00:00:25.140if you were trying to make a fortune on Polly Market,
00:00:27.720you would probably bet that Democrats walk away in less than two months with both houses of
00:00:33.600Congress, with control of the legislative branch. So what does that mean, and what's likely to
00:00:39.380happen after? Well, again, we don't know. You can imagine all kinds of things, but some things seem
00:00:43.940more likely than others. One, Democrats probably will initiate some kind of proceeding against the
00:00:51.720president and against people who work for him, maybe an impeachment against him. Certainly a
00:00:55.840lot of people who work at the White House are going to get subpoenas. There may be criminal
00:00:59.740actions or an attempt to initiate criminal actions. There's going to be a explosion of
00:01:07.100partisan fighting in Washington because the party that just took the House and Senate is going to
00:01:13.560be under pressure from its voters to do something once they got there. People voted Democrat because
00:01:17.320they're mad at Trump. And so they're going to expect their representatives to punish Trump in
00:01:23.780some way so you can just imagine that the second two years of the second trump administration
00:01:29.180will be at least on domestic matters pretty absorbed by political fighting so how does
00:01:36.840the president respond to that well again we can't know but if we had to guess he'll likely respond
00:01:41.580like previous presidents have responded and that's by turning his attention outside the country well
00:01:46.920of course he already is totally absorbed in what's happening outside our country because
00:01:51.440we're now fighting two wars against near peer adversaries, Russia and Iran, and we're not
00:01:57.760succeeding in either war. So you can imagine President Trump in frustration or out of a
00:02:04.480kind of natural desire to exert power, doubling down in both of those conflicts, committing
00:02:10.980ground troops, for example, just guessing here, in Iran, accelerating rather than pulling back.
00:02:18.160because the one thing you know no matter how much democrats say they hate donald trump they will not
00:02:24.020try to restrain his unconstitutional power the power he's assumed to declare war without
00:02:30.900approval from congress like the president now possesses the power to commit troops wherever
00:02:35.620he wants despite the fact the constitution prohibits that lots of presidents have used
00:02:39.920that power for therefore it exists and probably always will and they're not going to do anything
00:02:45.280about it because ultimately they agree with him they may hate trump but they're neocons just like
00:02:50.340he is so they support what he's doing in iran maybe they don't think he's doing a good job of
00:02:55.040it but the idea of a regime change war against iran the democratic leadership is for that chuck
00:02:59.880schumer has said he's for that so it seems probable at least that if trump say gets impeached
00:03:10.040we will have an acceleration in the war against Iran and maybe in the war against Russia.
00:03:17.720And at that point, we'll all be so caught up in that disaster that we probably won't have a chance
00:03:25.000to think about why did power change hands so dramatically in the midterms? And you'll hear
00:03:30.220people say, well, that always happens. You know, the president's party tends to lose seats in the
00:03:34.300midterm elections. And of course, that's true. Haven't checked the numbers, but it seems even
00:03:38.920more true in the second term. So this is just kind of conventional. This is what happens.
00:03:45.460But it's not exactly right. That's not the only reason. People don't vote against the
00:03:50.980president's party just because they always have in the past. President Trump won a larger share
00:03:57.880of the popular vote than any Republican president in a long time. He came into office more popular
00:04:02.460than a Republican president had been, certainly much more popular than he was in the first term.
00:04:06.200and now he's deeply unpopular so something changed and it's worth pausing just for a minute
00:04:12.080to think through what that is why is it that trump who a year and a half ago was
00:04:18.080popular and probably could have done a lot of different things
00:04:21.320is now looking at a total wipeout and likely impeachment and if you had to sum it up in one
00:04:29.480word that word would be betrayal so in other words it's not just that trump was elected
00:04:34.540president and didn't do a very good job. We just saw that with the last president. We elect the
00:04:39.300guy and oops, turns out he has dementia. No, this is a different thing. This is the process of
00:04:46.900electing a president on the basis of promises he'll do one thing and then watching him do
00:04:52.620exactly the opposite on purpose, not forced to. There was no reason that Trump had to sell out
00:04:58.340his voters. There was no economic reason. There was no strategic reason. He just decided to. Now
00:05:05.320why he decided to is a whole separate conversation that historians, one hopes, will get to the bottom
00:05:11.320of at some point. But whatever the motive, we know that that's exactly what he did. He ran on one
00:05:17.440thing and did the opposite of that thing, and that is, once again, betrayal. And betrayal is always
00:05:22.580the worst thing. In marriage, betrayal is called cheating. In business, betrayal is called
00:05:27.100embezzlement. And it's always a bitter experience to find out someone you thought was your ally is
00:05:32.620in fact your enemy, is working against your interests. You thought you were working in
00:05:35.600concert. We're in this together. And then you find out that the person is actually working
00:05:40.900against you. That's called treachery. And it's unforgivable. That's why no one for 2,000 years
00:05:48.540has named his child Judas. Because treachery is abominable to all people at all times.
