00:01:42.960above 1%, give whatever is above 1% to the Conservatives because they're just not going
00:01:48.280to achieve that level of support in the next election. Anyways, yes, the Liberals are leading
00:01:53.940by 11%, but what you'll notice on the right side of the screen here is the change since their last
00:01:59.840survey in late October. The Liberals have fallen 3% since late October, and the Conservatives have
00:02:06.840gained 2%. The Bloc Quebecois have also gained 2%, which is highly significant because, as we all
00:02:12.740know, the Bloc Quebecois only run in the province of Quebec. So between the Conservatives and the
00:02:18.400Liberals, that's a five-point swing. And if you're not aware, this survey that just came out was
00:02:24.580conducted between October 30th and November 4th, meaning that it did not take into account the
00:02:31.280release of the October job numbers, and it also didn't take into account the federal budget that
00:02:36.960has been absolutely going up like a lead balloon. The massive deficit attached to it, as well as
00:02:43.380the spiking immigration numbers are not going to make the liberals more popular. In fact,
00:02:49.460it's actually giving a lot of ground over to the poly of conservatives to be pushing their
00:02:54.100economic agenda as well as their newly discovered more hawkish anti-immigration positions. The
00:03:01.200liberals are actually hurting a lot on the immigration issue these days. It's always been
00:03:05.380a more conservative leaning issue. It's basically immigration is to the conservatives what Trump is
00:03:11.820to the liberals the conservatives are wildly more trusted on immigration just as the liberals are
00:03:18.940wildly more trusted on the issue of dealing with donald trump and his administration
00:03:24.060but remember the midterm elections just happened on november 3rd and the democrats swept both the
00:03:30.540house and the senate meaning that trump as an issue to most canadians is going to decline
00:03:36.060significantly meaning that it's going to move over to issues like the cost of living even more
00:03:42.140and things like housing health care as well as immigration all issues where the conservatives
00:03:49.020actually have a big advantage except for something maybe like health care which is an issue that
00:03:53.820usually splits multiple different directions in just a second here we're going to go into some of
00:03:59.260the some more of the numbers especially on individual issues but first i just want to
00:04:04.140to remind you guys if you like the show make sure to leave a like on the video subscribe if you are
00:04:09.520not yet a subscriber and if you want to support the show more by giving a few dollars a month
00:04:13.880you can always hit the join button below and sign up to become a member of the channel that
00:04:19.020contributes a little bit each month to make the channel more sustainable for me but now let's
00:04:23.960jump over to some of the issue polling because it's really interesting just how much Carney and
00:04:29.380liberals have declined in terms of their popularity on individual issues even before some of the
00:04:35.300biggest shoes just dropped a few days ago this is the result that really got my attention and
00:04:42.820it was something that david coletto the man who leads abacus data also highlighted when he released
00:04:48.820his polling numbers check out these trend lines for government approval on these different issues
00:04:54.980Now, Canada-U.S. relations, and remember, all of these percentages are overall net approval.
00:05:02.080So when it's a negative, it's because there is more people disapproving than approving.
00:05:05.740And if it's a positive number, it's because after you add together approval and disapproval, approval is still above water.
00:05:13.320But look here at just to give you a basically a consistency or a constant.
00:05:18.260Canada-U.S. relations, Carney and the Liberal government's approval had slipped from 29 to 26.
00:05:24.980Not really significant. These polls usually have between 2% to 4% margins of error, especially on issues like this.
00:05:33.080There'll probably be a little bit of a higher error rate than not.
00:05:36.500So we could say, effectively, that's not a big change.
00:05:39.800You can see back in August 2026, the Liberals were at 18% net approval on Canada-U.S. relations.
00:05:51.040And after that, which is after Mark Carney walked away from the trade negotiating table and started fighting with Trump again, he jumped up to 30.
00:05:59.080And since then, it's been only a very sluggish decline because, overall, it is a good issue for Carney and the liberals.
00:06:05.620But that's not the one that's interesting.
00:06:07.620That's just our constant demonstrating that, yes, it is still a liberal-friendly crowd.
00:06:12.920We're not only surveying conservatives here.
00:06:14.940If anything, the poll's probably leaning a bit more liberal than reality at the moment.
00:06:21.040But check out some of these other results.
00:06:23.440The green line under the red line is jobs and the economy.
00:06:27.660The Liberals have been going up each month up to this point from August, September, and October, going from positive 8% up to positive 15%.
00:06:37.940But now they've gone down from 15% back down to 8% in a single month, a change of 7% on jobs and the economy.
00:06:47.840The blue line under that is the federal deficit and government spending.
00:06:50.720And now remember, this poll was conducted before the federal budget even came out that's demonstrating that we are now spending more money paying for the interest on the national debt than we actually are in terms of our health care transfers to the provinces.
00:07:06.800The Liberals back in October were at a 2% net positive approval rating on the federal deficit and government spending.
00:07:16.540They've declined at 7% as well on this one, down to negative 5%, so they are now below water on that issue.
00:07:24.000Back in October, the Liberals were at negative 3 on the housing issue, and now they are negative 10, also dropping by 7 points.
00:07:32.720And on cost of living, they've gone from negative 15, already not a good issue for them, to negative 19%.
00:07:40.720That's absolutely disastrous for the liberals, considering this was before the latest October job report came out.
