00:00:00.000Great news, everyone. It turns out Prime Minister Mark Carney's actions do in fact have consequences, demonstrated by a new poll out from the Angus Reid Institute showing the Liberal support continuing to fall over time and Mark Carney taking a massive hit to his personal popularity after the Gordie Howe Bridge fiasco.
00:00:21.640in just a second here I want to take you guys through the latest numbers compare them to
00:00:27.020previous Angus Reid numbers as well as the new stupid Nanos poll that's out that everyone is
00:00:33.020using to say that the conservatives are done but we will be getting to that in just a second after
00:00:38.260I do the normal reminder if you like the channel make sure to leave a like on this video subscribe
00:00:43.340if you are not yet a subscriber to the channel and consider hitting the join button below if
00:00:48.120you want to become a monthly contributing member of the channel. So these are the latest numbers
00:00:54.280out of the recent Angus Reid survey that shows the Liberals are only at 40% now, the Conservatives
00:04:23.480And now we're kind of having the reverse happen.
00:04:26.120The Gordie Howe bridge is like the anti Davos speech for Mark Carney. He looked really weak and pathetic and he ended up lying about it too, which he was quickly caught doing. And now the liberals actually may end up hurting their support even more because you guys don't know those previous concessions the liberals have made to the Trump administration on things like the digital services tax, the streaming tax and other counter tariffs that we put on them that we ended up dropping.0.93
00:04:56.360Well, the liberals may now get rid of the entire streaming tax
00:05:01.280that mostly only affects American corporations.
00:05:16.980But the fact that Trump is making him basically drop these things
00:05:20.360demonstrates the elbows-up brand means absolutely nothing.
00:05:25.640Carney loves to talk tough, he loves to make anti-American quips here and there, but he is utterly terrified of Donald Trump and refuses to step into a room and negotiate with him, so he throws out concessions here and there, preventing Trump from demanding an actual in-person meeting.
00:05:42.060I guess he thinks that if he gives little concessions, he kind of bides his time, but eventually you've given so many mini concessions, it's added up to a fairly large concession.
00:05:52.080The Gordie Howe Bridge thing is not that much money over time compared to, like, the overall federal budget.
00:06:00.060But at the same time, symbolically, it was absolutely devastating for the Carney liberals.
00:06:06.700And now I want to show you what Mark Carney's approval rating used to be and what it currently is now.
00:06:13.260He has seen a massive drop-off in the Angus Reid polling.
00:06:17.640And to show you how fair Angus Reid is, they've always shown that he's quite popular.
00:06:21.160This isn't some super conservative-leaning pollster.
00:06:24.620Angus Reid himself, I believe, is a liberal.
00:06:27.040They've always shown, even when the polls were tightening, that Carney was still quite popular.
00:06:31.720Back in January, Carney was at 60% approval to only 34% disapproval, with 7% being undecided.
00:06:41.580And even when the liberals were only leading 5% nationally in their last poll,
00:06:46.480He had a 55% approval rating, 39% disapproval rating.
00:06:51.680That is a pretty decent margin for a prime minister at a time when politics is quite
00:06:57.820You know, notice how approval ratings for a prime minister, either if someone's super
00:07:03.060disapproved of, apparently, or they're super approved of, it actually doesn't really affect
00:07:08.500national polls that much, because now, even though Mark Carney has had his disapproval
00:07:14.300rating jumped three percent and his and his approval rating fall four the actual national
00:07:20.420margins have only tightened up by about one point and the conservatives didn't actually gain it's
00:07:25.120the NDP that is currently gaining off of the liberals but it shows you that a lot of the
00:07:31.620approval of Mark Carney basically didn't matter before even if you voted for him or not he seems
00:07:37.140like a nice guy and if a pollster asks you do approve of him a lot of people just say yes
00:07:41.860because they are not hyper-partisan, you know, they didn't vote for the guy, and they're not
00:07:45.740going to vote for the guy next time, but, you know, he's a fine gentleman. But the Gordie-Howe
00:07:50.660bridge thing sort of changed that. He is now sitting at only a 9% net approval rating, when
00:07:57.720back in January, if you add that all together, what is that, a 26% net approval rating? Even the
00:08:05.540last poll that is a pretty massive a massive number what is he leading by 16 points over his
00:08:12.040disapproval rating it went from 16 to 9 the man ended up losing 7 points net on his approval
00:08:20.460rating and it's all because of the bridge and now the new falling back on the streaming tax
00:08:26.520completely is going to be another blow to him and it's mostly going to benefit the NDP now the
00:08:32.260conservatives can benefit over on the on the liberals fall but what they need to do is become
00:08:38.600more conservative be a more starkly different option from the liberals that has always been
