Western Standard - THE PIPELINE： Will Kenney replace Poilievre？

00:00:00.000 Today is July 29th, 2026.

00:00:27.240 I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard.

00:00:29.540 and you're watching the pipeline i've got our normal crew here nigel hanaford cory morgan dave

00:00:36.100 naylor welcome gentlemen good to be here tighten up our introduction here no waste everyone's time

00:00:41.380 as much uh just quick reminder to everybody uh if you're not yet a member uh subscriber of the

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00:00:51.220 also just launched our editor circle if you haven't had enough of well the four of us here

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00:01:05.220 talk about what stories you liked, what ones you think we could have done better on.

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00:01:19.180 You can now do that at westernstandard.news.

00:01:22.780 We're going to talk about the trade war.

00:01:24.960 I think we're going to piss everyone off. 1.00

00:01:27.500 I at least think everyone's being an idiot. 1.00

00:01:29.840 I don't, sometimes war, there is no good guy. 1.00

00:01:32.980 Sometimes everyone's a bad guy.

00:01:35.200 I kind of feel like, like it's the Eastern Front or something here.

00:01:38.480 There's just no good guys in this fight right now. 1.00

00:01:40.860 And we're all being idiots. 0.99

00:01:43.120 Jason Kenney, pretty clearly running at this point to replace Pierre Polyev. 1.00

00:01:50.280 We're going to tease that out a little bit.

00:01:52.480 But first, we'll start here close to home.

00:01:56.100 Elections Alberta tilting the field for the Federalist side in the independence referendum that's coming up.

00:02:04.900 You know, there are very, there's a bunch of rules that get changed every couple of years trying to plug this loophole into that loophole.

00:02:12.000 Water in politics, money in politics is like water.

00:02:15.260 It's just going to find a way.

00:02:16.580 There's no way to keep it out.

00:02:18.740 So governments are constantly trying to stick their finger in the crack in the dam, plug the leak, and then the money just moves somewhere else.

00:02:29.380 That's the way it works.

00:02:30.140 But there's pretty clear rules around this stuff, and if you're campaigning in an election or if you're campaigning on a question in a referendum that's taking place in Alberta, you're required to register as a TPA, a third-party advertiser.

00:02:43.100 And a bunch of groups have. Every single group on the independent side has. Some of the smaller groups on the Federalist side have. But the biggest single Federalist group, the one that actually led the anti-independence petition to have a referendum, take back Forever Canada, Thomas Lukasik's group there, clearly the biggest of the Federalist groups, particularly on the left.

00:03:08.420 but for some reason

00:03:10.880 it's not a campaign

00:03:12.720 they have campaign signs, they have campaign

00:03:15.240 offices, they have campaign buses, they have

00:03:17.060 campaign literature

00:03:17.880 they have all the hallmarks

00:03:20.760 of a fairly big campaign

00:03:22.380 but for some reason

00:03:23.880 Elections Alberta says, no, that's not

00:03:27.060 a campaign

00:03:27.540 Corey, I know you have your own

00:03:30.320 third party advertising group

00:03:32.120 you just kind of started out of your garage, but maybe a little thing

00:03:34.440 it's, I had

00:03:36.700 by chance i actually uh saw it on the weekend i don't motorcycle trouble coming through your

00:03:41.880 area i i saw your uh your shop there you run and uh all the trouble you've gotten yourself into

00:03:46.940 uh but why on earth is elections alberta saying that what you are doing which is that you know

00:03:55.820 it's a lot but it's a much smaller scale uh what you're doing has to be registered and you have to

00:04:01.260 report all your finances and who donates the money but forever canada the biggest of the

00:04:06.320 anti-independence organizations is not a campaign and they don't have to.

00:04:11.100 The why is the big mystery that I don't know and nobody else quite knows. I mean,

00:04:14.920 people are speculating about why the chief electoral officer refuses to call a spade a

00:04:20.800 spade in this case. And it's just to the point of so undeniable. I wonder if Lukasik isn't trying

00:04:28.220 to have a lark on Albertans with this. And it's got me floored. I listened on talk radio the other

00:04:35.800 day on Courtney Terrio's show and Lukasik was actually on it. And Lukasik's case is saying,

00:04:42.600 well, we'll comply, but Elections Alberta hasn't asked us to. Well, that's like, I can't go 180

00:04:50.600 on the highway and then claim, well, the police never asked me to stop. You know, the speed limit,

00:04:55.080 you follow it. It's just a level and level of absurdity. One of the things Lukasik did say,

00:05:01.720 because the host, you know, to his credit did question him a bit. Said, well, how much have

00:05:05.400 you raised? He said, well, we're transparent. Well, how much have you raised? Well, we're being

00:05:08.120 transparent. Well, how much have you raised? And he said, oh, I don't know, half a million maybe.

00:05:12.360 Okay. Well, that's the most transparency we've seen from so far. Just to lay out for a lot of

00:05:17.720 people who don't follow all these rules, what we are bound by is third party advertisers.

00:05:22.440 I can't take a contribution from anybody outside of the province of Alberta. And I think a lot of

00:05:26.840 these rules aren't unreasonable. I mean, it's supposed to be a local event.

00:05:29.880 And Thomas Lukasik has explicitly solicited donations from outside Alberta, maybe even outside Canada, we don't know.

00:05:36.060 We don't know. We have no way to know.

00:05:38.860 We can't take more than $5,000 from any individual or corporation.

00:05:42.640 That's a maximum, and that's spread between the TPAs too, so you can't give five to each of them.

00:05:46.760 You can only give five per election, and you can only raise a maximum of $607,000 for the whole campaign,

00:05:54.120 which sounds like a lot of money, but when you look at a general election,

00:05:56.760 a political party will spend millions and millions of dollars, $607,000 to try and campaign to a

00:06:01.340 whole province is limited. I thought that cap, I'll never reach it, but I know I went and raised

00:06:05.520 $150,000 so far somehow. And who knows, I might hit against that. I hope not because I'm already

00:06:10.320 exhausted, but I'm still asking. We're in for the campaign for the whole. So not unreasonable

00:06:15.620 things. Weekly, we have to report. We have to fill out this form. That's a real pain. You got

00:06:19.420 to actually do it donor by donor with a dropdown window and you put it all onto Elections Alberta.

