Verdict with Ted Cruz - November 05, 2026


BONUS POD： 2026 Election Autopsy： Where Republicans Lost Voters

Bloodbath： What Happened, Why & Where on Earth Do We Go from Here？ Election Disaster： How We Rebuild

Episode Stats


Length

27 minutes

Words per minute

167.55

Word count

4,648

Sentence count

277

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:01:21.200 if you're going to do huge conservative things that are going to reorient the country for a
00:01:29.160 generation fine but i saw no indication that the current group of republican senators were
00:01:35.340 interested in doing that type of conservative change a lot of our voters who stayed home
00:01:41.560 they stayed home because they were frustrated with the lack of productivity from republicans
00:01:48.000 in the House and Senate. You're listening to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson.
00:01:53.260 Good Thursday morning. Nice to have you with us on the 47 Morning Update. And we've got one
00:01:57.360 big story for you. We now have a lot more data and a lot of takeaways from exit polling
00:02:03.300 about what actually happened on Tuesday night. A lot of it is incredibly surprising,
00:02:09.580 including issues like Iran and the economy. So what do we learn from this and how do we move
00:02:13.960 forward. I have a lot of data. I'm going to break it all down for you. Get your pen and paper ready.
00:02:19.540 You're going to want to take some notes. But before we get to that, you may think that wireless
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00:03:48.040 It's a 47 morning update and it starts right now.
00:03:50.700 Story number one.
00:03:51.940 All right, we're going to do this show a little bit different than normal just because I think it's important that we cover what happened in the election.
00:03:59.080 And really some of the takeaways is I've been able to dive through a lot of the data.
00:04:05.040 Data that, by the way, I think is incredibly important data.
00:04:08.900 Exit poll data and listening to the voters and trying to understand what happened on Tuesday is important so that we can, number one, not do it again.
00:04:17.660 But number two, so that we can move forward with a game plan.
00:04:20.880 Now, let me just say something real quick.
00:04:22.580 I'm going to talk about this more later, but I want you to understand and put it in perspective.
00:04:25.300 As we all got a tail whooping and you think to yourself, how bad is it?
00:04:31.660 This is not as bad as it was in 2010.
00:04:34.440 for Barack Obama. When Barack Obama became president of the United States of America
00:04:39.620 two years earlier in 08, he had a shellacking. By the way, guess what he did in 2012?
00:04:45.900 Overwhelmingly won re-election. He learned from their mistakes and then he decided to pivot
00:04:51.680 quickly. Now this, you may say, all right, how big were our mistakes? They were actually pretty
00:04:56.980 simplistic based on what voters were saying. So I'm going to go through my notes with you
00:05:01.620 So you kind of understand it. I when I say I've spent probably eight, nine hours on this.
00:05:07.660 All right. That's how much data I was going through. That's how many different people I was talking to across the country.
00:05:13.600 Countless pollsters I talked to, political individuals who lost, some who won and getting their thoughts on this as well.
00:05:21.800 So let me go to my bottom line here is this.
00:05:26.640 I believe the Republicans lost this election for two interconnected reasons.
00:05:32.520 Number one was the economy.
00:05:34.960 And forget the word economy.
00:05:36.880 Let's just call it what it is.
00:05:38.160 Affordability and gas prices. 0.57
00:05:40.580 Number two, and this again is coming from the exit poll data that we're now seeing, was the Iran war.
00:05:47.720 But the war mattered, and it wasn't just because it was a war.
00:05:50.720 It mattered in large part because voters connected that war directly back to the economy. 0.99
00:05:56.800 So it was the economy's stupid times two. 0.94
00:06:00.460 Americans were worried, those that voted for Trump last time, 0.99
00:06:04.800 they were worried about gas prices.
00:06:06.860 They were worried about grocery store prices.
00:06:10.300 They were worried about the basic necessities in their life and their finances.
00:06:15.620 And there's a lot of Americans that live paycheck to paycheck.
00:06:18.220 And so Washington was not focused, the voters said, on that problem.
