00:00:00.000I am now live, people. Sorry to all of you for being late. I just had to grab a few things, and it's one of those issues where you realize you didn't eat all day, and you should probably eat something before you go do a live stream until potentially the morning.
00:00:15.920But yeah, thanks for everyone for showing up.
00:00:18.540We'll be doing the sort of by-election vote tracking as we go here in the three ridings.
00:00:24.800North Vancouver, Capilano, Chiquitimi, Le Fjord, and as well as Beaches, East York.
00:00:31.260Now, I'm just going to clear away the first super chat.
00:00:33.700King Odie and old man Milo says for $2, thank you.
00:00:37.620I just hope the Liberals do worse tonight.
00:00:39.640And that is absolutely the theme of this video, King Odie.
00:00:43.000you are right, because the whole point tonight, the conservatives are not going to be winning
00:00:47.800these seats in the sense that Chikatimi was a conservative held seat before Richard Martel
00:00:54.660stepped down. The problem is how many people want to show up and vote for the same party
00:00:59.360to put somebody in when the last guy just resigned for no reason. It's one of those
00:01:03.120hard sells. Pretty much unless your guy has a really good reason for stepping down, it
00:01:07.800tends to hurt their successor when they run for the same riding in the by-election and that's
00:01:13.620going to help hurt the liberals too in their two ridings and so yes um people are asking if there's
00:01:18.800anything to analyze yet maybe there is in chikotimi the problem is like uh when votes oh there is
00:01:25.920something to analyze right now i'm gonna see if there's anything in beaches at the moment
00:01:29.540um beaches there is as well so we'll bring that up on screen in just a second here but yeah so
00:01:35.860the whole the whole thing tonight is just seeing where do the liberals sort of end up they could
00:01:42.220win chikatimi that's a race between the bloc and the liberals beaches and north vancouver those
00:01:48.600ridings are more about how much is the liberal party bleeding to their left and is the conservatives
00:01:53.380maintaining or going up so yeah people are already saying yeah beaches east york is very liberal
00:01:58.620and that's the whole point the the ridings are not going to go conservative we just want to see
00:02:04.380what's kind of going on the ground, how are elbows up voters currently shifting. So let's just go to
00:02:10.300the election night results. This is Chicotimi-le-Fjord. We have only counted 251 votes, so that's
00:02:17.440just one polling station so far. And the Liberals are at 44.6, Block 36.7, and Conservatives 16.7,
00:02:27.440which is actually very close to what we polled it at in our by-election polling with PolyWave.
00:02:33.140I teamed up with Sherea Teest at Polywave in order to fund by-election polls.
00:02:38.620And we had the Liberals leading a little bit in this riding up against the bloc.
00:02:44.080The Conservatives, again, are going to bottom out in this riding because the way that Richard Martel arbitrarily left, it was naturally going to hurt us.
00:02:52.480And people are saying it pronounced Shikutimi, so I'll try and do that a bit more.
00:07:46.760There's always the rumor that Carney could call a earlier election if they wanted.
00:07:52.180And so, like, I don't think he's going to call an earlier election.
00:07:55.840Some people say, well, polls this far out don't indicate anything.
00:07:59.460Yes, I understand. The next year, the polls that are happening today don't mean anything in a year. What talking about polls does is it allows you to kind of interpret the happenings in the news.
00:08:13.540Carney does something. How do the polls react in the next week or two? Now, you have to focus on good polls because bad polls exist. Anyone who says they trust the polls doesn't actually trust the polls.
00:08:24.240Anyone who says they don't trust the polls doesn't actually not trust the polls.
00:08:28.000You have to trust good pollsters and reject bad ones.
00:19:27.820Love your positivity and lack of doomerism in your videos.
00:19:31.280Well, and yeah, thank you for the $10.
00:19:32.240And it's not useful when people start just doing the, oh my goodness, all is lost. Everything's terrible. The country's never going to turn around and all this. It's like, well, you know, that's a great way of doing this. We're never going to recover if everyone decides, yeah, let's stop trying. Then we'll probably win if we stop trying.
00:19:56.880Here's the Chikatini-Le Fjord update, 15 out of 212 polls counting.
00:20:01.600Now that 212 also includes early advance polls, and I believe even mail-in, if there is any mail-in going on.
00:20:08.380So right now we have the Liberals at 49.6, Block 31.4, and Conservatives at 13.9, but obviously it's still very early.
00:20:17.180Again, Conservatives aren't going to win that one, but still very early where the Block could still win because we're so early into the actual counting.
00:20:24.120So it depends on where these actual vote, you know, polls are being counted from.
00:20:30.160Beaches, East York here, Tanvir Shenhowah is at 51.5% for the Liberals.
00:20:36.740The NDP is actually at 25.1% of the vote.
00:20:39.740Conservative Jim Seibro says 17.4%, but again, only eight polls out of 200 are actually counting so far.
00:20:59.840It's going to take a while, but again, what we're mainly looking for is how are Liberal votes currently being affected on their left flank,
00:21:08.180and are Conservatives outside of Shikotimi, are they mostly keeping it together?
00:21:18.920Wyatt, don't feed the trolls. They want your attention. If we ignore them, they will get bored.
00:21:22.620I don't really care too much. The thing is that they don't bother me in any way, shape, or form, so I don't know why people show up being like, Wyatt, you're a loser. It's like, oh my goodness, I can't believe a random person on the internet said that about me. I guess I'm going to have to quit.
00:21:36.180uh cindy machado says if peter malibar's new party is going to be a center-right party
00:21:42.900in the uh mlb of bc united or more conservative or in the mold of bc united or something more
00:21:49.760conservative i don't here's the funny thing peter malibar represents nothing in fact mike
00:21:56.620bernier who runs center bc apparently approached him and ian payton asking hey would you like to
00:22:02.220join our party and be some MLAs for Centre BC? And they said no to Mike Bernier, because they
00:22:08.580said Mike Bernier was too much on the left still. So what kind of party would he ever join if
00:22:15.480Bernier's Centre BC party is too to the left? It's like Peter Milibar only basically, the only
00:22:23.780politics he can agree with, the only political position he can agree with is whatever he
00:22:28.860currently holds at the moment, and anyone outside of whatever Peter Milibar's political thought is
00:22:34.540for that very second is too right-wing or too left-wing for him. If he starts a party, it will
00:22:40.440hurt the NDP. The BC NDP will be hurt by center BC because people who want to solve problems right
00:22:47.360now either vote 1BC or conservative. They don't vote for a mushy center party. The people who are
00:22:55.180voting a mushy center party are the people who know the NDP suck, but they're unwilling to vote
00:22:59.740for something explicitly right-wing. But you don't chase those voters for victory. It's a waste of
00:23:04.460time. So, um, oh, hey, so a frask attack, a frask attack, attack. I'm trying to read this. I hope
00:23:17.040I'm not messing up your name in a frask attack five, two, two, six for 2799. Well, thank you for
00:23:23.360that. And he says, for the boomer vote, what if Polyev ran on a capital gains cut of 5 to 10
00:23:30.480points, marking it as freedom 55 cut where every increment of five years from 55 gets another
00:23:37.340cut of 2 to 5% to incentivize boomers selling a home or business? I get where you're coming from.
00:23:43.620I think the solution is actually simpler than that. And it's the same way you win middle-aged
00:23:48.540voters. It's the same way you win younger voters, whether people are higher income or lower income.
00:23:54.240You just need to make sure that whatever cuts you are running on, whatever tax savings you're
00:23:58.600running on, are universal. Or else people are going to get mad that you're favoring that group
00:24:03.940more than this group. You just do an across-the-board tax cut. If you do a capital gains
00:24:09.460cut, you run on just a 5% cut for everybody. That would be the best way of doing it, rather than
00:24:15.700feeling like you're trying to nickel and dime different specific groups money back, just run
00:24:20.300on something universal. Because if you run on universal cuts, don't run on OAS stuff. I know
00:24:25.220the Conservatives announced some stupid OAS stuff in Shikotini. Don't do it. Because it makes other
00:24:31.800groups resent you. What the Conservatives should be doing is the party for everybody. We want
00:24:36.400everybody to be better off. And that's why we want to give big tax cuts to everybody,
00:24:43.220including corporations, including taking sales tax off. That's how they should be doing it.
00:24:52.820Alex Morrell says the Liberal voters are hoping Pierre Polyev is going to resign tonight. Pierre
00:24:56.940is not going anywhere. It wouldn't even be rational for him to go anywhere. These elections
00:25:02.200don't really mean anything exactly for the Conservatives. People aren't really expecting
00:25:07.120the Conservatives to do super well in these. Again, two of them are safe, safe Liberal ridings.
00:25:13.220uh the fact that they're getting a little bit tighter is more just bad news for the liberals
00:25:17.740and shikotimi is only tight because richard martell resigned and he resigned to take a
00:25:24.440senate appointment by carney so what conservative voters saying yeah i'm going to show up for that
00:25:28.580guy again you know based on how much he respects us um yeah so when people are saying that it's
00:25:34.2807 10 in north vancouver we'll be getting results there soon uh it's just close they probably have
00:25:39.400only started counting now. Tanvir Shahanawaz is at 50.2. Conservatives, remember the Conservative
00:25:46.200last election only got 23% of the vote in Beaches East York. The NDP is doing way better than they
00:25:53.460used to, now at a quarter of the vote when they only had 6% last time. And in Shikatimi, the
00:25:59.580Liberals are currently at 48% to the Blocks 32. We'll see how that one develops as they count more
00:26:05.580polls, although it's getting more substantial these days. Maybe the Liberals run away from it
00:26:09.780with it. Maybe it's all the elbows up type rhetoric and the walking away from the
00:26:15.760deal that is going to help out Carney here. I predicted the bloc were more likely to win it,
00:26:21.100but that wasn't like a hard and fast, oh, they're obviously going to win it. I was
00:26:24.180in a 60-40 split of who's going to win. I was thinking maybe nationalist sentiment that's
00:26:29.780rising toward the provincial election would help the bloc out, but we'll have to evaluate that as
00:26:34.900we go on here. Yeah, someone's saying that these early results are ticking me off. I show the early
00:26:41.080results because sometimes if I don't, I'll have people being like, why? And I showed up here for
00:26:44.420the results. And then I show them and people are like, why aren't there enough results? And I'm
00:26:47.560like, I don't know. I don't know how to control this. I'm sorry. Going down to some more people.
00:26:55.300Remember for eight months, Brenda Wiebe here says, even the trolls helped the algorithm lol.
00:27:00.560And you're absolutely right. I love people hating me in the comments because it, in fact, empowers me and makes sure more people are served the videos to click on them.
00:27:11.080Oh, I've been holding this cup of coffee, not taking a sip for the entire time.
00:31:57.620Oh, absolutely. He's just trying to get under Ford's skin because Ford kind of got under his skin. It's a dumb bun fight, except it's one we can't afford to be in as much as Trump can afford to be in it. Trump could win the midterms anyways, because of how insane the Democrats are right now running DSA candidates all over the place like El Syed in Michigan, who is like the only person who could fumble a Michigan Senate race, which is usually a likely Democrat race.
00:32:23.980kingody for five dollars says why aren't you glad i keep recommending live stream
00:32:29.200i'm just kidding i love watching your videos and picking your brain well thank you kingody and you
00:32:33.800are the one of the people who is most likely to tell me that i should stream more often i don't
00:32:37.700like to do it too often i know some people make it part of their repertoire to stream quite often
00:32:41.980i just don't want to make it like a regular thing i'm just so often like all over the place and i
00:32:46.960don't want to promise things that i can't do other people are don't work in politics i work in
00:32:51.620victoria's legislature i'm constantly traveling around and i still do daily videos obviously but
00:32:57.400i don't want to then burden myself if i'm in a hotel room in victoria of saying oh i got to do
00:33:01.600the weekly live stream with a terrible hotel room lighting ronnie baby 604 for two dollars says
00:33:07.460convince me to stay on stream before see before seeing steven um i don't know convince me to stay
00:33:14.980on stream before seeing steven are you going out to see steven or something like that and you're
00:33:19.180riding, Stephen Curran. Let's see. They don't have North Vancouver results yet, so I can't convince
00:33:24.940you based on how Stephen's doing. But right now, what do we got going on? Nothing's really changed
00:33:31.460between the two ridings. But overall, liberals in Beaches, East York have lost, if this holds up,
00:33:38.94017% of the vote that they had last time. And in Shikotimi, it's a pickup for the liberals,
00:33:44.460mostly based on the news cycle and the Richard Martell resigning. And then as we get North
00:33:49.860Vancouver Capilano, I expect that riding to mirror Beaches, East York, where the Liberals win the
00:33:55.680riding, but they win it by far smaller of a margin than they previously won it by, which will have
00:34:01.320implications on all the close ridings around the area. Diane Martin, 435, says for $6.99, a little
00:34:09.160something to help your channel keep up the great work. Well, thank you, Diane Martin, because I
00:34:13.500ended up paying for the polls for the three by-elections with PolyWave, so that cost me a
00:34:18.760few thousand dollars or so. Not that much, and I can write it off my taxes probably at the end of
00:34:24.160the year, but it's a bit of a slap, but I just did it to help out Sheree Attiste and his other
00:34:28.540colleagues because they're really young guys, and I mean like they're like 17 and 18 years old
00:34:33.640wanting to start their own sort of polling enterprise, and so I kind of partnered up with
00:34:38.040them on their PolyWave site, and it looks like, based on the trajectory of the night, that their
00:34:42.740actual polling results in the by-elections is going to be far more accurate than any other
00:34:46.620prediction that was put out. RaptorGuy86 for $2 says, I bet the next liberal MP to quit is Jamie
00:34:53.080Batsy. Well, Stephen Gilbeau just officially resigned today. We all knew it was going to
00:35:00.020happen, but it just depends on the timing that he chose for it. That's actually Quebec riding.
