Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1683 Scott Adams： Putin's Health, The Next Governor of California, Lots More

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the best thing that's ever happened to you, pretty, pretty sure.

00:00:09.200 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and aren't you lucky to be here?

00:00:13.100 You are. You're lucky, you're sexy, you're smart, and damn it, you know it, and you should. 0.97

00:00:20.480 But if you'd like to take it up a notch and enjoy the camaraderie, the fellowship, 0.86

00:00:26.260 and other words that sound weirdly sexist, for some reason,

00:00:30.680 all you need is a cup or mug or a glass or tank or a chalice or stein,

00:00:34.820 a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:38.220 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:42.060 Oh, yeah, and we're going to Salisbury Hill.

00:00:44.620 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:48.700 It's the dopamine the other day, and it's the thing that will make everything better.

00:00:51.960 It's called the Simultaneous Sip. Go.

00:00:56.260 Oh, yeah. Yeah.

00:01:01.520 Coursing through every corp bustle in my body.

00:01:06.480 Powering up.

00:01:08.040 All right, full power now.

00:01:09.860 You don't know what you're going to get now.

00:01:12.860 Well, let's see what's going on in the world. 0.97

00:01:16.140 China's pretty much screwed. 0.96

00:01:18.140 They're shutting down things because of COVID. 0.98

00:01:20.200 They've shut down life in Shenzhen and Shanghai,

00:01:24.260 and the Foxconn company that makes iPhones

00:01:28.040 is having to move their business to other locations.

00:01:31.020 And, well, it's looking kind of ugly.

00:01:34.080 And here's my question.

00:01:36.000 Number one, do you remember I've been warning you

00:01:39.300 that China's pandemic is ahead of them? 0.59

00:01:42.960 I did that, right?

00:01:44.040 Can somebody confirm that I've been telling you

00:01:47.160 that China's pandemic is ahead of them, not behind them? 0.89

00:01:50.600 Yeah, okay.

00:01:51.240 I'm seeing in the comments you remember I said that.

00:01:53.480 Now, I don't remember anybody else saying that in public.

00:01:57.200 Do you?

00:01:58.860 Do you remember?

00:01:59.900 Do you remember anybody else saying,

00:02:01.640 uh, I think China's problem is ahead of them? 1.00

00:02:05.080 Certainly when Omicron came.

00:02:06.740 Because the idea was that the virus was going to be around forever,

00:02:09.500 and the vaccinations don't stop it,

00:02:12.580 and the Chinese vaccinations especially don't stop it.

00:02:16.340 So, uh, well, it looks like Sweden's pandemic is behind them, yeah.

00:02:20.800 I think the West has largely conquered this thing.

00:02:25.940 I hope so.

00:02:27.720 But, um, why is it that every single thing that happens in the news

00:02:32.200 has a supply chain impact?

00:02:36.060 This can't be a coincidence, is it?

00:02:37.980 Just everything has a supply chain impact.

00:02:41.840 Whereas two years ago, nothing did.

00:02:44.900 Am I right?

00:02:46.260 It just went from everything affects the...

00:02:48.180 Nothing affects it to everything affects it?

00:02:50.660 There's something going on

00:02:52.020 that doesn't look completely organic to me.

00:02:55.960 I don't know what it is.

00:02:58.060 Uh, could be that we're in a simulation

00:02:59.580 and we're testing supply chains.

00:03:01.040 It could be weird coincidence, I guess.

00:03:03.500 Um, Zelensky has picked up on my persuasion.

00:03:10.780 Not specifically my persuasion, but let me explain.

00:03:16.400 Um, so Zelensky is now trying to talk directly

00:03:20.920 to the Russian conscripts that are in the Russian invading army.

00:03:25.280 Now, I don't imagine his message can reach them too easily.

00:03:29.220 Seems like they would be protected from any outside messages.

00:03:33.400 But, he said, if you surrender to our forces...

00:03:36.780 So he's actually talking about the Russian military

00:03:38.760 being defeated militarily

00:03:40.920 and surrendering.

00:03:43.540 And what he says is, if you surrender to our forces,

00:03:47.820 uh, that your people will be treated

00:03:50.180 the way they're supposed to be treated,

00:03:52.140 as people, decently,

00:03:54.280 in a way you were not treated in your army.

00:03:58.740 Literally, Zelensky is telling the Russian army people

00:04:01.960 that they would be treated better as prisoners of Ukraine

00:04:05.720 than as military members of their army.

00:04:10.900 And you know what?

00:04:12.020 He might be right.

00:04:16.200 Doesn't that ring true?

00:04:18.140 Because I think the Russian transcripts

00:04:20.040 are really being treated as cannon fodder.

00:04:22.940 They're being treated as cannon fodder

00:04:24.780 for no gain to them, or their country, really.

00:04:28.900 No gain. 1.00

00:04:30.320 The Russian army wants to kill these guys 1.00

00:04:33.260 or put them in harm's way. 0.99

00:04:34.780 They'll be damaged for life, even if they survive.

00:04:37.320 You know, there'll be PTSD and everything else.

00:04:39.440 So the Russian army is absolutely abusing

00:04:42.120 their own, uh, conscripts.

00:04:44.900 And I do think that the Ukrainians

00:04:48.340 might treat them better as prisoners of war.

00:04:52.020 That's actually literally true.

00:04:54.320 That's the damnedest thing, isn't it? 0.77

00:04:56.780 Has anybody ever told, uh, an invading army 0.96

00:04:59.640 we'll treat you better as prisoners

00:05:01.140 than you're being treated by your overlords right now?

00:05:03.360 And actually, and actually could sell that.

00:05:07.620 You can sell it because it's true.

00:05:10.480 I think.

00:05:12.100 I think it's actually true.

00:05:14.240 Well, here's the part I wanted to point out.

00:05:17.160 Well, we've all been impressed

00:05:19.480 at how persuasive Zelensky has been.

00:05:22.920 But then I look for a specific technique.

00:05:28.000 If you see technique, then you say to yourself,

00:05:31.840 where did he learn that?

00:05:34.420 Who taught him that?

00:05:37.020 And if he's just sort of randomly persuasive,

00:05:39.640 then you think, oh, maybe he's just some kind of a natural

00:05:41.520 or has something to do with the situation he's in.

00:05:44.440 It just is automatic.

00:05:45.160 But here's the technique.

00:05:47.600 This is what I've been waiting for.

00:05:49.960 Have you ever heard of a thing called

00:05:51.560 making you think past the sale?

00:05:53.840 I talk about it all the time.

00:05:56.180 It was Trump's main trick.

00:05:58.940 He would make you think about how things would be

00:06:00.780 after you'd made the decision,

00:06:02.720 as if the decision is already made.

00:06:05.720 And when he talks to the Russian conscripts,

00:06:10.500 to the extent that he can actually get his message to them,

00:06:13.420 he talks about how they'll be treated after they surrender.

00:06:20.140 Do you see it?

00:06:21.380 Do you see the technique?

00:06:22.980 Here's how you'll be treated after you surrender.

00:06:27.080 That's exactly the right way to say it.

00:06:29.820 Rather than saying, you know, you're in trouble,

00:06:33.940 your masters are cheating you poorly,

00:06:36.580 he talks about what will happen after they've surrendered.

00:06:41.980 That, ladies and gentlemen,

00:06:44.540 is a tell for professional advice.

00:06:48.720 He is being advised by somebody who knows what the hell they're doing.

00:06:56.800 I don't know that he knows this stuff by himself.

00:07:00.840 You know, there's no information we have

00:07:03.840 that he had some kind of training in persuasion or something.

00:07:07.240 Maybe he did.

00:07:08.580 You know, we know he's a good actor.

00:07:10.480 We know that he presents well.

00:07:11.940 But that's a very small part of persuasion,

00:07:14.340 just presenting well and speaking well.

00:07:16.140 You have to know the technique.

00:07:19.060 This latest thing he's doing,

00:07:21.360 which does two things.

00:07:23.800 Well, actually, it makes you think past two separate sails.

00:07:27.660 Two completely different sails.

00:07:28.980 One sail is imagining that you've surrendered.

00:07:34.600 And the other sail is that Zelensky is predicting victory,

00:07:38.060 direct military victory over Russian troops.

00:07:40.780 Not survival.

00:07:42.800 Not survival.

00:07:44.500 Not a deal.

00:07:45.220 Not survival.

00:07:46.440 Victory.

00:07:48.880 Do you think he can sell that story?

00:07:52.440 Do you think there's anybody who will believe the story

00:07:54.800 that Ukraine is actually winning or could win?

00:08:00.880 And the answer is,

00:08:03.520 yes.

00:08:06.440 In my opinion,

00:08:08.300 half of Putin's army might,

00:08:10.620 I'll put a might in there

00:08:11.520 because we don't know what's happening for sure.

00:08:13.020 I think half of Putin's army is trapped.

00:08:16.940 And I think that between NATO communication,

00:08:21.780 coordination,

00:08:22.640 and satellite spotting,

00:08:23.960 and weaponry,

00:08:24.780 and even training,

00:08:26.480 the Ukraine's special forces

00:08:28.280 are really, really trained.

00:08:30.900 I'm being asked if I'm high amazingly.

00:08:35.860 No.

00:08:36.220 By the way,

00:08:38.480 I won't ever lie to you about that.

00:08:40.400 If I tell you I'm not high,

00:08:42.120 I'm not high.

00:08:43.620 I don't really have any reason to tell you I'm not.

00:08:47.080 If I tell you I am,

00:08:48.280 I certainly would tell you what I'm not.

00:08:50.120 But I'm not.

00:08:50.620 In case you wondered.

00:08:55.180 Somebody says,

00:08:55.960 good time for China to invade Russia.

00:08:58.700 I don't think so.

00:09:00.300 Well,

00:09:00.780 I'm going to say that Zelensky's got some persuasion at help,

00:09:06.080 probably from somebody in a foreign intelligence agency,

00:09:09.960 maybe one of ours,

00:09:11.760 for example.

00:09:12.460 And let me ask you this.

00:09:19.580 Who did you hear talking about Ukraine winning militarily besides me?

00:09:28.140 Anybody?

00:09:29.660 Who was the first person you heard say,

00:09:32.620 you know,

00:09:33.520 I think Ukraine might actually win militarily?

