Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - August 06, 2026


SOCIALIST REVOLUTION SURGES AS HORMUZ PEACE DEAL NEARS


Episode Stats


Length

48 minutes

Words per minute

186.67

Word count

9,043

Sentence count

473

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

sentences flagged

Hate speech

33

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, it's Jack. I wanted to let you know that we're starting a new push for subscriptions here on Human Events Daily.
00:00:09.340 So make sure that when you're listening to this podcast, you hit subscribe, you download it, and you share it with five of your friends.
00:00:16.720 Make sure they're all going and downloading as well, because we need to get the signal out as much as possible.
00:00:22.440 Look, we've done so much over the past couple of years since this show started, and we're only going to do so much more.
00:00:29.360 Let's get it.
00:00:59.360 INFORMED NINE INCIDENTS, SEVEN STATES IN TOTAL.
00:01:02.280 THE FBI HAS WARNED THAT IRANIAN-AFFILIATED
00:01:05.280 CYBER ACTORS ARE TARGETING INTERNET-CONNECTED INDUSTRIAL
00:01:08.880 CONTROL SYSTEMS USED BY U.S. CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE,
00:01:12.420 INCLUDING WATER AND WASTEWATER FACILITIES.
00:01:15.520 BUT UNTIL THIS POINT, THE WHITE HOUSE HAS TRIED TO AVOID
00:01:18.640 BLAMING IRAN.
00:01:20.560 WE HEARD IN MINNESOTA THERE WAS A CYBER ATTACK AND THEY BLAME IT
00:01:25.000 ON IRAN. I DON'T THINK SO.
00:01:26.240 I think I blame it on Minnesota because they're grossly incompetent.
00:01:29.500 On this vote, the yeas are eight, the nays are five, and the motion is agreed to.
00:01:32.740 The Senate Homeland Security Committee voted to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt
00:01:39.120 for his testimony last week where he refused to answer questions.
00:01:45.660 He cited the Fifth Amendment, the right to not incriminate himself more than 100 times.
00:01:51.280 The committee voted to hold him in contempt for that testimony or lack of testimony.
00:01:55.260 Now it will be up to the Justice Department, presumably, to decide whether to prosecute.
00:02:00.100 After a string of primary wins in very blue states, I might add,
00:02:03.480 the Democratic Socialists of America are increasingly becoming a political force.
00:02:08.120 The base of the Democratic Party just wants radicals. 0.52
00:02:11.160 It wants these DSA types.
00:02:12.460 It wants people who hate even the idea of private property ownership.
00:02:16.840 But it also, I think, tells us that that particular set of ideas is very popular
00:02:22.460 in places you wouldn't expect.
00:02:24.340 Because Al-Sayed, he's this guy who holds himself out as a working class hero.
00:02:28.880 He's a guy who's going to fight for the working class. 0.55
00:02:30.820 How does he fight for the working class? 1.00
00:02:32.860 By flooding his state and his country with low-wage immigrants. 1.00
00:02:38.200 Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily. 1.00
00:02:43.380 Today is August 6, 2026.
00:02:47.120 Anno, dominate.
00:02:48.620 And folks, we are in the midst of a socialist revolution. 0.99
00:02:54.180 Now, you might say, oh, but Jack, socialism sucks. 0.89
00:02:57.980 Oh, but Jack, I don't want to be in a socialist revolution. 0.98
00:03:00.780 Well, unfortunately, the socialists are not listening to you.
00:03:05.100 They're not listening to me either.
00:03:06.220 Believe me, I've tried. 1.00
00:03:07.820 I don't know if they're just dumb. 1.00
00:03:10.200 I don't know if they're just tone deaf. 0.99
00:03:11.840 But I do know this, that they are finding things, emotional triggers, that make people upset.
00:03:18.340 And one of those things that a lot of people are upset about right now, believe it or not, online and across the country is, of course, the cost of living.
00:03:26.760 It's now, in some polls, being seen as the number one issue in the 2026 midterm elections.
00:03:34.820 And I'm not even entirely sure how it all got started.
00:03:38.000 I was talking about gas prices earlier this week, and then last week I sort of got into it with Kevin O'Leary and his gold Rolex, a $2 million Rolex, and I said, you know, you can't be bragging about stuff like that and going on and talking like that if you want to win politically and if you don't want to upset these people.
00:04:02.760 But somehow we got on the topic of burritos. Yes, we got on the topic of burritos. And of course, my friend Andrew Colvette from Turning Point USA has I was had come came in on this and J.D. Vance came in on this.
00:04:20.460 But I did want to go in and talk about all this because it's very similar to what I was talking about in terms of having an economic system that serves the national good and having an economic system that understands the needs of the people first.
00:04:36.220 And, you know, burritos sort of became this proxy system for debating all of this.
00:04:42.360 We're all sort of debating burritos.
00:04:44.120 So I wanted to go back, ladies and gentlemen, I wanted to go back, back, back to an old video, an old advertisement, actually, from everyone's favorite, those authentic Mexican cuisine connoisseurs over at Taco Bell.
00:05:00.640 Guys, let's play it.
00:05:03.540 How long has it been since you had something good?
00:05:06.960 I mean, something delicious, something dynamite.
00:05:09.540 Well, Taco Bell has a food I like.
00:05:11.800 So good, so good, so good, so good
00:05:14.160 Three menus, indulge yourself
00:05:16.660 With a chicken soft taco or a mix
00:05:18.460 Look at those prices
00:05:19.400 So good, so good
00:05:32.600 Guys
00:05:37.460 79 cents
00:05:39.780 89 cents 99 cents for a taco and for a soft taco this was in living memory i can certainly remember
00:05:53.620 this when i was in high school so that would be the 2000s right everybody can remember the
00:06:00.460 dollar menu at mcdonald's everyone can remember the value menu at taco bell and
00:06:08.460 this is something again it's not that long ago and people will say well oh you know you could
00:06:16.180 still find cheap stuff or people other people are saying you know there's this debate we'll just
00:06:20.280 make stuff at home if you just make stuff at home it's going to be cheaper i know it's cheaper if
00:06:23.620 you make stuff at home that's not the point though the point is that when you're in one of
00:06:28.320 these political debates and you're up against socialists the socialists are going to be saying