00:06:23.740 There's another aspect of it, the disclosure. Anybody who donates more than $250 to your

00:06:30.620 third party advertiser, their name will be published on Elections Alberta website.

00:06:34.860 You know, it doesn't give all the rest of their information, but it does say that.

00:06:37.260 And is it limited only to individuals?

00:06:38.860 And corporations.

00:06:39.820 And corporations.

00:06:40.700 Yeah. So these are some pretty big things though. You know, when we are constrained by those,

00:06:46.940 I mean, I did have anecdotally an individual was saying, well, you know, I'd like to give 10,000,

00:06:51.900 can we find a way to do it? I said, no, I'm going to get myself in that soup. I really appreciate it.

00:06:55.640 But, you know, you want to form a couple of corporations and give it in, you know, we'll do

00:06:58.920 it. But that's the way these rules work and we just won't change. And there's people, there's

00:07:04.440 interests who have a big interest in swaying this election. So it wouldn't be beyond belief that

00:07:10.020 there could be some very large funders behind Mr. Lukasik's campaign. But again, the big mystery is

00:07:15.600 why on earth will the elections officer not admit it's a campaign? Why are they giving him a pass?

00:07:22.660 There have been complaints. It sounds like there's going to be legal action going against

00:07:25.540 Elections Alberta pretty soon because it's just as clear as day. As you said, there's campaign

00:07:30.600 officers. They say campaign on the sign. But it's not a campaign. Yeah. Lukasik said to the BBC in

00:07:36.360 an interview, he said, we must win this referendum. Like he's taking a side in the referendum.

00:07:41.800 There's no definitions left of where he hasn't proven he's campaigning.

00:07:46.160 The only person in Alberta that doesn't believe he's campaigning is the chief electoral officer.

00:07:50.140 The question is why, and I hate to say it, but it comes down to two things. 0.98

00:07:53.660 Either he's biased or he's inept.

00:07:57.060 But both cases, this is the person in charge of our democratic institutions. 0.96

00:08:00.780 And this is very serious.

00:08:02.000 I mean, this goes beyond the referendum into elections.

00:08:04.580 In fairness, there is a federalist side that is complying with the rules.

00:08:10.420 Stephen Carter. So it's, you know, they're, they're playing by the rules, but again, yeah,

00:08:16.920 you're right. The castle doesn't seem to be. And the castle is the biggest of them.

00:08:20.760 Another area to be in fairness to actually a state free Alberta is listed as a third party

00:08:26.320 advertiser, but they haven't put any of their financials out there yet. When you look on it,

00:08:32.680 there's been zero raised and zero spent. Well, I'm not sure if they have done it. They did the

00:08:36.480 work around getting the signatures for uh yes and then they did register as a third-party

00:08:41.600 advertiser if you look on the groups list it's in there and there was a telephone held a little

00:08:45.280 while ago where presumably a portion of funds were raised by them uh i can't answer for them

00:08:51.040 but for whatever reason they appear not to have disclosed any of that yet either which is but

00:08:55.280 they are at least required to well that we know i i don't know lucasic is listed on the site as well

00:09:00.640 but he just hasn't done anything with it he hasn't put his fundraising numbers in

00:09:06.160 uh or disclosed it's very strange in general uh but i i imagine steve free is going to have

00:09:13.200 to answer to some things pretty soon too it's 500 a week for every week we don't file

00:09:18.640 if we do not um i i'm as stumped as anybody else why they're digging their heels in so hard on

00:09:25.280 trying not to make Mr. Lukasik do like everybody else has. So here's, from the Federalist side,

00:09:31.700 I'm not sure why they would be okay with this, because, you know, if the polls are to be

00:09:37.260 believed, and at least to some extent I would believe them, the Federalist side has the clear

00:09:41.320 advantage here. They have more support than the Nationalist or Independent side. So if you're

00:09:47.940 betting, they're likely to win. If you're just putting money down on red or black here,

00:09:53.400 federalists are favored to win. And, you know, they've all said, well, we need to rack up the

00:09:59.060 score. We don't just need to win. We need to win big to put this separatist boogeyman to bed.

00:10:04.980 But that's not going to happen if they win. But there's now very clear and serious questions

00:10:10.480 about the fairness of the process. If one side is held to the letter of the law and the other side

00:10:15.740 is clearly allowed to break it and everybody knows it, that means that even if the federalist

00:10:22.020 side wins the referendum, Nigel. This allows independent supporters, if they were to lose

00:10:27.940 the referendum, they say, well, we don't accept the results of that because our side had to

00:10:33.340 register. Our side had to report. We were limited to donation cap and donors inside of Alberta.

00:10:39.480 And you've got the biggest of all of the federalist groups here. It has not had to comply

00:10:45.120 with donation limits. It hasn't had to limit its donors to just Alberta or even Canada,

00:10:49.880 for all we know um this does this means that even if the federalists win they don't get a clean win

00:10:56.620 that beggars belief that that's a good long-term strategy for them yeah well it's a the thing

00:11:03.540 derek is that people who have the opportunity to tilt something in a direction that they want

00:11:11.340 even if they are officials will sometimes take that opportunity think that they're doing their

00:11:16.260 patriotic duty i am minded of the judge who recently a couple months ago now dumped the

00:11:23.820 um the rev the first referendum said no no you can't do that so now we ended up with this

00:11:29.720 referendum on whether to have a referendum my my advice is that the judge acted improperly

00:11:37.340 and that on appeal that would be lost but of course the appeal wouldn't get heard until

00:11:41.400 you know next year or something so it's all very much but she probably i haven't asked her but she

00:11:48.000 probably feels she did a good patriotic thing for canada by just pitching that referendum off the

00:11:53.880 off the ballot sheet well now we come to the issue we're talking about now an official or some

00:11:59.120 officials within elections alberta i can't say this for a fact none of us can but the evidence

00:12:06.340 is that as they have not acted they didn't intend to act why did they not intend to act

00:12:12.480 i don't know the point you raise about it being an unclean victory is one that had i been that

00:12:18.400 individual would have made me think about it uh but uh they maybe thought about it and came to

00:12:23.240 a different conclusion well i mean this has got to be irking you know as you said dave nobody's

00:12:27.660 this isn't necessarily going to be a clean fight this is what i'm saying everybody everybody i've

