00:02:43But then we have him basically repeating the same mistakes that put him down in 2025, but it's even worse now. But no, no, not only is he not going down, he's in fact going up. That is an unmotivated change in the polls.
00:02:58And the same thing goes for the conservatives when they have them pretty decently tight to the liberals back in 2025 at that September, back in September, they weren't that far away from each other.
00:03:13But, you know, during the Davos thing, when Carney was getting that shot in his arm because he's fighting Donald Trump and it made him look good.
00:03:20And, hey, he's rolling about a bunch of fake trade deals out that people didn't realize were fake at the time.
00:03:25It helped out Carney and it would have hurt the conservatives a bit.
00:03:29And then but after Carney starts messing up more, who's actually suffering in the polls?
00:03:33It's not the liberals. For some reason, Polly keeps going down more.
00:03:38That is effectively the trend line that we're looking at here.
00:03:41It makes absolutely no sense. And I'm not just saying it makes no sense because I feel like it doesn't make sense. I will show you how their own regional numbers don't make any sense when it comes to how Canadian elections actually work, where the strength of the party is. And if a party goes up and down in the polls, where do we expect that support to be bleeding from or rising in?
00:04:05So in just a second, I'm going to erase this board and then we're going to get to some of the regionals.
00:04:09And then I want to go back to that Nanos poll that came out where they were saying there's no opponent of Mark Carney right now from the Conservatives.
00:04:17Because there's a bunch of people trying to pump that up again, because, again, the news cycle sucks for Carney.
00:04:22So now they want to talk about a poll from last week that there's no good news for Carney right now.
00:04:27But before I erase the board, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on the video.
00:04:32subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber and consider hitting the join button if you like
00:04:37these style of videos since I'm kind of the only conservative YouTuber in Canada who does these
00:04:42so if you want to contribute a few dollars a month it really does help make the channel
00:04:46more sustainable for me join button is right below the video as well as pinned at the top
00:04:51the comment the link to the membership program anyways I'm pausing erasing this then we will
00:04:56be getting into the ResearchCo regionals. Over and over again, the region that you will see
00:05:03bad quality pollsters messing up is prairies. Prairies is always the thing that is way off.
00:05:10Whenever you see an awful poll from Frank Graves at ECOS, it will usually be their Manitoba-Saskatchewan
00:05:17sample that completely dumps, because it's a complicated region. Saskatchewan is very,
00:05:23conservative. The only liberal seat in the entire province is the big northern rural seat that just
00:05:29happens to have a lot of reserves in it where people vote liberal. And in Manitoba, things are
00:05:34actually still quite conservative. Southern Manitoba, especially rural areas, goes very
00:05:38conservative. Winnipeg is a bit of a mix between liberals and NDP, although there's only one NDP
00:05:44seat left in Winnipeg, although these days they'll probably be bumping up their support more and more
00:05:49since WAP canoes heavily backing them, and then the Liberals win the North. But when you combine
00:05:54those two provinces together, and remember that Saskatchewan is still a little bit bigger than
00:05:58Manitoba, you naturally assume that you're going to have a plurality or majority of people who are
00:06:04going to be voting conservative in that region. But what does this new ResearchCo poll have?
00:06:10Well, this new ResearchCo poll, which everyone is saying is COPE if for some reason you don't
00:06:15believe it. ResearchCo currently has Manitoba, Saskatchewan going 42% liberal. It's absolutely
00:06:26wild that they would be that high in this region, especially because they usually share the rise in
00:06:33the left-wing vote in that province with the NDP. Hopefully I'm writing that in an attractive way
00:06:39on the screen. Yeah, that's fine enough. I'm going to write the other poll. I'm going to compare it
00:06:42to regionally over there in just a second. It's not even like they're at 42 and the conservatives
00:06:48are very, you know, very mildly behind them at maybe 40 or 39. No, the conservative party
00:06:56and Pierre Polyev in Manitoba, according to this research co-poll, are at 29% support.
