00:52:04.540I love courts are planning to present photographic and scientific evidence to a U.S. court to prove Mrs. Macron is a woman.
00:52:12.180The lawyer says the French president and Ms. McCrone present the documentation in a defamation suit they've taken against Candace Owens after she promoted her belief that Brigitte McCrone was born a male.
00:52:24.940You know, to be fair, she didn't, from the clip I saw, she didn't say that she was born a male.
00:52:31.180She said she looked like a man in the middle of a transition.0.93
00:52:35.360You know, this could all be interpreted as just saying she's ugly.0.93
01:13:05.320You're collecting tax dollars from people all across the country,
01:13:08.840and those dollars are being used towards an organization that's actually spurring greater polarization.
01:13:15.840They've been funded by your department for the tune of almost $1 million,
01:13:18.940and a portion of this money was used to hire what they're calling an investigative journalist
01:13:23.460to find stories about so-called far-right groups, including Catholics and pro-life people.
01:13:29.600i've known a few people who've been contacted by this individual they just hired a guy for what i0.99
01:13:36.720assume 45k a year whatever what what is what does it cost to get some fucking fat loser to harass0.98
01:13:45.460people through text and uh dms like they're just trying to pull whatever thread they can so they're0.99
01:13:53.040going after like pro-life groups and shit um if it turns out the organization does not deserve a
01:13:59.480continue to receive federal funding it'll be drawn said uh one politician um yeah so they're0.93
01:14:07.420going they're going after the candidate anti-hate network's money i'm very interested to see where
01:14:11.820this goes and it's that simple to do it's that easy to do people you actually can you know just
01:14:19.220through legal means i know we hate to say that but regular boring picking up the phone or sending an
01:14:26.100email means actually get these people spooked it's not a hard case to make but this is antifa
01:14:32.840these are antifa freaks publishing lists of people they want you to go after we talked about this on
01:14:41.100the last live stream we did about extremism in canada it's like people are just now noticing and0.99
01:14:45.580i just i wanted to i want these guys to be under the microscope so much it's like i hate they suck0.50
01:14:53.140so bad yeah they they're they're just struggling so fiercely for their own relevancy in their own0.93
01:15:00.440existence i saw one of the canada anti-hate network people i it was that um there was a protest
01:15:08.300in toronto at christie pitts we were kind of laughing about this on one episode and then
01:15:14.080antifa the canada anti-hate network showed up they had representatives there and they had two
01:15:18.980people one of them was like an 80 year old black guy just like standing around like what what are
01:15:25.780you what are you doing here like you retired man i don't see a lot of young blood i like the youngest
01:15:32.580guy in canada and i know it's like 37. you know what i mean it's just you're you're this is why
01:15:40.500you have to do you have to do this now because you don't have any others because what are you
01:15:44.180are you going to do get a job at a newspaper what are you going to do get a job at a radio station
01:15:52.340we if this continues the way it's been going we might come out the other side of this with people
01:16:01.980liking hate like these these types of people have done such a bad job at demonizing hate
01:16:08.960yeah you know i mean like you need to re-establish people why hate is bad how bad could it be
01:16:16.260yeah like what it was people hear about like people get bored about hearing things you know
01:16:21.960i mean like they get like they hear the word hate now like they're rolling their eyes because they've
01:16:27.440just heard they've just heard it too much we're looking towards america right now and this is
01:16:33.660going to fit right into our coverage of the candidate network so this was published back
01:16:39.160in september it says arena arena zarutska you remember her stabbed is dead because of a bad
01:16:47.080policy bad policy that seemingly spread to every major city at once why and how uh we'll share
01:16:54.760here obviously george soros's da's play a huge role but there's more there's a group writing the
01:17:00.940policies for them um and there's a outlet here called law enforcement and legal defense
01:17:08.280they unearthed emails on how left-wing group has been quietly ranked policies for progressive
01:17:14.380district attorneys no billing no publicity so these are the people behind the power these are0.98
01:17:20.300the this is the fucking tentacle monster directing a lot of this so it's called the0.95
01:17:26.960wren collective w-r-e-n wren collective they're a secretive group with very little public profile0.99
01:17:34.480but massive influence they provide communication support staffing messaging campaign consulting
01:17:40.160and above all pre-written policy strategies to more than 40 far left district attorneys
01:17:46.720um and it's got a list here of who they are and let's name a couple george gaskin
01:17:52.080sarah george steve mulroy of memphis uh tennessee jose garza just to give a few a great example of
01:17:59.840what they do now this email obtained by a freedom of information act request shows the rent collective
01:18:07.120writing to the district attorney of portland you can see wren brag about the model policies
01:18:12.160that wrote for a da in virginia and their their offer of free staffing crisis pr support and
01:18:19.120donors and they have the email here i'm not gonna read the entire thing but you know whenever you0.83
01:18:25.040hear when someone has been the victim of a hate crime a white your white son is killed by a black
01:18:33.920teen you know these parents are sometimes approached by some group they're not even
01:18:40.560affiliated with the city but they're there to recommend that you approach this a certain way
01:18:46.320this to me reminds me of that you know i mean like here's all it is we're sending emails and
01:18:51.120offering support right this is email show the now removed da orlando sending forensic files to ren
01:19:00.240allowing them to edit her memo explaining why she wouldn't charge a 17 year old who shot and killed
01:19:06.080someone at a football game ren has this type of access everywhere um and there's a full report
01:19:12.960linked here email shows rent also ghost road op-eds set up press conferences and scheduled
01:19:18.640softball interviews with reporters they're basically the pr department for george soros's
01:19:24.140da's in san antonio san francisco houston and more um so i just wanted to show that so you've got
01:19:31.200something like the canada into hate network funded primarily by the government but there's
01:19:35.440other organizations like that that receive this sort of foggy amorphous support like it's not
01:19:45.500just them it's like the and i don't know when like that exists in canada i don't know if american
01:19:51.300groups like that have any interest in what's going on up here which is why i think they're more
01:19:56.360fragile and they can get maybe taken down a bit easier but i mean you gotta understand like how
01:20:02.180would you attack something like this like it's just we have a lot of money we have a lot expertise
01:20:07.320and we're giving it away you know like we're giving it away for access right but yeah i mean
01:20:14.980because you're used to speaking about investors whales patrons and stuff but i'm like you know
01:20:22.600in that there must be something like this in the science world i have no evidence to back this up0.98
01:20:29.000But why wouldn't there be a collection of like 30 fucking science millionaires who are trying to direct, you know, news articles, conferences, whatever the fuck?0.97
01:20:42.640Like an example of that, I think would be similar would be like Monsanto that buys out entire colleges and study groups to produce works that just support their narrative or their story or whatever else.
01:21:15.660I just wanted to remind people that, that like we discussed in our panel and how to take an NGO, there's layers to this and where you can identify which of these organizations are actually tied into like a higher.