00:06:34.080 They're going to be saying, we will make things cheaper.
00:06:38.940 Or in the case of Mondami, give stuff away for free.
00:06:42.980 What did Barris say yesterday on the program?
00:06:45.820 He said, you're never going to make people more afraid of socialism than they are of not being able to pay their bills.
00:06:54.960 They're never going to be more afraid of socialism than they are of being afraid of not being able to feed their children.
00:07:02.400 And that's the situation.
00:07:03.580 That's the situation, and that's why I contend the socialists are on the rise.
00:07:10.860 Right back, Jack Posobiec, Human Events Daily.
00:07:30.060 Where is Jack?
00:07:32.380 Where is Jack?
00:07:33.580 Where is he? Jack, I want to see you. Great job, Jack. Thank you. What a job you do. You know,
00:07:43.580 we have an incredible thing. We're always talking about the fake news and the bad,
00:07:47.020 but we have guys, and these are the guys who should be getting Pulisic.
00:07:52.720 All right, folks, Jack Posobiec, back live, human events daily. Folks in a world that is
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00:09:01.300 Very excited now to have on someone that you all know.
00:09:05.400 First time, first time on the program, folks.
00:09:07.880 It is Trace Gallagher.
00:09:09.280 You know him, of course, as the host of Late News.
00:09:11.240 And he's the author of the new book, Turns Out They Were Right All Along.
00:09:15.300 Trace, how are you?
00:09:17.200 Jack, I'm great.
00:09:18.020 Thank you for having me on the show.
00:09:19.140 I very much appreciate it.
00:09:20.660 I was I was enthralled by the big burrito intro, the burrito beef, as we're talking about, because you're exactly right.
00:09:28.260 It is this entire concept of, you know, they're taking this Taco Bell stuff and they're saying, yeah, back in the back in the late 90s, the early 2000s, you can get tacos for thirty nine cents and seventy nine cents in a buck.
00:09:38.920 And and you get you know, there's they had combinations you could do for two bucks.
00:09:43.760 You get drinks and and an extra, you know, quesadilla or whatever.
00:09:47.900 And it was true. And I was saying, you know, we do this on the show a lot. Before COVID, I had the receipt in my pocket that was $9.90 for this burrito that I would get across the street a lot. And then after COVID, that same burrito, same ingredients was $15.50. And you think that is an incredible rise in prices in just a short span of time.
00:10:11.160 But but when these socialists, democratic socialists are trying to sell you their spiel of, oh, no, no, we're going to we're going to make things affordable.
00:10:19.460 We're going to get the prices down. They forget that it was their side that brought the prices up and getting prices down is easier said than done.
00:10:27.700 I mean, if you take eggs, everybody can promise to get eggs down in six months because chickens produce eggs all the time.
00:10:34.620 But when you're talking about beef and other stuff, it's going to take a while because you can only grow the cows so fast.
00:10:42.680 You can only turn these contracts so fast.
00:10:45.820 So turning the ship, turning these massive ships, you know, when you're talking about prices is going to take a little while, Jack, because that's kind of the way the economy works.
00:10:56.000 And I think these socialists, what they leave out of all of their their hype about they're going to they're going to give you free health care.
00:11:04.560 It's going to be great is the fact that when they talk about Medicare for all, they're also talking about private insurance for none because Medicare takes everything and everybody's got to wait in line six months to get a get a checkup.
00:11:17.720 And then everybody's taxes are going to go way up. That's the way this whole thing works, which is why we still have private insurance.
00:11:25.900 because it is the best system available, and I don't think the Republicans have done enough
00:11:31.520 to hammer that point home, is they want to open the prisons. They want your private insurance
00:11:37.760 to go away. They want to open the prisons. They want to get rid of police. They want to get rid
00:11:42.300 of ICE. And you think, why are you so in favor of criminals, and yet you're not in favor of
00:11:49.080 you know, of Israel. Why is what is going on with why is the hate pointed in certain directions and
00:11:56.360 not other directions? And I would love for somebody from the DSA or even supported by the
00:12:01.960 DSA or DSA candidates like Abdul El Saeed and get an explanation and you never get it. All you get
00:12:09.560 is the talking points of how they're going to lower everything, how they're going to make,
00:12:13.580 you know, America into this utopia where we all shop at the same stores and it's 30 percent
00:12:18.960 less and we're going to do it all for you and they know it's bs and everybody knows it's bs but
00:12:23.860 people are falling for it because people love headlines and they hate to read the actual text
00:12:29.160 because it's too much damn work no they they do and and they know that they know that every single
00:12:35.240 time this has ever been tried anywhere around the world uh i come from a polish family believe me 0.87
00:12:40.300 the polls to tell you right now that that it does not work and the polls were very very excited to
00:12:46.000 get their freedom back in the 1990s, 1991. Actually, funny enough, I believe 1991 is
00:12:51.840 exactly when that Taco Bell commercial came out. So, you know, it's sort of this tie between the
00:12:57.580 cheap burritos, the fall of communism, the systems, they fall apart. And in fact, I don't
00:13:02.440 believe Taco Bell, but I know it was sort of McDonald's and Burger King. These were some of
00:13:06.740 the franchises that were opening up after the Berlin Wall came down, if the Iron Curtain came
00:13:11.820 down, they were starting to open up and people really viewed those as ways to, you know,
00:13:17.120 become more in the modern world.
00:13:19.080 Now, that being said, I, I do actually, if I'm in Poland, I'm probably not going to be
00:13:22.380 ordering tacos and burritos, but you know, I'm probably going to go for Polish food,
00:13:26.520 but, but it's, it speaks to the wider point of what, what we're saying that these systems
00:13:30.960 sound good when, uh, when they're, um, you know, when they're promoted, they never tell
00:13:35.820 you about the downsides and they know, they know that it doesn't work because it's been