00:06:23.400 They weren't focused on their kitchen table and putting the food on that table.
00:06:28.260 The war intensified those concerns and made the administration's priorities harder for them to defend.
00:06:36.180 And that's why many that voted for Trump actually voted against Republicans.
00:06:39.500 they feel like squandered their vote, right, squandered their support in that two-year
00:06:45.660 time frame that we're talking about between the presidential and the midterms.
00:06:48.980 Now, let's talk about the economy, all right?
00:06:53.300 The most important mistake would be to treat this as a complicated ideological referendum
00:06:59.200 when many voters were asking a much simpler question, am I better off?
00:07:04.780 The exit polls suggest a large number of Americans answered no.
00:07:10.080 I'll give you an example of this.
00:07:11.500 CBS found that voters were more than twice as likely to say their finances had worsened as improved.
00:07:18.460 Around three quarters, right, that's 75% almost, were dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
00:07:25.880 And then you had Trump's approval among voters was at about 38%.
00:07:29.420 Now, these findings, as reported on election night, put the economy at roughly 4 in 10 voters' very top issue.
00:07:38.300 Around three-quarters described the economy as also negative, meaning moving in the wrong direction.
00:07:44.120 Now, Reuters reported that nearly 9 in 10 voters considered cost of living a crucial or major factor in their vote.
00:07:53.500 and roughly two-thirds blamed president donald trump and the republicans for the high prices
00:08:00.480 now this does not mean i want to be clear that every voter held the same economic view but what
00:08:05.480 it does mean is republicans could not want to debate about the economic statistics when voters
00:08:12.640 were judging the administration on the issue of grocery prices gas prices housing costs and as
00:08:21.740 it was described by exit pollers, household budgets. This also wasn't a low turnout issue.
00:08:28.080 I want you to understand that the turnout was actually robust, but there's a lot of people
00:08:31.640 that voted for Donald Trump two years ago that felt like they had been forgotten and left behind.
00:08:36.960 The second issue in the polling data was Iran. That was the second problem. It was not a foreign
00:08:43.880 policy problem it was an economic amplifier let me let me explain this through the data
00:08:50.640 if you put the iran war second not because the evidence shows it was the second most selected
00:08:56.460 issue on every poll question but because it aggregated to the number one issue cbs found
00:09:04.760 that most voters believed the united states made the wrong decision to take military action against
00:09:10.960 ran. Now, why did they come to that conclusion? They did it because it affected their life
00:09:16.640 negatively with a pain at the pump. All right. Let me also be clear. That also included one
00:09:22.680 quarter of Republicans who said it was a problem. Well, if one quarter of the Republicans are against
00:09:27.960 you and feel like you left them behind and weren't listening to them, there's a reason why
00:09:32.600 Republicans got decimated in the midterms. Now, the people most worried about paying for gasoline
00:09:38.780 were especially likely to oppose military action.
00:09:42.360 CBS News found that the war mattered less than the cost of living,
00:09:46.500 but those that said it was a top concern actually related it back to the cost of living.
00:09:51.720 So it's a 2x amplification here.
00:09:55.620 Now, the connection is politically so powerful.
00:10:00.300 A voter already struggling with gas and groceries
00:10:02.780 saw the war not as a separate foreign policy question,
00:10:06.540 but as another source of financial insecurity for them higher energy costs that gave them even more
00:10:13.440 of an uncertainty and the available polls support the connection they do not by the way prove exactly
00:10:20.560 how many seats the war cost republicans or isolate its impact from another economic policy so that
00:10:28.000 is actually good news for us for the next two years meaning we can fix this and clean it up
00:10:33.180 if the war in the Iran ends and then Americans say finally and then things go back to the way
00:10:38.540 they were with lower gas prices. Now let me move to Texas because Texas is the clearest warning
00:10:45.540 all right. If you look at this and this this post-mortem analysis the democratic victories
