Juno News - Keith Wilson： Alberta will vote again — and the result will be different

00:00:00.000 After a decisive loss in the Alberta referendum, the pro-independence forces in Alberta are trying

00:00:10.460 to figure out what happened and why. They were able to muster up the support of about 25% of

00:00:17.680 Albertans who favor a binding referendum on independence, far less than what was needed.

00:00:23.640 Leaders of the independence movement are now looking at what went wrong and where to go next.

00:00:28.800 some question the validity of the result let's listen i accept the results i'm not accepting the

00:00:33.920 results i'm just not not understanding what i could do to change that um you know right from

00:00:38.560 the very beginning of it i said when uh when you have six or seven hundred thousand mail-in ballots

00:00:43.280 up there it's very hard uh to expect us to accept uh those results and you know the from what we're

00:00:49.120 seeing our numbers are showing that uh 90 95 of the people that actually had mail-in ballots voted

00:00:55.600 against this so you know that's uh that's that's an amazing amount of people based on the fact that

00:01:01.200 in lots of writings uh you know the in-person vote was two to one in our favor so uh you know

00:01:06.320 what that uh it's not as if that we're not looking at that and thinking you know that uh doesn't make

00:01:11.920 a whole bunch of sense and i said that from the very beginning i said we'll see how the uh how

00:01:17.040 the mail-in ballot numbers compare with the you know the the boots on the ground numbers and right

00:01:22.560 now we're not seeing any kind of coral a correlation there at all so so am i accepting uh the numbers

00:01:29.120 well i have to have a lot more information than that i will start looking at that we also find

00:01:33.200 it interesting that uh you know in spite of the fact that the no vote uh you know was 75 of the

00:01:39.360 vote um the yes vote seems to have won a lot of the questions the question now is whether the

00:01:45.200 independence movement is dead here's premier danielle smith saying the referendum is now over

00:01:50.400 and it's time to move on the people of Alberta cast their votes in an open and democratic

00:01:55.280 referendum and the resulting vote from Albertans has given our government a clear mandate

00:02:02.240 Alberta will remain a province of Canada Albertans will continue to be Canadians and our government

00:02:08.400 will work cooperatively with Albertans the federal government and our fellow provinces

00:02:13.440 to secure a prosperous future for our province and our country and I want to make it clear tonight

00:02:19.360 that for as long as I am Premier, I will honour this mandate from Albertans and will not be

00:02:24.960 holding another referendum on this issue. Our guest is Keith Wilson, Alberta constitutional

00:02:30.160 lawyer and advocate for the Alberta independence movement. Welcome, sir. Thanks for having me.

00:02:36.240 I guess the question is, is it over? Are you throwing up the white flag and giving up on

00:02:41.040 independence well you know let's deal with some facts we had 500 000 albertans vote in favor so

00:02:50.320 we have you know around 20 20 25 voted for this option too which is they wanted to trigger a

00:02:56.080 process towards independence and um we achieved that despite having the full weight of the legacy

00:03:07.440 media against us every single day we just we achieved that despite having every organized

00:03:14.400 political party provincially and federally provincially and federally we had conservative

00:03:20.160 mps here actively door knocking and campaigning against us and the the whole might of the federal

00:03:26.960 government and millions of dollars spent in ad campaigns by the provincial government

00:03:32.320 and despite that we achieved 25 and 500 000 and you know most movements that seek that achieve

00:03:42.880 historic fundamental change are nowhere close to 25 of the population so um it's a step in the

00:03:50.640 journey the unfairness that is in the constitution continues the unfairness of equalization continue

00:04:00.000 those who see that and are concerned about the uncertainty all of these things create for the

00:04:05.400 future of their children won't give up on that this is another day in the journey you heard

00:04:10.520 mitch sylvester talk about mail-in ballots the fact that the vast majority of them went on option

00:04:16.940 one which is against the idea of moving forward with a second referendum do you buy any of that

00:04:23.300 is there something about this that makes you uncomfortable there is but i would only spend

00:04:28.240 any time on it if the result was 45 55 or 48 52 i mean even if you assume a percentage of those

