Verdict with Ted Cruz - November 04, 2024


Election Day Eve： Where Things Stand & What the Stakes Are for America


Episode Stats


Length

37 minutes

Words per minute

171.96085

Word count

6,406

Sentence count

581

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

26

sentences flagged

Hate speech

16

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) joins Sen. Ben Fergus (D-NJ) to discuss the stakes, the lay of the land, and what to expect in the final days before Election Day.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.500 Guaranteed human.
00:00:05.220 I can't believe I'm getting to say this, Senator,
00:00:08.080 but we are right there one day before the presidential election.
00:00:15.640 Welcome to Verdict with Ted Cruz.
00:00:17.540 Ben Ferguson with you.
00:00:19.380 It seems like we've been talking about this forever,
00:00:21.940 and yet we are finally at the doorstep of finding out
00:00:25.400 who's going to be the next president of the United States of America.
00:00:28.380 Well, as they say at a monster truck rally,
00:00:31.580 tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow, dear God, this will all be over.
00:00:36.080 This long, interminable, never-ending election will be over, God willing, tomorrow.
00:00:42.320 And what we're going to talk about today, the day before Election Day, is two things.
00:00:47.540 Number one, the stakes.
00:00:49.060 What happens if Trump wins?
00:00:50.300 What happens if Kamala wins?
00:00:52.040 And number two, the lay of the land.
00:00:54.120 Where the polls are, what to expect, what tomorrow's going to look like.
00:00:57.800 Both of those, we're going to break down for you
00:01:00.060 because everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what happens.
00:01:04.280 We're also going to look at what the first hundred days are going to look like
00:01:07.740 if there is a Trump administration or a Harris administration,
00:01:11.260 and that will be the closing arguments for so many of your family members.
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00:03:15.880 Senator, you've been all over.
00:03:17.820 You've been out on the road.
00:03:19.660 I've been out on the road as well.
00:03:21.680 I've been doing a lot of TV and radio over the last couple weeks.
00:03:26.740 And if there's anything that people ask me,
00:03:28.720 if they ask me once a day, it's a thousand times a day,
00:03:30.980 it's this question.
00:03:32.940 What do you think our chances are?
00:03:34.980 How is it looking?
00:03:35.940 Is there really a chance Kamala Harris could beat Donald Trump? 0.77
00:03:39.320 I'm going to ask you the question I've been getting every day times a thousand.
00:03:42.640 Your thoughts on that to start with.
00:03:45.460 Well, look, on the last question, yes, unfortunately, there is a chance that Kamala wins.
00:03:50.260 You know, I will say a month ago, I would have put the odds of the presidential at 50-50.
00:03:56.260 I think the last two weeks have been really good.
00:03:59.760 I think the momentum is with Trump.
00:04:01.720 I think he's been doing a lot of things right.
00:04:04.540 We talked about in previous podcasts how he's been joyful, how he's been having fun.
00:04:08.860 Things like going to McDonald's, things like driving the garbage truck.
00:04:13.220 He has been behaving like a winning campaign.
00:04:16.180 I think people can pick up on that.
00:04:17.940 I also think the Kamala campaign is panicking.
00:04:20.280 I think they feel like it's slipping away from them.
00:04:23.440 If I were laying odds right now, I would put it at 60-40 that Trump wins.
00:04:29.280 Now, 60-40, that actually scares the hell out of me, because what I'm saying is I think there's a 40% chance that we wake up on Wednesday or maybe a month from Wednesday if the knuckleheads in Philadelphia and Detroit and Milwaukee are still counting votes for a month.
00:04:44.900 But whenever this is resolved, I think there's a 40% chance Kamala Harris is president.
00:04:50.460 That is terrifying, because the stakes for this country—I've never seen an election remotely this close.
00:04:58.500 And so, look, you were talking about the first 100 days.
00:05:02.520 Let's talk for a minute if Trump wins.
00:05:05.180 If Trump wins, which you and I both hope and pray is what happens, we're going to see a lot of things happen starting on January 20th.
00:05:14.740 Number one on the border, we will secure the border.
00:05:19.760 And understand, this is not going to take a year.
00:05:23.880 I don't even believe it's going to take six months.
00:05:26.140 This will happen in January and February of next year.
00:05:30.000 Why?