00:09:37.460 Or at least give them such a black nose that they have to leave.

00:09:42.460 Somebody says,

00:09:43.560 you did.

00:09:44.920 Somebody says,

00:09:45.780 none really.

00:09:46.920 Somebody says the entire MSN.

00:09:48.500 That's not true.

00:09:50.060 The mainstream media thinks that Ukraine should have been swallowed in two days.

00:09:58.020 All right.

00:09:59.100 Yeah.

00:09:59.860 Now here's what I wonder.

00:10:01.580 I think I've told you that on some topics I might be persuading and not just predicting.

00:10:07.320 I think the CIA has picked up on,

00:10:10.380 and I'm not saying that they're copying me.

00:10:13.100 That would be a claim with no evidence whatsoever.

00:10:16.420 But people who know how to persuade know how to persuade.

00:10:21.060 If I were Zelensky, 0.58

00:10:22.400 I would be talking about an outright victory over Russian troops, 0.99

00:10:27.120 even if I didn't necessarily believe it was going to happen.

00:10:30.280 I'd still be talking about it,

00:10:31.960 because you want to put that in their heads, right?

00:10:34.200 You want at least,

00:10:35.160 you want the people who are giving you weapons and support to believe they could actually win.

00:10:41.040 Otherwise,

00:10:41.480 why would they give you weapons if you're just going to lose anyway?

00:10:44.600 So if I had Ben Zelensky,

00:10:47.640 I would be handling this part of it exactly this way.

00:10:53.300 Like,

00:10:53.540 exactly.

00:10:54.580 And it's the,

00:10:56.140 I guess it's the precision of this persuasion that makes it look professional.

00:11:02.480 There's a certain precision of the perfectness of his message right now

00:11:06.400 that just doesn't look organic.

00:11:08.660 I mean,

00:11:09.120 it looks like smart people who know how to do this are telling him what to do,

00:11:12.980 and he's good enough to be able to do it.

00:11:17.380 Yeah,

00:11:17.860 ask if anything about Zelensky is true.

00:11:19.980 The only thing I'm sure is true is that he's persuasive.

00:11:25.220 I'm sure that's true.

00:11:26.940 Everything else about Ukraine,

00:11:28.920 I don't believe.

00:11:30.680 I don't believe anything else I'm hearing about Ukraine.

00:11:33.780 We'll talk about some of those.

00:11:35.560 Well,

00:11:35.980 here's a good example.

00:11:36.920 The news was saying today that more than 140,000 Ukrainians,

00:11:40.680 mostly men,

00:11:41.220 have returned from Europe to fight for Ukraine.

00:11:45.240 Do you believe that number?

00:11:46.800 Do you believe that 140,000 people and people are being turned away?

00:11:52.620 Apparently they're being turned away because there's quote,

00:11:54.640 no room.

00:11:56.700 Like Ukraine is all, 0.99

00:11:58.100 is all filled up with people.

00:11:59.440 There's no room left for more foreign fighters to come in.

00:12:02.780 Apparently the news says there are 20,000 appeals from foreigners who are ready

00:12:07.360 to come.

00:12:07.820 So people who are not even Ukrainian by,

00:12:10.400 by any ethnic connection,

00:12:13.940 people with no ethnic connection to Ukraine,

00:12:16.700 20,000 of them have already signed up to come fight because they want to fight

00:12:20.420 against the Russian Nazis on the Ukrainian side.

00:12:26.000 I don't believe any of that.

00:12:28.320 Do you?

00:12:32.420 Do you really?

00:12:33.880 Right.

00:12:34.580 No.

00:12:35.340 Somebody says yes.

00:12:36.800 But on locals,

00:12:37.780 it's all no's.

00:12:39.120 So the part I don't believe is 140,000.

00:12:41.180 If you told me that 10,000 came,

00:12:44.720 I'd say that could be.

00:12:46.600 If you'd heard the number was 10,000,

00:12:49.420 would you believe it?

00:12:51.380 I think I'd believe 10,000.

00:12:54.440 I mean,

00:12:54.780 even that sounds high.

00:12:56.820 But I'd lean toward believing it.

00:12:59.660 At 140,000?

00:13:01.100 No way.

00:13:02.460 No way.

00:13:03.040 The entire Russian army is 150,000 people.

00:13:08.260 Am I right?

00:13:09.380 I mean,

00:13:09.760 the entire invading army,

00:13:11.080 not the entire Russian army,

00:13:12.640 but the entire invading Russian army is 150,000 people.

00:13:16.220 And you think that 140,000 foreign living Ukrainian associated people

00:13:22.120 signed up and actually came to Ukraine to fight?

00:13:25.420 No.

00:13:25.900 What's not correct?

00:13:31.960 There are 44 million in the country,

00:13:33.800 so somebody says they can believe it.

00:13:35.320 No,

00:13:35.540 I don't believe it.

00:13:36.620 Not going to buy it.

00:13:38.580 All right.

00:13:39.240 Elon Musk tweeted an offer to fight Putin one-on-one

00:13:43.540 with the winner getting Ukraine.

00:13:47.900 Perfectly normal day.

00:13:49.840 Let's see what's happening in the news.

00:13:51.660 Let's see.

00:13:52.360 Richest man in the world.

00:13:54.480 Oh,

00:13:54.920 okay.

00:13:55.220 He's offering to be the champion fighter for the Ukrainian people,

00:14:00.600 and he wants to actually have a physical fight with Putin,

00:14:04.260 and then they'll decide who wins.

00:14:08.440 What is Musk up to?

00:14:11.500 Why do you do this?

00:14:13.560 This is real,

00:14:14.260 by the way.

00:14:15.220 In case you thought I made this up,

00:14:17.980 he literally did this,

00:14:19.460 Musk did,

00:14:20.320 literally offered to fight Putin one-on-one as a champion.

00:14:24.240 The winner gets Ukraine. 0.89

00:14:27.200 He really said it.

00:14:28.540 And then when somebody asked him if he was serious,

00:14:30.400 he said yes.

00:14:32.620 Why'd he do it?

00:14:35.120 Why'd he do it?

00:14:36.360 Tell me why.

00:14:38.940 You say publicity's done?

00:14:40.520 Everything that Elon does probably has more than one benefit or purpose.

00:14:47.220 So publicity is part of it.

00:14:49.040 But publicity is not what I'm looking for.

00:14:50.680 He's always looking for publicity.

00:14:52.000 That's just a given,

00:14:53.240 because he doesn't have a marketing department at Tesla.

00:14:57.280 Somebody says high ground maneuver. 0.67

00:15:00.460 Close.

00:15:00.900 Close.

00:15:02.020 Close.

00:15:04.240 Here's what I think it is.

00:15:06.700 Number one,

00:15:08.120 Elon Musk is not like us.

00:15:11.460 Will you accept the first premise?

00:15:14.220 Elon Musk,

00:15:14.900 he's not like us.

00:15:16.760 I don't know what he's like,

00:15:17.940 but he's not like us.

00:15:19.600 He's better than us.

00:15:22.180 I hate to say it,

00:15:23.320 but he's better than us.

00:15:24.500 I mean,

00:15:24.960 it's not an accident that he's the richest man in the world.

00:15:27.080 He's smarter.

00:15:30.900 One of the parts of his talent stack,

00:15:34.260 which he never gets credit for,

00:15:36.400 because he's so engineering-centric,

00:15:41.000 that you think of him that way.

00:15:43.440 But he's one of the best persuaders of all time.

00:15:48.700 Of all time.

00:15:50.260 Maybe.

00:15:51.360 Maybe the best.

00:15:52.940 I mean,

00:15:53.160 it's hard to measure that kind of thing exactly.

00:15:55.920 But you could make an argument

00:15:57.500 he's the best there's ever been.

00:15:59.800 Because his companies didn't become great companies

00:16:02.320 because he's a great engineer.

00:16:04.160 I heard somebody say that.

00:16:05.680 Somebody said that you should think of Elon

00:16:08.940 as a great engineer,

00:16:10.620 and that would explain why his companies are succeeding.

00:16:13.400 Nope.

00:16:14.500 Nope.

00:16:16.000 I think he might be a great engineer,

00:16:17.980 but that would just be part of his talent stack.

00:16:20.180 He's not an engineer, for one thing.

00:16:21.500 He's a physicist.

00:16:22.600 I think he picked up engineering as a side job or something.

00:16:27.160 Just something he figured out on his own.

00:16:30.780 Here's what I know that maybe you're not aware of.

00:16:33.880 The people who came from the PayPal mafia,

00:16:37.000 the so-called PayPal mafia,

00:16:39.080 it was the folks who were part of that first PayPal startup.

00:16:43.160 Elon Musk was one of them.

00:16:45.680 Peter Thiel was one of them.

00:16:46.980 Hoffman was part of them.

00:16:51.200 So they formed LinkedIn

00:16:52.300 and everything Peter Thiel did,

00:16:54.440 Facebook, Pantera,

00:16:56.180 and now Elon Musk.

00:16:58.320 They all came from that same little startup.

00:17:00.500 Is that a coincidence?

00:17:02.200 What do you think?

00:17:03.240 Is it a coincidence that three people

00:17:04.900 from that same startup

00:17:06.080 all went and did amazing things?

00:17:09.560 Do you know what all of those amazing things

00:17:11.420 had in common?

00:17:14.580 Persuasion.

00:17:14.980 Everything they did that worked,

00:17:18.120 you look at it and you say,

00:17:19.140 you know, I get how they could do the engineering,

00:17:22.620 but how do they get somebody to buy into it?

00:17:26.020 Let me ask you this.

00:17:27.840 How in the world

00:17:28.900 did a startup

00:17:31.160 get banks to agree with them

00:17:33.960 being like a little electronic bank

00:17:36.320 when PayPal was brand new?

00:17:38.440 Before PayPal,

00:17:39.520 people were not sending money

00:17:40.880 back and forth digitally

00:17:43.200 to each other.

00:17:47.240 Somehow,

00:17:47.900 somehow PayPal

00:17:49.160 convinced people

00:17:51.120 to do something

00:17:51.740 completely outside

00:17:52.780 of their trained nature

00:17:54.260 to trust an app

00:17:57.260 with their money.

00:17:58.340 That's really hard.

