The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - November 11, 2026


The Tribes of Britain

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #1546 The Importance of Beautiful Things

Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 4 minutes

Words per minute

188.55

Word count

12,212

Sentence count

251

Harmful content

Misogyny

13

sentences flagged

Toxicity

11

sentences flagged

Hate speech

50

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00 Hi folks, welcome back to another one of our political chats. I'm joined by Dan and today
00:00:04 we're going to be talking about the tribes of Britain and the divisions on the right because
00:00:08 these are things that a lot of information has come out recently and I thought we'd just go
00:00:11 over some of it. Before we begin though, let's have a look at the polls. So the polls have not
00:00:17 changed too substantively since last week but it's becoming quite a normal thing for the
00:00:24 conservatives to either be on parity with or eclipse the reform party now this is something
00:00:30 that conservative talking heads are making a huge amount of uh hay out of you'll see lord
00:00:37 ashcroft has published a poll which i'm not going to include because he is the least reliable of the
00:00:41 pollsters um saying the conservatives are something like five points ahead of reform i mean for a long
00:00:46 time that conservatives were just consistently third it's just third yeah yeah and so and now
00:00:52 Now, as you can see, they're just bobbing and weaving.
00:00:54 Yeah, but the Conservatives, the Conservative agents,
00:00:58 like Lord Ashcroft, Conservative Lord,
00:01:01 are trying to use their polling to drive public opinion, right?
00:01:05 It's very clear that's what they're doing.
00:01:07 However, it is also true that the Conservatives
00:01:10 have had a small bounce, although it's levelled off
00:01:14 and it hasn't been terribly significant,
00:01:16 but it is enough to put them in poll position with reform.
00:01:20 here they are on 22 and 21 according to politico um this is electionmaps.uk and as you can see for
00:01:27 them the conservatives very slightly ahead and there is a pollcheck.co.uk and again they have
00:01:35 them very slightly ahead as well but again the key thing is is the conservatives are trending up
00:01:40 the form of trending down yeah if you were keby bay not you would be very happy with this situation
00:01:45 it's the best you've had in a long time it's probably the best you've had
00:01:49 entirely under your leadership in fact so yeah this is this is good news for them the sort of
00:01:55 reconstitution of the uni party and so you'll find um that this is just completely normal this
00:02:04 this is a well-repeated pattern in the polling there's probably something to it right it's
00:02:09 probably the case that reform are slipping into third place now and like we've discussed previously
00:02:14 we don't know what the bottom of this is right we don't know how much lower we'll go we don't
00:02:21 know how much longer Nigel Farage will stick around yeah but that's not the that's not the
00:02:25 subject for today so anyway so I thought we'd talk about the tribes right so these are the sort of
00:02:30 tribes of the British electorate now this is from electoral calculus and this will be relevant a bit
00:02:36 later in this podcast so they uh they break down the tribes of the country into the following so
00:02:44 they say strong left who are obviously economic very left-wing uh nationally very globalist and
00:02:50 socially very liberal uh these would be the jeremy corbyns of the world the czaru sultanas of the
00:02:55 world then you have traditionalists who this is the sort of i guess the red wall sorts of types
00:03:02 who are fairly left-wing economically but moderate nationally moderate socially i mean maybe they're
00:03:08 not even the red walls i'm not even sure then you got the progressives and these are the lib dem
00:03:14 types the mildly left-wing economically quite globalist nationally and socially quite liberal
00:03:20 then you have centrists who are just average on everything and then on the right you've got the
00:03:25 somewheres which are the slightly left-wing economically but the strongly national nationalist
00:03:30 and they're strongly socially conservative i mean the only thing that stands out for me here is
00:03:35 is there isn't a left-wing option for being economically left but socially right
00:03:40 and that was the left-wing movement in this country for well over 100 years yes if you go
00:03:46 if you go back to a 19 i don't know 1950s labor voter that they were up for none of this social
00:03:52 liberalization stuff none of it whatsoever they they was as as conservative on the social side
00:03:58 as you could be but and they're trying to argue that that just doesn't exist anymore i'm less
00:04:03 certain that that is true well i'm guessing that's what the traditionalists are in there
00:04:07 they're moderately social as in they're not liberal or conservative maybe but i don't know
00:04:13 this is just what they've uh come up with so the somewheres are the people that i think i probably
00:04:20 most identify with um i wouldn't necessarily say i'm economically left-wing but i i'm not like a
00:04:26 an ardent ideological capitalist and i can see the argument for certain things and certain
00:04:33 jurisdictions where it's actually useful right as in nationalizing railways because why would we
00:04:38 want foreign governments earning our railways there's no strong argument why not be strong
00:04:43 right because that way you get to be you know very right wing on economics very conservative
00:04:47 on social stuff and also a bit nationalist on the on the national front because i'm strongly
00:04:53 nationalist strongly conservative that's why fair enough anyway then you've got the kind young
00:05:00 capitalists who are quite right-wing economically which again what that even means these days is
00:05:07 up for debate but they're mildly globalist and mildly liberal so they're left-wingers basically
00:05:12 they're free marketer left-wingers and then you've got the strong right who are very right-wing
00:05:16 economically this is where Rupert Logue falls by the way they're nationalist and they are of course
00:05:22 socially conservative so that's that's fairly straightforward more in common also have their
00:05:29 tribes of britain as well uh and you can find out where you are now this is more useful because it
00:05:36 gives us percentage-based breakdown so you've got progressive activists i'm just going to increase
00:05:40 the size of that because i'm an old man these are the true nutters then the blue hairs go
00:05:46 a palestinian march with a rainbow flag yeah people yeah that's exactly these are the proper
00:05:52 nut jobs highly engaged so excessively online globally minded group driven by concerns about
00:05:58 social justice this is jeremy corbyn spiteful mutants i mean just just genuinely weird people
00:06:04 yes politically active but feeling increasingly alienated from mainstream party politics
00:06:10 these are the people that andy burnham has been stitching back into the labor party
00:06:14 right these are the people who fled to the green party under kissed under kissed armor and andy
00:06:19 burnham is bringing back because he's like well i kind of agree with everything but i'm also
00:06:24 normal and i don't hate the world yes but i do agree ideologically that you know we should destroy
00:06:31 the country i mean these people would be school shooters if they had access to firearms i mean 0.99
00:06:34 they're bloody ass let's hope not um anyway like i can understand why starboard wanted nothing to 0.99
00:06:41 do with this group yeah i know but unfortunately just like with politics doesn't work like that 0.99
00:06:44 just like with nigel forage and his right flag you don't get to make those kind of decisions
00:06:48 yeah um anyway they they prioritize issues such as climate change and international affairs so
00:06:53 palestine and greta thunberg occasionally outliers on social issues they maintain
00:06:57 strongly held and sometimes an uncompromising approach to their beliefs yes because they're
00:07:02 bonkers but you've got the incrementalist left so this is the andy burnham left right a civic
00:07:10 minded community oriented group holding views which are generally left to center but with an
00:07:14 aversion to the extreme they prefer gradual reform over revolutionary change they trust
00:07:18 experts and institutions yet are largely tuned out of day-to-day politics and can be conflict
00:07:23 diverse, stepping away from issues they see as particularly fraught or complex. Okay, that is
00:07:28 100% Andy Burnham. I know, right? You've just read out a description of Andy Burnham. That is
00:07:31 100% Andy Burnham. I mean, apart from the not being in tune with the day-to-day politics,
00:07:38 that's kind of Blair Wright as well. Well, that's kind of his job as Prime Minister, but
00:07:41 stepping away from issues they see as particularly fraught or complex, my god, that couldn't be a
00:07:45 better description of Andy Burnham, could it? Anyway, then you've got the established liberals.