00:05:30.980 Because the single most important determinant of illegal immigration is one single question.
00:05:36.340 It's a policy question.
00:05:37.320 What happens when an illegal immigrant is apprehended?
00:05:41.540 And if the answer is they're put on a plane and sent home, the numbers plummet.
00:05:45.580 Understand, almost everyone that comes to this country carries a cell phone with them.
00:05:48.760 So if they get here and suddenly they're flying back, they pick up the phone and call their friends and family and say,
00:05:54.660 Hey, don't come.
00:05:55.220 They're not letting you stay.
00:05:56.080 On the other hand, if when they get here, they do what happens under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, which is they let him go and they fly him to every city in America.
00:06:05.240 Well, they've still got that cell phone.
00:06:07.160 They call it, call home and tell their friends and family, Hey, come on to America.
00:06:11.000 Once you get here, you get to stay.
00:06:13.700 Trump will end catch and release on January 20th.
00:06:17.220 And we will see the numbers plummet.
00:06:20.580 That's number one.
00:06:21.400 And by the way, on the flip side, Kamala, we've seen a decrease in illegal immigration over the last couple of months because, frankly, Kamala and Biden, they're really cynical. 0.98
00:06:32.120 They think the voters are stupid, that they know the press will dutifully report, oh, the numbers are down. 0.97
00:06:37.000 It's all solved. 1.00
00:06:38.480 If Kamala wins, God help us, the numbers will skyrocket.
00:06:41.480 We have seen 11 and a half million people in the last four years.
00:06:45.300 If Kamala is president for another four years, 11 and a half will become 25 or 30 million.
00:06:50.480 That is their objective, to invade this country with what they see as future Democrat voters, and we will see it. 0.58
00:06:58.220 It will only get worse.
00:07:00.060 So just on immigration, the delta is massive.
00:07:05.100 And not only that, but I also think we need to remind people that this administration made a deal with Mexico for them to help them get the numbers to go down temporarily heading up until Election Day.
00:07:17.400 And that will all disappear if she wins, correct?
00:07:23.080 Absolutely.
00:07:23.760 No, no, the invasion continues full force.
00:07:26.860 And I don't think we wait till January.
00:07:28.640 The invasion starts going in mid-November again.
00:07:32.180 If Kamala wins, then they're like, all right, no need to pretend anymore.
00:07:35.560 Let's go.
00:07:36.140 Let's bring in. 0.63
00:07:37.220 We brought in 11 and a half.
00:07:38.680 I bet you we can do much more than that.
00:07:40.560 I mean, it will only escalate.
00:07:42.200 Remember, the government of Mexico announced just a few months ago that they were paying for buses to take illegal immigrants from Mexico's southern border all the way through Mexico and drop them off at their northern border, at our southern border.
00:07:56.280 By the way, the government of Mexico is putting soldiers that were armed police officers on those buses to take them up there.
00:08:02.260 They're doing it because Kamala Harris took the CBP1 app, which enables an illegal immigrant to apply to come into this country illegally, and they expanded it to now it applies to all of Mexico.
00:08:15.440 So this is – Kamala is trying to make the invasion of this country more rapid and more efficient.
00:08:23.220 And Mexico will be eagerly complicit if, God forbid, she's president. 1.00
00:08:28.660 Let me ask you another question before we get into the Senate races and the control of the Senate and the House and also some of the other big issues that I think people are going to think about on Election Day, which include the economy.
00:08:40.960 But the second most question I'm getting the most, and I want to know if you're getting this as well, is will this election be fair, and how do we not know who the winner is on election night?
00:08:55.340 I think most people believe we won't know on election night who's going to win between Trump and Harris just because that seems to be this insane trend that in 2024 we can't count votes.
00:09:04.560 What are the odds we don't know who the president is on election night?
00:09:09.220 Look, I think they're quite high. 0.94
00:09:10.960 Because Democrats are both incompetent and they are engaged in malfeasance. 0.96
00:09:16.400 Listen, Texas. 0.98
00:09:17.240 Texas is the second largest state in the country.
00:09:19.840 It is smaller only than California.
00:09:22.280 It's bigger than New York.
00:09:23.080 It's bigger than Florida.
00:09:24.380 We will be done on election night.
00:09:27.880 On Tuesday night, I'm going to predict by midnight, we will know the result in the presidential race.
00:09:34.800 We'll know the result in my race in the Senate race.
00:09:37.080 We will know the result in the congressional races.
00:09:40.020 There might be an individual state rep race where it is within a few hundred votes where there has to be a recount.
00:09:47.140 That sometimes happens on an individual district.
00:09:49.400 But we will have the results in almost every race, if not every single race, by the end of election night in Texas. 0.97
00:09:58.260 Now, if in Texas we can count our damn votes, why can't they do that in Philadelphia? 0.94
00:10:03.020 Why can't they do that in Detroit? 0.98
00:10:04.780 Why can't they do that in Milwaukee?
00:10:06.540 Why can't they do that in Atlanta?
00:10:08.340 Why can't they do that in blue cities in swing states?
00:10:13.600 And the answer, sadly, is that I think the Democrats running them, they want to delay it.
00:10:20.060 And will there be voter fraud on election day?
00:10:23.480 Yes.
00:10:24.180 And there has been voter fraud in every election as long as there have been elections.
00:10:29.500 I've joked if you went back to the cavemen when they were electing the grand poobah. 1.00
00:10:34.160 Ah, somebody stuffed the ballot box.
00:10:36.360 That is human nature.
00:10:37.960 Now, there are two things that are good news.
00:10:41.000 Number one, in red states, in states like Texas, like Florida, like Georgia, we have seen those states pass serious voter integrity laws.
00:10:51.560 So it is much harder to cheat in red states.
00:10:55.400 It's not impossible, but it's harder.
00:10:56.940 We have things like photo ID laws.
00:10:59.920 We have things like banning ballot harvesting that make it significantly more difficult to cheat.
00:11:06.020 In blue states or purple states, they have not passed election integrity laws.
00:11:11.200 And the reason they haven't is Democrats have decided voter fraud is good for them.
00:11:16.840 And by the way, this is new.
00:11:18.320 A decade ago, like when I first got to the Senate 12 years ago, you had Democrats who were willing to be reasonable on enhancing election integrity.
00:11:27.520 This has happened in the last few years that Democrats as a party have all decided we like voter fraud.
00:11:34.340 The more of it, the better.
00:11:36.540 And it is a very cynical decision.
00:11:38.660 I think they've decided voter fraud is good for them politically.
00:11:41.560 So blue states have done nothing, zero, to enhance election integrity.
00:11:47.420 We talked about in the last podcast how in Michigan, a Chinese national voted illegally in the presidential election. 0.96
00:11:54.900 The Chinese national came in and used his student ID and the idiot Democrats in Michigan have decided a student ID is acceptable to vote, even though you don't have to be an American citizen to get a student ID. 0.96
00:12:05.580 So in blue states and purple states, there will be fraud and there will be more fraud than there is in red states. 0.99
00:12:15.680 Here's the second level of good news.
00:12:17.480 Historically, voter fraud only matters at the margin.
00:12:21.620 They say it only matters when it's close.
00:12:24.580 What that means is we've got to win by a big enough margin.
00:12:28.360 They can't steal it.
00:12:29.500 As Trump puts it, we need to win too big to rig.
00:12:33.080 And so I will say, especially in these battleground states, we need to show up.
00:12:38.280 If it's a half point or a point margin, we could be in trouble.
00:12:42.260 If we win by five points, we'll be fine.
00:12:44.500 And so we just need to make sure people turn out in big enough numbers that the election cannot be stolen.
00:12:51.000 Canadian women are looking for more, more to themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders and the world around them. 0.96
00:12:57.260 And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast.
00:13:00.080 You talk about turnout, and this comes back to the issues.
00:13:25.540 I still think this election is economy first nationwide, and then safety, and that obviously encompasses the border.
00:13:35.580 What are your thoughts on what is driving people to the polls?
00:13:38.500 Because the early voting numbers nationwide are very big compared to what we've seen in the past.
00:13:45.080 Yeah, if you look at the state of Texas, we are projecting north of 70 percent, maybe north of 75 percent of the votes have already been cast, have been cast in early votes.
00:13:53.980 That's not true in every state, but we're seeing a lot of early votes being cast all across the country.
00:13:59.780 Listen, it varies state by state.
00:14:02.160 Almost every public opinion poll that is done, the top two issues are either illegal immigration slash border security or economy slash inflation.
00:14:12.060 And they both tend to be at about 30 percent, and one or the other is one and the other is two, and they go back and forth.
00:14:19.540 Typically, the third issue is crime, and that tends to be around 9 or 10 percent, although you could say crime and illegal immigration, they're certainly intertwined.
00:14:28.680 So there's no doubt those are the two monster issues.
00:14:34.400 On the border, voters that are voting on illegal immigration are overwhelmingly voting for Donald Trump or overwhelmingly voting for Republicans.
00:14:42.460 On the economy, it's a little bit more mixed, but inflation is a real problem, and it's hurting people.
00:14:49.340 And let's go back to the first 100 days.
00:14:50.800 If Trump wins, we will see the regulatory assault that has been launched over the last four years on oil and gas end immediately.
00:15:01.480 And you might think, all right, if you're in Texas, you get oil and gas are intertwined with jobs.
00:15:07.680 But if you're in another state, you may say, okay, what do I care about energy?
00:15:10.520 You need to understand, assaulting American energy is a massive driver of inflation because energy costs are inputs to everything.
00:15:23.120 Let's take food.
00:15:24.480 You might think, well, what does energy have to do with food?
00:15:26.540 Well, for one thing, the fertilizers that farmers use have natural gas as a major input in them, and it drives up the cost of fertilizer.
00:15:35.500 Not only that, every tractor, every bit of farm equipment uses diesel.
00:15:41.320 Not only that, once you have reaped your crops, you take trucks to take them to the warehouse, take them to the grocery store.
00:15:50.460 And so the cost of energy kicks in at every single level and drives it up.
00:15:56.280 We will see again on January 20th, I believe, of next year, Trump will end that assault on energy.
00:16:02.800 That is going to result in significantly increasing American oil production, natural gas production.
00:16:09.760 That is going to result in driving down costs.
00:16:12.260 That will mean not only costs that you pay at the gas pump, not only costs that you pay for paying your heating bill, but also costs that you pay in everything else.
00:16:21.660 And I think we will see beyond that.
00:16:23.440 We will see across the board an effort to repeal job-killing regulations, and that in turn, I believe, will stimulate economic growth, which again brings inflation down as you get growth moving forward.
00:16:36.220 So on the economy, I think there's a big upside if Trump wins.
00:16:40.820 If Kamala wins, we're going to see more of the same.
00:16:43.700 We're going to see the assault on American energy will only get worse.
00:16:47.560 And listen, there's a big difference between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. 0.94
00:16:53.020 Joe Biden's a puppet. 0.94
00:16:54.240 He is mentally, he's not there anymore. 0.98
00:16:57.340 I think he is having his strings pulled by others.
00:17:01.340 Kamala is a true believer.
00:17:03.120 I think every bad policy of Joe Biden gets worse under Kamala Harris.
00:17:09.200 No doubt.
00:17:10.220 And I think that's the reason why we see these massive early voting numbers.
00:17:13.320 That obviously is encouraging.
00:17:14.900 Let me tell you, with this election, I've been burning the candle at both ends, and I'm not going to lie to you.
00:17:21.200 I'm ready for this election to be over.
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00:18:54.160 So now let's get back to the first 100 days.
00:18:56.460 And this really comes down to, I call it the closing arguments.
00:19:00.860 There are a lot of people listening right now.
00:19:03.840 They may have family members.
00:19:05.320 They may have friends that are still on the fence deciding if they're going to vote or not on election day.
00:19:09.220 Take the time to do it.
00:19:10.720 And I think we've got to arm them with the important data of compare and contrast.
00:19:16.020 So what are some of the other things that are going to look very different in the first 100 days from a Harris campaign if she wins to a Trump administration if he wins?
00:19:25.400 Well, as I said, on the border, Trump will secure the border.
00:19:29.440 Kamala will open the borders even more. 0.89
00:19:31.820 On energy, Trump will end the war on energy, which will reduce inflation.
00:19:36.440 Kamala will only increase the war on energy, which will increase inflation.
00:19:41.080 On taxes.
00:19:42.040 Now, this question depends on what happens in the House and Senate.
00:19:46.100 If Kamala wins and Republicans win the Senate, and I think there is a good chance right now Republicans win the Senate, although we need to take that deadly seriously.
00:19:54.440 Because if the Democrats get the White House, the House, and the Senate, the country, I think, could be irreparably damaged.
00:19:59.620 But if we end up with Kamala in the White House and a Republican Senate, it means we will not see a massive tax increase.
00:20:08.520 That's good.
00:20:09.580 But if Trump wins and we have a Republican Senate in the House, we will see the 2017 tax cuts extended.
00:20:16.320 Most of the 2017 tax cuts expire next year.
00:20:20.700 Trump has said he wants to extend them.
00:20:22.700 Kamala has said she wants to let them expire.
00:20:24.740 The Wall Street Journal calls this a $6 trillion election.
00:20:29.620 That's the delta of how much your taxes are going up versus how much they're going down or staying down, depending on if the Democrats or Republicans win.
00:20:39.700 If Trump wins, for example, and we have a Republican House and Senate, I think we'll see things like his proposal for no tax on tips.
00:20:46.080 I think we'll pass that.
00:20:47.340 As you know, I am the author of the no tax on tips legislation in the Senate.
00:20:51.580 My legislation already has bipartisan support.
00:20:54.320 I think we'll pass it into law.
00:20:55.400 He is also advocating no tax on Social Security benefits.
00:21:00.080 That's something I very much agree with.
00:21:01.840 I think we'll get that done.
00:21:03.060 That will impact.
00:21:04.040 You want to talk about seniors, seniors struggling with with inflation.
00:21:09.200 No tax on Social Security benefits will be a real benefit to seniors quickly.
00:21:14.040 So on taxes, there's a big, big delta.
00:21:16.660 But but let's also touch on foreign policy.
00:21:20.600 If Trump wins, I think both of the wars that are ongoing right now and next year, I think the war on Ukraine ends, the war in Ukraine ends.
00:21:29.600 And I think Trump forces a negotiated settlement.
00:21:32.700 I think Russia will lose.
00:21:33.960 It will not be a victory for Putin.
00:21:35.880 But Trump will also say we're not going to write checks indefinitely in this and be done.
00:21:41.840 And I think we'll get it resolved.
00:21:43.420 I think Putin is scared of Trump.
00:21:45.340 Putin is not scared of Kamala Harris.
00:21:47.180 So I think that will resolve.
00:21:48.460 And on Israel, I think the war in Israel resolves as well.
00:21:51.860 And I think it resolves with Israel defeating Hamas.
00:21:55.300 What Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have done is undermine Israel consistently.
00:22:00.260 That has extended the war.
00:22:02.100 That has encouraged Hamas. 0.99
00:22:03.400 That has encouraged Hezbollah. 1.00
00:22:04.720 That has encouraged Iran. 1.00
00:22:06.240 If Trump wins, we see the oil sanctions on Iran being enforced again and their money suddenly plummets.
00:22:12.720 The money going to Hamas and Hezbollah plummets.
00:22:15.220 And I actually think America standing strongly with Israel accelerates the resolution of this war. 0.62
00:22:20.940 So the upside on foreign policy is very high.
00:22:24.500 But if Kamala wins, I think we would see a Kamala Harris administration undermine Israel even more.
00:22:31.100 I think it extends the war.
00:22:32.720 I think it encourages Hamas. 1.00
00:22:34.240 It encourages Hezbollah. 1.00
00:22:35.660 I think it encourages Iran. 1.00
00:22:37.300 You see Kamala continuing to flow billions of dollars to Iran.
00:22:42.420 You know, it was amazing, Ben.
00:22:43.680 When Kamala Harris did the 60 Minutes interview, they asked her, what's the biggest threat to America?
00:22:49.240 And she said, Iran.
00:22:49.960 And apparently 60 Minutes doesn't actually employ real journalists because they didn't ask the obvious follow-up.
00:22:57.000 Well, wait, if Iran is the biggest threat to America right now in your judgment, why did you flow $100 billion to Iran?
00:23:04.940 Why are you funding the people who want to murder us?
00:23:07.600 They didn't ask her that.
00:23:08.820 And she has no answer to that.
00:23:10.120 She can't give an answer to that.
00:23:11.300 But if she wins, the $100 billion that has gone to Iran becomes $200 billion or more.
00:23:17.460 And that means Hamas gets more money.
00:23:19.240 Hezbollah gets more money. 0.81
00:23:20.360 More Israelis die. 1.00
00:23:21.340 More Jews die. 1.00
00:23:22.140 More Americans die. 0.99
00:23:23.020 More of our allies die.
00:23:24.200 The world gets more dangerous.
00:23:25.500 So I will say on foreign policy, the consequences are massive and really frightening.
00:23:34.620 You put this together.
00:23:37.880 I call it the trifecta.
00:23:39.000 You've got a security issue at home with an open border, the crime.
00:23:44.320 You've got inflation, the economy, and you have a foreign policy.
00:23:48.840 And yet we're still having this real conversation, Senator, about there's a real chance Harris could win this thing.
00:23:57.580 There is part of me that just steps back and goes, how is that even possible?
00:24:01.680 And then I answer the question.
00:24:03.260 It's because we've become so tribal in this country, right?
00:24:06.120 I mean, let's be honest.
00:24:07.480 I think 48%, 48.5% are hardcore Democrats.
00:24:11.540 48% are hardcore Republicans.
00:24:13.840 You're fighting over 2% or 3% in the middle.
00:24:16.680 And so it doesn't matter who the Democrats run.
00:24:18.840 I think Harris is proof of that, right?
00:24:21.120 She was a terrible VP candidate or presidential candidate the first time around. 1.00
00:24:25.780 She had one of the lowest approval ratings in history of a VP.
00:24:29.000 And yet now all of a sudden it was a coronation no one voted for.
00:24:32.480 Let's not forget that.
00:24:33.640 You have the corruption of the Biden family that should have been hanging overhead.
00:24:36.960 Complete disconnect there because we are so divided as a country.
00:24:41.000 And that concerns me as well.
00:24:43.860 Yeah, look, I don't think we are that divided.
00:24:46.460 I don't think it's 48-48 in terms of tribalism.
00:24:49.600 I think there are a number of people who are not very engaged in politics and who the media
00:24:55.940 is deliberately deceiving.
00:24:57.520 And we need to have people understand the stakes of it.
00:25:00.040 I don't think 48% of the country are hardcore Democrats.
00:25:03.740 In fact, I think this country is solidly center-right.
00:25:07.240 But we need to move them.
00:25:08.300 We need to persuade them.
00:25:09.240 And it's where the media being corrupt is such a problem.
00:25:12.200 And so, listen, on the merits, we ought to be winning 65-35 everywhere.
00:25:18.500 But we're not.
00:25:19.460 So let's break it down.
00:25:20.800 Let's run through the swing states.
00:25:22.460 Let's start with Pennsylvania.
00:25:24.360 Pennsylvania is the most important swing state.
00:25:26.620 It's the largest swing state.
00:25:28.040 If you look at right now the RealClearPolitics average, Trump is winning, but barely.
00:25:35.260 The average right now is Trump at 48.3 and Kamala Harris at 48.0. 0.88
00:25:41.760 So Trump is up 0.03.
00:25:45.040 And to give you a sense, at this point, two days to the election, Biden was up 4.3 and Clinton
00:25:51.200 was up 2.8.
00:25:52.240 And by the way, Clinton was up 2.8 and Trump won in 2016.
00:25:55.720 Now, if you look at the most recent polls, let me just go through the most recent ones.
00:26:00.580 The most recent one was New York Times-Siena.
00:26:02.840 That was a tie, 48 to 48.
00:26:04.860 The one before that was Trump was plus 1.
00:26:07.160 The one before that was Trump plus 2.
00:26:08.680 The one before that was Trump plus 1.
00:26:10.420 The one before that was Harris plus 2.
00:26:12.340 The one before that was a tie.
00:26:14.040 The one before that was Harris plus 2.
00:26:15.860 The one before that was Harris plus 1.
00:26:17.400 The one before that was Trump plus 2.
00:26:19.640 So the long and short of it is Pennsylvania is really damn close.
00:26:24.160 Let's go through the other swing states.
00:26:26.640 Arizona.
00:26:27.920 Arizona, I feel better about.
00:26:29.340 I think Trump is going to win Arizona.
00:26:31.260 The current average is Trump plus 2.6.
00:26:35.720 Here are the last several polls.
00:26:38.340 The most recent, Trump plus 3.
00:26:40.360 Before that, Trump plus 4.
00:26:41.740 Before that, Trump plus 6.
00:26:43.440 Before that, Trump plus 1.
00:26:44.800 Before that, Trump plus 2.
00:26:46.040 Before that, Trump plus 8.
00:26:47.520 Before that, Trump plus 2.
00:26:48.820 Before that, a tie.
00:26:49.740 Before that, Harris plus 1.
00:26:51.520 So it's been pretty consistent for a while that Trump's got a lead.
00:26:55.140 I think we win Arizona.
00:26:57.760 How about Nevada?
00:27:00.180 Nevada, Trump's got a lead, but it's closer.
00:27:03.580 The average in Nevada is Trump plus 1.
00:27:06.740 What are the most recent polls?
00:27:08.380 And this is a lot more spotty.
00:27:10.140 The most recent poll is Harris plus 3.
00:27:14.300 Before that, Trump plus 6.
00:27:17.800 Before that, Harris plus 1.
00:27:20.900 Before that, Trump plus 6.
00:27:24.000 Before that, Harris plus 1.
00:27:26.420 Before that, Trump plus 2.
00:27:28.240 Before that, a tie.
00:27:29.820 So Nevada, it depends on the turnout.
00:27:33.500 It's bumpy.
00:27:34.480 I mean, we are leading in Nevada right now, but narrowly.
00:27:39.060 All right, how about Wisconsin?
00:27:41.480 Wisconsin is a really, really important swing state.
00:27:44.860 After Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are the two most important swing states.
00:27:50.940 The current Real Clear Politics average, Harris is up 0.3%.
00:27:57.400 Here are the most recent polls.
00:28:00.340 Harris plus 2.
00:28:01.960 Before that, Trump plus 1.
00:28:04.140 Before that, Harris plus 1.
00:28:05.800 Before that, Trump plus 1.
00:28:07.040 Before that, Harris plus 2.
00:28:08.500 Before that, Trump plus 3.
00:28:10.180 Before that, a tie.
00:28:11.200 Before that, a tie.
00:28:12.840 So, Wisconsin is another one that is razor thin.
00:28:18.040 How about Michigan?
00:28:20.680 Michigan, the average right now is Harris plus 0.9.
00:28:26.100 Here are the most recent polls.
00:28:28.420 The most recent is a tie.
00:28:30.940 Before that, Trump plus 1.
00:28:32.520 Before that, a tie.
00:28:33.400 Before that, Harris plus 2.
00:28:34.920 Before that, Trump plus 2.
00:28:36.420 Before that, Harris plus 1.
00:28:37.760 Then Harris plus 3.
00:28:38.840 Then Harris plus 1.
00:28:40.060 Then a tie.
00:28:41.680 Michigan is close, but according to the public polling, the Democrats have a slight advantage.
00:28:47.640 Let's take North Carolina.
00:28:49.720 North Carolina, I think we're going to win North Carolina.
00:28:52.580 The current average is Trump plus 1.5.
00:28:55.940 Here are the most recent polls.
00:28:58.680 There was one that just came out, New York Times-Siena, that showed Harris plus 2.
00:29:03.340 But that's an outlier.
00:29:04.940 Here are all the previous polls.
00:29:06.260 Trump plus 2.
00:29:07.000 Trump plus 4.
00:29:07.860 Trump plus 3.
00:29:08.980 Trump plus 2.
00:29:09.780 Trump plus 3.
00:29:10.580 Trump plus 1.
00:29:11.760 Harris plus 1.
00:29:12.780 Tie.
00:29:13.880 I think we'll end up winning North Carolina.
00:29:16.240 But an open question in North Carolina is what is the impact of the hurricane, and many of the areas hit are redder parts of the state.
00:29:26.100 Does that depress turnout?
00:29:27.920 I certainly hope not, but that is an X factor that no one has a firm answer.
00:29:33.460 All right.
00:29:33.800 Final swing state to talk about.
00:29:35.720 Georgia.
00:29:36.820 I think we'll win Georgia as well.
00:29:39.240 The current average is Trump plus 1.9.
00:29:42.320 Here are the most recent polls.
00:29:46.060 The New York Times-Siena poll showed Harris plus 1.
00:29:49.260 But again, that was an outlier.
00:29:50.900 Here are the previous polls before that.
00:29:53.120 Trump plus 1.
00:29:53.960 Trump plus 2.
00:29:54.780 Trump plus 5.
00:29:55.640 Trump plus 1.
00:29:56.740 Trump plus 2.
00:29:57.540 Trump plus 2.
00:29:58.400 Tie.
00:29:58.820 Trump plus 1.
00:29:59.640 Trump plus 6.
00:30:01.180 At the end of the day, I think we win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona.
00:30:06.400 And Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 0.97
00:30:12.440 Damned if I know. 0.98
00:30:13.960 Trump wins those, he wins. 0.91
00:30:16.580 But if we don't, we could be looking at President Kamala Harris.
00:30:20.660 And that is the part that is obviously very scary.
00:30:23.820 I want to ask you a final overview.
00:30:26.940 What is the closing argument?
00:30:28.640 What is your challenge to the listeners of Verdict?
00:30:31.220 What is it that they really need to be focused on the last 24 hours?
00:30:35.100 It's their final show before Election Day.
00:30:39.840 And before I get your answer on that, I want to tell you about Patriot Mobile.
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00:32:56.420 Final question, Senator.
00:32:58.220 Closing argument to the audience of verdict.
00:33:00.860 This is our last show before Election Day.
00:33:02.940 What is your challenge to them?
00:33:05.280 Listen, the question in every presidential election is,
00:33:08.020 are you better off now than you were four years ago?
00:33:10.760 On the merits, it's not even close.
00:33:13.260 You look at the economy.
00:33:14.320 The economy is a train wreck.
00:33:15.660 Inflation is a train wreck.
00:33:17.120 The border is worse than a train wreck.
00:33:20.000 National security, both public safety.
