Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 960 Scott Adams： Fake News, Bad Math, Bad Mind-Reading, Bad Behavior in the News

00:00:00.000 Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, mum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum.

00:00:11.060 Hey, everybody. Come on in.

00:00:13.600 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:15.980 The best time of the day.

00:00:17.780 Hey, Jack.

00:00:19.100 Good to see you this morning.

00:00:20.880 Good to see all of you.

00:00:23.460 Is that, Marla, thanks for the superheart.

00:00:26.900 I appreciate it.

00:00:27.740 and I know many of you are already prepared

00:00:30.980 some of you

00:00:32.140 such as Joel

00:00:33.900 is jogging on the beach right now

00:00:36.160 and cannot join us for the simultaneous sip

00:00:38.260 but

00:00:39.520 many of you are prepared

00:00:41.560 and all you need is

00:00:42.720 a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or a chalice of stein

00:00:48.220 a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind

00:00:50.280 fill it with your favorite liquid

00:00:52.520 I like coffee

00:00:54.020 and join me now

00:00:56.140 for the unparalleled pleasure

00:00:57.660 the dopamine hit of the day

00:00:59.020 the thing that makes everything better

00:01:00.940 including the damn pandemic

00:01:02.440 it's called the simultaneous sip

00:01:04.100 happens right now

00:01:05.840 go

00:01:06.540 I feel the fake news fading away

00:01:15.080 the veil is lifted from my eyes

00:01:18.120 yeah

00:01:19.300 so let's talk about a few things

00:01:23.580 so as you know

00:01:25.940 the drug remdesivir

00:01:28.060 has reportedly shown some promise

00:01:31.900 in reducing virus

00:01:35.260 but there's no report

00:01:37.800 or no evidence that it reduces death rate

00:01:40.300 but we're still pretty darn excited about this drug

00:01:44.240 that doesn't change the death rate

00:01:47.540 but I wonder how much would this drug cost

00:01:50.620 well the estimate I saw

00:01:52.120 I don't know if this is still the case

00:01:54.340 would be a thousand dollars per patient

00:01:57.620 so a thousand dollars for remdesivir

00:02:02.300 you know I wonder if that's enough money

00:02:04.380 that it would just potentially corrupt the system

00:02:09.380 is that is that much

00:02:11.280 a thousand dollars per customer

00:02:13.160 times all the people who would need a vaccination

00:02:17.220 7.6 billion people in the world

00:02:20.960 but you don't need to vaccinate them all

00:02:22.740 let's say

00:02:23.380 I don't know

00:02:24.900 let's say you do

00:02:26.340 4 billion

00:02:28.180 let's say you vaccinate 4 billion

00:02:30.960 how much profit

00:02:33.780 well not profit

00:02:34.920 but how much gross revenue is that

00:02:36.920 if you vaccinate 4 billion people

00:02:39.740 at a thousand dollars a piece

00:02:42.460 well let me do the math for you

00:02:46.080 or actually

00:02:47.720 allow me to have someone do the math

00:02:50.160 for me

00:02:51.260 Alexa

00:02:53.200 what is 4 billion times a thousand

00:02:56.120 4 billion times 1 thousand is 4 trillion

00:03:00.720 4 trillion dollars

00:03:06.440 4 trillion dollars

00:03:12.240 has there ever been any product

00:03:14.460 or any company

00:03:15.380 that ever sold one thing

00:03:17.600 and made 4 trillion dollars

00:03:23.580 in the first year

00:03:26.520 now if you were on the brink of making

00:03:30.580 4 trillion dollars

00:03:35.360 oh yes

00:03:37.440 thank you

00:03:38.520 it's not a vaccine

00:03:39.460 but one assumes that

00:03:42.060 many people would take it if it works

00:03:44.260 so it's not a vaccine

00:03:45.440 that's correct

00:03:46.080 so

00:03:49.640 could we worry

00:03:51.080 that maybe our

00:03:52.160 I don't know

00:03:53.100 science could be influenced

00:03:54.940 by

00:03:55.380 4 trillion dollars

00:03:58.580 and somebody says

00:04:00.900 well Bill Gates is just an angel

00:04:02.480 right

00:04:02.820 I'm blocking you

00:04:03.660 from being an idiot

00:04:04.400 alright

00:04:05.820 I'm just going to block

00:04:06.640 all the people

00:04:07.200 who think that Bill Gates

00:04:08.240 is the devil

00:04:08.800 because

00:04:09.620 I've reached the end

00:04:11.280 of that stupidity

00:04:13.060 if you're so fucking stupid

00:04:14.800 that you think Bill Gates

00:04:16.180 is in it for the money

00:04:17.100 please don't follow me

00:04:18.840 please

00:04:20.100 I don't know what

00:04:22.340 you know

00:04:23.160 I can't read Bill Gates' mind

00:04:24.900 but he's not in it

00:04:26.540 for the money

00:04:27.200 I'm going to block

00:04:28.500 anybody who suggests that

00:04:29.800 you just aren't smart enough

00:04:31.120 to follow any of this

00:04:32.200 if you think that's the case

00:04:33.860 alright

00:04:35.040 sorry

00:04:37.060 in the news

00:04:39.240 on Fox News

00:04:40.180 it says that

00:04:40.920 Schiff

00:04:42.800 is panicked

00:04:43.800 he's panicked

00:04:45.040 about the transcripts

00:04:46.180 so the interviews

00:04:46.960 the interviews

00:04:48.120 about the

00:04:48.940 so called

00:04:50.820 Russia collusion

00:04:51.940 situation

00:04:52.700 that turned out

00:04:53.320 to be nothing

00:04:53.720 now the interview

00:04:55.720 transcripts

00:04:56.680 are available

00:04:57.200 I guess they've been around

00:04:58.520 for a while

00:04:59.020 but now they're talking

00:04:59.920 about releasing them

00:05:00.800 and Adam Schiff

00:05:02.240 has decided

00:05:02.860 maybe not

00:05:04.000 maybe not release them

00:05:05.260 because apparently

00:05:06.680 what they show

00:05:07.720 very clearly

00:05:08.980 is that the

00:05:11.180 FBI knew

00:05:13.260 there was no basis

00:05:14.240 for going after

00:05:14.960 Carter Page

00:05:15.860 because the

00:05:17.460 Steele dossier

00:05:18.680 was the basis

00:05:19.700 and they already knew

00:05:21.120 it was debunked

00:05:22.180 so apparently

00:05:23.960 the

00:05:24.380 the record

00:05:25.900 is unambiguous

00:05:28.080 that it was a coup attempt

00:05:30.000 now

00:05:31.320 it doesn't say that

00:05:32.700 but what would you call it

00:05:34.580 when people are trying

00:05:36.200 to use non-legal means

00:05:37.860 to remove a sitting president

00:05:39.500 I don't know what else

00:05:41.380 you call it

00:05:42.000 but that's what happened

00:05:44.080 anyway

00:05:45.000 so

00:05:46.060 as Jake Novak

00:05:49.340 pointed out

00:05:51.160 on Twitter

00:05:52.360 that I always call out

00:05:54.840 when the left

00:05:55.620 mind reads

00:05:56.900 and they act like

00:05:58.120 they know it's in

00:05:58.840 Trump's mind

00:05:59.580 or they know it's

00:06:00.180 in anybody's mind

00:06:01.120 and so it would be

00:06:03.060 fair to call it out

00:06:04.000 when it happens

00:06:04.700 on the other side

00:06:05.600 and let me do that

00:06:07.400 as Jake pointed out

00:06:09.080 we don't know

00:06:10.640 if Schiff is panicked

00:06:11.900 what kind of reporting

00:06:13.880 is that

00:06:14.560 unless Schiff

00:06:16.120 says he's panicked

00:06:17.600 or

00:06:19.140 we hooked him up

00:06:20.500 to an EKG

00:06:21.420 or something

00:06:22.000 so we could

00:06:22.680 find out

00:06:23.760 that he's panicked

00:06:24.600 what basis

00:06:26.340 do we report

00:06:27.360 that Schiff

00:06:28.040 is panicked

00:06:28.760 ridiculous

00:06:30.080 now

00:06:31.260 a reasonable person

00:06:32.820 could say

00:06:33.280 well he would be

00:06:34.120 concerned about this

00:06:35.040 yeah

00:06:35.400 yeah

00:06:36.440 but I mean

00:06:37.400 they all play

00:06:38.280 a pretty high risk

00:06:39.260 kind of a game

00:06:40.620 I don't think

00:06:42.400 there's evidence

00:06:42.920 that he panicked

00:06:43.840 so let's not say that

00:06:45.140 here's some

00:06:48.100 here's some bullshit

00:06:48.940 for you

00:06:49.520 usually you're going

00:06:50.940 to see more and more

00:06:51.620 articles about how

00:06:52.600 the economy is the worst

00:06:53.940 since the 1930s