00:04:38.000 were improper ballots in some way i mean come on i don't think it's you know mate so what we got 35

00:04:45.120 40 instead of 25 so i think the focus is uh the people have spoken and um here we are but the

00:04:54.160 fundamental truth is that we have a whole new generation of Albertans who have determined with

00:05:01.680 clarity and force in their mind that the future relationship with Canada needs to change and

00:05:07.120 change dramatically. It needs to be structural, it needs to be constitutional, and that's what

00:05:12.880 you saw in the vote in terms of 500,000 people voting. But you also heard the Premier saying

00:05:18.800 there's not going to be another referendum as long as she's around. Does that discourage you?

00:05:24.160 uh that part of what she said doesn't discourage me so much um the part that she said about

00:05:31.440 the membership does and we can get to that but let's deal with your point question here so

00:05:38.160 i've always felt and you might have heard this and i would have said this to you probably in some of

00:05:41.920 our interviews there was never ever on the table this idea of alberta leaving right we were never

00:05:49.840 i joked about saws and house dollies and things like that and you know it's not like we're all

00:05:55.280 going to pack our bag after we won the independence vote in the future and say well where are we going

00:06:00.480 it was always about redefining our constitutional relationship i always really tried to emphasize

00:06:06.640 that and changing how power is shared how power occurs political power democratic power and so

00:06:15.760 there's a couple of different ways you can achieve that i think and continue to believe

00:06:19.920 and thought the most optimal way was to trigger an independence referendum because that creates

00:06:24.960 a binding obligation for constitutional negotiations none of the other ones do

00:06:30.000 jason kenny former premier kenny's 2021 referendum 62 said they wanted a constitutional change on

00:06:35.920 equalization he wrote letters nothing happened right so but the premier's commit recommitted

00:06:41.920 today and in her speech last night that she is going to seek constitutional change. And if she

00:06:48.000 can make some progress on that, I will applaud that. We need, and she talked about, she keeps

00:06:54.720 talking about, as does Carney, as do others, many commentators. Look at how well they're getting

00:07:01.120 along. What? The Magna Carta, 800 years ago, Mark, was put in place because we had rule by

00:07:09.640 personality. And we wanted to change that to create certainty to avoid tyranny and other

00:07:15.600 arbitrary acts of governments against people. So we went to the rule of law and constitutional

00:07:21.220 order. Carney does not follow the constitution. He doesn't follow the rule of law. The courts

00:07:27.200 just ruled against him two weeks ago again here on the Impact Assessment Act. I don't want the

00:07:32.200 future prosperity of my children and my grandchildren and my neighbors and my friends

00:07:37.140 determined on the basis of whether a sitting premier

00:07:40.920 happens to have a good relationship

00:07:42.380 with a sitting prime minister.

00:07:43.840 That's dangerous. 1.00

00:07:45.240 She needs to seek constitutional change. 1.00

00:07:47.560 She has said she will seek constitutional change.

00:07:50.420 I support her in that mission.

00:07:52.360 I think we all should because that's what we need.

00:07:55.620 We need structural change here

00:07:57.840 to address the structural unfairness

00:08:00.680 that has caused there to be independence movements

00:08:03.020 in Alberta for over 100 years.

00:08:04.520 but alberta has lost its main bargaining chip i mean if uh the liberals under carney were

00:08:10.880 obstinate before i mean now they're just spiking the football and say it's over we have nothing

00:08:15.480 to worry about for these people we could do whatever the hell we want well that was my pitch

00:08:20.080 right you know you heard me say that many many times over and over again literally hundreds

00:08:24.840 hundreds if not thousands of times over the last four months that this was about creating leverage

00:08:29.900 and that voting option one is a surrender.

00:08:32.980 And she insists that that's not true

00:08:35.160 and that they have some kind of plan.

00:08:37.300 I'm looking forward to seeing her roll out this plan 0.64

00:08:40.580 and how she's going to actually cause the prime minister 0.90

00:08:44.780 and the other provinces and the federal government 1.00

00:08:48.120 to amend the constitution to make it more fair to Alberta

00:08:52.560 to address the structural unfairness

00:08:55.080 that we have within the constitution.

