Bannon's War Room - Episode 5542： Holding Jack Smith Accountable; Inflated Prices Of AI Stocks

00:00:00.000 The White House escalation, what is your reporting regarding how real that is?

00:00:06.260 I think it's very real, and it was mentioned in the intro, and this is great Wall Street Journal reporting,

00:00:11.180 but a separate administration official confirmed to me that Trump did have this tirade during a recent Oval Office meeting. 0.99

00:00:18.680 He called the Iranians lunatics and scumbags and used some other expletives to describe them. 0.99

00:00:25.720 And then separately, it's sort of taking a personal toll on the president and his top aides. 1.00

00:00:30.640 There's threats of assassinations against the president.

00:00:33.020 The top aides have been told to not take regular car services in terms of the threat they face.

00:00:39.920 And lastly, you know, the dignified return, you know, he met those families.

00:00:43.500 He talked very warmly about the families of family, particularly of one soldier.

00:00:47.500 And I think, you know, that brings the reality to him.

00:00:51.060 So he's frustrated.

00:00:52.040 But I would agree with Ian.

00:00:53.880 He's got no easy answers here.

00:00:56.380 And you're correct to say, you know, the decision to launch this war, he's put himself in this position.

00:01:02.560 For the people behind me, please go ahead.

00:01:05.360 Hi, Mr. President.

00:01:06.360 I want to ask about the Saudi nuclear deal.

00:01:08.660 This man over your shoulder announces a big deal after 18 months of negotiating with the Saudis.

00:01:14.600 Seems like it's all done.

00:01:15.640 It's signed.

00:01:16.560 And then you come out, throw some new conditions on top of it.

00:01:20.000 The whole thing blows up.

00:01:20.980 So did he get out ahead of you or what happened there?

00:01:23.360 No, nobody got out ahead. I mean, I just say that in order to do it, they have to be a member of the Abraham Accords, which have been very successful. 0.91

00:01:32.300 But it's time now that they do it. They and others didn't want to do it because of the problem that they had with Iran. 0.92

00:01:39.480 You don't have that problem anymore. You don't have a great power there anymore.

00:01:43.080 You have a problem, but the problem is disappearing day by day. 1.00

00:01:48.940 They were the bully of the Middle East. 0.99

00:01:50.920 They were not going to be that much of a bully anymore. 1.00

00:01:53.060 Probably, I think, instinctively want to be.

00:01:56.080 But you don't have the same problem that you would have had four or five months ago

00:01:59.740 before they had no Navy, no military, no anti-aircraft, no leaders.

00:02:05.380 I mean, their leaders are gone.

00:02:06.900 A lot of things have changed with respect to that country.

00:02:09.580 So, no, we want them to—it's a two-way street,

00:02:13.460 and we think it's very important for the future of the Middle East.

00:02:16.100 the Abraham Accords have been incredibly success for the for the countries, as you know, for the

00:02:21.140 countries in them. And I think it's very important. So, you know, at some point they'll join. They'll

00:02:26.860 join and they'll do their civil to echo a civil nuclear. But that's what it is. No enrichment

00:02:31.960 to civil nuclear. You know, about Iran. What is the exit strategy? Well, I think there's a lot of

00:02:39.380 them. There's a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are and we can even make it

00:02:44.860 a heavier dose and it's knocking out everything they have or there's a smarter strategy that you

00:02:51.120 make a deal and they want to make a deal i just don't think they're ready yet but they do want

00:02:55.920 to make a deal sometimes they don't want to say they want to make a deal they want to be the tough

00:02:59.980 guys but they do want to make a deal there's two ways i mean it's you can just keep doing exactly

00:03:07.180 what we're doing and take them apart piece by piece we could do it in a more rapid fashion

00:03:11.900 which we might do, or we can negotiate with them, which we're also doing right now.

00:03:17.560 I mean, as we speak, we're talking to them.

00:03:19.740 ...of overreach.

00:03:20.460 The Republican chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Congressman Jim Jordan,

00:03:24.340 is now asking Trump's DOJ to investigate former special counsel Jack Smith.

00:03:29.660 Late last night, Jordan sent a criminal referral to Todd Blanche,

00:03:33.260 accusing Smith of lying to Congress about his investigation into Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election.

00:03:40.260 Now, folks, let's be clear. There's no evidence, non-zero, not a nilch, that Jack Smith lied about anything under oath, period.

00:03:51.280 But we do know the president and his allies want to punish Smith for telling the truth about the president's actions.

00:03:58.500 And the stunt follows repeated calls for Trump, by Trump, and from others around Smith to be prosecuted.

00:04:06.220 Tonight, Smith's legal team is fighting back. Smith's lawyers have sent a letter to Jordan and Blanche saying this absurd criminal referral, quote, reflects a chilling eagerness to weaponize the justice system.

00:04:18.980 So because of that, can he even just walk away? 0.84

00:04:21.540 If the Iranians have control over the strait and they're going to send missiles to provoke people or charge a toll or block up the global economy at will, which they can now do, can the president just walk away and say this mess is for somebody else? 0.99

00:04:38.220 I mean, is that feasible? 0.96

00:04:39.460 We've got allies in the Middle East who we who want to make we want to make deals with and they want to make deals with us.

00:04:46.600 Is it possible for the U.S. just to throw up its hands and say, you know what, we're done, we're going to pull up all of our troops back or do we suffer more consequences?

00:04:54.980 If I were advising the president, God love me, and he was actually listening to me, what I would say is he can and should do that and allow the Gulf states to create a compromise, essentially something that looks like the management of the Dardanelles, where the Omanis and the Iranians jointly manage some fund that is paid into by countries in the region, maybe some others, not the United States.