00:07:04okay i guess and then the ndp are at 13 percent not too bad for them considering how badly they
00:07:14did in the last election and you know who's in fourth place it's not the green party uh it's the
00:07:19ppc who got like one one and a half percent in the province of manitoba and saskatchewan last
00:07:25election they're currently at seven oh wow they're they're just popping off right now everyone wants
00:07:30to vote PPC right now. No, they don't. I can tell you that no, they don't. That doesn't make any
00:07:37sense whatsoever. And even the Green Party in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, the Green Party,
00:07:43Elizabeth May's party, they're at 5%. Dead marker, guys, my goodness. 5% for the Green Party in
00:07:51a rural area and a very rural province is impossible. 5% would actually be putting them
00:07:58in the contention to potentially win a seat because elizabeth may wins her seat in bc with0.99
00:08:04like one or two percent of the vote in the entirety of british columbia like they're very good at0.69
00:08:09concentrating support when they have it five percent would be a coup for the for the um for
00:08:15the greens seven percent for the ppc that's like what they got in manitoba saskatchewan
00:08:20back in 2021's federal election do we think they're going from 0.7 nationally in 25 to getting
00:08:277% regionally in Saskatchewan and Manitoba? No, they're not. And no, I'm going to compare this
00:08:33to an abacus data poll. I'm not even going to compare it to the recent one that puts the
00:08:37Liberals only ahead by six points, which is a far cry from what Research Co and Nanos and
00:08:42ECOS are claiming. I'm going to go back in time. We are going to use a poll from when they were
00:08:48still having the Liberals leading by 10 points, which I would say these days would be a pretty
00:08:53big overpull. Back when they were doing that, it was probably reasonable. Carney was flying high
00:08:57on a bunch of artificial winds. He was fighting with Donald Trump, which always helps him out a
00:09:01little bit. These days, his fighting with Donald Trump doesn't help nearly as much because he's
00:09:05just clearly incompetent. But again, marvel at this. A 13% lead, a plus 13% lead for the liberals0.71
00:09:14in a region that they frequently lose to the conservatives in the general. Even Manitoba alone,
00:09:20They lose it to the Conservatives, and that's without the buffer of Saskatchewan.
00:15:06Whenever a party starts doing better in the polls, typically where its support goes up disproportionately is the areas where they were already popular.
00:15:15That's usually the places that are going to start doing well first.
00:15:18So when the Liberals gain a few points in the polls, it's mostly going to be concentrated in that Montreal, GTA, Vancouver area.
00:15:24And then it kind of has a bit of a ripple effect outward.
00:15:27If Conservatives, like, let's put it this way, Conservatives gain five points in the polls tomorrow.
00:15:32If we saw that it was oddly concentrated in Quebec, probably doubt that poll.
00:15:37If you see a poll that sometimes, they sometimes do include Toronto-only samples inside their Ontario sample.
00:15:43If you saw Toronto getting close, but for some reason, the Alberta margin is like normal, like, you know, 53%, 55% liberal or conservative and like 27, 28 liberal. And but then for some reason, Toronto is getting tight, like, no, it's not.
00:16:00Typically, if things are going to tighten for a party, if they're going to increase their support, it's going to first concentrate in the areas where they normally get a lot of support, and then it's going to have a lesser increased effect in the regions that are not traditional territories for that party.
00:16:14There's a reason why when the NDP went from 18% of the vote in 21 to six, they didn't just lose all their seats. Typically, you think, oh, wow, they had two thirds of their vote shredded. Well, look at all their incumbents take two thirds of their vote away, they would all lose. That's just not how it works.
00:16:32They first lost those two-thirds from areas they typically don't win in because those people know they're not going to win, and it's a liberal versus conservative race, so they'll do that.
00:16:42Whereas in areas where there's an incumbent NDP who's confident running a good campaign, that's the ridings where they lost six, seven, eight points, but they were still able to hold on by a bit.1.00
00:16:52But now I want to jump over to this, my new favorite YouTuber to talk about, Illyria A, talking about the Nanos poll from last week, because it feels like such a Doth protest too much thing to be doing. The news cycle for Carney has sucked, and I'm actually helping run three by-election polls with Shreya Teest and Northern Watcher for Polywave.0.93
00:17:15We're going to be dropping by-election polls for North Vancouver, Capilano, Chiquitini, Le Fjord, as well as Beaches, East York, just to see how people are reacting to things.
