Valuetainment - November 01, 2026


250 Employees, $22 BILLION： Kalshi CEO Reveals His Secret to Building an Empire

Is Kalshi Gambling？ Founder Explains the Business Model

Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

238.6

Word count

2,853

Sentence count

148

Harmful content

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 I read somewhere where for you, you had 150 people reporting to you.
00:00:03.220 Is that true?
00:00:03.940 Yeah, me and Luana.
00:00:04.860 How do you have 150 people reporting to you?
00:00:06.960 I work a lot.
00:00:07.740 I really do.
00:00:08.360 And I want to talk a little bit about this.
00:00:11.000 I know you talked a lot about this, but I believe in hard work.
00:00:14.460 I really believe in being committed to the thing and really believing it.
00:00:17.580 And the soul of an organization is going to be the founder at the end
00:00:19.580 because you're making the decisions.
00:00:21.300 I think I pretty much work like seven days a week and long hours.
00:00:26.380 I think it's scalable because we have a lot of tools now to scale companies,
00:00:29.860 especially with AI.
00:00:30.660 Like I think companies over time,
00:00:33.580 the traditional structure is you have a boss
00:00:35.680 who has reports and those reports are bosses
00:00:38.140 for other reports and you go down
00:00:39.440 in a tree-like structure.
00:00:42.080 And then that layer in the middle
00:00:43.440 is what we call the management layer.
00:00:45.460 And you know, when people complain all the time,
00:00:46.800 what do they say?
00:00:47.180 The management layer is the worst.
00:00:49.080 They don't get things done.
00:00:50.160 It's why all innovation dies.
00:00:51.660 And why?
00:00:52.220 Because managers are in the business of politics.
00:00:57.840 No matter what,
00:00:58.540 when an industry gets big enough.
00:01:01.020 What you need is leadership.
00:01:02.460 And what is leadership?
00:01:03.100 It's like you point the vision
00:01:03.940 and communicate and motivate your people
00:01:05.360 to go and row in one direction.
00:01:07.880 And management is the thing
00:01:08.700 that like checks in on people all the time,
00:01:10.040 make sure they're done.
00:01:10.780 That whole thing, the checking in,
00:01:12.600 making sure something was done,
00:01:13.520 making sure it was not done,
00:01:14.260 guess what's very good at doing it right now?
00:01:16.800 Yeah.
00:01:18.280 It's very good at tracking and measuring
00:01:20.160 and like summarizing
00:01:21.260 and all these different things.
00:01:22.340 You don't need that massive management layer.
00:01:23.800 So I think organization
00:01:24.400 can be structured more as a circle over time
00:01:26.060 where founders and leaders
00:01:28.340 can like use AI to track a much greater number of people
00:01:31.500 than they could have in their brain beforehand.
00:01:34.300 And that's what we were trying to build at Kalshi.
00:01:35.680 We've been really very kind of at the front of using AI.
00:01:38.700 And that's what excites me, by the way.
00:01:40.240 We're a 250-people company now,
00:01:42.980 which is very small given the size of the company.
00:01:45.160 And I always say these young people are so much-
00:01:46.500 You're a $22 billion company with 350 people?
00:01:49.040 250, yeah.
00:01:50.340 250 people, that's it.
00:01:52.180 Yeah, we're actually the highest revenue
00:01:53.660 per employee company in the thing that might be the planet.
00:01:56.980 But that to me is the opportunity.
00:01:58.340 And I want more young people to really – you have all these tools now.
00:02:01.740 You can go and build things.
00:02:02.640 You can go do things.
00:02:03.860 And I want young people to trust themselves more and, like, if you have a good idea, put it out in the world.
00:02:08.640 You'll be surprised.
00:02:10.560 And you have a bad idea, put it out in the world and fail and learn how to make it better for next time, right?
00:02:14.600 And I think I worry that young people are not thinking about the world that way.
00:02:18.900 I think they're too negative, and I think it's very important.
00:02:20.480 Why do you think they're negative?
00:02:22.700 I think it's a little bit what we discussed.
00:02:24.140 I think a lot of people feel like that, you know, capitalism is pushing them out of the system.
00:02:26.980 and, you know, I mean, I grew up in Lebanon
00:02:28.960 and that stuff upsets me a little bit.
00:02:31.560 It saddens me because, like,
00:02:32.920 when I came to the country, I was so pumped.
00:02:34.380 Like, I was so excited, you know.