00:08:57.400 She says that this is the way to go.

00:08:59.460 She said in her campaigning that by voting option one, that would give her leverage to achieve this.

00:09:07.940 We're going to get to see who's right.

00:09:10.100 I hope she's right in this instance.

00:09:11.880 I hope I'm wrong because then we will get the structural change we need to eliminate the economic uncertainty that we have right now.

00:09:20.500 Prime Minister Carney at any moment can now, through a cabinet order, invoke an export tax on Alberta's oil to give him leverage with Donald Trump in the U.S. to help prop up the Ontario and Quebec manufacturing economies.

00:09:32.700 It will wipe out our economy and we'll see what happens.

00:09:37.600 And you think that's a possibility? I mean, after all that's happened with the referendum and all the talk about separatism, you think that that option exists, that the Prime Minister could actually do that?

00:09:49.540 Well, the statute's on the books. It serves only one purpose. If I was him and wanted to assure Albertans, I would have announced during the campaign that he was repealing it. It only exists for one purpose, that, right? And why is it still there? It's there because they can use it when they want to.

00:10:08.740 Former Prime Minister John Kretchen has been saying he should do that.

00:10:12.360 Premier Ford has said repeatedly he should do that.

00:10:14.960 Eby said he should do it.

00:10:16.120 Wab Kanu said he should do it.

00:10:17.780 They all went quiet because of the referendum.

00:10:20.260 Now we're through the referendum.

00:10:21.860 I hope they don't do that, obviously, but that's my point.

00:10:24.680 We shouldn't have to hope these things.

00:10:27.540 We shouldn't have to hope that two personalities continue to get along.

00:10:32.060 That was 800 years ago before Magna Carta.

00:10:34.320 We need constitutional reform so that we can, as parents, know that we've left things in

00:10:39.800 good order for our children and investors know that that's not just going to happen overnight.

00:10:45.620 So you think that Carney would look at yesterday's result and say, that's it.

00:10:50.520 We've got the go-ahead to play real hardball with the United States and put a surtax on

00:10:57.100 Alberta oil.

00:10:57.940 You think that's something that he may entertain based on, as you said, the recommendations from people like Jean Chrétien, Doug Ford, and others?

00:11:10.340 Why wouldn't he?

00:11:12.360 And I say that rhetorically, of course.

00:11:17.900 He needs some kind of leverage.

00:11:20.440 The political power, because of demographics, where Ontario has three times the population of Alberta, Quebec has two times the population.

00:11:27.940 you get power and hold power in canada by seeking favor of those voters and doing things to make

00:11:32.340 them happy those voters are mad they're losing their jobs their economy's in trouble and he needs

00:11:37.220 to do something the trade trade deal is a mess there is no negotiations going on at all that's

00:11:42.500 my understanding and the tariffs keep increasing stelco's shutting down its plant car manufacturers

00:11:48.740 are leaving um you know they got trouble and the only ace he has up his sleeve the only leverage

00:11:55.620 point he has the only one it's not like he's got five and he gets to pick between them it's alberta's

00:12:00.420 oil so uh and then for the premier to say i'll never do a referendum and and i don't place a

00:12:06.980 lot of credence on that because the pressure for her to do another referendum if he does do this

00:12:13.060 will be instantaneous in advance and a lot of those people that are that are concerned about

00:12:19.460 the relationship look at how many voted yes to the nine questions but voted no to independence

00:12:25.140 those people will they won't fool me once you know you know the expression you know fool me once shame

00:12:30.980 on me or if you fool me twice shame on me and that will be the thing so so that that is a possibility

00:12:37.700 i hope it doesn't happen i hope that she does have a plan and that she's going to be able to cause

00:12:45.380 some kind of leverage i don't see what it is but hopefully she has and that she will be able to

00:12:50.740 persuade the prime minister and the provinces to agree to change the constitution to address this

00:12:56.980 fundamental unfairness that is was within our constitution as to how alberta is treated but

00:13:02.500 you haven't given up on independence as i hear it um it was interesting hearing rick bell the

