00:01:23.320I mean, I think there's an actual chance that she could be stripped of her citizenship and deported.
00:01:31.220Like, this is getting really interesting.
00:01:34.400We've told you about the federal raid on her D.C. residence on Monday, reportedly related to Omar's immigration paperwork.
00:01:41.320Now, that can encompass a number of issues with her.
00:01:44.220There are a bunch of problems, as it appears, with her immigration paperwork.
00:01:50.000She came to the United States at the age of 12 as a refugee from Somalia.
00:01:54.960The New York Times reported yesterday that members of her family, including her sister, have received subpoenas from the Justice Department.
00:02:04.200And it is possible that others were subjected to raids as well.
00:02:11.040We are learning that the feds are also investigating Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures in her role as a congresswoman, which you may recall she's had to restate now a couple of times because the husband, Tim Minette, has this wine business that went from like it made $50,000 in 2023 to suddenly it was up to $30 million within a year.
00:02:36.640And then shortly after that was revealed and she came under scrutiny, she revised the $30 million downward to like $18,000.
00:02:46.180So when the income is controversial, it just disappears.
00:02:50.480They said, oh, well, we added the liabilities to it.
00:02:55.680And it appears all of this may be under the microscope.
00:02:59.060Now, the warrant that was used to go search her D.C. home specifically, at least reportedly, I haven't seen it with my own eyes, references some immigration concern.
00:03:10.740So that would not necessarily be the financial disclosures in any funny business that may or may not have happened there.
00:03:19.140It could have been any one of a number of issues on the immigration front, which some of which we've been going over this week.
00:03:24.640And we've got more information on a few of them.
00:03:28.820Well, the prediction market, Kalshi, over there, there is now a 39% chance of Representative Omar getting charged with a federal crime before the end of 2026.
00:12:47.400OK, so where does all of that leave us now?
00:12:52.880Two weeks and change before a midterm election.
00:12:56.520And what do you make of the Democrats calls that this is lawfare?0.98
00:13:01.780It's using the Justice Department for political purposes within 100 days of an election.
00:13:07.000and that we've, you know, crossed some uncrossed Rubicon, Tom, that we shouldn't have crossed.
00:13:13.220Well, this is, you know, we talked about this on our show yesterday and Carl and I both had
00:13:18.320sort of the same take, which is you can't, there was all this discussion in Trump's first term
00:13:24.260by the Democrats. He's breaking all these norms. He's, you know, he's trampling the Constitution.
00:13:29.540He's doing all these things. And they all lined up and cheered as Biden's Justice Department
00:13:36.240And, you know, Letitia James, Alvin Bragg, Fannie Willis, they all openly stated that they were out to get Trump, that they were going to do whatever they had to do to get Trump, use the legal, use the law against him, tried to ruin him, bankrupt him, bankrupt his family, put him in jail.
00:13:54.100And Democrats cheered at every point along the way.
00:13:57.460So it's hard to take them seriously now, even if you think what the current Justice Department is doing is either wrong or political.
00:14:08.300It's just hard to take it from the Democrats who are all out there now suddenly saying this is, you know, this is a fascist regime.
00:14:13.360This is what authoritarians do. It's like, please just sit down because you have to be consistent.
00:14:19.440You're either in favor of this or you're not.
00:14:20.920I was not in favor of the Biden administration, the Biden Justice Department going after Trump the way they did.
00:14:27.720I thought it was unconscionable. They were making up novel legal theories and cases that had never happened before, never used before to go after Trump.
00:14:36.020And so I am wary of this, particularly for the reasons that you mentioned, Megan, that if it's beyond the statute of limitations, it is within 60 days of an election.
00:14:44.880And so there are there are reasons that this I'm not I don't think this probably should be happening right now.
00:14:51.640If there is a crime that has been committed, I do agree, you know, that if she's if she's guilty of something, then then she should be held accountable for that.
00:15:02.800But we shouldn't be going out of our way to do that either before an election or to try to get her on some sort of technicality that happened, you know, 20 years ago.
00:15:11.540I totally disagree with that. I was against the lawfare.
00:15:14.880That was unleashed by the Biden DOJ. But I think the only way of stopping it is to do it to them, too. I really do. I continue to believe they need to be made to suffer in order to actually get this to end, because if it's just a rhetorical argument, they're not going to just they need to feel the pain.
00:15:28.360And by the way, she shouldn't be reelected if she does if she's not even a legitimate U.S. citizen. Go ahead.0.90
00:15:32.920I agree with that. But but this just goes to the point, Megan. It's like you want this to stop. It's not going to stop. This is it. This is the new normal. The toothpaste is out of the tube and it's not going back in.
00:15:42.920Mm hmm. Yep. We're those are bananas. We're seeing all around us. We're in their republic now. But we didn't start it. I think that those of us on the right who objected to this are just trying to finish it and actually get some skin in the game by the lunatics who cheered this being done to the former president and now president again.
00:22:39.180So when a candidate goes to file to run for an elected office, the state is not verifying U.S. citizenship.
