00:02:28.640Joining me to talk about this are two fellow columnists with Post Media.
00:02:32.640Lauren Gunter is with the Edmonton Sun.
00:02:34.540He's been covering politics since Moses was in short pants, and so was Lauren.
00:02:39.120Chris Varco has been covering the energy industry since the 1990s and knows it well.
00:02:43.920So since you covered the energy industry, Chris, let me start with you.
00:02:48.720What is this announcement and what isn't it?
00:02:52.960Well, that's a good question because what it is, is it's a fast track for approvals at the end of the day.
00:02:59.980What the government here has done is basically said that they will set the conditions or the regulators will set the conditions for this new pipeline to the West Coast by September 2027.
00:03:11.760which is a fast track compared to where we've been in the previous years where it's taken two
00:03:16.760three four years to get to that point in time so presumably by september 1st 2027 they will know
00:03:23.720what the conditions are to get this project going what it isn't is it's not an approval it's not a
00:03:30.460final investment decision by the proponents which are the governments of canada the government of
00:03:35.080alberta and pamina pipeline it also is not a commitment by producers to put oil in the pipeline
00:03:40.360yet. So there's a lot of road here to be traveled before we even get to a final investment decision.
00:03:47.880Can you give us a quick description of what this commitment document that they talk about,
00:03:57.380that they have to get to by the end of the year, what that is all about? Because when I looked it
00:04:02.820up. Northern Gateway, when it was approved in November or December 2013, it had a list of 209
00:04:11.400conditions. Sorry, it's a conditions document. You could end up with a list that makes it impossible
00:04:18.600to build as of next September. I don't think that's the government's intent, but if bureaucrats
00:04:24.040are involved, who knows? So what exactly is the conditions document that they have to get to?
00:04:29.240Well, what the regulators will do, and in this case, this will be the Canada Energy Regulator, along with the Major Projects Office.
00:04:39.200They will look at all the economic and environmental conditions.
00:04:42.280They will also do consultations with landowners, with Indigenous communities, with other affected stakeholders.
00:04:48.840Then, presumably, we will see a list of conditions that will say, you can build it if you meet all of these various criterias.
00:04:57.500And that's what we saw with Northern Gateway, which you referenced. Trans Mountain saw the same thing with the expansion project. So these are the conditions that you have to meet in order to build it. And then at that point, presumably, the proponents will make a decision. Do you go or no go?
00:05:13.160So, Lauren, that doesn't sound to me like what Mark Carney promised during the last election and said he would deliver in his victory speech on election night when he said we will need to think big, act bigger.
00:05:29.240We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven't seen in generations.
00:05:36.380But this is still an incredibly long process.
00:05:39.080It's it's almost a year and a half since Mark Carney won that election saying, let's do fast things.
00:05:47.740And we're only at the point where we're saying, OK, in 11 months, we'll tell you, here's the conditions for you to do it.
00:05:55.920Yeah. And, you know, this is just one more stack of paper in the process.
00:06:00.160So last November, you had the prime minister and Alberta premier, Danielle Smith, sign a memorandum of understanding.
00:06:08.560Oh, my goodness. Wow, this is wonderful. There's going to be a pipeline because we have a memorandum of understanding. And then in June, the provincial government put forward its outline of what the pipeline would look like and presumably what it would cost.
00:06:24.600And, oh, isn't that marvelous? Now we have more concrete paper on this.
00:06:31.060And this is, to me, it's just yet another paper affirmation that the pipeline will be built at some time, maybe.
00:06:41.580That's the best we have right now, though, is maybe, isn't it?
00:06:44.780Yep. And, you know, there are some significant parts of this that are pleasing.
00:06:51.340For instance, it's the first project declared in the national interest by the major projects office.
00:06:58.420Who would ever have guessed that a liberal federal government would approve a pipeline as their number one national interest project for Alberta?
00:07:10.420That's staggering, but there's still, there isn't a shovel in the ground.
