California WILL SECEDE, Sparking CIVIL WAR Says USCB Professor
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Summary
Could America be headed for civil war? Will California secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war in the United States? Is it possible that we are headed for a civil war, and who s to blame?
Transcript
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From the Post-Millennial, political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years,
00:02:06.060
Political economist Benjamin Cohen warned the risk of political polarization in America
00:02:10.000
is reaching a breaking point, and it's substantially greater than zero.
00:02:27.160
Will Trump's disinformation lead to a civil war?
00:02:33.980
Why are so many people making the argument that we're headed for a civil war?
00:02:38.140
Perhaps it could be mass deportations, expansion of ICE,
00:02:50.980
Journalist Stephen Marsh writing several books about it.
00:02:54.400
Actually has a book called The Last Election that he wrote with Andrew Yang.
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I'm sure he doesn't treat me fairly or nicely in his book and accuses me of whatever.
00:03:05.520
But regardless, we've had the guy on several times.
00:03:08.260
And he certainly believes we are on track for a civil war, though he blames the right.
00:03:14.000
this is one of the predictors that we had in the past couple of years as to what could be the catalyst.
00:03:18.880
Abortion was one of them, but I don't know that abortion makes the cut.
00:03:24.840
The story of immigration right now is tracking similarly in some ways to that of slavery in the first civil war.
00:03:33.440
People brought here against their will and forced to work is very different from people breaking in.
00:03:38.340
But there's an argument over the rights of humans that creates some similarities.
00:03:42.540
Again, I know they're overwhelmingly different.
00:03:44.440
But there is a tiny overlap in some areas, as, you know, look, everything overlaps in some way.
00:03:49.480
What we have now is illegal immigrants who are inflating the vote count for states like California,
00:03:55.200
Electoral College and Congressional vote count,
00:03:57.880
changing the shape of this country in ways the American people do not want.
00:04:02.740
Sooner or later, these blue states must be brought to heel.
00:04:06.340
And if they resist civil war, we've already seen the makings of.
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Now, before we read this story, my friends, we've got a big announcement.
00:04:17.660
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00:04:25.320
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00:04:34.320
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00:04:37.780
August 2nd, Michael Malice, Angry Cops, having that cop debate.
00:04:44.220
It's going to be amazing and it's probably going to be the funniest show we've ever done
00:04:46.960
because both these guys are fantastic, extremely funny.
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00:04:56.660
So go to dccomedyloft.com, check the events and pick up your tickets to the Culture War live now.
00:05:04.780
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00:05:12.460
So go to timcast.com, join our Discord server, hang out with like-minded people,
00:05:19.000
Plus, after parties are in the works, brought to you by the Discord members,
00:05:23.440
and we will be sponsoring and helping get all that set up.
00:05:26.220
But let's jump to the story from the Post Millennial.
00:05:28.400
Political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war.
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A professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has issued a warning
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that California could attempt to secede from the United States within the next decade,
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potentially sparking a broader civil war across the country.
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Political economist Benjamin Cohen, who authored 20 books,
00:05:54.120
said in a recent analysis that the risk of polarization in America
00:05:56.980
reaching a breaking point is substantially greater than zero.
00:06:01.700
It's Ben Cohen, the same as the Ben and Jerry's guy.
00:06:06.820
Cohen outlined a scenario in which California declares independence by 2035
00:06:09.980
due to escalating tensions between the state and the federal government,
00:06:13.740
which he said could provoke a dramatic response from Washington.
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In a mock news bulletin of this hypothetical scenario,
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Cohen imagined a future where President J.D. Vance has threatened a military takeover
00:06:27.160
backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states.
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In a new book, political economist Benjamin Cohen considers the forces driving nations,
00:07:03.220
Washington insiders preparing for counting chaos and states seceding.
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Experts conduct war gaming exercise amid fears of major political upheaval
00:07:24.340
Many of you are familiar with them, but for those that are not,
00:07:27.280
because it's been several years, I want to make sure you see this.
