The Ben Shapiro Show - November 10, 2023


Pro-Hamas Protesters Want To Intimidate You

Topics
intimidation protests
Hosted by
Ben Shapiro
Mentioned
Joe Biden Donald Trump Charlie Hebdo Jerome Powell Joe Manchin Labels Suella Braverman Marine Le Pen Benjamin Netanyahu John Fetterman Ghazi Khamad Mark Penn Anderson Hamas Charles Q. Brown Michael Ramirez Kyrsten Sinema Dave McCormick Ruben Gallego Sherrod Brown and 39 more
FIGHT NIGHT #3: The Battle For Second Place The Barbarians Are In The Gates

Episode Stats


Length

47 minutes

Words per minute

202.45

Word count

9,613

Sentence count

707

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Toxicity

38

sentences flagged

Hate speech

30

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Pro-Hamas protests across the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the world are designed to intimidate, harass, and humiliate Jews and their Western allies. The goal of these protests is not to protest in favor of Palestinians, of course. If it were, protesters would have been out in the streets for the last 20 years pushing for Hamas's ouster. Since Hamas was stealing literally billions of dollars and using it to build terror tunnels and rockets, and they were killing anyone who opposed them, the goal isn t even to make a political point, really. Politicians may try to translate the obviously pro-terrorism and anti-Semitic messages of these pro- Hamas protests into political speak, but that's not what these protests are about. They're about intimidation, and that's why the protests aren't generally calm or peaceful. They involve assaults on police officers, and on Jews unlucky enough to fall within their grasp. Hate crimes against Jews are up over 200% in New York City, and there's been a surge in anti-Semitism among pro-Israel protesters across the country. The only way to relieve the angrier the anger is to surrender to the supposed "deaf-headed liberals" who equate anger with justification. Their goal is to force the West into submission to their own oppression, and therefore relieve themselves of their supposed "weakness" their hope in the hope that they can force their enemies into acquiescence. It's a show of strength, it is a threat. It is not a protest, it's a surrender. it is an act of strength. And they will do nothing but watch us passively as we do nothing to do nothing, and do nothing at all of our values that we can do nothing against it That's the only the less we do, the more we surrender to our own weak and softheaded emotions the more of this, the stronger we become and the more powerless we become . We will not do anything, the less of us do nothing we surrender a more of us will be powerless And so we will be a victim of our own weakness more of our weak and helplessness More of this - the more helplessness will be the more weak and less of ourselves - I hope you'll join us in marching against us in your values - that's what we will do - That s what we do

