00:00:00.000Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:02.000On this hour, we break down how the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives are rallying behind the president and why that's actually important.
00:00:10.000Then we welcome Rich Barris, pollster extraordinaire, who's just been added to 538, whose polls have just been added to 538, to talk about does a conviction really matter or not.
00:00:23.000We also go through the Senate, we handicap that, and then we go to the blue wall.
00:00:27.000We turn our attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and I make him handicap which state is the most likely to fall of the three.
00:01:10.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:01:55.000But what if we look back and we realize we were just inches away from victory, and that's when we decided to give up.
00:02:01.000Join us and thousands of American patriots for the summer convention that all are invited to.
00:02:10.000You're going to hear how we're going to win in 2024.
00:02:13.000With the biggest speakers in the movement, featuring President Donald J. Trump.
00:02:18.000We're going to fight and we're going to win.
00:02:20.000Charlie Kirk, Dave Ramaswamy, Governor Christy Nolan, Dr. Ben Carson, Steve Bannon, Candace Bowens, Laura Trump, Senator Rick Scott, Congressman Matt Gates, Benny Johnson, Jack Posobiec, and more.
00:02:42.000June 14th through 16th, 2024 is our final battle in Detroit, Michigan.
00:02:48.000The great silent majority is rising like never before.
00:04:03.000We've got the House Freedom Caucus along with Matt Gates, who's not technically in the Freedom Caucus, out front of the New York trial, speaking out on behalf of the president.
00:04:13.000I love how this is becoming a pilgrimage for the defenders of Donald Trump.
00:04:19.000And you're seeing people rally behind him in new, fresh ways, which is really exciting.
00:04:23.000This kind of activity should have been happening a long time ago.
00:05:03.000I've served all over the world in Africa, the Middle East, and it's South America.
00:05:12.000And this is the type of country, those are the types of countries where they weaponize the judicial system against their political opponents.
00:05:21.000Maduro weaponized the judicial system in Venezuela against Widow.
00:05:26.000Every prime minister of Pakistan knows if they lose to the other side, they're going to get put in jail.
00:05:32.000Is this what we want America to become?
00:05:38.000So when we do this sort of song and dance in DC or we write the strongly written letters or we give the fire one-liners from our congressmen and congresswomen, there is a temptation for even on us on the conservative side for our eyes to glaze over.
00:05:57.000Let me explain why what you're seeing outside of that courthouse.
00:06:01.000And again, it started with Ken Paxton.
00:06:03.000People need to remember Ken Paxton was the first to make the pilgrimage to New York in defense of Trump, the show trial, Kafka show trial.
00:06:13.000And now we saw JD Vance, Byron Donalds.
00:06:16.000Today you have the whole House Freedom Caucus.
00:06:18.000You've got Boebert Gates, Ana Paulina Luna, many others.
00:06:23.000Andy Biggs, I got a clip from Andy Biggs.
00:06:27.000Why this is important is because it shows that there is a seed change in the conservative movement.
00:06:34.000Shows like Bannon, shows like the Charlie Kirk show, Jack Pesobic, which follows this, are building up a reservoir of courage and strength within the conservative movement that it has lacked for decades.
00:06:48.000This is them saying, yeah, our guy might be sitting in a courtroom, but we got his back.
00:06:56.000And yeah, the Republican Party needs to stop writing strongly worded letters and get to some real action, get some real results.
00:07:02.000But guys, right now, keeping the regime on the defense, keeping the messaging out front, making sure that those clips go viral, making sure that the average American is just trying to get to work, get his kids fed, get them to school, understand what's going on right now in New York City.
00:07:24.000This civilizational defining attack on our democracy that's coming from the left, not the right.
00:09:03.000And when you see a whole group of them go up and say, I don't care that the city of New York is trying to, you know, throw the book at our former president, the first time in American history that that type of step has been taken.
00:09:16.000They crossed the Rubicon, but they did it for such a crappy case.
00:11:15.000When I say only, trust me, they are the only one.
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00:12:24.000And so we're going to keep speaking out against this.
00:12:27.000We're going to keep fighting against this.
00:12:28.000Whether it's Michael Coangelo who went from the DOJ to New York City, whether it's Fonnie Willis, his boyfriend, who billed the taxpayers of Georgia for time up here in New York City, colluding with the Department of Justice, we are President Trump's voice.
00:13:27.000None of this would have been brought against anybody besides Donald Trump, and we know that.
00:13:31.000So thank you to the congressmen and women who have the courage in the backbone to defend our president and the leading candidate for president in November, Donald Trump.