01:21:27.780money to layer anyway so we're going to move on to the book that we're going to cover i just
01:21:34.440wanted to mention a couple things before we move on so everyone check out our paywall show real
01:21:40.840secret coffee hours that's on patreon that's on gumroad we've had a couple interesting ones
01:21:44.800recently uh the pre the one that just went up and the one before that so the one before that
01:21:50.760that was that's a pretty long one i think that's like two hours and 20 minutes looking at
01:21:56.240a pretty extensive collection of pedophile scandals related to america first nick fuentes
01:22:04.020is america first um it was a article that was written by someone named chris brunet
01:22:09.800and the title was like the top 50 pedophile scandals in america first right and as i'm
01:22:17.740reading it i'm like you know for the first five i'm like oh these aren't pedophile scandals at
01:22:22.220so there's kind of a misleading title but there's a couple there's a few um and we really
01:22:29.060delve into that um and then the most recent one was reviewing an article by a new right post
01:22:36.360delhi new right friend of the show supporter of the show um but i found some disagreements
01:22:43.440in that article so check that out patreon and gumroad um i also wanted to call people's
01:22:49.940attention to not long ago we produced uh we were calling it a short film but uh it was more of a
01:22:58.340you know i don't want to call it a documentary but it's more of a short film it was called paving
01:23:04.680over the public and it was about the the history of mass migration in canada and we talked about
01:23:11.000that a lot at the time but we were working on the follow-up to that uh the working title i have right
01:23:16.620now and this is most likely going to be the final title is how to make a canadian people
01:23:20.860working with the same team but it's been elevated i've seen the first draft of it it's
01:23:29.100highly exciting and it's it's more in line with the things that we've talked about not only on
01:23:36.620the show but on vanguard's journal i think it's the true follow-up to the previous one on how you
01:23:42.420can generate something of an ethnogenesis in canada specifically and what we're offering
01:23:49.060for anyone who would like to contribute to this project in the form of an executive producer
01:23:55.820credit contact myself uh blood satellite at protonmail.com or reach out on x or reach out
01:24:05.240on telegram so the reason we're doing this is because i set a goal of getting everyone involved
01:24:11.120in this paid adequately and the rates were agreed upon beforehand and so this would just be going
01:24:17.760not even to me be going towards videographers the soundtrack producer and other associated
01:24:25.440uh individuals who've been helping with this thing because we have a pretty good team helping
01:24:29.520with this um and i'd made i said at the outset i'm like for this one i want to do it right i want to
01:24:35.760get an investor you know i want to get some money to just to get our people paid because i just i
01:24:41.300feel they deserve to be paid for their labor here's the problem i never did that i never got
01:24:46.800the investors ahead of time i just didn't do it took a nap and sandwich i cut the crusts off0.99
01:24:54.120i sound a toy i sound a toilet for six months so now my stupidity is your game you get your name0.95
01:25:02.620real name fake name whatever included in the credits and also special advanced screening0.95
01:25:07.740of it and the knowledge that you put your stamp on something that i'm quite proud of i think this
01:25:14.540is going to be you know if i never did one again this could probably stand as my magnum opus in0.96
01:25:21.740this sort of thing in this sort of video capacity so anyway i have something really stupid to show
01:25:30.780you awesome so let's do it let me uh i don't know how this landed in my lap someone just sent this
01:25:40.060to me here's the title this is a conspiracy theory thing right this has no relation to what we were
01:25:47.660discussing in previous episodes it's just something i've had on the docket for a while
01:25:53.420and i thought let's get to it now i was just in the mood and so here's the title
02:01:57.420The ships of state, unmoored from the tethers of hard money and taxation, have wandered into a maelstrom that threatens to destroy the very system we base our economic lives on.
02:02:09.040We are now entering a place from which few fiat monies have ever returned from alive.
02:02:15.860The Federal Reserve, the hegemon that runs the dollar-based global monetary system, is trapped in a black hole of its own design.
02:02:25.220they believe they can save themselves and the system the terrifying truth is that we are not
02:02:29.860close to the event horizon we're already past it only hard choices lie ahead welcome to the dollar
02:02:37.780end game now this is exciting news for everyone who's into collapses who's in acceleration and
02:02:46.500some people hear that and say yes finally let this hellish facade end now before we get started on
02:02:54.100everything else i do want to just ask you a very open-ended question i'm sure um the dollar ends
02:03:00.180let's say let's say that happens within our lifetime is that good news or bad news for us
02:03:05.620and by us i mean those in the western hemisphere let's say north america well i would say this is
02:03:13.780a complex and hard thing to answer right because i would say it's both you know um it is a horrible
02:03:20.980thing in that it will destroy a lot of wealth it will be a cataclysmic event you know on on par with
02:03:27.780you know something like the extinction of the dinosaurs in terms of uh of financial damage to
02:03:32.580the economy and to the world because the dollar is the global reserve currency and it's used in
02:03:37.380an intermediated in 80 percent of uh intercontinental trade and so the dollar's death
02:03:43.140means that a massive power vacuum will open up globally and new players will step in and try to
02:03:48.740find solutions for um you know facilitating trade and for settling trade invoices but overall i
02:03:56.580think the dollar right especially as it stands right now and i think most people would agree
02:04:00.580with this right the dollar stands as one of the bulwarks of protecting um you know legacy
02:04:07.940institutions right so when you think of the treasury when you think of the fed when you think
02:04:13.220of every you know the usaid and all those insane programs that they were funding when you think of
02:04:19.140um you know all the higher education institutions in the us all this is dependent upon a system
02:04:24.340that's entirely rotten to the core not only in terms of its philosophy and its morality but also
02:04:29.700in terms of its fundamentals in terms of the math and so the destruction of the system by nature
02:04:34.660means the destruction of the old order and the opportunity to lie uh or to birth something new
02:04:40.820so um yeah it it's painful in the short run but in the same way that weimar germany was able to
02:04:46.820emerge after the ashes um and grow into a into a regional power right um the it would it would
02:04:55.060sow the seeds for the us to have a have a new golden age i think and we're going to get into
02:05:00.100the details of the breton wood system and everything you just said but i'm going to hit
02:05:04.900you with another very big question but something that we've talked about repeatedly on the show
02:05:09.540So where do you stand on the BRICS currency?
02:05:14.100And by BRICS, for people who don't know, we're talking about the economic union between, what was it, Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, and South Africa.
02:05:23.740If you follow Financial News, they've been talking about a new global currency to replace the dollar.
02:05:30.580Everything I've read from them says that we've got it, but we must wait for the dollar to collapse before we can move in.
02:05:38.240And I was just sort of taking the temperature here.
02:05:40.420What do you think about the BRICS project?
02:05:44.020Do you think there'll be something at the size of the dollar to replace the dollar?
02:05:47.380Or as you seem to indicate, we might just reset to a different regional system entirely?
02:05:54.220I think the BRICS move is entirely a bluff.
02:05:58.920And the reason why is because any new global reserve currency generally has to have a feature that puts a severe advantage above the prior currency, and the prior currency also has to be failing for a multitude of reasons.
