The Matt Walsh Show - October 28, 2026


Ep. 1864 - Governments Are Telling Citizens To Prepare For The Worst... Here's What You Need To Know

Ep. 1863 - California is So Unlivable That Families Making 300K Are Getting Government Assistance

Episode Stats


Length

54 minutes

Words per minute

153.6

Word count

8,415

Sentence count

430

Harmful content

Toxicity

12

sentences flagged

Hate speech

9

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:27.820 Well, the experts are unanimous. We are all doomed. You need to stock up on food, water,
00:00:35.280 gasoline, ammo as soon as possible. Pay $10,000 for a generator. Don't forget to build a solar
00:00:41.760 powered farmhouse somewhere far away from the city, just in case, you know, the fuel supply 1.00
00:00:45.420 completely runs out and or the Chinese detonate an EMP over your neighborhood or something like 0.96
00:00:50.740 that. These are all basic steps that you should be taking right now so that in the event of a 0.99
00:00:55.300 total catastrophe, you won't be overtaken by the inevitable zombie horde that results,
00:01:00.860 at least not right away. These are the kinds of messages that we have all been bombarded with,
00:01:06.780 I've been bombarded with over the past few days, as the algorithm has decided to confront me and
00:01:12.360 I think many of us with every imaginable doomsday scenario all at once. Now, on one level, this is
00:01:18.840 nothing new. There's always been a market for hysteria and paranoia. Fear is, as we know,
00:01:23.960 a lucrative industry. And now this market is bigger than ever thanks to amplification from
00:01:29.440 the various big tech platforms. If you interact with just one post on X about how, say, the UK
00:01:36.640 government is telling people to prepare for an emergency, as I did, then as I was, you will be
00:01:42.580 quickly overwhelmed with all of this kind of stuff. And this is what my feed looks like right
00:01:48.840 now, more or less. It's just full-on apocalyptic, nonstop. Every story is something along these
00:01:55.200 lines. Once you're swept up by the algorithm, it just floods you with a fire hose of doomslop.
00:02:03.540 And this is how the algorithm works, of course. You interact with one kind of piece of content,
00:02:07.200 and it just feeds you only that for weeks at a time. And as you can see, various governments,
00:02:13.860 as we are seeing on X, including America and the UK, are warning of an impending disaster,
00:02:20.880 the power grid's about to get wiped out, and so on. There's no way to see content like this
00:02:27.120 day after day and remain unaffected by it. Even if you're a rational person,
00:02:32.360 as I try to be on my good days anyway, it still gets in your head. None of us are immune.
00:02:38.820 You're either going to take the warning seriously or you're going to try to tune them out. But even
00:02:43.340 And then it's hard to ignore what you're hearing.
00:02:46.360 After all, if there's even a small chance
00:02:48.220 that some terrible calamity will occur,
00:02:51.180 then it's reasonable to make some basic preparations
00:02:53.520 like what we're being encouraged to do.
00:02:57.680 The cost-benefit ratio seems to favor a cautious approach.
00:03:02.440 On his show the other day, Dan Bongino,
00:03:04.740 the former deputy director of the FBI,
00:03:07.360 weighed in with a somewhat measured take on the issue.
00:03:11.400 I think a very measured take, actually. He didn't endorse any of the apocalyptic predictions, but he didn't dismiss them either. And instead, he encouraged his audience to prepare themselves for whatever's coming. And, you know, we should pay attention to this because he's not just a random person on X. So watch.
00:03:31.300 there have been um some warnings put out by the uk government and elsewhere
00:03:36.760 about 30 days of preparedness and have food ready and power you know i am a firm
00:03:45.940 committed believer in the don't hit the bed theory hit with an s in front of it in other words
00:03:52.580 we were young agents if you panicked on a security detail with the secret service you were out you
00:03:58.360 were you that was it they would never take you on a protection assignment again panic kills i have
00:04:03.680 never i was not in the military i haven't been in combat but ask your heroes who have been they will
00:04:08.700 tell you you you can't panic it i can't even imagine what that scenario is like however the
00:04:19.720 way to reduce anxiety and panic in in tumultuous times is to be prepared have yourself an emergency
00:04:27.240 radio have yourself some batteries get yourself some emergency food get yourself a rain collection
00:04:34.020 and water filtration some filtration tablets the best day of your life you don't need them and in
00:04:39.700 10 years you're like i wasted a thousand bucks or whatever and you throw it out the worst day
00:04:44.020 in your life is god forbid something were to happen the worst day of your life is your kids
00:04:49.840 are looking you in the face like hey dad mom you know where's the water and well we don't have any
00:04:55.180 There are plenty of credible commentators who are basically saying the same thing. They're saying that it feels a lot like February 2020 all over again, just before the COVID lockdowns began. Kind of has that feeling. And once again, it's an election year where the Trump administration is clearly vulnerable.
00:05:15.120 There's a threat of a new development that could fundamentally change the economy.
00:05:19.420 In this case, it's AI.
00:05:21.100 There are scattered reports of a pending crisis, but no one's sure how to verify any of it
00:05:26.100 or even what the nature of the potential crisis even is.
00:05:30.160 And in general, just like in 2020, there's a sense that we can't trust anything we're told.
00:05:35.340 None of the experts have any credibility whatsoever.
00:05:38.200 So what do you believe?
00:05:39.780 The problem is that since we're all buried in constant slop and propaganda, it's very difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff, the signal from the noise.
00:05:49.840 How do you identify which threats are real, if any of them are, and which threats are fabricated or exaggerated?
00:05:57.800 Is there a possibility that all of this hysteria is a psyop designed to demoralize voters, especially conservatives, right before an election?
