00:20:35.500And why was the question made in such a scuffed way that, let's say, even if Carney was massively
00:20:41.200unpopular right now he might still be able to win that poll if he had a negative approval rating
00:20:47.540there's a chance he could still win that poll simply because when you break up the who's the
00:20:53.500best to beat him among multiple options people are going to choose one of multiple options they're
00:20:58.160not just going to consolidate behind one choice because everyone acts as a hive mind and they
00:21:02.460know it will look good in the poll if everyone chooses polyev that's just not how real life
00:21:06.480works and they're manipulating that for headlines now i want to move on to some other coverage of
00:21:12.640this because i thought there's many good takes and many bad takes in the aftermath of this
00:21:17.580let's jump to another bad take and that is cp24 also covering new polls out again just seemingly
00:21:25.940here to attack polioff they brought on scott reed to interpret this poll scott reed who is a partisan
00:21:32.320liberal. Why is he the one that we are going to, to interpret whether or not a poll is good or bad
00:21:38.780for Mark Carney and Pierre Polyev? He's obviously going to say it's bad for Polyev and good for
00:21:44.380Carney. The leader of the official opposition, only 13% of Canadians say that they think he's
00:21:51.840capable of taking on Carney. And fully a third say, no, there's no conservatives. I mean,
00:21:58.080I'd make two points about this one it tells you about the current state of
00:22:01.860the conservative party but it tells you about Scott Reed's ability to read the
00:22:07.140last name is just ironic apparently Scott it was actually 15 percent but he
00:22:13.140just says 13 percent because he can't be screwed to actually read the thing
00:22:16.500properly and this really just tells you just how bad things are for the state of
00:22:20.840the conservative party if you have me come on a new show to talk about how
00:22:25.560bad the Liberals are. After a bad poll comes out, I'm not a fair spokesperson. If you want
00:22:36.500to talk about the state of the Conservative Party, bring on a Conservative. And not a fake
00:22:40.540Conservative like Fred DeLore. Bring on an actual Conservative who will point out the
00:22:45.060flaws with the poll and how, when you actually look at all the other polls, the Conservative
00:22:48.940support is fairly robust. The reason why they're having CTV News on, or Scott Reid on, and
00:22:54.960the reason that they only use the nanos poll is because if they used any other poll or they had
00:22:59.400anybody else on the the the viewers wouldn't be getting the perception that the conservatives are
00:23:04.160dead so you might as well surrender over to the carny liberals and start voting for them to
00:23:08.500and you know bandwagon for the for the true champion of the people everyone capable of taking
00:23:13.880on carny and fully fully a third say no there's no conservatives i mean i'd make two points about
00:23:20.980this one it tells you about the current state of the conservative party federally in the sense that
00:23:25.760it has built this incredibly robust and intense base of support right they are polling at a higher
00:23:32.060level than they have in the past without winning and what I mean by that is 35 to 40 percent of
00:23:39.580people are saying I'm going to vote conservative yeah very intensely hard to get knocked off of
00:23:44.560that but you have to be the alternative yeah and if Carney's going to get 43 percent of the popular
00:23:50.260vote or 48 percent of the popular vote 38 or 35 ain't going to be good enough another piece of
00:23:56.820data on this oh wow 35 is not going to be good enough to beat 38 wow 27 20 28 isn't good enough
00:24:05.660to beat 47 wow if we just fart out bad numbers apparently the conservatives can't win if you
00:24:12.280actually put the recent angus reed and abacus polls into a model to give a seat projection
00:24:18.420it's actually not that bad for the conservatives one of them only puts the liberals a few seats
00:24:22.980above a majority based on how the support is currently spread out as another critique of
00:24:28.440that nanos poll you realize when you only pull 250 people in each rolling sample how many people
00:24:36.020are we polling in pei or new brunswick or even alberta 250 people now considering the population
00:24:44.580distribution in the country that means like a hundred of the responses are
00:24:49.140going to be from Ontario maybe 65 of them are going to be from Quebec and
00:24:54.120then the rest are going to be from the rest of the country you probably aren't
