Valuetainment - Pessimist Economist Why He Think Future Looks BLEAK

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00:00:30.000 Where are you at, Steve, on the topic of what's happening right now with the wealth disparity?

00:00:36.920 You know, we've always heard the saying, rich get rich, or poor get poor, right?

00:00:40.540 I pulled up something yesterday when I was looking at it, when, you know, the last 50 years,

00:00:46.520 who were the top five richest men in America, last 50 years?

00:00:50.120 And one of the things I noticed is 50 years ago, the difference between first place and second place was, I don't know, 10%, okay?

00:00:59.020 And it went to 20% and then 25%.

00:01:02.180 Today, the difference between first place and second place is 300%.

00:01:05.920 And, you know, Elon is at the top with 1.3, 1.4, which I have no problem with.

00:01:10.300 I'm the capitalist.

00:01:11.000 You and I may differ in this topic.

00:01:15.960 But what role you think AI is going to play on accelerating, creating extremely wealthy people and a lot of people being left behind?

00:01:26.940 And then if that does end up happening, your position, maybe you're pro-AI.

00:01:32.520 Maybe you're optimistic that AI is going to do good for the economy.

00:01:35.360 But what role do you think AI is going to play the next five to ten years?

00:01:38.060 We're just seeing it right now.

00:01:38.960 What do you think is going to happen?

00:01:40.700 First of all, I think there's going to be a bust.

00:01:42.960 This is a classic boom and bust cycle in capitalism, just like with railways back in the 19th century.

00:01:48.740 So railways were a private technology when they first came in, and everybody thought they're going to make an absolute fortune out of railways.

00:01:55.180 Railways, particularly in the U.K., just crisscrossed everywhere.

00:01:58.420 They all went bust, and you only had a handful of operators surviving,

00:02:02.660 and then the state bought them up.

00:02:03.520 How long did that take, by the way?

00:02:04.900 How long from start to bust?

00:02:07.080 What was the time?

00:02:07.720 I can't recall.

00:02:09.960 I haven't read the literature.

00:02:11.320 Is it over 50 years?

00:02:12.300 Is it 15 years?

00:02:13.700 15, 10 to 15 years.

00:02:15.760 AI is much faster than that.

00:02:17.660 So we're seeing a huge buildup right now.

00:02:19.860 From what I've seen in terms of the amount of revenue these companies are getting

00:02:23.000 versus the cost they've got,

00:02:24.760 They're cost of five or 10 times the revenue.

00:02:27.480 In other words, they're losing large amounts of money.

00:02:29.900 And so you're going to come up with only a few survivors coming out of this.

00:02:33.300 And I think the cost of AI is going to increase quite dramatically as well.

00:02:36.900 At the moment, people are using AI to make funny cartoons of their father-in-law or mother-in-law.

00:02:42.200 The days when that's a feasible...

00:02:43.720 It'll be more mother-in-laws fun, but...

00:02:45.540 More mother-in-laws, I'll agree with that. 1.00

00:02:48.940 But we're going to get a boom and a bust.

00:02:52.320 So we're getting a boom at the moment.

00:02:53.480 the bus will come, I think, in the next one or two years, and then you're going to get a large

00:02:57.800 collapse. All the money that was put into it would be lost. Money will still be distributed in the

00:03:03.680 system, of course, but it won't be in the hands of those who paid out for the data centers and so on.

00:03:07.880 So I see that happening. With AI in general, I know that it's a long way from this being

00:03:12.600 technologically feasible, but the thing which Musk is talking about, and I agree with him on this

00:03:17.260 front, is that if we got to the stage where robots could replace humans, then there would be no

00:03:23.140 capacity for workers, for anybody without capital, to get an income. So the only way to survive that

00:03:29.120 is to have the income generated by the economy as a whole. And that means you get basically a

00:03:34.980 universal, Musk calls it universal high income, but you have to create the money that enables

00:03:40.960 people to buy because the vast majority of people won't have ownership of capital and they won't

00:03:46.640 have the capacity to get unskilled jobs anymore anyway. The robots will have them. So if you're

00:03:52.020 to avoid the Hunger Games outcome, you have to give everybody enough money to be able to buy the

00:03:56.940 goods being produced by these firms and live a comfortable life. But I can't see that happening.