00:22:51.500So as a citizen, if I suspect that a foreign-born candidate has not obtained U.S. citizenship, like I suspect Ilhan Omar has not obtained U.S. citizenship, I can't verify it through the state.
00:23:09.180She just said, they don't verify U.S. citizenship.
00:24:41.820she was too old to be naturalized under her dad's alleged permission slip.
00:24:49.040It only changed on her website in 2019
00:24:52.820after A.J. Kern posted a separate video about all of this.
00:24:57.540And at that point, Omar's staff, according to an email obtained by NewsNation, asked the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library to change the birth year listed on its website from 1981 to 1982, which would have made Omar 17 at the time of her dad's alleged naturalization.
00:25:21.120This stinks, Andy, stinks to high heaven.
00:25:24.980Any one of us could prove in two seconds our citizenship and that we didn't marry a brusband.0.97
00:25:32.840And she has failed to do either of those things since she came under this microscope.
00:25:38.340Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of things about this.
00:25:39.740One is that the raid was the personnel on the raid were Homeland Security personnel were involved in that raid.
00:25:47.420So that led everyone to believe that this must have to do with her immigration status and not with the financial stuff, which you would think would be the more explosive of the two, frankly, given the.
00:26:01.020Or at least they got the warrant based on that.
00:26:03.200It doesn't mean they're not going to go there.
00:26:04.260This part, what you've just outlined, sort of might help explain how they got a warrant, because maybe there's some fraud involved with going to the Minnesota library, the reference library, and trying to get her date changed if that was—and that would have happened in, what, 2019?
00:27:19.160And they've been wanting some accountability for Trump's persecution and what they feel like is their persecution being debanked and so on since the day they voted for Trump.
00:27:30.600And he failed with Comey. He failed with Letitia James. I don't know. To me, I think we got a live wire.
00:27:37.480There's like failed with Fauci. Right.
00:27:40.860You fail with Fauci. Exactly. I'm feeling kind of optimistic about this one. I'm not going to lie.
00:27:47.160There's like, if you can make a RICO case where like she's been defrauding us from day one.0.79
00:28:13.840And then you say, after these multiple frauds that got her into the country and her criminal dad into the country, and possibly her criminal family into the country, what did they do?
00:28:23.740They continued the fraud by fleecing the taxpayers at the federal and state levels with these programs that have come under scrutiny in Minnesota, maybe.
00:28:32.320And look at the husband's tax returns.
00:28:35.880Look at her congressional disclosures about her money.
00:28:38.780Who goes from $51,000 in income one year to $30 million the next year?
00:28:46.460And then when they come under scrutiny saying, how did that happen?
00:29:20.240I think, you know, she has been a very prominent member of the squad who's been very, you know, vocal in her positions and her hatred of Donald Trump.
00:29:31.340And so and I agree with you. I think there are folks on the right who are like, you know, because the mantra is like nobody's above the law. Right. Isn't that what we were told? That was a justification for all this. And now suddenly, you know, if she has committed some sort of fraud or crime, she should be held accountable as as was the same with Comey and Fauci and all these people who who did not pay for their their crimes if they committed those crimes or or at least their deceit and manipulation of the American people.
00:29:58.220And so to me, the whole, I mean, just as you laid that out, if her father, if there's no record of him ever being naturalized in the first place, right, then she has no, right, she has no status here.
00:30:13.780I would think that that would be something that the government, as you mentioned, I mean, it would be kind of dramatic to have her deported, especially if it happened before the election.
00:30:22.980um but she might actually win anyway even though she was you know it'd be like being in prison and
00:30:29.860winning that's happened before people have gotten votes so i don't know it'll be it i agree with you
00:30:35.320i think we're at the beginning of the story not the end we're going to learn a lot more and in
00:30:38.940the course of that learning i think you know we may very well find that she has she has defrauded
00:30:44.120the american people in in a variety of different ways but we'll see a serial she may be a serial0.93
00:30:50.840fraudster. That's what we're going to figure out. I mean, honestly, I don't even know who
00:30:55.140she's running against. Like, I realize she's up 30 plus points and all these Somalis are going to1.00
00:31:00.280vote for her, the ones who are in our country. Well, Megan, that's still like, where's her
00:31:04.760opponent? That's an important point, though, Megan. These districts are so gerrymandered.
