Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 904 Scott Adams： Today I Blow Your Mind. Goes Well With Coffee

00:00:00.500 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum. 0.99

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00:00:06.600 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum. 0.99

00:00:10.000 Bum bum.

00:00:13.120 Hey everybody. Come on in.

00:00:16.120 It's Ty. I'm For Coffee with Scott Adams and the Simultaneous Sip, and you came to the right place.

00:00:21.180 because

00:00:24.540 if you'd like to enjoy the simultaneous sip

00:00:27.060 all you need is

00:00:28.980 a cup or a mug or a glass

00:00:30.900 a tanker chair, all this or a stein

00:00:32.180 a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind

00:00:34.360 fill it with your favorite liquid

00:00:36.000 I like coffee

00:00:36.960 and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure

00:00:39.640 the dopamine hit of the day

00:00:40.940 the thing that makes everything better

00:00:42.600 including pandemics

00:00:44.620 it's called the simultaneous sip

00:00:46.420 go

00:00:47.640 extra good

00:00:54.620 a little extra good today

00:00:56.440 well

00:00:58.520 let's talk about stuff

00:01:00.360 number one

00:01:03.400 how in the world

00:01:05.320 is our government going to reopen

00:01:07.400 the economy in any kind of

00:01:09.400 irrational way

00:01:10.400 without telling overweight people

00:01:13.640 to stay home

00:01:14.480 how does that work exactly

00:01:17.240 because

00:01:19.060 it would be easy

00:01:20.820 if the government said

00:01:21.680 hey

00:01:21.940 if you have one of these

00:01:23.080 health conditions

00:01:23.960 you know

00:01:24.500 you're

00:01:24.880 let's say you have diabetes

00:01:27.080 or asthma

00:01:27.640 you should stay home

00:01:28.620 for a few months

00:01:29.320 and I would be in that category

00:01:31.620 and I'd say

00:01:32.260 okay

00:01:32.860 that's pretty objective

00:01:34.460 it seems fair

00:01:36.420 based on data

00:01:37.260 I think I'll stay home

00:01:38.500 but what happens

00:01:40.100 if the government says

00:01:41.280 if you're fat

00:01:43.660 you ought to stay home

00:01:45.440 and you can't go to work

00:01:47.300 I mean you could

00:01:48.680 but it'd be bad for the country

00:01:50.820 if you did

00:01:51.440 because

00:01:52.000 your weight

00:01:53.420 would make you extra

00:01:55.000 likely to end up

00:01:56.560 in the ICU

00:01:57.240 which would

00:01:58.660 be a problem

00:01:59.900 for our healthcare system

00:02:01.080 so please

00:02:02.480 if you're overweight

00:02:03.360 don't go to work

00:02:05.640 it's a real question

00:02:08.220 I'm not saying this

00:02:09.180 to be funny

00:02:09.780 I don't know

00:02:11.180 how a country

00:02:12.020 tells people

00:02:14.340 to stay home

00:02:15.000 if they're overweight

00:02:15.760 and if they don't

00:02:17.900 if

00:02:19.460 if whatever

00:02:20.160 you know

00:02:21.220 guidelines

00:02:22.460 come out

00:02:23.140 of the next phase

00:02:24.300 I'm assuming

00:02:25.520 that the guidelines

00:02:26.400 for going back to work

00:02:27.500 whenever that happens

00:02:28.540 will be some kind

00:02:30.060 of a

00:02:30.540 filtered system

00:02:32.100 where it's not everybody

00:02:33.320 it's

00:02:33.780 the people

00:02:34.660 who are safe

00:02:35.300 how are you

00:02:36.600 going to tell fat people

00:02:37.420 not to go to work

00:02:38.300 I mean seriously

00:02:39.180 how are you going to do that

00:02:40.240 I'm not joking

00:02:43.040 I'm not making fun

00:02:44.020 of anybody

00:02:44.440 for their weight

00:02:45.100 I don't do that

00:02:46.040 I'm just saying

00:02:47.280 how do you do that

00:02:48.120 just from a policy

00:02:49.540 practical perspective

00:02:51.440 I don't know how

00:02:52.180 that's going to work

00:02:53.320 alright let's talk

00:02:56.000 about the models

00:02:56.740 everybody wants to talk

00:02:57.680 about the models

00:02:58.920 that are so

00:02:59.740 darn wrong

00:03:01.220 so let me ask you this

00:03:03.500 do a little math

00:03:05.520 what percentage

00:03:06.860 of the total population

00:03:08.280 of the country

00:03:08.820 is New York City

00:03:10.000 well I have the answer

00:03:10.820 it's about

00:03:11.940 2.6%

00:03:13.480 of the whole country

00:03:14.680 now I'm just talking

00:03:15.860 about raw population

00:03:17.260 so of the whole country

00:03:19.200 New York City

00:03:19.900 is 2.6%

00:03:21.700 of all the people

00:03:22.500 so

00:03:24.600 what would happen

00:03:25.620 if the rest

00:03:27.260 of the country

00:03:28.000 experienced

00:03:29.560 infection rates

00:03:30.660 like New York City

00:03:31.660 now I'll get to the point

00:03:33.820 where you say

00:03:34.480 there's a different density

00:03:35.840 and the rest of the country

00:03:37.280 is different

00:03:37.700 so I'll address that

00:03:39.220 but just

00:03:40.600 let's do the math first

00:03:42.020 and then we'll adjust it

00:03:43.420 so

00:03:44.480 if the rest of the country

00:03:46.920 got infections

00:03:48.120 let's say

00:03:48.980 in the same

00:03:49.720 ratio

00:03:50.820 as New York City

00:03:51.820 I'm not saying they will

00:03:52.980 I'm just

00:03:53.740 bear with me

00:03:55.080 until I make my larger point

00:03:56.300 but if they did

00:03:57.740 how many people

00:03:59.320 would die

00:03:59.960 in the whole country

00:04:01.180 if the whole country

00:04:03.100 became similar

00:04:04.060 to New York City

00:04:04.960 and I know you think

00:04:06.860 that's not

00:04:07.440 a good comparison

00:04:08.580 and I'll get to that

00:04:10.120 just hold

00:04:10.600 that complaint

00:04:11.740 for a moment

00:04:12.300 so

00:04:13.560 just doing the math

00:04:14.640 if

00:04:15.440 New York City

00:04:16.400 has over

00:04:17.060 7,000 deaths

00:04:18.320 as of today

00:04:19.120 and they are

00:04:20.660 1.38

00:04:21.520 of the whole country

00:04:23.100 then

00:04:24.740 if the whole country

00:04:25.780 went the way

00:04:26.340 New York City

00:04:26.980 is gone

00:04:27.580 how many people

00:04:29.300 would die

00:04:29.760 and the answer

00:04:31.880 is

00:04:32.160 38 times

00:04:33.240 a little over

00:04:34.280 7,000 people

00:04:35.360 and that would look

00:04:36.960 like a national

00:04:37.800 death rate

00:04:38.360 of 269,000 people

00:04:41.620 so if the rest

00:04:43.580 of the country

00:04:44.100 goes the way

00:04:44.740 New York City

00:04:45.320 goes

00:04:45.760 I'm not saying

00:04:46.480 it will

00:04:46.840 this is just

00:04:48.920 for sizing things

00:04:50.100 I'll get to the point

00:04:51.160 it would be

00:04:52.620 over a quarter

00:04:53.640 million people

00:04:54.260 would die

00:04:54.680 you would call

00:04:56.600 that a big

00:04:57.040 problem

00:04:57.400 right

00:04:57.660 now I know

00:04:59.040 the next thing

00:04:59.880 you're going to say

00:05:00.340 is but Scott

00:05:01.100 Scott Scott

00:05:01.660 New York City

00:05:02.680 has more travel

00:05:03.720 has more density

00:05:04.700 they got a later

00:05:06.080 start

00:05:06.620 so let's calculate

00:05:08.020 that all in

00:05:08.720 what I'd like

00:05:10.640 to compare

00:05:11.160 is a mitigation

00:05:12.560 a mitigation

00:05:14.960 strategy

00:05:15.620 versus none

00:05:16.540 now New York City

00:05:17.980 is interesting

00:05:18.540 because

00:05:19.060 they are fully

00:05:20.400 mitigated

00:05:21.080 or close

00:05:22.460 to it

00:05:22.800 but they

00:05:23.640 got kind

00:05:24.060 of a late

00:05:24.480 start

00:05:24.900 so you

00:05:26.580 can't say

00:05:27.060 that New York

00:05:27.480 City is fully

00:05:28.380 mitigated

00:05:29.000 you could say

00:05:30.060 it's

00:05:30.360 it got a late

00:05:31.840 start

00:05:32.240 but then it

00:05:32.840 did a good

00:05:33.220 job

00:05:33.480 so it's

00:05:33.760 maybe

00:05:34.020 partially

00:05:34.980 mitigated

00:05:35.700 half

00:05:36.100 half mitigated

00:05:37.080 something like

00:05:37.680 that

00:05:37.960 so the

00:05:39.300 7,000

00:05:39.980 S

00:05:40.260 if they

00:05:41.520 had not

00:05:41.900 mitigated

00:05:42.460 we all

00:05:44.120 agree

00:05:44.380 would be

00:05:44.700 much

00:05:45.020 higher

00:05:45.540 right

00:05:45.860 but we

00:05:46.320 don't know

00:05:46.600 how much

00:05:46.960 higher

00:05:47.180 would it

00:05:47.920 be double

00:05:48.380 would it

00:05:49.280 be 10,000

00:05:50.020 let's say

00:05:51.000 it was

00:05:51.180 double

00:05:51.500 let's say

00:05:53.040 the problem

00:05:53.560 in New York

00:05:54.000 City

00:05:54.300 would be

00:05:55.780 double

00:05:56.240 twice as

00:05:56.920 many people

00:05:57.440 dying

00:05:57.820 if they

00:05:59.120 did no

00:05:59.540 mitigation

00:06:00.060 is that

00:06:00.540 fair

00:06:00.820 would you

00:06:02.200 say

00:06:02.380 double

00:06:02.740 because

00:06:04.060 the

00:06:04.340 mitigation

00:06:04.720 is pretty

00:06:05.200 extreme

00:06:05.640 it's

00:06:06.080 like

00:06:06.380 cutting

00:06:06.640 out

00:06:06.920 the whole

00:06:07.980 economy

00:06:08.400 basically

00:06:08.820 so I

00:06:09.880 would say

00:06:10.300 double

00:06:11.260 seems

00:06:11.620 reasonable

00:06:12.060 and we're

00:06:12.480 just sizing

00:06:13.000 things

00:06:13.380 right

00:06:13.620 I'm not

00:06:14.080 saying

00:06:14.280 that's

00:06:14.560 accurate

00:06:14.840 just to

00:06:15.280 size

00:06:15.540 things

00:06:15.860 so

00:06:17.200 if the

00:06:18.140 rest of

00:06:18.440 the

00:06:18.520 country

00:06:18.800 went

00:06:19.080 like

00:06:19.320 New York

00:06:19.620 City

00:06:19.940 and if

00:06:20.940 unlike

00:06:21.920 New York

00:06:22.300 City

00:06:22.520 they had

00:06:22.920 not

00:06:23.160 mitigated

00:06:23.700 what would

00:06:24.180 it look

00:06:24.420 like

00:06:24.700 and I

00:06:25.480 think

00:06:25.620 the numbers

00:06:26.100 coming out

00:06:26.580 of New York

00:06:26.920 City

00:06:27.160 suggest

00:06:27.720 that it

00:06:28.540 would be

00:06:28.780 about

00:06:29.140 half a

00:06:29.940 million

00:06:30.160 people

00:06:30.560 or more

00:06:31.000 would die

00:06:33.440 if we

00:06:34.740 didn't

00:06:35.060 mitigate

00:06:35.380 and it

00:06:37.320 looked a

00:06:38.000 lot like

00:06:38.420 New York

00:06:38.760 City

00:06:39.000 but then

00:06:39.460 you say

00:06:39.840 okay

00:06:40.180 but now

00:06:40.840 you get

00:06:41.240 to the

00:06:41.460 good

00:06:41.600 part

00:06:41.840 Scott

00:06:42.160 where you

00:06:43.000 say

00:06:43.180 the rest

00:06:43.540 of the

00:06:43.820 city

00:06:44.060 is

00:06:44.320 the rest

00:06:44.800 of the

00:06:44.940 country

00:06:45.160 is not

00:06:45.540 at all

00:06:45.900 like

00:06:46.100 New York

00:06:46.400 City

00:06:46.640 so

00:06:47.560 first of

00:06:47.960 all

00:06:48.060 there's

00:06:48.260 no

00:06:48.420 density

00:06:48.840 doesn't

00:06:50.340 matter

00:06:50.680 it

00:06:52.500 doesn't

00:06:52.780 matter

00:06:53.100 do you

00:06:54.680 get why

00:06:55.020 it doesn't

00:06:55.460 matter

00:06:55.680 that New York

00:06:56.180 City

00:06:56.420 is dense

00:06:57.040 and the

00:06:58.340 other ones

00:06:58.780 don't

00:06:59.120 even though

00:06:59.580 the density

00:07:00.080 of course

00:07:00.800 makes a

00:07:01.880 big difference

00:07:02.460 in how

00:07:03.020 many people

00:07:03.560 spread it

00:07:04.220 right

00:07:04.420 here's

00:07:05.520 why

00:07:05.800 because

00:07:06.860 the time

00:07:07.440 if

00:07:08.140 if

00:07:08.160 you're

00:07:08.320 not

00:07:08.540 mitigating

00:07:09.160 the rest

00:07:10.540 of the

00:07:10.740 country

00:07:11.020 has

00:07:11.280 time

00:07:11.620 to

00:07:11.800 get

00:07:11.960 just

00:07:12.240 as

00:07:12.420 infected

00:07:12.880 as

00:07:13.760 the

00:07:13.900 people

00:07:14.140 in

00:07:14.320 the

00:07:14.440 elevators

00:07:14.920 in

00:07:15.100 New York

00:07:15.360 City

00:07:15.620 in

00:07:16.600 theory

00:07:16.960 if

00:07:17.220 nobody

00:07:17.580 mitigated

00:07:18.160 it

00:07:19.020 would

00:07:19.140 go

00:07:19.320 like

00:07:19.560 this

00:07:19.940 New

00:07:20.900 York

00:07:21.120 City

00:07:21.400 would

00:07:21.720 very

00:07:22.160 quickly

00:07:22.700 get

00:07:23.120 infected

00:07:23.640 because

00:07:24.260 they're

00:07:24.580 more

00:07:24.920 density

00:07:25.340 and

00:07:25.640 travel

00:07:25.980 and

00:07:26.180 elevators

00:07:26.700 and

00:07:26.840 all

00:07:26.960 that

00:07:27.120 stuff

00:07:27.360 subways

00:07:27.820 so

00:07:28.700 New

00:07:28.880 York

00:07:29.020 City

00:07:29.220 would

00:07:29.420 quickly

00:07:29.780 get

00:07:30.040 to

00:07:30.260 let's

00:07:30.560 say

00:07:30.800 60%

00:07:32.100 infection

00:07:32.780 at

00:07:34.160 which

00:07:34.380 point

00:07:34.680 a

00:07:34.920 little

00:07:35.060 bit

00:07:35.240 of

00:07:35.400 herd

00:07:35.980 immunity

00:07:36.940 would

00:07:37.220 start

00:07:37.480 kicking

00:07:37.800 in

00:07:38.180 and

00:07:38.880 then

00:07:39.040 the

00:07:39.360 virus

00:07:40.080 would

00:07:40.360 start

00:07:40.560 slowing

00:07:40.940 down

00:07:41.340 because

00:07:41.600 so

00:07:41.780 many

00:07:41.960 people

00:07:42.240 had

00:07:42.420 been

00:07:42.560 infected

00:07:42.980 that

00:07:44.080 you

00:07:44.360 couldn't

00:07:44.700 necessarily

00:07:45.180 spread

00:07:45.620 it

00:07:45.800 as

00:07:45.980 easily

00:07:46.280 you'd

00:07:46.740 be

00:07:46.860 running

00:07:47.080 into

00:07:47.320 people

00:07:47.600 who

00:07:47.760 already

00:07:48.020 had

00:07:48.180 immunity

00:07:48.500 so

00:07:49.260 New

00:07:49.440 York

00:07:49.620 City

00:07:49.820 would

00:07:50.040 rather

00:07:50.420 quickly

00:07:51.060 get

00:07:51.380 to

00:07:51.580 herd

00:07:51.800 immunity

00:07:52.300 but

00:07:53.180 at

00:07:53.480 the

00:07:53.660 cost

00:07:54.020 of

00:07:54.280 tens

00:07:54.940 of

00:07:55.140 thousands

00:07:55.400 of

00:07:55.700 deaths

00:07:55.980 a

00:07:57.300 smaller

00:07:57.660 place

00:07:58.080 with

00:07:58.360 less

00:07:58.820 with

00:08:00.440 less

00:08:00.900 density

00:08:01.780 would

00:08:03.120 still

00:08:03.460 get

00:08:03.680 to

00:08:03.860 60%

00:08:04.800 it

00:08:05.640 just