00:04:03.680 I think we're going to see climatic issues long before we get to that point.

00:04:08.000 Let me, by the way, when is your birthday? What month is your birthday? I'm curious.

00:04:12.300 March.

00:04:13.080 Your March? Okay. Early March, mid-March?

00:04:15.780 Late.

00:04:16.380 Okay. So you're in Aries. Are you like after the 22nd?

00:04:21.600 Yes, indeed.

00:04:22.200 Okay.

00:04:22.780 So my dad's also the same as you, and it's funny just talking to you.

00:04:27.040 I'm wondering why, Rink, how much of your own philosophies on economy and finance,

00:04:37.420 how has it worked for you when it comes down to making investments with your own money?

00:04:43.500 I don't invest.

00:04:44.840 At all?

00:04:45.700 No, I mean, I'm building a company.

00:04:47.480 I've got a company called Ravel, Ravelation.

00:04:49.460 So I'm making a software product.

00:04:53.220 I've done a couple of attempts at getting businesses started.

00:04:55.940 If I'd done them in America, they would have been successful because the scale of the American economy is much larger than the Australian economy.

00:05:02.140 So you like American capitalism.

00:05:04.560 That was a very big compliment right there.

00:05:05.800 No, I like the scale of the American economy.

00:05:07.080 Listen, you floored it a little bit.

00:05:08.960 You floored it a little bit with the, you know— 0.92

00:05:11.960 Equally Europe.

00:05:12.920 We have been quite successful in Europe and England as well.

00:05:14.980 I think you made America look a little sexier.

00:05:17.860 The way you said it, you couldn't help yourself.

00:05:19.280 That's fair enough.

00:05:19.920 I mean, there is one thing I will say in favor of American culture.

00:05:23.520 Failure is not a problem.

00:05:25.300 Failure is – one of my favorite lines as a send-up is saying success is the first step on the ladder of failure and vice versa.

00:05:32.300 So being able to fail and commit yourself up and keep on going, that's part of what the attitude of America is.

00:05:36.980 And that's a positive contribution to enabling innovation to occur.

00:05:41.220 So you need that to some degree.

00:05:43.300 But, yeah, in terms of – what people call investing, I call speculation.

00:05:47.860 You're buying shares and buying houses and expecting to increase in price.

00:05:52.140 When I know the logic behind that, it's all driven by financial bubbles.

00:05:55.140 So I've stayed out of that.

00:05:56.600 But I am trying to form a company right now called Revelation,

00:05:59.440 and that will be marketing a software package both for data analysis

00:06:02.680 and for economic planning.

00:06:05.240 Steve, did you fall in love with an American girl that broke your heart many years ago

00:06:10.840 and you just had spite for America?

00:06:14.120 Did a girl break your heart in the past?

00:06:15.580 Is that what it is?

00:06:16.280 It seems like you're, you know, Mary was wrong.

00:06:19.380 It's not your fault, Steve. 0.98

00:06:20.860 I just want to let you know, screw Mary. 0.98

00:06:22.960 You're okay. 0.98

00:06:23.760 We're going to be fine.

00:06:24.660 I'm giving you a hard time.

00:06:25.560 I'm saying if your ex's name was Mary.

00:06:26.920 In fact, I married, I made two, I said two things I'd never do

00:06:29.980 was marry a nurse or an American, and I did both in sequence. 0.57

00:06:33.060 Really?

00:06:34.300 Yes.

00:06:34.980 So you married an American nurse?

00:06:37.500 No, I married an American singer. 0.57

00:06:39.360 Oh, singer.

00:06:40.080 I thought you said nurse.

00:06:41.500 The first wife was an Australian nurse. 0.93

00:06:44.180 The second was an American singer.

00:06:45.920 So the second one succeeded.

00:06:47.200 You're still married.

00:06:48.500 No, lasted about two years, and I wish I'd never gotten involved.

00:06:51.380 There you go.

00:06:51.840 I mean, we just figured it out.

00:06:53.020 We just figured out your economical philosophies in the last 20 seconds with what happened on the second one.

