The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 29, 2026


Carney LOST a Safe Liberal Seat After Party Rigs Nomination For Insider!


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Length

15 minutes

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167.11

Word count

2,599

Sentence count

73

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Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 It's only been a couple of days since Prime Minister Mark Carney called three summer
00:00:05.420 by-elections, and the Liberals are already messing everything up. In fact, they could
00:00:11.340 end up losing the safest Liberal seat out of the three because of some shenanigans they
00:00:16.600 pulled. But to explain what's going on, I first need to introduce you to a man named
00:00:22.140 Tanvir Shanawas. He is the Liberal MP candidate for the riding of Beaches East York, and used
00:00:29.500 to be the staff member for the outgoing Liberal MP, Nate Erskine-Smith, for 10 years. He did not
00:00:37.180 win this nomination legitimately, and now there is a revolt of Liberal members going on in a riding
00:00:43.520 that the Liberals assumed that they could take for granted. But as I am going to read some of
00:00:48.740 the reporting coming out of this, this is opening it up for the NDP to snag the seat from the
00:00:54.400 Liberals. Now, as a Conservative, obviously, if I could choose a party to win the seat, it would be
00:00:59.840 great to have the Conservatives win, but a consolation prize is seeing the Kearney Liberals
00:01:05.020 lose a seat to their left flank, empowering the NDP to expand into more areas around the GTA.
00:01:12.440 In just a second here, we will be getting into what went down in this nomination, but before we
00:01:17.940 do that, I just quickly want to remind you guys, if you like the channel, make sure to leave a like
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00:01:31.200 per month it makes the channel more sustainable for me and allows me to be less reliant on the
00:01:36.260 youtube algorithm but now let's get into this article from trending politics the headline here
00:01:42.360 is the liberal party picked its beaches eat your candidate in nine days and members aren't happy
00:01:48.700 down here it says on july 9th the liberal party announced a nomination meeting would take place
00:01:54.940 on july 18th in nine days the deadline for signing up new liberal members to vote was back ended to
00:02:01.720 july 7th the same date erskine smith officially resigned his seat this that meant no candidate
00:02:08.100 could sign up a single new supporter after the race was formally opened the liberal constitution
00:02:13.760 requires at least two weeks between calling and holding a nomination meeting the party invoked
00:02:19.040 an electoral urgency exemption to waive it the by-election itself wasn't called until july 26th
00:02:24.960 eight days after the nomination prospective candidates had nine days to organize campaigns
00:02:30.480 meet members and make their case the writing wasn't even listed on the liberal party's national
00:02:35.200 nominations webpage making it difficult for residents to find basic information about the
00:02:40.560 process shana was through his role as erskine smith's office manager had access to a database
00:02:46.000 of many registered liberal members in the writing every other canada was started was starting from
00:02:51.280 scratch two dropped out almost immediately john tory jr suspended his campaign july 13th 11 days
00:02:57.840 in saying the compressed timeline had left him with no viable path mark hall jackwin who founded
00:03:04.160 a charity supported supporting women fleeing domestic violence also did not make the ballot
00:03:08.800 Forkans and Pierce on the ballot on July 18th, Gledhill Junior Public School, Shanawhas, Seaborne, Summer Noodle, Farmer.
00:03:19.340 Again, this is just a lot of names. I don't need to do this.
00:03:21.560 But, you know, 869 votes cast and out of 5,000 eligible Liberal members and Shanawhas won by 13 votes.
00:03:29.980 That is incredibly tight. 0.85
00:03:33.000 And if it was a real nomination, I think we could guess Shanawas probably wouldn't beat somebody like John Tory Jr. 0.90
00:03:40.860 or somebody who was running their own women's non-profit group. 0.88
00:03:45.360 He's an office manager for sitting MP who has been doing it since he was 18 years old and is still doing it at 28, where he then became the Liberal Party nominee.
00:03:56.480 Clearly, the rules were skewed in such a way that would advantage this guy who would not normally win.
00:04:02.220 The general rule of parties is that if they're going to rig a nomination, they're going to do it just enough that it makes sure their guy wins.
00:04:10.520 They're not just going to kick a bunch of people out and pick that guy because that's too obvious.
00:04:15.280 Usually they'll rig the rules just enough so that the guy they want to win will win.
00:04:21.920 Now, this is all coming across as a very ironic favor to Nate Erskine-Smith,
00:04:27.400 because you will remember after he left office or he was still technically sitting as an mp but he
00:04:33.660 declared he was going to leave he ran for a provincial ontario liberal nomination in scarborough
00:04:39.300 southwest that was rigged against him and now as a favor to nate erskine smith the guy he endorsed
00:04:46.940 had the nomination federally rigged for him um not a great look really sketchy you couldn't sign