00:08:05.840 would

00:08:06.020 take

00:08:06.240 longer

00:08:06.620 but

00:08:07.340 remember

00:08:07.720 in

00:08:08.000 both

00:08:08.240 cases

00:08:08.700 there's

00:08:09.280 no

00:08:09.500 mitigation

00:08:10.000 happening

00:08:10.460 so

00:08:11.500 the

00:08:11.800 undense

00:08:12.480 place

00:08:12.860 will

00:08:13.120 still

00:08:13.380 get

00:08:13.560 to

00:08:13.700 60%

00:08:14.520 it

00:08:15.220 just

00:08:15.380 might

00:08:15.600 take

00:08:15.860 a

00:08:16.000 month

00:08:16.260 instead

00:08:16.580 of

00:08:16.740 a

00:08:16.860 week

00:08:17.140 so

00:08:18.440 if

00:08:18.600 you're

00:08:18.760 comparing

00:08:19.080 New

00:08:19.280 York

00:08:19.440 City's

00:08:19.860 outcome

00:08:20.300 to

00:08:21.400 a

00:08:21.620 less

00:08:21.860 dense

00:08:22.180 place

00:08:22.620 I

00:08:22.940 would

00:08:23.100 say

00:08:23.260 the

00:08:23.460 only

00:08:23.640 difference

00:08:24.000 is

00:08:24.180 how

00:08:24.340 long

00:08:24.760 it

00:08:24.940 takes

00:08:25.400 to

00:08:26.380 get

00:08:26.560 to

00:08:26.740 herd

00:08:26.940 immunity

00:08:27.280 but

00:08:27.580 they

00:08:27.740 would

00:08:27.860 both

00:08:30.900 so

00:08:32.540 that's

00:08:32.740 the

00:08:32.840 first

00:08:33.020 thing

00:08:33.260 so

00:08:33.940 I

00:08:34.160 think

00:08:34.360 that

00:08:34.580 you

00:08:34.780 could

00:08:35.060 say

00:08:35.420 based

00:08:36.540 on how

00:08:36.860 many

00:08:37.020 people

00:08:37.300 have died

00:08:37.640 in

00:08:37.800 New

00:08:37.940 York

00:08:38.120 City

00:08:38.360 that

00:08:39.600 the

00:08:40.320 risk

00:08:40.700 of

00:08:40.920 not

00:08:41.300 mitigating

00:08:41.900 was

00:08:42.820 probably

00:08:43.320 somewhere

00:08:43.940 in the

00:08:44.780 half a

00:08:45.220 million

00:08:45.420 range

00:08:46.040 half a

00:08:47.880 million

00:08:48.040 people

00:08:48.340 dead

00:08:48.620 now

00:08:50.640 the

00:08:50.780 people

00:08:51.000 are

00:08:51.140 saying

00:08:51.380 that

00:08:51.600 this

00:08:52.020 is

00:08:52.200 still

00:08:52.540 flu

00:08:53.760 like

00:08:54.120 levels

00:08:54.500 of

00:08:54.700 death

00:08:54.960 how

00:08:55.720 do

00:08:55.880 you

00:08:56.020 explain

00:08:56.460 the

00:08:56.660 fact

00:08:56.940 that

00:08:57.740 they're

00:08:57.920 doing

00:08:58.180 mass

00:08:58.620 burials

00:08:59.140 in

00:08:59.460 the

00:09:00.500 park

00:09:00.940 in

00:09:01.640 New

00:09:01.800 York

00:09:01.960 City

00:09:02.280 have

00:09:02.980 we

00:09:03.140 ever

00:09:03.320 had

00:09:03.500 to

00:09:03.600 do

00:09:03.740 mass

00:09:04.120 burials

00:09:04.700 in

00:09:05.660 the

00:09:05.800 park

00:09:06.160 because

00:09:06.600 of

00:09:06.720 the

00:09:06.840 flu

00:09:07.100 are

00:09:08.500 you

00:09:08.660 still

00:09:08.940 not

00:09:09.200 ready

00:09:09.460 to

00:09:09.760 admit

00:09:10.140 there's

00:09:10.420 something

00:09:10.680 different

00:09:11.060 about

00:09:11.340 this

00:09:11.560 one

00:09:11.780 it's

00:09:12.580 a little

00:09:12.800 extra

00:09:13.200 deadly

00:09:13.560 I gave

00:09:14.980 this

00:09:15.140 example

00:09:15.480 last

00:09:15.820 night

00:09:16.020 but I'd

00:09:16.440 like

00:09:16.620 to

00:09:16.760 do

00:09:16.860 it

00:09:16.960 again

00:09:17.200 which

00:09:18.000 is

00:09:18.320 there

00:09:18.680 are

00:09:18.740 two

00:09:18.880 ways

00:09:19.200 that

00:09:19.360 virus

00:09:20.680 can

00:09:20.940 get

00:09:21.160 you

00:09:21.300 one

00:09:22.140 is

00:09:22.300 if

00:09:22.480 it's

00:09:22.660 extra

00:09:22.980 deadly

00:09:23.380 but

00:09:25.060 the

00:09:25.200 other

00:09:25.400 is

00:09:25.640 if

00:09:25.820 it's

00:09:30.500 it's

00:09:31.480 still

00:09:31.660 going

00:09:31.820 to

00:09:31.920 kill

00:09:32.080 a lot

00:09:32.320 of

00:09:32.440 people

00:09:32.720 because

00:09:33.120 so

00:09:33.320 many

00:09:33.480 people

00:09:33.720 get

00:09:34.040 it

00:09:34.280 that

00:09:35.080 even

00:09:35.300 if

00:09:35.520 a

00:09:35.640 low

00:09:35.980 percentage

00:09:36.560 die

00:09:37.040 so

00:09:37.800 many

00:09:38.000 people

00:09:38.260 have

00:09:38.620 it

00:09:38.860 that

00:09:39.760 it's

00:09:39.900 still

00:09:40.020 a lot

00:09:40.260 of

00:09:40.360 people

00:09:40.540 dying

00:09:40.880 compared

00:09:42.040 to

00:09:42.340 one

00:09:42.600 that's

00:09:42.800 really

00:09:43.140 extra

00:09:43.540 deadly

00:09:43.960 but

00:09:44.720 it

00:09:44.820 doesn't

00:09:45.120 travel

00:09:45.460 very

00:09:45.780 far

00:09:46.060 because

00:09:46.360 the

00:09:46.660 host

00:09:47.100 dies

00:09:47.460 so

00:09:47.660 quickly

00:09:47.960 well

00:09:48.800 you

00:09:48.920 can

00:09:49.040 still

00:09:49.220 get

00:09:49.360 up

00:09:49.460 to

00:09:49.560 a

00:09:49.680 lot

00:09:49.820 of

00:09:49.940 deaths

00:09:50.260 because

00:09:50.720 they

00:09:50.900 die

00:09:51.140 as

00:09:51.320 soon

00:09:51.420 as

00:09:51.540 they

00:09:51.660 get

00:09:51.820 it

00:10:00.500 one

00:10:00.660 that's

00:10:00.900 worse

00:10:01.160 than

00:10:01.380 all

00:10:01.660 of

00:10:01.800 them

00:10:02.020 what

00:10:03.580 happens

00:10:04.060 if

00:10:04.360 it's

00:10:04.540 extra

00:10:04.980 viral

00:10:05.500 and

00:10:06.840 extra

00:10:07.260 deadly

00:10:07.620 what

00:10:09.060 do

00:10:09.160 you

00:10:09.240 do

00:10:09.520 well

00:10:10.480 that's

00:10:11.000 at

00:10:11.600 least

00:10:11.820 a

00:10:12.040 possibility

00:10:12.600 that

00:10:13.000 was

00:10:13.200 presented

00:10:13.680 early

00:10:14.140 on

00:10:14.480 when

00:10:14.740 our

00:10:15.660 experts

00:10:16.080 were

00:10:16.300 looking

00:10:16.580 at

00:10:16.760 China

00:10:17.140 correct

00:10:18.700 me

00:10:18.920 if

00:10:19.060 I'm

00:10:19.200 wrong

00:10:19.520 but

00:10:19.960 when

00:10:20.180 we

00:10:20.320 were

00:10:20.460 first

00:10:20.760 looking

00:10:20.960 at

00:10:21.120 China

00:10:21.360 and

00:10:21.500 we

00:10:21.660 didn't

00:10:21.860 have

00:10:22.040 good

00:10:22.280 data

00:10:22.660 and

00:10:23.340 we

00:10:23.460 were

00:10:23.480 just

00:10:23.660 sort

00:10:23.840 of

00:10:23.960 observing

00:10:24.420 and

00:10:24.960 not

00:10:25.320 believing

00:10:25.700 what

00:10:25.920 they're

00:10:26.060 telling

00:10:26.320 us

00:10:26.720 did

00:10:30.500 be

00:10:30.760 the

00:10:31.020 blackest 0.99

00:10:31.620 of

00:10:31.800 all

00:10:32.000 black

00:10:32.340 swans

00:10:32.900 and

00:10:33.940 the

00:10:34.080 one

00:10:34.280 that

00:10:34.440 would

00:10:34.720 be

00:10:34.860 extra

00:10:35.280 viral

00:10:35.740 and

00:10:36.740 extra

00:10:37.140 deadly

00:10:37.520 now

00:10:38.980 I

00:10:39.260 don't

00:10:39.400 think

00:10:39.600 it's

00:10:39.760 going

00:10:39.880 to

00:10:39.960 turn

00:10:40.140 out

00:10:40.320 that

00:10:40.500 way

00:10:40.720 as

00:10:41.100 more

00:10:41.480 information

00:10:41.940 comes

00:10:42.240 in

00:10:42.380 I

00:10:42.520 think

00:10:42.840 it's

00:10:43.080 going

00:10:43.240 to

00:10:43.300 be

00:10:43.560 extra

00:10:44.480 viral

00:10:44.980 but

00:10:45.920 not

00:10:46.180 extra

00:10:46.520 deadly

00:10:46.880 still

00:10:48.580 very

00:10:48.860 dangerous

00:10:49.360 but

00:10:50.340 probably

00:10:51.120 lots

00:10:51.380 of

00:10:51.500 people

00:10:51.700 didn't

00:10:52.000 get

00:10:52.140 a

00:10:52.240 problem

00:10:52.480 with

00:10:52.660 it

00:10:52.960 so

00:10:55.080 if

00:10:56.180 the

00:10:56.360 experts

00:10:56.920 were

00:10:57.520 looking

00:10:57.820 into

00:10:58.080 this

00:10:58.320 fog 0.57

00:10:58.660 of

00:10:58.840 war

00:10:59.080 and

00:11:00.500 can't

00:11:00.640 yet

00:11:00.860 rule

00:11:01.260 out

00:11:01.680 that

00:11:02.000 this

00:11:02.220 is

00:11:02.360 the

00:11:02.540 worst

00:11:02.840 of

00:11:03.020 the

00:11:03.160 worst

00:11:03.380 kind

00:11:03.860 extra

00:11:04.900 viral

00:11:05.320 and

00:11:05.700 extra

00:11:06.040 deadly

00:11:06.360 because

00:11:06.620 it's

00:11:06.800 sort

00:11:06.980 of

00:11:07.100 looking

00:11:07.300 like

00:11:07.600 it

00:11:07.800 you

00:11:08.440 know

00:11:08.580 we're

00:11:08.760 watching

00:11:09.060 them

00:11:09.300 what

00:11:09.940 they're

00:11:10.080 doing

00:11:10.300 in

00:11:10.420 Wuhan

00:11:10.720 and

00:11:11.040 that's

00:11:11.260 not

00:11:11.480 normal

00:11:11.840 they're

00:11:12.060 not

00:11:12.260 acting

00:11:12.560 like

00:11:12.820 it's

00:11:12.980 some

00:11:13.120 kind

00:11:13.300 of

00:11:13.400 normal

00:11:13.760 thing

00:11:14.760 so

00:11:15.800 was

00:11:17.100 it

00:11:17.260 reasonable

00:11:17.660 for

00:11:18.020 our

00:11:18.300 experts

00:11:18.760 to

00:11:19.040 say

00:11:19.360 shut

00:11:20.000 down

00:11:20.260 the

00:11:20.420 country

00:11:20.760 because

00:11:21.700 we

00:11:21.860 don't

00:11:22.080 know

00:11:22.320 yet

00:11:22.680 but

00:11:23.420 whatever

00:11:23.700 is

00:11:23.860 happening

00:11:24.140 in

00:11:24.340 China

00:11:24.640 that

00:11:25.520 might

00:11:25.740 be

00:11:25.940 extra

00:11:26.340 viral

00:11:26.780 and

00:11:27.120 extra

00:11:27.460 deadly

00:11:27.780 and

00:11:28.100 we've

00:11:28.320 never

00:11:28.500 seen

00:11:28.760 one

00:11:28.960 of

00:11:29.080 those

00:11:29.400 that

00:11:30.340 could

00:11:30.720 be

00:11:30.840 like

00:11:31.040 the

00:11:31.180 big

00:11:31.360 one

00:11:31.580 so

00:11:32.740 I

00:11:33.160 don't

00:11:33.440 blame

00:11:33.740 the

00:11:33.940 experts

00:11:34.480 for

00:11:34.940 being

00:11:35.260 extra

00:11:35.760 cautious

00:11:36.280 if

00:11:36.740 it

00:11:37.420 turns

00:11:37.660 out

00:11:37.880 that

00:11:38.020 that's

00:11:38.260 what

00:11:38.400 happened

00:11:38.680 they

00:11:38.860 were

00:11:38.980 extra

00:11:39.300 cautious

00:11:39.700 because

00:11:40.680 there

00:11:40.800 were

00:11:40.940 unknowns

00:11:41.340 and

00:11:42.240 certainly

00:11:42.680 there

00:11:42.980 was

00:11:43.320 at least

00:11:45.120 reason

00:11:45.520 to believe

00:11:45.900 that this

00:11:46.320 was

00:11:46.560 the

00:11:46.740 big

00:11:46.920 one

00:11:47.080 even

00:11:47.360 if

00:11:47.520 it

00:11:47.620 turns

00:11:47.800 out

00:11:47.980 it's

00:11:48.120 not

00:11:48.440 but

00:11:49.580 even

00:11:49.820 if

00:11:50.000 it's

00:11:50.140 not

00:11:50.340 the

00:11:50.680 big

00:11:50.980 one

00:11:51.240 let's

00:11:52.060 say

00:11:52.240 the

00:11:52.440 big

00:11:52.700 one

00:11:52.880 would

00:11:53.080 have

00:11:53.200 killed

00:11:53.440 tens

00:11:53.760 of

00:11:53.920 millions

00:11:54.160 of

00:11:54.340 people

00:11:54.600 I

00:11:55.400 think

00:11:55.600 this

00:11:55.880 one

00:11:56.160 would

00:11:56.460 be

00:11:56.800 without

00:11:57.300 mitigation

00:11:57.820 maybe

00:11:58.180 half a

00:11:58.600 million

00:11:58.780 people

00:11:59.200 and

00:12:00.220 that's

00:12:00.760 just

00:12:00.960 multiplying

00:12:01.900 New York

00:12:03.020 City's

00:12:03.420 population

00:12:03.940 by the

00:12:04.360 rest

00:12:04.560 of the

00:12:04.780 country

00:12:05.120 and

00:12:05.960 making

00:12:06.200 the

00:12:06.420 assumption

00:12:06.760 that

00:12:07.280 New York

00:12:08.440 City

00:12:08.660 would

00:12:08.880 get it

00:12:09.200 faster

00:12:09.760 but

00:12:10.660 if

00:12:10.780 you

00:12:10.880 didn't

00:12:11.040 do

00:12:11.180 any

00:12:11.380 mitigation

00:12:11.900 eventually

00:12:12.820 the whole

00:12:13.860 country

00:12:14.160 would have

00:12:14.460 the same

00:12:14.820 rate

00:12:15.080 of

00:12:15.220 infection

00:12:15.640 eventually

00:12:16.080 so

00:12:17.600 what

00:12:18.880 about

00:12:19.200 the

00:12:19.720 complaint

00:12:20.220 that

00:12:20.720 the

00:12:20.960 models

00:12:21.440 are

00:12:22.340 completely

00:12:22.860 broken

00:12:23.400 and

00:12:24.040 corrupt

00:12:24.720 and

00:12:25.100 wrong

00:12:25.540 and

00:12:26.180 we

00:12:26.320 made

00:12:26.560 all

00:12:26.720 the

00:12:26.860 wrong

00:12:27.080 decisions

00:12:27.540 because

00:12:27.960 the

00:12:28.200 models

00:12:28.500 were

00:12:28.740 so

00:12:29.020 flawed

00:12:29.520 one

00:12:31.300 of

00:12:31.400 the

00:12:31.500 people

00:12:31.720 getting

00:12:31.980 a lot

00:12:32.260 of

00:12:32.380 attention

00:12:32.760 for

00:12:33.260 that

00:12:33.560 point

00:12:33.900 of

00:12:34.040 view

00:12:34.240 is

00:12:34.880 ex

00:12:35.340 New York

00:12:35.680 Times

00:12:35.960 writer

00:12:36.300 Alex

00:12:36.800 Berenson

00:12:37.820 a number

00:12:38.540 of you

00:12:38.840 had been

00:12:39.100 asking

00:12:39.400 me

00:12:39.600 what

00:12:39.800 about

00:12:40.000 that

00:12:40.220 guy

00:12:40.620 he

00:12:41.460 saying

00:12:41.820 and

00:12:43.420 he

00:12:43.580 saying

00:12:43.900 that

00:12:44.240 you

00:12:45.440 know

00:12:45.560 we've

00:12:45.840 made

00:12:46.000 this

00:12:46.260 drastic

00:12:47.400 change

00:12:47.840 to

00:12:48.040 shut

00:12:48.240 down

00:12:48.400 the

00:12:48.540 economy

00:12:48.920 but

00:12:50.740 it's

00:12:50.940 based

00:12:51.160 on

00:12:51.380 modeling

00:12:51.720 that

00:12:52.040 doesn't

00:12:52.420 line

00:12:52.800 up

00:12:53.020 with

00:12:53.240 the

00:12:53.400 realities

00:12:53.860 so

00:12:54.960 he's

00:12:55.180 saying

00:12:55.400 that

00:12:55.580 the

00:12:55.720 models

00:12:56.180 are

00:12:57.020 not

00:12:57.440 showing

00:12:58.800 to be

00:12:59.200 correct

00:12:59.700 and

00:13:00.820 therefore

00:13:01.140 it was

00:13:01.440 a giant

00:13:01.780 mistake

00:13:02.320 to

00:13:03.260 use

00:13:03.880 the

00:13:04.040 models

00:13:04.320 to

00:13:04.520 make

00:13:04.700 decisions

00:13:05.280 but

00:13:06.940 here's

00:13:08.180 what

00:13:08.360 Alex

00:13:08.700 Berenson

00:13:09.080 and

00:13:09.560 almost

00:13:09.980 all

00:13:10.260 of

00:13:10.420 the

00:13:10.520 rest

00:13:10.740 of

00:13:10.860 the

00:13:10.960 public

00:13:11.240 does

00:13:11.500 not

00:13:11.740 understand

00:13:12.300 unless

00:13:12.720 they

00:13:12.880 watched

00:13:13.140 me

00:13:13.300 last

00:13:13.560 night

00:13:13.760 on

00:13:13.880 my

00:13:14.040 periscope

00:13:14.520 prediction

00:13:16.880 models