00:05:23.520 a call it reconstruction call it management it's not going to be a per ship toll um for now and the

00:05:30.640 reason you do that for now is because right now the americans do not have the ability to um defend

00:05:38.040 either their allies in the region from iranian strikes shahed drones ballistic missiles and do

00:05:45.460 not have the ability to defend the the uh the strait from iranian disruption but the iranian

00:05:52.820 leverage in the region is wasting over time. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq,

00:06:01.280 Syria, they are building alternate infrastructure to avoid the strait. You need to get radar in

00:06:09.960 place for the Gulf states. You need to get advanced Ukrainian drone capabilities that will

00:06:17.000 shoot down Shaheds and eventually ballistic missiles in six in 12 months time with that 0.93

00:06:24.080 capacity, you can drive a much harder bargain against the Iranians or else. 0.98

00:06:29.540 But the U.S. is not in that position today.

00:06:32.820 And Trump's ego may not be willing to allow that recognition, but the United States should

00:06:40.020 be keeping its powder dry until they can drive a better outcome for the American people,

00:06:45.040 for their allies in the region and for the global economy.

00:06:48.420 But just to be clear as day about this, just tell us what you make of the allegations Republicans are making in this referral.

00:06:57.160 Sure, because this is one of these instances where I know that usually we're very careful to say, you know, it seems like or it appears.

00:07:06.320 But this is one where there's just no two ways about it that this is preposterous.

00:07:13.100 And the easiest way to do that is to just tell you what is alleged.

00:07:17.640 What is alleged is that Jack Smith lied in response to the following question.

00:07:23.400 He was asked, did you get the content of text messages from members of Congress through a search warrant?

00:07:33.720 Did you get the content of text messages of members of Congress through a search warrant?

00:07:39.220 to which he said, no, I didn't. I only got telephone records through this other process.

00:07:47.120 That is 100 percent truthful. The fact that Jack Smith also got documents from the National Archives

00:07:56.080 was not asked. He was in any way, shape or form. So this story is not just about the sort of

00:08:04.920 retribution that we've seen from the Department of Justice. To me, this is the complicity of,

00:08:12.100 in this case, Jim Jordan, who is the signatory of the letter with doing the referral.

00:08:20.020 On its face, it is not perjury, period. I'd love to, I usually am more careful to say,

00:08:28.960 you know, it seems like, or we don't know everything they have. You cannot read this

00:08:33.540 letter and just in any way view this as perjury americans don't trust the media any longer um and

00:08:42.200 this has been it's been a downward slope for many years now many decades donald trump accelerated

00:08:48.340 yes social media has divided us even further all sorts of outside factors but we have been

00:08:54.080 dealing with this for a long time in the press haven't found a good solution for it um at the

00:09:00.160 same time, in order to continue doing the thing we do, most companies have big corporate ownership

00:09:06.960 structures that enable them to continue doing the journalism that is so necessary. But those

00:09:14.900 corporate entities are then put in a position by this White House to bend the knee. I mean,

00:09:21.080 we'll put up on the screen Donald Trump demanding money from various media companies. We've talked

00:09:27.480 about this, you understand it. He's suing the BBC. He's suing the Des Moines Register. He's suing

00:09:33.140 News Corp and the Wall Street Journal. He's gotten a settlement from Paramount, from Meta,

00:09:37.840 from YouTube, from X, from ABC News and Disney. Stephen Colbert was canceled. Jimmy Kimmel was

00:09:44.420 suspended and then reinstated. How do you how do you fix this? We don't have the same viewership

00:09:51.380 and trust and readership that we once did. And in order to continue operating, you have these

00:09:56.920 corporate structures. And then it's, you know, again, subject to the president. How do you fix

00:10:00.860 it, David? It's a great question, Katie. And there's not a great fix right now, especially

00:10:07.860 in a very closely divided country. But here's one thing that I would say is an option, something

00:10:12.720 that needs to be really considered. And that is at the end of this administration, you're going to

00:10:17.760 see in all likelihood Trump engaging in mass scale pardons. But I would say that there is still an

00:10:23.060 option that is available to our branches of government, even in the face of a pardon.

00:10:28.460 And that is for those officials in the Trump administration who systematically violated

00:10:32.660 the First Amendment rights of American citizens and systematically attacked the freedom of

00:10:38.140 the press, I think it should be on the table in the event of a solid victory by the other

00:10:43.280 side that you impeach these officials and convict them so that they can never serve

00:10:48.060 in public federal office ever again because if we actually have a situation in which people are able

00:10:54.220 to violate the constitution with impunity receive pardons for any criminal activity enjoy the

00:10:59.380 benefit of broad wide immunity for civil violations and there's nothing that happens to them they're

00:11:05.840 just going to really reload and recharge for the next time that they're in power so i do think we

00:11:11.480 need to think creatively about is there a way that even in the face of pardons and immunities we can

00:11:16.480 hold people accountable when they systematically violate the First Amendment.

00:11:19.640 You've got a statement from Maryland Congressman Jamie Raskins on vindictive criminal referrals.

00:11:26.560 This is what he said yesterday. This referral deliberately distorts and misstates the facts,

00:11:35.300 including what questions the Republicans actually asked at Mr. Smith's interview.

00:11:39.940 The Republicans fault Mr. Smith for not reading the minds of congressional investigators and not

00:11:45.380 for volunteering information they didn't ask for.

00:11:48.240 This is absurd.

00:11:49.080 Mr. Smith may be telegenic, but he's not telepathic.

00:11:52.960 Very true statement.

00:11:54.080 And this is all out of this effort now, as we saw with Josh Hawley and his crazy,

00:12:01.080 leaving out a significant part of the point in the question,

00:12:06.440 saying that Mr. Smith deliberately lied, that he lied before Congress.

00:12:12.660 everybody looking at this know that didn't happen what what's your take um on that knowing

00:12:19.620 jack smith having been in that process and that crucible with him um i said this about jack smith

00:12:25.940 i've never met the man i just observed the man from a great distance and he strikes me as someone

00:12:32.540 you just don't want to trifle with at the end of the day at the end of the day this is a brother

00:12:36.700 you just don't want to get in close quarters with because you will you will find out otherwise

00:12:40.740 And I think that that's that is more threatening to Trump than anything else, because he is relentless in his pursuit of justice.

