00:02:19.000But it's mostly just people saying, yeah, I'd be worried if we had to go to an election right now.
00:02:24.620But then the article just admits like, yeah, but we're not going to go to an election right now because, you know, it's only been a year really since the last one.
00:02:31.740And Carney would never call one right now because he already has a majority.
00:02:35.100And, you know, things change fast in politics.
00:02:37.440But really, the entire article is just about the headline.
00:02:40.740So many legacy media stories are just about getting that headline.
00:02:44.980And of course, this one cites that stupid nanos poll that mentions that or that tries to claim that basically all of Canada thinks that Carney cannot be beaten.
00:02:55.880When only 33 percent of respondents in a very left wing leaning poll said that Carney can't be beaten by any conservative leader.
00:03:04.100And that was only because they broke up all the options of who can be Carney among so many different people that obviously the vote didn't consolidate behind any one person.
00:03:14.160And yet Harper and Pauly have still got 16% and 15% respectively, which is kind of impressive when you consider the fact that I believe they listed like a dozen options or something like that.
00:03:27.500But whatever, maybe I just don't understand the news.
00:03:30.760But the whole article is to distract from what is currently going on with trade.
00:03:36.760You know, the big issue that if Carney screws up on, he could actually end up losing his base.
00:03:42.200This is the thing he got elected for in 2025, the idea that he's the man to take on Donald Trump. He's going to go make a good deal for Canadians. We have had tepid coverage from outlets like CTV News, Global, and CBC on the massive concessions he's been making to the Americans.
00:04:00.600I highlight when the CBC is sometimes honest on a panel where they're actually talking about like, yeah, this kind of doesn't look bad. He's going to Italy after a bunch of concessions on DST streaming tax, as well as the Gordie Howe Bridge. And that's oftentimes like a liberal talking. But by the next day, we're talking about Polyev again, or we're talking about Pete Hoogstra being a mean, nasty man as the US ambassador. It's like, what? What is this?
00:04:25.600Like, I want to jump over to the CTV news coverage right now, because the way that they're queuing this up, they seem giddy to talk about, oh, people don't like pure poly about there.
00:04:36.600Well, our sources in the Conservative Party have, you know, slight apprehensions about an election that's not going to happen for like another two and a half years.
00:04:46.880Let's bring in CTV's Jeremy Sherrill from our Ottawa Bureau with more.
00:12:08.200it's like that was not great but again crazy open season for stories on the liberals the
00:12:14.260gordie howe bridge thing just happened condo bailout alto high-speed train the current trade
00:12:19.740situation the fact he's in italy sean chen it's not amazing right now that economic data comes out
00:12:27.200there's some good economic data too right mixed articles where you poured on both of it fair
00:12:31.140enough but why are we talking about the conservatives with this amount of intensity
00:12:35.940And as MPs knocked the doors this summer, Pierre Polyev is not liked among, you know, the people that they are talking to.
00:12:43.580Well, in the West, Polyev has some stronger support.
00:12:47.400Certainly some of the MPs that CTV News spoke with as part of this reporting in Western provinces are still, you know, vehemently in support of Mr. Polyev,
00:12:58.540still squarely behind him and believe he can beat Mr. Carney, despite the fact that most of the
00:13:05.180MPs we spoke with believe with the CTV News poll conducted by Nanos Research, which concluded that
00:13:11.260most Canadians believe there is no conservative that can beat Mr. Carney.
00:13:17.460See, that's a poor framing. They're basically saying, well, the conservative MPs agree with
00:13:22.640the poll because they believe if an election was held at this exact moment, Carney would win.
00:13:27.060But that's not how really that question from CTV News was conducted saying, can anyone beat Carney?
00:13:32.240He wasn't saying if an election was held right now, you think a conservative could win.
00:13:35.940I'd say no. It's just the moment in time. It's just how politics works.
00:13:40.080And again, no election is going to happen right now.
