00:00:00.000Rob Ford is an example. Obviously, in America, Donald Trump is an example of someone who's just
00:00:04.300so different than what people had seen in the past. So when you say you want politics done
00:00:08.700differently, those are people doing things very differently. I gave conservative examples,
00:00:12.580but there's left-wing examples too of people like AOC or Bernie Sanders who do stuff very different
00:00:18.480than what the more establishment figures do. So that's kind of what different can mean. Very
00:00:24.400different. Not just, oh, you're going to decrease taxes by 7%. Well, I'm going to decrease them by
00:00:28.9207.5. I mean that's that's not different. All right Anthony five votes in five weeks so
00:00:41.060we're into it now going into October and election time is here so let me run through it with you
00:00:47.460Quebec October 5th BC municipal October 17th BC provincial October 24th the new snap election that
00:00:56.560uh premier eb called ontario municipal uh election on october 26 manitoba municipal election on
00:01:04.960october 28th and pei november 2nd new brunswick of course already had their vote on may 11th and
00:01:14.560this year and nova scotia's municipal vote was october 24 newfoundland's pc majority was on october
00:01:24.00014th 2025 alberta's election was in 2025 and saskatchewan in november 24 so so but we're into
00:01:34.300it we got lots of voting going on in october right i don't know what's it used to be like i look back
00:01:40.560when i was younger and i think elections were things that only occurred like rarely yeah um you
00:01:45.680know i guess that's the passage of time when you're a kid or whatnot but maybe it's also social media
00:01:49.740now we're attentive to the fact we we know there's a bc election going on even though it doesn't it
00:01:54.140doesn't impact my daily life here in toronto but we're kind of inundated and we almost feel the
00:01:58.220energy of these elections all across the country these days oh yeah some some stats you know how
00:02:03.260i love stats 6 663 candidates for about 2 800 positions across 414 municipalities those are
00:02:13.740are good odds one in three i should have signed up for half those things i was shocked but i'm
00:02:19.740always shocked 400 acclaimed 104 heads of council and 14 entire councils meaning about five percent
00:02:28.940of the municipalities will hold no vote yeah so which is interesting so these are just people who
00:02:35.420walk in no one's contesting the election in their area so it's usually incumbents yeah popular
00:02:41.980incumbent and someone doesn't want to run against them but uh but yeah happens in all municipalities
00:02:47.100just by that nomination deadline only one person signed up so oh you don't have to campaign you win
00:02:51.980yeah turnouts traditionally have fallen so as we talked about on another show the the number
00:02:57.660of people voted has fallen substantially um and you know that that's no surprise anywhere as we
00:03:04.300go into this election or these multiple elections across the country a very quick favor before we
00:03:09.580continue a large percentage of you who watch or listen to tpl media every week aren't subscribed
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00:03:37.100you now back to the show so the big ones that we're getting all the highlights so let's talk
00:03:41.900about them for a minute because then we'll bounce around the country for a few minutes and just we
00:03:46.700won't hit them all today but i just wanted to highlight a few of course i woke up this morning
00:03:51.900and the poll that was out from canada pulse insights is still having olivia chow ahead 51
00:03:59.900to 36 against brad bradford chris alexander still isn't really coming up they're holding
00:04:06.300at about nine percent um and then the others are at seven percent the other one millions of other
00:04:12.220people who put their name in but but yeah so it looks like that is tightening up a little but
00:04:17.660not a lot yeah you know in in mayoral elections and in toronto traditionally there's a massive
00:04:23.420incumbent advantage there's there's not really examples of an incumbent losing uh ever since
00:04:28.460toronto became a mega city so this is sort of the the situation the challengers find themselves in
00:04:33.660and just big advantage uh to olivia chow almost for that reason it's kind of kind of caked into
00:04:39.340the system the the leading opponent brad bradford's working hard uh to prevail maybe he'll close that
00:04:44.540gap but uh yeah it's that huge municipal incumbent advantage well it's interesting because the
00:04:51.340majority of torontonians say it's time for a new mayor so when they did the poll i dug in i like
00:04:57.660to go back i like to look at these polls and i said okay so it's polling 51 to 34. i'm gonna you
00:05:03.580know uh sorry uh chris alexander i'm gonna leave you on the side for a minute let's just talk the
00:05:09.980two you know leading candidates bradford and chow so it's 51 34 is how it's pulling but then when
00:05:16.620they do the polls more than the majority of torontonians are believing we need a new mayor
00:05:21.740so there's a disconnect here right there's a when they ask the question who you're going to elect for
00:05:25.740elect, it actually changes significantly. And when they do an all voter poll, it actually
00:05:34.320ends up at 38.25. So decided voters, it's actually 51.34. But then when they actually
00:05:42.040talk to everyone who does the poll, it actually tightens up to 38.25. So I thought that was
00:05:47.560interesting. And then with the majority, when they ask them, you know, would you like a new
00:05:55.740mayor? The majority says yes. So it's very interesting the way the poll shakes out in this
00:06:00.380case. This cognitive dissonance is pretty common. It's like you say to people, do you want all these
00:06:05.740free things for government to give you? Yes, I do. And then you put, well, would you pay $10 more
00:06:10.240taxes for all this free stuff? No, I would not. Yeah, 100% no. We see this stuff a lot and how
00:06:15.960numbers don't always match up and make sense. Yeah. Residents are divided. So 46% say Toronto
00:06:24.260is going in the right direction and 54% say we're on the wrong track. So that's very interesting
00:06:30.980when you go through it. And one thing that's so important, Paul, is what they call in politics,
00:06:36.220GOTV, get out the vote. Of that catchment, who are actually the people motivated to get out and vote?