00:07:33.120
the secret history of the shadow campaign that saved the 2020 election.
00:07:46.620
Just politically, one side wins or doesn't win.
00:07:49.940
But the argument is that between the two sides, we're all America, right?
00:08:02.920
There was a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes,
00:08:06.520
one that both curtailed the protests and coordinated the resistance from CEOs.
00:08:11.640
Both surprises were the result of an informal alliance between left-wing activists and business
00:08:16.260
The pact was formalized in a terse, little-noticed joint statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce,
00:08:21.120
that is, the government, and AFL-CIO published on Election Day.
00:08:27.200
Both sides would come to see it as a sort of implicit bargain,
00:08:30.640
inspired by the summer's massive, sometimes destructive racial justice protests,
00:08:34.320
in which the forces of labor came together with the forces of capital
00:08:37.060
to keep the peace and oppose Trump's assault on democracy.
00:08:44.980
In this period, several Democrats and neocons got together to have a war game.
00:08:58.480
Well, let me just skip all the hubbub and pull it up.
00:09:02.400
In the ensuing chaos, California, Oregon, and Washington state said they would secede from the U.S.
00:09:09.580
The Democratic-controlled House of Reps asserted that Mr. Biden was the true president.
00:09:13.300
The Republican-controlled Senate said it was Mr. Trump.
00:09:24.040
And the Capitol Police hunted down many innocent Trump supporters and falsely charged him with crimes.
00:09:34.620
Okay, I'm going to say it again, as I always do.
00:09:37.280
The violent rioters of Jan 6th deserved prison.
00:09:42.160
Yeah, I think three years is enough for a riot.
00:09:49.540
These Antifa guys that are smashing windows and starting fires,
00:09:55.100
Granted, you know, anyone who actually had a plot to overthrow the government, which they didn't,
00:10:07.860
Now, this guy's making the argument, California may try to secede.
00:10:16.760
After years of festering discontent with the direction of politics in Washington,
00:10:22.020
California today formally declared its independence as a sovereign nation.
00:10:25.760
President Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento,
00:10:29.660
backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states.
00:10:36.040
All the more plausible coming at a time when California's governor is furious at the president
00:10:39.720
for ordering troops into the state to keep order at immigration protests.
00:10:46.200
But for all our partisan acrimony and political polarization,
00:10:48.860
America isn't really headed towards a second civil war, right?
00:10:56.880
who spent 30 years as the Louis G. Lancaster Professor of International Political Economy
00:11:02.100
in the political science department at Santa Barbara.
00:11:06.860
It seems to me we cannot ignore the risks of the current fissures
00:11:09.700
and fragmentation that break down a sense of community.
00:11:13.560
Given that today's political divide is more between urban and rural
00:11:17.040
as opposed to north versus south and east versus west,
00:11:19.420
it's difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there was a civil war.
00:11:23.540
But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.
00:11:28.880
Cohen's views on the subject are extremely well informed.
00:11:36.540
is a comprehensive guide to secession movements currently active all around the world.
00:11:40.060
He provides an assessment of the risk of these efforts leading to violence
00:11:43.800
and offers a possible path of diffusing tensions.
00:11:46.380
I consider secession a grievously underappreciated phenomenon.
00:11:50.500
My motivation to write this book was to call people's attention to the fact.
00:11:53.620
We tend to simplify geography by looking exclusively at the existing lines in a map
00:11:58.560
that separate one sovereign state from another.
00:12:01.640
But the reality is there are many people within those states
00:12:07.240
They prefer to draw the lines in a different way.
00:12:09.720
In some cases, they'd prepared to fight to redraw those lines.
00:12:17.000
The conflict over whether it should be an independent nation
00:12:19.700
or a facet of greater Russia goes back hundreds of years.
00:12:22.820
It's not going to end with the current conflict.