00:12:51.880 And that's why this criminal referral crap is being leveled up right now.

00:12:57.180 Yeah. So I've I've known Jack Smith for a long time when he was chief of the chief of the public integrity section. 0.81

00:13:05.200 Then I was a spokesman for the for the criminal division.

00:13:07.940 So he is somebody that just does what he should. Right. He follows the facts. He follows. He does the right thing in the right way.

00:13:17.380 And if he felt that he could walk away from from that case, he would have.

00:13:21.880 And so I think what people what people see is they they are trying to manufacture anything they can to make life difficult for him because the president has multiple times said he wants Jack Jack Smith to be criminally indicted.

00:13:42.600 Wow. So much to uncover there, folks.

00:13:46.300 We told you about the importance of this midterm.

00:13:47.960 we'll play this one again later in the show later in this evening show but um talking about the mass

00:13:55.260 impeachments so these people can never serve in public office again that's what's coming

00:13:59.400 that's what's coming that's what these folks have in mind just write that down right there

00:14:04.600 they'll tell you what they're going to do but jamie was a jamie raskin said letter that jack

00:14:11.060 smith is telegenic i don't know jamie don't know congressman i think that there's some subtext

00:14:20.400 there that we will not go into on the afternoon war room why we have business to attend to mike

00:14:27.400 davis is going to break it down this jack smith thing is metastasizing the left is obviously

00:14:35.140 obsessed with it, but so are we. It's a start, but it's definitely not a finish.

00:14:41.440 Mike Davis of Ice Short is going to join us after a short commercial break. Natasha Owens

00:14:46.940 will take us out.

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00:16:22.520 welcome back uh mike davis president trump has a saying for guys that look like jack smith he

00:16:29.400 calls him he says they're a real portrait i mean i don't know what jamie raskin's drinking but

00:16:34.680 anyway jack smith is as telegenic as he is i don't know bizarre i want to get to these mass

00:16:40.460 impeachments in a second but mike davis they are challenging jim jordan they're challenging the

00:16:45.460 viceroy mike davis they're on offense like i've never seen before they are outraged that a criminal

00:16:51.700 referral was sent for um for jack smith your thoughts sir it sounds like house judiciary

00:16:58.780 chairman jim jordan's over the target on this criminal referral if they're panicking like this

00:17:03.840 so cheers to him uh we need more of these types of criminal referrals look jack smith was uh in

00:17:11.420 front of congressional investigators in a deposition in 2025 and he testified that he did

00:17:18.920 not get the contents of 44 members of Congress's telephone records, tax messages, and he actually

00:17:29.440 did, right? He did not tell the whole truth, which is his obligation to tell the truth.

00:17:36.980 Well, hang on, hang on, hang on. But hang on, hang on. But this is not like a tiny thing.

00:17:42.540 It was all, and for a long time, it was that he just had the numbers, just had the metadata,

00:17:46.980 at the top thing, Quincy, they came on TV time and time and time again. He didn't have anything

00:17:51.120 else. Turns out he had the text messages and he read the text messages. That is a huge difference

00:17:56.960 when time and time and time again, they went out and said, well, it's no big deal. He didn't have

00:18:02.340 the text messages. He didn't have the content of the conversations. It turns out the same crowd

00:18:07.100 attacking you and Jordan, right? It turns out they did this and this thing's a huge deal.

00:18:13.120 And I keep saying, hey, it wasn't a big deal when it happens to MAGA or J6 or the rest of the Grundoons, right, like Navarra and Bannon.

00:18:21.920 But as soon as it happens to them, it's a big deal.

00:18:23.940 That's okay. 0.93

00:18:24.780 We just want to get Jack Smith because he's an evil criminal.

00:18:28.020 But this was a huge deal, and they knew about it.

00:18:30.760 In fact, they argued the exact opposite at the time, didn't they not, Vice Roy?

00:18:34.500 Yeah, and they're trying to say, well, he testified that he didn't get these telephone records, these text messages from the 44 members of Congress, 44 members of Congress, 20 senators, 24 House members, including the House Speaker and the number two.

00:18:54.040 And he said that he didn't get these records through a search warrant or a subpoena.

00:18:59.820 He got them through a back channel at the at the Biden National Archives.

00:19:04.120 He lied. Right. He he he he knew what he was doing.

00:19:08.240 He was hiding what he did from congressional investigators.

00:19:12.500 And so they're trying to say, well, he didn't he didn't technically get it through a search warrant.

00:19:16.600 So he didn't lie. He did. He lied through omission. Right.

00:19:19.180 He he told a half truth here. This guy is a smart lawyer.

00:19:24.040 He's a smart prosecutor. He knew exactly what he was doing. They asked him if he got the contents of the records. He said, no, he just got the toll records. He just got two from Duration and did not get the contents. He lied, right?

00:19:39.320 And this is a big problem, as you said, Steve, because there is a separation of powers problem.

00:19:44.320 You can't have these partisan rogue prosecutors on these partisan witch hunts and spying on a separate branch of government.

00:19:53.140 They did it to House leadership, senators, rank and file House members.

00:19:57.720 What if they did it to federal judges? Would that be acceptable?

00:20:00.140 acceptable. This is not acceptable. And he lied about it to cover it up. Not only can he get

00:20:05.360 charged with perjury and providing false statements under 1001, he can also be charged 0.87

00:20:10.760 with obstruction of a congressional investigation, and he should be. And if they want to make

00:20:16.100 these arguments to a jury, make them to a jury. Let a jury of Jack Smith's peers decide. But

00:20:24.360 it's unacceptable if he gets away with this. And this is just the first of much of Jack Smith's

00:20:31.360 reign of terror that's being investigated right now and will be brought with criminal referrals,

00:20:36.620 so we'll get to that. I want to play something, because you've warned people about this.

