True Patriot Love - November 03, 2026


US Midterms： Are Betting Markets Beating the Polls？

He Quit His Government Job—and Fooled Penn & Teller ft. Wes Barker

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20 minutes

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3,671

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110

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Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 now the u.s midterms taking place on this tuesday november 3rd is not just about who's going to be
00:00:10.980 elected democrat or republican right now it's about who's going to make the most money placing
00:00:15.440 bets on it whether it's calci in the u.s or my own draft kings app in canada you can make money
00:00:21.940 on betting who's going to win mike wickson uh this may be the only way that you pick a winner
00:00:26.120 to be honest with you in this midterm.
00:00:29.160 This is sort of a different approach to it.
00:00:31.360 Yeah, we could be talking about the midterms all day
00:00:33.020 and everybody is doing that.
00:00:34.680 But one of the things that I think is,
00:00:36.280 I think exemplary polling, if I may,
00:00:39.520 because I'm not a huge fan of polls.
00:00:41.160 But when people go to a site,
00:00:43.880 put their money down and make a bet,
00:00:46.340 that to me is real genuine polling.
00:00:48.340 Sorry to the pollsters.
00:00:50.680 And my apologies to the gambling community
00:00:53.380 for citing them as a verifiable poll.
00:00:55.820 If you look at Calci and Pauly Market, but say I'll take, for example, Calci, the number of money wagered in Texas, whether or not James Tallarico will be the Democrat senator, is staggering.
00:01:09.080 So you're not just seeing the numbers by the amount of money put down on the candidate to give you an indication how serious the people are that this individual might or might not win.
00:01:18.660 So, okay, let's take a look at what the calls are so far on this, okay?
00:01:22.840 So Calci and Pauly Market, they're talking about who wins the House.
00:01:27.240 It's one of the big bets on there.
00:01:29.280 And they've got it pegged right now, the Democrats, at 95%, I believe.
00:01:33.460 It might have changed since I looked at this.
00:01:35.160 On DraftKings in Canada, the Democrats are minus 2,500, heavy, heavy favorites
00:01:40.480 to take control of the House.
00:01:42.100 As it stands now, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats
00:01:46.700 to take control of the House.
00:01:48.000 and they're well in position to have
00:01:50.080 maybe more than that, so they'd have a majority
00:01:52.320 in the House.
00:01:53.540 By the way, Kelsey and Pauly Market
00:01:56.020 are only like a point or two off of each other
00:01:58.380 on both.
00:02:00.140 Something to be said for that, Mike.
00:02:02.320 Right? This is why I think it's
00:02:04.300 real polling.
00:02:05.580 They say over 56 million
00:02:08.400 Americans. 56 have
00:02:10.200 already voted prior to
00:02:12.200 today. The lineups in Texas were remarkable
00:02:14.380 in the early voting process
00:02:16.460 just to turn out in that one state. 0.95
00:02:21.340 Look at Michigan with Abdul El-Sayed.
00:02:23.740 He's well in position to win his race, no problem.
00:02:27.820 So the Americans are taking this very seriously.
00:02:30.420 And as someone pointed out, when you piss off Americans,
00:02:34.780 when you do something like Trump did,
00:02:37.400 and they can't afford to put gas in their vehicle,
00:02:39.800 they're struggling to feed their families.
00:02:42.100 That's when they're like, that's it.
00:02:43.840 If you look back to the team party.
00:02:45.600 That's it.
00:02:45.980 i'm placing a bet i'm placing a bet and make it up so i'm making a vote placing a bet that's right
00:02:50.460 you know that's the american way you know if calci and polymarket were smart they would set up little
00:02:54.860 kiosks right there and people could make their vote yeah here just tap here okay so there's four
00:02:59.740 possible outcomes according to calci uh the probabilities are this right yeah democrats win
00:03:05.340 both the house and the senate they they figure 70 that's a possibility that's you know that's high
00:03:10.220 Yeah, that's crazy. The Dem House, Democratic House, Republican Senate, 24.5% is their odds on that.
00:03:20.160 So that, if it turns over, is that great bet? That'll pay nice.
00:03:23.900 See, that's one I would bet. I would bet Democrats clean up on the House, but it's still a very slight margin for Republicans in the Senate.