00:35:05.380I could see the NDP or the bloc winning, because if you didn't know, Stephen Gilbeau is like the
00:35:10.760first Liberal to win that Laurier riding in Montreal since like the 90s. Since like the 1993
00:35:18.280or 97 elections, that used to be a block NDP switch riding. Those two parties would usually
00:35:25.520fight for it. But the problem is for the Liberals is that like Stephen was a really good MP, not in
00:35:33.480terms of policy by no any means, but he was a good MP of being able to kind of marry the traditional
00:35:38.520liberal base in the riding with very progressive NDP votes as well as the Quebec nationalist votes
00:35:45.880because he was a greeny Palestine Quebec nationalist which is very popular in that kind
00:35:53.420of area but if the liberals put up like a corporate liberal candidate in the next by-election which I
00:35:58.660think that's actually kind of Carney's instinct I think you could see it switching back to another
00:36:03.000party. Cabal458 says, Hey, Wyatt, any thoughts on the next handful of by-elections? I think you
00:36:09.520were optimistic about the NDP taking Gilbeau's seat at one point. Read my mind. I was already
00:36:14.120talking about that. Even if the Liberals win it, again, that's a riding. I expect the Liberal vote
00:36:19.880from the previous elections is to be very diminished. In 2021, Gilbeau only had won the
00:36:25.860riding by like a few points i think he got a pretty big win there in 2019 and by 2021 he won
00:36:33.220it with like 38 of the vote and his next closest competitor was like 35 or it might have been a
00:36:38.800little lower than that but it's not the biggest win on the planet and with gilbo leaving in the
00:36:44.340kind of context that he's saying oh my goodness well you know screw the liberals because they're
00:36:48.780being too pro pipeline even though the liberals are kind of dragging out building a pipeline yeah
00:36:53.500there being more pro building of a pipeline than Trudeau was, they're still dragging out the
00:36:58.080process to make it so that even if one gets built, it's going to be like Trans Mountain,
00:37:02.800where it takes forever to actually get built. Like Carney's giving himself until like 2034,
00:37:08.2402035 to complete it. It's like, well, that's useful. It's only two election cycles away from
00:37:14.020happening. Other by-elections, Brantford Brant South is one I think the Conservatives will hold
00:37:21.000on to, especially with Larry Brock likely to be endorsing and campaigning for his replacement.
00:37:26.840Kathy Wagenthal, obviously conservative running there in that Saskatchewan rural riding will do
00:37:31.400really well. He'll easily win it. And what other ones do we have coming up here? There's going to
00:37:36.500be some tough fights for the riding that the NDP MP in Montreal vacated. He's going to go run for
00:37:42.740Quebec Solidaire in the provincial election. That's going to be a test of Avi Lewis because
00:37:46.880that's one he has to prove he can hold on
00:38:15.340well yeah the problem is they also need us that's always the problem with china no matter how much
00:38:21.400leverage china has there's more leverage for the west than china their only tactic is making you
00:38:28.720think they have more leverage than you but they would basically collapse uh without basically
00:38:33.560the west's patronage into their economy uh lisa harrison says yeah liberals are winning rigged
00:38:41.700elections again, I can tell you they're not rigged. This is, again, why would the, if the liberals
00:38:46.280rigged an election, why would they rig their vote lower than they had in 2025 and show left-wing
00:38:51.220voters that they're bleeding? In Beaches, East York, Tanvir has 51% of the vote, still pretty
00:38:57.800early again. Chikatimi has gone up a bit, 47% liberal, 33% bloc Quebecois. Maybe they're going
00:39:05.380to be able to hold on to that lead the entire time. We have 28% of the vote counted. Sometimes
00:39:10.400this is also people who, you know, they're counting one particular side of the riding first
00:39:14.980and they're going to get to the more rural areas later. Who knows if that's a pickup for the
00:39:19.100liberals. Again, that's more so just Richard Martell dropping out and the trade war probably
00:39:24.700helped them there. But in other ridings where, you know, other ridings that are liberal safe
00:39:30.120seats, they're bleeding a bit, quite a bit more. King Odie says for $2, the CBC are complete
00:39:37.040joke with regard to 9-11. Oh yeah, my goodness. Did you guys see that? The conservatives should
00:39:42.420be pushing really hard their message that this is why the CBC at least needs to be partially
00:39:47.880defunded. It's full of people who think calling 9-11 a terrorist attack is overstating the case.
00:39:54.220That's rude to call it a terrorist attack. It's a tragedy. It's a horrific event. It's not a
00:39:59.640it's not a terrorist attack. Yeah, Thomas Gregory, he actually ran for the New Blue Party
00:40:07.440in the last provincial election. So hey, Thomas, he says Beachy's East York will never vote any
00:40:13.500way other than Liberal. And he's absolutely right. It probably will never vote another way other than
00:40:18.500Liberal unless like the NDP surged one day, they would be the only other party to take it.
00:40:23.200But again, we're looking at seeing how much the Liberals are hemorrhaging over to their left side.
00:40:27.960Now, sometimes in by-elections, voters feel a bit more empowered to vote for a different party, knowing it's not going to affect Parliament very much at all. At the same time, most voters just kind of vote for what they want.
00:40:42.020Yes, by-election voters tend to be more motivated and politically in touch than general election voters on average, but it still demonstrates that if the NDP voter feels like Carney's not progressive enough, if the Bloc voter or the Green voter thinks that he's not enough of an environmentalist, they're going to switch over.
00:41:01.060And it kind of does prove that there's a really overheated polling where the liberals are leading by like 17 points federally. It's not right. The by-elections generally prove that case to be true, because in the aftermath of the last federal election, remember when Chrystia Freeland had run in university, or she'd resigned from University Rosedale?
00:41:23.400Well, that those elections basically showed that the liberals were still at where they were pretty much at last election. They didn't go up, they didn't go down. Now, conservative vote collapsed in that one by-election, but they basically spent no money in it at all. They just didn't work at all. But every time a by-election happens, it proves that whenever the polls show that the liberals are leading by 20 points, it's not true. Or in all these by-elections, they'd be winning it by like dictatorship numbers of like 80%.
00:41:48.580When you actually saw a by-election result that reflected the polling, remember the Christmastime, kind of early December election in, it was Cloverdale, Surrey Cloverdale with Tamara Jensen getting back into Parliament?
00:42:05.520And that one was showing that the federal polling in BC that was showing the Conservatives leading by 15 points, that was real because she won massively in that by-election, where these current by-elections are showing that when you see a poll out there saying plus 20 liberal, no, probably plus 4, plus 5, maybe plus 7.
00:42:24.900It's much more reasonable, and the Conservatives do have a very big capacity to fight back right now.
00:42:29.600and oh uh robust and golf just gives 50 dollars robust and golf well thank you for that that
00:42:38.700really helps me out uh i'll make sure if you ever comment something else definitely highlight it
00:42:43.460thunderbird 4709 says for 279 clf conservatives shouldn't strategically vote should have
00:42:50.120strategically voted bq yes and that's what i recommended um they're obviously going to lose
00:42:55.840Richard Martel is also like the only conservative to win that riding in like decades. Like even in
00:43:02.2802011, the conservatives didn't win it or obviously they didn't win in 2011. Conservatives actually
00:43:06.640oddly enough, uh, conservatives in 2011, oddly enough, didn't do very well in Quebec. That's
00:43:13.640where I always hate the conservative strategy of you should be, we should be trying to like trying
00:43:18.940to figure out how to win Quebec ridings. We have as many Quebec ridings as we're ever going to win.
00:43:23.920we win about five to eight of them, and that's kind of it. Stephen Harper, in 2011, his majority
00:43:31.060election got 16% of the vote in Quebec. It obviously doesn't matter that much. We should
00:43:37.040be focusing on Southwest Ontario, on British Columbia, and especially Atlantic Canada,
00:43:44.340and obviously certain parts of the GTA where they're very suburban.
00:43:47.520um and david edwards for 10 says with all the people saying the liberals will call an early
00:43:55.200election why on earth would you do that with a majority it's a risk that they don't have to take
00:43:59.600give us some hypotheticals on why they would the only reason they would is that they think
00:44:04.260eventually the elbows up crap is going to hurt them in a year or two and then they'll be doomed
00:44:09.160and so they want to lock in a full four-year term now with an even bigger majority because
00:44:15.160eventually they will fall on their faces, maybe, as the elbows up thing proves extremely toxic to
00:44:21.140the economy. I don't think he's going to do it, though. I think you're right. I think Carney is
00:44:25.640a far more risk-averse politician than people sort of give him credit for. Thank you for
00:44:31.380noticing the A&W mug. Sorry if I'm a little bit behind right now.
00:44:39.220Human8250 said, Fortress North America and the Greater North America Project.
00:44:46.000I think that's what we should have always been pitching to the Americans.
00:44:49.400Now, Ford did it for a while, but it was so dishonest because he had been attacking them like five seconds before.
00:44:54.420But we could have used a lot of leverage as well as basically a promise to team up against China to get a trade deal.
00:45:01.580But for some reason, we didn't want to do it.
00:45:04.620Medical says, why does a rebel for not having root beer in his A&W mug?
00:45:09.340I don't have any root beer in the house right now or I'd be drinking it, although I am a Barks man.
00:47:54.220How can we help donate to your provincial election?
00:47:57.500Well, first of all, in the nomination, there's actually no spending limits,
00:48:02.060but you do have to do a bunch of hoop-jumping if you take in donations for a nomination race.
00:48:06.720I'm running for the UCP nomination in the riding of Calgary Curry,
00:48:10.700so you can always visit my website, wyattcleepool.com,
00:48:13.440if you want to sign up and vote for me in the riding if you live there.
00:48:16.480But I'm just going to do my own spending for the actual nomination race,
00:48:20.800because it's just easier, it's less hassle,
00:48:23.680and I don't think I'm going to have to spend a lot to win the nomination.
00:48:26.860In fact, I think the party's warming up to the idea of me running there because they need someone more aggressive to go after the, like, crack evangelist that is the current MLA, Janet Aramanco.
00:48:37.880She is a full-on drug abuse site promoting, homeless drug housing establishing, crack pipe evangelist nutcase.
00:48:47.960You need people who can actually throw a punch.
00:48:50.380And if you run a real estate agent or a business owner who rightfully needs to kind of stay friendly with the public because if they lose, they go back to running a business that has a lot of, like, liberal or NDP voting customers, you need to throw somebody in a riding like this who's willing to kind of get involved in a political knife fight, which I'm always down for.
00:49:12.560Someone said I wasn't old enough to remember something.
00:49:14.660it was about maybe i think it was someone to bring up harper and the wef or whatever i wouldn't doubt
00:49:21.960that harper at the time would have been kind of naive about who they were here's the thing with
00:49:25.780organizations like the world economic forum straight trash they are selling reheated italian
00:49:31.180fascist economics on a global scale at the same time most politicians don't think of things past
00:49:37.220you know the old world economic forum well that sounds prestigious that's genuinely how people
00:49:41.720think about this stuff raptor guy 86 says i think in if beaches east yorks ever went conservative
00:49:47.220why it would do a video with unacceptable fringe my way of saying when pigs fly yes absolutely it
00:49:53.620will never happen you need it to be even in like the dog days of the trudeau liberals the
00:50:00.920conservatives would never win that riding it's just a riding whose culture is left it's like
00:50:07.440whenever I see a poll come out that shows Saskatchewan and Manitoba are tight between
00:50:11.760the conservatives and liberals? No, they're not. What do you think? Farmers are voting liberal now?