02:06:15.220So if you look at the prior, you know, transition from the British pound to the U.S. dollar, you know, in 1944, 45, the U.S. had emerged with 50 percent of the world's above ground gold reserves.
02:06:25.820The U.S. was basically unscathed in terms of its manufacturing and industrial output.
02:06:30.660The U.S. had relatively low losses in World War II from, you know, our later involvement in both theaters.
02:06:39.520And Britain was completely, you know, in tatters, right?
02:06:43.800um their industrial and manufacturing base was was damaged heavily london was bombed many many times
02:06:49.660during the blitz um and they over the course of the next 10 years 20 years they started to lose
02:06:55.220all their colonies right and so not only was there downward pressure on the pound as a reserve
02:07:00.060currency and the loss of their of their empire but also there was a massive upward pressure
02:07:03.960in the dollar the problem is um when you have a an issue of reserve currency you need to have a
02:07:09.640uh like an entrenched elite that understands what it is understands how to protect it and
02:07:15.080will take action to do so often military action and a bricks alliance is nothing more than a
02:07:21.000loose confederation and i use the word confederation in the loosest terms right russia india china
02:07:28.120south africa those four countries now what do they have in common besides not liking the u.s
02:07:34.520dollar hegemony they don't have you know they don't have religion in common they don't have
02:07:39.400race in common they don't have common political structures they don't even have common economics
02:07:43.720they don't have common commodity um commodity sources or or uh you know exchange markets
02:07:49.560they don't have common philosophies when it comes to their uh external geopolitical uh stances so
02:07:57.000really what it is is more of a teaming up against the local high school bully kind of allegiance
02:08:02.840and all of this doesn't even go to to mention that the broadest problem and the biggest problem with
02:08:08.340with the bricks currency is the issue of actual settlement and storage so if you have a commodities
02:08:13.520based currency and let's say you do it against a basket of gold and silver and you know russia
02:08:20.500india and china want to be the main players well is russia going to agree to a system where all the
02:08:26.160gold gets shipped to vaults in china and china holds 100 custody probably not india won't either
02:08:31.520and would the other two of them do the same for india no so we need an impartial third party
02:08:37.720how about canada australia or something well then all then russia india and china will just claim
02:08:44.280hey the you know those smaller countries canada is right next to the u.s you guys were holding
02:08:48.940to u.s interests we don't trust you to be a a true custodian right and this is especially
02:08:53.860especially poignant in the aftermath of the 2022 tariffs and blockades right on on russia after
02:09:02.060their invasion of ukraine in february the treasury announced all these measures to block off russian
02:09:07.300banks from swift which is the international banking network and then the next month in early
02:09:11.900march of 2022 they started seizing russian assets especially treasuries and so um you know all of
02:09:18.740these things went to demonstrate the fact that the global monetary system, the global financial
02:09:23.820system can be weaponized in times of war. So I think it was, was it $800 billion of Russian
02:09:29.700assets that month was seized and frozen. Um, and obviously they had tariffs and, and, you know,
02:09:35.660punitive economic measures taking place to make sure that, you know, Russia would face economic
02:09:40.780consequences for, for their actions. Um, but again, that, that just goes to show, like if you
02:09:45.980have if you have a reserve currency and you can't trust the storage of that and it's a commodity
02:09:52.940currency you can't trust the storage of it to a rival like china or india and your russia what do
02:09:58.580you do the the truth is you don't have much that you can do besides just buying gold and waiting
02:10:03.640for the next system yeah so that's what all the central banks have been doing you raise a good
02:10:09.300point there and in our geopolitical forecast i don't if we're talking about the strength of the
02:10:15.440unification i don't see brazil as particularly loyal to the project in fact if america were to
02:10:21.220retreat from its current security obligations you could see them very well project for southward
02:10:26.780which is what many i know peter zaihan always talks about that but like yeah what brazil will
02:10:32.360you will lose them as an ally it's really just china and russia if we're being honest those are
02:10:36.940the only two leaders in this and i read a story saying it was from putin or xi jinping saying0.99
02:10:43.860uh the bear must now dance with the dragon that's like shut up shut the fuck up and stop this with0.99
02:10:50.760be serious it's all it's a lot of flirtations don't you hate economic flirtations like you're0.99
02:10:57.200just saying things to the press uh we actually have a interesting question here from sean wyland
02:11:02.520on this topic uh he had said how about cryptocurrency as an impartial third party or as a way to store
02:11:09.740of what we were just talking about. Yeah. And so that's been a large part of the thesis for
02:11:15.840Dollar Endgame is that cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin, could potentially
02:11:20.300provide that third party non-intermediated role of allowing transfer and custody of assets without
02:11:27.420having to rely on a custodian or a centralized entity. And Bitcoin specifically is the most
02:11:32.840secure, right, most widely adopted, highest market cap, highest liquidity and depth of order book.
02:11:39.200So it's the highest likelihood of being taken on as a contender.
02:11:44.040But gold is also very, at least in the short and medium run, gold is also going to be used
02:11:50.180as a, you can call it a transitional store of value because gold allows the central bank
02:11:55.580to maintain its fiat currency, but also have a store of value mechanism so that they don't
02:12:01.080have their wealth devalued into nothing when the systemic reset happens.
02:12:05.760All our libertarian listeners are just punching the air right now.
02:12:08.640gold mentioned this is a lot of people hearing things that they want to hear right now
02:12:13.580um just look into the comments right now we're going to move on into a bit more detail and i'm
02:12:19.380going to take us on a tour through some of your tweets and some of your tweet threads we don't
02:12:25.360need to get into the details all that but you oftentimes tee them up with these really great
02:12:29.500initial few posts and then we can just sort of discuss that because we want to lead in this idea
02:12:33.220of the financial singularity and this is what we were talking about just a minute ago the dollar is
02:12:38.900the world reserve currency this grants immense geopolitical and economic hegemony to the united
02:12:43.700states but treasury wants to keep their excalibur a secret a thread so what you're really talking
02:12:50.660about here is sort of the dollar dominance and i believe it's this one we mentioned around four
02:12:56.74040% of the world's debt is issued in dollars. It is the global reserve currency. Do we want to
02:13:04.560maybe discuss the Bretton Woods system just a bit and basically explain what point BRICS might have,0.52
02:13:12.900which is that we want to upset the dollar hegemony. What is the dollar hegemony and what
02:13:17.020are the consequences of that as it relates to politics even?
02:13:21.440Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, in the aftermath of World War II, right, we had this, especially, you know, in the late stages of it, we had this global push from the monetary elites to try to find the solution for the next global reserve currency.