00:13:08.980 columnist whom you know at the calgary sun talk about that the pro-independence side didn't really

00:13:14.660 engage a whole lot they spent a whole lot of time talking to themselves there wasn't a whole bunch

00:13:19.780 of news conferences and it felt like there was a lack of engagement with the people that you want

00:13:26.100 to get on your side that people are not going to vote for you he says well they spent most

00:13:29.940 of their time talking to each other is that a problem that you see i disagree with the

00:13:34.500 characterization what what what you know what what's frustrating for him and everybody at post

00:13:40.260 media is that you get more views on your videos than they get reads on their newspaper i'm dead

00:13:45.620 serious their their readership is like this you know chorus entertainment stock is a penny stock

00:13:52.820 a penny stock right so why would i expend resources and go and spend a bunch of time with

00:14:01.060 rick bell when i can spend 20 minutes with you and reach five times the people right so what you're

00:14:07.780 hearing there frankly i like rick as a person is sour grapes because he's within a dying industry

00:14:14.580 and we consciously knew we were wasting could you could you imagine what it would have cost for us

00:14:20.700 to take out an ad in the calgary herald think about we could have for the price of that we

00:14:28.040 could reach five million people with a facebook ad right so that's where we went uh we spent

00:14:35.000 tremendous resources i got people complaining all the time on or on tiktok they say would you get

00:14:40.900 out of my feed like every time I turn my thing on because we did a lot of work there and same

00:14:45.440 with Facebook and everywhere else I was in and same with Daniel Clements we that was all strategy

00:14:51.080 but the message didn't resonate and because there was a couple of reasons one is that people were

00:14:58.340 too fearful it seemed like too big of a change leave leave you know leave pack up leave where

00:15:03.400 are we going oh boy cancel passports then they brought out all this fear stuff 100 billion 50

00:15:09.520 billion ontario will stop trading with us what you know and then to be candid and and to say

00:15:16.320 something that some of your listeners may not like jeff rath was their poster child they featured

00:15:22.800 him his picture on every article he was on the front page constantly and i had so many people

00:15:28.800 say to me i just about convinced my uncle to vote this but he does not like what mr rath has to say

00:15:35.360 it offends him and so he won't support us now he cost us support he's an ndp poster child they

00:15:42.080 love him the federalists love him that's why they featured him so extensively and similarly

00:15:47.440 mitch sylvester but not to the same extent the more jeff carries on the more he's going to cost

00:15:52.000 us support do you anticipate there will be a second referendum another referendum a binding

00:15:57.040 referendum on independence somewhere in the next i want to say five years yes oh for sure five years

00:16:02.960 yeah and what makes you say that because um i believe fundamentally the fundamentals from what

00:16:10.240 i've heard from economists and knowledgeable business people is on terror canada's in trouble

00:16:17.680 economically look at these things and it wasn't just trudeau it's fundamentally in trouble uh

00:16:24.800 on its fundamentals primarily central canada so the only way they're going to be able to maintain

00:16:31.680 the standard of living afford some semblance of affordability and not keep pushing away

00:16:39.440 is to take advantage of alberta's wealth and take advantage of alberta taxpayers and more and more

00:16:45.440 so many this this week said i'm going to give you another chance and they're not going to do it

00:16:50.880 again so i'm i i'm certain that there will be another referendum vote it will be within five

00:16:58.160 years and i think the results will be very different i think uh and i do not i'm not

00:17:03.840 optimistic that the federal government's going to concede to give up the powers uh that that

00:17:10.320 albertans are seeking unless they're forced to you know this is the thing well that's my point

00:17:16.000 and there's only one way to force it keith thank you so much for coming on the show we really

00:17:21.280 appreciate it thank you keith wilson if you enjoyed the show and appreciate great independent

00:17:27.360 journalism, please consider becoming a premier member of Juno News by going to junonews.com

00:17:33.560 backslash straight up. You can see it below. It helps us do what we do here. Thank you so much

00:17:38.760 for tuning in. We'll see you next time.

Juno News - October 22, 2026

Keith Wilson： Alberta will vote again — and the result will be different

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