Western Standard - Will Kenney replace Poilievre？

00:00:00.000 today is july 29th 2026 i'm derek phildebrand publisher of the western standard and your

00:00:29.840 watching the pipeline i've got our normal crew here nigel henneford cory morgan dave naylor

00:00:36.420 welcome gentlemen good to be here tighten up our introduction here no waste everyone's time as much

00:00:42.040 uh just quick reminder to everybody uh if you're not yet a member uh subscriber of the western

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00:01:22.800 We're going to talk about the trade war.

00:01:24.960 I think we're going to piss everyone off. 1.00

00:01:27.500 I at least think everyone's being an idiot. 1.00

00:01:30.120 Sometimes war, there is no good guy. 1.00

00:01:33.000 Sometimes everyone's a bad guy.

00:01:35.220 I kind of feel like it's the Eastern Front or something here. 1.00

00:01:38.480 There's just no good guys in this fight right now, and we're all being idiots. 0.98

00:01:43.120 Jason Kenney, pretty clearly running at this point to replace Pierre Polyev. 0.97

00:01:50.300 We're going to tease that out a little bit.

00:01:52.500 But first, we'll start here close to home.

00:01:56.100 Elections Alberta tilting the field for the Federalist side in the independence referendum that's coming up.

00:02:04.920 You know, there are very, there's a bunch of rules that get changed every couple of years, trying to plug this loophole into that loophole.

00:02:12.020 Water in politics, money in politics is like water.

00:02:15.280 It's just going to find a way.

00:02:16.580 There's no way to keep it out.

00:02:18.760 So governments are constantly trying to stick their finger in the crack in the dam, plug the leak, and then the money just moves somewhere else.

00:02:29.400 That's the way it works.

00:02:30.420 But there's pretty clear rules around this stuff.

00:02:32.660 And if you're campaigning in an election or you're campaigning on a question in a referendum that's taking place in Alberta, you're required to register as a TPA, a third-party advertiser.

00:02:43.120 And a bunch of groups have. Every single group on the independent side has. Some of the smaller groups on the Federalist side have. But the biggest single Federalist group, the one that actually led the anti-independence petition to have a referendum, take back Forever Canada, Thomas Lukasik's group there, clearly the biggest of the Federalist groups, particularly on the left.

00:03:08.420 but for some reason

00:03:10.900 it's not a campaign

00:03:12.740 they have campaign signs

00:03:14.560 they have campaign offices, they have campaign buses

00:03:16.760 they have campaign literature

00:03:17.900 they have all the hallmarks

00:03:20.780 of a fairly big campaign

00:03:22.400 but for some reason

00:03:23.900 the elections in Alberta says

00:03:26.140 no, that's not a campaign

00:03:27.560 Corey, I know you have your own

00:03:30.320 third party advertising group

00:03:32.120 I know you just kind of started out of your garage

00:03:33.640 but maybe a little thing

00:03:34.440 I have

00:03:36.720 by chance i actually uh saw it on the weekend i don't motorcycle trouble coming through your

00:03:41.900 area i i saw your uh your shop there you run and uh all the trouble you've gotten yourself into

00:03:46.960 uh but why on earth is elections alberta saying that what you are doing which is that you know

00:03:55.840 it's a lot but it's a much smaller scale uh what you're doing has to be registered and you have to

00:04:01.260 report all your finances and who donates the money but forever canada the biggest of the

00:04:06.340 anti-independence organizations is not a campaign and they don't have to.

00:04:11.100 The why is the big mystery that I don't know and nobody else quite knows.

00:04:14.800 I mean, people are speculating about why the chief electoral officer refuses to call a spade a spade in this case.

00:04:21.700 And it's just to the point of so undeniable.

00:04:26.060 I wonder if Lukasik isn't trying to have a lark on Albertans with this.

00:04:30.280 And it's got me floored.

00:04:33.160 I listened on talk radio the other day on Courtney Theriault's show, and Lukasik was actually on it.

00:04:40.720 And Lukasik's case is saying, well, we'll comply, but Elections Alberta hasn't asked us to.

00:04:47.280 Well, that's like, I can't go 180 on the highway and then claim, well, the police never asked me to stop.

00:04:54.120 You know the speed limit.

00:04:55.200 You follow it.

00:04:56.600 It's just level and level of absurdity.

00:04:59.460 One of the things Lukasik did say, because the host, you know, to his credit, did question him a bit, said, well, how much have you raised?

00:05:06.060 He said, well, we're transparent.

00:05:06.920 Well, how much have you raised?

00:05:07.820 Well, we're being transparent.

00:05:08.720 Well, how much have you raised?

00:05:10.000 And he said, oh, I don't know, half a million maybe.

00:05:12.540 Okay.

00:05:13.380 Well, that's the most transparency we've seen from him so far.

00:05:16.980 Just to lay out for a lot of people who don't follow all these rules, what we are bound by is third-party advertisers.

00:05:22.460 I can't take a contribution from anybody outside of the province of Alberta.

00:05:26.460 And I think a lot of these rules aren't unreasonable.

00:05:28.480 I mean, it's supposed to be a local event.

00:05:30.140 And Thomas Lukasik has explicitly solicited donations from outside Alberta.

00:05:34.820 Maybe even outside Canada.

00:05:35.780 We don't know.

00:05:36.080 We don't know.

00:05:36.760 We have no way to know.

00:05:38.880 We can't take more than $5,000 from any individual or corporation.

00:05:42.640 That's a maximum.

00:05:43.340 And that's spread between the TPAs, too.

00:05:45.400 So you can't give five to each of them.

00:05:46.780 You can only give five per election.

00:05:49.060 And you can only raise a maximum of $607,000 for the whole campaign, which sounds like a lot of money.

00:05:55.520 But when you look at a general election, a political party will spend millions and millions of dollars, $607,000 to try and campaign to a whole province is limited.

00:06:02.740 I thought that cap, I'll never reach it, but I know I went and raised $150,000 so far somehow.

00:06:07.280 And who knows, I might hit against that.

00:06:09.480 I hope not because I'm already exhausted, but I'm still asking.

00:06:12.540 You know, we're in for the campaign for the whole.

00:06:14.640 So not unreasonable things.

00:06:16.020 Weekly, we have to report.

00:06:17.460 We have to fill out this form.

00:06:18.600 It's a real pain.

