramatic
00:06:33.120rise in deaths of despair, particularly from overdoses. And the problem is only going to get
00:06:38.920much worse based on every indication we have at the moment, especially when you consider how much
00:06:44.620more prevalent this isolation problem has become in the younger generations. And there's tons of
00:06:51.060research that bears this out. Just one example. So in the 1970s, more than half of high school
00:06:56.180seniors reported hanging out with their friends almost every day. In 2017, that number had fallen
00:07:01.880to 28%. And we can safely assume it's dropped precipitously since then. Now, you know, for all
00:07:09.440the messaging that we've heard about AI in recent months, from the doomsday alarmists who think that
00:07:16.680AI will destroy the world overnight, to the AI maximalists who are willfully blind to the massive
00:07:23.380disruption this technology will cause, and who now insist that we call AI superintelligence in
00:07:29.320order to, I don't know, flatter it or something, this is a fundamental point that both sides are
00:07:35.700missing, which is that AI poses a very real risk of intensifying and maybe metastasizing
00:07:44.580the epidemic of loneliness and despair in this country like nothing we've ever seen before.
00:07:50.060In fact, you can make the case that this is the single greatest threat that AI poses, at least in the short term.
00:07:58.000You know, it's not any of the sort of apocalyptic AI will wipe out the human race in two years type of stuff.
00:08:04.740It's the high likelihood of a critical mass of people developing parasocial relationships with a non-human computer algorithm.
00:08:12.740AI, after all, affords you the opportunity, especially if you're already a very lonely person, as lots of people are, to make a friend, quote unquote, who is always available, always serves your needs, always has advice, always focuses on you, always cares, only cares about what you want.
00:08:34.240there's been a lot of talk recently about the ai armageddon warnings from industry whistleblowers
00:08:41.000that sound like something out of the book of revelations and according to these doomsayers
00:08:45.960there's a high likelihood that the technology will kill all humans not just like a lot of humans or
00:08:52.180most but all potentially by the end of the current decade is what they've claimed now we've gone over
00:08:59.200the reasons why these predictions are implausible and why AI companies themselves might have a
00:09:04.440vested interest in stoking these fears. But for all the anxiety verging on full-fledged mania
00:09:11.660and for all the cinematic visions of the kind of apocalypse that James Cameron might dream up,
00:09:18.540there is a looming catastrophe of a sort not as suited for Hollywood screenplays.
00:09:24.080what happens when people in large numbers decide that they can satisfy their need for human
00:09:32.100connection by connecting with artificial humans instead and on second thought maybe that is suited
00:09:38.620for a hollywood screenplay back in 2013 joaquin phoenix started a movie called her and the film
00:09:43.720was set in a not so distant dystopian future where everybody has an ai voice assistant that
00:09:48.380they talk to and interact with more than any actual human in their lives. And many people
00:09:53.780in the movie, including the protagonist, develop romantic relationships with these operating
00:09:58.600systems. I think of all the sci-fi dystopias envisioned by authors and filmmakers,
00:10:05.300this may prove to be the most prophetic. Now, for a while, it was easy to dismiss the possibility
00:10:11.800that AI could lead to these kinds of relationships, since AI, at least the kind available to consumers,
00:10:46.920You know, tech companies have spent untold billions of dollars specifically developing and programming their models to be as human-like as possible.
00:10:57.480The models don't have to be programmed that way, but they are.
00:11:02.120The companies want you to feel like you're talking to a person anytime you use AI.
00:11:09.060Even if you're using it for something banal, you know, you're asking for a stir-fry recipe, let's say, or whatever.
00:11:15.780It's programmed to give the response the way that a person might.
00:11:21.460And if you're consulting AI for more personal or psychologically or emotionally intimate reasons,
00:11:27.080and there's reason to think that a lot of people are doing that and doing it very frequently, as we'll discuss,
00:11:34.340then that personalized human-like quality will be even more pronounced.
00:11:38.620It's an illusion, but it's a very powerful one.
00:11:41.820and billions of dollars have gone into creating this illusion.
00:11:47.500And the illusion is exploiting a deeply embedded aspect of human psychology,
00:11:52.080which we'll talk about more in a moment.
00:11:56.360And these problems exist just with text-based chatbots.
00:12:01.340But tech companies, not just the big ones, but dozens of startups as well,
00:12:05.080are now hard at work trying to make AI chatbots
00:12:08.800that have a lifelike visual component as well.
00:12:14.020Highly realistic AI video chats are coming,
00:30:15.700I mean, I know that I brought it up to you, but I'll let you tell the story.
00:30:22.060Credit where it is due. You brought chess into my life back in February in a conversation about whether being bad at chess means anything. It does not.
00:30:30.180Okay. Again, I've reached my limit. So yeah, there's that person. Now, you're tempted to conclude that this has to be a bit and that no one can possibly be this deluded and desperate. But if you spend any amount of time on TikTok, which is a mistake, you'll quickly discover that this is an entire genre.
00:30:48.600I mean, there's a lot of this stuff out there.
00:43:02.740We tell stories to ourselves about the world around us.