00:02:35.740 And I was born here, grew up in Lebanon.
00:02:37.120 My mom was always, go to America.
00:02:38.140 If you work hard, you're going to make it.
00:02:39.100 And, you know, you're the same thing, right?
00:02:40.260 Like, you build, you work hard,
00:02:42.000 you push yourself to your extreme
00:02:43.200 and you get rewarded.
00:02:44.200 It's a country that rewards you.
00:02:45.600 And I worry that a lot of people
00:02:46.420 don't believe that anymore.
00:02:48.220 Do you think they're right
00:02:49.060 or do you think they've been brainwashed?
00:02:50.360 Do you think they've given up?
00:02:51.440 Do you think the influence is from the outside to inside?
00:02:54.420 What do you think it is?
00:02:56.980 they think that right your feeling is it doesn't really matter what's causing it it's just the fact
00:03:02.120 that that's a bad thing we are where we are right and and so we got to fix it we got to figure out
00:03:06.120 ways of fixing it and i think that um you know uh to my feeling is like the fix is going to have to
00:03:13.080 be a way to educate and communicate to a lot of people that they can they don't they shouldn't
00:03:18.340 sit on the sidelines they shouldn't be on the sidelines they should jump into the game and
00:03:22.060 start playing and now with ai with all these tools it's so much easier to start playing
00:03:25.800 and start doing cool things right and and and you know you what's the process walk me through it so
00:03:30.600 let's just say uh the way you came up with the idea cal idea calcia you're in a meeting you're
00:03:35.960 like okay what if we did this what if we created these markets right and you read about what
00:03:40.100 happened in uh iowa and you read this book super forecast or whatever it was and super force which
00:03:45.000 by the way i looked at the book the book came out in 2016 you started calcia in 18 so what is the
00:03:51.100 lens to look at something and say i'm going to get into this industry i'm going to get into that
00:03:54.360 industry i my honest feeling and like look i'm a risk averse guy by the way i told you i'm a little 0.81
00:04:00.180 bit anxious and you know luana was it my co-founder is always more risk on she's she's faith-based
00:04:05.480 she likes to you know she believes that things are gonna she's the brazilian brazilian yeah yeah
00:04:09.460 she believes that things are gonna work out she pushes she pushes things right and and
00:04:12.700 it took me a while to really come to terms but my my the core thing is i really believe people
00:04:18.000 should just like follow their instincts and do the thing they really are like like childishly
00:04:23.160 excited about if you're childishly excited about something like everybody has a child in them i
00:04:27.100 don't think that ever expires some people ignore it because like oh i have to become an adult and
00:04:30.620 do all these different things but you don't you don't have to ignore it and like you should just
00:04:34.180 like follow the things that like you kind of you find yourself sometimes at night just reading about
00:04:38.740 it doesn't matter what it is it could be sports it could be i don't know some people are into like
00:04:43.140 reddit channels some people whatever it is that thing that like gets you going and you know you
00:04:47.640 you know you you start talking about it like when that thing that gets your friends to eye roll
00:04:52.020 when somebody brings it up
00:04:53.100 because they know
00:04:54.000 that you're going to
00:04:54.400 not stop talking
00:04:56.140 for another 45 minutes,
00:04:57.420 that's probably the thing
00:04:57.940 that you should work on.
00:04:59.660 I really believe that.
00:05:00.940 And people think too much
00:05:01.500 about how do I be successful,
00:05:02.640 et cetera.
00:05:03.200 You have the tools now
00:05:04.320 to imbue your personality
00:05:05.900 and your thing
00:05:06.540 on a lot of society.
00:05:08.480 And if you're excited
00:05:09.080 enough about something,
00:05:09.720 I think over time
00:05:10.140 you're going to bring
00:05:10.560 enough people on the journey.
00:05:11.660 When's your birthday?
00:05:12.800 May 7th, 96.
00:05:13.900 I was born in 96.
00:05:14.880 Okay.
00:05:15.600 And anime.
00:05:16.480 What role did anime play for you?
00:05:18.140 Oh, I love anime.
00:05:19.160 Tell me why.
00:05:19.880 I love, you know.
00:05:21.060 And is there a favorite one?
00:05:22.460 Is there one that you...
00:05:23.800 You know, I was like kind of a lot.
00:05:25.780 I mean, Dragon Ball, One Piece.
00:05:28.420 There's a lot of new ones.