00:20:40.480 I'm not so sure people in the administration are quite focused on this, but they are looking in

00:20:46.000 this midterm not just to stop President Trump with Trump derangement syndrome. They want to

00:20:51.600 stop what they call Trumpism. They want to stop the MAGA movement. And one of the ways they want

00:20:55.620 to do it is they want to eviscerate like the Romans at Carthage. They want to destroy it 0.69

00:21:01.660 and salt the earth around it. And the way they're going to do that is impeachment and criminal

00:21:05.840 referrals. Let's play this clip that they said the quiet part out loud. Let's go ahead and hear it.

00:21:11.320 It's a great question, Katie. And there's not a great fix right now, especially in a very closely

00:21:15.900 divided country. But here's one thing that I would say is an option, something that needs to

00:21:20.760 be really considered. And that is at the end of this administration, you're going to see in all

00:21:25.800 likelihood Trump engaging in mass scale pardons. But I would say that there is still an option that

00:21:30.780 is available to our branches of government, even in the face of a pardon. And that is for those

00:21:36.560 officials in the Trump administration who systematically violated the First Amendment

00:21:40.620 rights of American citizens and systematically attacked the freedom of the press. I think

00:21:46.880 it should be on the table in the event of a solid victory by the other side that you impeach these

00:21:52.560 officials and convict them so that they can never serve in public federal office ever again because

00:21:58.720 if we actually have a situation in which people are able to violate the constitution with impunity

00:22:03.420 receive pardons for any criminal activity enjoy the benefit of broad wide immunity for civil

00:22:09.220 violations and there's nothing that happens to them they're just going to really reload and

00:22:14.720 recharge for the next time that they're in power so i do think we need to think creatively about

00:22:20.140 is there a way that even in the face of pardons and immunities we can hold people accountable

00:22:24.680 when they systematically violate the first amendment right there that was president david

00:22:29.620 french no he actually did run for president against president trump actually in the general

00:22:35.600 election i think i think he's put his name in no he's not the one jd voted for jd voted for the

00:22:39.700 other wingnut from utah uh that ran uh mike davis right there they tell you what they're going to do

00:22:46.100 talk to me about it it's amazing they tried to do this before they they they threw you in prison

00:22:54.020 steve bannon they put neter peter navarro in prison they tried to use the 14th amendment to

00:22:59.740 to throw president trump off the ballot in colorado and maine and elsewhere they tried to

00:23:05.220 throw Trump in prison for the rest of his life. They look, they're desperate. And this is what

00:23:10.260 they fear. They fear American voters, right? They don't want to have, they don't want American

00:23:14.940 voters to have a choice. They want to take the choice away from American voters and make it

00:23:22.900 that Trump officials can't run for office under this Democrat theory because Democrats are scared

00:23:30.520 of american voters no this is they are looking at i mean this is what i talked about russ vote

00:23:36.180 the other day they're going to impeach you're going to move if they take the house they're

00:23:39.360 moved to impeach trump in the first week or two of 20 uh 27 but they're not going to actually

00:23:45.600 bring it to trial for a year every day is going to be subpoenas every day is going to be front

00:23:49.280 page of the wall street of the washington post and the new york times but they're also going

00:23:53.600 after other cabinet officials they're going to go up to todd blancher go up to the deputy

00:23:57.420 You're going to have the pay dag. Anybody that had to get confirmed, the 1,000, you remember, we get 4,000, 3,000 show up day one, 1,000 take a while.

00:24:07.280 In fact, we still haven't gotten him because of the Senate. But Mike, they're going to go after everybody because they want to destroy Trumpism.

00:24:15.220 They want to destroy MAGA. They want to make sure that even after they get President Trump, and we're not going to let him, but that they've cast the net broadly so that they've taken care of everybody,

00:24:25.440 including these great heroes that are in the administration, are taking incoming every day, sir?

00:24:31.540 Yeah, they can't impeach and bar the viceroy, and maybe Steve Bannon as well.

00:24:36.860 So maybe we can run for president and vice president and really make their heads explode.

00:24:41.160 But no, I mean, that's the issue.

00:24:42.880 This is where Trump's MAGA base needs to get fired up for this election and turn out in this election

00:24:51.040 because Democrats are going to be ruthless if they take back the House and take back the Senate,

00:24:58.700 and especially if they take back the trifecta in 2028.

00:25:03.120 We cannot get complacent.

00:25:05.320 President Trump needs people to show up to the polls so he can finish the job of securing our border 1.00

00:25:12.060 and saving America from this illegal alien invasion.

00:25:16.520 And Democrats, they are vicious, as we know.

00:25:20.820 They put Steve in jail over a bogus charge, and they are going to come back with a vengeance if we let them.

00:25:28.400 So that's why we can never let down our guard.

00:25:31.200 We have to get out and vote in this next election.

00:25:34.880 Mike Davis, Vice Warrior, where do people go, sir, now more than ever?

00:25:39.940 Article3project.org, donate, follow us on social media.

00:25:43.620 The key action items confirm Todd Blanche.

00:25:45.940 He'll be confirmed by August 6th if the war room posse lights up both of their home state senators, Democrat and Republican, and let's get the Save America Act to President Trump for his signature, whether it's reconciliation or canceling August recess.

00:26:02.600 Let's get it done.

00:26:03.360 Now, Mike, you do, you would agree that we're at a phase now, particularly they need recess appointments, but, you know, the president, they're going back and forth between Thune and the president, kind of taking some early shots at each other.

00:26:16.980 If Save America is not pushed forward, if you don't get more appointments done, if they go on August recess, is it now time to actually say, hey, look, we've got to have a leadership fight?

00:26:25.900 I know you're very hesitant.

00:26:26.880 You're a man of the Senate.

00:26:27.920 I know you're hesitant to say this.

00:26:29.140 You've got great relationships.

00:26:30.500 You've had a great run over there with Grassley and the team and others.