00:13:17.420 are not

00:13:19.180 designed

00:13:19.720 to predict

00:13:20.600 anything

00:13:21.080 if you

00:13:23.020 thought they

00:13:23.480 were

00:13:23.800 you would

00:13:24.700 agree with

00:13:25.380 Alex

00:13:25.860 Berenson

00:13:26.280 and you

00:13:27.280 would agree

00:13:27.640 with all

00:13:28.120 of the

00:13:28.320 people who

00:13:28.700 said

00:13:28.860 hey

00:13:29.220 you

00:13:30.100 predicted

00:13:30.580 it would

00:13:30.940 be this

00:13:31.540 it's

00:13:32.220 way off

00:13:32.880 and you've

00:13:34.160 already

00:13:34.360 changed

00:13:34.780 your

00:13:34.960 prediction

00:13:36.120 from

00:13:36.620 100,000

00:13:37.960 worst case

00:13:38.580 to 60,000

00:13:39.540 and those

00:13:40.380 are not

00:13:40.700 really that

00:13:41.160 close

00:13:41.620 so therefore

00:13:43.240 your model

00:13:43.820 was always

00:13:44.340 wrong

00:13:44.700 and you've

00:13:46.280 proved it

00:13:46.800 by changing

00:13:48.200 it so much

00:13:48.840 all the way

00:13:49.240 down to

00:13:49.660 60,000

00:13:50.540 deaths

00:13:50.920 obvious

00:13:52.460 right

00:13:52.800 if you

00:13:54.320 said

00:13:54.520 100,000

00:13:55.260 but now

00:13:56.000 you've

00:13:56.240 revised

00:13:56.800 it to

00:13:57.160 60

00:13:57.540 well clearly

00:13:58.580 the 100,000

00:13:59.320 was totally

00:13:59.880 wrong

00:14:00.280 right

00:14:01.480 because

00:14:02.340 60,000

00:14:03.060 and 100,000

00:14:03.740 are not

00:14:04.040 really very

00:14:04.500 close

00:14:05.020 common

00:14:06.360 sense

00:14:06.760 right

00:14:07.080 wrong

00:14:09.000 and now

00:14:10.560 watch me

00:14:11.060 blow your 0.91

00:14:12.260 mind

00:14:12.760 it's a

00:14:13.660 little thing

00:14:14.040 called

00:14:14.300 context

00:14:14.980 so when

00:14:17.000 we saw

00:14:17.340 the original

00:14:17.920 estimates

00:14:19.000 there was

00:14:19.760 one curve

00:14:20.340 that said

00:14:20.680 if you do

00:14:21.100 no mitigation

00:14:21.840 maybe a

00:14:23.120 million at

00:14:23.640 one point

00:14:24.220 there was

00:14:25.020 some model

00:14:25.500 that said

00:14:25.820 two million

00:14:26.340 but I

00:14:27.260 think we

00:14:27.580 fairly

00:14:27.940 quickly

00:14:28.320 got to

00:14:28.900 a million

00:14:29.940 people

00:14:30.300 dying

00:14:30.700 at the

00:14:31.140 high end

00:14:31.660 in the

00:14:31.980 United

00:14:32.240 States

00:14:32.700 the low

00:14:34.820 number

00:14:35.160 with

00:14:35.580 mitigation

00:14:36.120 was

00:14:37.320 100,000

00:14:38.220 originally

00:14:38.880 not

00:14:39.660 originally

00:14:40.060 but for

00:14:40.640 a while

00:14:41.020 and then

00:14:42.400 more recently

00:14:42.980 it dropped

00:14:43.400 to 60,000

00:14:44.340 here's the

00:14:45.880 context

00:14:46.380 you're

00:14:46.700 missing

00:14:46.960 if you

00:14:49.080 consider

00:14:49.500 the

00:14:49.780 gigantic

00:14:50.380 range

00:14:50.940 of

00:14:51.120 uncertainty

00:14:51.680 is

00:14:53.140 60,000

00:14:53.940 and 100,000

00:14:54.920 really

00:14:55.280 different

00:14:55.700 it really

00:14:57.680 isn't

00:14:58.140 they're

00:14:59.420 practically

00:14:59.960 the same

00:15:00.500 number

00:15:00.860 if you

00:15:02.300 consider

00:15:02.760 the wide

00:15:03.700 range

00:15:04.080 now I

00:15:04.760 get that

00:15:05.120 both of

00:15:05.500 these

00:15:05.780 are with

00:15:06.560 mitigation

00:15:07.100 but do

00:15:08.620 you think

00:15:08.940 there's

00:15:09.200 anybody

00:15:09.500 in the

00:15:09.820 world

00:15:10.140 who knows

00:15:11.660 how to

00:15:12.260 model

00:15:12.720 mitigation

00:15:13.580 in the

00:15:14.060 United

00:15:14.340 States

00:15:14.800 it's

00:15:15.720 never

00:15:15.960 been

00:15:16.160 done

00:15:16.460 how

00:15:17.300 could

00:15:17.500 you

00:15:17.620 possibly

00:15:18.080 model

00:15:18.580 mitigation

00:15:19.740 you don't

00:15:21.420 know how

00:15:21.720 well people

00:15:22.260 are going

00:15:22.560 to do

00:15:22.880 it

00:15:23.100 you don't

00:15:23.800 know

00:15:24.120 if it's

00:15:24.740 different

00:15:25.000 in different

00:15:25.340 places

00:15:25.700 you don't

00:15:26.160 know if

00:15:26.380 there's a

00:15:26.700 cultural

00:15:27.040 problem

00:15:27.520 you don't

00:15:28.220 know if

00:15:28.480 people keep

00:15:29.060 with it

00:15:29.520 you don't

00:15:30.100 know if

00:15:30.340 they're

00:15:30.460 washing

00:15:30.720 their

00:15:30.960 hands

00:15:31.240 too

00:15:31.600 I mean

00:15:32.340 how could

00:15:32.620 you possibly

00:15:33.300 model this

00:15:34.140 I mean

00:15:34.540 seriously

00:15:35.060 if you

00:15:36.500 could get

00:15:36.920 this close

00:15:37.800 with

00:15:39.540 mitigation

00:15:40.100 and say

00:15:40.460 look

00:15:40.760 we said

00:15:41.620 it'd be

00:15:41.880 100,000

00:15:42.580 but you

00:15:42.940 came out

00:15:43.340 at 60,000

00:15:44.220 is that

00:15:45.320 is that

00:15:45.800 a mistake

00:15:46.480 no

00:15:48.460 if you've

00:15:49.280 done

00:15:49.480 modeling

00:15:49.880 for a

00:15:50.320 living

00:15:50.560 as I

00:15:51.760 have

00:15:52.140 and by

00:15:53.220 the way

00:15:53.460 ask anybody

00:15:54.080 else who

00:15:54.580 has ever

00:15:55.260 done

00:15:55.460 modeling

00:15:55.860 for a

00:15:56.300 living

00:15:56.520 if this

00:15:57.860 were the

00:15:58.180 outcome

00:15:58.580 you had

00:15:59.600 predicted

00:15:59.960 100 at

00:16:00.620 the low

00:16:01.000 end

00:16:01.280 but we

00:16:02.240 did

00:16:02.500 good

00:16:03.340 mitigation

00:16:03.860 and it

00:16:04.240 came in

00:16:04.560 at 60

00:16:05.040 would you

00:16:06.040 tell your

00:16:06.440 boss

00:16:06.860 that you

00:16:07.920 missed it

00:16:08.420 and you

00:16:08.580 were completely

00:16:09.100 wrong

00:16:09.560 and you

00:16:09.820 know I

00:16:10.760 quit

00:16:11.080 because it's

00:16:11.700 so embarrassing

00:16:12.300 I was so

00:16:13.340 far off

00:16:13.960 no

00:16:15.480 you would

00:16:16.600 go in and

00:16:17.100 tell your

00:16:17.420 boss you

00:16:17.900 needed a

00:16:18.340 raise

00:16:18.780 because out

00:16:20.300 of all

00:16:20.600 these

00:16:20.820 possibilities

00:16:21.480 you said

00:16:22.200 with

00:16:22.540 mitigation

00:16:23.060 we're

00:16:23.980 going to

00:16:24.140 be about

00:16:24.520 here

00:16:24.860 and you

00:16:25.680 got pretty

00:16:26.100 darn

00:16:26.360 close

00:16:26.940 you got

00:16:28.720 pretty

00:16:28.960 close

00:16:29.460 I call

00:16:30.600 that a

00:16:30.960 home run

00:16:31.480 that

00:16:32.880 is as

00:16:34.360 good as

00:16:34.860 a model

00:16:35.260 can be

00:16:35.840 here's

00:16:37.820 here's

00:16:38.780 the

00:16:39.040 the kill

00:16:40.940 shot

00:16:41.300 on my

00:16:41.720 point

00:16:42.160 nobody

00:16:45.460 in the

00:16:45.840 world

00:16:46.160 can predict

00:16:47.560 the future

00:16:48.200 with a

00:16:49.480 complicated

00:16:49.940 model

00:16:50.520 with lots

00:16:51.040 of variables

00:16:51.640 during the

00:16:53.240 fog of war

00:16:54.060 now you

00:16:55.640 can sometimes

00:16:56.480 predict how

00:16:57.140 things will

00:16:57.620 go if

00:16:58.600 the thing

00:16:58.980 that's going

00:16:59.380 to happen

00:16:59.740 is very

00:17:00.560 very similar

00:17:01.320 to a

00:17:01.740 thing that

00:17:02.040 happened

00:17:02.320 before

00:17:02.800 and the

00:17:03.820 thing that

00:17:04.140 happened

00:17:04.400 before

00:17:04.860 and before

00:17:05.420 so I've

00:17:06.880 used the

00:17:07.200 example

00:17:07.480 let's say

00:17:07.860 you're a

00:17:08.480 home builder

00:17:09.780 and you

00:17:11.160 build one

00:17:11.680 home and you

00:17:12.200 say it

00:17:12.740 cost me this

00:17:13.340 much per

00:17:13.740 square foot

00:17:14.380 then you

00:17:15.120 build a

00:17:15.440 second one

00:17:15.960 it's a

00:17:16.260 different

00:17:16.460 home

00:17:16.840 but the

00:17:18.180 square footage

00:17:18.800 comes out

00:17:19.220 about the

00:17:19.560 same cost

00:17:20.200 and then you

00:17:21.120 build the

00:17:21.460 third one

00:17:22.040 do you

00:17:23.140 think you

00:17:23.500 could make

00:17:23.880 a good

00:17:24.220 estimate

00:17:24.620 of your

00:17:25.400 square footage

00:17:26.100 cost for

00:17:26.840 the third

00:17:27.320 one

00:17:27.620 the answer

00:17:28.400 is probably

00:17:28.960 yeah you'd

00:17:30.020 have comparable

00:17:31.500 things you

00:17:32.200 could look at

00:17:32.800 so yeah

00:17:33.620 it's a lot

00:17:34.520 like those

00:17:35.000 other ones

00:17:35.500 so I'll use

00:17:35.960 the same

00:17:36.380 process

00:17:37.020 yeah you

00:17:37.420 can get

00:17:37.720 pretty close

00:17:38.260 but if you're

00:17:40.200 in the fog

00:17:40.780 of war

00:17:41.260 let's say

00:17:42.900 the first

00:17:43.600 week of

00:17:44.300 the Iraq

00:17:44.820 war

00:17:45.220 in the

00:17:46.400 first week

00:17:47.000 of the

00:17:47.300 Iraq

00:17:47.640 war

00:17:48.000 were there

00:17:49.500 any

00:17:49.740 modelers

00:17:50.380 who could

00:17:50.700 put in

00:17:51.060 their

00:17:51.200 variables

00:17:51.700 and tell

00:17:52.420 you how

00:17:52.800 it was

00:17:53.120 all going

00:17:53.420 to come

00:17:53.680 out

00:17:53.900 of course

00:17:55.040 not

00:17:55.420 of course

00:17:56.500 not

00:17:56.840 in the

00:17:57.700 fog of 0.95

00:17:58.140 war

00:17:58.320 you can't

00:17:58.780 make any

00:17:59.140 kind of

00:17:59.440 a model

00:18:00.080 that predicts

00:18:00.980 the future

00:18:01.500 that's not

00:18:02.600 a thing

00:18:03.120 nobody's ever

00:18:04.560 been able to

00:18:05.100 do that

00:18:05.500 there's no

00:18:05.960 model that

00:18:06.420 can do

00:18:06.900 that

00:18:07.220 there's no

00:18:08.140 model that

00:18:08.600 will ever

00:18:08.940 be able to

00:18:09.420 do that

00:18:09.740 it's not

00:18:10.300 logically

00:18:10.940 possible

00:18:11.580 and if

00:18:13.280 you're still

00:18:13.740 wondering if

00:18:14.440 there are some

00:18:14.940 people who

00:18:15.400 can make

00:18:15.740 models and

00:18:16.920 predict the

00:18:17.520 future and

00:18:18.160 the chaos

00:18:18.720 you think

00:18:19.700 those people

00:18:20.200 exist

00:18:20.660 here's how

00:18:21.580 you could

00:18:21.860 spot them

00:18:22.420 if they

00:18:22.740 exist

00:18:23.180 they would

00:18:24.400 be living

00:18:24.860 on their

00:18:25.400 trillion dollar

00:18:26.460 yachts

00:18:27.880 if anybody

00:18:29.380 could build

00:18:29.900 a model

00:18:30.380 to accurately

00:18:32.680 or even

00:18:33.260 more accurate

00:18:34.080 than randomness

00:18:35.040 predict the

00:18:36.220 future

00:18:36.600 based on the

00:18:38.080 chaos of the

00:18:39.180 fog of war

00:18:39.880 of any

00:18:40.240 situation

00:18:40.780 whether it's

00:18:41.300 this one

00:18:41.640 or some

00:18:41.940 other

00:18:42.200 if anybody

00:18:43.340 could do

00:18:43.800 that

00:18:44.120 they would

00:18:45.140 be a

00:18:45.420 trillionaire

00:18:45.980 because it

00:18:47.300 isn't

00:18:47.600 something

00:18:47.900 that can

00:18:48.320 be done

00:18:48.740 so

00:18:51.140 if you

00:18:52.140 say

00:18:52.400 Scott

00:18:52.900 your

00:18:54.000 prediction

00:18:54.480 model

00:18:54.840 was

00:18:55.080 wrong

00:18:55.540 because it

00:18:56.700 was not

00:18:57.180 accurate

00:18:57.800 then I

00:18:59.000 say to

00:18:59.320 you

00:18:59.640 hey you

00:19:00.680 apparently

00:19:01.660 you don't

00:19:02.080 know what

00:19:02.280 a prediction

00:19:02.680 model is

00:19:03.320 because you

00:19:04.280 thought it

00:19:04.660 was for

00:19:05.000 predicting

00:19:05.440 it isn't

00:19:07.140 the reason

00:19:08.720 it's not

00:19:09.400 designed to

00:19:10.060 predict

00:19:10.420 is because

00:19:11.780 it can't

00:19:12.420 it's not

00:19:13.620 a thing

00:19:14.060 it's just

00:19:15.300 not a

00:19:15.680 thing

00:19:15.960 you can't

00:19:17.100 do what's

00:19:17.520 not a

00:19:17.820 thing

00:19:18.140 by analogy

00:19:19.460 because I

00:19:20.220 know you

00:19:20.440 like analogies

00:19:21.200 I do this

00:19:21.780 sometimes just

00:19:22.400 to annoy

00:19:22.800 if you

00:19:24.880 had a

00:19:25.120 bicycle

00:19:25.560 and your

00:19:27.180 bicycle

00:19:27.640 could not

00:19:28.360 fly

00:19:29.020 it could

00:19:29.740 only

00:19:30.040 pedal on

00:19:31.400 the ground

00:19:31.880 would you

00:19:33.020 say that

00:19:33.600 bicycle is

00:19:34.860 broken

00:19:35.640 that bicycle

00:19:37.400 is a piece

00:19:38.080 of garbage

00:19:38.760 because it

00:19:39.740 can't fly

00:19:40.340 no you

00:19:41.440 would not

00:19:41.680 you would

00:19:41.960 say

00:19:42.220 well that

00:19:42.920 doesn't

00:19:43.180 make sense

00:19:43.720 you're not

00:19:44.120 evaluating it

00:19:44.900 as an

00:19:45.220 airplane

00:19:45.720 a bicycle

00:19:47.140 is intended

00:19:47.800 to pedal

00:19:48.360 on a road

00:19:48.920 so let's

00:19:49.400 evaluate it

00:19:50.180 for pedaling

00:19:51.140 on a road

00:19:51.660 oh okay

00:19:52.120 it looks

00:19:52.460 pretty good

00:19:52.960 if you look

00:19:53.380 at it

00:19:53.580 that way

00:19:54.020 so if

00:19:55.540 you're

00:19:55.700 looking at

00:19:56.100 these

00:19:56.440 models

00:19:57.780 the virus

00:19:59.340 models

00:19:59.680 and you

00:19:59.980 say to

00:20:00.240 yourself

00:20:00.560 hey

00:20:01.340 these

00:20:02.320 models

00:20:02.740 are all

00:20:03.620 broken

00:20:03.980 and

00:20:04.440 defective

00:20:05.760 because they

00:20:06.840 did not

00:20:07.300 predict the

00:20:07.940 future

00:20:08.260 accurately

00:20:08.780 then you

00:20:10.100 don't

00:20:10.320 understand

00:20:10.720 what a

00:20:11.020 model

00:20:11.220 is

00:20:11.580 because

00:20:12.540 they're

00:20:12.700 not

00:20:12.900 designed

00:20:13.500 to predict

00:20:14.240 the future

00:20:14.920 they can't

00:20:16.640 it's not

00:20:18.020 a thing

00:20:18.460 nobody would

00:20:20.040 try to

00:20:20.660 design a

00:20:21.340 model

00:20:21.620 to predict

00:20:22.760 the future

00:20:23.380 because you

00:20:24.560 know in

00:20:24.840 advance

00:20:25.260 it's not

00:20:25.700 a thing

00:20:26.120 it's not