00:06:05.400 your challenge is to separate what's a real risk versus doom slop and paranoia-driven panic and
00:06:13.700 social contagion. So what's needed, I think, is a blow-by-blow analysis of the leading theories for
00:06:21.920 why the apocalypse is approaching and what sort of apocalypse is approaching, if any.
00:06:28.220 So we need to go through each claim, try to make sense of it one way or the other. We have to
00:06:34.560 determine the credibility of as many of these claims as possible. And that's what we'll try to
00:06:39.080 do. Now, I have no special insight or sources here. I can't claim that I can definitively set
00:06:44.280 the record straight on any of this stuff. But I can try to use some basic common sense as far as
00:06:49.440 that goes. And that's what we will do today. So we'll start with an ultra viral post from an
00:06:55.540 account called Live Door News, which racked up more than 20 million views. And it says, quote,
00:07:02.820 Minister Hasono issues emergency requests to all citizens to prepare food, water, and toilet supplies.
00:07:09.860 The minister stated that on November 2nd, when the Disaster Prevention Agency is launched,
00:07:14.780 an emergency request will be issued to all citizens to prepare for disasters.
00:07:19.200 He mentioned that even without public assistance, citizens should prepare at least a minimum of three days' worth of food, toilet supplies, and water at home.
00:07:28.060 now because this post doesn't provide any context you can map whatever theory you want onto it
00:07:37.500 as a lot of people are doing um in truth what's happening though on november 2nd is that japan is
00:07:43.980 launching a new disaster prevention agency to deal primarily with earthquakes they are after all a
00:07:49.800 volcanic island in the middle of an ocean that regularly gets hit by tsunamis and they're
00:07:54.720 situated directly next door to a rogue nuclear state. And not to bring up a touchy subject,
00:07:59.760 but they have been hit with nukes before on two occasions. And therefore, Japan's government
00:08:05.080 routinely issues guidance like this, telling people to prepare for disasters. In fact,
00:08:08.720 every year since 1960, Japan has held a disaster prevention day where millions of people perform
00:08:14.900 synchronized evacuation drills. So this has been going on for a very long time. And they began
00:08:19.560 tradition on the anniversary of the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake, which destroyed nearly 400,000
00:08:25.800 homes in Tokyo. On disaster prevention day, government officials wear jumpsuits. Kids put
00:08:32.360 on fireproof hoods in school. It's part of the culture, and they issue plenty of guidance,
00:08:39.380 and they hold many other drills on top of this. A decade ago, after a major earthquake and tsunami,
00:08:44.660 Japan formally implemented a policy where people need at least three days, and ideally seven days,
00:08:49.560 worth of supplies in case of another earthquake. And before that, the three-day standard was the
00:08:55.000 norm, and now it's just kind of the baseline. So this is how disaster management works in Japan.
00:09:00.880 They've been issuing new guidance on preparing for disasters for a century. It's nothing new.
00:09:07.120 But when you remove all the context and you combine it with other reports,
00:09:12.540 it's easy for hysteria to take over. For the account Live Door News, this all works out.
00:09:18.800 They get a ton of money from ad revenue because so many people clicked on their story, like I did, which was deliberately misleading.
00:09:26.760 And the problem with the incentives created by the algorithm is that it inspires copycats, lots of them.
00:09:33.360 So another round of viral posts were created in which large accounts warned that various other governments around the world were telling their citizens to prepare for some unspecified apocalyptic scenario.
00:09:46.520 And so now, through the algorithm and through people's imagination, you're connecting all these threads. Japan with this country with this country. What's going on? One viral report mentions that the UK government is involved in this. And once again, some of the posts were more accurate than others.
00:10:04.580 Polymarket, for example, published the following warning that was seen by nearly a million people,
00:10:10.060 quote, breaking. UK government urges citizens to stockpile at least three days of emergency
00:10:15.380 food and water amid the global cybersecurity crisis. Now, Polymarket, of course, is a gambling
00:10:23.140 platform. But lately, as you might have noticed, especially if you spend any time on X,
00:10:27.180 they pop up a lot with non-gambling related content. They're getting into the business
00:10:34.280 of posting breaking news, which seems kind of weird. It seems like a strange pivot,
00:10:38.800 but it's actually a very smart marketing strategy. One way to ensure that your brand
00:10:44.080 is always showing up in people's feeds is to post some splashy headline about current events.
00:10:49.640 It also helps push the idea that Polymarket is a prediction market, a tool for serious policy
00:10:55.080 analysts, and not just another betting website, which is what it is. Meanwhile, the account
00:11:01.440 Unusual Whales, which normally focuses on noteworthy trades in the stock market, especially
00:11:06.060 by insiders like Nancy Pelosi, weighed in on the situation as well. They posted this message,
00:11:11.000 which was seen by millions of people, quote, breaking. UK government has requested that
00:11:16.060 citizens stockpile canned food and drinking water for at least three days, per BBC.
00:11:21.380 so and one thing you know of course we've seen on uh social media for a long time especially on x
00:11:27.360 is that the the word breaking is just has lost all meaning so you'll have an account that posts
00:11:32.700 breaking and then it's information that has already been reported for three days by a million
00:11:37.560 other accounts so not exactly breaking news but anyway they cite a source the bbc and uh we're
00:11:43.400 now led to believe that the uk state broadcaster is making this problem proclamation other accounts
00:11:50.840 didn't bother with the attribution. Here's a post by a guy named Ethan Levins, for example.
00:11:56.020 It racked up nearly 2 million views as well. Quote, something very bad is brewing in Europe.