00:10:52.860 in the governor's race in the U.S. Senate race show that even long-standing Republican advantages
00:10:59.000 were vulnerable in the political climate that we're in because Republicans were so angry that
00:11:04.400 they felt like they gave the president the house and the senate and the Republicans in the house
00:11:09.000 senate did not do enough to support them and they punished them on election day now the earlier
00:11:14.320 research reported that you know the Democrats were running better than they thought they were
00:11:19.340 but again there was this idea like it's Texas they're not going to vote for James Tallarico
00:11:23.380 right well they did they're not going to vote for gina right over greg abbott they did these were
00:11:29.360 all statewide elections and they all went towards the democrats now a social media also was looked
00:11:36.920 at and and there was something else that happened in texas that's very interesting and this goes
00:11:41.300 back to nbc's exit polling um nbc states that white men all right were were r23 republican 23
00:11:49.540 white women were R13, and then minorities went massively for the Democrats. A lot of minorities
00:11:56.220 are in the lower to middle income. They live paycheck to paycheck, and they saw this as a
00:12:02.640 huge problem. Latino men went Democrat plus 19 in Texas. Latino women, all right, these are mothers,
00:12:10.100 went for the Democrats plus 42. Black men went plus Democrat plus 77. And African American women 0.96
00:12:19.120 were plus 84 for the democrats now all the groups were democrats plus 10 as well so this was a real
00:12:27.340 question of they many of these people voted for trump and the republicans last time and they felt
00:12:33.780 like the republicans took advantage of them and didn't actually do anything to help them there's
00:12:38.880 also something else and that is the coalition and it moves it moves back and forth right so the
00:12:45.060 national patterns are really really stark and if you look at them uh you look at the shifts all
00:12:51.980 right in democrat minus republican voting margins in 2020 to 2024 and then with 2024 and 2026
00:12:59.660 there was massive data here that changed voters age 18 to 29 it was a 35 point shift from 2024
00:13:08.900 to 2026 towards the democrats asian voters 25 shift towards democrats in just two years
00:13:15.900 latino men 24 shift to democrats from two years ago latino voters overall 20 shift towards the
00:13:24.660 democrats suburban voters went 20 towards the democrats compared to just two years ago now if
00:13:31.020 you break it down by voters ages 30 to 44 that's a younger group 18 point flip republican to
00:13:37.900 Democrat in just a two-year period. Latino women, 15 points towards the Democrats. Black men, 15 0.70
00:13:43.300 points towards the Democrats. Independents, 13 points towards the Democrats. And here's an
00:13:48.160 interesting one. Income under $50,000. 14-point swing to the Democrats from just two years ago.
00:13:55.040 If you have high school education or less, it was a 13-point swing from the Republicans and
00:14:00.800 Donald Trump to the Democrats in a two-year period. And men overall, an 11-point swing.
00:14:06.800 Now, the same chart shows that some of the 2024 Republican gains were not fully erased.
00:14:12.140 All right. So here's some of the silver lining.
00:14:15.000 Latino voters overall were still seven points more Republican than in 2020, 0.78
00:14:20.740 while young voters were 22 points more Democrat than they were in 2020.
00:14:24.980 So the young voters, we got them and they disappeared from us this time.
00:14:28.280 Those differences mattered.
00:14:30.720 And you look at this data and what you realize is the swing among young white men.
00:14:36.580 Well, it was at 45-point swing from just two years ago.
00:14:40.600 That is massive.
00:14:42.680 CBS reported that neither party was viewed favorably by a majority of voters
00:14:47.520 and that about one in five voters who supported Democratic House candidates
00:14:52.580 viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably.
00:14:55.940 What that tells me is that many people were voting against the status quo
00:15:01.160 rather than embracing every Democratic Socialist policy.
00:15:05.900 Now, I want to be clear. We as conservatives, we should not dismiss the results as merely an anti-Trump mood.
00:15:14.360 OK, Democrats are going to make a mistake here. They're going to believe there's a mandate for socialism.
00:15:19.560 They shouldn't because the outcome for this kumbaya ism is not what the exit poll data says.