00:20:27.200 a thing

00:20:27.660 so you're

00:20:29.020 wondering

00:20:29.660 well why is

00:20:30.560 everybody acting

00:20:31.200 like it is

00:20:31.780 a thing

00:20:32.180 I mean

00:20:33.320 literally

00:20:33.740 everybody

00:20:34.240 is acting

00:20:35.040 like the

00:20:36.200 model should

00:20:36.940 have told us

00:20:37.480 what the

00:20:37.800 future

00:20:38.080 looks like

00:20:38.720 and they

00:20:39.900 didn't

00:20:40.760 so

00:20:41.680 something's

00:20:42.800 wrong

00:20:43.020 right

00:20:43.280 no

00:20:44.640 models

00:20:45.560 are not

00:20:45.980 intended

00:20:46.500 to predict

00:20:47.360 the future

00:20:47.960 here's what

00:20:48.900 they're for

00:20:49.380 persuasion

00:20:51.240 and

00:20:52.920 rough sizing

00:20:54.600 of a

00:20:55.000 problem

00:20:55.420 did the

00:20:57.300 models

00:20:57.700 roughly

00:20:58.400 size

00:20:59.160 the

00:20:59.400 problem

00:20:59.960 and

00:21:01.260 here

00:21:01.740 the size

00:21:02.740 can be

00:21:03.080 very

00:21:03.400 approximate

00:21:04.180 because all

00:21:05.300 you're trying

00:21:05.660 to do is

00:21:06.140 persuade people

00:21:07.000 to act

00:21:07.440 differently

00:21:07.860 to get

00:21:08.800 that number

00:21:09.240 lower

00:21:09.620 so did

00:21:10.840 it size

00:21:11.440 the problem

00:21:12.140 as a

00:21:13.420 big old

00:21:13.860 problem

00:21:14.200 that you

00:21:14.540 should treat

00:21:15.020 as a

00:21:15.380 special

00:21:15.680 problem

00:21:16.140 I'd say

00:21:17.580 yes

00:21:17.940 the New York

00:21:19.140 City numbers

00:21:19.780 seem to

00:21:20.260 indicate

00:21:20.740 that the

00:21:22.500 degree of

00:21:23.400 panic about

00:21:24.140 this was

00:21:24.680 probably well

00:21:25.440 warranted

00:21:26.400 because even

00:21:27.140 with mitigation

00:21:28.060 they lost

00:21:29.900 7,000

00:21:30.560 people

00:21:30.980 and if you

00:21:32.480 extended that

00:21:33.120 to the whole

00:21:33.520 country

00:21:33.940 and imagined

00:21:34.720 no mitigation

00:21:35.680 it could be

00:21:37.420 half a

00:21:37.760 million people

00:21:38.360 just based

00:21:38.980 on what

00:21:39.300 we do

00:21:39.640 know

00:21:39.960 so

00:21:42.400 was it

00:21:43.200 appropriate

00:21:43.580 to use

00:21:44.140 prediction

00:21:44.560 models

00:21:44.960 to persuade

00:21:45.820 us to

00:21:46.240 act

00:21:46.460 differently

00:21:46.840 and also

00:21:48.820 sized it

00:21:49.640 as a

00:21:50.020 big old

00:21:50.340 problem

00:21:50.740 that we

00:21:51.220 don't know

00:21:51.500 if it's

00:21:51.760 a million

00:21:52.140 or a

00:21:52.500 hundred

00:21:52.640 thousand

00:21:53.040 but let

00:21:53.960 me tell

00:21:54.240 you

00:21:54.400 it's a

00:21:55.100 big old

00:21:55.440 problem

00:21:55.820 if you

00:21:56.200 don't do

00:21:56.500 anything

00:21:56.760 about it

00:21:57.240 I would

00:21:59.020 say the

00:21:59.420 models

00:21:59.840 not only

00:22:00.620 were

00:22:01.080 useful

00:22:01.940 and good

00:22:02.660 but some

00:22:03.840 of the

00:22:04.080 best

00:22:04.360 of all

00:22:04.760 time

00:22:05.120 because

00:22:06.800 missing

00:22:07.400 the bottom

00:22:07.920 number

00:22:08.380 by that

00:22:09.740 little

00:22:10.200 when you

00:22:11.780 did

00:22:12.020 mitigation

00:22:12.560 is pretty

00:22:13.980 darn good

00:22:14.560 and if

00:22:16.300 it did

00:22:16.600 what it

00:22:16.900 was supposed

00:22:17.280 to do

00:22:17.620 which is

00:22:18.040 persuade us

00:22:18.780 to act

00:22:19.060 differently

00:22:19.460 did it

00:22:20.120 do that

00:22:20.500 yeah

00:22:20.920 yeah

00:22:22.020 those

00:22:22.320 models

00:22:22.660 persuaded

00:22:23.200 me

00:22:23.580 I'll bet

00:22:24.300 it persuaded

00:22:24.800 most of

00:22:25.300 you too

00:22:25.700 and did

00:22:26.900 it size

00:22:27.600 the general

00:22:28.700 size

00:22:29.180 I think

00:22:29.580 yes

00:22:29.940 now

00:22:30.780 your

00:22:31.420 critics

00:22:32.820 will say

00:22:33.320 no

00:22:33.680 that that's

00:22:34.840 exactly

00:22:35.280 the problem

00:22:35.900 it did

00:22:36.740 not size

00:22:37.520 the problem

00:22:38.060 correctly

00:22:38.580 it missed

00:22:39.100 the size

00:22:39.620 of the

00:22:39.820 problem

00:22:40.120 by a

00:22:40.500 mile

00:22:40.800 did it

00:22:42.020 did it

00:22:43.500 because that

00:22:45.160 doesn't look

00:22:45.600 like a mile

00:22:46.180 to me

00:22:46.680 that looks

00:22:47.980 like of all

00:22:48.560 the possibilities

00:22:49.440 and of course

00:22:50.180 that's

00:22:50.480 mitigation

00:22:51.000 no mitigation

00:22:51.820 versus mitigation

00:22:52.560 but if you

00:22:53.540 could come

00:22:53.960 that close

00:22:54.700 with this

00:22:56.200 level of

00:22:56.840 uncertainty

00:22:57.300 I'm pretty

00:22:59.140 impressed

00:22:59.720 I'm totally

00:23:01.540 impressed

00:23:01.960 this would

00:23:02.920 be a

00:23:03.200 world

00:23:03.500 class

00:23:04.020 if it

00:23:05.140 turns out

00:23:05.520 that 60 0.62

00:23:06.020 is a

00:23:06.340 real

00:23:06.480 number

00:23:06.740 I

00:23:06.920 actually

00:23:07.160 think

00:23:07.400 it's

00:23:07.560 going

00:23:07.700 to be

00:23:07.840 lower

00:23:08.160 if it

00:23:08.880 goes

00:23:09.040 down

00:23:09.220 to 30

00:23:09.760 then I'm

00:23:10.400 going to

00:23:10.600 join the

00:23:11.020 chorus

00:23:11.320 of people

00:23:11.700 saying

00:23:12.060 these models

00:23:13.420 may be

00:23:13.780 not as

00:23:14.140 helpful

00:23:14.360 as they

00:23:14.700 could have

00:23:14.920 been

00:23:15.100 but at

00:23:15.920 60

00:23:16.320 it's

00:23:17.480 sort of

00:23:17.820 a rounding

00:23:18.200 error

00:23:18.540 somebody

00:23:22.440 says

00:23:22.820 wrong

00:23:23.280 obviously

00:23:24.500 you're

00:23:24.780 new

00:23:24.920 here

00:23:25.180 what

00:23:26.780 happens

00:23:27.160 when people

00:23:27.640 just use

00:23:28.160 the one

00:23:28.560 word

00:23:28.960 wrong

00:23:30.500 that's

00:23:33.020 what

00:23:33.160 happens

00:23:33.540 that's

00:23:35.180 one way

00:23:35.520 to learn

00:23:35.920 learning

00:23:36.320 it the

00:23:36.580 hard

00:23:36.760 way

00:23:37.320 somebody

00:23:39.260 says

00:23:39.600 there's

00:23:39.840 no

00:23:40.040 proof

00:23:40.460 that

00:23:40.920 any

00:23:41.120 lives

00:23:41.480 were

00:23:41.680 saved

00:23:42.100 alright

00:23:43.060 so

00:23:43.520 so

00:23:44.440 let's

00:23:46.500 take

00:23:46.700 that

00:23:46.900 point

00:23:47.160 I

00:23:47.400 think

00:23:47.700 that

00:23:47.900 point

00:23:48.260 agrees

00:23:49.140 with a

00:23:49.480 lot

00:23:49.600 of

00:23:49.700 people

00:23:49.940 because

00:23:50.760 the

00:23:50.980 point

00:23:51.200 is

00:23:51.560 can

00:23:52.320 you

00:23:52.480 demonstrate

00:23:53.020 that

00:23:55.180 what

00:23:55.560 we

00:23:55.800 did

00:23:56.040 actually

00:23:56.560 saved

00:23:56.980 lives

00:23:57.360 like

00:23:57.620 how

00:23:57.800 would

00:23:57.920 you

00:23:58.040 know

00:23:58.340 well

00:23:59.180 here's

00:23:59.440 what

00:23:59.600 I

00:23:59.720 would

00:23:59.840 look

00:24:00.000 to

00:24:00.200 I

00:24:01.220 would

00:24:01.380 look

00:24:01.520 to

00:24:01.700 prior

00:24:02.120 every

00:24:03.460 year

00:24:04.000 before

00:24:04.540 in

00:24:04.920 New

00:24:05.060 York

00:24:05.240 City

00:24:05.560 can

00:24:06.920 you

00:24:07.080 list

00:24:07.400 for

00:24:07.620 me

00:24:07.780 the

00:24:07.980 number

00:24:08.260 of

00:24:08.420 years

00:24:08.800 that

00:24:09.140 they

00:24:09.280 had

00:24:09.500 to

00:24:09.760 do

00:24:10.320 mass

00:24:11.040 outdoor

00:24:12.140 burials

00:24:12.840 because

00:24:13.680 they had

00:24:14.060 too many

00:24:14.460 corpses

00:24:14.940 can

00:24:16.340 somebody

00:24:16.720 a

00:24:16.960 historian

00:24:17.340 tell me

00:24:18.140 when

00:24:18.320 was the

00:24:18.640 last

00:24:18.920 time

00:24:19.220 we

00:24:19.400 had

00:24:19.540 so

00:24:19.740 many

00:24:19.980 corpses

00:24:20.560 in

00:24:20.920 New

00:24:21.040 York

00:24:21.220 City

00:24:21.500 that

00:24:22.240 they

00:24:22.380 had

00:24:22.580 to

00:24:22.840 use

00:24:23.680 bulldozers

00:24:24.560 to make

00:24:25.020 a trench

00:24:25.640 to

00:24:26.340 temporarily

00:24:26.960 bury

00:24:27.480 them

00:24:27.700 in

00:24:27.820 the

00:24:27.960 park

00:24:28.320 if

00:24:29.760 that's

00:24:30.060 never

00:24:30.340 happened

00:24:30.760 before

00:24:31.220 would

00:24:32.560 you

00:24:32.700 agree

00:24:32.980 with

00:24:33.200 me

00:24:33.420 something

00:24:33.880 different

00:24:34.480 is

00:24:34.680 happening

00:24:34.980 in

00:24:35.220 New

00:24:35.360 York

00:24:35.640 because

00:24:36.880 if you

00:24:37.160 don't

00:24:37.340 get

00:24:37.540 that

00:24:37.820 part

00:24:38.180 nothing

00:24:39.080 else

00:24:39.400 makes

00:24:39.640 sense

00:24:40.060 that in

00:24:41.480 New

00:24:41.620 York

00:24:41.800 City

00:24:42.120 because

00:24:43.300 they were

00:24:44.100 a little

00:24:44.340 late on

00:24:44.800 the

00:24:44.920 mitigation

00:24:45.380 that

00:24:47.000 they're

00:24:47.740 burying

00:24:48.820 people in

00:24:49.340 mass graves

00:24:50.300 that

00:24:51.240 doesn't

00:24:51.580 look like

00:24:52.120 there's

00:24:52.660 a big

00:24:52.900 problem

00:24:53.300 so

00:24:54.820 anybody

00:24:56.220 who says

00:24:56.800 that the

00:24:57.300 models

00:24:57.920 are

00:24:59.100 out of

00:25:00.120 whack 0.79

00:25:00.460 with

00:25:00.800 what

00:25:01.000 we're

00:25:01.180 actually

00:25:01.500 observing

00:25:02.000 that's

00:25:03.380 not

00:25:03.540 what

00:25:03.680 I

00:25:03.860 see

00:25:04.100 to

00:25:05.420 me

00:25:05.600 I

00:25:05.780 see

00:25:05.980 the

00:25:06.180 model

00:25:06.880 said

00:25:07.260 there's

00:25:07.540 a

00:25:07.760 really

00:25:08.140 big

00:25:08.420 problem

00:25:08.880 and

00:25:10.400 we

00:25:10.860 want

00:25:11.100 to

00:25:11.200 persuade

00:25:11.580 you

00:25:11.780 to

00:25:11.880 act

00:25:12.040 differently

00:25:12.460 if

00:25:13.760 you're

00:25:14.000 burying

00:25:14.340 people

00:25:14.660 in

00:25:14.840 mass

00:25:15.140 graves

00:25:15.620 in

00:25:16.580 just

00:25:16.820 the

00:25:17.120 first

00:25:17.740 state

00:25:18.080 that

00:25:18.260 was

00:25:18.400 a

00:25:18.540 little

00:25:18.660 late

00:25:19.060 on

00:25:19.400 the

00:25:19.580 mitigation

00:25:20.100 I

00:25:21.260 feel

00:25:21.580 like

00:25:21.800 they

00:25:21.980 were

00:25:22.160 right

00:25:22.540 that

00:25:23.060 was

00:25:23.240 a

00:25:23.440 big

00:25:23.660 potential

00:25:24.400 problem

00:25:24.920 that

00:25:25.660 we

00:25:25.820 may

00:25:26.020 have

00:25:26.160 done

00:25:26.480 heroic

00:25:27.440 job

00:25:28.060 at

00:25:28.420 decreasing

00:25:29.900 and

00:25:30.800 I

00:25:30.940 think

00:25:31.120 you

00:25:31.420 know

00:25:31.580 I've

00:25:31.900 always

00:25:32.060 been

00:25:32.200 on

00:25:32.360 the

00:25:32.480 side

00:25:32.700 that

00:25:32.880 says

00:25:33.120 that

00:25:33.320 human

00:25:33.680 ingenuity

00:25:34.360 once

00:25:35.300 we're

00:25:35.520 all

00:25:35.720 focused

00:25:36.100 on

00:25:36.280 the

00:25:36.420 same

00:25:36.600 problem

00:25:37.020 as

00:25:37.260 we

00:25:37.400 are

00:25:37.640 it's

00:25:38.600 hard

00:25:38.760 to

00:25:38.940 predict

00:25:39.320 and

00:25:40.400 it's

00:25:40.540 also

00:25:40.740 one

00:25:41.040 reason

00:25:41.300 that

00:25:41.460 prediction

00:25:41.780 models

00:25:42.160 are

00:25:42.440 useless

00:25:43.020 because

00:25:43.960 the

00:25:44.440 human

00:25:44.740 ingenuity

00:25:45.280 can't

00:25:45.780 be

00:25:45.900 predicted

00:25:46.280 you

00:25:47.180 just

00:25:47.420 know

00:25:47.680 it's

00:25:47.900 going

00:25:48.020 to

00:25:48.080 be

00:25:48.400 probably

00:25:49.120 surprisingly

00:25:49.820 good

00:25:50.240 but

00:25:50.460 you

00:25:50.740 don't

00:25:50.900 know

00:25:51.080 how

00:25:51.380 and

00:25:53.900 somebody

00:25:54.220 says

00:25:54.520 still

00:25:54.780 hasn't

00:25:55.120 happened

00:25:55.600 what

00:25:57.080 hasn't

00:25:57.460 happened

00:25:57.800 they're

00:25:58.160 burying

00:25:58.440 people

00:25:58.800 in the

00:25:59.100 park

00:25:59.320 right

00:25:59.580 now

00:26:00.000 they

00:26:01.580 have

00:26:01.760 pictures

00:26:02.080 of

00:26:02.320 it

00:26:02.680 all

00:26:03.600 right

00:26:03.980 somebody

00:26:05.740 said

00:26:05.960 I

00:26:06.100 saw

00:26:06.280 a

00:26:06.420 trench

00:26:06.740 not

00:26:07.060 sure

00:26:07.320 they're

00:26:07.540 really

00:26:07.740 going

00:26:07.940 to

00:26:08.100 bury

00:26:08.880 bodies

00:26:09.340 there

00:26:09.540 I

00:26:10.420 saw

00:26:10.740 the

00:26:11.000 bodies

00:26:11.340 in

00:26:11.560 the

00:26:11.700 trench

00:26:12.080 in

00:26:12.480 containers

00:26:13.880 but

00:26:15.220 did

00:26:15.660 I

00:26:15.840 see

00:26:16.060 a

00:26:17.120 fake

00:26:17.440 picture

00:26:17.780 of

00:26:17.940 an

00:26:18.080 Italian

00:26:18.420 hospital

00:26:18.860 or

00:26:19.100 something

00:26:19.360 but

00:26:20.040 this

00:26:20.220 morning

00:26:20.520 I

00:26:20.700 did

00:26:20.840 see

00:26:21.080 an

00:26:21.760 aerial

00:26:22.180 picture

00:26:22.520 of

00:26:22.800 the

00:26:22.940 trench

00:26:23.340 with

00:26:24.540 what

00:26:24.720 looked

00:26:24.960 to

00:26:25.060 be

00:26:25.380 temporary

00:26:26.240 caskets

00:26:26.840 in

00:26:26.980 it

00:26:27.160 you

00:26:27.880 know

00:26:28.040 sort

00:26:28.400 of

00:26:28.520 pine

00:26:28.720 boxes

00:26:29.120 sort

00:26:29.520 of

00:26:30.000 somebody

00:26:34.300 says

00:26:34.620 that

00:26:34.780 is

00:26:34.900 not

00:26:35.080 fully

00:26:35.320 correct

00:26:35.720 that

00:26:36.380 is

00:26:36.520 where

00:26:36.720 they

00:26:36.880 have

00:26:37.000 done

00:26:37.160 the

00:26:37.340 unclaimed

00:26:37.880 body

00:26:38.400 burials

00:26:38.960 for

00:26:39.520 years

00:26:39.980 well

00:26:41.360 I

00:26:41.700 don't

00:26:41.860 think

00:26:42.040 we're

00:26:42.180 talking

00:26:42.460 about

00:26:42.760 unclaimed

00:26:43.360 bodies

00:26:44.020 if that

00:26:45.660 were the