00:07:15.300I think if I went out to Bruderheim, which is just north and east of Edmonton here where the pipeline will start, and I started digging around, the Mounties would be there fairly quickly to say, what in heaven's name are you doing?
00:07:27.700Because there isn't any real construction happening yet.
00:07:33.260Chris, once we get to that conditions document, let's say that they do get approval, they get the conditions document, Premier Smith was saying she's hopeful that, you know, we could start construction next year, even with a short list of conditions.
00:07:51.200Do you have an estimate, a best guess on how long it might take to actually start putting those shovels in the ground after the document is released in September of 2027?
00:08:06.940When I spoke with her yesterday, she said, you know, they would like to see shovels in the ground almost immediately.
00:08:13.420So we're talking the fall of next year.
00:08:16.240That seems like a very rapid timeline.
00:08:18.640As I said, there's a lot of other things that have to happen here.
00:08:21.760Like we're talking about the regulatory approval process.
00:08:24.800But we haven't actually gotten to the economics of this yet.
00:08:27.600And that's the question of how much does it actually cost to build another pipeline from Bruderheim all the way down into southern British Columbia?
00:08:35.020The last time that happened was with the Trans Mountain expansion.
00:08:37.780And that cost a lot more money than anyone ever anticipated, right?
00:08:43.260This project, estimated, is supposed to cost $35 to $44 billion.
00:08:49.360So now you have to figure out, well, what are the tolls for the shippers?
00:08:52.560There's companies here that have to actually make long-term 20, 25-year commitments
00:08:57.360based upon what is the cost to build that project
00:09:00.220and what does it cost to move the oil through that pipeline.
00:09:03.400So we can talk about the politics or the regulatory approval all day long,
00:09:07.580but the economics at the end of the day have to make sense
00:09:10.180or nobody's going to put their oil in that pipeline.
00:09:12.660I guess it might help that at the moment, Western Canadian Select is trading at $80.52, which is quite a bit higher than it was, say, in the spring of 2025 when the province was looking at an absolute shattering of their budget and deficit.
00:09:34.460But I'm not sure that's a long-term sustainable price. How much of the cost increase on Trans Mountain was a result, though, of endless consultations, protests, the government of the day not really caring that those protesters were getting in the way, that they were blocking construction.
00:09:59.120This government doesn't seem like, you know, if it goes forward, that they're going to be willing to sit there and say, you know what, keep blocking that bulldozer.
00:10:33.180That project took more than a decade from the time that it was proposed to the regulator to the time that it was actually built.
00:10:39.640So there were lots of reasons why that project ran over budget.
00:10:43.660What are your thoughts on the politics of that side, Lorne?
00:10:47.000One of the other reasons there were delays is that the federal government entertained every cork challenge there was from environmentalists and indigenous groups.
00:10:57.320and through almost every case. They didn't make their best arguments. They sometimes would take
00:11:04.480a lower court judgment to appeal. And the whole process just dragged out because the
00:11:10.420environmentalists and the First Nations who were opposed. And it's always very important in these
00:11:16.280pipeline discussions to understand that there are First Nations who like the project and are quite
00:11:21.760happy to be involved in it as equity partners. And there are First Nations that don't like it.
00:11:26.760So by entertaining all of these lawsuits from environmentalists and First Nations who are resistant, that added probably another year and a half.
00:11:42.200You talk about First Nations groups opposed and in support.
00:11:46.000I know with the rain of fire here in Ontario, the media keeps focusing on the one group, which happens to be the furthest away from the actual rain of fire.