00:12:24.960
It's similar to the relationship between Quebec and Canada.
00:12:27.320
Quebec is a distinct community with a different language,
00:12:29.580
which has periodically challenged its incorporation to the larger state.
00:12:34.600
The majority of Ukrainians believe they have a right to a state of their own.
00:12:38.020
Putin and his people take quite a different view.
00:12:43.820
The situation in Ukraine really irks me because these people so desperately want you to think
00:12:54.680
I'm sorry, Crimea fought for independence in the early 90s.
00:12:58.380
And the greater Ukraine crushed their fight for sovereignty.
00:13:02.560
It is not as simple to say it's Putin versus the Ukrainians.
00:13:13.120
They're close to Russia and their arguments over where the border should be drawn.
00:13:16.820
And it is a conflict for which I think the U.S. has no reason to be involved with.
00:13:26.320
The difference between these two situations, of course,
00:13:27.940
is that Canada has found a way to keep Quebec in the fold,
00:13:30.900
primarily through allowing the province to have considerable sovereignty under its own affairs.
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He goes on to say it's it's simply not happening in in the most trouble,
00:13:39.440
troubled spots in most potential trouble spots.
00:13:42.540
The most dangerous, the dangerous of these is Taiwan.
00:13:46.740
But as Cohen notes, much of the human decision making is driven by forces other than logic.
00:13:50.500
In the case of secessionist movements, he documents in dream states,
00:13:53.880
the primary driver is usually a sense of identity,
00:13:55.780
the impulse to rally behind the group you feel you belong to
00:13:58.680
and the insistence on its right to act independently.
00:14:02.080
Identity can be a very powerful motivator, he said.
00:14:04.480
That's why I worry about the risk of civil war.
00:14:06.560
When it comes to something as strong as sense of community identity,
00:14:18.520
Maxine Waters said that President Trump is working towards a civil war.
00:14:22.640
Quote, I'm worried that Trump is on the edge of creating a civil war.
00:14:29.200
He alluded to the fact that if he did not get reelected,
00:14:34.500
And there still may be from Los Angeles Press dot org,
00:14:41.040
which I'm not familiar with, but they do have this and it is prominent on Google.
00:14:53.940
His speech at Fort Bragg was an open call for a second civil war.
00:14:59.680
But let me break it down for you, how they view things and how we and I view things.
00:15:07.920
I'd wake up and this is the early 90s, 91, maybe 92.
00:15:27.520
And I walked outside of my house, walked only a few blocks to the local park where
00:15:31.900
there were four baseball games happening at once.
00:15:37.640
I mean, the fields were far apart from each other,
00:15:39.200
but the ball could roll into the other part of the outfield for the other field.
00:15:47.160
My dad gave me some Kool-Aid materials, said, you're going to owe me the, I'm going to loan
00:15:54.000
Go sell Kool-Aid, but you got to pay me back for the Kool-Aid.
00:15:57.040
So me and my brother went to the park where they're playing baseball.
00:15:59.520
And we asked if anybody wanted to buy Kool-Aid from us.
00:16:06.040
Well, as I mentioned in a previous segment, I went home today and those baseball fields are
00:16:22.160
It's just as much my fault as it is yours or literally anybody else's.
00:16:26.160
To be fair, some are more responsible than others.
00:16:28.720
Some people had families bring their kids to ballgames and try and maintain that American
00:16:33.980
And I'm not saying baseball is the only thing football is fine, too.
00:16:38.560
There were things that Americans did for a while.
00:16:45.260
The people that made America and who gifted that inheritance to their children.
00:16:50.940
This includes immigrants, those who came here legally.
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We all worked to build a country with an agreement and a handshake.
00:17:01.280
This article right here says that Donald Trump is declaring a civil war.
00:17:05.140
Well, I look at New York with Zoran Mamdani, who Trump threatened to arrest.