00:26:33.360 that have pitched in. But aren't we, aren't we coming to some end point about this?

00:26:38.940 If, if John Thune can't get the Save America Act with the support of more than 80% of Americans,

00:26:45.640 including a super majority of Democrats, a super majority of minorities, and, and even a super 0.92

00:26:51.460 majority of black Americans who Democrats pretend can't get a voter ID so they can let their illegals

00:26:57.280 vote. If John Thune can't get that to the president's desk, John Thune needs to go back

00:27:01.900 to South Dakota and go, go work at a Walmart because he's not capable of being the Senate

00:27:08.360 majority leader. Wow. You get, you go pretty far in the woods to get Mike, to hit Mike Davis's

00:27:13.960 tripwire on the Senate. Mike, thank you so much. Social media, where they, where they catch you on

00:27:17.600 Twitter, sir? M-R-D-D-M-I-A, my initials in Des Moines, Iowa. Thank you. Thank you.

00:27:24.860 appreciate you. Thank you. Birch Gold. Talk to Philip Patrick and the simplest way I think is

00:27:33.020 take your phone out and text Bannon, B-A-N-N-O-N, 989898. They can tell you about gold IRAs. They

00:27:40.840 can talk to you about rolling over your IRA or 401k and tax deferred method. There's all types

00:27:46.700 of methodologies, modalities, all of it about how you get into gold. Talk to Philip Patrick

00:27:52.860 also about the end of the dollar empire the eight free installments a ninth is coming talk to

00:27:59.100 philip patrick and his team uh they will take care of you we're gonna have one of the smartest guys

00:28:04.660 i know in finance join us next ed dowd from out in hawaii he's got something to say about

00:28:10.160 artificial intelligence and capital expenditures capex next in the war room

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00:29:47.200 stephen k bann ed dow joins us uh one of the smartest hard numbers guys i know ed uh i want

00:29:55.440 to talk to you can we get the piece up as in zero hedge today a fantastic piece about capex ai

00:30:01.280 the math itself just just you know we've had a number of these really top quality financial

00:30:07.560 analysts go around and say hey look um the candle's not worth the game here if you run the

00:30:13.800 numbers they just don't see after it's up and operating these large language models they're

00:30:19.460 saying hey the roi is going to be fairly de minimis um you really haven't found business

00:30:25.260 models for this that work do you believe that is that one of the reasons the capex concerns you

00:30:30.520 Absolutely. We've got three factors that are changing second derivative wise. I follow the second derivative. First is private credit. There's an issue there. That whole sector is stalling and that feeds back into AI. We've got enterprise demand cracking.

00:30:47.420 There's been a revolt on the token maxing.

00:30:50.240 And we also have power constraints looming, which don't make the math work long term because there's not enough money for all these projects and CapEx being announced to plug into the grid.

00:31:00.660 So that's going to make cost projections higher.

00:31:03.660 And then finally, open source pricing pressure.

00:31:06.660 DeepSeq and others had already been putting pressure on prices because people that don't need frontier models could use those.

00:31:14.520 And now we have the Kimi K3 Moonshot Chinese model that apparently is just as good as the frontiers.

00:31:22.140 And that is a third of the cost.

00:31:24.160 So these are all kind of reflexive feedback loops.

00:31:27.700 And it always starts and ends with credit.

00:31:29.780 What's been supplying and getting this CapEx boom has been credit, credit, credit.

00:31:35.320 And the credit spigots are starting to slow.

00:31:37.580 So private credit as a category has issues.

00:31:40.700 I talked about that in my Beyond the Narrative Substack last week.

00:31:43.740 and today I put out a piece on the AI CapEx

00:31:48.640 and private credit was supposed to fund

00:31:51.780 50% of the external financing of the hyperscalers.

00:31:55.440 Well, that market's paused

00:31:56.680 and you can look at the investment grade,

00:32:00.920 the IGE, the credit default swap spreads

00:32:02.820 are all blowing out.

00:32:04.160 Goldman Sachs this week said their credit desk

00:32:06.140 is hearing from investors

00:32:07.420 that they're starting to reassess everything.

00:32:09.980 And then the other point to make

00:32:11.460 Because this debt-fueled boom has caused AI infrastructure costs to inflate tremendously.

00:32:18.680 Memory chips are up huge.

00:32:20.280 Micron made 86% gross margins for memory chips because prices have risen 50% in some sectors.

00:32:29.600 So this all feeds back into the original models.

00:32:32.580 So it's breaking the math.

00:32:33.960 So the fixed income investors that started the party are going to end the party.

00:32:37.700 And the party's, you know, we're closing time.

00:32:39.420 It's 2 a.m. in the bar.

00:32:40.360 and uh the lights are about to come on so we see the signs and there's going to be some big ugly

00:32:46.940 when the lights come okay elon's uh you know elon the the con man that thing's imploding it stocks

00:32:54.040 i think today at 115 bucks people are getting wiped out that bought in this is why i told you

00:33:01.080 this is why they went to the retail guys the end said hey we got you want a little bit more

00:33:04.540 anytime wall street's telling that on a hot ipo run for the hills as eric bowling said and and uh

00:33:11.700 and philip patrick both of them were offered it but five or six weeks ago they said we'll pass

00:33:15.680 and bowling said hey by uh by july i'll be able to buy that under 100 bucks was getting close

00:33:21.640 it helped me out here here's my concern for the country and for our economy is that this is a

00:33:29.000 we now as a country have 40 trillion dollars that we're adding or close to it we're adding we got

00:33:35.240 1.4 trillion dollars for the first nine months in the deficit looks like we're gonna get to 1.8 to

00:33:39.920 2 trillion they got another bill up there for this war that you know only the americans are

00:33:45.080 paying for it it's i don't know 40 billion today but they're asking 80 billion there's 350 it's

00:33:49.780 they're confusing the math so much so you can't see anything let's say this it's costing a fortune

00:33:54.520 and nobody else is paying for it except for us we have a highly leveraged bet you're pointing

00:34:00.580 about the credit mark we have a highly leveraged bet on artificial intelligence having to work

00:34:06.720 in mass increases in productivity with no mass layoffs that just ain't going to happen if you

00:34:13.440 look at it right now this is kind of an economic and financial kamikaze flight is it not absolutely

00:34:19.720 And look, the biggest problem is that people are discovering that AI, large language models,

00:34:26.760 are commodities.