00:12:31.920 to on the independence side of things says well you know we do this and then we do that and then

00:12:38.080 we invoke the uh the the clarity of the clarity actually yeah well it isn't going to be that

00:12:46.480 simple and if you get as far as the clarity act you're going to find that there's so many ways

00:12:51.280 that the other side can manipulate that you get nowhere so it's stacked against the very much

00:12:57.360 stacked against the um independent side yeah but i mean they've you know you talked you said that

00:13:03.120 you know there were there are federal federalist groups in the campaign who have registered and

00:13:08.000 are reporting and are complying with the law this is i would imagine this has got to irk that

00:13:14.160 i mean you know they're they're fighting at least as best as we can tell they're complying with

00:13:20.240 the law they're engaged in a fair it might not be an even fight one side's got a ton more

00:13:25.440 institutional support and whatnot but but they're complying with the law so you know fair from that

00:13:31.120 perspective um but it means that even if they win then you know they have to answer for what the

00:13:37.680 bigger group on their own side has done here that the independent side if it if it was to lose here

00:13:43.360 can say no this was not a fair fight we don't accept the outcome of this we get to have another

00:13:47.840 vote at some point uh because one side had to comply with the law and the other one didn't

00:13:53.400 Yeah, I've got to wonder what Luke Hazek is doing.

00:13:56.440 Surely he's got to be keeping records of all this, just in case.

00:14:00.880 If he does get called to court or if there is a lawsuit,

00:14:04.220 he better have some names and he better have some figures

00:14:06.420 and they better all be accounted right or he's in big trouble.

00:14:11.160 But yeah, if I'm Stephen Carter and I'm following the rules as he is doing,

00:14:16.860 I would be frustrated too because you don't want people on your side flouting the law.

00:14:22.640 And that's what Lukasik is doing at the moment, with apparently a blind eye turn by Elections Alberta.

00:14:28.760 Well, and I did, again, I do a lot of driving lately.

00:14:32.220 I do a lot of public speaking events, so I listen to a lot of podcasts while I drive.

00:14:35.420 And I listen to Stephen Carter's with that former NDP, Shannon Phillips.

00:14:40.260 He has a podcast they do regularly, and it hurts.

00:14:43.120 But I've got to listen to the other side.

00:14:45.080 And he is upset about it.

00:14:46.240 He has been lodging complaints.

00:14:48.300 You know, Carter's a weasel.

00:14:50.080 I have very little use for the man in general.

00:14:52.060 but one of the things he does like doing actually is finding things like laws

00:14:56.240 and then finding legitimate loopholes or ways to bend and stretch them.

00:14:59.760 He's never been wanting to feel constrained by the hard lines of them,

00:15:02.900 but he still, even he, isn't trying to bend the disclosure and things.

00:15:06.620 He understands they're straightforward rules,

00:15:08.720 and he is questioning Lukasik, saying how on earth is this man getting a pass on this?

00:15:12.900 I don't know how much longer the electoral officer can get away with not acting.

00:15:15.760 I really don't.

00:15:16.440 Premier Smith was asked about it, and she says she's surprised that he doesn't have to file.

00:15:21.620 So when you've got the premier saying, hey, what's going on?

00:15:24.960 Yeah, and something to clarify, because I've had a lot of people emailing me in context saying, why doesn't Smith intervene?

00:15:29.180 Why doesn't she get in there?

00:15:29.740 But that's a dangerous precedent, too. 0.99

00:15:31.300 We do not want a premier directly meddling with the electoral office.

00:15:36.220 It's supposed to be like a court.

00:15:37.440 It's supposed to be separate from the political process.

00:15:39.520 We don't want to start down that road.

00:15:41.760 I mean, that's why it often usually goes to an all-party committee or something if you're going to change things directly with that.

00:15:46.360 We don't have time for that.

00:15:47.480 We have a referendum in three months.

00:15:48.700 so this this officer that's where well from start to finish uh what's this what's his name again the

00:15:54.420 chief electoral officer i can't remember yeah but from start to finish i mean uh the way they acted

00:15:58.880 with the into pro-independence petition uh you know trying intervening in court time after time

00:16:05.600 after time to try and stop it um when they applied no such tests to again lukazic's citizens initiative

00:16:13.340 petition they have treated the two sides differently from the very beginning it's just

00:16:17.460 continuing on and it means that um if the federalists uh do win in this it's uh no no one's

00:16:26.360 required to accept that outcome at this point well and getting to what nigel was talking about too

00:16:30.700 with how they're going to throw up every roadblock possible i mean if it gets to a clarity act

00:16:34.260 referendum what's the federal government going to start throwing up in front even if there was yes

00:16:37.820 but the thing i got to warn people of and i i don't want it to be misinterpreted as a threat

00:16:41.740 but we got to watch the things when you take away all the democratic means for change and you have a

00:16:46.540 very dedicated group of people who want to make the change they will start to seek non-democratic

00:16:51.340 means to make change and nobody wants to see that i do still say to this day it's the fact that there

00:16:56.560 was at least as difficult as it is a democratic outlet for the independence and movement in

00:17:01.780 quebec that has kept the flq from ever reforming and ever becoming a thing ever again because

00:17:07.060 they're saying look no we'll dedicate our energies as difficult as it is through referenda and a party

00:17:11.820 system to get this done i would hate to see something like that yeah yeah okay um well uh

00:17:19.160 one guy with one of the uh anti-independence organizations is jason kenney and so this is i

00:17:25.080 think a good uh segue into uh his leadership campaign uh jason kenney is not yet at present

00:17:32.280 the leader of the federal conservative party uh but you know it was it's always been known that

00:17:39.140 that was his ambition. It was one of the things that weakened him, I think, when he was the

00:17:43.900 premier, um, is that he, he could always see his peripheral vision was on the prime minister's

00:17:51.460 chair. Um, that's something that's always kept Smith in a stronger position because I think

00:17:56.920 the height of her ambition is to be the Alberta premier. That's, that's as good as it gets. 0.96

00:18:01.980 Whereas Kenny was always, seemed to always see the premier's chair as a stepping stone. He's

00:18:06.120 He comes back to Alberta from federal politics, gets the parties together, beats the NDP, and then he's saved the day, and then he gets the ride back into Ottawa when the Conservative Party's in a position to win an election again.