00:50:17.140Whenever you see that, it just means all they pulled was Regina and Winnipeg. That's it. They
00:50:21.560only pulled the suburbs, the deep urban suburbs of Regina and Winnipeg and some apartment buildings,
00:50:27.480and that's it. I'm trying to catch up a little bit here, guys.
00:50:37.440brent howard says why it's barks bigger than his bite thank you for that i like that uh i can only
00:50:45.100buy i have to go down to the u.s i'm sorry for being unpatriotic i have to go to the u.s to go
00:50:48.980get diet barks because that's the only place you can get it uh vancouver 8129 says diet barks ain't
00:50:55.780healthy bub well how did it win world war ii then don't fact check me it had something to do with it
00:51:01.980i think uh and uh cornish coves 9399 thank you for that gifts five national telegraph uh memberships
00:51:11.340thank you for that that's very very kind of you i think you did this last time and it was extremely
00:51:15.800nice uh because it allows other people to actually ask some uh super chat questions the next times i
00:51:21.720do um if i ever do a live stream they get randomly distributed out to people in chat and so everyone
00:51:29.300give Cornish Cove a salute because she's fantastic. And it does allow other people to get some free
00:51:35.620super chat questions. Although I do try and take general chat stuff. I'm never trying to focus only
00:51:40.420on super chat stuff. It's just if someone does that, I'm not going to, like, you know, ignore it.
00:51:46.360Don Allen, of course, gave her a thank you. So thank you for noticing that, Don Allen.
00:51:52.460Yeah, so here's a good, actually, here's a great example from Karen Law here.
00:51:56.200I live in rural southern Ontario, Michael Chong's riding, and I have always voted conservative,
00:52:01.820and even his riding isn't exactly rural southern Ontario. It's in southern Ontario,
00:52:06.720but it has a lot of suburban in it. But Michael Chong's a great example. His riding's not going
00:52:11.880liberal, even though on paper, if the Liberals were ever leading by 10 points, you'd think they
00:52:16.480would win it. The culture of that riding is just not liberal. It's like downtown Toronto. If you
00:52:21.380ever saw a downtown Toronto only poll that showed the Conservatives at like 35%? No, it's just that
00:52:28.640there are too many people who it doesn't even compute to them to think of voting Conservative
00:52:33.560in that area. Just as you go to Asquith, Saskatchewan, or you go to high level Alberta,
00:52:40.320or you go to, you know, you go to like, I don't know, Peace River, it's just not happening. Those
00:52:47.260voters just do not have any cultural connection to the way those parties think about each other.
00:52:52.720It's like the NDP is a great example. Some ridings are hyper-liberal, but a hyper-liberal
00:52:57.860riding doesn't mean the NDP actually do well there. A good NDP riding is a weird mix of public
00:53:03.520sector workers, college students, and social activists. So Beaches East York is naturally
00:53:10.300riding they do well in. It's a very left progressive area. Business liberal ridings
00:53:17.540exist where they do super well and nobody else does well. There are some Montreal ridings that
00:53:22.400are very much liberal ridings that the NDP don't do well in. But sometimes you go three blocks to
00:53:27.460the south, the NDP are dominant in certain neighborhoods. And it's just those micro
00:53:31.480cultures that you get around the country. So whenever I see a plus 15 result federally
00:53:37.340in national polls for the Liberals? No. The only time parties ever lead by that much federally
00:53:43.980is if a massive cultural change happened. And sorry, the elbows up thing to all the Liberals
00:53:49.380out there who want it to be different. That didn't change the culture of Canada enough
00:53:53.400to start shifting blue parts of the country. If the Liberals even are ever up at plus seven or
00:53:58.720plus ten, their gains or their lead is mostly going to be concentrated first in the areas they
00:54:04.740were already winning by a mile. That's how everything ends up working. If you ever start
00:54:09.620leading by quite a bit, the problem is, is that the first places that you start gaining the most
00:54:13.700votes are the places that you were already winning anyways. And so it takes a while before you
00:54:18.640actually start changing the cultures of those writings that are usually a little more out of
00:54:22.360sync with you. But yeah, thank you for that. That was a really great thing to say. Nicole Drescher.
00:54:29.020Thank you. Hey, there, there we go. There's somebody who I know in my area of Calgary,
00:54:33.800the 9-11 CBC incident is Trump's kryptonite for any effect Carney was trying to have in the
00:54:40.180American election absolutely because there was even more liberal outlets had to cover that in
00:54:47.160the United States because it's so stupid because that made us like the most that the Jacobin isn't
00:54:53.340even that left wing raptor guy 86 for five dollars says whenever Rachel Gilmore posts something I
00:54:59.640always quote Joe Flaherty in Happy Gilmore. What did he say? I've watched Happy Gilmore
00:55:08.560multiple times. I don't know where I'm... I don't know what the line there is. Someone
00:55:15.680will have to remind me what that line is in chat. I'll even go back to live so people
00:55:19.520can let me know. Ooh, apparently the North Van results are starting to pour in. So let's
00:55:28.760just jump to that right now and then i'll start clearing up some other stuff oh he just says chat
00:55:33.320uh yeah there you go and so votes coming in but we only have one poll so it's just brandon
00:55:43.840cayley at 61 in one poll with with actually the green party uh coming in with 16 of the vote
00:55:50.260which should tell you the type of poll that they just counted a very left-wing poll uh again every
00:55:55.720neighborhood has good pulls and bad pulls depending on the party. Like the riding I'm
00:56:00.360running in Curry here, the little part of that you can see on screen in the east towards the
00:56:05.620downtown, these two areas went plus 25 Alberta NDP and plus 33. If you go to the most east side
00:56:12.520of the riding to show you how this stuff works, the most east side had an area that the Conservatives
00:56:17.520won by plus two despite the fact they lost the entire riding by 13 points. It's just how things
00:56:22.500kind of shake out in the wash but yeah okay so we're starting to get the results in from there
00:56:30.280not a lot still yet Tanvir is starting to pull away a little bit more 55% of the vote there
00:56:37.120with the NDP at 25.2 and the Conservatives at 16.3 again that was a riding the Conservatives
00:56:43.760only got 22-23% in last time and then in Shikatimi we're getting a little bit past half I would say
00:56:51.420I'd call it for the liberals. They're going to win Chikotimi 49 to 34, mainly based on a collapse
00:56:57.580of the conservatives. And it looks like because in our poll that we did, we thought it was going
00:57:02.780to be closer with more leaners showing up. It looks like leaning voters mostly just didn't
00:57:07.600bother even participating because when we removed leaners in our poll, which you can see on the
00:57:13.520PolyWave website, it showed the liberals winning by this larger poll. And I think that's probably
00:57:21.160about right. In by-elections, leaning voters or voters who are not absolutely committed
00:57:25.460don't matter as much, because who the heck who's undecided is really racking their brains for a
00:57:32.000by-election. You're just going to decide to go for brunch and not bother voting.
00:57:36.960Trying to catch up with some of this stuff, guys. So, yes, okay, I'm caught up there. So,
01:01:20.240I think we're going to have to give up on me, guys.
01:01:30.540The good thing is after tonight, I'm not going to have to mention the riding very often.
01:01:36.280And David Edwards, 3838, for $2, says there are three landmark cinemas in Calgary, FYI.
01:01:42.300I didn't even know that. I just know that they're in America.
01:01:44.500and goofy gary here giving me the worst pronunciation advice now saying karma karma
01:01:50.660karma karma karma chameleon which you know that's probably about as accurate as what i was saying
01:01:56.420chikutimi okay now try uh tamagami okay
01:02:07.100chikutami people are saying now i don't even know i'm i'm guys i'm screwed i'm hopeless i'm not
01:02:14.400going to be able to do this. I'm like, genuinely a little retarded. It's I don't speak foreign. I
01:02:22.520don't speak French people. I don't speak foreign. Yeah, people are telling me to stop, which I will.
01:02:30.120Okay, North Vancouver, Capilano, nothing counted yet. They literally counted less than half a
01:02:35.420percent of the vote. Nothing, nothing new. Everything is still pretty much in stasis at
01:02:43.520the moment, but we'll come back to that a bit later. But yeah, actually, here's something I
01:03:02.600can talk about in the meantime here, because obviously this is going really slow. I want to
01:03:06.860bring up the polling point I was making from earlier about bad polls and how you can match
01:03:13.900how you can kind of analyze them. So I posted this on X earlier today, because it was a great
01:03:20.400illustration of how to identify a bad poll. Liaison put out a poll today, showing the liberals
01:03:28.460jumped up another three points, and they have a 17 point lead on the conservatives right now.
01:03:32.560Always look at the prairie sample. The prairie sample will tell you if something is wrong. Manitoba, Saskatchewan here says liberals are at 38, conservatives at 38, NDP 13, PPC 6, Greens 3. Not in my or your lifetimes.
01:03:50.420all right is this going to be a result in manitoba saskatchewan saskatchewan simply votes
01:03:56.860conservative yeah that you can say that that's not that's simplistic why is it they vote conservative
01:04:02.280because they're farmers no farmer is going to take this poll they do i believe ivr which will
01:04:08.020get a few more farmers but you'll have other polls from like leger and you'll have polls from nanos
01:04:13.960and nanos apparently you have to pay in order to get their uh their regional numbers and someone
01:04:21.200was telling me the regional numbers on the phone today and they were wild anyone who believes a
01:04:26.920nanos poll is delusional so their new one had the conservatives up a little bit and the liberals down
01:04:31.620and uh the liberals were leading by 11 which you know for a nanos poll isn't that bad for the
01:04:37.120for the conservatives but in the nanos polls regionals which again the person had to know
01:04:43.680somebody or they paid for it to find out the conservatives were leading in atlantic canada
01:04:49.280like no and then the liberals were like leading in like some other absurd place like they were
01:04:55.040leading massively in british columbia or no no the liberals were winning every seat but four
01:05:00.480in Ontario. That's where you cannot trust Nanos' polls. Even in polls where the Liberals are doing
01:05:08.860well and Liberals would want to hold the poll up and say how great it was, even they can't actually
01:05:13.680trust the poll because do you really think the Conservatives are leading in Atlantic Canada?
01:05:18.380They would say, no, that's absurd. Okay, well, that's what Nanos is showing, but then it also
01:05:23.100shows the Liberals winning by dictatorship numbers in Ontario and winning every single seat but four.
01:05:28.360that's why nano sucks it doesn't matter what their top line numbers are the undercarriage of the
01:05:35.180polls are terrible they don't make any sense liaison doesn't make any sense when it's saying
01:05:41.380ppc have six percent in alberta and saskatchewan and manitoba no they don't maybe in the 2025
01:05:49.2202021 federal election the ppc did like seven percent in manitoba this because there's tons
01:05:55.300anti-lockdown, anti-mandate voters. The PPC got 0.7% last election. They're not surging to six
01:06:01.740in any province. Any pollster that thinks PPC are at six is doing a bad job at polling. If you think
01:06:08.860the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, you're out of your mind.
01:06:15.700Guess what this is? It's farmers don't take polls. They don't. Have you ever seen Saskatchewan
01:06:20.800provincial election polls, every pollster always gets it wrong by like a mile because farmers
01:06:27.060don't take polls and you can't pass a Regina poll off as a Saskatchewan-wide poll. The pollsters
01:06:32.740were off by like 14% in the last Saskatchewan election. It was nuts. Let's go back to the
01:06:40.440vote count here to see what's going on in North Vancouver, Capilano. We have a second poll
01:06:47.780district counting. And so Stephen Curry jumped up from where he was at before. Greens fell down a
01:06:55.500bit. Liberals fell down a bit, but we're literally still counting less than 1% of the vote. My
01:07:00.500goodness, if the Liberals don't do pretty much, like if the Liberals don't do as badly in this
01:07:07.500race as they should have, it's going to be because of Stephen Tweedle here. Stephen was an absolute
01:07:13.380turkey of a candidate for the NDP it was like the most activist candidate you could find and it's
01:07:19.700like you're running in North Vancouver Capilano these are business liberals these are people with
01:07:26.120like you know screw you money you don't run the the the baggy jeans kind of activist wearing his
01:07:34.520like you know like wearing like uh like a kind of like schlubby type outfits with his activist
01:07:39.840friends still wearing masks and looking like Palestine protesters. They don't care about that
01:07:45.480in that community. In fact, there's a Persian community who hates that crap. But the NDP put
01:07:50.900in the candidates so late, it was ridiculous. What else do we got here? Okay, oh yeah, we have
01:07:58.600another update from North Vancouver Capilano. This is getting to more towards what I was assuming we
01:08:04.000are going to see. So the liberals are currently down by from about six points from where they
01:08:09.400were last election the Stephen Curran is pretty much exactly where he was last time the Greens
01:08:14.460are at 11 NDP still just at four percent honestly pathetic if Avi Lewis actually tried at all in
01:08:23.240this riding he's getting four percent the same he got in 2025 in BC one of the better provincial
01:08:29.680one of the better ridings or the better provinces for the federal NDP but yeah if that starts
01:08:35.500continuing to tick up for the Conservatives. I think they can say, hey, Yucatimi was a write-off.