00:13:41.000 try it again and again because they don't care. What they ultimately care about is power. What
00:13:46.080 they ultimately care about is the power over your country, the power over your decisions,
00:13:51.080 the power over corporations, economy, the, as you say, the police, the prisons, they want total
00:13:56.220 power. All the other stuff that doesn't even enter into the equation. And, you know, actually
00:14:01.100 it's, it's interesting. And because one of the pieces where, which did lead to all of this,
00:14:05.960 of course, was COVID. And I think the disastrous response of the Biden administration and the
00:14:12.180 lockdowns by so many blue governors that led to all of this inflation. And we just saw the news
00:14:17.080 and Trace, I had to get your your take on this first bite at the apple that we just saw that
00:14:22.540 Dr. Fauci, the guy who led the response to all of this, that a lot of people are saying, you know
00:14:29.920 what? That guy needs some accountability. He has just been held in contempt from the Senate,
00:14:36.340 the Senate committee. And it was this situation where he refused to answer any questions. Now,
00:14:41.560 people say, well, what about the Fifth Amendment? He had a pardon, though. So if he has a pardon,
00:14:46.540 does the Fifth Amendment apply? This is actually contempt. And Trace, I wanted you to weigh in on
00:14:51.900 that because, again, what are we talking about? Centralized government power, one person making
00:14:56.880 decisions for everyone sounds a lot like socialism which is why you have the liberal media jack that's
00:15:03.580 actually you know fighting this and standing up for fauci because they were complicit they are
00:15:07.460 the ones that helped him do his and in turn we found out from his diary that he was he was
00:15:13.800 literally sprawled by the medium and he loved the attention he wrote about the attention and every
00:15:19.740 single day one of his first entries was oh man they want me on this show and oh i you know i'm
00:15:25.480 I've become famous across. And, you know, the fame took him out of the mission, took him away from the goal, which was to actually guide people in the proper direction during COVID.
00:15:36.160 And in that goal, you know, Fauci forgot about other opinions and other people.
00:15:42.260 In fact, he demeaned the Jay Bhattacharyas of the world. He demeaned these people as being irrelevant.
00:15:48.340 When they wrote the Great Barrington debate and they were talking about differing ways to handle COVID and let's not focus as much on vaccines and putting people inside, we need to really focus on putting the elderly, the people who are sick and vulnerable, putting them aside and letting everybody else kind of live their lives because this is going to be the best thing.
00:16:12.780 And the left shut that narrative down. And every time someone tried to bring it in and we saw this, I mean, social media shut it down. The liberal media shut it down. They were all complicit in this. And Fauci was their hero because he went along with it.
00:16:28.780 He's the one that bragged about the governor of California, you know, took his advice and shut down the schools and shut down the shops and shut down any, you know, non-essential business and how he also convinced the governor or the mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, to shut down the schools.
00:16:48.240 So he did that knowing, knowing that this was not the right move. And then later he said, I had nothing to do with shutting down the schools. Oh, yes, you did. And you wrote about it. And that's why we wanted answers.
00:16:59.820 And 111 times that he took the fifth was a slap in the face to everybody who had to sit behind glass, Jack, and watch their loved ones die because you could not go in because it was some ridiculous law or rule that you could not go in and actually hug or spend time with a loved one who was dying because of COVID.
00:17:22.340 They made these draconian rules. People lost their livelihoods, their jobs, their military service because they would not take the vaccine.
00:17:31.980 And we now realize that they told us, oh, if you take the vaccine, it's going to stop the spread.
00:17:38.060 No, it's not going to stop the spread. Didn't stop you from spreading. Didn't stop you from getting.
00:17:42.880 And they didn't tell us that until after all the controversy was starting to wind down.
00:17:47.160 They screwed up COVID. And Fauci is emblematic of that screw up. And they refused. They refused to say, you know what, we got it wrong. We're sorry. And Fauci, you know, saying nothing 111 times is part and parcel of that bigger picture.
00:18:04.220 well and and you know i i don't usually tell this story uh publicly but you know perhaps i should
00:18:09.940 since it's come back in the news so we had our second um kid and it was december of 2020 so
00:18:16.200 kind of the height of you know these these covid restrictions and um first of all they were they
00:18:22.820 first they tried to tell me that i couldn't be in the room um because we and believe it or not we
00:18:28.580 both tested positive i said well if we're both positive what's the difference and we'd had it
00:18:32.760 before. So that wasn't even a strong case. They said, well, you can't even be in the room.
00:18:36.840 Then they said that I could, I wasn't allowed to leave and come back. So if I wanted to,
00:18:40.460 you know, go get my wife, something from the store, you know, pregnant women sometimes get, 0.94
00:18:44.400 get urges and cravings. I don't know if people have ever, ever had a pregnant wife before,
00:18:48.020 but you know, sometimes they want something. And as the dad, you can do that. And then the very
00:18:52.700 last bit, they tried to tell my wife that she had to wear a mask while she was giving birth.
00:19:00.200 Let me tell you something, Trace. She took one look at them and said, if you try to put that over my face, something is going to happen to you because, no, I need to be able to breathe because we're going to make sure everything comes out all right.
00:19:14.340 And it was perfect. It was a wonderful birth. But I will never forget that. I'll never forget that. And Fauci is the face of it. That was socialism.
00:19:22.840 Right back. Jack Posobiec, Human Events Daily with Trace Gallagher.
00:19:30.200 Influences. These are influences. And they're friends of mine. Jack Posobiec. Where's Jack?
00:19:37.960 Jack. He's done a great job.