00:11:55.900so the the one that will receive the least economic benefit but we've also seen over the
00:12:02.340years lauren um greenwashing of different groups foreign money coming in do you when russia was
00:12:11.920doing that over a decade ago they weren't distracted by a war with ukraine that they're
00:12:15.840not doing particularly well in do you see the saudis or the russians or anybody else saying
00:12:22.300you know what, we can fund some groups up there, or maybe Tides Foundation and Tom Steyer
00:12:27.420decide that they're going to do it. Do you expect to see that kind of opposition being foreign0.95
00:12:33.400funded yet again? Yeah, sure, I do. Now, I don't think it will go as far as it did last time,
00:12:39.920because it kind of caught everyone off guard. I think the people who are behind this in the
00:12:45.820provincial and the federal government are much more aware that those tactics are going to be
00:12:50.000attempted. And I hope they'll be ready for them. I can't guarantee they'll be ready for them.
00:12:56.640But, you know, I think that the biggest opposition will come from foreign-funded First Nations,0.93
00:13:04.220because as soon as a First Nation says, oh, my goodness, you're going to destroy our0.74
00:13:09.300traditional hunting grounds, there's a reporter and a crew from CBC in particular who rush out
00:13:17.280and hear them. If you remember the coastal gas leak, which was the LNG pipeline that was running
00:13:23.660from northeastern BC down to the central coast of BC, there were lots of protests against and
00:13:33.120there were several chiefs who were opposed to it. But it turned out that every elected chief,
00:13:38.100most of the First Nations along the route had an elected chief and a hereditary chief. And all of
00:13:43.900the elected chiefs had signed on, and it was only hereditary chiefs, many of whom were not really
00:13:49.480hereditary. They'd been simply appointed to their positions. They were opposed, and yet Trudeau
00:13:55.840went out and he met with the hereditary chiefs, and there were endless reports from the Globe and
00:14:01.280Mail and Toronto Star and the CBC about how these poor First Nations people were being jobbed by
00:14:08.100big oil companies. That's what they have to worry about. That's what they have to fight against.
00:14:13.900chris let me ask you about the economics of um the pathways project to me this was when the
00:14:23.160industry was going along with the idea of capturing carbon capture and storage a few years ago
00:14:28.420you know you would hear people say yes well the industry supports this project or the industry
00:14:34.940supports a carbon tax my view was always they didn't really support it but they tell you they
00:14:41.620would if you would approve their project it was a bit like the dane geld they'll pay it if they
00:14:46.420have to what's industry telling you now in terms of the economics of still going forward with
00:14:54.840pathways to get this pipeline approved well i think the industry first off is not in favor of
00:15:03.140an industrial carbon tax and they've made that pretty clear over the last six months
00:15:51.200And so the industry views it as a basket.
00:15:53.660And that's what they're willing to proceed with.
00:15:56.080I mean, but they were lobbying to try and get pathways dumped.
00:16:01.200I think if they they know that the Kearney government is linking it.
00:16:04.480But am I incorrect to believe that if they had their druthers, it would just be a pipeline and not a carbon capture and storage project attached to it?
00:16:16.400I think they see pathways as an additional cost that they're going to face that virtually no other industry other than maybe in Norway will face.
00:16:24.860They also think that if there was no pathways, they could invest money in the pipeline.
00:16:31.820But one of the things that wasn't mentioned yesterday in the Fort McMurray announcement is that there are no private investors yet for the Pacific Link pipeline.
00:16:43.080I think it would cost more than $44 billion.
00:16:45.260If Trans Mountain costs $34 and we're now further down the road inflation-wise, this could easily cost $55 billion.
00:16:53.640And you might get some private investment for that if they weren't also being required to put $20 billion into carbon capture.
00:17:02.980But when you put those two together, there's an oil company in the world that wants to put that kind of money into something.
00:17:09.620Let me ask you both about that part of this.
00:17:13.220So they didn't spell it out in the news release that I read, but they said the government of Canada, government of Alberta, will jointly own it.
00:17:20.82010% will go to First Nations communities along the route.
00:17:24.900So, you know, I'm taking it that it's going to be 45% federal, 45% provincial until I know otherwise.
00:17:34.760There was a time when private sector companies lined up.
00:17:38.540Is it just what you were talking about, Lauren, the Pathways Project?