00:12:01.300 UK advising citizens to stockpile food, German hospitals prepping for mass casualty events,
00:12:07.040 and German troops moving towards Lithuania. This is not normal. NATO is preparing to fight Russia.
00:12:13.740 This has to stop. So you notice also, you know, various different explanations being offered by
00:12:19.860 these random posts. The poly market mentioned cybersecurity. This guy is saying, oh, it's
00:12:25.760 Russia. Then there's this post from the account Watcher Guru, which also received millions
00:12:31.560 of views. Quote, just then, UK government urges citizens to stockpile three days of emergency
00:12:36.500 food and water due to growing cyber attack threats. Okay, now we're back to cyber attack.
00:12:41.860 And there's many more posts like this. And then several of them, unlike the warnings about Japan,
00:12:45.560 are actually legitimate there has been a change in the uk's messaging on preparing for disasters
00:12:51.980 a month ago for example this was the kind of content that the state broadcaster was producing
00:12:57.280 on the topic watch stock up on food for extreme weather that's what the uk government says we
00:13:03.780 should be doing because climate change is making food supplies more unpredictable but what food
00:13:08.860 should you be buying you should keep some healthy options at the back of your cupboards things like
00:13:13.380 whole grain cereals crackers pasta and oats for protein you can stock up on things like lentils
00:13:20.660 or tinned pulses whilst canned fish like tuna or mackerel is also a really good option you might be
00:13:27.060 surprised to hear that fruit in a tin is actually quite nutritious as are pickled eggs and vegetables
00:13:34.180 but there are some things to avoid things tinned in brine or syrup instant noodles and processed
00:13:41.220 meats such as corned beef or hot dogs which provide extra salt sugar and saturated fats that we don't
00:13:47.540 need in our diets and if you're worried about these foods lacking flavor be sure to keep some
00:13:52.740 herbs and spices around for extra seasoning that needs to be said not to get too uh you know into
00:13:59.220 the into the technicality into the weeds too much but this is utterly horrible advice on many levels
00:14:05.700 she says that in an emergency when the world is ending you don't want to eat instant noodles or
00:14:10.180 or hot dogs, not because they might be difficult to prepare, but because they have saturated fats
00:14:15.600 that are bad for your diet. Now, personally, when I'm experiencing the apocalypse,
00:14:20.120 I'm not worried about having saturated fat in my diet. When there's a nuclear bomb falling
00:14:25.620 in my neighborhood, saturated fat is really the least of my worries. I'm also not going to be
00:14:31.040 obsessing about cholesterol or salt intake. What I want above all is to have food,
00:14:36.260 preferably food that doesn't taste terrible, that contains a lot of calories in a very small
00:14:42.780 package. Hot dogs are a pretty good option in that regard, but she wants everyone eating lentils
00:14:48.620 instead, which is a good way to make people even more depressed than they already are in this
00:14:52.600 scenario. All of your friends are dead. The world's falling apart. Climate change, zombies, AI, robots,
00:15:00.660 everything's happening. And on top of that, you're stuck eating lentils because you threw away all
00:15:05.680 the hot dogs because you listen to the BBC. I mean, what's the point of staying alive in that
00:15:10.520 scenario? It creates kind of a paradox. You know, if there's a nuclear holocaust and you're safely
00:15:15.880 hidden away in your bunker and all you have to eat are healthy vegetarian options, then why
00:15:23.060 exactly would you want to survive the nuclear holocaust in the first place? Like I'd prefer to
00:15:28.500 be incinerated and just get it over with. Well, she never grapples with this paradox, but she does
00:15:34.080 explain helpfully enough that she's offering this advice on behalf of the state broadcaster because
00:15:39.060 of the threat of climate change. Now, everybody watching this video knows this is a pretext. Even
00:15:44.180 in the UK, the climate scam is played out. The real point of the video was to get people ready
00:15:49.360 for another emergency that the British government might think is likely, although they don't want
00:15:54.820 to say it out loud. And to that end, within the last month, the British government launched a
00:16:00.900 more comprehensive Be Ready campaign, which dropped the climate change rhetoric for the most
00:16:06.360 part. This is a three-year campaign that they're committing to where the British government is
00:16:11.460 partnering with hundreds of organizations and agencies. They also published this website just
00:16:16.420 a few days ago. You can see it on your screen there. The website reads, here are some simple
00:16:21.100 effective steps you can take to be ready for emergencies and the disruption they cause. Many
00:16:25.820 these activities can be helpful across a range of different types of emergency. And some of the
00:16:31.740 activities include having enough bottled water for three days. They estimate three liters per
00:16:36.580 person per day, plus non-perishable food for three days, along with a torch, which I believe
00:16:42.280 is a flashlight, although you can never underestimate how primitive the UK is, plus a battery-powered
00:16:48.220 FM radio and cash in case electronic payments or ATMs are disruptive. And you also need baby
00:16:54.400 formula, pet food, et cetera. Now, this is much more general advice than the climate change
00:17:00.420 guidance, and it's getting the attention of millions of people in the UK. This is reporting
00:17:05.780 from the British outlet LBC, quote, bottled water, baked beans, and batteries are selling out at some
00:17:11.720 supermarkets after Britons were urged to prepare for short-term disruption to essential services.
00:17:17.520 The rush follows the launch of the government's Be Ready campaign, which advises households to keep
00:17:22.680 a three-day supply of long-life food, drinking water, and basic emergency equipment at home.
00:17:29.000 Shoppers using avocado found several essentials unavailable shortly after the announcement,