00:24:58.440even pulling a single person from a territory and the Maritimes is probably
00:25:02.580a little more hit-and-miss if you're even going to have more than five
00:25:05.040respondents these are not credible polls you cannot slap four crap samples
00:25:11.340together and think that you can now wait your way into a realistic result no you need people from
00:25:18.140every walk of life before you pull you here's a great example here's a great thought experiment
00:25:23.180can you do a poll of only women or only men well no nick nanos and scott reed probably would tell
00:25:28.700you well no you can't just only pull women or only pull men because that's not who shows up
00:25:34.380in votes in elections well this is almost as bad because we probably have effectively no rural
00:25:40.940people in the nanos poll we probably have a over representation of urbanites and public sector
00:25:48.780union workers and so let's say there's no farmers in the poll or there's only like
00:25:53.180two you can't wait your way into a good result if you are literally fully missing certain
00:25:59.900demographics of people and the voting differences between a rural canadian not in a small town
00:26:06.220working as a public school teacher but a rural Canadian who owns a farm and a guy who lives in
00:26:11.840downtown Montreal those are two completely different human beings and those people have
00:26:18.300stronger voting differences than just between men and women and if you're missing the or the farmer
00:26:24.120or you're missing many suburban conservatives there is no way of simply playing with the
00:26:29.880weightings to try and make it a more accurate poll and even when you go into the nanos poll
00:26:35.260Out of 1,000 respondents, 600 of them, or I think it was like 580, are above the age of 60.
00:26:42.920So more than a majority of the people polled are above the age of 60, despite millennials being the biggest demographic group in terms of age.
00:26:53.340But the legacy media wants to talk about how screwed Polyev is right now because this is what they're trying to do to get over the fact that it's been a bad news cycle for Carney.
00:27:26.920And in fact, the recent abacus poll, I talked about this on the show on Sunday, interestingly shows that despite Trump and his administration being a very elevated issue in the minds of Canadians right now, the Liberals are not benefiting from it as much as they used to.
00:27:44.66037% of people put it as a top three issue.
00:27:47.540The last time it was as high as that, the Liberals were leading by 12 to 13 points in the abacus data poll.
00:27:53.780now they're only leading by six despite it basically being at the exact same amount of
00:27:58.460people who make that one of their top issues because the carny liberals have been fumbling
00:28:02.740it so much that many people don't really see them as the reliable party to handle it doesn't mean
00:28:07.340they're not voting liberal it's still probably a disproportionately good issue for the liberals
00:28:11.520but if it's becoming less good of an issue for the liberals that will be showing some alarm that
00:28:16.920will be sending up alarm bells inside of the liberal party but the last thing i want to talk
00:28:21.960about in this video. So we've covered all that. Actually, although I want to get to one more take
00:28:26.440from a conservative on this, and then I want to talk about something actually having to do with
00:28:30.500Alberta here. Ryan Gerritsen here says, also in reaction to the CTV News headline,
00:28:37.600our media machine, just like with Trudeau, will keep people believing no one could ever replace
00:28:42.520him or the liberals. There's a reason they don't actually want to deal with Trump. It gives them
00:28:47.040someone to blame for canadians living lives continuing to decline from the article quote
00:28:53.440consumer confidence is flat there is no deal with the americans people are worried about paying for
00:28:58.800the bills and they're very very grumpy nanos said quote but the thing is it looks like right now
00:29:05.520they're not blaming the liberal government or mark carney for this it's almost like nick nanos is
00:29:11.120telling on himself nick you say all that and then you look at your polling results and you don't
00:29:17.440think when you see other polls showing the liberals declining that maybe you and your
00:29:22.000really cheap crappy polling methodology messed something up maybe it's that you're not very good
00:29:28.240at this now nanos this is going to sound contradictory during elections they're actually
00:29:33.280quite a good firm because during elections they get their crap together and they have good quality