00:18:20.760 Obviously, it did not work out as smoothly as I think he was planning on it being.

00:18:28.200 But for at least the last year, it's been, I think, very obvious that he's trying to position himself as successor to Pierre Polyev.

00:18:36.120 To his credit, he has not been out there like Doug Ford trying to actively undermine Polyev.

00:18:40.780 He's not out taking little shots and whatnot.

00:18:43.560 That's something Doug Ford has definitely been doing.

00:18:45.900 Kenny has not done that.

00:18:47.540 But he's been setting himself up as a successor,

00:18:51.560 somebody he's not seen as undermining the current leader.

00:18:55.180 But, you know, he's been, he positioned himself as the leader of the conservative anti-independent side in the referendum here.

00:19:03.660 Which is probably important if you want to lead them.

00:19:06.120 the federal conservative party that's running for seats in Quebec, Ontario, and the Atlantic,

00:19:10.740 but also just kind of taking random political positions that are unsolicited. So yesterday,

00:19:17.440 he just seemingly out of more or less nowhere, just released his policy position on supply

00:19:24.780 management. It was a good position, but I don't think that should be really controversial among

00:19:30.620 conservatives now that no we should not have a system styled on the soviet union for our dairy

00:19:36.140 and milk and eggs uh of course um but he's just kind of putting out random policy positions like

00:19:42.400 this um where she brought it up when we were in office would have been nice if he mentioned it

00:19:48.640 when he had something some power to actually do something yeah including his alberta premier

00:19:52.380 because the provinces actually do have power to uh to undermine federal federal federal control

00:19:57.540 oversupply management but uh i don't know i i'd see it's just this is not a new thing but i'd see

00:20:03.160 it nigel as uh he's just kind of continuing to set the pins for when poliev eventually is no

00:20:11.560 longer leader that could happen soon it could happen in a while could happen after the next

00:20:15.580 federal election but whenever it is it's pretty obvious what he's doing trying to secure his

00:20:20.240 position as the obvious successor i would i would say he probably wants to be on the short list yes

00:20:26.000 You know, one thing is certainly true. Pierre is in trouble. He passed his

00:20:33.280 the party leadership assessment back in January without any trouble. I think it was 82% or

00:20:38.560 something. But thanks to legislation that came in a few years ago, courtesy of Michael Chung,

00:20:45.840 the party itself, like the caucus, the members of parliament, can actually have a leadership

00:20:50.960 review more or less anytime they want so that's how uh that's how you're in our tool was asked

00:20:56.760 yeah and so the same thing could happen now should it happen why would it happen those are bigger

00:21:02.200 questions but uh the the sad thing is i think that pierre polyev has called it right as far as

00:21:08.500 policy policy is concerned all along what's happened is that it has ceased to be exciting

00:21:13.940 to be right and it would be more exciting to be in power and therefore some people are getting

00:21:19.760 restless and that is what may open up the opportunity for somebody else including jason

00:21:26.640 kenny uh to take a run at this so do you really think he's in trouble yes all right i bow to your

00:21:34.640 greater political knowledge but i mean other than cbc talking heads uh from laurentia uh you know

00:21:43.920 you don't see any mps coming out complaining about them well not in public not in public

00:21:48.880 We didn't with Aaron O'Toole either, but MPs for their political careers tend to keep this

00:21:54.240 pretty close to their chest. I personally think he's okay

00:21:58.640 until the next election. If he loses, obviously, then he's gone, because I will have been twice.

00:22:04.400 You can't lose two and stay on. Well, you could be right, Dave,

00:22:09.280 and I certainly wouldn't. It's not a hill to die on, but my sense of the caucus is that they're

00:22:16.160 saying, well, you know, if we did go into an election, the result is a foregone conclusion.

00:22:22.720 That's what they're thinking, and so therefore they want to go with a new face, enough of them

00:22:29.840 at least to cause an issue. And the reason, I think, is that they don't feel that the hardline

00:22:39.600 conservative position is ever going to be popular. I mean, folks like us who talk theory over our

00:22:45.360 beers you know we're pretty sure that what the conservatives offered at the last election was

00:22:50.720 the right way to go and a better way to go than what was voted for by the canadian public

00:22:56.400 didn't vote but it was elbows up and donald trump yeah if it was don't don't forget how far ahead

00:23:01.920 paulia was in the polls before the last election yeah until elbows up happened well well but he's

00:23:08.080 he has backed down on some policies he backed down on getting rid of media subsidies he backed down

00:23:12.720 on getting rid of the cbc every single from the earliest leadership campaign rallies all the way

00:23:19.040 through until about halfway through the federal election but halfway through it's a and we're

00:23:24.240 gonna sell the cbc building and phillips you know make it housing for families and then about halfway

00:23:30.480 through he really when he's in trouble he says ah geez i could use some good news stories so he

00:23:35.920 he gets rid of his uh promise to get rid of media subsidies he gets and he just quietly drops his

00:23:41.600 promise to get rid of the CBC. He doesn't mention these things at all now. He's caricatured as being

00:23:50.680 this hard right guy, but he's still fairly open borders on immigration. I mean, he's not as open

00:23:55.880 borders, obviously, as Justin Trudeau was, but he's still fairly pro-mass migration. They have

00:24:01.820 not really gotten, and that is the biggest issue. Thing is, Derek, the four of us around this table

00:24:06.240 know that the other most people do not follow it that closely and the image remains of pierre as

00:24:13.760 being this smart but sometimes too smart a little cocky young fellow who's really very promising

00:24:22.880 but i don't know whether i want him running the country that and that obviously is the way that

00:24:27.120 the rich in canada i don't think his his leadership change is not policy i think it is winnability

00:24:33.520 can pure win and i don't that's perception that he's too far right it's just you know if you're

00:24:38.000 in caucus you know the conservatives are it pulls it to be believed under current projections they're

00:24:42.560 going to lose a quarter of their seats a quarter to a third of their seats if you're in one of those

00:24:48.720 you're an mp in one of those marginal seats the guy could be the godfather of your child you uh

00:24:56.160 you might want you might seem to gain a total anywhere i mean that's the thing in these polls

00:25:01.280 And I don't know what it takes.

00:25:03.720 I mean, Mark Carney has underperformed by every single measure you could apply to him.

00:25:09.560 He's done terribly diplomatically with dealing with Trump, as elbows up as it might be.

00:25:15.820 He's failing and backing down and losing.

00:25:18.480 Economically, he's been horrific.

00:25:20.120 The budget's blown way out.

00:25:21.420 He's making Trudeau look like he was a responsible spender.

00:25:26.140 Yet his support numbers keep climbing.

00:25:28.800 I don't get it.

00:25:29.740 i don't understand it so i can't put myself in the shoes of the people so we don't know when

00:25:33.700 polyev will be gone uh but i mean polls are to be believed he's nowhere close to winning an election

00:25:38.980 right now so you know at the latest he would be gone if he doesn't win that election would be

00:25:43.340 after the next one but it could happen before but one way or another uh there there's always people

00:25:48.960 jockeying in the work can we smell the blood in the water yeah people people smell the blood in

00:25:53.420 the water and when he's going to be gone i don't know it could be sooner or later but uh ford has

00:25:58.460 obviously smelt it and he is positioned himself as i'm the winnable candidate i win elections in

00:26:03.860 ontario i'm uh you're all his popularity in ontario is not at the moment not so great just

00:26:11.040 now building his brand around that is maybe short-sighted as that goes down um kenny has

00:26:17.900 tried to uh position himself as more consistently conservative which is very much at odds with his

00:26:23.800 own record as the premier of Alberta. But he's been setting the table, trying to position himself.

00:26:33.060 And if I look at the current field, and you know, people always come out of somewhere that you're 0.97

00:26:36.480 not really expecting once these races actually start. But if I'm looking at the current field

00:26:39.860 of people who would run to succeed Pierre Paulyov, who actually have a shot at winning,

00:26:45.940 the two most likely would be Jason Kenney and Doug Ford. I'd submit to you, Corey, that

00:26:53.040 both of these individuals would be unacceptable to the populist right in Alberta and Saskatchewan

00:27:01.260 that this would be, you know, Ford unacceptable for his own reasons, but also Kenny from his own

00:27:06.540 record as premier. Ironically, having Kenny from Alberta as the leader of the Federal Conservative

00:27:12.780 Party could be what finally actually fractures Alberta out of the Conservative Party, at least

00:27:18.740 in large parts of Alberta. You could see a new reform coming if either of those guys takes the

00:27:24.200 leadership of it. I mean, Kenny perhaps would have a better chance of holding the West, even though

00:27:28.820 he's kind of scorched the earth on the provincial level. Maybe his federal connections could hold

00:27:33.460 things together. But, you know, is he winnable in Ontario? I mean, Kenny's a political creature.

00:27:38.060 He's been a career political man since his youth, and he's been an effective one. But he is a spent

00:27:43.800 force now. I mean, he just doesn't know what else to do with himself. That's the reality. He's not

00:27:47.180 running for the right reasons he's running because he doesn't know what else he can do

00:27:50.400 he can't retire he's got way too much ambition and work ethic he's always been a workhorse

00:27:56.140 so well where's he going to go next provincial's done for him he's going to make a goal federal

00:28:01.040 but that's not the right reason and that's not the reason that's going to unify a party

00:28:04.460 uh and there are a lot of uh yeah true blue conservatives in alberta who will

00:28:09.340 never everything in their power to take him down they will not accept him he might go down

00:28:13.900 better in Ontario than you think.

00:28:16.480 Kenny might be there, but not here.

00:28:18.480 When Alberta dumped

00:28:20.000 Mr. Kenny,

00:28:22.760 there were people back east

00:28:23.940 who thought, well, he was a good guy.

00:28:25.520 What's the matter with you people?

00:28:27.420 They remembered the

00:28:28.980 immigration minister.

00:28:31.740 Or even the Taxpayers Federation.

00:28:33.680 They liked that guy.

00:28:35.100 They didn't know Kenny be Alberta Premier.

00:28:38.340 So yeah, it was the same thing when I go out.

00:28:40.240 So I wouldn't say he's starting from dry ground

00:28:42.060 back east and that's going to matter as well. Doug Ford wins the leadership in Alberta votes

00:28:46.620 and Kenny wins it with Ontario votes. I don't see Alberta conservatives accepting either of those

00:28:54.220 very easily anyways. I mean Ford would devastate the party in the west and Kenny not so much but

00:29:01.340 I think it would be a problem. I just see it's a really ironic thing that we could be looking at

00:29:06.220 if either of those two came together. The process that started back in 1987 with the reform party

00:29:11.740 which led to the alliance which led to the formation of the conservative party

00:29:15.500 as a principal conservative party that actually governed for 10 years could all be over because

00:29:20.940 you would just recreate the old red tory party and it would be another brokerage group for eastern

00:29:26.300 canada i don't know well i don't know the federal conservatives have had red tories before look

00:29:30.540 they give kind of industry seems better now as a lieutenant but he was not very conservative

00:29:36.460 as the conservative leader and then you had aaron o'toole who ran on some issues to the

00:29:40.780 left of Justin Trudeau. The party has survived its unity intact with left-wing or center-left

00:29:47.020 leaders before. I think the problem is both Ford and Kenney have been in executive power with a

00:29:54.380 clear record that is a scorched earth for too many to accept. Well, in Canada, it doesn't have a good

00:29:59.260 record actually of premiers managing to make that leap to the prime minister's chair. I don't think

00:30:03.100 it's ever never happened. I mean, they've tried many a time. You would think it's a rational

00:30:07.580 jump that can be made and the state's governors

00:30:09.900 can get up to the presidency, but

00:30:11.720 they tend not to make

00:30:13.860 that leap in kind of a drop. Just a small

00:30:16.020 factoid that bears on this.

00:30:18.420 No conservative leader won

00:30:19.960 more votes than Andrew Scheer did

00:30:21.960 in the 2021 election.

00:30:24.020 More than 6 million. More than Harper

00:30:25.960 ever did.

00:30:28.000 Are you sure Olyov didn't win more this time?

00:30:30.320 Olyov won over 40% of the vote.

00:30:31.880 He did, but he didn't quite talk

00:30:33.920 Scheer. Shows that systemic issue

00:30:35.800 we've got with the system out.

00:30:37.900 Okay. All right.