00:18:01.020 How'd they do it?

00:18:03.720 And then how did somebody

00:18:05.540 build LinkedIn?

00:18:07.640 LinkedIn was basically

00:18:09.780 just a resume online

00:18:11.240 with, you know,

00:18:12.060 some social aspects and stuff.

00:18:14.040 I don't think LinkedIn

00:18:14.980 was ever the greatest idea

00:18:16.400 or even an innovative idea.

00:18:18.860 But somehow,

00:18:20.020 everybody wanted to do it

00:18:21.220 and it became huge.

00:18:24.440 So,

00:18:25.060 if you look at the persuasion element

00:18:26.940 of PayPal,

00:18:28.860 LinkedIn,

00:18:30.120 Facebook,

00:18:31.440 and everything else

00:18:32.400 that these people do

00:18:34.300 from electric cars,

00:18:36.080 do you know how much persuasion

00:18:37.520 it takes to sell

00:18:38.480 an electric car

00:18:39.300 or to build

00:18:40.360 a rocket company

00:18:42.200 to go to Mars?

00:18:43.900 I mean,

00:18:44.180 you're talking about

00:18:44.960 unusual levels

00:18:47.340 of persuasion

00:18:48.140 to get any of that

00:18:48.940 to work.

00:18:49.520 Forget about the engineering,

00:18:51.220 which is super impressive.

00:18:53.960 How about Uber?

00:18:57.620 Uber didn't work 1.00

00:18:58.740 because guys

00:18:59.780 were really good

00:19:00.460 at making apps,

00:19:01.940 although the app

00:19:02.620 is really good.

00:19:04.120 Uber works

00:19:04.700 because somebody

00:19:05.400 was persuasive

00:19:06.280 as hell

00:19:07.000 and figured out

00:19:08.400 how to get past

00:19:09.840 all these local ordinances

00:19:11.100 and, oh my God,

00:19:12.840 a lot of persuasion.

00:19:14.240 So, the thing

00:19:14.820 that people miss

00:19:15.440 is the persuasive power

00:19:17.060 of successful people.

00:19:18.780 They didn't get there

00:19:19.620 just by being

00:19:20.320 good engineers,

00:19:21.520 ever.

00:19:22.380 It's always persuasion, too.

00:19:24.920 And,

00:19:25.420 that's what I see

00:19:26.920 when I see

00:19:27.560 Elon Musk

00:19:28.440 offering to fight

00:19:29.420 to Putin

00:19:29.860 one-on-one.

00:19:31.380 Here's my interpretation.

00:19:32.540 Now, of course,

00:19:34.740 I cannot read

00:19:35.560 Elon Musk's mind.

00:19:37.920 If I could,

00:19:39.180 I'd be building myself

00:19:40.260 some unicorn startups, too,

00:19:42.120 because I guess

00:19:43.000 I'd know how to do it

00:19:43.740 if I could read his mind.

00:19:45.540 But,

00:19:46.080 here's what I think.

00:19:48.700 When Elon Musk,

00:19:49.920 richest guy in the world,

00:19:50.940 knows he's going to get

00:19:51.660 lots of attention

00:19:52.400 when he says

00:19:53.060 something like this,

00:19:54.300 challenges Putin

00:19:55.320 to a one-on-one fight,

00:19:57.040 your brain says

00:19:57.920 two things.

00:19:59.100 Number one,

00:20:00.340 number one,

00:20:00.920 that is absurd.

00:20:03.400 Am I right?

00:20:04.100 That's the first thing

00:20:04.720 you think.

00:20:05.320 Okay, that's absurd.

00:20:07.040 What's the second thing

00:20:08.040 you do?

00:20:09.640 You compare it

00:20:10.680 to what we're doing

00:20:11.420 already.

00:20:14.380 And then what?

00:20:16.800 It's not so absurd

00:20:17.900 anymore, is it?

00:20:19.940 If you could

00:20:20.740 literally 0.99

00:20:21.620 fucking choose, 1.00

00:20:23.680 you don't have 1.00

00:20:24.440 that choice.

00:20:24.940 But if you could,

00:20:26.560 to have Ukraine 0.82

00:20:27.400 fight it out

00:20:28.060 the way they're

00:20:28.460 fighting it out,

00:20:29.080 men, women,

00:20:30.320 children being

00:20:30.900 slaughtered 0.81

00:20:31.500 and dismembered 0.95

00:20:33.440 every day.

00:20:34.600 Or,

00:20:35.520 you could settle

00:20:36.140 the whole thing

00:20:36.860 with Elon Musk

00:20:38.460 having a personal

00:20:39.300 fight with Putin.

00:20:40.340 And actually,

00:20:40.920 I don't know

00:20:41.260 who would win.

00:20:42.920 You know,

00:20:43.120 because Putin's,

00:20:43.800 I think,

00:20:44.200 Elon's got a size

00:20:45.480 and youth,

00:20:47.000 but Putin has Putin.

00:20:49.620 I'll tell you

00:20:50.340 who I wouldn't want

00:20:51.300 to ever get in

00:20:51.740 a fight with.

00:20:52.980 Putin.

00:20:53.860 All right,

00:20:54.120 Putin's basically

00:20:54.840 around my age

00:20:55.900 and about my size.

00:20:58.520 I feel like

00:20:59.420 I could handle

00:21:00.020 myself around

00:21:00.940 people my size

00:21:01.880 in general,

00:21:02.580 especially my age.

00:21:03.860 Like,

00:21:04.120 if I ever got

00:21:04.560 in a fight

00:21:04.900 with another

00:21:06.000 65-year-old guy

00:21:07.540 who was about

00:21:07.980 my age

00:21:08.500 or about my size,

00:21:09.960 I feel like

00:21:10.560 I could take him.

00:21:12.860 But I don't feel

00:21:14.140 like I could take

00:21:14.820 Putin.

00:21:16.500 I think Putin

00:21:17.280 would dismantle me.

00:21:18.940 I'm pretty sure.

00:21:21.120 Putin is 5'7",

00:21:22.560 somebody says,

00:21:23.080 yeah.

00:21:23.220 he would go

00:21:25.500 MacGyver on you.

00:21:26.980 All right,

00:21:27.240 so here's what I think

00:21:28.080 is Elon's play.

00:21:31.100 I think that he is 0.97

00:21:32.200 making a ridiculous 0.99

00:21:33.540 and absurd offer 0.98

00:21:34.740 but doing it seriously

00:21:36.520 so that your brain

00:21:38.160 will compare it

00:21:38.900 to what's actually

00:21:39.560 happening,

00:21:40.600 which is even more 0.97

00:21:41.760 fucking absurd 0.99

00:21:42.600 than what he's offering. 0.99

00:21:45.500 He's basically

00:21:46.520 juxtaposed

00:21:47.520 an unambiguously

00:21:49.120 absurd thing

00:21:50.020 with the actual news

00:21:52.160 and made you look

00:21:53.480 at the absurd thing

00:21:54.380 in the news

00:21:54.840 and say,

00:21:55.260 you know,

00:21:56.060 the absurd thing 0.99

00:21:56.920 doesn't look so stupid 0.99

00:21:57.860 anymore. 1.00

00:21:59.000 Because compared

00:21:59.760 to what we're doing,

00:22:00.700 actually,

00:22:02.240 literally,

00:22:03.740 no joke,

00:22:05.400 would be better

00:22:06.360 for everybody.

00:22:08.300 Maybe even Putin.

00:22:09.880 I don't know.

00:22:10.580 I mean,

00:22:10.820 he might even come

00:22:11.420 out of head.

00:22:11.800 Might not be so good

00:22:13.180 for Elon. 0.96

00:22:14.720 Elon might get killed.

00:22:17.440 But making us think 1.00

00:22:18.680 about how ridiculous 0.82

00:22:19.880 the war is, 0.91

00:22:20.820 how absurd it is.

00:22:22.480 I feel like that's

00:22:23.580 productive.

00:22:25.240 Because it's easier

00:22:26.460 to stop doing something

00:22:27.500 that you know is absurd

00:22:28.640 and everybody else

00:22:29.460 knows it's absurd.

00:22:30.960 And that's what he did.

00:22:32.520 He just introduced

00:22:33.660 into the thinking

00:22:34.940 that war

00:22:36.720 is not just

00:22:38.800 a bad idea.

00:22:40.940 It can never be

00:22:42.000 a good idea.

00:22:42.940 It's just absurd.

00:22:45.160 And,

00:22:45.660 you know,

00:22:46.560 I see somebody

00:22:47.560 in the comments

00:22:48.320 saying he's trivializing it.

00:22:49.620 Now,

00:22:50.300 I don't think so.

00:22:51.960 I think he's trivializing it

00:22:53.700 as persuasion

00:22:54.860 successfully.

00:22:58.820 It's a weird little move

00:23:00.180 because it's like a,

00:23:01.200 it's a chess move

00:23:02.600 that's not a checkmate.

00:23:05.880 Do you see

00:23:06.220 what I'm saying?

00:23:07.320 He's just taking

00:23:08.200 the board

00:23:08.760 and he's just

00:23:09.760 shaking it a little bit.

00:23:11.360 Not a lot.

00:23:12.780 He just took

00:23:13.320 the chess board

00:23:13.880 and he's like,

00:23:14.320 just a little shake.

00:23:15.500 And a couple of the pieces

00:23:16.340 just moved

00:23:16.900 into another square,

00:23:17.780 but you don't see it yet.

00:23:20.180 He's basically

00:23:21.000 softening up the room

00:23:23.080 so that if

00:23:24.960 decisions need

00:23:26.140 to be made

00:23:26.720 that would normally

00:23:27.560 not be made,

00:23:29.200 maybe they can be there

00:23:30.220 because a couple

00:23:31.200 of the pieces

00:23:31.640 got moved.

00:23:32.660 It's a very small change

00:23:34.220 to how we think

00:23:36.420 about it,

00:23:37.060 but it's real.

00:23:38.620 It's real.

00:23:39.720 It does make you

00:23:40.680 give a little more

00:23:41.400 absurdity

00:23:42.060 to the current situation

00:23:43.200 and I'm not sure

00:23:44.720 that we had

00:23:45.160 enough absurdity

00:23:46.180 in our opinion

00:23:47.500 of it.