00:13:42.120If he came out and he called a snap, his popularity would collapse because everyone would be like, what?
00:13:48.220Why? I thought you were the man with the plan. You have a majority. What are you doing?
00:13:51.160So that would never happen. But they're acting as if like their poll saying that Mark Carney's wildly popular.
00:13:57.060you know two three years from now even two election cycles nobody can touch Carney that's
00:14:02.180not what the MPs actually agreed to they are simply hearing MPs say yeah we ran right now
00:14:07.900we probably wouldn't win in this second and they're saying see they agree with the poll it's
00:14:11.140like no and they also conveniently keep leaving out that MPs from other regions of the country
00:14:17.200also still think they say that they absolutely believe in Polyev and nothing that's currently
00:14:22.160going on wrong right now has anything particularly to do with him. By the way, universal rule in
00:14:29.000polling. Conservatives, when it comes to general elections, overperform their approval ratings
00:14:34.260and liberals underperform their approval ratings. Why do conservatives have usually lower approval
00:14:40.160ratings than they actually get in general elections? Well, look at the CTV news coverage
00:14:44.720right now that we are currently watching. There are so many negative stories about conservatives
00:14:50.320for absolutely no reason, whereas there's always glazing happening of liberals,
00:14:55.480even when things are not very good, or certain bad stories that they would report if it was a
00:15:00.700conservative gets left out if it's a liberal. If Danielle Smith was currently just on vacation
00:15:07.900in Greece right now, do you think they wouldn't be hammering her? Because there's wildfires going on,
00:15:13.420even though if there's not really any going on in Alberta, they would be slaughtering her at the
00:15:17.340moment. Carney going off to Italy during wildfires as well as tense tariff negotiations?
00:15:24.380Whatever. Fill your boots, man. In fact, there was even people saying, no, no, no,
00:15:27.980he's not really on vacation. He's just on reduced work hours. It's like no real world leader takes
00:15:35.000a vacation, but he's on what the equivalent of a world leader's vacation is. He's going to be
00:15:40.160working like a couple hours a day, answering a phone call here or there, saying yes or no to a
00:15:45.620couple decisions that some bureaucrats bring him. That's it. He is on vacation. He has physically
00:15:51.020distanced himself, geographically distanced himself on a macro level from the trade situation
00:15:57.080in the US because he doesn't want to be blamed for the failure. He wants to be able to, at least
00:16:03.200in my opinion, throw someone under the bus if a trade deal doesn't get made or we end up giving
00:16:08.600a lot of stuff up for simply just deferring future tariffs, but we're going to keep the current ones
00:16:14.320that are hurting our economy that being said even in the western provinces uh there are concerns
00:16:20.280one mp cdv news spoke with expressed uh concern about mr polyev's leadership believe wow you
00:16:27.400found one guy i like that way they they mentioned the one mp from the west who had concerns but they
00:16:32.740weren't mentioning the mps from the east and the in atlanta canada who were vocalizing that they're
00:16:38.560totally fine with his leadership and the fact that the conservatives are down don't doesn't
00:16:42.820really have anything particularly to do with him. I know there's a lot of people out there who
00:16:46.280really don't like Polyev. It tends to be people who are default voting liberals. It's not like
00:16:51.980really, again, people just don't like Polyev right now because he's not Mark Carney.