00:17:13.920
That would be seditious conspiracy, sedition, in my view.
00:17:17.940
Zoran Mamdani said he will protect the families, the people from Trump's immigration enforcement.
00:17:30.340
What's happened is Americans are being replaced.
00:17:34.460
That is the hardworking Hispanic American who came here legally, whose family came here legally generations ago.
00:17:41.020
The Native American, the black American, those who are all the contributor to the building of this nation.
00:17:46.640
There are now people coming here en masse to the tune of 20 million who care not for our traditions, our laws, our baseball fields.
00:17:54.260
They just want to make money and live a better life.
00:17:56.940
I can certainly respect that, but they are not carriers of the American tradition, much like all of the people here.
00:18:05.480
The descendants of slaves have an entitlement to this nation for which they contributed.
00:18:11.700
Now, in Chicago, with the migration crisis, it was the black community that said we were being, quote, we are being replaced.
00:18:17.900
Now, it's shocking for all of the far left that want to claim it's white supremacy.
00:18:24.860
There are those of us that believe in the American promise, the American tradition and what our ancestors built.
00:18:30.160
Now you have Zoran Mamdani, a migrant legal, who is advocating for illegal immigrants to be protected.
00:18:36.540
He says he will do what he can to stop ICE, our law enforcement.
00:18:41.700
The way the left is framing this, they, along with their illegal immigrant friends, they're saying it's our country now and we will not let you stop us.
00:18:51.820
Then there are those that believe in the American tradition saying you have broken into our country and have usurped our traditions and you cannot stay.
00:18:59.240
I believe this is a fight for the soul of America and Donald Trump must deport these people.
00:19:09.060
These people who write this article saying that Trump is calling for a civil war, it's not a civil war.
00:19:13.640
There is an invasive force that has come here without resistance.
00:19:26.180
They come here and they say it's our country now, but they are not legal.
00:19:35.520
The land belongs to only those with the power and will to control it.
00:19:46.940
Earlier this week, Donald Trump called for a second civil war at a U.S. military base.
00:19:51.960
The scenario can be resisted and prevented if we have the courage to listen, interpret and act.
00:19:59.300
The speech was given at the base now known as Fort Bragg.
00:20:05.980
Under this administration, it was renamed Fort Bragg.
00:20:08.940
You see, there are those that would maintain the traditions, the good and the bad.
00:20:15.600
But the reason we name things after Confederate generals is not because we celebrate the Confederacy.
00:20:23.820
It's to celebrate the reunification of the Union and the recognition that we are all now Americans,
00:20:32.860
The statues of the Confederacy, to some, honor the legacy of the Confederacy.
00:20:37.240
To others, are a reminder of the civil war and the lives lost.
00:20:59.480
Protester involved in pulling down abolitionist statue in Wisconsin gets six months in jail.
00:21:07.140
In 2020, a Union Civil War abolitionist hero named Hans Christian Hegg.
00:21:14.820
His statue was toppled and beheaded by these protesters.
00:21:22.240
I thought this guy was writing some anger about Fort Bragg.
00:21:31.540
I am proud of this nation and Abraham Lincoln and the defeat of the Union.
00:21:41.780
His march to the sea, killing civilians and raising farmland, destroying railroads.
00:21:55.800
I also recognize the Union did horrible things.
00:21:58.140
Suspension of habeas corpus, the arrest of the Maryland legislature, not all of them, most of them.
00:22:10.900
We say away with the bad and forever with the good.
00:22:18.180
Now, this man says they renamed it Fort Bragg, the Confederacy.
00:22:22.060
That's a lie to manipulate liberals during the George Floyd riots.
00:22:27.260
They beheaded and destroyed Hans Christian Hegg.
00:22:30.520
They tore down and destroyed a statue of Frederick Douglass.
00:22:34.000
They took down George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Christopher Columbus.
00:22:37.780
It is not about the Confederacy or the left and right.