00:29:38.080samples where they will pull several hundred people every single day, they
00:29:42.700actually were not that far off of the last elections results. Now they
00:29:47.580under sampled both the Liberals and Conservatives a bit, they over sampled
00:29:52.000the NDP, but they actually use a better methodology during elections and they go
00:29:56.920to this cheaper form between elections and I think they do that deliberately
00:30:00.600because their cheaper methodology tends to overestimate Liberals and it's great
00:30:05.840for pro-liberal propaganda but now we are going to move on to an alberta story now we've just
00:30:13.120talked about how bad the legacy media is how they spin for the liberals and they are constantly
00:30:18.800attacking the conservatives despite the fact they're in opposition and i don't think they've
00:30:23.200done anything exactly wrong for a while yeah bad things sometimes happen to them like somebody
00:30:29.120you know resigning from office to take a senate appointment from mark carney but it's not like
00:30:33.440Kupolev and the conservatives have said or done anything particularly wrong and they got all this
00:30:38.580negative coverage. I think that we should also hold YouTubers to the same standard. This is a
00:30:45.940guy I have to talk about because it's just getting to the point of absurdity. All of the negative
00:30:52.320attacks on Danielle Smith coming from certain people in the independence movement. Be pro
00:30:58.320independence. It doesn't bother me at all. I'm not sensitive about it. But don't just make stuff up
00:31:04.580to attack Danielle Smith because she's not pro-independence. I posted this last night and I
00:31:10.800said a lot of criticism of conservative content creators and commentators is bad faith attacks
00:31:16.660against people who are just not part of your political tribe. But as a YouTuber myself, I think
00:31:22.320we should all normalize pointing and laughing at pro-independence slop like this stop now i am not
00:31:29.040saying that pro-independence stuff is bad there are great pro-independence content creators out
00:31:34.000there even if i'm not pro-independence i'd recommend you if you are or even if you're not
00:31:39.120go watch cory morgan's channel he's really good he's really thoughtful and common sense and even
00:31:44.080if i don't agree with his conclusions on the independence issue he is a very good advocate
00:31:49.200for his side. Derek Smith unacceptable fringe is not. Can we all agree that this is genuinely just
00:31:56.880him lying to his audience? His headline here is Daniel Smith lost her job with an AI Daniel
00:32:03.420Smith holding up a bag that says bribes. We have Mark Carney government just collapsed from Derek
00:32:10.560Smith. We have this one that says Daniel Smith is calling it Canada is finished. This one that says
00:32:17.060Daniel Smith is replacing Pierre Polyev, where he actually asserts that Danielle Smith is trying
00:32:22.720to take Polyev's job from him. No. No. And this has real-life consequences. I had somebody tell
00:32:30.840me that when Northern Perspective was doing a live stream, there were people in the chat saying,
00:32:36.240well, you know that Danielle Smith's gunning for Pierre Polyev's job and trying to undermine him?
00:32:40.380No, she's not. And the only source they had for that was Unacceptable Fringe's video,
00:32:45.700which is crap he just makes stuff up and i have an example for you here today he made a video
00:32:53.200just today claiming that basically danielle smith was supporting or not doing anything about the
00:33:01.620edmonton police's new hate uh campaign basically saying telling people to report hatred and they're
00:33:08.840apparently going to prosecute or go after anyone saying things like certain people should be
00:33:14.060deported, which is not hateful. I think criminals, welfare cheats, people here illegally, they should
00:33:19.920be deported. That is not hateful. But because Danielle Smith is not pro-independence, even
00:33:25.960though she let the referendum happen, he made a video called Daniel Smith Just Ended Her Career,
00:33:31.700where only five minutes of the 16 minute and 28 second run was taking, using this video of Danielle
00:33:39.940Smith talking about how she thinks that Alberta shouldn't pay any money enforcing bad federal
00:33:45.680laws and then trying to tie this to what the Edmonton police just did basically five minutes
00:33:50.780ago and blaming her for not doing anything about it, even though it literally just happened. Check
00:33:56.440this out. Is that the federal government does have the power of criminal law. We have the power of