00:23:48.360 I feel like

00:23:49.000 we thought the war

00:23:49.800 was sort of,

00:23:51.120 we don't like it,

00:23:52.960 but that it made sense.

00:23:55.760 Am I right?

00:23:57.600 No matter what

00:23:58.380 you thought of the war,

00:23:59.340 who's wrong

00:24:00.100 or who's right,

00:24:01.140 on some level,

00:24:03.800 it sort of seemed

00:24:04.580 logical to you.

00:24:06.280 Like you don't like

00:24:07.340 how we got here,

00:24:08.980 but there's a logic

00:24:10.060 to it.

00:24:10.500 We poked the bear,

00:24:13.120 the bear poked back,

00:24:14.740 they've got strategic

00:24:15.860 historical reasons.

00:24:18.000 You can kind of make

00:24:18.760 it all make sense

00:24:19.500 in your head,

00:24:20.020 can't you?

00:24:20.340 You can talk yourself

00:24:21.480 into that we got here

00:24:23.300 logically.

00:24:24.700 What Elon has done

00:24:25.960 is just ripped

00:24:26.900 that all out

00:24:27.660 and just said,

00:24:28.640 maybe not.

00:24:30.240 Maybe we did not

00:24:31.120 get here logically

00:24:31.920 at all.

00:24:32.460 Maybe we just got here.

00:24:34.180 Maybe we're in

00:24:34.900 an absurd situation

00:24:36.320 and the only way out

00:24:38.380 is to recognize it.

00:24:40.500 The only way out

00:24:41.780 is to recognize it.

00:24:46.320 The only way out

00:24:47.840 is to recognize it.

00:24:54.000 Because the only way out

00:24:55.560 is to recognize it.

00:24:59.400 And Elon just did that

00:25:00.420 for you.

00:25:01.980 Now, I don't know.

00:25:03.360 I don't know how much

00:25:04.420 thinking he put into it.

00:25:05.940 Like, it may not be

00:25:07.120 even close to what

00:25:07.880 I'm saying.

00:25:08.300 Maybe it was just a joke.

00:25:09.260 Who knows?

00:25:10.580 But,

00:25:13.460 Ronnie says,

00:25:16.720 Scott hasn't taken

00:25:17.660 his hand off his lap

00:25:18.840 since he started

00:25:19.480 talking about Elon.

00:25:21.300 I'm not going to

00:25:22.140 hide the fact

00:25:22.800 that I think he's

00:25:24.240 one of our greatest

00:25:25.500 American patriots.

00:25:27.900 You know,

00:25:28.020 born in another country,

00:25:29.080 but in a way

00:25:30.580 that makes him

00:25:31.060 a perfect American.

00:25:31.940 Yeah,

00:25:33.580 I have complete respect

00:25:35.360 for Elon Musk.

00:25:36.560 So I'm not going

00:25:37.060 to hide that.

00:25:37.540 Yeah, he's

00:25:39.320 ridiculing 0.99

00:25:39.840 a ridiculous war. 0.82

00:25:41.040 I think Elon's frame 0.97

00:25:42.280 that it's ridiculous 0.80

00:25:43.300 is productive. 0.85

00:25:47.820 We'll see.

00:25:49.820 You all saw the story

00:25:50.860 about the Russian

00:25:51.640 on-air news personality

00:25:54.360 who ran out

00:25:55.040 with a protest sign

00:25:56.060 against the war.

00:25:57.360 You know,

00:25:57.560 don't believe

00:25:58.040 everything you say

00:25:58.840 about the war

00:26:00.420 or everything you hear.

00:26:01.480 and I guess

00:26:02.920 she disappeared.

00:26:05.220 So is that

00:26:06.760 the first time

00:26:07.600 that Russian viewers

00:26:08.680 would know

00:26:09.360 that there's

00:26:09.780 something wrong?

00:26:13.040 If you were

00:26:13.660 watching at home

00:26:14.380 or even if you

00:26:16.140 heard about it

00:26:16.720 and you saw

00:26:17.940 somebody run on TV

00:26:19.620 and basically

00:26:20.560 risked their life

00:26:21.400 because anybody

00:26:22.780 who saw it

00:26:23.320 knows that that person

00:26:24.100 risked their life

00:26:25.060 or at least their freedom.

00:26:26.900 Somebody risked

00:26:27.740 their life

00:26:28.180 to give you this message.

00:26:29.300 Would it wake you up?

00:26:30.060 Or would you say,

00:26:31.660 oh, that's weird, 0.97

00:26:32.320 crazy person.

00:26:34.400 I wonder if this matters. 0.98

00:26:36.700 Don't you?

00:26:38.120 It might matter.

00:26:39.940 It could be

00:26:40.660 that we'll look back

00:26:41.420 on this one brave woman

00:26:43.340 who literally

00:26:46.900 risked her life

00:26:48.040 to try to right a wrong

00:26:50.840 and, boy,

00:26:53.660 I have a lot of respect

00:26:54.280 for her.

00:26:56.320 Although I wouldn't

00:26:57.080 have done it.

00:26:57.740 I don't think

00:26:58.140 I would have done it.

00:27:00.060 Yeah, it's almost

00:27:02.380 out of a Hollywood movie.

00:27:08.120 All right.

00:27:10.940 There's another story

00:27:13.040 that I, you know,

00:27:17.380 when I see a story

00:27:19.040 that so perfectly

00:27:20.180 fits what people

00:27:22.800 on social media

00:27:23.740 were imagining,

00:27:26.660 I get real suspicious.

00:27:27.880 So I'm going to tell you

00:27:29.860 this story

00:27:30.420 and I want you to say,

00:27:32.500 does this look familiar?

00:27:34.860 Meaning that,

00:27:35.600 does the story

00:27:36.120 seem to match

00:27:36.840 exactly what

00:27:37.780 I had said on Twitter?

00:27:40.700 All right.

00:27:41.400 Now, I'm not going to tell you

00:27:42.480 that, like,

00:27:43.320 I'm the only person

00:27:44.060 who said this.

00:27:45.340 Sometimes I tell you that

00:27:46.360 because I think it's useful.

00:27:47.780 I think it's useful

00:27:48.640 to track

00:27:49.220 who predicts things

00:27:50.780 correctly first.

00:27:52.160 So I know it's annoying

00:27:53.200 when I say,

00:27:54.020 did I predict that?

00:27:55.560 Do you remember?

00:27:55.900 But I think it's useful

00:27:57.080 because you should have

00:27:59.240 the same, you know,

00:28:00.640 idea of how accurate

00:28:02.860 I am in order to,

00:28:05.580 you know,

00:28:06.040 enjoy this live stream.

00:28:07.740 So here's a story

00:28:10.580 from the New York Post.

00:28:13.240 And it says that,

00:28:14.320 citing sources

00:28:14.940 close to the Kremlin,

00:28:16.860 senior figures

00:28:17.560 in the Five Eyes

00:28:18.400 Intelligence Alliance

00:28:19.320 comprising,

00:28:20.320 oh, well, look at this,

00:28:21.760 using the word

00:28:22.360 comprising correctly

00:28:23.280 in a sentence.

00:28:23.860 I'm always impressed.

00:28:25.320 Comprising Australia,

00:28:26.460 Canada, New Zealand,

00:28:27.380 and the United Kingdom

00:28:28.540 and the United States

00:28:29.240 believe there is

00:28:30.520 a physiological explanation

00:28:32.260 for the Russian president's

00:28:33.780 globally reviled decision

00:28:35.480 to invade Ukraine.

00:28:37.880 So, of course,

00:28:38.840 a lot of people

00:28:39.260 haven't been talking about it,

00:28:40.420 but now we're seeing

00:28:41.100 a story that

00:28:41.700 the intelligence people

00:28:43.040 believe that there is

00:28:45.020 evidence

00:28:45.520 that the sources,

00:28:47.960 the unnamed sources,

00:28:49.840 highly, highly dependable

00:28:51.180 unnamed sources,

00:28:52.100 speculated that

00:28:54.180 Putin, who's 69,

00:28:56.060 could have dementia,

00:28:56.880 Parkinson's disease,

00:28:57.740 or, quote,

00:28:58.960 roid rage.

00:29:01.060 Roid rage.

00:29:03.480 From potential cancer

00:29:04.860 treatments that involve

00:29:05.720 heavy steroid use.

00:29:07.100 Do you know what?

00:29:07.540 I swear to God,

00:29:08.300 yesterday,

00:29:09.200 I was taking a walk

00:29:10.720 and I was thinking to myself,

00:29:12.280 huh,

00:29:12.940 I wonder if there are

00:29:14.060 any cancer treatments

00:29:15.500 that would give you

00:29:17.960 like anger issues.

00:29:20.100 It turns out there are.

00:29:23.260 Apparently,

00:29:24.500 steroids are

00:29:25.580 indicated for some

00:29:27.320 kinds of cancer treatments

00:29:28.520 and that could give you

00:29:31.240 roid rage 0.96

00:29:31.960 and actually explain

00:29:33.060 his entire behavior.

00:29:34.320 Would also explain

00:29:35.320 his puffy face.

00:29:37.840 His puffy face

00:29:39.220 and his change

00:29:40.200 in decision making.

00:29:42.560 It's all looking

00:29:43.800 a lot like

00:29:44.680 a chemical change

00:29:47.260 in his personality

00:29:48.000 because the people

00:29:48.840 who know him

00:29:49.340 say he's changed.

00:29:51.180 Yeah,

00:29:51.600 didn't I say that

00:29:52.360 on day one?

00:29:53.620 Steroids?

00:29:58.020 Give me a fact, Jack.

00:30:00.480 Was I,

00:30:01.300 I don't think

00:30:01.960 I was the first,

00:30:02.820 but I think

00:30:03.440 I was among the first

00:30:04.620 to say,

00:30:05.740 that looks like roids.

00:30:06.980 That looks like steroids.

00:30:08.000 Day one, right?

00:30:09.980 Yeah.

00:30:11.780 Oh, I did ask about it?

00:30:13.940 Oh, okay.

00:30:14.580 Oh, good.

00:30:14.860 Now, I'm not going

00:30:16.020 to claim that I had

00:30:16.820 like some,

00:30:17.760 you know,

00:30:18.140 the first in the world

00:30:19.020 to say that,

00:30:20.040 but I was there early.