00:16:58.160People don't like Avi Lewis either. Usually an NDP leader has a very high approval rating
00:17:02.820because nobody sees them as much as a threat. You know, it's just some friendly neighborhood
00:17:07.300socialist or whatever. So Jagmeet Singh for the longest time had a very high approval rating
00:17:11.900because he's not going to win. Tom Mulcair always had a high approval rating. Actually,
00:17:15.460I think he actually didn't have a good one, but it was because people thought he could become
00:17:18.600prime minister. So they started having more realistic views of what they actually think
00:17:23.980about him as a person. But Carney's approval rating is effectively why Polyevs and Avi Lewis
00:17:30.520and probably Blanchett's are all bad, because they see them as hurting the elbows up. They oppose
00:17:37.360the elbows up because they are not the liberals. Even though, as the conservatives keep pointing
00:17:41.700out their main opposition to the liberals on trade is the fact that they are doing the opposite of
00:17:47.520what they ran on concessions for absolutely nothing like i think the conservatives should
00:17:52.820kind of have their own slogan like elbows up but kind of a cheeky uh refuting of it saying tag me
00:18:00.300in you guys are screwing this up tag out tag out tag me in i can do this better let's form a
00:18:07.580bipartisan negotiating team that all goes down there. We're all in the room together. We have
00:18:13.820a liberal MP attached to our liberal minister. We have a conservative critic. We have a block
00:18:18.920critic and then include an NDP person on there too. That would be a great pitch by the conservatives.
00:18:25.240But again, the Polyev and the conservatives are not unpopular right now because of anything they've
00:18:30.220done wrong, although the media will keep pretending that they have. They're only unpopular because
00:18:34.600people are still mostly giving Carney a chance. But if you look at more reliable pollsters like
00:18:40.820Angus Reid and Abacus Data, although they would show the liberals would win a majority if an
00:18:45.780election happened today, they're not running up these plus 20 scores on the conservatives.
00:18:51.940It's like six, four, let's say even if it went up a little bit because the trade situation
00:18:57.320intensified and even if he's been screwing up on it previously, we'll give him our best
00:19:04.040confidence right now, even if they're at seven or eight, that's not a runaway lead. That's
00:19:09.420something that can be diminished over time. I don't think that Carney's one or two bad stories
00:19:13.920away from becoming unpopular. I think it's more so that he's a few bad news cycles away in terms
00:19:19.520of bad trade scripts from his liberal base, not being disillusioned, but just realizing he's not
00:19:25.800maybe the, like, he's not really like some maverick politician. He's not the man with the plan
00:19:33.280anymore maybe a lot of people still vote for him and you'll still have a generally pretty high
00:19:37.800approval but it could slip to the point where he's kind of a typical liberal prime minister in terms
00:19:42.960of his approval like he's just kind of paul martin i guess you would say not really exactly
00:19:47.500the elbows up liberal champion like he was back in 2025 is that he should consider resignation
00:19:54.560and that there are mps across caucus that are concerned about losing their seats in the next
00:19:59.620election, including in Western provinces. So a snapshot, Rene, of kind of where caucus stands,
00:20:05.620at least some members of caucus right now, at a time when they're spending time in their
00:20:10.560constituencies over the summer, gauging how people feel and really hearing from their constituents
00:20:16.660in terms of where they stand. Now, in the meantime, there will be several
00:20:21.940by-elections at the end of this month. How does this all factor in?
00:20:26.000yeah look i think there could be a serious test upcoming in terms of where mr polyev
00:20:33.320will stand there's a by-election coming up in brantford ontario this is a riding uh that is
00:20:38.860held by larry brock the by-election has not been called mr brock has signaled his intent to step
00:20:44.400away from politics uh it's a riding that's been held since 2008 and one ontario mpcdb news spoke
00:20:50.940with believes this could be a real test, and that if the Conservatives are not able to hold that
00:20:55.920rioting, it could spell trouble for Polyev's leadership. This MP compared this to the Toronto
00:21:04.880St. Paul's by-election in 2024 in the lead-up to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation.
00:21:13.600Do we see what's happening here? Like, we're talking about a by-election that has not been
00:21:18.100called in the writing that the conservatives are probably going to be able to retain they won it by
00:21:22.880like 11 12 points last time and that was a diminished lead because the liberals way over
00:21:28.040performed mostly because the ndp had collapsed and we're already like basically talking about
00:21:34.120well polio is going to probably have to resign if he loses this branford brant six nations by
00:21:39.700election that's not going to be called until at least september or at least until like november
00:21:45.900or December. This is what the news coverage is. We're talking about Polyev hypothetically resigning
00:21:52.960after hypothetically losing a safe conservative seat in a by-election that hypothetically might
00:21:59.780happen in October or November or December. What? Again, why aren't we talking about Carney?
