The Culture War - Tim Pool - Democrat Polling TANKING, CNN WARNS Democrats May LOSE The Midterms

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00:00:30.000 We are now just over three months away from the midterm elections. The question is,

00:00:35.560 will Democrats take back the House and the Senate? And will this put a stop to Trump's

00:00:41.080 second term agenda? Prediction markets say yes, Democrats are going to win. And the polling does

00:00:47.280 look generally good for the Democrats. There are many prominent pollsters who would argue that

00:00:52.600 Trump is not doing so well, the Republicans aren't doing so well. And these are guys that

00:00:56.040 once supported Trump were very much in the right populist camp. And that being said,

00:01:01.180 we've got new data coming out suggesting Democrats are actually in trouble this time around. Aside

00:01:07.700 from the fact that their polling is at a historic low, it is favorable, but it is ridiculously low

00:01:13.760 from where it should be in a midterm election as the opposition party. But we're also learning

00:01:20.440 that Republicans have close to a billion dollars

00:01:23.980 fundraised as of right now,

00:01:26.320 and Democrats are fairly broke.

00:01:29.680 Now, of course, the full 750 million or so and rising

00:01:33.820 is not just the RNC or the Republican Campaign Committee.

00:01:39.040 It's also super PACs.

00:01:40.580 It is the total coffers estimated

00:01:42.140 for political spending in this cycle,

00:01:44.720 which, oh boy, let me just say as a podcaster,

00:01:48.940 I'm really excited for the ad rates to skyrocket

00:01:51.480 because we're in the summer of the off season.

00:01:54.080 And one of the best days for those of us

00:01:55.660 that work in media covering politics is ad season.

00:01:58.940 I'm half kidding, but it's true.

00:02:01.260 They're gonna be dumping insane amounts of money

00:02:03.340 into this space.

00:02:05.120 YouTube is gonna start propping up videos to sell,

00:02:07.800 to offload that inventory.

00:02:09.600 Basically, it works like this.

00:02:11.480 The Republicans say we wanna spend $700 million.

00:02:14.160 That means you have to deliver that many views.

00:02:17.100 So YouTube says, show these videos to more people to maximize the views.

00:02:21.880 Now, the ads could theoretically appear in any particular space.

00:02:25.900 But if these advertisers are targeting someone who watches politics and they want them to

00:02:31.580 appear on political videos, that is going to guarantee a major boost in political viewership

00:02:37.520 for better or for worse.

00:02:39.740 Democrats, they're not looking as nearly as much money.

00:02:43.780 the DNC's broke with more liabilities than they have assets. And they're polling again,

00:02:51.620 while good, is historically low. I'm not saying all of this to play some game that's,

00:02:57.060 ha ha, Republicans are secretly winning. We actually don't know what's going to happen.

00:03:01.000 But this fight is far from over. And if spending is any kind of indicator of who will win,

00:03:08.200 then the prediction markets mean very little. On top of the polling, you have the redistricting

00:03:14.340 efforts. You have Donald Trump's executive orders on the post office and the delivery of mail-in

00:03:19.260 votes. And I assure you, the Republicans will be filing lawsuits before the election. Trump will

00:03:25.980 be issuing executive orders before the election, all with the intent of winning these midterms

00:03:31.800 procedurally. No longer, and it's been this way for a while, and it's probably been this way for

00:03:37.300 a long time. It's no longer about convincing people to cast a vote for an ideological position

00:03:43.380 or a policy position. Now it's just about maximizing the mechanisms in your favor.

00:03:49.780 So, my friends, I hope you're ready for this midterm season to get real freaky. Because I

00:03:56.280 have to imagine the lawsuits are going to make very little sense and they're going to be flying

00:03:59.260 all over the place and weird things are going to happen. Reportedly in the Senate, Iowa may

00:04:04.760 be a toss up at this point, which has everybody scratching their heads. That being said, we saw

00:04:10.540 many liberals claim that Trump would lose Iowa in 2024. And yeah, no, he won it by double digits.