02:13:38.560because clearly the uk right great britain had been um heavily damaged by the war they were likely to
02:13:45.200lose their colonies even at even the 40s um you know there were some some uh political analysts
02:13:50.720that were forecasting that that to happen although the obviously the british state did not want that
02:13:56.160to be the end case but it's the eventual outcome um and the goal was you we need to find a you know
02:14:05.280a reserve currency and intermediary for the world to rebuild specifically europe as you know with
02:14:09.920the marshall plan but also asia right the the goal was to trans you know transform japan into an ally
02:14:16.000especially as the cold war was already starting to ramp up in the in the mid-40s and fears of
02:14:21.200the soviet strength were were starting to be aggrandized in the halls of the cia and also
02:14:25.360just as a tangent what is your opinion on richard werner because we also covered um
02:14:29.920princes of the yen quite some time ago do you think that's a good analysis of japan specifically
02:14:35.280Yes, that's an excellent analysis of Japan. I mentioned him in one of my recent documentary, mini documentary I made on YouTube. And he, so he has a very, very unique take in that he has really covered, right, the zombification, and you could call it like the stagnation and slow decline and death of the Japanese banking system.
02:14:58.740And the problems with having a centralized system where, you know, creativity and openness are already low in Japan and Asian countries in general.0.92
02:15:10.200And so their ability to innovate is less than Western countries.
02:15:14.620And so that just means that, you know, they've been exceedingly good at doing manufacturing optimization.
02:15:20.920So like making products cheaper, more efficient.
02:15:23.900But when it comes to actual innovation and growth, it's more difficult.
02:15:27.100and the bank of japan exacerbated that by creating a massive bubble and then by imploding it with
02:15:32.300their interest rate policy but um we can get into the japanese yen later because that's another
02:15:37.220interesting rabbit hole if i could just give a quick two points here one bill wilson raised
02:15:41.700every time dimes would say iran was in bricks i had a mild aneurysm over the past few months
02:15:46.300i swear to god i looked this up from two different sources and it was iran because in my mind i
02:15:52.660thought it was india initially and i thought that's stupid why would it be india what are
02:15:56.920they do i looked up just now i don't know what's going on it is india but i i swear to god at one0.89
02:16:03.800point it was iran whatever and then the sex frequent says they retconned it that is the
02:16:09.740vindaloo effect of course um yeah and we'll save some of the um japanese stuff for later i love
02:16:15.840richard werner's analysis i saw him on tucker and uh he he really focuses in these interviews on
02:16:22.400sort of the blowing up of the Japanese economy, or rather, making what they have, which is
02:16:28.240effectively a corporatist, you could argue a fascist government model, and then having to play0.71
02:16:33.900by the American trade rules to enter into the global marketplace, because, you know, they could
02:16:39.840only produce and sustain themselves so much. So they had to basically barter their way into the
02:16:45.320economic global system by adopting and becoming what they are today, which I think makes sense.
02:16:51.580But the question is, he thinks that's bad.
02:16:54.940I question whether or not it was inevitable, if that is what you want to do.
02:16:59.040And what would that look like if America wasn't there?
02:27:14.020They have bank reserves that are held with the Fed.
02:27:15.920So they send the Fed or they send the Treasury bank reserves that are held with the Fed.
02:27:20.600When the Treasury goes and spends that money, there's a magical button that's pressed for it to become M2 Money Supply.
02:27:28.800And the reason why is I say it's magical because that money, by definition, has to be spent in the real economy.
02:27:37.120When the Treasury gets money, they don't want to spend it on financial assets, right? I mean, there is obviously examples of that, like TARP and TAMP and other Treasury programs post-2008 that were meant to bail out toxic mortgages. But by and large, most government spending is mainly directed at the real economy. It's mainly directed at Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, right? And then other forms of entitlements.
02:28:02.460And so that means that the money that's held at the Treasury General account is by definition spendable.
02:28:10.360Also, if you Google Treasury General account, you might have a good AI overview of it.
02:28:15.160But that also means that when the Treasury General account is utilized to a larger and larger extent, which is what happens during deficits because you're borrowing more and more money and spending more and more money, that spigot opens wider.
02:28:28.640So again, you have this huge tank of liquidity and capital in the financial market, and then
02:28:33.280you have a spigot, which is the Treasury General account.
02:28:36.020And during 2010, 2012, 2014, that spigot was barely flowing because the fiscal deficits
02:28:44.300Now the fiscal deficit is running steady state at 7% of GDP.
02:28:48.680And we're not in a major war, and we're ostensibly not in a recession, right?
02:28:52.900And so if that's the case, like what's going on, it's clear that we're facing an economic crisis, I think, that's still reverberating from COVID.
02:29:03.620But that's also why we've had this inflationary wave since 2020, is because for the first time, we had not only the liquidity from the Fed being created, all the capital, but we had a spigot that would transfer it into the real economy via treasury spending.
02:29:17.680And so all that cash flowed to baby boomers, flowed to the PPP loan program, flowed to the
02:29:23.520stimulus checks, and it became M2 money supply because you send it to real people and those
02:45:29.900So that's a liberal news organization.
02:45:31.960But the point is the U.S., through their ownership of the dollar settlement and clearing system, right, they are the ones responsible for settling the majority of global trade.
02:45:47.320And so if you're doing something, if you're a French bank and you're doing trade with Iran or North Korea or Russia or someone that the U.S. doesn't like, the U.S. can pressure its intermediaries and its constituents in Switzerland to cut you out of the global banking system or to fine you or to do all these other kind of – you could call it extrajudicial actions.
02:46:12.620And that basically means that the global financial system is run by the U.S.
02:46:15.820So if you violate that order, if you do something wrong, they will cut you out from the system and you won't be able to transact.
02:46:22.080And again, most people use the dollar.
02:46:23.540So if you're not able to use the dollar and like, you know, nine out of 10 of the top foreign exchange pairs are U.S. dollar as one side of the leg.
02:46:32.700So USDJPY, USDEUR, USDGBP, like, you know, the USD Canadian dollar, it's all dollar based.0.95
02:46:41.500So if you're cut out of using the dollar, you're basically fucked as a bank.0.81
02:46:44.860you can't do much. And so the U.S. has been able to use this like cudgel to walk around and just0.75
02:46:50.780like beat people over the head and be like, no, you have to listen to us. No, you have to do what
02:46:54.140we say. And this was, again, expounded upon in Juan Zarate's treasury. It's called Treasury War,
02:47:01.960which is his retelling. He was the undersecretary of the treasury in, I think, 2012 to 2016.
02:47:08.880And he talks about how they weaponized this actively, how they went ahead with using this
02:47:35.920Anyway, I might have got the wrong one.
02:47:39.300Sorry, we had a couple interesting questions here.
02:47:41.800I want to get to them before I forget.
02:47:43.460We have DeerPointMacro saying, just a question, put out a tweet today, $100 billion foreign official treasury sales spikes, 10-year yields, 80 BPS in our data.
02:47:52.840Doesn't that suggest selling raises dollar demand rather than triggering D-dollar?
02:48:02.980And I know DeerPointMacro, he's a really great guy and far more, actually far more deeper on the macro stuff than I am, right?