00:26:45.940 case

00:26:46.260 sure

00:26:46.660 Scott

00:26:50.380 Scott

00:26:50.700 Scott

00:26:51.080 big

00:26:51.540 cities

00:26:51.860 have

00:26:52.140 mass

00:26:52.480 graves

00:26:52.880 regularly

00:26:53.400 every

00:26:54.260 morgue

00:26:54.660 is

00:26:54.840 full

00:26:55.100 of

00:26:55.240 unclaimed

00:26:55.700 bodies

00:26:56.180 would

00:26:57.160 your

00:26:57.340 point

00:26:57.580 being

00:26:57.860 that

00:26:58.040 New York

00:26:58.340 City

00:26:58.600 is

00:26:58.860 not

00:26:59.140 experiencing

00:26:59.780 an

00:27:00.360 unusual

00:27:00.840 number

00:27:01.560 of

00:27:01.760 deaths

00:27:02.100 because

00:27:03.540 that's

00:27:03.820 something

00:27:04.080 that you

00:27:04.500 and I

00:27:04.740 could just

00:27:05.080 check

00:27:05.440 right

00:27:05.880 do you

00:27:07.300 think

00:27:07.500 that the

00:27:08.180 the mayor

00:27:09.360 of New York

00:27:09.740 City

00:27:10.000 and the

00:27:10.340 governor

00:27:10.640 of New York

00:27:11.320 don't know

00:27:12.820 but you

00:27:14.400 do

00:27:14.740 but you

00:27:16.260 know it

00:27:16.680 but the

00:27:17.040 governor

00:27:17.400 of the

00:27:18.080 state

00:27:18.360 and the

00:27:18.900 mayor

00:27:19.140 of New York

00:27:19.500 City

00:27:19.700 they don't

00:27:20.580 know

00:27:20.920 that the

00:27:21.580 number

00:27:21.860 of deaths

00:27:22.400 is just

00:27:23.380 the normal

00:27:23.840 number

00:27:24.200 is

00:27:25.360 is that

00:27:25.800 your point

00:27:26.180 of view

00:27:26.460 that the

00:27:27.440 mayor

00:27:27.640 hasn't

00:27:28.000 noticed

00:27:28.380 and he

00:27:30.160 just

00:27:30.400 thinks

00:27:30.640 there's

00:27:30.860 a lot

00:27:31.100 of

00:27:31.200 deaths

00:27:31.440 but he

00:27:32.320 just

00:27:32.600 is

00:27:32.900 counting

00:27:33.200 it

00:27:33.380 wrong

00:27:33.600 really

00:27:34.560 really

00:27:36.540 is that

00:27:37.360 what you

00:27:37.560 think

00:27:37.860 somebody

00:27:39.360 says

00:27:39.660 it's a

00:27:39.960 fake

00:27:40.140 picture

00:27:40.460 it could

00:27:40.700 be a

00:27:40.940 fake

00:27:41.080 picture

00:27:41.400 so

00:27:44.560 let me

00:27:46.160 say this

00:27:46.600 so there

00:27:47.000 some people

00:27:47.560 are doubting

00:27:48.200 the number

00:27:49.320 of deaths

00:27:49.840 those of

00:27:50.500 you who

00:27:50.740 are doubting

00:27:51.100 the number

00:27:51.500 of deaths

00:27:51.840 do you

00:27:52.200 believe

00:27:52.500 that there

00:27:52.860 are 7000

00:27:53.740 deaths

00:27:54.220 that although

00:27:56.240 they had

00:27:56.720 comorbidities

00:27:57.720 in many

00:27:58.200 cases

00:27:58.580 they probably

00:27:59.560 wouldn't have

00:28:00.020 been dying

00:28:00.520 this week

00:28:01.320 or these

00:28:02.540 weeks

00:28:02.920 just because

00:28:04.140 they had

00:28:04.480 diabetes

00:28:05.040 not many

00:28:06.380 of them

00:28:06.600 were going

00:28:06.860 to die

00:28:07.100 this week

00:28:07.680 so

00:28:09.780 let's put

00:28:11.500 it on the

00:28:11.860 facts

00:28:12.220 let's say

00:28:13.640 that you

00:28:14.280 and I

00:28:14.580 don't have

00:28:15.040 to decide

00:28:16.580 right now

00:28:17.160 whether New

00:28:17.880 York City

00:28:18.300 is experiencing

00:28:19.320 an unusual

00:28:20.160 number of

00:28:20.780 deaths

00:28:21.100 deaths

00:28:21.140 let's

00:28:22.900 just

00:28:23.140 let's

00:28:23.780 just

00:28:23.960 look it

00:28:24.300 up

00:28:24.680 look it

00:28:27.100 up

00:28:27.360 if it

00:28:28.120 turns out

00:28:28.700 if it

00:28:30.220 turns out

00:28:30.760 that New

00:28:31.340 York City

00:28:31.860 is experiencing

00:28:33.260 a normal

00:28:34.680 amount of

00:28:35.220 deaths

00:28:35.580 for this

00:28:36.080 period

00:28:36.480 well then

00:28:37.660 I'd say

00:28:38.040 you're probably

00:28:38.600 quite right

00:28:39.840 you're quite

00:28:41.280 right

00:28:41.640 but if it

00:28:42.940 turns out

00:28:43.320 that they're

00:28:43.700 experiencing

00:28:44.240 an unusual

00:28:44.960 number of

00:28:45.580 deaths

00:28:45.880 even

00:28:46.820 after

00:28:47.560 we're not

00:28:49.060 getting any

00:28:49.600 deaths

00:28:50.000 from traffic

00:28:51.240 accidents

00:28:51.880 and even

00:28:53.080 after all

00:28:53.740 the normal

00:28:54.340 sporting

00:28:55.340 accidents

00:28:55.900 and things

00:28:56.380 that normally

00:28:56.900 would fill

00:28:57.440 your hospital

00:28:57.980 even after

00:28:58.960 you take

00:28:59.400 them out

00:29:00.000 if we

00:29:01.640 still have

00:29:02.040 to bury

00:29:02.540 people in

00:29:03.060 mass graves

00:29:03.700 and refrigerated

00:29:04.580 trucks

00:29:04.980 in New York

00:29:05.860 City

00:29:06.160 that's telling

00:29:07.120 us something

00:29:07.620 right

00:29:07.940 right

00:29:09.080 okay

00:29:09.840 so

00:29:15.300 we're also

00:29:17.680 looking at

00:29:18.140 the differences

00:29:18.640 between

00:29:20.540 states

00:29:21.200 and there

00:29:22.580 are so

00:29:22.800 many

00:29:22.980 variables

00:29:23.480 that seem

00:29:23.860 to go

00:29:24.180 into

00:29:24.460 determining

00:29:25.120 whether

00:29:25.460 there's a

00:29:25.840 high death

00:29:26.180 rate

00:29:26.380 or not

00:29:26.720 or high

00:29:27.140 infection

00:29:27.460 rate

00:29:27.760 but there

00:29:28.840 are a few

00:29:29.160 that I

00:29:29.540 haven't seen

00:29:29.980 talked about

00:29:30.660 as much

00:29:31.620 and so

00:29:32.040 let me

00:29:32.400 mention

00:29:32.760 them

00:29:33.080 now of

00:29:34.760 course

00:29:35.000 California

00:29:35.600 has probably

00:29:36.340 lower

00:29:36.700 density

00:29:37.240 so that

00:29:39.280 might make

00:29:39.680 a difference

00:29:40.080 with New

00:29:40.860 York City

00:29:41.360 we're a

00:29:42.840 very

00:29:43.060 international

00:29:43.760 state

00:29:44.860 but probably

00:29:45.680 nothing is

00:29:46.340 as international

00:29:47.380 as New

00:29:47.900 York City

00:29:48.500 I would

00:29:49.000 guess

00:29:49.320 so

00:29:50.440 as

00:29:51.420 connected to

00:29:53.480 the rest

00:29:53.740 of the world

00:29:54.100 as California

00:29:54.740 is

00:29:55.080 probably

00:29:55.380 there's

00:29:55.640 nothing

00:29:55.900 like New

00:29:56.300 York City

00:29:56.640 so that

00:29:57.040 would be

00:29:57.280 one

00:29:57.460 difference

00:29:57.840 and of

00:29:59.140 course

00:29:59.320 fewer

00:29:59.660 elevators

00:30:00.260 and people

00:30:01.040 are

00:30:01.300 people are

00:30:02.280 commuting

00:30:02.640 in cars

00:30:03.260 by themselves

00:30:03.940 and stuff

00:30:04.420 so there's

00:30:04.700 a lot of

00:30:04.920 difference

00:30:05.220 in California

00:30:06.400 but somebody

00:30:06.920 said

00:30:07.300 oh

00:30:08.520 then

00:30:08.860 but I

00:30:09.180 also wanted

00:30:09.560 to add

00:30:09.860 this to

00:30:10.320 the mix

00:30:10.760 I think

00:30:11.980 California

00:30:12.660 has one

00:30:13.660 of the

00:30:13.960 lowest

00:30:14.340 rates

00:30:14.760 of

00:30:15.040 obesity

00:30:15.660 and

00:30:16.640 cigarette

00:30:17.060 smoking

00:30:17.580 I think

00:30:19.840 we're

00:30:20.460 in the

00:30:20.840 top

00:30:21.100 10%

00:30:22.100 of

00:30:22.540 thinnest

00:30:23.280 people

00:30:23.720 so

00:30:25.020 if

00:30:25.580 all you

00:30:26.160 did

00:30:26.340 is

00:30:26.500 compare

00:30:26.840 New

00:30:27.060 York

00:30:27.260 City

00:30:27.580 to

00:30:28.280 California

00:30:30.060 would there

00:30:32.260 be a

00:30:32.540 difference

00:30:32.820 in average

00:30:33.280 weight

00:30:33.720 New

00:30:34.520 York

00:30:34.680 City

00:30:34.880 is

00:30:35.000 actually

00:30:35.280 kind

00:30:35.520 of

00:30:35.620 a thin

00:30:36.060 city

00:30:37.720 so I

00:30:38.080 don't

00:30:38.180 know

00:30:38.320 if that

00:30:38.560 would

00:30:38.700 hold up

00:30:39.120 but if

00:30:40.300 you looked

00:30:40.580 at the

00:30:40.860 country

00:30:41.160 in general

00:30:41.700 Californians

00:30:43.080 are way

00:30:43.500 thinner

00:30:43.800 I mean

00:30:44.440 a lot

00:30:44.960 thinner

00:30:45.220 if you've

00:30:46.200 ever

00:30:46.360 traveled

00:30:46.780 from

00:30:47.120 let's

00:30:47.360 say

00:30:47.500 you're

00:30:47.720 taking

00:30:48.060 a

00:30:48.220 flight

00:30:48.540 and you

00:30:49.240 have a

00:30:49.480 layover

00:30:49.880 in

00:30:50.120 Dallas

00:30:50.540 and you're

00:30:51.480 walking

00:30:51.720 around

00:30:51.960 in the

00:30:52.200 airport

00:30:52.420 looking

00:30:52.760 at the

00:30:53.060 people

00:30:53.300 and then

00:30:54.460 you land

00:30:54.920 in Los

00:30:55.560 Angeles

00:30:56.000 LAX

00:30:56.660 and then

00:30:57.380 you walk

00:30:57.700 around

00:30:57.920 and look

00:30:58.180 at the

00:30:58.400 people

00:30:58.660 they don't

00:31:00.040 look

00:31:00.260 the

00:31:00.460 same

00:31:00.820 in LA

00:31:03.080 you'd

00:31:03.980 have to

00:31:04.260 look

00:31:04.460 pretty

00:31:04.700 hard

00:31:04.900 to find

00:31:05.220 anybody

00:31:05.580 who's

00:31:05.840 overweight

00:31:06.180 it's

00:31:06.920 actually

00:31:07.220 kind

00:31:07.520 of rare

00:31:07.920 at the

00:31:08.340 airport

00:31:08.640 because

00:31:10.100 at the

00:31:10.360 airport

00:31:10.600 is higher

00:31:11.340 income

00:31:11.680 people

00:31:12.040 the lower

00:31:13.660 income

00:31:13.940 people

00:31:14.280 have a

00:31:14.580 little

00:31:14.660 more

00:31:14.840 weight

00:31:15.000 problem

00:31:15.280 but if

00:31:16.200 you go

00:31:16.380 to Dallas

00:31:16.900 and you

00:31:17.740 walk out

00:31:18.520 in the

00:31:18.840 airport

00:31:19.200 it's

00:31:20.240 75%

00:31:21.960 of the

00:31:22.180 people

00:31:22.380 are

00:31:22.640 overweight

00:31:23.720 so we

00:31:25.180 should look

00:31:25.480 at that

00:31:25.820 the weight

00:31:26.540 of different

00:31:27.080 states

00:31:27.460 that should

00:31:27.760 be a factor

00:31:28.220 and smoking

00:31:29.380 rates

00:31:29.780 that should

00:31:30.080 be a factor

00:31:30.560 and somebody

00:31:31.560 pointed out

00:31:32.060 on Twitter

00:31:32.600 that Colorado

00:31:35.040 also has

00:31:36.000 they're having

00:31:36.940 some problems

00:31:37.660 and so

00:31:39.220 it might not

00:31:40.540 just be

00:31:41.100 weight

00:31:41.660 because

00:31:42.220 Colorado

00:31:42.880 Colorado

00:31:43.780 wins

00:31:44.500 people in

00:31:45.620 Colorado

00:31:46.040 are also

00:31:47.200 not overweight

00:31:48.040 but they

00:31:49.500 are having

00:31:50.080 a high

00:31:50.900 problem

00:31:51.280 with infections

00:31:51.940 and deaths

00:31:52.560 and so I

00:31:54.060 looked up

00:31:54.400 their humidity

00:31:55.120 and it turns

00:31:56.520 out that

00:31:56.980 Colorado

00:31:57.360 has very

00:31:57.880 low humidity

00:31:58.720 which is

00:31:59.840 one of the

00:32:00.240 variables that

00:32:00.840 would cause

00:32:01.220 you to have

00:32:01.720 more infections

00:32:02.400 so California

00:32:03.460 has relatively

00:32:04.200 higher humidity

00:32:05.040 than Colorado

00:32:05.860 so I'm

00:32:07.560 wondering if

00:32:08.100 we're coming

00:32:08.700 to the point

00:32:09.180 where we

00:32:10.020 can identify

00:32:10.880 I don't know

00:32:12.500 seven different

00:32:13.380 variables that

00:32:14.360 are the most

00:32:15.400 important ones

00:32:16.240 and it would

00:32:17.040 explain everything

00:32:18.000 we're seeing

00:32:18.640 in the different

00:32:19.220 death rates

00:32:20.100 so we've got

00:32:21.240 age and

00:32:22.300 comorbidities

00:32:23.960 and living in

00:32:24.860 the same

00:32:25.200 households

00:32:25.780 and density

00:32:27.320 humidity

00:32:28.480 weight

00:32:29.640 rates of

00:32:30.540 smoking

00:32:30.960 all those

00:32:32.300 things

00:32:32.580 all right

00:32:33.600 Europeans

00:32:38.840 are

00:32:39.120 so here's

00:32:41.220 a question

00:32:41.560 I asked

00:32:41.920 yesterday

00:32:42.260 I still

00:32:42.660 don't have

00:32:42.960 an answer

00:32:43.320 somebody

00:32:44.080 suggested

00:32:44.660 Sweden

00:32:45.140 but in

00:32:46.420 the same

00:32:46.780 way that

00:32:47.180 I'm saying

00:32:47.580 that New

00:32:48.420 York City

00:32:48.980 might tell

00:32:49.860 us a little

00:32:50.400 bit about

00:32:50.980 what the rest

00:32:52.100 of the country

00:32:52.560 could have

00:32:53.080 looked like

00:32:53.560 if we

00:32:53.900 acted

00:32:54.140 differently

00:32:54.520 there must

00:32:55.540 be some

00:32:56.040 country

00:32:56.540 that would

00:32:57.840 make a good

00:32:58.340 reference point

00:32:59.080 for us

00:32:59.520 so I'd be

00:33:00.540 looking for

00:33:00.980 a country

00:33:01.420 that did

00:33:02.080 everything

00:33:03.240 that we

00:33:03.860 did

00:33:04.300 except for

00:33:05.940 mitigation

00:33:06.480 so if you

00:33:08.340 could find

00:33:08.780 something that

00:33:09.560 that on all

00:33:10.440 the other

00:33:10.800 variables that

00:33:11.560 were sort of

00:33:12.100 similar to us

00:33:12.840 but they did

00:33:13.760 no mitigation

00:33:14.500 whatsoever

00:33:14.960 I mean

00:33:15.520 no

00:33:16.000 yeah no

00:33:17.220 mitigation

00:33:17.620 so no

00:33:18.740 masks

00:33:19.360 and no

00:33:20.520 social

00:33:20.880 isolation

00:33:21.400 and then

00:33:22.720 you let

00:33:23.140 that run

00:33:23.540 for a while

00:33:24.100 so that

00:33:24.520 you know

00:33:24.960 because

00:33:25.180 they're getting

00:33:25.940 infected at

00:33:26.620 different timing

00:33:27.420 but at the

00:33:28.820 end of the

00:33:29.200 run

00:33:29.540 could we

00:33:30.640 look at

00:33:31.180 Sweden

00:33:31.860 for example

00:33:32.780 and say

00:33:33.620 okay

00:33:33.940 Sweden

00:33:34.460 is the

00:33:35.100 model

00:33:35.460 for if

00:33:36.740 we had

00:33:37.060 not

00:33:37.280 mitigated

00:33:37.860 it would

00:33:38.720 look like

00:33:39.140 whatever

00:33:39.420 happened

00:33:39.760 in Sweden

00:33:40.200 can

00:33:42.600 somebody

00:33:43.220 can

00:33:47.560 somebody

00:33:48.100 give me

00:33:49.440 an example

00:33:50.040 of what

00:33:50.460 country

00:33:51.040 we should

00:33:52.240 agree

00:33:52.600 today

00:33:53.180 will be