00:34:27.860 So all these investments were predicated on the fact that there would be a way to monetize

00:34:31.780 this down the line.

00:34:32.980 So we built all this infrastructure, and it's really just a commodity at the end of the

00:34:37.080 day.

00:34:37.880 And I remember during the dot-com, telecom build-out, people were getting huge valuations

00:34:43.220 on laying dark fiber on tremendous growth expectations.

00:34:48.000 Then people flipped and realized it was a commodity.

00:34:50.520 Same thing with AI.

00:34:51.680 The real value from AI will come after the bust when companies figure out how to monetize this and use the cheap compute that's going to be cheap eventually.

00:35:00.340 So this is classic bubble investment, boom and bust.

00:35:05.120 Bubbles are a feature of capitalism, not a bug.

00:35:08.400 And unfortunately, there's going to be pain coming from this hangover.

00:35:12.700 No, we had this with the railroads.

00:35:14.860 This is why you had the financial crisis of 1872 or 1873.

00:35:19.020 You see this consistently.

00:35:21.340 The railroads were the internet of the sign.

00:35:23.220 This is why I said at the beginning, the ROI is not there.

00:35:25.480 The margin in the end product consistently sustainable.

00:35:29.720 I just don't see some of the smartest guys that analyze this business just keep saying

00:35:33.400 they just don't see the ROI there.

00:35:35.200 Where can people go and get all your analysis?

00:35:37.600 Because now you're doing, I think, a lot of kind of macro analysis on this industry

00:35:41.440 and tying things together, particularly about how it's financed.

00:35:44.540 not just equity markets, but also credit markets, the credit markets side of the capital markets.

00:35:50.120 Where do folks go, Ed?

00:35:51.840 Yeah, you can go to my new sub stack.

00:35:54.040 I started three weeks ago at Dow Beyond the Narrative.

00:35:57.240 We have economic research at a more macro institutional level at financetechnologies.com with a PH.

00:36:04.340 I have a personal website at dowd.com, and I'm found on X at DowdEdward.

00:36:10.020 And I'm excited about the sub stack.

00:36:11.540 My goal is to write for the financial layman and, you know, in a thousand words or less, these posts are going to try to be brief but to the point.

00:36:22.160 Awesome.

00:36:22.820 And by the way, anytime the Zero Hedge team does a great job of curating all the best stuff out there, if it's up on Zero Hedge, that means you got to read it and they do a great job of following your stuff.

00:36:32.700 Last question before we bounce.

00:36:34.360 How do you get so much serious work done living in Maui?

00:36:37.480 I thought you'd just have your surfboard and be hanging out, brother.

00:36:40.420 How do you get so much serious work done in Maui?

00:36:43.720 I get up early because a lot of my work is done with people on the East Coast.

00:36:47.660 I get up early.

00:36:48.820 I'm done by noon.

00:36:50.040 This is my, after I sign off here, I'm going to the beach.

00:36:53.520 And I go to bed early and I catch up on sleep on the weekend.

00:36:56.940 That's how you do it.

00:36:58.700 Amen.

00:36:59.280 Ed Dowd, thank you so much.

00:37:01.540 Thank you.

00:37:02.100 That's a life in paradise, isn't it?

00:37:04.240 Unbelievable.

00:37:04.880 Maui, some of the best work out there.

00:37:08.200 I tell you who's not in Maui.

00:37:09.920 maui today is that our own neal mccabe you're still at the white house i think you've tracked

00:37:15.180 down some sources and got some information for us why don't you tee people up about some of the

00:37:19.080 thinking that's going on about uh the kinetic war that may be upon us sir yeah i just want to sort

00:37:27.200 of i've been treating these um these targets for the last two weeks as sort of tea leaves

00:37:32.420 and uh basically these are the themes that have emerged the uh the targets have sought to suppress

00:37:39.240 air defense, disrupt command networks, reduce fast boat and mining capabilities, to isolate

00:37:46.860 coastal and island garrisons of the Iranians, and also secure the sea and battle space for the two

00:37:54.980 amphibious readiness groups that are out there, one led by USS Tripoli, which is with the 34th,

00:38:01.940 excuse me, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and USS Boxer, which is with the 11th Marine

00:38:10.100 Expeditionary Unit. And, you know, I do want to make this point. The Marines as an institution

00:38:16.980 got rid of their tanks in the last two or three years because they wanted to refocus on small

00:38:23.440 wars, on raids, on landings. And so this is what they said they wanted to do when they got rid of

00:38:32.100 their tanks. And they've basically reordered their whole culture and institution back to this

00:38:39.360 mission. And so we're waiting to see if it's actually, if they're going to be given the green

00:38:44.220 light. I'll also say that a former deputy commander, Admiral Robert Hayward, or Harwood,

00:38:50.480 excuse me he said that uh the way this thing ends is to put boots on the ground take those islands

00:38:57.000 two former commanders of CENTCOM uh Frank McKenzie and General Joe Votel have both said

00:39:04.440 we have to take the islands and so when those guys speak up uh you know maybe they know something

00:39:10.780 well Harwood was a uh a highly regarded Navy SEAL he was going to be one of the national

00:39:17.100 or security advisors under President Trump,

00:39:20.000 but it didn't come to fruition.

00:39:25.120 Let me bifurcate what you just said.

00:39:27.200 We'll get back to the landing part and to the Cargillin part.

00:39:31.880 You talked about air defense.