00:06:55.680 you know

00:06:56.720 the worst since

00:06:57.540 the Great Depression

00:06:58.340 this is all ridiculous

00:07:01.080 it's all ridiculous

00:07:02.620 here's what didn't

00:07:04.280 happen in the

00:07:05.100 Great Depression

00:07:05.800 60% of the public

00:07:08.740 making money

00:07:09.580 because I think

00:07:11.260 that's what just

00:07:11.860 happened

00:07:12.220 I think 40%

00:07:13.860 of us

00:07:14.320 and I'm in the

00:07:15.140 category of

00:07:15.840 people who

00:07:16.720 got hit bad

00:07:17.560 by the coronavirus

00:07:18.620 my income

00:07:19.920 will probably

00:07:20.420 drop 90%

00:07:21.520 this year

00:07:22.040 but

00:07:23.020 yeah

00:07:23.980 I'm not asking

00:07:24.600 for sympathy

00:07:25.080 I'm just telling you

00:07:25.980 a fact

00:07:26.340 probably 40%

00:07:27.600 of us

00:07:27.960 took a hit

00:07:28.640 but there's a good

00:07:30.360 solid 60%

00:07:31.900 who made money

00:07:32.860 that didn't happen

00:07:34.720 in the Depression

00:07:35.460 all the people

00:07:36.600 who made money

00:07:37.300 still want to

00:07:38.420 spend it

00:07:38.960 and they've got

00:07:40.040 more than they had

00:07:40.760 before when we go

00:07:41.640 back to work

00:07:42.180 so all these

00:07:43.200 comparisons to the

00:07:44.180 Depression

00:07:44.600 where basically

00:07:45.880 the entire world

00:07:47.040 went down

00:07:47.600 it's so

00:07:49.320 inappropriate

00:07:49.960 if 60%

00:07:51.280 of the people

00:07:51.680 made money

00:07:52.340 40%

00:07:53.360 lost

00:07:53.860 that really

00:07:56.040 speaks to a

00:07:56.780 quick recovery

00:07:57.520 now the

00:07:58.680 real wild card

00:07:59.660 is whether

00:08:00.200 people will

00:08:00.820 go back

00:08:01.260 into stores

00:08:02.060 and restaurants

00:08:03.220 and stuff

00:08:03.660 that's going

00:08:04.140 to be

00:08:04.500 pretty iffy

00:08:05.640 for a while

00:08:06.160 but certainly

00:08:06.920 buying products

00:08:07.960 they got the

00:08:09.000 money and they

00:08:09.480 want to buy

00:08:09.840 them

00:08:10.020 alright

00:08:10.860 can you believe

00:08:15.400 that in this

00:08:16.120 most basic

00:08:17.000 question

00:08:17.520 the experts

00:08:18.180 still don't

00:08:19.000 agree

00:08:19.460 which is

00:08:20.760 is it safe

00:08:21.420 for kids

00:08:21.920 to go back

00:08:22.560 to school

00:08:23.080 you can add

00:08:24.580 this question

00:08:25.260 to the long

00:08:26.380 list of very

00:08:27.100 basic

00:08:27.680 seemingly basic

00:08:28.920 questions

00:08:29.480 that our best

00:08:30.780 experts

00:08:31.300 don't know

00:08:32.700 got it wrong

00:08:33.720 or they disagree

00:08:34.760 what the hell

00:08:36.140 good are our

00:08:36.700 experts

00:08:37.140 I mean this is

00:08:37.980 a pretty basic

00:08:38.480 question

00:08:38.920 is it safe

00:08:39.660 for kids

00:08:40.060 to go back

00:08:40.780 so some

00:08:42.280 people say

00:08:42.920 well kids

00:08:43.600 don't get it

00:08:44.280 they probably

00:08:44.780 don't spread

00:08:45.340 it much

00:08:45.860 it's a low

00:08:46.900 risk

00:08:47.340 go ahead

00:08:47.960 send them

00:08:48.360 back

00:08:48.720 there's some

00:08:49.580 other study

00:08:50.320 that says

00:08:50.920 that that

00:08:51.880 causes spread

00:08:52.920 of course

00:08:54.500 it would

00:08:55.020 who's right

00:08:56.660 I don't know

00:08:57.660 I guess we

00:08:58.380 can't ask

00:08:58.820 the experts

00:08:59.440 because they

00:08:59.840 disagree

00:09:00.260 I tweeted

00:09:02.940 out an

00:09:03.480 article on

00:09:04.420 advertising

00:09:06.320 on the

00:09:06.760 internet

00:09:07.040 and I

00:09:08.320 wondered how

00:09:08.820 many people

00:09:09.320 already knew

00:09:10.140 this

00:09:10.540 so in

00:09:11.400 the comments

00:09:11.880 tell me

00:09:12.280 if you

00:09:12.540 knew this

00:09:13.020 did you

00:09:14.200 know that

00:09:14.620 advertising

00:09:15.200 is not

00:09:15.720 real

00:09:16.080 that it

00:09:17.780 doesn't

00:09:18.080 work

00:09:18.460 how many

00:09:20.100 of you

00:09:20.340 knew that

00:09:20.920 because we

00:09:22.380 live in a

00:09:22.780 world that's

00:09:23.300 driven by

00:09:24.140 advertisement

00:09:24.620 all of our

00:09:25.140 media

00:09:25.500 the internet

00:09:26.240 it's all

00:09:26.680 advertising

00:09:27.140 based

00:09:27.540 but did you

00:09:28.440 know it's

00:09:28.720 all bullshit

00:09:29.160 I'm going to

00:09:31.420 modify all

00:09:32.240 so I'm going to

00:09:33.200 say mostly

00:09:33.800 and then I'll

00:09:34.600 go back to

00:09:35.120 some special

00:09:35.700 cases where it's

00:09:36.500 not

00:09:36.760 yeah some

00:09:37.900 of you

00:09:38.120 did

00:09:38.320 here's how

00:09:39.060 I found

00:09:39.540 out

00:09:40.340 the way I

00:09:41.700 found out

00:09:42.240 that advertising

00:09:43.040 isn't even a

00:09:43.800 real thing

00:09:44.260 is I advertised

00:09:45.700 you should try

00:09:47.360 it sometime

00:09:47.840 whatever your

00:09:49.380 product is

00:09:50.080 or you can

00:09:50.600 even just try

00:09:51.120 an experiment

00:09:52.100 try advertising

00:09:53.760 anything

00:09:54.340 it won't make

00:09:56.060 any difference

00:09:56.720 I've advertised

00:09:58.100 restaurants

00:09:58.980 I've done

00:10:00.160 radio

00:10:01.120 print

00:10:01.980 I've done

00:10:03.100 every kind

00:10:03.520 of advertising

00:10:04.100 that you

00:10:04.480 could do

00:10:04.980 didn't make

00:10:06.460 one dime

00:10:07.800 of difference

00:10:08.460 likewise for

00:10:10.700 startups

00:10:11.380 etc

00:10:11.880 done advertising

00:10:13.440 didn't make

00:10:15.300 any difference

00:10:16.800 now the

00:10:18.520 exception is

00:10:19.360 if there's

00:10:20.180 something that

00:10:20.660 somebody doesn't

00:10:21.340 know exists

00:10:22.180 but they know

00:10:23.280 they have a

00:10:23.760 need for it

00:10:24.400 then you're

00:10:25.300 telling them

00:10:25.840 about it

00:10:26.220 for the first

00:10:26.740 time

00:10:27.160 if you tell

00:10:28.360 somebody about

00:10:28.940 something for

00:10:29.440 the first time

00:10:30.120 and they want

00:10:30.540 it then it

00:10:30.860 can work

00:10:31.240 of course

00:10:31.740 but

00:10:32.840 they're not

00:10:35.060 necessarily going

00:10:35.780 to find it

00:10:36.220 with a search

00:10:36.760 engine

00:10:37.100 that's harder

00:10:38.720 so the kind

00:10:39.740 of advertisement

00:10:40.340 that doesn't

00:10:41.240 work

00:10:41.660 is brand

00:10:43.020 advertisement

00:10:43.660 especially

00:10:44.240 and the

00:10:46.020 article that I

00:10:47.240 tweeted around

00:10:47.680 this morning

00:10:48.120 gives a perfect

00:10:49.360 example of that

00:10:50.300 it talks about

00:10:51.640 somebody who

00:10:52.600 understood

00:10:53.020 statistics and

00:10:54.580 stuff coming

00:10:55.140 into this world

00:10:56.020 and thinking

00:10:57.280 to himself

00:10:57.860 am I crazy

00:10:58.800 because it

00:11:00.040 looks like

00:11:00.600 none of this

00:11:01.360 was real

00:11:01.960 and yet

00:11:02.940 everybody's

00:11:03.540 pretending

00:11:03.960 it's real

00:11:04.500 and that

00:11:04.900 our giant

00:11:05.640 platforms all

00:11:07.100 depend on

00:11:07.600 selling it to

00:11:08.240 people who

00:11:08.620 think it's

00:11:08.960 real

00:11:09.220 and this

00:11:10.200 guy said

00:11:10.780 well why

00:11:12.140 do you think

00:11:12.540 it's real

00:11:13.060 and they

00:11:14.120 would say

00:11:14.380 well look

00:11:14.900 we ran

00:11:15.500 this ad

00:11:16.080 let's say

00:11:17.200 it was

00:11:17.420 eBay

00:11:17.780 because he

00:11:18.200 used them

00:11:18.520 for an

00:11:18.780 example

00:11:19.080 we ran

00:11:19.920 an ad

00:11:20.220 for eBay

00:11:20.640 and then

00:11:21.800 you look

00:11:22.140 at all the

00:11:22.480 people who

00:11:22.900 clicked on

00:11:23.300 the ad

00:11:23.760 and then