00:04:16.020 So maybe everyone's just lost the plot. Well, that being said, we should get into the news

00:04:20.640 before we do head over to TimCast.com and click join now. Sign up for our discord community to

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00:05:05.360 We are the snowflakes that make that avalanche.

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00:05:11.200 Here's the story.

00:05:12.920 From The Independent, CNN's data guru warns Democrats about how little support they have heading into the midterms.

00:05:19.100 Oh, boy.

00:05:20.440 Well, we've got the video for you.

00:05:21.620 Let's start by just playing it and showing you exactly what's going on.

00:05:27.900 We've been talking about the fact that Democrats might be waking up this morning a wee little bit nervous.

00:05:33.580 Why is that?

00:05:34.760 Well, there's new polling out this weekend, which suggests that while they are leading in the so-called generic ballot test, the race for Congress,

00:05:43.320 it's not by much and certainly maybe not by enough with us now.

00:05:48.060 CNN chief data analyst, Harriet.

00:05:50.620 yet. So the numbers show what, Harry? They show a big uh-oh worry sign, at least compared to

00:05:57.220 history, because I want to take it back through the history machine. I want to note, OK, House

00:06:02.320 National July CNBC Washington Post poll average midterm years. This is the generic ballot, right?

00:06:08.120 Where were we back in 2006 when, of course, Democrats would go back on to win the House?

00:06:12.420 They were up by 12 in an average of those two polls. How about 2018? They were up by an average

00:06:16.940 of 10 in those two posts. Look at where that average is now. Well less than half of either

00:06:22.700 the level of 2018 and 2006. Way down there. Yes, they're ahead, but they're ahead. I have to shrink

00:06:28.600 down on the screen. They're ahead by only four points, which is significantly less than what we

00:06:32.860 saw in 2018 and 2006 when Democrats took back the House. So as I said, this is an uh-oh. This is a

00:06:38.900 warning sign. While yes, Democrats are ahead, not by anywhere near the margin they were in prior

00:06:43.900 wave years. Because four isn't 10. No. And it's not 12. No, that no. They taught me that back in

00:06:49.620 pre-K that four. We we get it. The point is this. When they won in 20 in 2018, they did. They were

00:06:57.640 up 10 points. They're currently only up four. Donald Trump's approval rating is bad across the

00:07:03.460 board. And I'm not interested in any singular poll. The method that I typically use is to track

00:07:07.760 the movement of all polls in aggregate and not any aggregate current and not any singular poll

00:07:13.500 poll currently. The reason why is every poll pollster has a different metric by which they're

00:07:19.060 rating the president or asking people how they feel about the president. So you'll see weird

00:07:23.640 things like one poll says Trump's minus 20 and one says he's plus two. Well, certainly they both

00:07:29.020 can't be right. The one thing you can track, however, is movement between the polls. So if

00:07:34.460 there's a heavily biased poll that says Trump is minus 20, the next day they say he's minus 15,

00:07:39.460 which is an improvement, you can take a look at the other polls that say he's positive.

00:07:43.520 Is he plus two? And the next day he's plus four. That shows positive movement from different

00:07:48.720 pollsters. The single aggregate isn't particularly valuable. The movement is.

00:07:53.980 Now, being said, I don't know that Donald Trump will be the defining factor in negative response.

00:08:00.920 That is, I don't believe that there are moderate or independent Democrat voters

00:08:06.600 that are being motivated by Donald Trump in the same way we've seen in the past several years.

00:08:12.580 That is to say, I think a lot of people just don't really care that much anymore,

00:08:16.080 and they're fairly burned out. A good example, Bill Maher said he'd consider voting for J.D.

