00:06:41.060Because there is something deeply unserious about a politician talking about inflicting massive pain on your largest customer as though international trade were a bar fight.
00:06:51.560This isn't roadhouse. You don't win because you're louder. You don't win because you swear more. You don't win because you wear a hat that says, buy Canadian. You win because you have leverage. And once again, apparently nobody wants to discuss the leverage.
00:07:07.780Doug Ford says Donald Trump is underestimating Canada.
00:07:11.620No, Doug Ford is dramatically overestimating Canada.
00:08:21.020But they're not going to turn Manhattan off.
00:08:22.900They're not going to shut Detroit down.
00:08:24.820The United States produces vastly more electricity than the Canada exports to it.
00:08:29.440The Americans adjust. Eventually, they replace what we sell them.
00:08:33.140And then congratulations, Premier Ford, you have transformed a reliable Canadian export market into an American national security vulnerability.
00:08:41.360What do you think Washington does next?
00:08:43.780Do you think they say, boy, those Canadians sure showed us we'd better become even more dependent on Ontario electricity?
00:09:49.540And after we've fired every weapon we have, what then?
00:09:52.820The American domestic market is considerably larger than ours, and that means that there is a fundamental problem with the entire elbows-up mentality.
00:10:03.700It treats economic pain as evidence of patriotism.
00:10:07.720Ford actually told the Associated Press that Canadians understand that they're going to have to sacrifice.
00:16:32.000Ontario and Quebec are connected to the American refinery infrastructure too.
00:16:35.740So now, Canada has deliberately turned a deeply integrated continental energy system into a weapon, and we are betting that the Americans blink first.
00:16:45.660And what is exactly the basis for that confidence?
00:16:49.100Smith warned that an escalating energy fight could cost hundreds of thousands of Canadian jobs and push American refiners towards alternative heavy crude supplies, including Venezuela.
00:16:58.580This is the strategic insanity of using energy exports as a political weapon.
00:17:30.980And someone wants to explain to me that the patriotic thing to do is deliberately disrupt that trade.
00:17:38.060Who's petroleum? The workers? The drillers? The welders? The engineers? The small-town business owners? The provincial treasuries?
00:17:44.920Because once again, the people proposing these grand dressers are usually not the people whose livelihoods are being put on the negotiating table.
00:17:52.460Jason Kenney has now joined calls to consider using energy exports as leverage
00:17:57.220on the very same day, essentially the same day that he announces a new partnership
00:18:02.420with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce,
00:18:04.740taming up with former NDP Premier Rachel Notley to defend staying in Canada.
00:18:10.960And the entire provincial NDP is moving in that direction.
00:18:16.040Doug Ford wants everything on the table.
00:18:18.440Danielle Smith is saying, no, oil stays flowing.
00:18:21.820So there's something deeply ironic about Alberta having to explain free trade to the rest of Canada.
00:19:43.060Because on October the 19th, Alberta is voting on whether we should remain a province of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on independence.
00:19:56.060Now, Smith has been unclear about when this will happen.
00:20:00.420I think she says probably not in the spring because there's laws that, well, you wrote.
00:20:05.520So, yeah, I don't know if we'll get into that.
00:20:08.400But if option two wins, Danielle Smith has said she intends to move fairly quickly towards that binding vote.
00:20:15.700Fine. We know what happens if option two wins.
00:20:19.400If Canada enters one of the most consequential constitutional debates in its history, Alberta has to respond.
00:20:26.300Alberta has to define what independence actually means.
00:20:29.760There are negotiations. There are questions about debt, pension, pensions, borders, citizenships, treaties, currency, trade, assets, resources, federal lands, military facilities, everything.
00:24:27.100And if you want Alberta to remain in Canada over the long term, these are precisely the people you need to persuade that Canada works for them.
00:24:35.560Not humiliate, not criminalize, not demonize. Persuade. That's how a federation is supposed to function.