00:22:41.540
It is about the history of this nation versus those that would usurp it and destroy it.
00:22:46.780
So when Trump says our names, our history, it will be restored.
00:22:55.380
No, the reality is in 2020, they were tearing down statues and changing names because that is how you destroy a people and you destroy a nation.
00:23:06.540
But the resistance is now here to save and preserve this union.
00:23:10.860
And that is what Trump is doing rather imperfectly, but it's certainly what he aims to do.
00:23:20.040
This is why they say he's calling for a civil war.
00:23:23.440
Will Trump's disinformation presidency lead to a civil war?
00:23:26.460
They seek to burn this country to the ground, to reshape what it means to be American.
00:23:37.740
Is America headed for another civil war from STL News, July 6th?
00:23:44.760
They say a profound sense of unease pervades conversations across the country from bustling urban centers to quiet rural communities.
00:23:53.200
Headlines frequently decry unprecedented levels of political division, civil unrest and seemingly irreconcilable differences.
00:24:07.440
Today's polarization goes beyond typical partisan squabbles.
00:24:16.880
They're going to say, so with these deep divisions is a conventional civil war on the horizon.
00:24:23.200
Most political scientists and historians specializing in civil conflicts around the world believe a traditional 1860s-style civil war is highly improbable for a developed nation.
00:24:31.940
However, dismissing the possibility of any conflict would be naive.
00:24:36.900
Dr. Barbara F. Walter, a prominent political scientist who has extensively studied civil wars globally, has notably warned the nation exhibits several key indicators found in countries on the path to political violence.
00:24:53.120
They say, rather than a neat division into warring factions, a more likely scenario might involve a widespread civil unrest, localized conflicts, and a breakdown of social order in specific areas, where grievances fester and are expressed through violence.
00:25:10.760
This encompasses a decline in trust in institutions, a disregard for election results, and willingness by political actors to undermine democratic processes for partisan gain.
00:25:21.000
This anocracy, a state combining democratic and autocratic features, is identified by Walter as a particularly vulnerable space.
00:25:28.080
For example, when Democrats arrested Trump's lawyers, I'm going to say it again, because this is one of the most shockingly egregious things we've ever seen.
00:25:37.020
Trump's lawyers were arrested for simply providing legal services, accused of being part of a conspiracy.
00:25:52.980
They say for citizens across the nation, this means engaging in civil discourse, seeking out diverse news sources, a way to navigate turbulent waters.
00:26:03.640
While a full-blown civil war may not be knocking on America's door, the current trajectory is undeniably concerning.
00:26:07.720
The path forward requires a renewed commitment to democratic principles, a willingness to bridge divides, and a recognition that the nation's strength ultimately rests on a diverse populace's ability to coexist and work towards a common future.
00:26:23.940
Ignoring the warning signs comes at a perilous cost.
00:26:26.300
I think it's wonderfully naive to think that you're going to bring leftists who want open borders and who are too stupid to actually know what's happening in this country to the table to negotiate honestly.
00:26:46.020
Here's a mirasafety.com, what would a second American civil war look like?
00:26:50.560
I've cited this before, but it's actually quite a long read.
00:26:54.900
But they mention, interestingly, what a second civil war would look like.
00:27:08.280
If a second civil war would break out, certain parts of the country would see more conflict than others.
00:27:13.280
They mention the Mason-Dixon line might not be as clear cut this time, but the ideological contracts are just as strong.
00:27:20.460
Cities tend to be more liberal while rural areas tend to be conservative.
00:27:22.920
This could lead to urban centers clashing with the surrounding rural areas.
00:27:26.700
The violence in the streets becoming common occurrences.
00:27:29.060
A civil war could see urban governments trying to maintain control while rural militias mobilize against them.
00:27:45.060
But the rural areas are where the fighting started.
00:27:47.100
When people say it's unprecedented, they're wrong.