00:39:34.340 Rickards came on today and talked about, hey, maybe the B-1 is coming over.

00:39:37.560 If the B-1 is coming over, it shows probably their air defense is shattered.

00:39:41.700 uh and i think it's the first part of that is kind of what pete and the pentagon told us six

00:39:47.420 or eight weeks ago so is and i think this is some of the frustration of people hey folks don't

00:39:52.160 expect this thing to be done overnight but at some point it's got to be degraded enough so where do

00:39:57.840 we actually stand with the suppression of air defense these other communications command and

00:40:02.980 control these other basic building blocks of their military punch back uh of where are they

00:40:09.680 50 percent degraded 100 percent degraded because essentially if you listen to the pentagon

00:40:14.000 briefings you know a couple months ago it would it sounded like all that was done then sir

00:40:20.220 but two two things one uh you know there were videos of the b-1s leaving england

00:40:27.240 the maybe two days ago so so that's in play and you know the iranians have a vote

00:40:33.540 and it is possible to regenerate your forces and if you have trucks coming into into your territory

00:40:41.940 from pakistan right you can stand up air defense but hang on you can stand up missile launchers

00:40:47.740 but hang but hang on hang on full stop full stop the president's been pretty adamant today

00:40:51.980 i mean pizza we've said this from day one pakistan ain't no ally i don't care how good

00:40:58.240 a relationship we get with some of these guys is not an ally the the the the navy has done its job

00:41:03.060 on a blockade but you got these overland routes in Pakistan that if you read any of the the

00:41:08.200 declassified research they're coming across but they're not coming across with they're not coming

00:41:13.140 across with material from Pakistan or Kazakhstan or Turkestan they're coming through with military

00:41:19.500 equipment component pieces etc from the Chinese Communist Party that let them rebuild this because

00:41:24.580 a lot of these are Chinese systems now there's some debate now within the Pentagon that Pete

00:41:28.880 kind of says that the president says hey i talked to she and she says he's not involved at all

00:41:33.280 and just something's coming across those roots of pakistan and our great allies in pakistan

00:41:39.840 and the pakistan army and maybe they're working off the books but in that part of the world a lot

00:41:46.100 of folks work off the books maybe that's what's doing it but there's no there's there's definitely

00:41:50.520 some way they're getting resupplied to kind of rejuvenate however weak the rejuvenation is

00:41:56.040 their systems, correct?

00:41:58.940 Absolutely.

00:41:59.620 And there are flights from China

00:42:01.160 that are landing in Tehran or in Iran.

00:42:04.640 And so, you know, it's power politics

00:42:08.300 and these things are going to happen.

00:42:09.960 I think that you also have to look to see,

00:42:12.160 you know, the civilian leadership.

00:42:14.060 You know, there's a lot of people

00:42:15.000 who want to cut that deal with the United States

00:42:16.900 and, you know, the Revolutionary Guard,

00:42:20.060 they're not so into it at all.

00:42:21.440 And it may come to pass

00:42:23.560 that we have to take a side

00:42:25.340 in that civil war going on in iran between these competing elites this is absolutely hang on hang

00:42:32.120 on you're absolutely perfect sir that's exactly how you're there for 10 years i i agree with you

00:42:37.200 it's going to come some point in time i think if you just play this thing out that they do turn on

00:42:42.080 each other right they do turn on each other but then that's a once they turn on each other and

00:42:46.780 you pick a side you're there for a while right you're just i don't think i wait go ahead i don't

00:42:53.300 have to remind you steve we still have troops down south and when was that war over i agree

00:42:59.640 man you just hit a raw nerve there and then they renamed the and then they renamed the bases on top

00:43:07.460 of that mccabe hang on for one second i'm gonna take a shortcut i would thought you meant south

00:43:12.540 korea no he meant the american south god where's braxton bragg when he need him fort bragg okay

00:43:22.040 We're taking a short commercial break.

00:43:23.900 Bannon at 9-8-9-8-9-8.

00:43:25.640 Talk to Philip Patrick team.

00:43:26.820 Do it over the weekend.

00:43:28.280 Try to track down Philip so we can get him on tomorrow.

00:43:30.140 Talk about the national debt,

00:43:32.880 these crowding out of investment capital

00:43:35.360 because of the massive interest expense,

00:43:37.680 and maybe our allies writing a check

00:43:40.000 to help us out on this defense budget,

00:43:41.960 and particularly the spending for this war.

00:43:43.780 Next.

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00:46:22.020 Neil, let's now go to the islands

00:46:25.560 We had a clip from General Kellogg

00:46:29.660 Today that Kellogg was talking about

00:46:31.200 Look, General Kellogg

00:46:32.460 Is a hero of many of ours

00:46:35.140 He was head of the 82nd Airborne

00:46:36.880 Just a really great guy

00:46:37.960 But he's arguing, like Harwood and these others

00:46:40.320 they're now kind of obsessed with um you know getting onto carg island and other places there

00:46:46.440 and season them people should know that i believe that from hormuz or right there from the gulf of

00:46:53.720 oman in hormuz all the way up to carg island i think it's about 600 miles and i mean this

00:46:59.640 persian gulf is a not a small piece of water it is a long way and it's a quite hostile environment

00:47:06.520 it's enclosed you the reason they used to one time putting carriers in they're kind of a sitting

00:47:11.780 duck this is why big capital ships don't go in there if we send frigates or destroyers

00:47:16.480 and even that the navies you know is quite hesitant to do it given the armament

00:47:21.240 that you've got to do this so these are not zero risk exercises sir yeah karg i i was dealing with

00:47:30.040 400 miles but i guess it depends on where you want you place your ruler but karg island is far far

00:47:35.480 away from the strait. And of course, you have Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, which is just getting

00:47:40.960 hammered. And, you know, we've moved our army prepositioned stock out of Camp Asalea in Qatar

00:47:49.860 and moved some of it to Kuwait and some of it to Jordan just to get it out of range of the Iranian 0.87