00:14:45.000But number two, special counsel Robert Hurr declined to prosecute Joe Biden because he was feeble, because he was an elderly old man who couldn't remember things.
00:14:58.000So we have the transcripts, but we don't get to hear how Joe Biden said stuff.
00:15:02.000We don't get to hear how much he has declined, especially when he's not shot full of whatever he gets in the nether regions and those B-12s and the Adderalls or whatever they're giving him.
00:15:13.000So when he's sort of behind the scenes, what does he sound like then?
00:15:43.000We need to know if we have an incompetent, incoherent president or if we have a president that is being helped through the two-tier system of justice again, just like they tried to help his son.
00:15:57.000So, again, listen, I'd love for Joe Biden to be impeached.
00:16:01.000I'd love for Mayokis to be impeached and actually removed.
00:16:05.000Both of those were long shots at this Senate.
00:16:43.000He looks weak again, hiding a transcript because we know, you know, we all know that the reason he doesn't want that thing getting out is because he sounds like a feeble old man who can't be held culpable for his crimes.
00:16:55.000There is no other possible explanation, but the White House is spinning it.
00:16:59.000They said the absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes, White House counsel Ed Siskel wrote in a letter to Republican House leaders.
00:17:13.000Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally protected law enforcement materials from the executive branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.
00:17:23.000Well, I'm pretty sure we've seen documents get mishandled and manipulated for partisan purposes from this White House.
00:19:12.000That was a dirty move Nate Silver pulled on us back in the day, years and years ago, which regardless of what, you know, if you're a leftist and you follow polls in 538, it's like a Bible to you, right?
00:19:25.000But, you know, they do have some influence.
00:19:28.000So doing what he did, I don't know, Andrew.
00:19:31.000I mean, out of jealousy, I don't know what it was, you know.
00:19:35.000So I'm glad to see they did the right thing.
00:19:37.000They joined decision desk who's always had our backs.
00:19:42.000And yeah, I mean, if you want your model and your average to be more accurate, then the best thing you could do is add the more accurate polls.
00:20:22.000There's polling that says from ABC Ipsos 80% will continue to support him, but 16% said they will reconsider and 4% say no longer support him.
00:20:41.000I'm going to go ahead and agree with Obama's pollster, who told CIMAFOR, I believe is the name of that site, that if you believe that if you believe those numbers, then you're either believing Republicans who are lying to pollsters or you're lying to yourself, because we just live in an era where that's not going to happen.
00:21:01.000Look, and by the way, there's been other reputable polling from the Wall Street Journal, which is jointly conducted by Tony Fabrizio and a leftist that basically say that Trump has a popular vote lead, something we never thought he would have.
00:21:15.000And if he was convicted, then we were looking at more like a Biden plus one, you know, ballpark there.
00:21:22.000Look, if Joe Biden was convicted of a crime and ran for president, 20% of Republicans, 15%, I mean, if Democrats, 15% of Democrats, Andrew, would not vote for the Republican candidate.
00:21:35.000And it doesn't, those questions are incredibly misleading.
00:21:39.000And Ipsos, by the way, just to take a trip down memory lane, they did this during the impeachment as well.
00:21:45.000They're also the poll that Morning Consult touted in 2016 after the Billy Bush tape came out that said 22% of Republicans in Florida are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because of the Billy Bush tape.
00:21:57.000At the end of the day, that did not happen.
00:21:59.000So again, and by the way, in the case of the impeachment, that did not happen, right?
00:22:27.000So let's, and by the way, this is, I started the show with this.
00:22:31.000This is why, you know, mainstream Republicans getting out, calling a spade a spade.
00:22:36.000The sham show trial in New York is very important.
00:22:40.000The voters that might be a little bit squeamish, that might be like, oh, well, he's, you know, now the press is just going to say convicted felon, Donald Trump, convicted felon, Donald Trump's convicted.
00:23:27.000And the truth is, I mean, I don't know why that was a surprise to them.
00:23:32.000The Senate, Republicans would, Andrew, they can screw up an opportunity like nobody else, the Republican Party, but they would really, really, really have to bomb this one to not win control of the Senate.
00:23:46.000The only question was ever, the only question ever was by how many seats.
00:23:51.000And we expected Jim Justice to win this.
00:23:53.000So I don't, you know, they act like they just fell off the turnip truck or something.
00:24:38.000So this is concerning to me when we're getting into it.
00:24:41.000So, you know, if you go back, even as recently as April 7th through the 10th, Opinion Works had Hogan 54, 36, Goucher College, 44, 40, 50, 36, and so on.
00:24:54.000But more recently, Hogan is polling behind the Democrat opponent, Angela Osobrooks.