00:34:02.340non-enforcement. And what that means is we choose our policing priorities and we choose our Crown
00:34:10.580prosecution priorities. And I can tell you, if the intention behind it is to do what we're seeing in
00:34:16.000the UK, where regular citizens are getting hauled off to prison because they post something online
00:34:23.460that hurts someone's feelings, we are just not enforcing that. There's no way. That's not the
00:34:28.440culture in Alberta. We reaffirmed in our Alberta Bill of Rights that free speech is protected,
00:34:36.040and we think that's a government overreach. Okay, so just like her pipelines that she said
00:34:43.720any government investment is a loss, she confirms here that the Alberta Bill of Rights protects
00:34:49.900free speech, that they are not going to focus police efforts on hurt feelings reports. How is
00:34:57.220that the police were able to obtain contracts for ai body cam scanners and flock cameras
00:35:04.340if we're not going to enforce these kind of laws these draconian
00:35:09.620overreach laws i'm sorry but that doesn't actually have anything to do with flock
00:35:15.380cameras and body cameras those are like two disconnected thoughts you can dislike flock
00:35:20.660cameras and AI scanning body cameras, I might also dislike them. I've heard about a lot of bad
00:35:28.000things about flock cameras. That's not what this video is about. But the Alberta Bill of Rights
00:35:32.500doesn't automatically stop that, nor does it automatically stop the Edmonton police from
00:35:37.100doing something stupid. They have their own budget. They spent it on promoting report your
00:35:41.860neighbor for hatred because they have a bad police chief and a bad mayor. How does this have anything
00:35:47.100to do with danielle smith being bad i i literally i have i am without i cannot understand and this
00:35:54.540has been consistent with derek constantly attacking danielle smith for things that don't make any
00:35:59.900sense or are contradicted by her record but i'll let it keep going why is it that the edmonton
00:36:06.540police force how come nobody from the alberta government has reached out to the edmonton
00:36:12.140police force or put a stop to their uh bus wraps there because it happened like five minutes ago
00:36:22.380you muppet it happened like a few days ago daniel smith probably maybe did call them i don't know
00:36:29.980that even the edmonton police are already backpedaling on all this from all the either
00:36:34.540the public pushback or maybe the alberta government told them to take it all down stop doing this
00:36:39.340report your neighbor type garbage how is this a again a bad danielle smith story deserving of
00:36:47.260the headline that danielle smith just ended her own career her online posts their hurt feelings
00:36:54.620reports asking people to snitch on anybody with hurt feelings why is it that danielle smith has
00:37:00.940not spoken up and said uh this is overreach because politics and government don't work like
00:37:07.500a ww wrestling match derrick it's not that the edmonton police do something bad and then daniel
00:37:13.860smith has a press conference calling andrew knack on the carpet and the edmonton police chief
00:37:18.080it's just not how it works you don't react to things in five seconds because governments want
00:37:24.160to have good relations even if they dislike what the edmonton government did and even if they're
00:37:28.760going to push back and demand that they stop doing it if that's happening it's going to happen behind
00:37:33.300the scenes. And by the way, the Alberta government, if Andrew Nack's police force start trying to
00:37:39.840actually recommend people for prosecution, Alberta prosecutor could just say, I'm not doing it.
00:37:45.460We're not spending any police resource on it. You can try and book someone. We're just going to let
00:37:49.380them go and say that, no, we're not pursuing this charge. There's a lot of stuff going on here,
00:37:53.860but we are for some reason hungry for a bad Danielle Smith story that we are using a footage
00:38:01.200of her from months ago rightfully saying we're not going to enforce you know laws on hurt feelings
00:38:08.020and now connecting that to her her inaction in like two days of a story breaking that in fact
00:38:15.840broke on the weekend you know when things are less likely to actually happen do you think if
00:38:20.320you ask danielle smith about this today she'd be like oh absolutely i support what the edmonton
00:38:24.400police are doing or do you think she'd probably make a mild comment that kind of indicates
00:38:29.480Andrew Knack, Edmonton police, get your act together and take this crap down.