Transcript

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Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
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00:00:00.000 The goal of the current wave of pro-Hamas protests is very simple.
00:00:03.000 The goal is not to protest in favor of Palestinians, of course.
00:00:07.000 If it were, protesters would have been out in the streets for the last 20 years pushing for Hamas's ouster, since Hamas was stealing literally billions of dollars and using it to build terror tunnels and rockets.
00:00:16.000 And they were killing anyone who opposed them.
00:00:18.000 The goal isn't even to make a political point, really.
00:00:21.000 Politicians may try to translate the obviously pro-terrorism and anti-Semitic messages of these pro-Hamas protests into political speak.
00:00:28.000 I try to make it about a ceasefire or negotiations or a two-state solution, but that's not what these protests are about.
00:00:35.000 These protests are about intimidation.
00:00:38.000 It is that simple.
00:00:39.000 The size and virulence of the protests is designed to intimidate.
00:00:43.000 This is why the protests aren't generally calm or peaceful.
00:00:46.000 They are generally rowdy.
00:00:47.000 They are very often violent.
00:00:48.000 They involve assaults on police officers and on Jews unlucky enough to fall within arm's grasp.
00:00:53.000 Yesterday, a pro-Hamas rally in New York City, for example, ended with a pro-Hamasnik hitting a Jewish man in the head with a chair.
00:01:12.000 Hate crimes against Jews are up over 200% in New York City.
00:01:16.000 The pro-Hamas protesters will descend on the Museum of Tolerance, an irony almost too thick to believe, in order to assault Jews and reporters watching a compilation of Hamas' atrocities in the Gaza envelope.
00:01:26.000 All of this on the eve of the anniversary of Kristallnacht, the kickoff of violent Nazi atrocities against Jews in 1938.
00:01:31.000 Here's what that looked like.
00:01:46.000 Museum of Tolerance, by the way, is right on Pico Boulevard.
00:01:49.000 It's in one of the most Jewish areas of the city.
00:01:52.000 And pro-Palestine protesters, pro-Hamas protesters, showed up to try to beat people up.
00:01:57.000 Of course, we've seen these tactics all over the world.
00:02:00.000 Protesters attacking police officers in London, defacing historic statues and putting the kathia on Ben Franklin, climbing the walls of the White House.
00:02:07.000 We've seen protesters chanting openly for the slaughter of Jews, calling openly for the destruction of the state of Israel itself.
00:02:13.000 On campuses across the nation, Jews have been surrounded, pushed around, threatened. 1.00
00:02:17.000 There was UCLA yesterday, my alma mater, where one woman screamed, beat that f**king Jew 1.00
00:02:21.000 as protesters beat up a pinata of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 0.99
00:02:25.000 You can see them beating a pinata with a stick and screaming at the top of their lungs.
00:02:32.000 You can see them beating a pinata with a stick and screaming at the top of their lungs.
00:02:40.000 You're going to see one guy come up, grab the Netanyahu piñata and just start punching it, beating it. 0.72
00:02:56.000 Well, everyone cheers.
00:02:57.000 In the United Kingdom, Jewish students are now afraid to go to class. 1.00
00:03:00.000 According to reporter Itan Smallman, quote, in Bristol, a Jewish student was told, you and your family are money-grabbing c***s murdering Muslim people. 0.99
00:03:07.000 Another in Birmingham received an Instagram message from a stranger warning, quote, may a slow and painful death be granted to you and every other Zionist like you. 0.99
00:03:14.000 A university rabbi also received a direct message on the platform, quote, you massacred innocent Muslims. 1.00
00:03:18.000 I hope you die, too. 1.00
00:03:19.000 In Warwick, a Jewish student's WhatsApp group was infiltrated by at least three different people bombarding freshers with the message shown to me, including dirty Jewish. 1.00
00:03:28.000 Israel got no humanity. 1.00
00:03:29.000 Mud ring. 0.88
00:03:31.000 And free Palestine.
00:03:33.000 All that was spelled wrong, of course.
00:03:35.000 Over at MIT last night, according to students there, Jewish and Israeli MIT students were physically prevented from attending class by a hostile group of pro-Hamas students calling themselves the CAA.
00:03:46.000 The administration warned them to clear and get out of the way or they would be suspended.
00:03:50.000 They were not.
00:03:52.000 None of this falls into the realm of politics.
00:03:54.000 It's mere intimidation.
00:03:55.000 It is a show of strength.
00:03:56.000 It is a threat.
00:03:57.000 The idea is very simple.
00:03:59.000 There are millions of us, the Hamas supporters, who are in your streets.
00:04:02.000 We are in your classrooms.
00:04:03.000 We are in your companies.
00:04:04.000 We will say and do anything we like, exploiting your Western weakness.
00:04:08.000 You will import more of us. 1.00
00:04:09.000 Your sons and daughters will join us in marching against our values.
00:04:12.000 Your law enforcement organs will watch us passively as we do all of this.
00:04:16.000 And you will do nothing.
00:04:17.000 That's the message.
00:04:18.000 The goal of the pro-Hamas protests and rallies across the West is to make Jews and Western allies afraid.
00:04:23.000 By showing they have no limits, pro-Hamas forces in the West hope to force their enemies into acquiescence.
00:04:29.000 Their goal is to play on the emotions of soft-headed liberals who equate anger with justification.
00:04:33.000 Who believe that the angrier the protester, the more that anger must spring from oppression.
00:04:38.000 The only way to relieve that anger, therefore, is to relieve the supposed oppression.
00:04:43.000 To surrender.
00:04:44.000 And the West is filled with those who would surrender.
00:04:46.000 The latest example comes courtesy of the Washington Post.
00:04:48.000 Yesterday, the Washington Post removed a comic by famed cartoonist Michael Ramirez.
00:04:52.000 Here is what it looked like.
00:04:54.000 For those who can't see, it is a Hamas member, it is a Hamas spokesperson, and tied to him are babies, an innocent woman, in the corner you can see a picture of the leader of Hezbollah and the Palestinian flag, and this Hamas spokesperson is saying, how dare Israel attack civilians?
00:05:13.000 This, of course, is an accurate cartoon.
00:05:15.000 This is indeed Hamas's strategy to hide behind civilians, particularly children, while claiming immunity. 0.70
00:05:20.000 And the depiction of the Hamas figure is based on Hamas senior official Ghazi Khamad, who was most recently seen explaining away the slaughter of Jews and then pledging to repeat that slaughter.
00:05:30.000 Here is what Ghazi Khamad looks like in real life, and here is what he looks like in the cartoon. 0.54
00:05:33.000 This is very obviously Ghazi Khamad. 0.86
00:05:36.000 No matter, the chemosynics in the Washington Post offices promptly intimidated the Washington Post into fully pulling the cartoon based on false accusations of racism.
00:05:46.000 Editorial page editor David Shipley said, quote, A cartoon we published by Michael Ramirez on the war in Gaza, a cartoon whose publication I approved was seen by many readers as racist.
00:05:54.000 This was not my intent.
00:05:55.000 I saw the drawing as a caricature of a specific individual, the Hamas spokesperson who celebrated the attacks on unarmed civilians in Israel.
00:06:02.000 However, the reactions to the image convinced me that I had missed something profound and divisive, and I regret that.
00:06:07.000 Again, it's the reaction that convinced him.
00:06:09.000 It's not the actual content, it's the reaction.
00:06:11.000 The angrier people get at him, the more they must be justified.
00:06:15.000 Signed up Mudalo, a staffer at the Washington Post celebrated on the company Slack.
00:06:19.000 Mudalo, unsurprisingly, is pretty obviously a radical pro-Hamasnik. 0.87
00:06:22.000 Her Twitter feed contains allegations of Israeli genocide and blames Israel for the bombing of the Al-Aqli Hospital.