00:19:42.420 All right, folks. Jack Posobiec. We are back live here. Human Events Daily. Real America's
00:19:50.100 voice. And, you know, folks, we you know, we know that America is turning 250 and we're not
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00:21:27.680 All right, we're back on with Trace Gallagher.
00:21:30.000 And Trace, I was so excited to hear this, that you have a new book coming out.
00:21:34.980 I do.
00:21:35.860 And thank you for helping me promote it, Jack.
00:21:37.840 It's called, it turns out they were right all along.
00:21:40.100 And the subtitle is Life Lessons That I Learned, dot, dot, dot, eventually, because, you know,
00:21:45.200 I pick up things kind of slow.
00:21:47.040 You know, it's true.
00:21:47.700 And the story is about me.
00:21:49.400 Sometimes the uptake is a little, you know.
00:21:51.920 Yeah, I'm a little slow, but when I get something, I never let go.
00:21:55.540 So, you know, the stories are about me, but the stories are also about people that had an enormous impact on me.
00:22:01.280 Some of them are famous.
00:22:02.260 A lot of the names people will recognize, and some of them won't.
00:22:05.700 You won't know them, but you will get to know all of these people and kind of realize that they were pretty savvy.
00:22:11.880 You know, whether it's the greatest basketball coach who ever lived, and John Wooden and the advice that he gave me,
00:22:17.460 And, you know, a guy who made the biggest Hollywood deals on record would give me some
00:22:23.260 advice.
00:22:24.080 And yeah, you just kind of sometimes you accept it and sometimes you pass it off.
00:22:28.060 There are stories in there about, you know, teaching Jimmy Buffett how to water ski back
00:22:32.240 in the day.
00:22:32.880 And I used to be a professional water skier and, you know, just interesting stories.
00:22:37.740 And the takeaway from all of them is that, you know, what's interesting about life is
00:22:42.420 that you kind of go by the five F's, right? Which is faith, family, friends, fortitude, and fun.
00:22:50.260 And you can't get from one to five. You can't get from to fun until you have the base, which is the
00:22:57.220 faith, your family, your friends, surrounding yourself with good people. Fortitude, because
00:23:01.460 you need the courage, Jack, as you attest to on your show and in your life every day, you need
00:23:07.220 the courage to be able to try things, to be able to do things, to be able to go out and do the right
00:23:12.300 things and you need that support system to be successful in going out and doing that. And then
00:23:17.320 eventually you can achieve the results and the goals that you want. And there's also stories in
00:23:22.080 this book about the early years of Fox News Channel. And it's interesting to a lot of people.
00:23:27.040 I was one of the first correspondents hired by Fox News back in 1996. And the funny thing about
00:23:32.600 the story is that I went into New York during my job interview in the summer of 1996. And I met
00:23:38.520 with roger ales and roger ales you know was in his office and uh he'd have like three or four
00:23:43.840 televisions in there and roger would tell me he said listen tracy i want to let you know that we
00:23:48.240 really like your tape we really like you on camera he says but i gotta tell you he said i don't like 0.92
00:23:53.080 all that damn curly hair i don't like curly hair the curly hair distracts people and i look at him
00:23:58.800 like are you kidding it just doesn't look good he goes i'm gonna tell you a story tracy but i 0.99
00:24:03.640 I watch television with the sound down. And he goes, when I see something that kind of catches
00:24:09.700 my eye, I turn the sound up. And I'm looking at him and he says, and you know what? When I see
00:24:15.980 curly hair, I almost never want to turn the sound up. So the tease on this is that I, you know,
00:24:22.440 in the book, you will find out how Trace Gallagher, the 1996 version of Trace Gallagher,
00:24:28.720 actually made Roger Ailes turn the sound up
00:24:31.680 on the television, curly hair and all.
00:24:34.340 And it's true, and that's kind of
00:24:36.460 what the book is all about, Jack.
00:24:39.420 Well, I mean, that's just such a great story.
00:24:42.040 And I've got to read that part.
00:24:44.460 You know, we should pull up a pic.
00:24:45.880 Guys, let's find an old picture of Trace
00:24:47.300 while he's on.
00:24:48.420 You know, it's sort of the, you know, the,
00:24:51.340 so you were like out of point break, basically, right?
00:24:54.960 You know, you're like, I don't know if you're,
00:24:56.640 more Swayze than Keanu, I suppose.
00:24:58.720 I said that I go out, listen, I can cut my, I can do whatever I want.
00:25:01.740 I can cut my hair. I can, I just don't know what to do with it.
00:25:04.760 It's just all I have. I mean, it's, it's kind of my hair.
00:25:07.540 So it's going to, it's going to, you know, get longer and shorter and I'll do
00:25:10.420 whatever I can. And, uh, you know, eventually I,
00:25:13.360 eventually I won him over and it's been 30 years of Fox news channel.
00:25:16.600 And it's been, it's been a great run. In fact,
00:25:18.560 the 30th anniversary is October 7th of this year. So it's been,
00:25:23.080 it's been quite the ride, Jack, but it's,
00:25:25.120 the book is kind of a little bit about everything.
00:25:27.200 But it goes to show you, right, that he, this is also, that's a lesson, right? That's a lesson in how people perceive and receive information. It's a lesson in optics. It's a lesson in just if you're doing media, if you're in this world, or lots of people who are trying to start out with social media these days, TikTok and other things, that's something to think about is, you know, you might think, well, I just, this is how I look, but are you thinking about how someone else, the audience, right, is perceiving that?
00:25:56.480 So even that is a, is a great example. Now, I just want to be clear. Um, so you're saying that
00:26:01.940 if I read the book, I'll be able to, uh, I will also be able to become a water boarder because,
00:26:08.200 or excuse me, a water, a water surfer. I've already done the water boarding at Gitmo. Um,
00:26:12.500 that, uh, that, uh, because, you know, as, as a Polish guy, my, my, my, my skills on the water
00:26:18.360 surfing aren't so great. Well, neither were Jimmy Buffett's just so you're in good company there,
00:26:23.300 because you know neither were his skills on the water very good but yeah it's it is it's the whole