00:43:05.420And we are highly, highly susceptible to see agency, conscious, deliberate action, where none exists.
00:43:15.020Evolutionary psychologists have a term for this.
00:43:16.900They call it hyperactive agency detection.
00:43:19.440And historically, they've used this theory to try to explain away religion.
00:43:24.760which is a false application of the theory, in my view, but the human instinct they're pointing to
00:43:30.420is real. So when AI is programmed to act human, it is preying upon thousands of years of human
00:43:38.860adaptation. It's exploiting our internal agency detection model, our instinct to perceive mind
00:43:45.320and intent in a very sophisticated way. It creates a deeply deceptive illusion that for a lot of
00:43:53.800people in this country has already proven to be too powerful to overcome. And none of this is
00:44:00.920happening by accident. These models have been programmed to talk to you, not just like a person,
00:44:08.560but like a person who knows you and cares about you. And you don't have to be stupid to fall for
00:44:15.960the illusion. The technology was built to hack the psychological instincts that thousands of years
00:44:22.060of human experience have wired into your brain. And again, once they attach a face to the AI,
00:44:29.460it will short-circuit that wiring in such a powerful way that large swaths of otherwise
00:44:36.160intelligent and rational people will fall for it. It'll take real effort and thought to not fall for
00:44:44.020it. Now, you might think of overstating the ramifications of the video component,
00:44:49.400But keep in mind that people respond emotionally when they see what seems like a human face in a rock formation or a piece of toast.
00:44:59.820And we know the rock and the toast are not human, obviously, but even the vague appearance of something kind of approximating a human face in an inanimate object is enough to at least generate a mild feeling of recognition.
00:45:15.660Well, what about a fully human face with entirely lifelike and human expressions that can talk to you and address you by name and help you with your problems?
00:45:29.460How much more potent and confusing will that be?
00:45:33.640for all we hear about ai safety and how ai will potentially kill everybody and take all the jobs
00:45:40.260you don't tend to hear as much discussion about how ai is being designed to confuse everybody
00:45:47.640at a fundamental level you know you'll hear a lot about talk about the the different ai models
00:45:53.300but you won't hear much about ai interfaces which is to say how ais interact with humans
00:45:59.980But AI companies, including the biggest ones on the planet, are moving aggressively to make these interfaces as appealing and human-like and therefore deceptive as possible.
00:46:13.500And they're encouraging people to treat their AIs like real-life friends instead of tools.
00:46:20.380To that end, as Mary Morgan has pointed out, Instagram has introduced a chat with AI feature.
00:46:25.980And you can see some of the top suggestions there.
00:46:28.260They offer sexting bots, including divorced women in their 40s and stepsisters, promising sibling bond and no drama.
00:46:38.220There's also AI bots devoted to witchcraft, including master psychic Rachel, who identifies as the AI bot that reads your soul, not just your questions.
00:46:50.300Now, Meta is a two trillion dollar company.
00:46:53.340Their AI models, like the models of their competitors, are capable of completing useful
00:46:57.040tasks that make people's lives easier. That's supposed to be the whole point.
00:47:01.680But with features like this, Meta is making it very clear that their goal is something else
00:47:07.000entirely. They see AI as a way to exploit human loneliness and our instinct to anthropomorphize
00:47:13.880as much as possible, especially when we don't understand something. And that's a strategy that
00:47:19.700whatever you think of AI in general, it's going to exacerbate all of the antisocial trends that
00:47:26.020we're seeing in this country. These are trends that were not caused by AI or even smartphones.
00:47:31.420It's a decline that began decades before anyone ever had an internet connection.
00:47:36.320But now that AI is here, there's no question that left unchecked, the deep and intense
00:47:41.640isolation already felt by millions of people will become a permanent way of life.
00:47:47.220now it doesn't have to go that way you know we don't we don't have to end up living in a
00:47:53.580in a Joaquin Phoenix movie for all the AI doom and gloom such as the kind you've heard on the
00:48:00.460show today there's always the more optimistic vision of the future you know maybe people
00:48:05.220begin to discover that there's nothing on a phone or a computer that can truly replace a physical
00:48:11.120human existence lived in the physical world with physical interactions with other real physical
00:48:16.580people. Maybe a critical mass of Americans come to recognize that algorithms and chatbots simply
00:48:22.500cannot and will never serve as a sufficient replacement for the depth and meaning of human
00:48:29.800relationships. Maybe they realize that the very things that frustrate and scare them about human
00:48:35.320relationships, the fact that humans are unpredictable and they're prone to change and
00:48:38.820they have their own complex inner lives and they don't exist to cater to you and meet your every
00:48:44.060need every second of the day are precisely what make those relationships vibrant and real and
00:48:51.500indispensable. It's precisely why no AI, no matter how sophisticated, can ever be a true substitute.
00:49:01.280Maybe there'll be a mass awakening of this kind. Maybe human beings will revolt against the
00:49:06.940algorithm, rebel against the slop, throw their phones down in disgust, return to the real world
00:49:12.960with their arms open, ready to embrace existence