The Liberals are getting frustrated with the amount of Conservative lawn signs being trashed in their riding, and the lack of support they're getting for their candidate, Mark Carney. I talk about why this is happening, and why it's a big deal.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I think the Liberal Party knows it's not doing nearly as well on the ground in this federal election as the media and some of the pollsters are trying to portray, because the behavior of the Liberals around conservative lawn signs demonstrates that they're getting a little bit frustrated.
00:00:18.920But before I move into the lawn sign issue today, I want to highlight this is the lineup for a Mark Carney event in Georgetown, an area with a large population around it, and this is the crowd that showed up to watch Mark Carney speak.
00:00:34.580That is like what a local candidate should be getting. Maybe there's like 90 people here?
00:00:39.500However, as Marty up north notes, my impromptu meetups in Calgary attract bigger crowds than this. This is Carney's rally in Georgetown this afternoon, and make no mistake, Georgetown is a key riding for the Liberals.
00:00:54.360It's a key area in general. Southwest Ontario is a battleground between the Liberal Party and the Conservatives, and it seems like Carney's staff even knew he was not going to be able to attract more than flies, so they intentionally booked a much smaller venue than what Pierre Polyev would have booked.
00:01:12.260Things are not going well. The polls can say what they want, and I think that the polls are going to start reversing for the Conservatives as the next couple of weeks drag on.
00:01:20.860Naturally, naturally, in every election that I've looked at, the Liberals actually tend to have a big pop at the start, and then they tend to fade, because so many Canadians have voted Liberal at least one point in their lives.
00:01:31.860When they don't know who they're going to vote for, they just start telling pollsters, default, I guess I'm voting Liberal.
00:01:36.800And we've seen in the polls that the people saying they're voting Liberal are also far less likely to say they're definitely actually going to show up and vote Liberal, so they're still free agents for the most part.
00:01:46.360But now, I want to get to the lawn sign side of this, because the amount of Conservative lawn sign destruction is, like, off the charts compared to any other election I've looked at.
00:01:56.440But before I get into it, guys, I just want to remind you, if you like my federal election coverage, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, it really helps us on the algorithm, and I like to go scroll through and see what you guys are saying, respond to some people, all that good sort of thing.
00:02:11.000I'm on my path to get to 100,000 subscribers, so if you like this video, make sure you do subscribe.
00:02:16.620But now, let's get down to the lawn sign side of things.
00:02:20.940It is actually just nuts how many lawn signs are just being trashed at the side of the road, multiple of them.
00:02:27.860People's lawn signs being stolen and hidden behind garbage cans, going to private people's lawns and taking them, all these air and gun signs that have been absolutely ripped to shreds.
00:02:37.060These are multiple instances in just a single riding of these lawn signs being destroyed.
00:02:43.480And let me tell you, you're only finding out about it because air and gun's team tend to be pretty savvy with social media, so when they see their lawn signs destroyed, they know they should document it and post about it.
00:02:54.400This is guaranteed going on in every single riding.
00:02:57.160Here, down here, you can see Yara Saxe's people literally surrounding a Roman Baberlawn sign in York South with her signs.
00:03:09.140And the same thing was also going on with Mark Carney posting his signs in a median along a road to try and block conservative signs from being seen.
00:03:19.120I have to pull this off screen for a second so I can find it.
00:03:33.360You could be an independent and spend, you know, $10,000 on signs, and you could look like you have as many signs as anybody else.
00:03:41.140You don't usually want to put too many signs on public property.
00:03:44.220Because, like here in the riding of Nepean, where Barbara Ball, the conservative candidate, is running against Mark Carney, the liberals have seemingly had to resort to just putting Mark Carney signs anywhere on public property, especially to block Barbara Ball signs.
00:04:01.840Barbara Ball is not posting a lot of signs here because she's a weak candidate and she doesn't know what she's doing.
00:04:07.320She only has one sign here because, presumably, there are hundreds to thousands of people in her riding who want her signs on their private lawns, and those signs are being prioritized there.
00:04:19.580Carney probably doesn't have that many people reaching out right now, so for the meantime, they're just sticking them in the middle of intersections like this.
00:04:31.840I have seen this constantly, people saying that they are not actually seeing a lot of lawn signs for the liberals around.
00:04:39.240They're barely seeing anything for the NDP, and these are even like Vancouver ridings, Vancouver proper, Toronto ridings.
00:04:46.860The only signs that are up are conservative ones.
00:04:49.220That doesn't mean that the liberals might not be more popular than the conservatives in that riding, but it probably proves that even if there are issues going on inside the conservative campaign,
00:04:58.060they're far better mobilized than the liberals, and who could have guessed?
00:05:02.780The liberals didn't even have half their candidates appointed by the time that Carney pulled the trigger on the election,
00:05:08.520and they are still trying to get candidates in all the ridings.
00:05:11.420So in more than half of the ridings, the liberals might not even actually be doing any campaigning for like the first week and a half
00:05:17.940because they don't even know who's running for them, or they barely got off the ground, and they're just trying to find their volunteers.
00:05:23.760This, to me, was also a very telling poll result that came out of Main Street.
00:05:29.620This is something I didn't mention in my last video about polling.
00:06:03.220So once people realize that, they'll be like, oh yeah, why was I excited to vote liberal?
00:06:07.120I'm just going to stay home or vote conservative.
00:06:09.320People tend to return back to the mean over time.
00:06:12.880People turn back to where they were naturally going to vote for in the long run, and these short little patriotism shocks where Carney's standing up to Trump and a bunch of people start saying, well, I'm going to vote liberal then to back up Carney against Trump.
00:06:27.100You know, that only lasts so long, and then you realize, oh, this is an election about actual domestic issues in Canada, and Trump truly doesn't care how we vote because it's not his country.
00:06:37.160People start voting for things that the conservatives are running on, and the liberals aren't, because the liberals aren't running on anything.
00:06:44.160They announced some national housing program, which is basically Soviet-style housing policy, and other than that, I can't name anything that Carney's actually planning to do that isn't just a diet version of what the conservatives are going to do.
00:06:58.680So here's just, this is what I'm trying to say.
00:07:02.200I think that the crowd sizes, while not exactly indicative of where the parties are nationally speaking, I think it's demonstrating the trend that Carney has a very difficult time actually holding people's attention.
00:07:16.300And I think at the debate, that is where you're going to see the big separation between the conservatives and the liberals, because Carney can only pretend to be some big, new, fresh force in politics for so long, and then people see him talk, and they're like, this guy talks like Trudeau, but with less charisma.
00:07:36.240This Paul Chang scandal is a perfect example of it.
00:07:39.320He defends himself in the same way Trudeau would have defended himself.
00:07:43.160Just keep repeating the same dumb platitudes over and over again until the media just give you a pass, but I don't think you can really do that in an election.
00:07:52.000Usually Trudeau was good enough to keep his scandals to, like, the middle of his government's terms, and by the time the election rolled around, they were, like, scandal-free for the three months running up to it.
00:08:03.340But Carney's having scandals drop, like, every other day around, like, CCP interference, or around his dealings with Brookfield, or around basically all of his crazy policy ideas coming out of the closet from old videos that are resurfacing from, like, four or five years ago.
00:08:32.920So if you live in Canada, go request a sign for your lawn, because the science of it is by putting up a sign.
00:08:39.520I know if you live in apartments, it's difficult, so don't bother.
00:08:42.280But the science of it is if you put up a sign, you're usually making sure one or two other people get out and vote, because it's reinforcement that, you know, Bill across the streets voting conservative.