00:07:49 so these are the people who write for the guardian a prosperous confidence section
00:07:53 segment who believe the system broadly works as it is and who trust experts to deliver continued
00:07:58 progress they have strong belief in individual agency which can make them less empathetic to
00:08:02 those who are struggling maybe not entirely guardian institutionally trusting they maintain
00:08:07 faith in democratic processes and have strong information-centric way of engaging with issues
00:08:12 So, basically, professors, that sort of type.
00:08:17 Well, also, most of the EU establishment fall into this. 0.80
00:08:20 Because like Ursula von der Leyen, for example, she's not actually a leftist.
00:08:24 No.
00:08:25 This actually fits with her more.
00:08:27 It's like the establishment, the procedures, the institutions, the trust in the systems and the experts.
00:08:35 I can see it being a smaller percentage here, like 9% of the population or whatever.
00:08:40 But this class will almost certainly be strongly represented at the top. 1.00
00:08:45 So civil service and no doubt a whole bunch of the quangos. 0.99
00:08:50 I mean, essentially, establishment liberal, 0.95
00:08:52 that is the ruling class of this country, more or less.
00:08:56 You're exactly right.
00:08:57 People who've gone through the education system
00:08:58 have personally benefited from it
00:09:01 and therefore put their complete and total faith in it.
00:09:03 Therefore, complete remainers, complete technocrats,
00:09:07 constantly convinced, exactly as you say,
00:09:09 that the system is brilliant and it needs to carry on forever so anyway then you have skeptical
00:09:15 scrollers so these are a digitally native group whose unhappiness with the social contract
00:09:19 means they have lost faith in traditional institutions and seek alternative sources
00:09:23 of truth online often shaped by their experience of the covid pandemic they prefer individual
00:09:27 influences over mainstream media and are increasingly drawn to conspiratorial thinking
00:09:31 i hate to say this but this is the russell brands of the world i can see myself in bits of this it's
00:09:37 not a complete description but i've got i've got i've got at least sympathy for these people these
00:09:42 people i could i could go to the pub with yes yeah you you could have at least a reasonable
00:09:46 conversation with them even if they are a little bit more conspiratorial but this is the kind of
00:09:51 russell brand audience right yeah i can see that you see what i mean like these these people are
00:09:55 you know digitally native they're very they understand that there's something about the
00:10:00 system that isn't right haven't fully thought it through and are likely to reach for something
00:10:05 which is a bit woo yes yeah yeah yeah the kind of um the hippie right maybe you could call them
00:10:11 yes but uh anyway you've got the rooted patriots patriotic but politically untethered group which
00:10:17 feels abandoned and overlooked by the political elites yearns for leaders with common sense but
00:10:21 does not want to overthrow the system as a whole they are particularly concerned about community
00:10:25 decline the pressures of integration of migration interventionist on economics but conservative on
00:10:30 social issues they've shaped much of britain's politics over the past decade and that's 20 of
00:10:34 the population that's quite a large number yeah that's a big block and that's a that's a block
00:10:38 that's definitely not strong enough for me yet but sure but that's that's that's we're moving
00:10:42 into our orbit now we are and but that that's a block that we can definitely speak their language
00:10:47 to oh yeah and so you know yeah winning that is is core or in fact i mean restore reform
00:10:53 conservatives they've all got to go after that block yeah exactly uh then you've got the
00:10:57 traditional conservatives who are eight percent of the population they're respectful of these are
00:11:01 the Shire Tories. Respectful of authority
00:11:03 and tradition, traditional conservatives believe
00:11:05 in individual responsibility and established norms
00:11:07 that have served them well. Nostalgic for the 0.53
00:11:09 past, but optimistic about the future,
00:11:11 they are deeply sceptical of many forces of change, such
00:11:13 as immigration or the path of net zero.
00:11:15 So this is people who read the Express and the
00:11:17 Daily Mail. Sure, but that's also Rupert Lowe.
00:11:22 He doesn't read the Express
00:11:23 or the Daily Mail, does he? No, but he, but this
00:11:25 description, he's respectful of authority
00:11:27 and tradition, believes in individual
00:11:29 responsibility and the established norms that serve them up i mean that's that's been part of
00:11:33 his crusade against the european union for a long time yeah this is very very well described here
00:11:39 this does appear to be describing an older person yes or you know maybe a sort of
00:11:48 uh the sort of um shire hierarchy types um but anyway you know they are optimistic about the
00:11:56 future they just need they just know that they need to overthrow a bunch of the modernist nonsense
00:12:01 that's happening and they're only eight percent of the population and then you have um i think
00:12:06 where we probably most fall the dissenting disruptors now this is 20 percent of the
00:12:12 population it's a full fifth of the wow that's that's bigger than i thought right now that
00:12:17 goes show you how much the the system has dropped the ball because if you look at like before we go
00:12:21 on to that like traditional conservatives only at eight i mean that that would have been half the
00:12:26 country 50 years ago yeah yeah so you got the skeptical scrolls at 10 yeah the rooted patriots
00:12:32 making it 30 38 then 58 of the population are basically not invested in the system is what
00:12:39 they're saying so just just finish did you finish the description on that so not this one so this
00:12:43 this one is people who are frustrated with their circumstances with an appetite for radical
00:12:47 solutions dissenting disruptors crave dramatic change and strong leadership highly distrustful
00:12:52 of institutions opposed to multiculturalism and feeling disconnected from society they are drawn
00:12:58 to political movements that promise to overhaul the status quo and put people like them first
00:13:01 yeah i like that one this is rupert lowe's audience right yes so yeah so rupert lowe is
00:13:08 stitching together that that and that and that's a potential and probably some of these too
00:13:16 so it's potentially nearly 60 of the country i mean when you describe it like that i mean
00:13:22 I go back to my point about the total addressable market
00:13:25 for each party.
00:13:26 I think you're correct to say Restore is trying to hit those,
00:13:29 what was it, last four or five.
00:13:31 Yeah.
00:13:32 Reform have basically decided that this last block,
00:13:35 which is 20% of the population you're saying,
00:13:36 they've said, no, we don't want these people.
00:13:39 I mean, they've literally kicked those people out of the party.
00:13:41 And that's a third of your total addressable market.
00:13:45 Yes.
00:13:46 If these numbers are accurate,
00:13:48 I mean, it suddenly makes the whole reform downfall
00:13:51 look like how else could it have possibly have gone yeah Nigel Farage has literally told these
00:13:57 people no we're not having radical change can we just very quickly scroll so so those are
00:14:01 definitely out so those are in he wants the traditional conservatives are probably still
00:14:05 mostly with the conservative party yeah but but Farage wants them so conservatives and reform
00:14:10 are going after them rooted patriots these are i think um going to be fairly uh descriptive of
00:14:20 the northerners yeah and that's fine you know but farage might throw out a good percentage of
00:14:26 them as well well he's been trying to get these these these are probably farage's strongest
00:14:29 constituency yeah because as they say right they just want leaders with common sense uh we've been
00:14:35 abandoned we've been left behind we don't want to overthrow the system and that's not been you know
00:14:39 the northerners aren't revolutionaries they're not like destroy britain or anything what they want
00:14:43 is for the system to work for us which is what andy burnham's entire campaign was yeah except
00:14:49 i'm gonna make yeah i mean this sounds like lucy connelly yeah but but this was what andy burnham's
00:14:54 campaign in makefield was i'm gonna make the labor party for us but for the north but for the north
00:14:58 yeah exactly and this is why he's constantly like people like oh yeah identity politics is bad then
00:15:03 andy burnham was like northerners northerners am i right northerners it's like yeah okay let's make
00:15:07 you make a field goes like 99 yeah yeah 54 or something but but the point is identity politics
00:15:12 is just the way politics works right that's andy burnham knew it and he leveraged it yeah and it
00:15:17 It was like, my fellow Northerners.
00:15:19 It was like, okay, great.
00:15:20 Thanks, Andy.