00:31:08.300The media up there has been so friendly to her. She hasn't been asked these questions in a way
00:31:12.860that's required her to answer. She was asked about that wine scam. Maybe it's an accounting
00:31:18.400year maybe it's a maybe somebody filled out the form wrong but this 30 million dollar winery that
00:31:23.200then was came from nothing and didn't actually seem to have a brick and mortar didn't even seem
00:31:28.000to sell wine then it went away and she was asked about that by a reporter she's walking down the
00:31:33.140hallway there was on camera and she says she's really start you know flippantly oh why did you
00:31:37.920want to buy a bottle and that's not really the answer to that so i i i would like to get these
00:31:43.360answers these questions but your point the point you're getting at now megan is important one she
00:31:47.660doesn't have real opposition up there the democrats haven't required that she do anything
00:31:51.600congress hasn't required it you heard this woman from the state of minnesota they don't check the
00:31:55.860records she's never had to answer for these things and i it would be a healthier dynamic i think
00:32:01.480trying to deport someone who's been here who's in the united states congress has been in this
00:32:04.820country since they were 12 is ludicrous but i also think it's ludicrous that she's gotta go
00:32:10.020has never been asked she's never been made to answer these questions and i think that these
00:32:13.780are some of them are serious questions that need to be answered she's running against john nagel
00:32:18.840just for if people want to know john nagel he has exactly 26 000 cash on hand in his campaign
00:32:26.600chest right now she has raised a total uh this is according to polling source.com she's raised a
00:32:32.560total of $5.8 million. She has $1.35 million on hand. How much on hand is she going? She's got
00:32:42.3001.3 on hand right now. Because if Trump deports her, she'll take that with her to Somalia.
00:32:47.660Well, she could, I guess. But she's going to win by 25, 30 points easily.
00:32:52.120Let the good times continue to roll, Elon. Yes. So Nagel said to Fox, I think the people of
00:32:57.280Minnesota have been lied to. They've had their money stolen. They want to see somebody that's
00:33:00.900going to come in and fix things. They're tired of being told the same old things. Okay, well,
00:33:04.860that's exciting, but get on it, Nagel. Why is Janine Pirro leading this effort as opposed to0.71
00:33:11.060you from the rooftop screaming, she's not an American. She does not appear to be a valid0.99
00:33:16.600American citizen. That's what old Nagel should be using every $26,000 worth to advertise and say1.00
00:33:24.660in as many pockets as he possibly can. You've got a bit of an assist from President Trump,
00:33:30.000who's not putting his fingerprints on the Jeanine Pirro investigation here,1.00
00:33:33.940but did want us to know that Somalia is not a nice country1.00
00:33:38.620and we might not want people from there in leadership posts.
00:33:43.540That, of course, made a lot of people unhappy.
00:33:45.760Here's what he said the other day, SOP 4.
00:33:47.880Elon, somebody was asked, I don't know what they're doing with it,0.98
00:33:50.680but I can tell you this, she's a disaster.1.00
00:33:53.480She comes in from a country without laws, without police, without military.1.00
00:36:10.700Carl, I'm interested in your take on this because the headlines have been everywhere for weeks.
00:36:16.480The Wall Street Journal is the one that brought her down with an assist from the Daily Mail.
00:36:21.080But my point is, these are not left wing publications. So this was it's it's tough for her to say I was the victim of a left wing smear job.
00:36:30.940And then, of course, she was fired by a Republican president who, you know, she was close with.
00:36:35.900But the president is denying that now. Here's what he said about her after he forced her out of her job on Tuesday.
00:38:32.420But if I were a betting woman, I'd say it probably has Kimberly's fingerprints on it, saying, be careful because there's a burn book and she does know where the bodies are buried.
00:38:46.020And having an unhappy ex-girlfriend at a minimum, maybe ex-fiance, whatever, of Don's running around there with all of that information is not a great position for the Trumps to be in.
00:42:03.920I asked AI, can Kimberly Guilfoyle write?
00:42:07.500And AI says, yes, Kimberly Guilfoyle is a published author and writer.
00:42:11.940She holds a Juris Doctor degree and has written professionally throughout her career as a prosecutor, legal analyst, and media personality.
00:42:18.080Her most notable published work is her 2015 advice and advocacy book.
00:42:22.460So I think $2 million for the manuscript makes sense.
00:45:54.020I mean, that first journal report, he gave them everything. And so it's hard to refute that. And I guess the lesson is, you know, and the reason he did that is because he allegedly paid her something like $300,000 and he didn't get anything for it.
00:46:10.940There was, it was, you know, she did not hold up her end of the payola bargain, I guess.
00:46:17.480And so he went to the journal, he gave him all these texts and everything.
00:46:19.800And that set off, you know, it is interesting.
00:46:23.240The most interesting thing about this is where the other leaks came from.
00:46:26.600As soon as that first journal report started, then there were these other leaks about all
00:46:30.720the stuff that was going on in Europe and Greece.
00:46:34.980So there were definitely people who used that as an impetus to pull out the knives.
00:46:38.780And and ultimately they got her. And so she's it's going to be interesting to see how she responds and how and if the Trumps can somehow keep her from going completely nuclear, which, to your point, Megan, she might be willing to do.
00:46:54.720And and it might not be particularly in advance of election where there's talk of, you know, corruption and all this stuff.
00:47:03.160It wouldn't be it would not be a good series of events for for Trump or the Republican Party, quite frankly, if she were to do that in the next couple of weeks.
00:47:11.900Well, that's reportedly why they turfed her, Carl, because we have three weeks to go until the election.
00:47:17.160And this was not a good story for Team Trump at all.
00:47:20.900And the journal was not letting up and it was spreading.
00:47:23.520The Daily Mail was doing its own exclusives by the time she got fired on different angles of the story.
00:47:30.340And what's being reported today is that the Trump administration, Trump himself, said this is these are not good facts for us out there.
00:47:37.340I don't want people thinking about a corrupt team member out there grifting off of effectively the American taxpayer because we're the ones who put her in this position instead of just doing the people's business, you know, within weeks of the midterms.
00:47:53.520Like, I don't know. None of this is good for me. And that he also reportedly did not appreciate her trying to make money off of the Trump presidency.
00:48:00.060Only he gets to do that. Yeah. Well, that's the that's the part that doesn't it's cognitive dissonance.
00:48:06.140I mean, so she's she gets one hundred thousand dollar Amex bill paid, but Trump and his sons make billions on crypto and real estate deals.
00:48:15.380And but your point, Megan, he wanted to make that all go away. He didn't want this conversation.
00:48:20.200The thinking was, let's just, and they made it really pretty quickly.0.97
00:48:26.080They gave her some tepid praise publicly, thanked her for her service, and hoped it would go away.
00:48:30.700I don't know whether the story is going away because there are certain elements of the legacy media that doesn't seem to really love Donald Trump.
00:50:00.940If I was such a cash-strapped millionaire, then how come I have never had to pay one single person, one nickel, in any litigation-type expense?
00:50:12.420But I can tell you who's not fine, Kimberly Guilfoyle.
00:50:14.800And by the way, I've communicated with the Trump administration today and I told them and I let them know I'm going to be suing them for defamation and the story is not going to go away.
00:50:26.100Who do you talk to in the Trump administration?
00:50:28.500I sent an email to Don Jr. and Susie Wiles, who I have plenty of other times in the past.
00:55:47.180She said something that was odd because she was asked these questions and then she said about Trump in the First Amendment, banning the reporters from the pool and stuff.
00:55:57.800And she said, if you want to do things in secret, why don't you just leave the White House?
00:56:47.180oh just to get it no no you're not getting out of here we have to know this you know people want
00:56:55.740to know are we going to get another moment i haven't decided i haven't decided yet i will
00:57:00.080i promise okay we'll be waiting to hear the midterms and the midterms the midterms okay
00:57:05.520the midterms 28 don't matter if we don't do 26 right that's right in front of us yeah focus on
00:57:13.160the present please meanwhile kiki's like what's happening in 26 well it was a moment of journalism
00:57:22.380it was at least some journalism there that was the question that she needed to be asked
00:57:27.360are you running for president what kamala harris has to do she's got to go to people1.00
00:57:31.500dumber than she is so that she can feel smart and that the at least one person in the room thinks1.00
00:57:37.180she's smart and she can be like this mother earth you know like mama law like drew barrymore called1.00
00:57:42.820Or, you know, this is this is what she wants to do. But you tell me, Tom, you tell me, why is she sitting down with a black woman who's got a largely black female audience trying to shore up support if she's not thinking about running for president?
00:57:55.520Well, she's definitely thinking about running for president. I don't think there's any question about that. And, you know, South Carolina's first. Black women are a big part of the overall Democratic constituency, but particularly in that state, being the first Democratic primary.
00:58:12.920So she presents a problem if she does run. I mean, Gavin Newsom already said he's not going to run if she does.
00:58:20.240But you look at the other candidates that are there. The problem is, Megan, that everybody knows that she sucks as a candidate.1.00
00:58:27.780She's not very good. And, you know, she didn't even make it to the starting line in 2020 when she ran the Dem primary.0.99
00:58:34.240She got a good look. You remember she had the debate moment with Biden saying that little girl, you know, is me.
00:58:38.960And then she was selling T-shirts. And and but from that point on, it was all downhill until she was out of the race.
00:58:45.000And then when she was vice president, she went through like, I don't know, 10 different reboots.
00:58:49.180They were constantly trying to, like, reboot her image and get her some because she was just failing.0.61
00:58:55.300And then and nasty. All her staff was leaving. It was a Markle situation.
00:58:59.480She had a lot of turnover. Yeah. And then she gets the she gets basically anointed when Biden drops out and she runs a hundred and seven day campaign.0.83
00:59:08.960where she spent over a billion dollars and she loses to Trump. And, you know, people say, well,
00:59:14.660if she only had more time. No, it's the exact opposite. Her favorability ratings peaked like
00:59:19.300two weeks after she was in the early part of September, right after she was Biden dropped
00:59:25.140out, I think on July 21st. And from that point on, the more she was exposed and she didn't even
00:59:30.760she didn't have any press conferences. She got softball questions she couldn't answer.
00:59:34.620The longer she was out there, the more that she was exposed to the public, the worse it was for her.
00:59:39.600And so everybody knows that, but they're not really willing to say it.
00:59:43.140They're waiting for her. And eventually, you know, she's going to be if she does run, she'll probably do well in South Carolina.
00:59:50.640But then beyond that, we'll see how it goes. And I think that's why this race is so, so wide open, whether she runs or whether she doesn't run.
00:59:57.920In her case, familiarity breeds contempt. There is a big article in yesterday's Politico,
01:00:05.980Carl, the title of which is She Totally Blew It, How Kamala Harris Wasted a Year to Make Her Case.0.85
01:00:14.040Harris has offered voters almost nothing in the way of specifics about how she would remake a0.99
01:00:17.880Democratic Party hungry for change after another term of Donald Trump. And it goes on to cite a
01:00:23.560bunch of Democratic strategists and donors by name this time. You know, for a long time we've
01:00:29.700had anonymous Dems diss her in the press, but now you're getting actual donors and strategists by1.00
01:00:36.880name on the record in Politico saying, like this one, she totally blew it. She hasn't gotten into0.53
01:00:42.760the mix. That was Doug Herman, a lead male strategist for Barack Obama's campaigns. Then
01:00:50.260you've got, oh, listen to this. Okay. So there's plenty of other examples of them like specifically
01:00:54.480saying, here's one. I'm looking at all kinds of candidates for 2028 and she's not necessarily0.89
01:00:59.780one of them, said Lori Black, a San Diego-based donor, a longtime Harris supporter. It's not that
01:01:04.800I don't think she's qualified, but I want to support a winner in 2028. And I just don't know
01:01:09.140if the vice president has the juice. Another California-based fundraiser could not think
01:01:14.000of a single person in their circle who wants Harris to run again. She has good lists, etc.,0.99
01:01:20.340but there are no obvious big donors that have indicated they want to go down that road.
01:01:25.180Perhaps worse for Harris, writes Politico, is not that strategists and donors are down on her
01:01:29.3002028 chances, but that they're not talking about her at all. The discourse about her among other
01:01:35.5002028 hopefuls and plugged-in donors has been practically silent, a sign that few believe she
01:01:40.240will actually jump into the race, let alone prove to be a threat. And this is on top of seeing a
01:01:46.540leak earlier this week that her husband, Doug Emhoff, doesn't want her to run. No one wants
01:01:52.680Kamala Harris to run other than Kiki. What's happening in 2026? What that tells me, Megan,0.98
01:02:00.640she doesn't need money to run the way these other candidates do. Her name ID is 100%.0.99
01:02:07.260As Tom pointed out, the first Democratic primaries in South Carolina, she would be hard to beat there.0.79
01:02:12.520These people are not coming out against her because they don't think she can get the nomination.
01:02:16.720They're coming out against her because they think she will would get the nomination and then lose in the general election to J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio or some other Republican.
01:02:25.560They're worried that she won't she wouldn't be a winning general election candidate.
01:02:29.980They're worried that she will be nominated.
01:02:32.600So that I think that's the way at least that's the way I look at it.
01:02:35.460And in terms of Gavin Newsom, these guys, you weren't there, Megan.
01:02:40.680These two guys beat the crap out of me for days after Newsom told Jake Tapper he wouldn't run if she runs.
01:02:50.140But I sure like somebody to maybe Newsom knows something.
01:05:50.840Darlene Graham's holding on by a thread.
01:05:53.440So, yeah, I think when you look at that and you look at the polls, it's still worth it to look at the polls.
01:05:59.020It's not looking good for the Republicans right now.
01:06:02.480You know, Megan, I posted about this the other day because I was working on the website, updating the website.
01:06:08.180And the headlines have just been terrible, right, for the GOP.
01:06:14.540And I had another one today. Inflation was up, right?
01:06:17.400And the last report we're going to get before the election, there was other polling about Latinos and on and on and on.
01:06:24.280And I got a lot of blowback online from exactly in the exact vein that you talk about.
01:06:31.380Oh, this is an op. The media is, you know, trying to depress, you know, turn out.
01:06:35.700The polls are all bullshit. They're all fake, which I mean, honestly, even if you look at the polls, I mean, I think we were just talking about this earlier.0.99
01:06:43.540I think Trafalgar has a poll out and Insider Advantage both came out with polls showing what was it, Tallarico up in Texas or something like that.
01:06:51.640Those are Republican leaning. Yeah. Republican leaning pollsters. But but even if you take you, you, you, you agree, OK, that the polls are wrong or that the media is biased against Republicans.
01:07:05.620Trump is not going to Texas and Ohio and Alaska and Nebraska because, you know, the media is bullshit stories from the media or fake polls.
01:07:17.700Republicans are not spending money in South Carolina, 8 million in Nebraska, 15 million in Iowa, pulling money out of North Carolina, out of Georgia, out of a lot of these House races.
01:07:28.160That is not all happening because of some psyop that somebody's running against them.
01:07:33.200That is happening because, as you point out, look, the two most important resources that the party has is time and money.
01:07:41.580And all of those things, you want to know what's going on in a race, you follow the time and the money of the candidates.
01:07:46.960And right now, that is all Republicans pouring money into trying to shore up these red states so they don't get washed away in a blue wave.
01:07:55.160And maybe it's going to work and maybe it'll keep losses down, particularly in the Senate, so that Republicans will hold the Senate.
01:08:01.380But if they weren't doing that, there's a chance that, you know, and there may still be a chance that the wave is big enough and it breaches those those firewalls and Republicans end up losing the Senate.
01:08:12.140But that's where the race is right now, regardless of, you know, all the stuff about the media and the polls.
01:08:16.940Well, Megan, forget the PSYOP rap, because that's just kind of crazy.
01:08:21.560But Trump has under-polled every time he's run.
01:12:16.920One of the debates that happened last night was in Iowa.
01:12:20.440And Ashley Hinson came out, distanced herself from President Trump on the diesel deal.
01:12:24.700She said, look, we need to lower diesel prices, but doing a deal with Putin is not the way to go about it.
01:12:29.720But Turek's response to her was, well, the problem with diesel prices is that your president started a war in the Middle East, another forever war, and you voted seven times in the House not to put any constraints on him.
01:12:44.020And that's fairly – first of all, it's a policy-based argument.
01:12:50.620And second of all, I think it has traction.
01:12:52.120I think I think that is a legitimate case to be made.
01:12:55.700And so Republicans are in really difficult spots in all these races because of the economy, inflation, gas prices and the president and some of the choices that this president has made over the last two years.
01:13:09.100Mm hmm. Yeah. I mean, I think most of us think about that war when we go to fill up our tank with diesel fuel or gasoline.
01:13:16.700I always say diesel gas in my audience.
01:13:18.440You don't have an electric car, Megan?
01:13:19.740You haven't read a whole book on diesel, which he did.
01:13:31.100Anyway, I want to keep going because Harry Enten had some thoughts, though, that I thought this is legit and actually a genuine glimmer of hope for Republicans.
01:13:41.500Not bullshit glimmer, but actual glimmer.
01:13:45.820we've had really good democratic polls coming out from ohio michigan iowa and you know fool me once
01:13:53.800shame on you fool me four times i just have to ask the question could it happen again because
01:13:59.000just take a look at this okay midwest polling misses gop outperformed september polls by in
01:14:04.240the major 2024 races that is president and senate in the states that had a senate race in iowa where
01:14:09.140the democrats have been getting really good polls republicans outperformed their september polls by
01:14:13.040nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I
01:14:18.820will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much
01:14:24.640the GOP outperformed back in 2024. So you look at this and you go, you know what? Maybe we should
01:14:30.240just hold on a second here because we've seen this dance before and it was not a dance that
01:14:35.600Democrats like when the votes were actually cast in count. Fair point. No, no. You're saying no.
01:14:42.380It's not apples to apples. It was 2024. Trump was on the ballot. I mean, that's the whole point. If you want to make a comparison, it's got to be to 2018. Republicans lost 40 House seats in that race, but they did pick up two Senate seats. That's sort of the analog here. You can't compare a presidential election year to a midterm year and say, well, you know, they overperformed because Trump was on the ballot and because people had-
01:15:07.180OK, but wait, Harry Enten was ready for you.
01:15:10.080He took a look at when Trump was not on the ballot in previous midterms.
01:15:15.040Let's hear what the analysis was there.
01:15:16.960So at 16, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans have outperformed their
01:15:24.860September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right
01:15:29.900now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September
01:15:35.360polls again it could become very very interesting okay now overlay this on the current senate map
01:15:41.280exactly right so this is where it all kind of comes together right okay let's just say that
01:15:46.560the gop outperforms their midwest polls like they did in 2018 and 2024 well what do you get you get
01:15:52.000a red michigan you get a red ohio you get a red iowa and all of a sudden even if democrats carry
01:15:58.160states like texas georgia north carolina and alaska well guess what you get you get a 50 50 senate
01:16:03.760with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.
01:16:07.700So if history holds in terms of the GOP
01:16:23.240Well, I have one thought that I'd say,
01:16:25.780and that is, you guys, you mentioned the Iran war
01:16:29.800and how that's affecting gasoline prices
01:16:32.020and public perceptions of the president.
01:16:33.760Because it's precisely the kind of thing he said he wouldn't do.
01:16:36.680But when I, at these rallies in places that we didn't think were competitive, Nebraska, Iowa, especially Kansas, people are like, they heckled Roger Marshall at his debate with Adam Hamilton.
01:16:51.260And they talked about tariffs and these farm states and these northern tier border states, I'm talking about Maine and Michigan, but also these farm states, they're laying people off because of Trump's tariffs.
01:17:03.300in Canada has retaliated against the United States. So has China. And if you have a president
01:17:08.300whose policies are hurting you, and you voted for him, and you didn't see it coming. Now,
01:17:14.240he talked about tariffs in the campaign. But I think that I think it's harder. I think,
01:17:19.660Megan, I think it's harder to ignore these polls this year, because this is not personality.
01:17:24.440Everybody knows how they feel about Trump personally. This is about they don't like
01:17:28.560his policies anymore. And that's, to me, a difference. The other thing is that, you know,
01:17:33.960you have to remember where we were in the spring when we were talking about these Senate races. I
01:17:37.660mean, the idea was that the map so favored the Republicans that the Republicans would easily
01:17:42.500hold the Senate. That was sort of the narrative in the spring. So, for someone to come out and
01:17:46.840say, oh, you know, they're going to hold it, you know, 50-50, and they've still got Vice President
01:17:51.460Vance, that's really the best news for Republicans right now? That's not the happy story that they
01:17:57.940were hoping for. So what do you think is going to happen, Andy? Do you, like, if you had to
01:18:02.320predict, I won't hold you to it, but like right now, do you think, do you think both the House
01:18:07.340and the Senate are probably gone? I would, if I had to, if you had a gun to my head, I would say
01:18:11.700yes. I would say yes. I think that. How about you, Carl? I try not to make predictions, but if I was0.96
01:18:18.320making a bet, that's not quite a prediction. I would, I would bet that the Republicans pick up
01:18:23.140the seats they need to control the Senate and the House has been gone for some time. How about you,
01:18:27.140Tom. Yeah, I think best case scenario in the Senate is 50-50, and it might get worse than that.
01:18:33.360I mean, there's still a couple of weeks left, but like you look at these, you look at these
01:18:36.560polls and look, I will concede the point, although we talked about it earlier. I mean,
01:18:41.240you know, if you look at the pollsters, we're talking about Trafalgar, Insider Advantage,
01:18:47.440Rasmussen. These are not Democratic leaning pollsters. These are guys who actually
01:18:53.480got it wrong in 2018, more wrong than they did. They were right in 2020. They were right in 2024.
01:19:00.080They were kind of off in 2018 because they were projecting a more Republican electorate than what
01:19:06.780turned out that year. But these races are close. I mean, Tallarico is up two and a half points. I
01:19:13.160think, you know, Turek's up like less than a point in Iowa. These are definitely races where
01:19:21.220if the Republicans overperform their polls or the polls are under estimating Republican turnout
01:19:26.080that you could see, you know, and the polls have margin of error. So it's not like it's not like
01:19:32.560it's impossible that Republicans would would hold the Senate. There have been some people saying
01:19:36.960they're going to pick up seats. I don't think that that doesn't seem very likely to me at all.
01:19:42.800But it is a weird year. We were talking about this earlier. I mean, you've got you mentioned
01:19:45.700Minnesota where, you know, somehow that race is a couple of points. New Hampshire somehow.
01:19:50.540Because she's so likable. Michelle Tafoya is so likable. And she they all know her. She's famous. She's kind of like a Carrie Lake in that the locals know her. They've been seeing her face on TV as a very famous sportscaster. People like me don't know her because we don't watch sports. But everybody who watches sports knows Michelle Tafoya. And she's so cool. She's a great. And Peggy Flangen is a fucking nutcase. Sorry. Forgive me. Keep going.0.64
01:20:13.560Well, not only is she a nutcase, she's a left winger. She's not moderating at all. And she's tied to an administration that presided over a bunch of fraud. So you've got particular circumstances that are maybe making that race a little bit closer than it might otherwise be. But New Hampshire is closer than I think people thought, especially given where some of these other races are.1.00
01:20:32.460So but, yeah, Republicans, they're playing defense. And they're to your point, Megan, when you look at sort of the overall picture, is there any reason Democrats are still 100 percent running the Trump playbook?
01:20:45.100They are foaming at the mouth once again to turn out against Trump, even though in the Senate, you know, two thirds of these terms are going to be decided, you know, are going to take place after Trump even leaves office.
01:20:55.940But nevertheless, they're running against Trump and they're all excited, enthusiasm.
01:20:59.780And on the Republican side, you've got you've got Republicans that are, you know, they're a little bit dispirited.
01:21:04.320They're a little down. You know, the Rand war has divided or dampened enthusiasm for some of the rights.
01:21:09.740So it's it's just kind of a perfect storm against Republicans.
01:21:13.180You got some candidate quality issues on Team DOP, too.
01:21:16.260Like I realized they thought Cornyn was too swampy, but Paxton is a mess.
01:22:15.700I guess the other thing that I'd say is that, just to defend my pessimistic view for the Republicans, is that you have three weeks left, right?
01:22:40.540Nothing is going to change on the war front.
01:22:42.080And the White House continues to every week surprise us with stories that have nothing to do with the economy or that show that they, you know, give a damn about sort of affordability.
01:22:54.900So you can just, if you were going to straight line the future and you'd say, what's going to happen out of the White House in the next, between now and the election?
01:23:02.820You can't predict what it's going to be, but it's not going to be good.
01:23:35.040And that if we don't think that we're racist and sexist and bigoted against gay people.
01:23:38.640Um, so I'm going to give this gal a chance. However, day two, there's another news story
01:23:45.140about her. That's not great. Apparently she did graduate from Pepperdine undergrad and Pepperdine
01:23:51.740law school, but you are not actually a lawyer until you've passed the bar exam. You may have
01:23:58.320a JD, um, but you're not actually a lawyer until you pass the bar exam. And I guess she worked,0.59
01:24:05.700she said she held herself out as the general counsel of a nonprofit run by Rick Grinnell in
01:24:12.740California. And yet she has apparently not passed the bar except in China. So one of the members,
01:24:24.760I mean, like, of course that doesn't count here. Like you, hello. So here, somebody asked her
01:24:31.880about this on two, on, um, yesterday, Tuesday, SOC 22. So she's not practicing law at the
01:24:56.700press secretary lectern. But it's a crime to say that you're to practice law without having passed
01:25:06.000the bar. So if, in fact, she was acting as general counsel for this nonprofit, there could be some
01:25:11.060trouble there. But here we are on day two and she's getting, you know, the colonoscopy that
01:25:16.640no Democrat press secretary has ever gotten, Tom Bevin. And I'm sure they're not done with her.
01:25:23.180uh no they're not done with her and we'll see i mean i look i did the website this morning it was
01:25:29.940like looking for stories and combing through stories there was not a single positive story
01:25:33.100on her anywhere i mean i couldn't find it um it wasn't a great start and i like you megan i mean
01:25:40.220this is the toughest job it is hard uh and you know caroline levitt actually made it look pretty
01:25:46.560easy and so i think she struggles it's hard to follow caroline yeah it struggles in comparison
01:25:52.280to Caroline. And to your point, I agree. I think Karine Jean-Pierre was one of the worst
01:25:59.580press secretaries that I've certainly ever seen. Carl goes much further back with some of these
01:26:05.500individuals. But I think it shows that she wasn't vetted. I'd never even heard her name. She wasn't
01:26:13.700on any list that I had seen. Where did she come from? Me neither. Mark Halperin. Did you see Mark
01:26:18.900Calprin's tweet today. He tweeted out, I think it was least vetted of any major administration
01:26:26.500official ever. Perhaps. And that clip you just played showed it. Trump kind of turned around
01:26:32.540like he didn't know. And she was like, China. And he was kind of like, OK, let's wrap this up and
01:26:37.240move along. Well, they not. Also, they didn't prepare for it. Not only did not bet it, the
01:26:43.600whole thing had a slapdash quality to it, like they'd given her 45 minutes notice. Now, Susan
01:26:48.840crabtree who you know megan she's she lives in southern california covers national politics for0.99
01:26:54.020she she knew katie um sakaria but she you know she's just she wasn't a presence in washington
01:26:59.880and she looked um she looked nervous i mean just to use the obvious word but also they have her
01:27:07.160reading this script that's just absurd and and you know trump trump's ended trump's one day war
01:27:14.200that he ended it you know i presume they mean venezuela and you know saying all the things
01:27:18.540that trump said if he was willing to give that job to a fully developed political person with savvy
01:27:24.560like uh scott um jennings jennings jennings on cnn you know scott would say well i'm not going to
01:27:31.600say this i'll give the president credit but i'm not gonna this this fawning silly stuff is doesn't
01:27:36.440help you sir but she doesn't have the stature to do that and so she just sort of reads this thing0.99
01:27:41.180And then realize she's in over her head and bails. And I felt for her. I don't really blame her. I don't think she was prepared. I think she was set up to fail. And I don't think it's almost cruel.
01:27:53.220Here's what I think, though. I think Trump, there's no one better at assessing talent
01:27:57.140on television than Trump. Like he is a very effective judge of it. And so I think he's
01:28:03.240seen something in her behind the scenes that he thinks is promising, which is why I think just
01:28:08.800hold your fire. You know, like, let's see if she can do it. He is a very good judge of that kind0.86
01:28:13.540of thing. No one ever heard of Caroline Levitt either. No one knew who Caroline Levitt was. It
01:28:17.300was like, isn't she the girl who does like some tweets for his campaign? She wasn't a star. She
01:28:21.720wasn't somebody we were all like, oh yeah. Um, and she, she was a start now she had a much better
01:28:26.840start than this gal did, but it's early. Like I I'm going to wait and see. And the more negative
01:28:32.740articles they write about her on, it's not great if she practiced law without a, without a license,1.00
01:28:37.120that's, that's a problem. Um, it's not exactly relevant to whether she can be the press secretary,0.88
01:28:41.840but the more they pile on her on the left wing media, the more I'm rooting for her. Um, that's1.00
01:28:46.800just the way it works. I think for most people who lean right. So we'll see, we'll see. All right.
01:28:51.060Last but not least, can anyone tell me who Jamie West is?
01:29:30.100And our last question of the night is, if elected, what is one decision that you expect to make that may be unpopular with some voters, but you believe ultimately would be in the best interest of Fayette County?
01:31:32.800she's like a like a super partisan shit-faced forrest gump0.99
01:31:39.380that's all i have to say about that the best is the moderator all right okay having to keep a0.99
01:31:48.920straight face across from that that that's like the the drunk parody that i will sometimes do
01:31:55.740fire all republicans i don't even want to talk to them i don't like them0.96
01:32:01.740y'all did this to us you did this to us0.99
01:32:05.380oh man she's comically bigoted megan but she's also dangerous we have guns too that's a very0.99
01:32:15.420ominous thing for a drunk to say so do we do we feel that this is the end of her campaign guys0.95
01:32:25.000Just based on your experience as political pundits, I'm going to go ahead and say if she got this far, she's probably going to all the way.0.98
01:32:32.300I think the Democrats are cleaner and running for Senate.0.96