00:04:55.300 anyone new up which meant that the people who were members in the riding were probably going
00:05:00.260 to be predisposed to voting for whoever the sitting liberal mp was and they still only did that by 13
00:05:07.680 votes which really tells you shana was is a fairly mediocre candidate i say this as a 27 year old but
00:05:14.880 there are not that many people in their 20s who have enough political experience and sort of
00:05:20.240 common sense to actually sit as an elected official. And I really doubt Schnob was after
00:05:26.100 having basically just sat in Nate Erskine-Smith's campaign office as well as constituency office
00:05:31.960 for 10 years. Never had a job outside of that, basically been doing easy, you could never get
00:05:37.760 fired from political work. That is his entire background. And now it is opening the door
00:05:43.460 for the NDP to win the riding. Now some people will cite different projection websites showing
00:05:50.220 that it's a super liberal riding and i'll even do that right now but then i will proceed to
00:05:54.860 disprove this theory this is on polywave.com just showing the election results from 2025
00:06:02.700 erskine smith in 25 won the riding with 67.6 of the vote the conservatives coming in second with
00:06:09.740 23.7 the ndp only got 6.9 and then he had the greens getting 1.3 now how could this riding
00:06:18.060 possibly fall out of the liberal hands well the liberals have done the first step which is pick
00:06:24.780 a dud candidate that nobody really likes and then the second thing that's going to happen is mike
00:06:31.260 leighton is going to run for the ndp who used to be a city councillor for three terms in an area
00:06:38.300 just a couple of blocks away from this federal riding mike leighton as you will as you have
00:06:44.940 probably guessed is the son of former ndp leader jack layton he ended up winning his first toronto
00:06:53.020 city council election with 45 percent of the vote a nearly 25 point margin over his opponent
00:07:01.980 over his closest second opponent when he ran for re-election in 2014 he got 83 percent of the vote
00:07:09.420 And in 2018, he still got 69% of the vote, despite this being after his father had died,
00:07:18.440 and obviously his brand recognition would have been going down after that.
00:07:23.580 Still won by absolute dictatorship numbers.
00:07:27.720 He is openly thinking about running for this nomination.
00:07:31.860 And if there is currently a liberal member revolt against the Liberal Party's nominee,
00:07:37.240 you don't think Mike Leighton might run for this riding yeah the NDP only got 6.9 percent of the
00:07:44.420 vote but that was for a very tired uh that was a very tired uh Jagmeet Singh version of the NDP
00:07:50.600 Mike Leighton is running for an NDP that is currently on the upswing not nearly at its
00:07:56.600 heights that it was back in 2011 but far from the lows they were in 2025 and you get to run
00:08:03.180 with the 2011 brand going for you mike layton again is the son of jack layton he is also the
00:08:11.340 stepson of the current toronto mayor olivia chow he would be stupid not to jump into the race at
00:08:18.100 this time and we even have liberal outlets currently attacking the liberal party for what
00:08:23.900 they just did in this beaches east york by-election nomination check this out from tvo today says
00:08:32.060 analysis. Beaches East York proves it. Nomination meetings stink. Down here it says there's a
00:08:40.020 hypocrisy over how political parties open their doors or don't to people who want to get involved
00:08:45.500 in politics and it really needs further unmasking. The road to running for parliament provincially or
00:08:51.080 federally almost always starts with trying to win a party nomination. Yes people can run as
00:08:56.100 independents but independents almost never win. You would think that the parties would want to
00:09:00.760 encourage citizens to come forward, sign up supporters, create interest, encourage people
00:09:05.440 to offer themselves for office. Foreign Prime Minister John Turner used to say democracy doesn't
00:09:10.640 happen by accident, you've got to participate. But if they want some party, but if the way some
00:09:17.020 parties organize their nomination meetings is any indication, they'd much prefer to remain a closed
00:09:22.220 shop. Yet again, we're hearing complaints that one of the country's major parties has neglected to
00:09:27.840 let appropriate democratic practices take their course. Some are grumbling that a party has put
00:09:33.380 its thumb on the scale for a preferred candidate. I wrote about this several months ago when I and
00:09:38.440 many others pointed out some curious anomalies related to the Ontario Liberals nomination
00:09:42.580 meeting in Scarborough Southwest. Now the party's federal cousin has made strategic decisions in the
00:09:48.920 recent nomination meeting in Beaches East York designed to find a candidate to replace a departing
00:09:53.740 mp nate erskine smith who was a primary character in the mess in scarborough southwest if a party
00:09:59.980 wanted to democrat demonstrate its open-mindedness and democratic nature surely it would welcome all
00:10:06.860 qualified candidates into its race and set a date for the nomination meetings a date fair
00:10:11.660 far enough in advance such that those candidates could knock on doors and sign up new members