00:06:59.240 But let me ask you, do you ever sit there, Steve, and wonder and say, maybe I should have gone into the market.

00:07:07.860 Maybe I should have invested.

00:07:09.180 Maybe I should have bought some Bitcoin.

00:07:10.640 Maybe I was wrong on some of my—

00:07:12.380 Oh, Bitcoin, definitely.

00:07:13.200 I should have bought Bitcoin because I was first introduced him when it cost a pound of Bitcoin.

00:07:16.980 Stop it.

00:07:19.180 Did you say a pound of Bitcoin?

00:07:21.580 Yep, roughly speaking.

00:07:22.920 And you said no to it?

00:07:24.980 When I had the energy use explained to me, I thought this isn't going to work.

00:07:28.780 Now, I should have done what Newton did, not the first time, but say this is a crazy bubble. 0.98

00:07:33.520 If other people are idiotic enough to do it, I'm going to buy and put $1,000 I can afford to lose. 0.99

00:07:38.040 I would have made a billion. 1.00

00:07:39.260 Okay?

00:07:39.600 So it's my mistake.

00:07:40.520 I didn't do it.

00:07:41.200 So, yes, I do have regrets like that.

00:07:43.200 How about free market?

00:07:45.520 How about the stock market?

00:07:46.480 Like, do you look back and say, you know, because an element of investing,

00:07:52.360 and I'm so glad you're in free market capitalism right now to build a company.

00:07:56.200 God willing, you'll build it and you'll sell it.

00:07:58.020 And I actually hope you do because I love when these types of –

00:08:01.320 I just had Mehdi Hassan on.

00:08:03.240 I don't know if you're familiar with Mehdi Hassan.

00:08:05.100 I know Mehdi, yeah.

00:08:06.140 I think he was on two weeks ago or three weeks ago.

00:08:08.080 We had a very good conversation, great back-and-forth debate.

00:08:11.400 And, you know, he's a professional debater.

00:08:13.540 I mean, he does this for a living.

00:08:14.520 It was a phenomenal conversation.

00:08:16.320 But I said to him, I said, you know, how's it feel going from working at MSNBC

00:08:22.480 and they're paying you a salary to now you're a capitalist?

00:08:25.080 You have to hire people.

00:08:26.060 You have to build a company.

00:08:26.900 And he had a smirk.

00:08:27.600 We laughed about it, you know, kind of went through it.

00:08:29.600 I hope he exists for $100 million.

00:08:31.420 I hope he, because, you know, I grew up in a family where my mother was a communist.

00:08:36.900 We grew up, our Bible was the Karl Marx Communist Manifesto.

00:08:39.740 I've read the book.

00:08:40.560 You know, my mother's side, they come from Baku, Azerbaijan, so her family was all about—my dad was pro-Shah, so he was an imperialist, and so they married each other.

00:08:51.480 They married and divorced each other twice, and so—no, literally, that's what happened.

00:08:56.120 They married and divorced each other.

00:08:57.320 They married.

00:08:58.020 My sister's born.

00:08:58.820 They divorced.

00:08:59.500 Two years later, they remarried.

00:09:01.100 I'm born, divorced, and they never got married again to anybody, but a big part of my financial philosophy comes—

00:09:10.540 comes from me hating rich people and saying these guys are greedy it's all self-interest that's all

00:09:15.460 they care about and then I went into business and then I started off with Morgan Stanley Dean

00:09:19.780 Witter and then next thing you know I made some money then I built a business and I realized

00:09:23.800 you're not gonna win if it's only you making money and so I give everybody equity and then

00:09:29.720 I realized when everybody owned a piece of the company they ran in a different way they picked

00:09:33.340 up the trash you know they said hello to people in a different way there was a certain incentive

00:09:38.000 to it. So I'm glad you're getting into the business. But do you think about and say,

00:09:42.320 maybe I should have gotten involved in equities 30, 40 years ago?