00:25:02.000Does you know our audience obviously is not going to be big Larry Hogan fans?
00:25:05.000He's kind of that never Trumper Republican.
00:25:07.000But let's be honest, Rich, this is a blue Maryland.
00:25:12.000He's probably our best hope of picking up an R out of Maryland.
00:25:16.000What's his chances as we come down the stretch in the general?
00:25:20.000There are a lot more races that need more attention and more money than Maryland.
00:25:25.000I'm sorry, but this is, I've been warning people for months, this is fool's gold.
00:25:29.000Even when we saw these polls that were insane, I think Spencer over at Emerson is dead right.
00:25:34.000I think that's probably the status of the race.
00:25:36.000You were looking at a popular governor with name ID in some early polls before people were really locked in on the Democratic nominee, just benefiting from that name ID and being a popular governor.
00:25:47.000However, governor races, as I tried to tell Team DeSantis and all of the influencers throughout the primary season, popular governors do not translate into national office strengths.
00:26:01.000So if a governor decides, like Phil Bradenson, for instance, thought they, everyone thought that he could beat Marshall Blackburn because he was a popular Democratic governor in a southern state.
00:26:25.000They waste millions and millions and millions of dollars, tens of millions, hundreds of millions every cycle trying to understand the map and what is worthwhile to spend money on and what isn't.
00:26:38.000And Maryland is again, I just, I'm telling you, I think it's fool's gold.
00:26:49.000So you're basically saying, Rich, governor is local.
00:26:54.000People can actually, the voters are smart enough to detach that from a national race.
00:26:58.000But when you have a presidential race, especially when you're voting on federal offices like U.S. Senate, they tie it to the national race, the presidential race.
00:27:26.000I mean, listen, if I was a moderate, I could see myself wanting to sort of, you know, create a hedge to the national trend locally and vice versa.
00:27:36.000I mean, it's not my way, but I can at least get behind the logic.
00:27:40.000Carrie Gallego, Carrie Lake, Gallego in Arizona.
00:27:45.000This is one where I do think, again, the partisan voting index will start to tighten.
00:27:50.000I do know of a swing voter in Arizona that could vote and did, by the way, voted for Donald Trump, but then voted for Mark Kelly.
00:28:01.000Mick Sally was losing these voters by about three points when Donald Trump was stomping them by about 30.
00:28:08.000Carrie Lake will have to work on dealing with those voters.
00:30:07.000Josh Mandel was ahead between seven and nine points in 2018.
00:30:12.000Unfortunately, he got out of that race.
00:30:15.000God, could you imagine the votes that Sherrod Brown cast that would never have gotten cast if he did not.
00:30:21.000Instead, they put the vanilla Jim Renachi in there.
00:30:24.000And he's not that kind of Trumpy populist candidate like Bernie is.
00:30:29.000He's a new MAGA era candidate, doing a great job reaching out to not only the white working class there, like the Ohio Valley, but non-white in Toledo.
00:30:38.000Man, he crushed it in the primary, and Sherrod Brown is in deep trouble.
00:32:00.000In 2022, Ron Johnson was polling stronger than he performed because Republicans didn't advocate out the vote operation.
00:32:06.000So Mandela Barnes put the, you know, they put their backs into it and they got very close.
00:32:12.000But at the end of the day, go back and look at the polling from 2020, Wisconsin.
00:32:17.000There were some Biden plus 17s, Biden plus 11s.
00:32:21.000And meanwhile, even with the New York Times polling that just came out, Pennsylvania was the closest, but it turned out not to be.
00:32:28.000It turned out to be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, then Michigan.
00:32:31.000The way that the realignment is happening right now, Andrew, Michigan in our polling is polling stronger for Trump in many respects, but Wisconsin is tougher because unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, it's much more rural.
00:32:45.000There's a lot different kind of constituency there.
00:32:49.000There's no huge black population in an urban ghetto.
00:32:53.000Of course, they have Milwaukee, but it's much more sparsely populated.
00:32:56.000And then you have the Trumpy phenomena, which is what we call lumberjack country in the northwestern part of the state, where him and Johnson, too, by the way.
00:33:04.000You get in the mid-40s in those counties, low to mid-40s, right?
00:33:08.000Ashland, Bayfield, you know, up in the northwest.
00:33:11.000And Republicans normally get clobbered.
00:33:13.00030%, Mitt Romney got everyone, you know, Hagedorn got 30%.
00:33:18.000So it's very tough to pull, and you need to keep your eye on geography, education, and ethnicity.
00:34:49.000Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:51.000If what we do here on the show means anything to you, if you get something out of it, please consider joining our members.charlikirk.com portal.