00:10:16.620 but the federal liberals didn't do that on july 9th they announced a meeting would take place on
00:10:20.700 on July 18th. Nine days would give prospective candidates barely a chance to sign up new
00:10:25.520 supporters. Then the party decided that none of the candidates who had already been greenlit to
00:10:29.740 run could sign up new voters at all. The brass backdated the deadline to sign up new members
00:10:35.560 to July 7th, the date Erskine Smith announced his resignation. That effectively put a thumb on the
00:10:41.360 scale for one of the candidates at the expense of all the others. This candidate was Tanvir
00:10:46.260 Shanawas, a 28-year-old who managed Erskine Smith's constituency office. Shanawas, by virtue of having
00:10:52.280 that job, had access to the riding's database of email addresses of the more than 5,000 Beaches
00:10:57.680 East York party members. To put it simply, Erskine Smith had been the MP for the riding for over a
00:11:03.200 decade. It's safe to assume that the registered liberals in the riding skewed pro-Nate, and those
00:11:08.500 supporters would be interested in supporting his candidate. It goes on from there, but yes,
00:11:15.140 This is the perception that even the liberal media has of what has gone on here, that the Carney liberals are effectively using Parliament right now to not only just hack the House with loyalists of Mark Carney, but also give out favors to loyal liberal apparatchiks.
00:11:34.920 This is what they ended up doing in North Vancouver, Capilano.
00:11:38.740 Their candidate, Brandon Cayley, was just a deputy chief of staff for Mark Carney and a longtime campaigner that they're jamming into a riding that he has absolutely nothing to do.
00:11:49.380 And now as a consolation prize for Nate Erskine-Smith having the Scarborough Southwest Provincial nomination rigged against him,
00:11:56.280 he is now able to pick his successor and they've rigged the entire nomination to let that mediocre successor win the actual race.
00:12:04.920 Except now, that candidate may not even win the general election if Mike Leighton jumps into the race.
00:12:11.180 Because who do you want to vote for?
00:12:13.760 Some loser staff member of the outgoing MP for the Liberals?
00:12:18.360 Or do you want to vote for Mike Leighton, the son of the guy whose party actually won Beaches East York back in 2011?
00:12:26.760 This is a progressive, progressive riding.
00:12:29.580 If the NDP puts in a good candidate, they could win.
00:12:32.900 In fact, when Main Street Research did polling, seeing if the current NDP leader Avi Lewis ran there, if he'd have a good chance, they actually found that he could win by a point or two.
00:12:44.900 Because despite the NDP not doing well last election, it was just because the NDP was just not the zeitgeist of 2025, people didn't like Jagmeet Singh anymore, and the entire race was defined by liberals versus conservatives versus Donald Trump.
00:12:59.920 That was the narrative, and Jagmeet Singh wasn't a part of it. But right now, that's not the narrative for this particular by-election. So if the NDP throw everything they have at the wall, including a famous son of a famous former NDP leader, they could have the riding.
00:13:17.940 Meaning that Mark Carney's liberals have lost, potentially, one of the safest ridings they have in the entire country based on issues that they've had in the nomination process.
00:13:31.700 You can't make it up.
00:13:32.940 They could even end up doing far worse right now in North Vancouver, Capilano, because of jamming in Brandon Cayley, as well as a bunch of the other actions that they've taken on pipelines and now the Gordie Howe Bridge.
00:13:46.300 And the third and final by-election is kind of a toss-up. Chicoutimi-Lif-Yord can be won by either the Bloc, the Conservatives, or the Liberals. But based on Carney basically mocking the idea of people voting for separation, saying that even if the Albertans voted 50% plus one, he wouldn't recognize it, that has ticked off a lot of Quebec nationalists, whether they were separatists or not.
00:14:10.540 Carney thought he was only insulting Alberta independence people in fact he was actually
00:14:15.260 insulting Quebec independence people as well the pipeline issue has not actually gone over well
00:14:20.620 with lefties in Quebec and the right now because of the Gordie Howe bridge thing and the failures
00:14:26.700 on trade which has particularly herded manufacturing in Quebec there this may actually become a
00:14:33.320 situation where the liberals only win one of the three by-election ridings when in theory they were
00:14:38.980 set up to potentially sweep all of them anyways so with all that being said wow i'm definitely
00:14:47.220 going to be covering this riding far more than i thought i would before if mike layton jumps into
00:14:52.560 the race i give this like an 80 chance of the ndp picking up this this riding he can run super
00:14:59.460 elbows up he gets to run as the son of jack layton and the liberal members will maybe even line up to
00:15:05.040 help him win just to punish the liberal party for rigging their party's nomination maybe john
00:15:11.000 tory jr would even endorse mike layton just to make sure to stick it to the liberals for
00:15:16.700 effectively making sure that he wasn't able to properly compete for that nomination race
00:15:21.600 anyways so with all that being said thank you guys for watching make sure to like share subscribe
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00:15:32.580 later.