Anarchonomicon - February 18, 2025


Ep 5, HEAT (1995) and it's Implications for Modern Warfare w⧸hypozomata


Episode Stats


Length

3 hours and 40 minutes

Words per minute

144.16

Word count

31,801

Sentence count

333

Harmful content

Misogyny

8

sentences flagged

Toxicity

43

sentences flagged

Hate speech

63

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 They will chain you, like Prometheus, to a rock, where the memory of your own greatness
00:00:15.080 will gnaw you.
00:00:29.080 The battle for the mind of North America will be fought in the video arena.
00:00:35.080 The video drone.
00:00:37.080 You look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters.
00:00:42.080 the very minds of the people we are trying to save but until we do these people are still a
00:00:47.300 part of that system and that makes them our enemy no we're not doing that you're getting called a
00:00:53.620 slur after all there is nothing real outside our perception of reality is there you can see that 0.61
00:01:03.120 can't you tribal people uh one of their main uh kinds of sport is sort of butchering each other
00:01:10.120 You know, it's a full-time sport in Trump's societies.
00:01:13.520 You, my children, are the water.
00:01:16.860 They will wash away all that has gone before. 0.98
00:01:21.820 The gleam in the eye of sex.
00:01:24.520 It's very simple.
00:01:26.220 The message is force is more effective than voting.
00:01:29.980 Elections change nothing.
00:01:31.640 But I had some ideas we got global and tribal.
00:01:34.140 The closer we got together, the more you like each other?
00:01:37.480 Yeah.
00:01:38.180 There's no evidence of that in any situation that we've ever heard of.
00:01:42.300 Major Lennox answered with his life, as you should have done if you had any sense of honor.
00:01:46.440 You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged.
00:01:51.840 And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
00:01:58.740 He who saves a nation violates no law.
00:02:03.900 all forms of violence are a quest for identity when you live out on the frontier
00:02:11.120 you have no identity you're a nobody therefore you get very tough you have to prove that you 0.99
00:02:18.380 are somebody and so you become very violent i'm coming to kill you for greater safety please 0.99
00:02:25.980 avoid the english language please do not translate this message and so identity is always accompanied 0.95
00:02:36.860 by violence this uh seems paradoxical to you it works violence works therefore television is
00:02:46.440 reality and reality is less than television were you listening to me neo or were you looking at
00:02:53.760 the woman in the red dress it's just a grotesque post-modern psyop and anyone who's fallen for this 0.52
00:02:58.720 is brain damaged hello hello hello glorious listeners welcome to another exciting episode
00:03:05.120 of the anarchonomicon podcast we're coming to you live on channel 83 cable 12 12 civic tv the one
00:03:13.520 you take to bed with you i i'm your host cat girl cluck and i am joined today by hypo zamata
00:03:22.320 Tada.
00:03:23.500 A hypo, say hello.
00:03:25.800 Greetings, everyone.
00:03:27.680 So, hyposomata, you start explaining this to me before we start recording, but I want you to explain to everything.
00:03:34.280 What is a hyposomata?
00:03:36.640 So, a hyposomata is a callback to classical antiquity.
00:03:40.080 It is a taunt, stretched rope, extremely thick and extremely strong, stretched between the front and the end of an Athenian trireme.
00:03:50.080 used at the Battle of Salamis to add extra shock power and resiliency to Athenian warships.
00:03:58.580 It was called by Athenians at the time as a secret weapon since no other navy of the era
00:04:03.920 sought to stretch a taut rope between the front and the back of their warships,
00:04:09.220 and it meant that they were much more resilient to damage during ramming actions.
00:04:14.920 It's just a callback to an era where men fought with oars, rams, and boarding actions.
00:04:23.760 Now, you might think Hypo Zamata is a genius of ancient engineering, but he is a genius of basically all forms of tactical warfare.
00:04:37.100 I've not found one yet that he did not have a wellspring of information that intimidated even me.
00:04:45.240 Oh, no, no. I am a mere amateur.
00:04:48.740 I have run into true defense geeks that have orders of magnitude more than I do.
00:04:55.400 Ah, this is the tragedy of mastery.
00:04:59.580 You learn exactly how little you know.
00:05:02.940 but i consider hyposomata a true i consider him a true uh socratic master of of this field
00:05:14.740 in that he he truly understands how little he knows so which is why i wanted to have him
00:05:21.800 on the podcast to discuss maybe one of my possibly even my favorite film of all time
00:05:29.200 it's certainly top 10 uh the great meditation on modern warfare 1995's heat by michael mann
00:05:39.620 the legendary film about la bank robbers robbers and the cops who chase after them
00:05:45.800 them we watched this together on the anarchonomicon film film club and it it was maybe the
00:05:54.860 seventh time that i've seen seen the film and it still blows me away with all its details now
00:06:02.940 you listeners at home depending on the scene you're in you might have have been talked to
00:06:10.900 death about heat uh basically every gun tuber every every uh tactical call youtuber um all
00:06:21.080 of them have done videos in some way dissecting some element from heat. I know Administrative
00:06:26.520 Results has done it. I know Forgotten Weapons has had a special heat episode where they break down
00:06:31.660 individual scenes. This film is legendary for how accurate its gunplay and its tactical elements
00:06:39.000 are. And we really aren't going to top that level. I am not going to be able to break down
00:06:46.880 all the rifles for you however what no one ever talked about with this film film what no one ever
00:06:53.660 really gets into is how accurate the crime and the logic of the operations are how brilliantly
00:07:01.840 constructed the the opsec the tactical planning planning is and how really really clever you
00:07:12.420 could you could teach a course on this film film and just how beautifully it lays out all the
00:07:20.820 various elements of this elaborate ecosystem we're introduced to throughout the film that is crime in
00:07:27.200 la in the 90s 90s you have all the various levels of crime represented you have all the various
00:07:34.700 levels of policing represented you have stuff that goes down to like low-level prosecution
00:07:40.980 all the way up to cartel money launderers
00:07:45.360 and the entire spectrum of characters in between
00:07:49.940 and types of policing in between.
00:07:53.220 And then in the middle of it, you have this duel going on
00:07:57.140 between two of the best tactical operators and characters
00:08:03.180 ever put to screen, Robert De Niro's Macaulay
00:08:10.320 and Al Pacino's Lieutenant Vincent Hanna.
00:08:15.140 Neil Macaulay, Neil Macaulay.
00:08:17.100 No one calls him by his first name in the film.
00:08:19.600 The film was wonderful.
00:08:21.760 But yes, Robert De Niro's Neil Macaulay
00:08:24.140 and Al Pacino's Lieutenant Vincent Hanna.
00:08:26.580 Hanna going head to head throughout the film
00:08:29.460 in every, basically along every level of crime.
00:08:35.560 Like you have them playing the cat and nose game
00:08:38.100 of OPSEC surveillance, counter-surveillance, forensics, counter-forensics, you have the
00:08:44.520 mental psychological game where there's one of the most gorgeous scenes in any film where
00:08:52.620 they meet at the coffee shop, which is a real thing that actually happened between the real
00:08:59.380 life Neil McCauley and I can't remember the real life police officer's name, but there
00:09:06.580 is a real life detective chuck adamson in the 60s perfect that this was a story that that um
00:09:16.180 that director michael mann fan had heard heard from the man himself incorporated into the film
00:09:24.640 and laid out the story this way you have that psychological aspect then you have all the
00:09:29.780 tactical aspects that are going on and then you have this um the entire second half of the film
00:09:34.880 is kind of a a chase fugitive sequence sequence that doesn't quite play out like like one but
00:09:44.620 there's this entirely separate counter forensic investigative game of uh macaulay is he going to
00:09:52.420 get away is is vince and hannah gonna hunt him hunt him down and then you have the final duel
00:09:57.880 between between them and every single level of like tactical consideration every single level
00:10:03.880 of crime every single level of like operational considerations um even the logistics itself
00:10:12.100 is laid laid out in this film at a breakneck pace like you're watching this and it's easy
00:10:20.020 to miss all this because because it's buried in the background it's filth it's uh details are on
00:10:27.920 the screen that like the average audience isn't picking up on but your brain notices it and
00:10:35.780 generations now of professional criminals have like worn out their vhs of heat breaking apart
00:10:43.620 every individual scene to try and like pull out details for their own crimes and now we're almost
00:10:50.820 coming on and generations of youtubers have broken down individual scenes to pull out
00:10:56.000 One of those rare movies that puts so much more thought into how these things are laid out compared to the typical Hollywood film, that all of these considerations make sense because, A, they're based on reality, right?
00:11:11.340 Like, a lot of the scenes in Heat did happen, and B, they had a consummate professional SAS man, Andy McNabb, a Desert Storm veteran of many special operations, drill the casting crew for, like, three months how every aspect of gunplay, squad tactics, covering fire, egress, retreat, all of these things were drilled into them with a level of intensity befitting the highest levels of special warfare.
00:11:41.340 yes and it's in incredible and and the amazing aspect is that's not just that one limited
00:11:54.440 tactical element oh this film is really good for this this is every element so um
00:11:59.820 so jodie foster's dad john boyce plays a character nate who's like it something of a
00:12:07.480 minor supporting character he's a fixer for robert de niro neil mccall uh robert de niro's
00:12:13.800 neil mccauley and he's i could tell you right now that like a lot of people will watch the film
00:12:21.840 like have watched the film several times and don't even remember this character
00:12:25.620 but if you pay attention to him and how he's going about uh operating his business as a fix
00:12:33.280 sir and and negotiating all these details for macaulay uh uh fencing his stolen goods
00:12:40.440 arranging fake ids uh arranging outs and evacuations
00:12:45.500 giving him waynegrove's location right like yes yes but he he explains it that he doesn't
00:12:58.080 think neil should go for it but he feels bound to tell him because he did pay for
00:13:05.680 for the information requested and he did get his hand hands on it it's a code of honor there's a
00:13:13.020 code of honor there there's a like professional quality there that you're like oh i see exactly
00:13:18.360 why all these criminals are depending on this character and why like like this guy gets to be
00:13:24.780 like kind of a black box to them in terms of like how he's how he's negotiating between all these
00:13:32.260 criminal elements that like none of these elements trust each other but all of them will do business
00:13:38.120 with him but then there's also like a symbolic aspect to it that like this guy looks like an
00:13:44.140 old biker and um we were debating at one point whether or not he's wearing a like iron cross
00:13:51.300 like a pagan symbol that um that there's also a symbolic element to it like a odinic character to
00:13:59.700 him in which case it's like oh he's doing this for professional things but symbolically he's like
00:14:06.240 he's like odin the hunt master leading on neil to away from the peaceful life and towards valhalla
00:14:13.860 and glory and a glorious death and i would ask you here to determine whether this is coincidence
00:14:19.440 or not whether you have noticed other pagan themes in michael mann's work like has he made
00:14:25.200 these sorts of references before or is this an isolated incident uh so he there's definitely
00:14:31.900 like a strong focus on um on symbolism michael mann in collateral uh one of the defining
00:14:40.580 scenes that like everyone kind of remembers which which is a very small scene is the coyote scene
00:14:47.440 where um uh michael michael fox's character and um tom cruise are in the car and they've been
00:14:56.300 having this like battle back and forth of wills uh tom cruise has taken jamie fox hostage and
00:15:03.240 and as they're driving in this cab and are going to the like final shit out the final assassination
00:15:11.200 that that uh tom cruise tom cruise is doing they encounter a coyote on the road in like
00:15:18.580 this outskirt section of la and this has actually been set up by an earlier scene
00:15:23.420 scene where um where jamie fox makes an excuse that the reason his car is dented is because
00:15:31.960 he had a deer when really it was it was this action sequence in the shootout the
00:15:37.520 that occurred but he gets away from the cops by invoking this and then they actually do encounter
00:15:42.980 like wildlife in like a coyote in the mean streets of la which um has actually happened
00:15:49.280 to me not in la but in another city of like 3 a.m on like a back street when i was like
00:15:56.740 when i was you know running wild and in the night that uh valley i was bicycling down this
00:16:05.680 as as i do as i do uh not going to break down what i was doing at like 3 a.m
00:16:13.820 m on like a stormy night night in a major metro area on like a back street
00:16:19.680 unassociated with me but uh but i'm riding my my bike
00:16:24.520 bike along uh taking like these circuitous back streets and and as i'm riding this coyote
00:16:33.860 darts out of the woods like runs over sees me uh runs across the street again and then like
00:16:41.740 zigzags around me back where it was go where it was going that bit that is incredibly authentic
00:16:47.920 to like like anyone who's like doing anything like slightly shady shady uh at 3 a.m at night
00:16:55.660 in a major metro area in north north america and is very authentic authentic but this focus on like
00:17:03.580 symbolism and like that scene was like this powerful moment between these characters that
00:17:08.840 focused on symbolism as much as michael mann is like this tactical gear focused person he has this
00:17:16.200 incredible narrative and symbolic focus so so that would almost the odinic element we're debating it
00:17:25.620 but that's certainly something that he would include um for you beers at home heat if you
00:17:33.040 have been seated is one of the most unique hollywood films in terms of like slot structuring
00:17:39.520 and and um story structure because it doesn't follow a three-act hollywood film structure
00:17:46.080 it follows a five-act shakespearean structure like a structure the same way that hamlet or
00:17:52.680 mcbeth would be structure structure make that actually is kind of closer to is a five-act
00:17:57.960 structure but it kind of it has a lot of elements of that would become a three-act structure but
00:18:02.640 That's like structured the same way Titus Andronicus would be structured or any of these Shakespeare stories where you have these massive ensemble cast, Romeo and Juliet would be in the other one.
00:18:15.820 And you have these massive ensemble cast, this like operatic story that's playing out, this core drama between like the core characters.
00:18:25.520 but then instead of like like the way a three-act structure works is like
00:18:31.860 like michael bay is the master of this if it's building action this building action this building
00:18:37.180 action this building action until like you get to the very end of the film and there's this massive
00:18:44.020 action sequence this final drama all the elements come together you know the character who was like
00:18:50.260 from the start of the film who's like kind of irrelevant did something in the second act and
00:18:54.420 third act they come back and they wind up being very important all these all this power of teamwork
00:18:59.980 stuff all these elements come together they're very important the villain is defeated and then
00:19:05.080 you have like five ten minutes left of the film you know optimus prime gives gives a speech calling
00:19:10.740 to the all all their autobots that earth earth is worth defending and whatnot and then you know
00:19:17.420 uh shia labeouf kisses kisses the girl um and then yeah we've all seen this a hundred times
00:19:25.760 yeah yeah everyone's seen this it's like formulaic as can be and that's partly why i
00:19:34.060 wanted to dig down into it so that you know like this is all these elements are like conscious
00:19:39.700 this isn't just how a story's told this is a conscious like structure and heat does not follow
00:19:45.300 that at all uh the the central action of heat happens in the exact middle of the film uh the
00:19:54.660 major bank ice in which like la is ripped apart by gunfire uh uh the the sound effect that's been
00:20:02.520 commented on a million times that that they actually capture the sound of the blanks echoing
00:20:08.020 off the the skyscrapers of la as they're recording and that's what's in the film that's why the gunfire
00:20:14.100 sounds like nothing else like this operatic explosive explosive moment like one of the most
00:20:21.760 impressive and terrifying scenes you've ever seen seen the centerpiece of the film
00:20:27.320 and that's exactly at the middle point of the film you still have like
00:20:32.020 an hour and 15 minutes an hour and a half a half left after that it's like well what's in there
00:20:39.980 what's it what's in there are almost more impactful and intriguing than the heist itself
00:20:46.920 right like the relationship between men um the egress strategies the the the end game right it's
00:20:55.740 uh to make a chess metaphor right like the most number of pieces are on are on the board at the
00:21:01.680 beginning the most decisive action is in the middle but the end game is often uh despite
00:21:07.760 there only being sometimes you know five or six pieces on the board the end game is the by far
00:21:13.400 the most important part of a chess match right and it's the same in heat yes that's exactly
00:21:19.180 that's a perfect metaphor i would not have come up with that myself that's as wonderful but yes
00:21:25.420 it's this um this tragedy and sense sensibility of like these characters we've seen them at their
00:21:33.400 most extreme and now we're going to see them strip down to like their bare core core throughout the
00:21:40.200 latter half of it and you see this rising action and this falling action that reveals the true core
00:21:46.940 of the characters and what they really value and what's most essential to them and who they really
00:21:53.940 really are and like it it works in heat and it works in shakespeare because the heat he has
00:22:03.820 shakespeare writes tragedies and heat has if it's not a tragedy it certainly has a tragedy
00:22:10.660 and sensibility and we'll get into spoilers later on in the the podcast but it has this
00:22:17.240 wonderful shakespearean quality to it that you see in like no films and i'd say this is
00:22:24.380 this is why um this is why this film like probably of all the films of the 90s 90s despite the 90s
00:22:34.020 being like an amazing decade for phil will like stand out even amongst that that in like the scale
00:22:40.480 of history um you know hundreds of years from now people will be watching heat and still puzzling
00:22:46.180 over over neil macaulay and vincent hannah and the and the what ifs and the and the american
00:22:55.640 tragedy of it there's there's so many wonderful noir elements in this they're like downplayed as
00:23:02.440 can be but are played 100 straight straight and it like despite it being like having all the sheen
00:23:10.640 of like modernity and and like realism and like this tactical logic it becomes like
00:23:17.160 maybe one of the top five american noir stories ever told
00:23:22.220 and it's inspiring in a way not just to gun tubers but to like the actual criminals because he
00:23:30.220 is the harbinger of an era of an increasing level of violence on the world's streets
00:23:35.660 Not just in like the US and Europe with, you know, highly organized cartel terror or Islamic terror, but also in East Asia. 0.79
00:23:45.440 If you mind me going on a minor tangent, there's an interesting story from just before the era of heat in the 1980s, where Mainlander Chinese gangsters start infiltrating the Hong Kong gang scene. 0.61
00:24:00.340 And before Mainlanders start showing up, Hong Kong is really not that violent. There are local triad gangsters, and these are tough guys, but they don't pull out weapons. They're not armed in the sense that they carry firearms regularly, right? 0.62
00:24:17.380 because Hong Kong, as part of the British Empire, is a gun control zone.
00:24:21.860 Only the police really have weapons.
00:24:24.360 But when mainlanders start showing up with Chinese copies of Tokarev 7.62mm pistols, 0.95
00:24:31.280 it begins an orgy of violence on Hong Kong streets
00:24:34.020 where small groups of gangsters outshoot even the Hong Kong SWAT team.
00:24:40.940 They end up killing several police officers, making their escape to the mainland,
00:24:44.500 and then coming back again a couple years later to rob jewelry stores.
00:24:48.860 And this is happening all over the world in this era,
00:24:51.240 where civilians get access to increasing levels of firepower.
00:24:54.880 And we wouldn't consider a 7.62 pistol to really be a lot of firepower today.
00:25:00.580 But back then, this was like shooting through cover
00:25:04.600 and shooting through the limited body armor of the day.
00:25:09.520 And so I found that to be an interesting parallel,
00:25:11.800 Because that era, the 80s and 90s, is when these well-organized groups of civilians realize that they do have an edge and have a niche where their level of organization and firepower can achieve meaningful tactical results against police forces that are not expecting it at all.
00:25:28.740 yeah so obviously the the one that's the event for you listeners at home who
00:25:38.020 who aren't buried in cheat lore like uh like me and every gun tuber and ipo zamata uh
00:25:48.120 the famous event that's associated with heat of um life imitating art is the north hollywood
00:25:57.820 shootout where where a shootout very much like the central shootout heat occurs occurs where
00:26:05.500 the these two robbers fire thousands of rounds of ammunition and manage to like have firepower
00:26:13.660 dominance over the entire lapd with with helicopters inbound and like swat teams to
00:26:21.000 sent me on them for like 45 minutes an hour uh someone out there will have uh will have the exact
00:26:29.420 timetable memorized that this is such a famous famous event and there are tons of cops and just
00:26:35.660 like tactical people who who can tell you right now is 42 minutes and so many seconds or however
00:26:42.140 long long it was this has been the subject of like dozens of documentaries but uh this dynamic um
00:26:48.860 you see play out um canada um most people don't wouldn't think of this but uh canada
00:26:56.900 throughout like the 2000s and 2010s has this recurring um uh revenge of the mad trapper
00:27:05.700 style return of um these lone madmen on the prairies or the east coast or um actually the
00:27:12.660 canadian parliament was stormed by lone gunman uh sometime in the 2010s i can't quite remember when
00:27:19.480 it was a blink and you miss a type of event he was islamic so no one no one wanted to dwell on
00:27:25.060 it too long you're talking about like the 2014 thing where um one of the uh soldiers on ceremonial 0.59
00:27:31.780 sentry duty gets shot yes uh the soldier on ceremonial sentry duty got shot but the gunman
00:27:38.820 then stormed the parliament building and actually had like a shootout with the uh the sergeant at
00:27:45.780 arms of the canadian parliament uh that it was actually although dramatic in a way that like
00:27:53.720 could be from a movie that was actually the most senior person in like the canadian parliamentary
00:27:58.840 security service who actually has like a a big uniform and like a ceremonial title having a