00:09:45.580 Not equities, but the software package I'm designing now called Ravel. I came up with

00:09:49.400 the idea for that 30 years ago. In fact, it's Ravel. The main thing Ravel does that in terms

00:09:54.140 of data analysis, that's better than anything else on the market is that it handles multidimensional

00:09:58.860 data, data that's more than rows and columns in a spreadsheet. And in fact, the system that most

00:10:03.820 people use is called a pivot table. And it turns out that pivot tables first invented seven years

00:10:08.640 after I came up with the idea that I'm now putting into Rabble, which is a graphical

00:10:12.740 multi-dimensional object for handling complex data and being able to analyze it and see it

00:10:17.160 easily. So yes, I could have made the decision to go and push that forward. I would have come up

00:10:22.600 with a software package that predates Excel that would have trashed what Excel tried to do with

00:10:27.660 pivot tables. So I wish I had done that, but I didn't. So I'm now doing it a bit later in age.

00:10:31.980 Would you mind spelling it so guys know how to find it? 0.75

00:10:34.280 R-A-V-E-L?

00:10:35.580 Now, R-A-V-E-L, R-A-V-E-L, and the company name is Ravulation, not Revelation, but Ravulation.

00:10:41.380 And is there a website to it?

00:10:42.720 Is there a website?

00:10:43.380 Yes, we're just about to launch it, in fact.

00:10:45.660 There is a Patreon page, which we're doing at the moment, very basic, but that's where

00:10:49.360 you can get a copy of Ravulation from at the moment for a sort of Patreon support level.

00:10:53.280 Can you send that link to us so we can put it below for the audience to see it?

00:10:56.460 We'll do.

00:10:57.020 We have to do an initial seed launch.

00:10:59.940 We've done a pre-seed round.

00:11:01.180 using, you know, the idea of a safe agreement.

00:11:03.620 So she holds a agreement for future equity.

00:11:06.020 We've already done that.

00:11:06.820 I love it.

00:11:07.340 I love it.

00:11:07.880 Yeah.

00:11:08.200 I love it.

00:11:08.800 So we're doing,

00:11:09.840 happily doing a seed round

00:11:11.000 at about one or two months' time.

00:11:12.400 Beautiful.

00:11:12.840 If you send that to us,

00:11:13.580 we'll put it below.

00:11:14.040 Let me continue.

00:11:15.060 So a question on this

00:11:17.600 as we're going into it

00:11:18.760 and we're talking about,

00:11:20.580 you know, investments, capitalism,

00:11:22.320 all of that.

00:11:23.200 Have you followed Jim Simons?

00:11:24.860 Do you know about Jim Simons

00:11:26.280 Renaissance Technologies?

00:11:28.500 Yes.

00:11:28.800 And I also know Louis Kelso.

00:11:30.480 It's a similar sort of idea as the capitalist manifesto.

00:11:33.480 You were talking a bit about worker-managed firms fundamentally a moment ago,

00:11:36.700 and it's a similar sort of idea.

00:11:38.120 You want people to have a commitment to the firm they're in,

00:11:40.640 and just having a wage doesn't necessarily do that.

00:11:43.060 Having an equity position can enhance that.

00:11:46.480 Apparently that's a large part of the success for BYD.

00:11:49.540 Yeah, do you remember that one socialist who said,

00:11:53.380 I pay everybody only $70,000 a year, and Bernie Sanders liked the story.

00:11:58.160 The story of the guy went viral.

00:11:59.560 This was like five years ago.

00:12:00.720 I don't know if you remember that story or not.

00:12:02.880 What was the guy's name?

00:12:04.060 Who was the socialist that paid his employees 70K a year, something like that, and he went viral?

00:12:13.760 Can you pull up his name?

00:12:15.920 Yeah, I remember.

00:12:16.520 So when we had him on, yeah, Gravity Payments, we ended up having him on.

00:12:21.300 What was the guy's name?

00:12:22.440 He had a long carry.

00:12:23.520 He looked like a guy.

00:12:24.440 He looked like Brad Pitt, good-looking guy.

00:12:26.320 Dan Price was his name, Dan Price.

00:12:28.500 And I had him on the podcast once.

00:12:30.420 This was probably five years ago.

00:12:32.360 And again, politically, we probably, economically, we probably disagreed where we were at because

00:12:36.960 he was more of a socialist.

