The Culture War - Tim Pool - July 07, 2025


California WILL SECEDE, Sparking CIVIL WAR Says USCB Professor


Episode Stats


Length

33 minutes

Words per minute

172.8378

Word count

5,824

Sentence count

556

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

sentences flagged

Hate speech

12

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Could America be headed for civil war? Will California secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war in the United States? Is it possible that we are headed for a civil war, and who s to blame?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:01:50.300 And we have this from the Post-Millennial.
00:01:54.740 So let's start.
00:01:56.420 From the Post-Millennial, political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years,
00:02:03.120 sparking a new civil war.
00:02:06.060 Political economist Benjamin Cohen warned the risk of political polarization in America
00:02:10.000 is reaching a breaking point, and it's substantially greater than zero.
00:02:14.380 And not just that, my friends.
00:02:16.320 We have more and more stories.
00:02:18.200 Could America break apart?
00:02:20.300 Democrat issues civil war warning.
00:02:23.060 Trump calls for civil war.
00:02:25.300 What's the next one?
00:02:26.240 Mother Jones.
00:02:27.160 Will Trump's disinformation lead to a civil war?
00:02:29.540 And on and on and on.
00:02:32.720 Heavens me.
00:02:33.980 Why are so many people making the argument that we're headed for a civil war?
00:02:38.140 Perhaps it could be mass deportations, expansion of ICE,
00:02:42.260 and professors repeatedly giving this warning.
00:02:45.880 Former CIA analyst Barbara F. 0.98
00:02:47.820 Walter saying the U.S.
00:02:49.500 is on track for a civil war.
00:02:50.980 Journalist Stephen Marsh writing several books about it.
00:02:54.400 Actually has a book called The Last Election that he wrote with Andrew Yang.
00:02:58.060 And one of the characters is me.
00:03:00.440 I'm sure he doesn't treat me fairly or nicely in his book and accuses me of whatever.
00:03:05.520 But regardless, we've had the guy on several times.
00:03:07.500 We've interviewed him.
00:03:08.260 And he certainly believes we are on track for a civil war, though he blames the right.
00:03:11.820 My friends, with all the talk of immigration,
00:03:14.000 this is one of the predictors that we had in the past couple of years as to what could be the catalyst.
00:03:18.880 Abortion was one of them, but I don't know that abortion makes the cut.
00:03:21.600 Perhaps, perhaps.
00:03:22.860 Right now it looks like immigration.
00:03:24.840 The story of immigration right now is tracking similarly in some ways to that of slavery in the first civil war.
00:03:31.780 Now, obviously, there's a big difference.
00:03:33.440 People brought here against their will and forced to work is very different from people breaking in.
00:03:38.340 But there's an argument over the rights of humans that creates some similarities.
00:03:42.540 Again, I know they're overwhelmingly different.
00:03:44.440 But there is a tiny overlap in some areas, as, you know, look, everything overlaps in some way.
00:03:49.480 What we have now is illegal immigrants who are inflating the vote count for states like California, 0.99
00:03:55.200 Electoral College and Congressional vote count,
00:03:57.880 changing the shape of this country in ways the American people do not want.
00:04:02.740 Sooner or later, these blue states must be brought to heel.
00:04:06.340 And if they resist civil war, we've already seen the makings of.
00:04:11.740 Now, maybe they don't.
00:04:12.420 We don't know for sure, but it's possible.
00:04:15.400 Now, before we read this story, my friends, we've got a big announcement.
00:04:17.660 Make sure you go to dccomedyloft.com and pick up your Culture War live podcast tickets.
00:04:25.320 July 26th, August 2nd, August 9th, the upcoming dates.
00:04:30.160 July 26th, we've got some big names lined up.
00:04:32.780 They're not confirmed.
00:04:34.320 So I can't confirm that just yet, though we really need to get on it because it's coming up.
00:04:37.780 August 2nd, Michael Malice, Angry Cops, having that cop debate.
00:04:44.220 It's going to be amazing and it's probably going to be the funniest show we've ever done
00:04:46.960 because both these guys are fantastic, extremely funny.
00:04:50.020 But, you know, Michael Malice, very critical of police and Angry Cops, quite literally a cop.
00:04:55.000 That'll be at the DC Comedy Loft.
00:04:56.660 So go to dccomedyloft.com, check the events and pick up your tickets to the Culture War live now.
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00:05:17.020 and we reserve seats just for you guys.
00:05:19.000 Plus, after parties are in the works, brought to you by the Discord members,
00:05:23.440 and we will be sponsoring and helping get all that set up.
00:05:26.220 But let's jump to the story from the Post Millennial.