00:08:44.580the problem for the conservatives in the past four elections they've never been so starkly different
00:08:49.800they really turn the election into a referendum but you guys don't need to hear that whole spiel
00:08:54.660from me again i think they should run on 20 across the board tax cut i'd run on much harsher uh you
00:09:01.860know criminal justice policy maybe even the death penalty for first-degree murders where there's
00:09:07.260absolutely no doubt that they did it stuff like that that really gets the public's attention
00:09:11.420but the funny thing is that even though the NDP is kind of a bit of a dead vehicle under Jagmeet
00:09:16.800Singh it's not that Avi Lewis is breathing new life into it it's that Mark Carney is breathing
00:09:21.500old life back into the NDP by just not being what he advertised himself as the thing is that some
00:09:28.940people talk about mark carney as if he's so conservative compared to justin trudeau he
00:09:33.480really isn't and it's not like mark justin trudeau was some massive you know far left progressive
00:09:39.300he is a progressive mark carney himself is a progressive but they're never far left enough
00:09:44.880to satisfy the ndp so they all voted for mark carney when he represented elbows up against
00:09:50.380donald trump and as that's not proving to be true all these people are saying well he was never
00:09:55.260really hyper progressive enough for me in the first place so why don't i go back to avi lewis's
00:10:01.420ndp no doubt this poll is going to be a big encouragement to mike layton who is still
00:10:06.980thinking of running in the beaches east york by-election a by-election that the ndp could
00:10:12.260actually beat the liberals in despite it being considered a safe liberal seat but now i want to
00:10:18.540jump back over to the listings on 338 because i want to show you guys just how close right now
00:10:24.600a lot of these regions are. Right now we actually have the Conservatives winning in British Columbia
00:10:33.240in large part because the NDP are coming back but also because the Greens are also taking another
00:10:40.160couple of points from the Liberals. Currently have the Conservatives at 41% of the vote exactly what
00:10:45.520they got in 2025. Liberals have fallen by four points since their last poll are now sitting at
00:10:50.84038, and the NDP have risen by 15, the Conservatives having taken two points from the Liberals
00:10:55.940as well. Now, these regionals will have more margin of error, so you can take them with a
00:11:02.180slight grain of salt, but at the very least, I would say this is indicating a certain momentum
00:11:07.880that is going on right now. The elbows up thing is probably ticking off a lot of NDP voters,
00:11:14.220as well as the pipeline fiasco probably ended up annoying a lot of more lefty, green, and NDP voters.
00:11:21.920And I think the Conservatives are probably gaining just because the business community,
00:11:26.500with a lot of the new announcements of investments heading down to the United States,
00:11:30.640they're also maybe not totally sick of Mark Carney,
00:11:34.340but there's enough of them that are probably transporting themselves back towards the Conservatives
00:11:39.160where they may have been in the Liberal category back around February.
00:11:43.240uh i believe ontario is still in the hands of the liberals yeah but it is actually far closer than
00:11:50.640it was in the last election the liberals ended up winning the province of ontario in 2025 with like
00:11:57.460a seven percent margin over the liberal or over the conservatives it was like 49 to 42 or something
00:12:04.420like that mostly because the ndp just performed so poorly only getting about six percent in the
00:12:11.500province of ontario now as you can see they're up to 14 percent in quebec liberals are still leading
00:12:19.020bloc is hanging in there that's actually the one thing that i think we're also going to see over
00:12:23.660time i think that in the next several months we will see the bloc quebecois jump from that national
00:12:30.700polling of six percent in most polls up to seven percent which means in quebec that they will be
00:12:37.340around the mid 30s that's when it's start that's when Quebec is going to stop being a big vote
00:12:43.260bank for the liberals and it's going to be far more of a knife fight between the liberals the
00:12:48.500bloc and the conservatives in some limited areas uh the now the only other thing I want to bring
00:12:55.160up is the streaming issue and then actually no the other thing I wanted to bring up is the nanos poll
00:13:00.260so let's start with the nanos poll and then we'll finish off with a little bit with that streaming
00:13:04.720news. Everyone, every time, a pollster comes out and it shows the liberals are leading by some
00:13:12.060massive number. We have this narrative coming out that the conservatives are cooked. Conservatives
00:13:17.100can't win because, look, a random survey said that they're losing by 15 points. And someone
00:13:22.800could say, well, Wyatt, you're highlighting the Angus Reid survey. What's wrong with people
00:13:27.240highlighting Nanos? Nanos is a good pollster, guys. I'm going to preface that. During elections.