00:06:19.260 You've got to actually do it donor by donor with a drop-down window and you put it all onto Elections Alberta.

00:06:23.740 There's another aspect of it, the disclosure. Anybody who donates more than $250 to your third-party advertiser, their name will be published on Elections Alberta website.

00:06:35.080 You know, it doesn't give all the rest of their information, but it does say that.

00:06:37.380 And is it limited only to individuals?

00:06:39.180 And corporations.

00:06:40.060 And corporations.

00:06:40.800 Yeah. So these are some pretty big things, though. You know, when we were constrained by those, I mean, I did have anecdotally an individual saying, well, you know, I'd like to give $10,000.

00:06:51.880 can we find a way to do it? I said, no, I'm going to get myself in that soup. I really appreciate it.

00:06:55.660 But, you know, you want to form a couple of corporations and give it in, you know, we'll do it.

00:06:59.160 But that's the way these rules work and we just won't change. And there's people, there's interests

00:07:04.920 who have a big interest in swaying this election. So it wouldn't be beyond belief that there could

00:07:10.340 be some very large funders behind Mr. Lukasik's campaign. But again, the big mystery is why on

00:07:16.520 earth will the elections officer not admit it's a campaign why are they giving him a pass there

00:07:22.760 have been complaints it sounds like there's going to be legal action going against elections

00:07:25.880 alberta pretty soon because it's just as clear as day as you said there's campaign offices they say

00:07:31.320 campaign on the sign but it's not a campaign yeah lukasic said to the bbc in an interview he said

00:07:37.120 we must win this referendum like he's taking a side in the referendum there's no definitions left

00:07:43.420 of where he hasn't proven he's campaigning.

00:07:46.140 The only person in Alberta

00:07:47.500 that doesn't believe he's campaigning

00:07:48.540 is the chief electoral officer.

00:07:50.140 The question is why,

00:07:51.880 and I hate to say it,

00:07:52.740 but it comes down to two things. 0.99

00:07:53.680 Either he's biased or he's inept. 0.98

00:07:57.040 But both cases, 0.99

00:07:58.020 this is the person in charge

00:07:59.060 of our democratic institutions.

00:08:00.800 And this is very serious.

00:08:02.020 I mean, this goes beyond

00:08:02.860 the referendum into elections.

00:08:04.760 In fairness, there is a federalist side

00:08:08.340 that is complying with the rules.

00:08:10.860 Stephen Carter's.

00:08:11.760 so it's you know they're they're playing by the rules but again yeah you're right

00:08:17.380 and the task group is the biggest of them another area uh to be in fairness too actually

00:08:23.380 state-free alberta is listed as a third-party advertiser but they haven't put any of their

00:08:30.180 financials out there yet uh when you look on it there's been zero raised and zero spent well i'm

00:08:34.560 not sure if they have done it they did the work around getting the signatures for uh that was a

00:08:39.380 Yes. And then they did register as a third party advertiser. If you look on the group's list, it's in there. And there was a telethon held a little while ago where presumably a portion of funds were raised by them. I can't answer for them, but for whatever reason, they appear not to have disclosed any of that yet either, which is.

00:08:55.080 But they are at least required to.

00:08:57.540 Well, I don't know. Luke Kasich is listed on the site as well, but he just hasn't done anything with it. He hasn't put his fundraising numbers in or disclosed. It's very strange in general.

00:09:09.380 Uh, but I, I imagine Steve free is going to have to answer to some things pretty soon

00:09:14.740 too.

00:09:14.960 It's $500 a week for every week.

00:09:16.780 We don't file if we do not, um, I I'm as stumped as anybody else, why they're digging

00:09:24.240 their heels in so hard on trying not to make Mr.

00:09:26.620 Lukasik do like everybody else has.

00:09:28.380 So here's from the federalist side.

00:09:31.540 I'm not sure why they would be okay with this because, you know, if the polls are to be

00:09:37.280 believed, and at least to some extent I would believe them, the Federalist side has the clear

00:09:41.320 advantage here. They have more support than the Nationalist or Independent side. So if you're

00:09:47.940 betting, they're likely to win. If you're just putting money down on red or black here,

00:09:54.300 Federalists are favored to win. And, you know, they've all said, well, we need to rack up the

00:09:59.060 score. We don't just need to win. We need to win big to put this separatist boogeyman to bet.

00:10:03.840 but that's not going to happen if they win but there's now very clear and serious questions

00:10:10.480 about the fairness of the process if one side is held to the letter of the law and the other side

00:10:15.760 is clearly allowed to break it and everybody knows it that means that even if the federalist

00:10:22.040 side wins the referendum nigel this allows independent supporters if they were to lose

00:10:27.960 the referendum to say well we don't accept the results of that because our side had to register

00:10:33.660 our side had to report we were limited to uh donation cap and donors inside of alberta and

00:10:39.820 you've got the biggest of all of the federalist groups here uh it has not had to comply with

00:10:45.180 donation limits it hasn't had to limit its donors to just alberta or even canada for all we know um

00:10:53.020 this does this means that even if the federalists win they don't get a clean win

00:10:56.540 that beggars belief that that's a good long-term strategy for them yeah well it's uh the thing

00:11:03.560 derek is that people who have the opportunity to tilt something in a direction that they want

00:11:11.360 even if they are officials will sometimes take that opportunity think that they're doing their

00:11:16.260 patriotic duty i am minded of the judge who recently a couple months ago now dumped the um

00:11:24.380 the first referendum.

00:11:26.800 I said, no, no, you can't do that.

00:11:28.520 So now we ended up with this referendum

00:11:30.160 on whether to have a referendum.

00:11:32.780 My advice

00:11:34.380 is that the judge acted

00:11:36.060 improperly and that on appeal

00:11:38.520 that would be lost. But of course the appeal

00:11:40.140 wouldn't get heard until

00:11:41.440 next year or something.

00:11:45.020 But she probably,

00:11:46.440 I haven't asked her, but she probably

00:11:48.320 feels she did a good patriotic thing for

00:11:50.200 Canada by just pitching that

00:11:52.340 referendum off the

00:11:54.360 ballot sheet well now we come to the issue we're talking about now an official or some officials

00:11:59.620 within elections alberta i can't say this for a fact none of us can but the evidence is that as

00:12:08.200 they have not acted they didn't intend to act why did they not intend to act i don't know the point

00:12:14.360 you raise about it being an unclean victory is one that had i been that individual would have

00:12:19.100 made me think about it uh but uh they maybe thought about it and came to a different conclusion

00:12:24.000 Well, I mean, this has got to be irking, as you said, Dave.