00:08:21.480 Vance. Trump can't be president anymore. And he said he didn't even get mad when Trump calls him

00:08:25.920 names anymore. I think people are kind of desensitized to Trump after 10 years. But

00:08:31.920 for Republicans. Trump is a motivating figure. So I think Democrats are hurting because the party

00:08:39.180 has embraced weird ideology. Trump is not the strongest motivating factor the way he used to

00:08:44.800 be still is, but not the way he used to be. The Republicans are still very much motivated by

00:08:48.800 Donald Trump. I will throw into the mix. There are many middle of the road libertarian types

00:08:53.580 that are angry with Trump, but I don't know that that will translate into being opposed to your

00:08:59.940 congressional Republicans. Let's hear more from CNN. Or it's not 10 or 12. And not only that,

00:09:06.200 but four might not be enough with all the redistricting we've seen. That's exactly right,

00:09:12.420 Johnny B. So this isn't just, hey, you know what, we want to lead by eight or 10 or 12 because we

00:09:17.820 want an even larger majority. You might not even get the majority at all if, in fact, the House

00:09:22.140 popular vote ends up by four. Because just take a look at this. OK, the Washington Post-CNBC poll

00:09:27.240 lead? It's four on average, right? But what about needed to control with registered thing? You need

00:09:33.580 probably a three to four point victory nationwide in the national House vote in order to get a House

00:09:39.340 majority. You are right on the edge with this four point lead in the average of the CNBC,

00:09:44.220 Washington Post post, right on the edge of even getting that majority. And that's why I said this

00:09:48.920 is a very worrisome sign. This is troublesome for Democrats because despite all of Donald Trump's

00:09:54.140 unpopularity in the polls. They do not seem to be building an advantage that guarantees them the

00:09:59.900 House or anything close to a guarantee. It's very close, at least if you're listening to CNBC and

00:10:04.100 Washington Post. Okay, but given that the president is so unpopular, you just brought that up. Why is

00:10:08.620 it the Democrats might not be doing better? Yeah, that's called, I think I know what question is

00:10:12.500 coming next, and I'm going to lead right into it. Why is it? What is going on? Well, just take a look

00:10:17.820 at 2024 Trump voters in 2026, because I think this is really important. OK, Donald Trump's net

00:10:24.140 approval rating with them is plus 66 points. But how much is the U.S. House margin? Republicans

00:10:30.140 lead amongst these same voters by 87 points. In other words, there is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters

00:10:37.460 who right now aren't so hot to trot on Donald Trump, but are still very much in the Republican

00:10:42.220 camp. And that, to me, is the worrisome sign for Democrats, because how do you convince those

00:10:47.300 voters to necessarily go over to you because it seems to me that their baseline opinion is I want

00:10:52.100 to vote Republican even if I don't like Donald Trump and that's a very tough voter to convert

00:10:56.420 as opposed to independents who you know could go either way. These are people who've shown an

00:11:00.100 affinity for Republicans in the past and voting for Donald Trump in the past and right now they're

00:11:04.760 showing that exact same affinity to vote Republican in the midterms and that's why this race is much

00:11:08.780 tighter than I think a lot of Democrats would wish it would be giving Trump some pie. He's a lot of

00:11:13.660 words to say very little. Harry, calm down. You can be more succinct, but maybe they're trying

00:11:17.160 to fill time. So again, Donald Trump's not approval low, but the GOP House poll margin

00:11:23.040 actually fairly good. And we can factor in something else. Teddy Schleifer says new

00:11:28.260 Republican super PACs and party committees held a $724 million advantage over Democrats in cash

00:11:35.480 on hand as of June 30th. We can take a look at this right now. Republicans literally have a

00:11:41.860 billion dollars. A billion. Democrats have 334 million spread across the board. Interestingly,

00:11:49.500 the DNC is in massive debt. But the DSCC and the DCCC, those are their Senate and

00:11:58.000 congressional campaign committees, do hold about 120 million. Not bad. But when you take a look at

00:12:04.640 what the Republicans have, MAGA Inc. sitting on 400 million dollars. Guys, you can say what you

00:12:11.240 want about polls and Democrats and predictions, but money talks. When we track historically for

00:12:18.280 price for money spent, it's almost a one for one correlation that whoever spends the most money

00:12:23.940 tends to win. Can't say that for Michael Bloomberg. But let's jump to the 2026 Senate

00:12:31.960 election interactive map. Currently, the consensus on 270 to win is that we're looking at 47 Democrat

00:12:39.260 seats safe, 49 Republican seats safe. It is a toss up leaning Republican sort of. Is Maine going to

00:12:47.800 go Democrat? We don't know for sure. They lost grand planner. Who do they have? Not like the

00:12:53.180 Republicans up there are Republicans, but you get the point. Michigan, Ohio, Alaska is now considered

00:13:00.460 a toss up, which is shocking. Now, Alaska is where we start the idea of let's call it playing dirty.