00:30:21.440 I think that's worth it.

00:30:23.160 Now, here's my

00:30:24.440 fake news

00:30:25.820 analysis of this.

00:30:30.440 I thought it was true

00:30:31.640 until I saw it

00:30:32.360 in the news.

00:30:34.260 Do you know

00:30:34.820 what I mean?

00:30:36.340 I thought I was

00:30:37.280 pretty confident

00:30:38.000 in my opinion

00:30:38.720 that there's something

00:30:39.480 chemically different

00:30:40.320 about him,

00:30:41.420 but as soon as

00:30:42.420 I saw it in the news

00:30:43.560 and the news

00:30:45.040 looks exactly

00:30:45.740 like my tweets,

00:30:47.520 I stopped believing it.

00:30:52.320 Now, that's a hell

00:30:53.240 of a thing,

00:30:54.340 that I believed

00:30:55.260 my own opinion

00:30:56.040 until I saw it

00:30:57.100 being confirmed

00:30:58.840 in the news.

00:30:59.820 As soon as I saw

00:31:00.840 it confirmed

00:31:01.320 in the news,

00:31:01.920 I'm like, 1.00

00:31:02.200 oh, shit, 0.99

00:31:02.820 I'm wrong. 1.00

00:31:04.280 They confirmed it.

00:31:05.260 I must be wrong.

00:31:07.020 Because here's

00:31:07.740 my problem.

00:31:09.460 It looks exactly

00:31:10.520 like what an

00:31:11.260 intelligence agency

00:31:12.360 would want you

00:31:12.980 to think.

00:31:13.560 like a U.S. 0.82

00:31:14.700 intelligence agency,

00:31:16.280 like a Ukrainian 1.00

00:31:17.660 intelligence agency.

00:31:19.580 It looks a little

00:31:20.800 like our intelligence

00:31:24.300 agencies and other

00:31:25.820 countries may have

00:31:27.240 said, look,

00:31:27.980 they're going to

00:31:28.500 believe this anyway

00:31:29.300 because people are

00:31:30.440 chatting about it

00:31:31.200 on social media,

00:31:32.480 so let's just put it

00:31:33.400 out there like it's

00:31:34.120 probably true

00:31:34.900 because they're

00:31:35.760 already primed

00:31:36.520 to believe it.

00:31:37.900 They didn't have to

00:31:38.800 wonder if we would

00:31:39.660 believe it because

00:31:41.140 it had already

00:31:41.600 been tested.

00:31:42.200 You see what I'm

00:31:44.400 saying?

00:31:44.980 It had already

00:31:45.440 been tested.

00:31:46.760 They knew people

00:31:47.420 would believe it

00:31:48.040 because we already

00:31:48.860 believed it without

00:31:49.940 any evidence

00:31:50.680 whatsoever.

00:31:51.660 So they just gave

00:31:52.600 us some fake

00:31:53.280 evidence of,

00:31:54.220 you know,

00:31:54.380 people who are

00:31:54.940 sources,

00:31:55.560 say they think,

00:31:56.620 and then it goes

00:31:57.380 to the media and

00:31:58.280 then you think

00:31:58.720 there's really a

00:31:59.760 source.

00:32:00.780 And then,

00:32:01.400 so here's the

00:32:02.500 thing.

00:32:03.520 Could I have

00:32:04.260 caused this?

00:32:06.140 I'm not saying I

00:32:07.060 did.

00:32:07.280 but I worry

00:32:09.000 about it.

00:32:10.060 Is it possible

00:32:10.920 I caused this?

00:32:12.400 Let me tell you

00:32:13.100 what I know.

00:32:15.260 I do know that

00:32:16.280 intelligence agencies

00:32:17.260 watch me.

00:32:20.460 Do you accept

00:32:21.300 that?

00:32:22.960 Now,

00:32:23.440 I'm not going to

00:32:23.780 tell you how I

00:32:24.340 know,

00:32:25.220 but I know

00:32:25.800 because I've been

00:32:27.200 approached by people,

00:32:28.400 et cetera.

00:32:29.740 So I know that

00:32:31.240 there are at

00:32:31.840 least,

00:32:32.920 I know of at

00:32:33.820 least three

00:32:34.480 intelligence agencies

00:32:35.580 who do have their

00:32:36.600 eyes on me.

00:32:38.280 Four.

00:32:38.960 I know four.

00:32:41.380 If four

00:32:42.080 intelligence agencies

00:32:43.000 are watching me

00:32:43.860 and I've sort of

00:32:45.840 tested in advance

00:32:47.460 the idea that

00:32:48.400 Putin looks like 0.87

00:32:49.380 he's drugged, 0.65

00:32:51.900 do you think that

00:32:52.520 they could have

00:32:53.160 gotten the idea

00:32:53.780 to just amplify it?

00:32:55.580 I'm not saying

00:32:56.160 that this happened.

00:32:57.020 I just worry about it.

00:32:59.100 I worry that I'm

00:33:00.980 giving people ideas

00:33:02.100 without knowing it.

00:33:05.320 I have no reason

00:33:06.260 to think I did this.

00:33:07.280 I'm not making

00:33:07.960 that claim.

00:33:09.000 But I worry about it.

00:33:11.140 All right.

00:33:13.420 CNN has a story.

00:33:16.100 Oh,

00:33:16.480 let's talk more

00:33:17.200 about Putin.

00:33:18.240 So apparently

00:33:18.860 Putin is a known 0.92

00:33:19.820 hypochondriac. 0.98

00:33:20.960 Do you believe that? 0.98

00:33:22.540 Putin is a known 0.91

00:33:23.600 hypochondriac? 0.87

00:33:24.480 And they think that's

00:33:26.680 why he's so afraid

00:33:27.460 of COVID.

00:33:27.900 But somebody else

00:33:28.700 said, and I had

00:33:29.640 never said this

00:33:30.180 out loud, but I

00:33:30.940 believed it for a

00:33:31.600 while, that the

00:33:33.000 reason he's so

00:33:33.620 afraid of COVID

00:33:34.320 is that he has

00:33:37.400 comorbidities.

00:33:38.300 I think he's got

00:33:41.420 comorbidities, which

00:33:43.780 would suggest cancer

00:33:45.780 or something bad,

00:33:47.620 which would suggest

00:33:48.840 the steroid thing

00:33:50.260 is correct.

00:33:51.580 Because if you're

00:33:52.320 the head of a

00:33:52.760 country and you've

00:33:53.420 got some kind of

00:33:54.080 medical problem that's

00:33:54.880 going to slow you

00:33:55.500 down, they might

00:33:57.160 pump you full of

00:33:58.300 meth and steroids

00:34:00.580 to keep you going

00:34:02.280 because you can't

00:34:03.300 take a day off if

00:34:04.240 you're Putin, right?

00:34:05.540 Putin can't take a

00:34:06.420 day off.

00:34:07.620 I don't think Putin

00:34:08.300 takes sick days.

00:34:10.260 Am I right?

00:34:11.480 I don't think he

00:34:12.280 can take a sick day

00:34:13.040 because weakness

00:34:14.360 would be a big

00:34:17.180 risk for him

00:34:18.360 politically.

00:34:19.580 So I've got a

00:34:20.620 feeling that he's

00:34:21.160 pumped up with

00:34:21.980 whatever it takes to

00:34:22.980 make him look like

00:34:23.700 he's still functional

00:34:24.500 while he's rapidly

00:34:26.360 declining in some

00:34:27.440 kind of health

00:34:28.120 related problem.

00:34:29.140 So that's my

00:34:29.660 current analysis.

00:34:31.160 So I'm going to

00:34:32.500 say comorbidity

00:34:33.460 is why he's

00:34:34.380 afraid of COVID.

00:34:36.160 Comorbidities.

00:34:39.480 There's a new

00:34:40.280 threat in the

00:34:40.900 United States

00:34:41.460 according to CNN.

00:34:42.440 They've got a

00:34:42.800 story.

00:34:43.820 It's men who 0.81

00:34:44.700 are involuntarily

00:34:46.700 celibate.

00:34:48.820 Wait a minute.

00:34:53.140 Are incels 0.62

00:34:54.180 involuntarily

00:34:55.080 celibate?

00:34:56.200 I thought people

00:34:57.180 volunteered.

00:35:00.240 Don't they sort

00:35:01.100 volunteer because

00:35:02.000 they just gave

00:35:02.860 up on it?

00:35:04.520 I think it's

00:35:05.280 sort of a gray

00:35:06.960 area whether they

00:35:07.700 volunteered or

00:35:08.480 they didn't have

00:35:09.260 any choice.

00:35:10.800 But apparently

00:35:11.360 now the government

00:35:13.660 is worried that

00:35:14.520 these celibate

00:35:15.880 men who in

00:35:17.500 many cases have

00:35:18.240 bad feelings about

00:35:19.080 women will become 1.00

00:35:20.100 mass murderers of 1.00

00:35:21.620 women because they 1.00

00:35:23.140 are misogynists. 0.94

00:35:26.300 And well, yeah,

00:35:27.960 I get it.

00:35:28.320 I get it that

00:35:28.840 incel means

00:35:29.560 involuntary

00:35:30.360 celibate.

00:35:31.200 But when I've

00:35:31.780 seen it in actual

00:35:33.740 popular use, it

00:35:35.960 always seemed like

00:35:36.760 people were

00:35:37.540 voluntarily labeling

00:35:40.380 themselves involuntarily

00:35:42.420 celibate.

00:35:43.480 Does that make

00:35:43.800 sense?

00:35:45.080 I mean, it looked

00:35:45.680 like there was some

00:35:46.220 free will involved,

00:35:47.200 however you want to

00:35:47.900 define that.

00:35:49.180 Anyway, do you

00:35:50.940 think that's a big

00:35:51.520 problem for the

00:35:52.140 future?

00:35:53.600 Involuntarily

00:35:54.080 celibate men?

00:35:54.900 I think it is.

00:35:59.400 It sounds 0.94

00:36:00.500 ridiculous, right? 0.96

00:36:02.600 It sounds a little 0.98

00:36:03.200 absurd on the

00:36:03.880 surface, but I

00:36:05.200 feel like it is.