00:06:27.000 It was Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
00:06:29.000 Her feed contains precisely zero condemnations of Hamas.
00:06:32.000 But the Post caved to her and her allies.
00:06:35.000 They didn't cave to her because of the inherent content of the cartoon.
00:06:38.000 In fact, here's another cartoon that's still up on the post YouTube page.
00:06:42.000 It is a cartoon that is effectively a blood libel, falsely depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu punching a Palestinian baby in the face while ignoring a Hamas terrorist.
00:06:52.000 The caption reads, Israel pounds Hamas targets in Gaza. 0.90
00:06:55.000 The idea being that Bibi is looking specifically at the terrorist, ignoring the terrorist to punch and presumably kill the baby. 0.97
00:07:02.000 That is a blood libel.
00:07:03.000 It is still up on the Washington Post YouTube page.
00:07:06.000 This is the story in the media these days.
00:07:08.000 They will defend Hitler supporters who hate Israel, but they will dump cartoons that label Hamas terrorists.
00:07:12.000 That is presumably why the New York Times spent its day yesterday defending stringers, quote unquote, who were participating in Hamas's terrorist attacks of October 7th.
00:07:20.000 There are literal pictures of some of those stringers carrying grenades to the actual attacks.
00:07:26.000 Mustn't upset the Islamic radicals. 0.98
00:07:28.000 And the Islamic radicals know that the spineless media will cave to their demands. 0.97
00:07:31.000 That's why rioters invaded the offices of the New York Times yesterday.
00:07:34.000 According to the New York Daily News, Quote, a demonstrator set off a smoke bomb as about 30 others breached the lobby where witnesses said security guards let them briefly chant.
00:07:43.000 One witness said, quote, it was 15 to 20 of them doing the actual damage with a guy taking pictures.
00:07:47.000 The guy would set up his camera and then they would be spray painting the windows.
00:07:50.000 Here's some footage of what it looked like last night outside the New York Times building and inside of the New York Times building.
00:07:56.000 to the giant crowd gathered right outside of the New York Times building chanting
00:08:03.000 They also make sure to spray paint a few cop cars with free Gaza 0.97
00:08:15.000 And where's law enforcement?
00:08:17.000 Why aren't people being arrested?
00:08:18.000 Why has it become open season on cops?
00:08:22.000 They also spray-painted a cop car with IDF KKK.
00:08:25.000 Since when is taxpayer-funded property open season for pro-Khamosnyks? 0.98
00:08:30.000 The protesters who entered the New York Times building claimed against all available evidence that they were invading the Times building because the Times was somehow pro-Israel, which is absurd.
00:08:40.000 The New York Times is the most anti-Israel publication in major legacy media.
00:08:44.000 Saying that the Times is somehow pro-Israel is like saying that Pravda is too pro-American.
00:08:49.000 Now, the protesters know that. 0.99
00:08:50.000 They're not all the way stupid. 0.98
00:08:51.000 The purpose of their mini-riot was simple. 0.95
00:08:53.000 Keep the New York Times intimidated, believing that the anger they're demonstrating must be the result of some sort of oppression.
00:09:00.000 Again, that's how it works in the media.
00:09:02.000 The angrier the supposedly oppressed person, the more they deserve your acquiescence and surrender.
00:09:07.000 Intimidation does work. 0.99
00:09:09.000 All of this is reminiscent of the Charlie Hebdo scandal of 2006, when that publication printed a cartoon of Muhammad, the prophet, saying, quote, it's hard being loved by jerks. 0.96
00:09:18.000 Amid the massive protests, French President Jean Chirac condemned the magazine for, quote, overt provocations. 0.89
00:09:24.000 Well, you know what that spurred?
00:09:25.000 A bunch of terrorism against Charlie Hebdo.
00:09:28.000 In 2011, the offices were firebombed by Islamic radicals.
00:09:31.000 In 2015, two Islamic radicals murdered 12 people in the Charlie Hebdo offices.
00:09:35.000 The same people who in 2006 were claiming that Charlie Hebdo was the aggressor, by 2015 were out in the streets saying, Je suis Charlie Hebdo, which was a lie.
00:09:43.000 They were never in favor of Charlie Hebdo's speech.
00:09:46.000 They were in favor of weakness.
00:09:48.000 Weakness breeds aggression.
00:09:49.000 The aggressive push because they sense the weakness.
00:09:53.000 This is what we are seeing in the streets. 0.99
00:09:55.000 It's why random rallies now feature overt threats to kill Jews. 0.93
00:09:58.000 There was one in Florida yesterday. 0.98
00:09:59.000 I'd go right now! 1.00
00:10:02.000 To kill you, I'd go right now! 1.00
00:10:04.000 To kill you, I'd go right now! 1.00
00:10:05.000 I'd go right now! 1.00
00:10:08.000 That's a protester saying, I'd go right now to kill you. 0.99
00:10:10.000 Promise me, I'd go right now for my people. 0.99
00:10:12.000 Promise me.
00:10:13.000 I'd go right now for my people. 1.00
00:10:14.000 I promise you, right now, I'd go for my people to kill you. 1.00
00:10:17.000 I'd die for my people! 1.00
00:10:18.000 You're scared!
00:10:19.000 You're scared! 1.00
00:10:23.000 For his people, he says, he would go to the Gaza Strip and he would kill you. 0.94
00:10:27.000 This sort of behavior is absolutely run-of-the-mill at pro-Hamas rallies.
00:10:30.000 This is not a peaceful march.
00:10:33.000 These are not just people who are chanting for a political ceasefire.
00:10:36.000 The intimidation is the point.
00:10:39.000 It is the reason for increasingly violent attacks on Jews internationally.
00:10:42.000 It's why there was an attempted shooting at a Montreal Jewish school yesterday.
00:10:46.000 What should the West do?
00:10:47.000 The answer is to be un-intimidated.
00:10:50.000 Do not cave in to the radicals.
00:10:52.000 If they get aggressive, they should be confronted.
00:10:53.000 If they get violent, they should be arrested by law enforcement.
00:10:56.000 That is literally the job of law enforcement.
00:10:58.000 If they are not citizens and they support Hamas, they should be deported to countries that better reflect their awful values. 0.98
00:11:04.000 No more weakness, unless you want more terrorists, more terrorist supporters, and more dead innocents.
00:11:09.000 Hey, in just one second, We are going to get to the West continuing to start to cave, because again, the oppressor-oppressed matrix is the death of the West.
00:11:18.000 It is the death of the West.
00:11:19.000 We'll get to that in one second.
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00:12:24.000 Meanwhile, the weakness of the West is being made apparent pretty much every single day.
00:12:31.000 All these talks about how Israel needs more humanitarian pauses, they need a ceasefire, more humanitarian... Okay, so here's the thing.
00:12:37.000 Israel right now, by the available data, is being more targeted in an urban area than literally any army in human history.
00:12:45.000 The actual ratio of terrorists killed to innocents killed is probably about 1 to 1.
00:12:49.000 Now that's awful.
00:12:50.000 That's terrible.
00:12:50.000 It's also entirely because Hamas' strategy is to hide behind civilians, knowing that if they can get the media on their side, that if they can get the lefties on their side, if they can demonstrate anger in the streets, that there will be an attempt to call off the dogs.
00:13:04.000 There will be an attempt to preserve Hamas in its position of power. 0.74
00:13:08.000 That is the goal here.
00:13:09.000 And again, the goal is to intimidate.
00:13:12.000 This is why you have seen a widespread media attempt to pin Joe Biden's personal unpopularity on his support for Israel.
00:13:17.000 But that's not where the data are.
00:13:19.000 The reality is that Biden's support for Israel is quite popular in the United States.
00:13:23.000 The American people do not support Hamas.