00:28:05.660 shootout with a sidearm with a um with a an armed intruder who had already cut down a ceremonial
00:28:14.060 guardsman but uh but you also had the mayor thorpe tragedy where four rcmp officers were cut down you
00:28:22.540 also had the the moncton shooting where were several police officers were cut down i believe
00:28:30.100 us three don't have that in front of you right now and you have uh this echoes throughout american
00:28:39.880 society in love in some ways there were um their work criminals and um fanatics who uh
00:28:50.100 went on shooting rampages against police in the 2010s uh related to black lives matter
00:28:56.620 but um those remember uh the dc sniper yes the dc sniper this is it uh those two guys shut down
00:29:06.080 the entire imperial capital for a month so the dc sniper is the subject of a case study in um
00:29:13.800 in john west fry the brain the art of urban girl sniping which um is up on archive like as
00:29:21.800 last time i checked you could get like the full version of this like of this book by an
00:29:29.020 ex-special forces guy breaking down guerrilla sniper warfare play free on archive and pdf
00:29:35.020 pdf but it um like he did an entire breakdown of the sniper campaign and said and basically
00:29:44.320 made the argument that something like this or campaigns like this are the future of guerrilla
00:29:50.080 warfare because of the effect it had. And he placed it up there with the South Armas sniper
00:29:55.560 campaign or the sniper campaigns in Baghdad around the same time. I would have to say that
00:30:03.580 this had a sweet spot in like the late 90s and 2000s, where a small team of well-equipped
00:30:10.500 civilians with semi-automatic rifles and optics could do this and largely get away with it for a
00:30:16.460 But these days, the technology available to the surveillance state at triangulating and locating these sorts of incidents and then responding with overwhelming force and precision has gotten to the level where you need a much more sophisticated actor to get away with it.
00:30:32.360 You need to neutralize all of the systems that would be used to track you. You would need to jam the sensors and the UAVs that the police would deploy to follow you.
00:30:45.560 it would probably take a force funded uh by a state actor these days like if two guys tried
00:30:53.920 to replicate the dc sniper campaign today i would be willing that they would catch them within two
00:30:58.220 to three days they would not be able to rampage around washington dc for a month uh i i disagree
00:31:06.300 that um basically all the countermeasures that like a sophisticated actor would use to avoid it
00:31:14.240 is like like none of those countermeasures are actually very expensive like if you gave like a
00:31:22.300 a reasonably intelligent psychopath like a checklist like he could like i'm convinced
00:31:29.900 that any like reasonable intelligent person could neutralize almost all all those like if they just
00:31:36.800 had like a good cheat sheet of how how to do it um this is i i'm writing a piece right now
00:31:43.500 run an electronic warfare attack on the cctv apparatus right you need to shut down all the
00:31:50.440 cameras in the entire area no no no you don't because because basically what you have to do
00:31:57.720 is you have to infiltrate and you have to exfiltrate because as long as you uh a facial
00:32:04.020 recognition technology isn't that great like uh like cctv cameras are like limited to about 70
00:32:11.440 thousand people they can differentiate between before they start getting lots of false positives
00:32:16.660 positives which if you're wearing masks that increasing your vehicle not your face
00:32:21.460 and the dc snipers were going around in their suv the whole time yeah but part of the infiltration
00:32:29.260 and exfiltration would be be staging in relation to the vehicle or switching to a like secondary
00:32:35.700 disposable disposable vehicle so like uh you stage from a car outside the city you using a like
00:32:44.280 personal e-bike or scooter or bicycle on your way in or like it's winter now cross-country skis or
00:32:51.580 something something of a sort you carry out the the operation then you exfiltrate and you do
00:32:57.920 do a
00:32:59.880 like circuitous non-obvious
00:33:02.440 route so they can't just like track you
00:33:04.540 you step one, step two
00:33:06.520 step three, step four by the CCTV
00:33:08.340 cameras, you dispose
00:33:10.520 of evidence and
00:33:11.940 that doesn't, I break it
00:33:14.160 I'm going to break all this down in my
00:33:16.440 analysis of the Luigi Mangione
00:33:18.720 assassination which might be
00:33:20.300 out by the time you guys listen to this
00:33:22.420 podcast or might be like a few
00:33:24.360 days off
00:33:26.120 but looking forward to it but the when you contrast the the expense and complexity of the
00:33:35.460 of the vast surveillance apparatus and how much effort goes into maintaining it versus like um
00:33:41.640 the minutes of individual effort or like the hours of just like physically traveling that it takes to
00:33:50.780 like neutralize them so like uh so like an entire like stingray uh uh a surveillance system to like
00:34:01.220 be intersecting everyone's to be peeing everyone's cell phones and like keeping track of the
00:34:07.660 individual identifiers of everyone's cell phones is defeated by like a 25 faraday bag
00:34:13.340 it requires discipline like it requires forethought and and calculation and like
00:34:20.440 knowledge of how you do it and like an intuitive understanding of like how aggressively
00:34:27.500 informationally can be exploited the thing is that's free and even if you add up the hours
00:34:35.120 it takes to understand it really if someone presents it to you like properly it only takes
00:34:40.000 a few hours to like really get it into your head if you're an intelligent person and this is
00:34:45.360 basically my art argument in the piece which now should actually head in is that that fundamentally
00:34:54.940 the the panopticon surveillance apparatus is like a losing losing proposition it's because it's
00:35:03.080 fundamentally defensive and and requires requires to be secure every everywhere at the same time
00:35:12.940 that it can be be over that that to have it at a level of sophistication that a skilled actor or
00:35:22.680 even a moderately skilled actor couldn't like short it out or like get around around it like
00:35:29.120 fairly tribly with the right right sort of discipline everywhere like you're looking at
00:35:36.720 a complete explosion in cost and this is the and even with things like ai or um predictive policing
00:35:46.480 fundamentally those are limited by just how much information actually leaks and the amount of
00:35:53.780 discipline it takes to get to what is essentially a zero or like near zero information leak
00:36:00.820 operational tempo is like not extreme i will agree with you that it is possible for an extremely
00:36:09.440 intelligent and extremely conscientious actor to circumvent the system given sufficient
00:36:14.680 familiarity but the people who are conducting these attacks are usually much higher impulsivity
00:36:19.880 guys um that don't do these things the most conscientious and most intelligent people with
00:36:25.860 a specific goal in mind whether that's monetary gain or something political or ideological they
00:36:31.140 realize that carrying out a mass shooting in public is not the best way to achieve their goal
00:36:35.180 and they will go about their goal in a more sophisticated manner
00:36:39.140 they will manipulate other actors into committing violent acts for them right like they will
00:36:44.880 achieve achieve power within a you know corporate or security apparatus and then use it against 1.00
00:36:52.640 them the people who are actually committing these public acts of violence are almost always morons 1.00
00:36:57.880 this is true however there's a level of there's a level of moron where um you're still intelligent 0.99
00:37:06.820 enough to like get the cheat sheet version of it so like uh the luigi was like most mass shooters 0.86
00:37:13.540 who like write a manifesto are of like the level of intelligence that they could probably implement
00:37:20.420 like 80 to 90 percent of what i'm talking about like fairly fairly easily and like largely cost
00:37:29.640 free if like they had it presented to them in such a way that's like like don't that they don't have
00:37:36.800 assemble their own methodology so like it's very it's very hard to be to like individually invent
00:37:44.460 all these methods and like anticipate all these like obscure surveillance techniques
00:37:50.300 but once someone like actually prepares it and presents it as like a standard methodology
00:37:57.040 like it's infinitely replicable like uh and there are lots of examples of things like this in
00:38:03.840 history where we're like uh so historically we just read the caesar's gallic wars wars
00:38:12.400 in the anarcho-nofcom book club uh historically uh armies were consistently being surprised or
00:38:21.180 caught unaware by like armies and forces who just show up at random moments or like just attack at
00:38:29.080 like moments they wouldn't expect so like they go out to forage or they go out to meet meet an
00:38:35.060 emissary and they attack at that exact moment and no one's expecting it and no one's prepared for it
00:38:39.720 for it and they get overwhelmed and overrun despite having the entire army standing to
00:38:44.960 to and ready for this this because they didn't have a protocol place and basically 0.61
00:38:52.780 outside of like the egregious third world like that largely wouldn't happen now because then 0.98
00:39:00.820 the over like thousands of years it's been formalized that no there are protocols for 0.99
00:39:07.200 this whenever you do this you do this whenever you do this you do that you have a contingency
00:39:11.660 plan for this or that when you're in close contact with the enemy that that basically
00:39:16.880 you're maintaining a level of preparedness at all times that like well okay so you're having like
00:39:23.660 right you're not having like hours where there's no one on watch for example right okay so there
00:39:30.360 are egregious instances like that but in modern and post-modern warfare right the idea of having
00:39:37.580 a reconnaissance or armored cavalry screen in front of your main body to locate and fix the
00:39:44.440 enemy for your main body to maneuver around that's that's been a part of doctrine you know
00:39:49.080 for a century but the the armored cavalry screen itself is still expected to get into a chaotic
00:39:55.420 meeting engagement with the enemy um and a lot of times this means just attacking recklessly the
00:40:00.900 first enemy uh recon unit you run into in order to gain to brush past them and gain that level of
00:40:06.940 visibility on the main body and you see a bit of this in ukraine where it's not like world war ii
00:40:13.560 where you have like a heavy tank destroyer that posts up on a hill and has great visibility of
00:40:18.040 miles around so they can engage at two kilometers away. What you see are like, you know, tanks and
00:40:22.820 IFVs engaging at 30 meters because they only notice each other at 30 meters because they are
00:40:28.360 taking the most circuitous like visibility covering approach possible. And so I'm sure you've seen
00:40:37.260 these videos of like T-90s and Bradleys just blazing away at each other at a range where
00:40:41.720 the tank commander could conceivably pop open the hatch and hit the opposing vehicle as a thrown
00:40:46.480 football right like these sorts of media no i i remember seeing a video of like a lone tank
00:40:54.900 like like not just within like a hundred meters or so of another tank but then within a hundred
00:41:03.160 meters or so of like two or three other tanks and there's a uav operator observing this like
00:41:08.800 radioing to them what's going on and the uav operator has just spotted but you're talking
00:41:14.200 about the russian t-80 that engages the column of ukrainian imvs and martyrs yeah yeah and this
00:41:21.380 this russian is just uh just screaming because he thinks he's like watching this guy about to die
00:41:27.940 and then like because it's so unpredictable because they didn't see him either 0.66
00:41:32.380 it still happens and inevitably it's always some buriak who credits like war thunder for his like
00:41:39.600 irl afv skills the war thunder you're changing the face of war
00:41:47.540 uh changing modern intelligence and changing modern armor combat but uh getting back to
00:41:57.800 heat the film we are here to discuss right gus uh the the techniques employed by the
00:42:07.840 by the robbers in the film so like a they're robbing a bank without mass that's a big gap
00:42:13.820 between the 90s and today where in like the 90s you could basically you could basically assume
00:42:21.220 that like once you were out of the bank itself like there aren't cameras on you everywhere
00:42:25.980 because cameras are expensive in the 90s 90s and there's like an intense limit to their quality
00:42:32.900 they're like you're on the street there's no live feed back to some central command center
00:42:37.480 yeah um so they take their math off the second they're out of the bank because they the big
00:42:43.240 threat there is that they'll seem conspicuous and like an unmasked guy isn't conspicuous
00:42:48.940 because that's different but a lot of the techniques they employ are like very
00:42:54.220 in 10 years so one of the ones that i was like impressed by is uh neil mccauley he's being
00:43:03.300 this occurs right after the diner sequence it's a bliss and you blink and you miss a thing uh this
00:43:10.060 is where the uh this is where the in uh intermission is if you want to like have an intermission when
00:43:18.380 you're screening this with friends that everyone can get snacks and stuff this is the perfect scene
00:43:22.020 this is what i did during the the our screening is immediately after that scene uh vincent hannah
00:43:29.500 goes back to to the office and then a a cop comes in and he says we lost them what do you mean you
00:43:37.360 lost them uh vincent we lost them they they slipped our tail phil he says what i but i was
00:43:45.140 having coffee with him 10 minutes ago. And in synchronicity, Macaulay's entire crew
00:43:53.580 slipped their tails and they go into, well, where's Macaulay? And what Macaulay did was he
00:44:03.200 drove his car into airport long-term parking, like right at the airport because LAPD can't
00:44:11.620 overfly it and then like he booked it through the airport as if he was missing a flight
00:44:16.840 hop a cab it was like like out of their downtown la before they could like like follow him through
00:44:25.200 the airport and you might think modern days well they have all these networked uh security cameras
00:44:31.340 there there and they have like an identifying number on the cab and they have cameras in the
00:44:36.380 cab like they can follow you through that establish a perimeter like on the fly while this is happening
00:44:42.680 right they'd be able to reroute security teams through the airport once that becomes a possibility
00:44:47.640 where the initial containment perimeter is breached no he's just under surveillance at this
00:44:52.880 point he's not a fugitive all right i'm saying like today like if he was a fugitive this is
00:44:58.200 something that could easily be done but just him under surveillance hour today this would work
00:45:04.220 because even if they like managed to get to his um even if they managed to get to the security
00:45:12.760 system and follow him and get the cab number by the time they've done all that he's out of the
00:45:18.380 cab and he's like going through zigzag formations down like um la downtown like alleys and stuff
00:45:26.740 and like going through lethal residential neighborhoods and then like gets another cab
00:45:30.900 and then, like, goes through a mall and then gets another cab that basically the amount of manpower you'd need to surveil this one guy with, like, this is, you know, airport long-term Harkin plus a cab plus another cab.
00:45:52.460 You know, this is this cost him like one hundred, two hundred bucks in modern dollars.
00:45:58.840 And you've increased the amount of surveillance, real time emergency level, like on the fly surveillance.
00:46:07.160 By an exponential amount. Right.
00:46:09.420 So if you were like a terrorist who just pulled off like a bombing, but if you are just merely a suspected criminal under surveillance, those resources just don't exist.
00:46:19.680 yeah so if you're an active fugitive like uh you have to be like you'd have to be like booking it
00:46:28.240 like diving over fences and stuff and like and like maybe you get a you get a cat at some point
00:46:37.440 where you think you're like 10-15 minutes ahead of them yeah be out of that cat within like within
00:46:43.840 like 10 to 20 minutes because as soon as because there's a very good chance they're gonna like
00:46:49.980 zero in on that cab and they would like be able to pull over that cab unless you're like already
00:46:55.220 out of there moving again like if you're actually on the run run and they like head you yeah it'd
00:47:02.380 be an entirely different different game like if they're that close behind you but just for
00:47:09.220 surveillance purposes this would work today and there's a lot of comparable stuff that you see
00:47:14.940 them employ where it's like there's like those old school ops techniques and those ways of like
00:47:20.760 breaking surveillance um uh in a lot of cities in like the north so like frano montreal
00:47:28.200 nyc boston boston chicago like um in the downtown core of cities they have like these tunnel
00:47:37.360 networks between office buildings and and shopping centers because it gets too cold to go outside
00:47:44.260 side during the day or like you don't want to go out in minus 30 if you're like a wealthy office
00:47:52.700 person on your lunch break and those are hooked up to um those are hooked up to like like subway
00:48:00.540 stations train stations whatnot like you can you can hop up your cap go through this go to the
00:48:07.920 subway go to another subway station on these networks networks run across the network and
00:48:16.200 it's like yeah they'll see what you're doing if they manage to like pull the cctv footage after
00:48:23.020 which is like yes it's all in a centralized um digital location but they're gonna do that within
00:48:28.700 like the 20 minutes that you're like breaking the surveillance chain and then you like and then like
00:48:35.200 you get up on the street or you get in the subway and like go to another stop and then
00:48:40.360 redirect your leafy neighborhood and you've broken the surveillance so the leafy neighborhood is no
00:48:46.860 comfort right because you're familiar with like the ring camera that like people buy to
00:48:52.340 to surveil like porch pirates well a lot of major cities have protocols where if there is an active
00:48:59.320 chase going on the footage from like random suburban you know housewives ring cameras can
00:49:06.340 be uh fed to a central processing hub in real time to observe someone's progress as they're
00:49:13.180 running through you know some leafy green suburban neighborhood this is no comfort
00:49:16.980 and these things these ring cameras are ubiquitous link that to me because i would assume that most
00:49:28.320 that um basically most of us for the purpose of identification are not are not going to be
00:49:37.580 strong enough to like pick a guy up from the other side of the street like you're not going
00:49:42.260 to be able to do like facial recognition or anything of the sort from the other side of the
00:49:46.060 street it's actually they're pointed down at the porch porch like the other side of the street you
00:49:54.760 might it not might not be able to pick out your face but if it sees someone you know wearing your
00:49:59.480 color of coat with your build run through the neighborhood it will tip off an act of police
00:50:04.920 pursuit uh i i'm deeply suspicious of that and you gotta remember that that all these is like
00:50:16.400 not automatic like you still largely have a person at the office going through the footage
00:50:23.360 and like manually tracking it that was true as as recent as like five years ago but like
00:50:28.740 there's a reason why like palantir is valued at what it is because like security focused ai
00:50:34.620 companies are working on making this a reality yeah they're working on it but to what extent
00:50:41.120 are they just bilking money from the from the government and to what extent does it actually
00:50:46.020 work because i'm i've seen the false positive numbers that they get and it's very very easy 0.99
00:50:54.500 to overstate this like like dumb black people get away with crime all the time all right but the 0.98
00:51:00.820 amount of police resources focused on them are comparatively minimal for you know low-end street 1.00
00:51:07.640 crime if you are a someone who has done what neil macaulay has done right and shot 20 cops in la
00:51:13.820 all of the resources of the law will be focused on you so like my contention is if luigi maggione
00:51:22.700 had done had done this he would have probably gone away with it because the way he was tracked
00:51:29.480 is basically he went directly from his hotel to the crime scene and directly from the crime scene
00:51:36.480 to the George Washington Bridge bus terminal and that's how he they managed to get him to Altoona
00:51:42.840 where um McDonald's used its facial recognition software on a population of like fewer than a
00:51:48.580 hundred thousand and like picked him out out if yeah i thought i saw like a take that if he had
00:51:56.820 bounced around manhattan for a while like went to brooklyn or something or queens and then got out
00:52:02.680 he might and maybe wore like a latex mask or something to throw off the initial facial
00:52:08.160 recognition he might have been able to to book it for another week or two the initial facial
00:52:14.240 recognition my impression is even that didn't get him because the thing is they have all this
00:52:20.360 facial recognition right and they do not get get luigi magione's name out to the public
00:52:30.180 at any any point in that five-day search like if they had him down to a name and let's say he
00:52:36.080 killed another ceo like that's a lawsuit immediately like that'll destroy careers if they
00:52:41.940 if it comes out they had his identity and he killed killed again and killed like a multi-millionaire
00:52:48.940 like that's that scandal of the century if they had gotten him like like they had his face if
00:52:56.040 they'd taken his face and like railed to match it to a social media profile they would have they
00:53:02.120 would have released it the thing is they they didn't and that tells me that that basically the
00:53:10.180 70,000 figure
00:53:12.760 of what the
00:53:14.560 AI can tell, tell the difference
00:53:16.480 between is basically
00:53:17.880 accurate and if he have like
00:53:20.560 so let's
00:53:22.740 say he
00:53:23.600 going to, he repeats this
00:53:26.520 process on both sides of it, leaving the
00:53:28.580 crime scene
00:53:29.320 he
00:53:30.800 in 7eBike he uses
00:53:34.460 a proper like anonymous
00:53:36.280 regular bicycle
00:53:37.240 bikes out to Queens
00:53:39.640 bikes out to brooklyn bounces around like through those leafy neighborhoods neighborhoods gets a
00:53:48.740 subway to queen gets a cab from queens to like up to like the the bronx gets it bounce around the
00:53:58.100 bronx burns eight hours in like a burns eight hours like a mom and pop uh a cafe that like
00:54:09.620 doesn't have a network camera basically at that point the set of people you have to search through
00:54:17.840 through who have like gone through the new york metro area because that's like a massive circle
00:54:22.540 around the initial crime scene is 10 million plus people people and he wore a mask from
00:54:29.420 most of it so like the amount of differentiation it can do of just his eyebrows are like maybe a few
00:54:36.500 few thousand at that point he'd probably be out he'd almost certainly be out he'd be cutting down
00:54:43.360 his chance of being caught by like 99 like there's still a chance that they'd that like the most
00:54:51.400 astute people would get him or like he he breaks discipline in like in like something with how he
00:55:00.020 extracts via the bus station like the bus station is a major choke point but but doing all that
00:55:06.720 like um surveillance isn't surveillance and evidence isn't like a um yes no it's a it's a