00:03:32.220 You need to make this bet because it's going to pay big. It's only 24.5% likelihood.
00:03:36.180 uh republicans win both 6.4 percent likelihood and uh republican house and democratic senate
00:03:43.060 0.5 percent boy oh boy you could clean up on that if there's a if there's an implosion at the
00:03:48.380 at the polls now mike this is part of a bigger sense of the way the world has evolved
00:03:53.160 i can remember our last federal election that poly market was tracking poly evan carney and
00:04:01.340 And although we could only have market in the poly of market, but legally we couldn't make a poly market bet, but you could follow the betting trends of poly market and what's happening.
00:04:11.880 So this is almost real time polling because polling is the Wicks and Lang polling group contact people and then the next day, blah, blah, blah.
00:04:20.780 Well, this is happening in real time right now during the midterms.
00:04:24.160 and you can click on state-by-state, race-by-race,
00:04:27.980 congressperson-by-congressperson,
00:04:29.920 and see how it's trending, who's got the lead,
00:04:33.240 how much money's been laid down.
00:04:34.700 It's pretty funny.
00:04:35.640 I mean, put your money where your mouth is.
00:04:37.320 This is the future of politics in America,
00:04:40.280 and we'd be naive, Mike,
00:04:41.800 if we don't think this is not coming to Canada.
00:04:44.120 Hey, before we go any further,
00:04:45.460 please hit the subscribe button right now.
00:04:48.040 If you want the raw debates,
00:04:49.700 the full uncut conversations you won't see here,
00:04:52.080 head straight to tplmedia.ca subscribe and lock in your membership trust me you don't want to
00:04:57.760 miss what happens behind the paywall all right back to the show well the pollsters are now
00:05:03.560 getting closer to what we're seeing on calci and polymark and even on draft kings because i noticed
00:05:08.600 over the last couple of days
00:05:10.240 you finally we can participate in the uh in the u.s elections just the way we need to
00:05:18.100 But the polls were really different.
00:05:22.040 This is where polls, I think, are really funny.
00:05:24.880 Depending on, and this is an interesting thing.
00:05:27.260 The first time Trump won and became the president,
00:05:31.120 leading up to that, he instructed, or his campaign,
00:05:35.780 instructed the people that were diehard supporters of Trump
00:05:40.480 that if they were polled to say they were going to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
00:05:46.060 and so now the polls came out
00:05:48.780 and they really evened out the Trump-Hillary thing
00:05:51.900 so now it looked at one point like Hillary was going to clean up
00:05:55.620 and the opposition vote came in and took her out for Trump
00:06:00.480 he used the polls so they are malleable
00:06:02.940 so much so Mike that a lot of people post-election 2016 admitted
00:06:07.180 that Hillary had such a lead I didn't even bother voting
00:06:10.760 because there was no way she would lose
00:06:12.460 millions of Americans admitted that
00:06:15.020 Okay, so now, if you told me that I'm going to change the odds by lying in a poll,
00:06:21.340 even if it was a $5 bet, even if it was a-
00:06:24.160 Five bucks is five bucks right now.
00:06:25.540 Even if it was a five-
00:06:26.140 That's coffee and a muffin at Tim's.
00:06:27.600 Oh, we wish.
00:06:28.660 It is.
00:06:29.380 I buy it every day.
00:06:30.260 Okay, duly noted.
00:06:31.340 Okay, that's my new diet.
00:06:32.440 Thank you, Jim.
00:06:33.460 But even if we just had a $5 bet on our actual outcome opinion,
00:06:38.920 it may not be our desire, but it's what we think we should put our money on.