00:13:26.000 The reality is that by 84 to 16 percent in the latest Harvard-Capps-Harris poll, Americans support Israel over Hamas, and just as many believe that Israel is justified in its response.
00:13:37.000 This is a piece written by Mark Penn at the Wall Street Journal.
00:13:40.000 He was a pollster and advisor to Bill and Hillary Clinton.
00:13:43.000 So it's not coming from a Republican who wishes to see Joe Biden win.
00:13:45.000 It's coming from a Democrat who wishes to see Joe Biden win.
00:13:50.000 According to Mark Penn, he says it's true that the 16% who support Hamas include many Democrats, as 18 to 24-year-olds split only 52 to 48 in Israel's favor.
00:13:58.000 But are those Democrats going to vote for Donald Trump, who moved the U.S.
00:14:01.000 embassy to Jerusalem?
00:14:02.000 In the end, they will come home, as they always do.
00:14:04.000 Bringing home swing voters will take more than Israel policy.
00:14:07.000 Israel ranks seventh among the issues of chief concern to American voters.
00:14:12.000 If Joe Biden can't make progress on the other priorities, he's reduced to running a negative campaign against Trump.
00:14:18.000 But the reality is that Joe Biden's Israel position is actually widely popular.
00:14:23.000 That is why you are seeing these protests grow in size and virulence as they attempt to convince Joe Biden that if he doesn't push Israel off the mark, then they will somehow lead to his defeat.
00:14:31.000 This is why you see Rashida Tlaib threatening that her followers aren't going to vote for Biden.
00:14:34.000 Again, Mark Penn is correct.
00:14:36.000 What are they going to do, vote for Trump?
00:14:37.000 Trump's the most pro-Israel president in American history, bar none.
00:14:40.000 This is why you see Joe Biden's staffers leaking routinely to the media in an attempt to undercut him.
00:14:47.000 In the New York Times today, remember, this is it.
00:14:49.000 The New York Times, we should remember, according to all of these protesters, is a pro-Israel newspaper, which again, insane.
00:14:55.000 So they printed a story today called, Israeli forces have limited time in Gaza, US officials say.
00:15:00.000 Who are these people?
00:15:01.000 Quote, as senior Biden officials push Israel to do more to minimize civilian casualties, General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Wednesday he was worried each civilian killed in Gaza could generate future members of Hamas, which, by the way, this is the dumbest argument you ever hear. 0.89
00:15:15.000 It's really a stupid argument. 0.98
00:15:17.000 That is the same argument as, oh, my gosh, you know, during World War Two, if we killed too many Nazis and too many civilians get killed while we're killing the Nazis, we're just going to create new Nazis. 1.00
00:15:26.000 It's the most self-serving Catch-22 argument of all time.
00:15:28.000 Did anyone worry about this when we were killing everyone in ISIS?
00:15:31.000 We're like, oh my gosh, if we kill too many members of ISIS, you know how many people it's going to radicalize?
00:15:35.000 Millions of people all over the world will be radicalized by us taking out ISIS.
00:15:38.000 That is not the way this works.
00:15:40.000 Again, what creates terrorists is hope of defeating the West.
00:15:44.000 That is why they multiply.
00:15:45.000 When you think that a movement is going to lose, you typically don't join the movement.
00:15:50.000 But according to the New York Times, General Brown's comments offered a rare glimpse of division between Israel and the Biden administration.
00:15:57.000 It came as the United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, said the number of civilians killed in the Gaza Strip showed him there was something clearly wrong with Israel's military operations against Hamas.
00:16:05.000 Now again, the stats that are coming out from the Gaza Strip are solely from Hamas.
00:16:09.000 Hamas lies about this stuff all the time.
00:16:12.000 They label Hamas terrorists as civilians all the time.
00:16:17.000 Very often you'll see a stat come out like 80 people killed 70 of them civilians and it turns out 70 of them were terrorists and 10 of them were civilians because it was just a guy who's 18 years old with a gun but he was actually just wearing jeans and a t-shirt he's not in uniform according to the New York Times however The level of carnage has deeply shaken Israel and shaped its military response.
00:16:35.000 The longer the Israeli military campaign continues, the greater the chance the conflict will spark a wider war, several officials in the Biden administration said.
00:16:41.000 That, of course, is, again, a lie, actually.
00:16:43.000 If Israel radically escalates and starts going ho-hog just to get this thing done with, that escalates the chances of a harsh response. 0.63
00:16:50.000 There's been low-level conflict in the Middle East for literally my lifetime, my parents' lifetime, as long as Israel's been around.
00:16:58.000 The only times it has broken into war is when there is an overt feeling that Israel can be overcome. 0.92
00:17:03.000 So the Biden administration, again, is going wobbly.
00:17:06.000 That is not a particular shock, and that is due, once again, to all of the public pressure that's being brought to bear.
00:17:11.000 Bye!
00:17:12.000 Pro-Hamas protesters and their allies in the media.
00:17:15.000 This presumably is why Joe Biden is out there saying, I've been asking Israel for longer pauses for humanitarian causes.
00:17:20.000 Israel is literally taking multiple hour gaps in the middle of the day.
00:17:23.000 There's lots of tape of this.
00:17:25.000 And they are guarding civilian corridors.
00:17:27.000 It's not Hamas guarding the civilians.
00:17:29.000 It's Israel spending its own blood and treasure to guard civilian corridors so that Palestinians can walk from the areas that Israel is targeting away from those areas in down south. 0.81
00:17:38.000 Israel has now set up a field hospital for Palestinian Arabs.
00:17:42.000 On the beach in Gaza.
00:17:43.000 Why?
00:17:44.000 Because when they are going, they're going to have to go into Al-Shifa because Al-Shifa Hospital has been Hamas's military headquarters for literally two decades. 0.84
00:17:50.000 When they do that, they're going to have to move sick patients from one place to another.
00:17:54.000 Hamas, meanwhile, is just waiting for Israel to kill them so they can brag to the cameras about it. 0.82
00:17:58.000 But here is Joe Biden doing this silly routine about how Israel needs longer humanitarian pauses.
00:18:05.000 Did you ask for a three-day pause to get Yahoo?
00:18:08.000 You know I've been asked for a pause for a lot more than three days.
00:18:12.000 Yes.
00:18:12.000 Did you ask him to pause for three days to get the hospitals out for that?
00:18:19.000 Yes.
00:18:19.000 I've asked for even a longer pause for some of them.
00:18:22.000 Okay, but if Hamas is not actually going to release the hostages, then it's just allowing them time to regroup and rearm.
00:18:28.000 The only reason he's doing this is, once again, the Biden administration is trying to play it both sides.
00:18:32.000 They're trying to say, yeah, we're pro-Israel, yeah, we're backing, and it's true, they are. 0.99
00:18:36.000 And at the same time, they're simultaneously undercutting that by claiming that Israel is violating human rights, which is not true, by claiming that Israel needs to do more to protect civilians, even though Israel is doing more militarily to protect civilians than any army in history, including the American army in places like Iraq or Afghanistan.
00:18:52.000 Again, all of this undercuts, it actually undercuts the ability of Israel to finish off the bad guys. 0.81
00:18:59.000 Now, there is going to be a response by the West to all of this.
00:19:02.000 That response is slow-boiling.
00:19:04.000 When it comes to a head, it's going to be really ugly.
00:19:06.000 We'll get to that in just one second first.
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00:21:15.000 Well, folks, meanwhile, the West is going to have to respond at some point to the fact
00:21:18.000 that it is honeycombed with people who support actual terrorism.
00:21:22.000 And that's starting to happen already in Europe.
