The Charlie Kirk Show - Smiling In The Face Of Danger

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:02.000 On this hour, we break down how the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives are rallying behind the president and why that's actually important.

00:00:10.000 Then we welcome Rich Barris, pollster extraordinaire, who's just been added to 538, whose polls have just been added to 538, to talk about does a conviction really matter or not.

00:00:23.000 We also go through the Senate, we handicap that, and then we go to the blue wall.

00:00:27.000 We turn our attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and I make him handicap which state is the most likely to fall of the three.

00:00:37.000 It's a very, very important episode.

00:00:40.000 It's a very, very critical conversation that has wide-ranging implications on November.

00:00:45.000 You're not going to want to miss it.

00:00:46.000 Rich is the best.

00:00:47.000 Buckle up.

00:00:48.000 Here we go.

00:00:49.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:51.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.

00:00:53.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:56.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:01:00.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:01:01.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:01:02.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.

00:01:09.000 Turning point USA. 0.65

00:01:10.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:01:19.000 That's why we are here.

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00:01:48.000 They are counting on your surrender.

00:01:52.000 If you give up, they win.

00:01:55.000 But what if we look back and we realize we were just inches away from victory, and that's when we decided to give up.

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00:03:10.000 You know, I woke up this morning and my six-year-old had a tough night, so I didn't get much sleep.

00:03:17.000 So I was up actually really early, and I'm looking at the news.

00:03:19.000 I'm going, this is kind of a slow news day.

00:03:22.000 And then by about five, six in the morning, yeah, I was up early.

00:03:26.000 I realized, oh boy, this day is heating up and there was a lot to get to.

00:03:31.000 So just lay it out for you.

00:03:34.000 We've got primaries that happened yesterday.

00:03:36.000 There's big news on that front.

00:03:38.000 We also have Michael Cohen is going in for cross-examination again.

00:03:44.000 And then we've got this Harris Butker story that we played during the Cold Open on Real America's Voice.

00:03:52.000 It was, it's a crazy story, a phenomenal story on some level.

00:03:58.000 True modern day persecution.

00:04:01.000 We have, again, Michael Cohen.

00:04:03.000 We've got the House Freedom Caucus along with Matt Gates, who's not technically in the Freedom Caucus, out front of the New York trial, speaking out on behalf of the president.

00:04:13.000 I love how this is becoming a pilgrimage for the defenders of Donald Trump.

00:04:19.000 And you're seeing people rally behind him in new, fresh ways, which is really exciting.

00:04:23.000 This kind of activity should have been happening a long time ago.

00:04:26.000 And actually, let's start there.

00:04:28.000 Let's start there.

00:04:29.000 And I'm going to start right here with a turning point alumnus. 1.00

00:04:33.000 That would be Rep Ana Palina Luna out of Florida. 1.00

00:04:37.000 Let's go ahead and take 123.

00:04:39.000 This just happened.

00:04:40.000 A member of Pass Oversight, who's a Democrat, prepared Cohen for his testimony, is also retainered by the judge's daughter as a client.

00:04:49.000 Does that seem like it's not sham to you?

00:04:51.000 It is corrupt lawfare.

00:04:53.000 It's the Biden prosecutions.

00:04:55.000 And Biden, you're going to lose this election cycle.

00:04:58.000 Rep Luna bringing it.

00:05:00.000 I love that.

00:05:01.000 Let's go ahead and play CUT 124.

00:05:03.000 I've served all over the world in Africa, the Middle East, and it's South America.

00:05:12.000 And this is the type of country, those are the types of countries where they weaponize the judicial system against their political opponents.

00:05:21.000 Maduro weaponized the judicial system in Venezuela against Widow.

00:05:26.000 Every prime minister of Pakistan knows if they lose to the other side, they're going to get put in jail.

00:05:32.000 Is this what we want America to become?

00:05:36.000 This is what we're becoming.

00:05:38.000 So when we do this sort of song and dance in DC or we write the strongly written letters or we give the fire one-liners from our congressmen and congresswomen, there is a temptation for even on us on the conservative side for our eyes to glaze over.

00:05:57.000 Let me explain why what you're seeing outside of that courthouse.

00:06:01.000 And again, it started with Ken Paxton.