00:47:56.820 forces. But, you know, Fifth Fleet is still there and they're just getting hammered. I want to make 0.88

00:48:02.660 two other things of points, if I could, sir. Sure. First, New York Times asked President Trump

00:48:11.080 today, you're talking about blowing up civilian power plants and bridges in Iran. Much of the

00:48:16.640 civilized world would consider that a war crime. Do you? And the president asked him where he was

00:48:22.960 from. And when he said the New York Times, the president said, I'm not going to answer that

00:48:27.380 question and and then he was asked also the president was asked you know how things are

00:48:33.140 going because yesterday he told axios he's considering ordering a massive new escalation

00:48:40.340 in bombing and the president said today in the oval uh we are talking to them the iranians

00:48:46.100 uh they're being far more serious than they've been before and you know we'll see what happens

00:48:52.400 and so he doesn't know he says i don't know if they're going to get there but we'll see what

00:48:57.680 this is his this is one of his theory of the cases he said they haven't had enough pain and i and i

00:49:02.680 will use the leverage i think we've had 11 or 12 nights of bombing i think the new york times and

00:49:08.040 i say much of the civilized world i don't know if much of the civilized world thinks these are war

00:49:12.440 crimes it's a it's a it's a war i mean were they war crimes when we firebombed tokyo was it war

00:49:18.560 crimes when we bombed dresden i don't think so i right this i would suggest during war but it's

00:49:25.020 it's it's a but i gotta tell you he's been very open to the iranians to the iranian people and

00:49:31.180 to the leadership of iran and look as you know we hate this war we hate how we got in it and we want

00:49:36.700 it over as quickly as possible that being said i think the president has been as open to the

00:49:42.160 iranian leadership and i realized in the kind of the quasi decapitation mode there you're dealing

00:49:47.760 with a different set of bad hombres, 0.86

00:49:50.020 of which I said they're both at each other's throat,

00:49:52.060 and I think you're right.

00:49:52.880 It may break down into a civil war 0.94

00:49:54.460 between the clerics and the moolahs

00:49:56.060 and the dead-enders with the military,

00:50:00.260 the Revolutionary Guard,

00:50:01.940 and then you're back in a play in a civil war,

00:50:03.840 and you could be there a couple of decades.

00:50:05.540 But, Neil, I don't know.

00:50:07.400 You covered every day.

00:50:08.520 It seems to me he ain't shy

00:50:09.960 about telling the Iranian people in advance,

00:50:12.480 here's what we're going to do.

00:50:13.900 So you've got choices.

00:50:14.820 Either get to the negotiating table.

00:50:16.000 I mean, Trump put everything on that MOU, which is now tattered because you can't trust these guys, sir.

00:50:25.080 Yeah, he keeps reaching out.

00:50:26.900 He keeps saying, I'll pick up the phone.

00:50:28.520 Like, no one could accuse President Trump of not trying to get this thing done through diplomacy.

00:50:36.620 And I would say that probably the military's most unfortunate acronym is for boots on the ground, BOG, because it gets you bogged down.

00:50:45.540 And that's that's the joke that the foot soldiers talk about. And that could be the reality.

00:50:52.260 Well, I know if you go, that's really going up the escalatory ladder. I do like the fact that, as he said today, they are reaching out, they are talking, etc.

00:51:00.680 What I don't like is we got, you know, Netanyahu's coming for his 25th visit.

00:51:06.160 It just feels like 25th visits.

00:51:08.920 He and Zelensky are coming to, and far be it from the war room to say anything bad about the dead,

00:51:15.000 but they're coming for the funeral of Lindsey Graham, or supposedly Zelensky,

00:51:19.920 and we'll talk about that tomorrow, Zelensky and the prime minister of Israel.

00:51:25.700 Anyway, Neil, what's your social media?

00:51:28.000 Where do people follow you over the weekend?

00:51:29.500 And hey, and I tell you, if the balloon goes up in a big way, Real America Voice will be back live and we'll cover it.

00:51:36.260 Whether it's tonight, tomorrow night, anytime over the weekend, you can count on Real America Voice having resources and assets along with the War Room to make sure that you get full wall-to-wall coverage.

00:51:46.220 Where do they go, Neil?

00:51:48.720 See if they can find me at Reporter McCabe on all the socials.

00:51:52.340 Have a good night, sir.

00:51:53.860 Thank you, brother.

00:51:54.740 Be in touch with you.

00:51:55.520 Ben Harnwell is going to pick up from here

00:51:59.500 Amazing show

00:52:00.640 Ben's got lined up

00:52:01.660 So make sure you stick around

00:52:02.680 I want to thank all the sponsors

00:52:04.540 Particularly Birch Gold

00:52:05.420 They've been so amenable

00:52:08.380 To all the changes we've had to the schedule

00:52:10.080 Particularly with the Charlie Kirk trial

00:52:11.900 That took place and other live events

00:52:14.180 We try to pick up as much of the White House live

00:52:16.320 And the President live as possible

00:52:18.320 And do it more than anybody else

00:52:20.280 Tomorrow morning's show

00:52:21.220 As you know, Saturday morning

00:52:22.500 Is my favorite show of the week

00:52:24.840 It's going to be incredible

00:52:26.840 How do you like that?

00:52:28.220 I give you the reading

00:52:30.700 I give you the rankings

00:52:31.700 Oh, it's terrific

00:52:32.500 It's great

00:52:32.940 I give you the own reviews

00:52:33.980 I do my own reviews

00:52:34.840 Before you see it

00:52:35.920 Make sure you check in tomorrow

00:52:37.660 10 a.m.

00:52:38.700 Eastern Daylight Time

00:52:39.640 Tomorrow morning

00:52:40.260 Have a great Friday

00:52:41.460 See you tomorrow morning

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Bannon's War Room - July 24, 2026

Episode 5542： Holding Jack Smith Accountable; Inflated Prices Of AI Stocks

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