00:21:24.000 It's going to come to a head tomorrow in London.
00:21:27.000 So London has seen hundreds of thousands of people protesting in the streets for Hamas, screaming about how Israel should be obliterated, screaming antisemitic slogans, firing fireworks at officers.
00:21:38.000 Defacing historic statues, attempting to deface the Cenotaph, which is a central monument to the dead in World War I, and then it was extended to World War II.
00:21:46.000 Well, tomorrow is Armistice Day in London, and again, they're expecting a giant pro-Hamas rally.
00:21:53.000 The goal of that is, again, intimidation.
00:21:57.000 And it is expected that there is going to be a fair bit of controversy, maybe some violence, because some of the people who are gonna show up to counter protest are people who are attempting to protect those monuments.
00:22:09.000 One of the people who's come under fire is Suella Braverman.
00:22:12.000 She's the Home Secretary.
00:22:15.000 She's excellent, Suella Braverman, by the way.
00:22:17.000 She gave a speech at AEI recently all about the failure of the West to take stock of the people entering the country.
00:22:23.000 She's totally right about this.
00:22:24.000 Well, now she's under pressure. 0.96
00:22:26.000 Because Rishi Sunak is thinking about maybe dumping her.
00:22:30.000 She wrote an article accusing police of bias in allowing the pro-Hamas protests.
00:22:34.000 She claimed that some senior officers apparently play favorites and apparently the Prime Minister didn't sign off on all of that.
00:22:41.000 Downing Street says it is still investigating how the article containing an inflammatory comparison between pro-Palestinian mobs and marches in Northern Ireland was sent to the Times for publication.
00:22:51.000 Sunak is not firing her yet.
00:22:52.000 She claimed that mob protesters were largely ignored by officers, even when clearly breaking the law.
00:22:58.000 That is 100% true.
00:22:58.000 I mean, you can see it happening in real time.
00:23:01.000 I mean, we have tape of it.
00:23:03.000 We have protesters literally firing fireworks at officers in London, and the officers doing nothing.
00:23:09.000 And meanwhile, telling people who are holding British flags, they can't put their British flags right there.
00:23:13.000 We have video of police officers in London arresting people for saying that pro-Hamasniks should be deported.
00:23:19.000 And meanwhile, you have pro-Hamas protesters who are intimidating, breaking windows, doing what they do.
00:23:28.000 So naturally, all of the controversy is about Swellow Braverman noticing.
00:23:31.000 This is the way that this insanity works.
00:23:33.000 Is it Swellow Braverman noticed?
00:23:34.000 And that means that she's bad.
00:23:36.000 According to the UK Independent, Rishi Sunak is under pressure to sack Azuela Braverman after she defied Downing Street by publishing an article accusing those police officers of bias over protests in support of Palestine.
00:23:47.000 But that's not what the protests are about.
00:23:49.000 My friend Douglas Murray has pointed this out.
00:23:51.000 If you actually look at the tape of the protests, this is not a quote-unquote pro-Palestine protest.
00:23:56.000 It is a pro-Hamas protest. 0.72
00:23:57.000 That's why they weren't protesting against Hamas five minutes ago.
00:24:01.000 Everyone understands that even if you're an advocate of the two state solution, which again is fantasy land, given the fact that the Palestinians themselves are incredibly radicalized and have no desire for a two state solution.
00:24:11.000 But even if you were a fan, you would be in favor of Hamas being gotten rid of. 0.52
00:24:14.000 But nobody is actually talking about getting rid of Hamas.
00:24:18.000 So it is very, very likely, actually, that there will be some sort of conflict.
00:24:24.000 The Royal British Legion has defended pro-Palestinian demonstrators' right to protest amid a furious row over whether a rally should be allowed to go ahead on Armistice Day.
00:24:32.000 The Royal British Legion has urged protesters to be peaceful and show respect as mourners flock to London this weekend to remember war dead.
00:24:38.000 In a statement, the Armed Forces Charity said the British Armed Forces play a vital role in protecting the rights and freedoms of everyone in UK society, including the right to protest.
00:24:45.000 We are not aware of any protests during the RBL Remembrance event.
00:24:48.000 We hope events can go ahead over the weekend without disruption.
00:24:51.000 Yeah, we'll see.
00:24:51.000 Yeah, we'll see.
00:24:54.000 Apparently, the latest ProChamas march through London is due to take place not only tomorrow, but they've now mapped out where exactly they're going.
00:25:02.000 The six organizing groups behind the demonstration had faced calls from the Met Police to postpone their march on the grounds that it would clash with Remembrance Services.
00:25:09.000 So first of all, if you have a march that you know is going to clash with the Remembrance Service for Fallen Soldiers in the UK, that should say something about the marchers.
00:25:17.000 That should say something about the marchers.
00:25:19.000 If they were marching, For peace and love, there'd be no clash with the possibility of people who are marching to remember war dead.
00:25:28.000 It's pretty obvious the orientation of many of these marchers.
00:25:31.000 The Met's Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley ultimately decided to give the march a green light.
00:25:35.000 The laws created by Parliament are clear.
00:25:36.000 There is absolutely no power to ban protests, said Sir Mark.
00:25:39.000 He added the marchers had shown a complete willingness to stay away from the Cenotaph and Whitehall and have no intention of disrupting the nation's remembrance event.
00:25:46.000 Uh-huh.
00:25:47.000 Mhm.
00:25:48.000 We will see if it goes quite as they think it is going to go.
00:25:51.000 Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen, over in France, is beginning to gain more support because of this.
00:25:58.000 The simple fact of the matter is that France, which has an extremely large Muslim population, the Muslim population of France right now is about 3.4 million Muslims.
00:26:09.000 It's about 5% of the total population.
00:26:11.000 Pew Research Center predicts that the Muslim population will rise to between 8.6 million, which is about like 12.5% of the country in 2050.
00:26:20.000 This is one of the growing threats that people are perceiving because again, their entire district of Paris That, again, is very controversial to say, but it's reality.
00:26:31.000 These are no-go zones.
00:26:33.000 People leave them alone.
00:26:33.000 The police do not want to go in there.
00:26:35.000 The same thing happens in areas of London, by the way.
00:26:38.000 There are certain precincts where the police just do not want to go.
00:26:41.000 In fact, under the high migration scenario that Pew Research estimates, they say that the percentage, here would be the percentage of Muslims in the EU by 2050, under a high migration scenario, 30% of Sweden, 17% of Norway, 15% of Finland, 20% of Germany, 18% of France, 20% of Austria, 17% of the UK.
00:27:06.000 Those are very, very high numbers.
00:27:08.000 Because again, a huge percentage of this population, as we are seeing from these protests right now, is not in fact assimilating to Western values.
00:27:16.000 Even under a lower estimate.
00:27:18.000 Those are big, big numbers.
00:27:20.000 And so the blowback has begun.
00:27:21.000 And you're starting to see right-wing parties who are gaining credibility because of this.
00:27:26.000 So Marine Le Pen, who is the leader of the National Rally Party, originally founded by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
00:27:31.000 Jean-Marie was a pretty vicious anti-Semite.
00:27:33.000 Marine has not been, at least in policy or practice.
00:27:38.000 And so Marine is trying to now join.
00:27:39.000 She, again, was in a runoff for the leadership of the country in the last election cycle.