00:11:24.980 you can

00:11:25.340 tell that

00:11:25.700 they bought

00:11:26.080 a bunch

00:11:26.360 of stuff

00:11:26.860 it's obvious

00:11:28.200 we run

00:11:29.280 an ad

00:11:29.760 people click

00:11:30.400 on it

00:11:30.720 then they

00:11:31.080 buy

00:11:31.400 and the

00:11:32.240 economist

00:11:32.660 says

00:11:33.260 how many

00:11:34.220 of those

00:11:34.480 people were

00:11:34.980 going to

00:11:35.220 buy

00:11:35.460 anyway

00:11:35.860 and they

00:11:37.620 say well

00:11:38.100 we don't

00:11:39.180 know

00:11:39.360 but they

00:11:39.760 click the

00:11:40.920 ad

00:11:41.320 and then

00:11:41.620 they bought

00:11:42.180 so the

00:11:44.100 ads work

00:11:44.720 and so the

00:11:45.980 economist

00:11:46.360 said

00:11:46.680 why don't

00:11:47.400 we try

00:11:47.760 this experiment

00:11:48.640 because the

00:11:49.980 ad that

00:11:50.360 people are

00:11:50.760 clicking on

00:11:51.460 shows up

00:11:52.800 in the

00:11:53.200 search

00:11:53.620 directly

00:11:54.940 above

00:11:55.500 the

00:11:56.460 organic

00:11:56.920 search

00:11:57.380 the one

00:11:57.740 nobody

00:11:58.040 paid

00:11:58.280 for

00:11:58.540 if you

00:11:59.620 were

00:11:59.760 searching

00:12:00.160 for

00:12:00.480 eBay

00:12:00.880 by name

00:12:02.520 you typed

00:12:03.520 in

00:12:03.760 eBay

00:12:04.340 the thing

00:12:05.700 that comes

00:12:06.040 up at the

00:12:06.500 top

00:12:06.880 is the

00:12:07.220 advertisement

00:12:07.740 that takes

00:12:09.800 you to

00:12:10.040 eBay

00:12:10.280 the one

00:12:11.600 right below

00:12:12.120 it that

00:12:12.540 didn't cost

00:12:13.040 you a

00:12:13.360 dime

00:12:13.680 is the

00:12:15.820 organic

00:12:16.200 search

00:12:16.600 and also

00:12:17.360 takes you

00:12:17.840 to eBay

00:12:18.220 and now

00:12:19.600 what do

00:12:19.860 people

00:12:20.100 click

00:12:20.520 they click

00:12:21.540 the one

00:12:21.860 on the

00:12:22.120 top

00:12:22.460 so the

00:12:23.880 economist

00:12:24.300 said

00:12:24.640 why don't

00:12:25.320 we try

00:12:25.740 this

00:12:26.240 why don't

00:12:27.200 we try

00:12:27.540 picking some

00:12:28.180 regions

00:12:28.660 of the

00:12:29.340 country

00:12:29.720 and not

00:12:30.660 advertising

00:12:31.240 on those

00:12:31.920 and just

00:12:32.760 see if it

00:12:33.300 compares

00:12:33.720 so they

00:12:34.880 did that

00:12:35.320 what do you

00:12:35.660 think the

00:12:35.980 answer was

00:12:36.580 the advertising

00:12:38.100 made no

00:12:38.540 difference

00:12:38.960 so

00:12:39.800 eBay was

00:12:41.040 paying

00:12:41.640 20

00:12:42.240 whatever

00:12:42.560 million

00:12:42.940 dollars

00:12:43.260 a year

00:12:43.520 for these

00:12:43.880 ads

00:12:44.220 and

00:12:45.140 in

00:12:45.860 one

00:12:46.480 day

00:12:46.860 in

00:12:48.320 a

00:12:48.480 very

00:12:48.740 easy

00:12:49.060 test

00:12:49.460 he

00:12:49.660 showed

00:12:49.880 that

00:12:50.040 they

00:12:50.160 had

00:12:50.280 no

00:12:50.440 value

00:12:50.800 and

00:12:52.120 but

00:12:52.720 the

00:12:52.920 his

00:12:53.400 other

00:12:53.620 examples

00:12:54.100 of people

00:12:54.500 who

00:12:54.660 seem

00:12:54.860 to

00:12:55.040 know

00:12:55.460 that

00:12:56.300 advertising

00:12:56.900 doesn't

00:12:57.400 work

00:12:57.880 but they

00:12:59.120 still do

00:12:59.880 it

00:13:00.100 and you

00:13:00.760 say to

00:13:01.040 yourself

00:13:01.340 okay

00:13:02.520 I'm

00:13:02.980 confused

00:13:03.700 are you

00:13:04.600 telling me

00:13:04.980 that everybody

00:13:05.440 knows it

00:13:06.000 doesn't

00:13:06.380 work

00:13:06.960 but they

00:13:08.220 still do

00:13:08.640 it

00:13:08.880 what

00:13:10.600 exactly

00:13:11.300 is behind

00:13:12.140 that

00:13:12.560 and he

00:13:13.580 explained

00:13:14.040 it

00:13:14.200 in a

00:13:14.420 way

00:13:14.540 that

00:13:14.740 I

00:13:14.940 already

00:13:15.240 understood

00:13:15.740 as the

00:13:16.560 creator

00:13:18.260 of

00:13:18.560 Dilbert

00:13:18.940 and having

00:13:19.620 spent a lot

00:13:20.320 of time

00:13:20.700 in big

00:13:21.860 companies

00:13:22.240 and done

00:13:22.640 a lot

00:13:22.820 of advertising

00:13:23.360 myself

00:13:23.800 I knew

00:13:24.500 the answer

00:13:24.940 to this

00:13:25.320 but it

00:13:25.580 was funny

00:13:25.980 watching him

00:13:26.680 sort of

00:13:27.660 discover it

00:13:28.360 and it

00:13:28.840 goes like

00:13:29.220 this

00:13:29.600 the marketing

00:13:30.820 department

00:13:31.360 in your

00:13:31.980 big

00:13:32.240 company

00:13:32.640 isn't

00:13:34.220 just

00:13:34.620 marketing

00:13:35.200 externally

00:13:35.940 they're

00:13:37.140 also

00:13:37.440 marketing

00:13:37.960 themselves

00:13:38.640 and what

00:13:39.740 the marketing

00:13:40.240 department

00:13:40.720 in your

00:13:41.220 big

00:13:41.460 company

00:13:41.820 wants

00:13:42.280 is the

00:13:43.060 biggest

00:13:43.360 possible

00:13:44.000 budget

00:13:44.560 because that

00:13:45.740 makes them

00:13:46.220 more important

00:13:46.760 it's good

00:13:47.180 for their

00:13:47.500 careers

00:13:47.980 they want

00:13:48.760 to manage

00:13:49.260 the biggest

00:13:49.720 possible

00:13:50.260 thing

00:13:50.660 so when

00:13:51.920 they go

00:13:52.260 into their

00:13:52.680 senior

00:13:52.960 management

00:13:53.460 do they

00:13:54.200 say

00:13:54.560 advertisement

00:13:55.600 doesn't

00:13:56.060 work

00:13:56.460 no

00:13:57.880 they say

00:13:59.140 you need

00:13:59.560 the biggest

00:14:00.100 advertisement

00:14:00.740 budget

00:14:01.320 you could

00:14:01.700 possibly

00:14:02.200 get

00:14:02.580 and then

00:14:03.460 they get

00:14:03.820 that

00:14:04.180 and then

00:14:05.200 the boss

00:14:05.640 is going

00:14:05.920 to ask

00:14:06.220 them

00:14:06.380 did it

00:14:06.700 work

00:14:07.080 and what

00:14:08.120 are they

00:14:08.340 going to

00:14:08.540 do

00:14:08.800 they're

00:14:09.800 going to

00:14:09.960 show them

00:14:10.540 how many

00:14:11.000 people clicked

00:14:11.640 on the

00:14:11.920 advertisement

00:14:12.440 and how

00:14:13.620 much they

00:14:14.080 bought

00:14:14.500 and they're

00:14:15.360 going to

00:14:15.580 say look

00:14:16.120 at all that

00:14:16.560 extra stuff

00:14:17.220 people bought

00:14:17.960 and it's all

00:14:19.760 not real

00:14:20.640 now somebody

00:14:22.260 says

00:14:22.540 I'm seeing

00:14:24.300 a lot of

00:14:24.820 people mention

00:14:25.420 my pillow

00:14:26.080 my pillow

00:14:27.420 is a special

00:14:28.340 case

00:14:28.880 and I'll tell

00:14:30.340 you why

00:14:30.760 number one

00:14:31.460 did you know

00:14:32.320 there was such

00:14:32.840 a thing as

00:14:33.360 an improved

00:14:33.900 pillow

00:14:34.280 so it's the

00:14:35.560 perfect example

00:14:36.860 of

00:14:38.040 something

00:14:39.380 that

00:14:39.820 can be

00:14:40.680 advertised

00:14:41.220 because you

00:14:41.980 didn't know

00:14:42.300 it existed

00:14:42.860 I thought

00:14:43.900 a pillow

00:14:44.180 was a

00:14:44.520 pillow

00:14:44.740 but there's

00:14:45.340 a better

00:14:45.620 one

00:14:45.860 okay

00:14:46.300 now

00:14:47.220 once you

00:14:48.300 know it

00:14:48.680 exists

00:14:49.420 then your

00:14:50.600 next question

00:14:51.160 should be

00:14:51.600 but Scott

00:14:52.060 I know

00:14:52.400 it exists

00:14:52.980 now that I

00:14:54.120 know it

00:14:54.400 exists

00:14:54.780 what good

00:14:55.580 is the

00:14:55.900 extra

00:14:56.340 advertising

00:14:57.020 well

00:14:58.220 here's what

00:14:59.340 good it

00:14:59.660 is

00:15:00.140 Mike

00:15:01.980 Klandell

00:15:02.500 is not

00:15:03.020 like an

00:15:03.460 average

00:15:03.980 advertiser

00:15:04.800 what he

00:15:05.820 does

00:15:06.260 is so

00:15:06.800 darn

00:15:07.200 persuasive

00:15:07.860 that you

00:15:09.260 can't compare

00:15:09.940 it to a

00:15:10.500 written ad

00:15:11.240 on the