00:06:42.060is it the people who say there should be change or is it the people who say no i love olivia chow
00:06:47.420and how well do the different candidates do identifying their people and saying oh come
00:06:51.180on we need you to come out and support because we can see gaps between that too oh i thought
00:06:55.740everyone wanted change but then you go oh no actually we didn't get changed this time around
00:06:59.820and a lot of it is you know the mechanics of whether folks come out maybe the people who say
00:07:04.300oh i'm i'm sick of these politicians they're just gonna stay home and watch tv yeah not go out and
00:07:08.780vote yeah which is sad we've talked about before and you know i i hit on this one i before the show
00:07:14.860i was just going through getting ready looking at some of the contested very uh close races and
00:07:21.500of course mississauga popped up so i was looking at mississauga um and it was very interesting
00:07:28.300because when you look at the polling on this it actually is coming out very interesting the two
00:07:33.660biggest of course the two biggest issues in mississauga being a bedroom uh bedroom community
00:07:38.860is affordability and cost of living that makes pretty much makes sense uh followed by uh crime
00:07:46.220and public safety so you know one and two i think you pretty much have that everywhere you go across
00:07:52.620canada um but they're really now coming out and saying that they want uh they do uh so if i look
00:08:02.220at the question is our mayor and city council are out of touch with what residents want and need
00:08:07.340agree or disagree so 24 said they agree strongly 41 agree somewhat so that is 65 agree that the
00:08:16.700mayor and council are out of touch with what people want disagree somewhat is 30 and disagree
00:08:23.100strongly is five so it's very interesting how that poll so but then when they ask about whether the
00:08:29.900mayor's doing a good job um they actually uh support uh care carolyn parish uh and what she's
00:08:39.180doing for mayor so uh 57 said she's doing a good job 43 said a bad job um and then city council
00:08:49.820uh they said 61 saying a good job 39 uh doing a bad job so it bounced back and forth but you have
00:08:57.900alvin uh alvin techo you you have uh bonnie crombie and you have carolyn paris there a lot of people
00:09:05.980are talking about alvin coming up the middle on this one so this is a very interesting story
00:09:10.460because quite frankly um you might have two pretty uh dominant uh nominee nom uh former mayor and
00:09:19.500mayor uh being uh split their votes being split by a new candidate yeah interesting to see that
00:09:30.140unfold i guess not too surprising because bonnie crombie and carolyn parish both former mayors i
00:09:36.060mean carolyn's the incumbent so current mayor uh strong recognition there uh maybe people want to
00:09:41.420see something different though so they'll have a huge advantage being able to bring out votes
00:09:45.180they've won before but then if people are also feeling cynical about the whole thing wanting
00:09:50.860change maybe uh alvin is the change candidate and the question is is this a change election it's
00:09:56.140kind of funny people say oh i'm dissatisfied with all of council but then they still say i'm going
00:10:00.540to vote for for the incumbents in part because that could be they're not actually seeing someone
00:10:05.100who represents change they're not seeing someone who is a departure from that vision and if that
00:10:09.820was presented to them maybe they would go with that person right exactly you know that's the
00:10:13.660toronto case really if uh when you look at the polling for the toronto case they want a new mayor
00:10:18.140they just don't have a candidate they want to vote for that's different than olivia right now so uh
00:10:22.780so that's really where it seems like we're at i think we've seen in the past uh you know rob
00:10:28.540ford is an example obviously in america donald trump is an example of someone who's just so
00:10:32.860different than what people had seen in the past so when you say you want politics done differently
00:10:37.260those are people doing things very differently i gave conservative examples but there's left-wing
00:10:41.340examples too of, you know, people like AOC or Bernie Sanders who do stuff very different than
00:10:46.920what the more establishment figures do. So, you know, that's kind of what different can mean.
00:10:52.280Very different. Not just, oh, you're going to decrease taxes by 7%. Well, I'm going to decrease
00:10:56.740them by 7.5. I mean, that's not different. Well, now it's interesting because we talked about this
00:11:04.060a few weeks ago and it's interesting. And I'm going to dive into this for a couple of seconds.
00:11:08.700all these actually um a lot of these candidates now are actually talking about freezes or
00:11:15.160elimination of fees or services so i know brad bradford yesterday was talking about water
00:11:21.100and decreasing water bills and eliminating uh transfer taxes real estate transfer taxes
00:11:26.940they're starting to talk about property tax fees it's very interesting i know a lot of promises
00:11:31.360get made at election time i get that i'm not naive to the fact that you know i want to get in and
00:11:36.740when i get in i actually change everything you know back to the way it was but it's interesting
00:11:43.460now that you're seeing people revert back to zero percent property tax no land transfer so
00:11:51.460so you know when things are getting tougher and we're seeing affordability issues they're coming
00:11:56.820back to people saying you know don't worry we're not gonna add additional costs but no one's asking
00:12:02.580the question i guess anthony where is the money going to come from so as i'm listening to all this
00:12:06.740And it came out yesterday, I think in Toronto, I've heard it and across the country in different regions so far as well, the West Coast, you know, particularly, but they're coming out with different campaign promises, you know, let's get rid of property tax, let's get rid of Human Rights Commission, they're making all these crazy comments, but they're not telling us what they would cut.