00:05:29.400 I mean, I was like, you know, a nerd in high school.
00:05:32.980 So like a lot of nerds at the time, you know, it's funny.
00:05:34.560 Like a lot of people were like closeted anime watchers.
00:05:38.060 And now it's kind of cool because people are into Japanese culture
00:05:41.800 and it's become a cool thing.
00:05:43.020 So a lot of people that like I didn't know would watch when we were younger.
00:05:45.500 Now I realized we were all watching, but we never told each other
00:05:47.580 because, you know, you'd get bullied in recess if like you ever said that.
00:05:49.740 but I love it because there's something about it
00:05:51.680 the thing that I love the most about it
00:05:54.300 is there's sort of this notion of
00:05:55.800 all the characters have some unifying traits
00:05:57.860 which are on self-improvements
00:05:59.680 I always think
00:06:01.380 the people that do the best
00:06:03.060 that are essentially at the top of the food chain
00:06:05.660 and most of the animes
00:06:06.960 there's always this dynamic of
00:06:09.320 the main protagonist
00:06:11.140 and then the secondary protagonist
00:06:12.720 that's usually their arch rival or arch enemy
00:06:14.600 or their competitor
00:06:15.260 the main guy is usually mostly focused on himself
00:06:17.660 and getting better
00:06:18.480 He's always competing against himself.
00:06:19.780 He's always stressed about not achieving his full potential
00:06:21.920 and not doing enough versus what he's capable of.
00:06:25.300 And the second guy is the guy
00:06:26.480 who's trying to beat the main guy.
00:06:28.140 He's usually a little bit more envious,
00:06:29.560 more, you know, he's desiring what the main guy.
00:06:32.080 And the main guy, you know, always outperforms.
00:06:33.840 And there's always that foundational thing of like,
00:06:36.020 be the main guy, be the guy who's just pushing yourself.
00:06:39.320 Because if you push yourself and deliver the best you can,
00:06:42.140 you're probably gonna get somewhere.
00:06:42.980 And there's something neat about that.
00:06:44.260 It's a positive view of society.
00:06:45.420 You don't have to beat others to do your thing.
00:06:47.440 Just find your own path and beat yourself and keep beating yourself every week.
00:06:50.640 And if you do that for a long enough period of time, beautiful results will happen.
00:06:54.500 It really does.
00:06:55.500 What's your, you go from zero, you're at Goldman, a little bit at Citadel in Chicago or here?
00:07:01.900 Probably in Chicago.
00:07:02.920 I was in New York, actually.
00:07:03.860 Oh, New York.
00:07:04.400 Okay, so New York, Citadel.
00:07:05.500 But all these as an intern.
00:07:06.720 I never really had a full time job.
00:07:07.900 So at what point these guys watch Jiu-Jitsu Kaizen?
00:07:11.420 I watch Jiu-Jitsu Kaizen, yeah.
00:07:13.540 My son's gone through, like, he's like.
00:07:15.560 Oh, what are they saying?
00:07:16.200 so jjk is all he talks about and i love i love between two of them this and another one uh what
00:07:23.600 is the main character's name and gojo yeah well but gojo is the same what i just described by the
00:07:28.420 way never cares about beating others he just like cares about being just beating himself when he
00:07:32.840 sits with me explains it to me for 45 minutes when i tell you the way he breaks up right yeah he says
00:07:39.580 there's this one character that he cuts himself and you know he's able to cut you and it's fascinating
00:07:44.620 He lights up when he talks.
00:07:45.560 He got everybody recruited in the Hamptons to watch it,
00:07:48.260 and they're just a 20-minute episode, one after another after another.
00:07:51.300 Well, go back to.
00:07:52.720 So you go from Goldman, then Citadel, New York, and then you got. . .
00:07:59.300 And I was going in and out to MIT, so I did Citadel,
00:08:01.340 but then I went back to finish my master's.
00:08:02.440 And you're doing this stuff with MIT.
00:08:04.280 So when you're doing that, when you're going through it,
00:08:06.900 in your mind, when you're saying, okay, I'm going to get in,
00:08:10.820 and all of a sudden you've got a company that has $22 billion,
00:08:13.300 you know whatever to it's about to get a valuation of 40 billion 250 employees you have influence
00:08:18.040 enemies all these people that are how do you keep yourself sane how do you not lose i just like
00:08:23.060 i think it's the core is like it's interesting like i always you know i always tell people like
00:08:28.220 i like what i'm doing i like markets i really like free markets and i believe in free markets i