00:17:41.780or is it that we haven't done the regulatory work to make this oil patch and this pipeline
00:17:51.840attractive as an investment? Because I'll tell you, when the investment summit was here in Toronto,
00:17:57.980people were saying great things and they're saying, yeah, we love the new attitude. We love
00:18:02.480the fresh approach. It's a lot nicer than the last guy. It's very interesting. And then there
00:18:09.720was a but. And the but was Canada has not yet done the regulatory requirements, and this is across
00:18:16.800all business, not just the oil and gas industry. You haven't done the heavy lifting to make things
00:18:22.540attractive. Right. I mean, the companies that were involved in Energy East, Northern Gateway,
00:18:30.160Keystone XL, all put in more than a billion dollars in getting through the regulatory process,
00:18:35.860only to have all three of those pipelines canceled.
00:18:39.240You're sitting in a CEO's office in a tower in Calgary,
00:18:45.980and somebody's trying to get you to put money in.
00:18:48.720You're going to think, no, we already did this once,
00:18:51.740and we are not going to risk our shareholders' capital again
00:18:55.820on a project that the next government or this government,
00:19:01.560if it gets into trouble with its base, is going to cancel.
00:19:04.980So there has to be some real proof that this is going to take place.
00:19:10.140And I think that means that taxpayers, not shareholders, on the hook for all this.
00:19:16.280I thought it was funny that Carney said in Fort McMurray, taxpayers are going to make a lot of money from this.
00:19:22.560Yeah, maybe after a 30-year amortization of the costs.
00:19:26.700I mean, there will be revenues coming in from transporting oil, as there is with Trans Mountain.
00:19:33.040Trans Mountain's bringing in a couple billion dollars a year for Ottawa and similar amounts for Alberta and B.C.
00:19:43.600But, you know, that doesn't include making payments on the pipeline.
00:19:50.620So because governments don't have to make payments.
00:19:56.160They took money from ordinary Canadians and they paid for the pipeline.
00:19:59.960So I think they're thinking of the same model for this one.
00:20:03.900And, you know, this could have been perhaps the most expensive week for taxpayers in Canadian history because also this week, Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that they wanted to rush ahead with the Northern Shield pipeline, which gets Canadian oil to Ontario without having it to go through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
00:21:15.120The government and her Democratic core want it done because they've convinced themselves it's a huge environmental danger.
00:21:24.300But I don't think the average Michigander wants it gone.
00:21:28.840I don't think they care one way or the other.1.00
00:21:32.040Chris, what were your thoughts on that Northern Shield announcement?
00:21:36.320Because you were there when Premier Smith and Premier Ford were chatting about it in Calgary last week.
00:21:44.020Does it feel to you like it's something real?
00:21:47.040Were the people in the business audience taking it as real?
00:21:50.060I know from speaking to Premier Ford that he's quite serious about it, but do people take him seriously in Calgary?
00:21:59.080I think people in the industry take the Ontario Premier seriously, but I think you have to remember where this project is.
00:22:06.980This was just floated as an idea that was going to have a feasibility study back in July during Stampede Week when Premier Ford and Premier Smith met here in Calgary.
00:22:15.440and now they're basically moving that process along but they're still waiting for a feasibility
00:22:20.240report so we don't have a really have a route we don't have obviously any proponents like this is
00:22:24.840very early in the process and there are a number of other projects you know that are looking to
00:22:30.460move ahead whether it's an expansion of the trans mountain system an expansion of the
00:22:34.040enbridge mainline system there's another line which is basically going to sort of revive
00:22:38.380parts of the old keystone excel project and then of course this west coast project so
00:22:43.320So I think everyone in industry would view that this one is the furthest back in the planning process.
00:22:48.680It's also probably got the most challenging economics.
00:22:51.820I mean, if you think about the cost, that $34 billion to go to the West Coast with Northern Gateway, that was 1,200 kilometers.
00:22:59.060This would be 3,300 kilometers, a lot of it going through Shield.