00:13:33.400During elections, Nanos is very good. Between elections, they go to a cheaper form of surveying, a far worse methodology. And so their numbers start to be very left-leaning. They do not have strong and robust samples to actually be able to get a good snapshot of the country. They're very urban. They're very default left.
00:13:56.240So when you see a poll coming out showing the liberals leading by 15 points, no.
00:14:02.980I always say this, is it a 15-point country out there right now?
00:14:07.120You walk around the streets and think, wow, oh my goodness, all these neighbors really seem like they like Mark Carney.
00:14:13.520Now maybe some parts of the country are like that.
00:14:15.920It's not a 15% lead for the liberals out there.
00:14:18.620You can just kind of feel it when things are getting that bad for a party.
00:14:22.480now i actually didn't believe it when the conservatives were leading the trudeau
00:14:27.600liberals by 25 points i think there was just so many depressed liberals out there they weren't
00:14:31.920even taking surveys anymore throwing off the numbers heavily in a lot of these polls but
00:14:37.480trudeau was probably if he stuck around would have lost the next election to the conservatives by
00:14:42.840like 12 points or something like that which would be like a 230 seat majority for the federal
00:14:48.660conservatives but like the thing is that you could feel that back then no matter what part of the
00:14:55.100country you were in you could walk out into the streets and there would have probably been as you
00:14:59.320walked by a bunch of people complaining about Justin Trudeau the vibe was just not with the
00:15:05.060liberals at this point but the vibe isn't with them right now either are they on top sure but
00:15:10.240it's not this dramatic lead that other people are claiming that it is and I found this one
00:15:15.520thread on x that i thought was a really good takedown of the discourse around the nanos poll
00:15:21.920it was from this one guy named eyes on unacceptable he says amusingly the people
00:15:28.960making the most noise about the recent nick nanos poll putting carney a gazillion points ahead of
00:15:35.080pure poly of or party of toronto conservatives the liberals stayed largely silent about the
00:15:40.740Nano's panel poll. Those same Party of Toronto cons are very quiet indeed about the Angus Reeds
00:15:47.620rather more methodologically sound poll putting Carney four points margin of error ahead. If you
00:15:54.300are running Jason Kenney's whisper campaign, Reeds numbers are unhelpful. Midsummer polls tend to be
00:16:00.480worth less than a bucket of warm spit simply because voters are not even close to functioning
00:16:04.460focused on politics. If you put a poll in the field you'll get a result but it's unlikely to
00:16:09.080be close to correct of course the party of toronto people don't need correct they need a talking
00:16:14.520point that and that talking point is pierre can't win canadians hate him nanos delivered that talking
00:16:20.400point for the libs this is an entirely unearned bit of good news the cory wars in the cpc take a
00:16:27.000bit of the focus off carney's currently flailing on on the trade file with the house of commons
00:16:32.240recess carney is able to skate on most issues the thing is like most goalies carney is not that
00:16:38.160great a skater. A single hard question from Relic Media and he scampers. As I've said, Carney is
00:16:44.100not a terrifically good politician. He's not quick on his feet. Party of Toronto stalwarts
00:16:49.300mistake the good suits for substance, credentials for accomplishments, and Relic Media plays along
00:16:56.660until it doesn't. They have been brief signs of disenchantment and it is early days. It might be
00:17:03.920wise, and I dare I say strategic, to not run a CPC candidate in the upcoming Quebec by-elections,
00:17:10.760let the Bloc beat the Liberals, present the Derry Association no less, splitting the blue vote is a
00:17:18.300bit pointless. And it would not be the worst thing in the world for the NDP's newest Leighton to take
00:17:23.420Toronto's beaches riding. The CPC needs a strong NDP to deprive the Liberals of seats and votes
00:17:29.200next election. In the Angus Reid poll, the NDP tops 11%, not quite enough. Although he says 11%,
00:17:37.040maybe I'll drop it out here because he meant 13 because they were at 13, he said 11. But I think
00:17:43.320that was a generally good overview of the current situation in conservative world. There's a bunch
00:17:50.320of these red Tory Toronto types from out east who are trying to start this sort of whisper campaign
00:17:58.040that pure poly of it cannot become uh prime minister that he inevitably will be thrown
00:18:03.960up by the party hoping that people basically give into a demoralization campaign and then
00:18:09.600they can slot in someone like jason kenny or doug ford or or mark malrooney as the new federal
00:18:16.000conservative what as new federal conservative leader what would that help what appeal do those
00:18:23.120guys have outside of our current coalition? No, liberals don't like them. So what's the point?