00:06:43.920 no poll is going to change my opinion on that because i've locked in my money i put my money
00:06:50.260 where my mouth is and i'm expecting a payback even if it's only five dollars that's the legitimate
00:06:55.640 and would i vote the way that i bet i see that good question i don't know but this is where
00:07:02.260 the evolution of elections and people taking control of their future where it's playing out
00:07:08.340 in real time here we are the u.s midterms people are ignoring the big prognosticators and the
00:07:14.960 experts and no no no this is how i feel this is how i'm voting i'm going to make a bet on
00:07:19.900 culture or poly market you can watch the trend so people now are going to their polling station
00:07:25.360 making their bets and coming home and looking at the trend seeing whether or not they're going to
00:07:29.220 win okay so now i take a look at a group of people right this is a terrible analogy here's a metaphor
00:07:35.860 nobody wanted i look at a group of people and i and i say who are the fruit eaters and who are
00:07:40.820 the cake eaters over here okay yeah and if i don't mind that if i put a cake over here
00:07:46.180 how many of those people do i bet will actually go to the cake right you know but i'm not going
00:07:50.420 to go to say i'm not coming up to you in that crowd and saying you're a bit of a cake eater
00:07:54.020 i know you need fruit but you're a bit of a cake eater no i'll place my bet according to that but
00:07:59.140 but I'll behave differently for social reasons on the other side of it.
00:08:02.980 So the bet and vote combination is not an assured thing.
00:08:08.040 Okay, so this is something a pollster realized,
00:08:12.080 that one user, Polymarket, dropped $294,000 on a seven-leg midterm parlay.
00:08:19.780 So like betting different hockey games and football games, dropped $294,000.
00:08:25.520 Midterm elections, Americans, this is of a few hours ago,
00:08:28.780 they have wagered two billion dollars in prediction markets and it's climbing this has become a big
00:08:35.020 big thing mike it's so much bigger than elections well but it is so if if you that's a lot of money
00:08:41.020 so how do we turn this into our new election process uh some of the side bets made me laugh
00:08:45.820 jim and tell me uh democrats win the popular vote uh for the house race is 88 that's a that's an
00:08:52.220 easy side yeah yeah but this one got me a senate race is decided by one percentage point oh now i
00:08:59.300 would take a bet on that one of them that being happening 36 uh is the uh yeah it could be texas
00:09:06.380 right right so okay well well you know what nick if you don't mind making a note of some of the
00:09:11.200 bets we need to make when we're done this that would be great we'll chart this uh some of the
00:09:15.760 related bets trump's job approval on november 7th uh is greater than or sorry less than 45
00:09:22.240 that's another one i would bet on for sure guys are posting on their phone their 106 parlay and
00:09:29.680 they're tracking in real time which races are winning so this is like betting at the the march
00:09:34.840 madness ncaa basketball that's how they're treating the midterm elections once again maybe not how they
00:09:39.700 voted but they're definitely engaged in the election now it's like watching sports yeah i
00:09:43.880 kind of want to watch the next jays game but if i put 10 bucks on it i'm watching every inning of
00:09:48.160 that game so this is the latest from uh election day polling as we're talking right now democrats
00:09:54.820 52 seats of the senate from the betting market to 48 republicans the house 241 democrats to 194
00:10:02.800 republican so that's a big big number hey are we betting on new tariffs by the way can we i think
00:10:09.980 there's that no no wait a second i thought carney said they had a nice phone call trump the other
00:10:14.140 day were chit-chatting on a nice sunday did you notice that they took like 20 uh tariffs away in
00:10:20.220 the last couple weeks quietly very but then they added 100 new ones but apparently they had a great
00:10:26.140 talk that's what carney said oh that's fantastic and they're talking again so i right now i don't
00:10:31.180 remember talking to him maybe we had a phone call i'm not sure i'm in the midterms i right we got
00:10:36.540 to the point now with kalshi with polymarket with everything else mike there literally is
00:10:41.340 nothing you cannot bet on you're betting on whether or not a congressperson from central
00:10:47.100 michigan will win or not okay hold on here's one the u.s announces new tariffs on major trading
00:10:53.180 partners by january 31st 2027 56 that's an that's a bet i would take two because i wonder if he's
00:11:00.460 He's going to calm down after the midterm.
00:11:01.800 No, he's going to be worse.
00:11:03.840 Mike, he's going to be catatonic after the numbers come in.
00:11:09.300 He's going to be like...
00:11:10.600 I don't care about the midterms.
00:11:11.900 I'm proceeding.
00:11:12.560 I'm veto, man.
00:11:13.320 That's the other thing I noticed.
00:11:14.180 He's like Gofield in a James Bond movie with his deranged cat in his lap
00:11:18.600 pounding the table.