00:15:26.340 Now, let's talk about Trump for a second. Trump's approval nationwide is about 38 percent.
00:15:31.300 and the finding is that roughly six in ten voters said he was a factor in their house vote and that
00:15:39.080 shows that the presidential's performance is tied to not only capitol hill but it mattered right so
00:15:45.380 if the president can't get the things done that he wanted to like the save america act
00:15:50.760 and it was because of the senate it still went back and people judged him because he's the leader
00:15:56.720 of the free world whether that's fair or not he did everything he could on the save america act 0.86
00:16:00.820 but there were some scumbag republicans that decided to stop it all right that's a problem
00:16:05.380 now the size of this defeat is also something that i do think needs to be put in perspective
00:16:11.340 and 2010 is a great example of the perspective i want you to understand so you realize okay
00:16:19.800 was it great it wasn't great but it honestly wasn't that bad either all right so let's go
00:16:27.080 back to 2010 to just get perspective on, look, was it a bad night Tuesday night? Yes. Was it as
00:16:34.800 bad as the Democrats had in 2010? No. Were the Democrats able to overcome it two years later
00:16:41.080 because they paid attention to what Americans said? Yes. So let me just give you 2010 to put
00:16:47.380 it in perspective, all right? In that year, that was two years after Barack Obama was elected,
00:16:53.280 OK, this was hope and change and they didn't deliver.
00:16:56.580 This was Obamacare, right?
00:16:58.220 All of that.
00:17:00.800 Republicans gained 63 House seats and six Senate seats in the midterms that year.
00:17:08.820 Now, early 2026 estimates point to a Democrat's gain of roughly 25 House seats.
00:17:14.600 All right.
00:17:14.760 They had, remember, 63 back then.
00:17:16.540 Now we're talking 25 now and seven Senate seats.
00:17:19.800 Obviously, some of this can change.
00:17:21.160 You look at that comparison.
00:17:23.280 the 2026 House swing is substantially smaller, okay, substantially smaller than the 2010 Republican
00:17:32.800 wave. Well, the Senate games are comparable, all right? Now, 2026 totals, these are, again,
00:17:40.760 I'm going with election night estimates. This isn't the final certified counts. You got to look
00:17:44.500 at places, for example, like Alaska. We may not know who the senator is from that state for several
00:17:49.500 more days but the distinction does matter all right this was a serious defeat for republicans
00:17:55.900 especially in key statewide races and among parts of the 2024 trump coalition that he built that
00:18:03.720 disappeared not let me rephrase that didn't disappear they vote against him they vote against
00:18:07.440 republicans right because they felt like the republicans lied to them they gave them power
00:18:12.200 and they didn't pay off on what they said they were going to do so i don't want you to think
00:18:17.320 that like the world's over the sky is falling now do we have to learn from this absolutely did
00:18:25.640 barack obama and the democrats learn after they got their i mean rear ends handed to them when
00:18:30.500 they lied about it you can keep your doctor if you like your doctor right i mean losing 63 house
00:18:35.060 seats is a beat down in 2010 and and less than basically two years later barack obama won
00:18:42.680 re-election. So there is more than enough time here for this to be a political warning and then
00:18:49.980 for a reversal from conservatives. And we shouldn't over-exaggerate the doom and gloom.
00:18:56.760 Now, I believe you've got to learn from your mistakes and you've got to fix it quickly.
00:19:03.620 I'm a sports analogy guy. In sports, if I had a really bad match, my coach would say,
00:19:08.340 here's what we've got to make sure we never do again.
00:19:11.340 You learn from it.
00:19:12.260 You go out there.
00:19:12.960 You play your next match.
00:19:14.020 You leave your defeat in the background.
00:19:15.460 You try to get back on a winning streak.
00:19:16.960 That is what we as conservatives need to do.
00:19:19.900 So let's talk about my initial conclusion.
00:19:24.440 And that is this.
00:19:26.560 The presidential coalition that Trump created
00:19:29.620 is not automatically a governing coalition.
00:19:34.040 That's number one.
00:19:34.960 Donald Trump did something that other Republicans just don't do well
00:19:39.840 He attracted new voters in 2024