00:15:20 But anyway, these, like I said, interventionists in economics,
00:15:24 but conservative on social issues.
00:15:25 I think he's described in the North there.
00:15:28 And they have been influential.
00:15:30 That's not incorrect.
00:15:31 And so these folks probably could be brought over on the COVID lockdown stuff.
00:15:43 Yeah, I don't think the conservatives could win these guys.
00:15:46 No, I don't think.
00:15:47 reform could win them but i don't see why restore couldn't well rupert low went on peter mcormack's
00:15:53 podcast yesterday and said well look for the covid lockdowns we're going to have we bring private
00:15:58 prosecutions against a bunch of these people who were instrumental in the covid lockdowns
00:16:01 we're coming after them there's going to be accountability i could see these guys saying
00:16:06 yeah okay i'm i'm i'm up for a bit of accountability for what i did to society so you know who knows
00:16:12 and i'm very sympathetic to these guys if i didn't understand if i didn't understand economics i
00:16:16 could easily be in this in this group here oh yeah i mean i've probably been through this group
00:16:20 like you know on my political journey i don't doubt that i was one of these back in like 2016
00:16:24 or something 2014 i was just like well hang on a second what are you talking about and
00:16:29 is that is that in your 60 percent or were we up to yeah yeah that's that's that's that's the
00:16:34 included it's 58 percent in total but yeah so that that's the sort of like i suppose the sort
00:16:39 of softest end of it and then it starts going through the rooted patriots 30 percent traditional
00:16:44 conservatives 38 and then the dissenting disruptors make it 58 just makes it when you look at it like
00:16:50 this i know i said it before but it looks so crazy the reform strategy now when you when you see
00:16:56 yeah we're going to take a third of our addressable market and we're just going to bin it sorry we
00:17:02 don't need you yeah and then wonders why they all show up in restore a few months later i mean
00:17:07 weirdly enough farage has been trying to appeal to the um established liberals weirdly yeah he's
00:17:15 been trying oh no no no we're not racist we're not this we're not that we're we're we're completely
00:17:19 centrist mainstream parties like well but who's that winning over the established liberals again
00:17:23 this is the thing that right-wing leaders i mean we just saw it we just saw it with trump
00:17:28 like yesterday yeah trump comes out of the midterms and he's like okay well maybe we need
00:17:32 to do an amnesty then and it's like the the the long bedraggled story of right-wing leaders
00:17:38 trying to appeal to people who hate them but it never works they always still hate you so stop
00:17:44 doing it but right-wing leaders for whatever reason are desperate to appeal to the people
00:17:48 who hate them yeah so that nine percent's off the table the incrementalist left no way are they
00:17:54 going for farage so that's 30 off the table progressive activists no way they'd burn you
00:18:01 the line anywhere near me yeah exactly they'd guy forks you if they had the choice yeah so that's
00:18:06 42 that is just completely off the table yeah right don't worry about these people you're never
00:18:11 going to get them to stop calling you racist so stop pandering to them exactly who's not going
00:18:16 to call you a racist well these people aren't going to call you racist these people aren't
00:18:19 going to call you a racist these people aren't going to call you a racist and these people
00:18:23 might say you're not a racist as a negative and a pejorative right yeah you're not racist enough
00:18:29 sort yourself out exactly so the point being there's 58 to play for for nigel farage and 42 0.61
00:18:36 that's permanently off the table so why aren't you going for those people anyway so luke trill
00:18:42 from more in common uh has been looking at this uh quite in depth right so he says look there's
00:18:48 been much focus on the conservative reform battle with the pollsters including more in common seeing
00:18:52 crossover as the conservatives edge ahead of reform albeit with a margin of error a year
00:18:57 ago reform led by over 10 points so what divides are there on the right and as you can see the
00:19:01 conservative share of the right-wing block is 46 which is about 23 of the overall uh the reform
00:19:09 share is now 44 but our share is 10 and and this is this is the thing that this is why i'm not
00:19:14 worried right when people say okay well okay you're never gonna get more than one percent okay
00:19:19 well we got three and then we got seven and then we got ten and and people people say to me and
00:19:23 And there's so many people, as you just demonstrated,
00:19:25 there are so many people who are sympathetic to Restore.
00:19:28 Oh, yeah.
00:19:29 But the thing that's holding them back is,
00:19:31 well, you're not going to win the next election, are you?
00:19:33 So maybe I'll be sympathetic and I'll come over.
00:19:35 But you can see, when you zoom out like that,
00:19:37 well, the whole thing, really, but particularly the top part,
00:19:41 you can see how rapidly politics can change
00:19:44 in a short period of time.
00:19:45 I mean, I've already mentioned America,
00:19:46 but again, it serves my purpose.
00:19:48 Two years ago, when Trump came in with that massive landslide,
00:19:51 won the popular vote,
00:19:52 you thought that the democrats were done it was over yeah the democrats were done for a generation
00:19:57 two years later utter utter reversal if you go back 18 months because one of israel's wars to
00:20:03 destroy it all yeah you you go back 18 months in this country yeah and it looked like the
00:20:08 conservatives were done looked like labor were done yeah if let's let's go back three years
00:20:13 this is where kia starmer wins the general election yeah remember only before then they
00:20:16 were like 45 there was one point where they were like 50 i mean that what what i mean what six
00:20:22 months can do to politics let alone 18 months let alone two years right so so this is the thing it's
00:20:28 like i am not concerned in the slightest when we've got two years left to play having seen that
00:20:33 you go from absolute trump victory to absolute trump wipeout you can go from from keir starmer
00:20:40 leading by a mile to keir starmer you know looking like he was going to end the labor party
00:20:45 to reform being top of the bill uh to you know slumping down below the conservative i mean two
00:20:52 years is an enormous amount of time in politics no you're completely right it's a phenomenal amount
00:20:57 of time in politics and the ground that russault has made already is really really quick so yeah
00:21:04 like one in ten right wingers in the entire country or people like who would vote to the right
00:21:09 uh are already like no i'm russault and and i remember all of that the top part
00:21:14 i remember all of that like it was yesterday i mean i know i'm not getting old and therefore
00:21:18 time appears to pass quite quickly for me it wasn't that long yeah i remember yeah it wasn't
00:21:24 that long and then you and then you look at the bit that restore is on it's like a blip it's like
00:21:28 that yeah well i mean it literally is a blip like that's just like yeah but so like of the descent i
00:21:35 imagine a lot of the restore vote is dissenting disruptors right so that that's you know we've
00:21:40 probably got probably about half of the dissenting disruptors already right so that's very interesting
00:21:45 and the other half the moment they think oh actually reform i think i think that's where
00:21:50 i'm going to put my vote for now because you you you referenced the uh the poll that we saw the
00:21:55 other day i think it was from more uncommon about the um first preference no tactical voting poll
00:22:00 i haven't got it for this one oh yeah yeah yeah where we got 10 percent in a national
00:22:04 survey where it's just like look assuming that you weren't going to vote tactically just who
00:22:08 would you go for and 10% were like yeah restore Britain that that is a huge huge percentage after
00:22:14 nine months so yeah like you say in two years a lot can change a lot can change anyway let's let's
00:22:20 move on so Luke's let's go through Luke's thread here right so since May reform have fallen seven
00:22:26 points in the conservatives risen four points reform faces a pincer movement losing softer
00:22:31 rooted patriots left and right traditional conservatives going back to the Tories well
00:22:35 where reform now trails by 13 points
00:22:38 and a 14-point drop amongst their base
00:22:39 amongst dissenting disruptors driven by restore.
00:22:43 So, I mean, if we're getting 14 points
00:22:46 of dissenting disruptors,
00:22:47 that's a huge, huge margin that we're picking up.
00:22:53 As you can see here, this is an...
00:22:55 I'm glad you explained all these categories previously
00:22:57 because otherwise that tweet would have made no sense to me.
00:22:59 But now you have.
00:23:00 Right, right.
00:23:01 This is quite potent.
00:23:03 Right, this is really useful information.