00:30:40.300 Well, we touched on it a little

00:30:41.980 bit. Corey touched on it

00:30:43.680 there, but the trade

00:30:45.980 war.

00:30:48.240 You know, I know a lot of our

00:30:49.740 viewers, listeners like Donald Trump

00:30:51.800 and, you know, there's moments where I still do

00:30:53.820 too.

00:30:55.940 But the guy is 1.00

00:30:57.600 just kind of a mad dog 0.99

00:30:59.300 at times. There's no rhyme 0.86

00:31:01.800 or reason to it. 0.73

00:31:02.680 And if you want to do mad dog negotiating, that can often work with your enemies.

00:31:08.620 But with friends, it tends to alienate your friends.

00:31:14.740 And it's not just alienating some elbows-up liberal boomers who are sitting cushy and don't want to change anything.

00:31:23.280 It even flummoxes me sometimes, Dave.

00:31:25.440 you know, the

00:31:27.740 the new, the Goryhow Bridge

00:31:30.040 for example

00:31:31.500 Canada built this thing

00:31:33.260 that's joint infrastructure

00:31:35.040 I won't get into it, but you know when you

00:31:37.500 when you're building a fence with your neighbor

00:31:39.320 traditionally both help share the cost

00:31:41.780 of the fence, because that's mutually

00:31:43.800 shared infrastructure, it's good for both sides

00:31:45.620 in this case, Canada had to build it

00:31:47.620 completely out of pocket

00:31:48.920 and this was opposed by the guy

00:31:51.800 who owns the Ambassador Bridge right next door to it

00:31:53.620 in Detroit, Windsor there

00:31:54.800 who happens to be one of

00:31:57.580 Donald Trump's biggest financial backers

00:31:59.700 and now Trump

00:32:01.640 is shutting this thing down, it has

00:32:03.420 actually nothing to do with trade negotiations.

00:32:05.460 I think it's just pure corruption

00:32:06.960 at this point.

00:32:09.080 But then we've got Canada's response

00:32:11.680 which is

00:32:12.980 Ontario's response.

00:32:15.420 We're going to, you know, liquor.

00:32:17.520 No, we're not going to have

00:32:19.220 Jack Daniels on the shelves

00:32:23.720 and that'll show them.

00:32:24.800 It just seems like both sides are children at this point.

00:32:28.880 Yeah, pox on all their houses.

00:32:32.320 Doug Ford last week threw Alberta oil on the table and said, hey, bargaining chip, you know, maybe we should use it.

00:32:40.320 And by that he meant cut it off.

00:32:42.800 Cut it off, yeah.

00:32:44.080 Yeah.

00:32:45.260 Our legislature reporter, Will Vassar, talked to the prime minister today in Red Gear and asked him if that was on the table.

00:32:52.440 And Carney said no.

00:32:54.800 You have to be trustworthy.

00:32:57.640 You have to be a trusted supplier.

00:32:59.780 You know, Canada is known as reliable throughout the world.

00:33:02.940 And, you know, it's not fair.

00:33:04.200 It wouldn't be something that we would ever consider cutting off oil to our best customer.

00:33:11.860 You know, but we did capitulate on the bridge.

00:33:15.380 We gave, you know, the Americans a cut in the tolls and the revenues.

00:33:20.560 Even though they didn't put a penny into building it.

00:33:22.080 Even though they didn't put a single penny into building it.

00:33:24.800 uh you know carney was caught in a uh shall we call it a lie uh and that one uh but yeah it all

00:33:33.600 goes down to the uh the occupant of the the oval office when he wants to deal with canada it'll

00:33:39.440 get done the next day right now he's still upset with justin trudeau uh he probably doesn't like

00:33:46.160 carney that much uh you know and when we go and buy our fighter jets somewhere else uh he's gonna

00:33:53.360 get even more upset so the big beneficiary of this though let's not forget is mark carney

00:34:00.400 right he's seen as the fighter for canada and that's the only reason i think that his popularity

00:34:06.560 is uh is still up is because he's seen as the steady hand believe it or not um so cory i want

00:34:15.840 to talk about doug ford and the oil i'm sorry so doug ford was saying you know and he said this

00:34:20.960 before, we've talked about it, he said, you know, well, we should cut off all energy exports to the

00:34:26.560 United States. And, well, that means more than just hydro going to New York and Michigan. That

00:34:34.560 means an oil embargo. Now, America has invaded countries with pretty flimsy pretexts before.

00:34:44.480 Most of them always involve oil, beyond the stated pretexts. Canada is by far the largest exporter to the United States of oil, much more in Saudi Arabia, much more in Nigeria, more than anybody else.

00:34:59.100 uh if canada was to shut off oil exports united states i'm pretty sure the u.s army

00:35:08.100 be rolling down seventh avenue here in you know in 24 hours like they would never

00:35:14.620 they'd head for hardesty yeah but they'd occupy the whole damn place eventually uh but all 0.71

00:35:20.720 but more importantly it would be a declaration of war from ottawa against alberta it would send us

00:35:27.800 into a depression that made the Great Depression look like nothing. We'd probably be at

00:35:31.800 33% unemployment, give or take. Provincial government

00:35:35.940 would go bankrupt without the royalty revenue.

00:35:39.560 And of course, it would completely torpedo our credibility in the long term, as

00:35:43.200 Carney, to be fair, rightly pointed out. You've got to be a reliable and trusted

00:35:47.000 exporter. But this kind of...