02:48:10.540Because I'm just a macro analyst who does this as a sub-stack writer.
02:48:16.000And I believe he's an institutional guy.
02:48:19.780But yeah, so if you – the problem is that the system is entirely what I would say like counterintuitive, right, from your first thought.
02:48:32.500So a – so he's – okay, so he's essentially saying that the foreign official treasury sale spikes.
02:48:38.340so if they're saying selling dollar okay selling dollar debt raises dollar
02:48:43.600oh okay i see what he's saying i see what he's saying um
02:48:47.500well where's the first the this okay yeah this would be the second part to it just seems there's
02:48:56.220literally no other alternative and as you mentioned each dollar liability must be offset
02:49:00.480by a dollar asset to alm just so it seems like this will continue to grow and grow i'm saying
02:49:06.180this for the people who listen on audio later too. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. So I mean, my first
02:49:11.440question to your point was going to be, how did you estimate that dollar demand increased that
02:49:15.900day given that the treasury yield spiked? But you're exactly right. Yes. The system is entirely
02:49:24.400basically set to one dial or one switch, which is a grow. And the reason is, is because obviously
02:49:30.840debt continues to grow globally and the borrowing continues to grow. And so that just means that
02:49:35.700more and more dollar debt, but gets more and more dollar debt and more and more dollar demand.
02:49:39.740And so it's a self-feeding cycle. It continues to grow and grow and grow and ensures that other
02:49:46.620countries have a harder and harder time over time getting out of their dollar liabilities.
02:49:52.580And if they try to switch back to their own currencies, and I'm sure Dear Point knows the
02:49:56.880details on this, borrowing costs rise significantly. So if you're an Indonesian palm oil manufacturer,
02:50:03.680or if you're an Iranian oil supplier or if you're a Congolese diamond mine, if you borrow in your
02:50:11.720local currency, you'll be paying 400, 500, 600 basis points more than you would in US dollars
02:50:19.340if you take on US dollar debt. And so that's why many of the largest corporations in the world,
02:50:24.760even if they're domiciled in countries like Japan or China or India, will take on dollar debt just
02:50:30.740because the funding is much cheaper. And so it's much easier for them to load up on more and more
02:50:34.700debt because there's more supply of that capital. And then that just means now that they have an
02:50:40.120even more ingrained reason to earn dollars and to offset that dollar liability with other dollar
02:50:45.660assets. So they recycle whatever dollar holdings they have back into U.S. equities and back into
02:50:49.540U.S. bonds. And so that creates this positive feedback loop of more dollar debt means more
02:50:55.200dollar liabilities, which means people need more and more dollars, which means they buy more and
02:51:01.260more assets. And so it's this dollar milkshake-like effect that Brent Johnson talks about. And he's
02:51:08.660really the progenitor of that theory. And that just reinforces the dollar hegemony forever.
02:51:14.420But the problem is it makes the system break upwards instead of downwards. So the system
02:51:19.040breaks because the dollar gets too strong, not because it gets too weak. I have a question for
02:51:23.080you. There's been many commentators in our spheres who were looking towards what Trump was
02:51:28.580doing. And there's talk of reshoring manufacturing. There's talk about America becoming more
02:51:33.660isolationist. And when I look at the financial system as it stands right now, it seems to me that
02:51:39.420let's say all that's true. I don't think there's any real shift in this dollar hegemony that can
02:51:47.580be acted by a president. I guess the question would be, is there anything any sitting president
02:51:53.720can do to really affect or disrupt this system? Or is it just this runaway train that we're kind
02:52:01.680of all on the ride for now anyway? No, there are absolutely things you can do. But remember,
02:52:07.820like, there are always second and third order consequences to disrupting the status quo,
02:52:14.040Right. So basically, and Luke Roman lays this out really well. And I'm sure Dear Point Macro has read up on Luke Roman's writings of this. But he essentially points out that, right, this push towards globalization, towards offshoring manufacturing, towards increasing the trade deficit and increasing the current account deficit in order to send out more and more dollars to the global economy on net has benefited Wall Street and especially corporate America to
02:52:43.880a disproportionate extent. So you look at their margins, you look at their earnings ratios
02:52:49.580as compared to where they were in the 2000s because now their costs are much lower. They're
02:52:53.840able to produce things for much cheaper because their manufacturing base is in China or Indonesia
02:52:58.680or Thailand or whatever. And that allows them to boost their earnings artificially and which
02:53:05.920boosts their stock price, which helps Wall Street and corporate America make more and more money.
02:53:10.340But that essentially disenfranchises or disintermediates the Rust Belt, the normal working Americans, as a source of labor and overall manufacturing output.
02:53:25.820So because those jobs aren't going to Ohio or to Tennessee or Kentucky, and they're now going to Shanghai and Hanoi, that means that all that capital is being siphoned overseas and then recycled back into financial assets.
02:53:43.320So it leads to an increasing of the wealth divide and a bifurcation of America.
02:53:47.380And so I think overall, it's problematic. And if you wanted to stop it, you could, you know, theoretically, but it just caused a lot of damage because suddenly all these people who are earning fat checks and all these companies are propped up on offshoring their manufacturing base now have to reshore. Another price is triple. Another stock price collapses. They're not going to be happy about that.
02:54:08.060yeah and just for the record i'm not one of these collapse fantasy guys even if we believe any sort
02:54:17.040of collapse is inevitable we try and temper those sort of speculations with it'll be very very bad
02:54:23.080probably for you materially for all of us so you know there's so many people in spaces that are
02:54:29.680looking forward to the collapse of the system and then something new can be reborn from the ashes
02:54:35.100but uh there's only the vaguest idea of what that would look like and um you know always look towards
02:54:42.500the technology sectors and i think there's a reason why america specifically does so well
02:54:48.120technologically all the uh you know bricks advocates and multi-polarity guys want to talk
02:54:53.860to me about how much shitty steel china is producing and how that's going to spend spell0.59
02:54:58.700the death of america but you know i'm trying not to let my biases cloud my judgment you know hey1.00
02:55:03.760Maybe we need a fucking mountain of shitty steel.1.00
02:55:08.900Maybe that's as good as quantum computing, I guess.
02:55:12.680Anyway, we're going to move on to the singularity.
02:55:17.720And I know this is going to relate to everything we were just discussing and on the topic of collapse, but we've got a really great thread here.
02:55:24.520The singularity, there exists a hidden flaw in the monetary system deep into the black hole that could spell disaster for fiat currencies.
02:55:33.820So did we want to take this into that direction?
02:55:36.680Can we explain a bit more about what the singularity is?
02:55:42.420So this is actually going off of also off the back of one of my, actually one of my
02:55:46.060most viral threads, which was the monetary event horizon, in which I talked about, you
02:55:51.600know, at what point does the debt level get so big that it starts becoming a, you know,
02:55:57.980self-feeding monster in the sense that like the, you can't tax your way.