00:23:04 it's really really interesting so the established liberals of course restore less than one percent
00:23:11 right the eurocrats oh no we've lost them right we've lost erstle von der Leyen's vote yeah yeah
00:23:19 exactly unsurprisingly 40 of those to labor but they're only nine percent of the electorate so
00:23:24 that's about four percent in total that labor is scooped up there obviously 32 of them go to the
00:23:30 conservative 17 percent of the lib dems five percent of reform three percent of the greens
00:23:34 one center stall okay not not worried about that the rooted patriots as you can see they are the
00:23:42 north right you can see the bat the bending here right because they were a lot of them if it goes
00:23:47 i don't know how far back this goes 2024 if we could go back a bit further but if we can go back
00:23:52 to like 2019 i bet that's where boris wins over the red wall right and that downswing there is
00:23:58 boris you know losing the red wall and then going yeah okay i can't trust the tories uh but that's
00:24:05 where nigel farage was getting his huge upswing we got a bit of work to do in the nicer bits of
00:24:10 yorkshire not even the nice bits no we've got work to do in the bits that have been diversified
00:24:15 like in in places like makerfield actually where as our as our own very own uh uh luca found there
00:24:23 was a lot of sympathy even for like yeah i like restore but i'm going to vote for labor because
00:24:26 I trust Andy, or I'm going to vote for Faraj
00:24:28 because he's the most likely to win this from the right.
00:24:31 Because he's saying north, north, north every day.
00:24:34 Yeah, exactly.
00:24:35 But reform were winning a lot in that category,
00:24:39 but they've been losing that a lot.
00:24:42 Restore, 6%, not bad, not bad.
00:24:45 Then you've got the traditional conservatives, of course.
00:24:49 What a shock.
00:24:50 The conservatives should own that,
00:24:51 and the fact that they managed to lose it to reform at one point
00:24:54 shows you how badly the conservatives screwed up.
00:24:56 Exactly. I mean, as you can see, going through 25 and early 26, a lot of them went over to reform.
00:25:04 Now they're going back to the conservatives. We've only got 3% in that. And of course,
00:25:08 no one else is getting any of those really. So, you know, not surprising. But then, but that again,
00:25:13 there's only nine, 8%. What was it? Something like that. But then you've got the dissenting
00:25:18 disruptors, which they were like brilliant. Nigel Farage. Oh no, wait, Nigel Farage.
00:25:22 so you know what's the date on that i can't quite make it out uh that's the 1st of october is that
00:25:29 the point where in where the reform line suddenly it's up to the 1st of october 2026 no no i'm
00:25:35 thinking the bit the reform was going straight up and then that bit it just dropped off it just
00:25:40 started in fact that's 1st of october 2025 just after that is that near when rupert got kicked
00:25:47 out i'm just wondering what the driver is there uh let me just let me just double check
00:25:52 because i don't want to that is a lovely upwards upwards arc that's a that's a space shuttle launch
00:26:00 going on there and then yeah and then all of a sudden you know one of the boosters blows up
00:26:05 march 2025 so um would have been about here okay but uh but anyway okay so it would have been about
00:26:15 when he launched the Restorers of Movement then.
00:26:17 Yeah.
00:26:18 So, yeah, yeah.
00:26:19 It would have been about here
00:26:20 when he launched Restorers of Movement.
00:26:21 But as you can see,
00:26:21 Restorers of Party is already getting 13%
00:26:24 of the dissenting disruptors.
00:26:26 That's a large percentage.
00:26:27 That's a large percentage.
00:26:29 You've got to be worried if you're reformed.
00:26:31 Because you're like, well, hang on a second.
00:26:33 They were meant to be our guys.
00:26:34 We were meant to be pitching to them.
00:26:35 And we kicked out their best representative in our party.
00:26:39 And lots of other ones of them, yeah.
00:26:40 And lots of other ones.
00:26:42 I mean, if you're a dissenting disruptor,
00:26:43 why are you going Tories and Labour?
00:26:45 Like, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
00:26:47 Maybe you're an accelerationist.
00:26:50 That's the only thing I can think of.
00:26:52 Maybe you are, yeah, yeah.
00:26:54 Maybe, like, only the Conservatives
00:26:55 would properly finish off this country.
00:26:58 Anyway, so, like, but like we've been saying,
00:27:01 reform have been getting it from both sides, right?
00:27:03 They didn't capture any of the, sort of,
00:27:06 established left-wing votes.
00:27:08 They are losing to the right,
00:27:09 and in fact, they're losing to the Conservatives
00:27:11 on the left, or, like, the, I don't know what,
00:27:13 I don't even know if left and right is the right way to frame these now
00:27:16 if we've got this prism of the tribes, which I think is useful, actually.
00:27:20 But they aren't pulling in those people who think,
00:27:24 right, okay, we've been left behind and we need help in the Rooted Patriots. 0.95
00:27:29 We want a traditional order to the country. 0.97
00:27:32 They're losing those people.
00:27:33 And the people are like, no, it's one over the system.
00:27:35 They're losing those people.
00:27:36 I mean, if this was a role-playing video game,
00:27:39 Nigel Rogers put all of his points every time he levels up
00:27:42 into traditional conservatives,
00:27:44 ended up with an unbalanced character
00:27:46 and now can't even win traditional conservatives.
00:27:49 But also isn't the most traditional conservative
00:27:52 on the board.
00:27:53 Well, yes.
00:27:54 There are other traditional conservatives
00:27:55 in the conservative party.
00:27:57 And they're actually like,
00:27:58 well, if that's the metric you want to compete with us on,
00:28:01 well, we're going to beat you.
00:28:03 Because we are literally the conservative party. 0.99
00:28:05 And we've got a black woman in charge, duh. 1.00
00:28:07 You know, if you want to play 0.99
00:28:08 conservative anti-racism games,
00:28:10 well, the conservative is going to win that.
00:28:12 And you'll be surprised if you talk to them
00:28:15 how many sort of lifelong Conservatives
00:28:17 will say something, a version of, 0.99
00:28:21 I like Kemi because she can say what we can't.
00:28:25 And they feel that they don't have permission.
00:28:27 Yep. 0.57
00:28:27 But Kemi can say things on their behalf 1.00
00:28:29 because she's black. 1.00
00:28:31 Yeah, because that's what they think. 1.00
00:28:32 The Lib Dem voters they live alongside 0.72
00:28:34 will just scowl at them at the dinner parties.
00:28:37 Anyway, so we've got an age.
00:28:40 No, no, this wasn't the age one.
00:28:41 But anyway, so this, sorry, he's got just another breakdown there from the way that Restore are
00:28:51 taking one in nine 2024 reform voters. Again, it just shows what we've been saying this whole time
00:28:57 is that there is a significant downswing from people who voted reform in 2024. They've only
00:29:03 got three quarters of those votes left. So they've lost a quarter of their own voter base.
00:29:08 and we've been eating that up at 11 percent there so not good for um reform anyway the next one is
00:29:16 age right now this is going to be unsurprising yeah the conservatives win over 75 so we'll go
00:29:23 this in age reverse here so over 75s unsurprisingly the conservatives 41 i am not particularly shocked
00:29:32 to hear that yeah and baby boomers are surprisingly evenly split between the conservatives and reform
00:29:38 at 28 percent again unsurprising i mean i've seen i've seen reforms conference halls yeah
00:29:45 yeah yeah everyone's seen them and and this is another really contested area it's like well
00:29:50 you know triple lock this and you know that and so on yeah nigel farage and the conservatives are
00:29:55 the only parties who came out and like we will defend the triple lock with our lives well with
00:29:59 someone else's lives and our children's blood and our grandchildren's future by god will you
00:30:05 we will defend the triple lot with your grandchildren's future earnings potential
00:30:09 yes that's exactly the message um and generation x who are um established working people like us
00:30:17 uh 27 reform and then 28 labor which is weird only 20 conservative and we're about five percent
00:30:24 there. So that's not too bad. Millennials, however, 35% Labour. Come on. What are we
00:30:30 doing, guys? 19% Conservative, 18% Reform, but 7% Restore. And of course, Gen Z, Labour
00:30:41 and Greens, 15% Reform, 13% Conservative. I mean, that's weird. If you're a young person,
00:30:48 why the hell are you voting Conservative? 0.95
00:30:50 Young people can be absolutely all over the place. I always remember that segment that 0.88
00:30:53 you and i did on the podcast with harry where he he mentioned meeting up with a mate of his back
00:30:58 home and his mate was like um oh yeah i really like everything rupert lowe's doing i love his
00:31:03 stuff uh anyway i'm going to be voting for the green party yeah they can be a bit all over the
00:31:09 shop basically they just want disruption i don't even know i mean maybe yeah probably