01:08:42.300Richard Martel put us in a position where it was hard for us to go to voters and say,
01:08:45.820re-elect us again. Yeah, our guy just left arbitrarily, but put another one of our guys in.
01:08:50.700But Conservatives should come out tonight, not like fanfare-wise, but I'm saying quietly after
01:08:57.000tonight, they should go to their own people and say, the Liberal coalition is starting to hemorrhage.
01:09:01.560trying to take out pure poly of now is a bad idea we just need to refine our message that's all we
01:09:08.060need to do liberals are bleeding on the left now conservatives need to try and consolidate their
01:09:13.200right and push for the next election with a very strong coalition of fiscal conservatives social
01:09:19.240conservatives and cultural conservatives run on a 20 tax cut it really will help i've been having
01:09:24.900more conversations with mps in poly of caucus they really like the 20 idea and they hope they
01:09:30.400do it some people said well they're scared that they may steal the idea the liberals if you run
01:09:35.820on that and i said no they won't a 20 tax cut will never be stolen by the liberals they can't do it
01:09:41.840they are spending too much money they're unwilling to cut any of the spending and it's a subsidy
01:09:46.960party they don't do tax cuts they do subsidies if you if you put out a 20 tax cut they're not
01:09:52.880going to try and copy you on that zane carson says pure poly of is awesome don't remove him
01:09:59.100And what I would say about Polyev is I, I like call balls and strikes on him. I didn't like the OAS thing they announced in Quebec. It was silly. The excuses, Shikotimi Le Fjord is the oldest riding in Quebec by average age. Who cares? Don't run on saying stupid just because the age of people in the riding is older. Every riding is a national election.
01:10:23.500Yes, there are sometimes regional issues you have to talk about, but you have to realize that other voters in other ridings are going to see what you said there, and they're going to react sometimes badly. If you run on OAS tax cuts and increases in benefits, younger voters are going to resent that.
01:10:38.400And that's not because I'm saying, no, no, no, declare war on the boomers like you get some idiots on social media saying, no, the conservatives should be running hard for the Zoomer vote and telling boomer voters to pack sand. No, you'll win all voters by running on benefits that apply to anyone. If you're ever running on something regional, it better not be something that reflects poorly elsewhere in the country.
01:10:57.360Like fishing policy obviously is a local thing in the Maritimes and on the West Coast. Those can be local policies that you can promise. That's fair enough. It doesn't hurt anywhere else. You don't promise an OAS increase in one riding where pitching that in another riding would have people slam their doors in your face because it's just a slap in the face that they're going to have to pay more taxes for one particular demographic getting higher benefits and a tax cut.
01:11:22.020always run on universal benefits not or universal tax cuts never run on a specific tax cut for
01:11:29.480people right here let the liberals do that they do that and it's to their detriment over the long
01:11:34.620run that they only give a rebate to people making under the 33 percent you know income rate uh or
01:11:41.780whatever it is like bottom three thirty uh bottom 33 percent of earners let the liberals be the
01:11:45.900party who's trying to hand out specific benefits make the conservative party the party of true
01:12:20.960That's always the sad thing. I think I'd bump into more people who watched the show if I lived in a rural area, because naturally, you know, conservative base areas are more likely to watch.
01:12:31.100Goofy Gary here says, you miss Katy Perry's boyfriend?
01:14:55.440so Lisa Harrison says 51st party coming soon folks I know because I know the people yeah but
01:15:10.080in America like a canned a 51st party would not do well I can just tell you that straight out it's
01:15:16.160just not going to do well you know and again by the way if you really like America and you're like
01:15:23.580a conservative and you'd be like a really hardcore republican in the united states
01:15:27.140let's put it this way if you hate america you would want a canadian province to join
01:15:33.140and immediately you start electing democrats because that's what would happen because every
01:15:37.860canadian province instinctually tends to be more left-wing than every american state to put it that
01:15:44.500way and uh she she has 45 here says tonight's consulting and lobbying firm successfully secured
01:15:52.860more than $100 million for its collective roster of 16 clients, including the Ontario government
01:15:58.080under Ford. Well, absolutely. Corey Tanike apparently has tens of millions of dollars
01:16:05.240in personal wealth. And it's mostly from being a lobbying middleman that you come to his firm
01:16:10.600after he helps get Doug Ford elected and you pay him a bunch of money because he's going to get
01:16:14.440you the government contracts that you want. And then he comes out and he's attacking Pierre
01:16:19.760Polyev and calling him a loser. It's like, okay, I've heard some attacks from people on
01:16:25.340Pierre Polyev. And I would say, yeah, that one's true. Or that one makes sense to me. And you know,
01:16:29.780he can be criticized on this or that. But whenever he comes out and calls him a loser,
01:16:33.700and it's like Corey to Nike saying it, shut up. I don't care about Corey to Nike's opinion.
01:16:39.620I'm never going to want to elect somebody backed by Corey to Nike, because I like ethics,
01:16:45.320and I like conservatism, and he represents neither of those values. Cam TJR for $10. Thank you, Cam.
01:16:53.720Says, people need to stop acting like everything is okay just because the economy isn't collapsing.
01:16:58.700Prolonged stagnation is a massive failure, and it's destroying people's lives either way.
01:17:03.740And at the same time, people want to be able to move ahead. This whole idea, it's like we're
01:17:10.540living in the WEF world of, you know, you will own nothing and you'll be happy, where just be okay
01:17:17.580with the fact that your wealth is stagnating or diminishing over time and you can't grow anything
01:17:22.620to give to your kids and you're living paycheck to paycheck. It's such a pathetic pitch from the
01:17:27.620liberals. And that's what I covered today in my video right before, like an hour before I went
01:17:32.240live. That's what like Laura Babcock and Charlie Angus's pitches. Who cares? She literally said,
01:17:38.420who cares about the job or the money because we need to stand up for Canada, implying that she
01:17:43.300would go to grocery stores and harass store owners for selling American products. Like, yeah, let's
01:17:48.220eliminate some options for people so that the supply goes down and the prices go up. Yeah,
01:17:54.280that's a good idea, Laura. Let's just impoverish people so that you and your consulting firm
01:18:00.840can push elbows up politics. That's great because all these people who always back
01:18:06.380elbows up stuff are either not working and they're retired not that if you're retired watching the
01:18:12.040show you're likely to be supporting carney obviously not there's tons of variations to
01:18:16.040people but disproportionately retired people support carney or people in professional services
01:18:21.720or who work for the government in more white collar jobs this is the liberal voting base
01:18:27.540it's a lot of people who are in very privileged positions and i mean that not in like the way
01:18:33.700the left uses it but they're but in like a proper realistic way you're privileged to work in such a
01:18:39.480in such a sturdy job that it's very difficult to lose it's very comfy and now you're going to
01:18:45.780cram down on the people who work at steel mills screw you and that's why i can't stand about those
01:18:51.800people and they should be mocked into submission basically tiffany elizabeth says for 279 thank
01:18:58.440you tiffany do conservative party candidates know they'll lose in lpc ridings uh oh absolutely they
01:19:04.860all know they're going to lose and the thing is that they go into the race knowing they're going
01:19:08.160to lose but wanting to put on as good of a showing as possible which means that they're really a lot
01:19:13.040of the times the most admirable candidates from any party the people who know that they're going
01:19:17.340into an election to lose the race but they're going to try and put in as good of a showing for
01:19:22.000the movement to market the party it helps open up that riding a little bit in the future to
01:19:28.400slowly chip away at people's apprehensions to voting conservative, it's honestly, I hope the
01:19:33.840conservative party never takes a riding for granted. Always throw everything you've got at
01:19:38.780the riding because it helps start to change the fabric of the country, even if in that corner of
01:19:44.160the country, that's not going to be the riding that flips. It has an effect on the ridings around
01:19:48.960it. And there's a bit of a ripple effect when you really strike hard in one area, it helps you win
01:19:54.180the other riding to the east or to the west like a safe liberal riding could be right next to a
01:20:00.020swing riding you should be trying hard for both because the safe riding having a few more
01:20:04.860conservative signs on the lawns for putting a really good looking campaign together it helps
01:20:09.220encourage people in the swing riding that it's okay to vote conservative because even in that
01:20:12.640liberal progressive area there's a lot more blue signs than you usually see that's what the
01:20:17.540conservative party really needs to do um why here's the defeatist thing maybe we are a socialist
01:20:27.760communist country can't beat them uh i don't really think so if anything every time the
01:20:33.880conservatives lose it's not just because it's my knee-jerk reaction it's always based on the
01:20:38.940evidence the conservatives will lose because they make kind of a meh meh pitch they pitch the idea
01:20:47.180you should vote for us because the other guys are bad and they don't run on bold enough policies
01:20:51.660even poly of right now running on a gas tax pause or running on a industrial carbon tax elimination
01:20:59.100sure i like those things the average voter that feels very boutique and unsubstantial you need
01:21:05.540to run on a big national movement pick a massive issue and run on it and you may even start behind
01:21:12.440It may even start as a somewhat unpopular or daunting type policy to be running on, and people are not sure if they want that or not. You fight on something until you win it, where I find too often conservatives are kind of sitting there hoping the other guy loses. That's what they need to stop doing.
01:21:27.840And that's why I commend Stephen Curran and Jim Sybrose in these by-elections in North Vancouver and Beaches, East York.
01:21:33.920They put on good-looking campaigns at a time when I think conservatives need some energy back.
01:21:39.880Despite the fact the polls would indicate they should be getting far less of the vote, they're actually holding up completely fine.
01:21:57.840Say, and any failure is taken as a personal failure, hence why these writings stick liberal, because they can't accept personal failure.
01:22:21.720I don't disagree. I think a lot of lefties in these urban areas are, frankly, just really out of touch as people. And they don't see that the policies they vote for oftentimes cause more problems. But then they do the lefty thing that's typical, and they double down on the same stupid policies over and over again.
01:22:42.060and uh vin diesel here says larry brock's writing is a conservative base you are right people are
01:22:50.180saying oh could it be vulnerable he only won it last election by 12 points or so i i think it's
01:22:55.600pretty safe here's the thing it's just the demographic mix puts a bit of a ceiling on how
01:23:00.920well the liberals do if now if they win that would be a problem and i think then pure poly of would
01:23:05.700have to wonder is there something about me that's preventing people from winning but every time
01:23:10.620people have been trying to judge Polyev on by-elections up to this point. It's all by-elections
01:23:15.760that really don't matter or were obvious that we were not going to win them. Even Shikotimi,
01:23:22.040I'll just call it Lefjord because I keep messing it up. That one's not surprising. Just because
01:23:27.160it's a liberal flip from the conservatives doesn't mean that it says anything about anything. It's
01:23:32.120just that conservative MP resigns to take a Senate seat from the liberal government.
01:23:37.100what a stupid thing to do because now that looks like a tacit partnership with the liberals it's
01:23:42.980going to make the riding swing liberal it was just kind of how it was going to go there
01:23:47.300and everyone's saying nope it's going liberal um i really yeah nope no like i could see them
01:23:57.600winning but like if you're trying to speak with authority that it's going liberal you're ignoring
01:24:02.060a lot of history in that riding for conservatives. Jim Bale says, imagine Wayne Gretzky ran as an MP
01:24:08.520for Brantford Brant South. I have actually heard that that could end up happening for the
01:24:13.660Conservative Party, that Wayne Gretzky or someone related to Wayne Gretzky might end up running as
01:24:18.880the Conservative Party candidate, which would be interesting because they'd probably attack him
01:24:22.580for his connection to Trump. Although Mark Carney has connections to Trump and it really doesn't
01:24:29.200matter. And again, at the end of the day, the average voter, if let's say Wayne Gretzky ran
01:24:33.800Brantford Brant South, it's Wayne Gretzky. You're going to vote for him if you're like an average
01:24:39.200voter. You're a working class guy. You're voting for Wayne Gretzky. No media scare story of like,
01:24:44.720oh, he was at Trump's inauguration. Yeah, there was Democrats at Trump's inauguration.