00:17:33.720 including bottled water, batteries, and baked beans. Some soup ranges were also listed as out
00:17:39.340 of stock alongside brands of bottled water. So they got everyone's attention. This is obviously
00:17:46.520 a situation that most people in Britain recognize as out of the ordinary. But according to British
00:17:51.260 government officials, including their security minister, the point of the campaign is just to
00:17:55.960 bring the UK in line with other countries in Europe. Watch. Now, our research shows that just
00:18:02.640 13% of people in the UK feel that they're prepared for an emergency, like a severe storm,
00:18:08.540 that could cut them off from the services they rely on. This figure is far lower than our European
00:18:14.460 neighbors. The very same research showed that 84% of people in the UK want the government to share
00:18:20.820 more information about the steps they can take to increase their preparedness.
00:18:25.660 So Mr Speaker, to give some credit to the Opposition, they also recognised this resilience
00:18:30.320 gap while in Government and launched a new website to share preparedness guidance with
00:18:36.040 the public.
00:18:37.420 But that website stopped short of a proper campaign, not enough people noticed it and
00:18:42.260 those who did found the guidance hard to follow.
00:18:45.860 government is committed to having an honest conversation with the public about the risks
00:18:51.140 that we face and helping them to prepare household by household step by step to improve our national
00:18:58.820 resilience to that effect we've published updated preparedness guidance for households and launched
00:19:05.940 a three-year campaign to raise awareness of the simple steps people can take to be ready for
00:19:12.580 everyday emergencies now i want to be clear from the outset that we are not launching this campaign
00:19:19.060 because of any specific or imminent threat instead launching this campaign brings the uk into line
00:19:26.660 with almost every single european country and countless others around the world who already run
00:19:33.780 similar campaigns every year now it's true that other countries in europe have emergency plans
00:19:39.060 that they expect people to follow,
00:19:40.760 although most of them don't tell their citizens
00:19:43.760 to hoard cash in case the electrical grid fails.
00:19:47.700 What's unique about the UK's approach
00:19:49.120 is that it's a massive three-year blitz
00:19:51.500 that seemingly came out of nowhere
00:19:53.360 without any clear articulated justification.
00:19:58.580 The British government began issuing
00:19:59.800 general household emergency guidance in 2024,
00:20:02.380 but this is a much more developed program.
00:20:04.820 So they went from zero to 60 very quickly.
00:20:09.060 And that raises the obvious question of why now?
00:20:12.580 Why are we now concerned about all of these other threats
00:20:16.100 when they were telling us about climate change
00:20:18.640 and telling us that was the real issue just a few weeks ago?
00:20:23.400 Whatever your bias may be, you have to ask,
00:20:26.580 does this have something to do with the fact
00:20:28.420 that the United States military is also simultaneously preparing
00:20:32.740 for a worst case scenario where our basic,
00:20:35.860 you know, where our military bases are cut off from essential services, including power.
00:20:41.540 It's a very similar scenario that they're preparing for. Watch.
00:20:46.300 The Pentagon preparing for a nightmare scenario, a global war that could knock out power grids,
00:20:51.360 cripple supply chains, and leave military bases cut off from essential services.
00:20:55.960 Chief National Security Correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports live in Washington. 0.98
00:20:59.760 This is getting a lot of play online, Jennifer.
00:21:01.600 AMNA NAWAZ- That's right, John. Well, the Pentagon has a doomsday plane,
00:21:05.280 and now it's updating its doomsday plan, moving beyond its Cold War-era continuity of government
00:21:10.960 planning, which called for key military leaders to retreat to hardened facilities in Cheyenne
00:21:16.400 Mountain in the event of an incoming nuclear attack. Now the Pentagon sees a new nightmare
00:21:21.760 scenario, a global war that knocks out America's power grids, cripples supply chains, and leaves
00:21:27.760 U.S. military bases cut off from essential services.
00:21:31.640 Other allies, including the U.K., have been warning their populations to stockpile 90 days of food and water just in case.
00:21:39.460 Under the new Pentagon initiative called Fortress, every major military installation in the continental U.S.
00:21:45.780 would be expected to operate independently for at least 90 days with its own electricity, water, fuel and communications.
00:21:53.540 Documents obtained by Fox reveal plans for portable nuclear reactors, backup power grids, and massive reserves of ammunition, critical minerals, medical supplies, and spare parts.
00:22:06.020 The Pentagon also wants civilian factories ready to switch to wartime weapons production, alternative supply chains in place if foreign suppliers are cut off, and military communications capable of functioning even if GPS and satellites are disrupted.
00:22:21.500 Now, the question is not, why do we need our military bases to survive for 90 days without outside support, including power, grid access, fuel, and communications? You can think of plenty of reasons for that kind of preparation. That makes sense.
00:22:36.080 The question is, why is all this preparation happening at this particular moment across several different countries all at once? What kind of cyber attack or nuclear attack are they worried about exactly?
00:22:51.500 or is it something else?
00:22:53.940 Now, it's worth noting that the UK
00:22:55.280 isn't simply telling its citizens
00:22:56.820 to prepare for a worst-case scenario.
00:22:59.340 There are signs that their military
00:23:00.840 is taking action as well.
00:23:03.040 This is from the Times in London, quote,
00:23:06.200 three of Britain's four nuclear deterrent submarines
00:23:08.340 are out at sea in an unusual situation.
00:23:11.480 It's been at least five years since this happened,
00:23:14.080 according to former naval source.
00:23:17.240 Now, this is from Sky News,
00:23:18.700 which followed up on that report.