00:19:42.800 And that included younger voters
00:19:45.760 That included Hispanic voters
00:19:47.940 That included working class Americans and union members
00:19:51.720 This was not your normal Republican traditional voter turnout
00:19:57.840 He created new areas of success with voters, alright?
00:20:03.700 The second part of this is those people that voted for Donald Trump in 2024,
00:20:07.720 they were not making a permanent pledge to the Republican Party at all.
00:20:11.960 That is a misconception.
00:20:13.380 We now know it.
00:20:14.380 And you have to go reach those people each and every election.
00:20:17.460 You cannot take them for granted.
00:20:19.040 In other words, they are not your base, okay?
00:20:22.780 They are swing voters.
00:20:24.540 And the swing voter section, I would actually argue,
00:20:27.140 has gotten bigger than at any other point in my lifetime.
00:20:30.300 That's why you're seeing these drastic swings.
00:20:32.120 There's more people that are swing voters now than there ever really was before.
00:20:36.900 So that is something we have to look at.
00:20:39.520 You've got to fight for these people.
00:20:40.980 You've got to listen to them.
00:20:42.400 You've got to make sure that you understand they didn't take a permanent pledge.
00:20:45.580 They're not card-carrying Republicans.
00:20:48.400 They are going to go to the party they believe is representing them and what they're going through at that moment.
00:20:56.220 All right, now there's another part of this that is important, and that is this.
00:21:00.000 there's this idea from many that were running for office that we should argue with the voters about
00:21:06.460 how good the economy is and that was going to be enough no we need to learn to listen to the
00:21:12.540 voters all right so the answer that we should all be understanding from this midterm is that we
00:21:19.520 should not argue with voters about how good the economy should feel or ought to feel to them
00:21:25.300 We should focus on what they're feeling.
00:21:28.740 We should focus on what they're saying.
00:21:31.080 We should focus on what their concerns and their worries are.
00:21:34.800 Because if you go out there and you start giving them economic data and numbers, it's white noise.
00:21:40.680 If you are an American that is living paycheck to paycheck, they're worried about the prices at the grocery store, the price at the pump.
00:21:51.120 They're worried about the housing costs.
00:21:52.940 They're worried about energy costs.
00:21:54.980 And all of that is about security or insecurity in your future for your family.
00:22:00.040 That's a big deal.
00:22:01.380 So that is the thing we need to learn and take away from this.
00:22:05.400 The second point is on the issue of Iran.
00:22:09.680 It scored high, but not as a foreign policy issue.
00:22:13.860 If we look at this as a foreign policy issue, then we aren't understanding the frustration that Republican voters had and the country had.
00:22:22.160 because we must explain the national security objectives
00:22:25.220 and do it better than we did because they didn't connect it there.
00:22:28.580 They just saw Iran war, I'm paying more, this is an economic cost,
00:22:33.880 this is where the public skepticism came in.
00:22:37.060 It was not about national security.
00:22:40.140 The Iran issue had nothing to do with national security to the voter in America.
00:22:43.180 So either we have to do a better job of selling it
00:22:45.400 or we have to understand that war in general right now
00:22:50.120 is something that Americans, including Republicans, don't want, want at all.
00:22:54.480 Like, they can't stand it.
00:22:56.220 Does that mean you can bomb somebody into oblivion real quick and that may be okay?
00:22:59.920 Yeah, we can discuss that.
00:23:01.300 That's a foreign policy issue.
00:23:02.960 We should have that debate.
00:23:04.520 The other thing is candidate quality, all right?
00:23:07.720 We had bad candidates that won that were terrible at governing.
00:23:12.180 We had people that put their own personal beliefs over the beliefs of their constituents.
00:23:16.400 We saw that with the Save America Act.
00:23:18.520 We saw that with people that lost in the midterms and they want revenge on Donald Trump.
00:23:22.160 They did everything it could to hurt Donald Trump going into the midterms.
00:23:24.640 And we're talking about Republicans.
00:23:26.160 So that is another takeaway that I think is very important.