00:11:19.580 Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
00:11:20.840 One of the bets that's missing here is when he vetoes the first bill.
00:11:28.060 Oh, see, real quick.
00:11:29.500 so this is one thing canadians may not realize so the democrats they have control of the house
00:11:35.000 and the senate slam a bill through he has presidential veto powers and the prediction
00:11:41.020 is he'll be so pissed off at losing everything in such a foul mood he'll just veto everything
00:11:47.480 even if it benefits americans just to prove that he's still in charge my fear is that he finds a
00:11:52.340 way to enact uh some laws that give him extraordinary powers and i don't even want to
00:11:56.260 breathe what that might be or the pardons at the end the famous infamous presidential pardons right
00:12:02.600 who knows what's going to happen well he's going to have to start with all his family
00:12:06.440 yeah you know okay it's normally it's just who he won't who am i jr he's not enough of him he won't
00:12:15.180 get a pardon done dad dad don's got a big opinion he'll be fine yeah uh but i can see uh you know
00:12:22.040 Who's the pardon list, Mr. President?
00:12:24.440 Just take the same list I used for my Christmas presents.
00:12:27.380 It's all your family.
00:12:27.940 But scratch out Don Jr.
00:12:29.180 Take out Don off the top.
00:12:30.480 He got a nice Christmas present last year.
00:12:32.340 He doesn't need a pardon.
00:12:34.080 This is wild.
00:12:34.880 Back in March, the Democratic Senate odds started to surge on Calci.
00:12:41.340 Oh.
00:12:42.000 So March 10th, it was at 44%.
00:12:44.460 September 18th, 57%.
00:12:46.620 October 23rd, 68%.
00:12:48.920 And November 1st, 71%.
00:12:50.940 Now, as of today, 72.5% the odds on.
00:12:56.220 Oh, I should mention CoolBet Canada, Oslo.
00:12:58.680 You can lay big money on Democrats.
00:13:00.860 So there are a number of Canadian betting apps
00:13:02.700 who are taking serious money on this thing.
00:13:04.960 You know, it's weird to me that Canada is allowing that.
00:13:07.440 We seem so upset about gambling and how we're going to do it.
00:13:10.540 Yes, we've got a lot of online gambling,
00:13:12.360 but they're very consistent.
00:13:14.020 You know, sports, casino, you know, slots playing and things like that.
00:13:19.560 But really, to enter this market as a Canadian company, I'm a little shocked by that.
00:13:25.340 But this is the whole thing, you know, Americans were crying wolf about.
00:13:29.680 We were interfering with their midterms, right?
00:13:31.580 The election interference.
00:13:33.160 But they don't seem to care if people are wagering on it.
00:13:36.060 Now, what do you think is interfering with election?
00:13:38.860 A few comments from a Canadian politician or people wagering tens of billions.
00:13:43.040 What am I? Tens of billions.
00:13:44.420 Billions of dollars in Calci and Pauly market on the outcome of an election.
00:13:48.100 on the outcome but not their vote right forget because they want to win the money they want the
00:13:52.600 money do you not think that's an interference mike uh okay here are the key takeaways that
00:13:56.680 the cal sheet guys give me all right uh markets give democrats 94 to 95 it's not a good bet jim
00:14:04.000 chance of house and senate 71 to 73 percent so a democratic sweep which is both chambers
00:14:10.960 is priced right now at 70 percent really i think we make that bet i would make that bet
00:14:16.860 senate odds have climbed sharply from 44 march to 72 as i pointed out and traders are also betting
00:14:24.460 on turnout trump's approval tariffs and even another government shutdown which is a possibility
00:14:31.980 a very quick favor before we continue a large percentage of you who watch or listen to tpl
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00:14:58.460 nothing keeps you informed so thank you now back to the show so think about the arc from march to
00:15:05.580 present day yeah the the price of diesel gas food like affordability he's gone to war inflation is
00:15:13.340 now clicking at about 3.7 percent in america yeah we're freaked out here and we're in the twos
00:15:19.260 or low absolutely and they're like they're pushing for jim you raise a good point and now how do you
00:15:24.540 feel about the president addressing that with 20 minutes on the architecture of washington dc uh
00:15:29.260 yesterday and then when someone asked him about people can't feed themselves he started talking
00:15:33.260 about rehabilitating a golf course right to pga level and don't forget we might rename the
00:15:39.020 reflecting pool to the trump reflecting don't don't don't print that that's a joke but so think
00:15:44.380 about the the nonsense 20 plus minutes of just incoherent meandering about the reflection pool
00:15:52.300 at golf courses and people like i can't put enough gas in my truck to get through work this week i
00:15:58.780 can't afford it i don't know if i can afford food forget christmas and thanksgiving i'm just thinking
00:16:03.740 about the next week this is how they're voting today jim i don't want you to worry i think we
00:16:08.140 we've got some safe bets here oh go good okay i'm gonna go and get some ham we may not like the
00:16:14.880 outcome but uh polymarket and calciades are uh really all everybody's talking about today by
00:16:20.820 the way the one the one that i thought was a really weird vote was u.s voter turnout uh is
00:16:27.240 less than 50 it was one of the uh one of the bets you could take well i don't know if i take that
00:16:31.780 because when you've got 56 million people voting in advanced polls to me it's going to be a pretty
00:16:36.780 strong voter turnout i actually think that crushes this bet now yeah to be honest with you but the
00:16:42.200 advance poll numbers are staggering you might want to get in on that one it's 78 percent uh is still
00:16:47.280 the likelihood on that one so you might you might get a turnaround in your favor on that if america
00:16:52.340 gets out there and does what they need to for gambling i mean for society wait a sec you don't
00:16:58.100 think tucker carlson and other pundits are making bets on the side on what's going to happen or not
00:17:04.140 happen oh i've got a i've got a bet that nobody put down here that you and i can have what what
00:17:08.940 what uh the outcome of the election will lead tucker carlson to go
00:17:17.420 90 odds this is uh this is democracy now in 2026 but i mean people are making jokes about it yeah
00:17:24.700 they're making bets on it they're so fed up with the status quo and how things are running right
00:17:30.220 now in america they're like for god's sakes can we get someone to get us out of iran they just
00:17:36.380 bloody bombed iran yesterday again yeah with with force with force so how am i supposed to pay
00:17:44.700 heating oil and diesel and gas and how much is food going to cost my family this week and then
00:17:50.940 god forbid we had another show what if they get hit by cyber attack in europe dozens of countries
00:17:57.260 got hit and i don't know how much food was ruined overnight when they raised the temperature of the
00:18:02.460 freezers to 50 celsius 120 fahrenheit imagine if that happens in america right now ask you
00:18:08.380 a frightening question yeah at what point under cyber attack does trump say i'm enacting the war
00:18:13.820 measures act well what if they did that to american grocery stores that would be pushing
00:18:19.180 over the edge that puts him in full control of the country again right right oh boy so you're
00:18:26.540 not suggesting that one of his nefarious buddies in these sketchy countries that he seems to have
00:18:32.140 great uh affinity for would institute a cyber attack and ruin a bunch of grocery stores have
00:18:38.300 every american freak out and then he just institutes this new law and takes over again
00:18:43.580 uh let's see mike that's awfully the gambling oil of you the gambling sites say 75 percent likelihood
00:18:50.700 really no i just made that but it is terrifying i mean wait a second well you think about like
00:18:56.700 that's something he would do and the last two weeks the amount of cyber attacks around the
00:19:01.020 world are actually staggering they're so he would have every excuse in the world to justify what's
00:19:06.140 going on here if a he'd have to find out who did it which is not going to be easy no um i mean i
00:19:13.740 just think about the show you and paul did about the osap scandal they had over 3 000 fake osap
00:19:19.660 applications from one ip address 3000 plus i mean that's happening right here in ontario yeah so i
00:19:27.900 how they would find the person that did this thing i don't know and even if they do the knee-jerk
00:19:32.540 reaction from the trump administration from a military standpoint i think would be justify
00:19:40.380 another means oh i have an image of peak hegseth in the pentagon with a tony montana pile of cocaine
00:19:48.140 sticking his face in hitting buttons ordering people to start launching tomahawk cruise missiles
00:19:53.340 where sir anywhere doesn't matter we're under attack under attack allegedly allegedly