00:12:27.460 This isn't necessarily going to be a clean fight.

00:12:29.900 This is what I'm saying.

00:12:30.780 Everybody I've talked to on the independence side of things says, well, you know, we do this and then we do that and then we invoke the Clarity Act.

00:12:43.560 Yeah.

00:12:44.480 Well, it isn't going to be that simple.

00:12:46.880 And if you get as far as the Clarity Act, you're going to find that there's so many ways that the other side can manipulate that.

00:12:54.400 You get nowhere. So it's stacked against the very much stacked against the independent side.

00:13:00.620 Yeah. But, I mean, Dave, you know, you talked you said that, you know, there were there are federal federalist groups in the campaign who have registered and are reporting and are complying with the law.

00:13:11.240 This is I would imagine this has got to irk them.

00:13:13.860 I mean, you know, they're fighting, at least as best as we can tell, they're complying with the law, they're engaged in a fair, it might not be an even fight, one side's got a ton more institutional support and whatnot, but they're complying with the law, so, you know, fair from that perspective.

00:13:32.500 But it means that even if they win, then, you know, they have to answer for what the bigger group on their own side has done here.

00:13:40.000 That the independent side, if it was to lose here, can say, no, this was not a fair fight.

00:13:45.360 We don't accept the outcome of this.

00:13:46.800 We get to have another vote at some point because one side had to comply with the law and the other one didn't.

00:13:53.600 Yeah, I got to wonder what Luke Hazek is doing.

00:13:56.480 Surely he's got to be keeping records of all this just in case.

00:13:59.920 If he does get called to court or if there is a lawsuit, he better have some names and he better have some figures and they better all be accounted right or he's in big trouble.

00:14:11.180 But yeah, if I'm Stephen Carter and I'm following the rules as he is doing, I would be frustrated too because you don't want people on your side flouting the law.

00:14:23.040 And that's what Lukasik is doing at the moment with apparently a blind eye turn by Elections Alberta.

00:14:28.280 Well, and I did, again, I do a lot of driving lately.

00:14:32.240 I do a lot of public speaking events.

00:14:33.520 So I listen to a lot of podcasts while I drive.

00:14:35.420 And I listen to Stephen Carter's with that former NDP,

00:14:39.560 Shannon Phillips.

00:14:40.320 He has a podcast they do regularly and it hurts,

00:14:43.140 but I got to listen to the other side.

00:14:44.920 And he is upset about it.

00:14:46.260 He has been lodging complaints.

00:14:48.320 You know, Carter's a weasel.

00:14:49.900 I have very little use for the man in general,

00:14:52.280 but one of the things he does like doing actually is finding things like

00:14:56.000 laws and then finding legitimate loopholes or ways to bend and stretch them he's never been

00:15:00.220 one to feel constrained by the hard lines of them but he still even he isn't trying to bend the

00:15:05.720 disclosure and things he understands they're straightforward rules and he is questioning

00:15:09.820 lucasic saying how on earth is this man getting a pass on this so i don't know how much longer

00:15:13.960 the electoral officer can get away with not acting i really don't premier smith was asked about it

00:15:17.980 and she says she's surprised that uh he doesn't have to file so when you've got the premier saying

00:15:23.440 yeah what's going on it's yeah it's something to clarify because i've had a lot of people

00:15:26.740 emailing me in context why doesn't smith intervene why doesn't you get in there but that's a dangerous

00:15:30.580 precedent too we do not want a premier directly meddling with the electoral it's supposed to be

00:15:36.700 like a court it's supposed to be separate from the political process we don't want to start that

00:15:40.540 down that road i mean that's why it's often usually goes to an all-party committee or something if

00:15:44.600 you're going to change things directly with that we don't have time for that we have a referendum

00:15:48.120 them in three months so this this officer that's where well from start to finish uh what's this

00:15:53.100 what's his name again the chief electoral officer i can't remember yeah but from start to finish i

00:15:57.420 mean uh the way they acted with the into pro-independence petition uh you know trying

00:16:03.300 intervening at court time after time after time to try and stop it um when they applied no such

00:16:10.120 tests to again lukazic's citizens initiative petition they have treated the two sides

00:16:15.420 differently from the very beginning. It's just continuing on. And it means that if the Federalists

00:16:22.280 do win in this, no one's required to accept that outcome at this point.

00:16:29.000 Well, and getting to what Nigel was talking about too, with how they're going to throw up every

00:16:32.080 roadblock possible. I mean, if it gets to a Clarity Act referendum, what's the federal government

00:16:35.540 going to start throwing up in front, even if there was a yes vote? The thing I got to warn

00:16:39.180 people of, and I don't want it to be misinterpreted as a threat, but we got to watch the things. When

00:16:42.840 you take away all the democratic means for change and you have a very dedicated group of people who

00:16:48.180 want to make the change, they will start to seek non-democratic means to make change. And nobody

00:16:52.820 wants to see that. I do still say to this day, it's the fact that there was at least as difficult

00:16:58.420 as it is a democratic outlet for the independence and movement in Quebec that has kept the FLQ from

00:17:03.820 ever reforming and ever becoming a thing ever again, because they're saying, look, no, we'll

00:17:08.020 dedicate our energies, as difficult as it is

00:17:10.040 through referenda and a party system

00:17:12.260 to get this done.

00:17:13.760 I would hate to see something like that.

00:17:16.020 Okay.

00:17:18.360 Well, one guy with

00:17:19.880 one of the anti-independence

00:17:21.800 organizations is Jason Kenney. 1.00

00:17:24.000 And so this is, I think, a good

00:17:25.720 segue into

00:17:27.540 his leadership campaign.

00:17:30.080 Jason Kenney is not yet

00:17:31.820 at present the leader of the Federal Conservative

00:17:33.840 Party, but

00:17:35.620 you know, it was

00:17:37.260 it's always been known that that was

00:17:39.540 his ambition. It was one of the

00:17:41.580 things that weakened him, I think, when he

00:17:43.540 was the Premier

00:17:44.200 is that he

00:17:47.140 could always see his peripheral vision

00:17:49.700 was on the Prime Minister's

00:17:51.480 chair.