00:23:21.080 And here's what they say.
00:23:22.520 There were some posts on social media.
00:23:24.600 You have people that sort of stand outside Fas Lane where we have our nuclear deterrent
00:23:30.820 submarines and can sort of see them moving in and out.
00:23:33.860 And there was observations that three of the four nuclear deterrent submarines are at sea.
00:23:39.700 And that is correct.
00:23:41.180 The Times first reported this.
00:23:44.240 But it is very unusual to have three submarines out at once.
00:23:47.920 Like, you know, one, of course, is going to be part of the continuous at sea deterrents. So we have one ballistic missile armed nuclear warhead carrying submarine that is at sea all the time, at any time, ready to fire if needed. It is the UK's ultimate security guarantee and also obviously part of the NATO umbrella.
00:24:09.000 but the other two boats you know the ministry of defense is not commenting as to why but it does
00:24:14.720 seem as though it's more a sign of improved availability than any kind of response to any
00:24:22.120 threat because any movement in our nuclear deterrent submarines could be seen as some
00:24:26.980 kind of signaling it will definitely be noticed by the UK's enemies but it would seem as though
00:24:33.420 most likely one of these other boats is working up, ready to go on operations, and the other one
00:24:40.360 most likely undergoing sea trials to be able to be ready to replace that boat when it comes back
00:24:46.960 in due course. So by itself, this doesn't necessarily mean anything. Apparently, several
00:24:52.060 of these ships have had maintenance issues for many years, and they're now back in service all
00:24:56.740 at once. So, you know, maybe the timing is purely coincidental. And to be clear, you know, to be
00:25:02.860 fair, there are plenty of people who are stringing together various misleading claims to make it seem
00:25:08.020 like other countries are doing the same thing. For example, I've seen people claim that Germany
00:25:12.440 is suddenly investing in bunkers this week, when in reality, they've been doing that for more than
00:25:17.020 a year. Again, there's a lot of deception going around, a lot of maybe disconnected things that
00:25:22.960 are being tied together. And there's a lot of people that are trying to terrorize you
00:25:28.320 for various different reasons, sometimes for reasons as simple as it gets them clicks.
00:25:36.340 Along those lines, I came across this report from Reuters yesterday, quote,
00:25:40.780 breaking a hacker is attempting to breach the U.S. Federal Election Commission systems,
00:25:44.880 and that agency has had to temporarily shut down its web-facing services as a result,
00:25:50.000 according to an email seen by Reuters. Now, it sounds pretty bad. And again,
00:25:55.700 you're getting this in the midst of all this other stuff. So it just feels like, you know,
00:25:59.160 the sky is falling. But then you realize that the FEC doesn't actually count ballots or handle
00:26:05.260 election returns. They track campaign donations mostly. So there's no indication here that
00:26:10.680 anything sensitive may have been compromised or deleted or who might have been behind this attack.
00:26:16.480 But seeing this headline, plenty of people came to the conclusion that the election is already
00:26:20.560 compromised, which is not supported by this report. What is supported is that very soon,
00:26:27.240 the Middle East is going to become a much bigger problem. This is from the Wall Street Journal
00:26:32.420 late last night, quote, the U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short,
00:26:37.720 intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections. People briefed on the conversation
00:26:42.260 said the communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of
00:26:47.300 indications. The U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations
00:26:52.700 against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran's strength and pushing it
00:26:58.620 towards negotiations. The U.S. military is bringing in a patriot system from Texas to beef up its
00:27:03.720 missile defenses and has moved troops off bases where they were vulnerable in preparation for an
00:27:07.860 escalation, officials familiar with those moves said. Now, I'm not sure why we're bothering to
00:27:14.860 wait until after the midterms at this point. It's not as if voters are under the impression as they
00:27:19.620 head to the polls that the war in Iran is over. We've gone through about 30 different ceasefire
00:27:24.440 agreements at this point. We've had about 30 different mission accomplished moments.
00:27:31.160 And for many voters, the reason they have abandoned this administration is precisely
00:27:35.940 because of the war in Iran. So it doesn't seem logical to pretend it's not happening
00:27:39.940 and to delay these attacks until after the midterms as a result.
00:27:44.320 There's a strange assumption that once you finish your workday,
00:27:47.440 you're supposed to be able to relax, which is a nice idea,
00:27:50.040 except that if you have children, you know,
00:27:52.180 getting home from work is often when the second shift begins.
00:27:55.060 There are kids to feed, homework to deal with, activities to get to,
00:27:58.580 and approximately 17 other things that need your attention
00:28:01.020 before anybody is going to bed.
00:28:02.760 Problem is that your family doesn't particularly care
00:28:04.740 if you've already had a long day at work, they still need you.
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00:30:26.680 So, in any event, especially as I read that report from the Wall Street Journal, I'm personally not that worried about nuclear war. I don't think Iran has the capability to nuke the United States at this point. I don't think any other country is going to do so either, at least in the foreseeable future.
00:30:47.600 I could obviously be wrong about that, but the disincentives that have prevented global nuclear annihilation up to this point would seem to still hold. I see no reason why they wouldn't, although anything is possible, I suppose. We certainly can't dismiss any possibility.
00:31:05.200 Cyber attacks, on the other hand, seem like a much more legitimate risk.
00:31:11.540 And that's something that pops up in a lot of these scary stories we're hearing, especially