00:15:11.580 internet

00:15:11.940 right

00:15:12.640 listening to

00:15:13.740 him do

00:15:14.080 his real

00:15:14.540 thing

00:15:14.940 and over

00:15:15.560 and over

00:15:15.900 again

00:15:16.300 and showing

00:15:16.780 you examples

00:15:17.400 and here

00:15:18.200 are the

00:15:18.400 people using

00:15:19.020 it and

00:15:19.380 here's my

00:15:19.840 graph

00:15:20.380 and you

00:15:21.100 know

00:15:21.300 and his

00:15:22.020 funny stories

00:15:22.720 and stuff

00:15:23.180 in a way

00:15:24.460 he's selling

00:15:25.060 himself

00:15:25.680 wouldn't you

00:15:27.160 say

00:15:27.440 Mike Klandell

00:15:28.780 is sort of

00:15:29.320 selling himself

00:15:30.100 and you

00:15:32.120 didn't know

00:15:32.480 you needed

00:15:32.840 him did

00:15:33.280 you

00:15:33.460 so that's

00:15:34.740 the part

00:15:35.000 you weren't

00:15:35.340 looking for

00:15:35.880 were you

00:15:36.820 looking to

00:15:37.360 find Mike

00:15:37.860 Klandell

00:15:38.260 no you

00:15:39.060 weren't

00:15:39.420 but you

00:15:40.220 did

00:15:40.540 so now

00:15:41.460 you found

00:15:41.880 him

00:15:42.160 and he's

00:15:43.400 you know

00:15:43.920 he gives

00:15:44.540 his made

00:15:45.860 in America

00:15:46.420 stuff

00:15:46.960 and people

00:15:49.100 like him

00:15:49.620 so you

00:15:50.800 like Mike

00:15:51.420 Klandell

00:15:51.860 and then you

00:15:53.040 say well

00:15:53.960 I can always

00:15:54.880 use a better

00:15:55.400 pillow

00:15:55.720 and then

00:15:57.240 suddenly that

00:15:57.900 works

00:15:58.180 so in the

00:15:59.520 special cases

00:16:00.540 that's that

00:16:02.820 I can tell

00:16:03.200 you why

00:16:03.600 the normal

00:16:04.100 cases don't

00:16:04.820 work

00:16:05.240 all right

00:16:06.140 so if you

00:16:06.600 just put a

00:16:07.120 little print

00:16:07.640 ad on

00:16:08.200 Google

00:16:08.540 you know

00:16:09.320 buy my

00:16:09.760 stuff

00:16:10.140 you're not

00:16:11.040 Mike Klandell

00:16:11.720 they don't

00:16:12.740 know you

00:16:13.220 they don't

00:16:13.580 care about

00:16:14.060 you

00:16:14.260 they didn't

00:16:14.660 fall in

00:16:15.060 love with

00:16:15.400 you

00:16:15.680 they weren't

00:16:16.180 interested in

00:16:16.780 your story

00:16:17.340 about how you

00:16:17.900 came from

00:16:18.780 nothing

00:16:19.080 they don't

00:16:19.460 care if it's

00:16:19.980 built in

00:16:20.340 America

00:16:20.680 none of that's

00:16:21.300 there

00:16:21.520 but if you

00:16:22.960 can go full

00:16:23.760 Mike Klandell

00:16:24.660 yeah I would

00:16:26.460 think in his

00:16:26.920 case advertising

00:16:27.500 works

00:16:28.100 all right

00:16:30.140 but yeah

00:16:33.220 so the reason

00:16:33.780 is the internal

00:16:34.480 marketing departments

00:16:35.480 are lying to

00:16:36.360 their management

00:16:36.960 because it's

00:16:38.460 good for their

00:16:38.940 careers

00:16:39.280 and then

00:16:40.240 then they give

00:16:40.940 the management

00:16:41.440 these fake

00:16:42.120 numbers to say

00:16:42.860 it works

00:16:43.300 and then what

00:16:44.460 does the CEO

00:16:45.120 do with that

00:16:46.400 suppose the

00:16:47.760 CEO doesn't

00:16:48.720 believe it

00:16:49.300 suppose the

00:16:51.080 CEO says

00:16:52.000 you know

00:16:52.560 they would have

00:16:53.980 bought this

00:16:54.320 much anyway

00:16:54.840 I don't think

00:16:55.320 you did

00:16:55.640 anything

00:16:56.020 would the

00:16:57.220 CEO say

00:16:57.900 that

00:16:58.320 or would

00:16:59.500 the CEO

00:17:00.020 say

00:17:00.500 as all

00:17:01.840 CEOs do

00:17:02.680 well

00:17:03.700 it looks

00:17:04.240 under my

00:17:04.720 management

00:17:05.800 we went

00:17:06.400 up this

00:17:06.820 much

00:17:07.160 it's because

00:17:07.720 of all the

00:17:08.200 good things

00:17:08.640 we did

00:17:09.120 our

00:17:09.860 marketing's

00:17:10.560 firing on

00:17:11.080 all cylinders

00:17:11.740 our products

00:17:12.520 are good

00:17:12.960 no the

00:17:13.620 CEO is

00:17:14.060 going to

00:17:14.280 take it

00:17:14.720 because it

00:17:15.460 makes the

00:17:15.800 CEO look

00:17:16.420 like

00:17:16.760 you know

00:17:19.300 makes the

00:17:19.680 CEO look

00:17:21.120 like they

00:17:21.460 did their

00:17:21.860 job as

00:17:22.360 well

00:17:22.600 so it's

00:17:23.560 this weird

00:17:24.000 little fiction

00:17:24.780 that companies

00:17:26.140 run that

00:17:26.940 advertising works

00:17:28.000 and again

00:17:28.840 it does work

00:17:29.600 in the special

00:17:30.140 cases but I'm

00:17:31.140 talking about

00:17:31.540 the general

00:17:31.940 cases

00:17:32.360 all right

00:17:33.480 keep that in

00:17:36.200 mind when

00:17:37.480 you're looking

00:17:38.040 at stories

00:17:38.620 such as the

00:17:39.700 number of

00:17:40.440 test kits

00:17:41.880 that will be

00:17:42.520 available

00:17:43.000 you know I

00:17:44.040 told you

00:17:44.440 no everybody's

00:17:45.220 lying about

00:17:45.760 that all the

00:17:47.100 companies are

00:17:47.620 lying because

00:17:48.240 why wouldn't

00:17:48.720 they of course

00:17:49.920 they would

00:17:50.220 lie

00:17:50.500 all right

00:17:55.380 see what

00:17:55.860 else we

00:17:56.200 got

00:17:56.440 there was

00:17:58.840 a great

00:17:59.700 line written

00:18:00.760 by Tim

00:18:01.360 Graham who

00:18:02.200 wrote on

00:18:02.600 the Fox

00:18:03.020 News site

00:18:03.580 and I'm

00:18:04.260 only I'm

00:18:04.680 only going to

00:18:05.040 repeat this

00:18:05.600 because I

00:18:06.200 loved the

00:18:07.580 way he put

00:18:08.480 the sentences

00:18:09.100 together all

00:18:10.040 right so just

00:18:10.520 enjoy this for

00:18:11.360 the writing

00:18:11.880 it's not even

00:18:12.840 any bigger

00:18:13.300 point than

00:18:13.820 that he

00:18:14.820 says a

00:18:15.660 press conference

00:18:16.540 for Trump

00:18:17.240 has the

00:18:17.920 feel of

00:18:18.500 diving into

00:18:19.200 a tank of

00:18:19.940 hungry sharks

00:18:20.940 a press

00:18:21.900 conference for

00:18:22.600 Hillary Clinton

00:18:23.760 or Joe

00:18:24.360 Biden carries

00:18:25.700 the vibe of

00:18:26.560 getting free

00:18:27.200 pizza and

00:18:27.900 game tokens

00:18:28.680 at Chuck E

00:18:29.300 Cheese

00:18:29.720 Biden's

00:18:33.620 virtual press

00:18:34.660 conference

00:18:35.140 April 2nd

00:18:35.940 only lasted

00:18:36.580 20 minutes

00:18:37.380 and he

00:18:38.220 jabbered for

00:18:39.020 seven minutes

00:18:39.720 before he

00:18:40.260 took his

00:18:41.200 first question

00:18:42.060 blah blah

00:18:43.820 blah so

00:18:44.820 here's what I

00:18:45.720 loved about

00:18:46.220 it the

00:18:46.700 it has the

00:18:47.600 vibe of

00:18:48.060 getting free

00:18:48.580 pizza and

00:18:49.100 game tokens

00:18:49.760 at Chuck

00:18:50.260 E.

00:18:50.440 Cheese

00:18:50.760 you know

00:18:51.920 I've told

00:18:52.260 you before

00:18:52.720 that we're

00:18:53.140 visual people

00:18:54.000 so this is

00:18:55.580 such visual

00:18:56.260 writing

00:18:56.720 you know

00:18:57.520 a Trump

00:18:59.180 Trump event

00:19:01.240 feels like

00:19:01.960 jumping into

00:19:02.980 a tank of

00:19:04.180 hungry sharks

00:19:04.980 like you can

00:19:06.080 see it right

00:19:06.700 you can almost

00:19:07.840 see the press

00:19:08.440 conference

00:19:08.960 you can sort

00:19:10.140 of see him

00:19:10.560 jumping into

00:19:11.080 the shark

00:19:11.500 tank

00:19:11.800 it's like so

00:19:12.340 visual

00:19:12.720 and then

00:19:14.060 just the same

00:19:15.100 thing about

00:19:15.620 it's like getting

00:19:16.760 pizza and game

00:19:17.660 tokens at

00:19:18.320 Chuck E.

00:19:18.740 Cheese

00:19:19.000 because you've

00:19:20.200 got the

00:19:20.480 pizza you

00:19:21.140 see it

00:19:21.600 you've got

00:19:22.340 the game

00:19:22.740 tokens you

00:19:23.340 see it

00:19:23.760 and then

00:19:24.500 there's the

00:19:24.960 Chuck E.