00:55:18.140 series of cascading failures like it's like it's like hygiene in a surgery like yes right like um
00:55:25.260 I get what you're trying to say here. There is a level of action that you can take to increase your probability of getting over those first few most critical hurdles until you're not completely scot-free, but the amount of effort necessary to set up a perimeter is prohibitive, even for the NYPD.
00:55:44.040 like um if you're performing surgery and you wash your and you like fail to wash your hands
00:55:51.080 that guy's getting infected but you wash your hands you doesn't disinfect you wear a surgical
00:55:56.380 mask you spray down with disinfectant you give them antibiotics at the end of it yeah there's
00:56:02.860 still a chance that like a stray particle of like necrotizing fasciitis will get in it and like
00:56:07.980 turn the guy into soup but like but like the odds of like this cascading
00:56:15.720 gaining failure happening in spite of all these intercessions like um the difference in risk
00:56:22.000 between like an unsanitized surgery versus like a modern sanitized surgical surgical operating
00:56:29.140 theater is like miles and miles apart and the biggest impact things like the biggest impact
00:56:37.240 things that immediately like cut the odds of a catastrophic infection down by like 40 50 percent
00:56:45.020 is like washing your your hands like sure you like we would not accept just like oh i washed
00:56:52.820 my hands now i'm gonna like 80 of the gains was like 20 of the effort yeah so like the difference
00:57:00.200 between like like a battlefield surgery on like a ship in like 1812 versus like a modern theater
00:57:09.520 surgery like like you die of an infection in both settings but like the slightest intervention
00:57:16.240 but like people did survive those battlefield surgeries in 1812 and and the odds of like a
00:57:24.060 catastrophic infection or catastrophic failure with the minorist interventions decrease it
00:57:30.200 radically remember the uh homicide clearance rates total in the u.s have been going down for
00:57:38.220 like 50 years yes here's like it's true but the majority of homicides committed the police
00:57:45.960 genuinely don't care about and you know what demographic we're talking about yeah i i'm
00:57:52.820 which i always find offensive because it's like okay even if you don't care about the victim like
00:57:59.440 screw them that's still like a violent thug out on the street like you should care that there's
00:58:04.060 enough like you think oh it's a dead thug i'm glad he's dead you should think yes but there's 1.00
00:58:09.020 another thug out there that you can also destroy the life of like this isn't that assumes that the
00:58:16.060 police trust the district prosecutor to destroy the life of the second thug who is often a minor
00:58:21.640 right right but homicide homicide even if they like the district prosecutor tries to like
00:58:32.500 whittle it down to like 13 years that's still 13 years of a murderer who's not on the street
00:58:38.200 that seems very very worth it especially since apparently it's easing with all this
00:58:43.740 normal like homicide you might expect the community to collaborate with the police in
00:58:50.600 tracking down the killer right when you get witness testimony you can even if the witness
00:58:55.720 testimony memory is not accurate which it usually isn't you can usually trust them to make a good
00:59:00.880 face effort to help them help uh you the policeman uh the detective catch whoever did the killing
00:59:07.460 with a certain type of demographic and neighborhood in in the united states you often get massive
00:59:14.740 stonewalling and no help whatsoever from the local community yeah but in that scenario you
00:59:21.420 you it is very difficult to yeah but that doesn't matter for any of these
00:59:27.800 that doesn't matter for any of these high level crimes though because like
00:59:32.020 there isn't a community to report on neil mcculley there isn't a community to report on neil mcculley
00:59:40.000 stuff you know he's operating across such a vast theater of crime um uh the real life neil macaulay
00:59:47.480 actually moved to chicago cago because he thought it would be a better setting for his crime like
00:59:55.200 he was completely divorced from the that community this is the guy in the 60s right i mean the real
01:00:00.740 one died at the scene of the crime right like the the detective uh adamson he literally just
01:00:06.400 pursued macaulay through a through a neighborhood then shot him in the back six times and it was
01:00:11.820 over yes exactly no it's uh like like and my impression is if you do my impression having like
01:00:24.360 assess this blank was is if you do like a lot of this basic hygiene stuff and you like maintain
01:00:31.280 the proper electronic missions
01:00:33.040 discipline, proper
01:00:35.280 infiltration and extraction.
01:00:38.760 You
01:00:39.400 don't
01:00:41.460 like brag about the crime.
01:00:43.860 Crime, you
01:00:44.820 maintain like a proper discipline
01:00:47.200 of like your spending so that you aren't using
01:00:49.300 your credit card. You know, the crimes
01:00:51.340 and like even
01:00:52.800 really insane amount of
01:00:55.320 resources being brought against you,
01:00:57.700 it's
01:00:59.360 still going to be like very
01:01:01.220 difficult when they track you down just doing like to prevent that insane amount of resources
01:01:07.840 from being brought against you by linking yourself from the victim right like i mean
01:01:13.880 it's a cliche but the number one defense it really is hiding the body yeah exactly exactly
01:01:21.280 but uh let's say like i don't know you were assassinating a major world world figure and
01:01:26.780 they're really going to bring infinite resources down on you they're really going to like bring
01:01:30.600 the guy in from interpol who's the best in this scenario it is better if you're dealing with a
01:01:36.680 major world leader who undoubtedly has many enemies it is a better use of your own resources 0.99
01:01:41.780 to radicalize some idiot to pull the trigger rather than doing it yourself oh we saw how that 0.99
01:01:47.760 worked with with uh the trump assassin the we also saw what happened this is true but 1.00
01:01:54.920 but random idiots tend to have like a very random track record 1.00
01:02:01.480 the process is repeatable there is an infinite source of random idiots i do not doubt that 1.00
01:02:11.060 someone else will attempt to make a life an attempt on the life of the of president trump 0.99
01:02:15.780 within the next four years it's gonna happen yeah yeah yeah yo adolf hitler got like 44
01:02:23.280 assassination temps in his lifetime like some insane number yeah and many of them by senior
01:02:28.120 ranking officers of the of the german military and it's uh it's a miracle that some of the
01:02:33.400 bomb plots didn't work yeah naturally and actually casts casts a question on the quality of
01:02:41.200 russian russian military education that all these noble prussian officers
01:02:46.000 couldn't carry out uh in assassination it'd be fair none of the training that they're getting
01:02:51.460 is dealing with like assassinating your boss right like so the training is an operational
01:02:56.220 level maneuver this is true but like there are cross applicable skills there like planning
01:03:06.680 discipline double checking uh this is if you read um uh admiral william h mcraven's um original
01:03:17.720 book when he was a captain uh spec ops the theory of special operations uh one of the major major
01:03:24.420 uh points that he hammers home again and again is rehearsal that um they're the most successful
01:03:32.700 special operations in history they did a like a full dress rehearsal of right they build a set
01:03:38.620 that replicates like the area that they're going to shoot in and whatever right but like
01:03:42.340 if you're trying to assassinate your boss you really can't do these things uh because a
01:03:47.620 um you obviously you obviously have to pull off your entire plot clandestinely and b you have a
01:03:55.380 full-time job as a member of a wartime military you don't have time to rehearse that away from
01:04:00.280 your uh command structure and if you do take like a leave of absence for two weeks people are going
01:04:05.240 to start asking questions yes but you can but you can like double double checking war game like
01:04:14.480 if this happens what about this this happens what about this and like go to the list of things that
01:04:19.140 that can go wrong like um the number of assassination plots have failed because they
01:04:25.140 didn't test the detonators like they didn't like they didn't test the mechanism for like setting
01:04:30.860 off the bomb is like truly insane because it's just like checking that like a switch closes or
01:04:37.140 checking that like or like manufacturing like two or three of like a detonation mechanism and
01:04:45.280 like setting off like the tiniest little explosion that you know that you know that yes those
01:04:51.520 detonators are not faulty like like uh basic like quality assurance that like that like teenagers
01:05:02.300 on assembly lines like like making random construction parts do like a lot of people
01:05:09.820 failed failed to do for like their the operations that they gambled their lives on
01:05:17.060 the other thing that uh hitler specifically gets away with is that he changes his timetable very
01:05:24.060 often and so often he's just not there when um when the assassins are planning to go through
01:05:29.520 their plot right like a bunch of like polish resistant fighters try to blow him up uh when 0.66
01:05:34.140 he's parading through occupied warsaw and then he just diverts at the last minute and never goes
01:05:37.580 over the bomb right like again with like another bombing attempt um i think in 1940 or so but
01:05:44.760 hitler just never shows up to an event where he's scheduled to speak
01:05:47.680 this you kids at home remain unpredictable change your schedule redirect at the last moment just
01:05:56.020 because bring it a zig when they expect you to say but uh bring it back to keith the film we are
01:06:05.640 discussing discussing uh which elements is like jump out at you this time you saw it
01:06:13.900 i would i would have to say that the number one thing that i am impressed with with a movie maker
01:06:23.020 is that when I think that the director is smarter than I am,
01:06:25.760 when there are things that are planted
01:06:28.240 that you will only notice on a third or fourth watching,
01:06:32.180 and I think this is like my third or so,
01:06:33.480 I probably have not seen Heat as many times as you have,
01:06:37.240 but it's all those elements of careful preparation and planning
01:06:40.840 that do impress me,
01:06:42.320 even more so than the tactical proficiency,
01:06:45.280 the shootings, the reloads, the fire and maneuver.
01:06:49.000 It's the idea that these people
01:06:50.640 are convincingly intelligent people
01:06:53.740 playing the game.
01:06:58.800 Yeah, the...
01:07:00.980 There are all these little parables
01:07:03.120 that are buried in heat
01:07:05.260 that
01:07:06.340 you wouldn't even catch
01:07:09.500 the first time you watch it.
01:07:11.600 So, um...
01:07:13.080 They do have to make
01:07:15.800 a couple of exceptions, right?
01:07:17.160 Someone like Macaulay would not hire
01:07:19.280 wangrow in the first place without firmly vetting this man uh but um there was especially like
01:07:27.840 error in order for there to be a plot in the first place yeah exactly no and you can imagine
01:07:35.120 it's actually now cleared up like who brought wangrow in whether it was um
01:07:41.360 uh a slick michael who he's working working with or whether it was like treo brought him
01:07:50.340 brought him or whether it was killer right but i'm saying as the lead man and ultimately does
01:07:58.120 have final judgment and discretion and it is his responsibility everyone on his crew
01:08:02.800 yeah no that but that has like a parable quality to it to it that um you can imagine he
01:08:11.380 him being like misled is to the quality of this person or that like um you know uh this happens
01:08:21.540 in the later heist where they bring in the black black fellow who's like on parole and like um 0.97
01:08:28.780 working a miserable parole 0.99
01:08:30.840 job
01:08:32.800 where he's being exploited
01:08:34.920 and they know him
01:08:37.140 from like previous work that one of them
01:08:39.020 has done with him and so they show
01:08:41.120 up we need
01:08:43.100 you for this
01:08:43.940 we need a driver
01:08:46.240 are you talking about
01:08:48.880 Breeden
01:08:49.440 is that the name of the character Breeden
01:08:52.760 the guy played by Dennis
01:08:55.060 Haysbert
01:08:56.020 yes yes exactly uh he's brought in brought in last minute on the heist because they need an
01:09:06.220 an extra body as a getaway driver like imagine like something like that might
01:09:11.980 might have gone on but yes no they would not have brought frail wangrow in her like it's very hard 1.00
01:09:19.240 to imagine like them crossing paths organically and it's like uh putting on a production of live
01:09:26.800 theater right you have backups for all of your your core members and you don't have to vet someone
01:09:32.840 randomly at the last minute because you already have someone trusted as like an understudy
01:09:36.900 um i i would say no to that because indicated criminal or special forces operation should do
01:09:46.880 this or a special courses operation you would for a criminal operation you would not and the reason
01:09:52.360 you wouldn't is because you don't want like um you don't want your ecosystem of of like people
01:10:01.100 in the loop or like partially in the loop to grow too large like the best the best heist you don't
01:10:08.240 tell your um everyone you know in your backup circle exactly what's going on you just vet them
01:10:15.940 as in terms of their character whether it's okay to bring them on in the first place
01:10:20.760 i yes and no because you gotta remember like the thing that tips off hannah
01:10:27.860 isn't that anyone knows mccully and them are are on it's uh a random criminal has interacted with
01:10:36.840 michael's with michael and and just kind of understood oh this guy has something going on
01:10:44.740 at this point and that led hannah to like look closer into it and that's how hannah decided that
01:10:52.260 like no these guys are certainly the this is certainly the crew that pulled this pulled this
01:10:58.160 heist it was just like mere suspicion and avoiding mere suspicion like you want to keep that circle
01:11:04.340 very tight like even just having like like that's one of the things where it's like yeah ideally
01:11:11.140 you'd have like guys who don't know that you've already pre-vetted them or whatnot but i i would
01:11:18.940 strongly expect because you also have to build a trust in them that they would accept you coming
01:11:25.200 to them with like a uh opportunity like that and i'd suspect that like the the set of people you'd
01:11:33.440 have like that would be very very small and like most operation for them the u.s does a decent job
01:11:39.980 at breaking up large criminal organizations
01:11:41.740 before they can form.
01:11:43.560 But in, say, Mexico, right,
01:11:45.000 the cartels have postures of tens of thousands
01:11:47.380 of personnel to draw upon.
01:11:51.080 Oh, yeah, the cartels, like,
01:11:52.340 the cartels have, like,
01:11:54.280 reserves on reserves on reserves.
01:11:57.280 Like, they can always bring more people
01:11:58.940 into something.
01:12:00.180 But an operation like this,
01:12:01.540 I don't think you'd have backups.
01:12:03.160 But that parable,
01:12:04.780 that initial parable of
01:12:07.640 they're the perfect crew
01:12:09.140 then they brought a guy on who's a hothead and and like shot someone in the middle of the robbery
01:12:15.340 now the heat is on for them like that's a timeless like noir parable that's like you could set a
01:12:21.620 story in the 1910s right i mean that's the morality right like you it's always about
01:12:28.320 who you can trust to not just execute tactically but conform to the values that um that guide you
01:12:38.240 as an organization yeah and then they have one immediately after that where um so macaulay is
01:12:46.680 talking with macaulay uh robert nero's character is talking with nate john boyd's character and
01:12:53.840 john boyd's it's gonna fence the stolen barrel bonds that they've gotten in this arward car
01:12:58.180 robbery robbery so the void is there and he has a clever idea because obviously when you fence a
01:13:06.540 stolen good you're making a percentage on what's at you worth like you can't sell a stolen bear bond
01:13:12.980 valued at a million dollars for a million dollars you have to sell it at like like 50 percent or
01:13:19.640 like maybe 70 percent if you're very lucky lucky because the person who's accepting the stolen
01:13:27.420 goods is also taking a risk and they have to be compensated for that risk they have to profit from
01:13:31.920 so so what john boyd suggests and this is like actually really clever is john boyd discovered
01:13:40.380 that the person whose fair bonds they stole was a cartel money launderer who like operates
01:13:47.360 in la lay van zand and macaulay's like okay that's like kind of spooky we didn't know that
01:13:55.800 that but also like this is a bank robber like this is a bank armored car everything in that
01:14:02.420 car was insured like he's making he's making his 100 back on the on the insurance payout and like
01:14:10.740 he probably doesn't even have to fill a paperwork the insurance payout what does it matter like
01:14:14.940 like generally the carcels don't care if you rob a bank where their money is being being stored or
01:14:20.860 like you at home you don't care if like a bank robbery happens at your bank branch because your
01:14:27.140 your money isn't sure like it's not they aren't stealing your money they're stealing the thanks
01:14:31.600 i think everyone knows what the fdic is yeah exactly so so what john boyd says is exactly
01:14:40.520 he's getting paid out he has no reason to hold a grudge against you about this about this what
01:14:46.800 you can do is you can sell his own bearer bonds back to him and then his name is actually attached
01:14:55.060 to the stolen goods he just holds on to them normally and sells them normally it'll be
01:15:01.280 basically impossible for anyone to tell that these are the stolen bearer bonds because
01:15:07.080 because they're his bearer bonds you just sold them back to him and he got the insurance pay
01:15:12.740 fit on them so he's praise them anyways but yes exactly so so this was pitched to macaulay and
01:15:21.220 he's like he'd probably give you an extra 10 for this because it's so clean tidy and he's also
01:15:27.340 criminal so he'll do it and then van stand randomly lay this pencil pushing money launderer
01:15:34.300 who isn't even the muscle in his own operation like he's money laundering for the cartels
01:15:38.460 kerkels like he doesn't actually need like this reputation for being a tough guy because you know
01:15:46.740 he's he's doing back end for tough guys you know he needs like the smallest bit of muscle and then
01:15:54.540 he he does it and he like maybe has some other crimes he commits on the side he randomly decides 0.98
01:16:00.280 no i'm not gonna let it be known that they can steal from me i'm gonna kill these guys to like 0.87
01:16:06.980 try to build up his like reputation as a street tough that he maybe has like some minor crime 0.99
01:16:13.580 crimes he's committing that he wants like to have a tough reputation for and so this like
01:16:21.040 this completely nothing like offense against him this like opportunity they're giving him
01:16:30.600 him all of a sudden he decides to kill him and that's like that's such an incredible 0.97
01:16:36.520 way like it's so insane and dumb and yet it's so real like you can imagine this happening 0.99
01:16:44.180 these criminals right at any level you cannot discount the power of ego 0.99
01:16:48.500 to make people do irrational things yeah no well not even criminals like this
01:16:55.640 stuff like this has happened in geopolitics or like some random ego ego thing on the part of
01:17:02.040 like some politician or general or statesman has like like caused a complete cascade of
01:17:08.140 scripts like this i mean this is not right now right people think that president trump has like
01:17:13.240 some ego thing against ukraine because of their involvement in his impeachment in his first term
01:17:18.560 And so that might be driving the entire narrative of what a peace deal might look like going forward.
01:17:25.980 It's all about who who is wronged.
01:17:29.320 Yeah, well, well, it won't be because of the impeachment deal.
01:17:33.140 It'll be because, like, Ukraine was a money laundering operation for, like, the Bidens and like that faction of the DNC.
01:17:41.960 And like, remember, all foreign policy is domestic policy.
01:17:45.320 That was trying to destroy him.
01:17:46.060 like the reason you fight a foreign war is to shore up your power at home or like to defeat
01:17:52.840 a faction at home like foreign policy is it's domestic policy and domestic policy is foreign
01:17:58.200 policy it's all power struggles like like that but uh but like that that parable that way 0.94
01:18:06.640 like it's so it's so real and so dumb and it starts the cascade of everything else
01:18:13.300 else in the film and it's just it's it's gorgeous and there's and then they like
01:18:20.460 go to like don't macaulay and he sends two guys like he sends he sends one guy in a pickup truck
01:18:28.760 and one guy like hiding in the truck bed he's gonna shoot macaulay and it's like this is an
01:18:35.380 armored car robbery where they knocked over the army car they have at least four or five guys
01:18:40.180 seriously i mean two guys to ambush four guys guys i mean that's the thing with like guys like
01:18:47.400 van sant right who are not you know tactical operators they they get arrogant in their their
01:18:52.860 own perceived intellectual superiority that they don't bother to actually think it through
01:18:57.120 no that and that is like very real like there's been tons of dumb hits like that where like
01:19:05.280 Like, absolutely nobodies think they can take on, like, completely dangerous, dangerous people, like, with no planning.
01:19:18.020 Planning that, like, stuff like this taskade across American cities every day.
01:19:23.120 But the, and like, all the, and like, what I'm describing, these sound like, oh, that's a major plot point.
01:19:30.280 Oh, that's really interesting.
01:19:31.100 No, no, no, these are my ear points.
01:19:33.120 You will miss these events.
01:19:35.280 the first time you watch the film like this is secondary to like the duel of wits between
01:19:40.760 macaulay and and hannah which is the entire film like the entire film is this duel between these
01:19:46.280 two equal equal like apex predators who like um it's implied that at least hannah uh 0.95
01:19:54.960 uh it's a very very faintly implied but people speculated that hannah was like a brain corps
01:20:01.540 officer and like macaulay it's it's widely speculated that he has no military background
01:20:09.180 but like uh the zal kilmer probably does and that's where like macaulay gets it from but uh the
01:20:17.880 the like high level skill that's happening between these two main characters and then like you have
01:20:25.720 all these like parables uh hearing off from them and like and like all these little little cycles
01:20:35.960 and like and like things that are their own minor tragedies or their own minor comedies
01:20:41.640 that this is like the shakespearean structure you aren't just telling this like central
01:20:47.300 epic tragedy you're telling all these all these surrounding like like beautiful like folk stories
01:20:55.200 and stuff
01:20:57.020 that are... Once it happens closer to the
01:20:59.260 second half of the movie is that
01:21:00.820 Sheherlis' girl actually
01:21:02.840 full loyalty
01:21:04.980 to him, despite being placed
01:21:07.060 in a compromising position by
01:21:08.940 the LAPD.
01:21:11.080 This is something that I feel like
01:21:12.680 would not be filmed today. This is unfilmable
01:21:15.080 today. If they
01:21:17.120 set up the same scenario in a movie
01:21:18.980 coming out this year,
01:21:21.080 she would absolutely betray this guy. 0.98
01:21:23.040 The idea of female loyalty