00:31:16.720 since AI apparently has the capability of launching these attacks on its own without
00:31:21.300 any instruction from a human.
00:31:23.760 So how close are we to AI that can hack into literally anything with ease?
00:31:29.320 How many months or weeks could it take for an AI to bring down the internet or, you know,
00:31:34.200 or render it unusable for human beings.
00:31:37.020 To me, these are the catastrophic scenarios
00:31:39.060 that are worth taking seriously.
00:31:41.060 And the weird thing is that it seems like, you know,
00:31:43.260 some people are freaking out about that
00:31:45.720 and kind of everyone else is not remotely worried at all.
00:31:50.900 But if you are worried about it
00:31:52.220 and you engage with any kind of content at all about it,
00:31:57.000 well, then again, the algorithm
00:31:58.080 will just pour it on you by the gallon.
00:32:00.680 And so very quickly, reasonable concerns
00:32:03.980 turns turn into hysterical panicking. It's just kind of a bizarre and unsettling state of affairs,
00:32:09.680 no matter how you look at it or how it turns out. But if you try to tune out the panic and focus on
00:32:16.200 what we do know, it does appear that things are careening out of control. This is a report from
00:32:23.320 Axios, quote, major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents operating
00:32:29.100 inside customer accounts, with some agents attempting to take actions that appear to be
00:32:34.140 independent of user instructions, sources tell Axios. AI agents are becoming a nightmare for
00:32:40.240 America's banks, making their way into banking systems faster than financial institutions can
00:32:44.620 respond. The difficulty in distinguishing between a human and unauthorized bot is forcing banks to
00:32:50.380 block the technology and rapidly rewrite their terms of service. Banks including Morgan Stanley,
00:32:55.260 Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and others are racing to contain agent risks. Some
00:33:01.000 are aware of unauthorized access. Bank executives describe the situation as horrifying, with one
00:33:06.960 official saying the industry has grave concerns about agents gaining access to customer accounts
00:33:11.780 and taking steps that could impact user finances. Now, they clarify in that report
00:33:18.700 that many customers, for reasons no one will ever understand, have voluntarily given AI agents
00:33:25.980 access to their bank accounts. I have no idea why you would ever do that, but that's what people
00:33:33.900 have done. But at the same time, they also established that there's a risk of an AI intrusion
00:33:38.560 into the banks that to some extent is already happening. And you have to wonder how long is it
00:33:47.340 until AI start gaining access to millions of people's bank accounts without any authorization
00:33:52.600 whatsoever. Now, it's probably not as hard as you might think. If someone is determined to gain
00:33:58.720 access to your bank account, they can bombard customer service representatives 24-7 until one
00:34:04.020 of them finally cracks. They can search through various data breaches and find your personal
00:34:09.580 information. AI, by the way, makes that a lot easier. There's a lot of information about you
00:34:16.200 that's out there through data breaches, but you're basically safe because no one has the time to go
00:34:22.740 find it because there's just so much of it. AI makes it a lot easier for someone to go find that
00:34:29.460 sort of stuff. And these are the more immediate sort of practical risks that it poses. It could
00:34:36.420 get a lot worse than that. And even if that doesn't work, AI can probably steal your personal
00:34:41.560 information through websites that it compromises. This is reporting from Fox, quote,
00:34:45.580 a pair of recently disclosed computer software vulnerabilities could put millions of websites
00:34:50.480 and the personal information of everybody who uses them at risk from hackers. Researchers last week
00:34:55.880 announced they had used AI to help discover two vulnerabilities in a programming language known
00:35:01.040 as PHP, which underpins large sections of the internet. An estimated 70% of the internet uses
00:35:06.560 PHP in some form, meaning most websites are impacted. Now, I'm not going to pretend to be
00:35:12.580 a computer security expert, but it stands to reason that 10 years ago, vulnerabilities like
00:35:17.700 this would have been much harder to exploit at scale. With AI, new vulnerabilities are being
00:35:23.040 discovered every day, and they can be exploited instantly by thousands of AI agents working
00:35:30.020 around the clock all at once. Now, I understand the arguments about regulatory capture and how
00:35:37.440 AI companies are certainly not trustworthy actors. But at the same time, we cannot ignore the fact
00:35:43.500 that they are now warning us, the companies themselves, about all of this. Here's an article
00:35:50.080 from TechRadar, for example, quote, as AI firm Anthropic gears up for an enormous $2 trillion
00:35:55.520 initial public offering, IPO, could be the largest in stock market history, the company has just
00:36:01.600 warned that AI could pose catastrophic or existential risk to humanity. In papers filed
00:36:07.540 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Anthropic outlines some of the risks facing the
00:36:13.040 company and its investors. One of the more startling sections of the document outlines
00:36:17.640 how Anthropic's AI models could accelerate beyond anyone's ability to evaluate and safeguard them
00:36:23.080 and pose catastrophic or existential risk to humanity, particularly if such systems were
00:36:28.400 misused, replicated, weaponized, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy. Aside
00:36:33.780 from the obvious danger posed to humanity, Anthropic is also apparently worried that
00:36:37.640 such an outcome could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of
00:36:42.380 operations. Yes, I mean, it might destroy humanity, but the bigger concern, Anthropic says, is that
00:36:49.600 it could affect their business too. Now, hearing this, even as Anthropic is in the middle of
00:36:55.560 creating technology that they know is going to destroy thousands of businesses, but we should
00:37:00.560 be worried about theirs. Anyway, hearing this, maybe you'll say, well, Anthropic is run by