00:27:46.000 And she is now joining in an anti-anti-Semitism rally, like, to fight anti-Semitism, because the case that she is making is that France has imported too many radical Muslims, which, of course, actually happens to be true. 1.00
00:27:56.000 According to the Associated Press, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has set off a cacophony of criticism over her plans to attend a weekend march to protest rising anti-Semitism in France.
00:28:05.000 Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne, numerous political parties and citizens are to attend that Sunday march.
00:28:08.000 Le Pen has said she and her national party, rally party, also will be there.
00:28:14.000 The party's current president, Jordan Bardella, said in an interview he doesn't think Jean-Marie Le Pen is anti-Semitic, a remark that revived the link between past and present.
00:28:23.000 Government spokesperson Olivier Varennes said Wednesday the Marine Le Pen's party does not have a place at what is dubbed as a grand civic march.
00:28:30.000 But he said everybody is free to show up.
00:28:32.000 Again, one of the things that's gonna happen as you see a rising level of radical Muslim activity 1.00
00:28:38.000 in the West, you are going to see parties like Marine Le Pen who are going to start seeing
00:28:43.000 electoral victory.
00:28:45.000 That is a thing that is going to continue to happen because it turns out that eventually the weakness ends.
00:28:50.000 Eventually people in the West get tired of this sort of stuff.
00:28:53.000 And the blowback is extremely real.
00:28:55.000 It'll be fascinating to see what happens tomorrow in London.
00:29:00.000 It'll be a very good early indicator of just where the West is going if the current status of weakness toward radical Islam continues.
00:29:09.000 Okay, meanwhile...
00:29:10.000 Joe Biden is continuing to have serious electoral problems.
00:29:14.000 We'll get to those in just one moment.
00:29:16.000 First, Veterans Day is now upon us.
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00:30:17.000 Okay, so...
00:30:19.000 Joe Biden is having trouble on a number of fronts.
00:30:20.000 The media are trying to chalk it up to the Israel-Hamas war.
00:30:24.000 That is not why he's having trouble.
00:30:25.000 In fact, his approval ratings are basically stagnant.
00:30:28.000 They've been stagnant for quite a while because he's not very good at, you know, the president thing.
00:30:32.000 I'm looking at his approval ratings right now, and what you see is that Joe Biden's approval ratings right now, basically the same as they were, you know, back in like July of 2022.
00:30:42.000 Nothing has really changed.
00:30:43.000 She's been pretty stagnant.
00:30:44.000 The reason for that is because there are a bunch of boiling problems.
00:30:48.000 One of those problems continues to be illegal immigration.
00:30:51.000 In fact, tape emerged yesterday.
00:30:52.000 This is not gonna be good for Joe Biden.
00:30:53.000 Tape emerged yesterday of illegal immigrants on their way to the United States.
00:30:56.000 And as they were marching, they were cheering Joe Biden's name.
00:31:01.000 Biden! Biden! Biden!
00:31:14.000 Well, that's every Republican attack ad from now until the election.
00:31:17.000 It's just young men. 0.93
00:31:19.000 I mean, it's entirely young men there, right?
00:31:21.000 Not a lot of women and children in that crowd. 0.97
00:31:24.000 These are the supposed refugees, and they're cheering Joe Biden's name. 0.89
00:31:28.000 When you connect that to the fact that the illegal immigration is so bad that Texas literally had to, this week, absorb land in the Rio Grande in an attempt to stop illegal immigration.
00:31:40.000 According to the UK Daily Mail, the Texas General Land Office announced in April state troopers could clear out two islands near Eagle Pass.
00:31:47.000 Five months later, Land Commissioner John Buckingham added another in Fronton as part of Operation Flattop.
00:31:52.000 Texas pointed to old maps that claim the islands in the middle of the Rio Grande were always part of Texas.
00:31:57.000 Fronton Island is the largest.
00:31:58.000 It measures about 170 acres.
00:32:00.000 Once full of lush greenery, it has been stripped to dirt and lined with barbed wire in the past week.
00:32:04.000 Why?
00:32:04.000 Because illegal immigrants were showing up and then they were using this as the launching point to cross the Rio Grande.
00:32:10.000 Fronton Island, known as the single most dangerous spot on the southern border, is cleared to patrol, Buckingham tweeted on November 1st.
00:32:16.000 Lieutenant Chris Olivares told News 4 San Antonio the reclaimed islands were mostly used for illegal border crossings.
00:32:21.000 He said, we see the influx of illegal immigrants coming across.
00:32:23.000 They would use those pieces of land as a refuge.
00:32:26.000 Not just Mexican migrants either.
00:32:27.000 Data from the Department of Homeland Security showed thousands of Chinese migrants illegally crossed the Rio Grande by way of Mexico in 2023.
00:32:33.000 By the way, there are terrorist threats who cross the Rio Grande too.
00:32:35.000 It turns out that when you can't actually clear people, Who are crossing the border, you have no idea who they are.
00:32:42.000 Cartel soldiers have been crossing the border using these islands.
00:32:44.000 So Texas literally had to claim islands in the middle of the Rio Grande just to clear them of the possibility of being used for illegal immigration.
00:32:50.000 Meanwhile, in your latest horrible illegal immigration crime story, Jazz Shaw reporting over at Hot Air.
00:32:57.000 This week, ICE managed to arrest an illegal immigrant from Honduras in Virginia.
00:33:01.000 He was charged with felony rape, by force, threat, or intimidation, abduction by force, and assault on a family member.
00:33:05.000 That's bad enough by itself, but after digging into this dirtbag's background story, it becomes even worse.
00:33:09.000 This is the third time he has been arrested on similar charges, and yet somehow he keeps winding up back on the streets.
00:33:15.000 They know where, when, and how he got into the country.
00:33:17.000 How many more like him are lurking out there?
00:33:20.000 Apparently, he entered the United States on an unknown date at an unknown location, He was not inspected or admitted by an immigration official.
00:33:27.000 He was previously arrested by Border Patrol near Roma, Texas in June 2021.
00:33:31.000 He was then given that famous notice to appear before a DOJ immigration judge.
00:33:35.000 And then he just absconded.
00:33:37.000 He was later arrested in July 2023 by the Herndon Police Department and charged with felony rape by force, threat or intimidation, abduction by force, and assault on a family member.
00:33:45.000 So he's been in the country since 2021.
00:33:47.000 He was detained at the border.
00:33:48.000 He was told to show up in court.
00:33:50.000 And then he just went and did like a series of violent crimes.
00:33:54.000 There's a lot of this going on in the United States.
00:33:56.000 If you want to make Donald Trump president, this is a great way to do it.
00:33:59.000 And Joe Biden has been facilitating that.
00:34:01.000 Meanwhile, when it comes to the economy, it is clear that Jerome Powell really has no tools at his disposal.
00:34:06.000 He really doesn't know what to do at this point.
00:34:08.000 The fact is that the economy continues to run hot, despite the fact that the interest rates are now up well above 5%.
00:34:15.000 If it continues to run hot at this rate, the inflation is going to continue.
00:34:18.000 Not only is the inflation going to continue, wage price spirals are going to continue, which means you feel poorer tomorrow than you did yesterday.
00:34:25.000 Even if the rate of inflation is decreasing, inflation itself is still increasing.
00:34:29.000 Which is why yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would not declare an end to its historic interest rate increases until it had more evidence that inflation was actually cooling.
00:34:39.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, Price and wage pressures have eased recently.