00:06:03.000 People need to remember Ken Paxton was the first to make the pilgrimage to New York in defense of Trump, the show trial, Kafka show trial.

00:06:13.000 And now we saw JD Vance, Byron Donalds.

00:06:16.000 Today you have the whole House Freedom Caucus.

00:06:18.000 You've got Boebert Gates, Ana Paulina Luna, many others.

00:06:23.000 Andy Biggs, I got a clip from Andy Biggs.

00:06:25.000 Thank you, Ryan.

00:06:26.000 Rick Scott.

00:06:27.000 Why this is important is because it shows that there is a seed change in the conservative movement.

00:06:34.000 Shows like Bannon, shows like the Charlie Kirk show, Jack Pesobic, which follows this, are building up a reservoir of courage and strength within the conservative movement that it has lacked for decades.

00:06:48.000 This is them saying, yeah, our guy might be sitting in a courtroom, but we got his back.

00:06:54.000 It's called backbone.

00:06:56.000 And yeah, the Republican Party needs to stop writing strongly worded letters and get to some real action, get some real results.

00:07:02.000 But guys, right now, keeping the regime on the defense, keeping the messaging out front, making sure that those clips go viral, making sure that the average American is just trying to get to work, get his kids fed, get them to school, understand what's going on right now in New York City.

00:07:24.000 This civilizational defining attack on our democracy that's coming from the left, not the right.

00:07:31.000 They project it onto the right.

00:07:32.000 They need to know that this is happening.

00:07:34.000 They need to be bombarded with it time and time and time again.

00:07:38.000 You might get distracted.

00:07:40.000 You might get discouraged.

00:07:41.000 You might get to the point where you don't want to hear this anymore.

00:07:44.000 You want to see people in handcuffs and leg irons.

00:07:47.000 I've been there.

00:07:48.000 Trust me, I've been there.

00:07:50.000 But right now, we have to deal with what is possible and what's doable.

00:07:54.000 And this kind of message, this kind of support for our president is so important.

00:08:00.000 He's the leading contender to be the next president, 45 and 47.

00:08:04.000 So in the past, the Republican Party would have run.

00:08:08.000 They would have tried to take care of their own backside.

00:08:11.000 They would have hemmed and hawed.

00:08:13.000 They would have hedged.

00:08:15.000 Not anymore.

00:08:17.000 And we have much work to do.

00:08:18.000 And Turning Point is doing a lot of work.

00:08:19.000 You know, it's funny.

00:08:20.000 Charlie and I were laughing at this meme we saw this morning.

00:08:24.000 And it was a two-by image.

00:08:26.000 There was a left and a right.

00:08:27.000 It was a meme.

00:08:28.000 And on the one side, it showed that, you know, it asked the question, what have progressives actually progressed?

00:08:35.000 It's such a regressive party.

00:08:37.000 But on the other side, it said, what if conservatives really conserved?

00:08:40.000 Both are true, sadly.

00:08:43.000 And we understand what it's like to be disappointed with our party.

00:08:46.000 We understand what it's like to be let down.

00:08:49.000 Trust me, we live this every day.

00:08:51.000 There are more days in this movement where I scratch my head and I just feel totally ticked off at how feckless our leaders are.

00:09:01.000 But we are changing that.

00:09:03.000 And when you see a whole group of them go up and say, I don't care that the city of New York is trying to, you know, throw the book at our former president, the first time in American history that that type of step has been taken.

00:09:16.000 They crossed the Rubicon, but they did it for such a crappy case.

00:09:20.000 Pardon my French. 1.00

00:09:22.000 They did it for this guy, Michael Cohen, a proven liar. 0.80

00:09:27.000 They did it for a Soros-backed DA, Alvin Bragg. 0.99

00:09:33.000 They did it for this president, who is abysmal. 0.99

00:09:38.000 His record is so terrible that you cannot put lipstick on this pig. 0.99

00:09:44.000 They threw our nation into turmoil for all the wrong reasons, backing all the wrong guys. 0.97

00:09:50.000 And so thank God these people are in New York.

00:09:53.000 Thank God that they have the courage and the backbone and the spine to fight back and to push back and to do it earnestly.

00:09:59.000 Yeah, I'm sick of the strongly worded letters too.