00:35:51.940 If Justin Trudeau was still Prime Minister, I think this would... 0.98

00:35:55.940 they might have already done it by now you might be economically dumb enough to do that

00:36:00.180 it is carny has been limited maybe nothing ontario premiers have done this before uh 0.92

00:36:04.760 you know before even my time but ontario progressive conservative premier bill davis

00:36:11.600 in the 1980s stood side by side with pierre trudeau supporting the national energy program

00:36:16.520 that was yeah may have screwed alberta but it helps subsidize industry and protect industry

00:36:21.200 in ontario um just i don't know with doug ford it's almost a bit uh trumpish and like should we 0.99

00:36:29.380 take him literally seriously but not literally or does he actually mean this crazy shit i think he 0.97

00:36:35.220 means it i mean he's reactive he's he's not one with deep thinking or planning he's never been 0.99

00:36:39.820 and it shows as you said i mean and it's not reasonable even pierre trudeau when we're talking

00:36:45.280 the protectionism the preferred pricing we had to give the rest of canada decimating the alberta

00:36:50.100 oil field, he still never talked about shutting off the actual supply going south of the border

00:36:55.200 because that would be an action just very directly modeled to hurt the American people. And that's

00:37:00.040 going to prompt a much worse reaction, as you said. Not only that, well, or if he did that and

00:37:06.600 decimated Alberta's industry, because that's her bread and butter, they wouldn't need to march up

00:37:11.420 to Hardesty because Albertans would be busy building the wall on the east side of Alberta

00:37:14.700 already anyways and saying well fine we're gonna stick with our customer uh ford didn't think any

00:37:21.420 of that through but he's a performative uh you know to be blunt buffoon i mean pouring out his

00:37:26.140 liquor at press conferences and and all is is is he's a windbag and and how effective it might be

00:37:33.420 people want to see a bit of that that is the difference between ford and trump both of whom

00:37:38.540 make wild comments. Trump has leverage. Ford genuinely doesn't think it through.

00:37:45.660 You can make the argument, and I do, that the extremities of language that Trump goes to

00:37:52.220 are actually performative for a purpose. They just stir everything up, and then finally,

00:38:00.700 when everybody's excited, oh, no, I didn't mean that, and then agreement is quick to come.

00:38:07.500 i've seen it i mean we've seen it now this is the middle of the second term he did it today

00:38:11.820 you know when he said john have you got the bleeper ready he said he was going to bomb the

00:38:15.660 out of iran yeah right and you know that's obviously unpresidential language but it

00:38:21.260 sure got everybody's attention yeah and in iran too i dare say yes well let's um

00:38:28.300 i mean yeah so so this was a yeah will vassar our reporter's question well carney and danielle

00:38:32.620 Smith were in Red Deer. And, you know,

00:38:36.660 Carney does a lot of things, I think, are not the right thing. But I think his language was

00:38:40.540 hard to disagree with today, Nigel.

00:38:45.040 You know, he seemed to understand

00:38:48.600 how suicidal this would be. It would, if

00:38:52.580 anything, would hugely help the independent

00:38:56.580 side win a referendum. Like, there's a referendum coming up, and you're going to impose

00:39:00.440 an oil embargo on Alberta that would throw us into a Great Depression and bankrupt the

00:39:04.040 provincial government. I think he understands that. I think he's also smart enough to know

00:39:08.640 that this could actually provoke an American military presence. The American military would

00:39:16.380 simply not, the American government would never allow that to happen. I mean, maybe the oil gets

00:39:21.720 shut down for an hour before troops show up at artisty um but yeah i know uh do you think

00:39:29.580 that will hurt like carney taking a fairly reasoned position on this does that hurt him

00:39:37.440 in ontario where that kind of you know elbows up rhetoric propelled him to the prime minister's

00:39:42.320 office yes i i think being reasonable always comes across well for mr carney that's why people like

00:39:48.320 him never a word or an emotion out of place and all the old ladies in ontario think that's my boy

00:39:56.500 and they continue to support and send money um you know fighting talk does does not become him 0.98

00:40:04.420 well and the elbows up thing got dropped as quickly as it was raised and it was stupid in the first 0.94

00:40:09.100 place but it was what got him over the line to become prime minister i mean that's not to say 0.95

00:40:14.940 that I have suddenly succumbed to Mr. Carney's charm. He has his agenda, and seeing Alberta boom

00:40:22.020 and Alberta oil flowing 8 million barrels a day as Premier Smith has said she aims,

00:40:29.420 that's not his policy. He's still a greenie. He still wants to mitigate carbon emissions. 1.00

00:40:37.560 And if it twists us into a knot here in Alberta, then so be it. He's happy to do that.

00:40:43.380 What he will not do is go out and say something militant that might feel good in the moment, but will cause endless problems down the line.

00:40:53.520 He's a smart guy.

00:40:54.560 He's just not my guy.

00:40:56.320 Well, and it's where he speaks, too.

00:40:57.620 There's some political savvy.

00:40:58.780 I don't know how much traction that conference of an Alberta housing announcement is going to gather in Ontario and Quebec.

00:41:04.460 So he gave the right answer for what Albertans would want to hear out here.

00:41:07.140 So even if it might not, you know, some of the people who like Ford's answer,

00:41:11.720 they might not even hear about this answer on this side.

00:41:13.780 So it's playing where you are, too.

00:41:15.220 Okay.

00:41:16.560 All right. 0.99

00:41:17.380 Let's take our putting shots.

00:41:18.700 Dave.

00:41:19.480 I want to give credit to the city of Seattle for declaring it the summer of Jimothy.

00:41:26.180 Nigel, you look very...

00:41:27.580 Jimothy.

00:41:28.400 This malformed...

00:41:30.700 Jimothy is a little squashed raccoon.

00:41:34.800 He's only half a raccoon, but still very adorable and still very…

00:41:38.580 He's alive?

00:41:39.300 Oh, yeah.

00:41:39.600 Oh, yeah.

00:41:40.020 Yeah.

00:41:40.940 As long as you've seen the footage, it's fun.

00:41:42.640 Oh, yeah.

00:41:44.200 It's dominating social media the last couple of weeks.

00:41:48.280 So good on Seattle for recognizing it.

00:41:50.960 And, you know, hopefully it doesn't get run down.

00:41:54.020 Embrace him.

00:41:54.760 I mean, it's an underdog story, truly.

00:41:56.480 Oh, they've got plushies out now.

00:41:58.300 They've got trading cards out.

00:42:00.160 You know, people have really jumped on it.

00:42:01.620 Remember when New York executed that, uh, squirrel.

00:42:06.360 And it became, we even talked about it on the pipeline.

00:42:09.100 It actually became like an election issue. 0.69

00:42:11.400 This is a handicapped raccoon that they've embraced. 1.00

00:42:14.620 I thought Toronto had those, uh, those funeral vigils for, uh, 1.00

00:42:18.200 I think it was a raccoon, a raccoon that got killed, right?

00:42:20.620 Yeah.

00:42:22.640 Don't underestimate people's attachment to animals,

00:42:25.020 even if they don't like each other.