00:13:05.380 In Alaska, there's a man named Dan Sullivan. He's running for office. There are now multiple Dan

00:13:10.240 Sullivans trying to get on the ballot so that regular old Alaskans won't know who they're

00:13:16.000 actually voting for and talk about evil. But my friends, it ain't just about polls. It's about

00:13:24.180 procedure. So I ran a few sims over with my French at GPT. Based on the current polling expressed by

00:13:29.940 Harry Enten. What would the number of seats be that Democrats win? It's actually not bad. It's

00:13:37.120 four to eight, it says. If you look at historic midterms and the polling advantage held by party

00:13:42.960 and how many seats they ended up winning, it's not always a complete correlation.

00:13:49.180 But if we're just doing a light estimation, Democrats are tracking, even with this minor

00:13:53.000 advantage, for about a four-seat lead, maybe even eight if they perform well. But hold on there a

00:13:59.200 gosh darn minute. Things change dramatically when you factor in Trump's executive order.

00:14:06.940 It actually says I would reduce the expected Democrat House gain by roughly three to eight

00:14:12.180 seats. It would end with Democrats holding a one seat advantage based on Trump's executive order

00:14:18.740 on the post office. Now I'm going to ask it. Let's factor in cash on hand and expected spend

00:14:27.000 with the GOP having, as of right now, $1 billion to Democrats, $335 million.

00:14:38.400 When you take a look at elections, it's unfortunate,

00:14:41.960 but basically when you look at cash spent, money talks.

00:14:46.140 You can do whatever you want, you can save whatever you want,

00:14:48.600 you can be wherever you want, but when you got the cash and you can spend the money,

00:14:51.040 you tend to win.

00:14:51.980 so what it says is that campaign spending has diminishing returns on both sides

00:14:57.280 money follows competitiveness the three-to-one cash advantage persists if if this persists

00:15:03.120 through election day which it's going to it's persisted for years and the republicans deploy

00:15:08.700 it properly in competitive districts democrats will not be able to close the gap and republicans

00:15:15.180 will actually end up winning in this capacity interestingly it says that the house will

00:15:20.940 actually have a Republican advantage of around five seats, which is pretty crazy. And in the

00:15:25.200 Senate, 52 to 48. It says under these assumptions, I'd keep confidence moderate rather than high

00:15:31.780 national conditions, presidential approval, inflation, economic growth and candidate

00:15:35.140 quality have historically explained more of the variation in House outcomes than campaign spending

00:15:39.100 alone. This is why I say it's important not to throw the baby out with a bathwater right now.

00:15:45.020 Democrats are the favorite. Let's pull up the House congressional map. Cal, she has Democrats

00:15:48.980 winning at 82%. People are really putting money. And hey, the wisdom of the crowd,

00:15:53.620 are they wrong? Right now, the estimate is 205 safe Democrats, 211 safe Republican with 19 toss-ups,

00:16:00.100 so it leans in favor of Republicans. I'm going to go and say this. I don't know who wins,

00:16:05.500 but it is far from a guarantee for Democrats. When you factor in redistricting,

00:16:11.080 the cash advantage, and Trump's procedural efforts, notably the post office executive

00:16:16.900 order, saying, hey, you can't deliver ballots to non-citizens, not to mention what we heard

00:16:21.980 with Mark Wayne Mullin.

00:16:23.080 They're going to cut off grants from states that don't purge non-citizens from their voter

00:16:27.280 rolls. 1.00

00:16:28.680 These advantages confer a potential Republican victory.

00:16:33.940 I say that's interesting, my friends.

00:16:35.800 We don't exactly know.

00:16:37.800 But what I do know is this.

00:16:39.520 Van Jones, he says the Democratic socialists have gone too far.

00:16:43.760 Will people abandon the Democratic Party because of their wackaloon lefties?

00:16:47.920 Well, listen, I cannot tell you this phone has been blowing up all day. 0.66

00:16:55.180 Governors from both parties, senators from both parties, Democrats in the House calling, thanking me for saying what everybody's been saying behind the scenes, which is that this stuff is going too far.

00:17:07.800 I am a progressive Democrat.

00:17:09.960 You want to talk about prison reform?

00:17:12.160 I've done it as well as anybody, Republican, Democrats in the South with Trump.

00:17:16.400 I've done prison reform.

00:17:17.760 I never said, have no prisons.

00:17:19.860 Where are you going to put the Klan?

00:17:21.280 I've done police reform.

00:17:22.740 I never said, no police.

00:17:23.840 Where are you going to put the pedophiles?

00:17:24.780 Who's going to grab the pedophiles?

00:17:26.040 This stuff is going too far.

00:17:28.460 And part of the thing that has to happen is we saw what happened in the Republican Party

00:17:31.720 when things started going in a nutty direction and nobody stood up.

00:17:35.840 I am happy that the young people are fighting for affordability, Medicare for all,

00:17:41.080 all the good things. I've been waiting my whole life to see a youth movement do what it's doing.

00:17:45.480 But it's being hijacked by people who are putting in nutty ideas supporting terrorists,

00:17:51.240 nutty ideas saying that we don't need cops in prison. We can't deport anybody even if they

00:17:55.540 rape somebody. Who said this? Chevalier. Where did Chevalier-

00:17:59.000 Chevalier is the Democratic nominee, sorry, DSA nominee for Congress now from the Bronx in New York.

00:18:06.300 I just want to say that there was a shockwave through this party when Mamdani, who everybody's excited about, stabbed in the back Espyat, who was the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, beloved by everybody, who backed Mamdani.

00:18:23.840 Mamdani said, I will back you.

00:18:25.480 Then he turns around, stabs him in the back. 0.97

00:18:27.680 Backed Chevalier. 0.54

00:18:28.380 And back to Chevalier, who has no credentials except she's known for having celebrated October 7th murders of Israelis on October 8th and never apologized.

00:18:38.520 This sent a shockwave through the party.

00:18:41.320 People said, hold on a second.

00:18:42.600 Why of all the people in New York City would Mom Donnie pick this person to betray someone and then no one says anything?

00:18:48.720 Everybody's quiet.

00:18:49.500 I'm not afraid to talk about it.

00:18:50.800 But that's why it's so important for him to say it.

00:18:53.220 Now that seat, though, let's take the example that you gave.

00:18:55.740 okay, that specific seat that we're talking about is a Democratic seat. So you can put someone as

00:19:01.260 far left as you want or moderate as you want, a Democrat's going to win. So I guess what I'm

00:19:06.320 saying, Gretchen, is does this affect the midterms when you're looking at seats that are not like

00:19:10.820 that? Seats that are purple where your nominee is not somebody who said the things that Van just

00:19:15.140 said. No, because look at the movement that's been created. It's what the media is talking about.

00:19:20.420 And it's not just in New York. We're talking about Michigan now. We're talking about Colorado.

00:19:24.760 we're talking about a bunch of other states where this movement is going on. And I think it was so

00:19:29.960 important that Van Jones said this, because quite honestly, you were thought of as way over on the

00:19:35.720 left. I am. I know. I know. Van Jones was the far left. But they make a really interesting point

00:19:42.620 that I think it's important to point out. Nationally, the victory of the far left will

00:19:50.100 have a weighting effect on moderate Democrats in these purple areas. So if you're a Democrat

00:19:56.600 and you are trying to play the moderate game, you do have a problem of the far left trying to weigh

00:20:03.300 down your campaign where you are. But then from a national campaign point of view, y'all are in

00:20:09.520 trouble. Regular people aren't going to be watching only local news and local advertisements.

00:20:15.480 They're going to get exposed to what's happening with the Democratic Party as a whole. And they're

00:20:19.260 going to relate what they see from people like Mondani and Chevalier to you, these moderate

00:20:25.300 Democrats. If you can even call them moderates, maybe they're pretending, whatever you want to

00:20:28.080 say. But I think that's going to have a down-weighting effect on these individuals where

00:20:34.300 they're going to lose a couple points because there are going to be moderates saying, I just

00:20:37.760 can't support Democrats anymore. It's likely why their polling is relatively low, despite being

00:20:42.800 positive, just low. Here's one of my favorite bits of data for this midterm. Nate Silver says,

00:20:49.940 Income and education are usually positively correlated, but sometimes the relationship

00:20:53.620 breaks down.

00:20:54.860 What's the most Democratic voting group in America?

00:20:57.540 People with postgraduate degrees, but lower to middle incomes. 0.57

00:21:02.400 Now, this says a lot.

00:21:05.100 You take a look at this on the silver bulletin, and we can see that those who make between

00:21:08.060 $30,000 and $60,000 per year who have postgraduate degrees, 70% lean Democrat.

00:21:17.560 And you know what this says?

00:21:19.260 I'm going to say it outright. These are low-competence individuals. That's it.

00:21:27.960 Now, what is the perception of the liberal? Having a postgraduate degree makes you an expert. It

00:21:32.420 makes you smart. Certainly, the only people who believe that are people who are, for the most

00:21:37.560 part, not smart. Any intelligent person knows that your capabilities don't come from a piece

00:21:43.080 of paper, and going through an administrative process doesn't prove you're good or capable

00:21:48.220 of doing anything. Now, across the board, postgrads all lean Democrat. The arguments that we get from

00:21:54.360 Democrats and liberals is that this proves that if you're educated, you vote Democrat.

00:21:58.580 Well, I think it shows many things, and we can say that it's an inverse correlation.

00:22:04.400 One could argue that people who are liberal tend to overvalue postgraduate degrees,

00:22:09.260 not that having a postgraduate degree makes you a liberal or that being

00:22:12.700 quote-unquote educated will make you vote Democrat. In fact, I think that's actually

00:22:16.940 much more probable. That is, if you are a Republican and you make $200,000 plus per year,

00:22:24.200 in the category of $200,000 plus per year high school or less, it is 41% leaning Republican.

00:22:31.920 For post-grads, it's 66% leaning Democrat. What I see here is, if you did not go to school,

00:22:39.120 you are likely working to solve your own problems. And as you can see,

00:22:43.280 Some of these people, they make large salaries.

00:22:45.980 Now, this is not a volumetric poll.

00:22:48.900 It's not saying that there's a million people of any one of these factions, just of these

00:22:53.040 factions, where do they lean?

00:22:54.980 I'll use myself as an example.

00:22:57.080 I'm fairly moderate.

00:22:58.780 I don't like what the Democratic Party is doing.

00:23:01.100 I think what I describe as universal basic health care would be fantastic.

00:23:05.280 That is, there are certain ailments that are beyond the scope of a public system, but setting

00:23:10.140 bones and treating the flu, we can manage and maintain these things. I think it's entirely

00:23:14.300 possible. People go to the ER already, right? We accommodate these people regardless. Nobody just

00:23:19.480 gives up and dies. I mean, some people, but for the most part, they don't. We just need to figure

00:23:23.400 out how to stop people from going into massive medical debt when they get a broken bone, which

00:23:28.320 is serious. It's true. Also, having babies is very, very expensive. We got to figure those

00:23:34.180 things out. But I am somebody who did not finish high school nor college, and I would say that I

00:23:44.300 have tremendous merit and capabilities. Now, if you ask any reasonable person who's intelligent,

00:23:53.160 I mean legitimately intelligent, multi-ordered thinking, etc., they're going to say that whether

00:23:57.640 you go to college or not does not determine whether or not you'll be successful. But for

00:24:01.700 most of these midwits, I'd say particularly at the low end of competency, they're going to make

00:24:06.800 this argument. The reason why they're so reliable Democrats and probably lean very far left

00:24:10.640 because they will say it's not fair. I got a degree. Why aren't I making more money?

00:24:17.880 They're going to say I have a postgraduate degree in folklore and mythology, but I'm working as a

00:24:23.840 barista. By the way, everybody knows that leftists make the best coffee. You go to a coffee shop and

00:24:30.480 it's got American flags and conservatives behind the counter and you know your coffee's going to

00:24:33.500 be, it's okay. But you know, when you see that purple haired pride flag lady, you are going to 1.00

00:24:38.820 get the swirls and the whip and all the good stuff. That's the joke they say, right? But these 1.00

00:24:43.360 people are angry. They're saying, I did everything I was supposed to do, but I can't succeed.

00:24:47.620 The reality is the degrees are largely worthless. It was never your degree that was going to

00:24:52.840 guarantee income. They lied. They say this. I love it. They say people who have college degrees

00:25:01.180 tend to make more money than people who don't. Now, if you're a first ordered thinker, if you're

00:25:06.700 a midwit, you're going, wow, if I get a degree, I'll make more money. That's not at all what the 1.00

00:25:12.700 data means. The data actually breaks down in a bunch of different ways. For one, it says that

00:25:18.060 people who are driven to pursue a passion are more likely to pursue that passion in work.

00:25:25.180 That is, whether you go to college or not, if you are willing to work hard to improve yourself,

00:25:30.320 you will make more money. So this factor could be people with postgraduate degrees,

00:25:36.380 some of them, maybe the 30%, decided to improve their knowledge base through college.

00:25:41.900 Regardless of going to college, they were driven to be the best. And so they make more money.

00:25:47.300 Then there is another and my favorite and the most glaringly obvious.

00:25:51.860 People with degrees tend to have debt and require salaries that are higher than those without.

00:25:57.620 The question is, is your standard of living improving by having gone to college?

00:26:02.660 And the truth is, there is a correlation there.

00:26:05.980 In fact, people with college degrees, even with debt, tend to have more disposable income.

00:26:11.800 But it is lower than the rate at which they are being paid.

00:26:16.740 Interesting. So what I would say is, while it certainly plays a role that people make more money because they have college degrees and need to pay off their debt, they actually do generally make more money based on the skill set that they attained through going through a training program.

00:26:31.120 I'm not trying to just act like there's no value whatsoever. So the hypothetical is, if you go to college, you're going to have a couple hundred bucks a month in student loan repayments.

00:26:43.480 So you're going to tell your boss, I got to make more money.

00:26:46.140 You can't pay me 40.

00:26:47.240 It's got to be 45.

00:26:48.280 Otherwise, I can't make my student loan payments.

00:26:50.740 So now you're making more money, and that factors in.

00:26:53.640 That being said, the jobs that you end up getting with a degree do tend to correlate

00:26:58.960 slightly higher with higher skill jobs, even if it's not that much of a higher skill.

00:27:03.240 And so the data does actually show you'll have a couple more grand per year for disposable

00:27:07.800 spending than your non-college educated counterpart, likely due to the fact that you're going to

00:27:12.280 be working jobs that tend to pay more. They just do. They're harder to find, things of that nature.

00:27:19.820 Now, ultimately, my point here is this. Why are we seeing a rise of these socialists? Why is AOC

00:27:24.680 going to be president? Well, running for president, we'll see if she actually makes it. 1.00

00:27:31.880 It's because midwits did not know what to do with their lives. They were told to go to college,

00:27:37.040 so they did. They learned some things. They're not the smartest people in the world, and they're

00:27:41.580 of moderate to low competency. So they go to socialists and they say, I should make more

00:27:48.900 money. I'm smart. And the socialists say, yeah, but clearly you're not. I'm not trying to be mean.

00:27:55.020 I'm going to tell you this. Let me put it this way. I have had this thought to myself long time

00:28:02.520 ago. If I really am so smart, why aren't I a billionaire? Why aren't I rich? I've played

00:28:10.240 video games where I've, you know, there's a game called Trade Wins where you buy and sell and make

00:28:14.520 a lot of money. I've played those games. I've beaten these games. I've figured out these

00:28:18.460 systems. I've found the exploits I've made in these games, points and money. If I'm so smart,

00:28:24.240 well, the reality is I'm not so smart. That's just it. I get it. If I was really smart,

00:28:30.820 I'd be a billionaire. I think I'm smart. But what does that really mean? A little bit more

00:28:36.160 than average, probably, but I'm willing to work really, really hard. I've known this for a long

00:28:40.760 time, my friends. There are many people who probably are stupider than me in many ways, 0.99

00:28:45.960 but better than me at this. They work three times a week and they make 10 times the money. 0.99

00:28:52.820 Some people do one podcast per week and they're getting paid 10 times the money I make.

00:28:58.300 So you know what I realized? What I cannot accomplish with talent and intelligence,

00:29:03.520 I must make up with hard work.

00:29:06.580 And while I do consider myself to be reasonably intelligent,

00:29:09.920 I think if you watch my show,

00:29:11.300 you probably assume that to be true

00:29:12.420 that I'm somewhat smarter than average.

00:29:15.260 I actually don't believe

00:29:16.620 that I'm the smartest person in the room

00:29:17.900 or the smartest person in the world

00:29:18.940 or the best podcaster there is

00:29:20.160 because I'd be running a better business,

00:29:23.240 making a lot more money.

00:29:25.520 I've reached my capacity.

00:29:27.040 I work double shifts every day

00:29:29.060 because that is my path towards making more money.

00:29:32.520 Where I cannot accomplish it with talent and intelligence, I have to fill in the gap with extra work.

00:29:41.180 That lesson would go very far for these socialists.

00:29:44.300 That's the reality.

00:29:45.880 You want to be rich?

00:29:47.160 Maybe you can never be.

00:29:48.120 Not everybody can.

00:29:49.680 I'm rich.

00:29:50.920 What did I do?

00:29:51.620 I decided to work twice as hard so that I can exponentially increase my returns and build a business.

00:29:58.700 I could have stayed where I was.

00:29:59.900 And I've talked about this.

00:30:01.280 maybe I could have just stayed in that house in Jersey

00:30:04.140 never launched Timcast IRL

00:30:05.480 only worked the mornings

00:30:06.600 I'd make about $300,000 to $400,000 per year

00:30:08.680 actually to be fair

00:30:09.340 I was doing about a million

00:30:10.060 before Timcast IRL

00:30:11.760 IRL really blasted us off

00:30:13.340 but I was making a lot of money

00:30:15.660 and I said I can do more

00:30:18.040 and this seems to be where I end up

00:30:21.340 there are many people

00:30:22.880 who make millions of dollars per year

00:30:24.320 they're never going to be billionaires

00:30:25.460 and there's only one Elon Musk

00:30:27.640 but for these people

00:30:29.640 they don't want to work. They just want to have the money. They feel they're owed it,

00:30:35.540 but that's never how the world worked. And so they're going to vote for communists and socialists.

00:30:41.660 And in the end, I think the people that do work hard are going to reject this. AOC is not ruling

00:30:47.360 out a run for president. Okay. I don't think she's going to be able to win for a variety of reasons.

00:30:54.220 I think most people do understand the value of hard work.

00:31:00.020 In this world, it just doesn't.

00:31:03.260 But I'll leave it there, my friends.

00:31:04.320 You tell me what you think's happening in the comments below.

00:31:07.100 Will Democrats take it?

00:31:08.220 We are three months out.

00:31:10.800 We got the prediction markets are raging.

00:31:12.240 They're saying Democrats, so the value bets for the Republicans.

00:31:15.200 You can follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast.

00:31:17.000 Stay tuned.

00:31:17.660 We got more coming up for you throughout the day with TimCast IRL at 8 p.m.

00:31:20.500 And we will see you all then.

00:31:24.220 You

The Culture War - Tim Pool - July 21, 2026

Democrat Polling TANKING, CNN WARNS Democrats May LOSE The Midterms

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