00:19:25.320 Cheese you

00:19:25.680 see it

00:19:26.120 and then you

00:19:26.560 build the

00:19:26.980 story in

00:19:27.420 your head

00:19:27.860 it's brilliant

00:19:29.220 writing it's

00:19:30.040 really good

00:19:30.520 and then in the

00:19:31.280 second part

00:19:31.780 they read

00:19:32.220 he uses the

00:19:33.740 word jabbered

00:19:34.560 he jabbered

00:19:35.380 for seven

00:19:35.780 minutes

00:19:36.140 now of course

00:19:37.220 this is you

00:19:38.000 know highly

00:19:38.480 highly biased

00:19:41.020 political writing

00:19:42.760 but you know

00:19:43.800 it's on Fox

00:19:44.420 News you expect

00:19:45.200 that in the

00:19:45.680 opinion pieces

00:19:46.420 on both

00:19:47.080 CNN and Fox

00:19:47.900 you know if

00:19:48.860 it's an opinion

00:19:49.400 it's an opinion

00:19:50.060 so you can

00:19:50.560 say jabbered

00:19:51.220 but jabbered

00:19:52.120 is a great

00:19:52.640 word

00:19:53.040 jabbered

00:19:54.660 because you

00:19:55.460 don't have to

00:19:56.100 you don't have

00:19:57.500 to defend

00:19:58.240 jabbered

00:19:59.720 you can just

00:20:01.060 say it happened

00:20:01.720 and people go

00:20:02.560 well he sounds

00:20:03.400 like he was

00:20:03.820 jabbering

00:20:04.320 you don't have

00:20:05.860 to give any

00:20:06.240 examples of

00:20:06.920 what a jabbering

00:20:07.800 is

00:20:08.040 all right

00:20:09.500 so I had

00:20:14.560 an experience

00:20:15.120 yesterday

00:20:16.040 of talking

00:20:17.340 to someone

00:20:18.020 who shall

00:20:18.460 remain nameless

00:20:19.240 but let's say

00:20:19.780 it's someone

00:20:20.880 who knows

00:20:22.720 a lot about

00:20:23.220 the world

00:20:23.740 so somebody

00:20:26.300 who's really

00:20:28.620 well educated

00:20:30.280 about how

00:20:31.420 things work

00:20:32.300 right so I'm

00:20:33.480 not talking

00:20:34.020 to a dumb

00:20:34.520 person so

00:20:35.520 keep in your

00:20:36.040 mind smart

00:20:37.460 smart

00:20:38.040 super accomplished

00:20:39.720 person

00:20:40.220 supports Biden

00:20:43.180 and we got

00:20:45.580 into a little

00:20:46.020 conversation about

00:20:46.980 that about

00:20:47.980 supporting Biden

00:20:48.840 he's a big

00:20:50.280 anti-Trumper

00:20:50.980 and I was

00:20:53.420 curious about

00:20:54.280 why anybody

00:20:55.740 could do that

00:20:56.700 like what's

00:20:57.380 what's the

00:20:58.660 thinking

00:20:59.040 and I had

00:21:01.220 predicted on

00:21:01.820 Twitter maybe

00:21:02.480 a week or so

00:21:03.280 ago that we

00:21:04.580 would hear more

00:21:05.320 and more tortured

00:21:06.360 explanations

00:21:07.100 of why

00:21:08.160 anybody would

00:21:08.820 support Joe

00:21:09.640 when it's

00:21:10.820 obvious his

00:21:11.840 mental health

00:21:12.440 is declining

00:21:13.200 I mean it's

00:21:13.820 really obvious

00:21:14.500 right and

00:21:15.460 here was the

00:21:16.100 first cognitive

00:21:17.160 dissonance

00:21:17.900 example or

00:21:20.400 it's true so

00:21:21.760 you get to

00:21:22.260 decide so my

00:21:24.480 judgment of it

00:21:25.280 is a little

00:21:26.260 cognitive dissonancy

00:21:27.580 no it's not

00:21:29.000 devolved you're

00:21:29.800 not going to

00:21:30.160 guess who it

00:21:30.580 is it's not

00:21:31.120 somebody I've

00:21:31.640 mentioned before

00:21:32.200 so if it's

00:21:34.260 if you're

00:21:34.700 guessing somebody

00:21:35.480 that you I've

00:21:36.220 talked about

00:21:36.740 just forget it

00:21:37.780 you're not going

00:21:38.180 to guess and it

00:21:39.220 doesn't matter

00:21:39.600 anyway and or

00:21:44.160 or is the

00:21:45.460 following thing

00:21:46.320 objectively true

00:21:47.720 so you decide

00:21:49.300 does this sound

00:21:50.160 like crazy talk

00:21:51.840 which would be a

00:21:52.680 tell for cognitive

00:21:53.520 dissonance or is

00:21:55.120 it a perfectly

00:21:55.760 reasonable statement

00:21:57.140 here it is

00:21:58.140 Joe Biden is

00:22:01.400 actually smart

00:22:02.640 and capable when

00:22:03.760 you talk to him

00:22:04.400 in person it's

00:22:06.320 just that when he

00:22:07.000 does things in

00:22:07.660 public he's

00:22:10.100 sort of lost

00:22:10.880 his step so he

00:22:11.680 can't keep up

00:22:12.540 you know in a

00:22:13.900 public venue he

00:22:15.980 can't really keep

00:22:16.620 up anymore but

00:22:18.540 there's no problem

00:22:19.420 because if you talk

00:22:20.740 to him in person

00:22:21.340 he's perfectly

00:22:21.920 fine brains all

00:22:23.720 there everything's

00:22:24.420 working

00:22:24.700 Trump on the

00:22:27.340 other hand

00:22:27.880 goes the story

00:22:30.420 that he might

00:22:32.440 look like he

00:22:33.040 can function in

00:22:33.820 public you know

00:22:34.760 at least to his

00:22:35.660 supporters I mean

00:22:37.200 it looks like he

00:22:38.060 understands the

00:22:38.980 topics and has a

00:22:40.840 full control of

00:22:41.700 things you know I

00:22:42.480 mean he's always

00:22:42.880 Trump but it

00:22:44.420 looks like he does

00:22:45.100 have a full full

00:22:46.780 control of his

00:22:47.780 faculties and he's

00:22:48.820 operating at a

00:22:49.500 high level in

00:22:50.440 public but the

00:22:52.520 story goes that

00:22:54.060 in private it's

00:22:56.000 completely different

00:22:56.900 so one version of

00:22:59.980 what's going on

00:23:00.660 here is that Joe

00:23:01.640 Biden is this

00:23:02.560 unique character

00:23:03.980 who's smart

00:23:04.800 privately but only

00:23:06.880 recently he's

00:23:08.540 become incompetent

00:23:10.440 in public but you

00:23:11.800 shouldn't worry about

00:23:12.540 that too much

00:23:13.300 because he's fine

00:23:14.300 and personally he's

00:23:15.480 fine whereas Trump

00:23:17.440 and here's a weird

00:23:18.240 coincidence what are

00:23:19.900 the odds that Trump

00:23:20.640 would be the

00:23:21.100 opposite and that

00:23:23.500 Trump would be

00:23:24.300 perfectly functional

00:23:25.780 in public if you

00:23:26.860 don't count what

00:23:27.660 the fake media

00:23:29.160 says he's saying

00:23:30.140 you know if you

00:23:31.240 believe he suggested

00:23:32.380 drinking bleach

00:23:33.500 well then you think

00:23:34.940 he's not competent

00:23:35.800 but of course that

00:23:36.920 didn't happen

00:23:37.560 that's just what the

00:23:39.200 media said he said

00:23:40.200 so if you ignore

00:23:41.180 what the media said

00:23:42.020 he said and just

00:23:42.700 look at what he

00:23:43.260 says perfectly

00:23:45.440 reasonable but

00:23:47.000 behind closed

00:23:47.840 doors not so

00:23:49.560 much now you know

00:23:51.780 as you know I

00:23:52.380 spent a little bit

00:23:53.780 of time talking to

00:23:54.880 the president in a

00:23:56.040 personal conversation

00:23:57.000 I did not detect

00:24:00.120 anything wrong with

00:24:01.940 his brain right so

00:24:03.840 I have you know I

00:24:04.640 only this much

00:24:05.600 experience and we

00:24:07.100 weren't talking about

00:24:07.920 any kind of you

00:24:08.600 know businessy or

00:24:09.480 policy things so

00:24:10.560 there wasn't anything

00:24:11.080 complicated about it

00:24:12.200 but I feel like I

00:24:14.200 would have detected a

00:24:15.280 problem you know we

00:24:17.500 talked about enough

00:24:19.180 things a broad enough

00:24:20.560 palette of things

00:24:21.580 that I would have

00:24:22.840 picked up I'm sure I

00:24:24.800 would have picked up a

00:24:25.620 little problem if

00:24:27.100 there was one I

00:24:28.540 didn't see anything I

00:24:29.640 didn't see anything I

00:24:30.420 even questioned as

00:24:31.620 like whoa why do you

00:24:32.700 say that or nothing

00:24:33.780 like that perfectly

00:24:35.240 ordinary functional

00:24:36.520 person like most of

00:24:37.940 us so look for

00:24:40.460 further stories about

00:24:43.180 the explanation of why

00:24:45.520 people are okay with

00:24:46.620 Biden and and at

00:24:48.500 least people are

00:24:49.120 saying directly yeah

00:24:50.880 we think maybe he

00:24:52.840 did do that thing

00:24:53.800 with terror rate we

00:24:55.560 don't like it but

00:24:57.320 boy we really don't

00:24:58.400 like Trump so in

00:24:59.440 other words they're

00:25:00.660 you know throwing

00:25:01.580 their principles to

00:25:02.940 the side to get a

00:25:04.540 better result I got

00:25:06.820 into this discussion

00:25:07.780 with a professor of

00:25:09.440 biology on epidemiology

00:25:14.620 now if you've been

00:25:17.840 following along with

00:25:19.820 my periscopes for a

00:25:20.880 while you probably

00:25:22.660 already know where

00:25:23.360 this is going to

00:25:23.960 head right so I

00:25:26.260 had a little bit of

00:25:26.940 I won't call it

00:25:27.760 disagreement I was

00:25:28.940 confused at what

00:25:30.380 Carl Bergstrom was

00:25:32.260 saying on Twitter

00:25:32.880 seems like a real

00:25:34.400 well-informed smart

00:25:36.100 guy and he was

00:25:37.940 doing a real good

00:25:38.600 job of explaining

00:25:39.580 stuff he was

00:25:40.720 explaining specifically

00:25:41.820 the purpose behind

00:25:43.940 flattening the curve

00:25:45.360 and his point was

00:25:47.060 that the purpose is

00:25:48.220 not just to keep

00:25:50.300 people out of the

00:25:50.980 hospitals which is

00:25:52.300 important but that

00:25:53.800 also by flattening

00:25:54.860 the curve you would

00:25:55.980 in the end infect

00:25:57.120 fewer people and

00:25:59.620 you know of course

00:26:00.260 I of course raised my

00:26:01.440 hand on Twitter and

00:26:02.400 say okay but

00:26:03.880 doesn't what you

00:26:06.100 said doesn't support

00:26:07.360 that because I was

00:26:08.640 just looking at his

00:26:09.360 thread and his graphs

00:26:10.480 and I said it

00:26:11.540 doesn't support

00:26:12.160 that what you've

00:26:13.060 what you've so far

00:26:14.920 presented simply

00:26:16.780 says it would be

00:26:17.520 spread out but I

00:26:19.300 don't see the

00:26:19.860 argument for why it

00:26:21.240 would ever be less

00:26:22.180 in the long run we

00:26:23.420 would still reach