00:37:07.020 anti-white left-wingers who have a long history of exaggerating their capabilities and the 1.00
00:37:12.300 capabilities of their products, and that's all true. But it would be simply foolish to assume 0.95
00:37:18.340 that these kinds of warnings from the actual companies who are creating this technology
00:37:23.580 should not be taken seriously at all. That would be foolish. There is no precedent 0.98
00:37:31.400 for this exactly, no matter how you slice it. Now, sure, companies like to exaggerate how
00:37:37.240 powerful their products are. That's always happened. But we have never, not ever, had
00:37:45.120 major corporations in a particular industry all agreeing unanimously that their product
00:37:52.540 that they are making poses a catastrophic threat to mankind. That has never happened.
00:37:59.900 I defy anyone to come up with another example of this sort of thing, of an industry making a
00:38:06.120 product, and then all the major players in that industry turning around and telling the public
00:38:11.300 this thing we're making could really hurt you. That doesn't happen. So we're in unprecedented
00:38:18.680 territory, you know, no matter how you look at it, which means that any attempt to explain this
00:38:23.380 away using historical frameworks or analogies like regulatory capture or marketing ploys
00:38:29.740 just doesn't exactly hold up, or at least it might not hold up. And, you know, we shouldn't
00:38:36.520 take what these companies are saying as gospel. That would be quite stupid, but it would be just 0.99
00:38:41.720 as stupid, if not considerably more stupid, to simply assume out of hand that a technology is 1.00
00:38:49.080 not dangerous, even when the people making the technology are telling us directly and explicitly 1.00
00:38:54.740 that it is. And if you listen to other major players in AI, people like Elon Musk, who is
00:39:00.780 not an anti-white left-winger, you're hearing something very similar. Watch.
00:39:05.880 In five years, we'll have probably, so five years being, say, 2031, I think digital intelligence will exceed the sum of all human intelligence.
00:39:21.780 That there will be, in five years, probably, there might be, let's say, at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.
00:39:35.880 yeah
00:39:40.040 all right the let me and and and i i i would predict that the economy is probably
00:39:48.160 twice its current size in five maybe six years seven five to seven years um because you're
00:40:02.060 going to hit a doubling period you know where it's where the economic output is increasing so
00:40:07.740 so fast uh that you know plus minus a few years you're you will see giant changes so you might
00:40:14.700 only have three years left according to elon to make money selling your labor and he promises a
00:40:19.020 much brighter future as a result but you know of course you can't guarantee that uh there's no
00:40:23.760 predicting what will happen when the economy is transformed like this if that happens even if the
00:40:29.420 transformation is 10% of what he's describing. And that's not even getting into the fact that
00:40:34.100 in the best case scenario he's talking about, everybody will basically be on welfare.
00:40:40.780 No one's doing anything. We're all just dependent on our AI paychecks. So even the optimistic
00:40:47.280 predictions for AI, predictions from people who know what they're talking about, like Elon,
00:40:51.540 still involves a sudden, extreme, totally unprecedented, extraordinary, radical shift
00:40:59.220 in the way that human societies function.
00:41:03.080 And any shift of that kind, when it is radical, extreme, and sudden,
00:41:07.540 will be tumultuous and difficult and carry with it huge risks, both foreseeable and unforeseeable.
00:41:15.020 That is unavoidable.
00:41:16.560 You cannot radically and suddenly transform human society without it being, at a minimum,
00:41:24.240 extremely tumultuous. Even if it all works out for the best in the long run, which is far from
00:41:29.320 guaranteed, the path to get there is likely to be profoundly turbulent. And even the optimists,
00:41:38.420 again, I'm talking about the optimistic case here, will admit that. Between work, errands,
00:41:43.820 and family, we're all busy. And with elections around the corner, it can be hard to find time
00:41:47.980 to vote. Waiting until election day is a risk. A flat tire or a sick child could mean you miss out
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00:42:08.660 The radical left has won Democrat primaries across the country, and their turnout machine
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00:43:33.640 But there is one silver lining,
00:43:35.380 and because this show has been maybe depressing so far
00:43:38.900 as a change of pace, we'll mention this.
00:43:42.440 The good news is that if AI takes everybody's jobs,
00:43:44.780 then it's going to take down a lot of adult daycares
00:43:47.020 in Silicon Valley as well.
00:43:48.720 Yesterday, we talked about how Microsoft offered buyouts
00:43:51.200 to 25% of its workforce ahead of massive layoffs that are expected. But upon reflection, 25% appears
00:43:57.180 to be a very low number. When you take a look at what these Microsoft employees do all day,
00:44:01.780 it quickly becomes clear that AI simply cannot replace jobs in Silicon Valley quickly enough,
00:44:07.180 at least in their case. To be clear, these Microsoft employees are not simply phoning it in.
00:44:11.820 They're also uploading day-in-the-life videos on Instagram where they brag about how little they
00:44:16.480 work and how many perks they get, like coffee and ice cream. Watch.
00:44:46.480 do
00:44:52.880 you
00:45:04.580 you
00:45:08.740 or
00:45:33.860 so
00:45:38.740 it's amazing they could even be you know bothered with voluntary buyouts when their employees are
00:45:49.520 posting videos like this on social media you should just fire everyone who records themselves
00:45:55.660 treating the office like a resort that's not difficult you could probably cut 50% of the
00:46:01.620 workforce basis based solely on these videos here's another
00:46:04.240 We'll be right back.
00:46:34.240 hello
00:47:04.240 so doing work at microsoft seems to involve you know writing a few random words on a whiteboard
00:47:12.240 before going back to your catered lunch or playing squash or rock climbing or whatever