00:17:24And we'll even have specific questions about pipelines or the Billy Bishop Airport or the Alto train based on the region that they're being conducted.
00:17:32And I, the thing is, I think we need, I want good data in this country.
00:17:36And it frustrates me every time we see people pushing bad data, especially when it's only being done because they know the news cycle is bad for Carney.
00:17:45It's almost like this person we're going to talk about is telling on themselves.
00:17:50They know that Carney is not actually, like, he's messing up right now.
00:17:53So we're going to talk about how, hey, this bad poll shows that he's super popular.
00:17:57But I'm just going to pause, clear the board, and then we're going to get into her video talk about the old Nanos poll.
00:18:05So I got the board cleared, and now I'm just going to let Illyria A. here take it away and tell us about how much Canadians like Mark Carney and how no conservative can challenge them.
00:18:19All right. So there is a new poll that came out on August the 4th from Nanos Research, and it was commissioned by CTV News.
00:18:27And here's what was basically asked in the poll.
00:18:29They gave Canadians a list of conservative politicians and said, OK, if any one of these people led the conservative party today, who could actually defeat Mark Carney?
00:18:40It was a simple question. And the answer? Well, one third of the people surveyed said, well, none of them. Nobody on that list.
00:18:50Now, before anyone gets the wrong ideal, this wasn't a poll of the Conservative Party members or supporters, okay?
00:18:57It was a random survey of about 1,100 Canadians from right across Canada, average Canadians, right?
00:19:04So when one-third of them say nobody could beat Mark Carney on that list, that is just the general public speaking, not the party faithful.
00:19:14I like how she says that, not realizing that completely screws up her point.
00:19:18if it's a poll of just every canadian from the poll and that poll had the liberals literally
00:19:25leading i'm not even kidding by 47 points the nanos poll she is citing had 47 percent of people
00:19:33saying they're voting liberal and like i believe the ndp was at like 11 or 13 percent of the vote
00:19:38it's an extremely left-wing poll and you're shocked that a plurality of people said that
00:19:45Carney cannot be beaten by any conservative. As you get more into the stats, you can see how the
00:19:51whole thing is basically cooked to come to the conclusion that Carney's the greatest and0.99
00:19:56Polyev and the Conservative Party suck. But let's break it down because I want you guys to actually
00:20:03know the real numbers before I get into why this matters. So in the poll, Stephen Harper,
00:20:12the former Prime Minister of Canada, ended up topping the list at 16%.
00:20:17Pierre Polyev, the current leader of the opposition, he only got 15%.
00:20:52So the best Canadians think the Conservatives can do when asked who could beat the current Prime Minister was 16% for a guy who isn't even running.