00:26:24.040 herd immunity one

00:26:25.840 way or another and

00:26:27.660 he we had a few

00:26:30.400 iterations and I and

00:26:31.940 I still said but I'm

00:26:33.340 not seeing any kind

00:26:34.180 of description of

00:26:36.320 what would cause the

00:26:37.400 flattened graph ever

00:26:39.400 to drop off because

00:26:41.100 if it doesn't drop

00:26:41.980 off then it just

00:26:43.580 keeps going flat until

00:26:44.820 you get to the same

00:26:45.680 amount as if it had

00:26:47.580 been a peak right

00:26:49.440 and now I'm just

00:26:51.300 asking from the point

00:26:52.340 of ignorance I'm not

00:26:53.920 I'm not yet disagreeing

00:26:55.740 with anything I'm

00:26:57.020 trying to understand

00:26:57.980 so yeah I guess he

00:27:01.980 was doing something

00:27:03.180 else today besides

00:27:04.120 talking to me so he

00:27:06.140 said that he had to

00:27:07.000 had to run so we

00:27:08.040 didn't quite finish

00:27:09.000 this but he did leave

00:27:09.920 me with this provocative

00:27:11.660 thought which which

00:27:14.080 could be true so

00:27:15.200 let's say there's a

00:27:16.100 good chance that what

00:27:17.360 he's saying might be

00:27:18.480 true and here's the

00:27:19.220 argument still missing

00:27:20.760 some some reasons in

00:27:22.420 it but at least here it

00:27:23.480 is that if you do the

00:27:25.980 unmitigated peak and

00:27:28.480 you just let it peak

00:27:29.700 that you will get to

00:27:31.620 herd immunity same as

00:27:33.800 if you know say this

00:27:35.440 these are my words not

00:27:36.360 his same as if you

00:27:37.700 had a flattened curve

00:27:38.540 that would just take

00:27:39.380 longer but if you let

00:27:42.800 the peak happen you

00:27:44.400 will go past herd

00:27:45.960 immunity in other

00:27:47.580 words if you creep up

00:27:48.760 to herd immunity maybe

00:27:50.340 you can sort of hit it

00:27:51.360 wherever that number is

00:27:52.520 60% of people having

00:27:53.960 it but if you don't

00:27:55.440 creep up on it you're

00:27:56.620 going to overshoot the

00:27:57.480 mark because it'll just

00:27:59.260 be so vicious that just

00:28:01.940 too many people get it

00:28:03.080 before herd immunity

00:28:04.860 even gets to be a

00:28:05.780 thing to which I said

00:28:08.120 okay I will accept

00:28:12.400 that people say that

00:28:14.300 but I still don't see

00:28:15.640 why and then I and

00:28:18.760 then I asked this

00:28:19.460 question which is still

00:28:20.380 hanging out there I

00:28:21.120 haven't got an answer

00:28:21.660 I said I can see why

00:28:23.700 that might be a thing

00:28:24.620 with a quick killing

00:28:26.260 fast moving virus if

00:28:29.500 it's moving fast and

00:28:31.180 it's killing people

00:28:32.160 fast I can see how

00:28:34.500 that would make sense

00:28:35.400 that having a spike

00:28:37.480 could get you past

00:28:38.440 herd immunity and

00:28:39.400 then you know too

00:28:40.600 many people died but

00:28:41.920 I said with the

00:28:42.500 coronavirus since you

00:28:44.520 can be asymptomatic

00:28:45.660 for you know a week

00:28:46.900 or two wouldn't even

00:28:49.400 if you got all the

00:28:50.240 infections in the

00:28:51.000 United States to zero

00:28:52.280 all it would take is

00:28:54.220 one traveler to come

00:28:55.440 in and my town would

00:28:56.940 be infected before

00:28:57.840 anybody even got a

00:28:58.740 test so I said I'm

00:29:01.180 in the in the very

00:29:02.120 specific case of the

00:29:03.540 coronavirus where you

00:29:05.020 can be asymptomatic for

00:29:06.320 a long time how do

00:29:09.840 you you know how do

00:29:11.000 you ever not get to

00:29:12.400 the same herd immunity

00:29:13.680 but there could be

00:29:17.320 something to this

00:29:18.700 thought that if you

00:29:19.600 get to it quickly and

00:29:21.120 you know just all at

00:29:23.780 once you can shoot

00:29:24.740 past it but I've not

00:29:26.140 I've not yet seen the

00:29:27.300 argument for it but

00:29:29.060 there's a punchline to

00:29:30.140 all this and here's

00:29:32.940 the punchline so after

00:29:36.300 a few of my ignorant

00:29:37.420 non-scientist questions

00:29:39.300 professor Bergstrom left

00:29:44.140 me with this thought he

00:29:45.820 said Scott it's entirely

00:29:48.360 possible that thousands

00:29:50.380 of infectious disease

00:29:51.900 epidemiologists are

00:29:53.360 mistaken or lying or maybe

00:29:56.520 your intuitions are wrong

00:29:57.920 so he sets it up as it's

00:30:01.780 my ignorant cartoonist

00:30:03.320 intuition which he says

00:30:07.300 hey could be right and

00:30:09.280 maybe thousands of

00:30:10.940 infectious disease

00:30:12.040 epidemiologists who agree

00:30:14.180 with him maybe they're

00:30:15.520 all wrong which I thought

00:30:17.920 was a pretty good line

00:30:18.900 under normal circumstances

00:30:21.180 right good line right

00:30:24.720 here's what I said I

00:30:28.180 said well it wouldn't be

00:30:29.200 the first time this year I

00:30:30.520 was more right about this

00:30:31.920 virus than nearly every

00:30:33.440 health professional in the

00:30:34.620 world it would be the

00:30:36.740 third time because it

00:30:38.940 would be it would be the

00:30:40.440 third time my intuition

00:30:42.460 was better than what do

00:30:44.140 you say thousands of

00:30:46.260 infectious disease

00:30:47.380 epidemiologists yes yes my

00:30:50.640 intuition was better in

00:30:52.520 public than thousands of

00:30:57.120 epidemiologists I I told

00:31:00.160 you the mask would help

00:31:01.500 when they said it

00:31:02.180 wouldn't fact check me if

00:31:04.680 I'm wrong and now they all

00:31:05.700 agree with me I told you

00:31:07.760 that we should shut the

00:31:09.400 airports on January 24th when

00:31:13.140 the expert said not yet who

00:31:16.900 was right my instinct or

00:31:19.780 thousands of infectious

00:31:22.060 disease epidemiologists and

00:31:25.760 the answer is my instinct so

00:31:28.080 professor Bergstrom is he

00:31:31.600 seems well informed and

00:31:32.800 smart and I hope he gets

00:31:34.460 back to me because I think

00:31:35.880 he has something there I

00:31:37.400 just think that he had some

00:31:38.580 maybe some assumptions that

00:31:41.440 he may have assumed other

00:31:42.780 people assumed and so I was a

00:31:44.620 little bit in the dark about

00:31:45.580 that but I appreciate him

00:31:47.260 working with me I just think

00:31:48.980 it's funny that even at this

00:31:50.880 point people would still doubt

00:31:53.420 my intuition over their

00:31:54.740 thousands of experts what's

00:31:56.580 wrong with them I say all

00:31:58.700 right

00:31:59.140 let's see so remember I taught

00:32:05.060 you how to spot fake news and

00:32:08.240 one of the ways that you do it is

00:32:09.580 you look for a story that's a

00:32:10.800 little too perfect because it

00:32:12.800 fits a political narrative and

00:32:16.040 then secondly fake news is when

00:32:18.300 you you think you can read minds

00:32:20.860 okay so it turns out we have

00:32:24.440 this story about a mood

00:32:28.380 Arbery a young African-American

00:32:30.940 guy 25 ex-military I think he

00:32:34.380 was he was the story is I'll just

00:32:37.580 say the story is because I wasn't

00:32:39.020 there that he was just jogging in a

00:32:42.460 Brunswick Georgia neighborhood and

00:32:44.940 that there were two and this is

00:32:47.420 this is Twitter's explanation two

00:32:50.560 white supremacists chased him down

00:32:53.180 and shot him now I have many

00:32:56.640 comments about this number one he

00:32:59.460 the story from the people did the

00:33:01.580 shooting is that he looked like

00:33:03.220 somebody who had been a burglarizing

00:33:05.880 some homes that they'd seen on a

00:33:08.140 video from before and they were

00:33:10.440 just trying to talk to him and he

00:33:12.180 was running away and they were just

00:33:13.460 sort of they wanted to talk to him

00:33:15.060 but they had guns and if you look at

00:33:18.820 the video there's a video of the

00:33:20.540 actual event I don't know if people

00:33:24.480 see the video differently but what I

00:33:26.480 saw was the I saw Arbery attacking the

00:33:30.300 guy with the gun I did not see the guy

00:33:32.760 with the gun shoot first or attack the

00:33:37.100 other guy the the the the person who

00:33:40.380 died I only saw the person who died

00:33:42.300 attack the person with the gun and run

00:33:44.880 right at him and not let go while the

00:33:48.140 guy with the gun had the gun in his

00:33:49.700 chest like the the gun was actually

00:33:52.020 pointed at the guy's torso while the

00:33:55.220 guy was still fighting with the guy now

00:33:57.820 I'm no hand-to-hand expert I have not

00:34:02.160 battle expert I have never been in the

00:34:04.960 military but I don't know if somebody's

00:34:07.820 pointing a gun at me and they just want

00:34:09.420 to ask me a question I'm not going to

00:34:11.880 try to take that gun out of their hands

00:34:13.640 because I would be afraid I would be

00:34:15.340 shot now I think I have to insert at

00:34:19.500 this point of the story to keep me

00:34:21.300 employed and energy ill and stuff I'll

00:34:23.880 have to insert this this will be the

00:34:25.740 part that people take out when they

00:34:27.080 take me out of context later I doubt

00:34:30.060 there was a good reason to shoot this

00:34:31.580 man meaning a situation was created

00:34:35.900 that probably didn't need to get

00:34:37.700 created so I'm not forgiving anybody I

00:34:41.060 would say however it is not an evidence

00:34:43.160 that these two people who did the the

00:34:46.400 alleged crime were white supremacists I

00:34:51.520 don't think that's an evidence and if

00:34:54.300 they were white supremacists which I

00:34:56.100 haven't seen any evidence of that um

00:34:59.260 that doesn't seem to be the motive for

00:35:02.780 this because there was no part of it

00:35:05.840 where they would have said you know

00:35:07.340 there's a white guy jogging and we saw

00:35:10.060 this white guy in the video and we think

00:35:11.800 this white guy has robbed our