00:33:54.740 in the

00:33:55.020 future

00:33:55.360 the point

00:33:55.840 we

00:33:56.060 the one

00:33:56.560 we compare

00:33:57.060 ourselves

00:33:57.480 to

00:33:57.740 can

00:33:58.200 somebody

00:33:58.500 do

00:33:58.680 that

00:33:58.920 somebody

00:34:01.040 says

00:34:01.320 zero

00:34:01.660 deaths

00:34:02.000 on

00:34:02.220 Maui

00:34:02.600 well

00:34:03.080 Maui

00:34:03.640 is a

00:34:03.900 special

00:34:04.160 case

00:34:04.580 you know

00:34:05.500 half the

00:34:07.020 people

00:34:07.240 in Maui

00:34:07.740 are just

00:34:08.200 there

00:34:08.420 for the

00:34:08.740 two

00:34:09.020 weeks

00:34:09.340 so they

00:34:10.820 go home

00:34:11.180 to die

00:34:11.520 I think

00:34:11.880 New York

00:34:16.540 City

00:34:16.780 Mayor

00:34:17.080 says

00:34:17.460 park

00:34:17.900 burials

00:34:18.440 is fake

00:34:19.160 news

00:34:19.600 per CNN

00:34:20.540 which is

00:34:24.320 easy to

00:34:24.760 believe

00:34:25.100 by the

00:34:25.740 way

00:34:25.920 it would

00:34:26.360 be easy

00:34:26.820 for me

00:34:27.200 to believe

00:34:27.560 that the

00:34:27.960 park

00:34:28.300 burials

00:34:28.720 is fake

00:34:29.160 news

00:34:29.460 I don't

00:34:29.740 know

00:34:29.880 if that's

00:34:30.200 true

00:34:30.400 but it

00:34:31.160 doesn't

00:34:31.400 change

00:34:31.660 anything

00:34:31.980 I said

00:34:32.480 because

00:34:33.380 the raw

00:34:33.940 number

00:34:34.360 of dead

00:34:34.960 is the

00:34:36.280 only one

00:34:36.560 that matters

00:34:37.000 it doesn't

00:34:37.360 matter

00:34:37.560 where you

00:34:38.020 put them

00:34:38.440 if there

00:34:39.400 are a lot

00:34:39.740 of them

00:34:39.980 there are

00:34:40.200 a lot

00:34:40.420 of them

00:34:40.700 no matter

00:34:41.220 where they

00:34:41.580 go

00:34:41.800 so

00:34:43.000 some

00:34:43.780 people

00:34:44.360 are saying

00:34:44.700 Sweden

00:34:45.060 some

00:34:45.980 people

00:34:46.220 are saying

00:34:46.520 Norway

00:34:46.880 I don't

00:34:49.120 know

00:34:49.300 did Sweden

00:34:49.860 do mitigation

00:34:50.620 did they

00:34:51.140 do masks

00:34:51.820 I don't

00:34:52.300 know

00:34:52.580 somebody

00:34:56.180 says the

00:34:56.620 average weight

00:34:57.160 of a

00:34:57.460 female in

00:34:58.000 New York

00:34:58.500 is 150

00:35:00.040 but in

00:35:00.840 LA it's

00:35:01.580 more

00:35:01.880 156

00:35:03.180 interesting

00:35:04.760 that's an

00:35:06.200 average

00:35:06.580 the

00:35:07.360 obesity

00:35:08.060 level

00:35:08.640 though

00:35:09.620 for

00:35:10.180 California

00:35:11.180 California

00:35:11.240 is

00:35:11.480 actually

00:35:11.860 low

00:35:12.200 recent

00:35:15.680 report

00:35:16.080 marijuana

00:35:16.560 causes

00:35:17.000 bronchitis

00:35:17.640 inflammation

00:35:18.220 and that's

00:35:19.340 the worst

00:35:19.760 case

00:35:20.180 with the

00:35:20.740 virus

00:35:21.140 could be

00:35:21.960 somebody

00:35:24.940 somebody says

00:35:25.260 Australia

00:35:26.080 didn't Australia

00:35:27.280 do some

00:35:27.980 mitigation

00:35:28.480 something like

00:35:33.080 that

00:35:33.360 New York

00:35:35.460 is analogous

00:35:36.280 to Italy

00:35:36.940 well I don't

00:35:37.660 know if it

00:35:38.440 is because

00:35:39.040 Italy had

00:35:39.900 some seriously

00:35:41.940 unhealthy

00:35:42.460 people

00:35:42.920 I don't know

00:35:43.420 what the

00:35:43.880 obesity rate

00:35:45.660 is for

00:35:46.280 Italy

00:35:46.660 well why don't

00:35:47.380 we find

00:35:47.760 out

00:35:48.080 hey Siri

00:35:50.280 Google

00:35:52.080 obesity rate

00:35:53.260 for Italy

00:35:54.060 ok

00:35:56.380 I found

00:35:57.340 this on

00:35:57.660 the web

00:35:57.980 for

00:35:58.180 obesity

00:35:58.520 let's

00:36:00.300 see

00:36:00.920 how the

00:36:04.440 obesity rate

00:36:05.180 in Italy

00:36:05.580 looks

00:36:05.980 it's

00:36:08.320 considered

00:36:08.700 mild

00:36:09.140 compared

00:36:10.180 to

00:36:10.420 its

00:36:10.580 neighbors

00:36:10.960 to

00:36:14.580 Europe

00:36:15.580 oh

00:36:18.220 European

00:36:18.800 obesity

00:36:19.480 is one

00:36:19.840 of the

00:36:20.020 highest

00:36:20.360 I didn't

00:36:20.780 know

00:36:20.900 that

00:36:21.200 so

00:36:27.060 Italy

00:36:27.560 Italy

00:36:28.060 is not

00:36:28.680 appreciably

00:36:30.680 worse than

00:36:31.420 other European

00:36:32.220 countries

00:36:32.720 but apparently

00:36:33.460 the European

00:36:34.000 countries

00:36:34.560 are

00:36:34.800 over a

00:36:37.340 third of

00:36:37.620 them are

00:36:37.940 obese

00:36:38.320 in

00:36:39.040 childhood

00:36:39.440 Sweden

00:36:43.500 has

00:36:43.920 low

00:36:44.400 density

00:36:44.840 40%

00:36:47.240 working

00:36:47.580 at home

00:36:47.860 anyway

00:36:48.200 yeah

00:36:48.820 ventilators

00:36:53.040 are making

00:36:53.500 it worse

00:36:53.980 yeah

00:36:54.600 somebody's

00:36:55.280 saying in

00:36:55.540 the comments

00:36:56.000 that ventilators

00:36:56.680 are making

00:36:57.280 it worse

00:36:57.540 I don't

00:36:58.100 know that

00:36:58.420 that's

00:36:58.700 true

00:36:59.060 but I

00:36:59.440 did see

00:36:59.940 a

00:37:00.380 was it

00:37:02.020 a video

00:37:02.420 or an

00:37:03.180 article

00:37:03.440 by a

00:37:03.840 doctor

00:37:04.160 who

00:37:05.000 put people

00:37:06.060 on

00:37:06.240 ventilators

00:37:06.760 and the

00:37:07.600 doctor

00:37:07.940 was

00:37:08.460 speculating

00:37:09.120 that if

00:37:10.360 we've

00:37:10.760 slightly

00:37:11.340 misdiagnosed

00:37:12.360 the problem

00:37:13.000 and that

00:37:13.440 maybe the

00:37:13.940 problem

00:37:14.240 happens

00:37:14.660 is in

00:37:14.820 the blood

00:37:15.300 not

00:37:16.280 the lungs

00:37:16.780 and the

00:37:17.280 lungs are

00:37:17.940 more the

00:37:18.440 result of

00:37:20.300 the blood

00:37:20.640 not doing

00:37:21.100 its job

00:37:21.580 which would

00:37:23.000 have

00:37:24.060 implications

00:37:24.580 for how

00:37:25.320 you treat

00:37:25.740 it

00:37:25.980 one of the

00:37:26.680 implications

00:37:27.120 is that

00:37:28.280 if the

00:37:28.760 problem is

00:37:29.420 in the

00:37:29.740 lungs

00:37:30.140 then a

00:37:31.220 ventilator

00:37:31.660 makes

00:37:31.960 sense

00:37:32.400 but if

00:37:33.380 the problem

00:37:33.900 was in

00:37:34.780 the blood

00:37:35.200 the blood

00:37:35.640 failed to be

00:37:36.620 able to

00:37:36.880 carry enough

00:37:37.360 oxygen

00:37:37.780 because of

00:37:38.340 the virus

00:37:38.820 then putting

00:37:40.520 the ventilator

00:37:41.140 in the lungs

00:37:41.720 and treating

00:37:42.440 it as

00:37:42.960 though it's

00:37:43.340 a lung

00:37:43.700 problem

00:37:44.160 would cause

00:37:45.440 you to set

00:37:45.980 the ventilator

00:37:46.760 settings at

00:37:47.400 the wrong

00:37:47.760 setting

00:37:48.200 because you

00:37:48.680 had misdiagnosed

00:37:49.560 what's going

00:37:50.040 on

00:37:50.360 and then the

00:37:51.340 ventilator would

00:37:52.000 cause more

00:37:52.600 problems than

00:37:53.380 it would help

00:37:53.820 or at least

00:37:54.560 it would cause

00:37:55.000 damage even if

00:37:56.000 it was helping

00:37:56.460 so there's

00:37:57.720 at least

00:37:58.180 some speculation

00:37:59.280 from a

00:38:00.360 doctor

00:38:00.660 who does

00:38:01.540 ventilators

00:38:02.480 and has a

00:38:03.260 theory

00:38:03.560 but it's still

00:38:04.520 speculation at

00:38:05.280 this point

00:38:05.680 that the

00:38:06.640 ventilators might

00:38:07.380 actually be

00:38:07.920 making it worse

00:38:08.560 now I saw

00:38:09.760 I heard a

00:38:10.800 statistic that

00:38:13.400 needs to be

00:38:13.820 checked

00:38:14.100 so yesterday

00:38:15.340 somebody said

00:38:16.160 something about

00:38:16.980 maybe it was

00:38:17.760 just New York

00:38:18.380 City

00:38:18.640 that 40% 0.88

00:38:20.380 of the

00:38:20.760 ventilator

00:38:21.280 patients are

00:38:21.980 coming off

00:38:22.660 the ventilator

00:38:23.340 which seemed

00:38:25.240 high to me

00:38:26.100 so I need a

00:38:27.520 fact check on

00:38:28.120 this

00:38:28.360 because my

00:38:28.780 understanding

00:38:29.340 was that

00:38:30.440 once you

00:38:30.880 got on a

00:38:31.540 ventilator

00:38:32.080 it didn't

00:38:32.620 matter what

00:38:33.080 the reason

00:38:33.700 was

00:38:34.120 that by the

00:38:35.160 time you

00:38:35.540 get on a

00:38:35.960 ventilator

00:38:36.540 your odds

00:38:37.880 of ever

00:38:38.620 getting off

00:38:39.220 it

00:38:39.460 and improving

00:38:41.140 and just

00:38:41.600 having a full

00:38:42.100 recovery

00:38:42.540 I thought it

00:38:43.800 was low

00:38:44.320 like in the

00:38:45.460 10% range

00:38:46.640 but then I

00:38:48.300 heard that the

00:38:48.940 New York

00:38:49.200 City experience

00:38:51.180 I think it was

00:38:51.840 New York City

00:38:52.360 I need a fact

00:38:53.080 check on that

00:38:53.600 was something

00:38:54.420 like 40%

00:38:55.440 of people

00:38:55.800 getting off

00:38:56.320 ventilators

00:38:56.900 now could

00:38:59.040 it be

00:38:59.480 that one

00:39:00.740 of the

00:39:01.000 things that

00:39:01.560 the emergency

00:39:02.520 health care

00:39:03.680 people are

00:39:04.320 learning

00:39:04.700 is that they

00:39:05.800 have to adjust

00:39:06.580 the ventilator

00:39:07.340 settings differently

00:39:08.280 so it could

00:39:09.440 be that on

00:39:09.980 day one

00:39:10.540 people were

00:39:11.520 not doing

00:39:11.980 so well

00:39:12.400 on ventilators

00:39:13.080 because maybe

00:39:13.620 they had the

00:39:14.040 settings wrong

00:39:14.720 there are a lot

00:39:15.440 of different

00:39:16.120 ways you can

00:39:17.600 set them

00:39:18.080 for how much

00:39:18.700 pressure it

00:39:19.160 puts

00:39:19.340 so it could

00:39:20.440 be that they

00:39:21.100 figured out

00:39:21.580 how to fine

00:39:22.120 tune the

00:39:22.500 ventilators

00:39:23.120 to get

00:39:24.120 the benefits

00:39:24.700 without having

00:39:26.240 too much

00:39:26.640 pressure and

00:39:27.240 causing its

00:39:27.980 own problems

00:39:28.620 Dr. Shiva

00:39:32.500 says a

00:39:33.040 high dosage

00:39:33.680 of vitamin

00:39:34.220 C drip

00:39:34.960 may not

00:39:35.620 require

00:39:36.140 intubation

00:39:37.380 is that the

00:39:39.060 thing you

00:39:39.340 wanted me to

00:39:40.120 comment on

00:39:41.100 because I

00:39:41.700 can't really

00:39:42.080 comment on

00:39:42.720 a medical

00:39:43.480 claim

00:39:43.960 so if the

00:39:47.400 claim is that

00:39:48.120 a vitamin

00:39:48.800 C drip

00:39:49.420 can do

00:39:50.500 that

00:39:50.900 I would

00:39:52.200 hope

00:39:52.400 somebody's

00:39:52.940 looking into

00:39:53.940 that right

00:39:54.320 now

00:39:54.520 but I

00:39:55.280 don't have

00:39:55.580 a comment

00:39:56.120 about whether

00:39:56.580 that's true

00:39:57.080 or false

00:39:57.520 how could

00:39:57.900 I

00:39:58.080 somebody

00:39:59.760 asked me

00:40:00.200 why does

00:40:00.820 India

00:40:01.880 seem to

00:40:02.580 have

00:40:02.760 relatively

00:40:03.300 low

00:40:03.760 infections

00:40:04.440 I can

00:40:05.760 think of

00:40:06.100 two reasons

00:40:06.680 one

00:40:07.260 they don't

00:40:08.600 know who

00:40:08.880 is infected

00:40:09.380 how hard

00:40:10.680 is it to

00:40:11.140 find out

00:40:11.520 if somebody

00:40:12.040 has

00:40:12.840 coronavirus

00:40:13.300 if they're

00:40:14.700 in some

00:40:15.080 small village

00:40:15.980 in India

00:40:16.780 what's the

00:40:18.940 health care

00:40:19.420 look like

00:40:20.080 outside of

00:40:21.160 the metro

00:40:21.500 areas

00:40:22.080 so I

00:40:22.980 don't know

00:40:23.540 if anybody

00:40:23.980 knows what

00:40:24.580 the infection

00:40:25.060 rate or

00:40:25.540 even the

00:40:25.880 death rate

00:40:26.280 is in

00:40:26.780 India

00:40:27.080 because I

00:40:27.840 don't know

00:40:28.160 how well

00:40:28.520 they can

00:40:28.840 report that

00:40:29.520 stuff

00:40:29.900 given the

00:40:30.440 size and

00:40:32.220 the level

00:40:33.700 of poverty

00:40:34.260 and everything

00:40:35.360 else

00:40:35.660 but there's

00:40:36.980 also speculation

00:40:37.840 speculation

00:40:38.140 that India

00:40:40.820 being a

00:40:41.560 major

00:40:42.120 producer

00:40:43.280 of

00:40:43.740 hydroxychloroquine

00:40:44.760 I think

00:40:45.340 their number

00:40:45.880 one producer

00:40:46.740 or the

00:40:47.680 number one

00:40:48.140 source for

00:40:48.720 the United

00:40:49.040 States

00:40:49.480 for that

00:40:49.820 drug

00:40:50.100 there's

00:40:51.820 thought that

00:40:52.320 the citizens

00:40:53.340 are either

00:40:53.900 many of them

00:40:54.580 are already

00:40:54.960 on it

00:40:55.440 because of

00:40:55.960 malaria

00:40:56.260 or could

00:40:56.840 easily get

00:40:57.500 it

00:40:57.780 and that

00:40:58.740 maybe that's

00:40:59.260 part of the

00:40:59.660 reason that

00:41:00.220 it doesn't

00:41:00.900 look like

00:41:01.360 it's as

00:41:01.960 big a

00:41:02.240 problem

00:41:02.480 there

00:41:02.820 ventilators

00:41:07.340 can't be

00:41:07.700 used if

00:41:08.060 the lungs

00:41:08.380 are too

00:41:08.780 filled with

00:41:09.260 fluid

00:41:09.580 somebody

00:41:09.940 says

00:41:10.200 well

00:41:10.460 I don't

00:41:10.980 know

00:41:11.240 all I can

00:41:12.780 say for

00:41:13.140 sure

00:41:13.660 is that

00:41:15.900 there seems

00:41:16.420 to be

00:41:16.980 some reason

00:41:18.100 to believe

00:41:18.540 that if

00:41:18.880 you don't

00:41:19.180 have the

00:41:19.520 ventilator

00:41:20.020 at the

00:41:20.360 right

00:41:20.520 settings

00:41:21.140 it could

00:41:22.420 do more

00:41:22.820 harm than

00:41:23.240 good

00:41:23.500 so maybe

00:41:24.280 we just

00:41:24.700 got smarter

00:41:25.280 about the

00:41:25.720 settings

00:41:26.040 that would

00:41:26.420 make sense

00:41:27.000 somebody

00:41:29.680 says

00:41:30.000 vitamin C

00:41:30.620 is not

00:41:30.960 a cure

00:41:31.420 fools

00:41:32.260 well

00:41:33.620 I certainly

00:41:34.680 would not

00:41:35.440 be saying

00:41:36.120 vitamin C

00:41:36.900 is a cure

00:41:37.720 and I doubt

00:41:39.600 that Dr.