00:07:48.540It may have technically came out the same day, but information coming out the last day of a survey isn't really going to affect the numbers too much.
00:07:57.380Watch for these, the next Abacus Data report that comes out, to drop even more.
00:08:02.720Now, on Canada-US relations, the Liberals are probably remaining pretty good, but the problem is, it's not that can Conservatives convince Canadians that they should trust them more on Donald Trump and his administration, it's more how many Canadians make that a big issue.
00:08:19.180It's an issue the Conservatives will never beat the Liberals on in this lifetime, and nor do they have to because Trump's only president for another two years now.
00:08:28.000What the Conservatives want people to do is move their top issue away from President Trump and his administration and towards things like immigration.
00:08:39.040Check out this chart of Canadians' top issues.
00:08:41.960And the way Abacus Data does it is that you pick three issues as your top issues, and then you will see in this chart the percentage of Canadians who made that issue a top three issue for them.
00:08:52.500So right now we are seeing rise of cost of living is chosen by 63% of Canadians as a top issue for them, probably often occupying somebody's number one or number two issue based on how front of mind it is for some Canadians.
00:09:59.500even though he doesn't really have that much impact
00:10:02.380when it comes to Canadian politics other than their histrionic reactions to him.
00:10:06.840But back when the liberals in the advocacy data surveys were only leading by like 2% or 3%, or even back in December 25, they were actually trailing the conservatives by 1% or 2%.
00:10:18.860The Trump and his administration issue was only cited by people as, you know, maybe 24%, 23% of people are making it one of their top three issues.
00:10:29.060So 38% is a significant, how do you say that word?
00:10:38.140It's extremely elevated right now compared to what it was a year ago.
00:10:42.640But you then go down to housing affordability and accessibility, 32%, healthcare, 31%.
00:10:49.220And very, very surprising to see immigration at 24% of Canadians saying it's a top three issue.
00:10:57.680A year ago, or even six, eight months ago, that was maybe rated by 13% or 14% of Canadians as one of their top three issues.0.96
00:11:06.900It's gone from 14% to 24%, which is reflecting why the Polyef Conservatives are hammering on it so much.0.85
00:11:14.520It's a bit of a sort of a both-and sort of reason why it's elevated.0.90
00:11:20.060It's elevated because it's just naturally become a bigger issue for Canadians,
00:11:24.280and it's also elevated because the poly of conservatives have really picked up that issue
00:11:29.100and pushed back on the liberals hard on their mass immigration plans and the new federal budget
00:11:34.700makes it even worse for the liberals remember this survey came out before the federal budget
00:11:40.960was tabled where they're going to be increasing permanent residencies handing out 200,000 permanent
00:11:47.360residencies to tfws and all this other garbage that's going on that is going to hurt the liberals
00:11:52.780a lot. Now, the conservatives in somewhere like Brantford, Brant South, they are going to do
00:11:58.940really well if they really push on both cost of living as well as immigration. It's a riding with
00:12:04.980a lot of trades workers, a lot of people who have gone, you know, done college, but not sort of like,
00:12:10.740you know, liberal arts university. So pushing on these populist, pushing on the sort of populist
00:12:17.280position on immigration will pay dividends in that riding i do want to show right now
00:12:23.840if an election were to happen today based on 338 projections which i don't put too much weight into
00:12:30.160but we should at least look at it as a potential alarm bell here in brantford south the liberals
00:12:36.960currently based on the national polling and regional polling for ontario have a 67 chance
00:12:43.040of taking the riding and the conservatives only have a 33 chance of taking it despite the fact
00:12:48.960that larry brock in 25 had won this riding by above 10 percent that this is a bit of a do or
00:12:57.680die situation for pier poliev do i personally think polio should step down if the conservatives
00:13:02.960lose this by-election i would just say it doesn't really matter if the caucus's perception is that
00:13:09.280he can't stick around if you've lost brantford brant south that kind of ends things caucus can
00:13:14.720vote in order to basically remove him as leader if enough people end up signing a letter requiring
00:13:21.360a vote in caucus to be held i believe it's like 12 or 18 it's some percentage like that of people
00:13:27.520who have to sign the letter before you actually trigger an internal caucus uh vote if the
00:13:33.200conservatives hold on to this writing i think it gets rid of any more leadership challenges for
00:13:37.520If he loses, it's really up to caucus at that point of how hard they're wanting to push in order to maybe change leaders. That is why I do want to plug, if you live in Brantford, Brant South, please get a lawn sign for Kevin Davis. I am putting a link to the lawn sign sign up for that riding pinned at the top of the comments as well as in the description below.
00:14:00.820And I'm going to say this right now. The Conservatives did mess up the nomination process in this area. They came in and they appointed the mayor or the former mayor of Brantford when they should have held a nomination. And one of the guys who was kind of messed over by that decision is running as an independent here.
00:14:20.560I'm not going to condemn him for doing that.
00:14:22.220He was wronged, and he's wanting to run as an independent.
00:14:25.820At the same time, I don't think it's going to be very helpful for the conservative movement in general to throw at Pierre Polyev right now.
00:14:33.400So, at the same time, I'm saying get a lawn sign for Kevin Davis, the conservative candidate in that riding.
00:14:40.040Also, shame on the conservatives for bungling this process so badly that you now have an independent challenger.
00:14:46.920Maybe he would have won, maybe he wouldn't have won a nomination process.