00:08:32.060 believe that we should have more of them the more we have of them the more every time we did more
00:08:36.620 free markets we got better results for society every single time it never misses um now you have
00:08:42.820 to have some sensible guardrails,
00:08:44.020 but I think,
00:08:44.600 and I believe in the mission of markets.
00:08:46.300 I believe in prediction markets.
00:08:47.140 They will depolarize us over time.
00:08:48.640 They will make us smarter.
00:08:50.060 You know, people ask me,
00:08:51.120 what's the difference?
00:08:51.820 Like, you know,
00:08:52.280 we talk a little bit about the gambling.
00:08:53.720 The gambling is incentivizing bad behaviors,
00:08:56.220 keep losing and, you know,
00:08:57.020 doing it for entertainment.
00:08:57.780 Prediction markets incentivize people
00:08:58.740 to think more over time,
00:08:59.740 to think more rationally,
00:09:00.500 to think probabilistically.
00:09:02.140 You know, the truth is not
00:09:03.240 Republicans are going to win
00:09:04.840 or Democrats are going to win.
00:09:05.800 The truth right now is 40% chance
00:09:07.220 is going to move over the next week
00:09:08.380 as new information develops.
00:09:10.200 And I want people to get more
00:09:11.300 and more mathematical about the world.
00:09:12.820 that excitement that I have,
00:09:14.240 the thing that I just described,
00:09:15.380 the childish excitement
00:09:16.160 about what I'm building
00:09:16.920 is the thing that gives you sin
00:09:18.680 because I'm not doing,
00:09:19.460 at the core,
00:09:20.020 obviously I'm very happy
00:09:21.120 and like things are,
00:09:22.260 you know,
00:09:22.420 we've got,
00:09:23.200 we're very lucky
00:09:23.780 to have all the success we had.
00:09:26.380 In some ways,
00:09:26.800 I'm living the American dream
00:09:27.560 and it's amazing
00:09:28.140 but like I don't spend much more
00:09:29.880 than I used to.
00:09:31.200 Like I,
00:09:32.260 you know,
00:09:32.980 you know,
00:09:33.740 I like fly better.
00:09:35.300 I think that's one of the best things
00:09:36.360 about,
00:09:36.880 you know,
00:09:37.020 making some money
00:09:37.540 is like you can fly more comfortably
00:09:38.740 because,
00:09:39.140 you know,
00:09:39.720 honestly like flights
00:09:41.120 are getting really tough these days
00:09:42.540 um i eat nice things and like you know but but things have not changed materially i just like
00:09:47.700 what i'm doing and i'm locked in on like i love doing it like work is it's fun for me it's play
00:09:53.180 like we're like oh how why do you go to a weekend are you miserable no i love i love going to the
00:09:56.780 office it's like amazing you know i like go and like there's new ideas and there's like this thing
00:10:00.000 that i can build and like oh my god and like wait what do customers oh customers didn't like that
00:10:03.340 feature they're liking that new one and that's why i always tell people like that's the best
00:10:07.100 thing to do because i think over time and we've got acquisition offers over time and like we
00:10:11.060 you want to sell because i thought about it i was like okay if i sold and made a lot of money what
00:10:14.300 would i do i don't know i know myself if i go and like do nothing with a bunch of money i think i'm
00:10:18.800 gonna get depressed people always think about if you don't have purpose doesn't matter you can have
00:10:22.220 all the money in the world doesn't really matter and you know you'd know this right like um i was
00:10:27.500 like i probably would go back to maybe being in financial markets and being a builder and i thought
00:10:31.880 well it's exactly what i'm doing right now so like so yeah i feel like i would go back to i would be
00:10:36.820 building a you know i know i have a girlfriend for four years now and so i i think like i i tell
00:10:43.560 people figure out the thing that makes you light up and if you don't know what it is ask your
00:10:48.460 friends what it is they will know and you should probably work on that i tell you what cal she
00:10:52.080 incredible concept and it's amazing what it's turned into and i'm so curious to know where
00:10:57.500 you take it next because for us when we look at anything with election decision any of that stuff
00:11:02.560 we go straight to cal she and if you're not already doing it you ought to go out there and
00:11:06.080 Do it for yourself as well.
00:11:07.240 Thanks so much.
00:11:07.800 This has been a pleasure, man.
00:11:08.540 I really enjoyed it.
00:11:09.100 That was really fun.
00:11:09.580 Thank you.
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