00:36:06.840 And I've often

00:36:07.720 speculated, much to

00:36:09.000 my destruction, that

00:36:11.780 a big problem in the

00:36:12.780 Middle East is too

00:36:13.740 many men and not

00:36:14.880 enough women. 1.00

00:36:15.960 Because if the

00:36:17.000 high-end rich men

00:36:18.780 in Middle Eastern

00:36:19.800 society have several

00:36:21.780 wives, necessarily 1.00

00:36:24.180 there won't be

00:36:24.900 enough left over

00:36:25.620 for the men, the

00:36:27.060 lower-ranked men.

00:36:28.900 So in theory, there

00:36:29.820 should be all these

00:36:30.300 extra men who have

00:36:31.280 nothing to do but 1.00

00:36:32.080 kill and be killed. 1.00

00:36:33.860 Because we turn into 1.00

00:36:34.860 killers when we're

00:36:35.980 not domesticated,

00:36:38.060 basically.

00:36:44.120 Ethan, why do you

00:36:45.280 need to say that?

00:36:47.100 Ethan has decided to

00:36:48.460 inform me that my

00:36:49.380 wife divorced me.

00:36:50.380 Ethan, you're probably

00:36:54.040 aware that I know

00:36:55.160 about this, right?

00:36:56.420 I'm kind of up to

00:36:57.240 date.

00:36:58.340 Ethan.

00:36:59.300 And Ethan, I

00:37:00.100 wonder, when you

00:37:01.900 wake up in the

00:37:02.480 morning and you

00:37:05.000 start your day, do

00:37:06.980 other people say,

00:37:08.060 I'm sure glad Ethan

00:37:09.240 is awake.

00:37:10.300 Because there's a guy

00:37:11.120 who brings light and

00:37:12.140 sunshine into our

00:37:13.020 lives.

00:37:14.340 Ethan is a person

00:37:15.240 who is always looking

00:37:16.100 on the bright side.

00:37:18.540 Ethan.

00:37:20.020 Some people would

00:37:21.220 say Ethan is a 0.98

00:37:22.480 worthless piece of 1.00

00:37:24.520 shit, a dingleberry on 1.00

00:37:26.940 the ass of life. 1.00

00:37:28.900 Some would say that. 1.00

00:37:29.980 Because his

00:37:30.540 contribution to our

00:37:31.640 conversation was so 0.89

00:37:34.580 mind-bogglingly useless 0.60

00:37:38.760 and negative that one 0.95

00:37:41.780 wonders if Ethan will

00:37:43.820 make it through life.

00:37:44.660 Or is Ethan an

00:37:46.500 incel who will soon

00:37:48.800 be killing a room 0.99

00:37:49.600 full of women? 1.00

00:37:50.560 I don't know.

00:37:51.740 I don't know,

00:37:52.320 Ethan.

00:37:53.080 But it's one of

00:37:53.700 those things.

00:37:55.640 All right.

00:37:59.620 What else is going

00:38:00.560 on?

00:38:02.800 Oh, lots of things.

00:38:04.080 Lots of things are

00:38:04.740 going on.

00:38:06.180 Oil went down 30%

00:38:07.720 because oil prices

00:38:10.340 are not real.

00:38:13.020 Oil is the only

00:38:13.960 thing that doesn't

00:38:14.700 depend on the

00:38:15.500 supply and demand.

00:38:17.440 Am I right?

00:38:19.840 Maybe there's

00:38:20.600 something else.

00:38:22.420 But I've been

00:38:23.520 watching oil prices

00:38:24.580 forever.

00:38:26.160 And one thing that

00:38:26.960 is a guarantee is

00:38:29.280 that supply and

00:38:30.020 demand doesn't make

00:38:30.700 any difference.

00:38:32.420 Talking about supply

00:38:33.740 and demand makes a

00:38:34.940 difference.

00:38:35.820 Talking about it.

00:38:37.120 But the actual

00:38:37.980 supply doesn't seem

00:38:40.320 to make any

00:38:40.840 difference.

00:38:41.220 it's just the

00:38:42.680 worrying about it

00:38:43.380 that changes it.

00:38:44.700 So every time

00:38:45.420 somebody worries

00:38:46.100 about it,

00:38:46.600 somebody else

00:38:47.100 raises the price.

00:38:48.960 If I write a story

00:38:49.960 and say,

00:38:50.920 I think X will

00:38:52.200 happen so oil

00:38:53.100 prices will go up,

00:38:55.240 why happens to

00:38:56.360 the price of oil

00:38:57.020 prices?

00:38:58.080 Or what oil price

00:38:59.040 goes up, right?

00:39:00.240 If people are

00:39:01.040 talking about it

00:39:01.840 going up, it goes

00:39:02.540 up.

00:39:03.480 If people are

00:39:04.180 talking about it

00:39:04.960 going down, it goes

00:39:05.680 down.

00:39:05.940 It's not even

00:39:07.960 related to the

00:39:09.320 supply.

00:39:10.660 Now, of course

00:39:12.280 I'm exaggerating.

00:39:13.900 Because of course,

00:39:14.980 in the long run,

00:39:15.820 the supply is all

00:39:16.540 the matters.

00:39:18.260 But that's never

00:39:19.260 what we see.

00:39:20.140 We see all these

00:39:20.900 short-term,

00:39:22.280 enormous swings.

00:39:24.520 And all of it's

00:39:25.840 just psychology-based.

00:39:27.800 So yeah, oil can

00:39:28.800 go up 30%,

00:39:29.860 it can go down

00:39:30.840 30% with no

00:39:31.880 change in demand

00:39:33.200 and no change

00:39:33.900 in supply.

00:39:34.360 So remember,

00:39:36.080 all of this is 1.00

00:39:36.640 bullshit. 1.00

00:39:38.060 All of the oil 1.00

00:39:38.920 changes are just

00:39:39.880 psychology about

00:39:42.320 what we expect and

00:39:43.340 nobody can predict

00:39:44.080 the future.

00:39:45.140 So there's more

00:39:45.700 uncertainty which

00:39:46.560 raises the price.

00:39:47.640 So uncertainty

00:39:48.280 does always increase

00:39:49.740 risk which

00:39:50.340 increases price.

00:39:53.880 But I don't see

00:39:54.920 any reason that it

00:39:55.660 can't plunge

00:39:56.380 just as fast as

00:40:00.020 it went up.

00:40:01.300 How fast does

00:40:02.280 it take

00:40:02.700 people to

00:40:05.320 open up

00:40:05.820 production facilities

00:40:06.880 that used to

00:40:08.100 be not

00:40:08.780 profitable but

00:40:09.740 because the

00:40:10.160 prices are so

00:40:10.800 high they are?

00:40:11.860 It doesn't take

00:40:12.860 that long to

00:40:13.580 reopen a well,

00:40:14.440 does it?

00:40:16.560 Somebody says

00:40:17.280 years.

00:40:17.860 It takes years

00:40:18.480 to reopen a

00:40:19.200 well that's

00:40:19.900 been capped.

00:40:22.200 I would think

00:40:22.980 a month,

00:40:24.180 without knowing

00:40:24.960 anything about

00:40:25.520 anything.

00:40:26.540 I would think

00:40:27.020 a month.

00:40:27.460 if oil were

00:40:30.600 $1,000 a

00:40:31.620 barrel, you 1.00

00:40:32.720 don't think

00:40:33.040 you could drill 1.00

00:40:33.500 me a fucking 1.00

00:40:34.040 well in a 0.99

00:40:34.560 month?

00:40:36.520 Really?

00:40:38.600 That's where

00:40:39.160 this comes in.

00:40:40.100 Really?

00:40:42.020 Let's say oil

00:40:43.140 is a million

00:40:43.800 dollars a

00:40:44.380 barrel.

00:40:45.500 You don't

00:40:45.820 think you

00:40:46.140 could drill

00:40:46.440 me some new

00:40:47.120 wells in a

00:40:47.780 month?

00:40:49.580 Yeah, you

00:40:50.220 could.

00:40:51.200 Yeah, you

00:40:51.840 could.

00:40:53.960 Somebody says

00:40:54.640 three months.

00:40:55.400 I'll take

00:40:55.720 three months.

00:40:56.220 But it

00:40:57.260 seems to me

00:40:57.760 we must

00:40:58.240 already be

00:40:59.000 massively

00:40:59.580 starting to

00:41:01.880 ramp up

00:41:02.260 production

00:41:02.640 everywhere in

00:41:03.200 the world,

00:41:03.640 I would

00:41:03.980 think.

00:41:05.020 So I

00:41:05.360 don't think

00:41:05.660 oil prices

00:41:06.600 could stay

00:41:07.060 high.

00:41:09.520 What do

00:41:10.120 you think

00:41:10.340 about the

00:41:10.720 news that

00:41:11.220 China is 0.85

00:41:11.720 helping Russia

00:41:12.420 or might

00:41:13.580 help them

00:41:14.020 militarily?

00:41:15.120 Joel Pollack

00:41:15.860 tweeted,

00:41:16.820 he said,

00:41:17.660 in my opinion,

00:41:19.020 the China

00:41:19.440 helping Russia

00:41:20.040 story is

00:41:20.540 largely fake

00:41:21.240 news narrative

00:41:21.960 cooked up by

00:41:22.740 anonymous,

00:41:24.000 quote,

00:41:24.300 anonymous source,

00:41:25.300 Jake Sullivan.

00:41:26.220 Who also

00:41:26.920 briefed the

00:41:27.760 media in

00:41:28.180 2016 about

00:41:29.260 Russia collusion.

00:41:30.900 He has a

00:41:31.320 demonstrated history

00:41:32.320 of lying to

00:41:33.040 the media to

00:41:34.240 the detriment

00:41:34.760 of national

00:41:35.460 security.

00:41:39.080 That's how I

00:41:39.880 see it.

00:41:40.960 Now, I don't

00:41:41.420 know anything

00:41:41.900 about Jake

00:41:42.840 Sullivan being

00:41:43.700 involved.

00:41:44.260 That's a

00:41:44.660 different question.

00:41:46.260 Certainly,

00:41:47.000 there's reason to

00:41:47.840 suspect that this

00:41:48.960 fits his

00:41:49.420 wheelhouse.

00:41:50.040 I agree with

00:41:50.540 Joel on that.