00:17:53.160 That's something that's always kept Smith in a stronger

00:17:55.500 position because I think the height 0.99

00:17:57.640 of her ambition is to be the Alberta Premier. 0.99

00:17:59.880 That's as good as it

00:18:01.620 gets, whereas Kenny seemed

00:18:03.660 to always see the Premier's chair as a

00:18:05.400 stepping stone. He's going to, you know, he comes back to Alberta from federal politics, gets the

00:18:09.540 parties together, beats the NDP, and then, you know, he saved the day, and then he gets the ride

00:18:15.200 back into Ottawa, you know, when the Conservative Party's in a position to win an election again.

00:18:20.880 Obviously, it did not work out as smoothly as I think he was planning on it being.

00:18:28.260 But for at least the last year, it's been, I think, very obvious that he's trying to position

00:18:32.700 himself as successor to Pierre Polyev. To his credit, he has not been out there like Doug Ford

00:18:38.660 trying to actively undermine Polyev. He's not out taking little shots and whatnot. That's something

00:18:44.020 Doug Ford has definitely been doing. Kenny has not done that, but he's been setting himself up

00:18:49.740 as a successor, someone he's not seen as undermining the current leader. But, you know,

00:18:56.040 he's been, you know, he positioned himself as the leader of the conservative anti-independent side

00:19:02.160 in the referendum here, which is probably important if you want to leave the federal

00:19:06.920 conservative party. It's running for seats in Quebec, Ontario, and the Atlantic. But also just

00:19:12.260 kind of taking random political positions that are unsolicited. So yesterday, he just seemingly

00:19:19.920 out of more or less nowhere, just released his policy position on supply management. It was a

00:19:26.700 good position, but I don't think that should be really controversial among conservatives now that

00:19:31.520 No, we should not have a system styled on the Soviet Union for our dairy and milk and eggs, of course.

00:19:39.180 But he's just kind of putting out random policy positions like this.

00:19:44.800 Where she'd brought it up when we were in office.

00:19:47.500 Would have been nice if he mentioned it when he had some power to actually do something about it.

00:19:51.400 Including his Alberta Premier, because the provinces actually do have power to undermine federal control over supply management.

00:19:59.040 But I don't know, I'd see, it's just, this is not a new thing,

00:20:02.580 but I'd see it, Nigel, as he's just kind of continuing to set the pins 0.67

00:20:07.560 for when Polyev eventually is no longer a leader.

00:20:12.420 That could happen soon, it could happen in a while,

00:20:14.900 it could happen after the next federal election,

00:20:16.020 but whenever it is, it's pretty obvious what he's doing,

00:20:19.080 trying to secure his position as the obvious successor.

00:20:22.240 I would say he probably wants to be on the short list, yes.

00:20:25.060 You know, one thing is certainly true. Pierre is in trouble. He passed his the party leadership assessment back in January without any trouble. I think it was 82 percent or something. But thanks to legislation that came in a few years ago, courtesy of Michael Chong, the party itself, like the caucus, the members of parliament, can actually have a leadership review more or less anytime they want.

00:20:53.300 so that's how uh that's how you're not tool was yeah and so the same thing could happen now

00:20:59.660 should it happen why would it happen those are bigger questions but uh the the sad thing is i

00:21:05.400 think that pierre polyev has called it right as far as policy policy is concerned all along

00:21:11.000 what's happened is that it has ceased to be exciting to be right and it would be more exciting

00:21:16.800 to be in power and therefore some people are getting restless and that is what may open up

00:21:23.360 the opportunity for somebody else including jason kenney uh to take a run at this so do you really

00:21:31.320 think he's in trouble yes all right i bow to your greater political knowledge but i mean other than

00:21:37.840 cbc talking heads from laurentia uh you know you don't see any mps coming out complaining about

00:21:46.780 Not in public.

00:21:47.780 Not in public.

00:21:48.780 We didn't with Aaron O'Toole either, but MPs for their political careers tend to keep

00:21:53.640 this pretty close to their chest.

00:21:56.020 I personally think he's okay until the next election.

00:22:00.280 If he loses, obviously, then he's gone, because I will have been twice.

00:22:04.020 You can't lose two and stay on.

00:22:07.160 Well, you could be right, Dave, and I certainly wouldn't, it was not a hill to die on, but

00:22:12.860 my my sense of the caucus is that they're saying well you know if we did go into an election

00:22:20.060 the result is a foregone conclusion that's what they're thinking and so therefore they want to go

00:22:25.740 with a new face enough of them at least to cause an issue and the reason i think is that

00:22:36.060 they don't feel that the hard-line conservative position is ever going to be popular

00:22:42.380 i mean folks like us who talk theory over our beers you know we're pretty sure that what the

00:22:48.700 conservatives offered at the last election was the right way to go and a better way to go than

00:22:52.860 what was voted for by the canadian public didn't vote but it was elbows up and donald trump yeah

00:22:59.500 if it was don't don't forget how far ahead paulia was in the polls before the last election yeah

00:23:04.860 until elbows up happened well but he's he has backed down on some policies he backed down on

00:23:10.780 on getting rid of media subsidies he backed down on getting rid of the cbc every single from the

00:23:16.300 earliest leadership campaign rallies all the way through until about halfway through the federal

00:23:21.360 election but halfway through he'd say and we're gonna sell the cbc building and fill it you know

00:23:27.940 make it housing for families and then about halfway through he really when he's in trouble

00:23:32.360 he says ah geez i could use some good news stories so he he gets rid of his uh promise to get rid of

00:23:38.680 media subsidies he gets and he just quietly drops his promise to get rid of the cbc he doesn't

00:23:44.440 mention these things at all now um his you know he's caricatured as being this hard right guy but

00:23:51.480 he's still fairly open borders on immigration i mean he's not as open borders obviously as justin

00:23:57.240 trudeau was but he's still fairly pro-mass migration they have not really gotten and that

00:24:03.320 is the biggest issue thing is there the four of us around this table know that the other most people

00:24:09.240 do not follow it that closely yeah and the image remains of pierre as being this smart but sometimes

00:24:17.560 too smart a little cocky young fellow who's really very promising but i don't know whether i want him

00:24:24.360 running the country that and that obviously is the way that laurentian i don't think his

00:24:29.080 his leadership change is not policy i think it is winnability can cure win and i don't

00:24:34.920 think that's perception that he's too far right it's just you know if you're in caucus you know

00:24:39.160 the conservatives are if polls are to be believed under current projections they're going to lose

00:24:43.080 a quarter of their seats a quarter to a third of their seats if you're in one of those you're

00:24:48.920 an mp in one of those marginal seats the guy could be the godfather of your child you uh

00:24:54.760 you might want, you might want to seem to gain a total anywhere. I mean,

00:25:00.240 that's the thing in these polls. And I don't know what it takes. I mean,

00:25:03.860 Mark Carney has underperformed by every single measure you could apply to him.