00:12:38.780 But then when I asked him the question, I said, so you pay everybody 70 grand?

00:12:41.560 He says, yes.

00:12:42.440 Including your C-suites?

00:12:43.500 Yes.

00:12:44.420 I said, how much equity do you give your guys?

00:12:47.180 And he was startled by that question.

00:12:49.560 I said, if you're so much about spreading the wealth, why don't you give them equity?

00:12:53.520 I said, so you got $100 million of your company and you own 100% of the company?

00:12:57.600 I do.

00:12:58.040 I said, that's not, that doesn't sound like, you know, your values match each other.

00:13:03.480 So it made for a great conversation.

00:13:06.020 I don't know what happened to his business.

00:13:07.580 I think he got in trouble, but I'm excited to see what this next phase you're going.

00:13:10.420 By the way, how much you think, if I were to ask your best friends from high school,

00:13:18.500 guys that you've known the longest, okay, people that like, you know, if you ask my

00:13:22.100 friends, they'll be able to tell you who I was and all this stuff, would they consider

00:13:25.340 you a pessimist or an optimist?

00:13:27.700 Back in those days, an optimist.

00:13:29.820 Okay.

00:13:31.000 I've got a very optimistic orientation, a very outgoing personality.

00:13:36.760 So I tend to be optimistic.

00:13:38.540 But the more I learn about society and the state wherein pessimism has been forced upon me.

00:13:43.100 Do you regret that?

00:13:44.320 Do you wish you were the old optimist?

00:13:46.760 Well, only the optimist if I didn't know what I know right now.

00:13:49.960 So like, for example, one career I could have had was being a professional tennis player.

00:13:54.720 And that would have been a very different lifestyle to what I've led.

00:13:58.420 It was like a fork in the road moment where I had a choice between a professional sports career or academia.

00:14:06.340 And by sheer circumstance, academia won out.

00:14:09.720 What happened? What was the event that you didn't go tennis?

00:14:12.120 Because, I mean, why wouldn't you go tennis over academia?

00:14:15.760 Well, because I was a student at the time at Sydney University, studying, doing an arts law degree, studying economics. 0.99

00:14:22.000 and horrified by how stupid the economic theory is, 0.99

00:14:26.440 still even more horrified today than I was then. 1.00

00:14:29.380 And then there was a student strike at university

00:14:31.780 which led us to overthrow the economics department,

00:14:34.720 well, not to overthrow it, but to create a rival department.

00:14:38.060 I got caught up on all the politics of that

00:14:39.920 and that meant my tennis went from five days a week to one day a week

00:14:43.880 and I dropped from that incredibly high standard.

00:14:45.860 Wow.

00:14:46.420 I was doing 20 hours a week of tennis

00:14:49.400 plus a ludicrous amount of running and weightlifting

00:14:51.920 and cycling while doing a university degree. And then with the excitement of the student strike

00:14:58.240 and taking on economics and challenging it, that's become my life. So in one sense,

00:15:03.840 I've enjoyed the life I've led. I'm glad I've led this life, but I'd like to have two of me.

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00:16:10.400 Is that not crazy when we look back and we're like, what if I would have done this and what

00:16:14.240 if I would have done that?

00:16:15.100 Who would it have become

00:16:15.980 and what would I have done?

00:16:17.300 By the way, how old were you

00:16:18.360 the first time you read

00:16:19.140 Communist Manifesto?

00:16:21.460 Oh, I first read Capital.

00:16:23.460 It was the first book I read by Marx.

00:16:25.100 I was 20.

00:16:26.420 You were 20?

00:16:27.940 Yeah.

00:16:28.060 So you read Capitalist first,

00:16:29.920 then you read Communist Manifesto.

00:16:31.700 I've read everything Marx

00:16:32.540 ever read on economics.

00:16:33.680 That was my master's degree.

00:16:35.080 Because when I read Capital,

00:16:36.440 this is a bit of a funny story.

00:16:37.960 At the end of that student strike

00:16:39.100 at Sydney University in 1973,

00:16:41.320 three, everybody in the strike was a lefty, okay? You'd call them communists.

00:16:46.680 Sure, for sure.