00:31:16 but uh but anyway so you can see how politics is uh broken down by age and then of course you've
00:31:23 got by education uh we've got seven percent of people with no degree uh two percent of people
00:31:30 with degree and it's kind of similar across the right really 28 percent of people no degree go
00:31:36 to reform but 22 percent go to labor again you can see where there's no degree holding people
00:31:40 in the north have like dipped down and uh come back up for andy burnham and then it's pretty
00:31:48 predictable once you've become indoctrinated through the education system the question is 0.93
00:31:54 are you a libtard or not as soon as you go through the education system it makes you a libtard 0.77
00:31:58 um based on uh income as well so this is uh people on higher incomes well they vote conservative 0.86
00:32:07 of people on lower incomes tend to vote reform or restore and this is fairly self-evident as well
00:32:14 because poor people rely on their culture for their well-being right they can't insulate
00:32:20 themselves with their wealth so okay no i'm exposed to whatever whatever happens it affects
00:32:26 the poor people first yeah they don't have an option to move to a gated community exactly i
00:32:30 can't distance myself yes from whatever the government policy is and so yeah those people
00:32:36 are like well i i'm i'm a very high earner i vote conservative because i don't want anything about
00:32:41 my high earnings to change if you're close to the ground on the actual changes that are happening
00:32:48 in your community you might be like i'm voting for rupa law i need this to change yeah you you need
00:32:53 your local school to not be like a star wars bar yeah and this this has been my experience of
00:32:59 canvassing for restore britain as well i have i've specifically been going to the more deprived
00:33:07 areas of swindon to talk to those people and i spoke to one woman who after i gave her a leaflet
00:33:13 she was like oh thank god and you wouldn't have known by looking at she was like i'm just too
00:33:16 scared to go into the town center anymore i'm just too scared to do it i can't in swindon in 0.58
00:33:20 swindon right and swindon is not i take it she's a lifelong swindle swindon local yeah absolutely
00:33:25 and she can't go into her own town center anymore no and and a lot of these people are not like um
00:33:31 uh i don't know what to say like they're not like you know she was like middle-aged woman right
00:33:36 she was obviously just going into the local shop to get something probably working married kids 0.99
00:33:42 i didn't interrogate about just judging by the car she was driving and the way she looked i'm
00:33:46 guessing that's her life situation and she was like yeah i'm too scared to go into the local town
00:33:50 so i said yeah unsurprisingly she was very receptive to restore britain leaflet i i found
00:33:55 something similar years ago when i was when i was canvassing for ukip and i was doing it in a sort of
00:34:02 um a london borough but not right in the center a little bit out uh where a lot of people commute
00:34:08 in and what i found very quickly is if if it's one of the more expensive houses and it's got a bmw
00:34:14 or an audi outside it's going to be labor because they probably got a high-paying public sector job
00:34:19 if you go to the poorer parts they were well infused by ukip yeah as the offering was back
00:34:25 then so yeah i mean there is this old idea that you just become more right wing as you get as you
00:34:31 get wealthier no you become more sort of conservative as you get as you get richer you
00:34:36 don't get the right wing is a different spectrum to that yeah um anyway so another interesting
00:34:42 thing that luke has done here is poll people about what the barriers are to joining each party on the
00:34:49 right and this or at least the conservatives and reform now this is particularly interesting so
00:34:55 the main reasons given for not voting for each party the top five answers for all bris shadows
00:35:00 so and they um to say how many people they polled no but it's probably a couple of thousand people
00:35:06 right so um the the the reason that people don't want to vote conservative are the conservatives
00:35:12 don't understand ordinary people 26 well judging by the economic information i can believe that
00:35:18 the conservatives don't represent my values or beliefs 21 now i don't even know what values
00:35:25 beliefs the conservatives think that they represent at this point
00:35:28 the post-millennial blairite order deserving blairism is the only thing that comes to mind
00:35:37 right uh 19 said party gate and other scandals 19 sent the conservatives record in immigration
00:35:44 so that's the right like you they don't understand my beliefs yeah that's the the the the 12 percent
00:35:50 radical progressives like you know those sort of the soft left types and then you've got the the
00:35:56 dissenting disruptors are like you know it's your record on immigration and then the record on
00:36:01 brexit that could come from either side as well yeah it's like well the lib dem types hate you
00:36:06 for brexit well david campaign was was campaigning for maine wasn't he so well yeah but the brexiteers
00:36:11 hate you for brexit because you screwed it up so who knows right but this is interesting the
00:36:16 barriers to reform i don't trust them a quarter of people wow we told you i mean that's the sort
00:36:23 of thing that we keep saying on all these podcasts but to have it laid out in numbers and it's just
00:36:27 clear number one the next one nigel farage seems sleazy or corrupt okay the other thing that we've 0.97
00:36:34 been saying this whole time like that's half of people who are like i don't trust them because
00:36:39 nigel farage seems like a con man i mean very good to very good to luke trill for going out
00:36:44 and pounding the pavement and looking at whatever how many of however many hundreds or thousands of
00:36:49 people that he that he did but he he's basically arrived at the same conclusion as two gen x's
00:36:54 sitting down and having a chat and going yeah people don't trust him and they think he's lazy
00:36:57 so but it's good to get good to get it in data right it is good sky news's preferred pollster
00:37:06 You can either get your political analysis three months early with us
00:37:09 or you could have it in concrete, you know, a bit later.
00:37:13 It's nice for them a few months later to say,
00:37:16 yeah, everything that Dan and Carl were saying was right.
00:37:17 Yes.
00:37:18 But what have we been saying the whole time?
00:37:20 Politics is a character judgment, right?
00:37:23 Nigel Farage is the albatross around Reform's neck
00:37:26 and he's also the pillar holding it up.
00:37:28 You don't hire a babysitter who you don't trust,
00:37:31 just like you don't hire a prime minister who you can't trust.
00:37:34 Yeah.
00:37:34 it's the same it's the same kind of metric and the next one is for our just support for trump
00:37:39 which is basically the same two pillars that with the same two polls we've just gone for
00:37:44 that hits differently depending on whether we talk about trump one or trump two but sure but
00:37:49 you know what the general public are thinking right it's because trump seems like sleazy or
00:37:54 corrupt and i can't trust him to the average person in britain so it's it's these are all
00:37:58 basically the same thing and then the party doesn't reflect my values well fair enough that
00:38:02 could be anything and then some candidates and party members are racist so that's why the left
00:38:06 won't join but that was only 17 like that's you know for them for the and this is again why didn't
00:38:13 nigel farage learn this lesson right 83 of people are not bothered by them calling you racist all
00:38:20 day they've heard it before only 17 are like oh yeah well the media have called a bunch of them
00:38:25 racist and therefore i can't vote for them and yet for the last well not even three years i mean
00:38:29 going back into whatever it was the brexit party before that i mean any hint that a candidate might
00:38:36 have once liked a tweet that could be conceived as racist out yeah apart all for 17 percent
00:38:43 apart yeah all for 17 percent you know all of the all of the genuflecting before like the minority
00:38:49 communities all for five percent in uh gorton and denton like yeah like you because they went
00:38:54 after the seek vote incredibly heavily and they got like whatever it was 17 votes out of it yeah
00:38:59 there were only like 500 Sikhs in Gorton and Denton yeah so it's okay and they didn't win
00:39:02 the majority of them anyway no exactly yeah so anyway um so that that's not the biggest
00:39:09 hurdle that reform have to overcome is the media calling them racist somebody should show fraud
00:39:15 these numbers yeah you you would think that somebody would be showing them these numbers
00:39:18 um anyway so that shows us where the information that we get from this is like again most of it
00:39:28 is self-inflicted problems right i mean the conservatives not understanding ordinary people
00:39:33 like they don't represent my beliefs or values it's probably true that like you know on a