00:24:43.400And this is where Danielle Smith's comments about oil become much bigger than the argument about export taxes.
00:24:51.580The rest of the country is openly discussing using Alberta's greatest economic asset as a weapon in a national trade dispute.
00:24:59.800Tax the oil, restrict the oil, use the oil as leverage, make Alberta energy part of Canada's retaliation against Donald Trump.
00:25:08.580And then some of those same voices turn around and wonder why Albertans wonder whether they have sufficient control over their own economic future.
00:25:17.000You can't have it both ways. You can't say that Alberta's resources are a national weapon when Ottawa needs leverage and then say that Alberta has no legitimate when Albertans ask who should control those resources.
00:25:29.660That contradiction is going to matter enormously over the next two months.
00:25:34.820Section 92A of the Constitution did not appear by accident.
00:25:39.040Provincial jurisdiction over natural resources is not some technical footnote.
00:25:42.800It is a fundamental bargain of Canadian federalism, a bargain that appears to be coming a part of the scene.
00:27:02.120If Canada cannot make a compelling case for itself without demonizing the people asking questions, Canada has a much bigger problem than one referendum.
00:27:12.580Danielle Smith now says herself that she is voting to remain in Canada.
00:27:17.160She has defended holding the referendum anyways, arguing that hundreds of thousands of Albertans demanded a resolution and the province needs clarity about what Albertans actually want.
00:27:31.040the referendum reveals it and doing what the NDP and and some of the federalists want by
00:27:37.880canceling the referendum won't make the problem disappear it doesn't postponing it doesn't make
00:27:44.180equalization disappear calling it divisive doesn't resolve constitutional grievances calling the
00:27:50.240people behind it traitors certainly doesn't solve anything at some point democratic societies have
00:27:56.300to be willing to ask difficult questions and sometimes yeah the answer is no maybe albertans
00:28:02.340vote overwhelmingly to remain in canada maybe they look at independence and decide the risks
00:28:06.620are too great maybe they decide reforming confederation is preferable it's perfectly
00:28:10.840legitimate result but then october the 20th becomes incredibly important because the responsibility
00:28:17.580shifts if alberta is saying we're saying then canada has to decide what staying means does it
00:28:24.460mean going back to the status quo does it mean ottawa pats alberta on the head says well glad
00:28:30.660that's over and carries on does it mean that the next federal governments go straight back to
00:28:36.060fighting alberta over energy emissions resource development and provincial jurisdiction because
00:28:40.740if that's what happens congratulations you haven't defeated alberta independence you've scheduled the
00:28:45.820next referendum that's what people need to understand a no vote cannot simply be interpreted
00:28:52.140as an endorsement of the status quo there will be people voting option one because they love canada
00:28:57.980there will be people voting option one because independence frightens them there will be people
00:29:02.300voting option one because they don't think the economic case has been made there will be people
00:29:06.640voting option one because they think the constitutional options are too great who are
00:29:11.200people who are furious with ottawa just not prepared to leave like that those things are
00:29:16.080not the same. And if Ottawa interprets every option one vote as everything is fine, then nothing
00:29:22.340has been learned. Which brings me back to the trade war. Right now, Alberta is being presented
00:29:29.300with a fascinating demonstration of its place inside Confederation. Our industries are suddenly
00:29:34.880indispensable. When Canada needs leverage against the United States, our resources suddenly become
00:29:41.080national strategic assets it's funny how that works the industry canada spent years constraining
00:29:47.300suddenly becomes a thing everyone wants to put on the negotiating table and danielle smith is
00:29:52.580saying no so i'm kind of a little like it's frustrating so i guess uh now i can move into
00:30:01.400the calls do we have any nothing okay join the conversation uh call us at 866-479-9378
00:30:10.820i guess i can kind of go a little bit uh let's talk about the canadian chamber of commerce's
00:30:15.260recent announcement to put jason kenny and rachel notley on stage together um i i don't uh i don't
00:30:21.860think this is going to go the way that kenny and or notley sorry kenny and notley uh oh there's
00:30:28.700questions in the chat oh let me pull that up good call all right let's let's go through the chats
00:30:36.640here this is a good one new york times oh here's a good one i don't i didn't get to uh canadian
00:30:48.300officials confirm that carney has his jack boot on the neck of albertans for leverage keystone xl
00:30:54.900is blockaded by ottawa and carney is trying to trade for benefits to subsidize laurentian
00:31:00.160industries and yeah like i i didn't even get a chance to talk about supply management uh and
00:31:05.800some of these these areas like every time i see doug ford standing in front of a protect ontario
00:31:11.200sign i think i'm i'm done with this country everything we do is geared towards helping
00:31:17.020the east if if keystone was really on the table and not being used as a bargaining chip to protect
00:31:23.440um oh uh to protect supply management like we'd have a a different conversation we do have a call
00:31:32.900on the line um hello can you hear me uh good morning yes i can uh can you make that louder john
00:31:45.860hello hello yeah you're on the air hello good hi there yeah my question was i just wanted to ask
00:31:54.100In regards to if the referendum should fail, is there anything where we could start some sort of, maybe what you will, independent provincial political party?