00:26:28.660 it's the part and parcel of you know the bigger picture which is fundamentals of life really help
00:26:33.520 everybody jack no matter where you start or what you want to do the fundamentals are the best way
00:26:37.900 it's john wooden's advice to me which said you know of all the things you wanted him to teach
00:26:42.240 you how to dribble and you wanted you know you wanted all the inside of the greatest college
00:26:45.760 basketball coach ever because i was a crappy basketball player and john wooden literally
00:26:50.700 got up to the microphone and he said you know boys sit down take off your shoes and socks you
00:26:54.740 should have two pairs of socks you put the first pair on the right way and you put the second pair
00:26:59.540 on inside out if you do that you will never get blisters you cannot play back trace the book is
00:27:04.980 amazing it is called turns out they were right all along trace god bless and thanks so much for
00:27:10.480 coming on and joining us today thank you jack all right check it out books but folks check the book
00:27:17.180 out wherever. I believe it's out for
00:27:19.300 pre-order right now and you'll be able to get it everywhere
00:27:21.200 very soon. Right back, Jack Pasova,
00:27:22.900 Kingdom Events Daily.
00:27:29.840 ...communist on the faculty
00:27:31.120 of one university is
00:27:33.240 one communist too many.
00:27:43.600 One communist among
00:27:45.260 All right, folks, Jack Posobiec back live, human events, daily, Real America's Voice. 0.79
00:28:00.300 And folks, Allegiance Gold is one of the big supporters of the coverage on our show here.
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00:28:51.740 All right, I wanted to get in now, folks, on more on this question of Iran, where we're at, a potential deal, and even the Strait of Hormuz and where everything is at.
00:29:03.400 And in fact, so I just on Timcast IRL last night and kind of broke down a little bit of an analysis because I was asked the question of what I thought would come next.
00:29:12.840 And so here's what I said.
00:29:13.960 So there's territorial waters there.
00:29:15.680 If you if you look at it, one is Iran, one is Oman.
00:29:18.560 And of course, it's been governed by the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention.
00:29:23.920 And so as a as an international transit waterway.
00:29:27.520 And so but effectively what's been going on so effectively in the past, it was just sort of open.
00:29:31.940 Right.
00:29:32.200 But there was only dredged in the center because the large tankers weren't able to get through the large hole, especially when it's full, so it's going to be lower with the super tankers.
00:29:41.400 But now the Omanis have kind of cleared out a route that's completely to the south because they call it the Hugging Oman route.
00:29:49.400 And the reason that that matters is because it doesn't stray into Iranian waters at all.
00:29:53.980 And so they're saying, hey, if this thing doesn't go into Iranian waters, what is your claim for messing with the shipping?
00:30:01.500 While Ron, of course, is saying, like, well, we want to control all shipping and and we want to control all trade through that.
00:30:07.440 And so what seems to be happening, at least as far as I know, I haven't, you know, I don't have any direct information as to the current negotiations that are taking place.
00:30:17.840 But what seems to be happening is this sort of like dual route scenario, like you say, like a northern route, southern route.
00:30:24.860 All right. And so come in to weigh in on that.
00:30:27.960 We've got Andrew Day. He's the senior editor of the American Conservative.
00:30:31.500 Andrew how are you I'm good thanks for having me back yeah so Andrew I mean that's that's just kind
00:30:37.300 of my spitballing you know reading the tea leaves I could like I said I could be completely wrong
00:30:42.100 but on how it shakes out I think it's it's you know it could be anyone's guess at this time
00:30:47.160 but but the idea being that it seems to me that it's almost like two routes seem to be what's
00:30:53.600 opening up and I wanted to want to get your take on that and really where things stand in general
00:30:57.560 so it's a little unclear at the moment but right now it seems like iran and oman are closing in
00:31:05.540 on some kind of deal to govern how the strait of hormuz operates and under that arrangement
00:31:10.120 iran would be coordinating with ships especially going inbound oman would be handling ships
00:31:15.940 outbound but they would still kind of consult with iran to get approval for that so iran would
00:31:20.980 still be coordinating this these routes they're driving a pretty hard bargain on the strait of
00:31:25.280 Hormuz, to be honest, especially after the Memorandum of Understanding collapsed over
00:31:29.640 disagreements about Lebanon and Israel's military campaign there, and also disagreements about the
00:31:34.560 Strait of Hormuz. And what I was told from sources who are involved in regional mediation efforts
00:31:38.720 is that Iran is driving a hard bargain on Hormuz, specifically because of the disagreement that
00:31:43.420 emerged over Lebanon. They wanted to be sure that they maintained control of their leverage.
00:31:47.440 And right now it does sound like they want to control the Strait of Hormuz, essentially. They
00:31:51.820 They want to coordinate with these ships, make them so that the ships have to basically reach
00:31:55.720 out to the IRGC and get some sort of approval. So that's a big ask. And if that arrangement is
00:32:01.660 indeed what we are left with at the end of this war, it's going to get a lot of pushback. It's
00:32:06.080 going to be pretty ugly. But what I would say is people who are upset about that and complaining
00:32:10.600 about that, they're usually misdirecting their anger. The problem is the war itself. It's not
00:32:16.480 that the war is ending. It's that the war started in the first place, because as you mentioned in
00:32:20.440 that clip. The Strait of Hormuz was open before this war started, and now Iran is driving a hard 0.97
00:32:25.900 bargain. It still remains to be seen whether they're going to be charging tolls. They would
00:32:30.000 probably call them some sort of service fee for environmental damages or whatever. I don't think
00:32:35.240 the Trump administration has publicly signaled yet that they would be okay with that, although