00:16:47.520 And they said, all the various strikes succeeded, all sorts of reform of education at Sydney

00:16:53.800 University that year. And we had a, let's have a Marxist reading group. So in the middle of a

00:16:58.080 Sydney summer, and I'm talking a glorious summer when you should be spending your time on the

00:17:01.300 beach, a bunch of 20 or 30 lefties sitting in a cold room inside the Sydney University reading

00:17:06.320 Das Kapital. Now, part of what I knew was in Das Kapital was the argument that machines

00:17:11.300 don't add value. Machines transfer the value they hold, but they don't actually add any extra value

00:17:15.940 to the system. And I remember walking across to that, the beginning of this reading group

00:17:21.420 with a colleague looking at the, over Sydney's skyline and where Sydney, you can see the whole

00:17:27.580 of Sydney from Sydney University. And there were hundreds of cranes. And I said, I want a very

00:17:32.420 good explanation by Marx as to why those machines don't add value. So I read the book very carefully

00:17:38.440 and I found that Marx had a brilliant argument about what he called the gap between use value

00:17:43.120 and exchange value in production. And I applied that to machinery, and it led to the deduction

00:17:48.440 that machines do add value. So I then said that to my bunch of fellow Marxists, and they'd already

00:17:54.420 brainwashed themselves into believing the labor theory of value. They laughed at me.

00:17:59.160 So I then decided that's going to be my master's thesis topic to find where Marx came up with those

00:18:03.460 ideas. And I didn't do a master's until I was about 20 years older. I finished my undergrad

00:18:09.160 in 73. I began my master's in 1993, I think so, 20 years later. But I went through Marx looking

00:18:15.600 for where he came up with those ideas and I found it. So I've read everything Marx ever wrote on

00:18:20.420 economics, including the Communist Manifesto. But would you have considered yourself a leftist at

00:18:24.340 17? No, I was quite right wing. So academia got a hold of you and kept that mindset with you

00:18:32.340 since then? No. Marxists dislike me about as much as

00:18:40.180 neo-classical economists do. It's very hard to put me into any particular category. I'm

00:18:45.180 very much a capitalist entrepreneur at the same time as being an intellectual. So I don't

00:18:50.860 think I've been a whole of anything. What I look for is good logic. And what I found

00:18:56.800 in Marx in those first seven chapters was brilliant logic that contradicted a fundamental

00:19:02.200 argument he believed in, which is the labor theory of value. And the labor theory of value

00:19:06.140 was needed to believe that there'd be what I call a falling rate of profit, and a falling

00:19:09.980 rate of profit was needed to believe in socialism. So when I read that book in 1973, I saw Marx's

00:19:15.620 arguments that socialism is inevitable were wrong. Okay? So pretty hard. I mean, the first

00:19:21.940 people I got, the first people I attacked in terms of attacking their economic thinking

00:19:25.800 was neoclassical economists. The next group was Marxists. But by the way, the school you

00:19:30.060 went to, did they also ask you to read Wealth of Nations or Hayek or any of the avant-mises,

00:19:34.280 any of this stuff, or not really? Well, it's all my own reading. I mean,

00:19:37.220 at university, at school, I went to a Catholic school. So I read the Bible more than I read

00:19:41.680 any economics text, but I read books by books by Samuelson and Hicks when I was at school.

00:19:47.480 So my basic argument is you've got to read to understand what people are talking about. You

00:19:52.300 don't just take newspaper cutouts to understand the theories. When we set out to create a shoe

00:19:57.820 that blends comfort, function, and luxury.

00:20:01.640 We had the choice to make it fast.

00:20:03.920 We had the choice to make it cheap.

00:20:05.900 We chose neither.

00:20:07.480 Instead, we chose Tuscaniro.

00:20:09.840 We chose true Italian craftsmanship,

00:20:12.440 each pair touched by 50 skilled hands.

00:20:15.280 We chose patience,

00:20:16.740 spending two years perfecting every detail,

00:20:18.740 and we chose the finest quality at every step.

00:20:22.780 Introducing the Future Looks Bright collection.

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Valuetainment - July 22, 2026

Pessimist Economist Why He Think Future Looks BLEAK

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