00:39:39 political compass there's just a certain you know 20 of people on each side are just incompatible
00:39:45 with the other side right yeah i mean if you know if this were done for the greens in fact
00:39:50 probably be more than 20 who'd be like they just don't represent my political values right so that
00:39:54 that i'm not that worried about because of course you can never win those people but the the
00:39:58 record immigration totally self-inflicted scandals totally self-inflicted oh you're racist again 0.91
00:40:06 like that's not a huge thing that's holding reform back it's nigel farage he seems sleazy 0.74
00:40:13 and corrupt and i don't trust them is what the public are telling us yeah well 17 versus 48 i
00:40:18 mean it's a bit of a difference yeah exactly you you make your decisions so anyway no uh jacob
00:40:23 his mog was like well the right must unite under the conservative banner no not a chance i mean
00:40:31 i don't trust your record on immigration or brexit frankly and you don't seem to represent
00:40:36 my values or beliefs well and this is the guy who last week called us a mongrel race yeah exactly
00:40:41 it's like sorry i'm not uniting under that mr mog uh nigel farage's pitch is uh we're the only
00:40:48 party sounding the alarm on the boris wave it must be stopped and reversed well that's a big
00:40:53 difference from a year ago when you were on steven edgington going well we can't do any
00:40:57 mass deportations those people are here now we just have to accept it so or danny kruger last
00:41:02 week saying that the afghans are the inheritors of king alfred or some in danny kruger's defense
00:41:07 that was about six months ago now but yeah still doing that well if if we had spoken to him last
00:41:11 week he would have said it again you know you know what he's like but i mean you can see my
00:41:15 post of the first one below that's not that's not true that's just a false statement here's
00:41:20 rupert low from 2025 september the boris wave must be emphatically reversed you're not the only
00:41:25 party signing the alarm on it in fact you had to be dragged to that position it's taken a year
00:41:31 for rupert low's words to come out of your mouth he could have been in your party he could have
00:41:36 been your right flank you could have been the beneficiary of all of this activism but you kicked
00:41:40 them out yeah and and if you did have rupert on your right flank he would have plugged in
00:41:45 yeah those dissent whatever they were dissenting he would have brought them in and said don't
00:41:50 worry guys i'll get farage to come to our area and presto coalition exactly that's what the
00:41:55 coalition would have looked like now nigel farage is trying to be both sides of the coalition
00:42:00 and it's like sorry mate that do you think that makes people trust you more you know like no you're
00:42:06 talking out both sides of your mouth yeah i mean you've got this uh sorry he did a pog uh a press
00:42:12 conference like these are my plans who cares right i don't care right i know what nigel farage's
00:42:18 opinion is but um but then you get like uh you know activists who put together these sorts of
00:42:23 clip compilations where they're like oh no actually nigel farage is incredibly based
00:42:28 homes and neighborhoods change beyond recognition you'd agree with that in a lot of england that's
00:42:40 And you know where that's from?
00:42:41 I don't know.
00:42:42 Enoch Powell's Rivers of Bloods.
00:42:44 Is it?
00:42:44 Farage was made a college prefect, much to the disgust of many staff.
00:42:49 In his memoirs, Farage says teachers were hostile as they particularly deplored his spirited defence of Enoch Powell.
00:42:58 What were they saying about him?
00:42:59 To some extent, you might say the accusation from some staff was that Nigel had voiced views that were not simply right-wing,
00:43:08 a few of them were quite clearly racist god if only right so you get you get these compilations
00:43:15 going around and then Nigel Farage just comes out and says well i'm worried about the far right in
00:43:19 this country i i and honestly i'm less concerned with what Nigel Farage thinks about Enoch Powell
00:43:25 and i'm more concerned about what Enoch Powell thought of Nigel Farage well he refused to
00:43:28 endorse him didn't he yes because i think was it was it Nigel am i getting this right no no Farage
00:43:33 asked Powell he used to drive him around yes that's what i was going to say he used to be
00:43:36 is he what he did volunteered for chauffeuring for him and he was quite a young man at the time but
00:43:41 nevertheless not enoch power spent enough time with him that when he came from a recommendation
00:43:46 enoch was like nope you can't trust this guy enoch power got to the elon musk position
00:43:51 whatever it was like 40 years early yeah yeah but uh but yeah anyway he went on the daily tea
00:43:57 podcast and was like well i'm worried about the far right in this country just completely undoing
00:44:01 oh look you know he's he's been racist for years guys yeah i don't know man and then he goes
00:44:06 on the Daily Low-T.
00:44:08 Yeah.
00:44:09 Just to remind us.
00:44:10 Tim Stanley's approval.
00:44:11 Axel Springer is,
00:44:14 I mean, they're basically,
00:44:15 what was that unhinged group?
00:44:17 The first one, 0.99
00:44:18 the spiteful mutants
00:44:19 on our different categories.
00:44:20 Well, no, they're the established liberals.
00:44:23 They want, you know,
00:44:25 they're happy for economic growth,
00:44:26 but they want a European super state.
00:44:28 Yes, that's the right group.
00:44:30 You're right.
00:44:30 That's the right group.
00:44:31 That's what the telegraph is today.
00:44:33 Sorry, which one was it?
00:44:34 It was the kind young capitalists, basically.
00:44:39 That's what the Axel Springer group is.
00:44:42 And it's like, okay, but they're economically right-wingers
00:44:45 and they want infinite capital flow.
00:44:48 They're also globalists and liberals.
00:44:50 Well, they want cheap foreign labour.
00:44:52 Yeah, exactly. 0.99
00:44:53 They want cheap foreign labour. 1.00
00:44:54 So I'm sorry, I just don't trust them and I don't need them. 1.00
00:44:57 I think they're part of the problem, frankly.
00:45:00 And so Nigel Farage has been like, yeah,
00:45:01 I'm worried about the far right in this country. 0.97
00:45:03 it's like okay great nige that's not insurgent energy thank you for that yeah that's protect 0.69
00:45:08 the status quo energy keep keep the labor prices down so that tesco's don't have to see their wage
00:45:14 bill go up yeah yeah exactly um anyway so uh while we're here what i thought we'd do is just take a
00:45:21 look at migration briefly there's a bit of a detour right because a lot's been happening on
00:45:25 migration recently and it's not great but the telegraph well guys there's nothing to worry
00:45:32 about net migration has fallen to the lowest level in three decades that's a really damning
00:45:38 indictment of the conservatives that is just the most the fact that 120 000 is considered i mean
00:45:43 over those three decades it stayed at 120 what 20 000 the country would look very different today
00:45:51 because yeah even though 120 000 is a big big number well my town center wouldn't be flooded 0.99
00:45:57 with foreigners no it it would be noticeable but you'd have to look for it yeah well i'm going to
00:46:02 go through the breakdown of the numbers actually because this and this is the problem with the 1.00
00:46:08 fine young capitalist group they want everything to basically be a return to normalcy so they can
00:46:16 carry on as usual right and carrying on as usual is actually not good so as you say 120 000 net
00:46:22 that's still a lot and also these are not all the same right um this this gets it down to the uh
00:46:31 below the 140 000 that was tony blair's first full year in power in 1998 so even even the very
00:46:38 beginning of tony blair's regime yeah it's still 140 000 a year anyway so on on the on page 44 if
00:46:46 i can scroll my way down to it we've got an actual breakdown here sorry it's gonna be a bit of pain
00:46:51 it's just such a powerful difference between you know a consistent 100 000 for 30 years
00:46:58 and 30 years where you have years where it spikes up to 1.4 million yeah yeah so this is the obr's
00:47:05 report right well they're like well uh the the ons uh estimates have shown this has fallen blah blah
00:47:13 blah uh the near-term decline reflects visa restrictions that were introduced in 2023
00:47:18 that was under the conservatives that wasn't actually under the labor party but the labor
00:47:24 party benefiting from it um net migration is forecast to rise gradually until 2031 to 230
00:47:31 000 a year uh with the principle uh which reflects our assumption that the net outflow of british
00:47:37 nationals and eu nationals who arrived under the pre-brexit immigration regime will gradually
00:47:42 lesson what hang on a second oh what you're telling us is as we go to the nhs ons data from
00:47:51 last year is that actually this is crazy because what we're happening what we're seeing happen here 1.00