00:33:22.920 We are seeing violent criminal illegal aliens being released every day. 0.79
00:33:26.460 They are murdering Americans. 1.00
00:33:28.780 They are raping women. 1.00
00:33:29.980 They are raping and murdering children. 1.00
00:33:32.380 Our safety is seriously compromised.
00:33:34.700 We've seen the greatest, I think, the greatest risk of a terrorist attack we've ever seen from our open border inviting terrorists in this country.
00:33:42.280 And the world's on fire.
00:33:44.280 Think back under Donald Trump.
00:33:46.000 And we had Donald Trump as president, a Republican Senate, a Republican House.
00:33:49.160 We had peace.
00:33:49.900 We had prosperity.
00:33:50.880 We had booming economic growth.
00:33:53.040 People's lives were better.
00:33:54.580 Millions of people were coming off food stamps.
00:33:56.520 Millions of people were moving into prosperity.
00:33:58.860 Wages were going up.
00:34:00.680 Safety and security was enhanced.
00:34:02.940 The border was the safest it had been in 45 years.
00:34:07.420 Those are the basic facts.
00:34:10.160 That's the difference.
00:34:11.180 And so I want to say, listen, the verdict listeners, I'm going to say a little bit selfishly, I think we have the smartest, best informed, most patriotic, most amazing listeners in the planet.
00:34:23.840 You guys are part of this discussion.
00:34:26.520 Listen, Ben and I, all right, it is right now Sunday night.
00:34:31.900 It is 1.04 a.m.
00:34:33.680 So it actually is Monday morning.
00:34:36.080 Yeah, you're not lying.
00:34:36.920 It is 1.04 a.m.
00:34:38.780 It is 1.04 a.m.
00:34:40.240 I've spent the entire day on the campaign trail.
00:34:42.700 I am bleary-eyed and exhausted, and I'm going to spend all day tomorrow on the campaign trail.
00:34:47.740 But Ben and I do this, and Ben's got to get up at, like, I don't know, 2.30 in the morning or something to do his morning show.
00:34:53.460 It's a little bit crazy.
00:34:54.340 I don't actually think Ben sleeps.
00:34:56.340 But we do this for a reason, which is that our listeners want to know the truth, want to know what's happening, want to be informed, want to understand how do we save America?
00:35:08.360 How do we defend the Constitution?
00:35:09.720 How do we defend freedom?
00:35:10.960 How do we fight?
00:35:13.140 This country, I believe with all my heart, is the greatest country in the history of the world, and I think our country is hanging by a thread.
00:35:21.600 And so I want to say, look, I have every confidence that every verdict listener has already voted early or is going to vote on Tuesday.
00:35:30.480 So I'm not even going to insult you by telling you to vote, because if you're listening to verdict, if you're a regular listener, you're going to vote.
00:35:36.760 You love America, and you're going to vote no matter what.
00:35:39.780 So I want to encourage you, of course you're going to do that, but get others to vote.
00:35:43.940 On Tuesday, seriously spend time.
00:35:47.000 Sit down and make phone calls.
00:35:48.280 Drive someone to the polls.
00:35:50.220 Call, you know, call somebody.
00:35:52.580 Call your sister, your son, your next-door neighbor, your co-worker.
00:35:56.100 Call somebody and say, look, this election matters.
00:35:59.000 If you get two, three, four, five people to vote who wouldn't have voted otherwise, you can change the outcome.
00:36:03.980 And so I just want to have a call to action across this country.
00:36:09.900 I know you love our country.
00:36:13.240 I'm really frightened about this election.
00:36:15.100 I'm hopeful.
00:36:16.200 I'm optimistic.
00:36:17.240 I said I'm 60-40, but that 40 scares the hell out of me.
00:36:21.380 So I want to call on our verdict listeners.
00:36:23.720 Do not let the 40 come to pass.
00:36:25.540 Spend your time Monday and Tuesday getting people to show up and vote on Election Day so that when we're sitting there Tuesday night, we are celebrating and we're not horrified and weeping for our country.
00:36:41.180 Amen to that.
00:36:42.680 We will be back with you in some capacity, hopefully on Election Night, and we'll at least be able to talk more to you then.
00:36:51.260 Don't forget, we do the show Monday, Wednesday, Friday.
00:36:54.140 Share this podcast, please.
00:36:56.000 Hopefully it will inspire others to go vote.
00:36:59.420 And make sure you grab my podcast.
00:37:01.520 I'll keep you updated as well.
00:37:02.720 The Ben Ferguson podcast as well on Election Day.
00:37:06.400 I'll have that for you in the morning.
00:37:08.240 And the Senator and I will see you back here tomorrow.
00:37:11.840 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:37:14.380 Guaranteed Human.