00:32:08.160I think there's a lot of ways this will go, and it really depends on that, the number.
00:32:13.700Like, if it's an 80-20 split, which I don't think it will be, I think it's going to be much higher.
00:32:20.520um i think uh creating a new party there's going to need to be conflicts within the existing ones
00:32:29.280um and and leadership races are a great way as we've we're seeing in bc right now the fallout to
00:32:35.740the uh the leadership race where peter millibar supporters are leaving the bc
00:32:40.500conservatives that if there's a a vacancy at the top uh it has a tendency to create more friction
00:32:47.120within it. And, and at a federal level, I think, uh, I'm watching the, uh, state of Pierre Polyev's,
00:32:53.800uh, uh, his leadership very closely. Uh, Pierre, I like Pierre. I, I wish I had an answer for him
00:33:02.200to help, uh, with the polls. I think, uh, I think again, just the elbows up the, the anti-Trump
00:33:07.840patriotism is kind of working against him, but let's say Doug Ford, Corey Tanek, those guys,
00:33:14.320they get rid of them they manage to either by getting enough MPs or or through a leadership
00:33:20.500review process uh in the conservative party constitution they they turf them and there's
00:33:26.600a leadership race to replace them and we get some Laurentian establishment figure I don't know
00:33:31.840Carolyn Mulrooney for example I don't think the party will stay together and and I don't know how
00:33:39.600it'll play provincially uh we can get into that in a second but if that's the case then i do think
00:33:48.140that there will be an impetus for a new western base party or perhaps a alberta block a block
00:33:54.880alberta um you've obviously changed the name but um i think that that anger has to go somewhere
00:34:04.060um and and honestly there's i had uh former cabinet ministers uh alberta cabinet ministers
00:34:11.740i've had conversations with them that there's always a latent independence movement in alberta
00:34:16.500like i'd say there's when times are fantastic uh when we have conservative part uh conservatives
00:34:24.340in power in ottawa and we have uh you know republicans in the u.s and things are going
00:34:30.780good and our western alberta's economy is booming ottawa is not imposing uh draconian measures on
00:34:39.780our industries that even then there's a latent 20 support but what you have uh in the federal
00:34:48.480party are distinct regions that don't always align and we're seeing that right now we're
00:34:54.580seeing that with the ontario conservatives uh that are very much it's this is about protecting
00:34:59.820their industries above above the nation they're they're much more paternalistic in the way that
00:35:05.100they approach governing uh doug ford uh wears the conservative logo but a lot of people out west
00:35:10.900would you know it's one of those things like i worked at the uh alberta legislature before coming
00:35:15.940back here and i always said if it's coming out of queen's park which is the ontario legislature
00:35:19.320i don't want it i don't want to see it uh so i think that kind of creates tension within the
00:35:25.680federal party um provincially it's a different story i think a lot of the anger is already
00:35:32.100internalized i think the uh ucp membership is strongly in support of at least taking a stronger
00:35:41.760stance on ottawa i think in terms of independence that we'll see where the vote lines up but
00:35:46.680obviously the the large portion of independent supporters are already embedded within the ucp i