00:41:40.620 Shiva is

00:41:41.100 saying it's

00:41:41.500 a cure

00:41:42.100 if the

00:41:44.560 claim that

00:41:45.080 I saw

00:41:45.400 in the

00:41:45.620 comments

00:41:46.020 is correct

00:41:47.320 it's a

00:41:47.920 very limited

00:41:48.540 claim that

00:41:49.180 it could

00:41:49.440 keep you

00:41:49.900 off the

00:41:50.340 ventilator

00:41:50.880 I don't

00:41:51.900 know if

00:41:52.120 there's

00:41:52.280 any studies

00:41:52.820 to show

00:41:53.220 that

00:41:53.500 I have

00:41:54.140 no idea

00:41:54.620 why does

00:41:57.980 Russia have 0.77

00:41:58.680 a low

00:41:59.200 infection

00:42:00.800 rate

00:42:01.160 well I

00:42:01.900 wouldn't

00:42:02.100 trust any

00:42:02.580 numbers out

00:42:03.080 of Russia

00:42:03.440 would you

00:42:03.920 same thing

00:42:05.840 India only

00:42:10.740 has a

00:42:11.060 billion people

00:42:11.640 yes

00:42:12.060 Trump said

00:42:16.300 we have

00:42:16.600 ventilators

00:42:17.200 but not

00:42:17.640 enough

00:42:17.900 qualified

00:42:18.500 people

00:42:19.120 yeah that

00:42:19.840 that is

00:42:20.800 a problem

00:42:21.260 I did

00:42:22.280 hear from

00:42:22.740 a ventilator

00:42:23.640 expert

00:42:24.240 once

00:42:25.020 on Twitter

00:42:25.880 so it's

00:42:26.500 you know

00:42:26.940 take that

00:42:27.900 with a

00:42:28.100 grain of

00:42:28.420 salt

00:42:28.580 and the

00:42:29.580 ventilator

00:42:30.140 guy said

00:42:30.780 that if

00:42:31.600 you wanted

00:42:31.860 to go to

00:42:32.220 school to

00:42:32.800 be a

00:42:33.040 ventilator

00:42:33.640 operator

00:42:34.240 technician

00:42:35.260 whatever

00:42:35.620 they're

00:42:35.880 called

00:42:36.040 it might

00:42:36.800 take a

00:42:37.180 few years

00:42:37.680 of school

00:42:38.080 but if

00:42:39.560 you wanted

00:42:39.960 to quickly

00:42:40.660 train let's

00:42:41.400 say somebody

00:42:41.980 who was

00:42:42.280 already a

00:42:43.060 nurse

00:42:43.420 so they

00:42:44.300 had some

00:42:44.660 background

00:42:45.100 in health

00:42:46.520 so if

00:42:47.480 you took

00:42:47.740 a nurse

00:42:48.200 and tried

00:42:48.700 to say

00:42:48.980 okay it's

00:42:49.440 an emergency

00:42:50.000 I'm going

00:42:51.040 to try to

00:42:51.400 train you

00:42:51.780 as quickly

00:42:52.180 as possible

00:42:52.820 just for

00:42:53.380 these

00:42:53.660 just for

00:42:54.540 this one

00:42:54.900 type of

00:42:55.280 machine

00:42:55.600 that you

00:42:55.960 use in

00:42:56.300 your

00:42:56.420 hospital

00:42:56.860 and just

00:42:57.940 for

00:42:58.120 coronavirus

00:42:58.540 patients

00:42:59.280 and so

00:43:00.860 the one

00:43:01.140 person who

00:43:01.540 was an

00:43:01.780 expert in

00:43:02.280 said okay

00:43:02.840 if you

00:43:03.140 limit it

00:43:03.660 to that

00:43:04.180 and you

00:43:05.120 start with

00:43:05.600 a nurse

00:43:06.140 who's got

00:43:06.940 some general

00:43:07.440 background

00:43:07.860 and you

00:43:08.860 stick with

00:43:09.240 one machine

00:43:09.920 and you

00:43:11.440 tell them

00:43:11.740 just how to

00:43:12.340 use it

00:43:12.600 for this

00:43:12.880 one problem

00:43:13.520 you could

00:43:14.380 probably

00:43:14.580 train people

00:43:15.160 up pretty

00:43:15.520 quickly

00:43:15.820 I don't

00:43:18.400 know if

00:43:18.640 it's

00:43:18.760 happening

00:43:19.600 vitamin D

00:43:24.560 is more

00:43:24.960 important

00:43:25.360 says

00:43:25.860 someone

00:43:26.220 I think

00:43:27.260 we're all

00:43:27.640 in the

00:43:27.900 same boat

00:43:28.360 these are

00:43:29.420 all claims

00:43:30.020 which have

00:43:30.500 some

00:43:30.860 they have

00:43:32.560 some reason

00:43:33.100 to think

00:43:33.540 you'd want

00:43:34.000 to know

00:43:34.200 more about

00:43:34.660 it

00:43:34.860 but

00:43:35.080 we don't

00:43:37.820 saying

00:43:41.080 that something

00:43:41.620 is not a

00:43:42.280 cure because

00:43:42.860 it doesn't

00:43:43.340 cure 100%

00:43:44.420 is loser

00:43:45.180 think

00:43:45.580 that is

00:43:46.940 well true

00:43:49.580 except for

00:43:50.080 the word

00:43:50.480 cure

00:43:50.980 does

00:43:52.580 imply

00:43:53.880 that it

00:43:54.300 works

00:43:54.700 this does

00:43:59.420 sound like

00:43:59.800 a very

00:44:00.060 similar

00:44:00.380 condition

00:44:00.820 to high

00:44:01.340 altitude

00:44:01.780 edema

00:44:02.640 and would

00:44:04.260 it be

00:44:04.560 a coincidence

00:44:05.160 that the

00:44:05.820 high altitude

00:44:06.500 places

00:44:07.220 like

00:44:08.000 Colorado

00:44:09.780 have problems

00:44:10.760 there are

00:44:11.700 some low

00:44:12.080 altitude

00:44:12.400 places

00:44:12.840 have problems

00:44:13.480 too

00:44:13.700 is

00:44:16.000 Mexico City

00:44:17.100 making

00:44:17.540 mass graves

00:44:18.240 or not

00:44:18.700 I don't

00:44:19.020 know anything

00:44:19.360 about that

00:44:20.120 somebody

00:44:23.980 says

00:44:24.280 their wife

00:44:24.780 isn't

00:44:25.480 trained

00:44:25.840 for the

00:44:26.280 ventilators

00:44:26.820 but has

00:44:27.780 made use

00:44:28.800 of them

00:44:29.140 yeah I

00:44:29.840 think that

00:44:30.180 would be

00:44:30.440 common

00:44:30.800 yeah so

00:44:38.620 I'm seeing

00:44:39.060 many of you

00:44:39.500 commenting on

00:44:40.220 the thing I

00:44:40.820 just mentioned

00:44:41.400 so there

00:44:42.300 is some

00:44:43.800 thought

00:44:44.700 that's

00:44:45.360 unproven

00:44:45.920 that the

00:44:47.160 problem

00:44:47.500 happens in

00:44:48.060 the blood

00:44:48.480 and that's

00:44:48.960 why the

00:44:49.260 hydroxychloroquine

00:44:50.260 works

00:44:50.760 because the way

00:44:51.900 it works

00:44:52.260 against malaria

00:44:52.960 is that it

00:44:53.660 works in the

00:44:55.220 blood

00:44:55.500 not in the

00:44:56.120 lungs

00:44:56.380 I thought

00:44:59.280 the need for

00:44:59.760 ventilators

00:45:00.320 is down

00:45:00.980 that is

00:45:01.480 correct

00:45:01.820 my hypothesis

00:45:03.460 is that the

00:45:04.660 need for

00:45:05.080 ventilators

00:45:05.720 is down

00:45:06.560 because

00:45:07.720 hydroxychloroquine

00:45:08.920 or maybe

00:45:09.360 something else

00:45:10.120 is working

00:45:11.240 that is my

00:45:12.960 hypothesis

00:45:13.820 we'll find

00:45:14.780 out later

00:45:15.260 yeah Mexico

00:45:22.040 City has

00:45:22.600 9 million

00:45:23.140 people

00:45:23.580 more than

00:45:24.000 New York

00:45:24.260 City

00:45:24.500 so you

00:45:25.720 have to

00:45:25.960 be careful

00:45:26.380 about the

00:45:26.820 timing of

00:45:27.360 stuff

00:45:27.660 because

00:45:28.140 if

00:45:29.660 Mexico

00:45:30.500 City

00:45:30.960 is

00:45:31.300 just

00:45:32.100 starting

00:45:32.500 to get

00:45:32.880 infected

00:45:33.360 we'll

00:45:35.120 see

00:45:35.380 because

00:45:36.560 I would

00:45:38.200 think

00:45:38.420 Mexico

00:45:38.900 City

00:45:39.220 is in

00:45:39.520 the

00:45:39.640 worst

00:45:39.840 possible

00:45:40.320 situation

00:45:40.880 right

00:45:41.180 it's

00:45:41.920 dense

00:45:42.220 it's

00:45:42.480 polluted

00:45:42.940 health care

00:45:44.220 is probably

00:45:44.600 not as

00:45:45.200 good as

00:45:45.460 it could

00:45:45.700 be

00:45:45.940 why don't

00:45:51.640 we have

00:45:51.980 solid data

00:45:52.660 on hydroxychloroquine

00:45:54.140 treatment yet

00:45:54.940 that's a really

00:45:56.100 good question

00:45:56.780 and I don't

00:45:58.020 understand that

00:45:58.700 either

00:45:58.960 because

00:45:59.480 correct me

00:46:00.140 if I'm

00:46:00.440 wrong

00:46:00.760 the whole

00:46:01.840 point of

00:46:02.520 hydroxychloroquine

00:46:03.660 is that you

00:46:04.780 would see a

00:46:05.280 big difference

00:46:05.840 after five

00:46:06.660 days of

00:46:07.160 using it

00:46:07.700 or it

00:46:08.780 doesn't

00:46:09.040 work

00:46:09.440 isn't that

00:46:10.560 the claim

00:46:11.020 the claim

00:46:12.220 is that

00:46:12.600 you'll see

00:46:13.020 a difference

00:46:13.420 in five

00:46:13.900 days

00:46:14.200 or it

00:46:14.500 doesn't

00:46:14.740 work

00:46:15.040 how many

00:46:16.160 five day

00:46:16.780 periods

00:46:17.180 have

00:46:17.400 passed

00:46:17.900 since we

00:46:19.600 first

00:46:19.900 heard the

00:46:20.280 hydroxychloroquine

00:46:21.180 might be

00:46:22.180 worth looking

00:46:22.740 into

00:46:23.040 quite a few

00:46:24.660 right

00:46:24.960 how long

00:46:26.940 does it

00:46:27.220 take to

00:46:27.620 put together

00:46:28.240 a study

00:46:28.820 I don't

00:46:30.620 know

00:46:30.840 I think

00:46:31.660 the problem

00:46:32.080 is trying

00:46:32.800 to put

00:46:33.120 together

00:46:33.420 a study

00:46:33.840 in which

00:46:34.120 you have

00:46:34.340 a good

00:46:34.600 control

00:46:35.140 group

00:46:35.580 because

00:46:36.500 you have

00:46:36.860 to take

00:46:37.140 people

00:46:37.580 who

00:46:38.480 willingly

00:46:40.100 don't

00:46:40.940 or at

00:46:41.680 least take

00:46:42.000 the chance

00:46:42.480 that they

00:46:42.740 get the

00:46:43.060 placebo

00:46:43.440 when they

00:46:45.060 have a

00:46:45.360 strong

00:46:45.600 suspicion

00:46:46.060 that the

00:46:46.460 hydroxychloroquine

00:46:47.340 might work

00:46:47.940 so how do you

00:46:49.460 get so many

00:46:49.980 people to

00:46:51.020 take the

00:46:51.400 placebo

00:46:51.800 or at least

00:46:52.540 take a 50%

00:46:53.800 chance of

00:46:54.340 getting a

00:46:54.720 placebo

00:46:55.100 if they

00:46:56.100 don't have

00:46:56.580 to

00:46:56.740 maybe it's

00:46:57.940 just hard

00:46:58.280 to make

00:46:58.560 a study

00:46:59.020 but do

00:47:00.660 you need

00:47:00.940 a study

00:47:01.360 or could

00:47:03.460 you just

00:47:03.820 say

00:47:04.140 all right

00:47:05.320 my hospital

00:47:07.500 treated

00:47:08.080 400 people

00:47:09.460 200 of

00:47:11.900 them got

00:47:12.200 hydroxychloroquine

00:47:13.300 and none

00:47:14.660 of them

00:47:14.920 got on

00:47:15.180 ventilators

00:47:15.840 but the

00:47:16.820 other group

00:47:17.420 even though

00:47:18.780 it's not a

00:47:19.180 controlled

00:47:19.460 study

00:47:19.900 there were

00:47:20.800 200 of

00:47:21.460 them

00:47:21.640 and 8

00:47:22.280 of them

00:47:22.600 ended up

00:47:23.060 on ventilators

00:47:23.780 wouldn't you

00:47:24.940 feel like

00:47:25.400 that would

00:47:25.740 tell you

00:47:26.060 a lot

00:47:26.480 don't you

00:47:28.280 feel like

00:47:28.780 if you

00:47:29.100 saw

00:47:29.400 the results

00:47:30.840 of 400

00:47:31.580 people

00:47:32.060 in hospital

00:47:33.920 settings

00:47:34.420 and you

00:47:35.360 knew that

00:47:35.720 200 of

00:47:36.420 them were

00:47:36.700 treated

00:47:37.040 kind of

00:47:37.480 early

00:47:37.800 with

00:47:38.060 hydroxychloroquine

00:47:39.020 and the

00:47:39.320 other 200

00:47:39.800 never got

00:47:40.500 it

00:47:40.980 don't you

00:47:44.020 think that

00:47:44.400 would tell

00:47:44.720 you

00:47:44.920 because if

00:47:45.820 you can't

00:47:46.360 tell with

00:47:46.940 if you can't

00:47:48.160 tell the

00:47:48.460 difference

00:47:48.880 with just

00:47:50.500 200 or

00:47:51.580 400 people

00:47:52.460 it's probably

00:47:53.600 not working

00:47:54.220 and if it

00:47:56.960 didn't work

00:47:57.480 it would

00:47:58.480 not be

00:47:59.000 validating

00:47:59.740 the claims

00:48:00.740 that you

00:48:01.080 see

00:48:01.320 anecdotally

00:48:02.020 in other

00:48:02.760 words

00:48:02.980 the claims

00:48:03.720 that people

00:48:04.140 are making

00:48:04.600 just

00:48:05.220 first person

00:48:06.460 hey I

00:48:06.940 took this

00:48:07.340 drug

00:48:07.600 and I

00:48:07.820 got better

00:48:08.240 the claim

00:48:09.380 they all

00:48:09.820 make

00:48:10.240 is that

00:48:11.340 it's obvious

00:48:11.960 it made

00:48:12.360 a difference

00:48:12.880 it was fast

00:48:14.260 it was obvious

00:48:15.000 and the people

00:48:16.620 saying it

00:48:17.320 are quite

00:48:18.460 convinced

00:48:18.980 it wasn't

00:48:19.460 going to

00:48:19.680 happen

00:48:19.880 on its

00:48:20.220 own

00:48:20.460 because

00:48:21.260 taking

00:48:21.700 the drug

00:48:22.160 sort of

00:48:22.640 marked

00:48:23.000 it was

00:48:24.160 too

00:48:24.360 conveniently

00:48:24.880 marked

00:48:25.260 the time

00:48:25.680 that their

00:48:26.020 improvements

00:48:26.440 started

00:48:26.940 after worsening

00:48:28.080 for 10

00:48:28.560 days

00:48:28.820 in a row

00:48:29.160 but that

00:48:30.540 doesn't

00:48:30.840 mean

00:48:31.000 they're

00:48:31.220 right

00:48:31.600 could be

00:48:33.020 that the

00:48:33.360 people

00:48:33.600 who don't

00:48:34.000 get better

00:48:34.420 don't go

00:48:34.860 on TV

00:48:35.300 and make

00:48:36.040 social media

00:48:36.660 posts

00:48:37.080 so we just

00:48:37.980 don't hear

00:48:38.380 from them

00:48:38.980 don't rule

00:48:40.580 that out

00:48:41.560 somebody says

00:48:45.940 they think

00:48:46.400 Dr. Drew

00:48:46.940 said the only

00:48:47.420 way to get

00:48:47.900 hydroxychloroquine

00:48:49.020 was to enroll

00:48:49.980 in a study

00:48:50.660 that's what

00:48:51.840 they try

00:48:52.380 to make

00:48:52.760 you do

00:48:53.160 I believe

00:48:55.640 they try

00:48:56.460 to get

00:48:56.840 you into

00:48:57.200 a study

00:48:57.700 if you

00:48:58.840 ask for

00:48:59.320 it

00:48:59.460 or you're

00:48:59.800 a candidate

00:49:00.160 for it

00:49:00.740 but

00:49:01.560 you don't

00:49:02.480 have to

00:49:02.820 be in

00:49:03.040 the study

00:49:03.440 and you

00:49:04.420 can make

00:49:04.820 a case

00:49:05.340 that you're

00:49:06.020 not a good

00:49:06.420 candidate

00:49:06.800 for the

00:49:07.220 study

00:49:07.500 for example

00:49:08.740 I have

00:49:10.140 asthma

00:49:10.440 so I would

00:49:11.680 say to my

00:49:12.100 doctor

00:49:12.400 yes thank

00:49:13.180 you for

00:49:13.520 offering me

00:49:14.060 the study

00:49:14.560 but I

00:49:15.660 have asthma

00:49:16.120 and if

00:49:17.640 there's any