00:34:43.000 Powell is disappointed, however, because he thinks that the Fed is more likely to tighten policy than ease it if any change is warranted.
00:34:51.000 He pointed to earlier inflation head fakes, past episodes in which price pressures ebbed for a little while before surprising Fed officials by picking it up again.
00:35:00.000 He said they would monitor economic conditions closely to avoid both the risk of having been misled by a few months of data, as well as the risk of having raised rates too high.
00:35:08.000 So those interest rates could be going up anyway.
00:35:10.000 And by the way, if you're looking for a new mortgage, again, we have not actually seen the bubble burst yet.
00:35:15.000 Because the mortgage rates are so unbelievably high, people are not actually selling their houses.
00:35:18.000 Because they're not selling their houses, that means that there's no inventory.
00:35:21.000 Because there's no inventory, the price has not yet dropped.
00:35:23.000 There will come a point here where people start to lose their jobs and can't afford their current mortgages, and then you are going to see a serious real estate bubble burst.
00:35:31.000 I will say one thing for Jerome Powell.
00:35:33.000 I was very amused yesterday.
00:35:34.000 Jerome Powell was confronted by protesters.
00:35:37.000 Protesters started trying to interrupt him, and he dropped an F-bomb.
00:35:41.000 Here's what it sounded like.
00:35:44.000 GDP growth in the third quarter was quite strong, but like most forecasters, we expect growth to moderate in coming quarters.
00:35:52.000 Of course.
00:35:53.000 Thank you.
00:35:55.000 Thank you very much.
00:35:56.000 Thank you very much.
00:35:57.000 Thank you.
00:35:57.000 Thank you very much.
00:36:01.000 Thank you very much.
00:36:04.000 Thank you.
00:36:08.000 Just close the door.
00:36:11.000 At least that.
00:36:15.000 I will say that I am enjoying the spectacle.
00:36:17.000 There are some people who are now treating protesters with precisely the scorn they deserve.
00:36:21.000 I got a hat tip here to John Fetterman.
00:36:23.000 I know, these are words I never thought I would say. 0.93
00:36:25.000 John Fetterman has been absolutely stalwart against ridiculous pro-Hamas protesters.
00:36:29.000 He's papered his walls with posters of the kidnap by Hamas.
00:36:32.000 Yesterday, he walked through a pro-Hamas protest line holding an Israeli flag.
00:36:37.000 And then when they asked him about when they started chanting, I mean, guys, I've got brain damage.
00:36:40.000 I don't even know what you're saying.
00:36:42.000 Amazing.
00:36:43.000 Amazing.
00:36:43.000 So like, points to John Fetterman.
00:36:45.000 Again, words I never thought that I would say.
00:36:47.000 In just one second, we'll get to the state of the U.S.
00:36:49.000 Senate come 2024.
00:36:50.000 So Republicans have been losing a series of elections, been really bad, but they now have a possible breakthrough in the Senate come 2024.
00:36:57.000 We'll get to that momentarily.
00:36:58.000 First, If you take a look around your house, you'll notice that your window treatments are probably pretty old.
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00:37:06.000 Or you saw blinds.
00:37:07.000 You're like, ah, they're blinds.
00:37:07.000 What's the big deal?
00:37:08.000 And now, now that I've said it, you're looking right at the windows.
00:37:11.000 I know you are.
00:37:11.000 And you're saying to yourself, yeah, those are pretty ugly.
00:37:13.000 You need to replace them.
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00:38:05.000 Meanwhile, in actual good news for Republicans, Joe Manchin has now said that he is not going to run for re-election in the Senate in West Virginia.
00:38:12.000 West Virginia is a very, very heavily red state.
00:38:15.000 West Virginia, in fact, is the state that voted most for Donald Trump in the last election cycle.
00:38:19.000 Yesterday, Manchin said that he would not run for another term in West Virginia.
00:38:24.000 He's 76 years old, but that doesn't mean that his political career is over.
00:38:27.000 As we'll see, he may even pose more of a threat to Joe Biden than just that.
00:38:31.000 His term ends January 2025, which means, of course, that he is going to- his seat will be up for election in 2024.
00:38:37.000 Here he was announcing yesterday that he would not be running for re-election in the state.
00:38:43.000 After months of deliberation and long conversation with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia.
00:38:53.000 I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate.
00:39:01.000 But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.
00:39:12.000 To the West Virginians who have put their trust in me and fought side by side to make our state better, it has been my honor of my life to serve you.
00:39:21.000 Thank you.
00:39:24.000 Okay, so, Manchin out in West Virginia.
00:39:26.000 What does that mean?
00:39:26.000 It means Republicans pick up one seat.
00:39:27.000 Remember, the Senate right now is split 51-49, Democrats to Republicans.
00:39:33.000 So that seat flips, now you got a 50-50.
00:39:34.000 So that means Republicans have to pick up one more seat.
00:39:37.000 Now here is the thing.
00:39:38.000 There are zero Republican senators facing re-election in purple states, in states that Trump lost in either of the last two presidential elections.
00:39:46.000 There are six Democrat senators who are facing re-election states in states that Trump won in at least 2016 or 2020.
00:39:53.000 So in purple states, six senators up, zero Republicans, all Democrats, right?
00:39:59.000 Six of those senators are Democrats.
00:40:01.000 So what exactly do those races look like?
00:40:02.000 Well, they look...
00:40:03.000 Unless Republicans blow it, which Republicans have a magical way of doing it.
00:40:06.000 I mean, I have to say, I'm astonished at the unbroken chain of Republican failure over the course of the last six years or so.
00:40:14.000 In Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema announced that she was going to run as an independent.
00:40:18.000 That is because the Democratic Party basically undercut her because she was making too many deals with the other side, having too many conversations with Mitt Romney and the like.
00:40:26.000 Well, that has now opened up a three-way race between Kyrsten Sinema as independent, Ruben Gallego as a Democrat, And Carrie Lake, presumably, as the Senate opponent in Arizona.
00:40:37.000 Now, Carrie Lake just lost a gubernatorial race over there. 1.00
00:40:39.000 It is quite possible that she would even lose in a three-way race.
00:40:43.000 That Sinema would pick up some of the moderate Republicans, and that she'd pick up some of the moderate Democrats, and that she loses, but Gallego somehow sneaks in.
00:40:50.000 That's gonna be a very hotly fought race, and an uncomfortable one for Republicans, because Republicans have decided in Arizona to, just more cowbell is the solution, apparently.
00:40:59.000 Meanwhile, over in Michigan, Democrats have a seat.
00:41:03.000 It's been vacated by Debbie Stabenow.
00:41:05.000 She's announced her retirement.
00:41:07.000 She was re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote.
00:41:10.000 Depending on who Republicans nominate in Michigan and the more urban state of the Michigan Republican Party, they could theoretically win a seat there.
00:41:16.000 It's gonna be difficult.
00:41:17.000 Michigan, again, the Michigan Republican Party is currently bankrupt.
00:41:19.000 They don't have any ability to take out debt, is my understanding.
00:41:23.000 And not only that, they've had a history of nominating candidates who just wildly underperform in general elections.
00:41:31.000 But that's only two states.
00:41:32.000 Here are the other states.
00:41:32.000 Montana is a traditionally red state.
00:41:35.000 John Tester is seeking reelection in 2024.
00:41:36.000 He won in 2018 with 50.3% of the vote, but he's going to be on the ballot presumably at the same time as Trump in 2024.