00:21:02who who i'm sorry but like the only person running to be prime minister is the person who's leading
00:21:09the conservative party and there's effectively really no difference within the margin of error
00:21:13between harper and pure poly of here like she's trying to act like oh look they couldn't get the
00:21:18best they could do with 16 i'm like of course the best they could do with 16 as she has admitted
00:21:25they broke up all of the nobody can beat mark carney options not just between harper poly of
00:21:32and ford they've broken up between harper polly afford other a bunch of other options and then
00:21:38probably also people who don't know they just are genuinely undecided and by the way probably the
00:21:42right answer you probably shouldn't know gun to your head uncertainty who can beat mark carney
00:21:48you know we're just not really in that sort of we're just you know you can never really know
00:21:52who's going to be able to beat the current prime minister when we're not even anywhere close to an
00:21:57an election cycle and we don't know what the issues are going to be and just like anyone can
00:22:01beat him and then also anyone can lose to him but like do we do we see the problem here do i do i
00:22:07need to really do the math for everybody here like obviously if you're in the audience you don't need
00:22:12me to do the math we have 33 percent of people who are saying that nobody can beat him and by the way
00:22:18remember 47 percent of people in this poll were liberal party supporters and then there was also
00:22:24block and NDP people who wouldn't be completely unopposed to being able to admit that Carney can't
00:22:30be beaten. But 33, only 33 of respondents said nobody can beat Prime Minister Carney. But when
00:22:37you add all of this together, when you add other Doug Ford, Stephen Harper, Pierre Polyevin Harper,
00:22:45we're at not just 40, there's, these are 42% combined, all three of these major options,
00:22:51plus 25% naturally we are at 67% of people who think that Carney can be beaten by someone or
00:23:01they're not quite sure who somebody would be who could beat him or they don't know if he can be
00:23:06beaten or not like what this is just a cooked pull by Nick Nanos to be able to get some good
00:23:12headlines for Mark Carney while the liberals are going through an absolute nightmare news cycle
00:23:17now that doesn't mean I think that by next week the conservatives are going to be leading
00:23:21they could tighten it up to being like plus two maybe the liberals within the margin of error of
00:23:26the past polls go up to plus five in angus reed or plus seven in abacus but i think the general
00:23:33trend over the next month or two unless he somehow has a crazy good deal none of us expected but
00:23:38doesn't sound like it they're going to start losing confidence with certain canadians who
00:23:42typically would have at least considered voting for them but guys like what are the fact that
00:23:48the news served this raw garbage up to you is telling about what they care most about. It's
00:23:56about making Carney look good. Turning one third of people saying nobody can beat him in one of the
00:24:01most liberal leaning polls out there into, oh my goodness, what a robust leader. What an amazing,
00:24:07what an amazing stalwart man to be leading this country. Nobody can think of anyone else to beat
00:24:12him because we made one option that basically says, I like Mark Carney. And then we had 17
00:24:17other buttons that said somebody else. And we're like, oh my goodness, the top rated answer was
00:24:22only 16%. I'm like, that's kind of impressive because you gave people an abundance of choice
00:24:28and still 16, 15 and 11% of people chose these specific options. When there were other good
00:24:34people mentioned there, Rona Ambrose, probably Stockwell Days in there, Jamil Giovanni,
00:24:39there's Lisa Raitt there's many people who I think are quite good conservatives and you still got a
00:24:44decent amount of consolidation around the former prime minister and current conservative party
00:24:49leader despite throwing all these things out at people but Illyria A is not analyzing this she's
00:24:55non non-compost mentis when it comes to uh when it comes to actually thinking about this poll past0.98
00:25:00the surface level because she's on a mission a mission from Carney who left politics years ago
00:25:06and the guy who is running the leader of the opposition only 15 percent of canadians thought
00:25:12he could beat mark carney i mean no no no no not only not only 15 percent of people thought he
00:25:19could beat mark carney you did not do a poll where it was can it can polly have beat mark carney yes
00:25:26no unsure if you did that and only 15 percent of people said yes he could beat him really bad
00:25:32result. Now, you'd have to temper that with the fact this is a super liberal poll. That would be
00:25:36a not good result for Pierre Pauly. Undoubtedly, that would be a bad result. You can't just say,
00:25:41oh, only 15% of people think he can. Well, you can still think he can beat him, but you really
00:25:47like Jamil Giovanni, so you selected Jamil Giovanni, or you really like Lisa Raid, or you really like
00:25:51Stephen Harper, or for some reason, I don't know why, you said I like Doug Ford better. That's
00:25:56really it's like a popularity contest stapled onto a poll where we're asking whether or not
00:26:02people think that Carney can be beaten like Nick Nanos is a fraud if he actually thinks
00:26:09that this was a good way of answering a poll or asking a poll question like no this is just
00:26:16embarrassing keep in mind that list does include people who would never vote for conservatives in
00:26:23like a million years and so some in fact that actually makes it look really good did you know
00:26:29in this poll do you know how many people actually were voting conservative rounded up in this poll
00:26:35compared to the 47 percent of people voting liberal 28 28 in this nanos poll said they would
00:26:42they were voting conservative it was a super super left-wing leaning poll and still in a poll where
00:26:48only 28 of people are voting conservative and maybe one percent of people are voting ppc and
00:26:53are more right wing. 67% of people still did not agree that nobody can be Carney. And they were
00:26:58even significantly naming people like Harper and Polly, despite the fact that like 10,000 other
00:27:03options were also available. So the funny thing is the poll ends up proving the opposite. In a
00:27:09certain sense, you could read in far more reasonably that he actually is kind of vulnerable
00:27:15because even a liberal poll doesn't have like a hard consensus that he can't be beaten. It's not
00:27:19of majority of people saying he can't be beaten right now. By the way, if you ask the same
00:27:23question, probably in Nick Nanos' bad polling four or five months ago, probably this number
00:27:28would be more like 50% because that's when he was riding really high. He's not riding so high
00:27:33anymore. So they had to screw with the poll to make it look like he's still riding high when we
00:27:38really just made sure to chop all of the opposition up so that it doesn't consolidate anywhere in
00:27:43particular. I'll let her go on a little bit more. Then I want to jump to a clip of Frank Graves.