02:56:02.460into paying it off. You can't grow your way into paying it off. And the only option is essentially
02:56:08.300print, right? So that's a monetary event horizon. That's where you've entered a black hole,
02:56:12.560monetary black hole, and there's no escape. And the only way is complete debasement or some form
02:56:16.740of severe deflation. And this thread specifically goes into the more technical monetary plumbing,
02:56:26.020which I touched on earlier, which is that when the treasury initiates spending, when they
02:56:31.500you know, sell a bond at auction and then spend it into the real economy, that creates M2 money
02:56:38.420supply. And that M2 money supply is bank deposits, right? It's CDs, it's money at money market funds,
02:56:45.060and it circulates in the real economy and drives up prices. And so the hidden spigot is the fiscal
02:56:51.500deficit. And that's what all the gold bugs and all the neo-Austrians and all the libertarians
02:56:56.880missed back in 2011 and 2012. That's the key to creating inflation. And so that's probably why
02:57:05.180we're sitting at a time when the Fed just lowered rates at 25 basis points. We have inflation still
02:57:14.720above their 2% target, and we have fiscal deficits at 7% with the Fed doing a taper
02:57:20.460because the fiscal deficits are part of the equation to creating inflation.
02:57:24.980And if you have persistently high deficits that are big enough, you can create persistent inflation.
02:57:31.040And I think that that's what most economies have seen play out in the real world.
02:57:36.380The one exception you could maybe argue would be Japan.
02:57:39.060And Japan is a very unique outlier in many, many cases because it's the highest in terms of overall debt to GDP.
02:57:45.340It's the highest in terms of financialization of their stock market, meaning like the Bank of Japan owns 50% of the entire JGB market.
02:57:53.780They own 60% to 70% of the 10-year JGBs and over 100% of certain issuances.
02:57:59.020But this spigot, this fiscal spending spigot is the key.
02:58:03.600And so if we enter another easing cycle with high deficits or even higher deficits, like let's say there's a war tomorrow in Europe.
02:58:14.940And Russia decides to invade Poland and go further west into Germany.
02:58:21.200And the US has to launch a counteroffensive.
02:58:22.860And so we send over 2 million men and we launch a massive offensive and there's trillions and trillions of dollars and the treasury borrows and deficit to GDP suddenly jumps to, let's say, 15%.
02:58:35.320If that happens, the money that's being created by the Fed will be flowing into the treasury and then the treasury will be spending it on war munitions, on tanks, on planes, on soldier salaries, on all those things.
02:58:48.080And all that money will flow back into the real economy eventually and cause asset price inflation.
02:58:52.860And that's the singularity. If the Treasury gets stuck in a fiscal deficit loop, it will enable the proliferation of inflation as we go further into the monetary black hole as the debt rises. So that's the singularity. That's the problem that we're now facing.
02:59:11.380how has the in your opinion and i don't i haven't looked at this all how is the war in ukraine
02:59:18.840in your view affected not america but the russian economy i know it's a different
02:59:23.900sort of international trade model but do you think it's it's looking okay for them or where
02:59:30.020do you stand on that even how is the the sanctions affected them not even the sanctions but when just
02:59:36.300we're talking about expenditures of both human capital and investing into this war you know do
02:59:42.460you think that is bolstered their economy or do you think even if russia even if there's a ceasefire
02:59:49.300in the because this war has gone on much longer than i think even most of the hawks people thought
02:59:55.600it would uh do you think that russia is significantly economically disadvantaged by
03:00:01.820this war? Or would keeping that momentum going, and let's say they move to Poland, let's say they
03:00:07.440move to Germany, would that benefit them? I don't think that this war is beneficial. I think
03:00:13.960rarely are wars beneficial in terms of economics, because it destroys so much of a country's
03:00:20.660industrial base and manufacturing base, as well as their young men, right, which are the drivers
03:00:29.180They're also the people most likely to work long hours,
03:00:32.500work harder to get raises and promotions,
03:00:35.980and decimating that population basically hampers your ability
03:00:39.340to form viable and strong economic growth in the future.
03:00:44.520So I don't think that this benefited them on net economically.
03:00:47.960I think for them it's much more of a geopolitical gamble.
03:00:53.120Russia is essentially a giant wheat field.
03:00:55.700And they have a massive open border on their Western side, which they've been invaded through by Napoleon and by Hitler. And so having two successive armies walk through this giant grass field and walk all the way to your capital is pretty jarring for a nation state of that size.
03:01:16.620And so I think that their goal with Ukraine and with maybe their strategy with those Soviet states in general was to create a buffer zone between them and what they perceive as their enemies, which is the West.
03:01:27.840But I think more broadly, it was shocking to them to have their assets seized in the aftermath of their invasion.
03:01:35.660I think they probably anticipated that to some extent, but the speed at which the U.S. authorities froze and seized their U.S. Treasury holdings and their gold holdings and whatever other security holdings they had in the U.S. and the U.K. and Switzerland was pretty astounding.
03:01:53.020And it also showed that the U.S. is not afraid to weaponize, overtly weaponize, their control of the financial system when they deem fit.
03:01:58.960that's a great analysis uh before i move on to the next part i just need to once again throw it
03:02:05.140to sean wyland i see what he's doing sean i see look at this look at this financial oppression
03:02:09.840this is why john cochran's fiscal theory price level is so relevant he has not explained what0.54
03:02:14.420that is yet sean's a very sick man you understand he's very diseased mind so he does things like
03:02:19.580this he tries to get a water cooler thing going everyone's talking about the john cochran fiscal0.94
03:02:24.480theory won't i don't know if it's even real you tell me what it is sean and then we'll talk about
03:02:30.480it we'll hash it out all right so um this was another continuing on the singularity there's
03:02:36.480an accelerating withdrawal of money throughout the entire system can we speak to that a little
03:02:42.160bit what are the the other corollaries and other markers you're seeing and and what does that
03:02:47.120exactly mean with the withdrawing of the money sure this was a this was a more i guess called
03:02:52.560like contemporary piece that would that happened right after you look at the timestamp may 4th
03:02:56.5602023 is right after the uh silicon valley bank blew up and also after um and yeah if you want
03:03:02.780to talk about silicon valley bank and what that means or what that represented that could be an
03:03:06.540interesting tangent too sure and actually there's some you know fun conspiracy theories around that
03:03:11.840whole that whole fiasco because silicon valley bank you know was used by um obviously not only
03:03:18.500a large part of the Silicon Valley's VC and portcos, VC infrastructure and portcos,
03:03:27.780but it also seemed to be a target for Chinese spies who were working essentially as honeypot
03:03:33.640agents to steal industrial secrets from US companies. But Silicon Valley Bank was a commercial
03:03:41.080bank that mainly catered to VCs and private equity firms who held large amounts of capital
03:03:48.500And then also their PORCOs that they had recently invested in, and they offered incentives to have these – yeah, like gifts and other incentives to allow companies to sign up and to incentivize companies to sign up for them as a banker.