00:25:09.520 He's done terribly diplomatically with, with dealing with, with Trump as elbows up

00:25:14.720 as it might be. He's failing and backing down and losing economically.

00:25:18.860 He's been horrific. The budget's blown way out.

00:25:21.400 He's making Trudeau look like he was a responsible spender, yet his support numbers keep climbing.

00:25:28.820 I don't get it.

00:25:29.800 I don't understand it, so I can't put myself in the shoes of the people. 1.00

00:25:32.760 We don't know when Polyev will be gone, but, I mean, polls are to be believed. 0.95

00:25:37.620 He's nowhere close to winning an election right now, so, you know, at the latest, he would be gone. 0.55

00:25:42.380 If he doesn't win that election, it would be after the next one, but it could happen before.

00:25:45.200 But one way or another, there's always people jockeying.

00:25:49.520 And the up-and-coming, smell the blood in the water.

00:25:51.280 people smell the blood in the water

00:25:53.760 and when he's going to be gone I don't know

00:25:55.660 it could be sooner or later

00:25:56.880 but Ford has obviously smelt it

00:25:59.660 and he has positioned himself as

00:26:01.360 I'm the winnable candidate, I win elections

00:26:03.700 in Ontario

00:26:04.400 I'm uh

00:26:06.240 his popularity in Ontario is not at the moment

00:26:09.740 he's not so great just now

00:26:11.300 building his brand around that is maybe

00:26:13.560 short-sighted as that goes down

00:26:15.340 Kenny has

00:26:17.920 tried to position himself

00:26:19.600 as more consistently

00:26:21.180 conservative, which is very much at odds with his own record as the premier of Alberta.

00:26:28.180 But he's been setting the table, trying to position himself. And if I look at the current

00:26:33.960 field, and you know, people always come out of somewhere that you're not really expecting once

00:26:37.360 these races actually start. But if I'm looking at the current field of people who would succeed,

00:26:41.980 run to succeed Pierre Paulyov, who actually have a shot at winning, the two most likely would be

00:26:47.580 Jason Kenney and Doug Ford. I'd submit to you, Corey, that both of these individuals would be

00:26:56.460 unacceptable to the populist right in Alberta and Saskatchewan, that this would be, you know,

00:27:03.960 Ford unacceptable for his own reasons, but also Kenney from his own record as premier.

00:27:08.080 Ironically, having Kenney from Alberta as the leader of the Federal Conservative Party could

00:27:13.700 be what finally actually fractures Alberta out of the Conservative Party, at least in large parts of

00:27:19.620 Alberta. You could see a new reform coming if either of those guys takes the leadership of it.

00:27:25.320 And I mean, Kenny perhaps would have a better chance of holding the West, even though he's

00:27:28.960 kind of scorched the earth on the provincial level. Maybe his federal connections could

00:27:33.260 hold things together. But, you know, is he winnable in Ontario? I mean, Kenny's a political

00:27:37.640 creature. He's been a career political man since his youth, and he's been an effective one. But he

00:27:43.180 is a spent force now. I mean, he just doesn't know what else to do with himself. That's the

00:27:46.480 reality. He's not running for the right reasons. He's running because he doesn't know what else

00:27:49.880 he can do. He can't retire. He's got way too much ambition and work ethic. He's always been a work

00:27:55.840 horse. So, well, where's he going to go next? Provincial's done for him. He's going to make

00:28:00.560 a goal federal, but that's not the right reason. And that's not the reason that's going to unify

00:28:03.880 a party. And there are a lot of, yeah, true blue conservatives in Alberta who will have everything

00:28:10.580 in their power to take him down they will not accept him he might go down better in ontario

00:28:15.060 than you think kenny might be there like when here and that's when when alberta dumped uh

00:28:21.380 mr kenny there were people back east who thought well he was a good guy what's wrong with you

00:28:26.340 people yeah you know well they remembered the the immigration minister federal minister yeah

00:28:31.860 or even the taxpayers federation like that guy they just they didn't know kenny the alberta premier

00:28:38.180 so yeah it was yeah the same thing when i go out east so i wouldn't say he's starting from dry

00:28:41.700 ground back east and that's going to matter as well as a dub ford wins the ship in alberta

00:28:50.340 yeah i don't see alberta conservatives accepting either of those no uh very easily anyways i mean

00:28:55.460 ford would devastate the party in the west and uh kenny not so much but i think it would be a problem

00:29:02.100 i just see it's a really ironic thing that we could be looking that if either of those two

00:29:07.140 came together this process that started back in 1987 with the reform party which led to the

00:29:12.500 alliance which led to the formation of the conservative party as a principal conservative

00:29:16.900 party that actually governed for 10 years could all be over because you would just recreate the

00:29:22.340 old red tory party and it would be another brokerage group for eastern canada i don't know

00:29:27.060 well i don't know the federal conservatives have had red tories before look they give kind of

00:29:32.420 Andrew Scheer seems better now as a lieutenant, but he was not very conservative as the conservative leader.

00:29:38.120 And then you had Aaron O'Toole, who ran on some issues to the left of Justin Trudeau.

00:29:42.440 The party has survived its unity intact with left wing or center left leaders before.

00:29:48.340 I think the problem is both Ford and Kenney have been in executive power with a clear record that is a scorched earth for too many to accept.

00:29:58.120 Well, in Canada, it doesn't have a good record, actually, of premiers managing to make that leap to the prime minister's chair.

00:30:02.940 I don't think it's ever.

00:30:03.660 Never happened.

00:30:04.340 I mean, they've tried many a time.

00:30:06.080 You would think it's a rational jump that can be made, and the state's governors can get up to the presidency,

00:30:11.500 but they tend not to make that leap in Canada.