00:47:59 right is we've got a massive outflow of british people and a massive inflow of third worlders 1.00
00:48:07 ah shockingly right right so we're letting in about uh 600 uh where is it it's there we go
00:48:17 there we go right so uh non-eu national so third world is 627 000 still in a year right don't get
00:48:25 me wrong that's down from the boris wave right that is down but from you know like the million
00:48:30 plus the boris and the conservatives were letting in so apart so not not an absolutely insane number
00:48:37 of foreigners just half half the insane number of foreigners yeah um but the emigration
00:48:43 is two uh so that's only 278 000 third worlders are leaving each year right 246 000 british
00:48:55 nationals are also leaving and of course 118 000 eu nationals right it could probably be be those
00:49:03 trusted to behave themselves it's not even well i mean yes but like the the the europeans who
00:49:09 actually are net taxpayers are also going and we're replacing them with non-net taxpayers
00:49:15 if a if a german doctor moves in down the end of my street i'm not going to be particularly
00:49:19 concerned probably a decent chap but if if he leaves yes and three sudanese people turn up it
00:49:25 is a very different proposition so actually that 120 isn't reassuring at all yeah actually it 1.00
00:49:31 conceals a a nest of horrors well it does right so let me give you the percentages so 0.99
00:49:37 each year you get about 110 000 british nationals or at least in 2025 110 000 british nationals
00:49:46 re-migrated back to Britain, right? So that was 14% of immigration. 77% of immigration was third
00:49:55 worlders. 77% of the inflow is third worlders, right? Of the outflow, 38% is Britons leaving 0.98
00:50:05 the country. And then 43% is third worlders going home. So what does this equate to? This equates 1.00
00:50:14 to a population replacement we are replacing hard-working young britons fleeing to america 1.00
00:50:20 or australia with third worlders who are filling up the bathtub as it were yes you know 278 000 1.00
00:50:29 of them go home on their student visas or whatever after presumably taking out student loans they'll 0.86
00:50:34 never pay back but we're still bringing in another 350 000 who aren't going and this is
00:50:41 still filling up the bathtub this is what the jacob reese moggs and the and the tim stanley's
00:50:46 don't seem to get to use your bathtub analogy you know they're saying well we're only putting a drop
00:50:50 of acid in your bathtub and it's like yeah but last week you put a bucket in and actually it's
00:50:55 a net drop of acid that you're putting in so i can see my knees dissolving you know this this
00:51:00 this isn't working i'm not sure that's the world's best analogy yeah but what i'm saying is is we are
00:51:05 going to dissolve if we stay in this situation yes we need to extract the acid yes we are we are 1.00
00:51:11 emptying out the country of British people and replacing them with third worlders just at a 1.00
00:51:16 more controlled rate. Yeah, but the damage is already done and it's already corroding us. 1.00
00:51:21 Yes. That's why you need re-migration, not just a more secure border. Yeah, and we're also down 1.00
00:51:26 42,000 Europeans, which fair enough, I mean, that makes sense for them to go home. But what we're 0.99
00:51:32 witnessing is basically a replacement in real time. It's just being done in a managed, controlled,
00:51:37 orderly fashion which is what the jacob breeze moggs and the tim stanley's of the world want
00:51:41 and which is what nigel farage seems to be himself committing to and so it's like okay great just
00:51:46 brilliant but as long as we can set tell ourselves a story as long as we can find a chart that says
00:51:52 look net immigration has come down what you worried about stop thinking about it immigration
00:51:58 isn't a problem guys yeah yeah no it really is it's because the mass emigration of british people
00:52:03 this is such a telegraph article yes now that you now you deconstructed it a bit you you can
00:52:08 see how they can write you an article that leads you to believe one thing and actually the moment 0.94
00:52:13 you scrape under the surface horrors yeah 680 000 third worlders were brought in by the way
00:52:19 what why would you ever bring a single i mean just to be clear if anyone didn't know we're
00:52:24 voting for restore britain and restore britain have a red list where basically none of these
00:52:28 third worlds will be left in let in because they're just on the list of countries we will
00:52:32 not accept immigration from so just not be those people anyway they've decided to announce charlie
00:52:39 downs as a prospective candidate for sitting bourne and sheppy he's a good lad he is a good
00:52:46 lad friend of the show um it's a bit early because a lot of people like what there's there's a there's
00:52:52 a there's election no there's not an election going on it's just that he will be the candidate
00:52:56 come the next election well they're signaling we are going to be rolling out candidates here's the
00:53:01 first one yeah and don't get me wrong uh this is not a not a terrible seat to um pitch to uh in
00:53:09 all fairness isn't that yeah yeah it's massively divided it's divided so down the middle that if
00:53:15 you had to come in with an insurgent party you want a divided field yeah that's exactly right
00:53:21 now this is a reform guy who's like yeah you've got zero chance like well okay fair enough
00:53:26 but reformer on 33 conservatives on 25 and restore on six but that's not what i see right okay so
00:53:33 this this was the last general election was it uh yeah this is the polling average of this seat
00:53:38 okay or is that is that current polling that's current polling of this current polling okay
00:53:43 but if if if if labor is strengthening reform is falling off and conservatives are falling you
00:53:50 could find that the winning percentage could be uh could easily be a 28 maybe even a 26 who knows
00:53:55 where they end up with a bit of hard campaigning as well which means that for an insurgent yeah
00:54:00 it's it's a lot it's a lot easier to come in and win 28 than it is 52 because you already know that
00:54:06 33 are willing to accept a new party off the bat yes but this party didn't exist four years ago
00:54:12 so we know that they're not lifelong reform voters and you've got two years to do it and
00:54:16 you've got two years to do it the conservatives are in a weakened position labor probably not
00:54:21 terribly strong in the southeast anyway and and the other thing is andy burnham hasn't had his
00:54:25 major scandal yet the big ones coming well i mean there is going to be something like a southport in
00:54:31 the next two years probably i can pretty much guarantee it and we haven't seen how he handles
00:54:35 that so let's go back to the electoral calculus and you remember we went through their uh groups
00:54:41 on this um i'm not i'm not i'm not as much a fan of these groups i am the yeah i like i like
00:54:47 luke churl's version yeah me too um but either way we've got some good information here in
00:54:52 sittingborn and sheppy uh so as you can see from the votes in 2024 they ended up getting a labor
00:54:58 uh candidate didn't they yeah they did get a labor yeah they got a labor mp they didn't want a labor
00:55:05 mp they got a labor mp because nigel farage split the vote very almost exactly in half he used to
00:55:13 be in favor of that yeah weird and the conservatives look you're splitting the vote it's like yep well
00:55:17 you know that's what happens but of course sitting modern cheppy doesn't want a labor mp right so
00:55:24 they got the labor mp whether they liked it or not but they've always voted conservative lovely
00:55:27 bit of kent isn't it of course it is right so i mean it's it's you know it's perfectly fine like
00:55:33 uh the average house price is 260 000 pounds the average income is 42 000 pounds so it's a little
00:55:39 bit above average but not not tremendously so it's not like massively wealthy i mean let's say
00:55:43 deprivation 57 percent like it's it's it's not a well-off area necessarily right but it is 93
00:55:51 english and they are like pretty traditional normal people 69 home ownership 57 employed
00:55:59 only 39 of the good education which again education whether you've got a degree or not
00:56:04 significantly influence it the average age 49 nearly 50 tribe strong right right so they're
00:56:13 that's a that's a pretty solid um place to be very right wing nationalist and conservative
00:56:19 more more hang on this is not more in common again what's that this is the electoral calculus oh i
00:56:23 see so um personally i'd probably find myself aligned a bit more strongly with the somewheres
00:56:28 but i totally i totally understand the arguments from this strong right perspective
00:56:34 yeah um not a bad place not a bad place to choose and i imagine that charlie downs is from
00:56:40 somewhere fairly near to this as well so he's he's relatively local um so yeah definitely i mean
00:56:48 obviously 66 percent leave voting you know if if restore britain are going to have a solid chance
00:56:53 anywhere this is as good as places right if he knows the area then this seems like a strong seat
00:56:59 yeah and you know who knows with a bit of hard campaigning for the next couple of years
00:57:03 who knows what this can do so not a bad choice at all like i said he's probably a local lad i'm
00:57:10 sure he's from the south of london uh that sort of area it's um good choice look forward to seeing
00:57:16 what happens yeah good luck yeah exactly you know they've chosen wisely i think with this
00:57:22 constituency i don't think it's a bad choice at all anyway the last thing i want to talk about
00:57:25 is how i keep telling everyone the lib dems are not a left-wing party right the lib dems are an
00:57:31 english traditionalist party and the last one of the nice pieces of the puzzle that have fallen
00:57:38 place here how people feel about bonfire night did you do anything for bonfire night normally
00:57:45 we do normally we go to a bonfire we just happen to have people around this time so
00:57:48 not really but normally we do yes i didn't either it's weird like nobody seemed to do anything and
00:57:55 it is nice to go to a big when they heap up the bonfire and so it's it's fantastic thing to do
00:58:00 yeah you got like food trucks with you know burgers and whatnot and yeah uh they we used
00:58:06 to do them in germany when i was young and we lived out in germany really yeah of course it
00:58:10 was an english camp you did it on the army base okay obviously germans didn't have a clue what
00:58:15 was going on yeah there's nothing to the germans germans had no idea like but there were no germans
00:58:19 around right so british people on the on the camp right um and they used to do a really big one in
00:58:23 on the field near the north of the camp and we'd go down there and it'd be a bit chilly obviously
00:58:28 and so you get glue vine which is hot wine basically and it was really really nice and
00:58:34 you know it'd be a nice thing to have here but anyway i just 70 of people did nothing
00:58:39 only 13 of people went to a fire i feel bad about not having yeah i know right now so i'm next year
00:58:44 i'm going to make the effort yes absolutely to actually go to bonfire nights they are good
00:58:49 and you know i want my kids to have memories of going to bonfire nights i have memories
00:58:53 of going to bonfire nights it's always really nice you know you see the fireworks display and
00:58:57 when they light the bonfire it's it's very cool um but guess who guess who's very much on the
00:59:03 traditional side of what bonfinite means in general do you have a positive or negative view
00:59:09 of the following individuals guy fawkes well obviously the conservatives had a very negative
00:59:15 view the said of the liberal democrats the green party think he's great the labor party think he's
00:59:23 great weirdly reform think he's great probably because they're sick of politicians and sick of
00:59:27 parliament but not the lib dems that is because i mean you'd expect the conservatives to be very
00:59:32 anti-guy forks because he tried to blow up parliament he tried to blow up our institutions
00:59:37 our democracy all that kind of stuff reform want to blow up our institutions not yes no we just 0.78
00:59:44 want to run them we want to run them sensibly we want to put a base chemie in charge of the
00:59:47 institutions and everything's going to be fine but the reform no no but the reform party voters 0.96
00:59:51 are voting for the nigel farage they the media is telling them they're getting yes they're not
00:59:57 voting for the actual nigel farage yes yeah very true they they think great i'm throwing a hand 0.95
01:00:02 grenade at the entire system blow it all up yeah just like guy fawkes i'm totally in favor right 0.99
01:00:06 you can completely understand why reform voters are like i can get i can i immediately get the
01:00:11 reform and the conservatives yeah but yeah you're right the the lib dems they're like oh hang on a
01:00:16 minute they're almost as anti guy fawkes as the conservatives these are ours these are british
01:00:21 institutions english institutions yeah how could you do this whereas the green party and labor
01:00:26 yeah yeah yeah blow up on blow up english institutions we hate them i'm surprised the
01:00:31 green party isn't more more in favor of it but i suppose that you'd have to know who he was lack
01:00:35 of education probably yeah but yeah exactly right so my argument is that the the lib dems are
01:00:41 basically conservatives just who live in a safer area of the country than the average person oh i
01:00:47 always think of them as people who want to opt out of politics yeah same but as i said they're
01:00:52 not a left-wing party they don't they don't align on any other other than virtue signaling in public 0.87
01:00:59 like when it when it's not a virtue signal like you've got ed davie what are these foreigners on
01:01:05 my trains making noise for yeah that's that's not a left-wing position the left-wing position is
01:01:10 everyone should be making noise in the trains yeah and and it's it's unfair to characterize
01:01:13 piddington this way because i know they're part of a larger constituency that that went lib dem
01:01:18 but when you get piddingtoned or you're that woman that that woman that you talked about earlier one
01:01:24 who said she couldn't go into switch she's lived in spindle her whole life she can't go she wasn't
01:01:27 Probably not a Lib Dem voter.
01:01:28 Yeah, but if she was, people like that, 0.91
01:01:31 when modern Britain happens to you, 0.90
01:01:35 I'd imagine it's a lot harder to stay Lib Dem in that direction.
01:01:37 Very true.
01:01:38 But the Lib Dems fundamentally love the traditions of Britain.
01:01:42 Yes.
01:01:42 Particularly England.
01:01:44 Piddington weren't like, we're a people's republic.
01:01:46 They were like, no, we're a principality now.
01:01:48 We're not against the king.
01:01:49 We're not against our own nation. 1.00
01:01:52 We're against having a billion Bermalians dumped on a half doorstep. 1.00
01:01:57 Which is very reasonable, actually. 1.00
01:01:58 I would agree with that, yep.
01:01:59 Yeah, exactly.
01:02:00 The point being, the Lib Dems are actually not leftists.
01:02:04 What they are are people who just want to be thought well of
01:02:06 at the local village fate, right?
01:02:08 Yet another example of how actually they're traditionalists.
01:02:11 They're the hobbits.
01:02:13 They are, they are.
01:02:13 So this is, again, I'm going to keep banging this drum
01:02:16 every time something right-wing that the Lib Dems do,
01:02:20 instinctively, without thinking about it.
01:02:21 Yes.
01:02:22 I'm not sure what we do with this, though.
01:02:23 I mean, what are we doing with the Lib Dems a long time?
01:02:26 Are we trying to win them over?
01:02:27 We want to win them over, yeah.
01:02:29 Right.
01:02:29 Because ultimately, Rupert Lowe is offering them
01:02:32 what they actually want.
01:02:33 And this is why John Cleese has swung hard to Rupert Lowe.
01:02:37 Yes, because when you think about it like that...
01:02:38 It sounds like a Lib Dem voter.
01:02:39 A Lib Dem voter probably isn't going to find Lowe offensive,
01:02:43 but they would absolutely find Farage offensive.
01:02:45 Yeah.
01:02:46 Which explains John Cleese.
01:02:48 Because it is...
01:02:49 And that is exactly what John Cleese has been saying.
01:02:51 Yes.
01:02:52 Because it's a question of character.
01:02:53 Where's that bloody...
01:02:54 Why won't I...
01:02:55 Yeah, that one.
01:02:55 I don't trust them.
01:02:57 They seem sleazy or corrupt.
01:02:58 Well, I mean, like...
01:02:59 And actually, all of those,
01:03:01 that's John Cleese's position.
01:03:03 He hates Trump as well.
01:03:03 He does, yeah.
01:03:04 He does.
01:03:05 He absolutely...
01:03:06 But he was a Lib Dem voter,
01:03:07 inveterate Lib Dem voter.
01:03:09 You know, he trusts Rupert Lowe
01:03:11 to do the right thing.
01:03:13 The other ones don't.
01:03:14 So I think that Rupert Lowe
01:03:15 can win over the Lib Dems
01:03:16 in a way that Farrar's just...
01:03:18 He's already won over John Cleese.
01:03:19 He's the rest of them now.
01:03:20 Probably won over Piddington too.
01:03:22 Yeah, the dominoes will fall.
01:03:24 Exactly.
01:03:24 so like i thought this was a really interesting sort of walk through the the current landscape
01:03:30 and how things are not actually because the the conservative media will have you believe
01:03:34 immigration not a problem um but that's them fudging the numbers in order to get back to
01:03:41 business as usual i'm glad you to get you i'm so glad you gave me that breakdown breakdown actually
01:03:46 because but i think people's problem with immigration isn't coming from the media
01:03:50 right it's coming from I'm walking around my town oh my god what's it look like this for right and
01:03:57 so as John Cleese said London isn't an English city very interesting that you know the Lib Dems
01:04:03 fundamentally are not a party of the left even though they look and sound like a party of the
01:04:07 left I don't think that they are and on the right it's potentially 58 percent of the electorate
01:04:13 there is to play for and actually I think it can be done
01:04:16 Thank you.