01:24:49.660Left wingers show up to Trump's inauguration. He's a friend of his because he used to,
01:24:54.420he was on the new york rangers of course he was going of course him and trump are somewhat friendly
01:25:00.000they probably talked when he was run when he was a hockey player that's not anything to anybody and
01:25:06.580he would probably win that thing and i think that'd be fun it would just depend on if he would
01:25:09.880uh walk he'd want to um walk away from his quiet life right now
01:25:15.480and altruism 1776 for 6.99 says potus isn't canada's problem sovereignty is already compromised
01:25:24.260by the ccp infiltration irgc russian and mexican cartels uh yeah to a certain extent that's true
01:25:31.340now trump's still a problem when it comes to tariffs uh i don't like the tariffs they're bad
01:25:37.380at the same time it's like the problem is we're not weathering it very well because of the baked
01:25:42.500in problems we currently have and we can't get a trade deal because of so much leverage we lack
01:25:48.360from having a bad economy. And let's be clear, elbows up voters do not want to sign a trade deal
01:25:54.400with Trump. They don't want to sign one because they hate his guts that much. They would rather
01:25:58.860sign nothing ever than actually sign something. They would rather sign no deal at all, even if
01:26:05.320a good deal was on the table. And Carney is reacting to that by not signing a deal. And in
01:26:09.920fact, it's not even trying to negotiate a good deal. Because think about it, if he negotiated
01:26:13.620a good deal, the elbows up people don't want him to sign it anyways. He's more popular by
01:26:48.080People are saying, will Polly have leave tomorrow? No, these writings don't matter in the way that people think that they would. Update for North Vancouver Capilano, we have Brandon Cayley at 56% and Conservative Stephen Curran at 28.9, Greens at 10.2, NDP at 3.5, but we are still only 9% counted so far, still very early there.
01:27:11.280And again, none of these ridings I was predicting a conservative victory for.
01:27:14.960It was all more about how much are the Liberals going to lose off of their vote from previous times.
01:27:20.460Beaches, East York. Tanvir is at 54%, which if that holds up, that is 13% less than they got in 2025.
01:27:28.180And Shikatimi, Le Fjord, that one we can almost start checking on.
01:27:31.780Liberals are going to win it in the high 40s, probably by the end of the night.
01:27:34.860flip from the conservatives, but that has more to do with local issues with Richard Martell
01:27:40.280stepping down than any actual national trend here.
01:30:52.300For Carney, no deal is better than a good deal.
01:30:54.660and his own voters a lot of the elbows up people will just keep saying that it's totally fine for
01:30:59.480him to do that i'm wondering though if like we see in the uh like we see in um
01:31:06.160in some of the new polling if business liberals start to really get tired of that shtick by carny
01:31:13.540and they start kind of slowly exiting out the back of the party that's the thing is with the
01:31:18.860business liberal types who vote liberal right now they could always switch to the conservatives or
01:31:23.740not vote in the next election, but they're not going to loudly announce that they're leaving.
01:31:27.820They're just going to see there's no point in voting for Carney because he's not bringing
01:31:30.660home the bacon and just kind of slowly drift away.
01:31:48.720Heck yeah, someone here said they voted in North Vancouver. I don't even care who you
01:31:52.620voted for. That's just funny to see it. That's just funny to see somebody who actually voted
01:31:57.020in the writing in chat. I guess by the numbers, it's bound to happen, but it's good that you
01:32:01.660shouted it out. Altruism1776 says, liberal supporters suffer from a textbook Stockholm
01:32:07.120syndrome. COVID was what initiated the loss of many Canadians' humility, humanity, and critical
01:32:13.900thinking. I think there was, there is a sort of type of voter who really wants to feel superior
01:32:21.020by siding with the government. Now, I know that sounds simplistic, but when you break a lot of
01:32:25.940these people down, they act like you're stupid because you don't watch the sources that they
01:32:30.640watch, that you don't trust what the CBC says, as if they're just so intellectual for believing
01:32:35.220what the CBC says. It's so obnoxious. And a lot of these voters, they will literally vote to solve
01:32:41.380problems that their own votes have been creating over time, thinking that this time around it's
01:32:46.960going to get better. That's the funny thing. Every time Carney gets a little bit of a bump
01:32:51.500from some job growth, we're still in a hole. We have double the unemployment rate of the United
01:32:58.400States. And we act like we're somehow big dogging the US every time we create a few thousand,
01:33:04.320you know, tens of thousands of jobs, many of which are probably summer jobs that are going to go away
01:33:08.720because seasonal adjustment is terrible. Have you guys ever actually seen how seasonal adjustments
01:33:14.280work. The amount of stipulations around seasonal adjustments make it purely useless. Most jobs
01:33:20.860that are seasonal are counted as jobs and not seasonally adjusted out. So the thing is, in
01:33:25.840September, late September, October, we're going to start losing a lot of the temporary jobs,
01:33:30.900especially from the census, World Cup, stampede numbers that we saw. Those ones are going to go
01:33:36.280away, and the media is not going to mention the fact we lost a bunch of jobs late in the year.
01:33:41.200they're going to say well those were just summer jobs even though they counted the summer jobs to
01:33:44.980mark carney's credit at the beginning of summer and when they fall off they're going to be like
01:33:48.660well what do you expect their summer jobs like yeah that's what i was saying that's why we
01:33:52.140shouldn't have been celebrating in the first place you could read where all the jobs are coming from
01:33:56.120hospitality food services retail what do you think those are permanent jobs that are going to be
01:34:02.720around all year long like there's going to be just all the restaurants are going to stay open
01:34:06.700during the winter even if it's a little roadhouse stopover before you get to the lake
01:34:10.860yeah that one's just going to keep employing 80 people over the summer but yeah it's also stupid
01:34:16.060so jason curling here says for two dollars thanks for all the information
01:34:26.400absolutely and thank you for watching the show
01:34:29.080this person says and i actually kind of i actually somewhat agree with this
01:34:35.940what happened to poly is that he has become boringly repetitive he needs to use everything
01:34:40.640he has on Carney can't hold back now. Now, that is a good criticism. I would say the message is
01:34:46.500getting stale and you can't keep repeating the same thing because it doesn't even matter that
01:34:51.860the things that you're pitching would help. People don't want to hear small solutions repeated over
01:34:56.960and over again. They can get a little bit grating over time. Again, run on something big because
01:35:01.940in by-elections, in any general election, when a volunteer goes to the door, giving them nothing
01:35:08.460interesting to run on is like giving a soldier a rifle with only a couple bullets in it you're not
01:35:14.020going to get very far with it because not that many people are motivated to run out the house
01:35:18.600and get rid of the industrial carbon tax i'd get rid of it tomorrow if i could but people want to
01:35:24.320run to the polling station to vote for a massive tax cut or because you're pro-life and they're
01:35:28.960pro-life voter and they usually sit it out because there's no pro-life candidates or you're like
01:35:33.320wanting to slash immigration even deeper or you're a super hard on drugs hard on crime
01:35:38.680conservative but if you kind of run on moderately conservative policies it's kind of
01:35:43.540it's kind of who cares it's why mitt romney loses the presidential election in 2012
01:35:50.620what he was running on was kind of who's gonna who's gonna stop their car and vote for you
01:35:57.700when there's only a couple hours left to vote and football is on that's what you got to kind
01:36:01.500think about it as your your platform needs to be interesting enough for someone to spend their
01:36:06.620normal life to go and vote for it there's a lot stop chasing only the voters who vote every election
01:36:11.500there are a fixed amount of people and they don't tend to change how they vote a lot the people who
01:36:15.380do change who they vote is the people who usually don't vote those are the people that you want you
01:36:20.240want to figure out how to connect with those working class guys who don't usually vote
01:36:24.920uh brenda weep says why i have jumped channels yours has gone very quiet i'm sorry
01:36:33.020i'm not sure what you mean by that neon dream says why what do you have for breakfast please
01:36:38.220advise i did not have breakfast today uh
01:36:42.180uh someone's asking how the conservative numbers are looking compared to the election so i'll give
01:36:52.860you that update in a second here. So let's look back over here now. And so we're getting a little
01:36:58.200bit more of it in right now. So Brandon Cayley, right now, he's only a couple points behind,
01:37:03.780or I think that's technically right where the Liberals were at last election, North Vancouver,
01:37:07.920Capilano. Stephen Curran is a few points behind where he was at last election. Greens are
01:37:13.760definitely up, and actually the NDP is doing worse than they did in 2020, uh, in 2025. In
01:37:21.380Beaches, East York, the Liberal is down by 13 points from where the Liberal was in 2025. That
01:37:27.860was, uh, Nate Erskine-Smith, who was previously the candidate. That updated again. Um, Jim
01:37:34.800Seibro's is a few points down from what the Liberals were, what the Conservatives were at
01:37:38.580last election as well. And Chiquitimi-Lefjord, Regis Godrelt, again, I'm terrible with French
01:37:46.520names, he's massively down. The Conservatives won this riding last time. But again, this riding is
01:37:51.700more reflective of Richard Martel left, and voters didn't want to vote for another Conservative after
01:37:57.060a Conservative MP just left for no reason to take a Senate appointment. So, you know, we'll still,
01:38:04.140we'll keep monitoring uh north Vancouver Capilano but that one will take a while to actually leak
01:38:09.880in because we're still not even a quarter of the vote there yet and depending on what parts of the
01:38:14.220riding they've counted it depends on how things are actually going to shape up by the end of the
01:38:19.240night so the walt says for $6.99 CBC propaganda strikes again unreal how low IQ these folks can
01:38:25.920be and not see what's going on retard or retarded yeah like again there's a lot of conventional
01:38:33.420wisdom with liberal voters that it's going to be very difficult to kind of shake them out of
01:38:38.040as time goes on. The elbows up thing is strong. And again, we're having this by-election in the
01:38:43.740context of Carney walking away from the trade deal, which probably helped scare a bunch of
01:38:49.840lefty voters into voting liberal again, when they may have been willing to vote green or NDP in some
01:38:55.120of these ridings. And even then, in somewhere like Beaches, East York, the NDP is down from
01:38:59.800where they were previously raptor fan says why we need another ppc video well there's nothing
01:39:07.160really to talk about with ppc honestly they're just not they're just like non-existent these days
01:39:11.980um altruism says you're a good man keep uh keep the great work up your voice along with the others
01:39:25.560are more critical than ever. My fellow Canadians, we must unite now more than ever and disavow the
01:39:31.340liberal propaganda. And I think, again, one of the best things that can happen right now
01:39:35.300is that conservatives need to start, and I think even from the party level,
01:39:40.120start mocking the insane elbows up liberal policies and liberal rhetoric online, not from
01:39:46.060just the liberal party, but from the Laura Babcock types. Because the thing is, people don't like
01:39:51.180being associated in a party with people who are crazy and i think more liberals need to realize
01:39:56.100you are in the party of laura babcock it's not the party of mark carney mark carney does what
01:40:02.460laura babcock wants because he is terrified of the laura babcocks of the world and that's why
01:40:08.420we can't get a that's why we can't get a trade deal even a good trade deal would never be good
01:40:14.240enough for us for a laura babcock type so carney's in between this current situation where it's maybe
01:40:20.000benefiting him tonight uh pulling out of the trade agreement and not signing it but in the long run
01:40:26.400he's in this rock and a hard place type scenario where if the economy starts really really lagging
01:40:32.320because of the trade friction with the united states and we start like sort of losing ground
01:40:38.000that will start hurting him in the polls but if he signs a trade deal
01:40:41.360that will also hurt him in the polls it's a very weird catch-22 um
01:40:50.000ocular pundit says poly of still needs more media amplification
01:41:02.740doac was okay and rogan but it's short-lived and even the rogan thing i didn't think it ever
01:41:08.860really mattered that much if he went on the show before the election a lot of people said well if
01:41:13.820he went on rogan then he would have won but because he refused to go on rogan or pbd before
01:41:18.440the last election. That's why he lost. Hard disagree. I don't think that has anything to do
01:41:24.860with anything. The last election, the Conservatives lost because they kept talking about the carbon
01:41:29.400tax when they needed to be running on something much bigger. And they just never really got around
01:41:35.680to it. And so people are asking about results again. We're getting a little bit more in North
01:41:42.440Vancouver. But every time we check in, it's only like one more poll counted so far. So it's not
01:41:47.040really worth looking at at the moment and everywhere else is kind of where we assumed
01:41:51.000that it was going to end up now um okay beaches use york the liberals are down by 13 points
01:41:57.060liberals are picking up chica timmy because of richard martell resigning and the trade war
01:42:01.800and north vancouver is still a little bit too early to actually say how it's trending that
01:42:07.220doesn't mean liberals aren't winning they're obviously winning so nobody don't take me out
01:42:11.120of context on that thinking that i'm like thinking they were going to win we went into this thinking
01:42:15.720that there's a two ridings out of a three are guaranteed and then i didn't quite know what was
01:42:21.040going to happen in left fjord i actually thought maybe things could consolidate over to the block
01:42:25.660but i knew the conservatives were not going to win it we're just again seeing what's going on when it
01:42:30.100comes to where liberal votes are bleeding off to or if they are staying united gta they're bleeding
01:42:36.280off to the left a little bit in north vancouver capilano still too early mostly staying united
01:42:42.100there. Frank Vaughn, fellow YouTuber Frank Vaughn here says, the liberals are incredibly strong and
01:42:48.160my incredulity is powerless to stop it. Yeah, it feels like that a lot of the time. Louis Esther
01:42:55.840Estevez says, here lost his race when he ran away from being compared to Trump. He should have
01:43:01.340embraced the Canadian Trump take and run with it instead. I just really, it's just really not,
01:43:06.040But I don't think that's the right take. The thing is that Trump is genuinely unpopular with the average Canadian voter in Canada. Go talk to your neighbors. A lot of people irrationally hate him. Even many people who still vote federal conservatives do not like Donald Trump. And for some reason, some reasons, it's good to dislike Trump. Like, I don't like the tariffs. I'm not going to say I like the tariffs. My goodness, I don't like them at all.