00:23:04.060So the cost, I think, would probably be well in excess of that, probably in excess of $50 or $60 billion by the time that you got it built.
00:23:11.420So the economics would be really challenged. Then you get into the question of, OK, who's going to pay for it and what are you paying for? Are you just looking at this as an economic prospect or are you investing in this for some other reasons, for national security, energy security reasons? And that's where sort of the risk calculus changes.
00:23:29.740Yeah, well, I think it's all of the above for Ford. He doesn't like the idea that the Michigan governor is going to hold a gun to his head. And what did they say? Pearson would run out of jet fuel within seven days if the line was completely shut down and they didn't have an alternative.
00:23:49.600Yeah, well, and think of all those dairy barns in Quebec that would be unheated in January because they don't have propane.
00:23:56.740You still found a way to bring it back to supply management, Lauren.
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00:27:53.360This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?
00:27:56.780where we unpack the biggest, weirdest, and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew and tell you what really happened.
00:28:04.260Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes from season two.
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00:28:37.800Unfortunately, what you can't see is Mark Carney looking, well, uncomfortable behind her.
00:28:42.420That agreement has delivered major wins for Alberta, including, of course, an agreement to advance an oil pipeline to Asian markets,
00:28:51.220a commitment from the federal government not to proceed with a federal oil and gas emissions cap so that our energy producers can thrive again,
00:28:58.700abeyance of the federal clean electricity regulations in Alberta, which would have placed our electrical grid at serious risk of failure
00:29:05.380and limited our industry's ability to grow in the future,
00:29:09.340an impact assessment agreement to streamline project reviews,
00:29:13.040reduce duplication, and reinforce provincial jurisdiction,
00:29:16.540suspension of the federal zero-emission vehicle mandate,
00:29:19.520and, of course, removal of the greenwashing provisions in the Competition Act.
00:29:23.020I mean, that's a lot of Ws for Premier Smith there.
00:29:26.700She's done well out of this agreement.
00:29:30.560We can all agree that, you know, it's a good thing that the pipeline proposal, at least, is moving forward.
00:29:37.900We can agree that it may take too long.
00:29:40.540We can agree there should be public sector money behind it.
00:29:44.960But I did not expect, even with Mark Carney saying things were going to change, that all the things the premier just listed would ever happen with a liberal government.
00:29:55.320Did either of you expect what she listed off to be the current reality?
00:30:00.560Well, I'll jump in first and just go back to the MOU last November. I think everyone was pretty surprised at the scope of all of the things that were included in that. The oil and gas emissions cap was obviously a big deal. The methane regulations, the Impact Assessment Act.
00:30:16.160I think one of the sleeper ones in all that was the clean electricity regulations.
00:30:21.280Those being put into abeyance means that the Alberta government can actually move forward on building or having industry build natural gas, fire, power plants.
00:30:30.980That allows you to build an entirely new industry built around data centers.
00:30:35.120So there were a lot of things in that aside from the pipeline and the pathways project.
00:30:39.520And I think a lot of people in the industry were really surprised at how many items got included in that MOU.
00:30:47.220Explain why that was important, Chris, the clean energy regulations.
00:30:53.180And isn't Alberta's electricity grid mostly natural gas already?
00:30:58.780I mean, I know you don't have the big hydro of BC or Quebec, but what powers the Alberta grid now?
00:31:06.320Yeah, it used to be primarily coal-fired power going back about 10 years ago.
00:31:11.620And the industry has been moving over to natural gas primarily, along with some renewables over the last 5 to 10 years.
00:31:19.480Alberta's got a lot of natural gas, and that is going to continue to power the grid for years.
00:31:24.120But with the clean electricity regulations that the Trudeau government put in, they basically had put a sunset period over when those projects had to stop operating.
00:31:32.640And so that meant that industry wasn't prepared to build new gas plants.
00:31:37.280So you were going to end up in this period where you were going to have some older plants come off, and then what was going to replace it?