01:21:24.380 in cinema is just gone yeah no and that's like the thing is that's because of course
01:21:31.700 every character is a reflection of the main characters um the the choice of of um val
01:21:41.600 kilmer uh what's his name chris to go back to his his girl even though like the heat is on
01:21:49.640 even though she's cheated off on him even though that they're like at a rocky point he still does
01:21:56.100 it because he he loves her or and then like that not being like immediately punished and him being
01:22:04.360 destroyed for like her going out of her way to like protect him because she sees that he
01:22:09.400 he loves her he has that loyalty yeah yeah because she she has that loyalty in spite of everything
01:22:16.260 she does love him him too too and him getting away with it uh successfully fake id is a cop
01:22:23.800 which tells me that that was a real id that he used that they could like phone it in and they
01:22:29.740 would check that they could radio it in and it would check out that he was like an id he bought
01:22:34.800 off someone um but but the fact that that works that's all a reflection of nicoley's relationship
01:22:42.740 with his his girl and his philosophy that no no no you have to be willing to walk out on
01:22:49.580 on anyone and anything in five minutes flat if you see the he around the corner
01:22:54.480 and he does make that decision in the movie uh spoilers and that sets up the entire
01:23:04.400 entire ending sequence or he makes it in a way uh we'll we'll get into the do you want to get
01:23:14.000 into the spoilers ending now
01:23:15.300 that i was under the impression that we were not doing it we were not having a spoilers policy i
01:23:23.920 mean surely everyone who has wanted to see he has seen it by now i mean yeah it's like a 30 year old
01:23:30.600 movie but but no like now we will discuss the like full ending so so the ending of heats uh
01:23:41.740 the it hurts me every time it hurts everyone every time it's like one of those it's like
01:23:49.280 it's like guts leaving the band of the hawk and berserk it's like it's like uh the ending
01:23:55.080 Macbeth, it's
01:23:57.240 Coriolanus
01:23:59.940 raging
01:24:02.480 in the Senate.
01:24:06.680 The entire
01:24:07.500 the entire
01:24:10.400 sea of heat is building up that
01:24:12.900 that this
01:24:15.100 unstoppable force
01:24:17.000 and this immovable object that Hannah
01:24:19.000 is coming for
01:24:19.980 for Macaulay
01:24:23.280 and macaulay is not going to get caught and and macaulay has a he's falling in love for the movie
01:24:30.940 and he wants to run away with his with his girl and and he's away clean he's gone on a bench he's
01:24:39.660 killed ben san san he's got the money he's tied up like almost all the loose ends he has like an
01:24:48.760 out he has a um he has a a plane waiting for him at the airport and fake ids to fly
01:24:57.820 fly away to new zealand and never be seen again that being said new zealand even is not you you
01:25:03.540 not entirely safe you ideally want to be in a country that will never extradite to the u.s
01:25:08.560 you want a country that'll never extradite but um even less than that if you because like that's a
01:25:16.280 limit number that that's like if you don't want to go to Cambodia or Russia um you want to go to
01:25:22.380 a country that's like at least outside the five eyes where the um where the police and the security
01:25:28.320 service is going to be like less integrated in terms of like registries and purchases
01:25:32.860 so that like like your fake IDs are more likely to work so like uh a fake ID in the come in like
01:25:41.720 core white commonwealth is like a much more difficult proposition to like maintain and work
01:25:47.780 with than like a fake id in like non-eu europe or like perky or um you know there are lots of 0.85
01:25:56.240 nice places that you can like you can hide out with lots of money and lead to like a very nice
01:26:01.700 lifestyle yeah it's fair like if you look at like the nicest neighborhoods and like even like
01:26:05.460 fairly poor countries like egypt or or mexico like there are extremely nice neighborhoods
01:26:10.340 yeah uh uh there's like and the thing is it if you're like just if you just manage to be in like
01:26:22.200 one of those like poor nicer countries like you have access to the wealthy countries
01:26:27.380 countries are like you can very easily have access to them but you don't have to like run
01:26:33.260 your property purchases through them or your banking through them which like is a very is
01:26:39.560 much more easily tracked in the 90s especially if you're using ticket the deal was just like
01:26:44.700 purely localized banking harder these days although the these days if you're if you're
01:26:50.280 willing to use crypto that that can help uh move certain assets as well yeah exactly no crypto has
01:26:58.580 like like a skill level has increased but the realms of possibilities have also increased
01:27:05.960 the skill ceiling are both going up
01:27:08.840 yeah
01:27:10.140 no the
01:27:11.240 but he has this
01:27:15.160 entire perfect getaway
01:27:17.200 plan and then
01:27:19.060 John Voight calls
01:27:21.280 him up and made this
01:27:23.060 brilliant fixer and tells him
01:27:25.140 okay this is all dealt with
01:27:27.060 your friend Chrissy he got away
01:27:29.540 with all this
01:27:30.600 oh by the way it's been put out
01:27:33.040 and we actually see the scene
01:27:34.680 where vincent hannah uh purposely leaks this information on like a witness under protective
01:27:42.520 custody custody but he leaks the location of a witness under protective custody which is insane
01:27:50.100 yeah like it would destroy your career but in this case it would destroy your career but he
01:27:57.020 want he wants macaulay this bad he wants revenge for like all the shot shot cops and like
01:28:02.780 that reminder to you kids at home the cops will not obey the rules if they want to get you
01:28:09.140 like you have to they're men too right they feel loyalty to their own yeah exactly they
01:28:15.220 like uh they will behave exactly like the cartels if if you make them want you enough
01:28:22.380 uh uh so he leaks waynegrove's location and mccully gets this and it's a strata
01:28:31.140 dramatic gorgeous moment they're driving through a tunnel this girl's at his side
01:28:35.620 he pulls over into the next lane he has to do it he has to do it he has to go after this guy who
01:28:42.060 like who like betrayed them who like started this cascade who like sold them out to the cops
01:28:48.320 the police detective here is betraying his his code by giving away this guy's location
01:28:54.140 while the criminal feels the code of honor perfect mirrors of each other yeah it's it's
01:29:00.660 gorgeous and and so he goes and he does this entirely like this could be like a hitman
01:29:08.440 sequence or like a melior solo he does this entirely genius infiltration of this um
01:29:15.520 of the hotel airport hotel like a motel that's under like police surveillance uh starts starts
01:29:26.380 the fire alarm manages to lure this guy out of his his room shoots him escapes escapes and it's
01:29:34.820 like steps from getting away and then hannah shows up and he has to take off on foot and like
01:29:41.160 look his girlfriend in the eye as he leaves her yeah that's the experience tragedy of it although
01:29:48.200 most of the infiltration is just act like you belong which really does work right like
01:29:53.000 if you are wearing the right thing and walking with purpose then no one will ever question your
01:29:58.560 presence in a supposedly secure area no absolutely absolutely mind you he does a lot of like other
01:30:05.620 clever things like uh like stalling the elevator so that a can't be used but b it um it's there for
01:30:13.840 him if he wants to use it like using the action right uh although he does have to kill another
01:30:19.500 police officer on on the top floor uh i can't recall he doesn't kill him he like beats him
01:30:27.000 unconscious which like isn't interesting oh he doesn't kill that guy okay yeah then i must be
01:30:32.680 yeah no there's no like murder shot like he uses he uses his fist which like i find like
01:30:39.240 well he isn't interesting because the entire point of it is um
01:30:44.880 you know uh vincent hannah says to him if it comes down between you and some poor schmo whose
01:30:51.960 wife you're gonna make him widow it's not gonna be a choice like i i will come after after you 0.72
01:30:58.820 so like the fact that they don't have a scene where like he kills one more innocent person
01:31:04.000 to get away with it like that like that's should have been a true i would have twisted the knife
01:31:11.540 fair but other but it doesn't break the film right i mean especially like earlier in the movie
01:31:17.960 where they're executing the other guards was like the mozambique drill and whatnot yeah yeah like
01:31:23.460 that that would have been like a good moment to like call back i can imagine like producers like
01:31:29.540 i can imagine the film discussion that went into that choice of him
01:31:34.240 him beating the cop unconscious
01:31:36.540 instead of killing him 0.51
01:31:38.260 but uh 1.00
01:31:40.660 yeah and then they have that gorgeous duel 0.95
01:31:42.840 like
01:31:43.480 in the shadow of the air part
01:31:46.960 which is like
01:31:48.880 one of the best like
01:31:50.080 quiet action sequences
01:31:52.940 they ever shot
01:31:54.700 see it's always
01:31:56.320 ambiguity of cover right because you never
01:31:58.500 actually are 100%
01:32:00.700 sure where the other guy is and so
01:32:02.620 it's that element of constant risk that makes the final scene so compelling yeah no like that would
01:32:09.540 i'm all of a certain that exact setting was like copied in like one of the pub g maps
01:32:17.940 maps at one point because like pub g is the exact that tactical like um problem of the
01:32:25.980 entirety of cover and like
01:32:28.200 the vast range
01:32:30.240 of the weapons
01:32:31.120 weapons that um
01:32:34.100 that you get like
01:32:37.220 I've never played PUBG so I don't really know what you're talking about there
01:32:40.160 but if they can simulate that sort of atmosphere
01:32:42.280 that's good game design
01:32:43.520 uh well originally
01:32:46.040 PUBG simulated that
01:32:47.840 and the problem was they also
01:32:49.900 have like a
01:32:51.340 segment of the map that was like a shooting gallery
01:32:54.340 that you play like called
01:32:55.900 duty duty just like naturally in the environment so everyone who played in that section got better
01:33:01.780 and better at the shootout mechanics and then that killed uh don't play pub g now you're not
01:33:06.420 playing pub g but uh but like for the for like the first year or so of the game like it actually
01:33:15.060 did have like that atmosphere that like paranoia of um of like modern rifle combat that that like
01:33:23.440 so rarely gets like simulated in games where like the ranges i mean the other aspect of the final
01:33:29.660 shootout is that the airliners uh headlights that are going past will periodically illuminate and
01:33:35.540 cast like new shadows and give away your location right like if they could implement that into a
01:33:41.600 game that would be interesting the use of yeah no that would like um if you could if you're a game
01:33:48.860 designer like deciding on like what you want what you want to make your like first person shooter
01:33:57.380 like new and interesting like recreate the original paranoia of like pub g like when players
01:34:04.400 weren't good and weren't treating it like call duty and like like specifically aim for the mood
01:34:10.240 of like the ending shootout of heat where it's like no you have to be methodical like the big
01:34:15.260 gun battle in the middle right like gta um like payday i think some kojima stuff was all influenced
01:34:22.860 by the big shootout in the middle but the final gun duel is just as compelling in a different way
01:34:27.560 yeah so the the react to contact in the middle so like uh all right we're gonna do the full
01:34:37.020 gun to her thing uh so the the shootout in the middle is like a perfect uh i've heard multiple
01:34:44.420 cases of like infantry schools teaching this scene in like uh their their combat training
01:34:53.000 like actually playing the film and like breaking it down step by step the instructor shows like
01:34:59.600 you know the cadets or whatever uh her list reloading and says and tells uh the kids hey
01:35:05.460 you guys do it like that too yeah you better be able to reload and return fire better than this
01:35:11.500 actor uh is the like big bullet that's famous but uh the uh the so they come out of the bank
01:35:22.320 and they're immediately ambushed by the police because wayne grow who macaulay hunts down later
01:35:28.120 in the film and who like screwed them over on the first heist he he betrayed where one of their
01:35:35.880 their guys lived to the money launderer under and the money launderer tortured it out of him
01:35:42.840 that they're falling off this heist and weak that to the police so they again do not underestimate
01:35:50.120 your your foes like criminals will rat you out to the cops and the cops will use criminal methods to
01:35:57.060 to get you but uh but so they come out of the bank and they're in ambush this perfect plot
01:36:06.420 that they've gotten away with leak leaks like that and they are are ambushed coming out they
01:36:13.300 got coming out of the bank but the thing is they had modern rifles and they came in fully armed
01:36:19.520 to win a gunfight uh which weirdly enough um u.s law incentivizes like um they passed a law
01:36:32.640 at one point that if you use an unloaded gun or fake gun that um and this is replicated across
01:36:41.160 the western world that if you use like a fake gun like a bb gun you'll still get weapons charges
01:36:47.060 charges like there's no incentive to like go in with less firepower into a bank heist
01:36:55.060 or like any crime well like there's no incentive that go down in the u.s right now
01:37:01.420 are people who go in with a note telling the telling the the teller or whatever
01:37:06.480 to pass over money under you know presumed coercive threat but the actual robber is not armed
01:37:13.600 yeah no and that's like what most criminals will tell you to do because the second you 0.99
01:37:20.640 have like a fake firearm they will treat it as if you went in with like a fucking tank 0.88
01:37:26.220 but the thing is as soon as you are using like a firearm or anything anything there's no incentive 0.98
01:37:33.480 whatsoever to leave ammunition at home oh my god and there you see this in heat that they go in
01:37:41.720 with everything they have they have like something like six eight mags each which like i've heard
01:37:49.300 i've heard soldiers say uh special forces guys say that they carry like 16 team for some
01:37:57.000 operations because they do not want because basically infantry patrols yes usually a lot
01:38:04.200 less than that though uh so for so basically what you see in the film is exactly how you respond
01:38:12.580 to an ambush or how you break an ambush is you have to be like like dumping enough ammo on your
01:38:20.960 opponent that like despite them having the advantage and having the drop on you they have
01:38:26.920 to duck duck because you're returning that larger volume of fire like if they have a machine gun
01:38:33.900 and rifles and everything else like trained on you you're putting out that much fire at once
01:38:41.160 that yeah so you know you're getting them but they have to be that they were like you know
01:38:47.760 1300 rounds fired and uh between 20 cops and uh two criminals and the two criminals fired 0.68
01:38:53.840 an equivalent number of bullets yes exactly you have to you have to substitute your crappy 0.97
01:39:02.820 position you have to completely compensate for your crappy position with firepower and then you
01:39:08.380 have to using that firepower you have to get out of the kill box as fast as possible like do
01:39:14.320 it's the do bounds as they do the bounding maneuver the uh in which one guy shoots the
01:39:20.660 second guy into position until they're out of the the prepared lapd kill zone yeah and it's
01:39:28.220 gorgeously done and then the film which um apparently the only thing that's unrealistic
01:39:34.520 about it is um the monetary value they put on the heist so they said it was 12 million dollars
01:39:46.420 which is not like actually a like is an incredible haul but is actually like would be achievable in
01:39:56.060 the mid 90s because like that's before credit cards become really common like if you're hitting
01:40:01.760 the central between like six guys though yeah but if you're hitting a central distribution hub for
01:40:08.560 the cash for la like all that cash has to go to all the branches where like that's what people
01:40:13.960 are like transacting with when they cash their paycheck like it's not like plausible especially
01:40:19.540 if you have like an insider uh that's working at the bank that will tell you when and where
01:40:24.580 these things are happening you weren't listening to i'll tell you what's unrealistic about it so
01:40:30.680 so we actually see neil macaulay meet with an insider at the bank in an earlier sequence with
01:40:36.740 john boyd's character the fixer and where they go over why when the money's being brought in why
01:40:45.040 it's being brought in where it's being kept how it's being being kept and he pays this guy a
01:40:50.760 hundred thousand dollars plus a percentage of the heist for this information which if you're out
01:40:58.000 there and you have have a secure privileged information know that know that in 95 that's
01:41:06.840 what it was valued at at six figures and 10 of the resulting amount but but here's the unrealistic
01:41:15.460 thing about it all that is realistic the amount that you get uh the way they go about like
01:41:21.240 identifying where it is because it's also possible to rob a bank and just get away with like
01:41:24.900 two thousand dollars or thirty thousand dollars like some paltry amount most bank robbers get a 0.85
01:41:31.200 paltry amount bills with like dye packs and shit but here's the unrealistic thing 0.88
01:41:38.720 the weight of the money the amount of money they managed to get would have weighed uh someone did 0.96
01:41:48.540 the math and divided up it would have weighed 90 pounds each in those duffel bags they're carrying
01:41:53.860 which which like you see them in the shootout like running with those duffel bags like dangling off
01:42:00.960 them at the odd angle and that's the unrealistic thing um i think administrative results uh actually
01:42:08.400 tried to like replicate the heat shootout and do the drills with like 90 pound weights hanging off
01:42:13.580 of mid-double bay and that's unachievable so so for the well it's for soldiers in combat have
01:42:21.940 approached 90 pounds though right like yeah but they had 90 pounds in a rucksack and was like
01:42:28.200 properly distributed right so it's better distributed but like in total right like
01:42:33.740 uh gis landing on like omaha beach in 44 were carrying like 100 pounds like paratroopers
01:42:40.020 dropping during the invasion of granada were carrying like 130 yeah so so for infantry um
01:42:48.540 if you look at like the old alice packs packs or like the old ruck rucksacks uh most of them
01:42:56.320 still issued today in most armies i'm almost certain uh have quick release straps so that um
01:43:04.100 if you're on a patrol and you've got like 90 pounds on your back and you've got your rifle
01:43:08.280 you've got all this kit and you like get contact and are being fired upon uh you just pull two
01:43:15.540 straps on your shoulders and that disassembles the um the shoulder straps that just falls right
01:43:22.720 off you and you're immediately in the in the fight that you don't have that weight on you as
01:43:27.620 you're fighting however there's an interesting exception to this uh during the falklands war
01:43:34.960 uh the sas as they were like uh patrolling through the falklands and taking like these positions on
01:43:43.220 like um the falklands are actually like like they're large islands but they're actually like
01:43:48.820 something of a hike like it's oh yeah there were extended infantry patrols to contact before um
01:43:55.060 yeah exactly especially since the british fleet lost all of their transport helicopters when uh
01:44:01.380 ship atlantic conveyor was hit by the argentine air force so they had to rock the entire way
01:44:06.140 they thought that they were going to be doing an air assault but uh nope you had to walk no
01:44:10.120 no get your rock marches in that's like you probably the most relevant to it that's still
01:44:17.060 their most relevant skill in warfare is just how far can you walk with how much but um one of the
01:44:24.680 things with those patrols and one of the things that's really big in mountain warfare is that like
01:44:31.140 the Falklands there are several cases where like they could not drop their packs because they would
01:44:38.920 lose them if they did did like um if you're in the mountains or like um you're in like an open
01:44:46.560 field and have to like maneuver away from contacts like and you drop your pack you might
01:44:53.900 not ever get it back so there there has been like um there hasn't been like much discussion about it
01:45:01.160 but there are like like uh kind of hidden discussions in the discussions of like logistics
01:45:07.760 and rucking and and respond to contact that actually a lot of modern warfare you can't
01:45:16.060 drop your pack and you do have to fight with 90 pounds of weight weight on you and like obviously
01:45:23.240 a bank roffer you you aren't going to drop the money money so like really bad the logistical
01:45:31.420 challenges of of fighting this like running gun battle with with that much weight and money up
01:45:39.340 on you uh obviously if you watch the film they're actually simulating 90 pounds so like they're
01:45:45.920 assuming that's like 40 pounds which like is not how the math works out but that's like a perfectly
01:45:50.640 reasonable amount for you to get a bank robbery they it just doesn't line up with the number
01:45:54.820 they quoted earlier but uh the carrying like you know 2 million instead of 4 million it's still a
01:46:00.180 very large sum of money in the 1990s yeah but like that's more what's depicted in terms of like the
01:46:07.080 weight they have on them that like it looks like 40 pounds it doesn't look like 90 pounds
01:46:11.380 but uh rocking um it was the earliest early 20th century where this was most relevant on
01:46:18.440 the operational level where german units especially would just rock incessantly in
01:46:24.300 peacetime before war in order to be able to do these cross-country marches twice as fast as say
01:46:30.140 like an equivalent french reserve unit that was just called up made out of like you know guys in
01:46:34.640 their 30s who haven't uh been with their units for a long time and so that ability for an infantry
01:46:40.280 division just to move twice as fast as an adversary division that was attempting to
01:46:47.340 cover ground was the source of a lot of Prussian maneuver victory in the early stages of World
01:46:54.040 War I and even during the invasion of France in World War II. By the end of the war, this
01:47:01.220 is gone, right? The German advantage is gone because they don't have time to train units 0.57
01:47:04.300 and just rucking all day. And they're just constantly feeding units back into the meat 0.99
01:47:09.300 grinder but in peacetime if you have a large body of men to train and you have time but not a lot of
01:47:15.140 money ruck training can give you a pretty decisive maneuver advantage in the period before mass
01:47:20.280 mechanization yeah no and this is like like bring it back to urban infiltration exfiltration like
01:47:28.260 your ability to like zigzag across the city before before a crime and after a crime like that's
01:47:36.700 that's like what's going to break the chain of surveillance and like create exponentially more
01:47:43.520 work for them if they want to track you back to any anywhere is just your ability to
01:47:48.500 to move through through an urban train for extended periods of time without in a way that
01:47:57.240 breaks surveillance which like like if they get you going on to the subway they get you coming
01:48:03.140 off the subway like those trains are numbered they're visible on the side they have cameras
01:48:07.180 inside like if you're seeing boarding the subway it doesn't matter how far you ride it they're