00:05:57.100there's something inherently disgusting about it. And that's exactly what we're looking at
00:06:01.760as we approach the halfway mark in Trump's second term as president. So rather than just assert
00:06:07.140that, we thought it'd be interesting to spend a few minutes going back and looking at the promises
00:06:13.760that the current president made right before he was elected president. Now, part of this is
00:06:18.700exculpatory for those of us who voted for Trump and who did so with sincerity, not in the hope
00:06:24.180of getting rich or getting a cabinet position, not donors to the campaign, merely cheerleaders
00:06:29.340for it, we have to answer the question, like, why did you do that?
00:06:34.020Why did you think this guy with, you know, a trail of bankruptcies and personal betrayals,
00:06:38.600why did you think he would be true to his word in this case?
00:06:42.120And that, you know, it's a fair question.
00:06:45.420But part of the answer is because the things he was saying were just so spot on.
00:06:51.360They were such precise descriptions of the problems, the actual problems, not Hamas or Islamic Jihad, but the real problems that Americans face.
00:06:59.100Donald Trump was able to capture and distill them very, very well.
00:07:04.680And just two years later, it's hard to remember any of that.
00:07:08.120It's hard to remember that this guy who's now funding, the whole purpose of the administration is to squelch criticism of Israel and sniff out anti-Semitism, America's biggest problem, or whatever they think they're doing.
00:07:19.000there's nothing to do with any real problem that most americans face it's like completely insane
00:07:24.820it's hard to remember that this guy not so long ago seemed to have his finger very much on the
00:07:31.740pulse like he knew what was wrong with the country and he said so again and again and again and so
00:07:37.900again it is kind of a way of explaining the behavior of those of us who voted for trump and
00:07:42.860we didn't know listen to this but it's also just interesting because it really reveals
00:07:48.200the totality of the 180 this guy took in less than two years so let's start at the beginning
00:07:55.760this is a clip from midway through 2023 so this is the point at which Trump is in the middle of
00:08:02.080all these legal dramas they're trying to send him to prison for the rest of his life and he's
00:08:05.960decided I'm going to run for president and here's why and we're starting with this clip because it
00:08:11.040really sums it up it sums up the reason that people voted for Donald Trump Donald Trump
00:08:16.600was above all else the enemy of something called the deep state watch this the stakes of this
00:08:25.180election could not be more clear either we surrender to the demonic forces abolishing
00:08:31.500and demolishing and happily doing so our country or we defeat them in a landslide on november 5th
00:08:40.8402024. Either the deep state destroys America or we destroy the deep state. That's the way it's
00:08:58.100got to be. So the reason that's so compelling is because it's the grand thesis of the entire
00:09:06.180Trump project. And it's true. America's problems are systemic problems, meaning the system itself
00:09:15.700doesn't function as designed or at least as intended. And everything else we're dealing
00:09:21.420with is a result of that fact. So on the most basic level, this is a democratic system. The
00:09:27.540people own the country. They elect leaders to speak for them in Washington. And they have
00:09:32.700a legitimate expectation of seeing the country molded to their desire since they are the
00:09:39.000shareholders and that's the whole point of the system is to reflect the view of the public
00:09:42.920in legislation in Washington and the actions of the executive branch and that hasn't been true
00:09:49.200for a long time now a lot of us have been slow on the uptake here taking us a while to figure that
00:09:53.920out because of this sideshow it turns out that's called partisan politics where you have these two
00:09:59.800parties that are fundamentally in agreement on the things that really matter, economics and foreign
00:10:03.920policy, but fight about a sliver of issues in the middle. And they fight in such a ferocious way
00:10:10.980that bystanders, the rest of us, think this is really real. These people hate each other.