00:41:51.120 but I don't

00:41:54.660 think I

00:41:55.160 believe that

00:41:55.820 China is 0.85

00:41:56.300 helping Russia's

00:41:57.100 story exactly.

00:41:59.260 It makes sense

00:42:00.280 that Russia is 0.53

00:42:00.940 talking to

00:42:01.520 China, and it 0.98

00:42:02.820 makes sense that

00:42:03.480 because they have

00:42:04.200 this unlimited

00:42:05.040 partnership, that

00:42:06.660 China might step up

00:42:07.900 with a little extra

00:42:08.540 trade or something

00:42:09.760 like that.

00:42:11.080 But framing it as

00:42:12.680 China helping Russia 0.86

00:42:13.840 militarily, it's a

00:42:15.880 bit of a stretch,

00:42:16.680 and it has a

00:42:18.260 persuasion feel to

00:42:20.240 it as opposed to

00:42:21.100 a news feel to

00:42:22.300 it, wouldn't you

00:42:23.180 say?

00:42:24.180 Does it feel like

00:42:24.880 news, or does it

00:42:26.780 feel like redefining

00:42:28.700 news to make it

00:42:29.940 into something new?

00:42:31.840 It feels like

00:42:32.480 reframing the news.

00:42:34.580 It feels like

00:42:35.100 persuasion.

00:42:36.320 It feels like 0.99

00:42:36.820 bullshit. 0.99

00:42:38.160 But it could be 1.00

00:42:39.020 wrong.

00:42:39.380 We'll wait and

00:42:39.820 see.

00:42:42.460 I saw some people

00:42:43.680 following me today

00:42:44.900 on Twitter.

00:42:45.660 You know, Twitter

00:42:46.120 tells you who

00:42:46.660 followed you

00:42:47.240 recently.

00:42:48.400 And I believe

00:42:49.840 that at least

00:42:50.520 two of the

00:42:51.180 three had

00:42:52.000 followed me

00:42:52.680 forever, and

00:42:54.700 they had to

00:42:55.180 refollow me

00:42:55.900 today.

00:42:57.580 And somebody

00:42:58.320 else had said

00:42:58.800 the same thing.

00:42:59.920 And this had

00:43:00.640 gone away for

00:43:01.340 months and

00:43:01.840 months.

00:43:02.460 For a long

00:43:02.920 time, I had

00:43:03.440 not had this

00:43:03.960 issue of people

00:43:04.560 being automatically

00:43:05.420 unfollowed from

00:43:06.360 me.

00:43:06.980 Has anybody

00:43:07.460 been unfollowed

00:43:08.360 from me

00:43:08.700 automatically?

00:43:14.080 I'm just

00:43:14.700 watching the

00:43:15.120 comments.

00:43:15.440 I guess the

00:43:16.740 no's don't

00:43:17.280 tell me

00:43:17.600 anything,

00:43:17.940 because most

00:43:18.360 people would

00:43:18.820 be a no.

00:43:21.340 Somebody said,

00:43:22.460 yes, I have.

00:43:23.960 Last year, yes.

00:43:27.340 Had to

00:43:27.960 refollow when

00:43:28.640 you got a new

00:43:29.060 computer.

00:43:29.600 That's weird.

00:43:30.020 So people say,

00:43:35.840 yes.

00:43:37.380 Somebody was

00:43:38.020 two years ago.

00:43:40.940 Yes.

00:43:42.040 Now, there

00:43:44.000 are enough

00:43:44.580 yeses going

00:43:45.300 by that do

00:43:46.900 those look like

00:43:47.820 people are just

00:43:49.120 mistaken?

00:43:51.040 Because I

00:43:51.920 watched my

00:43:52.520 Twitter account

00:43:53.560 reach a certain

00:43:54.600 level and then

00:43:55.280 just plateaued.

00:43:56.620 It looks like

00:43:57.480 it's throttled.

00:43:58.120 It certainly

00:43:59.580 looks like

00:44:00.100 it.

00:44:00.960 I can't

00:44:01.440 guarantee it,

00:44:02.200 but it looks

00:44:02.960 for all

00:44:04.500 appearances, it

00:44:06.740 looks that

00:44:07.040 way.

00:44:09.240 Twice.

00:44:10.540 So somebody

00:44:11.320 had to

00:44:11.620 re-subscribe

00:44:12.100 to me twice.

00:44:13.480 Yeah, the

00:44:13.780 names that I

00:44:14.360 saw re-subscribing

00:44:15.500 to me are

00:44:16.000 ones that I've

00:44:16.560 known and

00:44:17.060 communicated with

00:44:18.040 for years on

00:44:20.460 Twitter.

00:44:21.520 And they had

00:44:21.960 to re-sign up

00:44:22.900 today.

00:44:23.400 Because the

00:44:23.940 thing that,

00:44:24.760 if it had been

00:44:25.280 random names that

00:44:26.400 I was not

00:44:26.840 familiar with,

00:44:28.280 I would have

00:44:28.700 thought, oh,

00:44:29.040 they got mad

00:44:29.520 at me someday

00:44:30.080 and blocked

00:44:31.200 me or

00:44:31.680 something, and

00:44:32.700 then they

00:44:32.960 changed their

00:44:33.420 mind.

00:44:34.060 But these

00:44:34.460 are people I've

00:44:34.920 had no bad

00:44:35.840 interaction with

00:44:36.640 that I'm

00:44:37.180 pretty sure

00:44:38.040 had just

00:44:38.580 always followed

00:44:39.280 me and

00:44:39.860 had to

00:44:40.140 re-follow.

00:44:46.420 Here's the

00:44:47.040 most interesting

00:44:47.640 thing that's

00:44:48.200 happening, in

00:44:48.820 my opinion.

00:44:50.240 Did you ever

00:44:50.780 wonder what

00:44:51.300 would happen

00:44:51.780 if a

00:44:52.940 lifelong

00:44:53.460 Democrat

00:44:54.160 ever figured

00:44:55.660 out how to

00:44:56.200 design systems

00:44:57.100 that took

00:44:57.520 into account

00:44:58.200 human

00:44:59.100 motivation,

00:45:00.860 economics,

00:45:02.580 and science?

00:45:04.840 What would

00:45:05.420 happen?

00:45:06.260 Well, the

00:45:07.200 Democrats have

00:45:07.880 a lot of

00:45:08.380 supporters, so

00:45:09.880 just being a

00:45:10.460 Democrat should

00:45:11.100 help you get

00:45:11.800 elected.

00:45:12.520 Like, half of

00:45:13.020 the time you

00:45:13.380 would win just

00:45:14.080 by being the

00:45:14.660 Democrat.

00:45:15.580 But what if

00:45:16.260 you had a

00:45:16.580 Democrat who

00:45:17.160 is not just

00:45:18.160 going to win

00:45:19.180 because there

00:45:19.640 are a lot of

00:45:20.020 Democrats?

00:45:21.240 What if the

00:45:21.720 Democrat found a

00:45:22.640 way to design

00:45:24.540 systems and

00:45:25.380 solutions that

00:45:27.220 are compatible

00:45:27.740 with all

00:45:28.640 Republican

00:45:29.760 thought?

00:45:33.280 Well, that

00:45:34.400 person exists

00:45:35.180 and is running

00:45:36.320 for governor of

00:45:37.080 California,

00:45:38.400 Michael

00:45:38.660 Schellenberger.

00:45:39.820 So Michael

00:45:40.540 Schellenberger was

00:45:41.220 a lifelong Democrat

00:45:42.180 who has turned

00:45:44.640 independent, and

00:45:46.920 there are actually

00:45:48.180 more people

00:45:49.060 registered independent

00:45:50.240 in California than

00:45:51.500 either Democrat

00:45:53.020 or Republican.

00:45:54.300 If you could

00:45:55.040 actually treat the

00:45:56.040 independents as

00:45:56.800 a party and

00:45:58.340 get them to

00:45:58.900 maybe see

00:45:59.440 themselves as a

00:46:00.300 team, they

00:46:01.680 would win every

00:46:02.340 election in

00:46:02.920 California.

00:46:03.900 It's the biggest

00:46:04.420 group.

00:46:05.740 Now, I don't

00:46:06.360 think that there

00:46:06.900 are real

00:46:07.220 independents.

00:46:08.680 I think people

00:46:09.280 are really

00:46:10.000 Republican but

00:46:10.800 don't want to

00:46:11.240 say so, that

00:46:11.960 sort of thing.

00:46:13.800 But there's

00:46:14.460 certainly a lane.

00:46:16.580 You know, if

00:46:16.960 you think it's

00:46:17.780 impossible, you're

00:46:18.620 way wrong.

00:46:19.340 It's very

00:46:19.740 possible.

00:46:20.440 He can win.

00:46:21.300 Very possible.

00:46:22.400 Because here's

00:46:22.860 what he's got

00:46:23.260 going for him.

00:46:25.140 He was a

00:46:25.660 lifelong Democrat

00:46:26.460 and as far as

00:46:28.040 I can tell,

00:46:28.660 let's say his

00:46:30.360 emotional empathy

00:46:32.760 are still exactly

00:46:34.140 in that world

00:46:35.140 of trying to

00:46:36.220 make sure

00:46:36.580 everybody has

00:46:37.100 a good chance

00:46:37.840 and a good

00:46:38.140 life.

00:46:39.320 But on top

00:46:40.260 of that, he's

00:46:40.760 the only person

00:46:41.300 I've ever seen

00:46:42.060 who put

00:46:43.440 tremendous years

00:46:45.040 of effort into

00:46:46.360 figuring out

00:46:46.980 what works.

00:46:48.880 You know, he's

00:46:49.720 done written

00:46:50.280 books on these

00:46:50.920 topics, so he

00:46:51.920 knows what

00:46:52.380 works with

00:46:52.860 homeless and

00:46:53.880 with drug

00:46:54.300 addiction, because

00:46:55.380 he looked at all

00:46:56.020 the things that

00:46:56.580 people have

00:46:56.980 tried, and he

00:46:58.520 knows that what

00:46:59.040 California is

00:46:59.680 doing is on the

00:47:00.900 category of things

00:47:01.660 which have been

00:47:02.160 tried and fail.