01:48:12.240 going to see you coming off the subway and it's a very easy to track same with the cab same with
01:48:17.360 a cab if you uber is even worse yeah exactly exactly if you board a cab and they see you
01:48:23.900 getting in the cab the cab has a number they're going to see you getting out of the cab and the
01:48:27.780 cab has like gps stuff on it um so that like like 20 kilometers by cab if they see you getting in
01:48:35.620 it it actually only adds like five to five minutes to an hour of them like tracking you
01:48:41.620 tracking you down uh even e-bike like if you use a preloaded credit card to rent an e-bike
01:48:48.440 and loop around even if it can't be tracked to you through the purchase the e-bike company
01:48:56.220 has a gps on that e-bike and they can like very easily pull exactly where you went that even if
01:49:04.020 that doesn't betray anything to you riding around on the e-bike for like an hour adds nothing but
01:49:10.320 just walking or like briskly moving to the city like even if they're like going through through
01:49:18.280 the porch cameras which i've never heard that they can like pull up data from porch cameras
01:49:22.960 even if they're going through the porch hammers to track you if you're like going through back
01:49:26.860 alleys and stuff and like going various ways that's a nightmare for them to track and that's
01:49:34.100 creating lots of effort and lots of gaps and like if you get on like a trail traveling that if like
01:49:41.640 probably probably just like really effortful hours of footwork after a major crime right
01:49:49.460 destroys their ability to track you if you're like also controlling your electronic emissions
01:49:55.920 and also like like not betraying yourself with like registry and financial data
01:50:01.520 right if you are not like the most wanted terror suspect number one just doing all of these minor
01:50:08.040 things to add informational complexity to your pursuers will eventually outstretch their
01:50:13.980 willingness to commit resources to track you down if you are suspect number one though they will go
01:50:20.340 all the way they'll go all the way but like you can imagine you imagine like how long does it take
01:50:27.760 them to do that even if they're pouring infinite resources on on it is that like if you zigzag
01:50:33.560 around the city is that like who days to track down all the that information is that 24 hours
01:50:39.360 like if you've done all that and then like finally you get back to like a burner be
01:50:45.240 to like a vehicle or burner vehicle like we're assuming that you've just like you know assassinated
01:50:51.260 ahead of state and they're throwing everything at you how you get back to a burner vehicle or
01:50:57.340 something and tear away it takes them a day plus to get back to the vehicle assuming that the chain
01:51:03.720 doesn't break and they can actually like there is enough information there for them to track you
01:51:09.460 that one of the gaps doesn't just break it break it they're day they're day plus behind you already
01:51:17.120 you burn it mad on that vehicle you ditch that vehicle like but it's very easy to get get up to
01:51:24.520 a point where where you're for the amount of days you're putting between the investigation and
01:51:31.960 finding you is like
01:51:33.480 rapidly exceeding the number
01:51:35.980 of days that are passing.
01:51:40.060 Right. For the
01:51:41.700 typical suspect, these things
01:51:43.800 are likely to
01:51:45.880 add enough informational complexity
01:51:47.460 to make it difficult for you to be tracked.
01:51:50.520 Yeah. If you're
01:51:52.160 if you're
01:51:54.120 I don't know, if you're like 0.88
01:51:55.500 the jackal taking
01:51:58.040 out Charles de Gaulle or the modern
01:51:59.860 equivalent like you have to do a ton of stuff after this to get beyond beyond it is as well
01:52:06.680 that like you do have to pull out all the stops for like really informational discipline and stuff
01:52:12.820 but like even then hey like basic footwork at that's a lot and uh so there's one other scenario
01:52:22.980 where you can get into extremely high-intensity urban combat
01:52:27.560 and not have to do any of these things to cover your tracks
01:52:32.840 because if you are with a sufficiently large group of armed men,
01:52:38.500 you often have the leverage to just negotiate with the government
01:52:42.180 in some third world regime to give you full amnesty
01:52:45.320 so they don't have to destroy half the urban core to get you out.
01:52:48.640 And so this is what happened in the 1989 Philippine coup d'etat attempt
01:52:52.220 where, like, Philippine Marine Rangers, like, attacked central Manila and were fighting a fierce gun battle supported by, you know, howitzer-armed landing vehicles and T-28 aircraft.
01:53:03.540 And when the coup failed to secure the presidential palace and arrest President Corazon Aquino,
01:53:10.780 the entire battalion of, like, rangers in central Manila negotiated total amnesty
01:53:18.240 because otherwise the army would have to destroy half the city to to beat them out so they were
01:53:24.220 able to walk away scot uh scot free just like a you know like a 16th century garrison you know
01:53:30.360 parading out with all of their flags and honors yeah no um you see this in like tons of coup
01:53:39.040 attempts in history where there are these negotiated ends or like shockingly generous
01:53:45.000 terms given these people uh you see this with a lot of different terrorist movements so like the
01:53:50.700 FLQ in Quebec in like Canada in the 70s uh a bunch of them got um negotiated terms that they
01:54:00.740 were able to like board a flight to Cuba and I think some of them were like emceed in the 2000s
01:54:06.780 uh uh obviously like all the american deserters who like who fled the country like they got
01:54:17.180 amnesty within like four years like there's a shocking number of like like things you think
01:54:22.760 would be damning and ruin your life that like no no you're gonna as long as you like don't get
01:54:28.080 caught or like manage to negotiate something like you'll get amnestied in like 10 years because
01:54:33.520 it'll be politically inconvenient for you to be feel like track down like or or like a regime
01:54:40.840 that's like somewhat sympathetic to your movement will take power yeah exactly which like we saw
01:54:46.980 what happened to the january 6th guys right i mean yeah we saw what happened to january 6th guys we
01:54:53.300 saw what happened to ross ulbricht which like i never would have expected that ulbricht would be
01:54:58.360 free in 10 years really because the prediction markets were saying 70 plus that trump would
01:55:03.020 amnesty him like you know even several months ago yeah several months ago but if i if we go back
01:55:08.120 like five five years or so like trump didn't pardon him the first time so like most people
01:55:14.100 like you know as recently as like 2020 politician right like he knew that doing this would gain him
01:55:22.340 sympathy among you know libertarian types so yeah no like by by the time we know trump is running
01:55:28.600 again again and like the lay of the land of 2024 it becomes vastly more likely but if you're like
01:55:34.920 if you're like projecting it from like 2018 by one of the odds at that time that being said i saw a
01:55:45.780 fairly funny meme about this uh trump sentences man to 20 years of libertarian podcast appearances
01:55:50.780 uh and here we didn't even commit a crime
01:55:55.600 and if you could get uh ross olbrecht on this show that might be interesting
01:56:00.420 oh i i would love to have ross olbrecht on the show i haven't i haven't seen him appear on like
01:56:06.400 hardly anything so i think he's just like decompressing which like totally understand
01:56:12.580 i would do yeah yeah no uh going through 10 missed years going back to all those reddit
01:56:22.200 postsiness but uh out of everything to catch up on reddit no no no this is the thing because
01:56:29.840 in 2015 like like when he went away reddit was still like like heckies and stuff right
01:56:37.860 back when reddit thought ron paul was cool yeah yeah i remember like like in 2018 2019 all these
01:56:47.520 like arrested bitcoin guys who were like getting out in a few years they're being interviewed oh
01:56:53.740 what did you miss most yeah i couldn't like follow anything that was happening in the space because
01:56:59.080 i didn't have access to reddit or like i got a smuggled cell phone at one point and the first
01:57:03.300 thing i did was check reddit it's like wow like you like even at the time they're saying this
01:57:09.760 it was like reddit isn't that anymore more like reddit isn't like like nerdy libertarians and
01:57:16.340 anymore and bitcoin people like big public forums on the internet being places where you can
01:57:21.220 coordinate with like-minded people is slowly dying it's all private groups now the internet
01:57:25.480 is breaking up into small cells like i don't know your discord slav war telegrams that sort
01:57:31.580 of thing oh yeah oh yeah no dark force steering action but uh there really are super predators
01:57:40.400 out there yes exactly exactly but um but no like uh if you if you manage to get away and like
01:57:52.600 or or get into a position where you can negotiate you're probably fine unless like you you're really
01:58:01.000 bad at the negotiation like for gozen like uh the fact that he didn't want to be extradited to
01:58:07.600 a third country after like trying to launch a coup against the russian government that he thought he
01:58:15.200 could stay within russia he thought he could control the narrative and present it as a military
01:58:21.200 mutiny for better conditions rather than a coup attempt but and and he has a point in the sense
01:58:26.420 that most historical 20th century military
01:58:28.520 mutinies, like the big
01:58:29.880 mutinies 1.00
01:58:31.740 right after World War I
01:58:33.620 on various
01:58:36.060 national navies, they very rarely
01:58:38.300 end with the ringleaders
01:58:39.540 being executed. There's always some sort
01:58:42.480 of mass amnesty. But Prigozhin 1.00
01:58:44.500 went too far, he shot down a bunch of
01:58:46.400 Russian Elant aircraft,
01:58:48.520 made it very obvious he was driving on Moscow
01:58:50.420 and then it was over.
01:58:52.620 Yeah, no, the 0.95
01:58:53.440 Well, the Royal Navy, the Great Mutiny, they negotiated it out, which, like, you think if any institution in history was, like, never negotiate with mutineers or would, like, hunt them to the end of the earth, it would be the Royal Navy.
01:59:09.960 So they hunt the mutineers to the end of the earth if the mutineers kill their captains?
01:59:15.660 Yes. 0.68
01:59:16.140 if they don't and uh and there is like minimal like loss of life then they are fine with
01:59:23.040 negotiating yes no exactly but uh so the but uh pergozan thinking he could stay within russia was
01:59:34.140 in completely insane to me uh he could eventually just become the kremlin's man in africa
01:59:40.960 that obviously did not pan out the the putin team did a thorough investigation on whether
01:59:47.960 on his relative net value to russia as a active asset versus versus an example and uh the ledger
01:59:55.140 came out higher on the second category yeah yeah no forever kids you can't go into exile
02:00:02.820 without going into exile well he was in africa for a while he just decided to come back he
02:00:08.420 he bought the regime line
02:00:11.260 that he could be rehabilitated
02:00:13.080 oh man
02:00:14.740 what a guy
02:00:16.260 he has like main character
02:00:19.880 almost caesarian energy
02:00:21.300 he just didn't have the execution
02:00:22.720 you rarely see
02:00:27.760 this archetype of man in the west
02:00:29.260 but out there
02:00:31.000 in the deserts of Syria and Sudan 1.00
02:00:33.720 men like that still exist
02:00:35.300 uh the russian soul is a beautiful thing beautiful and tragic but um
02:00:43.240 uh i'm at a loss for words right right now act it heat we're discussing michael nance heat
02:00:53.880 uh okay yeah back to heat yeah so one of the amazing things about this film
02:01:02.480 is that like you think i've covered all the main plot points you think i'm i've covered all like
02:01:09.440 the intricacies and stuff and the answer is no because actually if you break it down into
02:01:15.800 operational level there are like eight different criminal operations that happen in the film like
02:01:23.340 tactical operations operations not all the criminal enterprises which are happening in the film
02:01:30.060 which are like
02:01:31.000 interesting
02:01:31.800 like
02:01:33.320 you could write
02:01:34.720 a paper on this film
02:01:36.060 just on all the
02:01:38.080 business case studies
02:01:39.460 that are present in it
02:01:40.940 I'm sure that someone has
02:01:42.000 like
02:01:43.480 if it hasn't been written
02:01:45.220 like
02:01:45.880 like
02:01:46.740 get some friends
02:01:48.120 and write a book
02:01:49.060 of just all the
02:01:50.080 of just
02:01:50.920 uh
02:01:51.520 advanced studies
02:01:53.200 and Michael Mann's heat
02:01:54.400 but uh
02:01:55.500 one of the
02:01:56.340 big things is
02:01:57.840 is you have these like
02:01:59.260 eight
02:01:59.800 operational case studies which are insane because it's not just the original heist it's not just
02:02:05.560 the final shoot shootout there's also like the the operation to assassinate wangrow the first
02:02:15.460 time they they try to take out wangrow when they're going to like murder him in the back of
02:02:20.440 their their car because like he he like very plainly derailed their entire operation to like
02:02:28.040 kill someone for fun and and if you watch that scene where they were all five of them gather in
02:02:35.100 the diner and then like fake him out and think that they're just gonna let him go like like pay 0.99
02:02:40.080 him out and then like they never want to see him again but then they actually go to kill him like
02:02:44.820 that entire operation the entire fake out that hit is like incredibly complexly
02:02:50.760 be done and has as much
02:02:52.940 care and effort put into it as any of the
02:02:54.980 heists. Likewise
02:02:56.280 the prologue
02:02:59.660 heist
02:03:01.660 of Macaulay
02:03:02.780 taking the train way
02:03:04.960 out into town like he's donned this
02:03:06.880 laver costume and he's stealing
02:03:08.880 an ambulance for the heist
02:03:10.560 for the heist. The entire sequence
02:03:13.000 is actually like this great
02:03:15.020 piece. Look, he's studying
02:03:16.820 social engineering
02:03:17.980 hearing that.
02:03:19.560 that change of a high of a high trust america that once existed but no longer does
02:03:25.160 yeah but i i don't know i think if you wore like the right outfit you could do that again
02:03:31.300 and like had the right because he had a like a fake pass like you could probably do that
02:03:37.960 the day that like they do leave keys in the mission of all this stuff still for these up
02:03:45.500 for like the
02:03:47.380 especially ambulances and emergency vehicles
02:03:49.940 that are like hot. Well I think you could
02:03:52.020 you could probably do that
02:03:54.260 today. There are going to be so many
02:03:56.240 random like high impulsivity
02:03:58.340 low level
02:04:00.140 criminal actors that are going to be
02:04:01.720 trying this sort of thing and attempting to
02:04:04.080 steal cars just to like
02:04:05.780 you know joyride and then dump at a
02:04:08.120 chop shop that the
02:04:09.960 baseline level of security is going to be a lot
02:04:12.120 higher.
02:04:12.400 uh yeah i remember though this is the 90s it's like urban hellscape america this is like uh
02:04:20.480 it's like the height of the crime wave that this is all all going on like um technically they had
02:04:27.100 a higher murder homicide rate in that era than we have now like this is when um like this is the
02:04:34.360 end of the era when like uh their entire like neighborhoods in new york that look like berlin
02:04:41.360 45 okay it can't be not that bad but yes it was a different era no no no if you look up video of
02:04:49.720 the bronx and like some of the housing projects that like that like burnt down or like were being
02:04:56.600 torn down and destroyed like there are there's footage of like new york city chicago st louis
02:05:04.360 detroit that looked pretty bad but new york was never berlin 45 okay it did not get leveled by
02:05:09.280 the ace air force dropping 14 000 pounds of bombs per aircraft every night uh look if you watch
02:05:18.340 escape from new york you wonder how did they get these shots of like urban decay of like urban
02:05:23.680 destruction stuff they just filmed then st louis like that's what st louis looked like
02:05:28.840 is escape from new york okay st louis was pretty bad yeah but uh but uh so like like you this was
02:05:39.140 like a high trust like 1950s america this isn't the 90s i'm like i think that don't probably work
02:05:46.980 today if you did it at the right right hospital but that's like a little operation that's like
02:05:51.680 a little parable you could do a key study on macaulay stealing that ambulance and like actually
02:05:57.860 there is like a lot of operational skill put into it same with the overwatch for like the
02:06:03.620 the handoff to ban sand same with you the abandoned robbery of the precious metals
02:06:11.180 depository that that's like this iconic sequence that has influenced like so many video games and
02:06:17.980 how they interpret um robbery sequences and like like so many different fictionalized
02:06:24.440 of robberies and um if you go to the anarchonomicon warlord's ring list i have
02:06:32.620 i'll call up the specific entry right now but i have the the master lock picking buck like the
02:06:41.780 two volumes um uh the two volume set that like like interpol uses for
02:06:52.980 for like cracking down to highest level bank robbers robbers i was traded by master locksmith
02:07:00.940 like 4 000 pages and the techniques they use to break into this precious metal deposit
02:07:08.320 depository are like right out of like the best case studies of of this work um i'll have to
02:07:17.020 He'll do you on that because you know a lot more about lockpicking than I do.
02:07:21.860 I don't know that much about lockpicking.
02:07:24.020 I just know.
02:07:29.220 I just know the.
02:07:35.360 Oh, God, it's not coming up here.
02:07:37.280 Oh, here we are.
02:07:39.280 Well, yeah, I don't actually know that much about lockpicking.
02:07:41.900 I've looked into it a little bit.
02:07:44.020 I can tell you stuff about, like, getting out of handcuffs and whatnot, but, oh, Lock, Safe, and Security, an international police reference, second edition, and the classified government edition that's used by intel agencies and, like, Interpol and the place that includes a lot of, like, the hidden details is actually has leaked online.
02:08:14.020 It's by Mark Webber Tobias, Entry 42 on the Warlord's Reading List.
02:08:20.560 And they have pages that go into exactly the techniques.
02:08:25.860 They don't use heat as a case study, but all the techniques used in heat are right out of that book,
02:08:33.660 like how they're using the drill to get into the precious metals depository.
02:08:37.540 And the discipline exercise that, um, apparently, so the parable of the precious male's depository robbery is they use all these advanced techniques.
02:08:48.620 They disable the alarm system.
02:08:50.260 They break into the depository.
02:08:52.740 They go to, they bring all this heavy equipment in to break into the safe.
02:08:57.720 And then as they're doing it, Macaulay steps outside to act as security and just stands in the shadows.
02:09:03.540 And he's being observed this entire time.
02:09:05.200 It's a gorgeous shot.
02:09:06.360 him hiding the shadows and he's invisible and then them inside this surveillance van
02:09:13.420 detective han and the and the SWAT team inside the surveillance van doing surveillance of him
02:09:20.580 and they can see his face clearly through the through the night vision and ir and he his face
02:09:30.580 pans and looks exactly
02:09:32.660 at the this
02:09:34.500 row of trucks that is
02:09:36.640 part of like a delivery
02:09:38.760 service that's across the street
02:09:40.300 and like he has a suspicious look
02:09:42.600 that you can even see through the
02:09:44.320 the security through the
02:09:46.600 IR footage of him that they're seeing
02:09:48.500 in the van and
02:09:50.660 then one of the cops
02:09:52.340 cop just like shifts slightly
02:09:54.740 and his AR-15 bumps
02:09:56.740 the side of the van and makes a noise
02:09:58.400 This happened with the IRL, Neil Macaulay, too. One of his previous heists before his final shootout did end prematurely because of the exact same failed police ambush.
02:10:12.860 yes if i remember the story that i that i heard it was that um they're breaking in
02:10:20.800 into a safe and above them in the apartment above them uh uh was the police stakeout like
02:10:31.720 listening to them and watching them and one of the cops up there bumped them and the real life
02:10:38.060 neil macaulay in the 1960s as this criminal that like uh this cop was really taken taken with and
02:10:45.320 actually decided to go get coffee with and that like inspired michael mint the real life neil
02:10:50.900 macaulay abandoned everything just like um al pacino in the middle of in the middle of the
02:10:57.140 precious mill depository heist and told all these guys no we're leaving we're getting out we're
02:11:01.880 getting out and the real and the real life cop just like detective hannah tells all the all the
02:11:10.360 cops that no we are not arresting these guys on breaking and entering that won't that won't stick
02:11:16.640 you know because breaking in in and even like damaging the safe like uh there there isn't a
02:11:26.160 crime of attempted robbery like there's a crime of attempted murder murder like trespassing or
02:11:32.780 whatever but it's not the same yeah and it's destruction of property like they're damaging
02:11:37.560 the safe but until they've actually stolen it it's um you know robbery and theft is a crime of value
02:11:47.840 like if you threaten someone you can get them on threatening them but uh theft is only um
02:11:53.180 a crime once the item is stolen
02:11:56.080 until then it's destruction of property
02:11:57.660 it's trespass
02:11:59.760 and the scale of the crime
02:12:02.160 is tied to the value of the goods stolen
02:12:04.200 so like you see
02:12:05.760 all these liberal judges
02:12:08.300 who refuse to like convict
02:12:10.500 on theft
02:12:12.440 under a thousand dollars
02:12:13.840 and so that gets up to the colonels
02:12:16.160 up to $999 worth
02:12:18.300 of merchandise in like San Francisco is free
02:12:20.160 or whatever
02:12:20.640 yeah exactly exactly
02:12:23.180 So, so the real, real life cop, um, you had his name.
02:12:30.500 Uh, the one who took down Macaulay, uh, Chuck Adamson.
02:12:34.180 Yeah, Chuck Adamson.
02:12:35.980 He did exactly what Hannah did and he said, no, we're letting them go because he didn't
02:12:41.980 want to like waste all their investigative effort on like a, a trespassing charge and
02:12:48.220 to structure property charge and in that parable like the technical cold details are included the
02:12:56.960 fact that um uh who uh slake michael uh he climbs the telephone pole to disable the
02:13:07.640 the alarm using um using lumberjacking boots that there are these special boots design that like um
02:13:16.460 you step and they will dig into wood
02:13:19.400 wood so you can like walk up
02:13:23.080 like a wooden pole
02:13:25.200 the same way you'd walk up like a ladder
02:13:27.380 ladder like all those techniques
02:13:30.940 everything you see in that is 100% real
02:13:33.100 despite the fact that it's like the most sci-fi looking
02:13:35.880 looking thing like still like
02:13:38.240 you never see
02:13:39.980 see criminals employ
02:13:42.660 employ this many advanced techniques in concert
02:13:45.780 except for like luigi maggione who did like have like several impressive like very modern uh
02:13:54.920 offset techniques like you can find the ghost gun with the mask which is like a post 2020 thing that
02:14:02.780 you can just like walk around north america with a mask over over your face and you can bind it
02:14:08.260 with like fake ids uh preloaded burner credit cards preloaded burner cell phone uh which i
02:14:15.280 suspect the burner cell phone even though they couldn't like pull up his id i suspect he was
02:14:20.660 still being tracked by it because that's pinging and and even if it's like not tied to your um
02:14:27.180 your personal name and financial information still has a unique identifying number
02:14:31.880 number even if it's like a an anonymous number that if it's paying off like the new york city
02:14:39.340 stingray system and like play all the cell phone towers like they have that and they can
02:14:44.820 vaguely track its position like try to narrow it narrow it down like even but uh like aside from
02:14:53.420 like these really famous cases you almost never see all those modern techniques be employed
02:14:59.760 like consistently together which is like
02:15:04.020 like actually a shame because it's well i a shame from my perspective of like like wanting to see
02:15:13.980 cool shit because because like a lot of this stuff like actually doesn't take an extraordinary
02:15:21.040 extraordinary amount of research to like like develop an advanced technique and then to develop 0.98
02:15:26.920 another and then to develop another like compared to the amount of time that is like
02:15:30.980 exerted in a lot of this stuff like doing it well is not it's not an incredible barrier
02:15:37.020 but um like uh just just going back to the point that we talked about a bunch of times
02:15:46.660 um the level it depends on the level of heat that's on you and the amount of effort commensurate
02:15:52.600 to that level of heat and whether you have that code of honor to escalate by doing things like
02:15:59.080 you know liquidating a member of your gang that that broke it yeah so so macaulay's decision to
02:16:07.000 go back for Wayne Grove um the thing is the thing with this is it's almost certainly the right call
02:16:15.160 at any other point in his career so so right at the end when he's getting out like um he should
02:16:24.880 be able to abandon loose ends like that like um like from a purely calculating strategic perspective
02:16:33.200 right at the end when he's like hanging up for good like he can leave a loose end of like revenge
02:16:38.700 that he didn't didn't get but at any other point in his career like um you see the same like
02:16:45.820 like terror movements like northern ireland where like um for like the ira or the loyalists
02:16:52.440 like the most aggressive amount of violence they employ like is against their own people
02:16:58.980 uh so like when the ira would like kneecap people it was never it was almost never like the ira
02:17:06.380 kneecapping like uh a protestant or like a member of a loyalist paramilitary like that did happen
02:17:13.420 but like the vast vast majority of like this horrific violence of like howard girls being
02:17:18.720 applied to knees is like someone who like collaborated with the police or someone who like
02:17:24.640 um tried to betray them and like um and like and like violate their code or like um the ira would
02:17:34.520 famously like kneecap people for like robbery and joyriding in like catholic arians areas and
02:17:42.280 the reason they did that is because like the first thing you have to establish when you're creating
02:17:47.240 like a little sovereign entity of um people who are committing violence is you have to like very
02:17:53.640 plainly establish that that no no no the authority of this like little entity entity this gang this
02:18:02.460 um terror movement this outfit okay yeah you have to establish the internal discipline but you have
02:18:11.400 to establish it ruthlessly enough that it overrides the external discipline of the law
02:18:16.100 like you have to be exercising enough violence internally that that overwhelms like the
02:18:22.580 calculations of well this will break the law this exposes me to this this exposes me to that
02:18:27.460 no no no no no the law is like the king is far away the emperor is far away and the hills are
02:18:35.240 very very high and you're worried about the other members of your gang and like obeying the code of
02:18:41.420 this this world and that requires extraordinary violence you see this um you see this even in
02:18:48.320 like military outfits that um it's a common trend in like uh east asia in the 20th century when you
02:18:54.200 have these communist movements trying to take over their countries that they gain so much support
02:18:59.320 from the peasantry because the communist movements are willing to to discipline their own members when
02:19:04.620 they steal from the peasants right like Mao Zedong uh had like three rules obey orders and all of
02:19:10.560 your actions do not take anything from the peasants and then turn in everything captured
02:19:14.920 So it can be redistributed. And he enforced this with absolute amounts of intensity.
02:19:22.220 And so if you are a peasant in Jiangsu province in China in like, you know, 1936, and the warlord troops associated with the so-called legitimate nationalist government are constantly looting and stealing and, you know, raping people, and the communists are not, it becomes very obvious who to support. 0.64
02:19:41.180 And this is how they build this massive support from the peasantry in order to take over the country.
02:19:47.740 And following on from this, like communist movements in Korea, in Vietnam, in Cambodia, at the beginning of their underground phase, they would follow the exact same pattern.
02:19:59.540 Massive internal discipline in order to gain the support of the peasants to form a base area to operate against the central government.
02:20:05.940 because the central government is incapable of dictating the same level of discipline
02:20:09.920 because they just don't have that level of cohesion.
02:20:12.840 They don't have that level of control over their own backers.
02:20:15.120 The warlords pledged to them and the gangs of thugs that call themselves troops.
02:20:22.920 Now, Mao Zedong has an amazing quote that
02:20:28.240 guerrilla warfare cannot succeed without the support of the populace.
02:20:32.900 and the most effective way to gain the support of pocket of the populace is via terrorism
02:20:38.500 and terrorism against those that are perceived to be the oppressor
02:20:43.280 the most no no no no yeah i remember this is 1950 this isn't terrorism in like the 2000s sense of
02:20:51.700 like like random violence against the civilian populace this is terrorism in terms of like
02:20:58.080 the 1790s sense of like revolutionary terror that the most effective way to gain the support
02:21:06.340 of the populace is violence not against the regime but against the people such that they
02:21:12.980 fear the communists more more than they fear the regime that the the order of the communists
02:21:21.000 is both
02:21:22.080 is both
02:21:23.980 in the sense that when they already have people
02:21:26.700 over an area of land, yes, then they exact
02:21:29.120 red terror against like, you know, landlords
02:21:30.960 merchants, those perceived to be
02:21:33.240 aligned with the regime 1.00
02:21:34.280 but when they are still the gorillas 1.00
02:21:37.100 in the mountains 0.95
02:21:37.960 they treat the peasants
02:21:41.220 with
02:21:41.540 with a level of
02:21:44.860 you can't really say kindness
02:21:48.700 but fairness in a way that the peasant cannot expect from the so-called legitimate regime 0.95
02:21:55.780 yeah the the rules are incredibly strict but they are incredibly consistent
02:22:02.020 which is like which is like um the the main thing of like hearts and minds people think it's like
02:22:10.680 an ideology oh you have to persuade the local populace no no no no you have to make them
02:22:16.400 feel your rules and your presence more than the other guy and you have to to make the signal of
02:22:24.460 your message that's being communicated by your your rule and your laws and your code 0.52
02:22:29.980 a more powerful signal than the other guys and like that's how the taliban beat the u.s like
02:22:36.800 only a few years ago right like in the areas of the taliban control they were able to enforce a
02:22:42.500 fairly rigid system but consistent system of sharia law that could adjudicate local disputes
02:22:48.480 in a way that you know local pashtun tribes could understand and predict and this made them
02:22:54.980 legitimate to these people in a way that administration or whatever could never be
02:23:01.100 did you ever hear the story of um of the taliban's land registry system
02:23:08.380 uh i i have but um let's talk about it anyway for the benefit of the viewer all right so
02:23:17.820 so if you are like a business person in afghanistan throughout the u.s occupation
02:23:23.820 and like the karzai government uh basically at any moment your title to your land can be taken
02:23:32.620 from you by any one of these like warlords thugs gangs that have like some influence in the
02:23:37.640 government and like uh a lot of these warlords were receiving liberal like um like plastic bins
02:23:47.240 like you'd use to move into like a university dorm they were receiving those bins filled with
02:23:54.020 cash that are being flowed out to them by by uh the cia and stuff and yet in spite of receiving
02:24:00.300 that money they were corrupt as hell and this is how they how they fund themselves and they would
02:24:06.840 just steal land from people like if you were operating a shop in the city and like owned your 0.60
02:24:14.440 business they come and say no you don't own that you're paying rent to us or no you don't own that
02:24:19.940 we're kicking you out and and my buddy's setting up the coffee shop now and you could do nothing
02:24:27.000 because they they'd shoot you if you're resisted too aggressively but like they probably didn't
02:24:33.620 even have to shoot you because the cops would enforce their title title to it with like a bribe
02:24:40.140 which is this is how like most of the third wall operates like in india um people the first thing
02:24:47.460 you do if you buy land in india is you build a massive like 10 foot high wall around your
02:24:53.560 property because otherwise your neighbor will build the wall around their property and put it
02:24:59.040 like, an extra five feet into your property, and you're never getting that five feet back.
02:25:04.100 Like, you'd have to, like, fight to the courts through, like, these corrupt courts,
02:25:09.640 bribing your own lawyer, bribing their lawyer, bribing the judge, bribing the bailiff,
02:25:14.740 bribing the cop who has to enforce the court, or at the end of it,
02:25:18.680 all, and at the end of it, you'd be spending more money than the land itself is worth.
02:25:22.660 uh so this is like the system that predominated in af afghanistan like even worse where people
02:25:29.560 would just come and steal like your title to your land like by brute force and what the taliban did 0.67
02:25:36.320 is they started maintaining their own registry of all the lands in the regions they're like trying 0.79
02:25:42.440 to take over and so anything like this happened sure you could try to fight through like the
02:25:50.520 karzai government's courts or you could complain to the americans americans and like have to and
02:25:56.740 get brushed off or have to pay like thousands of dollars in bribes to like fight for this like
02:26:02.420 piece of land that's worth six hundred dollars or you could go to the taliban and they do it for
02:26:08.420 free and they maintain it got to the point that the taliban had the most complete record of all
02:26:15.940 the lands in afghanistan and would like completely enforce it for free but as soon as that's the
02:26:24.360 case soon as like you're depending on the taliban for that you're depending on the taliban for
02:26:28.760 everything like you're like like you need the taliban to to win or you're losing your property
02:26:35.720 are you or like um so the taliban won't french is your connection to them as a parallel government
02:26:41.920 Right. And like Taliban, like is Pashto for like students. Right. Like in Afghanistan, the Taliban are perceived as the intellectuals, as the people with the state capacity to centralize, not necessarily modernize, but to rule the country under a consistent value system that like the Northern Alliance Coalition can never maintain.
02:27:04.180 Yeah, they're perceived as like highly idealistic, idealistic and like principled.
02:27:08.960 right and it's genuinely an elite human capital movement in the sense that the
02:27:13.700 senior taliban leader are highly studied people people have spent most of their life schooling
02:27:18.800 in islamic law which has had thousands of years to work out uh the you know the sort of edge cases
02:27:25.740 that might arise in this part of the world yeah and it's not it it's not like um western law
02:27:34.260 where like if you meet a constitutional lawyer you're sit 90 nine times out of 10 you're meeting
02:27:40.840 someone whose job it is to undermine your constitutional rights but if you meet a
02:27:45.300 constitutional lawyer nine times out of 10 that person is like part of advocacy groups who are
02:27:51.100 like could not be more hostile to the original vision of the founder and could not be more
02:27:56.260 hostile to like your property rights and and like the processes as it's supposed to work
02:28:02.480 whereas
02:28:03.900 there's a trend where you see
02:28:07.040 constitutional lawyers in the US who
02:28:08.880 their entire goal
02:28:10.780 is some
02:28:12.780 20th century ideological
02:28:14.760 highly egalitarian
02:28:16.080 leveling and their
02:28:18.920 usage of the constitution is purely
02:28:21.060 to find
02:28:22.840 loopholes to eventually scrape
02:28:25.080 together evidence for a case
02:28:27.220 that will
02:28:29.080 erode 1.00
02:28:30.080 previously assumed protections but the the taliban are genuine fundamentalists 1.00
02:28:34.320 from like the 600s right like these these people
02:28:37.640 take every word literally imagine if america had a had a scholarly movement that wanted to
02:28:48.560 enforce the original founder's vision of the constitution with the power of life and death
02:28:53.300 yeah what the tea party it's like a dreamt of true right the tea party larped at this but they
02:29:02.160 could never aspire to taking it as seriously as the taliban did ah american needs it american 0.74
02:29:07.840 needs it yeah yeah admire them yeah admire yeah admire anyone who who will control the street
02:29:15.420 on rollerblades right like there's a reason why they were able to defeat an enemy that outspent
02:29:20.080 them a hundred and a hundred thousand to one probably the most lopsided spending to outcome
02:29:26.440 ratio in human history yeah no it's a it's a truly extraordinary case study and the fact that like 1.00
02:29:35.080 like uh the average american still treats the the taliban is like uh these idiots in caves
02:29:43.300 as opposed to like this very coherent, like, like philosophical ethos and like very powerful, powerful intellectual movement is like really a tragedy of the American imagination. 0.89
02:29:58.520 You slightly overestimate the Taliban as well, because the Taliban have also today, you know, they've won, but they're still not really that in control of like half the country.
02:30:11.360 They have nominal control, but they're unable to make certain local power brokers that flipped to the Taliban side completely comply with their vision of how to run the country.
02:30:22.900 And that's okay, because it's almost a feudal system where there's an oath, a bond between the ruler and the vassal, in which the vassal does have some leeway to run his territory as he sees fit in return for flipping in the first place.
02:30:42.500 but um it's not this monolithic block that uh certain folks on the right like to like to say
02:30:51.380 that the taliban is it is still a very messed up country yeah no the the strength of the taliban
02:30:58.580 was not like any like technological or military reality and not even like an organizational 0.74
02:31:05.300 reality it was like a a strength of their ethos which like is very threatening to like like most
02:31:15.500 westerns to admit that like like uh they won because they're like more committed to their
02:31:21.360 morality and like like believed it whereas like none of the people they were fighting against
02:31:26.900 did believe it they simply cared more about victory yes that they were and they won through
02:31:33.860 the power of friendship and will this only works against an empire that really doesn't care though
02:31:42.440 it would not have worked against caesar it would not have worked against caesar but caesar did
02:31:49.000 did care and like caesar is very much the exception where he was one man whose will like
02:31:55.740 like moved the wheel of history you know he was one man who's like will was so powerful
02:32:02.320 It would not have worked against any Roman because any Roman would have just sold every would have just killed like the adult fighting male population and then sold everyone else into slavery.
02:32:13.260 rome does struggle with a lot of different stuff like this like they were they were struggling 0.71
02:32:20.900 against the judeans for like years until like emperor hadrian uh settled it and then they
02:32:27.900 were struggling against the the germans and like various various other factual powers for like
02:32:34.780 centuries after that uh the germans are able to get battles against against rome on many and
02:32:42.160 many an occasion right like you you have to be able to generate that amount of combat power
02:32:46.740 right right no but uh but like you see similar stuff in like the the revolution in russia you
02:32:59.600 see similar stuff in are you familiar with the revolutions in like the 1920s and 1930s in central
02:33:06.520 asia like right next to afghanistan where muslim tribesmen rise up against the new soviet power
02:33:12.960 and are absolutely crushed right yeah it's a i think enver pasha out of all people like dies
02:33:22.800 leading the bazmachi revolt oh i am unfamiliar with this one entirely i don't i don't know
02:33:30.140 central asian history that well you are the you are the universal expert oh no okay so
02:33:36.120 uh so between like the end of the russian civil war in the 1930s and like what what russia calls
02:33:42.800 like turkestan but today we uh this is like most of like central asia between like um kazakhstan
02:33:50.060 uzbekistan turkestan um and so the during the russian civil war you have autonomous turkestani
02:33:59.260 Muslim political movements that create a sort of like pseudo-sovereign state, and they massacre
02:34:06.240 Russians and Bolshevik supporters. But when the Reds gain control of Russia itself, they turn 0.87
02:34:14.920 their attention onto Central Asia and deploy fairly significant forces to just absolutely crush these 0.68
02:34:20.800 people. The Turkestani resistance was not really fighting a guerrilla war in the sense of
02:34:31.600 Afghanistan today. They were fighting in a more conventional sense. And they were actually led
02:34:37.100 by Enver Pasha, the former minister of war of the Ottoman Empire, and one of the key architects
02:34:42.280 of the Armenian genocide. So he arrives in Bukhara. He says that he's going to join the
02:34:48.560 soviet army to to assist in putting down this rebellion then he defects immediately to the 0.92
02:34:55.780 to the muslims um he calls for jihad assembles a fairly sizable army but uh the soviets just
02:35:04.740 end up committing so many reinforcements into the region um securing all the major urban centers
02:35:10.120 interning hostile populations and by the 1930s the central asia is largely pacified
02:35:17.980 like this movement is just crushed
02:35:20.720 there's an interesting
02:35:26.580 what if there of
02:35:28.520 what if they waited until like
02:35:30.600 3941
02:35:32.880 what if they held out
02:35:34.920 until like Barbarossa
02:35:36.720 yeah exactly
02:35:39.080 because like this is a big
02:35:41.000 thing of like people
02:35:42.760 there's a
02:35:45.200 debate of whether there's like
02:35:46.640 historical moments or not but but basically there are all these moments where the energy rises and
02:35:54.260 like enough things are happening elsewhere in the world this is the mistake people make they always
02:36:00.180 try to wait to see what will happen before they like they like commit their plans like most people
02:36:07.740 would not think to most people like in 2020 would not think to to implement their ideological plan
02:36:16.620 because they're waiting to see, well, what's going to happen?
02:36:18.700 I want to know what's going to happen before I do X or Y.
02:36:22.120 But it's actually that moment where you're, like,
02:36:24.280 wondering what's going to happen, that, like, that's the opening.
02:36:28.480 Because, like, that's when all everyone else's forces are committed
02:36:33.880 and there's actually real tension in the air
02:36:35.520 and there's actually real weakness on all sides. 0.67
02:36:40.140 That, like, you know, a bully in Turkestan.
02:36:44.000 There are moments in history where, you know, decades happen.
02:36:46.620 and yes exactly movements can make large impacts i i personally think that the central asian
02:36:52.520 resistance was it didn't really have a chance because it was crushed like an entire decade
02:36:57.400 before world war ii started the soviets just had overwhelming numbers of men and material and they
02:37:02.920 were led by the military genius uh marshal mikhail frunz so uh i don't think they really had a chance
02:37:10.940 there but yeah no but there there's a dynamic there of like like the time you don't want to
02:37:21.800 launch rebellion is when like everything else is at peace
02:37:25.920 like you don't want to the white movement during the russian civil war would probably be able to 0.54
02:37:32.700 hold out longer which is why they launched their rebellion in the first place
02:37:35.660 they were very wrong on that and miscalculated the speed of the bolshevik victory and the whites
02:37:44.760 were fairly poorly coordinated right if these if these central asian forces had joined up with
02:37:48.860 the whites and then they had fought under a semblance of unity with command of command they
02:37:52.680 might have even stood a chance but um there just wasn't the level of cohesion and coordination for
02:37:58.200 well the whites there's a lot of it even with like the absolute like organizational mess that
02:38:05.500 was like the white resistance to the soviet to the reds like uh there still were a lot of like
02:38:12.900 near run moments in the course of course of the russian civil civil war that's like well if this
02:38:20.680 had happened or this had happened like um it's i'm always very suspicious of it of like inevitability
02:38:31.080 in history because like we know from like many examples like um like waterloo or alicia or like
02:38:40.080 there are these famous battles where it's just so painfully obvious ellie the like history was like
02:38:46.840 a coin flip like balancing on its side momentarily from from going one way or the other waterloo
02:38:53.960 was not a coin flip even if napoleon had managed to smash wellington and blucher blucher there were
02:38:59.720 like five more coalition armies converging on france out and they had napoleon outnumbered
02:39:04.540 three to one like schwarzenberg uh and kutuzov and detoli alone like had something like 400 000
02:39:13.120 men converging on france uh even if like napoleon had won waterloo as masterfully as he did like
02:39:20.300 rivoli right it would have still been over huh well that's the case because because napoleon was
02:39:31.500 like not the napoleon of a rivoli at that point like napoleon was like like keeling over of like
02:39:37.820 hernias and like actually had to be issued like opioids in the middle of the battle of waterloo
02:39:42.880 right he was feeling over his greatest moments of tactical brilliance were during the campaign
02:39:50.060 in france during the sixth coalition right at the end of his reign he was still capable yeah and
02:39:55.380 that's the well that's the thing like like he's drawing everything out of himself for that moment
02:40:01.360 you know it's like it's like your skill as an essayist or as or as a writer like um it all
02:40:09.160 comes out when you're like right at the deadline of wow i can actually do like really impressive
02:40:13.560 work when i'm under the gun but the thing is like the like if he was at peak form and like did push
02:40:22.760 himself to 110 10 percent like if he was young napoleon at the bowel waterloo and like had all
02:40:32.200 those armies converging on him and then pushed himself to 110 percent was having all those
02:40:37.040 brilliancies like you know might not have turned out to be like a french victory but the negotiated
02:40:45.520 terms might have left him on the throne remember that the okay because he he is using a force that
02:40:54.900 is much more effective at operational concentration and staff work than his opponents but like by the
02:41:00.620 time of waterloo everyone has adapted to these things everyone else is capable of modern staff
02:41:06.440 were capable of organizing and marching in course they have high levels of artillery density they
02:41:11.740 have more cavalry for recon and screening right all the operational organizational advantages
02:41:17.940 of like you know 1802 are gone uh yes but i i still think like he probably from that situation
02:41:31.440 if like waterloo had been a decisive victory i think he would have been in a a position that he
02:41:37.800 could could if not like reforge his empire at least reforge france to a point where it's not
02:41:44.140 decisive victories of the same scale in order yeah which he like did consistently like like
02:41:51.240 right up right up tall his last campaign that he was like having these like really decisive
02:41:58.120 of impressive engagements defending
02:42:00.140 terrorists, but it was just overwhelmed
02:42:02.360 by the end of it.
02:42:04.700 And I'm saying the numerical advantage
02:42:06.180 that the Sevens Coalition had
02:42:07.500 is exactly the same, right?
02:42:09.600 If you look at a map
02:42:12.480 of the Sevens Coalition,
02:42:14.740 this is like
02:42:15.360 two-thirds of the entire planet
02:42:17.620 that are committed against him.
02:42:21.560 There, sir.
02:42:24.900 But there's
02:42:26.180 a lot of
02:42:28.120 But anyway, we are discussing Michael Mann's heat set in the 1990s, not not Afghanistan in the in the 2010s, not.
02:42:40.620 Right. All right. Fair enough. Fair enough.
02:42:42.360 And not my mind as much as Napoleon can devour us quoting.
02:42:48.100 My mind is drifting to Napoleon because what the president has quoted in the last day.
02:42:53.460 oh yes yes no he he listens to our podcast that quote appears that quote will appear in the
02:43:01.500 introduction to the podcast cast so that i i maintain that you heard it from me first but
02:43:10.900 michael man's heat the
02:43:15.580 the cultural impact of this film let's let's go to that that finally we're almost at the
02:43:25.020 we're beyond the two and a half hour mark let's have a final half hour on the cultural impact
02:43:30.980 sure so michael mann's heat really redefines like what action cinema is like uh
02:43:41.440 like michael mann's films uh obviously he'll do collateral after this and he'll do a series
02:43:48.720 of films he did one black hat that i want to see that's supposed to be like a complete
02:43:53.140 failed film but it's supposed to be like a 2010 cyber filler where like um
02:43:58.360 or like uh thor chris hemsworth is like playing a hacker which is like people found that
02:44:06.400 unbelievable in like 2015 whereas now with like the gym bro culture and stuff and like uh
02:44:13.080 the look smacking maxing like hack culture the idea of someone would look like chris hemsworth
02:44:18.960 and be like a programmer nerd is like not as absurd today but um but that's what widely
02:44:29.060 considered a filth fail film but he develops his style starting with heat and like developing it
02:44:35.680 throughout the the 2000s and 2010s like this ultra realistic um tactical style that is now
02:44:45.100 everywhere like uh sicario uh the the styling of sicario is very much drawn precisely from heat
02:44:54.320 um you see this in action um it's not a ripoff but uh an homage to heat so is um the opening
02:45:01.300 of like the dark night yeah uh dark night night um i i was always grumpy at because of like cook
02:45:11.640 a lot of like the visual markers of heat and then paired it with like a robbery that makes exactly
02:45:17.160 zero sense and the action sequence that makes exactly zero sense like like the magic of heat
02:45:21.980 heat is that like every element in it everything that's done like makes sense from a tactical
02:45:29.200 operational perspective like like you could carry out those exact robberies in those exact times
02:45:35.380 and like aside from like a few minor tweaks for your specific scenario like all those tactics
02:45:41.960 would work the dark knight like none of that opening action sequence makes sense at all
02:45:47.900 it's just like is it aping the visual style which like i was for the sake of technical right like
02:45:54.220 uh yeah the masks the guns but but the the plan does not hold up to any scrutiny there's no
02:46:02.580 redundancy uh there's no room for error and i mean the plan is your guys shoot each other so
02:46:08.340 if you had that level of trust to be uh to work with at the very beginning it would have never
02:46:13.680 even have gone off yeah exactly but uh the but we see this style like has percolated
02:46:23.340 through and now like you have stuff like like john wick which is like aching the the attention
02:46:31.060 to detail of the gunfighting that we first saw in heat but in like you know john wick is basically
02:46:37.280 a super pack hero whose magical power is like gun fu it's got worse over time but there were a number
02:46:46.380 of original fights that i think were fairly well done in the sense that you did not think that john
02:46:52.340 wick was like automatically going to prevail and that he was genuinely at a disadvantage at some
02:46:56.840 points it's since gone off the rails but part of the appeal of john wick 1 was that you could feel
02:47:03.900 that he was in some danger at some points yeah john wick 1 is a genuinely like good grounded
02:47:10.160 action film and like the world that they invent like does not feel like yeah it hasn't gone insane
02:47:18.780 yet the point where you think that every individual human is probably a member of at
02:47:24.900 least three different assassin societies by the end of John Wick 4 yeah no the John Wick chapter
02:47:32.080 two actually is the most interesting of them because it's the most oh it's the point where
02:47:37.860 it gets the most elaborate while still being grounded and realistic so John Wick 2 there's
02:47:44.400 sequence where we see um someone take out a hit hit and they use a um they use like a 90s early
02:47:56.780 2000s flip phone and john wick is set in the modern day like john wick is set with modern
02:48:02.260 technology and stuff but they use this like purposely archaic flip phone to send like a 0.93
02:48:07.580 pager message to to a like central organization where these like patu like like women who like 1.00
02:48:19.840 have obviously been through several prisons are using like hype writers and commodore 64s 1.00
02:48:26.080 to like type out the request and then sending sending this like hype writer message putting
02:48:33.520 the like pneumatic tube and sending it elsewhere where it's being sent out through like a commodore
02:48:39.560 64 and then this is getting set out sent out like through an array of like agers like this
02:48:46.620 completely hacked together system to like the assassins to take out this person and like
02:48:54.780 basically people at home who are watching this like i think this is might have broken suspension
02:49:03.220 of disbelief for them that that a lot of people are like what the hell is this like have we gone
02:49:07.440 into like terry gilliams brazil like is this set somewhere in the 20th century what other heavily
02:49:12.960 armed organization relied heavily on pagers in the last few years exactly it's like no this is
02:49:20.460 actually genius because they're using all these archaic systems of technology to operate this
02:49:26.920 operationally complex complex system with like all this information that has to be generated
02:49:32.900 that is not cannot leak because it's inherently set up in these archaic systems that aren't
02:49:41.340 producing a digital signature don't have this background ground leak um and as we all know
02:49:49.060 hezbollah was using pagers pagers now some people have speculated that um the pagers that the that
02:49:58.440 Israel did a supply system, a logistical chain attack on, like, they managed to slip, yeah, 0.84
02:50:12.960 supply chain attack, perfect. 0.95
02:50:15.940 They managed to slip, some people were thinking it was the batteries and solstice was exploding,
02:50:22.040 but I can pretty much guarantee you that they had actually managed to slip some, like,
02:50:26.520 plastic explosive or like uh yeah you can look up um battery explosions that happen like um
02:50:36.000 people operating on like cell phones and and stuff in in like cell phone repair places and
02:50:44.060 what they look like is they look they like eject a lot of fire like you can burn yourself like
02:50:49.620 fairly seriously but like there isn't shrapnel damage from it like uh battery explosions just
02:50:56.520 like like in spite of all the complex like uh minerals and and elements that go into it they
02:51:05.040 basically like deflagrate like they they burn off rather than a concussive device exactly and
02:51:14.700 and so the supply chain attack they had to have gone like plastic explosive into these which um
02:51:22.360 lesson for you kids at home do not do a signal supplier for like your opsec devices like like
02:51:29.740 track down like junky junky like use items like buy them onesie onesie twosie and then like
02:51:38.000 like work them together like um you should not have an off-the-shelf solution
02:51:44.380 to like your archaic worker work around optimal off opsec device um this is one of the things
02:51:53.440 with like privacy phones and whatnot with hardware hardware switches that like yeah that
02:51:58.720 looks very good but this is specifically being marketed as a privacy phone with a hardware
02:52:03.360 switch and whatnot so there's like like good reason to spec that if it's being marketed that
02:52:10.000 way that this is like a choke point first fly chain hack or like it's compromised and so
02:52:15.120 some other way um this is one of the things where um
02:52:19.880 the cell phones that um i've known a lot of um
02:52:26.720 a lot of like adventurers and various like um like paranoid like paramilitary types to use
02:52:35.900 are not like dedicated privacy phones but what they'll use is they'll get get a cell phone
02:52:41.460 designed for like ems that has hot swappable batteries and then just like keep the batteries
02:52:47.540 out and charged until the exact moment they want to use the cell phone or they'll um if they want
02:52:54.820 to use applications like they want a ballistic calculator they want a um specific mapping soft
02:53:01.980 software like um what you can do is you can take take like a commercial cell phone in that it like
02:53:09.740 has a slot for a um for a micro sd card that you can like extend it to like terabytes of information
02:53:17.380 of storage and what they'll do is they'll take it in and as soon as they have all the all the
02:53:22.920 data they want on it they will have like the bluetooth the sms uh uh all the systems that
02:53:32.880 they're not emitting before the moment that they choose to start emitting yeah they'll have all
02:53:39.260 those disabled so that this device that is like like your cell phone even if you have it on
02:53:46.300 airplane mode and it's like a true airplane mode like it's not compromised and so like
02:53:50.480 it's still recording all the gps signals that it receives like um like the way gps works is
02:53:57.560 satellites are constantly emitting a signal and triangulating that your gps device computes where
02:54:04.600 it is on the globe like uh your your garmin gps unit is not like sending a signal to the satellites
02:54:11.420 or anything that the satellites are computing where you are the the on the device itself they're
02:54:17.320 competing where it is.
02:54:19.000 Are you talking about, like, inertial navigation?
02:54:21.160 Pardon?
02:54:22.060 Are you talking about, like, an inertial navigation unit?
02:54:25.740 No, no, no.
02:54:28.300 Like, a basic GPS unit, like, does not have a,
02:54:33.680 is not emitting a signal that pings off the satellite.
02:54:37.540 What it's doing is it's calculating where it is
02:54:41.440 based on the signals the satellites are emitting out.
02:54:45.140 Yeah, it's a passive receiver, right?
02:54:46.860 like yes exactly so so basically if your cell phone in any way chip or form can transmit as
02:54:56.660 a signal or if it goes back on wi-fi or what it will do is you turn the off airplane mode
02:55:03.760 mode the first packet it sends is all the gps locations you had um wherever you you were while
02:55:14.200 on airplane mode so like there's no there's no magical off switch that turns off gps
02:55:20.160 gps tracking if you want to use like a cell phone for gps in like an ops operationally secure
02:55:28.200 environment but you have to use you have to disable those receivers sorry not the receivers
02:55:33.300 you have to disable the like transmitters and then you have to like destroy the cell phone at
02:55:38.740 the end of it because as soon as it touches the internet that packet is going to google with all
02:55:43.580 the gps location on it like you cannot use you basically cannot have an operational like
02:55:50.880 like cell phone with like your ballistic application and your gps and your gps on there
02:55:58.980 and like any other applications you want and then use it as like a cell phone or device ever again
02:56:04.160 because all that information is going out in a second completely compromised right like burners
02:56:09.180 exist for a reason yeah you have to you have to burn that that device at the end of the operation
02:56:16.480 so that that packet of information dies on the device but um but if you
02:56:24.880 but basically if you like keep a cell phone like like a hot swapable well batteries so that it's
02:56:35.760 never powered or like keep it in a faraday bag like a faraday bag blocks it from even receiving
02:56:42.020 the gps information so theoretically if it's like turned off or or battery out in a faraday bag
02:56:49.640 uh that is a complete black box from when it enters the faraday bag to when it leaves it
02:56:56.180 like um it'll appear again on whatever systems it goes on the second it comes out of the faraday
02:57:05.740 bag and pings them again but the intermittent time it doesn't even know where it is
02:57:10.860 oh okay so a faraday cage is a solution used by an individual or organization that does not
02:57:20.780 have actual root control over their electronics ideally you bring something relatively primitive
02:57:26.760 that you actually have control over uh yeah so that would be the the ideal situation
02:57:35.580 If you have, like, true root control, however, it's always questionable, like, whether even if you do, that there haven't been, like, backdoors installed in some of the software that you use.
02:57:53.880 So there were, there have been like various attacks on like Russian or Ukrainian positions based off of, as far as I know, like software compromises that, that on the, on paper, they had gone through and like removed various access points, but it had been compromised some other way along the, along the line.
02:58:21.020 oh right like these zero day hacks that have been built in from the very beginning just waiting to
02:58:26.960 be activated by a security service yeah which is why like i'm assuming that like even like
02:58:34.680 like even a very sophisticated person listening to this podcast like uh like you know if you're
02:58:42.420 like actually special forces listening to this podcast like if you actually like went through
02:58:47.400 green beret school and you want to like operate on your own like like you're going row you're
02:58:54.120 you want to expose the secrets of metal gear you know you're probably not a genius
02:59:00.400 genius hacker or like have access to one who can like who could like make it truly secure
02:59:06.980 or and even then like they might get zero date so what i'm proposing is instead of a hacker it's
02:59:13.720 about the or it's it's about control on a national level right you need in you need a tech ecosystem
02:59:20.780 on the scale of like the u.s software industry or the chinese software industry to create so what
02:59:27.940 you do if you don't so what you do if you don't have that is you is you hard solve that problem
02:59:38.340 by controlling, by fully controlling, like, the electronic emissions
02:59:43.760 and, like, the physical limitations of the device.
02:59:47.620 So it's not, oh, I'm trusting the software.
02:59:49.920 It's, no, I have physically disabled the hardware that would allow it to transmit it.
02:59:56.300 So as soon as, like, the mapping software, the ballistics calculator,
03:00:03.700 the whatever the um you know the often it is often it is about just confiscating the phones
03:00:13.160 because what you saw in like the opening scale the opening days of like the russia ukraine war
03:00:18.380 is that like soldiers would take selfies of themselves in their unit like training in like
03:00:23.160 the gym of some school that was commandeered and then 15 minutes later the building would be hit by 0.98
03:00:29.080 an Iskander
03:00:30.560 ballistic missile.
03:00:33.760 Absolutely. At an organizational level.
03:00:35.920 Everyone away from their phones.
03:00:38.720 At an organizational
03:00:39.600 level, yeah, exactly.
03:00:41.380 You do that. But for
03:00:43.240 an individual or small
03:00:45.460 unit where it's
03:00:47.440 like, you need a cell
03:00:49.480 phone because that's
03:00:50.780 basically one of
03:00:53.500 the most useful emergency
03:00:55.100 contact systems.
03:00:56.480 like even even like marines in afghanistan when their radios didn't work would fall back to the
03:01:03.520 afghani flight salsas system and and you need like the saturated like you basically want a like
03:01:14.520 gps unit ballistic calculator all this stuff which is ruinously expensive if you're not doing
03:01:20.600 if you're if you don't have the budget to like buy these all separate as like dedicated devices
03:01:27.160 so by hard disabling the self the receivers within the cell phone and then like like using
03:01:37.340 i don't know tape or whatever to to like designate no this device never like gets connected again
03:01:45.920 and it's been disabled until it can never get connected again,
03:01:48.660 and it must be destroyed at this point.
03:01:52.300 Or maintaining your emergency burner cell phone in a Faraday cage
03:01:57.740 so that it can't be tracked by controlling the physical limitations of the device
03:02:03.520 and having a doctrine and a tempo of how you're going to be physically restricted.
03:02:10.760 You can basically replicate the level of emission discipline and control that these complete environment governments are creating for yourself or your small unit.
03:02:35.240 You can exercise that level of control over your emissions and what's tracking you very directly by physically eliminating and pursuing a doctrine of physical limitation.
03:02:51.520 Within a certain set of constraints, yes.
03:02:53.980 That is the most cost-effective solution on a small unit level if you don't have the resources to subvert these systems at a higher one.
03:03:05.240 And that has the extreme advantage of, it's actually fairly simple.
03:03:13.560 Like, you know, you could write down the full doctrine that you need in a way that's, like, readable to, like, a non-technical person in, like, two pages.
03:03:25.920 Or, like, a reasonably intelligent non-technical person.
03:03:28.620 Like, you don't have to, like, you don't have to learn anything more complex than what is a signal, what are the types of signals that are transmitted, what is the type of information that's recorded.
03:03:42.460 Well, you can convey the information. Conveying the mindset about absolute emissions control is a lot harder, right?
03:03:48.740 Like, for example, in the U.S. community, right, like, emissions control has been, like, a thing for decades because that is how you prevent your ship from being detected by, like, a hostile Elant aircraft.
03:03:58.000 But a lot of times when you drill for emissions control and you tell, you know, everyone we're going to emissions control and then you have a third party contractor actually test for emissions, there are still emissions coming from this or that device that have that has been mistakenly or confusedly or just not identified as a possible emitting source.
03:04:19.420 And then the ship is locatable anyways. Right. The level of discipline you need is more important than the actual knowledge.
03:04:25.020 yes exactly uh the the chief petty officer who put up her who set up a starlink on a u.s destroyer
03:04:34.860 because she wanted to watch her soap operas i think it was a an electoral combat ship not a
03:04:39.960 not a destroyer but yeah it was ridiculous yeah i i'm not a navy person i don't know the ship
03:04:46.960 classifications but yeah and they were like they were in the indian ocean like they weren't like
03:04:52.140 close to home somewhere where it really doesn't matter like this this is occurring like
03:04:58.180 this is occurring like like in an operational theater this is compromised
03:05:07.000 not strictly at war during wartime right like if they were doing it in like the red sea like
03:05:14.720 while under who's the missile attack that would be one thing but in the central pacific uh it's
03:05:19.920 not exactly that big of a deal in peacetime
03:05:23.300 true true but that's the other thing that like um
03:05:30.800 this is where it's like very important to like if you're trying to hide from a surveillance
03:05:38.400 technology to at least get like a very crappy version of that surveillance technology and
03:05:44.480 apply it to yourself right it's having the like it's having the discipline to do these like that
03:05:49.860 this sort of backdoor penetration testing constantly and apply those who are found wanting
03:05:55.520 why like actual night vision that you would use to like operate entry levels like three thousand
03:06:05.440 dollars for an for psv 14 or like um actual ir that you could use in the field is like thousands
03:06:13.400 and thousands of dollars but like a really crappy digital version of like night vision or ir that's
03:06:20.740 like a few hundred bucks from china you can't use it like like it won't be functional in the field
03:06:27.960 but you can quick check whether like your clothing glows under ir and like you're it's
03:06:36.520 riddled with like fabric brighteners or you can quick check it's the most basic thing but a lot
03:06:41.160 of organizations don't really have like a red team that is dedicated towards thinking of what
03:06:48.580 the enemy will likely do to them yeah and like like you don't need like full um full red cell
03:06:57.000 you don't need um more shanko like actually sneaking up and like and like soft torturing
03:07:04.940 your secrets out of like hostages that he's taken like the insane stuff they did in the 80s
03:07:10.480 You just need, like, someone who's, like, going to go through and check.
03:07:19.100 So I worked at a Fortune 500 at one point.
03:07:23.860 One point that just had, like, corporate secrets of their clients.
03:07:28.480 Like, not even big corporate secrets.
03:07:30.120 Just, like, their requests, some information.
03:07:33.320 But it was selling, like, a technical solution.
03:07:38.940 And one of the things that our instructor would do is he would consistently go around and if we left our laptop open, he would like go into the hotkeys and change them so that like some basic command would like load up jokes and stuff and like really screw with us and like make it a pain to hunt down what he did.
03:08:08.940 One of the ones was he'd take, was he'd rearrange our folders, create a screen capture of it, set the screen capture to the background, and then remove all our folders from, like, the desktop.
03:08:22.920 So that you'd go in and you'd be trying to click your folders forever and there's, like, there's not a folder there.
03:08:28.180 There's an image of a folder buried in the image of, like, the desktop background, and, like, would screw with us for this, like, twisted little stuff.
03:08:41.520 But the thing that this drilled into us was the second you get up from your laptop, you hit Windows L and walk the screen again because he's going to come along and share with you.
03:08:53.540 But the thing is, that's, like, vitally, was vitally important for our organization because if we're just leaving, like, our laptops and our desktops, like, logged in, anyone could have walked up, like, stolen information on our clients and, like, probably could have sold that for, like, some value.
03:09:15.800 like uh well especially like software and and stuff um if you know you're if you know of a