00:32:39.420 we did get some comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that suggested that they weren't
00:32:43.800 explicitly ruling it out, which is interesting. And we've gotten mixed reporting about whether
00:32:48.300 the Iranians want to do that, but it does seem like they're going to have some sort of control
00:32:51.680 over the Strait of Hormuz, or at least that that's what they're angling for here. 0.98
00:32:56.280 Well, that's exactly right. And so that's why, you know, basically that's the status quo ante,
00:33:01.240 right? So the status quo ante, the state of affairs before the conflict took place was that
00:33:06.420 it was this international transit corridor. And what the Iranians have pointed out and the
00:33:11.120 Omanis have pointed out that technically there is no, there are no international waters here
00:33:16.940 because it's so narrow that this is the territorial waters of each.
00:33:23.140 And under the law of the sea, when you have a situation there
00:33:25.960 that two nations' territorial waters meet,
00:33:29.720 then you split the difference, basically.
00:33:32.140 Because it's typically 12 nautical miles is the standard on that. 0.86
00:33:35.960 And so the point being is that Iran really does have the ability, right?
00:33:42.540 And this is something that I think a lot of people have missed
00:33:45.020 when they were analyzing the situation completely is that they missed that Iran was able to use 0.69
00:33:50.940 their asymmetrical advantage here with this situation to be able to use it to their advantage.
00:33:57.340 And to your point, even if Iran only has a couple of drones left or only a couple of small boats 0.90
00:34:05.480 left with rocket launchers or whatever it is, some small munitions, they're still able to 0.76
00:34:13.240 effectuate this level of control over that strait because it comes down to, and I've
00:34:18.240 said on the program so many times, that it just comes down to if you're the captain of
00:34:22.560 one of these ships, one of these super tankers, and you've got a billion dollars or more in
00:34:27.340 terms of your cargo, and you've got your insurer and your reinsurer, Swiss reinsurance, coming
00:34:33.440 in saying, hey, we don't think you can go through that strait, then you're going to
00:34:37.980 just park. And so this has always been the card that Iran was going to play if they were backed 0.66
00:34:44.680 into a corner. Yeah, I totally agree with that. I mean, for as long as there are some guys who 1.00
00:34:50.540 have speedboats and shoulder weapons and who, you know, work for the Iranians or represent their 0.72
00:34:55.420 interests, there's going to be potentially a problem here because they can harass ships. 0.90
00:34:58.920 And it's not just a matter of whether a ship can freely transit and kind of make a run for it and
00:35:03.980 get through it. It's a matter of whether the captains of those ships are willing to take that
00:35:08.260 risk. And it's a matter of whether the insurance companies are willing to take that risk. And what
00:35:12.300 we've seen, even when the U.S. said it was going to be helping them transit and coordinating that,
00:35:18.200 giving them an escort, the insurance companies and the captains have generally been unwilling
00:35:22.680 to do this. The Trump administration did a good job of getting some oil out, but it wasn't at
00:35:26.880 levels that we saw before the war, before hostilities. And clearly there's going to have
00:35:30.680 to be some sort of diplomatic arrangement. And what I would point out is just this key point that
00:35:35.440 in war, you need to have an understanding of your strategy. What is the strategic logic of the
00:35:40.640 hostilities you're waging? Because obviously it's true, even with this munitions shortage that
00:35:45.220 everyone is talking about, where we're running out of interceptors and these so-called exquisite 0.87
00:35:49.000 munitions, the long-range precision strike missiles, we still could bomb Iran all day, 0.97
00:35:54.660 bomb their buildings, kill their leaders or their IRGC members and stuff. But what is the logic of 0.98
00:36:00.320 that, because even if that led to some sort of general collapse of Iran, a country of more than
00:36:05.040 90 million people, that wouldn't necessarily solve this problem. We could just see terrorists
00:36:10.260 kind of fill the power vacuum, and we would still have this problem that the Strait of Hormuz is
00:36:13.920 just very close to Iran. And so that's why I think this is going to have to end in some kind of
00:36:18.740 diplomatic arrangement. I'm expecting that there would be a lot of pushback on Trump. I imagine
00:36:23.260 that he feels pretty stuck right now. He feels like he's stuck between these different options
00:36:27.320 that are both bad. Continuing the war and, you know, wasting even more of these munitions that
00:36:32.540 I just mentioned, that would be really bad for American interests or getting some sort of 0.70
00:36:36.240 arrangement with Iran that they're OK with over the Strait of Hormuz. That's going to be politically
00:36:40.880 very dicey for him. But I think that he should just go for it. And as I mentioned, when these
00:36:44.920 people inevitably start pushing back, we should remind them this is your fault. This war has been
00:36:50.120 a costly distraction, self-destructive of American power and otherwise nearly irrelevant to American
00:36:56.380 interests, except to the extent that it has been bad for us as we try to pursue our interests. 0.97
00:37:01.560 And the fools and traitors, frankly, and foreign interests who pushed for this war and said that 0.98
00:37:06.480 we'd be able to get regime change in just a few weeks and that it was going to be a new regime 1.00
00:37:10.540 that loved America or something. They were selling Trump a bill of goods. And now, unfortunately,
00:37:15.060 the bill has come due and it's not what they promised. And this is where you mentioned
00:37:20.480 munitions as well but but also when this is why that when the saudis called on saturday because
00:37:26.400 of course you know since since we've last spoken there there had been this potential president was
00:37:31.200 looking at a range of options he called it a world war ii scale attack on iran and then of course if
00:37:37.200 iran responded they came out and said that they were going to strike the saudi oil fields that if
00:37:41.440 iran's energy infrastructure was hit they were going to hit the saudis and and other gulf partners