00:10:16.480If only they would just get along. If only Tip O'Neill could have a drink with Ronald Reagan at
00:10:21.300the end of the day, the system might work. But that, of course, is an inversion of the truth.
00:10:25.380the problem isn't that the leaders of the two parties don't agree on anything the problem is
00:10:30.680that they agree on everything that matters and the rest of us weren't cut in on the joke
00:10:36.800and the effect and by the way this is very obvious to the rest of the world talk to anybody
00:10:42.780who watches american politics closely from abroad a sophisticated foreign observer starting with0.99
00:10:49.040putin who has made this point many times whatever you think of putin not stupid they all know this1.00
00:10:54.460it's obvious. As people used to ruefully say in Washington, no matter who you vote for,0.99
00:10:59.640you get John McCain. And that's kind of true. When was the last time we had a president
00:11:05.000who really disagreed with John McCain on foreign policy or economics?
00:11:10.720When was the last time we had a president who wasn't embroiled in some kind of financial
00:11:14.320corruption as John McCain was during the savings and loan scandal in the 80s? Can't really remember.
00:11:20.400so you always get a neocon president who believes in monopoly capitalism and somehow gets rich
00:11:28.080in the process that's not a two-party system that's a one-party system that is the deep state
00:11:34.440so when trump said deep state it's very different from saying those dastardly democrats that senile
00:11:39.540president and his wine mom running mate they're bad well yeah okay they're bad but that doesn't0.76
00:11:44.900begin to touch the scale of the badness. What's actually bad is the fact that Mitch McConnell's
00:11:51.960wife is working for the Chinese government and he's a Republican. So they're all in this together.
00:11:58.300We're excluded. And Trump seemed to understand that. He said it. He named it. So there are tons
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00:14:40.420here. Now, the downstream effect of a system like this is, of course, by definition, the end of
00:14:46.920democracy. The people don't rule. And academic studies, not that you need them, but we happen
00:14:52.560to have them, so why not cite them, show that the public, the non-donating members of the public,
00:15:35.660The second problem is you don't have rule of law when you have an oligarchy because
00:15:40.200there are always people who are exempt from the rules.
00:15:43.360And in our system, this reaches its most obvious manifestation in identity politics.
00:15:48.160So you have, you know, everyone's an American, 340 million of us are Americans, but certain
00:15:53.920Americans get to use words the rest of us don't use.
00:15:57.220get to break laws the rest of us have to abide by there are separate books not all of us are judged0.68
00:16:04.600by the same set of standards and that is inherently immoral it's obviously unfair it makes a mockery
00:16:12.740of the idea of citizenship and it's corrosive of the social fabric if you think your neighbor is
00:16:17.920getting a special deal by definition you hate your neighbor if you want to make your children hate
00:16:22.480each other favor one over the other and they will never get along long after you're dead they'll
00:16:26.860hate each other and that's exactly what our leaders have done to us and why wouldn't they
00:16:30.920because they themselves are the beneficiaries of a separate set of books of a special deal
00:16:37.400and that of course is the whole point of the Epstein story it's not that he touched
00:16:41.980kids yes that's indescribably awful that's the worst crime but it's not the crime that
00:16:50.720destroys America the most quickly, this crime that destroys America, is the realization that
00:16:58.960the rest of us recently came to that no matter what Jeffrey Epstein and his friends did,
00:17:04.380they got away with. It was a completely separate standard for them. They were in a class,
00:17:10.300now known as the Epstein class, that didn't have to abide by the normal rules.