00:18:29.920But conservatives don't like them either. In fact, I think conservatives are losing elections
00:18:34.640because we're not moving to the right enough. Not that we moved right a lot and we just failed
00:18:40.480to move right even more. The problem in the last four elections is that the conservatives
00:18:44.560either moved left with Aaron O'Toole or with Pollyoff. They initially moved right and then
00:18:49.500they kind of stalled out but they didn't really move that much more right to the point where they
00:18:53.640would actually drive out more conservative votes that's the thing just because you're the conservative
00:18:59.040party doesn't mean that every conservative vote out there showed up for you oftentimes when you
00:19:04.340run on a boring platform people decide they're too tired to vote you know it's 7 p.m you're coming
00:19:10.280home from your job uh you're tired do i really want to stop and get in line and vote i got stuff
00:19:16.640to do. If you're running on an exciting platform, people will find that energy to go and vote.
00:19:21.880If it seems like a bit of a who cares mail-in election, they're not going to bother with it.
00:19:27.740So right now, things are actually quite decent for the Conservatives. They're quite well poised
00:19:33.940to be able to beat the Liberals, to be able to claw back a lot more support and eventually
00:19:39.020overtake them. But they do need a stronger pitch to Canadians that isn't just Mark Carney is
00:19:45.240screwing up. That is a prerequisite for them winning. Mark Carney does have to screw up.
00:19:49.740But then you have to show up with a substantially different agenda, not simply saying I'm going to
00:19:56.000implement 80% of the same agenda with 20% changes and I'll do it better than the last guy. You want
00:20:02.040your agenda to be completely different. But here's the last thing I wanted to talk about, and it's
00:20:07.400this story about scrapping the Netflix tax. So Trending Politics here says Ottawa is scrapping
00:20:13.720all financial contribution requirements for U.S. streaming giants like Netflix, Amazon, and Apple,
00:20:19.560The Wire Report reveals. That's nearly $2 billion a year in funding for Canadian media gone.
00:20:25.440Now, obviously, I don't care if the Canadian media gets funded because it's just a bunch of
00:20:30.060government corporate slop anyways, but rhetorically, from a Liberal Party perspective,
00:20:36.900this is a massive disaster for the Liberals. That would be the one thing I actually disagreed with
00:20:41.740the guy from the thread I read earlier. The problem is Canadians are kind of paying attention0.99
00:20:47.060this summer. And it's because usually the Prime Minister doesn't get caught lying after giving
00:20:52.220the US President everything he wants to open up a bridge that we built. And so I think there
00:20:57.100actually is an outsized amount of people paying attention that usually would not during the
00:21:02.780summer. So this thread continues and says, Canada's broadcasting regulator had raised the threshold to
00:21:10.12015% of Canadian revenues for major streamers, which would have generated an estimated $2 billion
00:21:15.900annually for Canadian news and entertainment. A letter filed by the Attorney General's office
00:21:21.160to the Federal Court of Appeal on July 17th confirmed the government now intends to eliminate
00:21:25.700that requirement entirely. So you see what's going on there. The streaming tax used to be 5%. It still
00:21:34.380was 5% as of like a week ago. And then the liberals were going to triple it. The CRTC
00:21:41.700had recommended that we triple the tax from 5 to 15, which mostly only affects American companies
00:21:47.960because name me the big Canadian streaming companies, there's none. So Netflix and Amazon
00:21:53.300and Disney, we're all going to basically have to give a bunch of money to the CBC and other legacy
00:21:58.860media outlets. And now they're not only not tripling it, but they are going to scrap the
00:22:04.520remaining 5% of the tax and just do away with it, I guess, to please Donald Trump. Now, I don't like
00:22:12.360that tax. It's a stupid tax. But symbolically, this is absolutely pathetic. It's Mark Carney1.00
00:22:20.420getting beat by Donald Trump again without even having, without Donald Trump even having to get