00:42:26.480 Yeah.

00:42:26.920 Corey.

00:42:27.720 Uh, well, actually I believe it was Mr. Vassar as well.

00:42:30.340 asked the question about equalization. Yes, he did. Premier Smith at the press conference.

00:42:35.000 And, you know, hats off to Will doing a great job. Hats

00:42:38.240 back on to Premier Smith playing a mealy-mouthed, oh, well, maybe we can

00:42:42.360 tweak the formula a little. Premier Smith, we had a referendum not long ago saying

00:42:46.200 Albertans want rid of it, not tweaking it. And I gotta

00:42:50.260 admit, you know, she can only hold hands and smile with Premier Carney for so long

00:42:54.320 before his reputation really starts to stick to her. She's got to

00:42:58.280 starts, you know, I think that was the motivation. Well, the prime minister is literally standing

00:43:01.880 behind me. I don't want to take a hard anti-equalization stance. The Albertans are watching

00:43:06.580 two Premier Smiths and they're getting really impatient. Where's the Danielle we elected?

00:43:11.860 The one who was feisty. I don't know where she is right now. I don't know, but she better 1.00

00:43:17.720 return pretty soon because there's an AGM this fall and there can be a lot of crabby 1.00

00:43:21.120 conservatives there. Nigel. So you ran a story, Dave, I think it was just today, about, or

00:43:27.820 yesterday about the town of Picton in Ontario,

00:43:31.820 which just can't bring itself to re-erect this statue

00:43:35.660 of Sir John A. Macdonald, which was torn down

00:43:39.080 and stored as a result of nervous feelings.

00:43:42.580 So here's the thing, that calls me to look up,

00:43:44.760 where in Alberta do we have a statue

00:43:48.720 of Sir John A. Macdonald?

00:43:50.340 The answer, there's not a statue

00:43:53.340 of Sir John A. Macdonald anywhere in Alberta.

00:43:57.180 I looked it up, certainly not in Calvary or Edmonton.

00:44:00.380 We have one of Sir Winston Churchill,

00:44:02.500 and we have a soldier from the Boer War

00:44:05.500 and a number of others, but we don't have one at MacDonald.

00:44:08.080 If anybody knows where there is one

00:44:09.520 and they can send me a note, I'd appreciate it,

00:44:12.120 but that was the information that I was able to retrieve.

00:44:15.320 So here's my bold suggestion.

00:44:17.580 If Picton does not want a statue of Sir John A. MacDonald,

00:44:22.580 Let us purchase it from them and erect it.

00:44:27.300 Oh, I think it probably should go in the state capital of Edmonton, the provincial capital.

00:44:32.000 What am I saying?

00:44:32.500 I think we should put it at the reconstituted Fort Calgary.

00:44:37.560 Yes.

00:44:39.620 So maybe we should think seriously about where they're going to start a campaign.

00:44:45.280 We'll put it right in the lobby of the Western Standard. 0.83

00:44:47.820 Darn right. 0.51

00:44:48.560 Anyway, that's my parting shot. 0.92

00:44:50.480 Yeah. Fun. It's not very well known, but we actually have a statue of William Wallace in Calgary.

00:44:56.660 We really were. Somewhere near the Jubilee. I found it kind of randomly once.

00:45:05.140 But yeah, I think it's William Wallace.

00:45:07.180 OK, well, if we've got Churchill.

00:45:08.540 Oh, no. Or is it Sir Robert? It might be Robert the Bruce.

00:45:11.640 OK.

00:45:12.060 It's one of the two.

00:45:12.660 Either way, it's a Scottish hero. So let's.

00:45:15.240 They're both great Scots.

00:45:16.300 We've got him. We've got him. We've got Churchill.

00:45:18.340 Well, let's have one from, you know, maybe Mr. Lukaszek could divert some of his funds.

00:45:24.380 No, we're going to have a statue of Thomas Lukaszek set up the size of the Statue of Liberty as the father of Alberta independence for starting the petition.

00:45:32.900 There you go.

00:45:33.860 He'll be our Willie Moss.

00:45:35.300 Curve him into Rendell Mountain and Baff.

00:45:37.100 There we go.

00:45:37.540 So, mind quick, just there's lots of viral video going around of Indians protesting in Alberta about, you know, their permits are up. 0.94

00:45:49.720 They're supposed to go home. 0.51

00:45:51.300 How much we're actually going to do to physically deport these people if they decide not to? 0.94

00:45:55.160 I imagine at least a very large number are just going to slip into the black labor market and work unregistered. 0.90

00:46:03.020 But, you know, they're saying, hey, you know, our the federal government saying our degrees are because they're uncredited.

00:46:09.660 That doesn't count as being qualified to work here.

00:46:12.240 Well, you shouldn't have gone to a diploma mill, guys.

00:46:14.300 There were you were clearly being scammed to come to Canada.

00:46:18.180 But they were they had the understanding.

00:46:20.200 I have I have a little bit of sympathy.

00:46:22.280 They were being scammed and they knew they were being scammed. 0.97

00:46:25.440 They had to pay this money to this diploma mill to get a bullshit degree so they could come into Canada. 0.99

00:46:30.340 But once they're done their bullshit degree, then they get to stay. 0.99

00:46:34.360 But then the feds changed rules and said, well, we're not accepting the bullshit degrees anymore. 0.99

00:46:38.000 So, you know, take it up with the guy who scammed you. 0.98

00:46:41.340 So, but yeah, now we're seeing protests of these guys all around.

00:46:44.380 And it's like, you know, yeah, you got scammed.

00:46:47.200 You knew you were being scammed.

00:46:48.600 You just thought that there was a payoff at the end of the scam.

00:46:50.820 Now that the payoff is up, now you're upset.

00:46:53.880 No.

00:46:55.300 It said temporary work permit and temporary education visa.

00:47:00.340 operative word being temporary time to go home so all right i'll never do it you know

00:47:09.380 no i don't think so the scam ultimately is on all of us

00:47:13.380 so all right that's it thank you gentlemen thank you john on production thank all of you who joined

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00:47:42.900 you get to come on uh i'll be there dave will be there uh you guys didn't get a lot of notice i

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Western Standard - August 01, 2026

THE PIPELINE： Will Kenney replace Poilievre？

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