00:31:42.320That was a giant question for industry, and industry wasn't prepared to make an investment until they got some clarity on that.
00:31:48.040So that's why it's important that the clean electricity regulations were included in that MOU, and that allows industry to build new gas firepower plants in the province.
00:32:01.800But after decades of digging the uranium out of the ground but refusing to build a nuclear plant, they're going to move forward with it, which is, I think, smart on their part.
00:32:12.440Lauren, your thoughts on the long list that Premier Smith had.
00:32:17.020You've been skeptical of the liberal government in Ottawa a long time.
00:32:26.080And, you know, the reason it surprised me is that there aren't that many different faces in caucus than there were when Justin Trudeau was the prime minister.
00:32:38.020And they were all behind, at least they all claimed to be behind, all of his green regulations.
00:32:45.640And Stevanjibo was still in the caucus under Carney when most of this was announced.
00:32:52.300And he was, of course, the big driver behind a lot of this.
00:32:56.080He's now gone because of all these wins for Daniel Smith.
00:33:00.360Exactly. And he tried very hard to take other people with him and they wouldn't go.
00:33:04.280So politically, this has been easier to undo a lot of the Trudeau damage than I expected.
00:33:12.460I think, as you said, Brian, we're still looking at an awful lot of companies that aren't prepared to invest until they know with certainty what's going to happen.
00:33:23.280But, you know, the whole idea, we spent billions of dollars in the 20 teens in Alberta converting coal-fired power plants to natural gas.
00:33:35.840And then Stevan Jibo comes along and says, no, no, no, no, no, natural gas is a dangerous fuel source.
00:33:43.060So you have to go to wind turbines and solar farms and bug burps or whatever it is that, you know, he decided was going to work.
00:35:39.120I think they're joint wins between Danielle Smith and Mark Carney.
00:35:42.260I don't think Danielle Smith would have gotten very far with any of these, unless Mark Carney was the prime minister, and he's pro-development.
00:35:52.200Chris, in terms of the, you know, I think Lauren's correct, and the Impact Assessment Act is in some ways gutted.
00:35:59.460I think also just a different vision of how to implement it.
00:36:04.580I know it's called the No More Pipelines Act in much of the country.
00:36:08.180Stephen Gaubeau tried to make it the No More Highways.
00:36:10.320He tried to get involved in local road decisions here in Ontario, saying, no, no, you can't build that road there, to which the federal government had never been involved in that sort of thing.
00:36:20.880They told Scott Moe he couldn't build a renewables electricity plant because it had gas backup.
00:36:28.300I mean, he was trying to shut down everything. And this is a different mindset, which I think really shows up in the one project, one review, one year. How welcome is that to the industry?
00:36:43.240I think that's hugely welcome. I think that's always been a concern. And I know that when Gibo was the minister, they talked about using the Impact Assessment Act to look at things like SAG-D, thermal oil sands projects, projects which are completely within the boundaries.