00:47:16.420 you can spend all day going through these kinds of videos and trust me there are a lot of them
00:47:20.360 but you get the point it's reminiscent of the day in the life videos that twitter employees
00:47:24.460 would record before elon took over and fired all them there's no question that there are a lot of
00:47:29.140 fake jobs in this country. And if AI got rid of the fake ones, it wouldn't be the worst thing in
00:47:34.960 the world. But as for the rest of the economy, people actually produce something of value.
00:47:39.900 There is indeed some cause for alarm, to put it mildly, about what's coming next. So
00:47:46.540 in summary, some of these terrifying doomsday stories are probably not worth taking seriously.
00:47:53.860 Some, on the other hand, might be
00:47:57.160 You probably were hoping that the moral of the story
00:48:01.700 Would be slightly more reassuring
00:48:03.180 You were hoping that we would just go through
00:48:05.500 And debunk all the stuff and say
00:48:06.820 Everything's fine, don't worry 1.00
00:48:07.920 Nothing to worry about, these people are dumb 0.99
00:48:10.040 But it's not quite that simple 1.00
00:48:13.320 And blithe, baseless reassurance
00:48:15.640 Is just as irresponsible as apocalyptic fear-mongering
00:48:19.480 So, you know, I'm trying not to fall into either trap here
00:48:23.040 The most reassuring thing I can say, and this only goes so far, admittedly, but it's not for nothing,
00:48:29.080 is that no matter what potential catastrophes may lurk somewhere out there on some possible horizon,
00:48:35.560 there's nothing to be gained from obsessively worrying about them
00:48:38.660 or spending all your time and mental energy marinating in anxiety over them
00:48:45.060 as the click farmers and the algorithm that puts their slop in front of you want you to.
00:48:49.520 the story of humanity is a series of disasters and calamities spaced out by periods of relative
00:48:58.640 stability. That pattern has not changed. It never will. The best thing you can do is accept that
00:49:06.460 fact for what it is. Don't let it take up an inordinate amount of mental and emotional real
00:49:10.940 estate and stay prepared within reason. It's probably a good idea to bring us back to the
00:49:17.840 beginning and some of what Dan Bongino said and others are saying, it's probably a good idea to
00:49:23.400 think about how long your family could comfortably survive if, let's say, the power grid went down
00:49:30.560 or the internet was shut off. The answer for most people in the modern world, I imagine,
00:49:36.160 is that they would comfortably survive for about 45 minutes and physically survive not much longer
00:49:41.620 than that. And this is part of what makes the doomsday slop propaganda on social media
00:49:46.540 so powerful and unsettling, aside from how relentless and all-encompassing and ubiquitous
00:49:52.640 it is. But the other thing is that maybe at a deeper level, many of us recognize just how
00:50:01.940 vulnerable and helpless we actually are. So we have a special sensitivity to this kind of thing
00:50:09.220 because we realize that our lives are very precarious. I mean, life is always precarious
00:50:13.820 in a sense, but modern life in particular, it's dependent on so many things working perfectly all
00:50:21.440 the time. And so many things that we don't even understand or know how to fix or work ourselves,
00:50:27.200 and it just needs to all kind of work. And if it doesn't, then we're in a lot of trouble.
00:50:32.620 Everything is fine and our lives are comparatively easy so long as we are attached to the umbilical
00:50:37.420 cord of electricity and the internet and GPS. Well, if you lose any or all of those, and if you
00:50:45.700 lose the first one, you lose the rest for any extended period of time and we'll be like infants
00:50:51.300 left in a crib. So it's reasonable and smart and responsible to take enough precautions and make
00:50:59.220 enough preparations that you could survive, perhaps not comfortably or as comfortably,
00:51:04.640 but survive nonetheless in a scenario where these things are severed or inaccessible for a time.
00:51:12.460 I'm not saying that will happen, but it's a good idea to be in a position where if it did,
00:51:19.660 you would be able to make it through. That's just a good idea in general. Even without any war
00:51:26.440 overseas or any nuclear armed adversaries or any rogue AI agents prowling the internet,
00:51:31.560 But still, it would be a good idea.
00:51:34.800 With all of those threats actually present, and they are, it seems foolish to not be prepared in this way.
00:51:42.980 And then once you are prepared, as prepared as you can be, then the only thing left to do is, you know, go live your life.
00:51:52.660 What else can you do?
00:51:53.460 Now, one thing to keep in mind is that mass hysteria, or at least people being very worried about something, particularly on platforms like X, is often wrong.
00:52:08.500 But when it's right, it beats the mainstream narrative by several weeks or even months.
00:52:15.260 And that's what happened with COVID.
00:52:17.940 And that's one of the reasons why people are saying now is that's kind of a February 2020 vibe to it.
00:52:23.460 and what do they mean when they say that? Well, what they mean is that people who were chronically
00:52:28.840 on Twitter were way ahead of normal people and of the mainstream media in anticipating COVID and
00:52:36.180 the lockdowns, and we can't overlook the possibility that with just a few days to go
00:52:42.880 until the midterms, you know, as several countries begin preparing for a massive catastrophe of some
00:52:47.100 kind, they could be right again. And that's reason, again, not to be scared or panicked,
00:52:54.400 but simply prepared. That'll do it for the show today. Thanks for watching. Thanks for
00:52:59.380 listening. Talk to you tomorrow. Have a great day. Godspeed.
00:53:17.100 Professor.
00:53:47.100 Let me out!
00:53:50.100 You will remember your duty.
00:53:52.100 This isn't heroism! 1.00
00:53:54.100 You useless sot. 1.00
00:53:55.100 You sit there and shake because you're dependent on drink. 1.00
00:53:58.100 Your sick is all over you.
00:54:01.100 Have you ever seen a child starved to death, Professor? 1.00
00:54:06.100 No.
00:54:07.100 I have.
00:54:17.100 Thank you.