00:27:47But that none of the above is just liberal and NDP voters saying nobody, right? That's fair. I mean, that's to be expected. But here's the thing. Even setting all of that aside, the official opposition itself, okay, their supporters couldn't point to a single name that Canadians see as a real threat to the prime minister, okay?
00:28:07This wasn't a focus group. This wasn't like a focus group room where you got all the conservatives together and you say, which guy can beat him? And we were all talking about it. We were disagreeing and we couldn't come to a consensus. Like, no, it's anonymous. It's just random people at home picking names. Some of them could even be liberals saying, well, I could see Harper beating him. You know, I don't, maybe I wouldn't vote for him, but I could see Harper beating Carney. I could see Doug Ford beating Carney.
00:28:35But we're just painting within the lines of any color we want, no matter what it is.
00:28:42Now I need to take you guys over to this similarly obnoxious clip of Frank Graves, who runs Ecos, on the horrible Hurley Burley Curse of Politics podcast, where he talks about how shocking it is in his awful poll that the conservatives would only win 50 seats.
00:28:59Even though the Liberal lead is expanded somewhat, it's not dramatically different from the election.
00:29:08But what's impressive is the amount of churning that has gone on to produce what right now is a very commanding position for the Liberals.
00:29:17Even though the numbers aren't that much higher than what they got in the last election,
00:29:22and they narrowly missed the majority, basically in the final stages of that campaign when they were backing up quite a bit,
00:29:29But because of the way the vote splits now, this would produce a massive majority if there was an election to be held in the near future, which obviously there's not supposed to be, but you never know.
00:29:41And what's happened is, even though the Liberals have lost in this binary election the last time where 87% of voters picked one of two choices, which is almost unprecedented, the NDP who are the miserable 6% are now up at 17%.
00:29:59in our poll with some interesting angles about who that is. I actually think it's the more
00:30:03significant story and the one which is perhaps more threatening in the longer term to the Liberals
00:30:09than the collapse of the Conservative Senate. But we'll talk about that. How can you have
00:30:15losing about 12 points of NDP voters who led their votes to the Unliberals,
00:30:22yet you're still ahead? Well, the answer is pretty straightforward. They have
00:30:27absorbed maybe even swallowed would be the better term the conservatives who are status quo
00:30:32conservatives who are not particularly disinformed who are not attracted to some of the right-wing
00:30:37populism which is he mentions disinformed voters because ecos frank graves pollster always does the0.97
00:30:43stupid disinformation poll where they rate which party supporters are more likely to fall for0.81
00:30:47disinformation and it really ends up just being a poll of do you agree with frank graves's0.99
00:30:52particular political opinions like some of the stuff doesn't even make any sense like it's
00:30:57considered disinformation if you don't believe that humans contribute the most to climate change
00:31:04and not natural causes which is just true that it's mostly natural causes which is why the climate
00:31:09changes over time despite the industrial revolution having not started until a couple hundred years
00:31:14ago like that is genuinely something that is in his poll saying that if you believe in disinformation
00:31:21if you don't believe that like driving your car
00:31:24is the biggest factor on the weather on this planet.