00:35:52.780have heard rumors out of Edmonton rumors not fact that Smith is planning on pivoting away from the
00:36:00.420this pro Ottawa stance sometime in the fall I think now is probably the time to move on that
00:36:07.900like especially if Keystone was being used as a bargaining chip and it's not just in the
00:36:16.300conversation and Carney's pulling it off the table like that to me is like an absolute red
00:36:21.400flagged it. You can't trust this MOU. You can't trust the federal government to follow through
00:36:27.040on this. So provincially, I think within Alberta, there's less of a chance of a split. I think
00:36:34.860Smith does have an opportunity or at least will be given an opportunity to reverse course. But
00:36:41.260I mean, I don't know if it's too little too late. I mean, I think that was one of the issues with
00:36:46.540her trying to reestablish herself after crossing the floor to the pcs i mean the pc party
00:36:51.460rejected her at her own riding level because they didn't trust her so it's one of those things where
00:36:58.440there is a tremendous amount of anger towards the premier on this particular topic and whether she
00:37:06.400can find her groove again and and this is one where i was going to come on the air a couple
00:37:13.020weeks ago um and basically declare rob anderson's free alberta strategy dead um i'm not gonna i'm
00:37:20.540not there right now um obviously i had to deal with some personnel stuff in the office so i had
00:37:25.600to can the episode but i think uh their approach to trade has been an area that the free alberta
00:37:33.240strategy shines um it's the concept that alberta should have uh its own negotiation strategy it
00:37:40.320should be representing its interests on the international stage because we can't trust the
00:37:46.880federal government to negotiate for us and based on what we're seeing now with keystone being used
00:37:52.240as a as a chip i mean i i think that proves that point but the rest of it uh you know like i'd like
00:37:59.060to see the sovereignty act used more i think we're going to need to you know oh actually that was
00:38:04.520working for a second there's a lot that we have to do so um yeah i i think uh internally to the
00:38:12.380ucp she's gonna have to pivot otherwise there's going to be a revolt i don't think uh it's gonna
00:38:20.400happen immediately but she's losing me pretty quickly here uh do we have any other callers
00:38:26.820no i can go through the comments uh oh i'm still here yes uh howdy from parkland county oh is he
00:38:36.240still on the line can you go ahead yeah i don't hear him okay carney doesn't understand uh david
00:38:49.720w carlson says carney doesn't understand how important trump's national security strategy
00:38:54.700or Monroe Doctrine is to the safety and security of the Western Hemisphere.
00:43:24.580That's to tax the crap out of us to pay for services that aren't paid here.
00:43:29.600Albertans, as of right now, as of I think the last time I did this was 2024, 25 numbers, but we pay about 15 percent of all federal taxes, like all the money that goes into the federal coffers.
00:43:41.180Fifteen percent of it comes from Alberta.
00:43:43.320And there's about 11 percent of the people of the Canadian population that lives here.
00:43:47.040So every time that there's a federal transfer, a fiscal transfer, it's 11%, 11.6 or whatever.
00:43:55.560So there's a discrepancy of, well, if you think about every dollar in federal tax, 4 over 15, that's 25%, 20% of every federal tax dollar that Albertans pay just goes to everyone else and we don't see it back here.