00:30:14.820 Just a small factoid that bears on this.

00:30:18.440 No conservative leader won more votes than Andrew Scheer did in the 2021 election.

00:30:24.060 More than 6 million.

00:30:25.420 More than Harper ever did.

00:30:26.420 are you sure

00:30:28.620 Olyev didn't win more this time

00:30:30.180 Olyev won over 40% of the vote

00:30:31.900 he did but he didn't quite talk sheer

00:30:34.180 shows that systemic issue we've got

00:30:36.260 with the system

00:30:36.900 okay alright

00:30:39.180 well we touched on it a little bit

00:30:42.380 Corey touched on it there

00:30:44.120 but the trade war

00:30:46.260 you know I know a lot of our

00:30:49.760 viewers listeners like Donald Trump

00:30:51.820 and you know there's moments where I still do too 0.95

00:30:54.140 Uh, but, but the guy is, he's just kind of a mad dog at times that there's no rhyme or reason to

00:31:02.480 it. You know, and if you want to do mad dog negotiating, that can often work with your

00:31:07.820 enemies, but with friends, it's, uh, it, it, it, it tends to alienate your friends and it's not 0.55

00:31:15.320 just alienating some elbows up liberal boomers who are sitting cushy and don't want to change

00:31:22.000 anything uh it even flummoxes me sometimes dave um you know the the new uh the gory howe bridge

00:31:30.060 for for example canada built this thing like that that's joint infrastructure uh i won't get into it

00:31:36.840 but you know when you when you're building a fence with your neighbor traditionally both help share

00:31:41.380 the cost of the fence because that's mutually shared infrastructure it's good for both sides

00:31:45.620 in this case canada had to build it completely out of pocket uh and this was opposed by the

00:31:51.680 who owns the ambassador bridge right next door to in detroit uh windsor there um who happens to be

00:31:57.200 one of donald trump's biggest financial backers and now trump is shutting this thing down it has

00:32:03.360 actually nothing to do with trade negotiations i think it's it's just pure corruption at this point

00:32:08.560 uh but but then you know we've got canada's response which is uh or ontario's response we're

00:32:15.360 We're going to, you know, liquor.

00:32:17.540 No, you know, we're not going to have, you know, Jack Daniels on the shelves.

00:32:23.820 And that'll show them.

00:32:25.160 It just seems like both sides are children at this point.

00:32:28.880 Yeah, pox on all their houses.

00:32:32.400 Doug Ford last week threw Alberta oil on the table and said, hey, bargaining chip.

00:32:37.680 You know, maybe we should use it.

00:32:40.300 And by that he meant cut it off.

00:32:42.740 Cut it off.

00:32:43.500 Yeah.

00:32:44.080 Yeah.

00:32:44.320 uh our legislature reporter will vassar talked to the prime minister today in red gear and asked him

00:32:50.640 if that was on the table and uh carney said no you have to be uh trustworthy you have to

00:32:58.080 be a trusted supplier you know canada is known as reliable throughout the world and you know

00:33:03.600 it's not fair to wouldn't be something that we would ever consider cutting off oil to our best

00:33:09.440 customer uh you know but we did capitulate on the bridge we gave uh you know the americans uh a cut

00:33:18.800 in the the tolls and the revenue though they didn't put a penny into building even though they

00:33:22.560 didn't put a single penny into building it uh you know carney was caught in a shall we call it a lie

00:33:30.400 in that one uh but yeah it all goes down to the uh the occupant of the the oval office when he

00:33:38.000 wants to deal with canada it'll get done the next day right now he's still upset with justin trudeau

00:33:44.720 uh he probably doesn't like carney that much uh you know and when we go and buy our fighter jets

00:33:51.040 somewhere else uh he's gonna get even more upset so the big beneficiary of this though let's not

00:33:58.080 forget is mark carney right he's seen as the fighter for canada and that's the only reason

00:34:04.640 i think that his popularity is uh is still up is because he's seen as the steady hand

00:34:11.520 believe it or not um so corey i want to talk about doug ford and the oil i'm sorry so doug

00:34:19.200 ford was saying you know and he said this before we've talked about it he said you know well we

00:34:24.480 should uh cut off all energy exports to the united states and well that means more than just hydro

00:34:30.960 going to New York and Michigan. That means an oil embargo. Now, America has invaded countries

00:34:41.940 with pretty flimsy pretexts before. Most of them always involve oil, beyond the stated pretexts.

00:34:51.100 Canada is by far the largest exporter to the United States of oil, much more in Saudi Arabia,

00:34:57.080 much more nigeria more more than anybody else uh if canada was to shut off oil exports united

00:35:05.560 states i'm pretty sure the u.s army be rolling down seventh avenue here in you know in 24 hours 0.96

00:35:12.840 like they would never they'd head for hardesty yeah but they'd occupy the whole damn place

00:35:19.480 eventually uh but all but more importantly it would be a declaration of war from ottawa

00:35:25.560 against Alberta. It would send us into a depression that made the Great Depression

00:35:30.140 look like nothing. We'd probably be at 33% unemployment, give or take. Provincial government

00:35:35.960 would go bankrupt without the royalty revenue. And of course, it would completely torpedo our

00:35:42.000 credibility in the long term, as Carney, to be fair, rightly pointed out. You've got to be a

00:35:45.680 reliable and trusted exporter. But this kind of, if Justin Trudeau was still prime minister,

00:35:53.440 i think this would they might have already done it by now you might be economically dumb enough 0.55

00:35:59.540 to do that it is carny has been limited maybe nothing ontario premiers have done this before

00:36:04.140 uh you know before even my time but ontario progressive conservative premier bill davis

00:36:11.600 in the 1980s stood side by side with pierre trudeau supporting the national energy program

00:36:16.540 that is yeah may have screwed alberta but it helps subsidize industry and protect industry

00:36:21.220 in Ontario um just I don't know with Doug Ford it's almost a bit uh Trumpish and like should 0.99

00:36:29.280 we take him literally seriously but not literally or does he actually mean this crazy shit I think 0.98

00:36:35.060 he means it I mean he's reactive he's he's not one with deep thinking or planning he's never been 0.99

00:36:39.840 and it shows as you said I mean and it's not reasonable even Pierre Trudeau when we're talking

00:36:45.300 the protectionism the preferred pricing we had to give the rest of Canada decimating the Alberta

00:36:50.060 oil field, he still never talked about shutting off the actual supply going south of the border

00:36:55.200 because that would be an action just very directly modeled to hurt the American people. And that's

00:37:00.060 going to prompt a much worse reaction, as you said. Not only that well, or if he did that and

00:37:06.620 decimated Alberta's industry, because that's her bread and butter, they wouldn't need to march up

00:37:11.440 to Hardesty because Albertans would be busy building the wall on the east side of Alberta

00:37:14.700 already anyways and saying, well, fine, we're going to stick with our customer. 0.95

00:37:20.060 And Ford didn't think any of that through, but he's a performative, you know, to be blunt, buffoon. 0.96

00:37:25.260 I mean, pouring out his liquor at press conferences and all is, he's a windbag. 0.66

00:37:31.600 And how effective it might be.