00:49:18.200 chance that

00:49:18.780 the hydroxychloroquine

00:49:19.700 works I don't

00:49:20.720 want to get

00:49:21.120 into a study

00:49:21.820 where I have

00:49:22.300 a 50% chance

00:49:23.420 of getting

00:49:23.720 a placebo

00:49:24.280 so in my

00:49:25.780 case

00:49:26.160 doctor

00:49:26.740 you and I

00:49:28.160 as we sit

00:49:28.700 here in this

00:49:29.200 room together

00:49:29.800 and calculate

00:49:30.920 the odds

00:49:31.720 don't you think

00:49:33.180 you should just

00:49:33.740 give it to me

00:49:34.400 because I've

00:49:35.580 got asthma

00:49:36.060 and you don't

00:49:37.480 want me to

00:49:38.360 get it

00:49:38.780 and not have

00:49:40.000 access to the

00:49:40.540 drugs

00:49:40.720 so you can

00:49:41.960 talk your

00:49:42.500 doctor into

00:49:43.460 it

00:49:43.760 but you've

00:49:44.600 got to be

00:49:44.880 able to make

00:49:45.300 your case

00:49:45.920 and your case

00:49:46.880 has to include

00:49:47.920 there's a reason

00:49:49.200 I should not

00:49:49.740 be in the study

00:49:50.460 part of the

00:49:51.220 reason could

00:49:51.580 be you

00:49:53.040 can't comply

00:49:53.760 with the

00:49:54.140 study

00:49:54.500 you're too

00:49:55.580 busy

00:49:55.940 you've got

00:49:56.340 kids

00:49:56.660 I don't

00:49:56.900 know

00:49:57.020 you probably

00:49:57.400 come up

00:49:57.900 with lots

00:49:58.240 of reasons

00:49:58.580 you couldn't

00:49:59.000 be in the

00:49:59.340 study

00:49:59.620 so there

00:50:01.020 is a way

00:50:01.340 to get

00:50:01.560 it

00:50:01.780 all right

00:50:02.740 I think

00:50:04.680 that's just

00:50:05.180 about

00:50:05.560 somebody says

00:50:07.700 look for

00:50:08.080 Trump to

00:50:08.460 announce

00:50:08.800 some study

00:50:09.660 results

00:50:10.300 today

00:50:11.000 you know

00:50:12.220 until we

00:50:12.740 have the

00:50:13.040 study

00:50:13.320 results

00:50:13.840 that are

00:50:14.240 an actual

00:50:14.740 controlled

00:50:15.500 study

00:50:16.480 with a group

00:50:17.880 that didn't

00:50:18.380 get it at

00:50:18.880 all

00:50:19.180 and are

00:50:21.020 scientifically

00:50:21.540 selected to

00:50:22.560 be you know

00:50:23.100 representative

00:50:23.640 and all

00:50:24.380 that

00:50:24.600 until we

00:50:25.340 have that

00:50:25.700 we're not

00:50:26.080 going to

00:50:26.340 know

00:50:27.040 but the

00:50:29.040 smaller studies

00:50:29.860 that don't

00:50:30.360 have a proper

00:50:30.980 control group

00:50:31.840 I think if

00:50:33.800 the drug

00:50:34.200 works

00:50:34.780 it's just

00:50:35.580 going to be

00:50:35.920 obvious

00:50:36.380 and if it

00:50:37.340 doesn't work

00:50:38.060 probably that

00:50:40.200 would be

00:50:40.440 obvious too

00:50:40.980 yeah there's

00:50:47.640 financial

00:50:48.120 disinterest

00:50:48.940 in the

00:50:50.960 pharma

00:50:51.220 companies

00:50:51.720 because it's

00:50:52.300 not patented

00:50:53.240 but I would

00:50:54.680 still think

00:50:55.160 that the

00:50:55.520 companies that

00:50:56.120 make it

00:50:56.540 are pretty

00:50:57.060 darn happy

00:50:57.720 this year

00:50:59.140 they're selling

00:50:59.700 a lot of

00:51:00.060 it

00:51:00.760 how did

00:51:05.180 they ask

00:51:05.660 you to be

00:51:05.960 in the

00:51:06.180 study

00:51:06.460 if you're

00:51:06.880 on a

00:51:07.140 ventilator

00:51:07.680 I don't

00:51:09.700 think they

00:51:10.120 asked those

00:51:10.560 people

00:51:10.860 I would

00:51:12.480 not want

00:51:12.860 to be

00:51:13.100 Scott's

00:51:13.580 doctor

00:51:13.940 oh you're

00:51:14.540 so right

00:51:15.060 you're

00:51:16.560 so right

00:51:17.060 in my

00:51:19.060 lifetime

00:51:19.500 I can

00:51:20.180 tell you

00:51:20.500 that I

00:51:20.820 have

00:51:20.980 overridden

00:51:22.900 the advice

00:51:23.580 of my

00:51:23.980 doctor

00:51:24.320 quite a

00:51:24.920 few

00:51:25.040 times

00:51:25.480 but

00:51:26.800 in

00:51:27.360 conversation

00:51:27.940 with

00:51:28.240 them

00:51:28.400 not

00:51:28.860 just

00:51:29.400 by

00:51:29.620 myself

00:51:30.080 went

00:51:30.340 home

00:51:30.600 and

00:51:30.740 ignored

00:51:31.060 my

00:51:31.280 doctor

00:51:31.580 but

00:51:32.580 there

00:51:32.800 have

00:51:32.920 been

00:51:33.060 quite

00:51:33.300 a

00:51:33.440 few

00:51:33.560 times

00:51:33.860 if

00:51:34.020 you

00:51:34.120 look

00:51:34.280 at

00:51:34.360 my

00:51:34.480 entire

00:51:34.760 lifetime

00:51:35.280 where

00:51:36.440 a

00:51:36.600 doctor

00:51:36.880 said

00:51:37.300 try

00:51:37.660 X

00:51:38.140 and I

00:51:39.180 would

00:51:39.320 say

00:51:39.560 well I

00:51:40.020 hear what

00:51:40.260 you're

00:51:40.400 saying

00:51:40.640 but

00:51:41.960 considering

00:51:42.580 Y

00:51:43.400 Z

00:51:43.780 and

00:51:44.680 Q

00:51:45.020 maybe

00:51:46.560 we

00:51:46.800 could

00:51:46.920 try

00:51:47.100 something

00:51:47.440 else

00:51:47.760 and

00:51:48.100 I

00:51:48.220 can

00:51:48.360 tell

00:51:48.540 you

00:51:48.660 that

00:51:48.820 I've

00:51:49.080 talked

00:51:49.840 to my

00:51:50.140 doctor

00:51:50.500 a number

00:51:52.120 of

00:51:52.300 times

00:51:52.640 and

00:51:53.320 to

00:51:53.440 say

00:51:53.620 yeah

00:51:53.900 when

00:51:54.300 you

00:51:54.400 put

00:51:54.560 it

00:51:54.660 that

00:51:54.840 way

00:51:55.040 all

00:51:56.100 things

00:51:56.380 considered

00:51:56.900 let's

00:51:57.800 give

00:51:58.240 it

00:51:58.380 a

00:51:58.700 try

00:51:59.080 your

00:52:00.120 way

00:52:00.360 in

00:52:00.500 fact

00:52:00.680 I

00:52:00.840 just

00:52:01.000 recently

00:52:01.360 dealing

00:52:03.100 with

00:52:03.340 my

00:52:03.640 sinuses

00:52:04.200 there

00:52:05.620 were

00:52:05.840 two

00:52:06.200 paths

00:52:06.680 my

00:52:07.620 ENT

00:52:08.200 said

00:52:08.580 let's

00:52:08.880 take

00:52:09.100 this

00:52:09.320 one

00:52:09.560 and

00:52:10.320 I

00:52:10.480 said

00:52:10.700 you

00:52:10.860 know

00:52:11.100 there's

00:52:11.980 one

00:52:12.320 other

00:52:12.560 thing

00:52:12.820 we

00:52:13.000 haven't

00:52:13.300 tried

00:52:13.700 that

00:52:14.840 is

00:52:15.020 low

00:52:15.280 risk

00:52:15.740 probably

00:52:17.300 won't

00:52:17.560 work

00:52:17.920 but

00:52:19.200 we

00:52:19.340 haven't

00:52:19.560 tried

00:52:19.760 it

00:52:19.860 yet

00:52:20.120 and

00:52:20.480 it's

00:52:20.700 easier

00:52:21.100 than

00:52:21.320 surgery

00:52:21.720 and

00:52:23.000 my

00:52:23.180 ENT

00:52:23.540 said

00:52:23.780 you

00:52:23.920 know

00:52:24.140 good

00:52:25.080 point

00:52:25.380 I

00:52:26.240 don't

00:52:26.480 think

00:52:26.740 this

00:52:26.980 new

00:52:27.180 thing

00:52:27.360 will

00:52:27.540 work

00:52:27.900 90%

00:52:29.600 chance

00:52:29.920 it

00:52:30.060 won't

00:52:30.380 but

00:52:30.980 you're

00:52:31.180 right

00:52:31.500 if

00:52:32.160 there's

00:52:32.380 a

00:52:32.500 10%

00:52:32.920 chance

00:52:33.420 that

00:52:34.320 it

00:52:34.460 could

00:52:34.600 avoid

00:52:34.880 surgery

00:52:35.400 yeah

00:52:36.600 go ahead

00:52:37.400 and try

00:52:37.620 it

00:52:37.740 if

00:52:37.860 you're

00:52:38.220 willing

00:52:38.480 to

00:52:38.680 take

00:52:38.880 a

00:52:39.000 few

00:52:39.100 more

00:52:39.300 months

00:52:39.640 and

00:52:40.500 try

00:52:40.760 it

00:52:41.020 go

00:52:41.620 ahead

00:52:41.820 that's

00:52:42.180 a good

00:52:42.700 risk

00:52:43.000 reward

00:52:43.400 now

00:52:43.920 that's

00:52:44.120 perfect

00:52:44.500 example

00:52:45.100 of

00:52:46.500 where

00:52:46.720 working

00:52:47.120 with

00:52:47.380 my

00:52:47.560 doctor

00:52:47.900 and

00:52:48.140 really

00:52:48.360 just

00:52:48.580 talking

00:52:48.860 about

00:52:49.100 the

00:52:49.300 odds

00:52:49.780 and

00:52:50.340 also

00:52:50.620 what

00:52:50.880 I'm

00:52:51.080 willing

00:52:51.360 to

00:52:51.580 do

00:52:51.820 which

00:52:52.080 is

00:52:52.220 the

00:52:52.380 part

00:52:52.580 the

00:52:52.820 doctor

00:52:53.260 can't

00:52:53.680 know

00:52:53.920 the

00:52:54.640 doctor

00:52:54.920 doesn't

00:52:55.220 know

00:52:55.360 what's

00:52:55.560 in

00:52:55.660 your

00:52:55.780 head

00:52:56.140 and

00:52:56.300 that

00:52:56.440 matters

00:52:56.780 too

00:52:57.060 right

00:52:57.360 so

00:52:58.760 yes

00:52:59.060 I'm

00:52:59.400 quite

00:52:59.640 a

00:52:59.780 number

00:52:59.980 of

00:53:00.140 times

00:53:00.480 including

00:53:00.880 recently

00:53:01.320 I

00:53:01.600 have

00:53:01.760 over

00:53:02.160 I

00:53:03.020 have

00:53:03.180 overridden

00:53:03.780 my

00:53:04.020 doctor's

00:53:04.500 recommendation

00:53:05.080 and

00:53:07.080 then

00:53:07.280 my

00:53:07.480 doctor

00:53:07.840 agreed

00:53:08.480 with

00:53:08.680 me

00:53:08.920 you

00:53:09.240 know

00:53:09.340 once

00:53:09.520 I

00:53:09.640 made

00:53:09.780 my

00:53:09.960 case

00:53:10.200 it's

00:53:10.380 a

00:53:10.480 very

00:53:10.600 normal

00:53:10.920 thing

00:53:11.220 likewise

00:53:12.040 with

00:53:12.420 lawyers

00:53:12.860 I've

00:53:14.240 dealt

00:53:14.940 with

00:53:15.140 a lot

00:53:15.700 of

00:53:15.820 lawyers

00:53:16.120 in

00:53:16.300 my

00:53:16.420 life

00:53:16.680 trust

00:53:17.060 me

00:53:17.260 being

00:53:17.460 a

00:53:17.640 cartoonist

00:53:18.280 means

00:53:18.660 a lot

00:53:19.280 of

00:53:19.400 lawyers

00:53:19.760 for

00:53:20.420 every

00:53:20.780 different

00:53:21.220 element

00:53:21.740 of

00:53:22.060 work

00:53:22.980 and

00:53:24.060 how

00:53:24.480 often

00:53:24.780 if

00:53:25.020 I

00:53:25.400 let's

00:53:28.080 say

00:53:28.220 objected

00:53:28.800 to

00:53:29.020 the

00:53:29.300 advice

00:53:29.700 of

00:53:29.840 a

00:53:29.980 lawyer

00:53:30.220 and

00:53:31.100 said

00:53:31.340 I

00:53:31.520 hear

00:53:31.680 what

00:53:31.800 you

00:53:31.900 saying

00:53:32.180 but

00:53:33.560 have

00:53:33.820 you

00:53:33.960 considered

00:53:34.360 this

00:53:34.640 argument

00:53:35.000 and

00:53:35.780 then

00:53:35.920 I

00:53:36.060 talk

00:53:36.420 my

00:53:36.660 lawyer

00:53:36.960 out

00:53:37.320 of

00:53:37.560 whatever

00:53:37.980 the

00:53:38.200 original

00:53:38.580 recommendation

00:53:39.260 was

00:53:39.700 how

00:53:39.860 often

00:53:40.100 does

00:53:40.280 that

00:53:40.460 happen

00:53:40.740 a

00:53:41.840 lot

00:53:42.180 I

00:53:43.260 don't

00:53:43.400 even

00:53:43.560 know

00:53:43.700 how

00:53:43.840 many

00:53:44.000 times

00:53:44.360 it's

00:53:45.060 actually

00:53:45.400 common

00:53:45.920 it's

00:53:46.860 quite

00:53:47.080 common

00:53:47.440 sometimes

00:53:48.020 you

00:53:48.320 just

00:53:48.580 have

00:53:49.660 some

00:53:50.120 insight

00:53:50.820 about

00:53:51.140 how

00:53:51.380 you

00:53:51.660 respond

00:53:52.180 to

00:53:52.380 things

00:53:52.680 that

00:53:52.880 a

00:53:53.280 lawyer

00:53:53.480 can't

00:53:53.860 have

00:53:54.160 sometimes

00:53:54.980 your

00:53:55.500 priorities

00:53:56.540 are

00:53:56.820 different

00:53:57.080 your

00:53:57.340 risk

00:53:57.640 reward

00:53:58.080 ratio

00:53:58.520 is

00:53:58.800 different

00:53:59.100 your

00:53:59.400 tolerance

00:53:59.860 for

00:54:00.100 risk

00:54:00.420 your

00:54:01.040 intuition

00:54:01.520 about

00:54:01.820 something

00:54:02.300 your

00:54:02.640 social

00:54:03.520 preference

00:54:03.980 for

00:54:04.180 something

00:54:04.560 so

00:54:05.180 yeah

00:54:05.420 I

00:54:05.940 talk

00:54:06.460 my

00:54:06.740 lawyers

00:54:07.140 out

00:54:07.340 of

00:54:07.440 stuff

00:54:07.620 all

00:54:07.780 the

00:54:07.920 time

00:54:08.220 has

00:54:09.040 it

00:54:09.160 ever

00:54:09.360 bit

00:54:09.560 me

00:54:09.780 in

00:54:09.940 the

00:54:10.040 ass 0.93

00:54:10.360 not

00:54:11.140 once

00:54:11.500 I

00:54:12.500 talk

00:54:12.700 my

00:54:12.880 doctors

00:54:13.320 out

00:54:13.520 of

00:54:13.620 stuff

00:54:13.840 all

00:54:14.020 the

00:54:14.160 time

00:54:14.380 has

00:54:14.580 it

00:54:14.680 ever

00:54:14.880 bit

00:54:15.120 me

00:54:15.300 in

00:54:15.380 the

00:54:15.460 ass 0.93

00:54:15.660 not

00:54:16.040 once

00:54:16.400 because

00:54:17.240 I

00:54:17.480 always

00:54:17.720 get

00:54:17.920 the

00:54:18.120 lawyer

00:54:18.400 or the

00:54:18.700 doctor

00:54:19.000 to

00:54:19.220 agree

00:54:19.660 before

00:54:20.840 I

00:54:21.040 do

00:54:21.220 it

00:54:21.420 you

00:54:22.400 know

00:54:22.480 I

00:54:22.580 always

00:54:22.780 make

00:54:22.980 sure

00:54:23.180 that

00:54:23.400 I've

00:54:23.600 tested

00:54:23.960 my

00:54:24.240 argument

00:54:24.620 I

00:54:25.280 don't

00:54:25.420 just

00:54:25.620 go

00:54:25.880 rogue

00:54:26.540 and

00:54:26.860 say

00:54:26.980 screw

00:54:28.060 you

00:54:28.400 I'll

00:54:28.600 make

00:54:28.760 my

00:54:28.920 own

00:54:29.060 decisions

00:54:29.500 but

00:54:30.480 yeah

00:54:30.640 you

00:54:30.820 can

00:54:30.960 talk

00:54:31.200 your

00:54:31.480 professionals

00:54:32.360 into

00:54:32.680 stuff

00:54:33.020 if

00:54:33.200 you

00:54:33.260 have

00:54:33.380 a

00:54:33.480 good

00:54:33.600 argument

00:54:33.880 it's

00:54:34.300 common

00:54:34.600 very

00:54:35.340 common

00:54:35.660 all right

00:54:36.680 that's all

00:54:37.400 for now

00:54:37.860 and I

00:54:39.580 will talk

00:54:39.980 to you

00:54:40.360 tonight

00:54:41.320 you know

00:54:42.280 where to

00:54:42.540 find me

00:54:43.000 you

00:54:43.720 you

00:54:44.480 you

00:54:44.980 you

00:54:45.620 you

00:54:45.900 you

00:54:47.800 you

00:54:49.020 you

00:54:49.400 you

00:54:49.860 you

00:54:53.460 you

00:54:55.900 you

00:54:59.040 you

00:55:01.500 you

00:55:01.560 you

00:55:02.220 you

00:55:07.060 you

00:55:10.340 you

00:55:11.220 you

00:55:11.700 you

00:55:11.960 yeah

00:55:12.060 yeah

00:55:12.200 yeah

00:55:12.460 you

00:55:12.940 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 10, 2020

Episode 904 Scott Adams： Today I Blow Your Mind. Goes Well With Coffee

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