00:35:13.860 neighborhood several times do you think

00:35:16.340 they would not have tried to stop the

00:35:18.040 white guy I mean that's the assumption

00:35:20.500 right that if everything was different

00:35:22.680 now everything was the same except the

00:35:25.640 young man had been a white guy do we

00:35:29.920 assume that these two people with the

00:35:31.860 guns would not have tried to stop him

00:35:33.580 if they had recognized him on the video

00:35:35.180 or thought they saw him I don't know

00:35:39.080 that he was actually on the video so

00:35:42.140 there's no evidence of a racial motive

00:35:45.960 and there's plenty of evidence that it

00:35:48.060 wasn't so of course on Twitter that's

00:35:50.540 that makes them white supremacists and

00:35:53.160 it was at LeBron James says that

00:35:57.920 African-Americans are quote literally

00:36:01.860 hunted every day every time they go

00:36:03.980 outside would somebody get with LeBron

00:36:07.600 James and teach him what the word

00:36:09.420 literally means because I mean I could be

00:36:13.180 wrong fact check me on this if we have

00:36:16.740 some African-American viewers on

00:36:19.300 Periscope would you say it's literally

00:36:22.000 true that you were hunted every day

00:36:23.960 every time you go outside are you

00:36:25.740 hunted feels extreme I mean I get the

00:36:30.260 point and and I certainly think that if

00:36:34.020 I were African-American I might be

00:36:35.600 arguing it the same way they are you

00:36:37.920 know because a lot of these arguments

00:36:39.860 are about power and safety and you know

00:36:43.040 it's not really about the specific

00:36:44.720 situation you know people are trying to

00:36:46.740 generalize a specific situation to get

00:36:49.520 some political gain if I were African-American

00:36:52.660 and I thought you know you know I think I'd

00:36:57.000 like to improve my situation I might use it

00:37:00.360 this way you know if I thought well it's

00:37:02.840 not exactly in evidence but I can spin it

00:37:06.320 this way and maybe something good comes out

00:37:08.200 of this the weirdest part of this story

00:37:12.100 that the simulation has served up is that

00:37:15.680 the people who did the shooting suspected

00:37:18.260 this young man of robbery and his last

00:37:21.700 name is Arbery what are the odds that

00:37:25.800 somebody whose last name is Arbery would

00:37:28.300 be accused of robbery I don't know I

00:37:31.980 suppose anything is possible but I like to

00:37:36.020 think it's the simulation working on code

00:37:38.660 reuse even though that's probably not

00:37:41.340 what's going on so the that Lindsey Graham

00:37:48.820 was saying that the the Steele dossier just

00:37:52.280 completely completely lays bare I'm sorry

00:37:55.840 he said that the Steele dossier was

00:37:58.560 discredited before Rosenstein even said to

00:38:03.620 investigate Carter Page and with that now

00:38:06.940 documented so we don't have to wonder

00:38:09.580 about who said what or you know when when

00:38:12.460 it was said and Lindsey Graham says

00:38:15.680 basically it's just plain that now that

00:38:17.980 there was a plot to get rid of the

00:38:20.460 president I don't even know how to process

00:38:22.620 this are you having the same are you

00:38:25.060 having the same mental problem that I am

00:38:29.660 which is apparently you know law enforcement

00:38:34.840 and you know the FBI did actually try to

00:38:39.360 remove a legally elected president under

00:38:43.240 with you know inappropriate means how is

00:38:50.380 that not just blowing our mind and the only

00:38:53.760 thing we're talking about now part of it is

00:38:55.560 the coronavirus of course and part of it is it

00:38:57.720 took so long to get here that we got sort of

00:39:00.960 exhausted by the story so so I think we got

00:39:05.060 exhausted by the story before we found out how

00:39:07.340 bad it was and now we can't generate the

00:39:09.800 outrage that you know you would you would get if

00:39:12.340 it was the second week of the story imagine

00:39:14.780 finding out one month into the story about the

00:39:18.420 Russia collusion just fantasize with me imagine in

00:39:22.320 one month you had found out everything it took

00:39:25.760 us two years or whatever to find out we'd be

00:39:30.400 calling for the execution of Comey and some of

00:39:34.100 the others wouldn't we I mean actually the

00:39:36.340 execution would we not because what is what

00:39:40.980 is the what is the crime for trying to

00:39:45.180 overthrow the country or I don't even know is

00:39:49.280 is that is that treason it's treason if you're

00:39:52.540 helping your enemies but suppose you're just

00:39:54.160 doing it for your own purposes what exactly is

00:39:57.240 the penalty for that you know there might be

00:40:00.920 penalties for not doing your job right and the

00:40:04.620 details of you know maybe you violated somebody's

00:40:07.900 rights and stuff so there could be some legal

00:40:09.660 recourse of the details but what about the big

00:40:12.220 picture is there no big picture where an

00:40:16.300 actual coup was attempted what but but it's not

00:40:20.940 treason exactly is it Alexa define treason

00:40:25.540 oh okay yeah treason fits I I was thinking that

00:40:39.860 treason was more helping an enemy but according to

00:40:43.520 that definition it just has to do with trying to

00:40:46.360 overthrow your own government so did they

00:40:49.320 try to overthrow their own government I think

00:40:52.140 so if you found out let me ask this just

00:40:56.700 hypothetically if you found out that this was

00:41:02.380 treason and that it could be demonstrated I

00:41:06.780 don't know what the actual penalty in this

00:41:08.440 country is for that would you favor the death

00:41:10.880 penalty for the people involved so that would

00:41:14.320 be Comey Rosenstein I don't know McCabe it so so

00:41:21.620 make the assumption that the legal system does

00:41:24.960 this thing and let's say they found that they did

00:41:28.200 in fact try to overthrow the government let's say

00:41:31.160 that that was demonstrated in a court of law is that a

00:41:36.500 life sentence 30 years execution capital offense I

00:41:42.840 don't know because I can't think of a bigger problem you

00:41:46.940 know what what would be more of a crime than that would

00:41:51.680 a terrorist act be more of a crime than that I don't

00:41:55.520 know it's a pretty big crime feels like the biggest crime I've

00:42:01.720 ever seen maybe that's not actually violent so I just put

00:42:06.720 that out there if there's any companies that are looking for

00:42:11.000 KN95 masks and some other protective equipment and you're

00:42:14.960 you're you're lost in the the wilderness of all these pirate and

00:42:19.880 scam organizations are trying to study things and not delivering

00:42:22.840 check my Twitter feed for tweet by Tom Sauer S-A-U-R who has located a

00:42:33.820 number of supplies that he can deliver so if you're a corporation and you want

00:42:37.360 to let's say get some KN95 masks for your staff you could buy them in big

00:42:43.980 big bunches from him I'm only mentioning him because there are so many

00:42:48.200 frauds out there and since Tom is well known on at least at least a

00:42:53.900 conservative Twitter knows Tom well a lot of you who are watching this follow

00:42:58.380 him on on Twitter so he's a real person doing a real thing military ex-military

00:43:02.580 so I feel you could trust him to be straight on the transaction which is the

00:43:09.320 hardest thing to trust right now all right

00:43:11.560 um I watched the plandemic video because so many of you asked me to now if

00:43:20.180 you don't know what that is there's a video going around that it looks like a

00:43:24.240 an interview that might be a setup or publicity for something that's a full

00:43:28.980 length movie that I haven't seen so I watched the interview part not the movie

00:43:34.140 and plandemic I guess is the movie and here's my bottom line on the video it

00:43:40.420 looks it's mostly as far as I can tell this is just my initial opinion it looks

00:43:47.180 like conspiracy theory bullshit to me all right but it does look like a number of

00:43:54.280 the facts in it are probably true almost almost certainly true so I'm not saying

00:43:59.300 the facts are all untrue but there's a way that they're tied together and some

00:44:04.900 assumptions and some mind reading that turns it into a bigger conspiracy the the net

00:44:10.280 of it is it looks like this that Fauci is actually some kind of a bad guy and

00:44:16.220 that um he is associated with an organization that um that funded the

00:44:22.300 Wuhan lab and and uh a year or more ago he warned that there would definitely be a

00:44:28.100 coronavirus and how did he know and by the way he's got some patents for some

00:44:33.820 vaccines or something and those patents on things he might profit from them if he

00:44:39.180 can get you know his vaccine or his company with a therapeutic to do it so

00:44:44.880 there's this whole thing that Fauci uh I don't know somehow he might have been

00:44:49.600 behind the the virus and so that's the conspiracy crazy parts the less crazy part

00:44:57.260 about that is that the pharmaceutical industry could be corrupting things and

00:45:02.800 lying and trying to make four trillion dollars so there's uh I did not find any

00:45:09.780 credibility in the person who was interviewed the principal character there I

00:45:15.040 would say that she had every uh let's see based on experience I'm gonna say that

00:45:22.720 people who look and act like her in my experience have some issues that go beyond

00:45:30.360 the facts of this situation um so I didn't find her credible but in the same breath here's

00:45:38.840 something else I didn't find credible at one point that the FBI tried to overthrow the

00:45:44.040 government of the United States when I first heard that I just thought come on

00:45:50.220 people is there anything you won't believe yeah the FBI tried to overthrow the

00:45:58.080 government you bunch of ignorant what we have documents we have memos we've got