00:10:03.000 But everybody in America needs to see these clips.

00:10:05.000 Everybody that hasn't seen them yet, because there's millions of them.

00:10:09.000 And you better believe the mainstream news media is not going to at all do this work for us.

00:10:15.000 We have to fight over the narrative.

00:10:18.000 We have to have a patriotic reset in this country.

00:10:22.000 And we have to have people with courage, with fight.

00:10:26.000 You know, we've gone over the whole Speaker Mike Johnson thing.

00:10:31.000 Listen, disappointment after disappointment, betrayal after betrayal.

00:10:36.000 We get it.

00:10:38.000 But guys, I want you to take heart that the movement is coalescing around President Trump.

00:10:43.000 The Never Trumpers are on the ropes.

00:10:45.000 They're switching over this Israel deal.

00:10:48.000 There was an article last night from the New York Times saying Wall Street is warming to President Trump.

00:10:53.000 They don't necessarily like him, but guess what?

00:10:56.000 They can read patterns.

00:10:57.000 They can see trends.

00:10:59.000 They know that Joe Biden's been terrible for their business.

00:11:02.000 So guys, there's a lot to be grateful for and positive about.

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00:12:14.000 There are things we can say that President Trump is unjustly not allowed to say. 0.92

00:12:19.000 This is a corrupt judge. 0.96

00:12:21.000 These are corrupted witnesses. 0.99

00:12:22.000 This is a corrupt prosecution.

00:12:24.000 And so we're going to keep speaking out against this.

00:12:27.000 We're going to keep fighting against this.

00:12:28.000 Whether it's Michael Coangelo who went from the DOJ to New York City, whether it's Fonnie Willis, his boyfriend, who billed the taxpayers of Georgia for time up here in New York City, colluding with the Department of Justice, we are President Trump's voice.

00:12:40.000 We have his back.

00:12:41.000 He will ultimately be proven innocent.

00:12:44.000 And that's reps Matt Gates and Bob Good defending the president outside of the New York City courthouse.

00:12:52.000 Now, again, some people might say this is kabuki theater.

00:12:56.000 I get it.

00:12:57.000 I want real actions.

00:12:58.000 I want real results too.

00:13:00.000 I do.

00:13:00.000 But bottom line is we have to keep messaging this.

00:13:04.000 We have to keep messaging this.

00:13:05.000 They are Trump's voice right now.

00:13:07.000 We are Trump's voice.

00:13:08.000 All of you are as well.

00:13:10.000 Because ultimately, what's happening, even the naysayers will admit this is a sham show trial.

00:13:15.000 This is an utter sham.

00:13:17.000 They want you to get fixated on the fact that Michael Cohen is alleging such things.

00:13:22.000 They want to get you fixated on salacious details with Stormy Daniels.

00:13:26.000 None of that matters.

00:13:27.000 None of this would have been brought against anybody besides Donald Trump, and we know that.

00:13:31.000 So thank you to the congressmen and women who have the courage in the backbone to defend our president and the leading candidate for president in November, Donald Trump.

00:13:42.000 All right.

00:13:43.000 Other big story that came out this morning.

00:13:45.000 As I'm sleep deprived, my kids didn't let me get any sleep last night.

00:13:49.000 And I'm looking, oh my gosh, this day is heating up.

00:13:52.000 We have now found out that this, the transcripts, Robert Hur transcripts, they've been looking for the audio recordings.

00:14:00.000 Joe Biden is now officially invoking executive privilege to block the release of his interviews with special counsel Robert Hurr.

00:14:11.000 This is really, a really amazing development in this story.

00:14:17.000 And I'll explain why.

00:14:18.000 So Joe Biden was basically, he had to sit with special counsel Robert Hurr to about his mishandling of classified documents.

00:14:25.000 By the way, documents that he took out of the White House when he was vice president, he did not have authority to declassify anything.

00:14:32.000 So instantly, the case is distinct from the Jack Smith case, the documents case in southern Florida.

00:14:41.000 President Trump had the right to declassify documents.

00:14:43.000 Joe Biden didn't.

00:14:44.000 So that's one.

00:14:45.000 But number two, special counsel Robert Hurr declined to prosecute Joe Biden because he was feeble, because he was an elderly old man who couldn't remember things.