00:37:33.620 People want to see a bit of that.

00:37:34.860 That is the difference between Ford and Trump, both of whom make wild comments.

00:37:40.980 Trump has leverage.

00:37:42.320 Ford genuinely doesn't think it through.

00:37:44.860 you could make the argument and i do that the extremities that of language that trump goes to

00:37:51.860 are actually performative for a purpose they they they just stir everything up and then finally

00:38:00.780 when everybody's excited oh no i didn't mean that and then and then then agreement is quick to come

00:38:07.160 i've seen it i mean we've seen it now this is the middle of the second term he did it today

00:38:12.060 You know, he said, John, have you got the bleeper ready? 1.00

00:38:14.580 He said he was going to bomb the fucking shit out of Iran. 1.00

00:38:17.340 Yeah. 1.00

00:38:17.940 Right?

00:38:18.440 And, you know, that's obviously unpresidential language,

00:38:21.080 but it sure got everybody's attention.

00:38:22.700 Yeah.

00:38:24.180 In Iran, too, I dare say.

00:38:26.160 Yes.

00:38:26.400 Well, let's, I mean, yeah, so this was, yeah,

00:38:29.800 Will Vassar, our reporter's question.

00:38:31.160 Well, Carney and Daniel Smith were in Red Deer.

00:38:35.420 And, you know, Carney does a lot of things, I think,

00:38:38.460 are not the right thing.

00:38:39.140 But I think his language was hard to disagree with today, Nigel.

00:38:45.020 You know, he seemed to understand how suicidal this would be.

00:38:50.980 If anything, it would hugely help the independent side win a referendum.

00:38:58.100 Like, there's a referendum coming up, and you're going to impose an oil embargo on Alberta

00:39:02.060 that would throw us into a Great Depression and bankrupt the provincial government.

00:39:05.140 I think he understands that.

00:39:06.900 I think he's also smart enough to know that this could actually provoke an American military presence.

00:39:15.240 The American military would simply not, the American government would never allow that to happen.

00:39:20.880 Maybe the oil gets shut down for an hour before troops show up at artistry.

00:39:26.340 But yeah, do you think that will hurt?

00:39:31.100 Like, Carney taking a fairly reasoned position on this, does that hurt him in Ontario where that kind of, you know, elbows up rhetoric propelled him to the Prime Minister's office?

00:39:43.300 Yes, I think being reasonable always comes across well for Mr. Carney.

00:39:47.280 That's why people like him.

00:39:49.680 Never a word or an emotion out of place.

00:39:52.740 And all the old ladies in Ontario think that's my boy.

00:39:56.600 And they continue to support and send money.

00:39:58.780 you know fighting talk does does not become him well and the elbows up thing got dropped as 0.97

00:40:06.600 quickly as it was raised and it was stupid in the first place but it was what got him over the line 0.94

00:40:11.600 to become prime minister i mean that's not to say that i have suddenly succumbed to mr carney's 0.97

00:40:17.860 charm he has his agenda and seeing alberta boom and alberta oil flowing eight million barrels a

00:40:25.600 as premier smith has said she aims that's not his policy he's still a greenie he still wants to

00:40:34.960 mitigate carbon emissions and if it twists us into a knot here in alberta then so be it he's

00:40:42.400 happy to do that what he will not do is go out and say something militant that might feel good

00:40:49.440 in the moment but will cause endless problems down the line he's a smart guy he's just not

00:40:55.600 my guy well and it's where he speaks too there's some political savvy i i don't know how much

00:40:59.760 traction that conference of an alberta housing announcement is going to gather in ontario and

00:41:04.000 quebec so he gave the right answer for what albertans would want to hear out here yeah

00:41:08.320 uh even if it might not you know some of the people who like ford's answer they might not

00:41:12.080 even hear about this answer on this side so it's playing where you are too then okay all right

00:41:17.360 let's take our putting shots dave i want to give credit to the city of seattle for declaring it

00:41:23.680 the summer of jimothy nigel you look very jimothy this malformed jimothy is a little

00:41:33.040 squashed raccoon he's only half a raccoon but still very adorable and still very he's alive

00:41:39.200 oh yeah oh yeah yeah and haven't you seen the footage wow oh yeah it's uh it's dominating uh

00:41:46.560 social media the last couple weeks so good on seattle for recognizing it and uh you know

00:41:51.920 hopefully it doesn't get run down embrace them i mean it's an underdog story truly they've got

00:41:57.280 plushies out now they got trading cards out you know people really jumped on it remember when

00:42:02.400 new york executed that uh squirrel and it became we even talked about it on the pipeline it actually 0.81

00:42:09.600 became like an election issue this is a handicapped raccoon that they've embraced yeah i thought

00:42:15.200 toronto had those uh those funeral vigils for uh i think it was a raccoon a raccoon that got killed

00:42:19.920 right yeah don't underestimate people's attachment to animals even if they don't like each other

00:42:26.360 yeah cory uh well actually i believe it was mr vassar as well asked the question about

00:42:31.100 equalization yes he did smith at the press conference and uh you know hats off to will

00:42:36.920 doing a great job hats back on to premier smith playing a mealy-mouthed oh well maybe we can

00:42:42.380 tweak the formula a little premier smith we had a referendum not long ago saying albertons want

00:42:46.960 rid of it, not tweaking it.

00:42:49.320 And I got to admit,

00:42:51.120 you know, she can only hold hands and smile

00:42:52.840 with Premier Carney for so long before

00:42:54.660 his reputation really starts to stick to her.

