Valuetainment - October 31, 2026


Is Kalshi Gambling？ Founder Explains the Business Model

Looksmaxxer Admits His Face Isn’t Why Girls DM Him 250 Employees, $22 BILLION： Kalshi CEO Reveals His Secret to Building an Empire

Episode Stats


Length

4 minutes

Words per minute

212.68

Word count

928

Sentence count

48

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 And what is a business model?
00:00:01.360 How do you make money?
00:00:01.640 We take small fees.
00:00:02.380 So that's the key.
00:00:03.100 This is also one of the difference of being a market versus a sports book.
00:00:05.320 A sports book business model, that's why betting and gambling people don't like in society.
00:00:10.600 Your revenue is equal to your customers' losses.
00:00:12.800 So what do you do?
00:00:13.600 You figure out who the winners are, and you ban them.
00:00:16.000 You find the card counter, and what do you do with them?
00:00:18.000 You kick them out of the casino.
00:00:19.400 And so if anyone is doing smart research, you incentivize them not to.
00:00:22.240 You push them out.
00:00:23.340 If anyone has signs of addiction, and they keep losing money, and they're doing it without really thinking,
00:00:28.100 you incentivize them to keep doing it.
00:00:29.240 That's how you get rewarded.
00:00:30.400 And you give the bonuses and promos 0.98
00:00:31.620 so you can keep these losers coming back. 0.72
00:00:34.340 Markets, I am a marketplace. 0.98
00:00:37.160 You are matching you as a buyer
00:00:38.320 to somebody who's selling to you.
00:00:40.100 And if you open the, for example,
00:00:41.440 the Senate or any of the sports markets we have,
00:00:43.520 if you go down a bit
00:00:44.580 and you click on Democrat Party up,
00:00:46.740 I don't know, yeah, right here.
00:00:48.180 And then you, yeah, if you look at this,
00:00:50.200 if you go down a little bit,
00:00:51.360 yeah, right here.
00:00:51.860 No, yeah, right, right in the middle.
00:00:53.780 The top, the asks is if you scroll slightly up
00:00:56.600 just so that we see, yeah, right here.
00:00:57.800 the ask are people that are selling
00:00:59.560 and the bids are people that are buying.
00:01:00.760 It's the same as the stock market.
00:01:01.540 This is what a New York stock chain looks like.
00:01:03.300 And we match buyers and sellers.
00:01:05.640 And I take a small percentage.
00:01:07.120 So if people trade, let's say, $1,000 a year,
00:01:09.500 I'll take 0.7%.
00:01:10.680 So I'll take, let's call it $7, right?
00:01:14.200 On 1,000.
00:01:14.980 Yeah.
00:01:15.300 Is that relatively the number?
00:01:16.780 Yeah, it's like the New York stock chains, exactly, yeah.
00:01:18.300 And I think that is key because I do it
00:01:21.600 whether somebody wins or loses, I'm indifferent.
00:01:24.220 Actually, I want the card counters or the smart people.
00:01:26.660 Like the New York Stock Exchange
00:01:27.500 wants the smart traders.
00:01:28.620 Why? 0.51
00:01:29.420 Because the smart traders 0.76
00:01:30.160 are the ones that create
00:01:31.180 efficient markets
00:01:31.800 and accurate prices.
00:01:32.940 No one would use my forecasts
00:01:34.160 if it's not calibrated over time.
00:01:36.640 Those people are very skilled
00:01:37.880 and that's why the difference
00:01:39.440 in model is so important.
00:01:40.580 It's like poker.
00:01:41.360 You're not the enemy.
00:01:43.100 Blackjack, 1.00
00:01:43.980 unlike blackjack
00:01:44.940 where the enemy is the casino here.
00:01:46.780 It's different from poker
00:01:47.580 in one other sense.
00:01:48.600 We're discovering the prices
00:01:49.680 of something that has
00:01:50.420 real human impact.
00:01:53.020 So on poker,
00:01:53.560 when people are like,
00:01:54.180 you know,
00:01:54.880 betting against each other,
00:01:55.620 you're not learning anything because you know what the probability of a card flipping is here
00:02:00.440 you're learning this idea of price discovery you're learning the prices if you go back up to
00:02:05.700 the chart that chart you would never like you know have a chart on which poker hand is going to play
00:02:10.600 next because you know that chart is a fixed probability it's a no whereas here we're like
00:02:15.140 that positive externality of getting smarter about the world is what makes markets okay so let's just
00:02:19.000 say let walk me through it if somebody right here puts a hundred thousand dollars on no 37 cents
00:02:24.380 democratic party what does that mean so if you look at it here if you yeah on the right if you
00:02:30.700 click on dollars on the all the way to the right just a little bit yeah right here shares and then
00:02:36.000 if you type in a thousand shares in the in the thing it tells you immediately so you're buying
00:02:40.640 a thousand shares the average price you're going to get filled at is 64 cents and you're going to
00:02:45.180 pay 600 let's say 50 after fees and they're going to get paid a thousand dollars if you end up being
00:02:50.760 right now you know now you own those thousand shares they're not shares of a stock or shares
00:02:55.020 of like oil uh futures they're shares of you know the democrats winning the senate the senate and
00:03:01.940 then in a few weeks if that goes up to like let's say 75 percent you can sell those shares and you
00:03:06.460 get like not even waiting till the end 11 that's what most people do vast majority of volume they're
00:03:10.780 buying and selling what percentage doesn't wait till the end of the volume i think it's like 70
00:03:15.200 70 doesn't wait till the end yeah i mean because they're traders they're like they're trading
00:03:19.660 they're freaking out
00:03:20.940 again, you and I discussed this
00:03:23.940 there are people that are in the middle
00:03:24.840 a lot of these guys are also
00:03:26.120 they're kind of swing voters
00:03:28.260 because they're dispassionate about the outcome
00:03:30.620 they're unburdened by ideology
00:03:31.900 they're thinking, okay, the Democrats are a little bit too overpriced
00:03:35.200 or underpriced right now
00:03:36.120 so if I think it's overpriced, I'm going to sell
00:03:37.880 it's like a stock
00:03:39.560 that totally makes sense
00:03:40.720 but that level of rigor is markets
00:03:43.900 okay
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