00:14:58.000 So we have the transcripts, but we don't get to hear how Joe Biden said stuff.

00:15:02.000 We don't get to hear how much he has declined, especially when he's not shot full of whatever he gets in the nether regions and those B-12s and the Adderalls or whatever they're giving him. 1.00

00:15:13.000 So when he's sort of behind the scenes, what does he sound like then?

00:15:18.000 What are they hiding?

00:15:20.000 Here we go.

00:15:21.000 Rep Van Drew asked the same question.

00:15:23.000 Let's go ahead and play Cut 122.

00:15:25.000 Well, we do have the transcripts, so why do you care so much about us getting the audio?

00:15:31.000 What's the big deal?

00:15:32.000 Gentlemen, was he competent?

00:15:34.000 Did he know what he was doing when he made this deal and used these papers to make money on the presidency?

00:15:41.000 That's what we need to know.

00:15:43.000 We need to know if we have an incompetent, incoherent president or if we have a president that is being helped through the two-tier system of justice again, just like they tried to help his son.

00:15:57.000 So, again, listen, I'd love for Joe Biden to be impeached.

00:16:01.000 I'd love for Mayokis to be impeached and actually removed. 1.00

00:16:05.000 Both of those were long shots at this Senate.

00:16:08.000 Let's just be honest.

00:16:09.000 But what this does is it makes the regime, the administration look awful.

00:16:15.000 They look weak.

00:16:17.000 Even yesterday, when Joe Biden was trying to act like a tough guy by saying, hey, bring it on, Donald.

00:16:25.000 Let's do these debates.

00:16:26.000 He took the bait that Donald Trump had laid for him.

00:16:30.000 He sprung the trap.

00:16:31.000 He has no record to run on.

00:16:33.000 Now, a lot of people are wondering if, you know, Joe Biden has some ulterior motives of the debate.

00:16:40.000 I'm of the camp.

00:16:41.000 He has no record to run on.

00:16:43.000 He looks weak again, hiding a transcript because we know, you know, we all know that the reason he doesn't want that thing getting out is because he sounds like a feeble old man who can't be held culpable for his crimes.

00:16:55.000 There is no other possible explanation, but the White House is spinning it.

00:16:59.000 They said the absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes, White House counsel Ed Siskel wrote in a letter to Republican House leaders.

00:17:13.000 Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally protected law enforcement materials from the executive branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.

00:17:23.000 Well, I'm pretty sure we've seen documents get mishandled and manipulated for partisan purposes from this White House.

00:17:33.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

00:17:35.000 Another day, another breaking news story, buried.

00:17:37.000 They'd rather talk about everything else than what's really going on.

00:17:40.000 It's not because they don't know what's happening.

00:17:42.000 The media pundits and talking heads just don't want you paying attention.

00:17:46.000 The real stories, you have to look behind the headlines for them.

00:17:49.000 You know the truth is being covered up.

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00:18:37.000 Without further ado, Rich Barris, welcome to the show.

00:18:40.000 Yes, and thanks for having me back, as always.

00:18:43.000 Man, it's always a pleasure.

00:18:44.000 Rich, I'm going to start with the good news first.

00:18:47.000 You just got added, your poll, Big Data Poll, just got added to a rather well-known polling site, 538.

00:18:56.000 I know you've had your disagreements with its former, I don't know if he was the founder or the editor or whatever, Nate Silver.

00:19:02.000 He's gone now.

00:19:03.000 538 has taken Big Data Poll.

00:19:05.000 It's a big move.

00:19:06.000 Congratulations.

00:19:07.000 And thank you.

00:19:08.000 You know, that's a long time coming, Andrew.

00:19:10.000 Honestly, it's a long time coming.

00:19:12.000 That was a dirty move Nate Silver pulled on us back in the day, years and years ago, which regardless of what, you know, if you're a leftist and you follow polls in 538, it's like a Bible to you, right?

00:19:25.000 But, you know, they do have some influence.

00:19:28.000 So doing what he did, I don't know, Andrew.

00:19:31.000 I mean, out of jealousy, I don't know what it was, you know.

00:19:35.000 So I'm glad to see they did the right thing.

00:19:37.000 They joined decision desk who's always had our backs.

00:19:40.000 They have always had our backs.

00:19:42.000 And yeah, I mean, if you want your model and your average to be more accurate, then the best thing you could do is add the more accurate polls.

00:19:48.000 And we have been there.

00:19:49.000 So it's a victory.

00:19:51.000 Yeah, congratulations.

00:19:52.000 Well deserved.

00:19:53.000 Well deserved, my friend.

00:19:54.000 Okay, so I want to get into that.

00:19:56.000 You know, we're talking about Michael Cohen, New York.

00:19:59.000 I'm going to get to that and then I'm going to get to the primaries that were some results yesterday that we need to get into.

00:20:05.000 But okay, let's just play this out.

00:20:07.000 It's a total sham show trial.

00:20:09.000 We know that, but it's New York.

00:20:12.000 He gets convicted.

00:20:13.000 Trump is convicted of whatever the crime is that they're alleging happened that didn't happen or whatever.

00:20:21.000 What does that do?

00:20:22.000 There's polling that says from ABC Ipsos 80% will continue to support him, but 16% said they will reconsider and 4% say no longer support him.

00:20:35.000 Is this what you're seeing?

00:20:36.000 Is it accurate, Rich?

00:20:38.000 It isn't, Andrew.

00:20:39.000 And I'm going to tell you why.

00:20:41.000 I'm going to go ahead and agree with Obama's pollster, who told CIMAFOR, I believe is the name of that site, that if you believe that if you believe those numbers, then you're either believing Republicans who are lying to pollsters or you're lying to yourself, because we just live in an era where that's not going to happen.

00:21:01.000 Look, and by the way, there's been other reputable polling from the Wall Street Journal, which is jointly conducted by Tony Fabrizio and a leftist that basically say that Trump has a popular vote lead, something we never thought he would have.

00:21:15.000 And if he was convicted, then we were looking at more like a Biden plus one, you know, ballpark there.

00:21:20.000 That's not enough for Biden to win.

00:21:22.000 Look, if Joe Biden was convicted of a crime and ran for president, 20% of Republicans, 15%, I mean, if Democrats, 15% of Democrats, Andrew, would not vote for the Republican candidate.

00:21:34.000 We live in that kind of a country.

00:21:35.000 And it doesn't, those questions are incredibly misleading.

00:21:39.000 And Ipsos, by the way, just to take a trip down memory lane, they did this during the impeachment as well.

00:21:45.000 They're also the poll that Morning Consult touted in 2016 after the Billy Bush tape came out that said 22% of Republicans in Florida are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because of the Billy Bush tape.

00:21:57.000 At the end of the day, that did not happen.

00:21:59.000 So again, and by the way, in the case of the impeachment, that did not happen, right?

00:22:05.000 What happened?

00:22:06.000 Donald Trump became the sitting president to get the most votes ever, ever in history.

00:22:12.000 So yeah, I just, I don't buy them.

00:22:15.000 Those are questions.

00:22:16.000 People know the quote, correct response when you ask them.

00:22:20.000 They're very bias injecting and they don't encapsulate the whole story.

00:22:24.000 I think you're right on that, Rich.

00:22:25.000 I think you're right on that.

00:22:27.000 So let's, and by the way, this is, I started the show with this.

00:22:31.000 This is why, you know, mainstream Republicans getting out, calling a spade a spade.

00:22:36.000 The sham show trial in New York is very important.

00:22:40.000 The voters that might be a little bit squeamish, that might be like, oh, well, he's, you know, now the press is just going to say convicted felon, Donald Trump, convicted felon, Donald Trump's convicted.

00:22:50.000 That's all they want.

00:22:51.000 They're willing to throw the society into chaos just to get those two words attached to his name.

00:22:56.000 So that's why all of these people making the pilgrimage to New York is so important.

00:23:01.000 So, okay, I said my piece.

00:23:03.000 I want to go to Washington Post.

00:23:05.000 Let's reflect on the primaries from last night.

00:23:07.000 Republicans' chances at winning the Senate has just skyrocketed.

00:23:12.000 Okay, what happened?

00:23:13.000 Now, so, I mean, I'm going to just be honest.

00:23:16.000 I'm not a huge Jim Justice fan, but Trump got behind him, endorsed him in West Virginia.

00:23:22.000 Manchin's retiring.

00:23:23.000 It's probably going to be a pickup.

00:23:25.000 Am I right?

00:23:26.000 That's, I mean, yeah.

00:23:27.000 And the truth is, I mean, I don't know why that was a surprise to them.

00:23:32.000 The Senate, Republicans would, Andrew, they can screw up an opportunity like nobody else, the Republican Party, but they would really, really, really have to bomb this one to not win control of the Senate.

00:23:46.000 The only question was ever, the only question ever was by how many seats.

00:23:51.000 And we expected Jim Justice to win this.

00:23:53.000 So I don't, you know, they act like they just fell off the turnip truck or something.

00:23:59.000 You know what I mean?

00:24:00.000 This was uh, but I understand where they're coming from.

00:24:04.000 It's just that I think that West Virginia is a goner for Democrats at this point.

00:24:09.000 Even the Joe Manchins wouldn't survive it, you know, they just can't.

00:24:14.000 Right.

00:24:14.000 So let's turn our attention.

00:24:16.000 So I think we okay, that gets us to 50-50, right, Rich.

00:24:19.000 So let's turn our attention to let's turn our attention to Maryland.

00:24:23.000 All right.

00:24:23.000 This is where we've got Larry Hogan now is going to be going up against Angela Osso Brooks, the Democrat, who beat Trone, right?

00:24:31.000 Who spent $60 million of his own money?

00:24:34.000 So go ahead and throw this polling up 138, guys.

00:24:38.000 This image.

00:24:38.000 So this is concerning to me when we're getting into it.

00:24:41.000 So, you know, if you go back, even as recently as April 7th through the 10th, Opinion Works had Hogan 54, 36, Goucher College, 44, 40, 50, 36, and so on.

00:24:54.000 But more recently, Hogan is polling behind the Democrat opponent, Angela Osobrooks.

00:25:00.000 What are you seeing in this race? 0.95

00:25:02.000 Does you know our audience obviously is not going to be big Larry Hogan fans?

00:25:05.000 He's kind of that never Trumper Republican.

00:25:07.000 But let's be honest, Rich, this is a blue Maryland.

00:25:12.000 He's probably our best hope of picking up an R out of Maryland.

00:25:16.000 What's his chances as we come down the stretch in the general?

00:25:20.000 There are a lot more races that need more attention and more money than Maryland. 0.97

00:25:25.000 I'm sorry, but this is, I've been warning people for months, this is fool's gold.

00:25:29.000 Even when we saw these polls that were insane, I think Spencer over at Emerson is dead right.

00:25:34.000 I think that's probably the status of the race.

00:25:36.000 You were looking at a popular governor with name ID in some early polls before people were really locked in on the Democratic nominee, just benefiting from that name ID and being a popular governor.

00:25:47.000 However, governor races, as I tried to tell Team DeSantis and all of the influencers throughout the primary season, popular governors do not translate into national office strengths.

00:26:01.000 So if a governor decides, like Phil Bradenson, for instance, thought they, everyone thought that he could beat Marshall Blackburn because he was a popular Democratic governor in a southern state.

00:26:12.000 That did not happen. 0.98

00:26:13.000 But you have these fools, and I'm sorry, I didn't mean to be brutal here, but I'm going to be brutal. 1.00

00:26:18.000 You have these fools in the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the McConnell team. 1.00

00:26:23.000 They're stupid. 1.00

00:26:24.000 They're not smart people. 1.00

00:26:25.000 They waste millions and millions and millions of dollars, tens of millions, hundreds of millions every cycle trying to understand the map and what is worthwhile to spend money on and what isn't. 0.99

00:26:38.000 And Maryland is again, I just, I'm telling you, I think it's fool's gold. 0.98

00:26:42.000 I do.

00:26:42.000 I think that's why Larry Hogan's going to be beat by the PVI.

00:26:46.000 Yes, which is a partisan voting index, by the way.

00:26:49.000 Of course.

00:26:49.000 So you're basically saying, Rich, governor is local.

00:26:54.000 People can actually, the voters are smart enough to detach that from a national race.

00:26:58.000 But when you have a presidential race, especially when you're voting on federal offices like U.S. Senate, they tie it to the national race, the presidential race.

00:27:07.000 That makes sense.

00:27:08.000 All right.

00:27:08.000 So let's go to Arizona, Cary Lake, Gallego.

00:27:11.000 There you go.

00:27:13.000 I'm just saying, like, it's 40 years of research here.

00:27:16.000 I mean, when Tip O'Neill said all politics is local, Andrew, that's what he was talking about.

00:27:21.000 Good, you know, there's been Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont.

00:27:24.000 They could never win a Senate race.

00:27:26.000 Well, yeah.

00:27:26.000 I mean, listen, if I was a moderate, I could see myself wanting to sort of, you know, create a hedge to the national trend locally and vice versa.

00:27:36.000 I mean, it's not my way, but I can at least get behind the logic.

00:27:40.000 Carrie Gallego, Carrie Lake, Gallego in Arizona.

00:27:45.000 This is one where I do think, again, the partisan voting index will start to tighten.

00:27:50.000 I do know of a swing voter in Arizona that could vote and did, by the way, voted for Donald Trump, but then voted for Mark Kelly.

00:28:01.000 Mick Sally was losing these voters by about three points when Donald Trump was stomping them by about 30.

00:28:08.000 Carrie Lake will have to work on dealing with those voters. 0.99

00:28:12.000 I'm not sure there's, they know her. 1.00

00:28:16.000 She just has to be herself, but she needs to give them more attention.

00:28:20.000 And I think that as we get closer to the election, there is a ticket split phenomenon that's happening here right now.

00:28:26.000 But Trump is going to be there with her, Andrew.

00:28:29.000 He will help her.

00:28:33.000 You might have heard Mike Lindell and MyPillow no longer have the support of their box stores or shopping channels the way they used to.

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00:29:30.000 Okay, we got Montana.

00:29:33.000 Got to pick up Montana.

00:29:34.000 Ohio, Bernie Moreno.

00:29:36.000 Obviously, we talked about Arizona.

00:29:38.000 What is the most likely of the flip opportunities to actually flip in the Senate?

00:29:44.000 So Bernie Moreno is going to beat Sherrod Brown.

00:29:47.000 I mean, I would put him as more than a slight favorite at this point after looking at what happened in the primary.

00:29:55.000 Yeah, I think that's a big deal.

00:29:56.000 I mean, those were just, that was the weakest performance Sherrod Brown has ever put on.

00:30:01.000 And I think he would have been beaten in 2018 if Josh Man.

00:30:05.000 Well, I don't think.

00:30:06.000 I know we were pulling the race.

00:30:07.000 Josh Mandel was ahead between seven and nine points in 2018.

00:30:12.000 Unfortunately, he got out of that race.

00:30:15.000 God, could you imagine the votes that Sherrod Brown cast that would never have gotten cast if he did not.

00:30:21.000 Instead, they put the vanilla Jim Renachi in there.

00:30:24.000 And he's not that kind of Trumpy populist candidate like Bernie is.

00:30:29.000 He's a new MAGA era candidate, doing a great job reaching out to not only the white working class there, like the Ohio Valley, but non-white in Toledo.

00:30:38.000 Man, he crushed it in the primary, and Sherrod Brown is in deep trouble.

00:30:43.000 I'm so glad to hear that.

00:30:44.000 And we got behind Bernie early.

00:30:46.000 But by the way, they're coming after him.

00:30:47.000 I mean, the stories, they're attacking his Colombian heritage and his up from the bootstraps kind of story.

00:30:54.000 They're coming at they're trying to say he was on some adult friend finder or whatever, like, you know, basically a cheating website.

00:31:00.000 That got completely debunked.

00:31:02.000 So anyways, hey, so I want to switch our attention, Rich, to the blue wall.

00:31:07.000 Okay.

00:31:07.000 So, so, you know, we're still, we're still got our eyes on Nebraska second.

00:31:11.000 So don't anybody, don't anybody go anywhere on that.

00:31:15.000 We're still working on that.

00:31:16.000 So just, you know, put a bookmark in it.

00:31:19.000 But Rich, blue wall plus Nebraska second is their strategy.

00:31:24.000 It's their best strategy right now.

00:31:25.000 Yes.

00:31:26.000 Wisconsin, Michigan, PA.

00:31:28.000 Now, I was not long on PA.

00:31:30.000 I thought PA was like a disaster zone.

00:31:33.000 I'm hearing the Trump, Trump camp is feeling very good about the internals they're getting back from Pennsylvania.

00:31:39.000 Meanwhile, Wisconsin's the dog. 0.99

00:31:42.000 What the heck? 0.85

00:31:43.000 You say Wisconsin is the hardest of the blue wall states to poll.

00:31:48.000 What's your if one of them's going to fall, which one's going to be?

00:31:51.000 In the last two election cycles, Wisconsin polled more Democratic, but voted more Republican.

00:31:57.000 And that's a Trumpy phenomenon.

00:32:00.000 In 2022, Ron Johnson was polling stronger than he performed because Republicans didn't advocate out the vote operation.

00:32:06.000 So Mandela Barnes put the, you know, they put their backs into it and they got very close.

00:32:12.000 But at the end of the day, go back and look at the polling from 2020, Wisconsin.

00:32:17.000 There were some Biden plus 17s, Biden plus 11s.

00:32:21.000 And meanwhile, even with the New York Times polling that just came out, Pennsylvania was the closest, but it turned out not to be.

00:32:28.000 It turned out to be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, then Michigan.

00:32:31.000 The way that the realignment is happening right now, Andrew, Michigan in our polling is polling stronger for Trump in many respects, but Wisconsin is tougher because unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, it's much more rural.

00:32:45.000 There's a lot different kind of constituency there.

00:32:49.000 There's no huge black population in an urban ghetto.

00:32:53.000 Of course, they have Milwaukee, but it's much more sparsely populated.

00:32:56.000 And then you have the Trumpy phenomena, which is what we call lumberjack country in the northwestern part of the state, where him and Johnson, too, by the way.

00:33:04.000 You get in the mid-40s in those counties, low to mid-40s, right?

00:33:08.000 Ashland, Bayfield, you know, up in the northwest.

00:33:11.000 And Republicans normally get clobbered.

00:33:13.000 30%, Mitt Romney got everyone, you know, Hagedorn got 30%.

00:33:18.000 So it's very tough to pull, and you need to keep your eye on geography, education, and ethnicity.

00:33:25.000 So I wouldn't be surprised.

00:33:27.000 But Pennsylvania, I agree with the Trump campaign.

00:33:29.000 I mean, he's already in the low 40s, mid-40s in Allegheny County.

00:33:33.000 And that's because of his strength among young non-white, particularly men.

00:33:38.000 Yeah.

00:33:39.000 I mean, it's real, Andrew.

00:33:40.000 It's real.

00:33:41.000 There's no doubt.

00:33:42.000 Wow.

00:33:42.000 So you think right now you're going to just handicapping it.

00:33:46.000 You're saying PA is the most likely of the blue wall to fall.

00:33:50.000 You know, history tells us that Wisconsin is, but that's actually not.

00:33:55.000 What I'm saying is right now, because of the non-white vote shift, it actually looks like Michigan is polling the strongest for him. 0.93

00:34:02.000 But if past this prologue, that's how these three states work.

00:34:07.000 And I would just point this out.

00:34:09.000 With the exception of Dekakis in 88, Wisconsin bucked the trend and voted for Dekakis over Herbert Walker Bush.

00:34:15.000 These states have voted for each other, voted with each other in each of the eight last presidential elections.

00:34:22.000 And then if you skip 88, it's actually 10 because of the two elections with Reagan.

00:34:28.000 So, I mean, normally some of them will be closer, Andrew, but one goes.

00:34:32.000 They all go typically.

00:34:34.000 Rich, I was supposed to mention your polling project.

00:34:37.000 So support the polling prize.

00:34:39.000 Can they find that at locals?

00:34:40.000 They can.

00:34:40.000 And also just go to Big Data Poll.

00:34:42.000 Check it out.

00:34:43.000 Okay.

00:34:43.000 Support the public polling project.

00:34:45.000 All the best, brother.

00:34:46.000 See you next time.

00:34:49.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

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The Charlie Kirk Show - May 16, 2024

Smiling In The Face Of Danger

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