00:05:28.400 Political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war.
00:05:37.220 Interesting.
00:05:37.880 What's this all about?
00:05:39.460 A professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has issued a warning
00:05:42.620 that California could attempt to secede from the United States within the next decade,
00:05:47.120 potentially sparking a broader civil war across the country.
00:05:50.560 Political economist Benjamin Cohen, who authored 20 books,
00:05:54.120 said in a recent analysis that the risk of polarization in America
00:05:56.980 reaching a breaking point is substantially greater than zero.
00:06:00.620 Now, I want to give a shout out to his name.
00:06:01.700 It's Ben Cohen, the same as the Ben and Jerry's guy.
00:06:04.640 It's probably a common name, I guess.
00:06:06.820 Cohen outlined a scenario in which California declares independence by 2035
00:06:09.980 due to escalating tensions between the state and the federal government,
00:06:13.740 which he said could provoke a dramatic response from Washington.
00:06:16.840 In a mock news bulletin of this hypothetical scenario,
00:06:19.680 Cohen imagined a future where President J.D. Vance has threatened a military takeover
00:06:24.240 of state government in Sacramento,
00:06:27.160 backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states.
00:06:30.900 Armed conflict looks increasingly possible.
00:06:34.920 Well, we've got it for you, my friends.
00:06:37.780 This is from news.ucsb.edu.
00:06:41.780 Could America break apart?
00:06:44.280 Expert explores the possibility.
00:06:46.060 In a new book, political economist Benjamin Cohen considers the forces driving nations,
00:06:50.620 including the U.S., towards fragmentation.
00:06:52.400 But full stop, my friends.
00:06:54.800 What about this?
00:06:55.980 From theweek.com.
00:06:58.100 This is a report from 2020.
00:07:01.380 U.S. election 2020.
00:07:03.220 Washington insiders preparing for counting chaos and states seceding.
00:07:08.960 Experts conduct war gaming exercise amid fears of major political upheaval
00:07:13.960 following November vote.
00:07:16.060 Let me just grab this for you.
00:07:18.300 The shadow campaign, time.com.
00:07:21.820 I want to show you these two stories.
00:07:24.340 Many of you are familiar with them, but for those that are not,
00:07:27.280 because it's been several years, I want to make sure you see this.
00:07:31.000 Time magazine wrote,
00:07:33.120 the secret history of the shadow campaign that saved the 2020 election.
00:07:38.800 Saved it?
00:07:39.440 Well, it's supposed to be a democracy, right?
00:07:43.600 In which case, you can never save an election.
00:07:46.620 Just politically, one side wins or doesn't win.
00:07:49.940 But the argument is that between the two sides, we're all America, right?
00:07:55.440 No.
00:07:56.560 They saved it.
00:07:58.200 And what do they describe it as?
00:07:59.840 A conspiracy.
00:08:00.520 They say, quote,
00:08:02.920 There was a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes,
00:08:06.520 one that both curtailed the protests and coordinated the resistance from CEOs.
00:08:11.640 Both surprises were the result of an informal alliance between left-wing activists and business
00:08:15.300 titans.
00:08:16.260 The pact was formalized in a terse, little-noticed joint statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce,
00:08:21.120 that is, the government, and AFL-CIO published on Election Day.
00:08:27.200 Both sides would come to see it as a sort of implicit bargain,
00:08:30.640 inspired by the summer's massive, sometimes destructive racial justice protests,
00:08:34.320 in which the forces of labor came together with the forces of capital
00:08:37.060 to keep the peace and oppose Trump's assault on democracy.
00:08:42.360 That is how Time magazine described it.
00:08:44.980 In this period, several Democrats and neocons got together to have a war game.
00:08:52.680 What would happen if Trump refused to lose?
00:08:57.020 They claimed he did.
00:08:58.480 Well, let me just skip all the hubbub and pull it up.
00:09:02.400 In the ensuing chaos, California, Oregon, and Washington state said they would secede from the U.S.
00:09:07.420 if Mr. Trump was sworn in.
00:09:09.580 The Democratic-controlled House of Reps asserted that Mr. Biden was the true president.
00:09:13.300 The Republican-controlled Senate said it was Mr. Trump.
00:09:17.060 Now, that didn't happen.
00:09:19.060 But there were some elements.
00:09:21.320 People claimed the election was rigged.
00:09:22.740 There were deep challenges.
00:09:24.040 And the Capitol Police hunted down many innocent Trump supporters and falsely charged him with crimes.
00:09:30.500 Now, I know the Democrats are going to say,
00:09:32.680 on January 6th, the violent rioters.
00:09:34.620 Okay, I'm going to say it again, as I always do.
00:09:37.280 The violent rioters of Jan 6th deserved prison.
00:09:41.460 Trump pardoned them.
00:09:42.160 Yeah, I think three years is enough for a riot.
00:09:44.980 I mean, come on.
00:09:46.360 Some people got 20 years. 0.94
00:09:47.300 That's ridiculous. 0.53
00:09:48.220 I think three years is enough. 0.94
00:09:49.540 These Antifa guys that are smashing windows and starting fires,
00:09:52.340 I think three years is enough as well.
00:09:55.100 Granted, you know, anyone who actually had a plot to overthrow the government, which they didn't,
00:10:00.440 you know, deserves prison time.
00:10:02.600 But they went overboard with it.
00:10:04.600 And the result was extreme violence.
00:10:07.860 Now, this guy's making the argument, California may try to secede.
00:10:12.940 Here's what they write.
00:10:15.000 Benjamin Cohen begins his new book, quote,
00:10:16.760 After years of festering discontent with the direction of politics in Washington,
00:10:22.020 California today formally declared its independence as a sovereign nation.
00:10:25.760 President Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento,
00:10:29.660 backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states.
00:10:32.260 Armed conflict looks increasingly possible.
00:10:34.540 A provocative scenario.
00:10:36.040 All the more plausible coming at a time when California's governor is furious at the president
00:10:39.720 for ordering troops into the state to keep order at immigration protests.
00:10:43.500 Um, riots, by the way.
00:10:46.200 But for all our partisan acrimony and political polarization,
00:10:48.860 America isn't really headed towards a second civil war, right?
00:10:52.460 I wish that I could be sanguine about it,
00:10:54.680 said distinguished professor Emeritus Cohen,
00:10:56.880 who spent 30 years as the Louis G. Lancaster Professor of International Political Economy
00:11:02.100 in the political science department at Santa Barbara.
00:11:05.740 I'm not.
00:11:06.860 It seems to me we cannot ignore the risks of the current fissures
00:11:09.700 and fragmentation that break down a sense of community.
00:11:13.560 Given that today's political divide is more between urban and rural
00:11:17.040 as opposed to north versus south and east versus west,
00:11:19.420 it's difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there was a civil war.
00:11:23.540 But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.
00:11:28.880 Cohen's views on the subject are extremely well informed.
00:11:32.100 His new book, Dream States,
00:11:34.000 A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order,
00:11:36.540 is a comprehensive guide to secession movements currently active all around the world.
00:11:40.060 He provides an assessment of the risk of these efforts leading to violence
00:11:43.800 and offers a possible path of diffusing tensions.
00:11:46.380 I consider secession a grievously underappreciated phenomenon.
00:11:50.500 My motivation to write this book was to call people's attention to the fact.
00:11:53.620 We tend to simplify geography by looking exclusively at the existing lines in a map
00:11:58.560 that separate one sovereign state from another.
00:12:01.640 But the reality is there are many people within those states
00:12:04.180 that are very unhappy with the arrangement.
00:12:07.240 They prefer to draw the lines in a different way.
00:12:09.720 In some cases, they'd prepared to fight to redraw those lines.
00:12:14.140 The war in Ukraine provides a vivid example.
00:12:17.000 The conflict over whether it should be an independent nation
00:12:19.700 or a facet of greater Russia goes back hundreds of years.
00:12:22.820 It's not going to end with the current conflict.
00:12:24.960 It's similar to the relationship between Quebec and Canada.
00:12:27.320 Quebec is a distinct community with a different language,
00:12:29.580 which has periodically challenged its incorporation to the larger state.
00:12:32.880 The same is true of Ukraine.
00:12:34.600 The majority of Ukrainians believe they have a right to a state of their own.
00:12:38.020 Putin and his people take quite a different view. 0.99
00:12:39.980 And I love these deranged, evil psychopaths. 0.96
00:12:43.820 The situation in Ukraine really irks me because these people so desperately want you to think 0.99
00:12:49.940 it's literally just Putin.
00:12:52.520 Ukraine fought for independence.
00:12:54.680 I'm sorry, Crimea fought for independence in the early 90s.
00:12:58.380 And the greater Ukraine crushed their fight for sovereignty.
00:13:02.560 It is not as simple to say it's Putin versus the Ukrainians.
00:13:06.060 There are many conflicts budding.
00:13:08.920 The eastern regions, the Donbass region,
00:13:10.800 these are more Russian speaking people.
00:13:13.120 They're close to Russia and their arguments over where the border should be drawn.
00:13:16.820 And it is a conflict for which I think the U.S. has no reason to be involved with.
00:13:20.360 But notice how these people write it.
00:13:22.900 These American imperialists.
00:13:26.320 The difference between these two situations, of course,
00:13:27.940 is that Canada has found a way to keep Quebec in the fold,
00:13:30.900 primarily through allowing the province to have considerable sovereignty under its own affairs.
00:13:34.860 He goes on to say it's it's simply not happening in in the most trouble,
00:13:39.440 troubled spots in most potential trouble spots.
00:13:42.540 The most dangerous, the dangerous of these is Taiwan. 1.00
00:13:44.880 We get it.
00:13:45.260 We get it.
00:13:45.600 We get it.
00:13:46.740 But as Cohen notes, much of the human decision making is driven by forces other than logic.
00:13:50.500 In the case of secessionist movements, he documents in dream states,
00:13:53.880 the primary driver is usually a sense of identity,
00:13:55.780 the impulse to rally behind the group you feel you belong to
00:13:58.680 and the insistence on its right to act independently.
00:14:02.080 Identity can be a very powerful motivator, he said.
00:14:04.480 That's why I worry about the risk of civil war.
00:14:06.560 When it comes to something as strong as sense of community identity,
00:14:09.900 rationalism falls by the wayside.
00:14:12.340 Agreed.
00:14:13.620 Here we go from March.
00:14:15.520 Democrat issues civil war warning.
00:14:18.520 Maxine Waters said that President Trump is working towards a civil war.
00:14:22.640 Quote, I'm worried that Trump is on the edge of creating a civil war.
00:14:27.100 He alluded to it more than once.
00:14:29.200 He alluded to the fact that if he did not get reelected,
00:14:32.640 that there could be a civil war.
00:14:34.500 And there still may be from Los Angeles Press dot org,
00:14:41.040 which I'm not familiar with, but they do have this and it is prominent on Google.
00:14:45.260 Quote, the second civil war Trump wants.
00:14:48.960 Trump is not celebrating the U.S. military.
00:14:51.060 He's recruiting it for a personal regime.
00:14:53.940 His speech at Fort Bragg was an open call for a second civil war.
00:14:58.680 Indeed, it wasn't.
00:14:59.680 But let me break it down for you, how they view things and how we and I view things.
00:15:05.940 There's an America that I remember.
00:15:07.920 I'd wake up and this is the early 90s, 91, maybe 92.
00:15:13.360 Oh, no, this would have to have been 93 or 94.
00:15:15.480 How old is I?
00:15:15.980 I would have been.
00:15:16.620 Let's see.
00:15:17.180 I was four in 1990.
00:15:19.020 So actually, probably 95.
00:15:20.980 Got my year's way wrong.
00:15:23.460 I was probably seven or eight.
00:15:25.380 So it's around that time.
00:15:26.520 You get it.
00:15:27.520 And I walked outside of my house, walked only a few blocks to the local park where
00:15:31.900 there were four baseball games happening at once.
00:15:35.280 Kind of weird.
00:15:36.360 How do you play?
00:15:37.640 I mean, the fields were far apart from each other,
00:15:39.200 but the ball could roll into the other part of the outfield for the other field.
00:15:41.860 But, you know, that's what happened.
00:15:43.840 And I sold Kool-Aid.
00:15:45.540 Got a little pitcher you could pump.
00:15:47.160 My dad gave me some Kool-Aid materials, said, you're going to owe me the, I'm going to loan
00:15:53.100 this to you.
00:15:54.000 Go sell Kool-Aid, but you got to pay me back for the Kool-Aid.
00:15:57.040 So me and my brother went to the park where they're playing baseball.
00:15:59.520 And we asked if anybody wanted to buy Kool-Aid from us.
00:16:02.020 That was the America I grew up in.
00:16:04.320 The great American pastime.
00:16:06.040 Well, as I mentioned in a previous segment, I went home today and those baseball fields are
00:16:08.700 overgrown with weeds.
00:16:09.460 Nobody plays anymore.
00:16:10.220 No one's there.
00:16:11.280 It's not just an issue.
00:16:13.360 Of immigration, per se.
00:16:16.080 It's that our culture is dying.
00:16:18.180 People are going online.
00:16:19.260 They're on phones.
00:16:19.940 They're swiping.
00:16:20.460 And parents aren't maintaining this.
00:16:22.160 It's just as much my fault as it is yours or literally anybody else's. 0.99
00:16:26.160 To be fair, some are more responsible than others.
00:16:28.720 Some people had families bring their kids to ballgames and try and maintain that American
00:16:33.020 tradition.
00:16:33.980 And I'm not saying baseball is the only thing football is fine, too.
00:16:36.600 We have sports and we have pastimes.
00:16:38.560 There were things that Americans did for a while.
00:16:40.800 But times do change, too.
00:16:41.840 That's fine.
00:16:42.260 But now here's the country that I see.
00:16:45.260 The people that made America and who gifted that inheritance to their children.
00:16:50.940 This includes immigrants, those who came here legally.
00:16:54.940 We all worked to build a country with an agreement and a handshake.
00:16:58.840 Now that agreement is being destroyed.
00:17:01.280 This article right here says that Donald Trump is declaring a civil war.
00:17:03.980 Why?
00:17:05.140 Well, I look at New York with Zoran Mamdani, who Trump threatened to arrest.
00:17:10.280 And I think he should.
00:17:11.460 Should Zoran Mamdani obstruct ICE?
00:17:13.920 That would be seditious conspiracy, sedition, in my view.
00:17:17.940 Zoran Mamdani said he will protect the families, the people from Trump's immigration enforcement.
00:17:24.560 This is I am legend, like the graphic novel.
00:17:30.340 What's happened is Americans are being replaced. 0.82
00:17:33.640 And that's of all races.
00:17:34.460 That is the hardworking Hispanic American who came here legally, whose family came here legally generations ago.
00:17:41.020 The Native American, the black American, those who are all the contributor to the building of this nation.
00:17:46.640 There are now people coming here en masse to the tune of 20 million who care not for our traditions, our laws, our baseball fields.
00:17:54.260 They just want to make money and live a better life.
00:17:56.940 I can certainly respect that, but they are not carriers of the American tradition, much like all of the people here. 0.87
00:18:03.720 And I would also make the argument.
00:18:05.480 The descendants of slaves have an entitlement to this nation for which they contributed.
00:18:10.000 That is being taken from them as well.
00:18:11.700 Now, in Chicago, with the migration crisis, it was the black community that said we were being, quote, we are being replaced.
00:18:17.900 Now, it's shocking for all of the far left that want to claim it's white supremacy.
00:18:21.820 Now, here's what I see in this country.
00:18:24.860 There are those of us that believe in the American promise, the American tradition and what our ancestors built.
00:18:30.160 Now you have Zoran Mamdani, a migrant legal, who is advocating for illegal immigrants to be protected.
00:18:36.540 He says he will do what he can to stop ICE, our law enforcement.
00:18:41.700 The way the left is framing this, they, along with their illegal immigrant friends, they're saying it's our country now and we will not let you stop us.
00:18:51.820 Then there are those that believe in the American tradition saying you have broken into our country and have usurped our traditions and you cannot stay.
00:18:59.240 I believe this is a fight for the soul of America and Donald Trump must deport these people.
00:19:06.080 He stands firmly on American tradition.
00:19:09.060 These people who write this article saying that Trump is calling for a civil war, it's not a civil war.
00:19:13.640 There is an invasive force that has come here without resistance.
00:19:16.860 And Trump is saying, no, you can't be here.
00:19:20.260 You have to go.
00:19:20.820 And these are the two factions.
00:19:24.100 Of course, they feel that they're right.
00:19:26.180 They come here and they say it's our country now, but they are not legal.
00:19:30.640 They came here illegally. 0.99
00:19:31.900 They violated our laws.
00:19:33.540 The argument is.
00:19:35.520 The land belongs to only those with the power and will to control it.
00:19:41.400 Well, Trump certainly has that will.
00:19:43.740 They write this from last month, mind you.
00:19:46.940 Earlier this week, Donald Trump called for a second civil war at a U.S. military base.
00:19:50.120 He didn't, but you see what they're saying.
00:19:51.960 The scenario can be resisted and prevented if we have the courage to listen, interpret and act.
00:19:56.200 And this Saturday, we will have chosen to act.
00:19:59.300 The speech was given at the base now known as Fort Bragg.
00:20:01.580 The fort was named for a Confederate general.
00:20:03.800 It was renamed Fort Liberty.
00:20:05.980 Under this administration, it was renamed Fort Bragg.
00:20:08.940 You see, there are those that would maintain the traditions, the good and the bad.
00:20:13.580 A Confederate general indeed, Bragg.
00:20:15.600 But the reason we name things after Confederate generals is not because we celebrate the Confederacy.
00:20:22.000 No, we crushed it.
00:20:23.820 It's to celebrate the reunification of the Union and the recognition that we are all now Americans,
00:20:30.440 even those who were defeated.
00:20:32.860 The statues of the Confederacy, to some, honor the legacy of the Confederacy.
00:20:37.240 To others, are a reminder of the civil war and the lives lost.
00:20:41.000 Understand this, when I bring this up.
00:20:45.220 I'm bringing, I'm pulling this up.
00:20:48.320 The lies.
00:20:49.820 The lies they claim.
00:20:53.840 Here we go.
00:20:55.880 The lies they claim.
00:20:57.840 From the AP.
00:20:59.480 Protester involved in pulling down abolitionist statue in Wisconsin gets six months in jail.
00:21:06.040 Story from 23.
00:21:07.140 In 2020, a Union Civil War abolitionist hero named Hans Christian Hegg.
00:21:14.820 His statue was toppled and beheaded by these protesters. 0.93
00:21:19.820 Now, hold on there a gosh darn minute. 0.92
00:21:22.240 I thought this guy was writing some anger about Fort Bragg. 1.00
00:21:27.260 They are liars. 1.00
00:21:28.720 They are invaders. 1.00
00:21:30.040 And they seek to destroy our country. 0.80
00:21:31.540 I am proud of this nation and Abraham Lincoln and the defeat of the Union.
00:21:38.680 I also recognize Sherman was a monster.
00:21:41.780 His march to the sea, killing civilians and raising farmland, destroying railroads.
00:21:46.500 The war was brutal.
00:21:47.760 It was awful.
00:21:48.600 But the Confederacy was wrong. 0.84
00:21:51.440 Now, some argue they were right. 0.89
00:21:53.360 But might argue otherwise.
00:21:55.800 I also recognize the Union did horrible things.
00:21:58.140 Suspension of habeas corpus, the arrest of the Maryland legislature, not all of them, most of them.
00:22:03.460 There were terrible things in that war.
00:22:05.340 And that is our history and tradition.
00:22:08.480 The good, the bad and the ugly.
00:22:10.900 We say away with the bad and forever with the good.
00:22:14.080 And that means we we always seek to be better.
00:22:18.180 Now, this man says they renamed it Fort Bragg, the Confederacy.
00:22:22.060 That's a lie to manipulate liberals during the George Floyd riots.
00:22:27.260 They beheaded and destroyed Hans Christian Hegg.
00:22:30.520 They tore down and destroyed a statue of Frederick Douglass.
00:22:34.000 They took down George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Christopher Columbus.
00:22:37.780 It is not about the Confederacy or the left and right.
00:22:41.540 It is about the history of this nation versus those that would usurp it and destroy it. 0.98
00:22:46.780 So when Trump says our names, our history, it will be restored.
00:22:52.740 They say he's calling for civil war.
00:22:55.380 No, the reality is in 2020, they were tearing down statues and changing names because that is how you destroy a people and you destroy a nation.
00:23:04.420 And they did it with little resistance.
00:23:06.540 But the resistance is now here to save and preserve this union.
00:23:10.860 And that is what Trump is doing rather imperfectly, but it's certainly what he aims to do.
00:23:17.880 It is what it is.
00:23:20.040 This is why they say he's calling for a civil war.
00:23:23.440 Will Trump's disinformation presidency lead to a civil war?
00:23:26.460 They seek to burn this country to the ground, to reshape what it means to be American. 0.62
00:23:32.460 There is an American tradition.
00:23:35.160 They don't want it.
00:23:37.180 Here's this.
00:23:37.740 Is America headed for another civil war from STL News, July 6th?
00:23:44.760 They say a profound sense of unease pervades conversations across the country from bustling urban centers to quiet rural communities.
00:23:53.200 Headlines frequently decry unprecedented levels of political division, civil unrest and seemingly irreconcilable differences.
00:23:59.880 A stark question hangs in the air.
00:24:01.660 Are we headed for a civil war?
00:24:03.360 They say, you know, blah, blah, blah.
00:24:07.440 Today's polarization goes beyond typical partisan squabbles.
00:24:10.680 Ideological sorting.
00:24:12.540 Effective polarization.
00:24:14.200 Echo chambers.
00:24:15.540 Gerrymandering.
00:24:16.880 They're going to say, so with these deep divisions is a conventional civil war on the horizon.
00:24:23.200 Most political scientists and historians specializing in civil conflicts around the world believe a traditional 1860s-style civil war is highly improbable for a developed nation.
00:24:31.940 However, dismissing the possibility of any conflict would be naive.
00:24:36.900 Dr. Barbara F. Walter, a prominent political scientist who has extensively studied civil wars globally, has notably warned the nation exhibits several key indicators found in countries on the path to political violence.
00:24:48.620 Increase in political violence.
00:24:50.440 Yep.
00:24:51.400 Sustained instability and anarchy.
00:24:53.120 They say, rather than a neat division into warring factions, a more likely scenario might involve a widespread civil unrest, localized conflicts, and a breakdown of social order in specific areas, where grievances fester and are expressed through violence.
00:25:09.520 Erosion of democratic norms.
00:25:10.760 This encompasses a decline in trust in institutions, a disregard for election results, and willingness by political actors to undermine democratic processes for partisan gain.
00:25:21.000 This anocracy, a state combining democratic and autocratic features, is identified by Walter as a particularly vulnerable space.
00:25:28.080 For example, when Democrats arrested Trump's lawyers, I'm going to say it again, because this is one of the most shockingly egregious things we've ever seen.
00:25:37.020 Trump's lawyers were arrested for simply providing legal services, accused of being part of a conspiracy.
00:25:46.460 Okay.
00:25:46.980 It's right in your face.
00:25:50.540 And I don't know if that means war.
00:25:52.980 They say for citizens across the nation, this means engaging in civil discourse, seeking out diverse news sources, a way to navigate turbulent waters.
00:26:03.640 While a full-blown civil war may not be knocking on America's door, the current trajectory is undeniably concerning.
00:26:07.720 The path forward requires a renewed commitment to democratic principles, a willingness to bridge divides, and a recognition that the nation's strength ultimately rests on a diverse populace's ability to coexist and work towards a common future.
00:26:21.800 The lessons of history are clear.
00:26:23.940 Ignoring the warning signs comes at a perilous cost. 0.99
00:26:26.300 I think it's wonderfully naive to think that you're going to bring leftists who want open borders and who are too stupid to actually know what's happening in this country to the table to negotiate honestly. 0.99
00:26:42.940 I just don't see that as a reality. 0.98
00:26:46.020 Here's a mirasafety.com, what would a second American civil war look like?
00:26:50.560 I've cited this before, but it's actually quite a long read.
00:26:54.900 But they mention, interestingly, what a second civil war would look like.
00:27:01.180 Let's just jump right to it.
00:27:03.460 Section three.
00:27:05.860 Hotspots in conflict regions.
00:27:08.280 If a second civil war would break out, certain parts of the country would see more conflict than others.
00:27:13.280 They mention the Mason-Dixon line might not be as clear cut this time, but the ideological contracts are just as strong.
00:27:20.460 Cities tend to be more liberal while rural areas tend to be conservative.
00:27:22.920 This could lead to urban centers clashing with the surrounding rural areas.
00:27:26.700 The violence in the streets becoming common occurrences.
00:27:29.060 A civil war could see urban governments trying to maintain control while rural militias mobilize against them.
00:27:34.280 We saw this in the American Civil War.
00:27:36.960 I'm sorry.
00:27:37.380 I'm sorry.
00:27:37.660 The American Revolutionary War.
00:27:40.380 Lexington conquered.
00:27:41.560 The regulars quickly occupied Boston.
00:27:44.140 They owned it.
00:27:45.060 But the rural areas are where the fighting started.
00:27:47.100 When people say it's unprecedented, they're wrong.
00:27:50.380 It's most civil wars have this divide.
00:27:53.460 There are some cities that will quickly be conquered by conservative right-leaning forces.
00:27:57.840 These are going to be in red states.
00:27:59.700 Blue states with strong federal, with strong, I'm sorry, state governments will quickly start to suppress the rural areas.
00:28:06.440 So it will be somewhat state by state.
00:28:10.640 Some states will be forced to join and others will be forced to join others.
00:28:14.080 Famously, Texas and the American Civil War.
00:28:17.020 Largely, the reason their leaders wrote they joined the Confederacy was proximity.
00:28:21.960 Texas had barely been a state in the Union.
00:28:24.380 They were part of Mexico.
00:28:25.620 There was the whole independence thing.
00:28:27.020 They joined the U.S.
00:28:27.960 And when the Civil War started, they said, what are we going to do?
00:28:29.880 Stay in the Union, but be isolated and cut off from all the other states?
00:28:32.400 That made no sense.
00:28:33.060 So Texas said, it just makes sense.
00:28:35.440 We're part of the Confederacy.
00:28:37.000 Surprisingly, that's where slavery finally technically ended in the United States.
00:28:41.540 Although, to be serious, the 13th Amendment actually ratified slavery.
00:28:47.160 My friends, I don't know what will happen.
00:28:51.160 We have this interesting article, which is recent, from just this week, charting multidimensional ideological polarization.
00:28:58.360 And they have this image, which is fascinating.
00:29:00.720 This image is not Democrat-Republican.
00:29:04.280 This image does use red and blue, but actually does not identify opinion.
00:29:10.840 You can see here, A.
00:29:13.200 Figure 1A is Democrat and Republican.
00:29:16.600 What it's showing is the clusters of ideological homogeneity between the groups.
00:29:22.380 As you can see, opinions, while not defined for Republicans, are clustered.
00:29:26.920 There's a small center, very small, and then a large blue.
00:29:32.460 And you can see where the dark, dark blue clusters.
00:29:35.400 This makes perfect sense.
00:29:37.440 Democrats actually are less unified.
00:29:40.560 You've got the far left and the more moderate Democrats disagreeing.
00:29:43.900 As we can see in this chart, Democrats and Republicans are hyper-polarized.
00:29:47.940 But Democrats are actually at odds with themselves.
00:29:50.120 On the figure B, you can see black and white.
00:29:54.900 Even in the same section, notice it's the same shape.
00:29:58.260 The area that is largely Democrat holds different political views to the black.
00:30:03.960 White liberals hold different views to black liberals.
00:30:06.900 And just, this is not based on, like, if you overlaid all of these different colors,
00:30:12.760 you'd be impossible to see things.
00:30:14.280 But the point is, we can see where Democrats are and how they differ in their political views.
00:30:19.980 You can see here, the Republican area is dark, dark, dark red.
00:30:24.980 And then over here, liberals, they don't necessarily completely agree,
00:30:29.080 but they actually do agree more as white people than they do with black people.
00:30:35.760 What I would make the guess on is that the bottom cluster that is blue here for black, 0.68
00:30:41.840 these are likely the woke left, but we don't actually know.
00:30:45.040 The point is, you can see low-income, high-income.
00:30:49.180 You can see that low-income people tend to be Democrats aligning with the left,
00:30:53.020 as well as black voters.
00:30:54.540 The point is, hyper-polarization.
00:30:58.380 It's here, my friends.
00:30:59.960 Whether or not we get a civil war in 10 years, I honestly have no idea.
00:31:03.200 But the ingredients are in the pot.
00:31:05.760 The tinder is below, and the spark could come at any moment.
00:31:09.780 We don't know.
00:31:11.020 We never do.
00:31:12.200 There have been periods of civil strife that have not ended in civil war.
00:31:14.720 In fact, there have been many of them.
00:31:15.880 So maybe it's a lot of nothing.
00:31:18.100 Or maybe it'll be crazy.
00:31:19.780 So my friends, smash that like button. 0.94
00:31:21.560 Share the show with everyone.
00:31:22.720 You know, there certainly is a lot more to talk about this.
00:31:25.100 And we'll have the conversation later tonight at TimCast IRL.
00:31:27.340 So make sure y'all share the show with everybody.
00:31:30.340 Go back.
00:31:31.100 Go, go.
00:31:31.760 Not go back.
00:31:32.500 Yeah, go back to TimCast IRL.
00:31:34.260 Tonight at 8 p.m.
00:31:35.560 Make sure to come hang out for TimCast IRL, where we will be discussing all of these issues,
00:31:39.760 as well as some of the latest developments, of course, as we always do.
00:31:42.620 Let me try and grab some of your rumble rants while we're here.
00:31:45.720 Firehazard says the no Epstein client list.
00:31:49.200 Good spin.
00:31:50.360 The media and FBI are corrupt.
00:31:52.020 Tell the public we found nothing.
00:31:53.300 Behind the scenes, Cash and Dan are making a case against FBI agents that helped cover the list.
00:31:57.100 I don't know that I believe it.
00:31:58.600 Sure.
00:32:00.300 Rain says, does everyone losing their mind over the Epstein files realize they are blindly
00:32:03.540 believing an Axios article about a leaked unsigned memo?
00:32:06.820 That's a very, very good point.
00:32:08.980 Very good point.
00:32:11.300 This leaked memo, some have argued, is fake.
00:32:13.680 So we'll see.
00:32:14.260 Pinochet says, why are we pretending that if it were a Civil War scenario, Democrats like
00:32:19.420 those disarmed in Massachusetts would not all be blanketly blamed and collectively punished?
00:32:25.600 You know, my friends, I don't know for sure what exactly happens.
00:32:29.440 We can try and predict all we want.
00:32:31.880 But what I will say is, our good friend Russell Brand is gearing up to go live, so we will begin
00:32:36.700 that raid.
00:32:38.040 Thank you all so much for no guests today.
00:32:40.260 We're coming back from the holidays, and a lot of people don't want to work.
00:32:44.160 It's Monday after the 4th of July.
00:32:45.480 Maybe they're traveling.
00:32:46.860 I can respect it.
00:32:48.300 I hope you had a great America's birthday.
00:32:50.100 I certainly did.
00:32:51.360 I'm going to send you on your way to hang out with our friend Russell Brand.
00:32:54.220 So smash that like button. 0.97
00:32:55.620 Share the show with everyone you know.
00:32:57.280 Thank you all so much.
00:32:58.120 Make sure you go to DCComedyLoft.com.
00:33:01.500 Come to our events, man.
00:33:02.680 It's going to be nuts.
00:33:04.160 They got something like 200 seats.
00:33:05.420 These are big venues.
00:33:06.080 We're going to sell it for sure.
00:33:08.020 Because it's in a big metro area, I think we've already, like, we're close to it.
00:33:12.920 So pick up your tickets now before it's too late.
00:33:15.460 I know we're looking at like a month and a half out for some of these shows, but the
00:33:18.500 26th is fast approaching.
00:33:20.820 And you're going to be there.
00:33:22.040 And you know what we do?
00:33:22.960 We bring you up onto the stage to join the debate.
00:33:26.840 And we're going to have members of the public just coming up.
00:33:29.320 And who knows what they're going to say.
00:33:30.580 That's why these are pre-tapings.
00:33:32.440 Because some people might say something real crazy.
00:33:34.980 But hey, it'll be fun.
00:33:36.280 Thanks for hanging out, everybody.
00:33:38.140 Come hang out tonight at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL.
00:33:41.000 And we'll see you all then.