01:43:29.720But what you need is more so you just need to have, you need to be your own man with Polyev. You don't want to be Canadian Trump. You want to be your own politician, but you want to be audacious and bold. Maybe that's a better way of saying it. Trump is audacious and bold, and that's why he wins elections. Polyev needs to be audacious and bold. Not that he needs to emulate Trump. I don't think that would be effective at all in Canada.
01:43:55.140What you want to do is you want to run on ideas that are infectious and that allow you to kind of control the narrative, where I find these days he runs on kind of minor policies, minor changes here and there.
01:44:08.560And I think it creates an environment that makes it feel like the conservatives are tired.
01:44:15.560And Mark Carney's dynamic, because he's doing things in government, whereas the conservatives keep pitching the same thing about the industrial carbon tax.
01:44:22.340That's what PolyEv needs to be changing, is stop posting the same sort of things about affordability if you're not going to run on a bold affordability platform.
01:45:56.160when I ran for the Calgary Signal Hill nomination?
01:45:59.200Or are you talking about like Frank Vaughn then says, I think he could get away with signing a deal. His people would pivot and even think a rational thought and not even think a rational thought in the process. They'd cheer it.
01:46:12.960sure maybe some of them would still cheer it on the elbows up left but i think at the same time
01:46:18.120it would end the need to vote for carney in their minds so many of the kind of casual elbows up
01:46:24.940liberals would go back towards the ndp and and the greens or the bloc quebecois but when it comes to
01:46:31.820conserve like uh when it comes to uh like the heart obviously the hardcores like laura babcock
01:46:38.220will justify anything Mark Carney does, Klaus Kellerman, Elaria A. They'll always say whatever
01:46:43.700Carney does is good. It's the kind of more less bought in liberal elbows up voters who were truly
01:46:51.320there for the elbows up stuff. And if it ends, some of them will be mad at Carney if the deal's
01:46:56.000not good enough. Other ones will say, well, that's good on Carney. But then they'll kind of like walk
01:47:00.860away after that knowing that the need, the crisis need to vote liberal is now gone.
01:47:08.220Dan says do you see Pierre learning from his mistakes and losses I'm not seeing a creative
01:47:24.940or effective campaign team now there are some good people in Pierre Paulyov's office and many
01:47:30.040times he's saying and doing smart things it's more so that the small victories are proving he
01:47:37.220can get victories but it's again it's not like he's playing a bad game day to day it's more so
01:47:42.300that you need that thing that rips up the turf and allows you to actually be able to win more votes
01:47:48.340you know i mean in the sense that a really bold idea running on any bold ideas you guys could
01:47:53.540easily come up with ones at home yourself it jars people out of their normal voting patterns but if
01:47:58.680what you're doing is simply saying i'm a step right of the liberals what's the point of voting
01:48:04.840for you it's not different enough and it doesn't galvanize the type of guy who normally sits out
01:48:10.860an election you need to figure out what causes those people to not vote and you need to figure
01:48:16.020out what kind of uh what kind of campaign what kind of policies they want don't try and go for
01:48:21.120the mushy middle mushy middle means that you're going to be losing voters off your right flank
01:48:25.400saying what's the point of voting politics is 90 about getting your base out you run on things that
01:48:31.540your base really, really likes. You don't feed your base enough so they don't starve and then
01:48:37.140try and win mushy middle voters. That's what I think they tried to do in 2025. Their tax cuts
01:48:42.420were calibrated to not freak out anyone who's worried about the deficit. They ran on social
01:48:48.480policies that were mild changes. They ran on immigration cuts that were mildly better than
01:48:53.900the Liberals. But who shows up for mildly better than what is currently in office? People show up
01:48:59.420for big change or they really don't show up unless they're voters who just show up every election no
01:49:04.360matter what primetime 1169 for 1399 says carney is as good a negotiator as alex alex baldwin would
01:49:13.320be at a gun safety instruct as a gun safety instructor i assume you mean alec baldwin uh
01:49:18.620but yeah he's carney's a bad negotiator it's one of those like things it's almost trite to say
01:49:23.400these days but it's wild that so many people actually believe that he's a good negotiator
01:49:28.200like people rely people think he's still capable of getting a good deal with trump you see polls
01:49:33.260go out and like 50 60 percent of people still say that he's he can potentially get a good deal with
01:49:39.260donald trump and it's like well what evidence do we have of that i don't even think he's trying to
01:49:43.540get a good deal because again if he actually successfully got a good deal he would have to
01:49:49.180sign it because you can't just walk away from a good deal so i think he's been crafting deliberately
01:49:54.720bad deals this entire time is to give himself a permission structure to then walk away at the last
01:50:00.800moment. This is partially true too. Conservatives lost the election because Jagmeet wrecked their
01:50:16.320party into getting no seats. Yeah, part of it was also the left just kind of consolidating
01:50:22.600around the liberals because of really bad um ndp campaigns frankly like we're seeing in north
01:50:28.380vancouver capilano here just an embarrassingly bad campaign by the ndp only getting 3.8 percent
01:50:35.200of the vote in the vancouver area like this is the province where the ndp are supposed to be
01:50:40.840getting their biggest gains in the national polls and then they put up a pathetic activist
01:50:45.420with no appeal to voters whatsoever and it's letting the liberals basically keep a lot of
01:50:52.100that NDP vote it's looking like. Frank Vaughn says Pierre could have taken the piece making
01:50:57.940slick diplomacy angle blaming the liberals for destroying our best relationship embracing the
01:51:03.240long relationship with the U.S. I think there is a way of basically running on what Frank's saying
01:51:09.120but in a way that's palatable to Canadians in this moment. Frank says he could have been
01:51:14.840sophisticated well-spoken bold Canadian and I think the way he should have pitched himself is
01:51:20.400that I'm the realistic one who is going to be able to get a deal where Mark Carney obviously
01:51:25.900is getting more out of fighting with Trump than he is actually you know you'd have to do it right
01:51:30.940because again there's so many TDS voters out there who will immediately freak out if you're saying
01:51:35.140that you're going to be friendly with Trump but you just want to pitch yourself as I'm a fighter
01:51:39.240and you need a fighter to you know get a good deal with Trump because he's just a very contentious
01:51:45.380person Mark Carney pretending that he's going to go in and you know swagger into Trump's office
01:55:32.420and like murder them in their sleep unless they all keep voting liberal or some other left-wing
01:55:38.160party like yeah like toronto is probably set to re-elect olivia chow they the people just do are
01:55:45.680are they care more about what a politician says they are than what a politician does you should
01:55:51.480never care what a thing says it is the thing a thing really is what it does and what the liberal
01:55:57.660party does is spends a lot of money puts the country into debt like you know like massively
01:56:04.860inflates the currency that's what the liberal party does but people trust what mark carney
01:56:10.160says that he does rather than looking at the record which makes everything so maddening in
01:56:15.000politics that people are saying well you know well carney is going to stand up to trump because he
01:56:19.400says he is he's not standing up to trump he's just not signing a deal which is a very different thing
01:56:26.260that, in fact, hurts us in the medium to long term.
01:56:30.120Frank Vaughn says, going back to a conversation earlier in chat, he says,
01:56:34.340Yes, Calgary Signal Hill, you were sheep crooked because there's a little too much off-script in you
01:56:42.520and they need to go off-script, let Pierre run his mouth, go for the conflict, take some risks.
01:56:47.540And absolutely, the best Pierre is the Pierre who fights with the media when they say stupid things
01:56:52.400rather than needing to be careful and sound very, you know, clever and rehearsed and using alliterations in his scripts and whatnot, fake phony frauds and, you know, liberal fat cats and whatnot.
01:57:07.180Like, drop the kind of scripted talking points. Just talk. Run on something interesting to talk about.
01:57:17.420If you have to explain to people how much money the industrial carbon tax would save them if we cut it, and it takes you more than five seconds, don't. It's too complicated. Because the thing is, that's the thing that the liberals love to do. They love to run on small little taxes here and there, because it's hard to run against small little taxes here and there, because most people don't notice them. They just notice that prices are going up.
01:57:42.540So the Conservatives should run against the income tax because it's an easier, big chunk of taxes to run against.
01:57:56.300And this is a good point by Vince of New Scotland.
01:57:59.520So Carney flipped Trump the middle finger, walking away from what was supposed to be a deal.
01:58:04.060The next deal around, that deal may not be so good.
01:58:06.860And a lot of it is that we've just been losing a lot of leverage over time.
01:58:10.940Again, it's crazy that liberal elbows-up voters forgive Carney for giving Trump concessions for nothing.
01:58:18.480The thing that they would have fear-mongered that Pierre Polly would do, Carney literally has done, and none of them seem to care.
01:58:26.000But these are the voters who would rate themselves most highly knowledgeable about the current situation because they watch CBC, don't you know?
01:58:33.420They're actually educating you when you ask them a polling question because they just know so much and they're going to inform you.
01:58:40.080That's the problem we have, is we have a lot of very arrogant voters who think they're informed, which is very different from actually being informed.
01:58:53.320Zane Carson says, there's no national campaign now. It's timing. By-elections don't work for the opposition.
01:58:58.940I would somewhat agree. At the same time, we still do see, other than North Vancouver Capilano, I'm going to chalk this one up to NDP still sucking at their jobs.
01:59:08.900liberals didn't gain in north vancouver capilano which doesn't mean that the which means that the
01:59:15.280national polling showing them up 17 points is wrong other again this by-election in beaches
01:59:20.600east york shows they are bleeding over to the ndp but again that doesn't support the liberals are up
01:59:26.48017 points and left yard you could say oh this shows the liberals are massively up because
01:59:31.960they had 30 of the vote in this riding last time and now they have 51 i think that's probably going
01:59:37.480be more local, something I can't quite understand as a non-Quebec voter. But again, this is more
01:59:43.000about Richard Martel leaving. These other two ridings, I would say, are more representative
01:59:46.980of where the country is at. Either things have basically not changed, or the Liberals are in
01:59:52.800fact even a little bit down, bleeding to the left. Now, that doesn't exactly help the Conservatives
01:59:56.920very much. If the Liberals are just bleeding to the left, obviously they need to gain votes too.
02:00:01.960But we're not in the situation that the polls would have indicated. Some people were predicting,
02:00:06.820oh yeah the actually the liberals are going to win 67 percent of the vote in north vancouver
02:00:11.280capilano and they're going to win 50 73 percent in beaches east york because they're basing it off
02:00:17.020of what nanos ecos liaison are saying and that would technically be true if you only looked at
02:00:23.500those pollsters that are showing these big high teen uh leads for the liberals seven plus 17 plus
02:00:30.24020 plus 19 yeah the liberals should be getting 75 percent of the vote in somewhere like beaches
02:00:35.460East York. It's not happening because those polls are not accurate. The Liberals are ahead by five
02:00:40.520to seven points, and the election results tonight basically back that up. Even in ridings where
02:00:47.120there's not really a reason to vote Conservative because they're not going to win, the Conservatives
02:00:51.180are barely down, or they're pretty much where they were at last time. Shikotimi is just a
02:00:56.640completely different story because, again, people are ticked off that Richard Martel resigned for
02:01:01.800no reason, and they weren't going to show up to vote for another Conservative because of that.
