Valuetainment - August 22, 2022


How Great Investors Time The Market


Episode Stats

Length

5 minutes

Words per Minute

219.19666

Word Count

1,186

Sentence Count

90


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 So the chart that you're looking at right now is called the Fear-Greed Index, and here's all it is.
00:00:04.300 When we're extremely greedy, fear is very low, and when we're extremely afraid, greed is very low.
00:00:11.020 What does this really mean? So, for example, a year ago, in a marketplace, everybody was super greedy.
00:00:16.720 They had money, they were making money in crypto, in the stock market, Tesla, Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs,
00:00:22.840 everybody was super, super greedy, so they were not afraid. They were not worried about what the
00:00:28.900 market's going to look like. They were walking around saying, I got money in the back, I got
00:00:31.680 half a million in crypto, I got a million dollars here, I got two million dollars here, and they're
00:00:36.100 very comfortable with where they are, so they're not open-minded, they're not looking, they think
00:00:41.200 they know it all. They got a million and one blind spots, and we've all been there before, and then
00:00:45.940 all of a sudden, they get hit hard, and you notice greed gradually comes down, and fear gradually comes
00:00:52.460 up. So if I were to ask you right now, let's play a game. If you look at this chart again, where do
00:00:57.340 you think we are right now with the fear-greed index? Do you think we're at level one, which
00:01:02.560 is the highest, highest greed, and the lowest level fear? Do you think we're somewhere between
00:01:07.740 greed being high and greed being in the middle with fear tied up? Do you think kind of we're
00:01:12.220 quarter way? Do you think we're halfway? Do you think we're already super afraid, or extremely
00:01:16.240 afraid? Where do you think we are? I'm willing to tell you, we are right now in between extremely
00:01:22.380 greedy and somewhat leveling off right in the middle between fear. I think we're quarter,
00:01:26.620 uh, ways there. Why am I saying this? Because people still have record-breaking savings in the
00:01:32.240 bank. Yes, people lost three trillion dollars in retirement savings. Yes, 80,000 crypto millionaires
00:01:37.940 were wiped out, and, you know, they're still, you know, worried about what happened with their
00:01:41.720 Bitcoin. They're waiting for it to come up a little bit. Ethereum's been coming up a little bit.
00:01:45.360 Yes, that took place, but people are still a little bit greedy. Fear hasn't sunken yet. The video I did
00:01:51.660 with real estate, you know how many reaction videos was made about the real estate video,
00:01:54.960 a market crash video. You're wrong. You don't know what you're talking about. There's no way
00:01:59.640 this is going to happen. There's no way. Here's what we're going to do. They just announced today
00:02:03.400 that they're raising the, you know, interest rates again, another three basis, three quarters
00:02:06.860 of a basis point. And their quote, when they say about raising the interest rates, it's the same
00:02:11.640 exact thing. They're raising the three quarters of a basis point, but they don't know if they're
00:02:16.040 going to do it again in the future because economists are not aware. They've been saying this every
00:02:18.720 month. But they're not going to do it again. But they're not going to do it again. Even yesterday,
00:02:22.920 the White House is talking about the recession. It's not really recession. It's not really
00:02:26.720 recession. This is not really it. The definition has changed. A person asks the press secretary,
00:02:32.800 are you guys trying to change the definition of recession? You know what she finally answered?
00:02:37.460 She says, I'm not answering any questions about recession. Why not? It's what everybody wants
00:02:43.100 to know. It was the trending word on Twitter yesterday. Recession is trending on Twitter.
00:02:48.940 If recession is trending on Twitter, what do you think America's thinking right now? Maybe we are
00:02:54.120 in recession. So if you can time this, it's very basic timing part. When people are greedy,
00:03:02.240 terrible time to buy. When people are afraid, great time to buy. The key is to time when people are the
00:03:09.340 most afraid. And it ain't today because people are still greedy today. People are still sitting there
00:03:14.220 saying, my real estate is going to come back up. Bitcoin is going to come back up. Stock market is going to
00:03:18.220 come back up. Meaning it's going to come back up right now. Obviously it's eventually going to come
00:03:21.380 back up, but it's like, oh, it's going to come back up in the next 90 days, in the next six months.
00:03:25.980 This thing we're in right now is going to last a minute. Is it going to last four years? I don't
00:03:30.700 know. Is it going to last six months? I don't know. But historically last six months to 43 months.
00:03:36.300 And the one that lasted 43 months was called the Great Depression. And the one last six months has
00:03:40.700 been many different recessions that we've had. But regardless, if it's six months only,
00:03:44.520 and if recession started July 1st, that means worst case scenario, recession is going to go until when?
00:03:50.180 August, September, October, November, December, January 1st. The least this thing's going to go
00:03:55.100 is till the end of January. The longest it's going to go, it's going to be till 2025, maybe 2026.
00:04:00.840 That's the longest. But that's the range that we have. And for you is to watch the marketplace.
00:04:06.520 A Mickey Mantle card hit the marketplace yesterday. SGC, nine and a half. Some say that's a $15
00:04:13.080 million card. Some say that's a $25 million card. Some say it's a $30 million card. Some say it's a
00:04:18.320 $5 million card. The fear index is going to show right now what people think it's worth. If it's
00:04:23.080 sold six months from now, I guarantee you it'd be a lot less than it is today. That's my speculation
00:04:28.000 of what I think would happen. But people, if they're still paying high prices, people are still
00:04:32.320 greedy today, which means today is probably still not the best time to buy. The best time to buy is
00:04:37.480 probably going to be next three, six, 12 months from now. I may be wrong, but I think we're still not
00:04:41.620 there yet. So again, whenever you look at investments or whenever you want to buy stuff,
00:04:45.580 ask yourself, how greedy are we today? How afraid are we today? When fear is high, sales are higher.
00:04:53.340 Appointment shows higher. People are more receptive. They want to listen to what you have to offer.
00:04:57.960 When greed is high, they don't take your calls. They don't take the meetings. They only give you
00:05:01.620 five minutes. They blow you off. It takes them five times to get to meetings. So you can always measure
00:05:07.740 when we're greedy, when we're afraid. And based on that, you can make the decisions for yourself.
00:05:11.900 Now, if this video got you thinking, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. And I got
00:05:15.900 two videos I want you to watch. One of them is if you're concerned about what's going to happen to
00:05:18.740 real estate bubble, watch this video. And if you're worried about the stock market crash, click to
00:05:22.900 watch this video. Take care, everybody. Bye-bye.