00:17:15.360and so people watching this could not escape the very human reaction well why am i playing along
00:17:23.160then why am i paying taxes why am i obeying the law i'm all in we're doing this for your elderly
00:17:30.360grandmother or for your grandchildren not yet born i'm obeying rules that i don't like they're
00:17:36.240inconvenient and expensive because everyone else is doing it we're all in this together guys
00:17:39.960but we're not and that's what we've learned but we were never all in it together not as long
00:17:49.740as the country was run by an oligarchy of course by definition there is no rule of law
00:17:55.620if certain people don't have to follow the law or even the standards the customs the mores don't
00:18:01.520apply to certain people so this is the core problem trump recognized it now how do you fix
00:18:08.560it well one of the ways you fix it is by letting everybody know what's been going on and you know
00:18:15.480there's a level on which it's really hard to know what the truth about anything is but a good first
00:18:20.600step is declassification and the only reason that the system has been allowed to grow to the extent
00:18:27.140that it has a seven trillion dollar annual budget for a system that does not represent or serve the
00:18:33.520citizens of this country the only reason that's been allowed to happen is because most people have
00:18:38.140no idea what the government is actually doing. And they don't know because what the government
00:18:44.960is actually doing is classified. And they've been allowed to skate for many decades, certainly since
00:18:51.320the beginning of the Cold War, on the idea that you can't know for national security reasons.
00:18:57.000And we can't tell you more than that. Sources and methods. And that is why, after all these
00:19:04.040many decades, we really don't know very much, certainly not the whole story, about pivotal
00:19:11.040moments in American or world history. 9-11, the anniversary is this week. We know, here's what we
00:19:20.080do know. We know that in the days before 9-11, there was a massive spike in options trading.
00:19:26.660People betting against airlines, turns out to be the two airlines involved in 9-11,
00:19:31.400betting against those and betting that the share price of certain defense contractors would rise
00:19:38.060so what does that tell you it tells you that some people had foreknowledge of 9-11
00:19:41.880and hope to profit from them were those members of al-qaeda well no they weren't how do we know
00:19:47.700they weren't well because the fbi told us they weren't well how would the fbi know that because
00:19:51.200the fbi found the identities of the people who are betting against the airlines and for the
00:19:57.160defense contractors which is to say the fbi discovered the identities of people who had
00:20:02.900foreknowledge of the most damaging and deadliest terror attack in american history more than 3 000
00:20:09.100people murdered and there were individuals who knew it was coming and they sought to get rich
00:20:14.400from that knowledge and the fbi has their identities what you say how do you know that
00:20:19.120because it's in the 9 11 report the one that was pre-written before the investigation
00:20:23.340And that was 25 years ago this week, and we still don't know who those people were.
00:20:30.240Now, why would the government, what conceivable reason would the government hide that from us?
00:20:37.780It's kind of hard to accept the propaganda around 9-11 until we get an answer to that question.
00:20:44.380But it's not just 9-11, it's everything.
00:20:47.280It's the Kennedy assassination 63 years later.
00:20:50.180it's the bobby kennedy assassination the mlk assassination and yes it's the crimes of mr
00:20:57.460jeffrey epstein so this is all a preamble to this next clip from donald trump now this is an
00:21:02.800interview that he did during the campaign with lex fridman who's a well-known interviewer and
00:21:07.620good interviewer actually asks simple straightforward questions and waits patiently
00:21:11.800for the answers and he asked trump directly are you going to declassify the epstein files and
00:21:16.240here's what trump said it's just very strange for a lot of people that uh the list of clients
00:21:22.400that went to the island has not been made public yeah it's it's very interesting isn't it probably
00:21:29.780will be by the way so if you're able to you'll be yeah i'd certainly take a look at it now
00:21:35.560kennedy's interesting because it's so many years ago you know they do that for danger too because
00:21:41.420you know, endangers certain people, et cetera, et cetera. So Kennedy is very different from
00:21:48.240the Epstein thing. But yeah, I'd be inclined to do the Epstein. I'd have no problem with it.0.91
00:21:54.700I'd have no problem with it. Well, of course, he's had a huge problem with it. And to this day,
00:21:58.600they haven't released a huge cache of Epstein files. Don't let them lie to you, they haven't.
00:22:03.840And those they did release were released because Congress passed a law demanding their release,
00:22:07.920But they have not released all the Epstein files.
00:22:10.580And by the way, if you look at the dates of the emails and documents in the first tranche of Epstein files, you will notice a trough, which is to say a dip.
00:22:24.900So apparently, from the analysis that we have seen, and we think it's real, the files that the U.S. government has not released pertaining to Epstein are around 9-11.