03:04:04.260And that meant that their average size of deposit was many times larger than the average commercial bank.
03:04:11.440So the average commercial bank has a blend of customers from retail to corporate to, you know, maybe high net worth individuals.
03:04:18.940Right. Silicon Valley Bank was very, very, you know, top heavy in terms of its focus on high net worth individuals on private equity and VC firms.
03:04:30.640And so I think their average account size was something like a million dollars.
03:04:33.960So if that tells you anything, that's pretty massive.
03:04:36.94097% of deposits over the 250K FDIC threshold. And that meant that most of their deposits were
03:04:44.880essentially uninsured. And Silicon Valley Bank, like many banks, had gone knee deep into treasury
03:04:52.100bonds back in 2020 and 2021 when there was a massive wave of treasury issuance and rates were
03:04:58.980at the zero bound. And the problem arose when the Fed started hacking rates and those treasury
03:05:05.940bonds started to lose value because the rates and the bonds prices are inversely correlated.
03:05:11.880So as the Fed hiked, the bond prices fall. And you can check this for yourself. If you look up
03:05:16.360an ETF called TLT, which is the long bond ETF, it's fallen by about 50% since 2020. And that's
03:05:23.860basically like the 20 and 30 year long bonds. And so what that meant is that Silicon Valley
03:05:30.300suddenly had a bunch of losses, at least mark to market losses on their books. Now they were able
03:05:36.200to hide part of it because of a, an accounting regularity that differentiated between what was
03:05:41.380called available for sale, which is AFS and hold to maturity, which is HTM. So if you look at
03:05:49.220available for sale securities, those securities that the bank holds that they deem liquid,
03:05:53.940that they're ready to trade, that they're ready to deploy whenever they want to raise capital.
03:05:58.320And those are essentially marked to market as they continue to operate, right?
03:06:04.720So I think on a quarterly basis, they're forced to mark them to market and recognize losses, at least paper losses, on their balance sheet.
03:06:15.180The problem is you can also designate these bonds as what's called hold the maturity.
03:06:20.400And hold the maturity is exactly what it sounds like.
03:06:22.300It means you hold the bond until the maturity date, until you get the final payment.
03:06:26.020And if you do that, then you don't have to market to market because you don't have to worry about where the bond is trading because obviously where the bond is trading is also independent of where you're actually going to get the cash flows.
03:06:38.980Not completely independent, but it can be, right?
03:06:42.140So like for example, if there was a treasury market dysfunction tomorrow and you had a treasury bill, let's say you had a nine-week bill, you could – as long as the treasury has the cash to pay you back, you could just hold the bill.
03:06:53.920You don't need to sell it and worry about where the treasury security is trading.
03:06:57.520You just hold the bill, wait till maturity, and you get your $1,000 payment.
03:07:02.960And so they started designating more and more of their securities as hold to maturity.
03:07:07.020And I believe there was a – yeah, yeah.
03:07:12.780And so there was a move not only among Silicon Valley Bank but also among other regional commercial banks and even other large banks to designate more and more of their portfolio as HTM.
03:07:22.840because by doing so, they would get away from marking them to market, which would show that
03:07:27.640they have actually lost their shirt on their bond portfolio. So they'd been getting away with this
03:07:33.420for months. And actually, there were already rumblings that Silicon Valley Bank was insolvent
03:07:37.640as of December 2022. But it all started to come to a head in February and March of 2023.
03:07:45.220And they first went to market and tried to raise capital. That was pretty disastrous.
03:07:53.280They started to put out public statements in early and mid-March saying that they were solvent and that there was no need for a rush on the bank.
03:08:03.120But really the death knell came when Peter Thiel called his portcos and essentially told all of them to pull their funds.
03:08:10.740And Peter Thiel alone and all of his portcos represented a lot of money.
03:08:14.500And so it resulted in the fastest bank run in history in about 48 hours, I believe.
03:08:21.920I think I have the actual stat farther down.
03:08:31.960In 24 hours, 85% of SVBs bank funds were withdrawn.
03:08:36.640So it was the fastest bank run in history.
03:08:38.800But again, you have to contextualize this.
03:08:40.460the reason why it's the fastest is because you know 97 deposits are over 250k and it's mostly
03:08:46.980portcos and bcs so they don't have a lot of customers they have a few customers that are
03:08:51.860very high net worth so you just have a you know a large proportion of those customers come in
03:08:56.880especially the wealthy ones coming and pull their money you can lose all your money in a day and
03:09:01.000that's exactly what happened to them and they didn't even survive to the weekend the fdic
03:09:04.760shuttered them on a Friday morning, essentially, and put them up for receivership in very short
03:09:12.240order. And I talked to a guy who used to work for FDIC as a roll-up analyst, essentially helping
03:09:19.440them roll up banks and put them into receivership and deal with depositors and creditors and all
03:09:27.200their liabilities and all their assets and how to manage that. And he said that this was from him
03:09:31.820talking to his colleagues. He had retired since, but from his colleagues at the FDIC, this was the
03:09:36.280fastest bank roll-up that they'd ever done. I'm curious, and I don't want to get you in trouble
03:09:42.060with anyone here, but we'd mentioned Peter Thiel. I mean, this guy sounds like a real jerk.1.00
03:09:47.700What's your opinion on Peter Thiel? He seems to wield a significant amount of power1.00
03:09:52.120in the American financial system. Are you hot or cold on him, or do you reserve judgment?
03:09:58.340Well, I think he's an interesting character.
03:10:01.100I mean I was – if you had asked me a couple of years ago, I would have been pretty pro-Peter Thiel given his more conservative leanings, given his at least somewhat implicit endorsement of Trump.
03:10:13.860But since then, I've become very wary of him because not – I mean episodes like this are already a little concerning.