02:01:05.460um frank vaughn i always i always like frank vaughn's thoughts even though me and frank don't
02:01:11.000even agree on everything i just think that frank is one of the more thoughtful uh creators out
02:01:16.060there i don't mean other creators are not thoughtful i just mean that he's one of the
02:01:19.620people who will talk about one topic in a video and dive really really deep on it and i agree
02:01:25.080with him many times i disagree with him sometimes but you can never fault that he doesn't have a
02:01:30.260very detailed take on the issues that he speaks on. He says, man, I think the liberals have a
02:01:36.520bottomless scapegoat with Trump. Carney can blame any and all problems on Trump, and I think most
02:01:41.340of his base will cheer national unity. I agree with that, but the problem is that if a slight
02:01:48.400portion of your base starts getting sick of you and they start leaving, you just need to lose
02:01:53.020three to four percent of the vote, four to five percent of the vote as the liberals to the
02:01:57.460conservatives and you're in a race where the conservatives could win because if the liberals
02:02:01.920like what innovative research are saying and what angus reed abacus data has them above 10 points
02:02:07.440but we're in the trade war bubble where that's going to boost them up a bit once we get down to
02:02:12.540more realistic polling after this kind of washes over again they'll probably be back back down to
02:02:17.280plus six plus seven plus six plus seven if you have a four point swing from liberals to conservatives
02:02:24.900conservatives would be leading i'm not trying to do some hopium thing and say no no that's totally
02:02:29.300going to happen because i said it's realistic i'm saying that basically today at least proves that
02:02:35.600yes the national polling picture is not what many of these bad pollsters are saying it's a far more
02:02:41.180realistic gap and because it's a realistic gap there are realistic plans that can be implemented
02:02:46.580to bridge the gap. Like, again, running on a
02:21:05.140D. Avagil47 here says for $5. Thank you for that.
02:21:09.360Wyatt, I have come to understand that Canadians, like most people,
02:21:12.440prefer sweet lies than bitter truths, sadly.
02:21:15.960A certain type of Canadian, I still do think it's a little bit of a problem
02:21:19.420where you let the lies win when you don't run a platform that's bold enough.
02:21:25.500that jars people out of their normal voting patterns because it's like saying i wonder why
02:21:30.060people aren't really voting differently when we don't give them something different to vote for
02:21:34.700when the conservatives are running on slightly bigger tax cuts under fifty thousand dollars
02:21:38.940than the than the liberals yes that's preferable but if you're not a you know like why bother
02:21:45.980campaigning hard for slight difference that's always the problem uh nathan w7r9u says for 6.99
02:21:54.460I think Pierre Polyev is to associate with Trump to win over suburban voters in Ontario.
02:22:02.100Oh, I think, I know what you're saying. Sorry. I think Pierre Polyev is too associated with Trump
02:22:06.660to win over suburban voters in Ontario. It really depends because the conservatives do win some
02:22:11.680suburbs around Ontario. They won Windsor and Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore or whatever
02:22:17.820in the last election. And those are ridings that hadn't gone conservative since literally the 50s
02:22:23.500in the 30s it's a type of voter that the conservatives are good at connecting with
02:22:27.440but they need to make not let the liberals make the issue trump next time and they are capable of
02:22:33.900doing that but they kind of sat around floundering now cory tonight says oh the conservative party
02:22:38.580should have gone harder at trump no because the conservative voters aren't motivated by elbows up
02:22:44.300stuff you need to run on something else but for some reason we always think well if we run on
02:22:48.480what the liberals are doing, then we're going to win. It's like, what? You can't just do what the
02:22:53.680other guy's doing to win. If people already are getting it from the incumbent, they're going to
02:22:58.560vote for the incumbent again. Brenda Wiebe for $6.99 again. Thank you, Brenda. OMG, you just
02:23:04.520nailed it. The parties can't handle anything new. And again, it's the advisors that can't handle
02:23:09.820anything new. It's so often people who are incentivized to never admit that they've been
02:23:14.240wrong about anything because at that point you're basically saying you should probably fire me
02:23:18.720because i've been basically screwing your entire political career here for the past several years
02:23:24.060because i've been telling you to do the wrong thing the entire time that's always the problem
02:23:29.640like people in government people in politics hate admitting that they've done anything wrong
02:23:35.200um raptor guy 86 for two dollars says trump will be gone in 2029 and that's the hilarious thing it
02:23:42.340seems like liberals don't understand that trump is a temporary president just as all presidents
02:23:48.460are temporary in america they seem to think this idea that we need to like be like piling up sandbags
02:23:54.740from now until like forever or else we're going to get invaded like laura babcock in her video
02:24:01.220today that i critique literally said that they're trying to create a permission structure to invade
02:24:06.040canada by trump posting a tweet about a bald eagle attacking a canadian goose apparently that
02:24:13.520he's trying to create a permission structure for tanks to roll over the border and invade
02:24:17.800saskatchewan it's delusional that these are the type of people who are voting carny based on
02:24:24.960fake issues based on things that are literally fake issues these are things that are not happening
02:24:30.040are not going to happen and people are voting for them they are actual conspiracy theorists
02:24:35.520who believe that Carney is like secretly holding back the American military from invading and if
02:24:41.280we let Polyev in he's going to open up the gates and say American military come in that is genuinely
02:24:46.920what some of these people vote like they believe it's wild to experience yeah uh sleeping uh
02:24:54.500sleeping giant says the matrix is real in a certain sense you are kind of correct in the
02:25:00.560sense that there are people who literally are living in a fake world uh it's an old scott adams
02:25:07.020line that i think is good in in politics you really do see that we're all sitting in the same
02:25:12.780theater looking at the same screen but we're all watching different movies in a lot of ways
02:25:18.320there are people who will interpret the same fact pattern in wildly different ways it's nuts
02:25:24.340um i know like spider uh a Canadian spiderman says what exactly is he holding the u.s army
02:25:32.060back with haha and that's always the funny thing we always we always act like well like somehow
02:25:37.520Carney's standing up for Canada and if the conservatives win they would let Trump in it's
02:25:42.000like what holds back Trump if he could just do it which in a certain sense he could just do it if
02:25:48.000he wanted to what stops him from rolling the military over the border nothing so it should
02:25:52.960tell you he doesn't actually want the country but you will have voters forever living in this fantasy
02:25:58.360world that they're like these scrappy you know red dawn type rebels standing up to invading armies
02:26:05.160from abroad it's like what are you talking about you're sitting in your uh on your couch at home
02:26:10.400uh but like working your remote consulting job
02:26:13.920and when popcorn power says the moment russia knocks at canada's door
02:26:22.380canadians will roll out the red carpet for the u.s military to protect them
02:26:26.420and that is a problem with the current trade situation they have been paying for our national
02:26:33.520security so when american voters see the cbc is saying that 9-11 isn't a real terrorist attack
02:26:40.480or they didn't want to refer to 9-11 as a terrorist attack and then we're saying that
02:26:44.740we're being oppressed by the terrorists and a lot of American voters know that America basically
02:26:48.980pays for the safety of most of the western world they they get a little annoyed and they don't
02:26:54.640really want to come to Canada's defense because the way elbows up voters talk about America
02:27:00.060is so wildly different from reality you don't have to like everything about America but
02:27:04.920we can at least acknowledge i'm sorry america is not a boogeyman doesn't mean you have to like the
02:27:11.240tariffs doesn't mean you have to think they're fully justified in any way i don't think they're
02:27:14.440justified uh you know but in the american mind they see them as somewhat justified and that's
02:27:19.880what america canadians don't understand there are many americans who support the trade war
02:27:25.300and you have to understand they don't hate canada they just think that this is the rest of the
02:27:29.740world's been ripping them off and america pays for everyone's safety and everyone's a bunch of
02:27:33.260And the liberals aren't exactly helping their case by basically leaning into the stereotype that the rest of the world doesn't respect America, despite the fact that America does do a lot of stuff for them.
02:27:46.120Ernst Savvy says, now that the Gordie Howe Bridge is open, Trump will send the troops. He can be more efficient now, lol.
02:27:53.980Yes, actually, Carney has screwed us all by opening up the Gordie Howe Bridge.
02:27:59.580Neon Dream says, where do the conservatives go from here?
02:28:03.260I don't, again, from here, it's not like anything's really changed. Basically, the entire national picture looks basically the same it was yesterday. If anything, again, what the conservatives can take away is that the polling showing the liberals massively ahead is just wrong.
02:28:21.420They're just not. Basically, the polling showing that they're above by about 5% or 6%, those are the realistic polls. Any polls showing the plus 17s are not correct, and the by-election results pretty much back up that fact.
02:28:35.600There was a regional collapse in Shikotimi. That's very different from Beaches and North Vancouver, where either North Vancouver, basically nothing has changed. And then in Beaches, East York, the Liberals have bled off a little bit towards the they bled off like 13 points to the NDP. And the Conservatives are pretty much at where they were at last time with a little bit of a drop because it's a by-election and Conservative voters or whatever party is not the incumbent or the safe incumbent.
02:29:04.860they're very unlikely to show up so that's that so the conservatives can rest easy in the fact that
02:29:12.140no the plus 17 polls are not correct they're not collapsing they're not really moving anywhere and
02:29:18.160that's why they have to address okay we're not falling apart but it feels like we're sitting
02:29:22.900in neutral now how are we going to get out nathan uh w7r90 says what is happening with your lawsuit
02:29:32.600Now, I have to be very careful how I talk about this because I cannot give the other side any information whatsoever, not that they'd be watching this live stream.
02:29:40.240It might be resolved very soon, very much in my favor with the guy from the billionaire guy who's trying to sue me, who owns a real estate firm in China and Canada.
02:29:53.060That's all I'm going to say. It might go well for me in the near future, but obviously I can't go into too much detail there.
02:30:02.020ariel sky says well canada's done after these stupid by-elections i can tell you we're not
02:30:14.480we're not like let's put it this way was the liberal party done after the battle river crow
02:30:19.580foot by-election where polyev got the same vote pretty much as damian corrected and the liberal
02:30:25.040vote technically collapsed because it went towards bonnie critchley as an independent who only got
02:30:29.400nine percent no liberal voters and just voters in general didn't show up in that by-election
02:30:34.920because it's not a it doesn't mean anything and like you know that one showed that the
02:30:40.160conservatives hadn't fallen because poly have basically got the same vote conservatives in
02:30:43.960both of the two main by-elections pretty much got the same vote as last time in one riding the
02:30:49.520liberals fell quite a bit and in the other they've been they've basically stayed the same so in a
02:30:55.280certain sense Canadian politics is quite stable at the moment and the conservatives are not done
02:31:01.000by any means they just need to figure out a way of getting momentum at this point uh but yeah like
02:31:06.940don't don't base off what's happening in the country based off two safe liberal elections
02:31:11.120two safe liberal by-elections and a conservative uh like loss where the conservative like outgoing
02:31:18.220MP basically stuck a metal bar in his own party spokes to make sure they didn't win uh the felon
02:31:24.440attorney 199 says why uh why you don't think boomers will save canada uh well i don't think
02:31:33.200that i don't think it's i don't i just don't think that boomers aren't the problem and they're not
02:31:39.500the solution either boomer voters people above the age of 65 are voting liberal more disproportionately
02:31:46.840than the rest of the country um but i think it's just the the issue type it's this it's the voter
02:31:53.480that's retired who is more able to make trump their main issue whereas other voters existing
02:31:59.200in the economy still are far more likely to be voting conservative because like you know they
02:32:05.580actually have to deal with canadian politics as it really is but if you're retired you can kind of
02:32:11.460take certain things for granted you you're going to have an income you can't lose your job because
02:32:16.360you don't have a job you're living on a pension and naturally if you're above the age of 60 or 50
02:32:21.380and you're watching my show, you're obviously disproportionately very conservative voting
02:32:25.980because it's a conservative show. But it is true, generally speaking, older voters are voting
02:32:30.640liberal these days. But again, it's one of those things where older voters have always kind of
02:32:35.760voted a little bit more liberal than every other demographic. Conservatives used to do better with
02:32:40.760them, but it's the kind of CBC vote that's going against the conservatives. Now, I don't agree with
02:32:46.520what new right people on X say, that now we should double down on Zoomer voters and we should
02:32:51.380be running like an age class war type election next time. Like, no, I don't think that's what
02:32:57.980it is. You just need to circumvent the CBC vote by resisting the topics the liberals want to run on
02:33:05.400that are very pleasing to the CBC voter. Someone says David Suzuki is a clown and always has been.
02:33:37.380And again, hating the United States and wanting the US to lose in this trade dispute is not the same thing as wanting Canada to win. I want Canada to win. But elbows up liberals don't care if Canada wins or not. They just don't like Donald Trump and they want to use this time to like throw their elbows up in the air and tell Trump that he sucks and he's a big orange stupid man.