00:27:53.460
There are some cities that will quickly be conquered by conservative right-leaning forces.
00:27:59.700
Blue states with strong federal, with strong, I'm sorry, state governments will quickly start to suppress the rural areas.
00:28:10.640
Some states will be forced to join and others will be forced to join others.
00:28:17.020
Largely, the reason their leaders wrote they joined the Confederacy was proximity.
00:28:27.960
And when the Civil War started, they said, what are we going to do?
00:28:29.880
Stay in the Union, but be isolated and cut off from all the other states?
00:28:37.000
Surprisingly, that's where slavery finally technically ended in the United States.
00:28:41.540
Although, to be serious, the 13th Amendment actually ratified slavery.
00:28:51.160
We have this interesting article, which is recent, from just this week, charting multidimensional ideological polarization.
00:28:58.360
And they have this image, which is fascinating.
00:29:04.280
This image does use red and blue, but actually does not identify opinion.
00:29:16.600
What it's showing is the clusters of ideological homogeneity between the groups.
00:29:22.380
As you can see, opinions, while not defined for Republicans, are clustered.
00:29:26.920
There's a small center, very small, and then a large blue.
00:29:32.460
And you can see where the dark, dark blue clusters.
00:29:40.560
You've got the far left and the more moderate Democrats disagreeing.
00:29:43.900
As we can see in this chart, Democrats and Republicans are hyper-polarized.
00:29:47.940
But Democrats are actually at odds with themselves.
00:29:54.900
Even in the same section, notice it's the same shape.
00:29:58.260
The area that is largely Democrat holds different political views to the black.
00:30:03.960
White liberals hold different views to black liberals.
00:30:06.900
And just, this is not based on, like, if you overlaid all of these different colors,
00:30:14.280
But the point is, we can see where Democrats are and how they differ in their political views.
00:30:19.980
You can see here, the Republican area is dark, dark, dark red.
00:30:24.980
And then over here, liberals, they don't necessarily completely agree,
00:30:29.080
but they actually do agree more as white people than they do with black people.
00:30:35.760
What I would make the guess on is that the bottom cluster that is blue here for black,
00:30:41.840
these are likely the woke left, but we don't actually know.
00:30:45.040
The point is, you can see low-income, high-income.
00:30:49.180
You can see that low-income people tend to be Democrats aligning with the left,
00:30:59.960
Whether or not we get a civil war in 10 years, I honestly have no idea.
00:31:05.760
The tinder is below, and the spark could come at any moment.
00:31:12.200
There have been periods of civil strife that have not ended in civil war.
00:31:22.720
You know, there certainly is a lot more to talk about this.
00:31:25.100
And we'll have the conversation later tonight at TimCast IRL.
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So make sure y'all share the show with everybody.
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Make sure to come hang out for TimCast IRL, where we will be discussing all of these issues,
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as well as some of the latest developments, of course, as we always do.
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Let me try and grab some of your rumble rants while we're here.
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Behind the scenes, Cash and Dan are making a case against FBI agents that helped cover the list.
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Rain says, does everyone losing their mind over the Epstein files realize they are blindly
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believing an Axios article about a leaked unsigned memo?
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Pinochet says, why are we pretending that if it were a Civil War scenario, Democrats like
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those disarmed in Massachusetts would not all be blanketly blamed and collectively punished?
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You know, my friends, I don't know for sure what exactly happens.
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But what I will say is, our good friend Russell Brand is gearing up to go live, so we will begin
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We're coming back from the holidays, and a lot of people don't want to work.
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I'm going to send you on your way to hang out with our friend Russell Brand.
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Because it's in a big metro area, I think we've already, like, we're close to it.
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So pick up your tickets now before it's too late.
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I know we're looking at like a month and a half out for some of these shows, but the
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We bring you up onto the stage to join the debate.
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And we're going to have members of the public just coming up.
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Because some people might say something real crazy.
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Come hang out tonight at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL.