00:03:34Well, that piece went completely viral. Halpern later posted on X that 17 additional Republican strategists later confirmed to him that his reporting is accurate and that they were seeing the same thing.
00:03:46Well, Mark has continued his reporting and he is here to share what exactly he's seeing.
00:03:51All right. We are 36 days out and might as well know the truth because it's coming.
00:03:56It's coming for us like freight train just over a month away.
00:03:59Mark is the host of Next Up with Mark Halperin right here on the MK Media Podcast Network.
00:04:04Go and subscribe now on YouTube and all podcast platforms.
00:04:08We are just over a month out, but the midterms are fast approaching.
00:04:13And make no mistake, if the House flips, it's a big deal for our economy.
00:04:19This uncertainty is one of the reasons to consider diversifying with gold from Birch Gold Group.
00:04:24In the three months leading up to the 2024 presidential election, the price of gold jumped
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00:04:58989898. Mark, welcome back. So did you expect to unleash such a torrent of upset with your first
00:05:08column? I really didn't, because as you said, anyone who's got any sources in Republican
00:05:12politics knows that this is the state of play right now. It's not a prediction. It's not a
00:05:18guess. It's not based on looking at public polls, which are mostly junk. People are right to be0.98
00:05:23suspicious of them. Ask almost any Republican strategist. Chris LaCivita maybe is an exception.
00:05:29And they'll tell you right now things are very grim. There are races that they weren't0.93
00:05:33thinking would be in play that are now in play. And ever since I wrote it and ever since Chris
00:05:39posted what he posted, I've said, if you're a Republican strategist and you agree with Chris
00:05:44La Vida and you disagree with my reporting and you're working on any races, contact me. I'm up
00:05:49to 45 now. And all 45 have said one of two things. Either my reporting is spot on, Republicans are
00:05:56facing a tough situation, or about half of those 45 have said, you've actually understated the
00:06:01case. The problem's bigger than your sources so far have described it. I'm not Christmas. All
00:06:07right. Give it to us straight. Give it to us straight. How bad is it? Well, look, there's
00:06:11still republicans have a money advantage they have an operational advantage with james blair
00:06:16the president's political lieutenant the president could could start driving messages that are
00:06:20helpful as opposed to unhelpful messages like i love data centers and i love ai if that happens
00:06:26maybe things will change but right now i'd say democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats
00:06:31net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns could be bigger0.98
00:06:38Oh, I mean, that that will get you called full of shit every time by Chris Lasavilla, because those are awful numbers.0.92
00:06:48And now you're talking about that's more than a blue wave. That's it. We're tidal wave.0.99
00:06:53We're looking at the New Jersey coastline after this three day nor'easter kind of situation.
00:06:58Yeah. And now, again, there are a lot of races that are close. The good news for Republicans, besides their money advantage, is these Democratic Party brand is crap. Democrats have a lot of inexperienced candidates. They've not played at this level. Republicans have a plan to define them. And the negative ads are just coming out.
00:07:19But when you're talking about South Carolina and Mississippi as potentially in Kansas as being in play, you know, there's a problem.
00:07:27And again, for people who want to say, well, he's just going on the fake polls.
00:07:31I almost never read the public polls because I agree with most of the public that they're mostly not that valuable.
00:07:37But I'm talking to Republican campaigns, to consultants and candidates involved in contested races.
00:07:42And they say the worry is any close race, they'll lose because they've lost a lot of support from independents.
00:07:50And you need to inspire your base, but you need independents.
00:07:53And right now, independents are just in a mood to send a message to the Republican Party in most places, not every place, that they want to change.
00:08:11I wouldn't be voting Democrat, but I'm feeling what everyone's feeling, which is like, what happened?
00:08:18How do we get bogged down in an Iranian war that no one supports?
00:08:23Why is the White House trying so hard to turn A.I. into a red versus blue issue rather than actually considering whether people have legitimate fears and concerns around it?
00:08:33You know, like every other week, there's a story about how much money the Trump family is making, but the American people are suffering mightily as a result of this economy and inflation and in particular high gas prices.
00:08:47And God forbid you come anywhere near needing diesel gasoline, which almost everyone does.
00:08:54I mean, if you drive a truck, you need diesel gasoline.
00:08:56If you operate heavy machinery, you need diesel gasoline.
00:09:00If you fly in a plane, you're you're paying for it.
00:09:02It's like, it's everywhere, as Doug Brunt, author of The Mysterious Case of Rudolf Diesel,
00:09:07and now the follow-up, which is The Lost Empire of Emmanuel Nobel, pointed out to us.
00:11:44And then in Mississippi, the Democrats have a decent candidate.
00:11:47and there's a story in the Wall Street Journal today about how big donors are thinking of going
00:11:51in there. They may not win those two races. But again, just like with Kansas, the fact that these
00:11:56places are close. Kansas is another one. And Florida. We have to talk about Kansas and Florida.
00:12:01The fact that these places are close says something. Kansas, I really don't think the
00:12:04Republican incumbent, Roger Marshall, is the leader at this point. I think he's going to have
00:12:09to fight back. And, you know, when J.D. Vance spends a day in Kansas, you know, they're concerned
00:12:15about it there's no hiding the president the vice president their schedules tell the tale
00:12:19the president's going to uh going to um alabama the president's alabama president's going to
00:12:26oklahoma you know that tells you why are you saying words like alabama and mississippi and0.99
00:12:31oklahoma stop saying those words this is it'd be like if barack obama was five alarm fire shit0.99
00:12:36like if barack obama in the last month was going to vermont right you just say well if he's going0.99
00:12:41to vermont obviously there's a huge problem for democrats and and and that's what's happening now
00:12:45It doesn't mean they're going to lose them all. They're doing what they think they need to do to try to save some of these seats. But I wouldn't be surprised, again, if they lost well more than the number of Senate seats that people have talked about. They could also, you know, hold them all because, again, this is probably the best news for Republicans, Megan.
00:16:52Your piece for the Daily Mail that caused all the kerfuffle has the following line,
00:16:57I have an investment banker friend who once offered this sage advice, sometimes the appropriate
00:17:01response in a crisis is, in fact, to panic.
00:17:06And then you point out that while the Trump White House is maintaining a stiff upper lip,
00:17:10The code of political omerta was broken by veteran Iowa talk show host Steve Dace, who said yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a plus 15 district, you're within the margin for error.
00:17:26If you are in a plus 10 district, you're underwater and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.
00:17:40This, as the the Cook political report you point out, has shifted its outlook for Senate races in multiple races, including in Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932.
00:17:55And yet, Cook is shifting the outlook there to more beneficial. It was likely Republican. Now it's only lean Republican. That doesn't mean it's going to be a Dem pickup, but it's shocking to see it move to the left, raising hopes on Team Blue for the first time in 700, almost 100 years.
00:18:18not to mention what we just discussed in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and so on.
00:28:18I mean, he was just cozying up to Zoran Mamdani, which is like truly, as I think I was saying to you last week on your show, who wanted to see that?
00:28:28Who on earth wanted to see Trump and Mamdani as BFFs?
00:29:44He is not some extremist, and he's telegraphing, look at me.
00:29:49Like, here's a Democrat, you know, a communist, and I can get along with him.
00:29:53The problem is that everybody in New York State and beyond in the Republican Party is using Momdani as their poster boy for the evils of the DSA and what is likely to come our way if we go DSA in the midterms.
00:30:10So it's not great to have the arm around him like patting him. This is my buddy and we're going to be friends because we truly pick up the New York Post on any day of the week and he's on the cover being attacked and for good reason.
00:30:25Yeah, I thought when you and I talked about it last week, I thought you explained it well, like Trump's just attracted to New York things and he's attracted to, you know, other people who are good and popular because he is popular in New York.
00:30:39I think another factor, somebody mentioned to me yesterday.
00:31:08Yeah. Like have your own game. He likes winners. So if you are strong, you know, like take an Elon, but don't kiss ass. You can you can make it in Trump's world. But if you get openly antagonistic, forget about it. You know, I mean, honestly, I can relate to this because I think Trump and I have always, for the most part, gotten along. We've had our downs, as everybody knows. But, you know, then I started criticizing him over the Iran war and he attacked me and, you know, things haven't been the same since. And that's fine. That's the risk you run if you're going to be an honest political commentator.
00:35:20to the presidency to probably to the negotiations to just just there's no reason and like people
00:35:26are associating it with their gas prices so like it's just it's there's no upside there's no upside
00:35:32to talking about the war let other let other people let secretary rubio talk about it let
00:35:38scott bassin talk about it but just just do other stuff because there's just it literally is is only
00:35:45negative as best anybody I know can tell. And the stakes are so high. It's not talking about
00:35:51the ballroom. It's talking about trying to end a conflict, which has huge implications for
00:35:56American security and economics. It's a mess. It's like between Ukraine, which Vladimir Putin
00:36:02has been a stubborn mofo and so has Zelensky. Trump genuinely thought he could go in there0.99
00:36:08and settle the thing in 10 days, I think he said. Of course, that turned out not to be true because
00:36:13they're just so dug in on their, well, we know why. And then Israel, you know, Iran, same. So0.72
00:36:20it's just, all of this is, I think what's driving down the numbers that like on a gut level of
00:36:25somebody who remains a Trump supporter, like I really do want Trump to succeed. I feel grateful
00:36:31that the pieces of the agenda that I was very vocal in supporting and the reasons I stood up
00:36:35there and endorsed him, he really has delivered on and continues to deliver on, namely closing the0.93
00:36:42border and attacking the trans mania, especially when it comes to our children. I mean, just last1.00
00:36:48week, there was yet another news item about six more hospitals agreeing to stop performing these
00:36:54barbaric surgeries on children under threat by Trump that he would find a way to close them if
00:36:59they didn't. So God bless him for that. But like so much of the agenda has been muddied by these
00:37:04other things that are contrary in the minds of many of us, not everybody, to what he promised
00:37:10to do, that it's people don't feel enthusiastic anymore. So I don't know, Mark, what would you
00:37:15tell him if he calls up Mark Halpern after he gets mad at you for your columns and says, Mark,
00:37:19you're one of the most astute political observers in America today. What should I do between now
00:37:25and 35 days from now to help my party? How would you answer? I would say I don't give advice to
00:37:30politicians, Mr. President. Thank you. Thank you for calling. Why can't I have an interview?
00:37:35What have you said? You can say it on the MK show and I'll tune in.
00:37:38Look, I think the thing you said, stop talking about Iran. Stop talking about Ukraine unless you got something to say that's meaningful. Stop diminishing your words. And then, you know, I'll tell you what most Republicans I talk to say. They say, do stuff like he's doing today. Announce a big new deal for a multibillion dollar investment in a state like Iowa involving steel. Like that's that's what they want to see him doing.
00:38:03They want to see you want to see him talking about stuff that means something to the real lives of real people, not the ballroom, not Don Jr.'s wedding, not whether Iran's going to be annihilated or not.
00:38:14That's what every Republican I talk to say the same thing.
00:38:17Use your ability to persuade people by talking about things that they'll say, well, that's going to make my life better.
00:38:22Yeah. He told, when did he say, who did he tell this to when he said he's not going to be campaigning that hard for the midterms because he said he's kind of tired of politics and he worked hard enough just to get himself elected, which, frankly, I mean, honestly, yeah, he's not wrong.
00:38:42But I don't know how much he's going to be doing between now and the midterms.
00:38:46But I do think he's got skin in the game, even though Trump, you know, I don't think he really identifies with the Republican Party.
00:38:53Right. I think he he's Trump and like he created MAGA, which isn't exactly synonymous with the Republican Party.
00:39:00But I think hopefully he's been made to see that his fortunes will be hurt if the Republicans lose his personal political fortunes.
00:39:09that is, over the next two years, if Republicans lose both houses. He says, I'll be a blocker,
00:39:14but that's not exciting. The American people need help.
00:39:17He's such a student of history, which people don't often credit. He knows the history. There
00:39:22were two extraordinary circumstances, the Clinton impeachment and 9-11, that allowed a president
00:39:27to not lose seats in the midterms. But he knows those are the exceptions in the modern era. So
00:39:32he kind of often will feel a slave to history or a prisoner of history. There's nearly nothing he
00:39:38can do at the same time people say he doesn't care about the midterms he doesn't like to lose
00:39:42you know he just he just he just all but i don't think he thinks that's him well i i genuinely
00:39:47believe trump sees a big delta between the party and i agree that that's his general attitude but
00:39:53i also believe that he knows that he will be tagged he knows again he knows what happened
00:39:58when barack obama you know talked about a shellacking he knows what happened uh you know
00:40:02with the Republican Revolution and Newt Gingrich.
00:40:05Like, he is aware that even though he might be detached emotionally
00:40:10and intellectually from it, he's aware that he will be blamed for it.
00:40:14And he'll be particularly blamed because whether there's exit polls or not,
00:40:19if there's a shellacking, no one's going to doubt the reasons for it.
00:40:24No one's going to doubt the reasons for it.
00:40:25As weak as the Democratic Party is, it's because of the war and gas prices
00:48:08Why are the Latinos so drastically against Republicans now?
00:48:12Well, mostly for the reasons that independents are and young people, including young men, are they they're not happy with the nature of the government.
00:48:19They're not happy with the war. Some aren't happy with the way Epstein was handled.
00:48:23And in the case of Hispanics, some of them have not liked the ICE and border border enforcement, you know, in Minnesota and elsewhere where the president has waffled on.
00:48:36is he only going after the worst, the worst, only going after those who've committed additional
00:48:40crimes, or is he going after everybody? So there's some specialty reasons, and that's what her thing
00:48:45was about. Her thing was about the border, but there's some specialty things that Hispanic voters1.00
00:48:49are upset about, but I would say if you talk to Hispanic voters who voted Republican but now have
00:48:54drifted either to Democrat or undecided, it's just the same thing as for everybody else. They don't0.97
00:49:00understand why we're in a war, why prices are so high. Yeah, that's what we learned when we went
00:49:05into 2024 is the the reason they were voting for trump is they hated the economy they hated the
00:49:12inflation and it was one of those oh latinos they're just just like us they have the same
00:49:17economic concerns they're going to vote based on the same issues but i do think it's interesting
00:49:21that you have like republicans running to the immigration thing and criticizing ice and saying
00:49:27like you know there should be more coordination with locals wasn't that the kansas message that
00:49:31we just saw like no we need to coordinate more with the locals on this it was like from republican
00:49:35lawmakers so they must be hearing something unless they're just misreading the latino backlash like
00:49:42but they're like so many politicians often do and think that they're just all about immigration
00:49:46i think there's some of that but basically and this is we didn't talk about florida you mentioned
00:49:51it this is the problem is the president's unpopular in florida and kansas and so for a lot of these
00:49:56republicans they're just looking for an issue whether it's the war immigration uh diesel a
00:50:01diesel fuel export embargo. They just want to be on the record as saying, I don't agree with Trump
00:50:06on everything, even if they don't phrase it that way. Because the president's super unpopular.
00:50:10Florida would be in play, both Senate race and governor's race, except the Florida Republican
00:50:16Party has so much organization and money and voter registration advantage. But even Florida,
00:50:20which has been a citadel for the Republican Party, is a problem right now, primarily because
00:50:27of the president and the unpopularity of both him and his policies.
00:53:38She's accomplished a lot over her five decades in the public eye.1.00
00:53:45And I don't know, I truly, for one, would love to see her be an example of being a badass bitch at age 68 who, after all the years of nonstop sexual titillation or attempts at it,1.00
00:54:04somehow finds the courage and inspiration to lean into a new way of exciting us.0.92
00:54:14Because let's be honest, I don't think most men out there are feeling really excited about the0.73
00:54:22secret possibility of having sex with a post, post, post menopausal woman like Madonna.0.99
00:54:29And I'm only saying that because her whole shtick seems to be, have sex with me.1.00
00:54:34look how I might be while I'm having sex because she's on the ground writhing with her legs apart1.00
00:54:40with hip thrusts. So clearly she wants you to have that image in your head.1.00
00:54:44And I am here to tell her that there comes a time when you really should shift the message.
00:54:52It doesn't mean you can't be sexy at all. It doesn't mean you have to give up wanting action
00:54:58in your personal life. But this is the problem for aging sex symbols. Women who have decided to make
00:55:05that, their sexiness, their calling card, they've got a decision to make. You could go like fully1.00
00:55:14the other way, like Pam Anderson, which has been, by the way, a smash success. She, I don't think,
00:55:21has lost the affection of men. I think men who used to want to sleep with her are looking at her0.91
00:55:26now is like, I like her. She's cool. They're probably not thinking I want to take her to bed
00:55:31the way they did back in the barbed wire days. She doesn't wear any makeup now. She looks far
00:55:37less barbified and she's fine with that. She likes the face in the mirror matching the one0.76
00:55:43she sees on Instagram or so she has said publicly. You don't have to go that far. Like I always wear
00:55:51makeup when I go out in my down days. I think it's in part because I'm just so used to seeing
00:55:56my face more heavily made up when I do the show. So like to go completely bare, even to me, it's
00:56:01like weird looking. It's almost like, oh, wow, I'm almost not used to that person, but okay.
00:56:07Then you could go the full Pam Anderson. My point is simply to try so desperately to stay
00:56:13in the Sydney Sweeney lane looks just that desperate. It doesn't look attractive. I don't
00:56:21think it's having the intended effect. And I do think there's an opportunity for her to do kind
00:56:28of what Pam Anderson did, which is still have men being like, Madonna's cool. Good for her. She found1.00
00:56:34a way to redefine herself. That's what she was famous for back in the 80s and the 90s and the1.00
00:56:40early aughts, redefining herself, like a brand new way of shocking us or exciting us or getting1.00
00:56:47attention. It was always related, though, to something around sexual titillation. And wouldn't
00:56:54it be the ultimate hat trick? I guess that's not the right term, right? Because that's a hockey
00:56:58term that I think means something. In any event, wouldn't it be the ultimate trick to do it yet
00:57:04again without that shit? Because truly, like, okay, she's 68 now. When she's 78, when she's 88,1.00
00:57:11do we still play along? When she's 88, if she's able to, like, gyrate on a stage,
00:57:16Do I need to look at that and say I feel empowered as a woman? Because that does not make me feel empowered at all. At all. I would love, love for Madonna to find a new way of coming out and showing women this is a lane that's available to you at 68. That is me leaning into my fully empowered badass self. I have fucking more money than God. I'm internationally known, first name only.0.59
00:57:43I still have my talent such as it is. I mean, she was never known as like a great singer
00:57:48or even as a great dancer. She was always known as a great entertainer.
00:57:52Kind of like Paula Abdul, only a lot more famous and more successful. Paula Abdul was in the news
00:58:00back when she was at her peak as she wanted to be listed in her IRS tax returns as entertainer.
00:58:05I think that's what Madonna is. I just, whatever. This, what she's doing here is degrading.
00:58:13She's degrading herself. And I, look, I'm talking about her. I guess maybe she would consider that0.93
00:58:22a win. I don't see this as a win. I really don't. I am feeling kind of sorry for her. Like I,
00:58:28I feel like she, she looks a little sad to me. The whole situation is a little sad.
00:58:34And I wish her daughter, Lourdes, would step in and say, Mom, you're too cool for this shit.0.99
00:58:43Please be the too cool person that I know you can be, like Tina Turner was.0.99
00:58:53She had on the shake the tail feathers outfits, and she could shake it like nobody's business while she was a great singing talent.
00:59:00But as she got older, what did she do?0.99
00:59:03She still showed off those million-mile legs and the buff arms, and she had the hair, but she was appropriate.1.00
00:59:13She wore, like, the leather number, but, like, she wasn't showing off her ass, like, and her badge and the boobs with the nipples all the time.0.94
00:59:21Like, I don't—it's just there's a line, and I think to have class is to know where it is.0.94
00:59:28one other thing i was saying to my team like having i'm not against facial work i'm sure i
00:59:37will get a facelift someday um that's fine but i like i think doing it non-stop like to the point
00:59:46where it's like really obvious which is what i think madonna has done i think she might be at
00:59:52these two facelifts in, is just weird. You look weird. You look old with a tight face,
01:00:00an oddly tight face. And clearly she's had enormous lip injections and filler all over
01:00:07her face. And what that does is make your face look heavy, not youthful. Look at this.
01:00:12Look at those lips. She had nice, normal lips. And that picture on the left is with liner,0.99
01:00:18for sure, and lipstick. And so she had perfectly full lips. Honestly, those lips look literally0.97
01:00:24perfect. And now over on screen, right, we are, we have gone the full Kim Kardashian
01:00:29and look at how heavy her face looks. That's from filler in my view. These claims have not
01:00:36been evaluated by a doctor, but I'm just saying it looks like it's weighed down the entire face
01:00:43with filler in the lips, filler in the cheeks.
01:05:44Everything will be in the state of consciousness.
01:05:53So it's all the dancers in like dry ice, dragging each other around, legs out.0.98
01:06:00Yeah, I don't know if this is like simulated blowjobs or what.1.00
01:06:03But there's lasers coming out of the vag or the ass, and then Madonna also had that.1.00
01:06:12And she would later make remarks when she got to the microphone to, like, actually speak, pretending to, like, pull the laser out of her ass and drop it.1.00
01:13:58And this is what happened with their boy. It's very sad. Like, it's it's very sad to me that they allowed their son to get caught up in the gender madness that is contagious in New York.
01:14:13The audience will recall we pulled our children from the New York City schools because they were trying to shove it down the throats of all of our children who had zero gender confusion, but not for lack of trying by the schools.
01:14:25And this is what can happen if you don't intervene and if when your child, you know, almost invariably persuaded by some forum on Reddit or a teacher gets swept up into this and you are told by the psychiatric community to affirm, affirm, affirm, affirm.
01:14:43And I'm just going to tell you, Kai Schreiber did not look so happy in those photos.
01:14:49And I don't think Kai Schreiber is likely to have a happy existence because none of them does.
01:14:58It's, you know, nine times out of ten, these folks wind up very angry, embittered, confrontational, entitled.
01:17:41And all you need to do is hear Elliot Page speak,
01:17:46and you will hear what is clearly a manipulated voice,
01:17:51a voice that's been so testosterone-ed up,
01:17:55it will never sound female again, but it will never be male either.
01:17:59It's stuck in some in-between that's only deeply disturbing.
01:18:05They think they're being woke and tolerant.1.00
01:18:08What they're actually being is dangerous, dangerous to other young people who have been swept up or are considering getting swept up in this ideology who now see, oh, look, you get celebrated on the cover of New York Magazine for this shit.0.99
01:34:58There were about 10,000 posters, gut privilege, check it, on the walls.
01:35:03It is known for how woke and annoying it is.
01:35:05And this is the same school that she says she sent her her kids there and that they got treated by a bunch of racists like it was a racist school.1.00