00:22:35.500now there are references a number of pretty tantalizingly interesting references to 9-11
00:22:40.940in the files that we do have but during the period before during and immediately after 9-11
00:22:46.780we don't have the files so why is that well no one will even answer the question of course
00:22:51.640so there's a promise who knows some people voted for trump on the basis of his promise to release
00:22:57.880the epstein files but the promise to make public what your government is doing in your name with
00:23:05.120your money, yes. A huge motivator for many people, not simply because they're curious about who
00:23:11.140actually killed Kennedy or his brother or about what Epstein was doing or how he got rich or
00:23:15.880wireless references to pizza. What was that? Pizza and grape soda? Jeffrey Epstein doesn't
00:23:20.420look like a guy who's eaten a lot of pizza or consumed a lot of grape soda. How many billionaires
00:23:24.040drink grape soda? Zero. Not one billionaire has ever had a sip of grape soda. That's what we call
00:23:29.740an urban phenomenon. So no, they were not drinking grape soda. And Jeffrey Epstein didn't eat a lot
00:23:34.040of pizza. And, you know, any pizza eater in this country can tell you that guy, and I'm among them,
00:23:39.940that guy did not eat a lot of pizza. So like, what was that? And those were text messages and
00:23:46.420emails to people who are still around. You can Google them. How many of them have been hauled
00:23:51.060into DOJ just to answer simple questions? Like, what were you talking about? You prescribed
00:23:56.200Epstein an erectile dysfunction drug and then said, let's meet for pizza and grape soda. What
00:24:00.620what was that because it sounds like something kind of creepy maybe illegal sounds like you're
00:24:05.860speaking in code how many of those people have been called into doj zero because they're not
00:24:12.680the criminals all of a sudden people who express thought crimes about israel are the criminals
00:24:17.260and the doj basically just exists to like hunt anyone who disapproves of the actions of the
00:24:22.980government of israel that's basically what the doj does at this point and they'll tell you that
00:24:27.260by the way, shaking down American universities, not for discrimination against American students.
00:24:32.860And they do a lot of that to this day. Try to get in as like a white Methodist from Kansas.0.51
00:24:38.500Try to get into Yale. Perfect SAT score. Good luck, pal. But if you think that Israel is an0.99
00:24:45.000apartheid state or from the river to the sea is like an expression of your views, then you're in
00:24:49.820trouble. So that's what DOJ does. But they've spent no time trying to answer obvious questions
01:07:52.480that china got full representation in the legislative branch of the u.s government
01:07:58.380people would look a sconce well there'd probably be an arrest warrant issued for you if you said
01:08:03.920something like that and probably deservedly so but ted cruz just said it out loud i'm here to
01:08:11.300serve israel and he has done his best limited by you know his natural limitations but he's tried
01:08:18.440hard to serve Israel. And that's why there's probably never been a pointless war that Ted
01:08:23.960Cruz hasn't endorsed. Ted Cruz is exactly the guy Trump ran against in name in 2016 and in spirit
01:08:32.700in 2024. And yet fast forward two years, is anything you just heard Ted Cruz say, is anything
01:08:40.480Ted Cruz says every day on Twitter, materially different from the policies of the Trump
01:08:47.280administration oh that's not fair that's not fair you say oh really okay then tonight tonight right
01:08:53.660now actually as we speak is the beginning of the midterm republican convention which is an event
01:09:00.260in texas held for the next two days by the republican party to gin up support and enthusiasm
01:09:05.680and of course money for the midterm election efforts of the republican party and the speaker
01:09:11.380list is absolutely fascinating it's online and you should take a look at it but on that speaker list
01:09:16.240Guess who? Ted Cruz. How many people, how many Republican primary voters in this last election, 2024, would have imagined that less than two years into his term, Donald Trump would be asking Ted Cruz to speak at his convention?
01:09:37.800That Ted Cruz would be the voice of the Trump administration and the Republican Party.
01:09:42.900Because in addition to his many other titles, Donald Trump is the head of the Republican Party.
01:09:49.020And of course, he has veto power over the speaker's list.
01:09:52.560He can have anyone he wants or no one at all.