02:34:01.080it's like well that's great now how are we going to get a good trade deal and they can say Trump's
02:34:06.120irrational Trump you can't make a good deal with Trump and it's like isn't that convenient
02:34:09.860Carney gets to run on the guy to deal with Trump and to get a deal and then he doesn't have to get
02:34:13.880a deal because you can't make a deal with Trump. Cam TJR says for five dollars do you have any time
02:34:21.600do you have to time a big tax cut like will it only work right before an election and saying
02:34:27.200and not saying it two to three years before i think you can say it years before the only time
02:34:33.020a big promise doesn't help uh like the only time a big promise is bad to announce or a promise is
02:34:40.900bad to announce too long in advance is if it's a small enough promise that your opponent might
02:34:46.880find a way of basically co-opting that issue for themselves in the two to three years that there is
02:34:52.780So that's what I didn't like when Polyev was calling on Carney to cut the gas taxes, because for six months, Carney did cut them about half as much as Polyev was calling on. But that kind of sucks some of the energy out of the issue for the conservatives. You want to run on such a big tax cut, like 20% across the board, maybe even put 25% for one of the brackets, who knows?
02:35:15.580You run on such a big tax cut, the liberals are never going to be even able to come close to
02:35:20.420matching you. You run on things that the liberals would never try and take from you because their
02:35:25.160ideology just refuses to allow them to. Liberals will try and promise small tax cuts or regulatory
02:35:31.240changes here or there. They'll never make a big one. So if the conservatives run on a small tax
02:35:36.060cut, liberals will match you 50% or 70% and now your promise looks really unsubstantial because
02:35:42.280they can get most of that by sticking with the incumbent, and a lot of people just do that.
02:35:46.860But yeah, but thanks for the question there. I thought that's a good one.
02:35:51.160Wyatt, some of us wouldn't mind if they did out of sheer spite remember that. I assume you mean by
02:35:57.740America invading Canada. And Darth Barris the Thick for $20 says, call me tinfoil hat crazy,
02:36:08.620but I think Kenny and Corey are red Tories, i.e. liberals who are here to make the CBC controlled
02:36:13.540opposition. Do you think these people are malicious or just plain incompetent? Jason's
02:36:18.840incompetent and Corey's malicious. And I've even heard Jason's not even attempting to take the
02:36:25.140leadership away from Polyev anymore because he realizes even if Polyev just left suddenly,
02:36:29.980doesn't mean the party wants Jason. In fact, a lot of people would basically, even if they don't
02:36:35.520like poly of would tell poly of to stay because they hate jason that much and they wouldn't want
02:36:39.320him taking over the party again i've heard the rumor is that jason may even try and run for the
02:36:45.200federal liberals at some point because like really he used to be a very conservative guy
02:36:50.400back when he first got into parliament but sometimes government changes people in such a way
02:36:55.480where they become risk averse and they become wanting to be accepted by like the inner circle
02:37:01.500of political insiders. And I think that's what represents Jason Kenney these days.
02:37:06.340Constantly virtue signaling about how pro-Canada he is in an unquestioning way where he doesn't
02:37:12.160care what Carney does. He doesn't care if Carney won't show us the trade deal he rejected from the
02:37:16.660U.S. No, no, no. We must be Team Canada and we shouldn't be attacking each other. And it's like,
02:37:23.200well, that's great. What if Carney's lying like he's done before? No, no, no, no. Jason is here
02:37:28.600to tell you it's all okay because what matters right now is canada staying rhetorically unified
02:37:33.440it's like i don't care how rhetorically unified we are if we're getting poorer i'm just saying
02:37:39.700um this person says uh pauliev is pretty good why are we uh complaining about him i don't think i'm
02:37:50.320complaining about him i'm more so talking about it's a slight frustration that the conservative
02:37:55.200to party. Polyev is good, but I want him to be great. Let's put it that way. I want Polyev to
02:38:01.880not just be good. I want him to be great because people don't want to vote for slight change. They
02:38:07.220want to vote for big change. And I think that Polyev just being pretty good in a certain sense
02:38:14.180is Polyev being good isn't good enough. And I think that he needs to be, again, voters to not
02:38:22.140be too rude kind of don't recognize they don't care what's in your platform yes andrew coin will
02:38:28.340read your platform and he will praise it if it's it's full of all these wonky political details
02:38:34.900that only insiders like the average voter is too busy to care you need to be running on something
02:38:40.660so big that they can't help but notice and i think that that's what the that's the ingredient
02:38:45.340that polyevs conservatives are currently missing right now they're not running on something big
02:38:49.660enough that voters will definitely turn out no matter what anyways okay so um
02:38:56.740i'll tell you as someone in his former writing i've only ever seen him once in 14 years
02:39:03.760i've already i've randomly bumped into fanjoy three times these past months
02:39:08.720uh that honestly that might be a little the guy was absent i think he's referring to poly
02:39:15.420of in Carlton. To be fair, it probably
02:39:17.540depends on what part of the riding he personally
02:41:37.060the Liberals fell about 12% to 14% in Beaches East York, and then Shikotimi was a Liberal pickup
02:41:43.480from the Conservatives because of Richard Martell leaving and obviously making it so that a lot of
02:41:48.720Conservatives don't want to show up again. So that's pretty much the take. Nothing has really
02:41:53.640happened. Liberals bled off in the GTA towards the NDP a bit. North Vancouver Capilano NDP put in a
02:42:00.480really bad showing, so I'm wondering if that's what kept the Liberal vote so intact out there.
02:42:05.240They named a candidate really late. The candidate was completely out of sync with the kind of base of support out there. He was a very downtown progressive activist type rather than somebody you would want to run as like, I don't even know what kind of NDP you'd want to run in North Vancouver, like run an environmentalist, run like a successful progressive nonprofit guy.
02:42:28.820but he was like a crazy activist that i couldn't see any liberal actually voting for and again he
02:42:35.460entered the race so late it didn't matter but overall basically the the the polls tonight
02:42:41.980the election results tonight affirm what i've been saying about the polls the liberals are not ahead
02:42:47.320by 17 points liberals are ahead by you know four to seven points about in that range and they go up
02:42:55.880after the elbows up stuff because remember
02:50:27.560Gelman amnesia effect. I have to look that up.
02:50:29.640i'm looking it up the gentleman amnesia effect is the tendency of people to spot glaring errors
02:50:38.680and misinformation in news about topics they know yet immediately okay yeah i know what you mean
02:50:44.320yes i i've i've seen this before it was actually from a channel of somebody i really like steven
02:50:50.600michael davis i was just watching him today and he was somebody who mentioned that before
02:50:55.060Stephen Michael Davis has this great series I love to rewatch called Bernie Wasn't Robbed,
02:51:00.220and it's about how Bernie Sanders in 2020 lost the primary, not because the Democrats rigged it
02:51:06.200against him, although there were many people polling against him to lose, they didn't want
02:51:09.340him to win, but he lost because he sucks at politics. But you have all these progressives
02:51:13.780basically saying that he was screwed because they don't understand how politics works,
02:51:17.920and in one of those videos, those very videos, Stephen Michael Davis brought up this effect that
02:51:23.640you will be reading a newspaper and you'll read an article and say oh my goodness this author has
02:51:28.200no clue what they're talking about and i think the exact example was you're in from the entertainment
02:51:34.200industry and you're reading this column someone wrote about the holly about like about hollywood
02:51:40.600and how the entertainment industry works and some issue that's come up recently and you're reading
02:51:44.660this and saying oh my goodness this guy has no clue what he's doing i work in that area and none
02:51:49.260of this is true. He's getting basic concepts wrong. But then you'll turn the page and you'll
02:51:54.240read an article from the same paper on foreign policy, but you don't know anything about foreign
02:51:58.860policy and you take whatever they say to be fact. That's something that I think the CBC 9-11 thing
02:52:05.680should have spurred in a lot of people's minds. These people are so crazy, they don't want to say
02:52:11.120that 9-11 was a terrorist attack because they are such left-wing Hamas sympathizers and America
02:52:18.940haters and now you're going to assume that their their coverage of the trade war is not skewed
02:52:25.180towards the fact that they hate the the americans and i'm not saying that america's right about the
02:52:30.080trade war i have a nuanced position based on the facts on the ground i'm not always going to get
02:52:35.280it right i'm not perfect but i'm not just simply telling you something based on my biases of these
02:52:41.760issues i try and be able to divorce myself a little bit from it even though i'm openly a
02:52:45.920conservative. But that's the thing. Even those liberal viewer of the CBC knows the 9-11 thing
02:52:52.800was really bad. So if they said that 9-11 isn't a terrorist attack, that was an actual directive
02:52:58.320that was going out, that we're not going to refer to 9-11 as a terrorist attack, what else is the
02:53:03.680CBC absolutely pants on head crazy about? But most people won't actually even recognize that at all.
02:53:11.420But thank you there for Matt Baker. That's a fantastic point to make. A very interesting effect to bring up.
02:53:19.100Lucas Fraser, 9479 for $5. Thank you, Lucas, says, we do know the statistics of how much the Liberals won by in these by-elections. Do know the statistics.
02:53:30.420Here we go. I can just bring them up. It's not that interesting. As you can see here, the Liberals literally are pretty much at what they got last election in North Vancouver.
02:53:38.860Conservatives went down by a few points.
02:55:00.520And this was typically a liberal riding, I believe, before he was ever the MP.
02:55:05.000So it kind of just went back to the way it used to be.
02:55:08.380But these two other ridings, pretty much the results are the same or lower for the liberals as last time.
02:55:15.000And the conservatives are only a bit lower because, again, it's hard to motivate voters to show up for a DOA riding.
02:55:21.160So they actually held their own pretty well considering it.
02:55:23.960But again, my point is that basically it demonstrates that the Liberal polling, like showing that the Conservatives or the Liberals are ahead by 17 points, no, no.
02:55:37.360If the Liberals were ahead by 17 points nationally, like Liaison says, the Liberals should have won in North Vancouver, Capilano, they should have won like 69% of the vote.
02:55:50.180They should have won like 75% or 80% in Beaches, East York, if they were set by 17 points nationally.
02:55:58.280They should have won, like, what is it?
02:56:00.640They should have won, like, in Chikatimi, again, that's more local, but that's my point.
02:56:04.760If the crazy national polls were correct, the Liberals should have been massively increasing their leads, not maintaining what they had last time, if not losing a bunch of their percentage to the NDP.
02:56:16.380be um okay anyways that should be it for me today guys that was probably a good way of wrapping it
02:56:23.860up there and so again some people are saying what's wrong with canadians you should really
02:56:28.900be saying what's wrong with canadians and these deep liberal writings nothing much has really
02:56:33.800changed and again i think that's anything a silver lining that no the liberal the conservatives are
02:56:39.680not slipping down by as much as people are saying if anything effectively nothing has changed so
02:56:44.580the conservatives are probably behind nationally five to seven points and they need to figure out
02:56:49.960a way of gaining momentum. Simply waiting for the liberals to fail is not going to work or the
02:56:55.100liberals will always, as soon as they start faltering, will start bringing up the Trump
02:56:58.960issue again. You need to bring, you need to be running on something that makes the Trump issue
02:57:03.640not feel relevant. Cam TJR for $2 says, will you make YouTube membership badges? I will eventually,
02:57:11.340i should almost hire someone to do that i'm no artist i'll try and figure it out brenda weeb
02:57:16.880or 699 thank you brenda news now expects us to believe sources and no longer need names
02:57:23.160and that's wild when it comes to the cbc you're the state-funded broadcaster and you're going to
02:57:28.320write slam stories against the conservatives using anonymous sources like my my goodness that that
02:57:35.240should feel unethical to anybody reading it but again a lot of people will just like thoughtlessly
02:57:40.600taken what the CBC says and not actually consider whether or not this is ethical or true to life
02:57:46.900or it sounds correct. And Matt Baker 87 says, first, great segue. Second, I guess I'm not the
02:57:53.860one of the lone millennials lull. And on the demographics note, the next decade is going to
02:57:58.840be crazy as the movements start hitting the mortality cliff. Well, again, I would never
02:58:04.440want to expect that politics is going to change because people are going to age out. I just never
02:58:09.140think that's a healthy thing for us to do. I think that the Conservatives should be contending
02:58:13.320for votes of every demographic, but you don't do it the way, you don't do it like the Conservatives
02:58:20.740tried in Shikatimi. Don't run on OAS benefit increases and lower taxes on OAS benefits.
02:58:27.140It's lame. Run on something that applies to everybody, or you're actually going to tick
02:58:31.520off younger voters if they see you seemingly benefiting older voters at their expense.
02:58:36.580benefit everybody at nobody's expense.