00:53:18.520yeah like and i think the frustrating part is that
00:53:24.500the anti-alberta independent sentiment the canadian pride at all costs is permeated
00:53:34.440not just not just through the public sphere in the rest of the country i think that it
00:53:44.140has firmly entrenched itself in the Alberta legislature building I think the concept of
00:53:48.420standing up for Alberta against federal intrusion which is in my opinion the absolute baseline of
00:53:55.740what a new deal should look like is off the table as long as we have this attitude it's it's amongst
00:54:03.300the cabinet ministers it's amongst the staffers it's amongst maybe not the backbenchers but
00:54:10.180But that's kind of what I see is a situation where Smith is being pulled one way by forces within her party and then the professional conservatives, as I like to call them, now that they've burned Pierre Polyev's chances at prime ministership to the ground are now being hired in senior government positions after four months of experience in a losing cause.
00:54:34.000Like, I mean, if they won, we'd be having a different conversation entirely, but they lost.
00:54:38.120So we have this. It's it's it's the culture, the culture in the legislature does not adhere to standing up for our province, even the bare minimum, like the firewall letter, which we haven't seen any of them implemented.
00:54:53.380We've seen certain aspects, you know, looked at, but at the end of the day, like pension plan, for example, we released a report, fumbled it, and then moved forward.
00:55:33.700And now I'm just, like, incredibly disappointed with, I don't know, she seems like she got body snatched.
00:55:39.060Like, she was so against a nationalized energy program, but now she wants the taxpayer to foot 90% of the bill, you know, which is pretty much just nationalizing your energy.
00:55:52.920And I think, well, this is an opinion more than a question, I guess.
01:05:02.820i'm an albertan and absolutely disgusted with 12 years of trudeau carney liberals
01:05:17.380ndp wef puppets selling out alberta canadians and canada it's not trump's fault it's trudeau
01:05:25.800Carney, liberal, NDP. Yeah. And, and I think the reaction to the feds, uh, like it's
01:05:34.720nationalism is now almost linked with Trump derangement syndrome. Like if you say that,
01:05:45.580yeah, like if I was an American, like if I lived in Texas, I don't, I'd be all for this.
01:05:50.960i'd be a hundred percent yeah rename it lake of ontario like lake erie can be renamed uh to
01:05:57.880something else like i mean i'd be all for it but because we're canadian and because our mainstream
01:06:04.360media is so adamantly in line with the liberals um you don't get that and and and i will say
01:06:16.760one thing um before we go because we are actually past clock but um one thing that i do think that
01:06:26.020this referendum is going to have uh an impact in terms of the public discourse is long run
01:06:33.900it will code canada as a left-wing country there aren't enough conservatives that are standing up
01:06:41.680for canada in the way that people are uh you know uh feeling good about um and in alberta i think
01:06:55.300there was a decision recently made to revisit the flag policy uh in schools and obviously
01:07:01.640bird a proud dad he was on cory morgan yesterday he talked about that um and i think that decision
01:07:07.220from what i heard was made because cabinet didn't want the inflammation of the situation
01:07:14.500they didn't want to deal with the backlash i think a bunch of teachers flying pride canadian flags
01:07:23.780would be more benefit to the alberta government and to the well maybe not to the government uh0.97
01:07:31.380maybe not the press secretaries probably hate that i don't give a shit about the press secretaries0.93
01:07:35.340So, uh, sorry. Um, but in terms of just positioning, I think it would definitely code Canada on left and right. And that I think is where the divide is. It is very much that Canada is not a conservative country.
01:07:55.760it is the growing disbelief that it ever will be again if an if a free enterprise conservative like
01:08:02.780Pierre Polyev gets brushed aside at the mere mention of Donald Trump then maybe this thing's
01:08:07.820over maybe we're just waiting for somebody to to vote to leave maybe that's Alberta maybe that's
01:08:14.640Quebec I don't know their election's coming up we'll see but it's I see that there's an American
01:08:20.600in there what does that say william roble i'm an american and live in texas and i support alberta
01:08:26.520independence see i knew we had one thanks william that's exactly it like there's a certain degree
01:08:33.480of and there's another one canada's inferiority complex will sink it
01:08:38.040like that's exactly the point we are an inferior country we are not great we are a middle power
01:08:49.840We've got prime ministers that are bragging about being a middle power.