00:22:07.480I'm not saying that it all has to be on him, but there's been a lack of intensity
00:22:12.500when things are very intense in reality in terms of what is currently going on.
00:22:19.260Again, why was there not a lot of outrage that he was going to sacrifice,
00:22:23.660and I didn't even like it in the first place,
00:22:25.280but we're going to sacrifice the booze ban,
00:22:27.660we're going to soften supply management,
00:22:29.260which I don't even exactly like either.
00:22:31.180I definitely don't like supply management.
00:22:32.640And we're also going to get rid of the cap on American auto imports into Canada
00:22:37.420for deferring the new 50% tariffs on 5% of more Canadian goods,
00:22:44.9805% more Canadian exports, that's nothing.
00:22:48.080And we have not really seen wide coverage about just how ridiculous that is.
00:26:00.000They actually met every day to coordinate their coverage.
00:26:02.540They they would not run any ad I had that showed footage depicting my opponent in a unfavorable light.
00:26:10.360They simply refused to run the ads. So we literally were censored out of the coverage.
00:26:15.940And now seems very startlingly familiar. Now, I'm not going to just say conservatives get screwed by the media.
00:26:25.500That's why they lose. You know, that's not all of it.
00:26:28.220I'm also going to always reiterate my point that the poly of conservatives, just as the O'Toole conservatives, but goodness, O'Toole would have never done this, just as the sheer conservatives should have done this, and just as even the Harper conservatives in 2015 should have done this, you need to run on bolder policies that get more attention.
00:26:46.920Even if the mainstream news isn't going to cover them, you need something that can spread like wildfire on social media, where right now, I think one of the problems with the current conservative approach is it's a wait-and-see approach on whether or not the liberals are going to screw things up.
00:27:01.940And they probably are. They're the liberals. But the thing is that when they do screw things up, the way you properly capitalize on it to turn that screw up into momentum for a conservative victory is running on bold, audacious policies that get attention, that galvanize voters, and that set the narrative for the next election on your terms.
00:27:23.220Do not let the liberals pick the issue of the election, because whoever picks the issue typically wins.
00:27:29.260And so the conservatives should do something like, I always suggest, run on a 20% across-the-board tax cut, all income tax brackets, all corporate taxes, as well as take a point off the GST.
00:27:41.380I've had tons of other people in the audience suggest other great ideas around criminal justice reforms and whatnot that would be like really big reforms, massive crackdowns on crime.
00:27:52.660Run on something big, because right now, when the Conservatives just talk about removing the
00:27:56.860gas tax for the end of the year, or slightly lowering income taxes more than the Liberals,
00:28:02.420or, you know, getting rid of the industrial carbon tax, I can maybe even agree with those
00:28:05.880things in principle. But I can see also how a member of the general public doesn't even notice
00:28:11.420that it was even mentioned, because it wasn't big enough. That's also something the Conservatives
00:28:14.920need to be cognizant of, is that you can kind of allow yourself to fade into the wallpaper.
00:28:20.380Now, this isn't saying that because they're not doing that, that's why the Liberals are polling high. It's a bit of everything. That's something that the Conservatives should be doing because I don't like the wait and see approach for the Liberals to screw up. Because guess what? If the Liberals do screw up, but you're not offering a bold change alternative, people will let the Liberals limp along, get back their sea legs, and then they'll go back to the Liberals.
00:28:42.060You have to basically when your opponent's down, you keep them down by proposing something big and different that people like as the alternative rather than, you know, when your opponent falls down, they look towards you and they're like, oh, they're not really still not really doing anything.
00:28:56.760They'll they'll it'll take a long enough for them to be they'll be indecisive, wondering if they should change parties or not.
00:29:01.900And then Carney will find some way of getting himself momentum again.