00:46:08.500 handwritten notes it's all true apparently it's all true it's all true now the part I

00:46:15.540 doubted early on primarily was the the level of coordination you know was there was

00:46:21.860 there like a ringleader and everybody was sort of working for the ringleader because

00:46:27.280 that's the way it was sort of portrayed in the beginning I don't see evidence of that yet

00:46:31.580 I do it I do see evidence that lots of people have the same motive and thoughts and maybe they

00:46:37.800 acted in a way that any one of them would have acted if they'd been in that situation

00:46:41.580 but it's a little different than an organized plot but not not much it's not like they didn't

00:46:48.740 all know each other have the same goals probably talk to each other you know you know people

00:46:54.760 signed off on the same stuff so you can't rule out the fact that it was kind of organized I'm just

00:47:03.500 saying that that's not an evidence based on the documents so I didn't believe that because that

00:47:08.900 seemed just way too wild I mean just way beyond the you know the pale of likelihood but turns out

00:47:17.040 it's true turns out it's true so are the claims made in the plan uh plandemic video and interview

00:47:27.160 are they true doesn't look like it to me you know if I had to put my own money on it I'd say ah

00:47:35.080 there are two facts in there but the way you've woven it together no that's just misleading that's what

00:47:40.780 I'd bet on but I also would have bet the FBI was not trying to remove a legally uh legally elected

00:47:47.600 president I would have been wrong about that so um I like to remind you when I'm right but it's also

00:47:54.820 just as useful to remind you when I'm wrong and I would say that even though I you know I can make

00:48:01.260 an argument that I shaded a little bit about how organized it was I would have to say overall that I

00:48:06.780 was just wrong on that one so count that one on my uh incorrect um predictions

00:48:14.600 all right I think that was everything I wanted to talk about just checking my notes yes it is

00:48:25.120 that's it that's all I had did president Obama know well that would certainly make things interesting

00:48:34.640 wouldn't it wouldn't that be interesting um here's my best guess on that now even though all these

00:48:42.660 people were professionals and you you would think that they would be smart enough not to write stuff

00:48:47.880 down right wouldn't they be smart enough not to write down the things that are going to get them

00:48:53.380 you know in jail or whatever but I have to think that Obama was never that dumb you know my my impression

00:49:01.320 of Obama you can love him or hate him for his policies or whatever I don't care but I don't know

00:49:09.460 that anybody has questioned his intelligence to me he always seemed like a really smart guy so would a

00:49:17.560 really smart guy leave any kind of a trail of this kind of activity I don't think so I think that if he was

00:49:26.400 involved it would have been verbal and probably only with you know one person who he knew he could trust

00:49:33.180 that's how I'd play it if I were trying to overthrow the government I would not leave a any kind of a

00:49:40.080 record of it so I know a lot of you are saying you know probably he did I would have to go if I'm going to put

00:49:48.980 a let's say a percentage on it the odds that well here's the here's the problem though we know that

00:49:56.360 the FBI knew that they were doing something sketchy what we don't know is if that was ever transmitted

00:50:03.180 to Obama we do know you know that he was the boss but we don't know that if when they gave a status

00:50:13.140 report to Obama did they say you know I know you want this guy out of here so what we're doing is

00:50:18.740 we're gonna we're gonna pretend that a Carter page has something maybe we can find something we'll dig

00:50:23.920 around I don't know that they ever told him that it feels like something you don't tell the president

00:50:30.060 because you don't want him to know right so I would guess that Obama will never be

00:50:37.620 identified as a co-conspirator so let me put a odds on it I would say the odds that he actually knew

00:50:45.060 that something just blatantly illegal was happening what are the odds he knew something illegal was happening

00:50:51.140 ah

00:50:53.380 then you'd have to divide knowing did he know because he just sort of knew or did he know because they told him

00:51:01.340 I think knowing because they told him probably didn't happen

00:51:04.860 knowing because he you know he's experienced and he just knew

00:51:09.580 maybe 70 percent 70 percent chance something like that

00:51:15.000 yeah I'll give you a 70 percent chance that Obama knew

00:51:19.360 will you be satisfied with that I know some of you want 100 percent

00:51:23.920 uh Elon Musk is on Rogan

00:51:27.040 really and it's dropping at 9 a.m. somebody says

00:51:30.720 well that would be interesting

00:51:33.420 somebody says he knew but he looked the other way

00:51:38.840 yeah we would never be able to prove something like that

00:51:42.760 uh Lisa Page was quoted as saying somebody saying in the comments here

00:51:48.800 quote

00:51:49.240 POTUS wants to know everything we are doing

00:51:51.920 well him wanting to know everything you're doing

00:51:55.080 and you deciding to tell him that you're doing something illegal

00:51:58.700 are very different things

00:52:00.580 so I don't doubt

00:52:02.360 that the president wanted to know

00:52:05.340 I do doubt that they told him everything

00:52:07.860 um

00:52:10.420 somebody points out that Watergate started without direct knowledge by Nixon

00:52:16.220 good example

00:52:18.400 so I think in general

00:52:19.920 you would find that your presidents are smart enough to not commit things to writing

00:52:23.960 here's here's something that uh I have a hypothesis

00:52:29.060 that nobody like Trump could ever have uh

00:52:33.800 have ever made it to the presidency

00:52:36.400 if he had ever used email

00:52:39.040 that's my statement

00:52:42.040 that Trump would never be our president

00:52:45.300 if he had a habit of using email all of his life

00:52:49.040 there's just no way

00:52:50.980 because sooner or later those emails would come out

00:52:54.080 and God knows what would be in them

00:52:55.880 my understanding is that

00:52:57.820 Trump made it a career-long practice

00:53:00.820 to not write stuff down

00:53:02.060 now how well did that pay off

00:53:04.800 really well

00:53:06.240 I mean not writing stuff down

00:53:08.640 is a pretty solid

00:53:09.920 solid strategy

00:53:11.500 if you don't want somebody coming after you

00:53:13.640 uh somebody's asking about Kim Jong-un's body double

00:53:17.580 all right so you know that I've called

00:53:19.140 I've called bullshit on the

00:53:20.740 the video of Kim Jong-un

00:53:23.280 and bullshit on the photo as well

00:53:25.840 now that doesn't mean I'm right

00:53:27.800 all right

00:53:29.160 so I like I like to always deal in probability

00:53:31.580 um my

00:53:33.280 but I'm going to go with the prediction

00:53:35.220 that Kim is either uh

00:53:37.380 let's say degraded or dead

00:53:39.780 probably not dead

00:53:41.680 more likely degraded

00:53:43.380 because I think we'd know if he was dead

00:53:45.280 uh but we wouldn't necessarily know if he were in a coma

00:53:48.540 here is my evidence in case you didn't hear before

00:53:51.460 uh just prior to the video being shown

00:53:53.880 the president was acting like he definitely knew what the situation was

00:53:58.120 and he was wishing Kim well

00:54:00.160 but then right after that

00:54:02.740 Kim is chipper walking around

00:54:05.440 visiting the fertilizer plant

00:54:07.820 did that happen?

00:54:09.780 did that happen?

00:54:12.840 and then the president

00:54:13.960 president just immediately said

00:54:15.360 oh it's great to see

00:54:16.380 you know

00:54:16.740 happy he's doing well

00:54:17.700 I don't know

00:54:20.620 so either the president had bad information

00:54:23.360 or

00:54:25.240 he had correct information

00:54:26.960 and he knows this video is fake

00:54:28.960 but he's trying to help them get away with it

00:54:31.340 because maybe it's just better for everybody

00:54:33.240 for the short term

00:54:34.700 of course videos can be faked

00:54:38.120 to me it looked like

00:54:39.200 a video that was spliced together

00:54:40.860 from maybe a prior trip or something

00:54:42.700 and then the still photograph just looked photoshopped to me

00:54:45.520 now experts have looked at the photo

00:54:48.640 that I say clearly looks photoshopped

00:54:50.760 and people who know way more than I do

00:54:53.020 about that stuff

00:54:54.060 don't see it

00:54:56.380 and a lot of people are convinced

00:54:59.460 the video is true

00:55:00.380 because they see it with your own eyes

00:55:02.140 but we're not in a world where videos can be true

00:55:05.040 so here's my further prediction

00:55:06.500 it's going to be a long time

00:55:09.900 before you see Kim in public again

00:55:12.860 now I don't know what his normal pattern is

00:55:15.820 in terms of how long he would normally go

00:55:18.460 before he's seen in public again

00:55:20.120 but here's my prediction

00:55:21.620 the length of time that he is not seen in public

00:55:25.020 will reach a new high

00:55:26.900 coming up

00:55:28.160 in other words

00:55:29.900 if you don't see him just pop up again in a month

00:55:33.020 those are fake videos

00:55:36.300 six months from now

00:55:38.500 if you've seen no new videos of Kim

00:55:41.120 those were fake videos

00:55:44.100 if in one month

00:55:46.180 he pops up and he's looking fine

00:55:48.540 then I'm going to revise

00:55:50.740 and I'll say

00:55:51.320 oh wow I guess I was fooled

00:55:52.560 those were probably real videos

00:55:54.220 I mean they could have still been faked

00:55:56.420 but more likely they'd be real

00:55:58.720 if a month from now

00:55:59.860 he's up and walking around

00:56:01.000 and it's obvious it's a current video

00:56:02.780 maybe he's shaking hands with somebody

00:56:04.780 we know is over there

00:56:05.780 you know

00:56:06.100 if it's current and it's in a month

00:56:08.080 that I'm definitely wrong

00:56:10.100 six months from now

00:56:13.100 if we still haven't seen him on video

00:56:15.920 I'm right

00:56:18.180 so we wait

00:56:20.820 now we wait

00:56:23.380 all right

00:56:25.140 that's all I got for now

00:56:28.260 and I will talk to you

00:56:29.400 tonight

00:56:31.020 tonight

00:56:31.100 a little bit

00:56:32.860 so

00:56:33.180 thank you

00:56:34.680 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 07, 2020

Episode 960 Scott Adams： Fake News, Bad Math, Bad Mind-Reading, Bad Behavior in the News

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