00:47:04.020 So he wants to

00:47:04.900 try things that are

00:47:05.540 in the category of

00:47:06.380 things that have

00:47:06.900 been tried and

00:47:07.600 were greatly

00:47:08.100 successful.

00:47:10.040 How crazy is

00:47:11.000 that?

00:47:11.280 So, this is

00:47:16.080 really interesting.

00:47:17.300 What happens if

00:47:18.020 somebody has the

00:47:18.900 total skill stack

00:47:20.580 from communication,

00:47:22.720 writing, political

00:47:24.700 knowledge, he's an

00:47:27.320 expert on now

00:47:28.140 addiction, an

00:47:29.060 expert on

00:47:29.560 homelessness, by

00:47:30.660 virtue of having

00:47:31.480 studied it for

00:47:32.220 writing books, an

00:47:34.100 expert on energy,

00:47:35.560 of nuclear power,

00:47:36.680 climate change, and

00:47:40.460 even forest

00:47:41.460 management.

00:47:43.240 So, there's not a

00:47:44.740 single topic that

00:47:46.240 matters in

00:47:46.780 California that

00:47:48.640 Michael Schellenberger

00:47:49.560 doesn't know twice as

00:47:50.760 much as the current

00:47:51.840 governor.

00:47:53.760 Think about that.

00:47:55.740 And this is a

00:47:56.620 demonstrated fact.

00:47:57.660 I'm not just

00:47:58.060 saying, oh, he's

00:47:58.720 smart, I think he's

00:48:00.140 just smart.

00:48:00.620 It's not that.

00:48:01.880 I'm saying you

00:48:02.420 could just look at

00:48:03.120 the documented

00:48:03.860 life of both

00:48:05.940 people, and you

00:48:07.400 can see that

00:48:07.880 Schellenberger's

00:48:08.560 done deep dives and

00:48:10.260 super productive

00:48:11.280 activist stuff, like

00:48:13.380 talk to Congress a

00:48:14.420 number of times, talk

00:48:15.360 to other governments.

00:48:17.200 I mean, he's

00:48:17.540 persuading governments

00:48:18.460 at the highest

00:48:19.020 level about things

00:48:22.420 that are deeply

00:48:23.940 important to the

00:48:24.940 world.

00:48:25.520 So, he's got his

00:48:26.260 priorities right.

00:48:27.460 He's got the skill

00:48:28.300 set that I've never

00:48:29.100 seen, honestly.

00:48:30.160 Let me say this.

00:48:31.840 I've never seen

00:48:32.700 anybody enter

00:48:33.960 politics with as

00:48:36.220 good a skill set as

00:48:37.620 he's bringing.

00:48:39.020 Like, the right

00:48:39.900 set of talents that

00:48:40.920 all stack just

00:48:42.600 right.

00:48:43.940 You take anybody.

00:48:44.940 You take Trump.

00:48:47.040 You know, I was

00:48:47.580 obviously pro-Trump.

00:48:50.020 But even Trump

00:48:51.120 doesn't have expertise

00:48:52.240 in all these

00:48:52.840 categories.

00:48:54.040 Right?

00:48:54.200 Imagine if he

00:48:54.800 did.

00:48:56.100 Imagine Trump with

00:48:57.520 his other skills,

00:48:58.720 but also having

00:49:00.560 all the, you

00:49:01.680 know, the deep

00:49:02.180 dive analytical

00:49:04.240 ability of a

00:49:05.180 Schellenberger.

00:49:05.960 I mean, that's an

00:49:07.880 endless possibility.

00:49:09.200 But you don't have

00:49:09.800 to imagine that.

00:49:11.860 Because you can

00:49:12.520 just look at

00:49:12.980 Schellenberger.

00:49:13.960 Because he actually

00:49:14.720 has those skills.

00:49:16.540 He has everything

00:49:17.460 from the persuasion

00:49:18.540 to the communication

00:49:19.500 to insanely high

00:49:22.180 energy.

00:49:22.680 I don't know how

00:49:23.040 he gets so much

00:49:23.680 done.

00:49:24.120 You need somebody

00:49:24.640 with high energy

00:49:25.220 in politics.

00:49:25.880 And he's got

00:49:27.600 good hair.

00:49:29.300 I always make

00:49:30.060 fun of that.

00:49:30.960 You can't really

00:49:31.480 get elected unless

00:49:32.200 you have good

00:49:32.600 hair.

00:49:33.220 He has great

00:49:34.100 hair.

00:49:35.360 Let's not

00:49:35.860 underestimate the

00:49:38.340 hair.

00:49:40.380 So there you go.

00:49:41.420 Keep an eye on

00:49:42.000 California.

00:49:42.760 We might be going

00:49:43.420 from a bad

00:49:44.000 situation to a

00:49:44.760 good situation.

00:49:46.160 And at least we

00:49:47.020 have a good

00:49:47.360 choice, which I

00:49:48.460 don't think we've

00:49:49.020 ever had before.

00:49:50.860 And you should

00:49:52.160 follow Michael

00:49:53.280 Schellenberger if

00:49:54.140 you want to know

00:49:54.720 any solutions

00:49:55.620 for anything

00:49:57.620 from drug

00:49:58.940 addiction to

00:49:59.600 homeless to

00:50:00.440 nuclear energy

00:50:02.160 to crime.

00:50:05.060 Basically all

00:50:05.780 of it.

00:50:06.620 He's done pretty

00:50:07.460 much a deep

00:50:08.000 dive on everything

00:50:09.000 that matters in

00:50:09.740 California.

00:50:11.880 So what do you

00:50:14.040 think?

00:50:14.280 Does he have a

00:50:14.720 chance?

00:50:15.720 He is going to

00:50:16.320 have some powerful

00:50:17.480 people behind

00:50:18.260 him.

00:50:19.500 I'm 100% behind

00:50:20.840 him.

00:50:21.040 anybody who

00:50:25.820 thinks he

00:50:26.180 doesn't have a

00:50:26.680 chance, I

00:50:27.460 think you're

00:50:27.860 coming from

00:50:28.420 the political

00:50:29.620 parties have

00:50:30.300 all the power

00:50:30.940 perspective.

00:50:34.160 You probably

00:50:34.800 didn't think

00:50:35.700 that he could

00:50:42.500 move the

00:50:42.940 dial on

00:50:43.780 nuclear power,

00:50:44.940 did you?

00:50:46.100 Did you think

00:50:46.780 anybody could do

00:50:47.460 that?

00:50:47.700 Do you think

00:50:48.840 anybody could

00:50:49.360 enter the

00:50:50.000 conversation and

00:50:51.120 just move the

00:50:51.720 dial on

00:50:52.920 nuclear power?

00:50:54.920 He did.

00:50:56.020 He did that.

00:50:56.880 I mean, you

00:50:57.120 watched it in

00:50:58.340 real time.

00:50:59.200 I did the

00:51:00.420 play-by-play for

00:51:01.320 years watching him

00:51:02.280 do his work,

00:51:03.040 and he did it.

00:51:06.600 Musk should 1.00

00:51:07.420 endorse

00:51:07.940 Schellenberger.

00:51:10.020 Oh, there's an

00:51:11.000 idea.

00:51:11.260 Yeah, imagine if

00:51:13.360 Elon Musk backed

00:51:14.600 Michael Schellenberger

00:51:15.680 and did it

00:51:16.220 publicly.

00:51:18.080 Wow.

00:51:19.480 Because I don't

00:51:20.100 think there would

00:51:20.580 be even one

00:51:21.880 speck of

00:51:23.020 difference between

00:51:23.920 Musk's opinion

00:51:25.100 on political

00:51:26.780 stuff and

00:51:28.280 Schellenberger's.

00:51:29.000 I'll bet they

00:51:29.780 don't have one

00:51:30.300 difference of

00:51:30.860 opinion.

00:51:32.160 Because at a

00:51:33.040 certain level of

00:51:34.020 awareness,

00:51:35.580 everybody has the

00:51:36.240 same opinion.

00:51:38.680 I hate to

00:51:39.620 tell you, but

00:51:40.860 at a certain

00:51:41.820 level of

00:51:42.380 understanding of

00:51:43.300 how the world

00:51:43.780 works, all the

00:51:45.120 opinions are the

00:51:45.780 same.

00:51:47.700 Trust me, they're

00:51:48.900 all the same at

00:51:50.000 a certain point.

00:51:54.160 Could Tesla come

00:51:55.760 back to

00:51:56.100 California?

00:51:56.680 Now, that's a

00:51:57.100 big ask, and I

00:51:59.480 think taxes will

00:52:00.320 be the big

00:52:01.500 problem there.

00:52:03.960 All right.

00:52:07.540 I am going to

00:52:08.940 go do something

00:52:09.920 else.

00:52:10.220 And I think

00:52:13.020 you'd agree, this

00:52:13.700 is the best

00:52:14.440 live stream of

00:52:15.720 all time, of

00:52:17.000 all time.

00:52:18.160 And it's just

00:52:18.820 getting better.

00:52:19.860 This is the only

00:52:20.560 live stream in

00:52:21.340 which we

00:52:22.280 intentionally try to

00:52:23.280 change the world

00:52:24.080 and succeed.

00:52:26.940 Okay, maybe

00:52:27.660 others do that

00:52:28.280 too.

00:52:28.920 But I don't

00:52:30.000 know about them,

00:52:30.780 and that's the

00:52:31.340 same thing.

00:52:32.880 So,

00:52:35.140 channeling

00:52:36.280 Muhammad Ali, I

00:52:37.260 don't know that

00:52:37.680 reference in this

00:52:39.040 context.

00:52:44.100 Number 666, my

00:52:45.760 episode 666 was

00:52:47.080 still the best.

00:52:47.940 I was normal

00:52:48.500 then, before I

00:52:50.300 became abnormal.

00:52:55.620 Oh, it'll be

00:52:56.320 better tomorrow.

00:52:59.200 Wait, you have a

00:52:59.940 question?

00:53:02.040 Yes, it's the

00:53:02.800 best ever.

00:53:03.720 The best ever.

00:53:04.840 All right, that's

00:53:05.280 it for now, and I

00:53:06.220 will talk to you

00:53:07.700 all tomorrow on

00:53:09.180 YouTube.

00:53:09.480 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 15, 2022

Episode 1683 Scott Adams： Putin's Health, The Next Governor of California, Lots More

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