00:37:46.160 as well. And the story we got, and then it later broke, and the president himself actually said
00:37:50.800 this, that when the Saudis called, they said, look, even if we had a full complement of air
00:37:55.700 interceptors, that's the way this works, that if Iran's able to slip a few drones or even just a
00:38:01.420 few rockets, a few missiles or the Houthis into those oil fields, they're so large, you're not
00:38:06.720 going to be able to effectively protect them completely from the air. They only need a couple 0.64
00:38:12.040 hits in for that entire oil field to potentially go up in flames. And so this gets into the
00:38:19.240 asymmetrical warfare threats in the Middle East. Jack Posobiec, right back, Real America's Voice,
00:38:26.560 Human Events Daily.
00:38:42.040 All right, folks, Jack Posobiec.
00:38:46.260 We're back live here at Human Events Daily.
00:38:48.300 Our guest is Andrew Day from The American Conservative.
00:38:51.360 And, Andrew, so we've just walked through the, I think, the unique threats, the asymmetric threats in the Middle East.
00:38:58.560 Of course, all this comes down to oil.
00:39:00.620 And one of the phrases I like to use on the program is when you're dealing with geopolitics,
00:39:06.580 Cherche le Petrol, look for the oil. And this is exactly where the threats come in when we're
00:39:14.000 dealing with the Middle East, because it's not just a military question. That's what makes it
00:39:17.560 an economic question. And this, of course, is the situation the administration has found themselves
00:39:22.960 bound up in. And so when we look at, as you say, the membrane of understanding obviously did not
00:39:30.360 hold. Are there pieces from it that could be brought forward potentially? And really, when
00:39:35.640 it comes down to it, what are the impediments to peace here? It seems to me like the administration
00:39:42.060 and the Gulf allies are very interested in turning the page on this. 0.93
00:39:47.760 Yeah, totally. I mean, I think that the entire MOU potentially could still hold. I mean, 0.69
00:39:52.560 there is a chance that Iran and the U.S. return to the MOU and maybe clarify some of its language
00:39:57.660 so that there's not this misunderstanding or ambiguity on the issues of the Strait of Hormuz
00:40:01.660 in Lebanon. That's one possibility. I think that that would probably be a good thing. It would lock
00:40:06.520 in Iran's nuclear program because I believe under the MOU, they committed to not advancing it,
00:40:11.600 which is difficult for them to do now anyway, because the Trump administration genuinely did
00:40:15.360 a lot of damage to their nuclear infrastructure. And you mentioned that the oil situation is top
00:40:20.960 of mind right now. And that's an economic problem. That's also a political problem,
00:40:24.740 because oftentimes with wars, it's kind of difficult to explain to Americans why those
00:40:29.200 foreign wars in these faraway places that they normally don't think a lot about are connected to
00:40:33.920 their interests. But with this war, it's not difficult at all because we started the war in
00:40:38.660 late February. And then very soon thereafter, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz effectively.
00:40:44.000 And then the gasoline prices in America went up. Those prices obviously are displayed prominently
00:40:48.740 on like every street in the country. So people recognize that. They recognize that it was because
00:40:53.480 of the Iran war that that happened. And that's a big part of why this war has been unpopular among
00:40:58.700 the American people. And so it's part of the political analysis for the Trump administration
00:41:04.280 that goes toward ending the war. But another big problem is basically the Israel lobby. I don't
00:41:09.080 know if you use that phrase, but I think it's kind of unavoidable to use it in this particular
00:41:12.560 context because the Israel lobby advances what they perceive to be the interests of Israel.
00:41:17.820 And Israel thinks that this is very bad for them. They wanted this war in the first place because
00:41:22.000 Iran is a regional adversary, the chief regional adversary of Israel, right? It's not the chief 0.86
00:41:28.120 adversary of the United States, we're a superpower surrounded by Canada, Mexico and fish, basically, 0.87
00:41:33.880 and Iran's a middle power on the other side of the war. So we didn't have or we didn't perceive 0.62
00:41:38.380 any major threat, certainly not an imminent one coming from Iran. But Iran is perceived by Israel
00:41:44.340 to be a threat. And that's a big part of the reason that we got into this. And it's also a 0.97
00:41:47.720 big part of the reason that it's difficult for Trump to end it. I had a column out today at the
00:41:52.100 American Conservative. It's called Israel Vetoes Trump in the Middle East. Again, I would encourage
00:41:56.660 people to read it. And I just walked through some recent developments in which President Trump has
00:42:01.200 tried to get something done in the Middle East. And then there was a big uproar from Israel and
00:42:05.660 its American supporters, and then he had to walk it back. So the most recent example pertains to
00:42:10.040 Gaza. President Trump has this board of peace, which he oversees, which is trying to get some
00:42:14.680 sort of stable peace deal in Gaza, some sort of arrangement that's good for Palestinians and
00:42:19.380 Israelis. He announced, I think last week or a couple of weeks ago, when the board of peace
00:42:23.700 announced that they had come to some sort of deal where as Hamas disarmed, Israel was going to
00:42:29.140 withdraw its forces. Israel came out and said, actually, we don't like that. We want Hamas to
00:42:33.740 withdraw and or to disarm and then we will withdraw. And then the Board of Peace changed
00:42:38.360 its position. They changed what they said the deal was. It's very similar to what we saw last month
00:42:42.280 when President Trump announced a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia to get that kingdom a civilian
00:42:48.100 nuclear energy program. There was pushback from the Israelis. They don't want to see any other
00:42:53.400 country and the region have a nuclear program. And so President Trump had to walk it back the
00:42:58.120 next day and say, actually, Saudi Arabia needs to normalize its relations with Israel before we can