00:41:46.000 So running in 2018, as a Democrat and Republican state, not quite the same thing as running at the same time as a Republican president who in Montana should have some coattails.
00:41:54.000 So you could easily see Republicans picking up that seat.
00:41:56.000 So that would give Republicans a 51-49 majority.
00:42:00.000 In Ohio, Ohio's still a swing state, kinda sorta, but Ohio is deeply red.
00:42:05.000 Trump won the state widely in 2016 and 2020.
00:42:09.000 Sherrod Brown is looking for re-election.
00:42:12.000 He won in 2018 with 53.4% of the vote.
00:42:15.000 So Sherrod Brown is a much more formidable candidate than probably Jon Tester is in Montana.
00:42:20.000 However, is that a seat the Republicans could win if they don't run somebody terrible?
00:42:24.000 Sure.
00:42:24.000 That is definitely a winnable seat.
00:42:25.000 Again, it's going to be a presidential year.
00:42:27.000 Pennsylvania.
00:42:27.000 Republicans look like they are actually going to run somebody good this time.
00:42:31.000 That presumably would be Dave McCormick, who is running for the Senate in Pennsylvania.
00:42:36.000 Democratic Senator Bob Casey is looking for a fourth term.
00:42:39.000 He was re-elected by a wide margin in 2018, but the state seems to have gotten closer along these lines, and McCormick is a good candidate.
00:42:46.000 In Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election again. 0.57
00:42:50.000 She won widely in 2018.
00:42:52.000 The question is to whether Republicans will select somebody who is sort of more middle-of-the-road in Wisconsin in order to win the seat.
00:42:58.000 Or whether they get out the vote in wide margin in 24 is really the question.
00:43:01.000 So Trump's going to have to have coattails.
00:43:03.000 Even if Trump doesn't have coattails, Republicans have a very good shot of retaining the Senate.
00:43:07.000 However, if Trump does have coattails, Republicans could theoretically walk away with 53, 54 seats in the United States Senate.
00:43:14.000 So that's the current situation.
00:43:15.000 That's very bad for Joe Biden and the Democrats, obviously.
00:43:18.000 Joe Manchin retiring from the Senate in West Virginia, giving up his seat presumably to maybe Governor Jim Justice or a Republican.
00:43:23.000 That's not just a problem for Democrats in one sense, it's a big problem for them in another, which is that Joe Manchin could easily join a no-labels ticket.
00:43:29.000 So, there's been a lot of talk over the last couple of years about a no-labels third-party ticket taking votes away from Joe Biden.
00:43:36.000 And that could easily happen.
00:43:37.000 Mitt Romney has now retired from the Senate.
00:43:39.000 Joe Manchin has retired from the Senate.
00:43:41.000 And so there's a widespread push to run a Manchin-Romney or Romney-Manchin ticket as a sort of third-party alternative.
00:43:49.000 That is very risky for Joe Biden.
00:43:51.000 I mean, super risky for Joe Biden.
00:43:53.000 Because here's the thing.
00:43:54.000 He has a certain locked-in level of support.
00:43:56.000 It's not all that high.
00:43:57.000 His locked-in level of support is probably somewhere in the mid-30s.
00:44:00.000 Meanwhile, you got Donald Trump.
00:44:02.000 His locked-in level of support is probably in the low-40s to mid-40s.
00:44:06.000 There's probably 15, 20% of the vote that's up for grabs in between there.
00:44:10.000 Now, if there's no serious third party challenge, no serious third party candidate, then probably those people split in favor of Joe Biden.
00:44:16.000 That's typically what happens in an election where Donald Trump is involved.
00:44:19.000 However, If there is a plausible third-party alternative, that changes real fast.
00:44:25.000 Right now, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
00:44:28.000 is sort of the default, what-if-there-was-a-third-party guy.
00:44:32.000 And in a lot of polling, he's up in the 20s.
00:44:34.000 In one poll, he's up in the 30s, which just shows the wild dissatisfaction the American public has with the current political choices being offered them.
00:44:41.000 Being a non-functional 80-year-old and Donald Trump.
00:44:45.000 These are not choices that the broad swath of the American people are into.
00:44:49.000 The party base in the Republican Party loves Trump.
00:44:52.000 The party base in the Democratic Party doesn't love Biden, but they feel like they're stuck with him.
00:44:54.000 And so there are a lot of people who are sort of in the middle and dissatisfied with both candidates.
00:44:59.000 And so the possibility of a quote-unquote moderate ticket, a party-crossing ticket, that would be like Manchin-Romney, You're gonna see, like 20-25% of the population, they'll take a very serious look at that, and it'll come disproportionately, you would imagine, from Joe Biden's side.
00:45:13.000 Because again, Donald Trump has a higher level, he has a higher floor, he has a lower ceiling, and he has a higher floor, Donald Trump.
00:45:20.000 Joe Biden has a lower floor and a higher ceiling, just electorally speaking.
00:45:25.000 Although, because of his poor performance, his ceiling may also be really low at this point.
00:45:31.000 According to the New York Times, What Manchin plans to do remains a mystery.
00:45:35.000 His closest aides and advisors insist they don't know.
00:45:37.000 A conservative Democrat who has served as one of his party's key votes in the Senate, he has long kept his own counsel on his biggest decisions and made up his mind at the last minute.
00:45:44.000 Manchin has flirted this year with No Labels, a group that has made noise about running a centrist candidate for the White House.
00:45:49.000 No Labels officials said on Thursday Manchin's announcement had taken them by surprise, though they commended him for stepping up to lead a long overdue national conversation about solving America's biggest challenge.
00:45:58.000 Regarding our No Labels Unity Presidential Ticket, we are gathering input from our members across the country to understand the kind of leaders they would like to see in the White House, said the group in a statement.
00:46:06.000 Some allies of Manchin are skeptical he'll run for one that would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to run a credible, independent, or third-party campaign.
00:46:14.000 But he might, just because of the high levels of dissatisfaction.
00:46:20.000 For months this year, Manchin has cozied up to No Labels, according to the New York Times, which so far has secured ballot access in 12 states in an attempt to offer an alternative to Biden and Trump.
00:46:28.000 The group's president, Nancy Jacobson, has told potential donors the group intends to select a Republican to lead its ticket, a decision that would exclude Manchin if No Labels maintains that position.
00:46:37.000 One candidate who's openly teasing a No Labels run, Larry Hogan?
00:46:41.000 He's been trying to push that?
00:46:42.000 He has no level of support?
00:46:43.000 Manchin's a bit of a different story.
00:46:46.000 You can see Democrats panicking about this, by the way.
00:46:48.000 Democrats have been panicked about no labels for quite a while here, because again, they look at Joe Biden and they don't like what they see.
00:46:55.000 So, the realities that are setting in for Joe Biden are very real and very terrifying.
00:47:01.000 He's going to have to figure out pretty quickly what his strategy is.
00:47:03.000 His strategy, by the way, is going to be just attacking Donald Trump.
00:47:05.000 Whether that works or not is going to be very much dependent on the news cycle.
00:47:09.000 And if you're a Democrat running against Donald Trump, you don't want that to be dependent on the news cycle.
00:47:13.000 Joe Manchin must be scaring the pants off Democrats right now.
00:47:16.000 All right, guys, the rest of the show continues right now.
00:47:17.000 You're not going to want to miss it.
00:47:18.000 We'll be getting into the Washington Post, which has decided that only fans, you know, women posing nude for money, that that is actually a wonderful line of business.
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