00:36:58.300the province of alberta but they were going to look at uh doing you know assessments on those
00:37:04.060kinds of projects so that would have thrown a huge element of risk into those kinds of investments
00:37:09.500along with you know what the impact assessment act would have done on cross-border pipelines which
00:37:14.940obviously we didn't see a lot of cross-border pipelines being proposed during that period of
00:37:18.780time so i think the industry uh was certainly welcoming of the changes to the impact assessment
00:37:23.660act all driven by one change in leader because as you said lauren so many of these people are
00:37:29.460the same ones around the table yeah absolutely and and um so far i i hate to be a skeptic i
00:37:38.780hate to throw cold water i still haven't seen anything from carney of a concrete nature as
00:37:46.320you said when he was having his investment summit in toronto people were so excited about the change
00:37:52.080in tone, the change in approach. But I don't see an awful lot of investment coming out of that
00:37:58.660because there haven't been a lot of changes in taxation, regulation, all of the things that
00:38:05.200incentivize companies to invest. So we'll wait. We'll see. We'll see if Mark Carney goes the next
00:38:13.500step and becomes a concrete reformer a concrete business developer so chris it what what would
00:38:22.440the asks be from the industry on that front well what would be their shopping list the shopping
00:38:27.820list of things that they want to see would start with i think that pipeline i think to lauren's
00:38:32.680point there is an element of skepticism here about the ability to get projects done because
00:38:37.540the past has told us that it's been an inability to get projects done which has put a huge risk
00:38:43.340premium into any kind of investment decision. So there are going to be a lot of people watching
00:38:49.640this pipeline project to see whether it gets done. And it is primarily being proposed and
00:38:55.660it's going to be paid for by taxpayers. Pembina pipeline has got a 10% stake, a non-binding stake,
00:39:00.980and they can make it 20% if that project goes through. But the fact is that the governments
00:39:06.200are having to build it because private industry is not willing to take on the risk. So they're
00:39:09.720going to be watching to see whether that project can get through if that project gets through
00:39:13.520then i think you're going to see people go okay this process does work but it's got to actually
00:39:19.860happen all right let's talk about the politics of this because i i know they said in their mou that
00:39:27.620they would make an announcement by october 1st but they waited until october 1st they could have
00:39:32.780announced this a while ago we've we've all known it was headed this way they waited until october
00:39:37.780first and i think a certain vote happening on october 19th on the future of alberta and do you
00:39:45.680want to have a referendum on whether you want to have another referendum on whether to separate
00:39:52.200from canada it's a convoluted way but you know keith wilson who is uh one of the uh the most
00:40:00.860thoughtful and uh engaging guys on the leave side and i've debated keith because i told him
00:40:07.640well, I like you, but you're wrong. He put out a video in response to the Pacific Link
00:40:14.580announcement. And I'll play you part of what he said, but it's framed within the
00:40:21.200parameters that he put forward, which said, it's kind of like one of those marriages where the
00:40:28.580husband is a deadbeat, doesn't do anything until the wife decides she wants to look at better
00:40:34.520options and then he shows up with a a bouquet of flowers so obviously in his mind uh canada and
00:40:42.520the federal government is the deadbeat spouse and alberta is the abused spouse and here's how he
00:40:48.440framed the arrival of this pipeline announcement well i'm encouraged that this that there's some
00:40:55.820glimmer of hope of market access we need to remember that the concerns that many albertans
00:41:03.020have about our relationship with Ottawa was never just about a pipeline.
00:41:08.640And on October 19th, if you accept the bouquet, you are and vote option one,
00:41:17.640you're basically saying, yeah, the bouquet is good.
00:43:41.120And Elections Alberta is expecting an 85% turnout
00:43:46.180We have never had 85% turnout for anything like this.
00:43:51.200If there's an 85% turnout, the separatists lose big time.
00:43:56.700Now, they have promised they're not going to go away anywhere, but at least they lose some credibility if the vote is 65-35 or if it's 70-25.
00:44:08.020Whatever it is, if they get trounced, they don't have the same leverage than if there's a low turnout, and they won't win with a low turnout either, I don't think.
00:44:18.620But they could end up with 40% of the vote, which then lets them say, aha, see, there are lots of people who agree with us, and so therefore you have to listen to us going forward.
00:44:29.760But no, I don't think the announcement yesterday makes an enormous difference in the outcome, because I think the outcome was already set in stone months ago.
00:44:41.620You know, I keep seeing people say, including, you know, smart folks that I like, like Norman Spector, former top bureaucrat in Ottawa, former top bureaucrat in B.C., and he says, based on his experience with how Quebec's been able to use it, Alberta should have a strong vote for option two so they can hold the knife to the throat in Ottawa and get what they want.
00:45:04.260And I just look economically at what has happened to Quebec.
00:45:09.220And Quebec, when I was born, Montreal was the business center of Canada.
00:45:15.380By the time I was leaving high school, Montreal was no longer the business capital.