00:43:03.000 do this. And then another example is very relevant to this Iran war. Early in President Trump's
00:43:08.540 administration, he wanted to get a nuclear deal with Iran to stop it from getting a nuclear weapon
00:43:13.100 to just block that path so that it would be impossible. And his administration had signaled
00:43:18.480 that they would be okay with iran continuing to enrich uranium at levels that are not nearly high
00:43:24.740 enough for weaponization to make a nuclear bomb with but are just high enough to have you know
00:43:29.880 civilian electricity basically that was the administration's position as far as i could tell
00:43:34.880 steve whitkoff said that that was the position but then the israel lobby really had a lot of pushback
00:43:40.360 you know netanyahu was relentless apac fdd this think tank the very hawkish think tank they didn't
00:43:47.160 like that at all. And then President Trump's administration basically moved the goalposts and
00:43:51.780 said Iran needed to have zero enrichment, which was a non-starter for Iran. They were never going
00:43:57.100 to agree with that according to their own statements and according to Iran experts. 0.81
00:44:00.860 And that's really what broke up the agreement and set us on this path toward what Israel wants to
00:44:05.220 be, a regime change war. So if Trump tries to get out of this, Israel, out of this war, I mean, 0.78
00:44:10.300 Israel is going to, they're going to freak out. They're not going to like that at all.
00:44:13.800 You know, they wanted a situation in the Middle East where the Arab countries were aligned with Israel against Iran.
00:44:19.940 And what this is shaping up to be is a Middle East where Iran is more integrated with the Arab countries and with Turkey.
00:44:28.140 And those countries are very wary of Israel and think that has caused a big mess in their neighborhood. 0.52
00:44:35.760 Well, and the way I've always put it is like this, is that Israel has different interests than the United States.
00:44:42.380 It's every country has different interests than the United States.
00:44:44.960 They have their interests.
00:44:45.660 We have our interests.
00:44:46.720 Katie Vance has pointed this out as well as the vice president.
00:44:49.580 And also the current and by the way, this is also the current government of Israel as well.
00:44:55.000 And so Bibi Netanyahu, for example, he's in a very slim electoral coalition in control of parliament right now as the prime minister.
00:45:03.180 And they have an election coming up in about two months time, give or take.
00:45:08.240 I believe it's October where their election is coming up.
00:45:10.920 And so that's one of the main reasons that he's pushing for a lot of this to keep going, because he wants to be able to say that I kept the United States and I kept the United States in this fight.
00:45:22.340 I kept the United States pushing and escalating with Iran because he's not not only is it in their geopolitical interest in their view, but it's also in his political interests, because if he it's really been that relationship that he has with President Trump that he's been reminding voters of.
00:45:40.260 That's why he went to the White House and held the meeting recently. 0.81
00:45:43.980 It's why Zelensky was there as well, even though Zelensky kind of wasn't able to seal the deal in terms of getting many, getting much support in terms of the asks of patriot missiles and licenses and all these things.
00:45:56.580 But so there's a whole electoral context to this that I just really feel gets kind of missed from the, you know, the Western discussion of this.
00:46:04.720 But if you just go and read like Times of Israel or Jerusalem Post or any of these outlets that are actually in Israel, you could see that they have a very robust conversation about it all the time.
00:46:15.440 Naftali Bennett is running against Bibi Netanyahu right now, and he's saying that, you know, this guy isn't able to get it done and all the rest.
00:46:23.960 So this is a guy who's fighting for his political future. And by the way, also potentially faces this this criminal case that could potentially come in because he loses immunity after he then.
00:46:36.700 But I'm talking about the in Israel. I'm not talking about the international court one that that could potentially kick in if he's not prime minister anymore.
00:46:44.320 So there's all of these pressures going on within Israel that totally seem to get lost from the conversation because we'll talk about the Iranian system all day long.
00:46:53.400 why don't we talk about this as well? It seems like it's fair game. 0.77
00:46:57.360 Yeah, totally. I think that that October election is a very important detail to pay attention to.
00:47:02.620 And it's come to be the case that Prime Minister Netanyahu's political interests are aligned with
00:47:07.260 continued war and especially keeping the U.S. involved in backing these Israeli wars against
00:47:11.980 its enemies, namely in this case, Iran, but also this so-called axis of resistance that is aligned
00:47:17.560 with Iran. And, you know, Bibi Netanyahu is Mr. Security. That is his brand within Israeli
00:47:23.540 domestic politics. So it's very important for him that he can kind of cash in on that and say,
00:47:28.320 see, I actually do provide security. And that became obviously more difficult
00:47:32.160 after the Hamas atrocities in 2023. And so he's really leaning into a more hardline militaristic
00:47:40.900 foreign policy to kind of overcome the potential reputational damage from that.
00:47:45.520 We should also go back all the way to 1996, I believe it was, when Netanyahu had authored for him something called the Clean Break Memo by his American neoconservative advisors.
00:47:56.020 It is. And we've actually done literally almost out of time for the show.
00:48:00.380 We've done full episodes on Clean Break and over the summer or excuse me, over the winter break.
00:48:04.640 And I hope people can go back and check that out.
00:48:07.700 Andrew, where can people follow you?
00:48:09.420 You can follow me on X at AKDay89 or you could just go to the American Conservative website.
00:48:14.680 I have a weekly column there
00:48:15.960 and we run a bunch of good stuff.
00:48:17.100 I'm also the senior editor there.
00:48:20.020 Thank you so much.
00:48:21.000 All right, folks,
00:48:21.780 two elections going on
00:48:23.040 and different things happening.
00:48:24.200 Ladies and gentlemen,
00:48:24.700 as always, you have my permission
00:48:25.800 to lay ashore.