03:09:24.440 company that's like for example has admitted to like one of their IT guys or one of their
03:09:31.760 their people like admits that they are breaking a copyright in some way on their software
03:09:37.980 software their uh windows adobe all those have like extensive programs to like financially
03:09:48.560 compensate whistleblowers who report that their company is violating violating windows copyright
03:09:56.320 or adobe pop topy right whatnot and they will like and they will like they'll pay you like
03:10:03.940 six figures to rat out your company if it's large enough or the scale is large enough and they will
03:10:09.440 like sue them for seven figures figures for like breaking their copyright and scurrying them over
03:10:16.420 and you know someone might admit that to us and look and like we're supposed to like not
03:10:24.540 we're supposed to like respect our clients interest and stuff but like information like
03:10:32.460 that like flies around on corporate computers that like that's a simple example there's also
03:10:38.580 like international corporate espionage like china is trying to steal steal secrets and stuff and
03:10:44.800 like this was just like a private company protecting its clients information that like
03:10:50.240 we had this this intensive culture of um of like red team testing that like like all our
03:10:59.840 instructors and stuff would would screw with us if we left our if we left our laptops and
03:11:07.540 and secure it and like really trolled into us no no no no no you lock your laptop every time
03:11:14.240 you step away from it i still do this like in my own house of compromised information from this
03:11:19.560 exact source within fairly recent memory because if they didn't and they were doing this entirely
03:11:24.700 proactively that's that's a pretty impressive culture yeah no this was this had started with
03:11:31.220 like one guy who would do this i'm not sure if like they were doing this at other offices
03:11:36.000 other offices as well but this guy like part of it was he he enjoyed screwing with us but like
03:11:42.940 this was a very impressive cultural thing and then like i noticed like organizations that had
03:11:50.040 way more secure information had nothing of the sort we're not doing anything like this and
03:11:56.960 and like you need that kind of like like sort of pranking pranking culture like you need to
03:12:04.760 be tracking down people who are like breaking breaking security or breaking opsuck in a way
03:12:10.820 like like um there is no unit in the modern us multi who when they as far as i know that what
03:12:18.860 or the canadian military or the british military that when they go on exercise
03:12:23.540 you know there's a sergeant or a warrant officer who's just there tracking their movements via
03:12:32.060 electronic emissions like there's no one there that's like oh your cell phone isn't secure
03:12:37.180 it's been emitting it's actually a fairly common thing to do on exercises for one side to attempt
03:12:43.400 to track the opposing force
03:12:45.540 in a drill
03:12:46.280 by their omissions. It's common
03:12:49.440 practice.
03:12:51.400 It might be relatively common,
03:12:55.380 but I didn't see
03:12:57.460 it on, like,
03:12:58.340 I haven't seen it on, like,
03:13:01.500 minor exercises I've
03:13:03.360 never heard of.
03:13:04.340 No offense, but you were on the Canadian side.
03:13:08.660 Okay. 0.99
03:13:10.680 This is not the most forward-thinking force
03:13:13.180 this is true this is true but uh but like that should be standard that like
03:13:21.260 that like if your troops have their cell phone on them that better be in a faraday bag
03:13:28.640 your cell phone is not on you right this is at in 2025 i can guarantee like your platoon sergeant
03:13:39.100 will not let you deploy with your cell phone
03:13:41.180 in your bag
03:13:42.240 into a combat theater.
03:13:46.760 I have heard many
03:13:48.480 mushy stories.
03:13:49.820 It might be 2025
03:13:51.920 that this has changed
03:13:54.400 that aggressively, but
03:13:56.120 you know, cell phones
03:13:58.520 are still in prisons.
03:13:59.700 There are still smuggled cell phones
03:14:02.320 in prisons that people are doing all kinds of stuff.
03:14:04.980 Right, but that is because
03:14:06.460 a guard or some
03:14:08.360 person has been compromised.
03:14:13.880 Uh,
03:14:14.600 yes,
03:14:16.920 but I wouldn't be shocked if, like, people were
03:14:18.480 smuggling, like, their cell phones,
03:14:21.340 their cell phones into all kinds of places
03:14:24.860 operationally that they shouldn't be.
03:14:28.160 All right.
03:14:28.480 I mean, there will always be some exceptions,
03:14:30.280 but I am saying doctrinally, it is
03:14:32.420 something that armed forces are
03:14:34.380 aware of.
03:14:36.320 All right.
03:14:37.120 we will assume that i wouldn't be shocked if like half the half the
03:14:43.580 military's in nato that was like not the case or not being trained
03:14:47.060 like do we really think the irish and swiss and danish militaries are doing this i would assume
03:14:57.540 that the when you show up to a joint multilateral exercise you would be expected to follow
03:15:05.980 common doctrinal procedure and if you don't it will be blindingly obvious to the opposing force
03:15:13.640 in whatever exercise that you were conducting
03:15:16.000 possibly i uh play in the last year a starlink on a littoral cruiser
03:15:31.180 and like that was not immediately found okay so so that was one of those cases where it it's a
03:15:38.740 personnel problem rather than a doctrinal problem because every single one of the of the chief petty
03:15:44.840 officers on board was in on the on on the scam on on the whole starlink operation and so when the
03:15:53.080 officers assigned another chief to try to like identify what was going on based on this signal
03:15:58.680 that they didn't recognize they were asking one of the conspirators to look into it
03:16:02.840 yes but for the fact that they that this was not immediately obvious or that like
03:16:14.380 like like this was operating like for a while yeah like several like the fact that
03:16:22.060 the fact that like this is not like just a standard part of part of the day like oh we're
03:16:28.800 checking the electronics trying spectrum oh we're checking ourself first and then we're checking
03:16:33.940 has a consistently extremely high operational tempo in the sense that they don't have time
03:16:39.820 to do a lot of these very basic checks that you might imagine that they should be do uh doing
03:16:45.660 they don't have time to like perform daily uh preventative maintenance like um applying
03:16:51.260 anti-corrosive paint they don't have time to like catch up on training qualifications because the 0.86
03:16:56.240 operational tempo is just so high like the the culture has been like fucked up for like more
03:17:01.420 than a decade in like the surface warfare officer community and it's like probably a contributing
03:17:06.540 reason why like seventh fleet in the far east kept on getting into like ship collisions like twice a
03:17:11.880 year for like you know three or four years it's partial it might be a contributing reason to why
03:17:16.680 like uh uss harry truman ran into like a freighter um right outside of the suez canal like a couple
03:17:23.480 days ago like these people are sleep deprived they have a thousand things to do and they have
03:17:29.260 time in their day to do like maybe a third of the things that they should be doing
03:17:32.980 that's that's interesting the and what's what's driving that is that just like manpower shortage
03:17:45.240 A combination of manpower shortages and too many missions relative to the number of resources available to perform those missions, right?
03:17:53.720 Like, let's say, like, the president and, like, the SECDF want, like, a task force in the Middle East.
03:17:59.660 They want one off the coast of North Korea.
03:18:03.580 They want one in Japan. 0.73
03:18:05.240 They want another in the Mediterranean. 0.95
03:18:07.600 They want another one in the North Atlantic monitoring the Russians. 0.89
03:18:10.040 like just be having to deploy and sail and like be at a medium to high readiness status for the
03:18:19.620 president and the secretary of defense's geopolitical goals means that you can't do a lot
03:18:23.480 of the basic training and maintenance things that you would otherwise be doing and a modern like
03:18:29.140 ship requires you know several months in port to like per per deployment in order to to work up to
03:18:38.520 the next one and to stand down from the current one what we're seeing is like a lot of extended
03:18:44.420 double deployments where ships are sailing twice as much as they should be between rest and recovery
03:18:50.200 periods and so the men and the machines are being pushed to the list you know lots of accidents
03:18:56.920 happening because of this uh for you people at home who might not know this like um over half
03:19:05.720 of the u.s is effective like like that are like obviously all the fire powers and in the nuclear
03:19:13.600 weapons which are run by a combination of the air force and the department of energy but most of
03:19:19.140 the it's actual like political power most of its ability to actually like like threaten regimes and 0.81
03:19:26.380 and make them comply like um is all held in in the u.s navy like uh the houthis off off yemen
03:19:38.400 like the rolling threat to to people who would attack israel in light of the gaza gaza conflict
03:19:46.220 like um challenging china and checking them against taiwan like that's all tied up in the u.s
03:19:52.940 navy and where the carrier strike group to locate um as far as i know they didn't station one in the
03:20:01.000 black sea but they have but they have um strike power in the mediterranean like poise and trussia
03:20:07.560 and they have like several assets in the black sea right like romania is a nato ally like yeah
03:20:13.700 exactly but they have also you're not even allowed the north atlantic i see under the
03:20:19.000 Montreux Convention. Turkey has, you know, some degree of discretion over what types of warships
03:20:27.120 are allowed to pass through the Bosphorus Straits, and they have no desire for escalation at the
03:20:31.600 moment. Right. The North Atlantic, do they have anything there at the moment? I haven't been
03:20:39.160 following the exact position of the Karagorps. I should have the San Maribol, but...
03:20:44.320 So, there's, like, the Fleet Tracker Archive at USNI, and I think that there is, as of right now, no carrier in the North Atlantic.
03:20:54.580 All right.
03:20:55.740 So, the U.S. military has, like, 11 carrier groups last night checked, or are they back down to 10?
03:21:04.860 They have 11 carriers.
03:21:06.220 right but at any given moment only like half or less of them are deployable because the rest are
03:21:13.740 either working up from a deployment or in an extended maintenance period where they're getting
03:21:17.940 like a reactor refueled and this is a process yeah the complex you're feeling over how
03:21:22.300 all that takes like four years five uh heavily dependent on what what the hell is going on at
03:21:31.460 the shipyards at any given moment but it's an extended process that cannot be rushed right
03:21:37.240 right so from that 10 to 11 depending on like how many how many support vehicles they have
03:21:47.080 it's down to like two or three that can be on the scene at a moment and as of right now only
03:21:55.180 nimitz truman washington and vincent are active yes and and one of them just ran into a cargo ship
03:22:03.560 right so but the thing is having one carrier strike group on the scene of like um say you
03:22:13.580 wanted it in the gulf region to check check around or you wanted it off taiwan to check china
03:22:19.320 One carrier strike group on the scene actually is fairly limited because a carrier on its own can only maintain a slight tempo for like 24 hours before its strike ability starts to grade very quickly.
03:22:40.100 Like the amount of the tempo of airstrikes that can start doing grades very quickly.
03:22:45.120 You have two on the scene.
03:22:46.120 If you're talking about like booty rate versus pulse rate.
03:22:48.960 those are two different things right if you're if you're fighting an opponent that doesn't have
03:22:52.840 any ability to degenerate um to generate like a defensive or offensive combat air patrol like
03:23:00.740 say the hoosies right like then the only thing that really matters is your sortie rate but if
03:23:05.500 you're fighting someone who does have the ability to generate those sorts of pulses of combat power
03:23:10.460 then the model is very different in which the carrier is held much further away from the enemy
03:23:17.260 mainland and when the the stars line up and you have that sort of pulse of combat power in which
03:23:27.060 uh jets from the carrier submarines uh friendly surface ships um satellites passing overhead
03:23:33.000 air-launched cruise missiles from friendly strategic bombers flying all the way from like
03:23:36.780 uh oklahoma are all coming together to like attack the enemy integrated air defense system
03:23:42.220 at like the same time um and then immediately right after that pulse dissipates the carrier
03:23:49.200 runs for it they it books as far away from the hostile and uh anti-access area denial zone
03:23:57.820 as it can because staying close to the enemy mainland is suicide and so in that scenario
03:24:04.820 you're not having 24 7 around the clock air operations you are just it's like fencing right
03:24:13.960 like you you you dart in right try to make a an offensive blow try to stab the other guy
03:24:20.140 and then you withdraw um you you don't remain in contact
03:24:23.720 oh interesting i haven't i hadn't heard that scenario from now i i'd heard the breakdown of
03:24:34.220 operating against the Houthis
03:24:36.360 or against the Taliban or against
03:24:38.360 hypothetically Hezbollah
03:24:40.440 where they'd have 0.89
03:24:42.540 some rocket response but not
03:24:44.620 a complete
03:24:46.360 anti-air,
03:24:47.500 anti-ship
03:24:49.540 compliment.
03:24:51.200 The title they use is like A2AD
03:24:54.060 or anti-access
03:24:56.260 area denial.
03:24:57.160 It's a way of
03:25:00.260 colloquially explaining the
03:25:02.320 sort of bubble of
03:25:03.700 and isr slash strike bandwidth a serious actor can generate
03:25:09.420 this is why i have you on the podcast you have these these answers but uh the
03:25:17.160 but for you at home like the u.s military
03:25:21.460 terry what the u.s navy can like put out even at max capacity is like is basically enough to keep
03:25:31.400 the world to a dull roar or that that would be stretched thin if like you had
03:25:39.000 you had multiple theaters popping off at the same time oh yeah like if you had a scenario is that
03:25:45.720 like simultaneous high-end conflicts erupt in northern europe the persian gulf and east asia
03:25:53.280 in which case they are vastly overstretched in their ability to respond yes and what you're
03:26:00.160 telling telling us with this um degradation of the u.s navy in terms of like their operational
03:26:07.480 temple just having to stay on station at like all all these different hot spots is that that that
03:26:15.760 maximum capacity that would already be like significantly overstretched is is itself
03:26:22.140 degrading because they're already they're already exhausted in a lot of respects
03:26:26.760 sort of right it's more about like the relative capability that the u.s had
03:26:32.700 has relative to the hypothetical adversary power has shifted drastically over the course of the
03:26:38.760 past decade or so right like in 1990 the chinese navy was a joke right like the the u.s could sail
03:26:44.800 nearly right up to the mainland with total impunity like what what are the chinese going 0.95
03:26:49.400 to do like attack you with like mig-21s with dumb bombs uh by 2010 things are starting to change 0.74
03:26:55.760 By within the last couple of years, it's moved exponentially faster in the sense that Chinese communist investment in long range ISR bandwidth and strike capability has pushed the U.S. Navy potentially even beyond what is known as the second island chain.
03:27:15.020 And if you saw what they were flying over the skyline of Chongqing a couple months ago, six generation fighters with absolutely enormous amounts of range and onboard energy generation for sensors, the U.S. Navy could be pushed even further once these things go into production and service.
03:27:36.980 yes um if you follow s2 under underground i he he did a small piece on a a u.s um on a chinese um
03:27:53.280 he did a small piece on the a chinese like flyby near alaska that that was hypothetically possible
03:28:04.220 with, like, established fuel ranges,
03:28:06.280 but, like, really suggested
03:28:08.200 that they have, like,
03:28:09.960 either some extended range or, like,
03:28:12.320 a really complex
03:28:14.480 multi-stage refueling operation
03:28:16.320 going that was, like,
03:28:18.280 a big, might have been
03:28:20.360 a big revelation or might not have been.
03:28:22.860 But, um, anyway...
03:28:24.480 Refueling is something that, like,
03:28:25.820 every major
03:28:27.460 Air Force has been capable of for decades, right?
03:28:30.340 You just use one tanker to boost another.
03:28:33.360 But, um...
03:28:34.220 So that on its own is not very suggestive, right?
03:28:36.800 I'm sure that every Air Force worth its salt has practiced this.
03:28:41.540 But the idea of being able to do this with a low observable aircraft instead of like an extremely obvious tanker, that's a revolutionary capability.
03:28:53.000 Yes, the Chinese and Soviets, I recall, had wingtip to wingtip refueling that they had devolved.
03:29:01.700 and allegedly this is this still exists in some capacity and has like some new developments in it
03:29:09.640 or is speculated might in terms of the tanker releasing a hose from its wingtip i mean that
03:29:17.120 was a thing but it doesn't actually offer any major advantages over like a standard probe and
03:29:22.620 drug technique right like this is not some sort of super weapon it's just a different technique
03:29:27.460 yes but um part of the speculation was that that the ability to
03:29:35.720 miniaturize this onto like low-profile vehicles like that no one currently has a low-profile
03:29:43.540 tanker other than potentially the u.s with its next generation um carrier-based refueling drone
03:29:51.760 this is not a capability that has been seen
03:29:54.260 like the Russians 0.77
03:29:57.020 but like the Russians
03:30:00.160 are very cash strapped
03:30:02.140 alright
03:30:04.100 I'll have to revisit the piece
03:30:06.060 and figure out exactly what
03:30:07.400 I'll see if I can reference it
03:30:10.200 I'd like to see it
03:30:11.500 yeah
03:30:13.080 so anyway
03:30:15.220 back to heat we have to wrap this up
03:30:17.580 we've been going on for
03:30:18.660 over three hours
03:30:20.780 now
03:30:21.980 you might need to edit this
03:30:24.900 down to a more manageable
03:30:27.380 level at some point
03:30:28.420 no no no they love the
03:30:31.380 bulk they love it
03:30:32.340 they love the size of it
03:30:34.780 they adore it
03:30:36.740 but
03:30:37.360 so Heat
03:30:41.420 probably
03:30:43.480 one of the most influential films
03:30:45.140 of all time
03:30:46.120 probably one of the most
03:30:48.040 both within the world of cinema
03:30:50.180 and within the the tactical world and i'd argue probably one of the the greatest like american
03:30:58.660 stories of all time like this is this is neo-noir like cops and robbers american stories paired with
03:31:09.000 a shakespearean shakespearean operatic story structure paired with state of the art and like
03:31:17.900 still very impressive like unmatched storytelling and logistics of of crime this technical
03:31:29.300 exploration of this world and the sociological exploration like um everything from prostitutes
03:31:36.300 to like low level low level hoods to like small small criminal operations like dog fighting
03:31:45.820 brings up to like like major hyper skilled heist crews up to cartel money wanderers
03:31:55.740 are explored throughout the world of heat and this ecosystem of all these criminals who are like
03:32:01.960 hiding themselves from each other and from the police but are still like have to feel each other
03:32:07.900 out and like still have to like have some information like an exposure to like operate
03:32:13.640 within this business environment that dynamic that that full that full orchestra of the film
03:32:22.220 creates new dynamics which are like beautifully explored and there's and we've dug through so
03:32:29.700 many different themes are revealed but it's it's beautifully explored in this way that the
03:32:36.180 intersection of them creates new themes and explores new dynamics and this is a film that
03:32:43.300 you could write a thousand essays on and reference with a thousand different real
03:32:49.520 real crimes and it will always this lens will always be informative because there's a richness
03:32:59.200 here that that only exists from how many stories from reality were brought into the film um
03:33:05.860 that's my takeaway my pitch to you the listener to go watch this watch this second time watch
03:33:14.400 this a third time yeah uh what do you think it's like uh catcher in the rye right like in the sense
03:33:20.040 that like this is the book that inspired a generation of americans to assassinate the
03:33:24.380 previous generation but this is the film that that inspired the the shooters of the 90s and 2000s
03:33:31.480 well it's not just the shooters of the 90s and 2000s like i can guarantee you that that
03:33:39.720 tons of cartel like capos who are running like smuggling operations who are running like
03:33:46.940 assassination rings or who are like taking over segments of american cities yes i can guarantee
03:33:53.280 you i can guarantee you that they're they're watching this for like not just the tactics for
03:34:01.260 like the business side of it that like this is a relevant film even if you never intend to point a
03:34:07.840 even for the people who never intend to point a pistol at at anyone in their elaborate criminal
03:34:14.500 operation right like it also teaches you how to deal with other nefarious actors what level of
03:34:20.980 information you you can and should reveal who you should trust you know that sort of thing
03:34:25.580 Yeah, forensics, counter-forensics, surveillance, counter-surveillance, risk management, one you should hang it up, the themes, the beautiful tragedies that percolate through this, and the rare gorgeous victories.
03:34:45.020 These are timeless and percolate through all levels of crime, all levels of military and beyond.
03:34:53.300 Like, there's a reason this crime film about Heisman in the 90s has, like, taken us to, like, discussing the U.S. Navy or discussing Napoleon's campaigns or Caesar.
03:35:05.940 Universal themes.
03:35:08.860 Yes. 0.98
03:35:09.960 Anyway, if you ever want to, like, take a risk or hoist the black thing or never thought about it, this is the film to watch and give yourself a lens on it.
03:35:20.340 Anyway, so, uh, so, uh, hyposomata, is there anywhere, uh, people should look into your stuff?
03:35:30.980 Um, publicly, not really at the moment, but, uh, keep your eye out.
03:35:37.480 Maybe I'll have something to pitch to you fairly soon.
03:35:41.160 All right, and we, anything you decide to put together a pitch,
03:35:45.140 we'd love to have you back on the show to pitch to tell us about it you are consistently one of
03:35:52.560 the most interesting people i i talked to and your depth of knowledge on all these different topics
03:35:58.700 is like overwhelming if you if you do not have a security clearance you should seek one out
03:36:04.460 i turned one down right after college because it just didn't pay enough but uh thank you kulak
03:36:12.140 for having me on it was great getting to uh you know spurg out about all these things for
03:36:17.320 several hours we've been here for a while but uh it's time just time to sign off thank you again
03:36:22.840 all right thank you so much and have a great one and as for you
03:36:27.880 you listeners stay glorious out there uh get away while you can don't don't go back for wangrow
03:36:35.440 I won't hire him in the first place, but yes.
03:36:42.520 Perfect.
03:37:05.440 Thank you.
03:37:35.440 Thank you.
03:38:05.440 We'll be right back.
03:38:35.440 We'll be right back.
03:39:05.440 We'll be right back.
03:39:35.440 We'll be right back.
03:40:05.440 Thank you.