03:10:20.700but i do understand as a as a you know as an investor and as someone who has money at these
03:10:26.760portcos and all these portcos i said one bank it can be very easily seen as just a self-protective
03:10:31.620move but there's also the the problem of him doing these lectures on the antichrist
03:10:35.940that aren't allowed to be recorded or whatever that that gets me out we are laughing about that
03:10:42.480because that's obviously in response to that interview that infamous interview where the
03:10:48.680interview more or less accused him of being the antichrist and so he's trying to do something
03:10:54.080where when someone searches peter teel antichrist imagine you're that person saying i heard that
03:10:59.420there's something about peter teel being the antichrist let me look that up oh i see what it
03:11:03.900is it turns out he's the lecture series on how he's not the antichrist that's wicked normal
03:11:08.440that's like a a regular type thing to do yeah and also i also love the fact that he was a gay man0.51
03:11:17.360who's already in shape and decided then to go on ozempic that's a weird and now it just looks
03:11:24.800messed up there's like this is for fat people just don't do this what are you doing0.91
03:11:30.180he's a fucking crypt keeper anyway this isn't just hang up here it's concerning it's concerning0.99
03:11:36.780and there's also that viral clip where they ask him you know you would like humanity to survive0.99
03:11:41.020and he just pauses for like 20 seconds he's just like um well um i well there's a lot of0.98
03:11:49.600jordan peterson that's a very simple answer don't jordan peterson this shit like say yes or no do0.98
03:11:56.380you want humanity to survive that that should be an immediate yes like there's no hesitation in0.99
03:12:01.960that answer hey uh jordan uh you say you're a christian uh do you believe in christ like five
03:12:08.520minutes later well what do you mean by you asking me that like it just becomes this other thing
03:12:15.160i mean you should be able to answer this yeah what do you mean by believe and what do you mean
03:12:20.500by christ and what do you mean by you well what is that it's like no it's not the bloody thing
03:12:25.540stop playing these word games man you know what this means stop stop doing the because if you're
03:12:31.940a psycho like myself and some others you know you you pay close attention to them and uh you can
03:12:38.540kind of you you do see what their project is again i'm not trying to i'm not trying to hate on them
03:12:43.840because my concern is like we saw a pure tool destroy gawker too like within 10 years he's
03:12:48.240going to be deciding who the next pope is like this guy is on a path to power that i don't think
03:12:55.280is on a lot of people's radar everyone's distracted by elon musk and his influence which is substantial
03:13:00.740but there are these other murky rumblings going on and it doesn't fit neatly into any
03:13:07.860partisan discussion and that was what was interesting about you know me my uh i did a
03:13:13.760whole stream with a friend of mine named kingpild on the california ideology about like what is it
03:13:19.500that animates these guys politically they're not really libertarian they're not really liberal
03:13:22.720they're not really conservative they're this other thing sort of a mishmash of them but that's why
03:13:27.440they're so big into transhumanism stuff like that but i i think people should be paying attention
03:13:32.720to what's going on like really what is palantir you should be looking at black rock as well like
03:13:38.680all this stuff they're almost like too big to look at for some people they're very intimidating
03:13:43.220topics yeah anyway that was just a another little tangent um so i i guess we have to get going soon
03:13:53.340know sean welland here he doesn't hate the paypal mafia this is the type of thing i'm talking about
03:13:57.520this is what he gets into the paypal mafia is what um that's colloquially what peter teal's
03:14:04.900outfit was known as you know they're sort of these financial gunslingers i mean they're
03:14:11.140interesting personalities but uh it's it's difficult to divine their longer-term agenda
03:14:19.000other than and i like i do believe they're honest when they say they want to expand humanity
03:14:24.320throughout the cosmos and uh mark andreason is big on this as well a lot of like the richest people
03:14:31.060you've ever heard of are into this so you know i i think there are economic because because that
03:14:37.660really ties into what we've been talking about about sort of the dollar dominance like where
03:14:42.240where do these movers of capital where do they choose to place it here and operate within
03:14:48.900america so they must they must know something and they seem to be propping up a great deal of
03:14:54.900the american technology because it's not just economic dominance to me it's technology
03:15:00.500dominance as well as cool as japan might be hey look we all love asian girls with a streak of
03:15:07.560purple hair we all miss cyberpunk i get it but there's really not a lot going on over there
03:15:13.640compared to america no there's not and you know um so one of my favorite if you're interested in
03:15:20.840learning more about japan in the end um there's a great subsec writer by the name of weston
03:15:25.720nakamura he's a former uh goldman sachs and jeffrey's um equities derivatives trader and
03:15:33.560now he writes full-time on the bank of japan only and when we went and filmed the documentary over
03:15:38.060there with him um i remember we were walking around uh yeah this is him great great analyst
03:15:43.840um we're actually i go for most of my bank of japan uh research um but he he was like pointing
03:15:51.720this out to me he was like can you name um the japanese mark zuckerberg can you name the japanese
03:15:58.020elon musk he's like where's the japanese silicon valley he's like there isn't one you know and
03:16:03.260And in most Asian countries, that's the problem is that the actual innovation is much, much lower than that of the West.
03:16:10.820And I think, again, it's because of these creativity and openness differences between the demographies, right?
03:16:18.640So it just makes it like Japan is extremely good at optimizing.
03:16:23.480They're extremely good at creating efficiencies and producing things, high-quality things at better and better cost points over time, right?
03:16:32.120That's why they dominated the manufacturing and the electronics industries so well.
03:17:27.780In Japan, no one wants to take that risk because they've been in a state of zero growth for decades.
03:17:33.380And since there's been so little innovation and so little, you know, actual new idea formation, there's no risks that anyone wants to take.
03:17:41.880And so it's just created a kind of zombified economy.
03:19:13.080there's not enough dollars and dollar liquidity
03:19:14.720outside the U.S. to fund global trade,
03:19:16.960which means the global financial system
03:19:18.740starts to enter, you know, a freezing period, a seize up. You can think of it as a deflationary
03:19:24.880winter, right? And Triffin wrongly assumed, if you read his writings, that we would go the
03:19:31.720deflationary path, that the U.S. would basically stop doing, you know, trade deficits and current
03:19:37.040account deficits and that we would allow the global financial system to seize up and that
03:19:41.020there would be a global depression. Instead, the opposite happened. We continue to fund the
03:19:45.000deficits and we continue to print money and send it abroad and spend it on wars and the great
03:19:48.880society programs and all the other uh you know guns and butter stuff of the 1960s and what
03:19:55.140followed was a global wave of inflation and in the aftermath of that like we said earlier the u.s
03:20:00.760and other players in in the world started to move towards this new what i would call a new form of
03:20:06.920rent and woods which is um rent and woods too which is using the dollar and fiat currency and
03:20:12.780specifically the treasury as the new global reserve asset and the dollar as its currency.
03:20:18.560And by doing so, the treasury became essentially the global capital liquidity pool into which all
03:20:26.320money could be put into, right? Because all these dollars are flowing abroad into foreign corporations,
03:20:32.620into foreign banks, into foreign private net, high net worth individuals. And all those people are
03:20:37.980buying US stocks and buying US treasuries. And so that capital just flowed back into the US.
03:20:41.900The problem is obviously now, this is what I'm terming Bretton Woods 3, which by the way, it's not even my term. There's a brilliant, brilliant macro analyst much smarter than me named Zoltan Pozar, who has been writing about this, I believe at Citigroup, but also he has to work for the Fed. I think it was the New York Fed and their monetary plumbing.
03:21:04.120And now he has his own publication where he writes for like, you know, 30,000 a year
03:22:33.540I'm saying this is a signpost that other central banks, which are obviously closely tied to their government, are trying to move away, especially from long-term treasury debt.
03:22:43.220And so they've been, for example, transitioning to buying gold in large amounts.
03:22:47.080And so 2022, 2023, 2024 were all record years for gold central bank buying.
03:22:54.160And so that indicates to me that we're entering a new era of Bretton Woods and what happens
03:23:00.580and what comes next is going to be much different than what we've seen before.
03:23:04.660I know we're going to go right about now, but I wanted to just carry that thought a