00:23:29.720 Now, let me give you some data points that I also just want to kind of recap with is I, you know, kind of wrap this down into what we learned.
00:23:38.580 About 38 percent approved of Donald Trump in the early national exit polling.
00:23:44.660 That is spot on with his approval rating.
00:23:48.380 Roughly three-quarters of voters were dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
00:23:53.780 That is, again, pay attention to that.
00:23:57.100 Voters were more than twice as likely to say their finances were worse than better off.
00:24:02.600 Again, don't tell them how great the economy is if they're telling you
00:24:07.360 that they're more than twice as likely to say their finances were worse.
00:24:11.900 Nearly 9 in 10 also said cost of living was a critical or crucial or major factor
00:24:17.200 and who they voted for so you can talk about medium incomes at the highest in history and
00:24:22.720 401ks through the roof and retirement accounts in general in the stock market but if you're not
00:24:27.580 in those right in any major way and you're living paycheck to paycheck now you understand why we
00:24:33.060 lost most voters by the way said the iranian military action was the wrong decision even
00:24:38.520 about 25 percent of republicans agreed so that tells you pay attention to that foreign policy
00:24:43.940 issue. The voters most concerned about gas affordability, especially likely to oppose
00:24:50.080 the Iran war. So the two were tied together and a 35 point democratic margin swing among 18 to
00:24:57.240 29 year olds had a major impact on this election. 20 points among Latinos overall and 20 points
00:25:04.600 among suburban voters between 2024 and 2026. Those are catastrophic swings. What those voters were
00:25:12.680 saying was, I gave you power, you didn't deliver on what you said, I don't feel like my life's
00:25:17.040 better off or the economy's better off, and I'm going to vote you out of office. That is the
00:25:23.920 biggest takeaway from all of this. You had real Americans, real families that were confronting
00:25:30.820 the everyday issue of the economy. And the demographic numbers and the polling data tell
00:25:38.120 us now that where we lost ground which we should own and we lost ground was on the economy
00:25:44.560 and the way the war fed into economic anxiety and the lesson you carry into 2028 is okay
00:25:51.880 forget your economic data look at the american worker in the face and if they're not telling
00:25:58.840 you their life is better then you need to believe that there's something wrong you can't just
00:26:05.000 convince someone that things are going to get better or that things are better than what they
00:26:10.380 believe by giving them data. If they don't actually feel it, then all of it's crap. If 0.98
00:26:17.500 that's your closing argument, we would lose yet again two years from now. That is the biggest
00:26:23.960 takeaway I have from all of this data. Thank you for listening to the 47 Morning Update with Ben
00:26:29.560 ferguson please make sure you hit subscribe wherever you're listening to this podcast right
00:26:35.020 now and for more in-depth news also subscribe to the ben ferguson podcast and we will see you back
00:26:41.400 here tomorrow hey i'm jack armstrong he's joe getty we've been trying to figure out how to
00:26:46.440 describe what is armstrong and getty on demand for many years i'm gonna give it a shot so most
00:26:51.140 media is either agenda driven or they're so shallow and boring you don't learn anything
00:26:56.340 anyway. We try to get to the bottom of the
00:26:58.460 stories that are shaping our worlds and help
00:27:00.320 you understand what's actually
00:27:02.020 happening. So give it a try sometime.
00:27:04.160 Entertaining and you learn something? Where do I tune in?
00:27:06.220 Listen to Armstrong and Getty on demand on the
00:27:08.220 iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
00:27:10.240 or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:27:14.180 Hey, it's Drew Franklin from NFL Cover
00:27:16.220 Zero. The 2026 season is
00:27:18.160 underway and we are loving football
00:27:20.160 on TV. Here's what you can expect
00:27:22.080 from the podcast in our second season.
00:27:23.740 I would suggest for these preseason
00:27:25.780 games i think they should do what they do on the nfl draft you know when coverage of the nfl draft
00:27:31.680 is basically for moms and they're just like hey he has a dog named spark listen to nfl cover zero
00:27:40.540 on the iheart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts