The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - Why Farage Keeps Losing

00:00:00.000 Hi folks, welcome back to another one of our political chats. I'm joined by Dan and we're

00:00:03.900 going to be talking about the drama on the right. Now, I actually don't like drama. I never want

00:00:09.660 drama. I'm the sort of person who prefers to build coalitions, but at the moment the right is

00:00:13.720 incredibly fractured and it doesn't look like there's any bloody hope of it getting back

00:00:17.000 together because of personalities involved. And I'm not even saying that people on either side

00:00:23.820 of the question aren't in some way justified but the cold hard facts are the left are currently

00:00:30.160 pulling it back together and the right is not so a split right is uh something that we could indulge

00:00:37.600 quite safely a year ago because the left was hopelessly split you had you had the labor party

00:00:43.160 the conservative party the lib dems the greens you know you had so many parties on the left

00:00:47.880 but it was it was it was perfectly acceptable to do but yeah it looks like they're getting the

00:00:54.540 band back together and it's got to focus minds on our side as well yeah before we begin islander

00:00:59.300 six is on sale it is amazing especially my essay about the scouring of the shire i'm very proud of

00:01:04.840 it um but there's a absolute bevy of amazing essays in there all counts in the most beautiful

00:01:10.460 aesthetics so link will be in the description shop.loses.com go and get it while you can

00:01:14.800 so let's begin on the polls the poll of polls because everyone everyone throws out like oh

00:01:20.920 here's a poll from whoever as if this is the most relevant and important thing i mean this looks

00:01:27.980 like a week behind as well it is a week behind that's the thing um but this is going to be i

00:01:34.600 think roughly updated to look something like this so this is you gov's latest poll from uh the second

00:01:41.740 and 3rd of august and you gov whether you like them or not have been a remarkably accurate pollster

00:01:47.420 normally their polls look exactly like the poll of polls uh and so okay great that's i think

00:01:54.540 probably the best way to go and this is the most recent uh data that we have as you say this is a

00:01:59.760 week behind waiting for this to update i was hoping it'd be updated i do want to caution

00:02:03.600 reform supporters because i think a lot of them have oversimplified how it works in electoral

00:02:08.580 politics that because they've currently got the biggest number as long as their number is 24 and

00:02:12.700 Labour is 23 that means they win that's not how it works in our parliamentary system because what

00:02:17.980 you will find and I can guarantee this at the next election the Guardian the Mirror and a whole bunch

00:02:23.380 of them will be publishing whole page spreads before the election which is if you live in this

00:02:27.460 seat you should vote tactically for this so actually Labour don't need the biggest number it helps if

00:02:33.560 have the biggest number but if it's as close as that 24 versus 23 and there's tactical voting

00:02:39.240 between the 23 the 12 and the 11 maybe even a bit of the 19 they can actually win while being behind

00:02:45.960 on the overall vote share but also um it's even without tactical voting uh there are clusters of

00:02:53.720 votes in the country which are not properly represented yes with just an overall national

00:02:58.600 share the lib dems being the best example they'll probably get about 50 seats somewhere between like

00:03:02.840 40 and 50 seats in the next election because they're focused they're heavily clustered in

00:03:07.080 the southwest of and and the right wing problem has always been the conservatives have this a lot

00:03:11.060 is you'd have these rural seats where they would stack up a majority of you know 23 000 votes but

00:03:17.240 the problem is you only need one of those in a majority the other 22 999 are wasted votes

00:03:23.700 so even if your vote share looks good if you're piling up huge majorities in places where you've

00:03:28.240 already won yes it doesn't help you so electoral politics have always favored the left uh yeah

00:03:34.280 well in first past the post in britain as well uh so anyway let's let's talk about the current

00:03:39.920 trends that we're looking at obviously we're seeing the burn and bounce here which is something

00:03:44.120 but not that much i mean if you go back well this is a week out of date it is a week out of date but

00:03:49.540 i think it will recede a bit but he's definitely going to get an uplift against starmer yeah but

00:03:54.980 i think that's already happened and i think the i'm i'm i actually trust you gov's polling more

00:04:00.220 than anyone else's because it just it tends to reflect the average on the political polar polls

00:04:05.300 um but if you go back you know before andy burnham labors are like 16 17 it's really really bad you

00:04:11.380 know like i think there was a bit where they got 16 on the average well maybe 17 wasn't that long

00:04:15.980 ago when you and i were looking at opinion polls showing labor getting four seats yeah yeah and so

00:04:21.900 it was really bad um but the the burn and bounce has happened and it's given them about four or

00:04:27.020 five points um okay that's that's not bad it's not not terrible it's it's not incredible though

00:04:33.460 because again if we if we go back uh just you know three years ago labor on 45 so this is

00:04:42.020 good for labor because it's not the complete catastrophic destruction of their party i think

00:04:49.080 a Labour apparatchik would have given their left arm for this a year ago well yeah absolutely and

00:04:53.800 yes Starmer you know Morgan McSweeney was probably desperate for numbers like this but it's bad

00:04:58.460 compared to where Labour was just before Starmer came in I mean Starmer was the party leader

00:05:04.540 before the election at this sort of point he was the party leader when we were at 44 percent

00:05:10.100 and then obviously it was downhill ever since but this this is a start right it's only been two

00:05:15.720 weeks this is a start and so burnham has the ability to claw back at least something now

00:05:20.980 another thing you'll notice here is that reform are also on the downswing and so it is very

00:05:25.960 tempting to say ah there must be some sort of correlation here but actually i'm not sure that

00:05:31.340 there is uh i think that i mean the conservatives have continued their slow creep back up to 20

00:05:37.300 they're slowly firming up yes again the conservatives didn't crater either but they

00:05:43.640 did lose a lot of support i mean you can see the uh where the the reform-minded conservatives

00:05:49.160 decided to leave the conservative party and join reform yes about here right um reform have also

00:05:55.500 been taking off of labor but that doesn't mean that labor are taking off reform now there was

00:06:01.020 a really great i'm gonna there we go a really great um interview with john curtis on the times

00:06:07.080 where he points out actually what's happening here is that uh labor is taking off the greens

00:06:15.200 and the lib dems so you can see the lib dems and the greens are both on downswing here

00:06:19.420 down to uh sort of 10 11 that was a point i made on this show months ago is that you know

00:06:24.980 inside the labor party there's two factions and one was saying there are two factions well yes

00:06:29.880 but there's there's two broad strains of thought one of which saying we've got to go after the

00:06:33.860 reform voters and the other one saying we've got to go after the left-wing voters the green voters

00:06:37.300 and i said obviously it's the left-wing voters and and burnham he has picked a course he's not

00:06:43.200 primarily going after reform voters he's going after green voters yes and and clearly it's

00:06:48.420 working and that's really interesting as well because starmer decided he wouldn't go after any

00:06:51.940 voters uh starmer decided he he was going to go after the civil service vote um which i mean don't

00:06:57.980 get me wrong we've got a huge civil service but it's not that big and they're all voting for him

00:07:01.480 anyway and they're all already on board so yeah exactly um so this the reform are losing to

00:07:07.940 restore who are holding on three percent four percent in the yougov poll and the conservative

00:07:12.960 minor resurgence up to 19 20 so that's i think who reform are losing to and labor are of course

00:07:22.140 as we said getting from the left not from the right and this is uh john curtis's opinion now

00:07:28.880 this is interesting because it puts reform in a bit of a bind because they seem to be tanking

00:07:34.880 because of these scandals associated with them now whether you like it on and just a quick thing

00:07:39.820 on this as well they've started calling nigel farage's what i suppose we would call corruption

00:07:45.820 scandal taking money without uh declaring it is some form of political corruption they started

00:07:51.500 calling it sleaze that always used to be reserved for sex scandals yes sexual impropriety yes it's

00:07:57.080 sleaze scandal but they're calling this a sleaze scandal and i think that nigel ferrari's really

00:08:01.240 should actually draw them up on this and say look you're deliberately giving the british public a

00:08:06.280 misinformed perception of what i've done here because i mean if he was spending five million

00:08:11.640 pounds on prostitutes or something maybe you could call it sleaze but as far as we know he's spending

00:08:15.940 on lamborghinis or ferraris or whatever was he said security apparently allegedly security as

00:08:21.260 well um or his houses or whatever it's a funny way the political language goes like now everything

00:08:26.080 in america the slightest scandal is referred to something gate yes but i guess we've just

00:08:31.840 reached the point where everything is now sleaze yeah um but the media isn't letting these go

00:08:36.580 because nigel has had no good answer to this i mean you'll remember that uh he's said that it

00:08:41.160 was for his defense he could spend however he liked it was a reward for brexit it was you know

00:08:46.820 he's got multiple different answers and until he can find a good way of deflecting this attack

00:08:52.360 then he doesn't really have anywhere the point is the press the press smell blood in the water and

00:08:58.340 they are they are going into frenzy mode because when whenever they they have a good sense for when

00:09:04.080 a politician can knock something out of the way and when a politician flounders they can also

00:09:09.320 sense that it's because we might actually get a scalp here and they can't help themselves when

00:09:13.220 they feel that yeah and i mean this is why he's called the by-election in clacton which itself

00:09:19.860 seemed like a clever move until it became evident that it wasn't it was really clever for about 12

00:09:25.440 hours until until restore led the way and said well we're not going to contest yeah we'll see a

00:09:31.940 kind of caricature of an election and so it leaves him uh fighting count bin face primarily and

00:09:37.900 there's and there's no way there's no way to win that no i mean he is going to win by a landslide

00:09:44.460 but there's no way to win it and look good because you either lose to a bin in which case you look

00:09:48.200 stupid or you win against a bin and i hate this characterization as well it's not winning against

00:09:52.860 a bin it's winning against a parody character well yes um but even then i mean it does show that

00:09:58.940 the the establishment's man in clacton uh is still going to get 20 of the vote so 20 of clacton is

00:10:05.880 prepared they hate nigel for us so much that they're prepared to vote for the comedy candidate

00:10:10.640 uh to spite him now obviously this is you know not nearly enough for nigel frost to lose but now

00:10:16.660 he has to spend the next couple of months campaigning in his own constituency and and being

00:10:22.200 out of the the national political fight yeah doing all of being very sidetracked or building a party

00:10:29.420 recruiting candidates doing all of those things so that he could win against a figurative bin

00:10:34.880 yeah he really hasn't done himself any favors here um so let's let's go back to the manchester

00:10:41.540 mayoral by-election which just happened it's on a 25 turnout so there were um two million

00:10:48.280 registered electors and only 500 000 of them turned out and of course labor got 250 000 of

00:10:55.500 those nearly um but as you can see reform only got 21 which is not great and restore britain got

00:11:02.900 8.7 which is better than the bloody conservatives yeah we've got 7.7 we'll come back to this in a

00:11:08.620 bit it wasn't that long ago when polling was showing that reform were going to win

00:11:12.520 manchester yeah yeah literally everything yeah people were absolutely sick of labor they were

00:11:19.720 happy to go for reform because reform weren't the tories and for some reason the luster has

00:11:26.600 disappeared same for makerfield well yes exactly gordon and denton makerfield and now manchester

00:11:32.320 they keep they keep being shown that they're going to win something and then when it actually

00:11:37.620 comes to it they don't and this is another one of those things okay you didn't inspire people to

00:11:44.000 out because the 25 turnout is basically the lowest turnout they've ever had for the manchester

00:11:48.680 election like normally they get about 30 35 25 i mean you know it's got the atmosphere of a

00:11:56.380 by-election because andy burnham of course ended up calling this because he won in makerfield and

00:12:00.780 therefore he gives up the mayoral position which just hands it off to another labor person um

00:12:06.140 but again it's one of those things like it's yet another by-election failure and when you add that

00:12:12.100 to the the local elections where reform underperformed and you start to get a pattern of

00:12:18.180 these people are not actually winners right i mean it's it's been a worrying while since they've

00:12:24.880 actually had a win yes and was it sarah pochin i think was the last proper win they had yes so

00:12:30.880 yeah she only won by like a couple of percentage points right yeah it was on a knife edge with

00:12:35.180 poaching in runcorn but i mean if if if they just maintain that momentum and the polling had held

00:12:40.960 up i mean they they should have won gordon and denton they should have won makerfield yeah

00:12:45.200 they should have won this in particular gordon and denton they should have won i mean 30 percent

00:12:50.040 muslim going to the greens okay but why weren't you converting all of those white working like

00:12:54.580 66 percent are still white working class english and half of them voted for labor why was that the

00:13:00.080 case you know you should have been out there and that was before andy burnham you know remember

00:13:04.040 starmer prevented andy burnham from running yeah that would have been an idea of starmer's

00:13:08.200 popularity as well so there's absolutely everyone that one is actually really inexcusable and they

00:13:13.140 still lost something like 9 000 votes to which would have been the winning ticket and they can't

00:13:18.760 blame restore for that one because restore weren't in it nope so it's it's one of those things where

00:13:24.300 and i'm not trying to be i'm not trying to gloat or anything like that this this is a genuine

00:13:30.460 in problem for reform why are you not making headway for example the turnout being so low

00:13:36.200 why didn't because i mean birmingham is still about 40 white british manchester uh sorry

00:13:42.840 manchester uh it's manchester's probably slightly higher white british actually um why why didn't

00:13:48.680 those people decide right we are going to come out for reform i mean who's sean astley do you

00:13:53.980 know anything about that candidate uh no no neither do i and i pay attention to politics a lot

00:14:00.620 and yet for some reason that name never went anywhere like i don't know anything about bev

00:14:05.680 craig either so like i said i'm not trying to gloat or anything this is a genuine and existential

00:14:12.740 problem for reform yes if you can't actually beat the labor party or the greens what are we doing

00:14:19.700 right what is what is the point of this why are you failing i mean this was why we on the right

00:14:25.120 collectively destroyed the conservative party because you know they they betrayed us and you

00:14:29.980 know we we need a vehicle yes and it's not looking like reformer delivering well let's let's talk

00:14:36.680 about the vehicle shall we um because reform began as quite a big tent right it actually was

00:14:44.960 a fairly big tent big tents win elections and it is exactly true that big tents win elections

00:14:50.800 and following in the pattern of Keir Starmer kicking out his left Nigel Farage decided he

00:14:57.520 would kick out his right because remember they made false allegations in his Rupert Lowe which

00:15:02.380 they have since doubled down on in public well there was that rare moment where where Farage

00:15:09.380 went up on stage and basically admitted it was because yeah we'll get to that in a second okay

00:15:13.240 but the the point being is that the police were like yeah no we've considered a number of witness

00:15:19.260 statements there's insufficient evidence there's nothing there's nothing here there's quite a lot

00:15:22.800 of harassment of rupert like that went on before they came to that yeah realization that there's

00:15:26.940 nothing going on here yeah so uh this is there's nothing here right now they have continued making

00:15:34.660 this allegation and in fact rahim kasan made this allegation again uh yesterday uh rupert logo

00:15:41.300 kicked out because he was abusive towards stuff and kept veering into other people's policy lanes

00:15:45.520 the party was working on a serious deportation policy and he just kept lobbing bombs unsustainable

00:15:50.980 um okay but we know that that's not why he got kicked out i mean we'll just refresh everyone's

00:15:56.120 memory because farage told us you know people think oh farage has done it we'll just set a

00:16:00.280 party up it'll be marvelous we'll sweep the next election it just it just isn't as easy as that

00:16:05.200 now does he have a profile on x yes he does is elon going to support him probably but you see

00:16:10.940 When he stood up and said that we've got to consider the mass deportation of entire communities, including those born in the United Kingdom, that just moves way beyond the point of reasonableness, of decency, of morality.

00:16:31.180 And that was the moment at which I realised we just had to get rid of him and get rid of him as quickly as we could.

00:16:36.680 and I think in terms of the way we dealt with that

00:16:39.020 we were probably more brutal

00:16:40.620 than the other parties but you know what

00:16:42.940 that's the way it's going to be. Thank you.

00:16:46.200 I mean

00:16:46.520 by brutal you made up

00:16:48.800 malicious charges against him with the

00:16:51.040 intention of getting him put in jail that he

00:16:52.980 then had to be investigated by the police, have his house

00:16:55.060 raided, had his guns seized

00:16:56.360 spend countless hours

00:16:58.980 with his barrister because

00:17:00.960 he said that there needed to be mass deportations

00:17:03.580 and when Farage

00:17:05.120 says that was the moment we realized that we couldn't have him anymore that's also the the

00:17:10.420 moment where about a quarter of reform said yeah we can't stay in reform anymore that's correct um

00:17:15.940 so exactly as you say a very large portion of the reform base and of voters this is

00:17:23.920 took that as a signal that nigel farage is simply not going to go to the right now in the same way

00:17:30.700 that when jeremy corbyn was kicked out of labor that was a huge signal to the base in labor the

00:17:35.980 left wing base in labor that oh no keir starmer is not our guy he's not going to go to the left

00:17:40.480 we will find somewhere else well the mistake that both of them are making there is is is

00:17:45.460 as we know we said many times nigel will throw out anyone who's one inch to his right

00:17:50.680 now that's fine if he is the most right-wing person in reform bar two or three people because

00:17:59.620 kicking out your right-wing flank doesn't actually lose many people yeah if he was kicking out nick

00:18:03.660 griffin yes sure it wouldn't be that big a deal but i think i think farage misunderstood um where

00:18:10.380 he is in in right-wing thought he's not the most right-wing man in britain i think he's not more

00:18:15.060 right-wing than his own voters i think no you've made this point many times his voters think he's

00:18:20.120 going to put immigrants into a bloody blender and puree them well i mean as we come on to talk about

00:18:24.760 rupert's deal there's nothing in there that his voters don't think he's already signed up to yeah

00:18:28.720 in fact and starmer did the same thing he thought that he was the most left-wing person in the

00:18:32.940 labor party and it turns out actually no there's a vast amount more left to him and they all went

00:18:37.520 off and formed the green party yeah there's a zach polanski out there yeah um so yeah let's let's

00:18:42.040 let's talk about um rupert lowe's deal right so rupert open up this 12-minute video saying look

00:18:47.760 nigel i realize we've had our disagreements um but for the sake of the country we should work

00:18:54.320 together now there's a lot to be said about this um and we'll get into the actual content of it

00:19:00.940 shortly um but this was widely perceived by reform supporters as being a trap as in the

00:19:09.020 actual requirements that rupert lois set out for his cooperation here are too hard edge they're

00:19:17.960 too hardline they're too um right wing for nigel frost countenance and god forbid an actual right

00:19:24.940 wing policy well well yeah that's that i mean kind of that what do you think we are a right

00:19:32.340 wing party well yeah that's exactly what the objections have been right yes they're they're

00:19:38.280 they're couched in such a way that they are too hardline too right wing for nigel farage to accept

00:19:43.380 and everyone knows this in advance because of course he said when he's kicking him out well

00:19:48.120 he he he's saying kick out people who are complicit with the rape gangs even if they

00:19:53.220 themselves weren't personally rapists and that's just beyond morality beyond decent yeah we've got

00:19:57.940 to keep the family of rapists yeah and that gives the rapists themselves a claim to stay in the

00:20:03.540 country because of course their families oh yeah they've got they've got a right to family life so

00:20:07.000 we can't get rid of them either exactly so so basically nigel farage has arrived at the same

00:20:12.660 point as andy burnham before you go on to talk about what's in the list of requests can i can

00:20:18.300 i just point out what is not in there yeah because a lot of reform voters or commentators

00:20:23.320 misunderstood this at no point does rupert lowe say i want a job i want a position i want to be

00:20:30.860 chancellor foreign secretary he doesn't say i want positions for any of my team he's saying

00:20:36.260 there's none of that in there and a lot of reform supporters think that's what he said he didn't say

00:20:41.320 any of that what he said was um you can have it all you can have the whole government

00:20:46.960 i just want these five things yes and this is this is what it very similar to nigel standing

00:20:54.600 down in 2019 with the brexit party for boris johnson right he was on it was on the assumption

00:20:59.480 that we do brexit you give me brexit you can have it all yes of course boris the perennial

00:21:06.340 backstabber that he is betrayed us on that and then he betrayed us on immigration and betrayed

00:21:10.960 this on just anything else you can think of boris doing but nigel wasn't really to know that in

00:21:16.420 advance right i mean don't get me wrong maybe you could have said but isn't boris a congenital wet

00:21:21.480 lib basically a liberal democrat wearing human skin and isn't it predictable that he's going to

00:21:29.820 be a wet lib when he's a prime minister there's also a timing issue around and it's questionable

00:21:36.900 I've heard people, insiders from both sides, tell me,

00:21:39.520 they don't necessarily think that Farage was conned.

00:21:44.100 But what happened is Farage's people agreed it, Boris agreed it,

00:21:48.400 and then Boris went to the wider shareholders, the party chairmen,

00:21:52.700 the rest of the people in the Tory party,

00:21:54.780 and they threw their toys out the pram and said,

00:21:57.160 never are we going to do this deal.

00:21:59.300 But Farage had already announced he was standing down,

00:22:02.120 and then Boris was supposed to go up and say,

00:22:04.480 and we're going to give them you know however many seats but but by then there had already

00:22:09.880 been an internal toy party rebellion and so they actually just said yeah we're just going to take

00:22:14.140 it all so so farage got completely outplayed on that one and ended up standing down entirely as

00:22:19.320 opposed to a pact which he was actually hoping for yeah uh and so as you say this is basically

00:22:24.780 what rupert lowe is offering nigel farage um on the assumption i suppose that nigel farage is

00:22:29.300 more trustworthy than boris johnson i mean maybe yeah i mean it so because he doesn't lay out what

00:22:38.100 it would i mean he says cooperation it's not a merger it's corporation well i mean restore sent

00:22:42.480 an email around saying obviously this doesn't mean a merger yes this means an electoral pact

00:22:47.900 so that that could mean a number of things and it could be um you know these are our policy positions

00:22:54.220 if you do it exactly like this then maybe we stand down entirely yeah but it could also be

00:23:00.060 look if you give us most of this we stand down in whatever percentage of seats

00:23:04.460 yeah now i actually i don't let's put this

00:23:11.920 i'm not sure that could ever have worked right so uh a pact an electoral pact between

00:23:19.620 say farage and boris johnson actually makes sense right because farage can win in constituencies

00:23:26.180 where the conservatives have no penetration right if you look at the northern constituencies a lot

00:23:30.580 of northern voters are patriots and so they're happy to vote for reform but they have been their

00:23:37.340 entire lives conditioned to despise the tories yes so these people are are in places where the

00:23:43.280 tories basically have no real penetration especially after boris now right so there's

00:23:48.780 a lot of northern voters who definitely i mean they were they were prepared to take a risk with

00:23:53.580 boris but even then there were a lot of places that didn't you know a lot of places that could

00:23:58.220 just never ever bring themselves to vote tory yeah under any circumstance could potentially

00:24:02.580 have voted for nigel farage um and so saying farage saying to the tories look i've got a

00:24:07.740 constituency of voters you will never have access to that i can help utilize in getting you to your

00:24:14.840 destination you can say you can say to the toys you're never going to win in gorton and denton

00:24:18.820 so let me lose it for you basically basically yeah that's basically correct yeah that's or

00:24:26.340 manchester or makeover anyway yes the point is yes that's completely true right um but

00:24:33.180 so the the reform have got a constituency that the conservatives can never reach

00:24:38.420 but conversely um that while that's true for restore and we'll come back to that in a bit

00:24:44.920 it it's not necessarily that they're in different locations it's it's not clear whether there is

00:24:51.920 rate overlap between restore and reform or whether there's points of difference are there are there

00:24:58.420 bits where they just were i mean to be fair though nigel froge does have a very large personal

00:25:03.680 unfavorability rating yes and so maybe i mean you'd have to do a bit of work on it but where

00:25:10.200 are those places where they just can't stand farage in which case though you could do a pact

00:25:14.780 yeah uh well exactly right so it's it's not as clear that such a thing would be um as self-evident

00:25:22.800 and useful as it would be between reform and conservatives however we'll leave that for now

00:25:29.140 and we'll come back to in a bit because i do have some more information on it so anyway what what

00:25:33.460 does Rupert Lowe offer? Well, he's got five points that he wants reform to commit to. The first being

00:25:40.120 mass deportation of illegal immigrants, including women and children. Tougher rules on legal

00:25:45.480 immigration, such as a ban on halal and kosher slaughter, the ban on the burqa, cousin marriage

00:25:51.200 and sharia courts. He wants a referendum on the death penalty. He wants welfare cuts to fund

00:25:56.760 self-sufficiency and the exclusion of former Tory ministers from any future cabinet.

00:26:04.480 Now, going through those, the first one, the deportation of illegals, including women and

00:26:09.060 children, Farage could probably agree to this. Now, he's got a bit of a soppy wet side where

00:26:14.800 he's just like, oh, I don't know, I'm a bit squeamish about deporting even women and children.

00:26:18.460 But I think you could probably get him over the line on that, right?

00:26:21.840 yeah i mean the the point one a lot of people would say that's already reform policy

00:26:29.740 where it goes further is the deportations program yeah which farage has explicitly ruled out so

00:26:37.920 but there's a bit of ground to close there but it's not utterly impossible but i i think that

00:26:43.620 reform have been in the last year or so bullied into the position of it's very ambiguous the way

00:26:50.440 i would put it is um zaya yusuf absolutely wants to do master deportations um other members you

00:26:58.360 know but the danny kruegers absolutely do not and it's and we're unclear currently where faraj

00:27:04.120 himself stands on it because he's kind of vacillating the last time we got a definitive

00:27:08.140 out of him it was stephen edgerton where he's saying it's literally impossible to do deportations

00:27:12.360 won't happen you know violently shaking his head but the ground has been since clear maybe he's

00:27:17.760 maybe he's moved on that yeah well well this is the way that faraz always works he's never at the

00:27:22.000 crest of the wave he always waits for the ground to be cleared so it's safe to move into yes at

00:27:26.200 the moment the ground has been cleared on just deporting every goddamn illegal right there's

00:27:31.080 just no justification to have any of them in the country um regardless of who they are what they're

00:27:35.820 so maybe we can agree on point one borders so i i think but it requires a bit of background yeah

00:27:41.140 exactly but he can definitely be pushed into that position yes right whether he'll actually do it

00:27:45.800 if he became the prime minister an entirely different question but at least verbally

00:27:50.580 rhetorically he can be pushed into that position yes so that's something give you that the next

00:27:55.340 one being tougher rules on legal migration maybe you could get that you know maybe he's probably

00:27:59.740 said an australian point style system at some point in the past i think i think this is the

00:28:03.620 one they're most divergent on well it's it's not that in and of itself it's the ban on halal and

00:28:08.980 kosher slaughter the burqa cousin marriage and sharia courts i mean maybe he'd ban the burqa

00:28:14.780 cousin marriage and charity courts right they're they're fairly from a kind of um he's not bad in

00:28:19.540 kosher though from a he's absolutely not from a from a british value perspective uh you know the

00:28:25.080 burqa cousin marriage and charity courts were all against british values okay nigel frosh could make

00:28:28.600 that argument yes and he could he could end up moving on that but there's potential ground there

00:28:33.300 in the maybe labeling yeah maybe you know and anything that's kosher or hello has to be clearly

00:28:40.340 labeled shops that do only that need to be clearly signposted that kind of stuff yeah quite possibly

00:28:45.560 i mean a lot of them do signpost halal as an advert to muslims though yeah so this is halal

00:28:51.740 meeting a little bit a little bit more explicit yeah i mean the broader point on this one so to

00:28:56.540 be fair with all of these as we're going through them some of them rupert used terms like offer

00:29:02.820 yes and other times he used terms like must in full red line stuff like that and for these first

00:29:10.300 to he was using a lot of that that language must full red lines things like that but even within

00:29:16.100 that there's a lot of wiggle room as to okay well how actually does it work yeah i mean this isn't

00:29:21.000 a negotiation this is a proposal yes so he's certainly putting his strongest foot forward

00:29:25.480 but what i'm saying is even though there appears to be a lot of difference between them and it does

00:29:32.460 at a minimum it does require reform to be at the absolute bravest end of everything they flirted

00:29:38.600 with yeah it's not an insurmountable gap no and i'm sure that reform uh restore and rupert would

00:29:45.300 be able to compromise on some of it right as it is even though you you say look i want these things

00:29:50.980 that doesn't mean you're not going to compromise yeah like okay we won't ban kosher but everything

00:29:54.940 is clearly labeled all that kind of stuff that you might you might bridge that yeah um one one

00:29:59.500 interesting point on the uh migration section is uh rupert low using the term uh demographic

00:30:05.720 security yeah they don't like that no they don't i i believe i'm the person who came up with that

00:30:10.480 on andrew gold's podcast um when talking to him after he did his steve law's interview yes not

00:30:15.460 unreasonable for us to want demographic security and i think the term has uh stuck because i think

00:30:19.900 it does genuinely describe something that we're entitled to right um and again but again farage

00:30:25.460 has been in the past i will say very clearly against that he he's been explicitly asked a

00:30:31.460 number of times do you care if if if britain is no longer a white country in the future and he and

00:30:37.400 his answer has been an emphatic no and richard tice said well i'll be long gone yeah so yeah it

00:30:43.140 doesn't matter because i'll be dead by then so you know i i will admit that tonally under zaya

00:30:49.120 they have been shifting that way but i mean it it's it's always what rupert is asking is go

00:30:57.100 right to the edge of everything you flirted with i.e what you're saying is be as brave as you can

00:31:02.740 be yeah and it's hard to imagine them doing it so the the third point being a referendum on the

00:31:08.880 death penalty i honestly think farage is too wimpy to try and countenance this i mean on one

00:31:14.780 hand this is the easy one because a referendum doesn't makes it out of your hands yeah and it

00:31:19.500 doesn't preclude farage from campaigning on the other side absolutely um it'd be a bit strange

00:31:24.080 if he did but then david cameron did the same with brexit yeah so um so you you might think

00:31:28.860 this one is easy i suspect i suspect for rupert again this one is not an emphatic red line i mean

00:31:35.100 yeah i imagine it's the sort of thing that can percolate in the background and we just keep

00:31:39.260 putting the pressure on until eventually i mean nobody on the right thinks that rudel axel cabana

00:31:43.960 could you know should be alive axel rudica axel rudica cabana yeah um but there is some concerns

00:31:50.060 on the right okay well what if i start getting executed for tweets um which in any other country

00:31:54.840 would sound absurd but perhaps not britain uh then obviously welfare cuts to the fund's

00:32:00.060 self-sufficiency farage i don't doubt could agree to this uh and the weird four is all

00:32:05.760 standard right-wing thought yeah no no yeah no one on the right four is easy yeah um but the

00:32:12.120 the fifth and final one which was farage's absolute red line was the exclusion of former

00:32:17.940 tory ministers from any future cabinet yeah again to be fair i'm i've got my deal making

00:32:25.320 you can see you can see i used to make deals with living as a venture capitalist

00:32:28.480 to be fair i'm i was very careful on the wording here um he doesn't name names he doesn't the

00:32:35.900 qualifier is failed former tory ministers so we could decide that because jenrik and suella

00:32:45.400 quit their posts in protests that removes the qualifier failed jenrik was kicked out of the

00:32:53.160 conservative party uh yeah fair point but they are still the point is okay smooth the work yeah

00:32:58.280 the the argument i suppose you could make is well they are mps you could you could make the argument

00:33:02.900 that no more tories but we give a well no you could make you could draw a distinction uh so

00:33:08.060 for example nadine dorries nadine zahawi are failed oh yeah obviously they go and nobody wants

00:33:13.240 them anyway but braveman and jenrik are mps so of course they've succeeded right so you could make

00:33:17.280 that argument yes um but i i was surprised that this was his red line anyway so i mean as we've

00:33:22.660 said uh it's been interesting how the term demographic security has been dropped from

00:33:27.480 the discourse on this so i noticed that a whole bunch of reform influencers have been talking

00:33:32.480 about this they always either omit demographic security entirely or they rename it to something

00:33:38.520 else that sounds unreasonable like kicking out islam or something uh and that is frankly the

00:33:45.480 key point of all of british because they know they're weak there yeah and and there's no

00:33:50.540 particular reason they have to be weak there because the polling's all been done we know

00:33:54.140 that half the country is like look we have to do something about getting rid of millions

00:33:57.140 right that's half the country thinks that it's like why are and everyone thinks these people

00:34:01.660 are illegal as well like they're like god there are a lot of illegals around saying no i've got

00:34:05.360 some bad news for you so that that was my first take on this list these five points is i think

00:34:11.600 like 99 of reform voters think that's what he's everything on those five points is existing reform

00:34:18.960 policy and and actually there were a whole bunch of not the big accounts because they know what's

00:34:23.660 going on but the smaller accounts a bunch of them are like looking at this and saying

00:34:27.260 well that's an easy deal yeah we're doing all of this anyway yeah but and and that's why there is

00:34:33.460 a difference between reform and restore is because actually we know that they're not signed up to

00:34:37.840 demographic security they're not going to do all of this stuff they're not they're not signed up

00:34:41.320 to almost any of it really and they like you say they flirted close to bits of it the the welfare

00:34:48.100 cuts are probably the most guaranteed thing on that right um even then they guaranteed the triple

00:34:53.740 lock yeah yeah because of course yeah a huge percentage of reforms voter base are pensioners

00:34:59.680 and very few young people so worth worth remembering that Nigel Farage hasn't always

00:35:05.520 had a red line on Tories being in his future cabinet right in fact it used to be in 2024

00:35:10.640 that he ruled out having Tories in his party calling them quote poison well we all know what

00:35:16.860 he was saying about Jenrick a few weeks before he came on board yeah and for some reason he

00:35:21.360 decided no I'm going to take Jenrick which was weird I mean Jenrick can swell up I can get my

00:35:26.200 head around it was it was the other gone oh the deems are yeah doris why do you want these people

00:35:34.280 um because i get former former tory mps anyway um so farage actually replied to this with a

00:35:41.520 statement initially right saying that the next election will be an existential fight to save

00:35:45.740 the country we love a mission i've been fighting for over 30 years it's like okay well at least

00:35:50.380 we agree that the situation is dire the hour is late and there is something that needs to be done

00:35:56.380 about this yes um but you're going to read this all out because i've read it several times and

00:36:00.520 i haven't got the faintest clue what he's actually saying i'm not going to read it all right but he

00:36:05.300 is rather mealy mouthed with this i haven't got a clue what you're saying what what's the action

00:36:10.840 here he said i don't know there is there is no particular action it seems to be a way to try and

00:36:17.060 essentially um diffuse the strength of rupert lowe's i i think i think it's a way of saying

00:36:24.560 i've responded without having committed yourself to anything at all or necessarily made any points

00:36:30.360 agreed but there are some important points in here right he says that i understand reform

00:36:33.520 uk will need the support of people from other parties as well as millions who have never voted

00:36:38.280 before that is the broad coalition i'm building okay good i'm glad you accept that the actually

00:36:43.940 the british right needs to be a broad tent how have you done anything to build a broad coalition

00:36:49.780 well he's created parties to the right of him by kicking out everybody who's to the right of him

00:36:53.900 that seems to be building a narrower coalition yes actually that's a fair point that seems to be

00:36:57.780 um making sure that actually anyone who like you say is a day early in a step to the right to

00:37:03.480 farage is not included because it might be uncomfortable when he's next interviewed by

00:37:08.740 beth rigby who says but but what about this person who said on social media i figured out

00:37:13.460 how he's building a broad coalition by taking any Tory who's given up on the Tories into reform

00:37:19.780 and saving them saving the rest of us from them yes uh yeah so he says over the last 18 months

00:37:25.000 I've demonstrated that our movement will always be open to anyone who shares our commitment

00:37:28.680 to restoring Britain's borders rebuilding our economy renewing our democracy and putting the

00:37:33.660 British people first notice he doesn't say demographic security well I believed in all

00:37:36.940 of that and you kicked me out as well it wasn't just it wasn't just Rupert I mean there were

00:37:41.440 quite a lot of people who've been kicked out of reform yeah as well but the point is you guys are

00:37:46.540 just uh you know the most from our perspective the most notables of a giant pile of people oh yeah

00:37:51.900 who have been ejected from reform yeah for wanting all of those things the vast majority you've never

00:37:57.380 heard of they just received an email one day saying you're out yeah absolutely i mean steve

00:38:01.580 laws was a candidate for them yeah back in 24 25 i can't remember he was an mep wasn't he no he

00:38:07.540 wasn't mp but he was a candidate for them uh not steven wolf steve laws uh but the point is

00:38:13.740 you you haven't done this right this is always been the case and my previous history in politics

00:38:20.480 has shown i'm always prepared to put my country before my party as i did in 2019 but i will never

00:38:24.780 turn my back on my team now he said this multiple times it's like well there are a lot of people

00:38:30.080 you stabbed in the back and the very lots and but the most important one being rupert low the fact

00:38:36.680 that you're even having this dialogue with someone you'd previously stabbed in the back

00:38:40.460 shows that you will turn your back on you i mean that that was an extraordinary thing and i mean

00:38:45.120 i'll just quickly add on the discussion that carl and i've just had there you know if if you're i

00:38:49.580 don't know you know not familiar with the british senior american or whatever whatever you will find

00:38:54.940 this extraordinary to believe but it's it's genuinely true reformers the main right-wing

00:39:00.520 party in this country hire hope not hate which is a communist agitator um not only are they

00:39:08.100 communist agitator doxing organization they're actually um one of their former directors is now

00:39:15.420 chief of staff to the labor party andy burnham's right and reform use hope not hate this communist

00:39:22.980 agitators to vet their candidates so i want to correct you on that uh this this information

00:39:28.440 came from gwayne tower and it wasn't that reform did this it was their ukip when nigel farage was

00:39:34.300 in charge of ukip they did it in ukip now i don't know if they still do it but the point is they

00:39:39.420 used to do it right it is gwayne tower and nigel farage there's a continuum of the parties that

00:39:44.460 they have been in together it was ukip then it was the brexit party now it's reform they're keeping

00:39:49.260 quiet about whether this is still a method i don't know hang on no no it is the case it is

00:39:53.840 the case because nigel farage no richard tice got asked about this on tv and he said why wouldn't

00:40:01.180 we let them vet ah no he said he he's letting the media vet his candidates that wasn't hope not hate

00:40:07.280 but there's no particular difference between the media and hope not hate in the principles that

00:40:12.480 they espouse yes and the media of course are often informed by some hit piece from hope not hate

00:40:16.920 well and to give you one concrete example bo of the show he was kicked out because of a hope not

00:40:22.560 hate piece yes so it's it's not that they don't allow hope not hate to browbeat them all the time

00:40:28.360 they do but it's not directly hiring them right it's just they're not they're not paying them

00:40:33.660 no they're just letting them do it for free yes um anyway so he he posted this and then he

00:40:39.860 released a proposal to uh create fortress britain or fortress europe i can't know what it was

00:40:45.280 and oh sorry actually before we go on to that um this it's important to remember nigel farage

00:40:51.140 actually provoked this conversation so this is the video he put out after the makefield by-election

00:40:56.280 where he goes it that wasn't a great result don't know why we lost restore voters what do you want

00:41:01.400 it's only a few seconds if you go to 38 seconds you've got it memorized yes

00:41:06.280 but it's only a few seconds after after 38 uh yeah but i would say this there's a couple of

00:41:14.180 thousand voters there who would normally have gone out and voted reform that voted restore

00:41:18.980 and i would say directly to them what do you want there you go there we go right so what do you we

00:41:24.880 are the challenger party to the right he says it's like okay well i mean one i guess the very

00:41:29.740 minimum we want rupert lowe and all of our guys included in the big tent right well that mind you

00:41:36.620 that's not what rupert asked for he didn't it's not what he asked for no he just he just asked

00:41:40.600 for five principles he asked the borders demographics death penalty self-sufficiency

00:41:44.480 political trust yes and and don't get me wrong this these are all things that we want but if

00:41:49.820 you want our votes you're going to have to include us in the big tent by saying no these are the five

00:41:55.280 things that i mean it again it's not even all of these five things that people wouldn't compromise

00:41:59.880 on it's primarily demographic security yes we need to know that our grandchildren will not be a hated

00:42:05.600 minority in our ancestral homeland if you can't commit to that nigel you will not get my vote

00:42:11.880 ever under any circumstance

00:42:13.880 even if I am in a constituency

00:42:16.260 where it's a hopeless cause

00:42:17.740 and Restore could never win

00:42:19.540 and Reformer like neck and neck with Labour

00:42:21.820 I will not vote for you

00:42:23.500 if you cannot guarantee that

00:42:25.140 I think I should explain the logic of that

00:42:27.320 to any Reform people watching

00:42:28.640 because they do get very hung up on

00:42:31.380 well we've got the biggest number in the polls

00:42:32.980 and therefore everybody should just bail in and follow us

00:42:34.920 well I should vote Labour on that bloody ground

00:42:36.860 yeah let me explain it clearly

00:42:38.620 to Reformers listening

00:42:41.880 If we don't have demographic security, it is the absolute key thing for us, then on our current track, we will become a minority in our own country in 2063.

00:42:52.500 Yes.

00:42:53.100 And if reform come in but don't address demographic security, but they do do a bit of tightening at the border, instead of becoming a minority in our own country in 2063, it moves to 2068.

00:43:05.180 So we buy ourselves five years.

00:43:07.780 now for me i suppose getting those extra five years is better than nothing but it's pretty

00:43:14.000 close to nothing yeah yeah great so you know you you can't get me over the line by saying that

00:43:22.560 we're ahead in the polls you should vote for any party that describes itself as normally right wing

00:43:27.020 yes because for me keeping my country is it's it's not a negotiable factor it's the only thing

00:43:33.740 matters yes and the thing is as well if you're saying look we are the thing that is essentially

00:43:39.260 in the way of you keeping your country yes what you say is you need to start attacking us as hard

00:43:44.600 as you can right because we are gonna we're gonna sit here and say no we're not gonna ensure that

00:43:50.380 your grandchildren your children and grandchildren are the demographic majority in their own country

00:43:54.980 then it's like okay well you're my primary enemy because you're closest to me the the the great

00:43:59.680 threat is is that reform win on a very soft set of proposals in 2029 everybody thinks the country's

00:44:08.740 saved i don't need to pay attention to this is exactly what happened after brexit yes exactly

00:44:13.360 yes it is exactly what happened interest in immigration just cratered and then everyone's

00:44:18.320 like what the hell is going on with immigration yes and then basically we get closer to 2063

00:44:23.100 and we realize it's too late we can't do anything about it now because we took our eye off the ball

00:44:28.160 because we thought we had solved the problem but we hadn't that is why there's i know so many of

00:44:33.500 you can't get this but that is why there was a there was a split between reform and restore

00:44:37.800 because demographic security is the key bit and you don't have it and what's interesting i didn't

00:44:42.960 want to have to bring this up but a lot of the reform talking heads are not ethnically british

00:44:50.080 i had noticed now i'm not a hardliner on that yes right but i can't help but wonder

00:44:57.640 if that feeling of separation

00:45:00.900 is what bothers them

00:45:03.200 about the concept of demographic security.

00:45:05.820 Because, I mean, a lot of these people

00:45:06.880 have been born and raised in England.

00:45:08.800 Yes.

00:45:09.280 And in England, given their age,

00:45:11.360 where it was 95% English, right?

00:45:14.400 No one was saying we have to kick out minorities.

00:45:16.220 No one was saying we have to persecute minorities

00:45:17.460 or anything like that.

00:45:18.080 It's a depravant of rights.

00:45:19.000 Well, to be fair, even Rupert Lowe isn't saying that.

00:45:20.920 No, Rupert...

00:45:21.400 Nobody's saying that, right?

00:45:22.420 Well, I suppose there are probably some radical Twitty...

00:45:24.980 Steve Law saying it, but yeah.

00:45:26.200 But the point is,

00:45:27.260 like nobody's saying that what we want is to return to the demographic situation

00:45:31.320 that you you experienced when you were young yes you weren't being persecuted you weren't this

00:45:36.900 you know you're you're a patriot you like the country but this number matters right we're

00:45:42.820 currently at about 70 that's unacceptable i mean on the strength of this that what we're proposing

00:45:47.900 is that the proportion of white british people in britain is at least 51 it's not a big ask

00:45:54.780 i mean even then that's terrible i know but i want it but that 90 at least yeah i know but but

00:46:00.800 but that is it is even now even now even everything with rupert is it is actually quite

00:46:07.580 gentle it's not yeah marching everybody with a little bit of melanin onto a ferry and and it's

00:46:14.000 not that yeah but but i i i think it has to be about 90 you should have a security so obviously

00:46:20.860 70 percent were deeply insecure about these things so anyway nigel uh released his uh plan

00:46:26.060 to stop the small boats not really the issue right the small boat crossing is about 200 000 in total

00:46:32.140 insufferable we are paying for them to live in rented housing or wherever else because they've

00:46:37.540 been kicked out of the hotels now this does need to be addressed but it doesn't actually move the

00:46:42.280 dial because the stock of immigrants is so high that even if you even if you stop the immigration

00:46:47.040 we're just going to be replaced anyway but slower yeah because i mean remember kirsten was cheering

00:46:51.640 that he got immigration down to 850 000 last year i mean that's good when you're comparing

00:46:57.900 yourself against boris which is 1.5 million yes but that's still 850 000 that's still more than

00:47:03.680 four times the number of people who cross the channel yes yes we legally let in and that that's

00:47:09.680 the entire number of people who cross the channel but it's the safe edgy concern right for immigration

00:47:16.480 yes oh we're going to stop the boats because they're breaking in illegally it's like i don't

00:47:20.640 really care yeah i care that there are millions and millions we're going to stop the aeroplanes

00:47:25.460 exactly that's the problem yeah it's the aeroplanes that's the problem and so they can

00:47:29.140 claim oh look we're hard on immigration because we're we're doing something about the boats it's

00:47:33.580 like okay but that's not you being hard on immigration no rupert lowe is right say no look

00:47:38.040 the numbers coming in legally have to stop we have to have demographic security obviously the

00:47:43.660 boats have to stop but that's a much smaller issue but nobody wanted to talk about this right what

00:47:48.940 they wanted to talk about is rupert lowe's proposal to nigel farage so this kept coming up in the uh

00:47:54.700 q a and this is um one response that nigel farage gave i don't know if we play the whole thing but

00:47:59.520 it's quite interesting on the rupert lowe stuff well my understanding is that he had a bit of a

00:48:04.640 fallout last week with the conservatives who you know he'd been working he had been working quite

00:48:09.320 closely with for some time.

00:48:11.360 He said that he had a deal

00:48:13.540 with the Conservatives, and Kevin Baden-Ock

00:48:15.500 said they had an arrangement.

00:48:17.200 I don't know what that was. My understanding is there

00:48:19.280 was a bit of a fallout.

00:48:21.120 If you want to do a political

00:48:23.240 deal with somebody, you

00:48:25.320 would contact them privately

00:48:26.580 and not do a 12-minute video.

00:48:29.320 That said,

00:48:30.760 I

00:48:32.560 did actually reach out back

00:48:35.240 yesterday to him. I did say,

00:48:37.260 look, should we have a call? I haven't heard

00:48:39.300 back yet, so I don't know

00:48:41.360 what the sincerity of this is.

00:48:45.540 But

00:48:45.940 it seemed to me that he

00:48:49.280 was sort of, more than anything, perhaps

00:48:51.360 putting out this gesture

00:48:52.920 saying, look, I'm the good guy, Nigel's

00:48:55.320 the bad guy. Well, that's not the case.

00:48:57.140 If you look at my history, you know,

00:48:59.420 in politics over the last few years,

00:49:01.500 I am prepared to do things and make

00:49:03.120 sacrifices if I believe it's of a

00:49:05.220 national interest. I certainly did that

00:49:07.080 in 2019, and I would do whatever I could for us to have a sane centre-right alliance that

00:49:14.080 beat Labour at the next general election. But I don't ditch my friends. I don't ditch

00:49:22.060 my allies. Whether that's Suella Braverman or Posh George, you know, I do not ditch people

00:49:28.720 because somebody else wants to be different. And there's an irony in this, which is that

00:49:32.860 two years ago, Rupert Lowe

00:49:34.840 said, what a fantastic job

00:49:36.940 Jenrick, Braverman

00:49:38.660 and Kruger were doing inside the

00:49:40.820 Conservative Party.

00:49:42.960 And, you know,

00:49:45.080 unlike Chris Philp,

00:49:46.720 who failed completely

00:49:48.420 but now wants to sort of forget it,

00:49:51.600 in the case of

00:49:52.520 Braverman and Jenrick,

00:49:55.100 they resigned from their positions

00:49:56.620 in their frustration that the government

00:49:58.800 wouldn't get a grip.

00:50:00.920 So that would not be

00:50:02.500 part of a negotiation.

00:50:04.940 In broader terms, look,

00:50:07.620 you know, you could see a situation

00:50:09.200 where

00:50:10.480 Restore

00:50:13.080 without the hope

00:50:14.960 of winning anything

00:50:17.020 outside Great Yarmouth, I mean literally without a hope

00:50:19.240 of winning a single seat in the country

00:50:21.260 could do us great harm.

00:50:23.740 And I think online you will see

00:50:25.460 a lot of

00:50:27.040 Restore potential voters

00:50:28.740 now beginning to worry

00:50:30.420 about the impact that might have so look i finalize that by saying if it wasn't if it was

00:50:36.380 the offer of a deal it came in a very unusual way i have responded to it potentially you know with

00:50:43.660 an open mind as i would but i'm certainly not going to be ditching people that i view to be

00:50:49.300 allies and a great asset that is a fascinating set of statements so the first being the concession

00:50:57.360 well we're still actually there's one bit right at the beginning i'll address it very quickly

00:51:01.420 um he keeps bringing up this deal with the conservatives that deal was that they put

00:51:06.780 rupert low on the public accounts committee and the deal was but please treat the chairman with

00:51:12.200 respect and rupert was like yeah of course yeah and he mentioned that's the deal that that that

00:51:16.680 was mentioned on the jacob reese mogg interview that he did with him as a throwaway line and

00:51:21.500 reform have grasped on this yes and created a big conspiracy theory out of it i see i see

00:51:27.340 people coming at me all the time

00:51:29.580 saying that they're in cahoots.

00:51:31.320 No, the deal was to treat the chairman

00:51:33.540 of the select committee with respect. That was a deal.

00:51:36.620 And Rupert Law, I guess,

00:51:37.560 has stood by that.

00:51:39.100 But yeah, they've made this out to be something

00:51:41.480 far greater than it obviously

00:51:43.460 is.

00:51:45.980 But

00:51:46.380 I view that as a form of cope

00:51:49.440 as well, by the way. As a massive

00:51:51.360 cope. No, no, no.

00:51:54.300 Just be nice to us.

00:51:55.620 it's just civility it was literally just please be civil and he was like yeah okay no problem

00:52:00.740 um uh so anyway another thing though the the most important thing here is the admission

00:52:05.600 that restore could do great damage to reform well the way he framed it the other way he said lots

00:52:10.580 of restore voters are worried that their vote could damage us i i think it's the other way

00:52:15.420 around i think reform is worried that restore well he said that right yeah he said that you

00:52:19.800 could see a situation where restore could do us great harm and so that that's very interesting

00:52:24.680 because we've advanced now from when he he said yeah i kicked rupert out because he was um going

00:52:31.160 beyond the pale uh but he won't get one percent anywhere not even in great yarmouth and that was

00:52:35.200 before the local elections it's gone to okay well he okay but he won't win seats outside of great

00:52:40.620 yeah you can just see how this process is going to evolve over the next couple of years absolutely

00:52:44.420 and then you know if if it's going to be like oh whatever it was three three weeks to be three

00:52:50.200 weeks to beat covid you know that that or three weeks of lockdown or whatever it was that there

00:52:54.360 are the sort of like donald trump sort of like donald trump won't do this donald trump and it's

00:52:58.360 like donald trump won't you know do this it's like you are here you know those sort of lists where

00:53:02.860 it's like right okay we're starting to create a list now it won't be one percent i won't win

00:53:05.800 or we won't do that he won't do that it's like okay but what if we do right and in the replies

00:53:11.840 people were like i don't ditch my friends except for robert kilroy silk godfrey bloom douglas

00:53:17.040 carswell mark reckless jared batten ben habib rupert lowe and countless other people it's like

00:53:21.880 yes there's a score you you haven't heard of most of them because they were just members who got an

00:53:26.560 email one but there was so many people that have been ditched over this crazy this is like him

00:53:31.120 saying oh i can't be bought except on cameo you know like it's like nigel no one no one thinks

00:53:37.400 of you as that kind of hardline principled politician it's fine you don't need to pretend

00:53:42.380 to be to be honest i've just got to come back on this on this one seat thing as well um i mean bear

00:53:48.820 in mind that ukip won clacton his first seat in 2014 with um oh what was it douglas carswell's

00:53:55.960 by-election and and then they just about held on to in 2015 and then they lost it again

00:54:00.720 and so you so this thing about oh you're just one seat yeah but that's your story as well

00:54:07.140 you started with one seat um and then you actually even lost it for a while and then you came back

00:54:11.780 in a new iteration and you didn't get anything of that and then you came back in another new

00:54:15.200 iteration and now well for a while you were on the verge of being prime minister so don't tell

00:54:21.320 me that just because you're you're early yeah that you that you're you can't win in the end

00:54:26.940 because actually you can and you've demonstrated that and you've made a call to restore voters

00:54:31.260 what is it you want how do i win you back and here's the answer so exactly and then you're like

00:54:36.560 well i'm keeping an open mind but i'm certainly not gonna kick the tories out of my party i think

00:54:41.620 that point

00:54:42.420 can be negotiated

00:54:43.220 yeah I don't know

00:54:45.000 he feels

00:54:45.540 he feels like

00:54:46.160 he's quite solid

00:54:46.740 on that

00:54:47.140 like no I'm not

00:54:47.920 going to kick out

00:54:48.320 the Tories

00:54:48.680 I think Rupert

00:54:50.580 might concede

00:54:51.060 ground on that one

00:54:51.760 I think

00:54:52.440 well I haven't

00:54:53.920 spoken to Rupert

00:54:54.420 about it

00:54:54.660 and I don't know

00:54:55.040 if you have

00:54:55.360 but for me

00:54:56.440 it's one and two

00:54:57.440 because we're

00:54:58.400 going to agree

00:54:58.680 on four anyway

00:54:59.580 three the death

00:55:00.580 penalty that much

00:55:01.260 but one and two

00:55:02.160 those are the real

00:55:03.520 red lines

00:55:04.080 I mean I spoke

00:55:04.720 to members of the

00:55:05.240 party after this

00:55:06.040 and they don't

00:55:07.460 know what he's

00:55:07.840 talking about

00:55:08.240 with the blub

00:55:08.800 of the conservatives

00:55:09.440 there's not

00:55:09.960 really been any

00:55:10.880 change in the relationship well that's because there's no there's no deal in the first place

00:55:14.380 it's just an act of civility is yeah yeah well exactly and like but he was like yeah they had

00:55:18.520 a deal and then that's all blows what are you talking about yeah um well because it's a it's

00:55:22.860 a figment of their imagination so yeah um anyway so apparently after this um faraj said that he'd

00:55:28.460 reached out to rupert low uh for a phone call but hadn't received a reply um and rupert low was like

00:55:33.800 well um not really uh apparently you just texted me we'll call later and then you didn't call so

00:55:41.560 it's like right okay i mean it's all getting a bit like he said she said and sort of petty yeah

00:55:46.520 um but it just this this stuff is getting blown out of proportion look yeah the point is is

00:55:54.560 the closest analogy i can i can bring is poker so i don't know i don't know if this will make

00:56:00.420 sense to people who don't play poker but well i don't play poker but carry on if i'm in a situation

00:56:04.620 it's early in the hand i've got i've got suited connectors uh i don't know if i'm going to win

00:56:09.580 it all in the end but i've got enough i've got enough that i think i've got a chance of winning

00:56:14.280 it all i might make a big bet and i'm perfectly happy to see the other side play it out because

00:56:19.080 i think i could get there or i'm perfectly happy to to win the pot immediately i think this is what

00:56:24.400 rupert is essentially doing he's saying look i i think that if we go the distance i can grow

00:56:29.880 restore to the point where i can win an election yeah but that is a process and it will take time

00:56:36.240 so i will do that but i'm also willing to make this deal and if you adopt our key policies well

00:56:43.200 you can just win it right now and as long as you're implementing our policies that's fine

00:56:47.140 i think rupert's fairly neutral on which path of reform go down i suspect it's very unlikely that

00:56:55.720 nigel will actually want to do this deal agreed i mean i can't even believe he's given

00:57:02.200 as much ground as he has at this point because normally when nigel frage politically assassinates

00:57:07.560 you he never brings you up again yeah he'll never even mention but this is actually a really good

00:57:11.600 deal because it the trade offer is i get actual right-wing policies you get to be prime minister

00:57:18.700 of great britain and northern ireland and i i that's a bloody good deal but also on the on the

00:57:25.340 sort of like right-wing policies thing what is holding him back at this point right all of the

00:57:31.920 polling has been done right you go regularly poll the british public we know we want the death penalty

00:57:36.520 we know we want burqas banned we know we want halal slaughter banned we know we want like

00:57:40.960 immigration ended and millions sent home right demographic security i think it's because if he

00:57:46.580 if he agrees to the to upholding christianity to reversing islamification and mass deportations

00:57:54.040 people who read the guardian won't vote for him yes or no it's not that beth rigby will give him

00:58:00.540 a grilling next time he's on sky you know like it's it's just like look man you've got to accept

00:58:05.080 these people aren't your friends yes you've got to accept the people in the liberal media hate you

00:58:09.440 want you dead and look at look at your unfavorability there is a large proportion of the

00:58:14.400 country on the left who will never vote for you under any circumstances your your territory is to

00:58:21.060 your right it's not to your left yes and your vacillation makes you look weak and unprincipled

00:58:26.820 and andy burnham understood this immediately the labor party have spent the last two or three years

00:58:33.140 thinking oh do we go right do we go left all of you know we can do both of these simultaneously

00:58:38.520 and burnham just came straight and it's like no we left yeah we can't win and and he's and

00:58:43.380 he's now in contention and a number of polls showing him that he's going to win the next

00:58:47.300 election rupert sorry not nigel you need to understand no no stop this equivocation each

00:58:53.780 way it's the right in fact so deal with the right rupert lo of course denies what nigel

00:58:59.060 farage said here because it's obvious that that's not the case like no the deal with the tories and

00:59:03.980 all this nonsense just nonsense right but then nigel france went on um times radio and this is

00:59:09.780 what he said let me ask you another quick one about the leader of restore britain rupert low

00:59:13.540 nigel he's offered to partner with reform in an effort to defeat the political left you've

00:59:18.260 agreed to a conversation has there been contact today no i mean i you know i'm not quite sure

00:59:24.400 what the offer was to be honest with you um whether it was sincere or not but i did say

00:59:28.880 yesterday you know i'll call you later i expected that i expected to get an okay or four o'clock

00:59:34.100 suits didn't get anything um um let's see where it goes i think there are a huge number of restore

00:59:40.460 voters uh who when push comes to shove would vote for reform in a general election because i mean

00:59:46.160 let's be frank you know outside of perhaps great yarmouth i don't see restore winning a single seat

00:59:51.860 anywhere in the country but i'm always prepared to put past differences should we say i'm

00:59:59.380 understating that but to put past differences aside in the interest of getting some sort of

01:00:03.960 unity so look i'm not closing my door on it but i i'm just sort of slightly questioning what the

01:00:09.440 deal is because it seems that he's already accused you of lying today hasn't he which is extraordinary

01:00:14.060 which is extraordinary is absolutely an extraordinary thing to have done i'm not

01:00:20.340 going to return the compliment other than to say you know he's not a very easy person to deal with

01:00:25.100 but if there is a chat to be had i will have that chat right but he did lie he lied about the

01:00:32.620 the deal with the tories he lied about that blowing up he lied about being in contact right

01:00:39.920 like he just said there he modifies the story say well i expected a response back why did you

01:00:45.640 you didn't say that before and you know so it is so you're now trying to say oh the the balls of

01:00:51.740 rupert's court because i texted him and he didn't say okay right it's like look man it's the same

01:00:56.800 thing that happened with the police investigation it was the story modified i i'm less concerned

01:01:02.140 about this because this is this is normal political bickering i i agree right but the thing is it's

01:01:08.040 not like we don't have reform surrogates just out here blabbing right oh they've gone mental thank

01:01:15.440 god for rahim kassam right he's too too dumb to understand why he's actually given the whole game

01:01:20.220 away here right so will's very sensible chap he's just like okay what's the point here uh where's

01:01:26.120 this unreasonable and rahim just like aha i have some inside knowledge because rahim was an advisor

01:01:30.900 to nudge for us for years right no he's still called upon to answer questions in press conferences

01:01:35.380 he did in fact in this previous one we just looked at no one in reform wants to work with

01:01:39.940 rupert lowe alistair harrison or liam porter they is people not their policies are the red line and

01:01:44.480 That will never change.

01:01:46.040 So you're not going to put your egos aside for country,

01:01:50.020 even though, as Will says,

01:01:51.720 so as Farage's former chief advisor,

01:01:53.660 you can't give me a policy which says,

01:01:55.000 no, I'm very specifically saying policy isn't the problem.

01:01:58.720 What part of that do you fail to understand?

01:01:59.900 It's like, Raheem, I don't...

01:02:01.140 That is extraordinary.

01:02:01.880 If you're prepared to give up 8% of the vote

01:02:04.280 when you're neck and neck with Labour

01:02:07.080 because you personally don't like a couple of characters,

01:02:10.640 and actually...

01:02:11.080 That is crazy.

01:02:12.400 It's mental, but...

01:02:13.880 You braggadocious moron.

01:02:15.820 Don't you understand that you're flapping your mouth

01:02:17.580 in the worst possible way here?

01:02:18.760 I will credit to Zaya Yusuf here

01:02:20.220 because he has gone on a number of interviews now

01:02:23.100 and he's asked about,

01:02:24.600 could you work with Rupert again?

01:02:26.460 And you can see that he doesn't want to

01:02:28.440 because obviously they had a falling out.

01:02:30.880 But actually the answer...

01:02:31.820 But he leveled false allegations against him.

01:02:33.460 Yeah, but actually the answer he gives is,

01:02:35.520 it's not about my comfort,

01:02:37.500 it's about the country.

01:02:39.140 Well done, Zaya.

01:02:40.500 That is exactly the correct response.

01:02:43.900 Now, I mean, I think he's right,

01:02:46.600 but clearly it would be, I mean, for both of them, actually,

01:02:49.260 for Rupert and for Nigel,

01:02:50.500 for them to ever work together would be incredibly difficult.

01:02:53.320 There's no way Nigel would do it.

01:02:54.680 I mean, literally, Raheem is saying,

01:02:56.360 it's the people, not the policies.

01:02:57.620 Yeah, but if you could swallow your pride,

01:03:01.080 if you could get over it, and Rupert has made the offer,

01:03:03.460 so he's willing to do it, and I don't think he wants to do it,

01:03:06.040 and we said he doesn't.

01:03:06.820 He doesn't want to do it, but he's going to do it.

01:03:09.480 If you could just swallow your pride,

01:03:11.060 you get an extra eight percent and you will become prime minister of this country

01:03:14.980 and you just have to work with whatever it was three people that you don't like very much

01:03:21.740 in fact you don't even need in fact you've got a choice they don't have to come into your office

01:03:25.800 or anything yeah you've got yeah you've got a choice you could either agree to the policy

01:03:30.240 platform and then you never need to see those people or you could you could water it down and

01:03:37.700 then you might end up having to see those people but you've got options but but you get to become

01:03:42.520 prime minister yeah so what what to make of all of this right so farage um looks a bit cowed here

01:03:49.140 in my opinion i actually thought rupert was probably a bit more aggressive than he needed to

01:03:52.880 be frankly because normally farage is sort of person who'd come out and make it you know quite

01:03:56.480 a strident argument be a bit sort of bullshit about things but actually they're both really

01:04:00.880 pissed off with each other they really don't like each other so like yeah but but it's true on but

01:04:05.960 I mean, Rupert has said explicitly that he's furious with Farage.

01:04:09.460 But for the good of the country, it would be good if all of them, Rupert and Nigel, could take the Zaya approach.

01:04:16.700 And Rupert has started to do that, but he's still obviously quite annoyed.

01:04:20.520 But the issue probably also is policy, because remember, the difference in personality...

01:04:28.300 I mean, for example, Nigel Farage asked Rupert Lowe to be a Brexit Party MEP, right?

01:04:33.540 so he said look i'd like to come and be in it at breaks party mbp and then when reform was running

01:04:38.400 uh standing he was i want you to stand in great yarmouth for me like so farage has solicited

01:04:44.660 rupert lowe on all of these things yes and it's because rupert lowe has been like okay well if

01:04:49.040 we're going to be the patriots who save the country why are we playing the shallow end of

01:04:52.720 the pool right shouldn't we be going farther to the right and farage that was too far and it's in

01:04:57.580 this distinction this this drift between them the distance between them that the personal issue has

01:05:02.900 come up between them right yes Nigel Farage was like no I'm in the I'm the leader you should have

01:05:07.420 known your place and Rupert was like well that's not going to save the country yeah I'm going to

01:05:11.420 put myself on this is why the first thing when when Rupert was first kicked out and I just said

01:05:15.680 he was trying to take over the party he was trying to take the party it's like he can't take over

01:05:19.000 your party there's no mechanism for it right what you were worried about he was he was going to be

01:05:22.500 too right wing for you and upstage you right and first rule of power Robert Green never upstaged

01:05:28.180 the master yeah it was always going to happen there was going to be some fallout here bad

01:05:31.280 blood and that is exactly the pattern with raj it's steve wolf um um robert kilroy silk um gerard

01:05:40.880 batten i mean there's a whole long list of people who started to get popular and you could tell the

01:05:46.660 moment they started to get popular that's when the it's because they were more right wing than

01:05:50.740 nigel france that's why they were getting popular yes and so anyway right so reform are in this

01:05:56.360 position of weakness at the moment they're declining in the polls it's become evident

01:06:00.560 that there is a sizable, a non-trivial percentage

01:06:04.480 of the right-wing vote, the active, engaged right-wing vote.

01:06:07.360 I mean, like, say what you like about Makefield,

01:06:09.180 but Restore's ground game was incredible, right?

01:06:11.540 Now, it was probably a fait accompli, you know,

01:06:13.600 as a constituency, there's always voted Labour,

01:06:15.880 and Andy Burnham was pitching Restore Labour,

01:06:19.420 a right-wing reactionary policy,

01:06:21.800 to the Labour voters of Makefield.

01:06:23.180 It's probably always going to be that it voted Labour, right?

01:06:25.940 But the flood, the energy that Restore

01:06:29.300 was able to summon up can't be ignored why can't you get that nigel why don't you have that right

01:06:35.480 and so you're on this downswing you've got an insurgent party that i mean i was watching a

01:06:41.740 bunch of like the new statesman times podcast um uh the news agents all those sorts of you know

01:06:46.780 the libtard i have to watch them as well yeah i have to watch them right but they're all like

01:06:50.240 oh restore did surprisingly well in manchester by in manchester mayoral didn't they you know

01:06:55.680 nine percent or that's that's more than we expect it's like yeah it is because we actually do

01:07:00.020 represent a a true force in this country we're only what five months old now you know what we

01:07:05.860 represent is the genuine british right yes who you have never unless you unless you watch youtube

01:07:11.100 you've never heard them you've never met them you've never you've you've never seen them on

01:07:15.700 news night you've never seen them on question time they're about half the country yes

01:07:19.860 you know the 90 taxi drivers yeah yeah yeah they're half the country um so

01:07:29.500 we know that it is both a policy and personality issue yes because the policies inform the

01:07:37.140 personality conflict right so it's it's an issue of okay this is where we stand at the moment

01:07:43.820 where reform uh reformer on the downswing on about 23 percent restore on the upswing on about

01:07:49.200 nine percent in the like seven to nine percent that sort of area but it's going up so where does

01:07:55.160 this look like in a year's time well farage can't really seem to get rid of the scandals

01:07:59.660 farage isn't exactly covering himself in glory he actually seems to have a growing constituency of

01:08:06.560 people who are just like never farage so i i think i see broadly where you're going here and i think

01:08:11.300 i would say is if farage is going to do a deal it should be this one it should be now it should be

01:08:16.880 now because you will never getting any stronger you wouldn't yet you're never going to get better

01:08:20.660 terms than this if you if you let restore grow and grow and grow it won't be it won't be as

01:08:26.280 simple as this it will be like and also you've got to stand down in 100 seats or something

01:08:30.240 and and also okay yeah oh well i don't think he's going to win outside of great yarmouth

01:08:34.680 okay but what happens when he beats you in a constituency that you were competing in now

01:08:40.860 that doesn't mean he wins the constituency you know but if say another labour seat in the north

01:08:45.480 what happens you know that we're already beating the conservatives right in manchester and gorton

01:08:49.980 and makefield already beating the conservatives what happens when you get 15 and we get 16 yeah

01:08:56.560 right what then yeah you split the vote you should be standing down like this the night the nightmare

01:09:02.220 scenario for virage is that the seat next door to great yarmouth yeah comes up in a by-election

01:09:07.920 and what will happen is restore will either win it or come second and reform would would be well

01:09:16.220 below that they'd be like third or fourth yeah that that would be the absolute nightmare scenario

01:09:20.280 because he likes to pretend that they're not going to get anywhere actually no it is radiating out

01:09:25.140 radiating out like Chernobyl or something from Great Yarmouth and and you can see that from the

01:09:30.720 from the local council seats that have gone up around there he is strong and he is growing yes

01:09:36.180 And there are also other places like on the other side of the country, like Western Supermare, which is like a kind of Western version of Great Yarmouth, you know, it's a slightly older but left behind patriotic town, seaside town.

01:09:48.280 That would also be a strong place.

01:09:50.480 And they've got a strong restored branch there already who left reform because they're like, this is not going anywhere.

01:09:56.300 Three restored branches have popped up around me.

01:09:58.520 Yeah, the natural growth is quite scary for reform.

01:10:03.600 So it's one of those things.

01:10:04.940 And it basically means that Rupert Lowe has a constituency that Farage can't touch, right?

01:10:10.940 Sorry.

01:10:11.900 So this is some polling on why people are interested in Restore Britain.

01:10:18.740 And 57% say Restore are the only party being honest about the issues facing the country,

01:10:22.960 and among the main reason they intend to vote for them, right?

01:10:26.200 Demographic security always comes back to that.

01:10:29.140 and then you've got uh some of the where are we right 36 of restore voters so they'd be willing

01:10:36.880 to consider voting for reform a few fewer election a future election and 23 are open to backing the

01:10:42.880 conservatives two-thirds like i love i love nudge of phrases oh there are there are loads of restore

01:10:49.760 voters out there who might support there are loads of restore voters out there but they're

01:10:53.600 not actually mostly in favor of you right yeah and actually these numbers are compare high compared

01:11:00.260 to conservatives conservatives uh are actually the least likely to switch their vote to reform

01:11:06.720 if they if they don't have a conservative voter to vote because all the conservatives who would

01:11:12.700 have been have already gone yeah and so okay you're only left with the ones who are like

01:11:16.640 really pissed off about you coming along and the uh in fact we can see that in the greater

01:11:22.520 manchester election because they've got the runoff so if they have exactly what i'd expected to see

01:11:27.480 exactly right so you just for anyone watching so out of the uh 2 million people who voted about

01:11:33.380 500 000 people voted which are 25 and labor got 250 000 which okay not terribly surprising but

01:11:39.920 reform got 111 000 112 000 restore got nearly 50 000 and the conservatives got over 40 000

01:11:47.220 so if we just for the sake of just ease say that's 100k there 100k there you only got for about 50k

01:11:54.740 half of those transferring so that means you say right i want conservatives or i want restore or i

01:12:00.760 want whoever and then my second choice will be reform and those are the transferred votes so

01:12:06.920 it's essentially a way of saying look because you get the second round so you're not wasting

01:12:10.540 yeah i think we can safely assume that restore and conservatives theoretically should all have

01:12:15.680 transferred over to reform with only standard right-wing dogma reform dogma is that yeah

01:12:20.760 everybody votes for anything normally right-wing is secretly one of our voters exactly but actually

01:12:25.920 half of them are not yes right so you lost half of these votes now it wouldn't have made a

01:12:30.360 difference they wouldn't have won but it reveals to us that actually there's a large consideration

01:12:36.260 about half of the right-wing vote that farage actually or about a quarter of the right-wing

01:12:40.840 vote that farage has no access to at all because he is farage it's like right do you want to lose

01:12:46.860 a quarter of the total vote but that you could possibly get the upper ceiling of your vote

01:12:50.780 is reduced by a quarter because you are nigel farage the conservatives already know who you

01:12:56.180 are restore already know you are and i mean in in the case of restore in particular only a third of

01:13:02.080 them just will only a third of them will vote for you two-thirds of them will not vote for you

01:13:06.340 Right. But conversely, actually, Rupert Lowe is quite popular in reform. I can't remember whereabouts it is in here, but I pulled it out earlier. 44% of reform voters have a positive opinion of, in fact, it'll be around here somewhere.

01:13:26.120 um yeah there we go 44 of reform uk's voters see him positively compared to 24 who view him

01:13:33.940 unfavorably so theoretically that could be three quarters of reforms vote that could go

01:13:38.920 to restore so you've got one third of restores vote that we might have three quarters of your

01:13:45.140 vote okay right so we can reach into your parts into your constituency and pull out you know

01:13:52.040 hundreds of probably millions of voters but you can't reach into ours and pull those back that's

01:13:57.260 my point earlier if if nigel is going to accept any deal it should be this one yes don't wait a

01:14:02.220 year because the the sands are not flowing in your direction nigel right the fact that you're at this

01:14:07.500 point having to concede while they could do a lot of damage to us i don't think they'll win outside

01:14:11.620 of great yarmouth though but it's not the one percent like the fact that you're even listening

01:14:15.760 to this and only a month ago the story was they will have no impact whatsoever exactly and after

01:14:21.380 every single political assassination where you're like i'm never ever talking about that person ever

01:14:25.920 again now you're like well i have to consider it i mean or i don't know about it right it's not great

01:14:30.340 right and so i posted this on twitter uh today so look right this is about big tents right farage

01:14:36.760 is the thing that is preventing the big tent from happening right he should have followed the sort

01:14:41.920 of trumpian model of saying look just everyone to my everyone on the right is my guy and i will rely

01:14:48.480 on the alternative media and i will judo flip the mainstream media by coming out with quite

01:14:53.600 what seems like quite a hard and severe right-wing policy to get them arguing about the issues i want

01:15:00.600 to talk about but that is also popular with the country yeah so if you said look i'm just going

01:15:04.740 to deport millions the media were like my god nigel farage can deport millions and everyone

01:15:09.840 going oh thank god nigel farage is going to deport millions right it's just like trump with building

01:15:13.680 the wall that's our finally someone's going to build a bloody wall right it's it's all those

01:15:18.160 left-wing podcasts you talked about a moment ago they will flip when they hear something like that

01:15:22.840 absolutely but that is a that is a bubble everybody else would be like brilliant yeah exactly the front

01:15:29.500 pages be like nigel farage is going to deport millions of foreigners and everyone like thank

01:15:33.620 you that's all i want and the beat and the bbc will run with it channel four will run with exactly

01:15:38.380 how trump run with it billions of dollars in free advertising for the media because they were like

01:15:42.340 can you believe he said this yes and everyone's like no but thank god he has you know they were

01:15:47.500 excited about and then Nigel Farage could just go on you know all of the sort of the alternative

01:15:51.180 media that you know like i mean probably the telegraph being the most sort of left-wing

01:15:55.800 will have tolerated him even with a hardline immigration policy but he could have come you

01:16:00.500 know gone you know damn what and us whoever else on the right like big podcasts with millions of

01:16:05.600 views he could have come over to those and be like yeah yeah so this is what we're going to do

01:16:08.720 and he would have been able to get massive media attention massive spread of his message without

01:16:14.740 compromising on his message create the massive tent and say no i'm not going to kick anyone out

01:16:19.100 because i don't care about but it does require it requires trumpian cojones but exactly yeah

01:16:25.480 right which farage just doesn't do so he can't build the big tent right he should have had all

01:16:31.880 the radicals on his side and have and just literally pointed them at the enemy and gone

01:16:36.320 right go nuts guys you know go and go and give them a piece of your mind because we're going to

01:16:41.800 deport millions of people and that's all the thing that's the only thing that you need to worry about

01:16:44.880 really trust us you know this is fine just go out and be my army out there for me instead he couldn't

01:16:50.060 do that right he's always genuflected towards the left towards the media towards the consensus

01:16:54.660 where he said look i'm really one of you guys it's like well i'm sorry that's not going to be

01:16:58.080 good enough he's always looking for a favorable hearing from people who genuinely despise him

01:17:03.020 who wanted that he's got to stop doing i mean the the it was who's it that was cheering after

01:17:07.900 ann widdekin was literally bludgeoned to death in her home yeah there were a bunch of them that

01:17:11.820 everyone was like what are you doing they were like oh no actually i'm sorry i shouldn't have

01:17:15.580 done that but that was their instinctive reaction oh i oh god one of the reformed people have died

01:17:20.680 they've been murdered brilliant let me tell you how much of a bigot that person was like they

01:17:25.120 hate you nigel they cheer when you die yeah and yet for some reason you're still looking for

01:17:31.120 approval yeah mad absolutely mad but the point that i'm making at the end here is that burnham

01:17:36.140 understands this yeah he is more morally aligned with his radicals than not farage is not that way

01:17:42.220 and so he can never make any progress there's there is nowhere for reform to go now right

01:17:48.060 there's you you can oh we're going to create fortress britain and stop the boats everyone's

01:17:52.480 promising that labor have been promising that the conservatives have been promising that

01:17:56.700 you've been promising that yeah i mean i bet the lib dems are even promising that when you knuckle

01:18:01.480 down to it what's the difference in immigration policy between shabana mahmood and nigel farage

01:18:06.640 i mean there is practically very little difference zero and shabana mahmood being

01:18:11.880 andy burnham's home secretary there's no difference between burnham and you yep right there's no way

01:18:17.680 you can go that is actually going to place you outside of the consensus now without accidentally

01:18:23.140 standing next to rupert low yeah and and and this is again the point to reform supporters who are

01:18:30.160 who are baffled why we don't instantly support the most nominally right-wing party with the biggest

01:18:34.820 percentage in the polls it's and and they and they keep saying things like the store need us

01:18:40.480 more than we need them it's like yeah but you don't you don't it's you're not offering anything

01:18:45.480 that i want you're not paying attention to the direction of travel yeah if you if you're not

01:18:50.000 giving me demographic security and your offer on that is basically okay i might get slightly

01:18:55.680 lower taxes with you maybe i mean don't get me wrong wonderful but yeah that's not my first

01:19:00.520 issue my my one and only issue is demographic security exactly and if if you can't just come

01:19:06.320 out and full-throatedly say my god of course we can't let the british become a minority in britain

01:19:11.160 then there's something wrong with you it's your policies your your your your attitude that fails

01:19:18.460 to understand that that has to be the case but anyway so i think reforms goose is cooked at this

01:19:23.600 point right i don't see how they pull this back i just don't see how they pull it back oh very

01:19:27.980 easily well i mean i do this deal okay okay you do you do this deal you firm up on stuff they're

01:19:34.620 not going to win the next general election you become prime minister they're not going to do

01:19:37.900 this right yes they're not going to do any of these things they've already rejected full-throatedly

01:19:43.460 in the commentariat the reform sort of talking heads nigel farage is clearly playing for time

01:19:49.640 on this he's clearly like well i don't know about this i don't know the fact that he has hesitated

01:19:53.920 as long as he has tells you what a good offer it is because because his supporters are doing the

01:19:59.940 oh the um the emotional ex-girlfriend routine yes where they're just they're just absolutely

01:20:06.680 having a tis was about this like i don't want you back and oh my god you're there with the

01:20:10.740 No, so they're picking on the, oh, well, he didn't call me back.

01:20:14.240 They're talking about the most irrelevant nonsense,

01:20:16.680 sequencing or something like that.

01:20:18.220 And I'm sure Faraj feels that way,

01:20:21.620 but you can see how good an offer it is,

01:20:24.340 is that we're now, what, three days in,

01:20:26.840 and he hasn't come out and said just no.

01:20:29.680 What he's come out with is that initial statement that you showed,

01:20:32.600 which was God knows what it said,

01:20:34.400 and a couple of interviews where he's like,

01:20:36.200 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, but I'm considering it.

01:20:38.780 it tells you that this is a really really good deal and it also shows the weakness of reform

01:20:44.900 he hasn't got anywhere else he can go he's being eaten up on the right flank

01:20:48.900 if the direction of travel continues like it intersects at some point you want to get to that

01:20:54.520 point nigel how much weaker are you going to be then and i think on some level he must know this

01:20:58.520 and if he doesn't know it somebody like zaya yusuf has figured it out and explained it to him

01:21:03.980 it's it's you you don't have you don't have ground on the left to take you have ground on the right

01:21:09.260 and you are being offered it you you just need to take the firmest version of everything we've ever

01:21:16.460 talked about and there's nothing to lose you just you just need to give people actual right-wing

01:21:22.800 policies and swallow your pride a bit and be civil to somebody that you hate and zach polanski will

01:21:28.220 complain about you and put up t-shirts with you know you being guilty then you win but then you'll

01:21:33.360 win yeah exactly so it's easy for him to turn it around you're just assuming that he will not be

01:21:40.140 able to get over his own ego and i'm and you're correct on and you're probably right yeah i think

01:21:44.240 i'm correct on this i don't think he's going to do that um so anyway that's that's where i think

01:21:50.120 the situation is at the moment and i don't think nigel forage has it in him to create that big 10

01:21:56.300 and it's his own fault he has created the people outside of the big 10 in the same way starmer did

01:22:02.520 he put them there

01:22:03.500 and they are going

01:22:04.580 to eat him alive

01:22:05.600 and this is

01:22:06.380 why he's on the

01:22:07.200 horns of this dilemma

01:22:08.020 good stuff

01:22:12.180 very good

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - August 05, 2026

Why Farage Keeps Losing

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