00:42:57.840 She's got to start, you know,

00:42:58.880 I think that was the motivation. Well, the Prime

00:43:00.820 Minister is literally standing behind me. I don't

00:43:02.820 want to take a hard anti-equalization stance.

00:43:05.800 The Albertans are watching too,

00:43:06.920 Premier Smith, and they're getting really impatient.

00:43:09.420 Where's the Danielle

00:43:10.300 we elected? The one 1.00

00:43:12.960 who was feisty.

00:43:14.660 I don't know where she is right now. I don't know, but 0.96

00:43:16.900 she better return pretty soon because there's an AGM this fall and there can be a lot of 1.00

00:43:20.860 crabby conservatives there. Nigel. So you ran a story, Dave, I think it was just today

00:43:26.760 about, or yesterday, about the town of Picton in Ontario, which just can't bring itself to

00:43:33.860 re-erect this statue of Sir John A. MacDonald, which was torn down and stored as a result of

00:43:41.220 nervous feelings so here's the thing that calls me to look up where in alberta do we have a statue

00:43:48.580 of sir john a mcdonald the answer there's not a statue of sir john a mcdonald anywhere in alberta

00:43:56.980 no i looked it up it's uh certainly not in calvary or edmonton we have one of sir winston churchill

00:44:02.340 and we have a you know a soldier from the boar war and a number of others but we don't have one

00:44:07.300 one at McDowell. If anybody knows where there is one

00:44:09.460 and they can send me a note, I'd

00:44:11.280 appreciate it, but that was the information that

00:44:13.560 I was able to retrieve.

00:44:15.300 So here's my bold suggestion.

00:44:17.520 If Picton does not want

00:44:19.200 a statue of Sir

00:44:21.360 John A. McDowell, let us

00:44:23.360 purchase it from them and

00:44:25.340 erect it.

00:44:27.300 I think it probably should go in the state capital

00:44:29.340 of Edmonton, but the provincial

00:44:31.380 capital, what am I saying? I think we should

00:44:33.300 put it at the

00:44:34.300 reconstituted Fort Calgary.

00:44:37.300 uh yes so maybe we maybe we need to we should think seriously about where they're going to

00:44:44.100 start a campaign we'll put a yeah put it right in the lobby of the western standard yeah darn right

00:44:48.420 anyway that's my parting shot yeah yeah fun it's not very well known but we actually have a statue

00:44:53.700 of william wallace in calgary really where uh somewhere near the jubilee uh i kind of kind of

00:45:02.500 randomly once uh but yeah i think it's i think it's william wallace okay well if we've got

00:45:07.840 churchill oh no or is it sir robert might be robert the bruce okay it's one of the two either

00:45:12.900 way it's a scottish hero so let's they're both great scots you've got him we've got him we've

00:45:17.820 got churchill but let's have one from you know maybe mr lukasic could divert some of his funds

00:45:24.100 no we're gonna have a statue of thomas lukasic set up the size of the statue of liberty as the

00:45:29.700 father of Alberta independence for starting

00:45:31.720 the petition. There you go.

00:45:33.880 He'll be our William Wallace.

00:45:35.320 Curve him into Rundle Mountain.

00:45:37.060 There we go. Mind quick,

00:45:40.080 just, there's

00:45:41.320 lots of viral video going around

00:45:43.260 of Indians protesting

00:45:45.280 in Alberta about

00:45:46.840 their permits are up,

00:45:49.740 they're supposed to go home,

00:45:51.300 how much we're actually going to do to physically

00:45:53.260 deport these people if they decide not to.

00:45:55.180 I imagine at least a very large number

00:45:57.120 are just going to slip into the

00:45:59.080 black labor market and uh at work unregistered but you know they're saying hey uh you know our uh

00:46:05.880 our the federal government's saying our degrees are because they're uncredited uh that doesn't 0.96

00:46:10.280 count as being qualified to work here well you shouldn't have gone to a diploma mill guys they

00:46:14.280 were you were clearly being scammed to come to canada but they were they had the understanding

00:46:20.040 i have i have a little bit of sympathy they were being scammed and they knew they were being scammed 0.90

00:46:25.320 So they have to pay this money to this diploma meal to get a bullshit degree so they could come into Canada. 0.98

00:46:30.340 But once they're done their bullshit degree, then they get to stay. 0.99

00:46:34.400 But then the feds change rules and say, well, we're not accepting the bullshit degrees anymore. 0.99

00:46:38.220 So, you know, take it up with the guy who scammed you. 0.98

00:46:41.360 So, but yeah, now we're seeing protests of these guys all around.

00:46:44.380 And it's like, you know, yeah, you got scammed.

00:46:47.220 You knew you were being scammed.

00:46:48.620 You just thought that there was a payoff at the end of the scam.

00:46:50.860 Now that the payoff is up, now you're upset.

00:46:53.900 No.

00:46:55.300 It said temporary work permit and temporary education visa.

00:47:00.320 Operative word being temporary.

00:47:02.220 Time to go home.

00:47:04.360 So.

00:47:05.280 All right.

00:47:06.520 You'll never do it, you know.

00:47:08.380 No.

00:47:09.320 No, I don't think so.

00:47:10.640 The scam ultimately is on all of us.

00:47:13.540 So.

00:47:14.560 All right, that's it.

00:47:15.380 Thank you, gentlemen.

00:47:16.180 Thank you, John, for the production.

00:47:17.060 Thank all of you who joined us today.

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00:47:35.640 Everyone who is a member of the Editor's Circle, that's our premium subscription at $20 a month or $200 a year.

00:47:42.940 You get to come on.

00:47:44.180 I'll be there.

00:47:45.220 Dave will be there.

00:47:46.740 You guys didn't get a lot of notice.

00:47:48.100 I don't know if you guys.

00:47:49.020 I will be there.

00:47:49.800 Oh, Nigel will be there.

00:47:51.060 Corey, are you going to be on there?

00:47:53.440 I think I am going to talk to them.

00:47:55.620 We'll have our opinion editor, Chris Oldcorn, on most of the senior management of the Western Standard will be there.

00:48:02.080 And it's kind of an accountability session.

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00:48:28.740 Thank you very much for joining us today, and God bless.

00:48:47.560 We'll see you next time.

Western Standard - July 30, 2026

Will Kenney replace Poilievre？

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